Dolphins Stun Patriots 27-24, No Playoff Bye

The Patriots got outfoxed by the Dolphins, losing the division home game 27-24. Meanwhile the Kansas City Chiefs won, dropping the Patriots to the #3 playoff seed. The loss was huge, meaning no playoff Bye week, no two-game road to the Super Bowl, likely two road wins to get to the big game at all, and just about no margin for error. Next week the Tennessee Titans come to town for a win-or-go-home tilt in Gillette Stadium.

There was plenty of good and bad from the Dolphins game. But the main questions are: how did this happen? and who is to blame for the loss? The unsatisfying answers are probably that it was the entire team. However, that won't stop me from delving deeper into exactly what went wrong and what it means going forward.

Non-Players

1. Brian Flores and Chad O'Shea

Credit where it is due. Miami head coach Brian Flores had his team ready to go, kept them in the game despite their season being long over, and never assumed he was overmatched against a team with 8 more wins than him. There was talk of tanking in South Florida this season. But I knew in my bones that Flores would never sign-on for that -- this game proved it.

When he left New England for Miami, I predicted that the next time Bill Belichick didn't win the AFC East, it would be Brian Flores atop the division. This game only validates my instinct that Flores is the real deal. And he will have a team that threatens the Patriots dominance within two years.

Also credit to Miami offensive coordinator Chad O'Shea. He emptied the playbook to make every possession count. He never panicked and didn't put his QB in a position to make the big mistakes he has historically made against the Patriots.

2. Bill Belichick

Unlike O'Shea, Belichick did not do everything to maximize his possessions. As the first half drew to a close, he could have used a timeout to give his team the ball with about 1:35 on the clock. Instead he kept the timeout and allowed the Dolphins to run down the clock. The result was the Patriots got the ball with less than a minute to go.

And even with that, Belichick seemed content to run out the clock. Granted this season the team does not have a quick-strike offense. But IMO he should have at least tried to get in position for a field goal. Those potential three points would have come in handy in a game they lost by exactly that many.

Additionally, the gadget plays seemed to catch the Patriots completely off-guard. But O'Shea coached for the Patriots for years, so they should have known something was coming. (Note: one one flea-flicker, they played it perfectly, and the receiver ran the ball instead of throwing it -- and of course he got 11 yards and a first down.)

BB gets adulation when he wins; today he gets blame for the loss.

3. Defensive play-calling

I don't study the "all-22" film, but I don't remember a game this season where the Patriots played as much zone as they against Miami. A very strange choice, given their dominant season playing largely man-coverage.

Maybe it was due to injuries in the secondary. Maybe the coaches expected Ryan Fitzpatrick to toss up a few jump-balls for interceptions. Maybe they just expected the Dolphins to pack it in.

Whatever the reason, the defensive play-calling was far too passive going against a team as offensively limited as Miami.

4. Offensive play-calling and execution

The Patriots ran fo 5.0 yards per carry and 135 yards. But unlike their previous two games, they did not stick with the run to wear down the other team and control the ball. It was especially problematic in the sequence leading to the Patriots lone turnover. They started the game with three runs and eight passes, the eight being intercepted and returned for a touchdown.

Later in the game they found some balance and scored on four of seven drives. But by then, the damage had been done and the Dolphins were convinced they could win.

5. Complacency

Years ago Bill Parcells warned of "trap games," where players had already begun thinking about their next opponent and overlooked the one right in front of them. If ever a game fit that description, it was this one.

Players

1. Tom Brady

His pick-six was a killer, and he just floated the ball out there on that play. He also over-threw Mohamed Sanu on a third-down play and missed several other open receivers.

2. Stephon Gilmore

A supposed candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, Gilmore got lit up by the Dolphins best receiver, DeVante Parker. Granted, some of it was because they were in zone- instead of man-coverage. But Gilmore got caught looking into the backfield on a long gainer up the sideline and lost his man over the middle another time.

You know a corner is having a bad day when he leads the team in tackles, especially when a bunch of them were his guy in coverage.

3. Mohamed Sanu

A play before Brady's interception, Sanu was wide open over the middle and Brady hit him right in the hands in-stride. If Sanu caught it, he would have gained 7+ yards on first down, and maybe the Patriots run the ball for the first down. But instead, it clanged off his hands and fell to the ground incomplete.

Without that drop, maybe Brady never throws the killer pick. Maybe...

4. Marcus Cannon

He chose a bad time to revert to three-years-ago form, but Cannon had his worst or second-worst game of the season, giving up pressure around the corner on too many plays. As a right tackle he doesn't face the best pass rusher, but on Sunday it looked like he was.

5. The rest of the secondary

Fitzpatrick's statlines from the first and second Pats games this year:

• 11 of 21 (52.4%) for 89 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, and a 23.8 QB rating
• 28 of 41 (68.3%) for 320 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, and a 99.6 QB rating

The entire secondary should be embarrassed about this.

Other thoughts

1. Why don't the Patriots use James White more? Two carries for four yards and just three passing targets in the game; all in the second half. If they are saving him for the playoffs, they blew it -- because no amount of rest makes up for missing out on the playoff Bye.

2. Usually former assistants of Belichick's clip him in their first game as head coaches against the Hoodie. This was Flores' second game, but either way, BB is just .500 (12-12) against head coaches who coached under him at some point.

3. Head man Bill Belichick might be spending too much time with the defense. Because his in-game mastery is showing some cracks this year.

He wasn't aggressive at the end of the first half of games against Dallas and Miami, screwed up his challenges against the Chiefs, and the team has had some uncharacteristic brain-cramps (multiple penalties on kickoffs, too many men on the field penalties, etc.).

4. On the plus side of things, the running game was effective again, N'Keal Harry continued to grow into the receiver role, and kicker Nick Folk was perfect yet again. I guess there is always a silver lining...

Where does that leave us? Having to play next weekend instead of getting a week off. Those injuries to Julian Edelman, Brady, Sanu, Jonthan Jones, and Jason McCourty will have to heal in the off-season. Because the playoffs are upon us, and it's all hands on deck.

Biggest on-going issue: Health in the secondary. If the secondary isn't great, the pass rush doesn't look as formidable, and the medium-zone throws against linebackers get a lot easier.

Please have the entire secondary in a huge ice-bath every day after practice. Pretty please... with sugar on top :D

Non-Brady MVP: Danny Shelton was a beast against the run (and the Pats allowed just 2.9 yards per carry) and had six tackles on the day.

Statistical Oddity: Miami head coach Brian Flores went 5-11 in his first year at the helm there. Note that Bill Belichick had the exact same record in his first season with the Patriots (the 2000 season). (Trivia question: Which team handed Belichick his last loss that season, and what was the final score of that game? Answer below.)

Water-cooler wisdom: "Keep telling the Patriots they've never gotten to the Super Bowl without a Bye -- it'll be on their bulletin board all week."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-4 & 0-0!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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Belichick lost the last game of the 2000 season to the Miami Dolphins. The score was identical to yesterday's loss: 27-24. I know, it's a little bit creepy, isn't it?

Pats Hold Off Bills, 24-17, Win AFC East for 11th Straight Season

The Patriots outlasted the Bills 24-17 on Saturday to win the AFC East and put a stranglehold on the #2 AFC playoff seed. The loss locked Buffalo into the #5 seed, and it gave the Patriots their NFL-record 11th consecutive division title. Next week the Miami Dolphins come to town, and a win by the Pats gives them the #2 seed and the playoff bye.

There was a lot to like and some things not to like in this one. Here is a quick list.

Positives

The running game looked a lot stronger, even though Buffalo had a decent run defense. Sony Michel led the team with 21 carries for 96 yards, Rex Burkhead pitched in 20 yards on 5 carries, as the team totaled 143 yards and 4.1 yard a carry. The offensive line opened up holes and got blocks to the second level. On many runs, the linemen were 5+ yards downfield, always a good sign.

QB Tom Brady had his best statistical day in three months: 26 of 33 (78.8%) for 271 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interceptions, no sacks, and a 111.0 QB rating. His throws were crisp and on target, he made good decisions, and he threw it away to avoid bad plays or losses. And it was most encouraging that he did it against the Bills. They entered the game with the second-best pass defense in the league.

The offensive line, which overall kept Brady clean (no sacks and only 4 QB hits) and opened up big holes in the running game. It was a bit of an odd switch of roles though; left tackle Isaiah Wynn wasn't as good as usual, while turnstyle-in-training Marshall Newhouse flourished in a move from left tackle to right tackle.

Everyone is buzzing about N'Keal Harry's emergence, and rightly so. But the rookie's two catches for 21 yards (and two runs for 18 yards) don't tell the entire story of the receiving corps. Here are the number of catches for those with multiple grabs in the game:

• Julian Edelman = 5
• Rex Burkhead = 4
• James White = 4
• Jakobi Meyers = 3
• Mohamed Sanu = 3
• Ben Watson = 3
• N'Keal Harry = 2

I've said it before, the Patriots are a very dangerous playoff opponent when they have diversity in their passing game and overall offense. And that's exactly what they had -- against one of the best NFL defenses, too boot.

The front seven bottled up the run nicely. The running backs of the Bills got just 49 yards on 16 carries, just over 3ypc. If not for QB runs, this would have been the highlight of the defense, but alas Josh Allen ran 7 times for 43 yards and made some big plays to keep drives going.

The Patriots performance on third-down was one of the great contrasts of the game. New England converted 50% of their third-downs (7 of 14) while Buffalo converted just 18% (2 of 11). That helped the Pats build an advantage of almost 18 minutes in time of possession (38:52 to 21:08).

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Nick Folk's impressive 51-yard field goal. It was booted into the wind but had room to spare. For symmetry, the last time he hit a field goal that long was against the Patriots -- November 17, 2016, over three *years* ago! (Trivia Question #1: For which team did Folk kick that field goal? Answer below.)

Among the uneven secondary play, JC Jackson was a standout. He led the team with six tackles and knocked down two passes, including a potential game-tying or game-winning touchdown throw on the Bills last play. I'll get to the rest of the secondary coming right up...

Negatives

The secondary got burned far too often. They gave up deep passes of 25, 33, and 53 yards, and there was a short one that went for another 28. There was too much miscommunication and too many times corners or safeties just got flat-out beaten. And it would have looked a lot worse if Bills QB Josh Allen had hit a few open receivers. Almost no one was immune, and you would not expect this against a team the Patriots see twice a year. Very disappointing.

Coach Bill Belichick's decision to go for a first down late in the second quarter turned out disastrously. He could have punted it deep given the Bills a long field to travel with probably 28-seconds left. But instead, he went for it and failed, giving them the ball at their own 41-yard-line with two timeouts.

Ultimately, the Bills drove down the field and scored a touchdown just before the end of the half. But Belichick's decision was ill-advised. Many have said that if Sanu had made his block they would have had the first-down. But that ignores the risk/reward situation.

The way the Pats offense had been going, they could have expected to get a field goal at best from that drive. That was the potential reward. But the risk was exactly what happened; that the good field position would net the Bills a touchdown. And after a half dominating Buffalo, they went to the locker room tied, when the Patriots should have been up by 7 points. It was a bad risk/reward decision by the Hooded One.

Sanu played an awful game. He whiffed on the block on that aforementioned fourth-down play. And he fielded a punt he should never have been close to, risking a muff that would have changed momentum. Not sure if his ankle injury is still bothering him, but he's one of the players who will benefit from some time off if the Patriots get a playoff Bye.

Where does that leave us? One more win and the Patriots get their traditional week off before the playoffs. Miami is pretty terrible, and they almost never win important games at Foxboro. So if form holds, the Patriots will play their first post-season game on 1/11 or 1/12/2020. Here's hoping!

Biggest on-going issue: It's still the offense, though there were hopeful signs this week. The most underplayed issue is that there have been more game-operation problems with the Pats sideline than most years. But that is secondary to the offense at this point.

Non-Brady MVP: Rex Burkhead, despite his fumble. He gave the team a spark in both the run and pass games, and his 19.3 yards per catch is excellent on four catches.

Statistical oddity: Since the NFL realigned divisions in 2002, no team in the AFC East has won more games than the Patriots in any single year. The two seasons since then where the Patriots didn't win the division was because of tie-breakers.

(Trivia Question #2: name the quarterbacks to play the majority of the snaps for the two non-Patriots teams that won the AFC East since 2000. Answer below.)

Water-cooler wisdom: "A great game and a good win. One more good win and they get a week off."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer #1:
Folk kicked the 51-yarder for the New York Jets.

PPPS. Trivia answer #2:
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Trick question; only one quarterback turned the trick. Chad Pennington played the majority of the snaps for the 2002 Jets and the 2008 Dolphins, which are the only teams other than the Patriots to win the division in the last 19 seasons.

Patriots Dispatch Bengals 34-13,Gain Playoff Berth

The Patriots outclassed Cincy, beating the Bengals 34-13 to run their record to 11-3. The win guarantees the Pats a playoff berth, and keeps them in the hunt for the #2 overall AFC seed. Next up is the showdown with Buffalo, who comes to Gillette this Saturday to try to knock the Patriots from their usual perch atop the AFC East.

If you didn't watch this game, it was a lot more tense than the final score indicates. The Bengals led 10-7 early, were running the ball all over the place, and had a third-and-2 at the Pats 31 yard-line. They could have made things really uncomfortable with a score there. But they got stuffed on third- and fourth-downs and the Pats took control of the game from that point.

As is often the case, QB Tom Brady started slowly. He misfired on his first throw of the game (and was pissed at himself about it) and completed less than 50% of his passes in the first half. He sometimes has trouble coming out firing these days. Too many high or low passes. This game, he ended up with pretty boring numbers: 15 of 29 (52%), 128 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an 86.6 rating. But perhaps most important was the 0 next to interceptions.

In fairness, his receivers dropped a bunch of passes, too. Mohamed Sanu dropped a fourth-down pass for the second time in three games. Julian Edelman and James White also had drops, and the offense just couldn't sustain anything after the opening drive.

The O played better in the last 35 minutes. That was partially because they just executed better, but they also benefited from short fields after turnovers. Including a blocked punt late in the first half, the Patriots scored on drives of minus-5 yards, 43 yards, and 40 yards. Not exactly the kind of sustained success you'd hope to see. (Note: the defense threw in a pick-six score for the final total.)

On offense, the Patriots seem to come in with decent first-drive plans, having scored on their opening possession the last three games. But once their opponents see the plan and make adjustments, it often takes until the second half to come up with Plan B. That works against also-rans like the Bengals, but it likely won't in the playoffs.

The running game took center stage yesterday. New England rushed for a season-high 175 yards and got 5.5 yards per carry. Sony Michel led the team with 89 yards, and Rex Burkhead chipped in 53 and an 8.8ypc average (and a nifty 33-yard touchdown). Also, running back James White led all receivers with 3 catches and 49 yards.

If White's numbers look pedestrian for someone who led the team, then you can guess how the receivers looked. The last time Edelman had as few as 2 catches in a Tom Brady start was all the way back in 2014. N'Keal Harry looked okay some of the time, but even on his touchdown, he took over 5 seconds to get open at the end-line. Sanu caught 2 passes and fumbled one of them, and tight end Ben Watson zeroed out the stat sheet. Only tight end Matt LaCosse and Harry looked better than usual in this contest.

One note on the offensive line, Marcus Cannon had an absolutely dreadful day. The Bengals sacked Brady twice and hit him six other times. And it seemed like every time it happened it was Cannon's guy coming around edge to put the hurt on Brady. He's played better this year, and it would be a bad time for him to start losing form -- maybe O-line coach Dante Scarnecchia can work some magic with him.

As per usual, the defense was the best of the three units by far. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore picked off two passes, including the aforementioned return for touchdown. And his INT on the Bengals' first drive of the second half turned the tide firmly in the Patriots favor. If Cincy had scored, they could have been in the lead -- but after the INT, the Pats scored and it was getting away from the Bengals.

Corner JC Jackson also had two picks, and he and Gilmore also knocked away seven other passes, which is an almost unheard of number for one game! Safety Patrick Chung and corner Terrence Brooks were up-and-down, and Jonathan Jones got beaten on another touchdown. But even with those issues, a very impressive day for the secondary.

The linebackers started slow but got better as the game wore on. On Cincinnati's only touchdown drive, Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower both missed tackles in the backfield on one play -- a play that went for a 29 yard run. Collins got better, though Hightower wasn't that noticeable. By game's end, backup Ja'Whaun Bentley was making plays in mop-up duty. Also of note: rookie Chase Winovich seems good for a few QB pressures and hustle plays every game.

Bentley shared the team lead in tackles (7) with defensive lineman Deatrich Wise, who did a great job clogging the middle after the first few drives. Danny Shelton also performed well on the line, getting six tackles of his own.

Special teams ace Matthew Slater caused a fumbled punt, and it was recovered by another ST ace, Justin Bethel. The Patriots didn't go after blocks this week, but special teams still made a real impact. The Bengals used timeouts to get the ball back before the half, but Slater and Bethel denied them -- giving the Pats the ball and a field goal before intermission.

As for the coaching, one thing I've noticed is there are more in-game issues with the Pats than usual. In the second quarter yesterday, John Simon was called for a penalty on an Andy Dalton incompletion. But on the play, it was pretty clearly intentional grounding on Dalton. But Belichick never even looked at, let alone yelled at, an official on that one.

I wonder if BB has taken on so much with the defense that some of the in-game management has suffered. Against the Chiefs they ran out of challenges after one was wasted on an unlikely overturn. And in that game, they didn't even try for points with good field position before the half, seeming to run out the clock rather than attack as they normally would.

It bears watching, but there do seem to have been far more game-management issues in 2019 than in past years.

Where does that leave us? 11-3 and in the playoffs for the 11th straight year. It's a far cry from the Rod Rust years in the old stadium. Next up are the Bills, who won to keep pace yesterday. A win and the Patriots are AFC East Champs yet again.

Believe it or not, the Patriots control the division even if they lose on Saturday (4:30pm). Their 10-1 record against common opponents would be the tiebreaker in effect if they lose to Buffalo (currently 8-3) and they end up with the same record.

However, things would be much simpler if the Patriots won out. That way they'd have a playoff bye and the division crown. They can lose the #2 seed to Kansas City under the above scenario. So better to just beat the Bills, like they usually do :D

Biggest on-going problem: Offensive consistency. First drive, "Yay!" Rest of the first half, "Meh..." Second half, "Woohoo!"

They need to get rid of that second part.

Non-Brady MVP: Stephon Gilmore, who basically shut down the Bengals best receiver (Tyler Boyd, 3 catches for 26 yards), knocked down four passes, intercepted two passes, and returned one of those for six points. As far as I'm concerned, he can take the Miami game off, he's earned it!

Statistical oddity: It's been 46 years since a team finished with three of the top five intercepting players in the league. The Patriots have a real shot at it this year, with Gilmore, Jackson, and safety Devin McCourty among the league leaders. (Trivia question: can you name the team that did it in 1973? Answer below...)

Water-cooler wisdom: "The Bills are better than expected, but Josh Allen isn't ready to take down the best secondary in the league."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 11-3!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The 1973 Pittsburgh Steelers had Mike Wagner, Glen Edwards, and John Rowser in the top 5 in Interceptions that year.

Brady Now More Likely To Leave Than Retire

For a while it has appeared that 2019 will be Tom Brady's last season in New England. Mostly I thought retirement was the most likely outcome. But now I'm thinking the odds have shifted on his future.

I have come to believe that the most likely scenario is Brady leaving to play somewhere else in 2020. There is a lot of evidence already in place, which I'll list here but not rehash. (A) His contract was re-done so it expires after this year. (B) He and his trainer (Alex Guerrero) put their houses up for sale. (C) He resigned from the local chapter of Best Buddies charity.

In the past few weeks, two new things popped up that helped sway me to believe that TB12 might leave for another team.

The first is that he started making noise about playing until he was 47. My thinking had been that if he was only going to play until 45 (as he asserted previously), it didn't make sense to leave the Pats for a rebuild project somewhere else. If he did that, it would take a year or two to rebuild the new team. And that would give him just one or two shots at another Super Bowl win.

However, if he is planning to play until 47, a one/two-year rebuild gives him three or four shots at another Super Bowl in the new location. IMO, that is a much more attractive option for Brady.

The second thing is that Tom Brady, Sr. said publicly that his son wants to continue playing after this year. He could be wrong, but something tells me he has more information than most when it comes to Tom Jr.'s decision.

Putting these two new facts into the mix changes the picture significantly. I previously thought there was a 50% chance he'd retire, a 40% chance he come back to New England, and a 10% chance he'd play somewhere else.

Now I think it's more like a 60% chance he'll play somewhere else, a 30% chance he'll be back with the Pats, and a 10% chance he'll retire. IMO he is now twice as likely to leave than to stay.

(Note: I have no inside information about this. Zero, zilch, nada, bagel! This is just me putting together information that is known to the public.)

If Brady leaves, the question then becomes which team he would play for in 2020. Here are the three strongest contenders, in my opinion:

1. Miami Dolphins. He knows a lot of the coaching staff there, the weather is much nicer, and they have plenty of salary cap space to pay him absolute top dollar. This would also give him two games a year against the Jets and Bills, teams he has absolutely owned over the years.

A bonus for him might be the chance to stick it to the Patriots twice a year. But that is a double-edged sword -- as he'd have to face Belichick, the greatest coach of all time. No easy task.

2. Tennessee Titans. They have a defense that's ready for prime time, and are a QB away from being a legitimate contender. And as well as Ryan Tannehill has played for them, the organization should be honest with itself about his ceiling. This year is more likely fool's gold than actual treasure.

A huge bonus would be that this division is always (and I mean *always*) mediocre. Since 2013, no team has won 12 games in a season. And multiple division champs were 9-7 during that time. In other words, Brady would *own* this division for the foreseeable future.

3. Los Angeles Chargers. The team moves into a new stadium next year, but they are an afterthought to the LA Rams. Signing Brady would get fans into the stands. And he'd be able to expand his TB12 health centers to the west coast.

The downside is that he'd always be on the "afterthought" team in LA -- because the owner of the stadium owns the Rams. And he'd have to face stronger competition in the AFC West than the AFC South.

Lastly, don't think I'm bummed about this. The media plays it up like it would be a disaster to lose Brady. But that attitude does two things that I don't like.

First, it takes away from watching him and the team now. If fans started worrying about the future when Brady first started to decline, they wouldn't have enjoyed the last three Super Bowls as much as they could.

Second, it assumes that the Patriots will be lost without Brady. I don't think that will ever be true as long as Belichick is in New England.

I've said for years that Belichick gets you to the playoffs almost every year. But it's Belichick/Brady that got the team to nine Super Bowls and won six Championships.

Without Brady, Belichick probably would have won one or two Super Bowls. So without Brady going forward, don't expect the Pats to fall off a cliff.

I still hope Brady doesn't leave. But if it does, get ready for: "We're on to Stidham."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-3!

Patriots Lose Yet Another Big Game, 23-16 to Chiefs

The Patriots went down big and then clawed back, only to lose to the Chiefs on Sunday, 23-16. The loss keeps them a game up in the AFC East; however, it all but concedes the #1 AFC seed to the Baltimore Ravens (essentially two-games up with three games to play). The Pats retain the #2 seed position for now. Next up it's "On To Cincinnati" -- the perfect cure for what ails the Patriots.

The Pats had no business making this game close. KC dominated the first 37 minutes and was leading 23-7 at the time. But the New England defense tightened up, the offense figured out a few things, and they got another big special teams play to make it a game. But it was too little too late, as their 21-game home winning streak came to an end.

There were several blown calls that cost the Patriots points. And either of them could have swung the game in New England's favor. But let's be realistic; going down 23-7 to Kansas City is almost never a formula success. And they exhausted their timeouts and challenges hanging onto hope for dear life. They needed a bit more luck to win, and it never came through.

The defense was okay but not great. They held the Chiefs to 23 points (a touchdown less than their average). But they gave up too many big plays in the passing game, which let KC score easy points. And three of the four longest plays for the Chiefs came on third-downs, each helping keep drives alive when the Pats needed to get off the field.

Particularly galling were the 23-yard pass to Sammy Watkins on a third-and-10, and an outrageous 21-yarder to Tyreek Hill on third-and-19. Third-and-19 and they converted... really?! Doh! On balance the secondary played well, but situationally they need improvement.

The defensive star of the game was probably safety Devin McCourty. Not only did he lead the team with 9 tackles, but he forced a huge fumble on a second-effort play that gave the Pats a chance at the end. Linebacker Jamie Collins (7 tackles, 1 QB hit, 1 pass defended), and interior lineman Adam Butler (4 tackles and good inside run support) also played very well.

On offense it's tough to find many bright spots. That unit was pathetic in the first half, and looked a lot like they did in recent games against the Ravens and Texans. In fact, the game went almost exactly like the Texans tilt -- the Patriots got dominated for three quarters and then came to life at the end of both games, only to fall short each time.

It was good to see the tight end Matt LaCosse get more involved. But the rookies had mixed results: N'Keal Harry's only catch should have been a touchdown but the officials blew the call. And Jacobi Meyers dropped an easy first down toss on third-down -- on a drive where the Pats went for it on fourth-down and missed.

Maybe the only positive offensively was how they put together drives late. But even that comes with a caveat: they should have made their adjustment earlier in the game. Any score earlier would have made it a much closer contest later.

Special teams were very trick-or-treat. They had a field goal blocked when a guy busted right through the middle almost untouched. But then they had the block on a KC punt that got them back in the game. However, on one Chiefs punt they left no returner back, and the ball bounced KC's way for an additional 20 yards of field position.

There were a lot of problems with the coaching in this one. First was the inability to adjust the offense until far too late in the game. Then the first challenge by Bill Belichick was on a pass-interference non-call/first-down mark. He was unlikely to win the first, and upon seeing the replays, had no chance to win the second.

Later on, when N'Keal Harry was called out-of-bounds at the three yard-line, they needed that challenge to get those points. Also, the curious decision not to use a punt returner backfired.

And after the Harry non-TD, the team sorta fell apart. They ran a James White sweep to avoid a five-yard penalty, but instead lost two yards and a down. Then they had an incompletion to Meyers that was signaled TD by one ref -- so the offense started leaving the field. But when it was reversed by another official, the team burned a timeout that they could have used later in the half. A curiously non-Patriots-like sequence of plays.

Where does this leave us? 10-3 still isn't bad, but the team is now in a dogfight for the division title and the #2 seed. Their offense should have been better against KC. So that tells me their offense is what it is: 14-21 points a game and hope the defense can hold the opponent down.

Non-Brady MVP: Probably Julian Edelman again. 8 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown, 1 rush for 8 yards, and drew double-teams all night so other receivers could get open.

Biggest on-going concern: Offensive futility. Although they appeared to have figured out something, that by putting Edelman outside the numbers, they could move one of the safeties out of the middle of the field.

The problems started up front this time, with sometimes porous protection and sometimes the inability to run the ball. But wherever they started, they will likely be the downfall of the team come playoff time.

Statistical oddity: With James White's touchdown pass, the Patriots now have two people on the team with higher QB ratings that Tom Brady. White (118.8) and Edelman (158.3) have higher ratings than Brady (86.5).

(Trivia Question: can you name the last year two Patriots players had higher season-long QB ratings than Brady? Bonus question: can you name either of the two players? Answers below.)

Water-cooler wisdom: "It ain't over 'til it's over, but it sure feels over."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-3!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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In 2001, Brady's first year as a starter, both receiver David Patten (95.8) and running back Kevin Faulk (118.8) had higher QB ratings than Brady (86.5).

Double-bonus trivia question: In the 2000 season, three players had better QB ratings than Brady... how many of the three can you name? Answer below.

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Double-bonus trivia answer: QB Drew Bledsoe (77.3), QB Michael Bishop (64.4), and punter Lee Johnson (118.8) had better QB ratings than Brady (42.4).

Patriots Drop Big Game to Texans, 28-22

The Patriots lost a big one last night, with the Texans handing them their only important loss to the franchise in its history -- 28-22. The loss drops the Patriots into the #2 playoff seed, and leaving them with a razor-thin one-game lead in the AFC East (over Buffalo). Next week doesn't get any easier, with the Kansas City Chiefs coming to town.

If you watched the game, you probably saw as much as I did. The Pats offense couldn't get out of its own way for most of the game. They scored touchdowns on their last three drives, but it was too little too late. And their defense played mediocre most of the game, giving up four TDs, one after an interception and two after loooong drives.

They can blame the flu (which took out half the team). They can blame Romeo Crennel's great defensive plan. They can blame the play-calling. But the fact is that teams have a simple formula to stop the Patriots passing game. Double Julian Edelman, cover James White with a defensive back, and dare anyone else to beat man-coverage.

I won't really know how the offense is going until the next two games. The Dallas tilt was a quagmire, not much to learn there. And the other two bad offensive performances were all on the road, where crowd noise causes problems. If they hold onto the #2 seed, that means at least one home playoff game. So that means how they perform the next two weeks will tell us a lot about how things will go in the playoffs. Assuming they make it :(

And for crying out loud, can they play with a little better plan to start the games? And a little more urgency on offense? The last four games combined, they have 10 total points in the first quarter. And seven of those came after a blocked punt against Dallas.

Time for Josh McDaniels to earn his keep and come up with a better plan entering the game. Falling behind KC or the Bills (in three weeks) won't do. If you could score three straight TDs late, then figure out how to do it early.

As for this game, the only real stand out was James White. The Pats finally figured out that when he's in the game teams expect passing plays. So they ran him instead -- to the tune of 79 yards on 14 carries (a 5.6ypc average).

The Pats will need to play White more, even if it means risking injury or wearing him out. They just don't have lots of other good options at this point. Sony Michel is useless in the passing game. And Rex Burkhead isn't consistent enough.

Among the receivers, Mohamed Sanu has Brady's trust but he dropped a fourth-down throw that hit him in the hands (and he also fielded a punt inside the 10 yard-line, a no-no on special teams). However, Jacobi Meyers got more targets this week, with some positive results. But then on the downside again, Phillip Dorsett seems to have lost the ability to beat any defenders one-on-one.

The defense is still playing at a historically excellent pace. But it's apparent that if the team doesn't get ahead, they aren't exactly the reincarnation of the 2000 Ravens. They can be had if the other team doesn't have to throw all the time to get back into the game. Balanced offenses give them real trouble, specifically the linebackers, who have trouble covering receivers.

Special teams actually played pretty well. The punting and kickoffs were solid and they got the one field goal they attempted. They even had a real shot at an onside kick that could have given them a chance to pull out the victory. But alas, it bounced off Brandon Bolden's hand and out-of-bounds :(

(Note: I put the missed extra point on the coaching staff. They decided to get cute and look at a two-point conversion. And when they didn't get the defensive look they wanted, they took a five-yard delay of game penalty. Then the kick went slightly wide left. Not on the kicker, IMO, on the coaches.)

Where does that leave us? Not quite the #1 seed anymore, but still in line for a playoff Bye if they hold serve. Recovering from the flu will help. And maybe that KC defense will cure what ails the offense... but I won't hold my breath on that one.

Biggest ongoing concern: It's the offense, specifically the receivers not getting separation. The running game isn't a concern, because they won't be lining up to run on anyone anytime soon. They have to get the receiver thing figured out, or they are going no where in the post-season.

Non Brady MVP: James White, who had the aforementioned running stats and also 8 catches for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns. I sort of think the team rediscovered White this week, and I hope they continue to use him.

Statistical oddity: So far this year, the AFC East is 11-4 against the NFC East (a winning percentage of .733). And the bottom of the AFC East stinks -- which shows you how bad the NFC East is. Washington and the Giants should be relegated.

Water-cooler wisdom: "Four games to figure out the offense, or they are toast in the playoffs."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-2!

Patriots Outlast Eagles 17-10

New England gave up two first-quarter scores, then scored 17 unanswered points to take a road win in Philly, 17-10. The win put them at 9-1, still a game up on Baltimore and two games up on the Bills for the division lead. Next week the Cowboys ride into town for a tussle at Gillette Stadium.

For the second straight game, the opponent came out of their Bye week with a good initial plan. The Ravens started out 17-0 and won by 17 points. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they started out 10-0 but couldn't sustain it. The Pats made adjustments and shut down Philly the rest of the game.

It seems that good teams can attack the Patriots defense early, especially if they have two weeks to prepare. That might not seem like much of a problem. But remember; the Patriots are in position to have a playoff Bye, which is a two-week break. And the Super Bowl (if they get that far) is played after two weeks off.

IMO, the team has to do a better job of defensive preparation to begin games. In the games against Baltimore and Philadelphia, they allowed 27 points in the first quarters and 20 total points in the other quarters combined. That might not cost them in the regular season, but it will against good teams in the playoffs.

As for this game, the defense adjusted and played very well after the first quarter. The offense did decent in the mid-game, scoring on four straight drives. But even though they made that stand up, they were much too inconsistent on offense.

The offensive line played poorly most of the game. And the pressure caused missed throws by QB Tom Brady and first-half running problems. There were also wrong routes by several receivers (Jacobi Meyers and Sony Michel specifically), and blown up screen passes, any of which could have led to interceptions.

The good news on offense is that both Rex Burkhead and Ben Watson get more involved with each passing week. Also, rookies Meyers and N'Keal Harry are at least trusted enough to contribute occasional receptions for first downs. And the protection and run-blocking should look better when tackle Isaiah Wynn returns from injured reserve next week. Should; but no guarantees.

A sign that the team is spreading the ball around is that only Julian Edelman had double-digit targets (10 exactly). That also bodes well heading into the stretch run. Oh, and Edelman also had the only touchdown pass of the game, to Phillip Dorsett on a double-pass.

The defensive adjustments were excellent. After the first three drives, the team double-teamed on tight end Zach Ertz and that at least limited the damage he did. And the tight man-coverage forced quarterback Carson Wentz to hold the ball an extra second and read deep into his progressions.

The result was five sacks for 40 yards and just 50% completions. After their initial scoring surge, the Eagles punted seven times, lost a fumble, turned it over on downs, and the game ended.

Secondary play was very good against everyone except Ertz. New(ish)comer Terrence Brooks tied for the team lead with seven tackles and he knocked down two passes and had two QB pressures to boot. The team benefited from some missed throws by Wentz and dropped passes. But overall they did a great job adjusting in-game.

Along the line, defensive tackle Danny Shelton merits special mention. He also had seven tackles, a rarity for a Patriots interior lineman. He also had a sack, a QB pressure, and forced the game's only fumble -- which the Pats recovered and turned into a field goal.

Special teams played a big role in the win. New kicker Nick Folk hit three of three field goals. And punter Jake Bailey had six kicks downed inside the 20. That field position forced the Eagles to go a long field too many times -- and they could only convert one of those long-fields into points.

As for the coaching, the defensive adjustments were excellent, and the offensive play-calling was very good. The offensive execution wasn't great, but some of that was probably rust from the week off, and some of it was also working in new players. Josh McDaniels has some work left to do with this group.

Where does this leave us? 9-1 and atop the AFC isn't half-bad for a team with so much local media gnashing of teeth. The kicking game and defense are in fine shape. It remains to be seen if the offense can score enough once the January games begin. Next up are the Cowboys. And I still think their QB, Dak Prescott, is about to learn how tough it is to play a Belichick defense for the first time.

Biggest on-going concern: It has to be the offensive line. The team is involving more and more receivers every week. But they can't run and the backside pressure is getting to Brady far too often.

Non-Brady MVP: A three-way tie between Bailey, Brooks, and Edelman. One from each phase of the game... wouldn't BB be proud :D

Statistical oddity: For all the consternation about the Miami Dolphins "tanking" this season, head coach Brian Flores has the same record in his first 10 games as Bill Belichick did in his first 10 games with the Patriots: 2-8.

Bonus oddity: Julian Edelman has a career QB rating of 158.3 -- which is the highest you can record, a "perfect" QB rating.

Water-cooler wisdom: "The Pats have to lose two more games to get knocked out of a playoff Bye. And I don't see two more losses on the schedule."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-1!

Patriots 2019 Mid-Season Review

So we are just a little over halfway through the season, and the Patriots have a well-earned week off. They are 8-1 so far, a game better than I thought they'd be at this point (7-2). And they and the Ravens have separated themselves from the AFC pack. The Pats are two-games clear of every non-Baltimore team in the AFC, and the Ravens are at least one-game clear of everyone else.

Also, somehow the Patriots gained ground in the playoffs last week, despite not playing. KC lost, Buffalo lost, and the Colts lost. So just by not playing, the Patriots improved their potential playoff lot. Thank you to the terrible AFC.

It's been a weird ride so far. The defense looked historically good through eight games, but it appears the schedule was about to get harder. And sure enough, those same Ravens put up 37 on the Patriots (30 on the defense), bringing those expectations down a notch.

But the reality is they could still be historically good. The team that holds the current record for fewest points given up in 16-game season gave up 36 points in a single game once. So if that was an aberration for the Patriots, then they could still stack up favorably.

Where do they stand at this point? Read on to find out:

Offense

1. No Running Game Bailout In 2019

Last year the running game came to the fore as the team moved toward the playoffs. The passing attack was middle-of-the-road most of that year, so they needed to run to stay in games. And they rode that and an attacking, confusing defense to a Super Bowl victory.

But they've suffered too many losses on offense to duplicate that formula this year. Here are the key players who are not available anymore:

• Tight end Rob Gronkowski (retirement)
• Tight end Dwayne Allen (cut)
• Center David Andrews (blood clots)
• Left tackle Trent Brown (free agent, signed with Oakland)
• Fullback James Develin (neck injury)

Given how key those players were to the ground game, this season's inconsistency isn't surprising. And it is unlikely the Patriots will be able to duplicate their run-and-defend playoff metamorphosis from last year. They are averaging a full yard less per carry this year than they did last year (3.3ypc vs. 4.3ypc in 2018). So don't bank on the run game for a post-season bailout.

2. Diversifying The Passing Attack

Given the lack of a dominant running game, the Patriots will likely rise or fall based on their air attack. And as is usually the case, it will depend less on who is catching the passes and more on how many different targets are actual threats in the passing game.

When the Pats have a diversified passing attack, it usually bodes well for post-season success. Teams just have trouble when they have to cover 4+ legitimate receivers. It's especially true when New England can keep the same personnel on the field, go no-huddle to limit substitutions, and find the weak spots in the defense.

The past few weeks have shown that that is exactly what they are trying to do. In recent games, nine different receivers have caught at least 2 passes in at least one game. And spreading the ball around is the best way to attack defenses that don't need to worry about the run.

If Ben Watson and Mohamed Sanu continue to work their way into the offense, then the Patriots could make some playoff noise. If not, then it'll be Edelman, White, and patching it together after that -- not a great formula to beat good teams.

3. QB Questions

Tom Brady is on pace for his worst QB Rating since 2013, the year before Jimmy Garoppolo arrived in New England. The more worrying thing is that his 93.7 rating this year has been compiled against some of the worst teams in the NFL: Dolphins, Jets (twice), Giants, Browns, and Washington. Those performances don't predict that he'll light it up against better teams the second half of the year.

He didn't exactly set the league on fire last year. But he had a very good defense and an efficient running game to lean on. This year, the running game is pedestrian. And while the defense has looked very good, it's still tough to win without excellent QB play.

Brady has always shined most brightly when the games get more important down the stretch. However, this year I would not predict any great increase in his stats starting now. The teams they face coming up are better, and he does happen to be 42 years old. The decline might have begun at this point.

Defense

1. Talent All Over The Field

The defense is loaded this year. They started the season on an historic pace, giving up just 6.8 points per game. (And that included several scores given up on special teams or on offensive turnovers.)

The last game always looms large in the NFL. But don't be fooled by the 37 dropped on the Patriots by Baltimore. The defense has very talented players at all three levels, some playing the best of their careers at the same time. That is always a lethal combination.

There is little chance the Patriots D will set any NFL records. But they'll probably be good enough for a 14-2 or 13-3 record.

2. Size Matters

The only concern on defense is how they hold up against good running teams. The Pats like to play with two or three down-linemen and four or five linebackers. That's because they are loaded with LB talent.

The problems come when teams commit to the run. It can be harder for smaller linebackers to hold up against large offensive lines with good blocking tight ends. We saw that on display against Baltimore. Here's hoping we don't see it again this year.

3. Who's The Boss

For those who wondered who would call the defensive plays this year, the answer is in. It's Belichick. Not Bill -- his son Steve is calling the defensive signals. He's done a great job so far; but needed to adjust quicker in the Ravens game. Baltimore had a better plan that day, and they jetted to a 17-0 lead -- and the won by exactly those 17 points (37-20).

The Pats need a better plan coming in and also need to adjust better than they against the Ravens.

Special Teams

1. Added Talent

New punter Jake Bailey has been great kicking, tied for second in the league with 21 punts downed inside the 20 yardline. He also has been kicking off since Stephen Gostkowski got injured (out for the year), and Bailey had only one misstep in that area -- a boot out of bounds.

The Patriots also brought back Brandon Bolden to help on Special Teams. Unfortunately ST stalwart Brandon King went down, but the team brought in Justin Bethel -- one of the best special teamers in the entire league.

Special teams has more big plays this year, and with Bailey punting, they are always a threat to pin teams deep.

2. Kicking Game Ups-And-Downs

One other addition was Mike Nugent, who lasted just four games in relief of Gostkowski before being cut. Nick Folk did fine in relief of Nugent in his first game with the Pats. But that situation bears watching, as he was out of the league since missing three kicks for the Buccaneers against the Patriots.

Also of note: Bailey hasn't been clean on his field goal holds. At least twice he put the laces toward the kicker -- a big no-no. To quote Pete Carroll: "Gotta clean it up."

Quick Hits

1. For all the bluster about the much tougher the up-coming schedule, here are the aggregate records of the Patriots opponents:

First 9 games: 30-52 (36.6%)
Last 7 games: 30-34 (46.9%)

Better for sure, but not exactly a barn-burning sked.

2. The 2019 record of the four QBs drafted by Bill Belichick is 25-6 (Brady, Jacoby Brissett, Brian Hoyer, and Jimmy Garoppolo). I heard somewhere that BB stinks at the draft; guess not :)

3. I don't pay much attention to Fantasy Football, preferring the real thing. But I was made aware that the Patriots defense has outscored all but a few of the top-scoring players in the league. In fact, before the Baltimore game, they had outscored all but two players! (Trivia Question: can you name those two players? Answer below.)

And yes, this is unprecedented. Currently, the Pats D ranks 16th in Fantasy points. Annually, the best defenses usually rank about 50th!

Summary and a Look Ahead

The Patriots are in position for a playoff bye, as usual. The second half schedule is more difficult, but it doesn't look too daunting. I'd predict a 14-2 or 13-3 record to finish the year.

They'll have to keep the passing attack diversified. And everyone in New England will be keeping their fingers and toes crossed that no games come down to Nick Folk's right foot. He looked good in his first week, but better not to tempt fate on that one :D

Next week at Philly, the Eagles are missing two key ingredients of their Super Bowl win over the Pats: QB Nick Foles and offensive coordinator Frank Reich. That makes it a much tougher game, and also Carson Wentz' first action against a BB defense. Could be entertaining to watch!

I hope you enjoyed the first half of the year as much as I did. I like blowout wins over the Dolphins and Jets, and even the Baltimore loss was entertaining.

Enjoy the rest of the year!

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-1!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The Patriots D trailed only Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson in Fantasy point production prior to the week 9 loss to the Ravens.

Patriots Undressed By Ravens, 37-20

The 2019 Patriots lost for the first time last night, 37-20, to the Baltimore Ravens. The win leaves them 1.5 games up on Buffalo for the division lead, and also 1.5 games up on those same Ravens in the race for AFC playoff seeding. Next week is a Bye, so no game but keep an eye out for a mid-season update/review.

The Ravens won this game because they were better prepared. They jetted out to a 17-0 lead in the first 16 minutes of the game. And after that, the Patriots got two turnovers and scored 20 points, and the Ravens got two turnovers and 20 scored 20 points. So if the Pats were better prepared at the start, they would have been right there.

Baltimore confused the Pats defense with their diverse running attack, using their confusion for the first three scores. But after that the game settled down and the New England offense and defense played markedly better.

It was a great adjustment to go no-huddle to wear down the Ravens D and then run it down their throats later in the game. And it helped that Baltimore fumbled twice (a punt and the running back). But after the blistering Ravens start, it was too-little too-late.

As with all close games, there were maddening moments that could have turned the tide.

The first Ravens TD came after the Patriots were offside on a field goal attempt. The Ravens got unneeded help from the officials on a few other plays (two examples: Hightower's offside should have been a false start on the long-snapper, and a killer non-call on an obvious pick play -- both of which gave the Ravens easy first downs). And James White was inches away from a TD at the end of the first half. 

But most frustrating of all was watching the Pats offense. Multiple times they had easy plays for short gains but went for long passes. With the almost the entire fourth quarter to play, the Pats were down 10 and had a first-down in Baltimore territory. Here is what happened next:

Play #1. Brady did not audible when there was an unusual 10-yard cushion on an outside receiver (I think it was Phillip Dorsett). A change of play, or just a knowing nod to the receiver, and a quick-throw outside picks up at least 5-7 yards easily. But instead, it was a throw to a covered Mohamed Sanu.

Play #2. Instead of taking a short gain over the middle, Brady forced the ball deep to tight end Ben Watson down the seam. It's the kind of pass Rob Gronkowski sometimes made; a low pass where he had to dive, catch, and roll to get it. But Ben Watson isn't Rob Gronkowski, so it fell incomplete.

Play #3. Knowing they were in a four-down situation, the Patriots should have tried to gain some yardage to give themselves a chance on fourth-down. Instead, Brady dropped way back and under pressure threw one up for grabs at the 5 yard line. Interception! It was so badly underthrown that the "intended receiver," (Sanu) couldn't even get to the intercepting player to touch him down at the 5, so he returned it to the 33 yard line.

In summary, the Patriots were unprepared, the defense was confused and overmatched, the offense was inconsistent and turned the ball over, and the referees helped the Ravens. Hence a 17-point loss.

Positives from the game:

1. Sanu had 10 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. With the Pats in desperate need of diversifying their offensive attack, adding Sanu to Edelman, James White, and Ben Watson is what the doctor ordered.

2. The overall plan of going up-tempo to wear the opponent down worked pretty well. Given that they started slow running but ended up averaging 4.4 ypc, it was impressive. And being able to run or throw to White against a tired defense actually helped.

3. The defensive adjustments were good, if not geat. Even though they came too late, the Patriots D settled down and slowed down the Ravens O. In the mid-game the Patriots outscored the Ravens 20-7. Unfortunately it wasn't enough to overcome the two turnovers.

4. Nick Folk > Mike Nugent. Not that he was great, but you have less fear with Folk coming out to kick than you had with Nugent. Most of the kicks were right down the middle; only one real exception moved to the left, but it was still good.

5. A big-picture positive: the Ravens beat both the Chargers and Browns the first time they saw QB Lamar Jackson -- and both trounced the Ravens the second time they played him. It might take that one game to see what you are up against. And the Patriots just got that out of the way.

Where does that leave us? 8-1 still isn't bad, but it does make things tighter in the AFC. I predicted they'd lose this game when I made my Preseason Picks in September, because it was a big spot and the Ravens had a Bye week to work on it. So take it as a given they would lose and move on. The Patriots Bye will give them a chance to regroup and better integrate Sanu.

Biggest on-going issue: If the kicking game holds up, then it's a tie between the O-line and wild INTs from Tom Brady. They need to give help to Marshall Newhouse at left tackle. And even more, they need Isiah Wynn to return to take his place.

As for Brady, I agree with Al the Weather God, who wrote that he'd like TB12 to look less like Brett Favre. Take what the defense gives you and live to play another down. It worked for your first three Super Bowls, it can work again!

Non-Brady MVP: Punter Jake Bailey, who had three of his five punts downed inside the 20, and who gave up an average return of 1.4 yards. He also kicked off and held on all those perfect kicks.

Statistical Oddity: The Patriots defense had given up just 40 points in the first 8 games. And they gave up 30 last night.

Water-cooler wisdom: "That game was bound to be tough; things should get better as they get healthier."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-1!