Monday, December 30, 2013

LeGarrette Blount Tops Bills, 34-20

The Patriots took out the Bills in sloppy Foxboro yesterday, largely on the strength of LeGarrette Blount's 189 yards rushing and 145 yards on two kickoff returns. The win gave them the #2 seed in the AFC, and a first-round playoff bye. No game next week, but the team will certainly be making plans for their possible playoff foes on January 11 (8:15pm).

The game was messy, with five fumbles (four by the Patriots, all of which they recovered), lots of big plays when runners broke through arm tackles, and some ill-timed penalties that went in the Patriots favor. Division games against opponents with nothing to lose are difficult, and the Bills made a game of it for a while. But without their best QB, they didn't stand much of a chance.

How dominant was running back Blount in this game? He had more rushing yards (189) and more return yards (145) than Tom Brady had passing yards (122). Blount also had more touchdowns than Brady (2 to 1), and fewer turnovers (0 to 1). His two kickoff returns were electric and necessary to stop Buffalo momentum. He hit the holes hard in the running game, and when nothing was there he pushed the pile for a huge 7.9 yards per carry. Running back Stevan Ridley seems to have worked his way out of the doghouse, spelling Blount with 12 carries for 74 yards (6.2 ypc), although both he and Blount had fumbles in the game.

The offensive line did a terrific job, with special mention going to guard Logan Mankins and center Dan Connolly. Those yards didn't come just from great running, and these two specifically were making multiple blocks per play and getting downfield to continue the action and keep the play alive for more yards. It obviously helped a lot to have tackle Nate Solder in the lineup as, in addition to the great running, Brady was sacked only once.

Brady was fine, though not asked to do much but hand off. Receiver Julian Edelman was his main target when he did throw, catching 9 passes for 65 yards. Running back Shane Vereen was next in line, with 5 catches for 42 yards, and a touchdown. But just for the record, 14 completions probably won't get them far in the playoffs, and the Patriots not only need to be able to pass more (and better weather would help), but they need to spread the ball around to more players. Their targets are too predictable at the moment.

The interior of the defensive line played very well, getting consistent pressure on the QB and also stuffing most of the inside runs. Chris Jones had a sack and has had the most consistent year inside, while the rotation among other players worked really well. Joe Vellano came in and made a play immediately when Sealver Siliga hobbled off. Siliga ended up leading the team in tackles (9), while notching a sack and forcing a fumble.

The defensive ends left a lot to be desired, and were the main reason the Bills stayed in the game so long. Buffalo running backs and the Buffalo quarterback got outside of containment far too often, usually for big chunks of yardage. Chandler Jones got burned early and did better, but he wasn't consistent enough. They are usually more disciplined, so this should be viewed as an anomaly; but the D-line has to work better as a unit going forward.

The secondary got burned a few times, and frankly they were the beneficiaries of several dropped passes. Duron Harmon replaced the injured Devin McCourty, and it was a problem. Receivers got open on deep sideline patterns, where Harmon got there late. Also, injuries forced Kyle Arrington to cover on the outside, which is a problem as is he much better in the slot. Not a problem if they have a full compliment of secondary players in the playoffs, but something to watch if they do not.

Special teams were great. Not only did they have the Blount returns, but Stephen Gostkowski went 4-for-4 on field goals in that downpour. He also allowed only one kickoff return, for 28 yards -- the rest were into or through the end zone for touchbacks. And punter Ryan Allen was terrific, killing one punt inside the five yard line and sending another one there (but it was knocked into the end zone by the coverage player).

The coaching was terrific. Seeing the conditions, they obviously decided it was safer to run the ball and it worked perfectly. Buffalo gets the most pressure on the quarterback in the entire league, so the plan also played away from their defensive strength. And in a game this messy, the Patriots had only 4 penalties, which is usually attributed to good coaching.

So where does that leave us? 12-4 and a first-round playoff bye is a great place to be. The team has 12 days to get healthy and plan for their next opponent. The other team has yet to be determined, but the game will be on January 11 at 8:15pm, so don't forget to set your DVR!

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Since Bill Belichick arrived in New England, the Patriots are 14-0 when they play Buffalo for the second time in a season, with an average margin of victory of 18 points.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The last two wins look impressive, but they don't tell you anything new about the Patriots. Baltimore's offense is awful, and the Pats always beat the Bills. Bring on the playoffs!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  12-4!

PPS.  I predicted 12-4 before the season started ::patting self on back::

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Patriots Fall Short to Dolphins, 24-20

The Patriots squandered two long drives and came up short in a 24-20 loss at Miami. The result means the Patriots have to win one of their last two games to guarantee a division title and playoff berth. And it doesn't get any easier next week, traveling to Baltimore to take on a playoff-desperate Ravens team.

Not a lot of mystery in this one. The Pats started the game with a 16 play (83 yard) drive, and they had drives of 15 plays (81 yards) and 13 plays (61 yards) -- all for a net of 6 points. In the NFL you have to cash in your opportunities at a better clip than that, and the Dolphins took advantage of all their opportunities, leaving the Patriots just short at the end.

The overall offensive numbers look pretty good: 29 first downs, 9 of 17 (53%) on third-down conversions, more yards rushing than Miami, 364 yards in the air with only 1 sack (7 yards), only 1 penalty for 2 yards, only 1 turnover (on their last play of the game), and 3:00 advantage in time of possession. But Miami went 67% (2 of 3) in the red zone, while the Patriots were only 25% (1-4). And that one penalty was a killer pass interference call that helped the Dolphins score a touchdown.

Tom Brady was very good between the 10 yard lines, but not quite there when it came time to score. Though not all of it was his fault; the team averaged 5.8 yards per rush but stopped running once they got in close. If this is how the offense will play without Rob Gronkowski (who is out for the season, if you hadn't heard), especially in the red zone, it will be a short and unproductive trip to the playoffs -- if they even make it. Michael Hoomanawanui did his best Gronkowski imitation on a one-handed touchdown grab, but couldn't get separation when it mattered on the final drive.

The receivers were a two-headed monster, and that is not good news. Julian Edelman caught 13 passes for 139 yards and a touchdown, and Danny Amendola got 10 for 131 yards. But having just the two main receivers makes the Patriots much easier to defend, just as happened last year in the playoffs. They have to keep running back Shane Vereen involved in the passing game, and when they get their up-the-field receivers back (the injured Kembrell Thompkins and Aaron  Dobson), they need to pair them with Josh Boyce to stretch the field and open things up underneath.

The offensive line did okay for the first half, but once left tackle Nate Solder was injured, all hell broke loose. The team used a quick passing attack to keep the Dolphins pass rushers at bay for a while, but in the second half Brady was sacked once and hit seven times (after zeros on both of those stats in the first half). The team now has backups at too many offensive line positions, especially when they play teams with complex pass-rush schemes and potential blitz packages (like the Ravens this Sunday).

On defense it was more hot-and-cold. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower was a monster most of the game, stuffing runs with 9 tackles and very good pass coverage. Then he blew the one coverage that scored the winning touchdown, when a stop there would have led only to a tying field goal. And the team couldn't stop Miami on a fourth-and-five screen pass. Jamie Collins is improving each week, especially in the combo of pass/run stopping. But Brandon Spikes still appears to be injured, and Dane Fletcher, well, he committed the only Patriots penalty of the day, but you already read about that one.

The defensive line did continue to rotate in new players, to keep the rookies from crashing toward the finish line. Sealver Siliga got his first NFL sack, and Joe Vellano and Chandler Jones added one each. This is directly attributable to rotating players to keep the fresh, and is something the team will likely do even into the playoffs. They have too many young defensive linemen to depend on them for 60+ snaps each (though Jones and Rob Ninkovich are on the field most of the game).

Not sure what to say about the secondary. One drive they shut things down completely, the next drive they gave up chunks of yardage and touchdowns. Alfonzo Dennard didn't start; not sure if that was an injury or just because he's not playing as well as rookie Logan Ryan. But honestly, when you watch this game, you wouldn't know who is playing better -- they both seem to be uneven. Even solid Devin McCourty had a few missed tackles and a missed assignment in this one. Too inconsistent.

As for special teams, usually reliable Stephen Gostkowski missed a 48-yarder. And late in the game, those points would have made it so the Patriots only needed a field goal to win. He also booted a kickoff out of bounds, which was crucial to Miami's last touchdown drive to win the game. He's had an All-Pro year, but yesterday just wasn't his day.

The coaching wasn't terrible, but they went four-wide too late in the game. And they gave up on the running attack, which they should do out of the spread formation more. When their formation gives up that they are running, it's usually a loss waiting to happen. And they have to diversify their offense -- two more games to figure it out before the games start to count.

So where does that leave us? 10-4 is very good, but they had a chance to win the division and take the poll position for the #1 seed. Having failed this week, they have another tough game to try for the division win this Sunday. But the Ravens are not an easy target; although they play on Monday night, so it will be a short week for them.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots are 47-7 in December since the 2001 season. Four of those losses have come in Miami. (Trivia question: how many of the other three December losses can you name?... answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the offense can't become more than Edelman and Amendola, the Patriots won't even be a tough out in the playoffs."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-4!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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The Patriots lost to the Tennessee Titans (24-7) and New York Jets (30-17) in December of 2002. They also lost to the San Francisco 49ers in December of 2012 (41-34).

Monday, December 9, 2013

Patriots Storm Back For Miracle 27-26 Win!

Honestly, I don't believe what I just saw. For the third straight week, the Patriots spotted their opponent a halftime lead, then came back to win the game late. This time, four amazing things went their way, as they topped the 4-9 Cleveland Browns, 27-26. The victory puts the Patriots three games up in the AFC East with three games to go, and gives them a chance to sew up another division crown with a victory (or tie) against the Dolphins in Miami next Sunday.

This one looked like a loss at 26-14. But as a Denver fan reminded me a few weeks back, with Tom Brady as your quarterback, you can never count the team out. In the last two minutes, the Patriots got a late touchdown with a questionable 15-yard penalty against the Browns, recovered their first onside kick in 18 years, got a correctly called pass interference penalty in the end zone (and a 1-yard TD toss), and then survived a 57-yard field goal attempt by the Browns, that came up short. It's tough to win in the NFL, but this game should not have been this close.

The first half wasn't all bad; with the offense sputtering, the defense held the Browns to just six points, limiting the damage to keep the game in reach. And their comeback was not only improved offense, but defensive stops, too. And on the last two drives, Brady was 10 for 11 (not including the clock-stopping spike), for 93 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a QB rating of 141.5. And of course, kicker Stephen Gostkowski hit another 50-yarder in the fourth quarter and then successfully executed an onside kick for the team's first recovery in 18 years (also against the Browns, interestingly enough).

However, the win came at a cost; tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered what appeared to be a serious knee injury in the third quarter, and he did not return. (On the television broadcast, you could hear Gronkowski yell: "He broke my f***ing leg!" -- so it does not look good for a possible return this year.) And the Patriots offense was starting to jell with all their weapons healthy, even if they struggled in the first half of games. For context, the Pats ranked 22nd offensively without Gronkowski, and 2nd with him. The very definition of a difference-maker.

These last-second wins can be viewed one of three ways: (a) the Patriots are a team of destiny that keeps winning in amazing ways and has that magic something, (b) they possess the mental toughness never to quit and will be a tough out in the playoffs, or (c) they are a slow-starting team that won't overcome early deficits against better competition in the playoffs. Sadly, I put them between (b) and (c) -- a mentally tough team that won't go far in the post-season unless they can play better in the first half of games.

Here is how they can turn things in their favor as they march toward a likely playoff run:

1. Brady needs to improve on long throws. He overthrew two long passes in the first half, either of which would have turned the game the Patriots' way early on. He ended up with a nice stat line: 32 of 52 (61%), 481 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and a 91.7 QB rating. But almost all of that came in the second half. And the reason he didn't get many chances in the first half was his own miscues.

2. Stop turning the ball over. They have turned the ball over in nine straight games, six of those in the first half of games, which helped put them in early holes. Thirteen games into the season, only twice have they not turned the ball over. (Trivia question: without looking, can you name either of those two games -- answer below).

3. Move running back Shane Vereen into the role formerly occupied by Aaron Hernandez. If Gronkowski is out for the year, then Vereen is the biggest potential matchup problem they have on offense. Brady targeted him 17 times, and Vereen hauled in 12 of them for 153 yards, mostly against overmatched linebackers. However, for better or worse, this means...

4. Bring back Stevan Ridley (8 rushes for 35 yards) and pair him with LeGarrette Blount (8 for 42) at running back. At this point, the team needs Vereen to diversify the offense, so they have to work Ridley back into the starting role (or at least a platoon with Blount). They need a decent running game, because the combo of Ridley and Vereen on the field creates mismatches and forces the other team to honor the run.

If Ridley fumbles at a crucial moment, so be it. But keeping him in the dog house is not longer a viable option. The team needs his skills if they plan to do anything in the playoffs.

5. Give left tackle Nate Solder help. Most of the pressure and sacks have been his player or the man opposite right tackle Will Svitek. You can forgive it with a lesser-rated player (which Svitek is), but Solder is having trouble with speed rushers who make it to the corner against him too often. Send a back into the flat and chip the pass rusher, or run some inside draw plays in Solder's direction -- something to stop defensive ends from teeing off to the outside of Solder.

6. Keep rotating the interior defensive linemen to help with the run defense. Yesterday they started Sealver Siliga (#71 on your scorecard) and rotated him in sporadically with Joe Vellano, Isaac Sopoaga and Chris Jones. Jones and Vellano are first year players, who appear to have hit the rookie wall.

The team should consider giving each of them an entire game off if they can before the end of the year. It can only help their run defense, which had been soundly thrashed three weeks in a row -- until yesterday, when they gave up only 108 yards and 4.3 yards per carry. This experiment should continue and be expanded, as January nears.

7. Stop moving Chandler Jones inside, and always have him and Rob Ninkovich (7 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tackles for loss, and 2 QB hits) either at the end of the D-line or dropping into pass coverage. Neither player has the size to hold up inside, and both excel at getting pressure from the outside, and so both should be kept where they work best. If the team needs to do something fancy on defense, have them drop into a short zone, where both have done okay work in pass coverage.

8. Find out what linebacker Dont'a Hightower ate yesterday, and feed it to all the linebackers. Hightower has taken some heat from me (and a lot more from the press), but yesterday he was much, much better. He notched eleven tackles and a QB hit, he was quicker to the ball carrier (meaning shorter running plays), and his pass coverage was very close in most cases.

9. Continue to give Jamie Collins reps and responsibility. Brandon Spikes must be injured, as his statistics and effectiveness have dropped off markedly. Collins is a decent running mate for Spikes, because Collins is better in pass coverage and has the speed to run sideline-to-sideline. Spikes is more of a film-study guesser (and he's quite good at that), blitzing into running holes or up the middle to the passer.

10. Get healthy in the secondary. Rookie Logan Ryan is playing well, but still gets overmatched when he takes on the better receivers. Aqib Talib is nursing a hip injury, though he gutted it out yesterday, mostly taking away the Browns best receiver. So if the team can get Alfonzo Dennard back full-time, they could have a dime package of Talib, Dennard, Arrington, Ryan, and safeties Steve Gregory and Devin McCourty.

However, if any of those guys are missing (or less than 90% healthy), the drop-off is significant. And in the playoffs, the really good quarterbacks will make you pay -- a lot more than journeyman Jason Campbell, who put up 391 yards and 116.8 QB rating against the injured secondary.

11. Find out what kicker Stephen Gostkowski is eating this season and feed it to the rest of the team. Honestly, if he isn't the Pro Bowl kicker, then who is?

12. The coaching staff needs to self-scout and figure out why they can't score in the first half. Some of it is turnovers, some is poor throws by Brady, some is bad initial game planning, some is getting out-coached by the opposing defensive staff, and some is just bad luck. But the Patriots purportedly self-scout better than any team out there. So prove it, and get going earlier in the game.

So where does that leave us? 10-3 and a three-game lead in the division with three weeks to go. Smells like another division crown, coming to a stadium near you, perhaps even next week. The Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives, so the trip to Miami won't be easy. And if the Patriots start slow again, expect the Dolphins to put the pedal to the metal, instead of waiting around like the Browns did yesterday.

Statistical oddity of the week: With three games to go, Brady has been sacked for 228 yards this year, already more than his previous worst (219).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Browns fans will whine, but the Patriots lost to the Jets and Panthers on controversial calls that went against them. Cleveland lost because they played not-to-lose in the middle of the game. Period."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-3!

PPS. Trivia answer: neither the Falcons or Jets (first game) took the ball away from the Patriots.

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Patriots Come Back, Then Survive, Winning 34-31 Again

For the second straight week, the Patriots spotted their opponent a double-digit lead and came back strong to win a 34-31 decision. Today it was the downtrodden Texans, and the win puts the Patriots at 9-3, three full games ahead of 6-6 Miami for the division lead with just four games to play. There are too many variables to clinch a division crown next week against the Cleveland Browns (in Foxboro), so their first chance will be the following game against the Dolphins.

After two prime-time games against the iron of their schedule, it was inevitable that the Patriots would have a letdown against the 2-9 Texans. That's one of the reasons I predicted before the season that the Pats would drop this game; and against a full-power Texans team they most certainly would have. But they hung in against these shell-of-their-former-selves Texans and once again their halftime adjustments were just about perfect -- leading to five consecutive scoring drives and a clock-killing possession.

The offensive line was under fire, with the Texans defense mixing in a nice array of blitzes and decent pressure with just their front four. But even in the face of that, the O-line gave up just one sack (six yards), and five QB hits. They also did a great job blocking on screen passes and on the two rushing touchdowns. Nate Solder gave up the one sack, but he was left alone to block two defenders, so it was probably running back Shane Vereen's fault for not picking up the extra man.

As for the running backs, here was the most important statistic: 0 fumbles. Stevan Ridley was a healthy scratch, replaced by LeGarrette Blount (12 carries, 44 yards, 1 touchdown), who looked like a college back with both hands on the ball at all times. Even blocking back James Develin kept both arms on it while taking four punishing hits at the goal line and eventually scoring. Vereen didn't carry the ball quite so carefully, but he ran well (10 for 38), and was instrumental in the passing game (5 catches, 37 yards, 1 touchdown). The team only averaged 3.3 yards a carry, but the lack of fumbles was more important than anything.

Quarterback Tom Brady had a mediocre first half: an interception, two poorly thrown short passes, and one miss on a long one that would have made it a 3-point game at the half. But after halftime he was terrific  -- 18 of 23 (78%), 263 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions, and a 128.8 QB rating. His touch passes and his long passes were much more accurate. And the windows into which he was throwing were tiny all game and got smaller as the game went on, making his second-half performance all the more impressive.

And the receivers were excellent, rounding into form now that they have an almost fully healthy crew. Julian Edelman (9 catches for 101 yards) continues to be the best former college QB playing receiver in recent memory. Seven of those nine catches went for first downs, and the combination of him and Danny Amendola (5 for 54) are a close approximation of Wes Welker. As mentioned, Vereen is vital to the passing game these days.

Two other factors of importance with the receivers:

First, the unstoppable force that is Rob Gronkowski is back. He had 6 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown, and that was against constant double- (and sometimes triple-) teaming. He also throws off blockers like they are annoying gnats, and if he stays healthy, he will be a nightmare matchup for every team in the playoffs.

Secondly, the Patriots now have two straight weeks with at least four receivers heavily involved in the offense (last week it was five, with Kenbrell Thompkins in the mix, too). This is much more diversity than the had the last few years as they worked toward the playoffs, and makes them vastly more difficult to defend. So keep an eye on how many receivers they have over 3 catches each week; that will tell you if Brady is able to spread the ball around, which will make them much more dangerous on offense.

The front seven on defense had a very bad game. On the defensive line, Chandler Jones (4 tackles) and Rob Ninkovich (4 tackles, 2 QB hits) had good days. They didn't have the stats, but held up well against outside runs and got decent push. In fact, they played so well that they moved inside a few times to replace Joe Vellano and Chris Jones, who both appear to be hitting the "rookie wall" at the same time. It's not all their fault, as the team didn't keep enough D-line depth to replace injured starters Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelley.

The linebackers were also complicit in the number of gashing inside runs. Brandon Spikes blitzed inside when the runs went outside, and chose the wrong gap on far too many plays. He ended up with five tackles, but when plays went away from him he looked disinterested, something I never thought I'd see from such an intense player. Perhaps he is injured. And Dont'a Hightower and Spikes ran into the same hole on plays, leaving the running backs to run free, and both of them are liabilities in pass coverage.

Rookie Jamie Collins has seen more playing time recently; he even started this week. And he is already their best pass-coverage linebacker. And Dane Fletcher has gone from special-teams contributor to a one of the better linebackers against pass and run, which is saying a lot given the draft position and talent level of his linebacking mates. It also says a lot about the state of the linebackers; depth and pass-coverage are big problems.

The secondary did a very good job, especially given that #1 corner Aqib Talib is playing injured and #2 corner Alfonzo Dennard was out with his injury. I haven't given rookie Logan Ryan enough praise -- he had another interception today (3rd of the season), 2 passes defended, and 3 tackles. He hasn't been beaten deep that I can remember, and without his play, the injuries would have cost the Patriots the last two games. But instead of the Patriots fighting for a playoff berth at 7-5, they are cruising toward a division crown at 9-3.

Additionally, safety play has been very good of late. Both Steve Gregory and Devin McCourty played deep against Peyton Manning and the Broncos, holding them to 4.1 yards per attempt. This week, Gregory moved up on running plays, and helped stuff them at important junctures of the second half. And McCourty conversely played deep, helping keep things in front of him so the Patriots couldn't lose the game on big plays. Complimentary play, with them doing what they need to do to win each week, and it worked perfectly the last two games.

As for special teams, they had another excellent week. Stephen Gostkowski hit two field goals of 50+ yards in the second half, including the game winner at the end. He missed a 55-yarder into a light wind in the first half, but when the money was on the line he hit the important kicks and booted kickoffs too long to be returned (which was big after the team gave up a 50-yard return in the first half). Punter Ryan Allen had a good average, and allowed only one return for six yards.

The coaching staff once again was outdone in the first half, but made the necessary adjustments to win in the second half. Among those adjustments, more quick passes, some screen passes, and more blitzes on defense. Although Josh McDaniels had his weekly "long pass on a third-and-short" -- but it didn't end up costing the team.

So where does that leave us? 9-3 and sitting in the second playoff spot in the AFC, at the moment. The Patriots incredible run continues, with them now guaranteed a winning record for the 13th straight season. (Trivia question #1: name the team that holds the record of 20 straight winning seasons... answer below.) Time to put this letdown game behind them and focus on the last four games. Another playoff bye is at hand, if they take care of business.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots won the last two games 34-31, the third time under Bill Belichick they won two consecutive games by the exact same score.  (Trivia Question #2, name either of the other times they did so... answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Thank goodness they've got four games to figure out how not to fall behind early."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  9-3!

PPS. Trivia answer #1:
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The Dallas Cowboys had winning seasons every year from 1966 - 1985.

PPPS. Trivia answer #2: In 2007, the Patriots beat the New York Jets and San Diego Chargers 38-14 in weeks 1 & 2, and in 2010, the Patriots beat the Baltimore Ravens and San Diego Chargers 23-20 in weeks 6 & 7.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Patriots Epic Comeback Ends With O.T. Win, 34-31

Man, oh man, was *that* cold! For the first time in franchise history, the Patriots overcame a 24-point halftime deficit to win, in a pulse-pounding 34-31 overtime victory over the Broncos. The win puts them at 8-3, with a full three-game lead over division rivals Miami and New York, with just five games left in the season.  So another AFC East title is in sight, and with a win over the Broncos, a first-round playoff bye is possible. Next week they travel to Houston to take on the disintegrating Texans.

Last night's game looked to be over before it ever got started, reminding me of the Patriots three-turnover first quarter against the Ravens in the 2009 playoffs. Everything went against the Pats, with fumbles by Stevan Ridley, Tom Brady, and LeGarrette Blount -- all leading to points and eventually that 24-0 halftime score.

It also reminded me of the Miami game in October this year. Just as in that game, the Patriots didn't make a lot of adjustments at the half, they just came out and executed their offense much better. And in both cases, they overcame big deficits, were patient while the turnovers went back their way, and rode some big plays on special teams to a win.

The Patriots defensive game plan was to allow the Broncos all the yards they wanted on the ground. They played mostly nickel and dime, rarely committed extra defenders to stop the run, and counted on the Broncos either making mistakes or trying to pass against a pass-heavy defense. Mostly it worked; they gave up 280 rushing yards and 5.8 yards per carry, but held Peyton Manning to 150 yards passing and a 70.4 QB rating.

The defensive line got gashed over and over on inside hand-offs. The outside linemen stacked up 22 total tackles, although 19 of them were assists. In fact, Rob Ninkovich had 0 tackles and 13 assists, while Chandler Jones had 3 and 6, respectively. Ninkovich lost outside contain often, but Jones did not and he also got some pressure on Manning (1 sack, two QB hits). The inside rookies (Chris Jones and Joe Vellano) got pushed around, and the Broncos O-line got to the second level a lot. But again; this was part of the overall plan.

Jamie Collins (another rookie) led the linebackers with 10 tackles and he did a nice job in short pass coverage (sticking to receivers well, and knocking down a key pass to Wes Welker). The Patriots drafted him to cover passes from the 'backer position, and now that Jerod Mayo is out for the year they need Collins if they expect to make noise in the playoffs. The rest of the linebackers got beaten up by the Denver O-line, no two ways about it -- the defensive game plan left them hanging out to dry play after play, while the Broncos piled up yards on the ground.

The secondary played stunningly well. Starting safety Steve Gregory was out, and starting cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard played only part time, so they had to depend on rookies Duron Harmon and Logan Ryan. And even with the talent drain, and with all those players moving in and out of the game and shifting multiple times before the snap -- they did a great job keeping things in front of them, jamming receivers at the line, passing off receivers from zone to zone, and even forcing receivers into each other when they tried pick plays.

Harmon led the secondary in tackles (11), and that allowed Devin McCourty to stay back and take away the deep ball. Ryan and Talib has passes defended, Ryan got his second interception of the season, and Talib almost had his fifth & sixth (neither came to fruition). Kyle Arrington stayed on the slot receivers, and helped hold Wes Welker to 4 catches for 31 yards.

It wasn't perfect; certainly too many yards given up on the ground, and the entire team fell asleep on a 30-yard screen pass. But mostly the plan worked; a brilliant use of weather, suspected arm-strength problems for Manning, and forcing the Broncos to beat you how they didn't want to -- on the ground. Looked ugly early on, but in the end they made enough key stops when it counted.

On offense, two running backs were bad and two were terrific. Ridley's latest fumble might have relegated him to mop-up duty for a few weeks, and it would not surprise me if he was a healthy scratch on Sunday. And his replacement, Blount, was also benched after his second fumble of the season. However, Brandon Boldin made the most of his opportunity, with 13 carries for 58 yards and 1 touchdown. And hybrid back Shane Vereen carried 10 times for 31 yards and caught 8 passes for 60 yards. If he hadn't dropped two passes, he might have been the leading receiver in the entire game.

Julian Edelman led all receivers with 9 catches for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns -- both of which were beautiful grabs. Rob Gronkowski was his old, rumblin' bumblin' self, blowing through three tacklers on his touchdown and adding a 33-yarder and a total of 90 yards through the air. He wasn't his usual brutal self on run blocking, but he was a beast catching. And the update wouldn't be complete without a mention of the return of Kenbrell Thompkins, who didn't have a great game, but his 6 catches (56 yards) all seemed to be key ones.

The offensive line had some problems, for sure; Nate Solder gave up the strip-sack of Tom Brady, and there were some free blitzers due to miscommunication on the right side. But Logan Mankins was much improved, and they did a great job in the second half keeping Brady upright (three sacks in the first half, none in the second half). And they've started to trick teams with pulling guards on *pass* plays -- and there is an amazing amount of coordination needed to pull that off without giving up a single sack on that kind of play.

As for Brady, he was simply amazing in the second half, given the situation and the weather conditions he faced. After halftime, he went 24 of 33 (73%), 263 yards, 3 touchdowns (all into the wind), 0 sacks, and a QB rating of 126.2. Trust me, the wind was howling and it was incredibly cold, and in those conditions, Brady's performance was legend-making. The only sacks were in the first half, and the way he sliced up the Denver defense was masterful. As stated before, the team made some adjustments, but mostly it was just better execution that did it.

Special teams contributed with a big punt return by Edelman, 4-for-4 field goals by Stephen Gostkowski (along with excellent kickoffs), and solid coverage. Nate Ebner got the last turnover -- on a mishandled punt in overtime, and he is threatening to beat out long-time coverage ace Matthew Slater for top honors this year.

The coaching was outstanding. It took a lot of guts to let the Broncos gain almost 6 yards a rush and not change up on defense, but Belichick and company were obviously confident that if Manning didn't beat them they would not lose. It also ran against convention to take the wind in overtime, but the Hooded One went for that, too. He also did a great job holding the team together when it would have been easy to pack it in after a 24-0 half in the freezing cold.

Also, the design on some of those pass plays -- with the fake run-looks along the O-line -- those were drawn up by Josh McDaniels. And they were very effective at bring in the defense so they could be attacked in the deep middle. My only concern is that McDaniels still goes for long passes on third-and-short. In overtime, the team faced third-and-four, and play was a 40-yard bomb that fell incomplete on a very windy night -- and led to a punt. The Broncos faced third-and-four on their next drive, and they threw a six-yard dump-off (with six more after the catch) to move the chains and keep the ball. McDaniels needs to learn that lesson.

So where does that leave us? 8-3 is right where I thought they'd be, and next week's opponent is a lot worse than anyone thought they'd be this year. So the Patriots should be 9-3 after next Sunday, and could be on the verge of clinching the division crown at that point. Enjoy the holiday, and have fun watching on Sunday!

Statistical Oddity of the Week: On Sunday, Manning had fewer yards passing (150) than his teammate Knowshon Moreno had rushing (224). It's been eight years since that happened to Manning. (Trivia question: can you name the running back who did it last time-- answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Anyone still arguing that Manning is a better quarterback has an axe to grind. There just isn't any question now -- Brady is head-and-shoulders above Manning."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  8-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
V
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On September 18, 2005, Edgerrin James had 128 yards rushing to Manning's 122 yards passing.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Patriots Lose Heart-breaker to Panthers, 24-20

The Patriots hung tough, but it wasn't enough, as the Panthers came out on top 24-20.  The loss puts the Patriots at 7-3, but with the Jets loss yesterday, they are still two games up in the division. Up next are the offensive juggnernaut Broncos, coming to Foxboro for yet another showdown between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

Let's start at the end, with the controversial final play of the game. Patriots at the Carolina 18 yard-line, needing a touchdown to win, and Brady threw into the end zone toward Rob Gronkowski, who was clearly interfered with. The flag came flying, and it looked like the Patriots will get another shot from the 1 yard-line. But wait; the referees conferred and decided to pick up the flag, essentially ending the game with a Carolina win.

Then a disembodied voice came on the television, it was former official Gerry Austin saying that the contact was in the back of the end zone and the pass was intercepted near the front, so it wasn't interference. However, the replays clearly showed that Gronkowski was illegally contacted five-yards into the end zone, and the interception happened -- you guessed it -- five yards into the end zone. The referees should have stuck with their original call and given the Patriots one more play for the win.

But that isn't why they lost.

On the previous drive, the Patriots led 20-17, but they were down to backup-backup-backup cornerbacks. Kyle Arrington was covering the fastest receiver on the field, Ted Ginn, Jr. on the outside. This was a mismatch given that Arrington is better against smaller, inside receivers, but Ginn had mostly been shut out and it appeared that rookie safety Duron Harmon was shading some help to Arrington's side.

However, at the snap, Harmon (along with a linebacker) covered the tight end over the middle, which left Arrington all alone. If you watched, you know that Ginn took a quick hitch, juked past Arrington, and scored a touchdown for the lead, instead of the Panthers having to kick a game-tying field goal. It was his only catch of the day.

But that isn't why they lost, either.

On the drive prior to that, the Pats had a third-and-one at the Carolina eight yard-line. The Patriots had averaged 4.3 yards a rush, but they went play-action to fool the Panthers. Unfortunately they were ready for it, and they covered the short-left route, leaving Brady to throw it out of the end zone. The Patriots kicked a field goal, and left 6:36 on the clock, leading to the Panthers winning drive.

If the Patriots picked up that first down, they would run another two minutes off the clock, and maybe get a seven-point lead instead of a three-point lead. They would also put pressure on Carolina to score a touchdown to tie (or win with a two-point conversion), and with two fewer minutes on the clock. But the play-call was wrong for the defense in place; and they should have called a time out or audibled into a more favorable play.

But even that isn't why the lost. Here is why they lost:

  1. Two stupid personal-foul penalties (Aqib Talib and Logan Mankins)
  2. A Stevan Ridley fumble in the red zone (where have I read that before?)
  3. No containment on the Panthers QB (who torched them for important first downs)
  4. Yet another lack-luster first half after a bye week (averaging 4.6 points per first quarter after a bye under Bill Belichick*)
  5. No forced turnovers

That is why they lost the game.

(Note: even with yesterday's minus-2 turnover ratio, the Patriots are second in the AFC with +7 on the year. Can you name the #1 team in the AFC in this category? Answer below.)

As for the ups and downs of the game, there are plenty. The Patriots ran the ball well, but running back LeGarrette Blount proved more productive (10 carries for 49 yards) and trustworthy (0 fumbles) than starter Ridley (10 carries for 48 yards, and 1 critical fumble). Ridley ran hard, especially after he got back into the game; but if he doesn't learn to protect the ball he'll be on a train out of town before he realizes it.

Quarterback Brady was sharper than sharp: 29 of 40 (73%), 296 yards, 2 sacks for 13 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 desperation interception, and a 91.2 QB rating. He was also well in command; changing plays to take advantage of defensive alignments, and shredding the defense on two consecutive drives to start the second half (9 for 9, 105 yards, 1 touchdown).

You'd think with decent running stats and a great performance by the quarterback, the offensive line would get some praise. Well, they'll get some, but they have to play smarter. Mankins' penalty was idiotic and cost the Patriots a chance at points. Marcus Cannon tripped a guy after he got beaten, Ryan Wendell missed assignments that allowed direct pressure on Brady, and Nate Solder gave an outside rusher a free shot at Brady because he was trying to block an inside blitz that never materialized. So a decent day, but still too many mental mistakes for this group.

As for the receivers, they mostly did a very good job. Even though he's a running back, Shane Vereen did a lot more damage in the passing game (8 catches for 65 yards) than the running game (1 rush for 7 yards). And in fact, he, Danny Amendola (6 for 75), and Gronkowski (5 for 59, 1 touchdown) had some crucial third-down conversions to keep the chains moving. The Pats converted 50% of their third-downs, which is good at home against a Panthers defense only giving up 35%. Also, it was nice to see Kenbrell Thompkins back on the field -- just 2 catches, but for 60 big yards.

The defensive line was the trick-or-treat unit of the day. They came up with 3 sacks, but also let Newton loose for 62 yards and three absolute *killer* first down conversions. Rob Ninkovich led the team with 9 tackles, and had 2 of those sacks, too (he also did a great job holding the edge and pushing the pocket).

The team moved Chandler Jones all over the field, some on the left, some on the right, and some plays at linebacker in pass coverage. He ended up with 5 tackles, 1 sack, and a QB hit. However, tight end Richie Brockel ate Jones' *lunch* on the pass rush, and Jones let Newton get outside of containment on his biggest third-down conversion of the day. It is interesting to watch how the team uses Jones; he's the first player since Tedy Bruschi or Willie McGinest to rush the passer, play inside against the run, blitz from the second level, and drop into pass coverage as a linebacker.

And speaking of linebackers, the loss of Jerod Mayo is really starting to show. Brandon Spikes (7 tackles) still guesses correctly often enough, but he came up short on a few plays that allowed the Panthers to keep the ball. And Dont'a Hightower (4 tackles) was too tentative or a step slow with Newton and the backs. All you need to know about the teams' linebackers is that not one other made the defensive stat sheet (Ninkovich plays defensive end mostly) -- it was all Spikes and Hightower -- and that isn't good enough.

The secondary fought valiantly, but in the end, the injuries were too much to overcome. Aqib Talib, for all his swagger, should have intercepted a first-quarter pass, though he had tight coverage most of the time (and 5 tackles and 2 passes defended). Unfortunately, he went down in the second half, so it was Kyle Arrington -- although he did a nice job in run support and was decent aside from the blown play on Ginn (he had 2 tackles, 1 for a loss, and 1 pass defended). The safeties played well, until they had to make up for having subpar corners, and that is when all hell broke loose.

On special teams, Tavon Wilson had a great day, with two big tackles on return-man Ginn. He and Nate Ebner are competing to dethrone Matthew Slater as best coverage man this year. Also, punter Ryan Allen did a nice job on one bad snap, and regrouped quickly on his own miscue to get it down for Stephen Gostkowski's last field goal (to take the lead). There wasn't much punting, so not much else to judge him on. And Gostkowski's kickoffs had great hang time, which helped keep Ginn's return ability in check.

The coaching staff needs to figure out why their offense stinks in the first quarter after every bye week. Their self-scouting has failed them here. And I wrote it last entry; Josh McDaniels needs to be better aware of game-situations -- they went for a pass on third-and-one, but he needed to have a decent run to audible to at that point in the game. Also, the defensive coaches probably stressed all week to keep Newton in the pocket, but the guys on the field did not execute that at all.

One last note, about the injuries. I wrote it to start the season and again in my last update: there is no depth on the defensive line or secondary. If Talib and Dennard stay on the shelf, the Patriots will be fortunate to win the division, but any first-round bye will be out of the question. And on the D-line, maybe they'll figure out how to integrate Andre Carter, but for the time being, it's two rookies and a lot of finger-crossing.

So where does that leave us? 7-3 dropped the Patriots into a three-way battle for the second playoff bye, with Cincinnati and Indianapolis. Both of those teams hold tie-breakers over the Patriots; so unless they stumble, the Pats are probably looking at a division crown and a first-round playoff game. But before that, they have a date with Peyton Manning again, next Sunday -- and if the Pats secondary isn't healthy, it could be a loooong night.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots failed to record a turnover for the first time in 36 games, which ended the longest current streak in the NFL.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It would be nice to have a defensive line that can rush the passer without turning him into Barry Sanders when he takes off?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-3!

PPS. Trivia answer: The Kansas City Chiefs have a +15 turnover ratio this season.

*Pats first-quarter scoring after a bye: 0, 10, 0, 0, 3, 7, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 14, 7, 0, 7, 7, 7, 3, 0, 14, 0, 14, 7, 0 (that is a lot of zeros, folks)

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Patriots Mid-Season Report 2013


A very interesting first half put the Patriots exactly where I thought they’d be: 7-2 and in control of the division.  They won some they shouldn’t have won, lost one they shouldn’t have lost, and overall have a two-game lead with seven games to go.  Just about where they are every year at this time.

It’s a little past halfway, but here is the state of the Patriots after their ninth game.

Offense

If quarterback Tom Brady continues at this pace, he’ll end the season with career worsts in completion percentage (currently at 57.1%, career low 60.2%), touchdown percentage (3.8% vs. 4.4%), QB Rating (82.7 vs. 85.7), and sacks (46 vs. 41). It’s partially due to the lack of weapons, but his throws haven’t been as accurate as in recent years.

To be fair, a lot of the early incompletions were missed routes or dropped passes by new receivers. And his connection with the receivers is better, especially now that tight end Rob Gronkowski is rounding into form and Danny Amendola is healthy again.

Additionally, the high number of sacks is more on the offensive line than on Brady. Left guard Logan Mankins and left tackle Nate Solder have been confused on protection far too often this year. And physical defensive lines on Cincinnati, New Orleans, and the New York Jets accounted for over half the year’s sacks in three consecutive games.

The running game hasn’t been a problem, with an improvement from 4.2 yards per carry last year to 4.4 this year, and more explosive plays. So the O-line hasn’t been all bad, and it should improve further given that Gronkowski is one of the best blocking tight ends in football. But even with help from the tight ends, it will be on the starting five to step up their play, especially against larger, more physical defensive lines.

As for the receivers, two games ago rookie receiver Aaron Dobson and Brady finally connected on a back-shoulder pass -- the toughest pass to defend. And they followed that up with a back-shoulder TD last week. Dobson has all the physical skills, and with he and Brady getting into greater sync, he should be dangerous in the second half.

And if last week is any indication, Gronkowski, Dobson, and Danny Amendola will flood or split the field, spreading out defenses. It worked against Pittsburgh when the defense lost track of Amendola several times, for the easiest pass receptions, and one of the easiest touchdowns, of his career. And Gronkowski notched his first touchdown of 2013, and caught several easy pitch-and-catches down the seam.

Defense

The defensive line lost both of its interior players for the year, defensive captain Vince Wilfork and newcomer Tommy Kelly. They’ve been replaced by rookies, Joe Vellano (who is better against the run) and Chris Jones (who is second on the team with five sacks). But the team is getting beaten with inside runs, and when they overcommit to those, they’ve been beaten to the outside.

Chandler Jones does a nice job rushing the passer (8.5 sacks), but he’s no Rob Ninkovich when it comes to holding the edge against the run. And interestingly, the Patriots brought back one-time D-lineman Andre Carter -- and moved Jones to linebacker to help with pass coverage.  And that was necessary because…

Linebacker Jerod Mayo is also out of for the year, on injured reserve with a torn pectoral. Mayo’s taken his lumps from me over the years, mostly for his poor pass coverage. But he was much improved in that area, until the injury. So they need more speed and length in the linebacking corps, because Dont’a Hightower is almost D-lineman size and Brandon Spikes is vastly better against the run.

In the secondary, Aqib Talib is still the key. He’s been injured and missed a few games; and when he is out, the Patriots tend to move slot corner Kyle Arrington outside and backups Marquice Cole or Logan Ryan to the slot. They’d be better off keeping Arrington on the slot receivers and giving help to the side with Cole or Ryan. Arrington was repeatedly beaten in the second Jets game, and they eventually had to move him back inside -- and the Jets receivers aren’t even that good.

Safety Devin McCourty is having a spectacular season, and his counterpart, Steve Gregory is much better than last year. However, this is yet another area where the drop-off from starter to backup is significant, so the team has to hope both players can stay healthy.


Special Teams/Coaching

Stephen Gostkowski was already the most accurate kicker in Patriots history, and that was before he went 22 of 23 this year. His kickoffs have also been very good -- with plenty of touchbacks and hang time -- except for the Pittsburgh game, when they were a bit shorter than usual. Perhaps he was nursing an injury in that game, but if so, he’s had two weeks to rest and should be back to his normal, brilliant self.

Rookie punter Ryan Allen had a few early “yips” punts, but overall has done a very good job. He also does well holding on field goals (as evidenced by Gostkowski’s amazing percentage). And his coverage teams are very good; Nate Ebner is threatening to take away Matthew Slater’s title as all-around special teams ball hawk.

On kickoff returns, LeGarrette Blount shows surprisingly quick feet for such a big man. Not exactly a barn-burner, but better than Devin McCourty was last year. And Julian Edelman continues to take chances and make them payoff on punt returns; almost never fair-catching, and sometimes slipping through cracks so small you’d think a pee wee footballer wouldn’t fit through.

The defensive coaching has been mostly excellent. The only questionable decision was the aforementioned move of Arrington to the outside against the Jets. Aside from that, coordinator Matt Patricia has pulled the right strings all year.

On offense, Josh McDaniels needs to calm himself down sometimes. There is no need to go for a 40-yard bomb on third-and-two -- but somehow McDaniels still hasn’t learned that lesson. Oh, and Scott O’Brien continues to excel, year after year, coaching special teams.

Summary

With another division title in their sights, don’t expect the Patriots to lose focus. The Panthers are a sterner test than I gave them credit for in my Season Preview, but given Belichick’s record against young quarterbacks, and his dominance against the NFC, tomorrow’s tilt in Carolina should be a Patriots win.

The Patriots have suffered many injuries in past years, but never this many to key players. If they don’t stay healthy, they won’t pull out an undermanned Super Bowl victory, as they did in 2003. But they can compete for a championship with the injuries they’ve suffered so far; they just can’t afford any more.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: You should not concern yourself with Brady’s low completion percentage.  The lowest two seasons of his career are 2003 and 2004 (60.1% and 60.8%, respectively) -- and the Patriots won the Super Bowl both of those years.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Since 2001 Belichick is 16-5 after the bye, 15-5 on Monday night, and 42-9 against the NFC… so things could go well against the Panthers.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-2!