Monday, October 30, 2017

Patriots Keep Rolling With 21-13 Win Over Chargers

Three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Brady beats Rivers. The Pats topped the Chargers 21-13 yesterday, winning their fourth straight game to land atop the AFC East at the halfway mark yet again. And in this game, Tom Brady moved to 7-0 all-time against Philip Rivers, whose only win over the Pats is against Matt Cassel. Next up is the bye week, so smoke 'em if you got 'em.

This game looked worrisome at times, but in the end, the Chargers shot themselves in the foot more often than the Patriots did. Los Angeles missed a field goal, gave up a horrible safety on a botched punt return, wiped out their own touchdown on a penalty, didn't drive inside the Patriots 20 yard line the entire game, and mishandled the clock on their final drive with a chance to tie the game.

All the Patriots did was drop some passes and miss two field goals. So on balance, the less self-destructive team won. It looked a lot like a pre-bye week game for the Pats.

The good news on offense is that the Patriots attack is always better when they force defenders to protect against multiple receivers and types of runners. Here are the numbers for their top five receivers and top two runners yesterday.

Receivers:
Rex Burkhead = 7 catches for 68 yards
James White = 5 for 85
Chris Hogan = 5 for 60
Rob Gronkowski = 5 for 57
Brandin Cooks = 5 for 26
Runners:
Dion Lewis = 15 carries for 44 yards
Mike Gillislee = 11 carries for 34 yards

It wasn't perfect yesterday; there were multiple drops and QB Tom Brady was under far too much pressure for much of the game (three sacks and seven QB hits). But other teams will have a very tough time defending the Patriots if they continue to feature that kind of diversified attack. There's a reason the Pats held the ball almost 37 minutes -- the Chargers couldn't figure out how to get off the field.

On defense, the news was mixed but leaning toward the positive. They blew one play and it went for an 87-yard touchdown run. Aside from that, they got off the field on third downs (30% conversions by L.A.), and they held the Chargers to 57% completions on just 30 attempts. Outside contain is still a problem against the run, as is the inside defense when Malcom Brown isn't in there (he missed yesterday's game ).

But linebackers Elandon Roberts, Kyle Van Noy, and David Harris all played their best games of the year. And Johnson Bademosi is rounding into a good corner, which will help with depth once starters Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore return from injuries. Not saying the defense is about to become a juggernaut; but they held their last four opponents to 14, 17, 7, and 13 points.

There was a miscommunication between corner Malcolm Butler and safety Devin McCourty on a touchdown pass, so there is obviously there is work to do. And I still think the lack of talent at linebacker will come back to haunt them if they make the playoffs. But there are encouraging signs.

And then there is special teams. First the good news; Brandon King and Jonathan Jones combined on a tackle in the end zone that scored a safety. And Jones almost stole another punt when he pushed a Chargers blocker into his own man trying for a fair catch.

However, kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed two field goals, although they were well-rounded failures: each from 43 yards, each from a different hashmark, and each from a different end of the field. He visited the locker room in the middle of the first half, but there was no follow-up on that from the broadcast crew -- so we don't know if his problems were injury-related.

But I'll suggest for the umpteenth time that they replace the special teams coach with a real special teams coach. The current guy (Joe Judge) was promoted from within and he appears to be out of his depth in trying to get Gostkowski right again. None of his misses have cost the team this year. But things are magnified in the playoffs; lest we forget they lost an AFC Championship Game four seasons ago partially because Gostkowski missed an extra point.

The coaching was decent in this game. Josh McDaniels abandoned the run too quickly a few times in the game, but fortunately the Pats defense held the Chargers down and the Patriots got back to it. The runs went mostly up the middle, excellent game-planning to take away the outside rush. Just wish they'd stuck with it more consistently.

And linebackers coach Brian Flores (last year's Coach Of The Year, at least in this space) is doing a good job making a more cohesive unit out of new and returning players. It isn't perfect yet -- Cassius Marsh still needs help, he gave up the fourth-down scramble last week and this week the 87-yard touchdown was run outside to his contain this week. But if last year is any indication, the linebackers will be solid by year's end.

Also, take a bow whomever is coaching Bademosi; quite the out-of-nowhere story this season.

So where does that leave us? 6-2 and ahead in the entire AFC is a good place to be. Oh sure, the Chiefs are 6-2 and hold the tiebreaker, but stay calm -- Andy Reid is the coach in KC; he'll be at least a game behind the Patriots by the end of the season.

Non-Brady MVP: Running back Rex Burkhead gets it this week, for his complimentary game of running and catching the ball well.

Statistical Oddity: To start the season, the Patriots gave up 300+ yards passing to the first six passers they faced. Since then, they gave up less than 300 yards to Matt Ryan, last year's MVP, and Philip Rivers, currently 10th in all-time passing yardage in NFL history.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: The Patriots held L.A. to just 52 offensive plays, their lowest total of the season. That is becoming quite a habit with the Pats (hello Atlanta Falcons!). (Trivia question: Against one team this calendar year, the Patriots failed to run more offensive plays in two separate games, can you name the team?)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe the Pats will make a trade by Tuesday so we'll have something to talk about during the bye week."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-2!

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The Houston Texans tied for number of offensive plays in last year's playoffs (69-69) and ran more than the Patriots in their game earlier this season (71-64).

Monday, October 23, 2017

Patriots Outclass Falcons, 23-7

A funny thing happened on the way to 4-3, the Patriots detoured to 5-2 instead on the strength of a 23-7 beatdown of the Falcons at Gillette Stadium. The win put them atop the AFC East, a half-game ahead of the surprising Buffalo Bills (4-2). Next up is another surprise team, the 3-4 L.A. Chargers, who just shutout the Broncos 21-0.

Sunday night's game was easily the Patriots' best overall performance of the season. Their defense shut down the Atlanta offense for almost 56 minutes. The offense was diverse and efficient. And special teams was great in punt and kickoff coverage and even threw in a blocked field goal!

All three units were true team efforts, no single player really stood out over the unit play. Quarterback Tom Brady had a 121.2 rating, but only dropped back to pass 30 time. He ended up 21 of 29 for an efficient 249 yards and two touchdowns. The only throw that really stood out was his back-shoulder toss to Brandin Cooks; otherwise he simply carved up the Atlanta zone and waited out their man coverages.

The running backs split carries, with Deon Lewis carrying most of the load (13 rushes for 76 yards) and Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead dividing most of the other reps. Lewis and Burkhead impressed the most, the former with quick-hits and a great burst at the second level, and the latter for his speed to the hole and decent running for his first real plays of the season.

The receivers shared the load pretty evenly, as you can see from the receiving numbers: James White (5 catches), Chris Hogan (4), Cooks (4), Danny Amendola (3), and Rob Gronkowski (3) all contributed while none dominated. Although Gronkowski and Hogan get special mention for their blocking in the running attack.

And finally the offensive line started messy in pass protection but shored things up as the game wore on. They were very good run blocking, carving out enough room for 162 yards and a 4.5 average yards per carry. Nate Solder is still struggling, but the rest of the line looked very good, especially the interior.

All three levels of the defense were interesting to watch. The defensive line stuffed what is a good Falcons running attack, limiting them to 30 yards in the first half. Emerging star Trey Flowers continues to make impact plays (6 tackles and a huge penetration on the Falcons fourth-down at the goal line). And rookies Adam Butler and Deatrich Wise Jr. made good plays and held up well, while veteran Lawrence Guy gets better every week.

At linebacker, Cassius Marsh played better in pass coverage and Kyle Van Noy led the team in tackles (7); in fact, he made the tackle on the aforementioned fourth-down stuff at the goal line. If Dont'a Hightower can stay healthy, and Van Noy and Marsh continue to up their game every week, it's more and more likely the Patriots can do something in the playoffs without adding a linebacker via trade.

(Remember that last year I named linebackers coach Brian Flores the Coach of the Year. He molded his 2016 unit with mediocre talent and into a strength by year's end. If he can do that again, he should get serious consideration around the league for a defensive coordinator position this off-season.)

But the secondary might be most interesting of all. Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore were out with injuries, so Malcolm Butler and Johnson Bademosi had to step up against much bigger receivers. And they did! With an assist from safety Patrick Chung, they slowed down the Falcons and made big plays on third- and fourth-downs to stop drives before they got started. Bademosi and Butler were also among the team leaders in tackles, with seven and six, respectively.

When you consider that Jonathan Jones was their second-best corner to start the season, this unit could be a real strength when Rowe and Gilmore return. In fact, Gilmore could find himself riding the pine if he isn't careful, even though he is the highest-paid player on the team.

On special teams, Marsh blocked a field goal, making up for his lost outside contain on fourth-and-eight a few plays earlier. Jones had a great rush another field goal attempt, which might have influenced the kicker to hurry... and the kick doinked off the upright and was no-good. Stephen Gostkowski's kickoffs were great, as was the coverage.

The only downer was a Ryan Allen long punt that bounced into the end zone instead of checking up inside the ten yard line. But his other kicks were high enough to force fair catches by Atlanta.

The game was a coaching mismatch, but mostly because Atlanta stunk up the joint. Going for a fourth-down late in the first half was foolish, as was the slow-developing "jet sweep" called near the goal line (it was stuffed for a five-yard loss). But it wasn't just bad coaching by the Falcons; the Patriots had a great plan to stuff the run game and on offense they mixed pass and very effectively.

So where does that leave us? 5-2 is not a bad place to be, especially when you have only two convincing wins (New Orleans and Atlanta) and could easily be 2-5 or 3-4. This week will be an interesting match up, as the Chargers have the talent and some new life of late to give the Pats trouble.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Trey Flowers, for anchoring the defensive line and making plays that didn't show up on the stat sheet but were crucial to shutting out the Falcons for almost the entire game.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Both of the winless teams this season have winning records against the Patriots all-time. San Francisco and Cleveland are both 0-7 this year, but the 49ers are 8-5 all time against the Patriots and the Browns are 12-11. (Trivia question: Can you name the only NFL team that has never beaten the Patriots? Answer below.)

Bonus Statistical Oddity: In Super Bowl LI, the Falcons last scored at about 8:30pm Eastern Standard Time. Last night they first scored at 11:15pm EST. So after they took a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, they went 80:20 of game time -- or 261+ days, or 6,266.75 hours -- before scoring again.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Pats played a great game; they would have beaten just about anyone last night."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-2!

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The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-7 all-time against the Patriots.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Patriots Outlast Jets 24-17

The Patriots used the mid-game to build a two score lead and held on for a 24-17 win over the Jets in New Jersey. The win put the Pats in first place, a half-game ahead of the 3-2 Bills (who are on a bye). Next up is a Super Bowl rematch against the Falcons at Gillette stadium next Sunday night.

Given my recent absence, I'll try to cover as much as I can from the past few weeks and this game. But suffice it to say there were some signs of progress this week.

For the first time in a while the Patriots defense made good adjustments during the game to shut down an offense that was gashing them. They did the same against Houston, then almost gave the game away late. Yesterday they adjusted and held the Jets to three points on their last eight drives.

The secondary got burned early but came back to clamp down on receivers in the second and third quarters. And this was without big-money free agent Stephon Gilmore or Eric Rowe (insert Nickelback joke here), both out with injuries. Malcolm Butler and Johnson Bademosi weren't perfect, but they mostly improved as the game progressed.

(Although they were helped by New York's curious decision to attack Butler instead of journeyman Bademosi, whom they left alone for most of the day. Perhaps the Patriots kept safety help to Bademosi's side. Not that you'd know it from the broadcast, they didn't have a single illuminating replay the entire game.)

In the first five weeks of the season, New York averaged 111.5 yards per game rushing and 4.5 yards per carry. But Matt Patricia's defense held them to 74 and 3.1 respectively. Good tackling technique and gap control led to five short-yardage stuffs in the last 45 minutes of the game, three of them giving the ball back to the Patriots.

Penalties were down for a change. The Patriots had 12 accepted penalties against Tampa Bay, and they are among the league leaders in most penalties. However, they had just six accepted flags against the Jets. And they didn't have those stupid penalties we'd seen the first quarter of the season: back-to-back roughing the passer calls, back-to-back running into the kicker calls, and calls for too many men on the field or lining up incorrectly. I'm hopeful this is the start of a trend where they get back to disciplined football and don't beat themselves.

The offensive rhythm looked a lot better, with Brady throwing "on time" more often and hitting receivers in stride so they could do damage after the catch. He wasn't perfect, perhaps owing to his left shoulder injury. But he made the plays necessary to keep the team moving and score points. (And between us, a few of his under thrown passes were due to being hit, but don't tell anyone else.)

Brady was protected better in this game. But I can't chalk that up to the O-line; it looked like they were chipping the outside rush with backs and tight ends. That's the wise thing to do, but it doesn't speak to much progress of the O-line, though they were a bit better this week, especially in the running game.

Rob Gronkowski is still a difference-maker, and as I've noted before, he is vastly more effective when the team runs the ball well. The team wouldn't have won without his two touchdowns. And Brandon Cooks looks to be completely in-sync with Brady, as is Chris Hogan. But Phillip Dorsett looks totally useless; he doesn't even fight for the ball when it's about to be intercepted.

One downside from the game was another field goal missed by Stephen Gostkowski (47 yards). His defenders say he is one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history. But he is not clutch, and he can't be counted on in a big spot. And I reiterate my suggestion from last year: bring in a real special teams coach. Gostkowski thrived under Scott O'Brien, who was a long-time ST coach. Current coach Joe Judge might be in over his head trying to figure out what ails Gostkowski.

So where does that leave us? All in all a good win, but still plenty of room for improvement. 4-2 is not a bad spot to be, especially when you could easily be 2-4. Next week against Atlanta could be a big problem if Gilmore isn't healthy.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: The running game was key this week, so it goes to Deon Lewis, who played a lot more because Mike Gillislee fumbled and was benched for a while.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots offensive has notched an impressive 106.9 passer rating. But their defense has allowed a dreadful 104.4 passer rating. (Trivia question: name the year and the team that gave up the highest defensive passer rating in an NFL season... answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The games against Atlanta, Denver, and Oakland will tell the us a lot more than the Jets game."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-2!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The 2014 New Orleans Saints allowed a defensive passer rating of 116.2. That's even worse than the 2008 Lions, who went 0-16... blech!