Patriots 20, Dolphins 10 (10/8/2006)

On a day that started with me scraping ice off my windshield and ended with me getting a sunburn, the Patriots played a hot-and-cold game and came away with a 20-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. The win brings them into the bye week at 4-1, with a two-game lead in the division and victories over every other AFC East foe.

At the end of the game, a lot of the statistics looked even, but the Pats cashed in all three turnovers for 17 of their 20 points. Miami had an 80 yard touchdown drive but didn’t have another drive of more than 50 yards. And if you don’t get turnovers and can’t drive a long field, it’s going to be a long day.

The player of the game was Asante Samuel, who had two interceptions that set up fourteen easy points and six solo tackles to tie Chad Scott for the team lead. With Ellis Hobbs mostly MIA and Eugene Wilson out again, the secondary played pretty well, with Rodney Harrison forcing a fumble and continuing his improvement from last year’s injured knee.

But the story of the defense was the defensive line. They used a rotation system to keep the players fresh on a hot day, and they just dominated. When he was on the field, Vince Wilfork had a Pro Bowl level game, blowing up just about every running play before it even started making an unusually high six tackles from the nose guard position. Ty Warren and Richard Seymour continued to play excellent gap control; Jarvis Green got another sack (he now leads the team with 4.5 on the year) and Mike Wright even pitched in to keep the pressure on while his teammates rested. They notched only the one sack, but the line pressured the QB enough to force quick throws for short gains (allowing only 5.3 yards per pass play).

The linebackers did well, with Bruschi’s ten total tackles leading the team. They rotated linebackers, too, which gave Don Davis and Eric Alexander more snaps. But I expected more from Rosevelt Colvin and Junior Seau. It might have been the quick passing of the Dolphins, but both of them seems a step slow at times. Fortunately for the Patriots, the Dolphins are still the Dolphins, with some dropped passes, some penalties, and a poor offensive game plan.

The offense… ummmm, they didn’t pass the ball well or run the ball well… but aside from that everything was fine. Troy Brown was the best receiver on this day, with 5 catches for 58 yards and an important touchdown. Ben Watson turned a 4-yard catch into a 9-yard gain on third-and-eight, and he had two crucial catches as the Pats were winding down the clock. And that was about it in the passing game. Brady missed some receivers high or low, and a bunch of his passes were knocked down at the line (I counted six). His weekly injury status of “Probable – shoulder injury” might not be subterfuge after all; I suspect he might have just such an injury.

Now, if the Patriots want to save Brady the trouble of throwing all the time, they have to run the ball better. They had only 79 yards on 34 carries, and rookie Laurence Maroney looked like a rookie this week. At least Corey Dillon (10 rushes for 45 yards) could make a few yards when the running lanes were clogged; Maroney averaged only 2.1 yards a carry and didn’t have a catch all day. Miami does have a good running defense; but the Patriots O-line didn’t open nearly enough holes or get a decent push off the ball. All-in-all, a day to forget.

But even with the offensive problems, they took advantage of the short field when the defense got turnovers. Their scoring drives averaged 30 yards, with three coming after Dolphin turnovers. And that was good enough to win by 10 points.

The special teams were also hot-and-cold. They blocked an Olindo Mare field goal attempt and tackled the punter with the ball later in the game. But Kevin Faulk gave Miami their only turnover when he fumbled a punt late in the game Then again, rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski didn’t miss any field goals this week. That’s progress, right?

So where does all that leave us. Well, the Pats are on their way to their fourth straight division crown. They are tied for the third-best record in the NFL (tied with five other teams, sure, but still tied) in a division where every other team is below .500. They’ve got a bye week and then their toughest stretch of the season, with road games in Buffalo and Minnesota and then a home game against Indy (why, oh why, do the Colts always seem to play us here?). So things are looking bright and sunny for the time being. I'll write up some mid-season observations for next week, and then we'll see how they do coming out of the bye week.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Tell me again why the Dolphins were supposed to be Super Bowl bound. They beat five cupcake teams to end last season, and they have a new QB and a new offensive system for the third straight year. I mean, they lost to Cleveland 22-0 last year… how could anyone think they were good?”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-1!

Patriots 38, Bengals 13 (10/1/2006)

They just don't lose two games in a row... they just don't. The Patriots vanquished the latest pretenders to the thrown, casting the Bengals out of the penthouse suite to sleep with the fishes after a 38-13 trouncing that left even big-mouth bass Chad Johnson speechless. Coupled with the Jets loss to Indy, the win propelled the Pats into the AFC East lead all alone, and re-cemented their status as one of the great bounceback teams in NFL history. They have now played 53 games without losing two in a row -- the second-longest post-merger streak in the league.

There were many keys to this game; but without the defense, it could have gotten out of hand before it really started. The Patriots offense struggled early on, and in the meantime, the Bengals drove down the field with seeming ease the entire first quarter. But when they got close, the Pats defense stiffened and held them to two field goals, making it a 6-0 game instead of a 10-0 or 14-0 game. The six-point deficit allowed the Patriots to hammer away with the running game, and that gave them control of the ball, the clock, and ultimate, the football game. 226 yards rushing was their highest total in over a decade, and it exposed Cincinnati's weak run defense like no other game has.

The Pats offense started and ended with rookie Laurence Maroney and the running game. Maroney ran for 125 yards on only 15 carries (a stellar 8.3 yards per rush), stiff-arming, plowing, and sprinting his way to two touchdowns. Corey Dillon contributed 67 tough yards and a touchdown of his own. Heck, Tom Brady even ran for a career high 22 yards on one of his carries. The blocking was superb, with Daniel Graham and Ben Watson sealing off defenders and the running backs hammering defensive backs trying to fill the holes. They even ran behind the rookie who replaced a rookie at right tackle (Wesley Britt, who replaced the injured Ryan O'Callaghan), with no drop-off in production.

The running game allowed the Pats to build advantages in time of possession (33:56 to 26:04), rushing yards (236 to 71), third-down conversions (6-13 to 2-11), total plays (67 to 56), and yards per play (6.3 to 5.0). And as is always the case, the good running game was the quarterback's best friend. Tom Brady posted season highs in completion percentage (57.7), and QB rating (89.9), and his only interception was on a tipped ball, and it led to zero Cincinnati points. The receivers also played better, making crisper cuts on the artificial turf and dropping very few catchable balls. Doug Gabriel seems to be developing some chemistry with Brady; and rookie Chad Jackson even contributed. Nothing spectactular; but who needed it with the defense playing so well and Maroney controlling the clock.

And oh that defense... what a performance it was. They kept switching things up on the Bengals, going from the 3-4, to the 4-3, to the 4-2-5, and even the 4-2-4-1 (that's four defensive linemen, two linebackers, four defensive backs, and one Troy Brown). The defensive backs jumped routes and jammed receivers to break down the timing of the passing game. And that gave the D-line and linebackers enough hesitation to sack Carson Palmer four times, and cause two Palmer fumbles, both recovered by the Patriots. Jarvis Green had three sacks and Ty Warren had the fourth, and each man recovered the fumble he caused. The D-line dominated at the point of attack, pushing the Bengals offensive line into their own backfield to stop the run and knifing through any cracks in the pass protection.

Overall, it was a brilliant game plan, designed to stop the big play and force the Bengals to work the ball down the field patiently (which they rarely did). Chad Scott played over and above what I thought his abilities were, and with five DBs, they had the Bengals panicking once they fell behind. Now, I'm the first to admit that the Patriots were aided and abetted by Cincinnati's poor play-calling. With the game still close in the third quarter, the Bengals gained eight yards on first down and then threw twice (both incomplete) on second- and third-and-two, before punting from the Patriots 43. That series was just fine with me, but I'm rooting for the other side.

And I give the Patriots offensive and defensive coaching staffs a lot of credit. They stayed with the run even when they fell behind early, and that decision allowed them to dominate the clock and keep the Bengal offense on the sideline. And once the Cincy offense did step on the field, there were a lot of covered receivers and a shell-shocked QB who didn't have a clue how to attack a defense he'd never seen and likely never will again. It's a Patriots trademark by now. Give them something they've never seen, and they will have to think instead of playing -- and that's when you have them right where you want them.

The local 11 also had a significant advantage in special teams play. Cincinnati's best field position to start a drive was their own 40 yard line. The Patriots started four drives with better field position (two on turnovers, two on kick returns). The Bengals had only 7 punt return yards, while the Patriots had 43. And rookie Stephen Gostkowski continues to pin 'em deep, with four touchbacks on kick-offs. However, I am concerned with the field goal kicking; Gostkowski missed another one this week, wide-right -- way-right, Mike Vanderjagt-right -- from 48 yards. That's no gimmie; but he needs to get his house in order or people will definitely start giving the team a hard time about letting Adam Vinatieri go.

So where does that leave us. Well, as noted earlier, the Pats lead the AFC East at 3-1, and at that rate, they'll end up 12-4 for the year and win the division easily. Their next opponent, the Miami Dolphins, was supposed to challenge them for the division crown; but at 1-3, the 'Phins look like no threat at all. They've got an immobile QB going against a Patriots defense ranked in the top 10 in sacks. Doesn't look good for Miami, especially playing in Foxoboro.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Pats should beat the reeling Dolphins at home next week. Then they've got a bye and two winnable road games (both Buffalo and Minnesota play on artificial turf, and Brady is 17-1 on that surface). That means they could enter the Indy game with a 6-1 record, and it could be one of those showdown games in Foxboro again. Man, I'm almost *glad* the Red Sox got eliminated... well, not really."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 3-1!

Patriots 7, Broncos 17 (9/24/2006)

"Patriots offense fall down and go 'boom!'" Sorry if I've taken any action over my lifetime that made you more likely to watch that poor excuse for a football game. The Broncos scored plenty to keep an inept New England offense at bay, and notched a 17-7 win over the hometown 11. The loss dropped the Pats to 2-1 and into a first-place tie with the NY Jets, and with a tough game against the 3-0 Cincinnati Bengals next Sunday, it might be difficult to maintain that first-place status. More on that later.

The Pats actually played well in two of the three phases of the game. The punting unit often pinned the Broncos deep, and allowed minus-3 yards on 3 punt returns while gaining 32 yards on their own 3 returns. The kickoff stats were closer, but the Pats gave up a big return late in the game and had a field goal blocked in the first half (Stephen Gostkowski's plant foot slipped). On balance, the kicking advantage went to the Pats; but the Broncos made plays when they had to.

And the Patriots defense was sorely tested all night, with the offense unable to move the ball for nearly three quarters. They gave up scores on only three of eleven drives, slowing the run just enough to make the Broncos pass, and then frustrating Jake Plummer just enough to hold them to 17 points. Sadly, it was the first time in Brady's NFL career he'd lost a game as a starter when his defense held the opposition to 17 points or less (he is now 50-1). In fact, the defense has been a model of consistency, giving up exactly 17 points in each game this year. Most times, that's enough to win, but the Pats offense is a work-in-progress, and they didn't have nearly enough to pull it out this time.

The offense was anemic, making only 4 of 16 third-down conversions and rushing for a mere 50 yards. Heck, they had more penalty yards than that. Trying to work in a new receiving corps during the year is taking it's toll, and the margin for error is so thin that the pressure on Brady to hit every open receiver is immense. With Ben Watson and Troy Brown getting most of the defensive attention, Daniel Graham and Doug Gabriel have to step up their games. Gabriel finished the game with six catches, but he was shut out in the first three quarters. Oh, and it would be nice if the 36th pick in the draft (Chad Jackson) could get on the field. Maybe it's time to bring preseason standout Bam Childress off the practice squad.

I also have a few suggestions for the offensive coaching staff. Guys, when I can correctly predict if the Pats are about to run or pass, the play calling needs more imagination. That predictability, coupled with a receiving corps under construction, allowed the Broncos to load up against the run and cover the pass on the fly. Under that scenario, the passing game should have destroyed Denver; but it still looked bad. Do some self-scouting and figure out how to break your patterns, or you might be outta here at season's end.

The defense is improving week-to-week. Better tackling and pass defense this week; but some inopportune run blitzes that backfired and a pass rush that got there a fraction too late about half the time. On Denver's 83-yard touchdown pass, Richard Seymour was a milli-second late to Plummer and the coverage was a half-step late to Jevon Walker; and it cost them seven points and sealed the game for Denver.

The only players I thought played well the entire game were Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, and (surprisingly) Junior Seau. If Seau continues to improve at this pace, the Pats front seven will be the best in football by year's end. Asante Samuel played well most of the time, as did Mike Vrabel and Ellis Hobbs. On the minus side, James Sanders is not an adequate starter -- I'd rather see Tebucky Jones out there. And they gave up over five yards per rush, which will lose you the game 49 out of 50 times. With all the talent on the defensive line, I'd like to see them switch between the 3-4 and 4-3 multiple times a game, just to keep the other team off balance.

And with all due respect, Bill Belichick should hire a former NFL coach to break down every game he's ever coached against Mike Shannahan. Have someone make a database of all those games with tendencies, areas that each play attacked, how the game plan changed from year to year, and which schemes frustrated Shannahan's offense. The Pats built their great teams to take a lead and pounce on teams when they tried extra hard to come back. But he's 2-5 against the Broncos, and in four of those five losses, the Broncos held the lead at the half. Something should change the next time they play.

So where does that leave us. The Patriots best hope for a win at 3-0 Cincinnati is that the Bengals are emotionally drained by last week's division game against the Steelers. Cincy has surrendered some sacks and their run defense is suspect, but their offense gives the Patriots fits and their defense will have an easy day unless the Pats offense can turn it around. The other thing to remember is that rarely does a Belichick-coached team lose two in a row. Doesn't that give you hope? Yeah, me neither.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If things go according to form, the entire AFC East could be 2-2 by next Sunday. The 2-1 Pats and Jets have tough games against Cincy and Indianapolis, the 1-2 Dolphins have an easy game at Houston, and the 1-2 Bills have a home game against a dome team, Minnesota."

(Try to) Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. Sorry this was late; I was sick on Monday.

PPS. 2-1!

Patriots 24, Jets 17 (9/17/2006)

Well, I hope you've been good boys and girls while I was gone. The Patriots sure were, pulling out wins the first two weeks to lead their division at the crucially important one-eighth-of-the-season point. Sunday's scintillating and then nerve-wracking 24-17 win over the Jets came courtesy of early defensive domination and late defensive incompetence -- sprinkled with a nice ground game and a sporadic passing attack.

You've got to give the team credit; they saw what happened last year when Tom Brady led the league in passing -- an early playoff exit. So they drafted Laurence Maroney and made sure Corey Dillon got healthy, and it's working out perfectly. Dillon (153 yards) and Maroney (151) are #14 and #16 in the NFL in rushing yards, respectively, and that puts *both* of them on pace to exceed 1,200 yards for the season.

The offensive line blew away the Jets defense most of the day, and surprisingly, they ran to the right behind rookie Ryan O'Callahan just as often as to the left behind veteran Matt Light. The line gave up only one sack and only a few pressures, and the holes were gaping early on and still big enough when the Jets knew the Pats were going to run late in the game.

It was nice to see some new receivers get started, but Doug Gabriel needs to either make a catch (he dropped two catchable balls) or knock down a potential interception (which he didn't on Brady's only pick). Rookie Chad Jackson had a touchdown grab and not a whole lot else. Brady himself needs to improve a bit. He floated a few early passes and on a few third downs he forced passes to his more familiar targets -- even when they were well covered. And on his INT, I think he was expecting Deion Branch to jump higher than the defenders and make the play. Take note, Tom: Deion is gone, time for him to be forgotten.

On defense, the Pats line dominated like I've rarely seen. They went with a 4-3 alignment and overpowered the Jets offense all day. Richard Seymour was his usual monstrous self, Vince Wilfork was rarely controlled by New York, and Ty Warren is becoming a real force. Jarvis Green even got into the act; and all that superb line play made it easy for the linebackers.

Tedy Bruschi was back (and even had a late interception), and he played well. Junior Seau improved from the Bills game, and apparently, he's doing more film study than anyone else on the team. Pretty obvious he wants to win a championship and retire on top. Mike Vrabel had an up-and-down game, blitzing himself out of a few plays and slamming right into the heart of a few others.

But when it comes to inconsistent play, no one topped the Patriots secondary on this day. As a unit, they held the Jets to 97 net passing yards through 38 minutes, only to give up two times that in the final 22 minutes. The coverage was okay, they simply forgot how to tackle, with Eugene Wilson suffering the ultimate indignity when he missed the tackle twice on the same play (a 46 yard touchdown by Laveranues Coles). Rest assured that Belichick will hammer the fundamentals all week.

Special teams were also up-and-down, with a decided advantage in punting and punt returns, a slight deficit in kickoffs, and a blocked field goal that would have sealed the game. A bit more work, to be sure, but I think Brad Seeley's up to it.

Note #1: for the record, the Patriots could have won both of these games much more handily. They had the ball in prime scoring position at the end of each game, but played clock management to seal the wins. The passing game is a work in progress, but the running game is third best in the league.

Note #2: even though Deion Branch was traded, the Patriots will feel the loss of David Givens more this year. He was more dependable on third down and had the speed of a wide receiver and made the tough catches you'd expect of a tight end. He is what Keyshawn Johnson was supposed to be, only quieter and harder working. I can't remember the last time he dropped a pass on third down.

Note #3: the Bills are a more dangerous team than the Dolphins this year. Young teams win with special teams, ball control offense, opportunistic defense, and mistake-free play -- and that is Buffalo so far. The Dolphins have a new QB, new offensive coordinator, new offensive system, and one fewer running back (Ricky Williams is suspended for the year). It will take them until at least November to get their offense in sync (if they ever do), and by then, they will barely be in playoff contention.

So where does that leave us. Well, the Pats have the best record possible after two games, and their first stern test will be this Sunday against Denver. The teams are #3 and #4 in rushing yards so far, and Denver always, always plays tough in Foxboro. I won't be there, but my more-than-capable brother will take up the slack.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Bills and Jets play each other this week, and one of them will end up 2-1. So if the Pats want to stay ahead of the pack, they have to beat the Broncos."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-0!

Patriots 2006 Season Preview (9/1/2006)

Hi all,

This is going to be a shortened version of what I usually send around before the season (I can hear the applause from here).

Quickly, here are the important changes the team underwent this off-season.

The Draft

The draft brought improvements at running back and tight end. Laurence Maroney stood out all preseason, running, catching, and blocking. And even undrafted rookie Patrick Cobbs is threatening to make the team. And with Ben Watson's improvement and two draftees to join him and Daniel Graham, tight end could be one of the strongest positions on the team. Lastly, kicker might not be better than when Automatic Adam strolled the sidelines, but rookie Stephen Gostkowski hit one from 54 yards last night and his kickoffs have been consistently deeper than Adam's were.

The Offense

It'll be more running and less passing than last year; you can bank on it. They've got the horses to run (though Maroney missed last night's game with a reported knee injury) and don't have the horses to pass all the time. Of the significant 2005 receivers, only Troy Brown returns -- that is until Deion Branch comes back.

The O-line kept its most important component, coach Dante Scarnecchia. There will be some plug-and-play with lineman moving in and out; but the team ran pretty well and protected Tom Brady very well in the preseason. The balance on offense and depth at running back will help keep Brady healthy, which is important since the plan appears to be to have only two quarterbacks on the roster.

The Defense

Junior Seau played in only a few plays in the preseason -- and he ran himself out of about half of them -- so he'll have to buckle down and play his role to be of much help. Rosevelt Colvin and Mike Vrabel kicked hiney so far, but the team really needs Tedy Bruschi to return to form. Monty Beisel just hasn't worked out (and he could reportedly be cut by Saturday) and Tully Banta-Cain hasn't improved enough yet.

The D-line is dominant when they all play (as they should be -- they were all drafted in the first round). They completely stymied the Giants run and pass games last night, right up until they took out Vince Wilfork and Richard Seymour. Seymour remains the most important player on defense, but with Wilfork's play improving and no backup, he is getting to that same status.

The secondary hasn't improved much, and they will depend on the front seven to slow down or stop other teams. Asante Samuel continues his solid play, and with Rodney Harrison back at strong safety, Eugene Wilson looks more confident back at free safety. But Ellis Hobbs hasn't improved over last year and Randall Gay looks lost out there.

Special Teams

I don't want any whining about Adam leaving. I think he wanted to leave, so he got what he wanted (and is reportedly nursing a broken bone in his left foot, injured on the turf at Indy -- does that define "karma" or what?). The coverage teams have been very good in the preseason, and we will just have to wait and see how Gostkowski performs in the clutch.

Coaching

They named an Offensive Coordinator (Josh McDaniels) and a new Defensive Coordinator (Dean Pees). McDaniels had some fun with multiple tight end sets in the preseason and Pees called a good enough game to shut down the first offense of every team they played so far.

Time will tell on this one, too.

The Schedule

The Pats start off easy, with Buffalo at home and the Jets in NY. The Buffalo game could be dangerous because it's a new coaching staff and offensive and defensive systems; but I give the win to the Pats, who have 10 days to prepare against a team with a bad quarterback. The Jets are rebuilding, and I don't expect them to beat the class of the division right away. I'm a little iffy about Denver, because they play so well against the Pats. Let's just say the Pats will go 1-1 against Denver and Cincinnati, but I can't decide which game they lose. Denver has an easy schedule prior to this one, but the Pats have revenge and home field on their side. Cincy's balanced offense has given the Pats fits recently, and the game in in Cincinnati. But the Bengals have two division games leading up to the game in New England, including an emotional roller coaster at Pittsburgh the week before.

The Pats should handle Miami at home. I'm not sold that the Dolphins are as improved as many say they are; and the Pats nearly beat them with second stringers last year. And Buffalo has the unenviable task of playing the Pats with 10 days to prepare (to start the season) and 14 days to prepare (after the Pats bye week). At Buffalo? still no problem -- pencil in another W. At Minnesota? Again, no problem. The Vikings are a trainwreck of a team, with uncertainty at just about every offensive position. Indy at home should be a good game. Pats have a short week, but the Colts play in Denver the week before. Pats haven't improved the secondary since getting waxed 40-21 by Indy last year, but the Colts lost Edgerrin James (and now James Mungro). My gut tells me the Pats will win, even though it might be time to put them down for a loss. Okay, it's a win ::crossing my fingers and holding my breath::

On November 12, it will still be 2006, so the Jets will still be rebuilding, so that's another win. At Green Bay should not be any problem, the Packers have been bad lately and the weather there won't be to the extreme yet. Chicago at home gives Belichick something he loves -- a one-dimensional offense to stop and a small-but-quick defense to plow through. That sounds like a win to me. Detroit at home? Try again next year -- it's a W.

The home stretch begins with a game in Miami. Given the easy games they should have had prior to this one, I'll give the Pats the nod. Houston hasn't improved enough to make things tough on the Pats in Foxboro, so that should be a win. But something tells me the team might finish with two losses. The Patriots destroyed Jacksonville at home in last year's playoffs, but that was with a hobbled Byron Leftwich in freezing Foxboro. This one is a home game for the Jags and they will have revenge on their side, so I can see the Pats dropping this one. Furthermore, if form holds, the game in Tennessee against the Titans won't mean anything by this point in the season. If it counts for something (playoff position or a bye week), then the Pats will win. If not, I think Tennessee will pull it out.

One last piece of information; something tells me the Pats will lose a game somewhere between the Indy game and the second Miami game. Beyond the Colts, the teams in that stretch shouldn't give the Pats too much trouble; but something is telling me they'll lose one. Maybe it'll be the Colts and that will end the suspense.

So with one loss mid-season, that makes the Pats 12 - 4 (or 13 - 3 if they can avoid the letdown). That will easily give them another division title and put them in the running for a playoff bye week.

My personal schedule in September is very busy, and I'll be semi-incommunicado for the next two weeks. So there won't be any summary after the season opener in Buffalo and might not be one after the Denver game. I could always send out an archival summary those weeks, just to keep you on your toes. Let me know if you want that, and I'll let popular demand decide the issue :)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Announcer: 'Deion Branch, your holdout netted you nothing and you're far from being in football shape, what are you going to do now?' Deion Branch: 'I'm going on injured reserve!'"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Patriots 2006 Pre-season Preview (8/11/2006)

The Pats begin their quest for another championship in just a few hours... with an unimportant game in Atlanta against the Falcons tonight at 8:00. Sure, Super Bowl XLI seems like it's a half-year away (which it is), Deion Branch is holding out and half the squad sits on the sidelines at practice. But in August, these games are all we have to look forward to. So without further adieu, here are five things I'll be watching in the pre-season.

1. A shank or a clank, and you'll walk the plank (arrrr... matey).

Adam Vinatieri's only visit to Foxboro this regular season will be when the Colts come to town in November. Who replaces him is one of the most intriguing questions in the entire NFL. Veteran Martin Gramatica was out of football last year, but won a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers a few years back. He knows NFL pressure but has never replaced an icon.

He'll compete with rookie Stephen Gostkowski (what is it with kickers and the long, tough-to-spell names), who reportedly has a booming leg and has acquitted himself well in practice. On the plus side, he has *no* idea the pressure he's under. Might work in his favor.

Performance in pre-season games will determine who kicks for the Pats this year. So watch closely who boots the ball further on kick-offs and who hits more field goals and you'll have the inside track on who you'll see in the regular season.

(Note: in an associated issue, I'll be watching the long snappers closely. Lonnie Paxton [#66] is the veteran who snapped for all of Adam Vinatieri's important kicks, but when I visited camp, rookie Jon Condo [#46] snapped just as cleanly and quickly as Paxton. If he can do that during a game, he's probably a lot less expensive, and Paxton is 28 years old and useful *only* in long snapping situations.)

2. Receiving corps branches out.

With Branch holding out, it looks like Rache Caldwell (#87) and Troy Brown will start at wide receiver tonight. After that, it's anyone's guess who will catch the ball. The team has 12 wide receivers on the roster; nine of them have been in the NFL two years or less (four are rookies).

Until Branch returns (and he will, folks, trust me), I'd guess that Ben Watson and perhaps some of the running backs will get time at wideout. And should the holdout continue, look for tight ends Watson and Daniel Graham to carry more of the receiving load than in past years.

The Pats don't like giving in to player demands; but with the lack of talent at wide receiver, they might have to make an exception this year.

3. Three-linebacker Monty.

You've probably heard that Tedy Bruschi will not play this pre-season. He had wrist surgery and will be out at least until the opening game of the regular season. With Willie McGinest gone, this could make a position of strength awfully thin. Mike Vrabel can move back inside, and Rosevelt Colvin will do fine outside. The question might be whether or not Monty Beisel (#52) can handle the inside without Bruschi there to help.

Based on last year, when he got better as the year progressed, I would say yes. But he never played well without Bruschi; so this pre-season might tell us if he can handle it on his own. The best indicator is how far from the line of scrimmage he makes tackles. Three-yards-or-fewer is good, five-yards-or-more is bad. Not much margin for error; so keep an eye out to see if it's "second-and-seven" or "second-and-four" after Beisel makes a tackle.

4. Four legs are better than two.

Corey Dillon was injured most of last year and the other running backs suffered for it. Patrick Pass played more and got injured, Kevin Faulk played more and fumbled a lot, and the team had to play castoffs and tight ends behind Brady. So the plan is to have a healthy Dillon split time with rookie Laurence Maroney (#39), thus keeping both fresher and less likely to get hurt.

The surest way for you to know if that plan will work is to watch Maroney when he's on the field. If he misses blocks, drops passes ("not bloody likely," says my friend Allan, who raves about his hands), or dances around instead of running, the season will be a heavy dose of Corey Dillon and keep your fingers crossed. But if he picks up blitzers, hits the hole, and catches the ball, you will see better play from that position this year.

Note: the best way to judge this might be to see how much playing time he gets with the starters in the third pre-season game. By then, the coaches will know how much they can play him in the regular season, and if he's in with the second-stringers, it could be a long year for the rookie and a longer one for Dillon.

5. Defensive back shuffle.

Questions, questions, questions:
a. Will Ellis Hobbs continue to improve?
b. Will Eric Warfield acclimate to the defense better than Chad Scott or poor Duane Starks last year?
c. Will Randall Gay play better now that his injuries are healed?
d. Can Eugene Wilson transition from safety to cornerback (his college position)?
e. Will Tebucky Jones revive his career under the system that made him a trade-able commodity?
f. Will Rodney Harrison return to his All-pro form?

Here are my guesses to all those questions:
a. Yes, he is a gamer who loves to get up in the grill and push receivers around b. Yes, but he won't be the star he was in Kansas City c. Yes, but only marginally. We may have seen the best of him in his rookie season d. Maybe, but by mid-season he'll be back at safety e. Most definitely yes f. No, but he'll be one of the best backup safeties in the NFL.

Of course, there are many other questions. But these are the five I'll be focusing on from game to game. Hope this email helps you enjoy the pre-season a little bit -- because the games themselves are so boring.

Take care and enjoy the rest of your summer. Look for my bigger-than-ever blockbuster Season Preview email the week before opening day (which is 9/10).

Keep the faith,

- Scott

Patriots 2006 Off-season Update (7/26/2006)

Hi all,

It's been yet another interesting off-season for the Patriots -- made a bit longer by the early playoff exit. And contrary to all the blather I've heard lately, I think the team is slightly better than they were at the end of last year. How is that possible, you ask... after all, didn't Willie McGinest, Adam Vinatieri, and David Givens all leave? They did indeed leave; but the list of additions and additions-by-subtraction outweighs the losses by a slight margin. Care to know how? I'll tell you how, with a "scale of 1 to 10" rating for each position (ratings are 1 for the worst in the NFL and 10 for the best). And please remember, these ratings are for how the position was at the end of the season and how I see it going into the new season -- it is not a rating for the entire 2005 season.

(As always, if you're sick of hearing from me, just drop me an email and I'll take your name off the list. - Scott)

THE OFFENSE

Quarterback: 7.5 at the end of 2005, 10 to start 2006.

As I noted in early-November last year, Brady was having trouble throwing early in games -- some high, some low. The explanation came after the season, he was injured most of the second half of the year, and his performances showed it. He had two of his worst career games (statistically speaking) against KC and Denver. A healthy Brady is at least a 9.5, and a pretty big improvement over the end of last year. When healthy, no QB is more feared.

Running Back: 4.5 at the end of 2005, 6.0 to start 2006.

Late last year, Patrick Pass and Corey Dillon were both injured, Heath Evans was still learning the offense, and Kevin Faulk was overworked. To start 2006, Dillon will be healthy (or at least healthier), Evans will have an off-season under his belt, Faulk won't be overworked, and first round pick Laurence Maroney can only help. Health is the main improvement here. But if Dillon is truly ready to go and Maroney can learn the offense enough to get on the field, the rating could jump as high as 7.5.

Tight End: 4.0 at the end of 2005, 5.5 to start 2006.

They were below average at the end of last year and will start this year just above average. Daniel Graham's injury problems are the primary reason for improvement; but rookie David Thomas will force Graham to decide if he wants to compete for a job or just fall by the wayside. Along with a third-year Ben Watson, that competition will make them better in 2006.

Wide Receiver: 8.0 at the end of 2005, 3.0 to start 2006.

As 2005 drew to a close, the drop-off from Branch/Givens to Brown/Davis/Dwight/Johnson was frightening. I would have given the starting tandem a 9.5, and despite their job descriptions, Watson was their third-best and Faulk their fourth-best receivers. Branch could get open and/or take and take it the distance against anyone, and Givens probably had more clutch catches the past three seasons than any other receiver I saw. All that said, Givens is gone, Branch is holding out, and the current crop of backups/wannabes puts fear only into the Patriots coaching staff. If Branch holds out, the rating might drop to 1.5 -- yuck!

Offensive Line: 3.5 at the end of 2005, 6.0 to start 2006.

As last year drew to a close, Matt Light, Dan Koppen, and Nick Kazcur were injured and out of the Denver game. Russ Hochstein and Logan Mankins filled in admirably, but it just wasn't the same. Tom Ashworth signed elsewhere in the off-season; but the reason the rating is up is that Mankins and Kazcur were rookies who now have a season under their belts, and both Koppen and Light should be back this year.

THE DEFENSE

Safety: 4.0 at the end of 2005, 5.5 to start 2006.

Rodney Harrison is unlikely to start the year on the field, but should return mid-season. And the Pats improved simply by re-signing Tebucky Jones and giving the rest of the crew time to heal. I know he never did anything in New Orleans, but we won a Super Bowl with Jones in 2002 and he understands the defensive system here. Also, he can play strong safety so Eugene Wilson can move back to free safety; Artrell Hawkins just has to be better as a backup, and both James Sanders and Guss Scott will be healthy backups.

Cornerback: 3.5 at the end of 2005, 4.0 to start 2006.

The rating has the potential to go up based on improved health for Randall Gay and Asante Samuel, and the emerging Ellis Hobbs. But for now, this unit is only slightly improved, mostly because it is healthier.

Outside Linebacker: 9.0 at the end of 2005, 8.5 to start 2006.

They lose a half-point because Willie McGinest isn't there to provide depth. But with Mike Vrabel moving back outside and Rosevelt Colvin getting better all the time, IMO this unit will be just as productive, just not as deep.

Inside Linebacker: 9.0 at the end of 2005, 8.5 to start 2006.

Tedy Bruschi was still a milli-step slow at the end of the year, but his partner inside, Mike Vrabel more than made up for that. However, with Vrabel going outside, it's left to Monte Beisel and a full-strength Bruschi to hold down the fort. I remember that Beisel took a well-earned beating in my game summaries last year. But he was playing much better at the end of the year and has reportedly been wow-ing them in the off-season workouts and mini-camps. He should be a solid contributor to begin 2006, but just not as good as Vrabel.

Exterior Defensive Line: 9.0 at the end of 2005, 9.0 to start 2006.

I don't think any teams relishes the idea of facing Richard Seymour and Ty Warren. And with Jarvis Green backing up and newcomer (and former #6 overall pick) Johnathan Sullivan coming in, there's a lot of talent on the outside of the line.

Interior Defensive Line: 7.5 at the end of 2005, 8.0 to start 2006.

Vince Wilfork started the 2005 season slow and worked his way into a force by year's end. I hope he's learned to stay in shape and stay sharp in the off-season. And I like Mike Wright and Marquise Hill as his backups/linemates.

Special Teams: 7.0 at the end of 2005, 5.0 to start 2006.

At the end of 2005, the kick coverage was good, the return game was suspect, the punting game was very good, and the kicking game was good. No more Adam Vinatieri and a host of possible return men give this area a lot of uncertainty. The punting game and coverage should be fine, and the kickoffs will likely be better. But no one knows how the return game will pan out, or how the rookie (Stephen Gostkowski) or the veteran (Martin Gramatica) will work out in Adam's absence.

Coaching: 7.5 at the end of 2005, 8.5 to start 2006.

An overmatched Eric Mangini is gone, replaced by Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees, a man with more of a coaching pedigree than Mangini. And Josh McDaniels is officially the Offensive Coordinator, thus ending speculation and questions every week about who is calling the plays. I think Mangini's new job as the Head Coach of the Jets is addition by subtraction for the Pats; and a solid hierarchy on the offensive side will only benefit the team.

So how does it all work out? The average score at the end of 2005 was 6.46, the average score starting 2006 is 6.73. I guess that simply verifies what I've thought all along; the team is slightly better today than it was at the end of last year.

I'll be along with my "What I'll be watching for in the pre-season" issue in about two weeks, and then my blockbuster "Season Preview" in early-September. Until then, stay cool and dry and enjoy all the training camp chatter.

Monthly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Jets? Bills? Dolphins? Time to make room for another 'AFC East Champions' hat in my closet!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott