Patriots Keep Rolling With 21-13 Win Over Chargers

Three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Brady beats Rivers. The Pats topped the Chargers 21-13 yesterday, winning their fourth straight game to land atop the AFC East at the halfway mark yet again. And in this game, Tom Brady moved to 7-0 all-time against Philip Rivers, whose only win over the Pats is against Matt Cassel. Next up is the bye week, so smoke 'em if you got 'em.

This game looked worrisome at times, but in the end, the Chargers shot themselves in the foot more often than the Patriots did. Los Angeles missed a field goal, gave up a horrible safety on a botched punt return, wiped out their own touchdown on a penalty, didn't drive inside the Patriots 20 yard line the entire game, and mishandled the clock on their final drive with a chance to tie the game.

All the Patriots did was drop some passes and miss two field goals. So on balance, the less self-destructive team won. It looked a lot like a pre-bye week game for the Pats.

The good news on offense is that the Patriots attack is always better when they force defenders to protect against multiple receivers and types of runners. Here are the numbers for their top five receivers and top two runners yesterday.

Receivers:
Rex Burkhead = 7 catches for 68 yards
James White = 5 for 85
Chris Hogan = 5 for 60
Rob Gronkowski = 5 for 57
Brandin Cooks = 5 for 26
Runners:
Dion Lewis = 15 carries for 44 yards
Mike Gillislee = 11 carries for 34 yards

It wasn't perfect yesterday; there were multiple drops and QB Tom Brady was under far too much pressure for much of the game (three sacks and seven QB hits). But other teams will have a very tough time defending the Patriots if they continue to feature that kind of diversified attack. There's a reason the Pats held the ball almost 37 minutes -- the Chargers couldn't figure out how to get off the field.

On defense, the news was mixed but leaning toward the positive. They blew one play and it went for an 87-yard touchdown run. Aside from that, they got off the field on third downs (30% conversions by L.A.), and they held the Chargers to 57% completions on just 30 attempts. Outside contain is still a problem against the run, as is the inside defense when Malcom Brown isn't in there (he missed yesterday's game ).

But linebackers Elandon Roberts, Kyle Van Noy, and David Harris all played their best games of the year. And Johnson Bademosi is rounding into a good corner, which will help with depth once starters Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore return from injuries. Not saying the defense is about to become a juggernaut; but they held their last four opponents to 14, 17, 7, and 13 points.

There was a miscommunication between corner Malcolm Butler and safety Devin McCourty on a touchdown pass, so there is obviously there is work to do. And I still think the lack of talent at linebacker will come back to haunt them if they make the playoffs. But there are encouraging signs.

And then there is special teams. First the good news; Brandon King and Jonathan Jones combined on a tackle in the end zone that scored a safety. And Jones almost stole another punt when he pushed a Chargers blocker into his own man trying for a fair catch.

However, kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed two field goals, although they were well-rounded failures: each from 43 yards, each from a different hashmark, and each from a different end of the field. He visited the locker room in the middle of the first half, but there was no follow-up on that from the broadcast crew -- so we don't know if his problems were injury-related.

But I'll suggest for the umpteenth time that they replace the special teams coach with a real special teams coach. The current guy (Joe Judge) was promoted from within and he appears to be out of his depth in trying to get Gostkowski right again. None of his misses have cost the team this year. But things are magnified in the playoffs; lest we forget they lost an AFC Championship Game four seasons ago partially because Gostkowski missed an extra point.

The coaching was decent in this game. Josh McDaniels abandoned the run too quickly a few times in the game, but fortunately the Pats defense held the Chargers down and the Patriots got back to it. The runs went mostly up the middle, excellent game-planning to take away the outside rush. Just wish they'd stuck with it more consistently.

And linebackers coach Brian Flores (last year's Coach Of The Year, at least in this space) is doing a good job making a more cohesive unit out of new and returning players. It isn't perfect yet -- Cassius Marsh still needs help, he gave up the fourth-down scramble last week and this week the 87-yard touchdown was run outside to his contain this week. But if last year is any indication, the linebackers will be solid by year's end.

Also, take a bow whomever is coaching Bademosi; quite the out-of-nowhere story this season.

So where does that leave us? 6-2 and ahead in the entire AFC is a good place to be. Oh sure, the Chiefs are 6-2 and hold the tiebreaker, but stay calm -- Andy Reid is the coach in KC; he'll be at least a game behind the Patriots by the end of the season.

Non-Brady MVP: Running back Rex Burkhead gets it this week, for his complimentary game of running and catching the ball well.

Statistical Oddity: To start the season, the Patriots gave up 300+ yards passing to the first six passers they faced. Since then, they gave up less than 300 yards to Matt Ryan, last year's MVP, and Philip Rivers, currently 10th in all-time passing yardage in NFL history.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: The Patriots held L.A. to just 52 offensive plays, their lowest total of the season. That is becoming quite a habit with the Pats (hello Atlanta Falcons!). (Trivia question: Against one team this calendar year, the Patriots failed to run more offensive plays in two separate games, can you name the team?)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe the Pats will make a trade by Tuesday so we'll have something to talk about during the bye week."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-2!

PPS. Trivia answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The Houston Texans tied for number of offensive plays in last year's playoffs (69-69) and ran more than the Patriots in their game earlier this season (71-64).

Patriots Outclass Falcons, 23-7

A funny thing happened on the way to 4-3, the Patriots detoured to 5-2 instead on the strength of a 23-7 beatdown of the Falcons at Gillette Stadium. The win put them atop the AFC East, a half-game ahead of the surprising Buffalo Bills (4-2). Next up is another surprise team, the 3-4 L.A. Chargers, who just shutout the Broncos 21-0.

Sunday night's game was easily the Patriots' best overall performance of the season. Their defense shut down the Atlanta offense for almost 56 minutes. The offense was diverse and efficient. And special teams was great in punt and kickoff coverage and even threw in a blocked field goal!

All three units were true team efforts, no single player really stood out over the unit play. Quarterback Tom Brady had a 121.2 rating, but only dropped back to pass 30 time. He ended up 21 of 29 for an efficient 249 yards and two touchdowns. The only throw that really stood out was his back-shoulder toss to Brandin Cooks; otherwise he simply carved up the Atlanta zone and waited out their man coverages.

The running backs split carries, with Deon Lewis carrying most of the load (13 rushes for 76 yards) and Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead dividing most of the other reps. Lewis and Burkhead impressed the most, the former with quick-hits and a great burst at the second level, and the latter for his speed to the hole and decent running for his first real plays of the season.

The receivers shared the load pretty evenly, as you can see from the receiving numbers: James White (5 catches), Chris Hogan (4), Cooks (4), Danny Amendola (3), and Rob Gronkowski (3) all contributed while none dominated. Although Gronkowski and Hogan get special mention for their blocking in the running attack.

And finally the offensive line started messy in pass protection but shored things up as the game wore on. They were very good run blocking, carving out enough room for 162 yards and a 4.5 average yards per carry. Nate Solder is still struggling, but the rest of the line looked very good, especially the interior.

All three levels of the defense were interesting to watch. The defensive line stuffed what is a good Falcons running attack, limiting them to 30 yards in the first half. Emerging star Trey Flowers continues to make impact plays (6 tackles and a huge penetration on the Falcons fourth-down at the goal line). And rookies Adam Butler and Deatrich Wise Jr. made good plays and held up well, while veteran Lawrence Guy gets better every week.

At linebacker, Cassius Marsh played better in pass coverage and Kyle Van Noy led the team in tackles (7); in fact, he made the tackle on the aforementioned fourth-down stuff at the goal line. If Dont'a Hightower can stay healthy, and Van Noy and Marsh continue to up their game every week, it's more and more likely the Patriots can do something in the playoffs without adding a linebacker via trade.

(Remember that last year I named linebackers coach Brian Flores the Coach of the Year. He molded his 2016 unit with mediocre talent and into a strength by year's end. If he can do that again, he should get serious consideration around the league for a defensive coordinator position this off-season.)

But the secondary might be most interesting of all. Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore were out with injuries, so Malcolm Butler and Johnson Bademosi had to step up against much bigger receivers. And they did! With an assist from safety Patrick Chung, they slowed down the Falcons and made big plays on third- and fourth-downs to stop drives before they got started. Bademosi and Butler were also among the team leaders in tackles, with seven and six, respectively.

When you consider that Jonathan Jones was their second-best corner to start the season, this unit could be a real strength when Rowe and Gilmore return. In fact, Gilmore could find himself riding the pine if he isn't careful, even though he is the highest-paid player on the team.

On special teams, Marsh blocked a field goal, making up for his lost outside contain on fourth-and-eight a few plays earlier. Jones had a great rush another field goal attempt, which might have influenced the kicker to hurry... and the kick doinked off the upright and was no-good. Stephen Gostkowski's kickoffs were great, as was the coverage.

The only downer was a Ryan Allen long punt that bounced into the end zone instead of checking up inside the ten yard line. But his other kicks were high enough to force fair catches by Atlanta.

The game was a coaching mismatch, but mostly because Atlanta stunk up the joint. Going for a fourth-down late in the first half was foolish, as was the slow-developing "jet sweep" called near the goal line (it was stuffed for a five-yard loss). But it wasn't just bad coaching by the Falcons; the Patriots had a great plan to stuff the run game and on offense they mixed pass and very effectively.

So where does that leave us? 5-2 is not a bad place to be, especially when you have only two convincing wins (New Orleans and Atlanta) and could easily be 2-5 or 3-4. This week will be an interesting match up, as the Chargers have the talent and some new life of late to give the Pats trouble.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Trey Flowers, for anchoring the defensive line and making plays that didn't show up on the stat sheet but were crucial to shutting out the Falcons for almost the entire game.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Both of the winless teams this season have winning records against the Patriots all-time. San Francisco and Cleveland are both 0-7 this year, but the 49ers are 8-5 all time against the Patriots and the Browns are 12-11. (Trivia question: Can you name the only NFL team that has never beaten the Patriots? Answer below.)

Bonus Statistical Oddity: In Super Bowl LI, the Falcons last scored at about 8:30pm Eastern Standard Time. Last night they first scored at 11:15pm EST. So after they took a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, they went 80:20 of game time -- or 261+ days, or 6,266.75 hours -- before scoring again.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Pats played a great game; they would have beaten just about anyone last night."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-2!

PPS. Trivia answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-7 all-time against the Patriots.

Patriots Outlast Jets 24-17

The Patriots used the mid-game to build a two score lead and held on for a 24-17 win over the Jets in New Jersey. The win put the Pats in first place, a half-game ahead of the 3-2 Bills (who are on a bye). Next up is a Super Bowl rematch against the Falcons at Gillette stadium next Sunday night.

Given my recent absence, I'll try to cover as much as I can from the past few weeks and this game. But suffice it to say there were some signs of progress this week.

For the first time in a while the Patriots defense made good adjustments during the game to shut down an offense that was gashing them. They did the same against Houston, then almost gave the game away late. Yesterday they adjusted and held the Jets to three points on their last eight drives.

The secondary got burned early but came back to clamp down on receivers in the second and third quarters. And this was without big-money free agent Stephon Gilmore or Eric Rowe (insert Nickelback joke here), both out with injuries. Malcolm Butler and Johnson Bademosi weren't perfect, but they mostly improved as the game progressed.

(Although they were helped by New York's curious decision to attack Butler instead of journeyman Bademosi, whom they left alone for most of the day. Perhaps the Patriots kept safety help to Bademosi's side. Not that you'd know it from the broadcast, they didn't have a single illuminating replay the entire game.)

In the first five weeks of the season, New York averaged 111.5 yards per game rushing and 4.5 yards per carry. But Matt Patricia's defense held them to 74 and 3.1 respectively. Good tackling technique and gap control led to five short-yardage stuffs in the last 45 minutes of the game, three of them giving the ball back to the Patriots.

Penalties were down for a change. The Patriots had 12 accepted penalties against Tampa Bay, and they are among the league leaders in most penalties. However, they had just six accepted flags against the Jets. And they didn't have those stupid penalties we'd seen the first quarter of the season: back-to-back roughing the passer calls, back-to-back running into the kicker calls, and calls for too many men on the field or lining up incorrectly. I'm hopeful this is the start of a trend where they get back to disciplined football and don't beat themselves.

The offensive rhythm looked a lot better, with Brady throwing "on time" more often and hitting receivers in stride so they could do damage after the catch. He wasn't perfect, perhaps owing to his left shoulder injury. But he made the plays necessary to keep the team moving and score points. (And between us, a few of his under thrown passes were due to being hit, but don't tell anyone else.)

Brady was protected better in this game. But I can't chalk that up to the O-line; it looked like they were chipping the outside rush with backs and tight ends. That's the wise thing to do, but it doesn't speak to much progress of the O-line, though they were a bit better this week, especially in the running game.

Rob Gronkowski is still a difference-maker, and as I've noted before, he is vastly more effective when the team runs the ball well. The team wouldn't have won without his two touchdowns. And Brandon Cooks looks to be completely in-sync with Brady, as is Chris Hogan. But Phillip Dorsett looks totally useless; he doesn't even fight for the ball when it's about to be intercepted.

One downside from the game was another field goal missed by Stephen Gostkowski (47 yards). His defenders say he is one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history. But he is not clutch, and he can't be counted on in a big spot. And I reiterate my suggestion from last year: bring in a real special teams coach. Gostkowski thrived under Scott O'Brien, who was a long-time ST coach. Current coach Joe Judge might be in over his head trying to figure out what ails Gostkowski.

So where does that leave us? All in all a good win, but still plenty of room for improvement. 4-2 is not a bad spot to be, especially when you could easily be 2-4. Next week against Atlanta could be a big problem if Gilmore isn't healthy.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: The running game was key this week, so it goes to Deon Lewis, who played a lot more because Mike Gillislee fumbled and was benched for a while.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots offensive has notched an impressive 106.9 passer rating. But their defense has allowed a dreadful 104.4 passer rating. (Trivia question: name the year and the team that gave up the highest defensive passer rating in an NFL season... answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The games against Atlanta, Denver, and Oakland will tell the us a lot more than the Jets game."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-2!

PPS. Trivia answer:

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The 2014 New Orleans Saints allowed a defensive passer rating of 116.2. That's even worse than the 2008 Lions, who went 0-16... blech!

Patriots Defense Restores Order In 36-20 Rout Of Saints

The Patriots righted the ship with a 36-20 victory over the Saints yesterday in New Orleans. The win put them in a tie with Buffalo for second place in the AFC East, trailing the 1-0 Dolphins by a half-game. Next week the Houston Texans come to town, to face the depleted Pats.

The defense improved as the game wore on, giving up just seven points and only one big play after the break. This is more characteristic of the defense under coordinator Matt Patricia, so it appears the missed assignments and big plays of the Kansas City loss might have been an aberration.

It also came with their best linebacker (Dont'a Hightower) out with an injury and their best defensive lineman from last year (Alan Branch) not starting due to a poor performance against KC. The ultimate "next man up" team got its biggest defensive line contribution from a rookie, Deatrich Wise (2 tackles, 1 sack, and 5 quarterback hits).

In the secondary it wasn't big-money Stephon Gilmore or touted vet Malcolm Butler who impressed, but second-year Jonathan Jones, who made two tackles and knocked away two passes, both along the sideline. Safety Patrick Chung played very well, making eight tackles, knocking down one pass, and providing excellent coverage on the Saints' tight ends and running backs in the short zones.

The offense just nailed it in the first quarter: three touchdowns on three drives, with a good mix of running and passing plays, and nice tempo-changing plays thrown in for good measure. Tom Brady still wasn't great, despite having very good numbers. For the second straight game, he laid out too many potential interceptions, including one actual INT where he got bailed out on a penalty call. (The defensive holding call, not the 12-men call.)

The receivers they had looked great. Chris Hogan (5 catches, 78 yards, 1 touchdown) ran both deep and underneath passes, taking on part of the Julian Edelman traditional role. Brandon Cooks looked good in his New Orleans return, and tight end Rob Gronkowski was otherworldly for three quarters (6 for 116 yards, and a 53-yard touchdown catch-and-run). Unfortunately he got injured late in the game; although it's a groin injury, not his back or a broken bone. Might have dodged a bullet on that one.

The downside is the sheer lack of receivers. Both Hogan and Gronkowski were gimpy by game's end, so without Edelman and with Amendola in the concussion protocol, they are left with just Cooks and newcomer Phillip Dorsett (late of the Colts). It'll be tough to patch the offense together this week if Amendola doesn't return.

If the receiving corps is short-handed next week, expect some running backs to take a few snaps each to cover for the missing receivers. After all, they did it this week. James White led the team with eight receptions (85 yards), and Rex Burkhead (3 for 41), Dion Lewis (1 for 11), and James Develin (1 for 16) all lined up at receiver for a few plays.

The backs also did a nice job running the ball. Led by Mike Gillislee (18 carries for 69 yards), they ran for 119 yards and a 3.8 yards per carry average. The O-line also impressed in pass protection, giving up just five QB hits and two sacks. Brady made some of the biggest plays when he had lots of time in the pocket, which happened frequently.

The kicking game is still a work-in-progress. Against KC, they had two penalties for running into the punter, in a row -- first time I've ever witnessed that. Yesterday Stephen Gostkowski missed another extra point, and they had him place his kickoffs short to force a return -- but the Saints broke one anyway and the Pats committed a 15-yard penalty on another one.

The punting is impeccable as always. But somehow they have to solidify both the extra points and the kick coverage teams. Mistakes like that have to be corrected by late in the year if the team expects to make the playoffs, or make any noise in the playoffs.

So where does that leave us? Head coach Bill Belichick has said in the past the second game of the year is the most important regular season game. Because if you win the first game, you want to continue the momentum. But if you lose the first one, you need to turn it around fast!

The Pats did that emphatically against the Saints. Next up is Houston, which will be a much tougher test if Amendola and/or Gronkowski can't go.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: I'm going with Chung, who was instrumental in sealing the short zones on defense. New Orleans was 4 of 12 (33%) on third-down conversions; first time in a while they've been that poor.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: This is the fourth season in a row the Saints started the season 0-2. (Trivia question: One other NFL team has also started the last four seasons 0-2, name it... Answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It was only the Saints."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-1!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The Indianapolis Colts have also started each of the last four seasons 0-2. I guess "Suck For Luck" has lingered longer than they thought it would.

Patriots Complete Astonishing Comeback To Win Super Bowl 51

The Patriots actually shocked the world last night, stunning everyone with a 25-point comeback to force overtime, where they won Super Bowl LI 34-28. It was the greatest comeback in NFL playoff history; no team had ever overcome a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit in the postseason. The victory gives the Patriots five world championships under the leadership of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady -- now the undisputed greatest of all time in their respective fields.

(Trivia question: the 25-point deficit was the largest comeback win of Brady's career. Can you name the team, quarterback, and number of points that was his largest comeback before yesterday? Answer below.)

The first three quarters were forgettable for Pats fans. Atlanta led 28-3 with 18 minutes left, in the game and a lot of that was aided-and-abetted by bad Patriots plays. In the first half, it was LeGarrette Blount's first fumble in 16 games, Tom Brady's first playoff pick-six, piss-poor run defense, and bad play-calling in the red zone. In the third quarter, it was dropped passes, blown coverages, and two special teams mistakes by Stephen Gostkowski (more on those later).

Not to take anything away from Atlanta. Their offensive execution was masterful, as coordinator Kyle Shannahan's plan slowly picked apart the Pats D. They got chunk plays running and passing, and some absolutely sick catches by Julio Jones. They executed well and showed great poise for the first three quarters.

But everything changed in the fourth quarter. After a third-quarter touchdown, the Pats entered the final 15 minutes down by 19. And all they did was score on every drive, blank the Falcons, convert two two-point tries, and double-up time of possession as they methodically worked closer and closer until they tied the game. And in overtime, they won the coin toss and scored yet another touchdown to claim the win

In that fourth quarter, Brady cemented his status as the greatest quarterback to play the game. In the final 19 minutes (including overtime), he went 22 of 29 (77.2%) for 248 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, a QB rating of 112.4, and four straight scoring drives.

Running back James White was the man in the second half, after both Blount and Dion Lewis struggled to contribute. White caught a Super Bowl record 14 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown, and he scored the team's last two touchdowns and added a two-point conversion. He was everything Blount and Lewis weren't: poised, effective, gutty, and clutch.

Among receivers, rookie Malcolm Mitchell proved the indispensable man. He caught five passes in the second half, four of them for important first downs. He and White became Brady's go-to guys as the Falcons doubled Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett. Bennett and Danny Amendola had a few big catches, especially Amendola's important fourth-down conversion on the Pats first touchdown drive, and his quick-out for another TD.

But the catch of the game was a tipped-ball-dive-forward-as-defenders-fall-all-around-you-and-grab-it-just-before-it-touches-the-field-and-control-it-among-defender's-feet-over-the-middle 23-yard catch by Edelman. This was the Pats version of the David Tyree and/or Jermaine Kerse catches of the past.

The offensive line picked a really bad time to have their worst game of the year. Atlanta had five sacks (24 yards), and officially eight QB hits (though they listed it at 15 during the broadcast). The Falcons didn't do any special blitzes, they just overpowered the Pats line, pushing them around in both the pass and run game.

Brady ended up with a SB record for yards and completions, but that was despite the line, not because of them. The best protection Brady had all day was throwing the ball quickly or tiring out the D-line with long drives. Oh, and the running game was mediocre, again testament to how poorly the O-line played.

The real defensive star of this game was coach Matt Patricia (more on him later). But among players, it had to be defensive lineman Trey Flowers, who tied for the team lead with six tackles and had 2.5 sacks (for 26.5 yards in losses), two tackles for loss, and five QB hits all on his own. The rest of the line was invisible on the stat sheet, but Alan Branch played well stuffing the inside runs.

Linebacker Dont'a Hightower turned in the defensive play of the game, a strip-sack that gave the Patriots the ball and life in the game. The Patriots scored a touchdown on that possession, making it a one-score game. Other than that, it was a very weak game for the LBs. Elandon Roberts was out of position or overmatched much of the game and Rob Ninkovich couldn't cover the backs out of the backfield. The entire linebacking corps totaled seven tackles; a paltry number for a Patriots defense.

The defensive backs were a real mess for much of the game. But you can't disrespect them too much; they had 25 of the team's 44 tackles. Logan Ryan mostly covered Julio Jones and by game's end, Malcolm Butler had Taylor Gabriel. But the Pats changed coverage multiple times throughout the game, looking for something that worked. They never really shut down Atlanta. Every DB got beaten at some point; though each of them made important plays, too. And with the changes in coverage it's just too difficult to judge who played well without additional film study.

Special teams saw its share of ups and downs. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed an extra point and then screwed up a perfectly good onside kick. But he also booted two perfect kickoffs late in the game to pin the Falcons deep and give the Patriots a chance to comeback. In all, he forced five returns and the Falcons averaged just 8.4 yards per return. Oh, and that also speaks very well of the coverage teams.

The coaches had two stars and one underwhelming performance. First, head coach Bill Belichick deserves a lot of credit for not panicking down by 25 points. He just kept his players focused on the task ahead and put his team in position to make progress toward a win.

On defense, Patricia's charges kickstarted the comeback with the strip-sack, and they held the Falcons scoreless for the final 23+ minutes. His defenses always get stingier as the game goes on, and it's a puzzlement why he doesn't get more head-coaching buzz than offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

Speaking of McDaniels, he had a poor game for three quarters. His last play-call of the first half was just plain strange (screen pass to Bennett with 11-seconds on the clock). And once again, he got schooled for most of the game by a seasoned NFL defensive coordinator. McDaniels is good at putting together a game plan, but if his first plan doesn't work, it takes him too long to adjust to Plan B.

One last note on the coaching, the Patriots are not Super Bowl champs today without a big mistake by the Falcons coaches. Atlanta had the ball on the Pats 22 yard-line with a first down and 4:40 left in the game. If they take a knee three times, it either runs the clock or takes all of the Pats timeouts. And then they can kick a field goal for a two-score lead.

It's head coaching malpractice to pass the ball there. But that's what they did; leading to a 12-yard sack, a holding call, and eventually, a punt back to the Pats with a one-score lead.

So where does that leave us? Super Bowl Champs, natch! The off-season will start soon enough, but for now, this was a great game that will merit much discussion. And the other discussions will be about where Brady, Belichick, and the Patriots dynasty rank among the all-time greats. In other words, it'll be your favorite week ever!

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: James White, who merited serious MVP consideration.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots are the Super Bowl team to run more than twice as many plays as their opponent. Their 93-46 ratio is the most lopsided in Super Bowl history.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The NFL should stop hating on the Pats and put them in the Super Bowl every year. Every game they play there is great!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 17-2 & 3-0!

PPS. Trivia answer: Three years ago, I was at Gillette Stadium when the Patriots trailed the Peyton Manning-led Broncos 24-0 at halftime. A Denver fan said at the time: "No lead is safe; you guys have God playing quarterback." His hyperbole was not out of line -- the Patriots mounted a furious comeback to force overtime where they won the game. Until last night, that was the biggest comeback of Brady's career.

Patriots Super Bowl Preview

So it's finally here, Super Bowl LI, the game to end all games... until next year. Your Patriots take on the Atlanta Falcons in what promises to be a high-scoring affair.

Usually in this space you'd see an analysis of the last game the two teams played, with the most important question being if enough had changed to change the outcome. However, the Pats and Falcons last met on the field in September of 2013 -- 28 months ago. And that game will have little bearing on this one; most of the starters are gone on both teams, and the Falcons have an entirely new coaching staff.

So here is a breakdown of what to expect when each team has the ball, key players in each phase of the game, some additional factors, and a completely useless prediction.

When the Patriots have the ball

The Patriots offense can do whatever it wants. Atlanta ranked 11th in yards allowed per pass, 22nd in defensive passer rating, 25th in yards allowed per rush, and were a surprising 27th in points allowed. It doesn't look like they'll be stopping the Patriots third-ranked scoring offense very often.

More interesting is how the Patriots will likely attack on offense. Some expect a heavy dose of heavy formations, with extra offensive linemen and tight ends and running back LeGarrette Blount. Others predict a balance of run-pass, with James White and Dion Lewis running from the spread formation while Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett work the short passing zones.

Atlanta's speed in the secondary makes long passes dangerous, unless they can draw up the safeties in run support. So expect Patriots to play it safe in the first quarter to avoid an early turnover. They will switch between the two ball-control strategies until they see what Falcons head coach Dan Quinn does on defense.

Once they see how Atlanta plays it, the Pats will go to whatever gives them the best match-ups against that defense. That is when the game really begins.

Key Patriots Player: running back Dion Lewis or running back LeGarrette Blount
Key Falcons Player: linebacker Vic Beasley

When the Falcons have the ball

Atlanta's offense is exactly the kind has historically given Patriots fits: a balanced attack with multiple weapons. The Falcons run the ball effectively, quarterback Matt Ryan can use short or long passes to three or four talented receivers who can turn a short pass into a long touchdown in the blink of an eye.

Atlanta led the league in points per game, average yards per pass, QB rating, and passes of 40+ yards. They have three gifted receivers who are hard to cover, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Taylor Gabriel. Their two-back-attack keeps their running backs fresh, and Ryan is the presumptive 2016 MVP.

Despite the two-man running attack, Atlanta won't likely run much on the Patriots. New England ranked eighth in yards allowed per rush, and their disciplined defense will force the cutback runners to hesitate so the rest of the defense can rally to the ball.

Atlanta will make hay with throws over the middle to their second- and third-best receivers. The Patriots usually neutralize the other team's best weapon (in this case, Jones), so Sanu and Gabriel will have to beat man-coverage or find holes in the zone quickly.

The Patriots will likely play safety Patrick Chung close to the line to help with the run and cover the tight end and/or running backs. His ability to diagnose run/pass quickly will be put to the test, as the defense could be undermanned against either tactic if he is out of position.

Key Falcons Player: receiver Mohamed Sanu
Key Patriots Player: safety Patrick Chung

Quick Hits

A) The Patriots own a marked advantage kick coverage. The Falcons allowed almost twice as many yards per punt return (9.6 to 5.0) on the season. And they gave up over three yards of field position to the Pats on kickoffs (average opponent starting yard-line: 22.6 vs.19.3).

B) Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski did have an off year, so Atlanta's Matt Bryant outperformed him in field goals and extra points.

C) In the NFC Championship Game, the Falcons had two false start penalties, a defensive offsides, and a botched snap. Those are all signs the moment was a bit to big for them; and the spotlight will be even brighter this Sunday.

D) In 2016, the Patriots gave up the fewest first-quarter points in the NFL (1.9 average), whereas the Falcons scored the second-most first-quarter points (8.6). It'll be strength vs. strength for the first 15 minutes.

E) A close game late favors the Patriots: they gave up an average of 5.1 points per fourth quarter (5th) and Atlanta gave up an average of 9.4 points per fourth quarter (31st).

Prediction

Neither team will stop the other cold, but the Patriots defense is better-suited to stop Atlanta at least some of the time. And if the Pats score on 75% of their possessions and the Falcons score on only 60%, that's a win for the Patriots.

Additionally, turnovers are key in the postseason, and Atlanta's younger, less experienced players are more likely to give the ball away.

Patriots win: 34-23.

Enjoy the game!

- Scott

PS. 16-2 & 2-0!

Patriots Crush Steelers To Advance To Super Bowl

The Patriots ran the Steelers defense out of the building last night, beating them 36-17 to advance to face the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI(ar). The game wasn't even as close as the score would indicate, as the Patriots scored more points on Sunday than the Steelers scored in two games against New England this season.

It's tough to choose whether the offense or defense had a better game. The Pats scored on 7 of 9 "real" possessions, and put up the most points allowed by Pittsburgh this season. And the defense held the Steelers to 9 points through 57 minutes of playing time, and their 17 total points were their lowest total since November 6.

As is sometimes the case, there are too many superlatives to go over every position group. So here are five things to know in five categories.

Offense

Quarterback Tom Brady destroyed Pittsburgh once again. In addition to his great stats yesterday (32 of 42, 384 yards [Patriots playoff record], 3 touchdowns, 0 INTs, and a 127.5 QB rating), he moved well in the pocket to buy time and nailed every open receiver right between the numbers. He is 8-2 lifetime against the Steelers with 27 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

Running back LeGarrette Blount didn't do as much damage in this game as he did the last time they played Pittsburgh, but his 47 yards rushing included one where he carried the entire Steelers defense five yards and almost scored a touchdown. (Note: he scored on the next play, so it was all good.)

James Devlin caught one pass for 13 yards but most importantly he converted an important third-down on the drive that eventually led to a touchdown that salted away the game at 27-9.

The entire offensive line improved markedly over the last game. They gave up just one bad sack and three QB hits in the game. And at least three times Brady held the ball for five-plus seconds without the Pittsburgh defense laying a glove on him.

Notable was the Patriots offense committed just one penalty in the game. This against a very active front-seven that usually draws a few holds or "hands to the face" penalties every game. Nice discipline by everyone on offense.

Receivers

Chris Hogan set a Pats playoff record with 180 yards, and he did it on just nine catches, for a 20-yard per-catch average. He also hauled in two touchdowns, including one on a beautiful flea-flicker.

Julian Edelman's eight catches for 118 yards and a touchdown were nothing to sneeze at, either. As he usually does, he also converted a high percentage of those catches into first downs, five of them this week. He's also seventh in NFL history with 84 postseason receptions.

Tight end Martellus Bennett had a quiet game statistically, but he is really gutting it out on what is reportedly a broken bone in his ankle. The team has very few tight end options behind Bennett, and he still managed to block well downfield and make five catches on five targets for 32 yards.

Brady completed 78% of his throws, due mostly to receivers finding holes in the defense but also because they caught everything thrown their way.

A quick thank you to the Steelers receivers, who dropped two touchdown passes and had just one touchdown reception on the day.

Defense

Defensive ends Malcom Brown, Alan Branch, Vincent Valentine, and linebacker Dont'a Hightower stopped the Steelers running game cold. And the key to beating Pittsburgh is always to make them one-dimensional.

Safety Patrick Chung stuffed several running plays at the line of scrimmage, stopped a receiver at the half-yard line (saving the Patriots four points), and broke up a pass that forced a Steelers punt -- and the Pats scored a touchdown to make it 27-9 on the ensuing drive.

Corner Malcolm Butler virtually shut down Pittsburgh's star receiver, Antonio Brown. Brown had over half his seven catches against zones, and Butler battled him every play for every yard all night long.

Fellow corner Eric Rowe had a surprising bounce-back game, making four tackles, breaking up two passes, and nabbing his third NFL interception, first in the playoffs.

Linebacker Kyle Van Noy spelled Hightower to keep him fresh and forced a fumble that Rob Ninkovich recovered.

Special Teams/Coaching

Jonathan Jones had two spectacular special teams tackles. The first was a big hit on a kickoff return, and the second was a diving tackle of Antonio Brown on a play where he would have gained another 20 yards if not for Jones.

Punter Ryan Allen averaged ten more yards per punt than his counterpart on the Steelers (48.5 to 38.5).

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels gets kudos for the plan to abandon the run and just pass, pass, pass all game long. He also called for the up-tempo attack that wore out Pittsburgh's defense and allowed the Patriots to run them out of the building. And of course, he called the flea-flicker at the perfect time.

In their last seven games, the Patriots have given up an average of just 5.8 points in the second half. Credit defensive coordinator Matt Patricia for that, and wonder aloud why he gets less interest as a head coach than McDaniels.

Often overlooked, long snapper Joe Cardona finished of a great campaign with another flawless performance.

Negatives

Corner Logan Ryan was as bad in this game as he was great against Houston. He led the team with nine tackles, but mostly because his man caught the ball over and over again.

Stephen Gostkowski missed yet another extra point. Maybe he will fare better in the dome during the Super Bowl.

Malcolm Mitchell's first playoff game was forgettable. He caught one pass and allowed another one to slip through is fingers on third-down, forcing the Patriots to settle for a field goal.

Elandon Roberts was mostly a non-factor against the run, even though he run-blitzed a fair amount in the game.

The Patriots defense had no sacks and just one QB hit in the game. They did force one or two throws to come out early, but they just didn't generate enough pressure on the quarterback.

When you bring a Weather God to the game, you expect better than 40s and rain... just sayin'



(Just kidding, Al!)

So where does that leave us? The Patriots need two things to compete effectively in Super Bowl LI(ar): a healthier Martellus Bennett, and a faster offensive start after the bye week than they had against Houston.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Hogan's stellar day made him the man of the hour.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: It has to be that the Patriots now hold the record for most Super Bowl appearances (9) in the history of any franchise. Who would have predicted that when they went 1-15 in 1990?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Can we play Pittsburgh in the playoffs every year?"

Keep the faith!

- Scott

PS. 16-2 & 2-0!