After two prime-time games against the iron of their schedule, it was inevitable that the Patriots would have a letdown against the 2-9 Texans. That's one of the reasons I predicted before the season that the Pats would drop this game; and against a full-power Texans team they most certainly would have. But they hung in against these shell-of-their-former-selves Texans and once again their halftime adjustments were just about perfect -- leading to five consecutive scoring drives and a clock-killing possession.
The offensive line was under fire, with the Texans defense mixing in a nice array of blitzes and decent pressure with just their front four. But even in the face of that, the O-line gave up just one sack (six yards), and five QB hits. They also did a great job blocking on screen passes and on the two rushing touchdowns. Nate Solder gave up the one sack, but he was left alone to block two defenders, so it was probably running back Shane Vereen's fault for not picking up the extra man.
As for the running backs, here was the most important statistic: 0 fumbles. Stevan Ridley was a healthy scratch, replaced by LeGarrette Blount (12 carries, 44 yards, 1 touchdown), who looked like a college back with both hands on the ball at all times. Even blocking back James Develin kept both arms on it while taking four punishing hits at the goal line and eventually scoring. Vereen didn't carry the ball quite so carefully, but he ran well (10 for 38), and was instrumental in the passing game (5 catches, 37 yards, 1 touchdown). The team only averaged 3.3 yards a carry, but the lack of fumbles was more important than anything.
Quarterback Tom Brady had a mediocre first half: an interception, two poorly thrown short passes, and one miss on a long one that would have made it a 3-point game at the half. But after halftime he was terrific -- 18 of 23 (78%), 263 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions, and a 128.8 QB rating. His touch passes and his long passes were much more accurate. And the windows into which he was throwing were tiny all game and got smaller as the game went on, making his second-half performance all the more impressive.
And the receivers were excellent, rounding into form now that they have an almost fully healthy crew. Julian Edelman (9 catches for 101 yards) continues to be the best former college QB playing receiver in recent memory. Seven of those nine catches went for first downs, and the combination of him and Danny Amendola (5 for 54) are a close approximation of Wes Welker. As mentioned, Vereen is vital to the passing game these days.
Two other factors of importance with the receivers:
First, the unstoppable force that is Rob Gronkowski is back. He had 6 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown, and that was against constant double- (and sometimes triple-) teaming. He also throws off blockers like they are annoying gnats, and if he stays healthy, he will be a nightmare matchup for every team in the playoffs.
Secondly, the Patriots now have two straight weeks with at least four receivers heavily involved in the offense (last week it was five, with Kenbrell Thompkins in the mix, too). This is much more diversity than the had the last few years as they worked toward the playoffs, and makes them vastly more difficult to defend. So keep an eye on how many receivers they have over 3 catches each week; that will tell you if Brady is able to spread the ball around, which will make them much more dangerous on offense.
The front seven on defense had a very bad game. On the defensive line, Chandler Jones (4 tackles) and Rob Ninkovich (4 tackles, 2 QB hits) had good days. They didn't have the stats, but held up well against outside runs and got decent push. In fact, they played so well that they moved inside a few times to replace Joe Vellano and Chris Jones, who both appear to be hitting the "rookie wall" at the same time. It's not all their fault, as the team didn't keep enough D-line depth to replace injured starters Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelley.
The linebackers were also complicit in the number of gashing inside runs. Brandon Spikes blitzed inside when the runs went outside, and chose the wrong gap on far too many plays. He ended up with five tackles, but when plays went away from him he looked disinterested, something I never thought I'd see from such an intense player. Perhaps he is injured. And Dont'a Hightower and Spikes ran into the same hole on plays, leaving the running backs to run free, and both of them are liabilities in pass coverage.
Rookie Jamie Collins has seen more playing time recently; he even started this week. And he is already their best pass-coverage linebacker. And Dane Fletcher has gone from special-teams contributor to a one of the better linebackers against pass and run, which is saying a lot given the draft position and talent level of his linebacking mates. It also says a lot about the state of the linebackers; depth and pass-coverage are big problems.
The secondary did a very good job, especially given that #1 corner Aqib Talib is playing injured and #2 corner Alfonzo Dennard was out with his injury. I haven't given rookie Logan Ryan enough praise -- he had another interception today (3rd of the season), 2 passes defended, and 3 tackles. He hasn't been beaten deep that I can remember, and without his play, the injuries would have cost the Patriots the last two games. But instead of the Patriots fighting for a playoff berth at 7-5, they are cruising toward a division crown at 9-3.
Additionally, safety play has been very good of late. Both Steve Gregory and Devin McCourty played deep against Peyton Manning and the Broncos, holding them to 4.1 yards per attempt. This week, Gregory moved up on running plays, and helped stuff them at important junctures of the second half. And McCourty conversely played deep, helping keep things in front of him so the Patriots couldn't lose the game on big plays. Complimentary play, with them doing what they need to do to win each week, and it worked perfectly the last two games.
As for special teams, they had another excellent week. Stephen Gostkowski hit two field goals of 50+ yards in the second half, including the game winner at the end. He missed a 55-yarder into a light wind in the first half, but when the money was on the line he hit the important kicks and booted kickoffs too long to be returned (which was big after the team gave up a 50-yard return in the first half). Punter Ryan Allen had a good average, and allowed only one return for six yards.
The coaching staff once again was outdone in the first half, but made the necessary adjustments to win in the second half. Among those adjustments, more quick passes, some screen passes, and more blitzes on defense. Although Josh McDaniels had his weekly "long pass on a third-and-short" -- but it didn't end up costing the team.
So where does that leave us? 9-3 and sitting in the second playoff spot in the AFC, at the moment. The Patriots incredible run continues, with them now guaranteed a winning record for the 13th straight season. (Trivia question #1: name the team that holds the record of 20 straight winning seasons... answer below.) Time to put this letdown game behind them and focus on the last four games. Another playoff bye is at hand, if they take care of business.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots won the last two games 34-31, the third time under Bill Belichick they won two consecutive games by the exact same score. (Trivia Question #2, name either of the other times they did so... answer below.)
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Thank goodness they've got four games to figure out how not to fall behind early."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 9-3!
PPS. Trivia answer #1:
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The Dallas Cowboys had winning seasons every year from 1966 - 1985.
PPPS. Trivia answer #2: In 2007, the Patriots beat the New York Jets and San Diego Chargers 38-14 in weeks 1 & 2, and in 2010, the Patriots beat the Baltimore Ravens and San Diego Chargers 23-20 in weeks 6 & 7.
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