Before I leave that game for good though, there is one thing that should worry the rest of the NFL. The Patriots barely tried and blew out the Falcons 25-0. And what I mean by "barely tried" is that it appeared they game planned to take away rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, kept their offense very, very conservative, and waited for Atlanta to implode.
Check, check, and check. No real in-game adjustments, just kickoff the ball and let's win it on talent and in-game coaching. If the Pats are good enough to take any NFL team that lightly, especially on a short week on the road, then they are a pretty confident bunch. And they wouldn't be that confident unless the man at the top, Bill Belichick believed in them. *That* should scare the rest of the league.
So where does the team stand now, a little over halfway through the season? Well, first place in the AFC East isn't bad given that they were literally two games behind five weeks ago. Since their 2-4 start, the Patriots reeled off five straight wins to stand at 7-4. Conversely the Bills started 4-2 and have gone 2-2 since then to post a 6-4 record.
I had the Patriots slated for an 8-3 start, and honestly, one win short of my prediction isn't nearly as bad as it could have been. Five-plus weeks ago I said they should sell at the trade deadline if they lost either of their next two games. But they won both and three more in a row.
How have they made this sudden turnaround? Two reasons: the offense has built chemistry, and they switched up the defense to better use their personnel.
On offense, here are three scoring averages over the first part of the year:
- First four games = 17.8 ppg
- Next two games = 27.0 ppg
- Last five games = 35.0 ppg
Offense takes longer to gel than defense does, especially the New England offense. It depends on timing, pinpoint coordination on their many screens and gadget plays, and chemistry between the quarterback and receivers. The running game is simpler, though the Patriots have run a lot of inside trap plays, which also take timing and coordination
On defense, the Patriots made a change that turned their season around. They gave up 35 points in an overtime loss to Dallas, and in that game cornerback Jonathan Jones sustained a season-ending shoulder injury.
With their season teetering on the edge of ruin and a depleted secondary (already missing traded corner Stephon Gilmore), they switched from playing mostly man defense to playing mostly zone defense. And the results have been stark.
At least two opposing quarterbacks said they were confused because the Patriots played almost exclusively man-defense since 2018. And the average points dropped significantly:
- First six games = 21.2 ppg
- Last five games = 10.0 ppg
A lot of media outlets have said the last five games were against worse competition. But remember, those first six games included the awful Dolphins, Jets, and Texans.
This wasn't about bad competition or teams missing their offensive weapons. It was about offensive cohesion and better using the players they have on defense. What was the result?
In 2021, the Patriots lead the NFL in scoring differential, having scored 123 more points than they've given up. Under Bill Belichick they finished first in that category seven other times. Six of those years they went to the AFC Championship Game, five times they made it to the Super Bowl, and three times they won it all. (Trivia question: name the season they finished #1 in scoring differential but didn't make the conference final. Answer below.)
Just sayin', not predictin'.
What we see mostly with the Pats in 2021 is balance. A short passing game and a tough running attack that controls the ball and moves the chains. They've converted 45.8% of their third-downs, good for fifth-best in the league. And they've allowed just 35.5% conversions on defense, sixth-best in the NFL. Where have I heard "good situational football" before? Hmmmm... let me think about that :)
Quarterback Mac Jones has steadily improved through the year. He had 5 TDs and 5 INTs in the first five games, and 9 TDs and 3 INTs the last six contests. He audibles into the right play more often and had only had two or three bad decisions in the last few games.
It helps that he hasn't been getting knocked around as much. The offensive line solidified when Michael Onwenu was inserted into the lineup, and played even better when anchor tackle Trent Brown returned two weeks ago.
And those line changes have opened up a punishing running game, with Damien Harris the featured back, rookie Rhomondre Stevenson the hammer back, and veteran special teamer Brandon Bolden taking the James White spread-formation role after White was lost for the season with a hip injury.
As for the receivers, Jakobi Meyers is the clutch guy on third-down, Kendrick Bourne is the deep threat, and tight end Hunter Henry is an excellent red zone option. Henry has seven TDs on the season, the same number as all the wide receivers combined!
The defense can blitz from the outside or inside, holds the edge against the run, can play man, zone, or combinations, disguises extremely well pre-snap, and they are very opportunistic when it comes to errant throws or causing fumbles. Their 21 forced turnovers is third-best in the league.
Free agent signee linebacker Matthew Judon is perfect for this defense. He can speed rush, bull rush, holds up at the point of attack, can drop into coverage, and has an edge and an attitude needed to bring his teammates play up to his standards.
Along the defensive line, rookie defensive end Christian Barmore looks like a draft steal, and the longer the season goes the better he plays. He blows up plays as often as Judon and occupies blockers so they can't get to the linebackers. Same can be said of former Dolphins free agent Devon Godchaux, and together the two of them make a formidable pair inside.
Veteran linebackers Dont'a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy both started off slow but have picked things up of late. And Ja'Whaun Bentley is having his best year as a Patriots player, obviously benefitting from having great players around him.
Cornerback JC Jackson continues his march toward a huge free agent payday, leading the team with six interceptions and leading the NFL with 23 since he entered the league. Jalen Mills hasn't been anything special, but Myles Bryant and Joejuan Williams have been serviceable filling in for Jones.
Maybe the biggest surprise was the leap in production from second-year safety Kyle Duggar, who leads the team in tackles and has three timely interceptions. Along with former Chargers safety Adrian Phillips and veteran Devin McCourty, the team has so much flexibility with their defensive backfield it's no wonder opposing quarterbacks get confused.
2021 really has been a year of "next man up." Based on previous seasons, no one would have expected significant contributions from Bolden, Meyers, Bentley, Williams, or Bryant. But with better talent around them and first-team reps in practice and on Sundays, each have grown into their roles remarkably well.
Remember: James White was a scrub playing behind Dion Lewis until Lewis got hurt (and eventually left) -- it was only when White got time with Brady and the offense that he became one of the best third-down backs of all time (Belichick's words, not mine).
Two more areas to cover quickly, first is special teams. Nick Folk has had a real rebirth here. After making just 54.5% of his field goals in 2017, he was on the street looking for work in 2018. Since signing here, he's made 66 of 73 FGs for a 90.4% success rate. And his two misses this year were a 56 yarder in the rain and a 54 yarder at the end of a blowout win in Carolina. Jake Bailey appears to be nursing an injury as his kickoffs haven't been as deep or well directed. And frankly the team has too many special teams penalties for my taste.
Those who compare this team to the 2001 Patriots miss the fact that the earlier version has bulletproof special teams. Never a misstep, solid coverage and blocking, and they created turnovers and points. It's a pretty big difference if you ask me.
Lastly, the coaching was shaky to start the year but has gotten much better of late. I noted a few times early on that OC Josh McDaniels wasn't adjusting quickly enough or getting the team off to a good start. That improved as Mac Jones' grasp of the offense and chemistry with teammates has.
As for the defensive coaching, I agree with a lot of the media speculation that Belichick himself has taken over that side of the ball. The loss to Dallas saw too many yards and points given up and very poor play situationally.
And the team still has some hiccups that I would put on overall coaching. Fumbles, false starts, timeouts coming out of TV timeouts, too many men on the field (or maybe too few), poor decisions on replay challenges, and overuse of trick plays. Those areas have gotten better but still aren't up to expectations for a Belichick team.
So where does that leave us? This Sunday's game with Tennessee has huge playoff implications. The absence of Titans running back Derek Henry makes them much easier to defend, which is advantage Patriots. The Pats "D" thrives on one-dimensional offenses. If the team wins, they will have the tie-breaker so they could potentially be in the #1 or #2 AFC playoff spot by end of day.
No on-going concern listed -- just wrote an entire entry about how things are going :D
Statistical oddity of the first 11 games: 2020-2021 marks the first back-to-back seasons a Belichick-coached Patriots team had a losing record against the NFC. Despite an overall 74% winning rate against the other conference, last year they went 1-3, this year 2-3.
In 22 seasons here, Belichick has had only four seasons under .500 against the NFC, two of them the last two years.
Water-cooler wisdom: "Raise your hand if you had the Patriots leading the division after 11 games." (Note: I would raise my hand to that... #humblebrag.)
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 7-4!
PPS. Trivia answer: The Pats finished #1 in scoring differential in 2010 but lost to Mark Sanchez and the Jets in their first playoff game. Boooooo!
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