This game couldn't have been more even, with two teams delivering offensive and defensive haymakers play after play. It came down the little things, so here's a list of what made the difference:
1. Tom Brady outplayed Drew Brees by a narrow but important margin. Brady spread the ball around, rarely throwing to covered receivers and taking sacks instead of risking interceptions. Brees' completions were top-heavy: 12 combined catches by 3 receivers, and 1 reception each by 5 other receivers. And he continually threw the ball to well-covered tight end Jimmy Graham, and Graham ended the day with as many catches as injured Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski -- zero.
It's one of the reasons Brady completed 58% of his passes, while Brees only completed 47%. In crucial moments, Brees made mistakes (bad reads, timeouts, and a terrible decision on his interception). Brady made only one big mistake all day, an interception that was a bad throw to -- you guessed it -- a receiver who was breaking open.
2. The Saints field the second-worst run defense in the NFL, and the Patriots exploited it for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns. But while the Saints blitz was pressuring Brady all day, they used it sparingly, which gave Brady time to pick them apart. So the Patriots took advantage while the Saints did not.
3. Meanwhile on defense, the Patriots best cover corner (Aqib Talib) went out in the third quarter, and the Saints failed to attack his replacements. Instead, they stubbornly went after their second-best corner, Alfonzo Dennard. When the Saints saw safety Devin McCourty covering receivers, they should have drawn up plays to attack him. Instead they went after Dennard, and missed opportunities to put the game away.
4. Aside from the lack of blitzing, the Saints offense went very conservative once they had a lead in the fourth quarter. After they went up 24-23, they ran the ball five times, threw one incompletion, and kicked a field goal. That is unusual for head coach Sean Payton, and it did not help his cause.
The Patriots were the exact opposite. After the Saints went up 24-23, they went for it on fourth-and-six, threw long passes down the field (one of which was intercepted), and run-blitzed to stop the Saints from getting first downs.
Even on special teams, the Patriots were the aggressors. They tried a trick-return on the first New Orleans punt of the day. It failed, but set the tone that half-measures would not cut it. They also had kicker Stephen Gostkowski try a 54-yard field goal at the end of the half, which was good and is a career high for him.
5. The Patriots held firm with "next man up" in this game. Gronkowski didn't play but his replacement, Michael Hoomanawanui grabbed 4 catches for 57 yards. Receiver Danny Amendola left the game with and injury, and Julian Edelman and new signee Austin Collie torched the Saints on game-winning drive. Corner Aqib Talib left with an injury and his replacements continued to shut down receivers for no big plays (except for the one touchdown). Linebacker Jerod Mayo left the game late, but the Saints never couldn't run the ball with three of the Patriots best run defenders in the locker room (including Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly).
No team wins with replacements at key positions like the Patriots. And that habit served them well yesterday. They had all the excuses in the world if they lost; but they never took the bait. And the Saints paid the price for it.
6. The Patriots won the turnover battle because they had no fumbles and because Brees threw a jump-ball interception toward Graham. They also won the penalty battle, committing only 4 for 33 yards while the Saints committed 7 for 56 yards, and they had more first downs: 26 to 20. The Patriots prevailed in time of possession: 31:51 to 28:09. Even their punter outperformed his counterpart on New Orleans, 52.5 to 44.7.
Again, the little things. The Saints probably win the game if they can turn just one of those failings into an advantage.
7. In the second half, the Saints squandered their timeouts, the Patriots saved theirs. New Orleans called two timeouts on offense, and came up empty on the plays run after each timeout; that is what we called a wasted timeout.
The Patriots not only had all three timeouts to give themselves a chance to get the ball back, but New Orleans threw a late incompletion that allowed the Patriots to bank their last timeout for the final Saints' possession. Without that last critical mistake, the final Patriots drive would have started with 40 fewer seconds on the clock, leaving Brady just 33 seconds to go 70 yards for a touchdown with no timeouts. That would have been ball game.
But the Saints failed to manage the game situation properly, opening the door for Brady to eke out the win.
So where does that leave us? 5-1 is pretty good, a game better than even I thought they'd be at this point. The Jets lost again on Sunday, and the Pats can effectively end New York's chances at a division title with a victory this week. A Patriots win would put the Jets 4 games behind (including tie-breakers), just 7 weeks into the season. So the Patriots should be ready to roll in this one; if only to keep control of their division lead.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: Gostkowski's career-long 54-yard field goal was the 9th 50+ yard field goal of his career, setting a new franchise record for number of field goals of 50+ yards. (Trivia question: can you name the previous record-holder in this category, a man who had 8 such kicks -- answer below.)
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Win or lose, that was a great game. But always better to win."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 5-1!
PPS. Trivia answer:
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The obvious answer is the right one here; Adam Vinatieri had 8 field goals of 50+ yards in his Patriots career.
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