Patriots Botch Another, Seahawks Win 24-23

Seattle used an opportunistic defense and big plays on offense to down the Patriots 24-23 yesterday.  The loss drops the Patriots into a four-way tie for the lead/basement in the AFC East -- all teams at 3-3.  Next week they face the New York Jets in a game where the winner will have at least a share of the division lead... and the loser will have at least a share of last place.

There are many life lessons to be learned from football -- but the most important is that you need to take full advantage of your opportunities.  In life, you only get so many chances to buy Apple stock at $5/share; miss them and you will regret it.  In football, you only get so many possessions; mess them up and you will regret it.

Last week against Denver, the Patriots messed up two or three times and the Broncos messed up five or six times, so the Patriots won.  This week, the Pats messed up five or six times, and Seattle only messed up two or three times, so the Seahawks won.  The maddening thing is that with all their defensive problems and missed opportunities, the Patriots are just three plays away from being 6-0 instead of 3-3.

The Patriots screw-ups from yesterday are an impressive list:

1. On Seattle's second possession, Jerod Mayo whiffed on third-down tackle of QB Russell Wilson, and Wilson converted the first down.  The next play was a touchdown pass instead of a field goal attempt.
2. The Patriots got a gift on a blown punt, taking over at the Seattle 24 with the clock running down in the second quarter  But they screwed up time management for the second week in a row, and when Tom Brady was called for intentional grounding, the half ran out without even a field goal attempt.
3. As the third quarter headed into the fourth, the Pats drove 60 yards to the Seattle 6 yard-line.  But Brady threw an interception in the end zone, depriving the team of an easy field goal try.
4. Then the Patriots defense got their second fumble recovery of the game, but after passing for 45 yards on two plays, they went conservative (three Stevan Ridley runs) and settled for a field goal.
5. And after two more lackluster "drives," Sterling Moore blew his outside containment on the last Patriots punt of the day, giving the Seahawks a short field to get the winning touchdown.

Take away one of those screw-ups, and the Patriots come out on top.  After all, they only lost by one point against the top-rated defense in the NFL, in one of the most hostile environments in all of sports.  But instead, add up all those missed opportunities, and the Patriots weren't good enough to overcome them.

Brady had by far his worst game of the year.  Many of his throws were short (though some of that was caused by Seattle pressure).  And both of his interceptions were bad -- the first one was to a blanketed Deion Branch and the second one was in the red zone, where he needed to protect the ball for a field goal at the very least.  He ended up 36 of 58, 395 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 INTs.  But he seemed out of sorts overall; not audibling as much, throwing to covered receivers too often, and committing two intentional grounding penalties.

His receivers mostly did their job; though there were several balls that went through receivers hands (it was raining, after all).  Wes Welker continues to prove that reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated -- notching 10 receptions for 138 yards and a stretch-to-the-pylon touchdown.  Aaron Hernandez returned to get 6 catches (30 yards and a touchdown), and Brandon Lloyd and Rob Gronkowski also got 6 catches each (for 80 and 61 yards respectively).  But none of it could make up for the two interceptions; those were killers.

On the offensive line, the most intriguing matchup was left tackle Nate Solder versus sack machine Chris Clemons of Seattle.  Solder did an adequate job in that one-on-one battle, winning most of the time.  However, he let Clemons get pressure twice on the Patriots last-gasp possession, which sort of negated good work most of the day.  In fact, Brady was kept pretty clean on the day (5 QB hits, 1 sack for 7 yards); though the pressure kept him from stepping into his throws.

The Patriots tamed their own running game, rushing just 26 times for 87 yards (3.3 ypc).  A far cry from the last two weeks of 250+ yards a game, but probably necessitated by the defense being played.  The prior games made the Pats running attack look better because those teams played soft zones to make sure they didn't get beaten by the passing game.  Not this week -- Seattle played mostly their base defense, and they held up well enough to keep the Patriots 10 points below their 33-point season average.

The defense pitched in with two fumble recoveries and some timely plays to end drives.  But in the end, they gave up way too many big plays.  Wilson had 6 plays that covered over 20 yards: 22, 24, 29, 46, 50, and 66 (the 46 and 66 yarders coming in the fourth quarter).  And those big plays all came on scoring drives.  And it was the entire defense: sometimes the DBs let up big pass plays; sometimes the linebackers let them up; and sometimes the defensive line let the QB out of the pocket so he could make them.

Rookie Chandler Jones impresses in pass-rushing (2 sacks for 10 yards, 3 QB hits, and 1 forced fumble), but he still doesn't hold the edge against the run.  He's a work-in-progress, but he's great at part of his job and improving at the other part.  Pressed into full-time duty, lineman Jermaine Cunningham looked more like the guy from the last two years -- that is he disappeared.  Rob Ninkovich excelled at linebacker, and if Cunningham could hold up, perhaps the overall defense would benefit from moving Ninkovich back to LB permanently.  But the team can't do that until someone steps up to take the left end position.

Brandon Spikes did some guessing and mostly got it right -- two tackles for a loss and a QB hit.  And Mayo ended up with eight tackles, but it's the one he missed against the Seattle QB that stands out the most.  All he had to do was hold up Wilson until the rest of the team arrived, but he completely whiffed and that changed a field goal attempt into a touchdown on the next play.  It is not the kind of tackle a player like Mayo can miss in that situation.

The secondary... whew, what stinker.  Time after time, play after play, long passes sailed toward Seahawks receivers who were well covered, and the Patriots defenders never turned around to knock the ball down, never cut in front for an interception, and too often got called for interference.  This week's torched DB was Kyle Arrington, who was targeted more than anyone else, and who allowed play after play without slowing things down at all.

And on the last Seattle drive, with the game on the line, both starting safeties were out with injuries.  But rather than take my advice and put Devin McCourty at safety, the team went with rookies Tayvon Wilson and Nate Ebner.  With predictable results.  Wilson got turned around, Ebner reacted too late, and it was a 46-yard touchdown over both their heads.  Ballgame.

Special teams didn't distinguish themselves, either.  The long punt return came at exactly the time it could not come.  And the Seattle punter's net average (43.0) was almost as high as Mesko's gross average (44.3).  Although Stephen Gostkowski redeemed himself from his recent struggles, hitting 3 of 3 field goals and getting 4 touchbacks on 6 kickoffs.

As for the coaching, it was remarkable to see the creativity on offense evaporate in the fourth quarter.  Seattle used run-blitzes to stop the Patriots cold on those last two possessions; but the Pats never audibled to a screen pass or a short slant to combat it.  And they have to rethink how they handle timeouts at the end of the half.  For the second straight week they botched things just before the half, but they didn't learn their lesson from the Denver game and paid the price against the Seahawks.

So where does that leave us?  3-3 isn't great, but overall the team isn't playing terribly.  A play here or there and they could easily be 5-1 or 6-0.  But they have to be more consistent against the Jets this weekend.  The only reason the rest of the AFC East is tied with them is that they haven't played games against all the teams yet.  They have the Jets followed by the Dolphins -- wins those two weeks puts them atop the division, with only Buffalo possibly tied with them (and the Patriots holding the tie-breaker by virtue of their head-to-head victory over the Bills).

(Very Telling) Statistical Oddity of the Week: On their scoring drives, the Seahawks averaged 10.92 yards per play; on their non-scoring drives, they averaged 2.52 yards per play.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Screw up the end of the half, okay.  Botch the punt coverage, it happens.  But you can't have red zone turnovers."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  3-3!

Patriots Handle Manning, Broncos 31-21

(Sorry for the delay; I was out of town and offline for the entire day after the game, so no way to get the update in.  This update will be brief; though I hope informative.)

The Patriots rode three Denver turnovers and several other miscues to a 31-21 victory.  The win puts them at 3-2, once again placing them atop the AFC East all by themselves, a game ahead of all the other teams (who are bunched at 2-3).  The schedule has them flying west to play in Seattle, a difficult venue and a better team than most predicted.

Quick Points: Offense

1.  Enough already about Wes Welker being on the outs with the Patriots.  He made more catches every week so far this season: 3, 5, 8, 9, and 13 (and note, he's already second in the NFL in receptions.)

2.  The running game is for real -- 247 yards last week, 251 this week.  The last time the Patriots ran for 200+ years two weeks in a row was a long time ago (trivia question: name the year -- answer below).

3.  But Stevan Ridley needs to get serious about not fumbling.  In his last 6 games, he has 3 fumbles and he lost 2 of them (and he was centimeters away from another fumble at the goal line against Denver).  If he keeps it up, Brandon Boldin will take his job.

4.  The Patriots lead the NFL in scoring, and the offensive line is a work-in-progress (at best), they have been missing two of the key receivers (Aaron Hernandez and Julian Edelman), and the play-calling has been experimental at times as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels finds the plays that work best.

5.  Even with a 3-2 team, Tom Brady is probably in the running for league MVP again.  His numbers so far: 124 of 185 (67%), 1,450 yards, 8 TDs, 1 INT, and 102.8 QB rating.  And the offense should get better as the O-line gels and players return from injury.

6.  Danny Woodhead should never run the ball on first or second down.  He is much more effective when he runs against pass defenses on third-and-long.  And even though he's a liability in pass protection, he's good enough to make defenses pay if they don't know he's going to run.  (Note: point made by my friend Allan before the game.)

Quick Points: Defense

1.  The Patriots linebackers are subpar in pass coverage.  And it really shows with Dont'a Hightower out and safety Steve Gregory (out with injury) unable to help in short coverage.  This might be their achilles heel, but of course they have 11 more games to get it straightened out.

2.  As mentioned in previous updates, teams simply can't run consistently against the Patriots.  The team ranks 5th in yards-per-carry allowed (3.4) and haven't given up a single run of over 20 yards all season.

3.  The new safety rotation should be Patrick Chung, Gregory, and Devin McCourty.  Not that I'm down on McCourty, who is better than most people think.  But with rookie Tayvon Wilson in for the injured Gregory, the play-action fakes opened up too many intermediate passing plays.  And the Broncos hit several long pass plays (and just missed several other open receivers deep).

When McCourty played safety last year, at least he didn't get beaten deep.  The Patriots have more options at corner: Ras-I Dowling, Sterling Moore, Wilson, Alfonzo Dennard (who made some nice plays on Sunday), and even Nate Ebner.  But once you get past Chung and Gregory, their best option at safety is McCourty.

4.  Linebackers Rob Ninkovich and Jermaine Cunningham have improved immensely this year.  The 4-3 seems to suit Cunningham, who came off the milk carton to make several key plays already this year.  And Ninkovich was mostly just decent last year, but he's had two excellent games in a row and three overall this year.

5.  The Patriots lead the AFC in turnover ratio at +17 for the season -- an average of +3.4 per game.  The second-place team is only +8 (trivia question #2: name that team, answer below).

Quick Points: General

1.  The game was closer than you think -- without Broncos drops, it could have been a one-possession game.

2.  Patriots crowd did their best, but the stadium simply can't get that loud.  And before you blame the fans, remember that 99.5% of season tickets were renewed when they moved from Foxboro Stadium to Gillette -- and the lack of crowd noise was noted immediately at the new venue.  Same people, different stadium... you do the math.

3.  Al the Foxboro Weather God struck again.  The forecast called for rain all game long, but it only sprinkled in the first five minutes and was dry the rest of the day.  He's attended about 15 games, only one with bad weather.  For a price, he is available for weddings and bar mitzvahs -- if weather is important on your special day.  Please email for further details :)

So where does that leave us?  3-2 and leading the AFC East... has a familiar ring, doesn't it.  No chance the Patriots take the Seahawks lightly next week.  The last time they did that, the Arizona Cardinals surprised them and set them up to fall below .500 for the first time in almost a decade.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Shane Vereen's line in the game: 1 carry, 1 yard, 1 yard-per-carry, 1 touchdown, longest run 1.0 yards. Other than that run, you'd never know he even dressed for the game (no tackles, no pass receptions, and no targets in the passing game).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Cardinals held the Pats to 18 points, but they still lead the league in scoring."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  3-2!

PPS.  Trivia answer #1:

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The Patriots ran for 200+ yards 10 times in 1978, and that was the last time they ran for over 200 yards two weeks in a row.  Interestingly, the yards were spread out -- they did not have a 1,000-yard rusher that season.

PPPS.  Trivia answer #2: The Houston Texans are at +8 turnover ratio for the year, including the Monday night win over the Jets.

Patriots Blow Out Bills, 52-28

After sleepwalking through the first half, the Patriots roared back with a record 45 second-half points and drubbed their favorite whipping boys, the Buffalo Bills, 52-28.  The win, coupled with a Jets loss to San Francisco puts the Patriots in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East.  Only the losing Dolphins trail at 1-3.  Next week the Manning-led Broncos come to town for what will be an important game for both teams.

Neither team seemed interesting in winning in the first half.  The Patriots got zero points on three Buffalo turnovers, and the Bills could have put the Pats two scores behind but fumbled inside the 1 yard-line.  The Patriots had their first two fumbles of the entire season in the second quarter, but the Bills countered with two terrible interceptions and that fumble in the red zone.

But in the second half, there was no question who wanted to win.  The Bills scored on their first possession to take a 21-7 lead.  The next time they scored, it was already 42-28 Patriots and the game was effectively over.  The Patriots scored touchdowns on six consecutive possessions, and unlike the first half, they converted three Buffalo turnovers into 17 points.

Though he was masterful in the second half, Tom Brady needs to stop forcing the ball to newcomer Brandon Lloyd.  He targeted him as many times as Wes Welker in the first half, but had almost nothing to show for it.  Lloyd seems to understand the offense, but Brady has to trust that the chemistry with Lloyd will develop, and that the second half touchdown they combined on will be the norm in the future.  He can't continue to force the ball to Lloyd without risking interceptions (though thankfully there were none yesterday).

Brady's stats on the day: 22 of 36, 340 yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, 0 interceptions, 120.1 QB rating, 1 sack for 7 yards, and aside from forcing the ball to Lloyd a perfect day.  He threw it away when necessary and changed to running plays when necessary to exploit defensive alignments.  In fact, he was almost as instrumental in a dominating running game as any of the blockers.

Speaking of the running game, this was the first game in almost 30 years in which the Patriots had two 100 yard rushers.  Stevan Ridley continues his solid and sometimes spectacular running style with a 22 carry, 106 yard, 2 touchdown day.  And he picks up blitzers! Add to that rookie free agent Brandon Bolden's 16 carries, 137 yards, and 1 touchdown, and the team took 40 carries 247 yards (6.2 ypc) and got 4 touchdowns, including Brady's scramble being the fourth.  (Trivia question: name the last undrafted rookie to run for 100+ yards for the Patriots?  Extra credit if you can name the year and opponent.  Answer below.)

Bolden and Ridley ran through holes opened up by multiple players and factors.  The Bills played a soft zone so they wouldn't get beaten by the passing game, which made running easier.  But the offensive line did an outstanding job clearing out a stout Bills D-line.  And that was without star guard Logan Mankins (on the shelf for this game).  But the unexpected factor was the blocking by the tight ends.  Rob Gronkowski was the lead blocker up the middle for the lion's share of those yards.  And surprising newcomer Daniel Fells did a great job sealing the edge or kicking out on two of the touchdowns.

Not to be outdone, the receivers had two 100+ yard performances of their own.  Wes Welker made himself Mister Indispensable in the second half, with 6 catches for almost 100 yards after halftime.  He finished with 9-129, and converted first downs on 5 of 6 grabs in the second half.  Gronkowski started out shaky, with a few drops and a fumble in the first half.  But when the game was over, he had 5 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown.  And as noted, about 10 devastating blocks in the running game.  Danny Woodhead got the Patriots back in the game with a nice adjustment and run-after-catch for a 17-yard touchdown that started the six-touchdown train a-rollin'.

The defense had a bunch of stars on the day.  But none shone brighter than Rob Ninkovich or Vince Wilfork.  On a day when the Bills (who led the NFL in rushing before yesterday) could have gashed the Patriots with cut-backs and power rushes, Ninkovich and Wilfork sealed the outside and the inside respectively.  Ninkovich had 7 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble.  Wilfork had 3 tackles, 2 passes knocked down, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.  These to set the tone on the defensive line, and Chandler Jones and Jermaine Cunningham pitched in with timely plays.

The linebackers had a down day until the Bills fell way behind.  Once Dont'a Hightower went out, Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick exploited bad linebacker coverage for big gains in the passing game.  Pass coverage is not the strong suit of either Brandon Spikes or Jerod Mayo.  And even though Spikes did make one nice play in pass coverage and Mayo got a tipped-ball interception, the mid-level passing game is what kept the Bills alive.  Both players are more run-stoppers, and Spikes had a huge game in that area, forcing the first-half fumble that kept the score close.  But the fact remains; if Buffalo hadn't insisted on giving the game away, we might be talking about the team's weakness and lack of depth at linebacker (Tracy White, really?).  But of course, a win cures all ills...

The secondary was also up-and-down on the day.  Devin McCourty nabbed two interceptions and knocked away two passes.  He also did a great job in run support (and always does).  However, he also let up at least two long passes, and just about everyone in the secondary missed Donald Jones on his 68-yard jaunt.  Sterling Moore and Kyle Arrington continued to battle every down.  It isn't perfect with either of them, but mostly teams seem to pick on McCourty, so neither gave up a ton.

Rookie Tayvon Wilson looks like the real deal.  He got his second interception yesterday, and recovered a fumble, too.  He and safety Patrick Chung give the secondary some attitude and swagger, and they are sorely in need of that as teams continue to attack them as the weakest part of the defense.  Safety Steve Gregory impresses every game, although in the interest of full disclosure, both he and Chung missed the boat on Buffalo's second touchdown, letting them split the middle for an easy pitch-and-catch.

On special teams, Stephen Gostkowski's case of the "yips" showed up in the first half.  He missed two field goals, one wide right and one wide left.  He needs to get himself together before those misses cost the Patriots another game (as they did against the Ravens last week and the Cardinals the week before).  Punter Zoltan Mesko did a nice job, both punting and holding.  Though it's unclear if long-snapper Danny Aiken is putting it where it should be on field goals.  It looks like those snaps are a little close to the body of the holder; but that might be what they want, since it's what they get week after week.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels made great halftime adjustments.  It probably shouldn't have taken until the half, but getting back to Wes Welker and pounding the running game against five- and six-defensive back sets was the way to go.  And new tight ends coach George Godsey appears to be doing quite well, my preseason concerns notwithstanding.  Each new tight end seems to work into the offense well -- if not catching passes, at least doing a good job blocking.

So where does that leave us?  The Bills had a chance to go up 2.5 games over the Patriots (including the tie-breaker), but the comeback win basically gives the Patriots a 0.5 game lead over the Bills in the division.  The Broncos come to town next, and they have traditionally given the Patriots fits when they have good quarterbacking.  Well, it doesn't get much better than Peyton Manning, so things will not be easy this week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Oh, what to choose... the 45 points in the second half (NFL record), the two 100-yard rushers *and* two 100-yard receivers (only the second time in NFL history), or the 580 total yards (4th most in Patriots history).  I will go with Brady's astounding 19-2 record against the Bills.  I doubt there are any quarterbacks with that kind of record against a divisional opponent in league history.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If Gostkowski hits his field goals, the Patriots are 4-0 this morning."

Bonus Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Remember the Raven's debacle?  24 total penalties for 218 yards.  Against the Bills it was 4 penalties for 27 yards.  Welcome back, real refs!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  2-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer

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None other than BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 105 yards on 26 carries against these same Buffalo Bills on November 9, 2008.

Ravens Prevail 31-30 in New NFL Bloodsport League

After dozens of big hits and close plays, the Patriots game ended not with a bang but a whimper.  A last-second field goal gave the Ravens a 31-30 victory, but it was anti-climatic after yet another penalty gave the Ravens the ball at the Pats 9 yard-line.  That turned what would have been a 51-yard attempt into a 27-yarder -- though the kicker made it interesting by just barely keeping the ball inside the uprights.  The loss puts the Patriots at 1-2, in a third place tie in the AFC East, and under .500 for the first time since September 14, 2003 (more on that later).

The game featured so many yellow flags, it's difficult to figure out which players did well or poorly.  Devin McCourty knocked away four passes, but he missed an easy interception and was called for penalties on both of Baltimore's last two scoring drives.  Jerod Mayo made some outstanding plays in the running game, but he got called for holding to extend a Ravens drive that ended in a touchdown.  And Julian Edelman caught several key passes, including a touchdown to end the first half, but he had false start and offensive interference penalties.

The referees gave the Ravens a pseudo-timeout when they granted a bogus first-down measurement, they had to confer before overturning a catch (even though the Ravens receiver's second foot clearly landed out of bounds), and they completely missed an obvious personal foul on Ravens safety Ed Reed and a kick to the head by the Patriots Nate Solder.  They were so involved in the game that of the Patriots 10 longest plays from scrimmage, 4 of them included 15-yard penalties on the Ravens.  Now that is what I call exciting football!

(End of anti-ref rant... I think)

As for the game, you can call off the search for Wes Welker.  He had 3 catches for 14 yards in the first game, 5 for 95 last week, and 8 for 142 yesterday.  If the Patriots are angry at Welker, they have a funny way of showing it.  Brandon Lloyd led the team with 9 catches (108 yards), and he and Brady missed on several longer passes.  But their chemistry was always going to be a work-in-progress for the first four to six weeks of the season, and patience will pay off when the games get more important in January.  Note: Julian Edelman looked like he'd have a great game, but a hand injury kept him out of the second half.

Tom Brady's control of the offense was impressive.  He did a great job getting the Ravens to commit and show what they were running, and Brady audibled to the right play most of the time.  Baltimore couldn't get enough pressure without blitzing, and when Brady sensed a blitz, he went with the hot read and got the ball out quickly.  He only caved to perceived pressure once, and stood tall in the pocket against what was a ferocious pass rush at times.  Not a perfect performance, but when you play great players it won't ever be perfect.

The offensive line continues to get an incomplete grade -- they just haven't had enough time together.  Center Ryan Wendell snapped the ball when Brady wasn't ready and almost caused a turnover.  And both guards Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly whiffed on run blocks that blew up plays.  The Ravens got an impressive seven tackles for a loss, two sacks, and six more quarterback hits.  Oh, and with mediocre run blocking, the team averaged only 2.3 yards a carry.

The front seven on defense was largely ineffective at stopping the Ravens run.  Featured back Ray Rice had trouble at first, but when they brought in bruiser Brandon Pierce, it seemed to throw the Patriots line for a loop.  Because when Rice returned, he ran well -- ending the day with 20 carries for 101 yards and a touchdown.  And as you'd expect, play-action and sideline passes were much more effective once the Patriots had to commit a safety to stop the run.

Kyle Love didn't have his best game, and both Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower had some growing pains in the game.  Jones was okay holding the edge against the run, but he rarely got off the block to make a tackle.  Hightower had five tackles, but he got pushed out of the way by blocking backs and was out of position on at least two or three plays.  Speaking of out of position, Brandon Spikes guessed wrong on a few plays, and two of them went for very good yardage by Rice.

Even Mayo lacked consistency.  He led the team with 11 tackles, but got battered by the blocking backs and had a tough day defending short passes.  Pass coverage was his never his strong point -- and the best way to make sure he doesn't do it in the future is to stop the run and make the other teams throw long to get first downs.

The secondary started out strong.  Safety Steve Gregory intercepted the Ravens' second pass on a nice undercut.  And Devin McCourty nearly had another INT later in the quarter.  But everyone suffered once the safeties couldn't play back.  Ravens' QB Joe Flacco completed far too many sideline passes, sometimes when the Patriots were trying to confuse him and then sprint back into position.  The Patriots don't have any shut down corners.  What they have are corners who battle every play (Sterling Moore, Kyle Arrington, in addition to McCourty) -- and if they don't have safeties to back them up, it's tougher to be aggressive.

As a unit, the defense gave up 4 touchdown drives of 80+ yards.  But they also held the Ravens to an average of 5 plays for 21 yards in their non-scoring drives.  They simply need to be more consistent about getting that one stop to end a drive before it gets rolling.

I am ignoring special teams and coaching, because the officiating made it absolutely impossible to judge either.  Belichick spent half the game reminding the refs about rules and/or yelling that they were getting things wrong.  And there were penalties on about half of the special teams plays, so who knows how well the teams did?

Where does that leave us?  1-2 and looking up in the AFC East is unfamiliar territory.  The Jets and Bills are 2-1, and the Patriots have a chance to pull even with Buffalo next weekend, since they play the Bills there on Sunday.  A three-game losing streak is unlikely; care to guess the last time that happened?  (Answer below.)

Statistical Oddity of the Week: It has to be that the Patriots are under .500 for the first time in 9 years.  NBC noted this last night, but if you are a loyal reader, you've known about this since September 14, 2009 when I first unearthed it.  Note also that the Patriots total of 145 games at or above .500 is a full two seasons longer than the second-place team (the 1988-93 Bills).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Hey, the Pats are a work-in-progress on offense and defense, and they *still* almost beat the Ravens.  Even though they are 1-2, it feels like a playoff year to me."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  1-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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The Patriots lost four consecutive games in 2002: Chargers, Dolphins, Packers, and Broncos.

Cardinals Stun Patriots 20-18

In an apparent homage to the new season of The Walking Dead, the Patriots replaced their offense with a group of zombies and then bumbled their way through a 20-18 loss to the Arizona Cardinals yesterday.  The loss dropped them to 1-1 and into a four-way first place tie in the AFC East.  And it doesn't get any easier; next week brings very difficult trip to Baltimore to play the Ravens in prime time. (Trivia question: name the last time all four teams were tied for first place in the AFC East -- answer below.)

Special teams might look like the obvious goat, but the offense lacked consistency and missed several long plays that would have changed the game.  In fact, before each of the two special teams miscues the offense botched plays or play-calling: Wes Welker dropped a sure first-down before the blocked punt; and the Pats offense went into an inexplicable shell before Stephen Gostkowski pulled the potential game-winning 42-yard field goal.  Not to let special teams off the hook, but the offense did not hold up its end of the bargain yesterday.

Apparently the Patriots could only mask the offensive line problems for one week.  Tom Brady was under pressure and on the run most of the day (4 sacks for 19 yards, 6 QB hits).  And a week after they pounded the Titans for 162 yards and a 4.6 ypc average, they had just 90 yards and 3.2 ypc.  However, believe it or not there was improvement -- mostly in pass blocking by the tackles.  The inside linemen had a terrible day in pass protection, with everyone whiffing on at least one assignment and Brady paying the price.

Brady was not stellar, understandable given all the pressure.  He and Brandon Lloyd missed a few downfield connections, and some of Brady's throws were low and uncatchable.  He also turtled up twice when no one was about to hit him, though that might be understandable given how often he did get hit.  He finished 28 of 46 (61%) for 316 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and a 79.6 QB rating.

The running game (Brady's best friend against the Titans) didn't get enough traction, following up six-yard gains with four-yard losses.  Stevan Ridley did what he could, but they kept running outside and the Cardinals kept shutting it down.  And every inside handoff to Danny Woodhead failed (including the one called back on a Gronkowski holding call).

As for the receivers, everyone except Julian Edelman missed passes that should have been caught.  Edelman (5 catches for 50 yards) was far from the star of the game, but he was their most consistent receiver on the day.  Lloyd led the team with 8 receptions, but for a very low 7.5 yards per catch (mostly owing to miscommunication on a pair of long passes that fell incomplete). Rob Gronkowski made some amazing catches and dropped at least two that he should have had.  And his holding penalty cost the Patriots a winning touchdown -- not to mention the illegal motion penalty that cost them another five yards on the potential game-winning field goal.

The offensive play-calling was subpar.  Where were the screen passes to slow down the pass rush?  Why didn't they realize the Woodhead runs weren't fooling anybody?  Everyone in the stadium seemed to know it except the Patriots.  And it might be time to rethink a 50-yard bomb on second-and-nine or a 30-yard out on third-and-two.  Stick with what works: ball control through short passes.

No one should have any complaints about the defense.  They gave up just one long touchdown drive, got a turnover to get the team back in the game, and got an improbable fumble recovery with 1:00 left to give the team a chance to pull it out.  They notched as many three-and-outs as they gave up scoring drives (4 of each).  And they stuffed the run and neutralized one of the best receivers on the planet, Larry Fitzgerald.

Brandon Spikes had a monster game: 7 tackles (1 for a loss), 2 quarterback hits, the huge forced fumble, and many plays that he redirected before they could even get started out of the backfield.  When he guessed, he guessed right.  Jerod Mayo led the team with 9 tackles (though he's still not great in pass coverage), and rookie Dont'a Hightower played very well in both the run and pass defenses.

Along the line, Kyle Love was a one-man wrecking crew in the first half.  He made 3 crushing tackles, and gave up absolutely zero yards when going his way.  Between Love and Vince Wilfork the Cardinals had a tough time doing much on the ground.  The other rookie first-rounder, Chandler Jones, ended up with a nice stat line: 5 tackles, 1 for a loss, 1 QB hit, and 1 forced fumble.  And Ron Brace and Jermaine Cunningham even visited the stat sheet for a change!

The secondary was far from perfect, but safeties Steve Gregory and Patrick Chung are starting to gel quite nicely.  Just 8 tackles and 1 pass defended between them, but no long passes or blown coverages on the day.  Cardinals' QB Kevin Kolb helped the Patriots cornerbacks with some errant throws.  But for the most part, the cornerback threesome of Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, and nickleback Sterling Moore did a good job of pressing the receivers and keeping short plays from becoming big ones.  Not perfect, but good signs so far.

Special teams did not play well.  Gostkowski blew the last-second field goal attempt and screwed up a late kickoff (though the results weren't all that bad).  Punter Zoltan Mesko had his first punt blocked (which led directly to an Arizona touchdown), and he also booted one to the five yard-line, but the coverage team didn't get there in time to down it.  Mistakes in this area can kill you, so they have to redouble their efforts and get things shored up.  But again, the loss really isn't on them.

The coaching was a mixed bag.  The defensive game plan and execution were spot on.  However, the special teams should have been better prepared for the Cardinals' schemes on the blocked punt.  And the offense didn't click and they needed better adjustments and more use of the no-huddle.

So where does that leave us?  The Patriots are 1-1 and in danger of falling below .500 for the first time in ten years.  The Ravens lost a tough one this week, and they will be determined to avenge last year's loss in the AFC Championship Game.  The Patriots rarely lose two in a row, so something has to give.  In any event, you have your Sunday back -- this one is a night game, so get out and enjoy the fall weather during the day.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Larry Fitzgerald's performance, 1 catch for 4 yards, is his lowest output since he had 1 catch for 2 yards against the Giants -- in 2004 (his rookie year).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "46 seconds left and a first down inside the 20; and they go for the kneel-down and field goal?  That's a head scratcher."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  1-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer: Trick question -- all four AFC East teams were tied at 0-0 two weeks ago :P

Patriots Top Titans 34-13

As expected, the Patriots started their ninth consecutive season with a win, this time a 34-13 over the rebuilding Titans in Tennessee.  The win put the Patriots atop the AFC East, tied with the victorious New York Jets.  And next week they hold their home opener against the Arizona Cardinals, who showed little offense under QB John Skelton in eking out a win over Seattle.

The Titans play a soft zone defense, so they had little chance of stopping the Patriots offense.  Tennessee was also the perfect team to face early in the season, given that they rarely blitz and play little man-to-man.  Those kind of defenses could have caused problems with the troubled Patriots offensive line.  But with the soft zone, Tom Brady faced only mild pressure and was hit very few times -- while slicing through the Titans like a skilled surgeon.

The Patriots used up-tempo offense and the running game to mask their offensive line problems.  And there were problems, specifically at the edges.  Nate Solder got beaten a few times and Sebastian Vollmer did okay but not great -- as most of the pressure came from outside.  Brady did a nice job moving in the pocket to buy time when there were missed assignments.  And overall the interior linemen did a very good job.

Brady was not perfect, throwing several passes at receivers' feet and missing a few timing throws down field.  But he ended the day an efficient 23 of 31 for 236 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions (117.1 QB rating).  Not bad for a guy with a busted nose, which he got on the only Tennessee sack of the day.  He was hit a few times, too, but overall did a nice job checking into and out of plays and going no-huddle to keep the Titans guessing.

It was surprising that it was Stevan Ridley who ran 21 times for 125 yards, while Tennessee back Chris Johnson had just 4 yards (his career low).  If Ridley can correct his fumble-itis from last year, he has a chance to be a star in this league.  He runs under control, so he can make multiple moves as he goes down the field, and he catches the ball well out of the backfield and blocks nicely on blitzes.

The tight ends carried the load among receivers.  Rob Gronkowski pulled in 6 catches for 60 yards (and a nifty touchdown), and Aaron Hernandez got 6 of his own for 59 yards.  And Brandon Lloyd did a credible job, messing up a few times, but grabbing 5 for 69 yards of his own.  You could see his talent on a sideline catch that had him looking like Spiderman to get both feet down.  Once he and Brady get their timing down, you'll see his name on top of the receivers list most weeks.

Both Danny Woodhead and Wes Welker were almost completely ineffective.  Woodhead had one nice run around right end, but he ended the day with 6 rushes for 20 yards and no catches out of the backfield.  And Welker grabbed only 3 catches for a meager 14 yards, and converted only one first down.  (Trivia question: when was the last time Welker had fewer catches and yards in a game -- answer below.)

Maybe missing the preseason set them back, or perhaps the other weapons have surpassed them.  The next few weeks should tell the tale.  I expect Welker to return to form, but I was never sure Woodhead was the final answer as a third-down back.  Although they don't have a lot of good options if he isn't the answer.

All three defensive groups were better yesterday than they were last year.  The line shut down the inside run, the linebackers closed off the wide runs, and the secondary gave up some yards but made big plays when necessary.  Still a work in progress with all the rookies and new guys, but a very good first effort.  And it was mostly old-fashioned beating the player across from you -- should be interesting once they put more exotic packages back into the playbook.

The interior line had a stellar day.  Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, and Brandon Deaderick make a brick wall that no one was getting through.  On the outside, rookie Chandler Jones got his first sack and forced a fumble on the play, and he got inside pressure a few times.  But most impressive was his discipline at holding the edge against the run.  It meant he couldn't just pass rush with abandon, but he did it anyway, which is what Belichick requires.

The new linebacker alignment, with Jerod Mayo and Dont'a Hightower outside, and Brandon Spikes and some relief inside, worked out perfectly.  Mayo (13 tackles) and Hightower (5) stopped any runs that breached the defensive line.  And even though their pass coverage wasn't perfect, they made sure tackles after catches, and Mayo even knocked away one pass.  Even Jermaine Cunningham got into the act, with 3 tackles, a sack, and QB pressure that was a tick late to stop a touchdown pass.

In the secondary, the results were more mixed.  Nickel back Ras-I Dowling played the part of the whipping boy, repeatedly targeted and torched early in the game.  (In fact, if not for some Tennessee dropped passes, people might be calling for Dowling to be cut today.)  Fortunately, there were no understudies to Dowling -- both Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty were beaten a time or two but played well overall.  In fact, McCourty was second on the team in tackles (7) and had 2 passes defended.

Safety play was much better than the dreadful stuff they trotted out last year.  New man Steve Gregory only got beaten once that I saw, and Patrick Chung was flawless.  Only one problem with Chung, he went out with an injury (extent unknown at this point, of course).  Rookie Tavon Wilson made a nice play on an interception, and the secondary overall benefited from some Tennessee dropped passes.  But a step up in any event.

Special teams were absolutely brilliant on the day.  Of the Titans 11 possessions, 10 of them started at or inside their own 20 yard-line.  And the 11th one started at their 21 yard-line.  Aside from one touchback, a great day of punting from Zoltan Mesko.  And kicker Stephen Gostkowski not only drilled his scoring kicks right down the middle, he made a tackle on one kickoff return.

The coaching was a bit above the norm.  Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels was smart to keep Brady away from long passes that require lots of time and protection.  And his commitment to the running game is refreshing and should pay dividends down the road.  On defense, Matt Patricia's players gave up a 12-play 70 drive to start the game, but their adjustments shut down the Titans for the rest of the half and held the opponent to field goals on two very long drives (12-plays and 16-plays).

So where does this leave us?  1-0 is better than 0-1.  The Pats have now won nine season openers in a row, and they should be 2-0 after next week's game against Arizona.  It has to happen -- my predictions are perfect to this point in the season :)

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Aside from the kneel-down to end the first half, every single Patriots drive reached at least their own 45 yard-line -- and 7 out of 9 ended up in Tennessee territory.

Telling Statistic of the Week: 10 of the 18 players who made tackles for the Patriots yesterday did not make any tackles for the team on opening day 2011.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The secondary still scares me against good quarterbacks, but no one will run on this team."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  1-0!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Welker had 1 catch for 12 yards against the Houston Texans on 1/3/2010.  He left that game with a disastrous knee injury that cost him the chance to play the next week in the playoffs.

2012 Patriots Preview: The Schedule

I know you only read through the first two entries to get to this one -- the all-important preview of the Patriots 2012 schedule and predicted results.  Not that it's always (or even usually) correct, but it's my attempt to delve further into the 2012 season and figure out where the Patriots are likely to stumble and what their record will be.

And so, without further adieu, here's the 2012 schedule in a nutshell (as always, with the season broken down into quarters).

First Quarter

Week 1: The Tennessee Titans open at home against the Patriots, and start young quarterback Jake Locher.  Unfortunately for the Titans, he hasn't progressed much since last year, and the Patriots have plenty of tape on him to force Tenn. to run.  And that plays to the Patriots strength on defense (if you call it a strength).  Also of note, the last seven years, the Patriots are 7-0 in season openers, the Titans just 2-5.  Win for the Patriots.

Week 2: Arizona travels east for what will feel like a 10:00am start at Gillette, with whomever they dare put at QB.  Also, they don't have much at receiver beyond Larry FitzGerald, so unless he destroys them single-handedly, it will be another Patriots win.

Week 3: The team travels to Baltimore for a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game, the one that was twice choked away by the Ravens.  They will have revenge on their minds, and of course, their defensive biggest strength (QB pressure) plays right into the Patriots biggest offensive weakness (O-line).  The Patriots could win, but put it down as a likely loss.

Week 4: The Patriots third road game will be in Buffalo, and the division-rival Bills won't have a let down.  However, the Patriots had beaten the Bills 15 straight times before they blew a 21-point lead and barely lost last year.  The Patriots have revenge on their minds this time, and they will win despite the improved Bills defensive pass rush.

Second Quarter

Week 5: The Pats start the second quarter of the year with a home game against the Broncos and some new quarterback they signed.  The Broncos always give the Patriots trouble when they get any decent quarterback play, and Peyton Manning is a huge upgrade from Tim Tebow.  It's also a 4:25 game, so jet lag won't be an issue.  Even though it's a potential trap game for the Broncos, I hate to do it, but it sounds like a bad combination for the Patriots, so put down their second loss.

Week 6: Next up they fly to Seattle to take on rookie QB Russell Wilson.  Not only will the Patriots have five games of film to break down Wilson's tendencies, but this is most definitely a trap game for the Seahawks.  They play two eastern games the two previous weeks, and then have a huge division tilt the week after the Patriots game.  Besides, not much of a pass rush or a secondary out there.  Put it in the win column for the Patriots.

Week 7: Next up, the Jets bring their improved defense and imploding offense to New England.  By this time, the Patriots offensive line should be more in sync, and everyone will know all the trick plays the Jets have planned for Tebow.  And aside from that, it'll be the same Marc Sanchez and even less talent at receiver.  Sounds like a division win to me.

Week 8: The Patriots hop Lake Atlantic to London.  The good news is the opponent, the St. Louis Rams.  However, they do have a new head coach, longtime Tennessee head man Jeff Fischer, who emphasizes pressure on the quarterback.  Fortunately for the Patriots, it's only year one of the rebuilding plan, so they should handle this without too much difficulty.  Win.

Third Quarter

Week 9: Take the week off, the Patriots are on a bye.

Week 10: By this point in the season, Buffalo should be in their traditional slide, so the Patriots should win the rematch at Gillette Stadium.

Week 11: This could be a dangerous game; the Colts almost came back from a 28-point deficit against the Patriots last year with Dan Orlovsky at quarterback.  The difference this year is that Andrew Luck will be nine games into his career, and Bill Belichick's defenses have a way of confusing young quarterbacks the first time they play against them.  Patriots win.

Week 12: The Patriots then take off for an ultra-short week to play the Jets in New York on Thanksgiving (man, does time fly!).  Road division games are tough enough, and the Jets play a cupcake the weekend before.  So when you factor in the short week and the fact that the Jets will likely be playing for their playoff lives at this point, and it seems like a Patriots loss.

Week 13: Give Belichick ten days to prepare for a rookie quarterback in a division game (after an assumed division loss), and it shouldn't be close.  Miami is in transition, the Patriots have their eyes on greater prizes; they will win this one because they are supposed to win it.

Fourth Quarter

Week 14: The Patriots then have a Monday night showdown with the rising Houston Texans.  Unfortunately for the hometown team, Houston has precisely the kind of diverse offense that shreds them and a tough defense with a great coordinator.  Houston might have gone to the Super Bowl last year if their quarterback hadn't gotten injured late in 2011.  And even though they will be playing the third of three away games, they are good enough to hand the Patriots their fourth loss.

Week 15: Short week after a loss against one of the best teams in the NFC last year -- the 49ers -- this could be a recipe for a rare two-game losing streak.  But not this time.  The Patriots defense will find quarterback Alex Smith has plenty of weaknesses to exploit, and San Francisco running game will be much less effective against the stout Patriots front seven.  The 49ers also have a division game the next week and this will game will be the third that is at least two time zones away from their west coast home.  Patriots win.

Week 16: Next up is a trip to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars.  With Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne at quarterback, the Patriots only need to stop running back Maurice Jones-Drew -- and they will win by default.

Week 17: Miami comes to town after that, and unless the game is meaningless for playoff positioning, the Patriots win it in a walk.  Southern and dome teams often claim they don't let the weather bother them.  But there is plenty of evidence that they do.*  Patriots win this game if it means anything to them.

* The Patriots have 41-49 overall record against the Dolphins, but they are 10-4 against them in December/January.  This includes two losses when the Patriots played second-stringers in the last game of a season to avoid injuries going into the playoffs.

So there you have it, a predicted 12-4 record, certainly good enough for a division title, and probably puts the team in contention for a first-round playoff bye.

Keep the faith, and check back in Monday!

- Scott

PS.  0-0!
(but not for long)