tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16349228145167506402024-03-14T03:28:29.047-04:00Yoooooour New England Patriots!News, ideas, thoughts, game breakdowns, in-depth statistics, and a whole lot of passion about the New England Patriots from a 30+ year season ticket holder. (Note: even this blog is done in official Patriots colors!)Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.comBlogger476125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-83569439452425538562022-04-27T14:58:00.000-04:002022-04-27T14:58:01.076-04:00Patriots 2022 Off-season, Part 1<p><span style="font-family: arial;">Hello all,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots were quiet in free agency this year, especially contrasted with their blockbuster 2021 haul. (I think they spent $250 million on free agents last year.) There were some losses, some new faces, some players who decided to return, and a few still in unsigned limbo.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">And despite what you've heard, they haven't gotten worse. Other division teams have traded for splashy receivers (Tyreek Hill) or signed defensive studs (Von Miller). But the Patriots are better than last year, even when you consider the free agents who left.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I won't go over every signing, there's plenty online if you want details on all of it. What I will do is look at the totality of additions and subtractions with an eye toward how they might change how the team will be constructed and how things will look different when the season beings.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Offense</span></b></p><p><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Comings & Goings:</span></u></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The team traded <b>offensive lineman</b> Shaq Mason and let center Ted Karras go, so they are left with three good players and one mediocre one (Isaiah Wynn) to fill four positions. Michael Onwenu was a backup last year, but was a top-rated O-linemen in Pro Football Focus' rankings, so he should be fine.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">At <b>running back</b>, the departure of Brandon Bolden is easily offset by the return of James White. White's injury was a huge loss last year, especially as an outlet receiver for rookie quarterback Mac Jones. If White stays healthy, that group won't miss a beat. However, they don't have anyone to replace him if he does go down for any significant amount of time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(BTW, full back Jakob Johnson's loss is not a loss. He didn't play well last year, and can likely be replaced by a back with good enough hands to be a potential threat out of the backfield -- something missing since James Develin left a few years back.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Perhaps their highest level addition was at receiver, where longtime Dolphins starter DeVonte Parker was acquired in a trade. He is a big body who will fight for every throw and every yard after the catch, and he's a good blocker in the running game. He allows the rest of the receivers to slide down a notch, putting them in better position against lesser corners.</span></p><p><u><span style="font-family: arial;">How It All Fits Together:</span></u></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">With White coming back, expect the Pats to run more four- and five-receiver sets. Bolden was decent in relief of White, but he will never be as good as "sweet feet." Going four-wide with White in the backfield is the Patriots best alignment, so expect to see a lot of it this season.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Jakobi Meyers is currently unsigned, but he's a restricted free agent who I believe will be back. That would give them Meyers, Parker, and Nelson Agholor at receiver, with Hunter Henry at tight end and White in the backfield.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If they can protect Jones as they did in the second half of 2021, they should be in excellent shape on offense.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>Draft Expectations:</u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">With an eye toward protecting the QB, watch for the Pats to take one or two offensive linemen in this weekend's draft. In fact, they could grab one with their first-round pick. Aside from that, they could take a faster wideout if the right one is available.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Defense</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>Comings & Goings:</u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">J.C. Jackson's departure to the LA Chargers is easily the biggest loss of the off-season. He wasn't a shutdown corner, but he was by far the team's best, and they will miss him. They brought in corners Terrance Mitchell and local hero Malcolm Butler, along with safety Jabrill Peppers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">They traded off linebacker Chase Winovich and added Mack Wilson (from Cleveland). And at the moment, Dont'a Hightower</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> and Jamie Collins are unsigned -- and honestly I don't see either of them coming back.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>How It All Fits Together:</u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Given how the AFC has changed this off-season, with multiple teams adding huge offensive talent (Denver, Miami, Las Vegas, Cleveland... the list goes on and on), here is what I expect from the Patriots.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">They will face multiple mobile quarterbacks this year: Buffalo and Miami twice, Cleveland (Deshaun Watson), Green Bay, Baltimore, and Arizona. Additionally, if they expect to go anywhere in the playoffs, they'll likely have to face Denver (Russell Wilson) and/or Kansas City (Patrick Mahomes).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Given all that, I expect the team will play vastly more zone defense than man-to-man. Their recent runs of success were all based on man-defense. But it requires that your defenders turn their backs to the quarterback, and as we saw with Josh Allen specifically, they will <b>kill</b> you with their legs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The key to playing zone is getting to the quarterback quickly. So I expect a 4-3-4 (or even a 4-2-5) alignment, with two huge dudes inside and two speed-burners on the edge who will be empowered to race to the QB. Their depth at corner, rather than being top-heavy on shutdown guys, also indicates this change.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">To pull that off they need speed at linebacker, and frankly they don't have much. Matt Judon and Josh Uche were their quickest LBs last year, with Hightower and Ja'Whaun Bentley the slower bangers inside.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>Draft Expectations:</u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">To make zone work, they'll need more speed at linebacker, so I expect they will draft one or two of them this weekend. They will likely go after corners, too, but those could come undrafted, as quantity will be important. (Quality is great, but I'd expect them to work the LB angle for quality and just throw bodies at corner.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Special Teams</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>Comings & Goings:</u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Gone are return man Gunner Olszewski, coverage guy Brandon King, and special teamer Brandon Bolden. Free agent signee WR Ty Montgomery could return kicks, but it'll be tough to replace King in coverage. In my opinion he was as good as Matthew Slater and Justin Bethel, even though Slater gets the accolades.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>How It All Fits Together:</u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I expect special teams to be better simply because last year was Cameron Achord's first as a special teams coordinator, so he should improve. Remember, for all the praise Joe Judge got as a special teams coach here, he wasn't good his first year. He replaced Scott O'Brien that year and the drop-off was noticeable.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">So just as Judge improved, expect improvement from Achord, too. Hell, if he can just keep Nick Folk on-task and get Jake Bailey back to his rookie punting averages the team would be much improved right there!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>Draft Expectations:</u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The team has too many holes on O and D to spend any draft capital on special teams.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Coaching</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>Comings & Goings:</u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Josh McDaniels took a head coaching job in Las Vegas, and he took wide receivers coach Mick Lombardi and offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo with him.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There are also rumors that longtime running backs coach Ivan Fears will retire, although nothing official has come out yet.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">In response to the massive loss of McDaniels, the Patriots brought back Joe Judge to run help on offense and declined to name an OC. They also don't have an official DC for the second consecutive year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>How It All Fits Together:</u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Honestly, it doesn't. Judge has worked very little with offensive players, and reportedly when he did, players called him out for not knowing as much as <b>they</b> did. If Fears leaves, they will be woefully under-experienced on the offensive coaching side of things.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">On defense, it's like Bill Belichick doesn't want to promote the obvious leader, Jerod Mayo, because two of his sons are in line for the DC position. If either of the kids has shown anything, they'd have the job. So the fact that they don't have the title shows you they aren't progressing they way they need to.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Remember that in the past when OCs or DCs left the team often struggled the next year. The only exception I can think of is when Matt Patricia left and Brian Flores got more out of the defense and they won the Super Bowl.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But when Eric Mangini left, downturn. When Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis left, it took years to rebuild their knowledge base. So don't expect much in the way of great coaching to overcome a talent gap -- not this year, at least.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If I'm being forthright, I'd say the Patriots are using 2022 to build for 2023 and beyond. They see the landscape and have to know that their talent can't match up with Kansas City or Buffalo. And if the Wilson signing in Denver works well it's another team they'd be chasing.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">So this feels like another year of the build-up to true contender status. Jones will improve, the offensive talent is better, and special teams should be better. But the defense is in transition, having lost Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson in one calendar year. The move to zone-D won't be seamless, but it's their best move given the teams they face.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It's possible they will be better than last year and end up with a worse record. But I don't see them contending for a Super Bowl berth this season, not unless there are injuries to opposing QBs and the post-season schedule falls just right for them.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It'll be entertaining, it always is. But I'm not reserving a room in Glendale.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 0-0!</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-54185979105644102172022-01-26T23:27:00.002-05:002022-01-26T23:27:57.046-05:00Patriots 2021 Regular Season Awards<p><span style="font-family: arial;">After the previous week's abrupt end to the playoff "run," this past weekend's action made it clear the Patriots simply didn't belong with the AFC heavy hitters.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">However, that doesn't mean 2021 was without value or accomplishments. Here are my thoughts on the best players, most improved players, and best newcomers in all three phases of the game.</span></p><p><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Offense</span></u></b></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Most Valuable Offensive Player: Damien Harris</span></b></p><p><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Honorable Mention: Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Trent Brown</span></i></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Harris and Stevenson split being the featured back, depending mostly on Harris' health. But despite missing time, Harris ran for 929 yards and a 4.6ypc average, notching 15 touchdowns and a total of 59 first downs (4 receiving).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The rookie Stevenson played in 12 games and totaled 606 yards 4.6ypc (exactly the average same as Harris), and got 36 first downs of his own. The impressive thing is that he picked up the blocking schemes well enough to get on the field, and his running was impressive once he got playing time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Jones took over the most difficult position on the field as a rookie and was by-and-large impressive. His command of the offense was better than veteran Cam Newton's, he shrugged off bad plays well enough to keep his team in most games, and he had the second-highest completion percentage of any rookie in NFL history with 67.6%. (Trivia question: which rookie QB had the highest rate at 67.8%? Answer below.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">As for Brown, the offensive line was a mess when he was injured and was between adequate and dominant when he returned. He wasn't perfect and had a few untimely penalties. But with a rookie QB learning the NFL ropes, the last thing you need is a leaky offensive line to compound his troubles.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Most Improved Offensive Player: Jakobi Meyers</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Honorable Mention: Brandon Bolden and Michael Onwenu</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Meyers was Newton's only reliable target most of last year, yet even with the free-agent offensive weapons (see the next category), Jakobi improved plenty. He went from 59 catches and 729 yards to 83 catches and 866. He had his first pro touchdown catch, after an NFL-record drought to start his career, and was responsible for 42 first downs. The only place he fell back was as a passer, since neither of his two completions went for touchdowns this year :D</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Bolden stepped in for James White, who was injured, and had his most rushing yards (226) and first downs (12) since 2013. He showed that with enough playing time he could be a decent fill-in for White, though never up to White's standards.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Onwenu doubled his starts from 8 to 16 this year, and he was one of Pro Football Focus' (PFF) highest rated offensive linemen, even though he rarely got a mention in broadcasts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Offensive Newcomer of the Year: Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Honorable Mention: Jones and Stevenson</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Bourne became the Patriots lone deep threat, catching 55 passes for 800 yards (14.6ypc), scoring 5 touchdowns, and totaling 10 plays of over 20 yards and 5 plays over 40. He also ran 12 times for an average of over 10ypc, and he made nary a mistake in route-running or blocking.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Henry was the best red zone receiving threat the team had most of the year. He got a first down 34 times on 50 catches and scored 9 touchdowns through the air, far and away the best of any receiver. In fact, the rest of the team had just 13 receiving touchdowns, which shows you how important Henry was.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Jones and Stevenson for the reasons mentioned earlier.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Defense</u></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Most Valuable Defensive Player: J. C. Jackson</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Honorable Mention: Mat Judon</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Jackson has more interceptions than any other NFL player since he entered the league. An undrafted player, he is poised for a huge payday as he is a free agent this year. His impact on the defense looks like Henry's on offense: 8 interceptions versus 13 for the rest of the squad.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">He was also the team's 10th leading tackler. And given that the team traded Stephon Gilmore and Jonathan Jones was injured halfway through the year, Jackson's value to the defense was immense.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Judon was running away with this award early in the year. He had 12.5 sacks through 13 games and the team was 9-4 and atop the AFC. But he didn't record a sack after that, missed the Jaguars tilt, and the thinking here is that he was injured. In the Buffalo playoff game he couldn't move laterally to keep up with receivers or quarterback Josh Allen, so something was up.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Most Improved Defensive Player: Kyle Dugger</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Honorable Mention: Adrian Phillips and Ja'Whaun Bentley</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Dugger started 7 games last year and 14 this year, missing three only because of injury. He had more tackles (78 vs 61), more interceptions (4 vs 0), and way more positive impact for the team. His ability to cover in zone and still come up to tackle much bigger backs and tight ends is impressive.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">How unknown was he before this year? I've been misspelling his name in this blog and never even realized it (my apologies).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Phillips' tackle numbers were roughly the same as last year, but his had twice as many interceptions (from 2 to 4) and over twice as many passes defended (from 4 to 9). He understood the defense immediately and with him and Dugger in place the Patriots could be well setup should veteran Devin McCourty retire.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Bentley gets a mention because he led the team in tackles. But he will always be a liability in pass coverage, so unlikely to win defensive MVP any time soon.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Defensive Newcomer of the Year: Judon</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Honorable Mention: Christian Barmore</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Judon for all the reasons listed above, <b>and</b> for bringing an attitude and edge to the defense. There are lots of cerebral guys on the Patriots, but you still need a few renegades to round things out. Judon and Dugger fill the bill, IMO.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Rookie Barmore got plenty of playing time, despite Bill Belichick's habit of making rookies wait. And according to PFF he was "far and away the most productive rookie interior defender." He played nearly 600 snaps and pressured the quarterback 48 times, second on the team to Judon. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u><b>Special Teams</b></u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Most Valuable Special Teams Player: Keith Folk</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Honorable Mention: none </i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Opening day of the 2020 season, Nick Folk missed a 45 yard field goal. 33 games later he hasn't missed one from fewer than 50 yards -- a streak of 55 straight kicks. He's been money, with some of his misses this year being ridiculous kicks (the 56 yarder in the rain against Tampa Bay comes to mind).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Special teams sucked this year, so no honorable mention :P</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Most Improved Special Teams Player: Cody Davis</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Honorable Mention: none</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Cody Davis changed numbers in the off-season, switching from #30 to #2. It worked.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">He led the team with 16 special teams tackles, topping even longtime special teams Pro Bowler Matthew Slater. He had just 9 last season, so apparently the number change helped :D</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Special Teams Newcomer of the Year: none</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>Honorable Mention: none</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Again, special teams on the whole were subpar, and terrible for a Belichick coached team. The Patriots spend too much money on special teamers not to get better performance out of this unit. Might be time to hire a ST coach with actual experience... their current one has been in the league about 12 minutes.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Summary</u></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">2021 was better than 2020 for sure. But if last weekend's games show anything it's that the Patriots have a long way to go to catch up to Buffalo or Kansas City.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity:</b> Folk's streak of 55 straight made field goals of 50 yards or less is just one short of the NFL record, held by Tampa Bay's Ryan Succup. The oddity is that Tampa is the team that cut Folk in 2017, so he could be available to kick for the Patriots.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-statistical oddity: </b></span><span style="font-family: arial;">There have only been two players in NFL history who's first name started with "Jakob," and the Patriots currently have *</span><b style="font-family: arial;">both*</b><span style="font-family: arial;"> of them: Jakobi Meyers and fullback Jakob Johnson. In fact, they have both been on the Patriots roster for the last three years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The odds that a single team would have the only two similarly named players in NFL history on the roster for three consecutive seasons is roughly 0.000000125%, based on 25,682 players who ever played, the number of overall NFL seasons, and the chances the only two of them would be on the same team for three consecutive years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Maybe some statistician can run the actual numbers for me, but until they do, I'm sticking with that number :D</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 0-0!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. Trivia answer: Dallas' Dak Prescott completed 67.8% of his passes as a rookie in 2016.</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-18030571671600009492022-01-16T09:28:00.000-05:002022-01-16T09:28:22.763-05:00Bills Destroy Patriots 47-17<span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots playoff run came to an abrupt halt with a crushing 47-17 defeat at the hands of division rival Buffalo. The loss knocks them out of the post-season. And the scope of the loss calls into question how far into their rebuild they really are.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">This one was over early. The Bills scored on their first drive, got an end zone interception that ended a Patriots threat, and drove that possession down for another score 10 plays later. In fact, the Bills didn't punt in the entire game -- the second straight game against the Patriots without a single punt. (Last time they got a bunch of fourth-down conversions, this time they never *got* to a fourth down.)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There is a clear talent disparity between the two teams. Buffalo is young, hungry, and one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. The Patriots are old, slow, seemingly less hungry, more injured, and based strictly on player talent probably shouldn't have been in the playoffs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">But despite that, the magnitude of this loss falls first on the coaching. The Bills shredded the Pats defense for two straight games, yet there weren't many adjustments or new wrinkles to slow them down. They mostly rushed four, mostly played zone, and mostly got killed on underneath routes and occasional long throws.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">By the end of this game they couldn't stop the run, short passes, medium passes, or long passes. And unless I'm missing something, there isn't anything else allowed on offense.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">In past years, I would blast opposing coaches who wouldn't adjust even though they got beaten year after year. One I remember distinctly was former head coach of Jacksonville, Jack Del Rio. He would use the same soft zone game after game and the Patriots would destroy that defense game after game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">In 2007 Tom Brady completed 26 of 28 passes and one of the misses was a Wes Welker drop. Yet Del Rio would never change, stubbornly trotting out his same old defense to get destroyed every single time.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">That's how I see the Patriots against the Bills. Three weeks ago they did nothing to slow down the Bills offense, not forcing a single punt. And last night they trotted out the same old defense and got dominated again.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Before the game I wrote that they needed to do some zero-safety blitzes, to make Bills QB Josh Allen get rid of the ball quickly and to take away his scrambling and running lanes. They didn't even try that once. The probably didn't have the personnel to pull it off. But they could have at least given it a shot.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">It isn't as if they don't have that defense in their arsenal. Belichick was showing it two weeks ago on Patriots All Access when breaking down the Dolphins game -- and showing how then defensive coordinator Brian Flores ran it in the Patriots 2018 Super Bowl win.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Seven touchdowns on seven possessions means you need to try *something*. But the Patriots never did. The Pats converted 7 of 14 third downs, but the Bills only <b>faced</b> 7 third downs. The Patriots went 4 of 4 on fourth down, but the Bills never even <b>faced</b> a fourth down.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">As for the players on the field, in a loss this lopsided it was mostly all bad. Probably the best thing you can say is the young players got a taste of what playoff football is like. Maybe they'll be better prepared for the intensity the next time they are on that stage.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">How bad was the <b>defense</b>. When your top five tacklers were in the secondary, that tells you the D-line and linebackers couldn't stop anything before it got started. I recall bad plays by most every linebacker and secondary player, and the defensive line just got pushed back and gashed over and over.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Mat Judon is obviously hurt, Ja'Whaun Bentley will always be a limited player, Dont'a Hightower looks cashed, and Kyle Van Noy had more hits in that Dunkin' Donuts commercial than in the game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The defensive backfield would have looked a lot different if they'd kept star corner Stephon Gilmore or if Jonathan Jones hadn't gotten hurt. J.C. Jackson is up for a big payday, but his play the last two Bills games (and frankly against Miami) has exposed issues with his play.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>offense</b> struggled to run early, gave up too much QB pressure, and the receivers had trouble getting separation. There are pieces here that can help as the Patriots build toward becoming a contender again: both young running backs, receivers Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Jakobi Meyers. But most of the rest of the weapons can hit the road -- including fullback Jacob Johnson, he of the stone hands, false start penalty, and missed assignment on the blocked punt against Indy.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And let's not let Mac Jones off the hook. On his first INT he never looked off the safety. And the second one was a throw right into coverage -- which was popped up and picked. He's young and still has a lot of growth ahead of him. But he was not nearly good enough to compete in this game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">As if to prove Bill Belichick's wisdom about turnovers, Jones tossed just 3 picks in the Patriots 10 wins, but he threw 12 in their 8 losses (including last night).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> Trying to forget a playoff beating like we haven't seen since Super Bowl XX versus Chicago. Mac Jones did accomplish something already that Tom Brady has never done -- lost a playoff game by 30 points.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Next week I'll have the regular season awards for 2021. And probably the week after I'll have an entry about how the team can best move forward toward improving in 2022.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Otherwise, you are free to enjoy (or envy) another Brady playoff run without fear -- you won't have to see the Patriots play the Bucs this post-season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern:</b> At the moment it's what Belichick does with his coaching staff. His special teams coach lacks experience and that area was a huge disappointment. Joe Judge is available, maybe time to bring him back. BB's son called the defensive signals -- and we saw how <b>that</b> went recently. And as always there are too many home-grown assistants and not enough outside perspectives.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP:</b> Bourne with 7 catches for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is a keeper; runs precise routes, blocks well on running plays, and competes for every ball and every yard.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity: </b>If Brady wins the Super Bowl this year, he would have 38 total playoff victories. That will be more than any entire <b>FRANCHISE</b> has in NFL history! (Note: the only team with 37 victories currently is the Patriots -- in case you were wondering if this would motivate Brady. Also, Dallas or Pittsburgh are close enough that they could have 38 by the end of this season, too -- but not Green Bay, not enough games before they'd have to play the Bucs. And in my scenario, Brady and the Bucs would beat GB.)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "Now I know how helpless all those teams in 2007 felt."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 10-8 & 0-1!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. :(</span></div></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-68048778197778571232022-01-10T00:49:00.000-05:002022-01-10T00:49:25.072-05:00Patriots Drop Season-Ender to Dolphins, 33-24<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots played sloppy and from behind and couldn't get over the hump, losing 33-24 to the Dolphins in Miami. The loss means the Bills (who won anyway) are AFC East Champs and the Pats are the #6 seed in the AFC. Next up will be those aforementioned Bills, up in Buffalo, with a chance to advance on the line.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This game was emblematic of why the Patriots are not likely to go very far in the playoffs. For two decades, New England under Bill Belichick had certain features, most of which this team lacks. BB himself has said that more games are lost in the NFL than won. And the Pats myriad mistakes week after week lost them more than their fair share this year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I planned to shellack the team for their poor play. But the more I thought about it, the more that seemed like punishing this team for the amazing success of past teams. That didn't feel fair.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It is difficult to win games in the NFL and tough to get into the playoffs. And rarely does a rookie quarterback lead a team to the post-season, but Mac Jones did just that. They improved on last year's 7-9 record with lots of free agent spending, a great draft, and steady development of their signal caller.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The epitaph of the Patriots 2021 season is yet to be written. But given their inconsistency they will undoubtedly be done sooner rather than later. They started the season 1-3 and finished the season 1-3. It was that 8-1 record in middle of the year that was so enticing, that got our hopes up so high.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Just a few weeks ago they beat Tennessee and held the first seed in the AFC. Since then, they are 2-3 and didn't force a single fumble in those five games. Two notes to keep expectations realistic: no rookie QB has ever gotten to the Super Bowl, and it's been 10 season since a team with a losing record down the stretch hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. (<b>Trivia question</b>: Can you name the team that finished 1-4 but still won it all that year? Answer below.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">So Mac Jones will get his playoff experience this year, one, two, or maybe three games. And then it'll be over and we'll be on to 2022. Could they catch lightning in a bottle like the 2018 team, you ask? Maybe, but probably not. That team was solid in special teams, had a great running attack, and had some guy named Brady at quarterback.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">As for the Miami game, what a stinker. Center David Andrews had an "equipment issue" and had to be replaced for one snap; that snap was fumbled on the exchange. Lawrence Guy lined up improperly on a punt, giving the Dolphins new life and three free points a few plays later. The pick-six by Mac Jones on a "film study" play where Miami knew exactly what was coming.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Three, count 'em <b>three</b>, dropped interceptions. That's becoming a theme with these guys; lately they seem to drop more than they catch. The brutally bad personal foul on Brandon Bolden, though all he had to do was jump over the sliding punter and it would have been Pats ball at the Miami 43. You know, back when the game was still a game.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The team got gashed by the run-pass option, which is an updated version of the Wildcat. And twice when they had Miami in third-and-long, and there was no running back (so no RPO), they lost contain and Tua ran for first downs to kill them. The last of those came when they needed a stop to get one last chance late -- a chance that never came.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It's unclear whether the coaches didn't change scheme to attack the RPO or if the team just lacks the defensive speed to do so. Either way it was unacceptable, because they knew it was coming and had a week to plan.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The team probably doesn't have a Super Bowl run in them this year. They probably never did, despite the long winning streak. So enjoy every game you get. There is something fun about watching a team with nothing to lose and low expectations. IIRC that happened exactly 20 seasons ago in what turned out to be their first magical run.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us? </b>The team finished the season 10-7, in the #6 seed (after the Raiders victory), and they travel to Buffalo this Saturday to take on the Bills in the season's rubber match. I wrote in the Season Preview that the Pats actually play Buffalo better in Buffalo. So it's not that bad that they are playing there; after all, they won the game up there and lost the one at home.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern:</b> How slowly the offense seems to start. They can't afford to fall behind early next week or Buffalo could steamroll them. It's incumbent on Josh McDaniels to figure out how Buffalo's D will attack and have something ready to counter it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP: </b>Wideout Jakobi Meyers, who had some sensational catches and ended up with 4 catches for 70 yards.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity: </b>Punter Jake Bailey set team marks two years in a row. Last year he averaged a franchise-record 48.7 yards per punt. This year he tied for the franchise record by having three punts blocked. Any prediction of what record he'll tie or break next year?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom: </b>"Certainly not an AFC powerhouse, but once you're in the playoffs anything can happen."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 10-7 & 0-0!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. Trivia Answer: the 2021 Baltimore Ravens went 1-4 in their last five games but pulled it together to win the Super Bowl</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-61782199729552192692022-01-03T00:52:00.003-05:002022-01-03T00:54:10.424-05:00Patriots Lay Waste to the Jaguars 50-10<span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots destroyed the Jaguars 50-10, in a game not even as close as that 40-point margin would indicate. That victory, combined with a loss by the Dolphins, puts the Patriots in the post-season for the first time in the post-TB12 era. They remain in second in the AFC East, due to tie-breakers, and need a loss or tie by the Bills (who play the Jets) and a win over the Dolphins to claim the division crown.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">This one was a laugher from the get-go. The Pats <b>scored touchdowns on their first five possessions</b>, and started 27 of their 34 first-half plays in Jaguars's territory. They converted 8-of-10 third downs and gained over 100 more yards both on the ground (181 to 80) and through the air (290 to 173). It was as thorough a beating as you'll see in the NFL.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Quarterback Mac Jones</b> played great (22 of 30, 227 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs), the main <b>running backs</b> averaged 5 yards a carry and had 4 touchdowns, there were <b>five receivers</b> with multiple catches, the <b>defense</b> confused and feasted on a young quarterback (with 60% of his O-line starters out with COVID), and the <b>coaches</b> never gave the Jaguars a chance to get back into the game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">What else would you expect? All week the <b>predictions were that this would be a get-right game</b> for New England. The Jaguars are awful, they already fired their head coach, and they were ravaged by COVID for the game. So it shouldn't be a surprise that the Patriots steamrolled them.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">But what was a surprise? <b>There are four things that surprised me</b>, all of which could have an impact on the team as they head toward the post-season. So rather than salivating over a game they were supposed to win, let's take a look at some developments that could help/hurt as they move into the playoffs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>First, practice squad wide receiver Kristian Wilkerson.</b> He was elevated to the team and played in place of healthy scratch N'Keal Harry. And he played very well, hauling in four passes for 42 yards and two touchdowns. (For perspective, Harry has twice caught two touchdowns in entire <b>seasons</b> -- and that is the best total of his career!)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Why is this important?</b> Because the Patriots desperately need another passing game threat. The previous week, wideout Nelson Agholor was out and Kendrick Bourne was limited after returning from a concussion. So when the Bills blanketed Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry, the Pats needed N'Keal Harry to step up and make plays.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">But Harry didn't. He had one catch on six targets, dropped an easy first-down conversion, and then popped the next pass up in the air for an interception. When the playoffs start, the Patriots could not count on Harry. And if any of the receivers were hurt, they'd be in trouble against good teams.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">However, if Wilkerson can at least be a threat in the post-season, chances are he'll see the other team's fourth- or fifth-best corners. If the Patriots had to depend on Harry they'd be in trouble. But at least Wilkerson showed something, something other teams can either work to defend or the Patriots can take advantage of.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">I've written often in the past that the Patriots offense works best when they have a good slot receiver, a good tight end, and at least four total threats in the passing game. They don't really have a great slot guy. But if Wilkerson can do better than Harry, they would have four real arial threats.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Second, the reps at running back.</b> Once again, Damien Harris was limited with a hamstring injury. He had just nine carries for 35 yards, though he did score two touchdowns and ran well and with power. It's possible they are going easy on him, not wanting to risk an injury before the playoffs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Rhamondre Stevenson played very well in relief of Harris</b>, going for 107 yards on 19 carries and two touchdowns of his own. And it's great the team has a backup of his capabilities.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">But Harris' hammy is concerning, because they have almost no running back depth. And as the games get colder and the conditions worsen, it was believed they would become a run-heavy team -- to control the clock and wear down other teams, as well as to take pressure off their rookie QB in his first post-season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">If Harris can't shoulder the load, that puts a ton of pressure on Stevenson. The drop-off in talent from him to Brandon Bolden is massive. J.J. Taylor returned from the COVID list two games ago but hasn't seen the field since. So the thinness at running back could well be a concern going forward.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Third, J.C. Jackson's admission.</b> During the game broadcast, the announcers stated that J.C. Jackson confessed to not being properly focused the previous week against Buffalo. This is surprising and refreshing, as athletes rarely admit such things but it was nice to see Jackson take ownership of why he didn't play well against the Bills.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Realizing that he had missed two big INT chances in that game, Jackson studied additional film and vowed to lock things down this week. Which he did. He had a nice interception and nearly had another. And he also tied for the team lead with four tackles.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Why is this important? </b>The Patriots will need Jackson at the top of his game if they expect to make any noise in the playoffs. With Stephon Gilmore gone, if Jackson can't lock down his man, it would force too many players to adjust on defense -- and that is bound to leave more holes in the run and pass D.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Maybe it wasn't the admission that was important, but his response. Watch him closely next week. He'll likely take on one of the top two receivers, and it'll be important to see if he can lock them down or at least reduce their impact on the game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>And fourth, yet another blocked kick.</b> I know, a missed extra point in a 40-point victory sort of falls through the cracks. But once the playoffs begin, there won't be any patsies on the schedule. And this team will have to struggle to make it through every game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">In close games, a missed assignment on a kick can be disastrous. <b>The blocked punt/touchdown probably cost them any realistic chance in the Colts game</b>. And bear in mind that they are likely looking at road playoff games, where crowd noise makes communication on kicking plays even more difficult.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">This is their fourth blocked kick of the season, three punts and that extra point. They've needed to shore up their special teams all year, but haven't done it yet. So when the playoffs come, keep your fingers crossed when the Pats drop into punt or field goal formations.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us? </b>10-6 and in the playoffs is great. Buffalo came from behind to take care of business, so the division remains out of the Patriots grasp for now. Believe it or not the Patriots could end up with the first seed or the last seed, depending on the results next week.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">It's good to be in the tournament. But they need to take care of business in Miami next week so they aren't stuck playing Kansas City or Tennessee in the first round. Those would be really bad matchups for them.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern. </b>For this week it's probably their overall futility in Miami. Even under BB they are just 9-11 in South Florida. In fact they lost there just last year, in a game they needed to stay in the playoff hunt. So for this week, tighten things up and get a win in Miami.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP: </b>Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, who caught five of six passes thrown his way for 15.2 yards a catch and also ran twice for 17 yards. He also took some tough hits along the way.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity: </b>Twice this season the Patriots have put up at least 50 points in a game. The 31 other teams have only done it *once* combined. (<b>Trivia question</b>: Which team notched the other game of 50-or-more points? Hint: it happened very recently. Answer below.)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Bonus oddity:</b> Bill Belichick has never lost a game in Foxboro against a rookie quarterback. After topping the Jags and Trevor Lawrence, he is 15-0 in such games.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom: </b>"I bet even Kristian Wilkerson didn't have himself in his fantasy league."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 10-6!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. Trivia answer:</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />The Dallas Cowboys put up 56 points against Washington just last week.</span></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-41842778049528286472021-12-26T23:00:00.001-05:002021-12-26T23:00:52.973-05:00Bills Thrash Patriots 33-21<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots lost a huge game to Buffalo, dropping the home contest 33-21. The loss vaults the Bills to the AFC East lead and drops the Patriots from second to sixth in the AFC playoff race. Next up is a winnable game against Jacksonville at Gillette, and at this point the team needs to get a win to control whether they even make they playoffs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Two weeks ago</b> the Pats were on top of the world. They rode a victory in Buffalo to the first seed in the AFC, and it all appeared to be in front of them: playoff bye, home games throughout, and an easier path to the Super Bowl. Now sitting with the sixth seed, the question is, how did it all come apart so quickly. The answer is simple and frustrating...</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>The Patriots have become the team they used to beat with regularity</b>. For two decades they rose to good competition and just played well enough to allow bad teams to beat themselves. Over and over they used that formula to win division titles, get playoff byes, and ride their regular-season success to Super Bowls and championships.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But now it's the <b>*Patriots*</b> who beat themselves. Coaching blunders. Poorly timed penalties. Turnovers. Bad situational play. Special teams gaffes. Dropped passes. Dropped interceptions. Lack of adjustments. Undisciplined players. When it comes to the losing formula, the Patriots seem to have it all.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Here is a <b>quick list </b>of some of those very problems on display this afternoon.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">At 10-7 Bills, quarterback Mac Jones threw a nice, easy pass to a wide open N'Keal Harry, who just flat out dropped it. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Jones' first interception came on the next play, when the linebacker was standing directly between him and his target. N'Keal, catch the damned ball. And Mac, pull that ball down and then throw it away -- it was only second down.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Late in the first half they had Buffalo facing a fourth-and-seven. But they had been aggressive so there was a chance they'd go for it. So not knowing if they'd be getting the ball back, the Patriots called a timeout to save time -- but Buffalo still had the ball. Huh?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">During that timeout, apparently no one told rookie Christian Barmore that the Bills were going to try to draw the Patriot offside to make it fourth-and-two. Barmore bit on the hard count, the penalty was assessed, the Bills got the first down, and then a touchdown.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">On the next possession the Pats were driving for a score before the half. But after the referee picked up a late-hit flat, Patriots tackle Trent Brown lost his mind and cost his team 15 yards with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. It would have been second-and-three at their 47, but instead it was second-and-18 at their 32. Two plays later, punt.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">7:30 left in the game and the Pats somehow had clawed their way back to within one score. Bills QB Josh Allen floated a pass over his receiver's head and it was right in the hands of corner JC Jackson. Who amazingly dropped the ball. Jackson has more interceptions than anyone since he entered the league, but when they really needed one to get the ball back and score, he dropped it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(This comes a week after the Patriots dropped two potential interceptions that could have turned the Colts game in their direction. And yes, Jackson had one of those miscues, too.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">All game long the Bills killed New England with short zone passes, and the linebackers continued deep drops or were out of position play after play. And with Josh Allen making hay running from the pocket, there was never an adjustment to run blitz and get the ball out of his hands. In the old days they would have adjusted mid-drive. Now apparently halftime isn't long enough to adjust.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Their kickoffs are all over the map; but there is never a situation where you kick the ball to the 15 yard-line on purpose. But the Pats did just that, and it was returned to the 35. If you want to force a return, you kick it inside the 5, not inside the 20.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were multiple plays where the Patriots defensive secondary was pointing, yelling, and repositioning players even as the ball was snapped. They were fortunate the Bills didn't rack them on those plays, because several times Buffalo receivers dropped easy passes for big gains.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Lastly, their situational awareness was for crap. One play ended with a late hit by the Bill, but center David Andrews rushed in to jaw it up with the defender -- and got an offsetting unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. And the Patriots converted only 1 of 10 third downs, forcing them to go for it on fourth down six times!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It's tough to say what was the worst part of their performance. <b>On offense</b>, Mac Jones missed multiple short receivers, sometimes whiffing on throws to his <b>*outlet*</b> receivers. The receivers dropped some easy passes, and tight end Jonnu Smith had a critical holding call. And veteran running back Brandon Bolden looked lost at times.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>On defense</b>, t</span><span style="font-family: arial;">he linebackers couldn't cover anyone in the short zones and didn't tackle well, either. The secondary played too much soft zone. And the pass rushers lost outside and inside contain repeatedly, allowing Allen to run wild.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Only the run defense and offense did well. But without the gale force winds of a few weeks ago, the rest of the team was exposed.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">How the Patriots have gotten to this point is another article. However, unless they clean up those type of mistakes, they aren't going anywhere in the playoffs, if they even make it there.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Maybe last year was the salary cap reset, and this year was the roster reset. But they'll have to improve their talent and get rid of players who keep screwing up in little ways. Because all those little gaffes have lead to two straight losses and a season teetering on the brink.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> The Patriots still have two winnable games down the stretch, next week against Jacksonville and in Miami to finish the regular season. If they run the table, the number crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.com give them only a 23% chance of the Bills slipping up and giving them the division crown (<a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo" target="_blank">link</a>).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If they win the division, they'd host at least one, and possibly two playoff games. If not, chances are they'd be on the road for the post-season -- again, assuming they make it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern: </b>Aside from the accumulation of little issues, it's mostly health related. Receiver Nelson Agholor was out with a concussion and running back Rhamondre Stevenson was on the COVID list. Without those two, the skill positions are strained, and the Bills just double-covered the two fave targets and assumed the run wouldn't beat them.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Perhaps the biggest difference in the game yesterday was the play of the backup receivers. N'Keal Harry played in place of Agholor and he had 1 catch (on 6 targets) for 9 yards. Isaiah McKenzie replaced Buffalo's Cole Beasley and he had 11 catches for 125 yards and a touchdown.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Pretty stark comparison.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP: </b>It was Damien Harris, who ran for 103 yards on 18 carries and scored all three Patriots touchdowns. He ran tough and smart and also had some nice blitz pickup.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity:</b> Mac Jones has 3 interceptions in the Patriots nine wins this year, and 9 interceptions in their six losses. Time to double-down on throwing it away and living to fight another play.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom: </b>"The sky isn't falling, but my opinion of the Patriots coaching staff is."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 9-6!</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-57250501984228922592021-12-19T22:50:00.000-05:002021-12-19T22:50:28.007-05:00Pats Fall To Colts 27-17<span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots fell behind early and lost to Indy 27-17 last night. The defeat leaves them with a 9-5 record, still good for a one-game lead over the Bills in the AFC East. But with the Kansas City win last Thursday (and losses today from Tennessee and Baltimore), they sit at #2 in the AFC playoff seeding. Next up is a home date with the Bills on Sunday.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>This one got away from them early</b> and by the time their offense got on track it was too late to come back. Early on the defense looked overmatched, especially inept stopping the run. Special teams made the biggest mistake of the game, leading directly to seven points for Indy. And the offense was stale and turned the ball over twice in 4 minutes of game time, including a killer red zone pick near the end of the first half.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>I hesitate to read too much into this game</b>, for two main reasons. First, the Patriots offense traditionally starts slow the week after a bye (both regular season and playoffs). It's such a pattern that I wrote this when breaking down the schedule in September, "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">I expect the Pats offense to start slow (as it traditionally does) after the Bye. Put it in as the Patriots fourth loss."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Second, it's a truism in the NFL that a home team that needs a late-season game the most tends to end up winning. The Colts needed to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Patriots were less desperate and on the road, and it showed in the level of energy and focus, particularly in the first half.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The truly unfortunate thing is that as well as the Colts played, the Patriots could have kept the game much closer in the first half and had a real chance to win in the fourth quarter. How could they have done that, you ask? Here are five things that would have made for a closer game:</span></div><div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">On their <b>first possession</b>, the Patriots drove into Colts territory, then this happened: five-yard penalty on Shaq Mason (illegally downfield on a pass), then inexplicably a delay of game coming out of that penalty play, which lead to a third and long and a 15-yard sack. They had it on the Indy 47, but ended up losing 21 yards before punting from their own 32.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Jacob Johnson</b> could have actually slowed down Matthew Adams on the Patriots second punt. Instead, he missed his assignment, Adams blocked the punt, and the Colts recovered it in the end zone for a touchdown. It was a bad miss by Johnson, and the Patriots third blocked punt this season -- way too many for any season.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>After the 2:00 warning</b>, the Patriots faced a second-and-one at the Colts 13 yard line, with a chance to make it a 17-7 game at the half. Instead, Janu Smith committed a false start, and with second-and-six they threw the ball and Mac Jones tossed an easy interception.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">After the half, literally six plays later, J<b>ones threw his second pick</b>, another ill-advised throw, giving Indy the short field. The Pats defense held firm, and the Colts field goal attempt was wide right -- yay! Wait, not so fast, defensive offsides gave them another chance, and this time it was good :(</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>After a Jones touchdown</b> got the Pats on the board, they drove it again to the Indy two yard line. But on third and goal, Michael Onwenu got a false start penalty, and they couldn't convert on third-and-seven -- so they had to settle for a field goal. Note: a touchdown there and it's a one-score game; the field goal made it closer but it was still a two-possession game at that point.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Bonus: </b>not to mention dropped potential interceptions by J.C. Jackson and Jamie Collins (the easier of the two), the poor run defense on the last Colts' touchdown (67 yards!), and numerous other penalties (eight accepted for 50 yards) that cost the team time after time.</span></li></ol><div><span style="font-family: arial;">I won't go into too much detail on this one, because it was a total team loss. <b>The entire team stunk up the joint</b> in the first half, and when both the offense and defense woke up in the second half, penalties and the interception killed any chance to get back into it.</span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>This was not Jones' finest hour</b>, completing just 58% of his passes (26 of 45) with 2 TDs and those 2 killer INTs. The thinness at running back is showing; they gained just 39 yards, which is two fewer than the receivers and quarterback gained on the ground. And for all the beef up front on defense, the run D was poor, giving up gains on almost every rush (only 3 of 39 running plays went for a loss) and 226 yards on the ground.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The passing <b>defense</b> was great. Indy QB Carson Wentz was 5 of 12 for 57 yards and threw three interception-worthy passes, though only one was picked. (<b>Trivia question</b>: when was the last time a team beat the Patriots completing five or fewer passes? Hint, it was in the playoffs. Answer below.) But stopping the pass didn't help much with Jonathan Taylor running wild, including on his 67-yard touchdown to seal the game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Coaching</b> was not the Patriots strong suit in this one. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">The Colts first half strategy was clear: run blitz and if it was a pass then just go to the quarterback. But offensive coordinator McDaniels didn't take advantage of that with quick-hit passes, screens, or play action -- he called run after run into the teeth of the defense.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And on defense, it took too long to adjust to stopping Taylor. It was apparent Wentz wasn't going to win the game against the Patriots strong pass D. So where were the changes to slow down an MVP candidate back?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And as for special teams coaching: a blocked punt for touchdown, the offside to give Indy another shot at a field goal, and the bad pooch kickoff by Nick Folk at the end of the game (much too short) -- those are all really bad mistakes. It has me wondering if their two special teams assistants are too green for the job. Between them they have four years of experience. Just sayin'.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> 9-5 is good but doesn't keep pace with KC's 10-4. The Patriots own tiebreakers over all the AFC contenders, so if they end up tied they'll get the coveted playoff bye (only one bye per conference this year). Now they need the Chiefs to slip up and have to run the table to make that happen.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Next Sunday they can lock up the AFC East with a win over the Bills. So same as this past week, the other team needs it more -- but different from last week, it'll be at Gillette. They need to take care of this game unless they want a dogfight for the division crown for the rest of the season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern:</b> The injuries at running back are becoming a problem. JJ Taylor was out with COVID, now Damien Harris has a hamstring injury -- that puts a lot of pressure on rookie Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP:</b> no player performed well enough to name an MVP.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity: </b>Jones had as many completions against the Bills as he had TDs and INTs against the Colts (2 of each).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "Beat Buffalo this weekend and you win the division. Worry about everything else later."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 9-5!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. Trivia answer: the Baltimore Ravens beat the Patriots 33-14 in January of 2010, when QB Joe Flacco went 4 of 10 for 34 yards (and an INT). Similarly to last night's game, the Ravens won with a really strong running attack.</span></div><div><br /></div></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-74964085692535225252021-12-07T10:47:00.000-05:002021-12-07T10:47:00.931-05:00Patriots Grind Down Bills 14-10<span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots bulldozed the Bills all night and came away with a 14-10 victory. The win puts them at 9-4, 1.5 games up on those same Bills for first place in the AFC East, and currently sitting with the #1 playoff position in the conference. Next up is the Bye week, followed by a Saturday night tilt in Indianapolis against the Colts.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">I <b>give the Pats full credit for the win</b> last night. They understood the weather conditions (40-50mph winds) and adjusted accordingly, running 46 times and throwing just 3. They adjusted their blocking to get a few key chunk plays, and stayed committed to the ground game throughout.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">What I <b>don't agree with is the media coverage</b>, calling this a brilliant coaching job or one of the best games ever coached by Bill Belichick. The better description I've read called it "unorthodox," and I think that's about right. A brilliant plan wouldn't have required a Bills missed field goal and a fourth-down play that could have cost you the game late.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>I reserve "brilliant" </b>for the 59-0 beatdown of Tennessee in the rain and snow, the 13-3 Super Bowl plan against the Rams, or the novel designs: the Bullseye (targeting Marshall Faulk in Super Bowl 36), the Amoeba (vs. Drew Bledsoe and Buffalo), or the Eligible Receiver deception used to beat the Ravens in the 2014 playoffs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Not that I'm complaining about the win. I'll take that all week long and twice on Monday. It's just the media gushing over what seemed like a simple decision based on conditions. And I have a quibble with the plan -- they should have used five or six more play-action passes to defeat the Bills' 9- and 10-man fronts.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">As for the game, the big guys up front on both sides were the real stars. The Patriots used <b>six O-linemen</b> for much of the game but still were able to run against those stacked fronts from Buffalo. The interior linemen were exceptionally good, and the receivers and blocking back Jacob Johnson sealed the edges and opened up just enough room to spring the backs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">222 yards on 46 carries only averages to 4.8 yards a carry. But those numbers are a lot better when you consider the Bills <b>*knew*</b> the run was coming and couldn't stop it often enough. Damien Harris led the team with 111 yards on 10 carries, including a 64-yard burst for the team's only touchdown. And when Harris left the game with a hamstring problem, Rhamondre Stevenson filled in capably with 78 yards on 24 tough runs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And note: if the plan included wearing down the Bills defense it didn't accomplish that at all. If it had, their fourth quarter running stats wouldn't be six rushes for minus-2 yards (not including two Mac Jones kneel downs for minus-8 yards). The game nearly got away from the Pats as their offense finally sputtered in the fourth quarter and the Bills moved the ball seemingly at will down the stretch.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>On defense, linemen</b> Davon Godchaux and Lawrence Guy had great games, stuffing most runs for almost no gain and ending up with 10 and 4 tackles respectively. It's pretty uncommon for a Patriots interior lineman to total double-digit tackles, so kudos to Godchaux.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>linebackers </b>played really well, especially Kyle Van Noy (mostly kept the Bills QB in the pocket and knocked down a key pass) and Ja'Whaun Bentley (eight tackles). Dont'a Hightower made some nice stops but also whiffed a few times and had a bad penalty that almost cost the Pats late.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>secondary</b> did a nice job keeping everything in front of them. Given the conditions, short passes were on the menu, and safety Adrian Phillips and corner J.C. Jackson knocked down passes and forced errant throws. Though Myles Bryant came up with the game-saving pass knockdown on the Bills final play of the game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Kicker Nick Folk</b> was excellent, going 2 for 2 on field goals in really bad conditions, but Jake Bailey's kickoffs were short (even with the wind) and his punts were problematic, and N'Keal Harry botched a punt return and turned the ball over to the Bills. (Note: Buffalo scored their only touchdown on the next play.)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">My only <b>coaching </b>complaint was the lack of play-action plays. Otherwise, the defensive game plan and calls were great, and the offensive adjustments were perfect.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us? </b>9-4 and riding a seven-game winning streak, the Pats are atop the AFC for the time being. They've got a week off before traveling to Indy for a Saturday game with the Colts, and then it's these same Bills again, this time in Foxboro. Life. Is. Good.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern: </b>Injury concerns are starting to mount. Harris was gimpy, Kyle Duggar was in COVID protocol, Adrian Phillips was hurt near the end of the game, and Matthew Judon looked like he had a shoulder injury last night.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">All of those might be fine in two weeks, but the concern remains until shown otherwise.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP: </b>Godchaux, who stuffed so many running plays that Butterball wants him for their turkeys next year!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity:</b> This was the first NFL game of Mac Jones' career when he didn't get sacked... (LOL).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Water-cooler wisdom: "Meet the new boss! Same as the... I'll finish this later in the season."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />PS. 9-4!</span></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-78547280956334677782021-11-29T23:06:00.000-05:002021-11-29T23:06:04.257-05:00Patriots Take Out Titans 36-13<p><span style="font-family: arial;">It wasn't the blowout the score would indicate, but the Patriots shutout the Titans in the second half en route to a 36-13 victory. The win put them atop the AFC East and moved them to the #2 playoff seed in the AFC. Next up is a crucial division tilt in Buffalo, the first of two games with the Bills over three weeks.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Sunday's game was 16-13 after a bruising and closely contested first half. But the Pats defense rose to the occasion in the second 30 minutes, and the offense rode three second half turnovers to a 23-point win.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This game felt a lot <b>like the Atlanta game</b>, only against a better team. Without star back Derrick Henry, the Patriots simply made sure they didn't get beaten through the air and assumed they wouldn't lose the game on the ground. And even though the Titans ran for 270 yards, they threw for just 93 yards, and of course they weren't close to winning in the second half.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Corner</b> <b>JC Jackson</b> was amazing in the game; shutting down receivers, catching a running back from behind and forcing a fumble, and intercepting a ball in the end zone to thwart the Titans only threatened score in the second half. And fellow corner Jalen Mills had his best game with the Patriots: two tackles, two passes defended, and he recovered the fumble caused by Jackson.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The team has been searching for Jonathan Jones' replacement for a few weeks now, and if Mills continues playing like that he could be just that.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Safeties</b> <b>Kyle Duggar and Adrian Phillips</b> continue their excellent play, with eight and seven tackles, respectively. But it wasn't all good at this position; veteran Devin McCourty took bad angles on two running plays that went for huge chunks of yardage. He did bat the ball that Jackson intercepted, but those positional mistakes were inexcusable for a veteran of his status.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley</b> look like a new man this year. He led the team with 10 tackles, had a sack and two forced fumbles, and makes more plays each week than he had in the two prior seasons.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I mostly chalk up Bentley's improvement to playing next to Matt Judon (six tackles, a sack, and two QB hits yesterday), Kyle Van Noy (five tackles, three passes defended, and a forced fumble), and Dont'a Hightower (4 tackles and a pass defended). No way Bentley got *that* much better that quick.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">In this game, the <b>defensive line</b> didn't play particularly well. They gave up a huge amount of rushing yards and didn't generate much pressure up the middle. Most of the QB harassment came from the edge or blitzes, though the huge Tennessee offensive line might have had something to do with this.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I will give them credit for another goal line stand. When the Titans had a first-and-goal at the 5 yard line, they stuffed runs for 1 yards, 2 yards, played good disciplined D on a short pass, and then got the aforementioned interception. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Overall the </span><b style="font-family: arial;">Patriots defense leads the NFL</b><span style="font-family: arial;"> in fewest points per game (15.8), most interceptions (19), fewest rushing touchdowns allowed (6 all season), is tied for the lead league with three pick-sixes, has allowed the second-lowest opposing quarterback rating (70.2), and is second in number of passes defended (64). Not bad for a team that traded away their best corner before the season started.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Quarterback Mac Jones' </b>first game in the snow wasn't his best. He was high on a lot of throws, missing badly on what should have been an easy touchdown to Hunter Henry. Also, he should have been picked off once or twice, but the Titans defense couldn't hold onto the ball.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">He ended the day with gaudy stats: 23 of 32 (71.9%) a season-high 310 yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 123.2 QB rating. But don't be fooled; he has some work to do to acclimate to the cold. Fortunately for him, there's plenty of cold coming ::brrrr::</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>O-line</b> was great again, mostly keeping Jones clean and opening the way for 105 yards on just 24 totes (4.4 yards per carry). I'm starting to think Rhamondre Stevenson is a better back than Damien Harris, though Harris knows the offense better so he's likely to continue getting more playing time. Stevenson seems to get yards when nothing appears to be available more often than Harris.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Among the <b>receivers</b>, Kendrick Bourne was the star, with two tough runs for touchdowns. And perhaps the scariest thing for the rest of the league is that six players had more than one catch. That kind of offensive diversity is a hallmark of the Patriots championship teams -- though some of them couldn't claim *six* legit targets!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If special teams is your bag, you would have loved the Patriots performance. They forced returns on kickoffs and got short returns and penalties to pin back the Titans. The reborn Nick Folk booted made five of six field goals, including a 53 yarder. (His only miss was from 52.) And it was no mistake that the Patriots average starting field position was their 41, while the Titans was their 24.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> First six games: 2-4. Last six games: 6-0! 8-4 isn't a bad place to be, and second in the conference is even better. The next three games will tell the real tale of the season. Mobile QBs give the Patriots trouble, and they are about to face Josh Allen and Carson Wentz, both very mobile signal-callers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The main question with the Bills is whether they can run the ball. With the Colts it's whether they are for real. We'll know in one month!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern: </b>How the secondary will hold up against teams with multiple good receivers. They've looked great of late, but they are thin at corner and it could go badly when they play teams like Buffalo or Kansas City with multiple speed receivers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(Despite media hand-wringing, it is *not* the run defense. Tennessee was missing their featured back yesterday -- but their offensive line, blocking back, blocking receivers, tight ends, and coaches were still there.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP: </b>Jackson, though it was a close call with Bentley.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical Oddity:</b> Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have given up over 265 yards on the ground just twice: yesterday and against the Broncos in November of 2013. They won both games. (<b>Trivia question</b>: Can you name the quarterback who lost that game in 2013? </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Answer below.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom: </b>"If the media is right about Belichick's drafting, then he must be the greatest coach in the history of the *world* to turn things around this fast."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 8-4!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. Trivia Answer:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">None other than Peyton Manning quarterbacked the Broncos in that game -- wilting as the Patriots stormed back from 24-0 down to win in overtime. I remember because I was there, chanting: "Pey-Ton! Pey-Ton!"</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-4079296543109055062021-11-26T08:09:00.002-05:002021-11-26T09:35:24.181-05:00Patriots Sorta-Midseason Report 2021<span style="font-family: arial;">Hello all and a happy and safe "Wicked Long Weekend" to you! I hope you aren't unhappy that I skipped writing a breakdown of the Atlanta game. It was such a mismatch across the board, I thought there was very little to learn from it.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Before I leave that game for good though, there is one thing that should worry the rest of the NFL. The Patriots barely tried and blew out the Falcons 25-0. And what I mean by "barely tried" is that it appeared they game planned to take away rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, kept their offense very, very conservative, and waited for Atlanta to implode.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Check, check, and check. No real in-game adjustments, just kickoff the ball and let's win it on talent and in-game coaching. If the Pats are good enough to take any NFL team that lightly, especially on a short week on the road, then they are a pretty confident bunch. And they wouldn't be that confident unless the man at the top, Bill Belichick believed in them. *That* should scare the rest of the league.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">So <b>where does the team stand</b> <b>now</b>, a little over halfway through the season? Well, first place in the AFC East isn't bad given that they were literally two games behind five weeks ago. Since their 2-4 start, the Patriots reeled off five straight wins to stand at 7-4. Conversely the Bills started 4-2 and have gone 2-2 since then to post a 6-4 record.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">I had the Patriots slated for an 8-3 start, and honestly, one win short of my prediction isn't nearly as bad as it could have been. Five-plus weeks ago I said they should sell at the trade deadline if they lost either of their next two games. But they won both and three more in a row.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>How have they made this sudden turnaround?</b> Two reasons: the offense has built chemistry, and they switched up the defense to better use their personnel.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>On offense</b>, here are three scoring averages over the first part of the year:</span></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">First four games = 17.8 ppg</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Next two games = 27.0 ppg</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Last five games = 35.0 ppg</span></li></ul></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Offense takes longer to gel than defense does, especially the New England offense. It depends on timing, pinpoint coordination on their many screens and gadget plays, and chemistry between the quarterback and receivers. The running game is simpler, though the Patriots have run a lot of inside trap plays, which also take timing and coordination</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>On defense</b>, the Patriots made a change that turned their season around. They gave up 35 points in an overtime loss to Dallas, and in that game cornerback Jonathan Jones sustained a season-ending shoulder injury.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">With their season teetering on the edge of ruin and a depleted secondary (already missing traded corner Stephon Gilmore), they switched from playing mostly man defense to playing mostly zone defense. And the results have been stark.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">At least two opposing quarterbacks said they were confused because the Patriots played almost exclusively man-defense since 2018. And the average points dropped significantly:</span></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">First six games = 21.2 ppg</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Last five games = 10.0 ppg</span></li></ul></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">A lot of media outlets have said the last five games were against worse competition. But remember, those <b>first six games included the awful Dolphins, Jets, and Texans</b>.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">This wasn't about bad competition or teams missing their offensive weapons. It was about offensive cohesion and better using the players they have on defense. What was the result?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">In 2021, the Patriots lead the NFL in scoring differential, having scored 123 more points than they've given up. U</span><span style="font-family: arial;">nder Bill Belichick they finished first in that category seven other times. Six of those years they went to the AFC Championship Game, five times they made it to the Super Bowl, and three times they won it all. (</span><b style="font-family: arial;">Trivia question</b><span style="font-family: arial;">: name the season they finished #1 in scoring differential but didn't make the conference final. Answer below.)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Just sayin', not predictin'.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">What we see mostly with the Pats in 2021 is <b>balance</b>. A short passing game and a tough running attack that controls the ball and moves the chains. They've converted 45.8% of their third-downs, good for fifth-best in the league. And they've allowed just 35.5% conversions on defense, sixth-best in the NFL. Where have I heard "good situational football" before? Hmmmm... let me think about that :)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Quarterback Mac Jones</b> has steadily improved through the year. He had 5 TDs and 5 INTs in the first five games, and 9 TDs and 3 INTs the last six contests. He audibles into the right play more often and had only had two or three bad decisions in the last few games.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">It helps that he hasn't been getting knocked around as much. The <b>offensive line</b> solidified when Michael Onwenu was inserted into the lineup, and played even better when anchor tackle Trent Brown returned two weeks ago.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And those line changes have opened up a punishing <b>running game</b>, with Damien Harris the featured back, rookie Rhomondre Stevenson the hammer back, and veteran special teamer Brandon Bolden taking the James White spread-formation role after White was lost for the season with a hip injury.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">As for the <b>receivers</b>, Jakobi Meyers is the clutch guy on third-down, Kendrick Bourne is the deep threat, and tight end Hunter Henry is an excellent red zone option. Henry has seven TDs on the season, the same number as all the wide receivers combined!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>defense </b>can blitz from the outside or inside, holds the edge against the run, can play man, zone, or combinations, disguises extremely well pre-snap, and they are very opportunistic when it comes to errant throws or causing fumbles. Their 21 forced turnovers is third-best in the league.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Free agent signee <b>linebacker Matthew Judon</b> is perfect for this defense. He can speed rush, bull rush, holds up at the point of attack, can drop into coverage, and has an edge and an attitude needed to bring his teammates play up to his standards.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Along the <b>defensive line</b>, rookie defensive end Christian Barmore looks like a draft steal, and the longer the season goes the better he plays. He blows up plays as often as Judon and occupies blockers so they can't get to the linebackers. Same can be said of former Dolphins free agent Devon Godchaux, and together the two of them make a formidable pair inside.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Veteran <b>linebackers </b>Dont'a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy both started off slow but have picked things up of late. And Ja'Whaun Bentley is having his best year as a Patriots player, obviously benefitting from having great players around him.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Cornerback JC</b> <b>Jackson </b>continues his march toward a huge free agent payday, leading the team with six interceptions and leading the NFL with 23 since he entered the league. Jalen Mills hasn't been anything special, but Myles Bryant and Joejuan Williams have been serviceable filling in for Jones.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Maybe the biggest surprise was the leap in production from second-year <b>safety Kyle Duggar</b>, who leads the team in tackles and has three timely interceptions. Along with former Chargers safety Adrian Phillips and veteran Devin McCourty, the team has so much flexibility with their defensive backfield it's no wonder opposing quarterbacks get confused.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">2021 really has been a year of "next man up." Based on previous seasons, no one would have expected significant contributions from Bolden, Meyers, Bentley, Williams, or Bryant. But with better talent around them and first-team reps in practice and on Sundays, each have grown into their roles remarkably well.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Remember: James White was a scrub playing behind Dion Lewis until Lewis got hurt (and eventually left) -- it was only when White got time with Brady and the offense that he became one of the best third-down backs of all time (Belichick's words, not mine).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Two more areas to cover quickly, first is <b>special teams</b>. Nick Folk has had a real rebirth here. After making just 54.5% of his field goals in 2017, he was on the street looking for work in 2018. Since signing here, he's made 66 of 73 FGs for a 90.4% success rate. And his two misses this year were a 56 yarder in the rain and a 54 yarder at the end of a blowout win in Carolina. Jake Bailey appears to be nursing an injury as his kickoffs haven't been as deep or well directed. And frankly the team has too many special teams penalties for my taste.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Those who compare this team to the 2001 Patriots miss the fact that the earlier version has bulletproof special teams. Never a misstep, solid coverage and blocking, and they created turnovers and points. It's a pretty big difference if you ask me.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lastly, the <b>coaching</b> was shaky to start the year but has gotten much better of late. I noted a few times early on that OC Josh McDaniels wasn't adjusting quickly enough or getting the team off to a good start. That improved as Mac Jones' grasp of the offense and chemistry with teammates has.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">As for the defensive coaching, I agree with a lot of the media speculation that Belichick himself has taken over that side of the ball. The loss to Dallas saw too many yards and points given up and very poor play situationally.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And the team still has some hiccups that I would put on overall coaching. Fumbles, false starts, timeouts coming out of TV timeouts, too many men on the field (or maybe too few), poor decisions on replay challenges, and overuse of trick plays. Those areas have gotten better but still aren't up to expectations for a Belichick team.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>So where does that leave us?</b> This Sunday's game with Tennessee has huge playoff implications. The absence of Titans running back Derek Henry makes them much easier to defend, which is advantage Patriots. The Pats "D" thrives on one-dimensional offenses. If the team wins, they will have the tie-breaker so they could potentially be in the #1 or #2 AFC playoff spot by end of day.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>No on-going concern listed -- just wrote an entire entry about how things are going :D</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity of the first 11 games:</b> 2020-2021 marks the first back-to-back seasons a Belichick-coached Patriots team had a losing record against the NFC. Despite an overall 74% winning rate against the other conference, last year they went 1-3, this year 2-3.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">In 22 seasons here, Belichick has had only four seasons under .500 against the NFC, two of them the last two years.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "Raise your hand if you had the Patriots leading the division after 11 games." (Note: I would raise my hand to that... #humblebrag.)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 7-4!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. Trivia answer: The Pats finished #1 in scoring differential in 2010 but lost to Mark Sanchez and the Jets in their first playoff game. Boooooo!</span></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-39512963631991324712021-11-15T09:52:00.000-05:002021-11-15T09:52:58.555-05:00Patriots Crush Browns 45-7<p><span style="font-family: arial;">Another dominating performance as the New England Patriots announced their return to relevance with a 45-7 thrashing of the Cleveland Browns. With the win they kept pace with victorious Buffalo in the AFC East and they ticked up to the #6 seed in the AFC (from #7 last week). Next up is a quick-turnaround game in Atlanta this Thursday... a Falcons team that lost 45-3 yesterday.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The game was decided in the first four drives.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Cleveland came out with a good offensive plan, attacking with a great mix of run/pass and going up-tempo to stop the Patriots from substituting. It looked like they weren't going to miss their star running back Nick Chubb at all. The result was an 84-yard touchdown drive.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">In response, the Pats needed a long drive to give their defense a rest and give them time to make adjustments. And they did just that. They converted three crucial third downs, overcame a holding penalty, and drove for an 87-yard touchdown drive of their own. They also took 9:39 off the clock, giving their D what they needed.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The adjustments and the rest paid immediate dividends. Two plays later, Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield threw a terrible interception to Pats safety Kyle Dugger, who returned it to the Browns five yard line. One play later, the Patriots led 14-7, and the rout had begun.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Browns scored the first 7 points because they had a good offensive plan and executed it well. The Patriot scored the next 45 points because they had a good offensive plan <b>and</b> because they made better defensive and offensive adjustments during the game.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">On defense, they switched between 2-gap and 1-gap on the line of scrimmage, they mixed coverages to confuse the Browns, and rallied to make tackles after the catch. And they waited for Cleveland to implode, which they did, drive after drive.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">On offense, they figured out the Browns were over-pursuing, so they went with misdirection and got chunk plays over and over. They also went with quick throws to stop Cleveland's formidable pass rush, and the long drives eventually wore out the Browns D.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Quarteback Mac Jones </b>was commanding yet efficient, completing 19 of 23 (83%) for 198 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 picks, and a 142.1 QB rating. He had some great completions to Hunter Henry and especially to Kendrick Bourne -- a great throw and even better catch for a touchdown.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But in the overall picture, his three completions for third-down conversions on the very first drive of the game were probably the most important of the game. Without those, the game might have been a slogfest. With them, it was a blowout.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Running back Rhamondre Stevenson</b> cut, sprinted, and bulled his way to 100 yards on 20 carries, and drove two runs into the end zone. And long-time special teamer Brandon Bolden is doing great work replacing James White, running three times and catching three passes, for 32 and 38 yards, respectively.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">When Damien Harris returns, this group will be well-suited and prepped for football when the weather turns cold.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Among the <b>receivers</b>, Kendrick Bourne had himself a day. In addition to the great TD catch, he had three end-around runs for 43 yards. Henry got himself two more touchdowns and is the best red-zone threat on the team. And wideout Jakobi Meyers finally, finally got his first touchdown, on a short throw and a nice run to paydirt.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>offensive line </b>was buoyed by the return of Trent Brown, back from injury. They road-graded the Browns defensive, which is really designed to get to the quarterback. Along with fullback Jacob Johnson, they powered a running attack that gained 5.4 yards a carry and allowed just two sacks and two QB hits.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Early in the year people worried about all the hits Mac Jones was taking. Yesterday the Patriots delivered the punishment, hitting the Browns quarterbacks 10 times and sacking them 5 times. They were all over Mayfield, forcing a 56.2 QB rating and his longest completion was just 13 yards.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>D-line</b> did a great job plugging holes and occupying blockers at the line of scrimmage. Davon Godchaux and Christian Barmore are huge run stuffers, and they are rotating in players I've never heard of before (Carl Davis?). With linebackers Matthew Judon and Josh Uche rushing from the outside, it's a formidable combination that gets after the run and the pass.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Speaking of <b>linebackers</b>, Dont'a Hightower continued his improvement, notching six tackles and sharing a sack with Judon. He's not where he was a few years ago, but better now than at the beginning of the year. And Ja'Whaun Bentley led the team with seven tackles, including a big one for a loss when the game was still in doubt.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">In the <b>secondary</b>, Dugger led with six tackles, he had the interception and also another pass defended. The rest of the secondary mostly had tight coverage, with the exception of Jalen Mills, who has struggled as he has moved up the cornerback depth chart. On the other hand, Myles Bryant has flourished with his increased playing time; might be time to get him on the field more.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Special teams</b> weren't as great as what I've read in the media. Twice Jakobi Meyers didn't fair catch a ball and it ended up rolling for more yards (once ending up at the 1 yard line). And Jake Bailey's kickoffs aren't going into/through the end zone like they used to. Not horrible but not as great as what most of the media are portraying. And the team will benefit when return man Gunner Olszewski returns from concussion protocol.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>coaching </b>mismatch was epic. Cleveland had a good plan coming in but didn't appear to make any adjustments. The Patriots had a good plan, too, <b>and</b> they adjusted. The Browns have a talented team -- so 45 unanswered points tells you all you need to know about how their coaches did yesterday.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> The Pats are solidifying their position in the playoff hunt. But they don't have a large margin for error -- a loss this Thursday and they could be out of the playoffs seeding by Sunday. Still, four straight wins and a 6-4 record is pretty good given how they started the year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern: </b>With things rounding into form, it's probably injuries. Harris and Olszewski were out with concussions, Bailey and kicker Nick Folk are on the injury report weekly (and Bailey doesn't look right), and they are still thin at running back and corner.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP: </b>Bourne, mostly because he made more big big plays than the other candidates for this most coveted of awards.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity:</b> Every time the Patriots took over inside their own ten yard line, they drove 90+ yards for a touchdown.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Bonus oddity: </b>The Patriots and Bills scored the same number of points yesterday (45), and they also scored the same number of points in week 1 (16). Just an oddity, nothing earth-shattering.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Double bonus oddity: </b>The Pats are now 6-0 in games I do <b>not</b> attend, and 0-4 in games I <b>do</b> attend. Anyone want to bribe me not to go to the Titans game in a few weeks? Anyone :D</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "If the Patriots were a stock, I'd go long on them."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 6-4!</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-91840804085743917112021-11-08T14:12:00.000-05:002021-11-08T14:12:52.201-05:00Patriots "D"ominate Panthers, 24-6<span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots handled Carolina easily yesterday, topping them 24-6 in a game that wasn't in doubt at any point in the second half. That puts the local 11 at 5-4, just a half-game back of 5-3 Buffalo, who lost to the lowly Jaguars. Next week Cleveland comes to Gillette Stadium, with both teams needing a win to stay in the playoff hunt.</span><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">This game was over before it started because the <b>Patriots coaches out-prepared their counterparts</b> on the other sideline. They correctly assessed the matchups and decided the best ways to attack and defend. Their plans to attack with the running backs, run-blitz to slow down the run and then pressure Carolina QB Sam Darnold, and force the action on special teams where they had both return and coverage advantages -- those worked to perfection.</span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Defense </b>was the order of the day, especially so in the second half. The Pats gave up nothing in the final 30 minutes, with Carolina punting once, turning it over on downs once, and throwing three interceptions. This second-half dominance has become a growing trend.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">In the last <b>three games</b>, the final five opponent drives resulted in these stats: 4 punts, 2 turned over on downs, 6 interceptions, and 1 fumble, and 10 total points scored on them. They lead the league in fourth-quarter scoring differential, more than doubling their opponents scoring in the final frame: 79-35.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>J.C. Jackson</b> was the obvious star of the game, with two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown. <b>Lineman Devon Godchaux</b> had five, count 'em <b>five</b> tackles from the inside line position (almost unheard of given how the Pats play defense), and rookie <b>Christian Barmore</b> knocked down two passes at the line, one of which would have been an easy Panthers touchdown.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>linebackers </b>were much more active, with Dont'a Hightower having perhaps his best game of the year and Jamie Collins making the most of his 16 snaps with two tackles, a pass knocked down, and a ridiculous interception on a fastball thrown from about 8 feet away.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>offensive execution</b> wasn't perfect. They started the game with offensive penalties, and by day's end they would include five pre-snap, two of which were delay of game. They allowed too much pressure on quarterback Mac Jones, with a few free rushers.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">But the <b>running backs</b> dominated Carolina. When the Pats went heavy (with Jakob Johnson at fullback), the Panthers mostly stopped it. However, when they switched to running rookie Rhamondre Stevenson from the spread it was magical. He ended the day with 10 carries for 62 yards and 2 catches for 44 (a stellar average of 8.8 yards per touch). And longtime special teamer Branden Bolden continues to work well in James White's third down role.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The only bad news was that both Stevenson and starting back Damien Harris went out with injuries late.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">On <b>special teams</b>, it seemed the Pats saw something during the game. They started with kickoffs out of the end zone. But midway through the first half they started having Jake Bailey take a short run-up and kick it in the field of play, forcing the Panthers to return it. It worked pretty well, with an average return of less than the 25 yards they would have gotten with touchbacks.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">I'm not sure if they saw lax play by special teams, maybe some key special teamer got injured, could have been a lot of things. But they saw it and adjusted well. The only downside is they tried the same thing on their own kick returns and got Gunner Olszewski concussed and out of the game. (Here's hoping he is back by next week.)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Kicker Nick Folk</b> has now missed two field goal attempts this year: a 56-yarder in the rain and wind against the Bucs, and a 54-yarder in garbage time yesterday. He leads the NFL in scoring and is in the top 10 in made percentage. It's been quite the career resurrection for Folk, whom the Pats picked up off the street early last season.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">As for <b>coaching</b>, it seems the team is hitting its stride. It seems they know who their players are an how to get them in positions to succeed. Their game plans the last four weeks have been excellent from the start of each game. The only concern is the continued issues with pre-snap problems: false starts, too many players on the field, delay of game penalties, and spending timeouts to avoid those last two.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> Currently the #7 seed in the AFC, the once 2-4 Patriots have played themselves back into post-season contention. Unfortunately early losses to the Dolphins and Buccaneers leave them with little margin for error, and the strongest part of their schedule coming up. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">But we can all agree that it's way more interesting to have them in the hunt than it was last year when they were out of it after seven games.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Next week against the Browns will be a tough one. The two things that play in New England's favor are that Cleveland had a big emotional win over a division rival and has to go on the road for the second straight week. Doesn't guarantee anything, but gives the Pats a better chance at a game they need to have.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going problem:</b> Injuries to the running backs. The current formula for winning is to run the ball well, play smart on special teams, be disciplined and opportunistic on defense, and take shots in the passing game when it makes sense. If Harris and Stevenson aren't well enough to play at at least 85% that formula takes a hit.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP:</b> J.C. Jackson, the next cornerback who will leave the Patriots to get a big payday in the off-season :(</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity: </b>In four starts against the Patriots, QB Sam Darnold is 0-4, has completed just 52% of his passes, has 1 touchdown pass and 9 interceptions, and a QB rating of 41.2. If you recall, he was the one who "was seeing ghosts" a few years back in a game the Patriots spanked the Jets.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Bonus oddity: </b>ESPN started tracking how QBs do when they are outside the pocket back in 2009. Since then, Darnold is the first quarterback to have zero completions and two interceptions outside the pocket in a game (he was 0-6 with two INTs).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><i>Note: I usually don't use stats from other outlets, but I called this during the game -- see this post from the Your Patriots Facebook page as proof:</i><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VYl-irHcAMI/YYlz68YCrgI/AAAAAAAAARg/eLrR1azEzMAuzu82VBY0S4SIvGNKa3ILACLcBGAsYHQ/image.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="372" data-original-width="455" height="240" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VYl-irHcAMI/YYlz68YCrgI/AAAAAAAAARg/eLrR1azEzMAuzu82VBY0S4SIvGNKa3ILACLcBGAsYHQ/image.png" width="294" /></a></div><br /><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "2-5 last season and they were done, 2-4 this season and it was just the beginning."<br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 5-4!</span></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-19692741356109605692021-10-31T21:32:00.000-04:002021-10-31T21:32:01.278-04:00Pats Outlast Chargers, Top Them 27-24<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots made great in-game adjustments and outlasted the L.A. Chargers for a 27-24 win. The result moves them to 4-4 on the season, 1.5 games back of the Bills in the AFC East and just outside the playoffs in the AFC (#8 team, top 7 make the post-season). Next week is another road trip, this time to Carolina to take on the Panthers -- losers of four of their last five games.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This game was <b>all about adjustments</b>. L.A. scored touchdowns on two of their first three drives. But in the next eight Chargers possessions, the Patriots score more points (7, on a pick-six) than L.A. did (3). It was a combination of causing offensive confusion, missed opportunities and untimely penalties, and two interceptions by former Charger Adrian Phillips.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Phillips' pick-six was the difference in the game</b>, giving the Patriots a touchdown lead that they made hold up. The secondary in general had tight coverage or no coverage. But it was enough to slow down the Chargers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots <b>offensive line</b> played very well, except for two unfortunate holding calls that brought back big runs. The backs ran for decent yardage and were rarely stopped for short yardage -- and they also held onto the ball with both hands all the time; Ramondre Stevenson never giving up the ball until the official asked for it. (If only Kendrick Bourne had been as careful.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>QB Mac Jones</b> completed passes to eight different receivers, was poised and efficient, and didn't turn the ball over. In fact, for the first time in a while he didn't really put the ball in harm's way. His completion percentage was lower than usual (51.4%) and the yards were down (218), but he looks like what the Patriots usually expect from a quarterback -- protect the football, hit the open receiver, and don't make the big mistake.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Defensively </b>the plan was to get pressure with the front four, which mostly worked. There were a few blitzes, but the Pats seemed hesitant to give up big passing plays. In fact, two of the Chargers three longest plays were runs that broke loose, not pass plays.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Special teams</b> went in the Patriots favor, though not as much of a blowout as last year's game. Nick Folk has been clutch all season, Jake Bailey is consistent, and the coverage and return teams were superior to L.A. all day long.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But in my opinion, this game was about the <b>coaching</b>. The Patriots offense struggled early and got better as the game proceeded. The defense struggled early but basically shut the Chargers down for the last 40 minutes. That comes down to adjustments and in-game coaching.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>The real question going forward is if the Pats should add someone before this Tuesday's trade deadline.</b> Two weeks ago I wrote that if New England lost either of their next two games they should be sellers at the deadline. But they won them both. So should they add someone to make a run at the playoffs?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">My answer is "yes," but with one proviso. Go ahead and add a player or two if you think they can help you this year *and* next season. But not if the player won't help next year. At 4-4 they are on the edge of being in the playoffs. But even if they make the playoffs they are unlikely to win it all this year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">No rookie quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl. And even if the Pats make a run and get to the post-season, they are likely to be a low seed, so it would mean three road wins to get to the big game.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">So if they identify an offensive lineman, linebacker, or cornerback who can help this year -- and who is under contract and can help the team in 2022, too -- then go ahead and pull the trigger. (This also goes for players who you are confident you can re-sign in the off-season, if they aren't already under contract for 2022.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But don't mortgage the future to "go for it all" this year. They've never really done that in the past, anyway, so I don't expect they would do it now. But at 4-4, with a improved O-line and running attack, some momentum on their side, and a good win in Los Angeles, why not make a run and bring in players who can help you now and in the future?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> The next five games aren't easy. They can win at Carolina and they have a Thursday tilt in Atlanta that should go their way. The other three are home games against two home dates against the Browns and Titans (division leader) and a road game at the Bills (division leader).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">They can't go any worse than 3-2 if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. And 4-1 would put them in control of whether they made the post-season, but that's a lot to ask against that level of competition.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But at least we are talking about it and the season isn't a washout at this point :)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest ongoing problem:</b> In relation to any playoff run, the past is the future. The biggest concern will be those close losses to the Cowboys, Buccaneers, and the terrible 1-7 Dolphins. Win any of those games and you're 5-3 and competing for the division.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP:</b> Phillips, who's first INT was a great athletic play, and who's pick-six was the difference in the game. He also defended two passes.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity:</b> A sign of the Patriots offensive improvement is that they averaged 4 punts per game in their first four weeks but just 2.25 punts per game in the last four.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "The P-word is starting to float around in the back of my head."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 4-4!</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-10550384664243063122021-10-24T18:11:00.000-04:002021-10-24T18:11:35.620-04:00Patriots Crush The Jets, 54-13<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots absolutely pasted the Jets, scoring the game's last 23 points to run away with a 54-13 win. The victory puts the Pats just a half-game behind the division leading Bills, who are idle this week. Next up is a trip to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There's praise all the way around today, but it starts with <b>offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels</b>. I'm not always his biggest fan, but he called an excellent game. Ran when he should have, used controlled passes to keep drives alive, took shot plays down the field at the right times, and employed trick plays that caught the Jets defense off-guard.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Not to mention having a great plan coming in, making good adjustments at the half, and using all his players to perfection. It looked like the days of old, the Past scoring on 9 of 10 "real" drives (not including the game-ending kneel downs). This was probably McDaniels' best game since the "old man" left for Tampa -- so kudos to him!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Praise of the offense has to start with the <b>O-line</b>. The Pats shifted Michael Onwenu to right tackle, a position that has been absolutely dreadful this year. He solidified that side and the group gave up five QB hits and one sack, and they also paved the way for 148 yards on the ground. And that was against a very good Jets front seven.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>passing attack</b> was inspired for its creativity. Wideout Kendrick Bourne has found his identity (get it?), grabbing multiple passes for the fifth time in seven games this year. But having him fake a WR screen and throw a pass -- amazing. He's the second wide receiver to throw a TD pass for the Patriots this season, no idea the last time that happened in the NFL.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Additionally, <b>Jakobi Meyers</b> is Mr. Reliable, catching five of seven passes thrown his way, including some tough ones to keep the chains moving. And Brandon Bolden has worked his way nicely into the James White role, leading the team with six catches for 79 yards (and a touchdown). One other note: tight end Hunter Henry is becoming a big threat near the goal line -- he scored again on a tough catch in the back of the end zone.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Quarterback Mac Jones</b> completed a season-low 67% of his passes, but not to knock him, he also had his second-highest QB rating of the year (111.7). In fact, his QB rating for the first five games was 83.4. For the last two games, it's 114.4. He commands the huddle and even ran for a few big plays in this one.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">And not to be forgotten, the <b>running game </b>was potent. Damien Harris was over 100 yards again (106) but most impressive were his 7.6 yards per carry and his determination on two touchdown runs. J.J. Taylor got back on the field and picked up 21 yards and two TDs of his own. Brandon Bolden should stick with pass catching, however, he had two rushes for 0 yards :(</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The defensive star of the game was <b>linebacker </b>Ja'Whaun Bentley. He consistently made the right reads and attacked the Jets, stopping or redirecting running backs before they could get started or dropping into coverage to make Jets QB Zach Wilson go to a different option. I only wish they had more linebacker firepower; but Josh Uche is still nursing an injury and Jamie Collins hasn't played much since he was traded back to the Pats.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Along the <b>defensive line,</b> Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise, and Davon Godchaux took turns stuffing runs before they could get started. This is key, as when teams can run on you, there's just no way to stop their offense. It might be a passing league, but most teams will run it down your throat if they can, and the Pats running defense has been suspect this year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>secondary </b>mostly played a competitive game, with some yards given up but mostly tight coverage. <b>J.C. Jackson</b> played very well, knocking away a pass, staying close to the Jets #1 receiver, and even getting an INT on a great catch along the sideline. Myles Bryant is getting some praise for a sack and a forced fumble late, but he was only okay, giving up a first-down when he lost leverage on a short pass to the flat.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">And as always, <b>safeties </b>Kyle Duggar and Adrian Phillips were near the top of the tackle chart and made significant plays throughout the game. It wasn't perfect, there were some pass interference calls and some wide open receivers. But overall not a bad performance from a unit that was undermanned due to injuries.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">One last thought: still not enough quarterback pressure from the line or the defense in general. But one step a time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Special teams </b>did a great job, with Nick Folk good from 39 and 50 yards. His only field goal miss was the 56-yarder in the rain against the Buccaneers. And Jake Bailey using directional kick-offs to hold the dangerous Jets returners in check. (Note: the Patriots offense was so proficient that he only punted once.) Also, not to be forgotten, returner Gunner Olszewski averaged 15 yards on two punt returns and his first kickoff return was to the 35 yard line.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The coaching staff deserves credit for three key things: (1) the offensive line shuffling, (2) having a better game plan to start the game, and (3) holding things together as the team struggled and the injuries mounted.<br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If the Patriots miss the playoffs they will look back on their opening day loss to the Dolphins. If they make the playoffs, they'll look back at the last two weeks when the offense turned a corner. The Pats scored 96 points the first five weeks of the season. Then they scored 83 in the last two games.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> 3-4 with three really close losses is a lot better than 2-5 and a loss to the terrible Jets. But it'll all go for naught if they don't crank it up for another win in L. A. next weekend. If they can get to .500 next Sunday then they have hope. But if they fall to 3-5, they are done.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern: </b>No longer the offensive line, it's now the health of the secondary. Jonathan Jones will miss at least three weeks, J.C. Jackson was out for some plays against the Jets, and safety Devin McCourty left the game with an injury. Think they could use someone like Stephon Gilmore right about now?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP: </b>So many to choose from, but I'm going with Bentley. Mostly because his most important plays came early, setting up the Patriots offense to dominate.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity: </b>The Jets longest play of the day was 22 yards. The Patriots had </span><b style="font-family: arial;"><u>ten</u></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u> plays</u></b> of 22 yards or more.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Bonus oddity:</b> Bill Belichick has beaten the Jets 35 times in his career, which is the same number of times he has beaten the Buffalo Bills. Those are tied for the NFL record, which BB will undoubtedly own all by himself soon, as the Pats play those two teams twice every year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Double-bonus oddity:</b> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">This season the Patriots have six interceptions against the Jets and four interceptions in their other five games.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Overtime-double-bonus oddity:</b> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">The Pats are 0-4 in games I have attended this year, and 3-0 when I'm not there. (Maybe I should skip the next game I'm scheduled to go to, against Tennessee.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "Win next week and the Pats could be leading the AFC East. If you think the Dolphins can beat the Bills, that is."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 3-4!</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-78761718376937969872021-10-18T13:10:00.000-04:002021-10-18T13:10:39.242-04:00Patriots Lose a Wild One, 35-29 in Overtime<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Pats hung tough yet again and lost a squeaker yet again, falling to the Cowboys 35-29 in overtime. The loss drops them to 2-4, still in second place in the awful AFC East, but they are quickly falling out of any chance to contend for the play... uh, never mind. Next week the Jets visit Gillette, and here's hoping the team can get it's first home victory of the year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Back and forth, up and down, roller coaster, what's your favorite way to describe a game with four lead changes in the last 12+ minutes? I'd say trick or treat, in honor of the season. The teams scored a total of 31 in the first 45-minutes and 33 the rest of the way. The Cowboys made a dozen mistakes (between penalties and coaching miscues), but their talent was enough to overcome those problems against an undermanned Patriots squad.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots are now 2-0 on the road and 0-4 at home. (<b>Trivia question</b>: What is the franchise record for home losses in a season? Answer below.) And the team is proof of how tiny the difference is between winning and losing. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">On the season, the Pats have given up just two more points than they scored and they are 2-4 and going nowhere. The Chargers have </span><b style="font-family: arial;">also</b><span style="font-family: arial;"> given up two more points than they scored, and they are 4-2 and leading their division.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The story of this season will be their inconsistency. Yesterday they scored two TDs in the first quarter and two TDs in the fourth quarter. In the six drives between they ran 21 plays for 69 yards and zero points and had a fumble and a blocked punt. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">You can beat the Jets and Texans that way, but are unlikely to prevail over talented squads like the Cowboys.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But even with all that, they were a Nelson Agholor drop (first play of OT) and a gutless punt on 4th-and-3 in overtime away from maybe pulling it out. Once again, I said it in the stadium at the time, they should have gone for it on 4th-and-3 near midfield. They hadn't stopped the Cowboys since the opening drive of the second half, so punting it away was pretty much giving them the win.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If the Patriots lose either of the next two games, they should be <b>sellers at the trade deadline</b> (November 2). If they drop to 3-5 (or worse) with the bulk of their difficult games to come, they should trade anyone decent who won't be helping them in 2022. Given their play this season, I count 4 winnable games after October, and 7 wins won't get you into the post-season.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It obviously wasn't all bad yesterday; here are some of the better performers:</span></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>QB Mac Jones</b> went 15 of 21 (71%) for 229 yards, two TDs, and one INT (on yet another tipped-ball). His QB rating was 118.9, all of which are impressive in the face of relentless pressure.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>RBs Damien Harris</b> (18 carries for 101 yards, 1 TD) and <b>Rhamondre Stevenson</b> (5 for 23, 1TD) ran well and protected the ball very well (two-hands all the time!).</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>LB Ja'Whaun Bentley</b> was everywhere against the run, with 13 tackles and a forced-fumble at the goal line that kept the score 17-14 at the half.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>S Kyle Duggar </b>made impact stops against the run and got a timely interception in the end zone.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>DE Deatrich Wise Jr</b>. drew two holding calls early and got 6 tackles.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>S Justin Bethel</b>, a special teamer who was pressed into duty at safety, made several big plays (including tipping the pass that Duggar intercepted).</span></li></ul><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Who had a bad day?</span></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>LB Kyle Van Noy</b> got caught in-between coverage and rushing the passer several times.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>O-line</b> still gave up too much pressure: 5 QB hits, 2 sacks, and some unacceptable penalties.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Cornerbacks (other than JC Jackson)</b>: you can't give up 445 yards passing without breakdowns and poor play.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>OC Josh McDaniels</b>, who waits until runs get stuffed before calling play-action instead of anticipating it and taking advantage. Also, two full quarters without points was partially due to poor play calling.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>The entire defensive coaching staff; </b>too many points, too many yards, great on third-down, not good on first- and second-downs, lost contain of Prescott just about every time. And all that includes *two* Cowboys end zone turnovers that bailed them out -- or this game would have been a blowout.</span></li></ul><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> The season was sorta in the balance yesterday. Now it's <b>really</b> in the balance. Lose either of the next two and you should sell off pieces at the trading deadline. Win them both, and maybe you played your way back into things.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern:</b> That the coaches seem to think Tom Brady will be walking through that door. For decades they played close games as if they knew they'd pull it out at the end. But MJ10 isn't TB12, so they can't be punting on 4th-and-short, getting punts blocked, and hoping other teams will soil themselves in big moments.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Jones might well be the quarterback of the future. If so, let him try (and sometimes fail) when the games are on the line.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP: </b>Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy, who did just about everything he could to keep the Patriots in the game. His opening drive gaffes were soooooo Mike McCarthy.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity:</b> There are six NFL teams with five-or-more wins this season; five of them are in the NFC, pending the Bills game tonight.</span></div></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "I think I hear Don Meredith singing, 'Turn out the lights, the party's over.'"</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith, if you can,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 2-4!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. <b>Trivia answer: </b>the 1990 Patriots went 0-8 at home to set a franchise for homefield futility. Interestingly they could break that record this year, as the extra game makes 0-9 possible.</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-44504583877287845422021-10-10T20:14:00.003-04:002021-10-10T20:15:55.167-04:00Patriots *Win* a Squeaker, 25-22 over the Texans<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots hung on and hung on and hung on and then dominated the fourth quarter to pull out a 25-22 win in Houston. The victory leaves them at 2-3, in second place alone behind the 3-1 Bills (their game pending tonight). Next week the red hot Cowboys come to Gillette for Dak Prescott's second tilt against the Pats.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Texans game was sort of a story of the two halves. Houston dominated the first half, though on the scoreboard it was only 15-9. But after Mac Jones started the second half with his lone interception, the Texans drew up a flea-flicker for a touchdown that had them in command at 22-9. The Texans next five possessions ended: punt, punt, missed field goal, punt, and fumble. The Patriots next five possessions ended: punt, field goal, field goal, touchdown, and field goal.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Houston's implosion included a botched fake-ish punt, a blown timeout, a 56-yard field goal attempt by a kicker who couldn't hit on single-number-roulette, and a roughing the passer penalty that extended a Patriots drive. The Pats weren't perfect during that stretch, but they were good enough to come back against a team that seemed to insist that the visitors take it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This game clearly was hangover game from the previous week against the Bucs. But in a game where four of the Patriots starting O-linemen were out with injuries/COVID, where they were down to two RBs at a few points, and where a starting cornerback was inactive, they pulled one out when they probably shouldn't have.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">You've heard that story before -- about 50 times over the last two decades plus. But this is the first one with Mac Jones at the helm.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Once again the Patriots depended on the rookie <b>quarterback</b>. He went 23 of 30 (77%) for 231 yards, one TD and one (bad) INT. But maybe most important, the team made <b>14 </b>first downs on pass plays (or runs by receivers), and just <b>5</b> from the running backs. (Note: on his interception, he missed a wide-open checkdown to a running back for an easy 5-7 yard gain. That's why it was a bad throw.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">He completed passes to seven receivers, and six of them had multiple catches. Also, Jones audibled to good plays several times, and in a game this close did not waste any timeouts with confusion or indecision.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>receivers</b> by and large did a great job, both catching and blocking downfield. Hunter Henry had 6 grabs for 75 yards and a touchdown, Jakobi Meyers had 5 of his own (for 56 yards), but will regret the long pass he dropped down the sideline. And quietly Kendrick Bourne is turning into the best playmaker on offense.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>running backs</b> were limited partially because the number of backs was limited. Damien Harris had yet another fumble, this one just before he entered the end zone for a touchdown. And that sent him to the bench for a while, but even when he came back, a chest injury limited his action for the rest of the game. They brought back Rhamondre Stevenson and who knows, maybe JJ Taylor will be back from the doghouse if the injuries continue to mount.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Pats did run for 126 yards, but it never felt like they could do so when needed. Not surprising given the injuries along the offensive line. But with the trade of Sony Michel, fumble-itis of Harris, Stevenson, and Taylor, and season-ending injury to James White, this group is looking pretty thin at this point.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">In honor of Halloween month, the <b>defense</b> was trick-or-treat. Houston went touchdown-touchdown-field goal to start the game, and their QB had a 156.2 rating for the first half, with a couple of long passes against seven-man defensive backfields.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The secondary got chewed up all half, though I will say I've never seen a player have 10 tackles in the first half, which safety Kyle Duggar did. Some of the throws were either perfect or lucky, but you can't write off all the problems on that. There was too much blitzing without enough pressure, and they couldn't really stop the run much, either.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">What changed? They started using five- and six-man fronts in the second half, sometimes blitzing and sometimes dropping them into coverage. They let the pass rushers loose to speed up the young quarterback, and frankly the Texans had more near misses. Maybe that was just things averaging out. Everything close went Houston's way in the first half, everything close went the Pats way in the second half.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Among the defenders, both only Duggar and linebacker Matthew Judon stood out. Judon had 2 sacks, 3 QB hits, and just caused havoc for the Houston offense. Oh, and Jamie Collins came off the street to notch a huge sack in the fourth quarter; good to have him back, for the third time :)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Special teams</b> was a blowout in favor of the Patriots. Nick Folk booted four field goals, including <b>two</b> 52-yarders and the game winner. The opposing kicker missed two extra points, missed a 56-yarder, and sent a kickoff out of bounds. Punter Jake Bailey averaged 47 yards net, while his counterpart averaged just 27.3 yards, and after a bad "trick play" call booted it off his own team's helmet (for 0 yards).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But the biggest mismatch was in <b>head coaches</b>. Bill Belichick stayed calm and kept his team in position to take advantage of any miscues. Texans head man David Culley had his team ready to go, but he wasted several timeouts, foolishly tried a 56-yard field goal, and went conservative too early in the second half.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots coaching wasn't great, but it was better than the opposition.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> 2-3 keeps hope alive for a competitive season. Unfortunately the easier part of the schedule is over, so they'll have to play better in the coming weeks if they plan to finish over .500. Dallas won't be an easy game, but they have to start pulling out games where they can, any way they can.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern:</b> Most definitely the offensive line now. The COVID absences should be back next week. But they haven't played well since Trent Brown got injured.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP:</b> Nick Folk. Two 52-yarders kept them in the game, and he finished the job with a 21-yard kick at the end.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity:</b> Jakobi Meyers now has 116 receptions for 1,390 yards in his career without a touchdown catch. Those numbers are an NFL record. (The irony is he has thrown two touchdown <b>passes</b> in his career!)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(Note: to the best of my knowledge, Meyers is also the only player who's name I have misspelled on this blog. My apologies, Jakobi.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "If they turn things around and just miss the playoffs, will the Bucs or the Dolphins loss sting more?"</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 2-3!</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-33515515028705642812021-10-05T23:30:00.001-04:002021-10-05T23:30:44.531-04:00Patriots Lose Squeaker to Bucs & TB12, 19-17<span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots played better but it wasn't enough to top the Super Bowl champs in Tom Brady's return to Gillette. The 19-17 loss drops them to 1-3 and into a three-way tie for second/last place in the AFC East. Next up is a trip to Houston to take on the reeling Texans.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">It seems apparent to me at this point that the Patriots were looking past the Saints toward this showdown. And of course, it went as expected. Their game plan, in-game adjustments, and performance under pressure were all much better against the Bucs than the Saints.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Given the lateness of this entry, I'll just cover a few topics.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>1. Should have gone for it on 4th-and-3</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Live, at the stadium, in real time, before they kicked the ball, I said this to the folks around me. Apparently the analytics say that attempting the field goal gave the team a 42% chance of winning, whereas going for it held just a 34.5% chance of a victory.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">But the analytics don't take a few things into account:</span></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">A rainy and windy night makes the kick much tougher</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The previous two drives: 10 points and a whopping 9.5 yards per play</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Even if the kick was good, TB (and TB12) would have had 50 seconds and two timeouts to go about 45 yards and try a field goal to win it anyway.</span></li></ul></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">In Super Bowl 49, Belichick famously did not call timeout with the Seahawks threatening to run it in for a winning touchdown. He did this because he sensed confusion on the Seattle sideline and thought a timeout would have helped them. In that case, even though the conventional wisdom was to take the timeout, as head coach his job was to decide if that was right for the game situation.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />IMO, he blew this one. Some theorize that he was protecting the young quarterback, allowing either himself or his kicker to take the blame if the field goal was no good. But that's bogus in my book. The game flow and situation said it was best to go for it. And it was actually important because there is a massive difference between a 1-3 and a 2-2 record.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">2. Mac Jones won the QB battle</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Jones played well in the face of yet more pressure. The O-line allowed 12 quarterback hits and four sacks, and yet Jones completed 77.5% of his passes and got two touchdowns and just one interception (under pressure, naturally). He also audibled to the right play several times and twice he avoided the rush when blitzers came untouched up the middle.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Also impressive was his ability to overcome not one, but two, holding calls on the same drive. They forced him to convert a first-and-20 and also a second-and-20 later in the drive. He was poised, took the plays he could make, and converted both to keep possession.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Brady didn't play great, but of course, just like when he was here, he came up with the plays he needed to win.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">3. Matthew Judon can blow stuff up</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Judon is a beast against the pass. He had two quarterback hits, one sack, two tackles for a loss, and drew a key penalty on a 50-yard pass by the Bucs. He does lose outside contain against the run, but I hope that doesn't get him in the doghouse because he is so effective against the pass.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">4. Josh McDaniels is still mediocre, IMO</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Once McDaniels realized the Patriots couldn't run he finally adjusted with play-action on early downs. The problem is it took him way too long to make that adjustment. In the first half they ran the ball on first down 6 times for -14 yards (including a penalty). McDaniels needs to figure out these things faster and adjust quicker.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Once he went play-action the Patriots basically shredded the Tampa defense with short passes most of the rest of the game. In the stands we were calling for that after the first two or three drives -- not sure why we can see what the offensive coordinator can't.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">I give him credit for the two trick plays and eventually abandoning the run. But if he'd gone pass-heavy one drive earlier it might have gotten the points they needed to win.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>5. The offensive line flat out stinks</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">As a team the Patriots had 8 rushes for -1 yard. And a wide receiver got 4 yards on an end around, so the rest of the runs totaled -5 yards. Please pause for a moment to consider just how hard it is to end up with negative rushing yards. Especially in a league that stacks defenses to stop the <b>pass</b>.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">As if that wasn't enough, they gave up 4 sacks and 12 quarterback hits, and it would have been much worse if Jones hadn't thrown the ball so quickly. Trent Brown's injury doesn't explain it all. Center David Andrews isn't playing well, Brown's replacement tandem have been horrifyingly bad, and left tackle Isaiah Wynn stacks one dreadful game after another.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Does anyone have Dante Scarnecchia's cell number on speed dial? Remember that when he retired the first time the O-line was fine the next year and imploded the year after. That prompted BB to call Scar out of retirement. Well, this is the second year since his second retirement, and it looks like the same pattern.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">(And note; Wynn and left guard Michael Onwenu are on the COVID list, so this isn't likely to get better this Sunday against Houston.)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>6. Problems with the little things</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The team is still making basic mistakes they should have corrected by now. Poorly timed penalties (Matthew Slater, O-line holds), yet another time out because they only had 10 men on defense, a penalty because they had <b>12</b> men on defense, and they lost the turnover battle 2-0.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Belichick teams are famous for avoiding these pitfalls. And they can't make any more excuses about the missing/extra players on defense. Someone needs to be punished for this; it can't keep happening.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>7. I didn't see the television coverage, but...</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Who has their "tongue out Steve Belichick" costume on order for Halloween?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div><b>Where does that leave us?</b> 1-3 and hoping to catch fire and get a sniff of a playoff run. The pity is they should have won against Miami and could have beaten the Bucs, which would have given them a 3-1 record and a share of the division lead. Even if they had split those games, 2-2 sounds a lot more hopeful than 1-3.</div><div><br /></div><div>Unfortunately their offensive line is in even deeper trouble, with COVID taking a toll this week. The Texans aren't good, but at this point no game looks like an easy win.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Biggest on-going concern: </b>The Offensive Line is now the biggest problem on the team. Penalties and turnovers are big. But if they don't improve up front, Mac Jones might not make it through the season.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Non-QB MVP:</b> Judon, a man among boys.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Statistical oddity: </b>In addition to beating all 32 teams, Tom Brady's victory over Belichick marks the 100th head coach he has topped in his NFL career. (<b>Trivia question: </b>who was the NFL head coach Brady beat in his first NFL start? Answer below.)</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "This loss was expected; the one to the Dolphins will haunt them later in the year."</div><div><br /></div><div>Keep the faith,</div><div><br /></div><div>- Scott</div><div><br /></div><div>PS. 1-3!</div><div><br /></div><div>PPS. Trivia Answer:</div><div>V</div><div>V</div><div>V</div><div>V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />The first game Tom Brady won as a starter in the NFL came over none other than Jim "Playoffs?!?!" Mora, a 44-13 drubbing of his Colts.</div></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-69737677269984175012021-09-26T20:54:00.000-04:002021-09-26T20:54:08.488-04:00Sloppy Patriots Fall To Saints, 28-13<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots fell to the Saints, 28-13, in a messy game that won't make the highlight reels for either franchise. The loss dropped them to 1-2, a game behind division-leading Bills. Next week the Buccaneers come to town, sporting some quarterback and tight end who used to play here.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This game was a huge blowout in all but the final score (which was a blowout but not huge). The Saints missed two field goals and went way too conservative too early in the second half. That's the only reason the Patriots lone touchdown got them to within one score of tying things up.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I thought before the game the <b>Patriots needed to win the turnover battle</b> to win the game. But they lost it, 3-0 (and 4-0 if you consider the blocked punt a turnover, which I always do). All three official turnovers were Mac Jones interceptions, but only one of those was on him (the first one). The other two came on (1) a tipped ball that should have been caught instead, and (2) a desperation throw at the end of the game.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">And the turnover battle wasn't the only problem. Here were the <b>offensive issues</b> in summary:</span></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Jones got hit 11 times and sacked twice</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">They ran for just 49 yards (Jones was the leading rusher)</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Jonnu Smith dropped multiple passes and caused an interception</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Brandon Bolden was used way too often with the game in question</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Really poor execution on every single screen pass</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Most of the receivers can't get separation quick enough</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Still no speed threat so teams just load up short zones and blitz</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Almost all of Mac Jones' throws with the wind sailed long</span></li></ul><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Things were slightly better on <b>defense</b>, but by no means great:</span></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">They must have missed five sacks on a pocket quarterback</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Some good run stuffs were offset by gashing runs in key situations</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">The secondary looked overmatched by mediocre WRs</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">They lost discipline against the Wildcat offense (again!)</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Had trouble getting off the field except when N.O went conservative</span></li></ul><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Special teams</b> wasn't pretty, either:</span></div></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Kicked off out of bounds, second time in two weeks</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">A Saints defender came free on another punt and blocked it</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Angled a punt to go out of bounds but it bounced into the end zone instead</span></li></ul><div><span style="font-family: arial;">As for <b>coaching</b>, they needed to recognize that Jones had trouble throwing with the wind and call shorter routes going that direction. The blocked punt was likely a film-study issue the Pats should have corrected. 18 penalties through three games is way above the norm for New England. And they had yet another slow start on offense, indicating their game plans coming in aren't up to snuff.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And for the love of my Aunt Loretta, why in the world was Bolden taking so many snaps with the game still in doubt? The team's mantra this year should be: "When in doubt, go with youth." JJ Taylor should have gotten those snaps. At least he would have given them a chance at a decent play.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Who *is* playing well, or at least improving? Wideout Jacobi Meyers, linebackers Matthew Judon and Ja'Whaun Bentley, defensive tackles Lawrence Guy Jr. and Davon Godchaux, corner JC Jackson, and kicker Nick Folk. Other than that, every player needs to get better, including longtime stalwarts Dont'a Hightower and Devin McCourty.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">It's obvious the team won't have nearly the level of success I thought they'd have before the season began. So... </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>W</b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>here does that leave us?</b> 1-2 with two home losses isn't where they need to be. (<b>Trivia question</b>: when was the last year the Patriots started the season 0-2 at home? Answer below.) With the defending Super Bowl champs due in town next Sunday, a 1-3 record is well within the realm of possibility. Time to get it together or start preparing for 2022.</span></div></div><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern:</b> The overall sloppiness of their play. Too many penalties, loose with the football, missing assignments, costly missed tackles, and sooo many special teams gaffs. I know, the health of James White and the teams seeming inability to stop the run are big. But if they don't clean things up nothing else will matter.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP:</b> Yeeesh, I guess Meyers because he was the one reliable receiver they had (9 catches for 95 yards). But really, this is like choosing the best rotten apple in the bunch :(</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity:</b> For his career, New Orleans quarterback Jameis Winston throws an interception on 3.5% of his drop backs, a very high number these days. But against Bill Belichick, he's thrown no interceptions in 67 career attempts.</span></p><p><b style="font-family: arial;">Water-cooler wisdom:</b><span style="font-family: arial;"> "A year that held the promise of mirroring 2001 looks more like a repeat of 2000."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 1-2!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. <b>Trivia answer</b>:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />The last time the Pats started 0-2 at home was 2000, when they had a rookie quarterback on the roster who sorta made something of himself.</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-44610878253035018052021-09-19T20:07:00.000-04:002021-09-19T20:07:12.327-04:00Patriots Dominate the Jets 25-6<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots took the Jets to the woodshed, beating them handily 25-6 in New York. The win puts the locals in a three-way tie for first place with the Dolphins and Bills, all standing at 1-1. Next week they play the trick-or-treat Saints, who won in a laugher week 1 and got schooled in week 2.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>Pats defense</b> dominated this game. At the half, rookie Jets QB Zach Wilson had as many passes completed to the Patriots as to his own team (3). By game's end they had intercepted four passes, sacked Wilson four times, and the Jets coaches called a bunch of running plays when they were way behind -- effectively agreeing that they couldn't do anything through the air.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">After two games, the New England defense is tied for the <b>second-best scoring defense</b> in the league, giving up just 23 points (Carolina has given up 21). Their secondary played great yesterday, the front seven made more tackles than the DBs, a good sign, and for the season they're allowing just 29% third-down conversions (7 for 24).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Corner <b>JC Jackson</b> played amazing, with two INTs and two passes knocked down, not to mention blanket coverage all game long. Safety <b>Devin McCourty</b> had an interception of his own, was third on the team with five tackles, and also knocked the first INT of the day to Jackson. And Adrian Phillips makes plays every week, a great signing from San Diego (or was it Los Angeles?) in the 2019 off-season.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The front seven improved over the previous week, though they still gave up some gash runs. The <b>linebackers</b> in particular were much better; <b>Ja'Whaun Bentley</b> and <b>Dont'a Hightower</b> led the team in tackles with eight and six, respectively. Hightower also made a few great run forces. <b>Josh Uche </b>and <b>Matt Judon</b> were more active, getting closer in the backfield, and Uche ending up with two sacks to Judon's one.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Jets did run the ball okay, but <b>Christian Barmore</b> and <b>Devon Godchaux</b> are making the correct reads and stuffing the right gaps on more plays. <b>Lawrence Guy</b> tied for third in tackles and honestly the results against the run haven't been what I'd expect given the level of play. Some lost outside contain explains a bit of it, but the problems on gashing inside runs are hard to diagnose.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">On offense, rookie <b>QB Mac Jones</b> completed over 70% of his passes for the second week in a row, going 22 of 30 for just 186 yards, 0 touchdowns, but unlike his counterpart, 0 interceptions. So far he seems to understand which players are likely to be open, takes the heat well, and his performance against the blitz probably means less blitzing going forward.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>running game</b> wasn't as good as it was last week, totaling just 101 yards. But <b>Damien Harris</b> had some tough runs, especially his 26-yard touchdown, on which no fewer than <b>eight</b> Jets defenders failed to bring him down. <b>James White</b> was used as a switch-up back, running successfully out of passing formations, and hanging onto the ball on a wicked hit on one pass reception.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>O-line</b> hasn't been as impressive as they were advertised to be this year. Isaiah Wynn had a really rough day, with a whiff on one sack, and two penalties. But worse than that has been the play of the two replacements for the injured Trent Brown: <b>Yasir Durant and Justin Heron</b>. The team has been switching between the two, and finding nothing but problems. Neither can handle outside rushers so they need help with chipping tight ends or backs. And runs in that direction just aren't going as far they are to the other side. Here's hoping Brown is back soon; because aside from Wynn, the rest of the O-line is playing well.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>receiving</b> duties were well spread-out: six players had two catches or more. No touchdowns among this group, but the longest catches by each player is telling: White's was 28 yards, Jacobi Meyers' was 24, Jonnu Smith's was 19, and Hunter Henry's was 32. That shows they aren't all short passes, there are some shots down the field, which is important in keeping the defenses honest.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Special teams</b> were a mixed bag. <b>Nick Folk</b> made all four field goals but missed an extra point. <b>Jake Bailey</b> punted well, especially his 59-yarder with no return -- but his kickoffs were short and the team gave up way too many yards on kickoff returns.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>coaches </b>had a stellar game. The defensive game plan was outstanding, applying pressure to the young quarterback and waiting for him to turn the ball over. And on offense, the Pats were bottled up early but switched up with some misdirection that paid big dividends against the aggressive Jets D.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">They got a better result this time than the last time they faced a Jets team in New York (well, New Jersey) in week #2 with a rookie QB. (<b>Trivia question: </b>can you name the quarterback who beat them in this scenario? Answer below.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> Bill Belichick always said the second game of the season is the most important, so you knew he'd put a lot on winning this one. The offense is improving, the defense is definitely improving, and the special teams needs to redouble their efforts. 1-1 is okay for now, a lot better than 0-2.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Saints won big the first week and lost big this week. It'll be interesting to see what team shows up at Foxboro next Sunday... I'll be there to greet them :)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern:</b> The health of Trent Brown. His replacements have been poor and his injury was reported as a calf strain. If he can return soon, it'll be a huge boon to the team's pass protection and running game.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP:</b> Nick Folk; four field goals and sets a Patriots record with 32-straight made field goal attempts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity:</b> Folk missed his first two field goal attempts for the Patriots and made the next 32.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "Looks like games will be a struggle early on, but they are progressing each week."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 1-1!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. Trivia answer:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />It was Mark Sanchez who beat them in week 2 of the 2009 season.</span></p><p><br /></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-54621504350486670072021-09-12T23:01:00.004-04:002021-09-12T23:01:57.547-04:00Patriots Fall To Dolphins, 17-16<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots dropped a very winnable game, 17-16 to the Dolphins. The loss drops them into a three-way tie for last place in the division, all other looking up at the mighty Dolphins and their 1-0 record. Next week is a trip to NYC to take on the Jets, here's hoping they can straighten out their issues and take that one to even their record.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I don't have time for the type of in-depth analysis I'd usually do. But it isn't really necessary. The Patriots should win games where their offense outgains the opponent 393 yards to 259, where they rush for one yard more per carry, where their QB is 20 ratings points better, where they complete more passes (29) than the other team attempted (27), where they hold the other team to 36% on third down while converting 69% of their own, and where the other team has just two decent drives all day and only scores 17 points.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">So how did they lose?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Penalties, especially the untimely ones. Twice they took field goals after penalties cost them a realistic chance at touchdowns. The Pats were penalized 84 yards to the Dolphins 28... yikes!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Turnovers, especially the last one. Two young running backs will be running laps this week. Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled his second NFL carry, and mostly rode the pine the rest of the day. But even with all the mistakes, the late fumble by Damien Harris -- at the Miami 5 yard line with 3:00 left in the game -- *that* was a killer.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If he holds onto the ball, they have a great chance at a touchdown. Hell, they can kneel on it three times and kick the field goal to win at that point. The <b>only</b> thing he couldn't do was turn it over, which he did.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Mac Jones wasn't to blame, the receivers weren't to blame, and the defense wasn't to blame. It all falls squarely on the penalties and turnovers -- things that drive Bill Belichick crazy.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I might write more about this later in the week, but probably not (I'm on my first vacation week since before the pandemic -- and I need the R&R).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Most likely I'll be back to my normal analysis next week; just don't have the time this week.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But some quick thoughts:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">1. Matthew Judon is a beast, but lost contain on one long run and had a stupid 15-yard penalty. So played great but BB has enough to humble him this week.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">2. Jones was great against pressure, throwing a very catchable ball even when getting hit.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">3. Glad to have James White back; he had a fantastic day running and receiving.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">4. I have no idea how Nick Folk ended up as the kicker for this game. I can't keep track of the moves they make with him and Quinn Nordin. But Folk was solid, and I guess that's all that matters.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">5. More of Josh Uche, please. The guy destroyed a blocker for a sack and just seems to have a knack for getting into the backfield quickly.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">6. The new tight ends and receivers look really really good. Agholor did get a few deep shots and the other receivers were key in the controlled passing game.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 0-1!</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-90622400602321792752021-09-11T21:17:00.000-04:002021-09-11T21:17:13.799-04:00Patriots Preview 2021: The Schedule<p><span style="font-family: arial;">And finally, my latest futile attempt to predict the winner of each of the Patriots 17 games this year, as usual, broken up into quarters of the season (with a bonus Overtime round for the extra game).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(Note: for those keeping score at home, the closest I ever got was in 2007, when I predicted they'd lose the Ravens game and go 15-1. Rex Ryan screwed that up -- he was the Ravens D-coordinator that called time out and gave the Patriots a second chance to convert a fourth down, which of course they did, en route to a 16-0 season.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>First Quarter</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots host the <b>Dolphins </b>to start the season tomorrow. Honestly I'd feel better about this if Cam Newton was starting, because Miami head coach Brian Flores is an excellent defensive tactician and it's Mac Jones' first game. But I have to predict a Patriots <b>win</b>, because otherwise the 'Phins can't be the first 17-loss team -- and that is my dream :)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">(</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Trivia question</b>: Prior to Mac Jones on Sunday, who was the last rookie to start a game for the Patriots at quarterback? Answer below.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Next week is the <b>Jets</b>, in New York, and the Pats shouldn't have any trouble at all <b>winning </b>this one. A young QB against a Belichick defense, and a team that finished 2-14 last year... Not. A. Problem.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Saints come to Foxboro the following Sunday. This worries me a bit because Sean Payton is so good. But I suspect BB will have plenty of surprises in store for turnover-machine Jameis Winston, the N.O. quarterback. Put it down as a <b>win</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Then some guy named Brady brings his <b>Buccaneers </b>to town for a Sunday night tilt to start October. It should be an epic game, and the Bucs have to travel across the country the week before to take on the Rams. Much as I'd like to predict a Patriots win, I think the older Tampa players will be fresh at this early point in the season, and their defense will school Mac Jones to some degree, so it's the first <b>loss </b>of the year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Second Quarter</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Pats travel to Houston next to take on the downward trending <b>Texans</b>. Houston looks pretty awful, and the continuing legal issues with QB Deshaun Watson left them with Tyrod Taylor under center. Another <b>win </b></span><span style="font-family: arial;">for our hometown team.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">And despite what you saw on Thursday, I don't actually think the <b>Cowboys </b></span><span style="font-family: arial;">that great; they are always more smoke and mirrors than actual team. In fact, they haven't been great since the mid-1990s. Belichick's record against the NFC is stellar, so mark this down as another <b>win</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>J-E-T-S </b>come to town after a week off to double-plan for the Patriots. It won't make a difference; they'll take another beating in Foxboro, chalk up another </span><b style="font-family: arial;">victory </b><span style="font-family: arial;">for the Pats.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">For Halloween the Patriots travel to La La land where they'll take on the improving <b>Chargers</b>. Second week in a row they'll have to play a team coming off the Bye. Given the travel and the extra time to prepare, San Die... I mean L.A. could be tough. Young QB Justin Herbert shouldn't be intimidated, he'll be over 20 starts by then. I foresee a <b>loss </b>here.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Third Quarter</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Pats open November with a contest against the <b>Panthers </b>in Carolina. It's tough to know how it'll go, but BB's good record against the NFC coupled with his defensive domination of new quarterback Sam Darnold (when he was with the Jets) should be enough to get the <b>win</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I hesitate to say it, but the following week the <b>Browns </b>will give the Patriots some trouble. They have easy games against the Bengals and Lions surrounding the Pats game, and they are a serious playoff contender. Something tells me this will be a <b>loss</b>, one of the tougher ones to take this year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">On the other hand, I don't see the Pats having much trouble with the <b>Falcons </b>on their only Thursday night game of the year. Atlanta has three road games surrounding this one at home, and no team handles the short week better than New England. Atlanta's got speed; but Thursday night games are often slugfests, and the Patriots are better prepared for that. <b>Win</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The <b>Titans </b>swing up for a game the next Sunday. Patriots have 10 days to prepare and Belichick will have revenge on his mind from the playoff loss two seasons ago. This will be a very close game but the extra prep time swings the game to a Patriots <b>win</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Fourth Quarter</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The last part of the season begins with a tough road game in <b>Buffalo</b>. I expect the Patriots to split with the Bills, but oddly that each team will lose at home. Buffalo has tough road games sandwiching this one (New Orleans and Tampa Bay). They won't take their eye off the ball, but the Patriots actually play the Bills tougher in their stadium than their own. Pats <b>win</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">After a Bye week, the local 11 travels to Indy to take on the Colts. The result probably depends on who is the quarterback by then, as newcomer Carson Wentz has had injury problems, including this off-season. Both teams are coming off their Bye week, and I expect the Pats offense to start slow (as it traditionally does) after the Bye. Put it in as the Patriots fourth <b>loss</b>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If I give the <b>Bills </b>a loss at home, then they'll win the rematch at Gillette. Patriots <b>lose </b>the day after Christmas :(</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">"I foresee a <b>Jaguars </b>loss to start the new year," I read that in a fortune cookie one time. Young quarterback with enough film for BB to break down his tendencies? Sounds like w<b>in </b>#11 for the Pats!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Overtime</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If those pesky Dolphins *are* 0-16 by this point, then I'll fly to Miami and go to the game just to watch them lose #17! But alas, I doubt it. However, by then Mac Jones will be well established and Miami should be playing out the string. I know south Florida has been tough on the Patriots -- but maybe, just maybe that was a Brady thing. Fingers crossed -- <b>victory </b>will be ours!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Summary</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">For those of you who struggle with math, that puts the Pats at 12-5. Clearly a playoff team, probably competing for the division crown.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Is all that expecting too much from the young QB? Maybe. But in reality, my expectations have more to do with improved offensive weapons and a vastly improved linebacking corps on defense.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Time will tell; what are your thoughts?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 0-0!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. Trivia answer...</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />V<br />Jacoby Brissett, who started two games when Tom Brady was suspended and Jimmy Garopollo was injured in 2016.</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-26270819750241572922021-09-10T13:29:00.000-04:002021-09-10T13:29:11.774-04:00Patriots Preview 2021: Special Teams & Coaching<p><span style="font-family: arial;">And we are on to the special teams and coaching. Here are my thoughts on those areas.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">1. Kicking Themselves?</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Will the Patriots regret going with rookie Quinn Nordin as their placekicker? He was inconsistent in the preseason, hitting some long field goals and missing some short ones.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I think the team sees a pretty easy schedule early on and they are using the first three games as an audition for Nordin. They have Nick Folk on the practice squad in case Nordin can't handle the pressure. But if he can, he'd be a big improvement over Folk, who lacks the leg to hit anything very long at all.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Additionally, it could take the pressure off punter Jake Bailey, who has to kickoff because of Folk's age and lack of depth on his kicks.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">2. Returners</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Gunner Olszewski was the Pro Bowl kick returner last year, and it was well deserved. He improved a lot during the year, and could be better this year with more experience and knowledge of his teammates.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Matthew Slater and Justin Bethel are back, both playing key roles in kick coverage. Bethel has been better than Slater the last few seasons, which is impressive because Slater has made the Pro Bowl himself about 3,000 times.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Bailey is invaluable, both punting (a Pro Bowler, too) and with his directional kickoffs.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">3. Coaching 'Em Up</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">My blogging was truncated last year, so I didn't get to mention one of the bigger stories of 2020: the replacement of long-time offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia. In fact, the Patriots offensive line played very well. But apparently it took two men to replace Scar: Col Popovich and Carmen Bricillo were here last year. And Billy Yates was added this year as an Assistant O-line coach, I guess Scar had extremely big shoes to fill.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I wish the team would decide on a defensive play-caller. In the preseason it still appeared that Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo were splitting time at it. By now I'd expect they would know who did a better job.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">And I will say that the tight ends didn't show much of anything under Nick Caley last year. I hope he does better with better players. Because if this talented group doesn't do well, it'll be a mark against his coaching acumen. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>4. Back To Basics</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I think Bill Belichick relishes the chance to take his team back to basics. Ball security, controlled passing game, stop the run, good situationally (third downs, 2:00 drills, etc.), defensive flexibility, solid kicking game, and players who will run the scheme as he envisions it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">That is how the Patriots won their first three Super Bowls. But since 2007 it had become high-flying offense with defense that tried to hold on and special teams that tried not to make mistakes. They won three Lombardi trophies during that time, but there is no way he liked the game against Seattle (really bad in the last 2:00 of each half) or the Falcons (turnovers).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The last Super Bowl over the Rams was more to his taste. Stifling defense and an offense that made no mistakes and took advantage of the one real opportunity it had.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I suspect BB will like getting back to BB-football. Year 1 of that starts on Sunday</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>Next up: The Schedule!</u></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS 0-0!</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-17373277130049072442021-09-10T13:26:00.001-04:002021-09-11T22:43:03.545-04:00Pats Preview 2021: The Defense<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots didn't just improve on offense. The defense looks a lot better overall, though the absence of corner Stephon Gilmore is a glaring problem.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Here is how the D got better and how they'll look different than last season.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">1. Improvement At (Nearly) Every Position</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The front seven is much improved across the board. Free agent lineman Davon Godchaux and rookie lineman Christian Barmore both look like perfect fits for a 4-3 Belichick defense. Tough, big, run stuffers who can one- or two-gap and allow the team to let the linebackers and safeties run free to the ball.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The linebackers went from non-existent (they actually started 1 linebacker twice last season!) to a huge strength. Dont'a Hightower returned from a COVID-year opt-out, Kyle Van Noy came back after a year in Miami, second-year 'backer Josh Uche looks like a play-destroyer, and free agent Matthew Judon (from Baltimore) made play after play in the preseason.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">This group is so good that Harvey Langi flashed in the preseason and Ja'Whaun Bentley looked great -- and neither cracked the starting lineup!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">More later on the secondary, the one place where the team took a step back</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">2. MJ9</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The two MJ's, Mac Jones and Matthew Judon, will be the most significant off-season acquisitions. Judon was a play destroyer in the preseason, showed a great understanding of the defensive concepts, and even though he's undersized, he did a good job holding the edge against the run.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">For the old-timers here, Judon looks like Adalius Thomas with a coaching staff more willing to use his versatility and to blitz on more plays. In other words, Judon looks like the real deal; so watch out for #9 on your scorecard.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">3. 'Backers Are Back</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Last year's linebackers were an embarrassment. When Bentley is your best and you have to play a rookie safety (Kyle Duggar) at LB for multiple games, you know you've shorted yourself at the position.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Bring back Hightower and Van Noy, add Judon, and get another year of improvement from Bentley and especially Uche, and suddenly it looks like a real strength.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">And it's important, because Belichick has traditionally based his defense a line that occupies space and players and linebackers who rush the passer, hold the edge against the run, and fly to the football. It was tough to watch last year. This year it'll look a lot more like a normal BB defense.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">4. Safety Switch</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Patrick Chung retired after quite the career and three Super Bowl championships. But the Patriots are about as ready as they can be for the transition.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Adrian Phillips and Kyle Duggar are both in their second years with the team, and both picked up the defense quickly and were tough on receivers over the middle. Duggar did play some linebacker last year, which makes me respect him even more, because he isn't really built to take on tight ends or O-linemen.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">5. The Elephant In The Room: Cornerback</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">With Gilmore sidelined to start the year (out until at least week 6), JC Jackson is your new #1 corner, with a bunch of JAGs ("just another guy") behind him. Many in the media speculate that Gilmore is sorta-holding-out, claiming an injury so he only has to play half a year to earn his dough.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I'm not convinced; he'd make a lot more next season if he played the entire year. But if it's true, then the Patriots get him back for the tougher part of their schedule and any potential playoff games. Not all bad.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">If Jackson is the best corner, expect him to take their opponent's #2 receiver and the team to double-up on the #1. They've done that with players as great at Darrelle Revis, when it made sense, and it isn't a bad way to go. It mostly means the other team has to beat you with their #3 wideout, and not many teams have enough talent to make that work.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">6. Putting It Together</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The new big guys on the D-line should shore up the running defense, which was suspect last year. Though IMO it was mostly suspect because they didn't have any decent linebackers. So pairing the new linemen with LBs could make the front seven something special.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The vastly improved linebacking corps, along with the hitters at safety, should be able to help cover up the issues at corner. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">New England might have the most talented front seven in the league. And given that, I don't expect as much blitzing as last year. The 2020 team had to take chances that the 2021 team shouldn't need to take to slow down teams.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Next post: Special Teams, Coaching, and The Schedule!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 0-0!</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-78889724186618419472021-09-10T11:58:00.001-04:002021-09-10T11:58:43.727-04:00Pats Preview 2021: The Offense<p><span style="font-family: arial;">Hello all, how have you been of late? Quite the off-season, wasn't it?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots didn't take their 2020 sub-.500 season lying down. They spent a record amount on free agents, welcomed back several COVID-year opt-outs, and drafted their QB of the future... or is that the present?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Here are the the key points on offense as we head into a season with lots of new faces, what they mean to the team, and how they are likely to integrate the new folks and scheme things up for the rookie QB.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">1. Improvement At Every Position</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It's basically inarguable that the Patriots improved every position group on offense. In 2020 they had among the worst quarterback play, the least talented wideouts (especially after Julian Edelman got injured), and had the least productive tight ends by a country mile.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Even the running backs and offensive line are better this season, even though they were both very good last year.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">2. MJ10</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Rookie quarterback Mac Jones beat out Cam Newton for the starting gig. He seemed to grasp the offense quickly, including blitz adjustments and ball security -- both very important to the Patriots throughout Bill Belichick's time here.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Jones' skillset is more in line with how the Patriots liked to run their offense with the old man who used to play here. Quick reads and passes, largely short throws to the middle of the field and screen passes to avoid the rush.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">He won't burn many teams with his feet, but his pocket awareness was good in the preseason and should improve with experience.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">3. On The Run</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Third-year back Damien Harris looks completely ready to take over the starting role, replacing traded back Sony Michel. J.J. Taylor is the change-of-pace back who might have his eye on James White's third-down role -- though White is back for another season.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson looked amazing, though most of his yards came against the second- and third-teamers in the preseason. And note: r</span><span style="font-family: arial;">ookie backs rarely get much playing time here because they have to understand the blitz pickup to get on the field.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Also, not to be overlooked, blocking back Jakob Johnson is back from injury and was a beast in the preseason. It looked like he missed hitting people and wanted to make up for lost time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Pats should lean heavily on the running game early in the year, both to control the clock and protect the young QB. Harris can do it all but they will rotate backs to keep them fresh</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">4. Better To Receive</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry were the two biggest tight end prizes in free agency, and the Patriots got them both. Henry was injured in the preseason but expects to start the season playing. He and Smith move the Patriots tight ends group from dead last in the league to at least upper-third.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Given how much the Pats offense traditionally flourished with good tight end play, the addition of these two will help immensely.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">At receiver, the majority of 2020 had Damiere Byrd and N'Keal Harry as the starters, so just about anything would have been an improvement. So again, they signed two big-ish names in free agency: Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Bourne has been hurt this preseason, but Agholor looked good and returning receiver Jacobi Meyers looked excellent during the fake games. The receivers would have looked better with either Newton or Jones starting, but with Jones pulling the defense in with the tight ends, Agholor specifically should have lots of chances for big plays.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">5. Oh! Line</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The offensive line looks deep, physical, and well-coordinated. And you can't ask for much more than from that group.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">They pushed other teams around in the preseason, running for 170 yards a game, 5.7ypc average, and 7 touchdowns. They were physical, did a great job in pass protection, and the choreography on screen passes as mostly impeccable.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial;">6. Putting It Together</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The team should protect Jones by leaning on the running game and the defense (more on that in my next post). In fact, this season might look a lot like 2001; lots of free agents, young QB, solid running game, and a fierce defense. Not that I expect the same result as 2001, but the season could look a lot like that year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The coaches haven't had this much talent at tight end since Aaron Hernandez got arrested, so it'll be interesting to see how OC Josh McDaniels uses the two TEs. The running game has both power (Harris) and speed (Taylor), and James White will help Jones a lot with his third-down acumen and reliability.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I'm not convinced the wide receivers are going to be amazing. But they will make teams pay attention because they can hurt you if you go one-on-one all day long.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Next post: the Defense!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 0-0!</span></p>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1634922814516750640.post-38203927064089449222020-12-07T08:58:00.004-05:002020-12-07T08:58:57.909-05:00Patriots Demolish Chargers 45-0<span style="font-family: arial;">The Patriots destroyed the LA Chargers yesterday 45-0, their biggest road win since 2007. (<b>Trivia question:</b> Can you name the team they beat and/or the score of the game? Answer below.) The win brings them to 6-6, still 2.5 games back of the division leading Bills (who play tomorrow night) and 2 games out of the playoffs. Next up is the other Los Angeles team, the Rams, on a short week this Thursday.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">This game was a clinic of complimentary football. Special teams made four huge plays, scoring twice, the offense used an innovative running game to keep the ball in their hands, and the defense smothered rookie Justin Herbert, intercepting him twice -- his first NFL two-INT game. And all along the coaching was ahead of the Chargers' staff, pouncing on mistakes and letting LA shoot itself in the foot time after time after time.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There isn't as much to pore over in a win this lopsided. But here are five quick observations:</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">1. Redemption For McDaniels</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has taken some heat this year, and rightfully so. But his game plan was outstanding on Sunday. He used a mix of slant-runs, quick-hit runs, QB option plays, and even some Wildcat (with quarterback Cam Newton in motion) to confuse and wear out the Chargers defense. However, most important was that those plays were productive.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The first drive was over 7:00 long and ended with points. And no matter how many players LA committed to stop the run, they couldn't do it effectively enough to force the Pats to abandon their game plan. 43 carries for 165 yards and 2 TDs on the ground speaks for itself.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Nicely done, Josh.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">2. Spectacular Special Teams</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Gunner Olszewski returned a punt 70 yards for a touchdown and another one 61 yards (which led to a field goal). Cody Davis blocked a field goal and Devin McCourty returned it 44 yards for a touchdown. Punter Jake Bailey kicked four times, three of which were downed inside the 20 yard-line. Justin Bethel had three tackles on special teams and saved a punt from the end zone (which was downed at the 5 yard-line by Davis).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Additionally, the kicking units drew penalties against the Chargers, including a 12-man penalty on a quick-snap that got the Pats a first down. This wasn't by accident; LA is known to have bad special teams. No doubt the Patriots spent extra time on them this week, knowing they could spell the difference in the game.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">They did.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">3. Bill Belichick Versus Young QBs</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Most young quarterbacks are confused the first time they play a Belichick-led defense. I haven't updated this stat in a while, but he has something like 90% wins against quarterbacks in their 8th - 15th starts in the NFL, which is right where the Chargers' Justin Herbert was. It also explains how the Patriots held back Kyler Murray and Arizona last week -- he was making his 27th NFL start and facing a BB defense for the first time.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">This won't help much this Thursday; Jared Goff is in his fifth season and has played the Patriots before.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">All of which is to say please don't overreact to the last two weeks. Those wins were predictable; the real season begins now!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">4. Youth Being Served</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Rookies making an impact:</span></u></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Linebacker Josh Uche has a motor that won't stop and hits hard</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Safety Kyle Dugger has 29 tackles on the year and is seeing increased playing time</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Tackle Mike Onwenu is solidly a starter and well-rated by Pro Football Focus</span></li></ul></div><div><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Second-year players making an impact:</span></u></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Running back Damien Harris is the team's leading rusher with 641 yards on 126 carries (5.1ypc) and 2 touchdowns</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Receiver Jakobi Meyers leads the team with 38 catches and is a solid route-runner and blocker downfield</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Defensive End Chase Winovich gets better every week and made two impact plays yesterday</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Receiver/returner Olszewski not only had three great returns in the last two games, he had a long touchdown catch-and-run</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Fullback Jakob Johnson's blocking is excellent and he is now working into the occasional short-passing game</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Linebacker Terez Hall is helping shore up the thin linebacking corps</span></li></ul></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">For a team with so many holes, they are filling many of them with younger players this year. If 2020 is a bridge year, then the future across that bridge looks bright -- if they can get the QB situation settled.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial;">5. Blueprint For The Playoffs?!?!</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">I know, Jim Mora would have torn my head off for saying the P-word. But if the Pats do somehow make the playoffs, they will likely face a gauntlet of road games against teams like Kansas City and/or Pittsburgh.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The advantage they have is that crowd noise won't be as big a factor with smaller crowds (or no crowds) at stadiums because of COVID-19. Also, teams that play sound fundamentals, are good on defense, and can get a few plays on special teams -- those teams often do well on the road, even in the playoffs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Earlier this year the Patriots likely would have beaten Kansas City in KC if their quarterback hadn't contracted the coronavirus. And the Steelers in Pittsburgh has never scared the Patriots; they've won two Super Bowls after beating the Steelers on the road in the playoffs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">They'll likely need more from the passing game if they expect to even make the playoffs. And they have the next six games to figure that out. One note of optimism; supposedly Julian Edelman could be back in a week or two, which could only help the offense.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Where does that leave us?</b> The needle is pointing up at the right time. Newton has shown a good rapport with both Damiere Byrd and Meyers, as well as James White out of the backfield. McDaniels' challenge now is figuring out how to incorporate more passing without risking the run game or a loss (the Patriots can't afford one).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Biggest on-going concern:</b> Lack of explosive plays on offense. The creative game plan from Sunday shows they can win without chunk plays in the passing game. But as they head down the stretch their margin for error is as small as their biggest plays.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">It's great to get huge returns or blocked kicks for touchdowns. That doesn't mean the Patriots want to count on that every week.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Non-QB MVP: </b>the toughest call of the year, but the award goes to special teams ace Justin Bethel, who was integral to the blocked field goal, had big blocks on both of Olszewski's long returns, had three special teams tackles, and made a play to down a punt inside the five yard-line.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Could have been a lot of people (Olszewski himself, for example), but Bethel gets the nod.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Statistical oddity:</b> I've never seen a team be so horrific on fourth down in my life. Here is the astonishing futility of LA on fourth downs:</span></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Missed field goal</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Punt returned for touchdown</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">False start penalty from punt formation</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Blocked field goal returned for touchdown</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Interception</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">61-yard punt return</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Sacked for 9 yards</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Incomplete pass</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Incomplete pass</span></li></ul></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Add in that they had 12 men on the field on a Patriots fourth-down punt, which gave the Pats a first down, and their failures on fourth down become legendary. Just awful!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>Water-cooler wisdom:</b> "Belichick is so awful at talent evaluation that he has nine major contributors from the last two drafts."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Keep the faith,</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">- Scott</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PS. 6-6!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">PPS. <b>Trivia Answer:</b> the Patriots beat the Bills 56-10 in November of 2007, a 46-point win that eclipses the 45-pointer from yesterday.</span></div><div><br /></div>Scotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10127199317146493976noreply@blogger.com0