Yesterday laid it all out nice and clear about the Patriots defense. They don't get enough pressure on the quarterback, blitz or no blitz. They have trouble stopping deep passes if they are without veterans at safety, and their linebackers are poor in pass coverage in the short- and intermediate-zones. Aside from that, their pass defense is one of the top units in the league.
The good news on defense was the return of safety Steve Gregory from injury. However, he played limited snaps and showed a lot of rust (missed tackles, specifically). Fortunately, he has time to work himself back into shape and into the flow of the defense. But he better hurry. The corner position is a mess with Devin McCourty shoring up safety, and rookie Alfonzo Dennard gave up multiple long gains in place of McCourty.
Frankly it looked like a fire drill in the secondary, with Bills receivers running free and Patriots defenders running into each other or taking bad angles and giving up big chunks of yards. If new acquisition Aqib Talib can't help, the Pats better get Patrick Chung back soon, so McCourty can move back to corner. McCourty did make the INT that sealed the game, but the team needs him in two positions right now, and that means they need to get someone healthy so he can play one or the other.
The linebackers weren't all horrible, but they did give up too many crossing patterns in the 10-yard range, and also they did not hold up well against the run often enough. In fact, for the first time in quite a while, I'm going to re-watch part of the game, because watching it live I couldn't figure out how the Bills opened up those gaping holes in the running game.
Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Ninkovich -- they all missed seemingly easy tackles, and all got out of position and gave up big running plays. Oh, and Spikes had roughing-the-passer and encroachment penalties -- all in all not his best game. Mayo and Spikes led the team with 12 and 11 tackles, respectively; and Ninkovich had a sack and two QB hits. So they made some plays; just gave up too many.
The defensive line alternated between stuffing the run for no gain and letting it through like a sieve for big yards. Vince Wilfork had a good game (4 tackles, 1 sack for 10 yards, and a forced fumble). The Pats moved him up and down the line, which gave the Bills some of their openings; but it allowed Wilfork to get better pressure on the QB.
For all the hype about Chandler Jones, he lost outside contain on some of those runs, too, and he didn't do much else, either (just one assisted tackle on the day). He might be hitting the rookie wall. It was an undistinguished performance by the rest of the line; although rookie Justin Francis showed a good burst to the QB and did a decent job in limited duty.
With a defense this problematic, it's clear the offense has to carry the day to win games. Fortunately, it is supremely talented, well run, and by and large well coached. You never know which player will get the mismatch; but you always know quarterback Tom Brady will find it and exploit it. He did yesterday, for a ho-hum line: 23 of 38, 237 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 96.1 QB rating. Good decisions in the face of decent pressure, and a few lucky breaks, and he kept his interception total at 3 for the entire season.
Running back Danny Woodhead had a great day: 4 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown, and a 15-yard run for another touchdown. Stevan Ridley was the workhorse; 22 carries for 98 yards, and very good in pass protection. As pointed out by my friend Dave, he lacks breakaway speed, but has everything else you could ask of a running back. He easily leads the team with 814 yards, and hasn't fumbled in over a month, so maybe those problems are behind him.
Old reliable Wes Welker led the team in targets (11), catches (6), yards (74), and yards per catch (12.3). Despite what you hear in the press, it's tough to imagine the Patriots not working out a long-term deal with Welker, he's just too effective in this offense. He opens things up for Brandon Lloyd (5 catches for 45 yards), Gronkowski (3 for 31 and 1TD), and even Deion Branch (4 for 30).
As for the offensive line, it was not always perfect, but going against the strength of the Bills defense (their line), they gave up just 1 sack, 4 QB hits (probably too many), and not much else. Brady had plenty of time most plays, and the running game went for 4.0 yards a carry and 2 touchdowns. No spectacular plays, but given their responsibilities, quite nice to know they are protecting the team's #1 asset well.
Special teams mention of the week; Stephen Gostkowski gave up nothing on kick returns, and he hasn't missed a field goal since the last Buffalo game in September. Looks like he has those early-season jitters worked out of his system.
The biggest coaching questions were around the Patriots last drives of the game. On one possession, they got the ball with 9:35 to go and a 10-point lead, and proceeded to go three-and-out and take only 19-seconds off the clock. In the shadow of their own goalposts, it probably made more sense to run the ball three times and kick it to the Bills, at least you'd remove 2:00 off the clock.
And after the Bills pulled to within 3 points, the Patriots got good field position and had 7:40 on the clock. On paper, what followed looked like a good drive: 14 plays, 5:41 elapsed time, and a field goal. But they were snapping the ball with 15+ seconds left on the play clock, and when they got near the goal line, they ran for a loss, got a penalty, and then threw twice (incomplete) before taking the three points.
If they run it into the line three times, the Bills would have had no timeouts left, and less than 1:30 on the clock. And if the Pats used more of the play clock earlier in the drive, they would have ended the game with possession of the ball. Not terrible coaching, just odd. And bad situationally; which is where they usually excel.
So where does that leave us? 6-3 and a division crown coming into focus on the horizon. Only the Dolphins are within striking distance, but if the Patriots simply split with Miami, the Pats will be division champs again. As for the rest of it, the possibility of a playoff by starts this week. They have to beat Indy, otherwise they will be looking up at at least three teams, two of which would have the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: The longest play of the game for each team involved penalties. The Bills got a 14-yard run and picked up 15 more on a Jerod Mayo unnecessary roughness penalty. And the Patriots got 11 on a Shane Vereen catch-and-run and added 15 more on a facemask by Bills corner Stephon Gilmore. (Trivia question: the Pats gained more yards one other time in this game -- do you remember the situation?)
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Thank goodness the Bills haven't outgrown their habits of dropping passes, making bad plays, and committing bad penalties. Otherwise, things might have ended differently."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 6-3!
PPS. Trivia answer:
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The Bills pass-interference call in the end zone went for 37 yards, but it is not an official play, so it doesn't count in the "longest plays of the game" scenario :)
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