As with the last two games, there just wasn't a lot to learn in this one. The Patriots controlled the game from the start, and if not for two turnovers, it would have been a complete laugher, just like the wins over Denver and Oakland. But there were some interesting wrinkles in this one, so here goes...
The running backs have gone from a five-headed monster to just two heads: Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead. Lewis ran for 112 yards, Burkhead for 50, and the rest of the RBs had 13 total. And it's the third week in a row. Against the Raiders it was Lewis/Burkhead 66 yards, James White 13, and versus the Broncos it was Lewis/Burkhead 91, White 7.
Given that the ratio holds in the passing game, too, it appears they have settled on a rotation. The big question is Lewis' health. He's had only one injury with the Patriots, but it was a huge one; an ACL tear that cost him an entire year. He is smaller, so it probably makes sense to spell him with James White to keep him healthy and fresh for the stretch run.
Speaking of White, the team did something interesting with him this week. When he was assigned blitz pickup, he moved up three yards so he could take on defenders before they got a running start. White struggled picking up the pass rush against Oakland, so this probably makes sense. However, it means he can't be used as a runner out of the shotgun, which limits his effectiveness. I'll keep an eye on that the next few weeks; it's a crutch he's never needed before, and it makes him more one-dimensional.
As for the offense in general, apparently Miami defensive end Ndamukong Suh is right; the only way to get Tom Brady to make mistakes is to hit him, a lot. He was sacked once and hit eight other times, and he did make some mistakes (a bad interception, over and under throwing players a few times). Although in fairness, he made some great throws into tight coverage, especially near the goal line (one reason he ended up with four TDs).
Brady was hit so many times mostly because the offensive line didn't hold up particularly well. Yesterday they lost LaAdrian Waddle to injury (and he himself was playing because of an injury to another starter), and on the next play Cameron Fleming gave up a sack that forced a punt. Replacement center Ted Karras snapped the ball early, resulting in a fumble return for touchdown by Miami.
Usually offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia can make almost any situation work. But it appears there is a limit to magic; and perhaps three missing starters is just too much to bear. Especially when left tackle Nate Solder is having a down year, although he played better yesterday.
In the defensive secondary, the Pats employed an interesting twist; they had their third corner, Jonathan Jones, cover the Dolphins #1 receiver with safety help. Jones followed Jarvis Landry around all day, mostly tackling him after catches, which is one reason he led the team with nine tackles.
Historically, this strategy has involved having the #2 corner cover the other team's best receiver with safety help. So this appears to be either a shot at #2 corner Malcolm Butler, an acknowledgement that Landry just isn't that dangerous (or that his QB isn't), or an expression of confidence that they can slow down #1 receivers with even their third corner. Whatever the case, it was interesting to watch that defense deployed.
At linebacker, Elandon Roberts looks bigger than last year but plays just as fast. When he guesses pass/run correctly, he can be a real force. But when he is wrong, or when he chooses the wrong place to help, he looks completely lost. Yesterday he looked great: 4 tackles, 2 sacks, and 2 QB hits.
The biggest problem at linebacker is the team literally has no one who is even above average in pass coverage. Longtime Jets linebacker David Harris has played better lately, but he's good against the run and junk in coverage. Same goes for Kyle Van Noy (well... he's a little better in pass coverage, as long as it's a pretty short pass).
The only team that can exploit this weakness for the remainder of the regular season is the Steelers, and there's no guarantee they will bother -- they like to establish the run, while the Patriots get out to a 14- or 21-point lead. It's just what they do.
The point is, the Patriots are likely to end up with a great record and good playoff positioning. But once they get to the post-season, there will be multiple teams that can exploit poor pass coverage by linebackers. So we might not know if they are vulnerable until it's too late. Stay tuned; I'll do my best to watch for signs of improvement here.
So where does that leave us? Riding high at 9-2, and rooting for a Green Bay victory over Pittsburgh tonight that would put us atop the AFC alone. Next week in Buffalo would look like a tough game on the face of it. But historically the Patriots have played Buffalo tougher there than at Gillette Stadium. So expect a close game early that turns in the Patriots favor after the half.
Non-Brady MVP: Trey Flowers, who notched 2 sacks (for 16 yards), 2 QB hits, and 4 tackles. Same statline as Roberts, but he was more consistent throughout the game. (I almost gave it to Stephon Gilmore, but he let Duron Harmon take his second interception, so he only got credit for one.)
Statistical Oddity: For the third straight year, the Patriots have more than one player with a quarterback rating of over the century mark: Brady is at 111.7 and Brian Hoyer is at 118.1. The previous two years it was Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo. (Trivia question: prior to 2015, can you name the last year that the Pats could make this boast, and which players were involved? Answer below.)
Water-cooler Wisdom: "Honestly, what would big mouth Ndamukong Suh know about beating Tom Brady? He's 1-6 against him all-time."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 9-2!
PPS. Trivia Answer:
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In 2011, both Tom Brady (105.6) and Brian Hoyer (118.7) topped 100 in QB rating for the Patriots. Ironical, isn't it :)
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In 2011, both Tom Brady (105.6) and Brian Hoyer (118.7) topped 100 in QB rating for the Patriots. Ironical, isn't it :)
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