Patriots Super Bowl 52 Preview

One week to go until the big game, and I have a confession to make: I haven't seen the Eagles play this year. Life circumstances and time constraints make this the first time I'll publish a preview of the Super Bowl without at least seeing the opponent in the NFC Championship Game. So please take what you are about to read with a grain -- make that two grains -- of salt.

The Bison In The Room

Philadelphia's starting quarterback in the Super Bowl won't be the guy who started the season, former North Dakota State University star Carson Wentz ("Go Bisons!"). Wentz was on his way to a possible MVP when he was injured against the LA Rams and placed on season-ending injured reserve. So it'll be Nick Foles at the helm on Sunday.

It's been four seasons since Foles' breakout campaign in 2013 (27 touchdowns, 2 interceptions). And the results haven't been great since then: 58.8% completions, 6.43 yards per attempt, 28 TDs, 22 INTs, a 78.1 QB rating, and a 13-10 record (including 2-1 this year). He is a streaky player, who thrives when things are going well and tightens up when they go poorly.

He can throw short but loves to throw long. Against the Patriots, he would be well-advised to keep the ball in the short zones, attacking the Patriots linebackers in pass coverage. The Eagles have two excellent tight ends and at least one receiver who are very good in the short zones. They don't throw much to their running backs; but they have the players to exploit the Pats weakness at linebacker.

The Pats secondary is much more talented and their safeties could feast on the long ball if Foles can't stick with short routes. So he must remain disciplined to give the Eagles a shot.

Can The Eagles Stop The G.O.A.T.?

Philadelphia had the ninth-best passing defense in the league, as measured by giving up just a 79.5 QB rating to all quarterbacks they faced this year. But they didn't face anyone having a year close to what Tom Brady had in 2017.

To answer the question of whether Philly can slow down Brady, consider the AFC Championship Game. Jacksonville led the league by allowing just a 68.5 QB rating by their combined opponents this year. And Brady torched them for a 108.4 rating, a higher rating than Jacksonville had given up in any regular-season game this year.

So it's nice that the Eagles have a good pass defense. But if Rob Gronkowski returns from concussion protocol, the Patriots have plenty of weapons to put the hurt on the Philly defense. Just ask Jacksonville.

Offensive Efficiency Dead Heat

If you think the Patriots are vastly superior to the Eagles on the offensive side, you might want to think again. Here are the two teams game statistics compared from the regular season.

• Points Scored: Patriots 458, Eagles 457
• Plays From Scrimmage: Eagles 1,073, Patriots 1,070
• Third-down Conversions: Eagles 42%, Patriots 41%
• Fourth-down Conversions: Eagles 65%, Patriots 62%

It is true that many of these stats were put up by Wentz, not Foles. But still pretty amazing to see such a close race between the two teams.

Coaching Mismatch A Lot More Than Experience

It's pretty easy to look at the head coaches and see a huge disparity. Philadelphia's Doug Pederson has coached two playoff games, and in fairness, he won them both (the last two weeks). Bill Belichick has coached 38 playoff games and won 28 of them.

Everyone knows Belichick will leave no stone unturned in his preparation and that he will not panic under any circumstances in the game. No one really knows what Pederson will do before or during the game on Sunday.

But the additional mismatch is the coordinators. Pats DC Matt Patricia and OC Josh McDaniels are reportedly gone after the season, taking head coaching jobs with the Lions and Colts, respectively. So neither of them has any reason to leave any bullets unfired in this game. If they have an exotic blitz or a special offensive play, they might as well use it in this game -- because next year they will be gone.

Interestingly, this is the exact situation as the last time the Pats and Eagles played in the Super Bowl. Back then it was Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis leaving after the big game. And both came up with masterful gameplans and stellar adjustments to changing game situations. (Trivia question: name the coaches who replaced Weis and Crennel at their respective positions for the 2005 season. Answer below.)

Quick Hits:

A) Gronkowski participated in practice today and appears on schedule to return for the Super Bowl.

B) The Patriots will likely test the Philly kickoff return game. The Pats kicked it inside the five yard-line against most teams, whereas the Eagles had the fewest kickoff returns in the league this year (18).

C) The thinking seems to be that Philly needs to get pressure with their front four; but that won't be easy. The Eagles had a middling pass rush this year, getting 38 sacks on the season, tied for 15th in the NFL.

D) The Eagles did have a stout run defense though, giving up an average of 3.8 yards per carry (tied for 6th in the league). Meanwhile the Pats gave up 4.7ypc, second-worst in the league.

Statistical Oddity: Under Belichick, the Patriots have played 15 teams in the playoffs that they had not faced in that regular season. They are 15-0 in those games. 15-0! (Credit to fivethirtyeight.com, sorry for the repeat for those on Twitter and Facebook.)

Water-cooler Wisdom: "The team might think of this as a business trip, but I'm nervous as hell!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 15-3 & 2-0!

PPS. Trivia answer:

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
In 2005, Eric Mangini replaced Crennel as defensive coordinator. But no offensive coordinator was named -- I know, trick question :P

Patriots Advance To Super Bowl With 24-20 Win Over Jaguars

The Pats capped their fourth-quarter comeback with a 24-20 win over Jacksonville Sunday. The victory put them in the Super Bowl for an NFL record tenth time, and another NFL record eighth time for head coach Bill Belichick and quaterback Tom Brady. More on the Eagles soon, but first, Sunday's win...

You've no doubt heard a lot of analysis already (sorry this is late), but there are a few tidbits that haven't been mentioned much. (1) For every Danny Amendola great catch, there were equally great throws. (2) The Patriots made outstanding halftime adjustments. (3) How/Why Jacksonville went conservative and then blew it under pressure at the end.

Without Amendola the Patriots do not win this game. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was ruled out of the game with a concussion in the first half, and usually dependable James White had two drops, one of which he allowed to be knocked away with poor technique. Chris Hogan didn't appear to be himself, and Brandin Cooks was fine on deep routes but sub-average on short ones. Add to all that the lack of a running game, and it was mostly Amendola keeping the chains moving in the second half.

The Pats receiver had just two catches (for 28 yards) in the three quarters, including one on the critically important touchdown before the half. But in the last 15 minutes, he had the 21-yard grab on third-and-18 grab for a first down. A diving grab for another first down inches from the ground. And then the ridiculous back of the endzone Spiderman catch where his barely got the second foot down as he floated out of bounds.

Two drives later, Amendola returned a punt 20 yards to the Jacksonville 30, and it appeared all but preordained that the Patriots were going to score and win. Two more completions to Amendola, and it was Patriots 24-20, and the ballgame. Without his contribution, the Pats would not be in the Super Bowl.

And none of this is meant to minimize how well Tom Brady played, especially with his 12 stitches in his right hand. A few of his early throws weren't up to his usual standards, particularly the touch throws to the flat. But once he got rolling in the second half, he was as accurate as he's been all year.

Four of the throws on their first fourth-quarter touchdown were outstanding. His dart to Amendola on third-and-18, down low where only his receiver could get it, but high enough to get over the defensive line. He followed that up with a quick-snap flea flicker (hand off to James White, who pitched it back to Brady). And he put that pass right on the money where Phillip Dorsett could leap up to make the play over the defender.

After that, his pass over the middle near the end zone, where he waited an extra half-beat and then threw about one inch past the defender where Amendola could only get it -- an absolutely unfair throw! And even the touchdown to Amendola, where he waited for the short routes to clear, stepped up to avoid pressure, and put it where there was no risk of a turnover but his receiver could make a play; what a brilliant throw.

Then there were the halftime adjustments. Reportedly the Patriots had to throw out 80% of their offensive game plan when Gronkowski was injured. So they mostly scrapped the running game and worked enough of the sideline to open up some throws over the middle later in the second half. It helped that Jacksonville played more zone, but that doesn't explain the increased production on its own.

The first half defense was just plain bad. They lost outside contain on multiple running plays, allowed the quarterback to complete 87% of his passes and convert 67% of the third downs, and barely grazed him beyond the one sack they had.

In the second half, it was different. They brought pressure, and pressure from odd places and strange angles. They got burned early on a delayed blitz up the middle, so they came with outside corner- and safety-blitzes that flustered the young QB. These also came in handy when the Jags tried to run outside, bring an extra defender to hold the edge or blow up the play.

In the last 30 minutes, Jacksonville averaged only 2.7 yards per carry and went 10 of 21 passing. The Patriots had figured them out, and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia once again shut down a team in the second half. He has a habit of doing that -- the Pats gave up an average of 8.3 points in the second half of games this year. And that tendency will be missed when he's gone (reportedly the new head coach in Detroit after the Super Bowl).

Which leads us directly to how Jacksonville lost the game. First, after a dominant first half, they only led by four points. They had a delay of game coming out of a Patriots timeout (what?!), which negated a first-down gain and forced them to punt with about 2:00 left. And of course, the Patriots scored a touchdown easily against the Jags prevent defense.

Then, to compound the mistake, they knelt on the ball with 0:55 left and two timeouts! The Patriots would never have done that, and I'm sure Belichick was grateful that Jacksonville didn't go for the knockout touchdown or at least a field goal.

In the second half, the Jaguars were way too conservative on offense, with too many first-down runs. They ran on first down five times on seven second-half possessions, for a grand total of four yards. They needed to stick with short throws over the middle to attack the vulnerable Patriots linebackers. But they apparently thought the game was in hand, especially given that their defense was one of the league's best this year.

In retrospect, that was an obvious mistake.

Other stand-out performances:

• Kyle Van Noy, who had 9 tackles, 1 sack (for 9 yards), a pass defended, and a forced fumble. Their only good linebacker had a good game.
• Dion Lewis: 32 yards receiving and 34 yards rushing, including 18 big yards to ice the game.
• Brandin Cooks had 100 yards receiving and 68 yards on two penalties against the Jaguars defense.
• Phillip Dorsett, who not only had a 31-yard reception but did a great job chipping the Jacksonville ends to slow their pass rush.
• Stephon Gilmore, with five tackles and two huge passes defended (including a late one to give the ball back to the Patriots).
• Trey Flowers, except for the time he lost outside contain on a 10+ yard Jacksonville run.
• James Harrison, but only when they had him rushing the passer and not against the run.

So where does that leave us? In the Super Bowl, baby! Gronkowski is in the concussion protocol and Brady's hand is still healing. Those are the only real unknowns; so enjoy the two weeks!

Biggest on-going concern: Back to the linebackers in pass coverage.

The Eagles won't attack them with running backs, but they have two good tight ends and at least one wideout (Alshon Jeffery) who can exploit the Pats linebacking deficiencies with short crossing routes.

Non-Brady MVP: Amendola, a monster game.

Statistical Oddity: The difference between Jacksonville's first and second halves, courtesy Matt Patricia's defensive adjustments. (Note: numbers projected from each half to a full game, for easy comparison.)

First half projections

• Rushing: 34 for 120 yards (3.5 yards per carry)
• Passing: 26 of 30 (87%) for 310 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 sacks (12 yards), 131.9 rating
• Game Stats: 28 first downs, 8 of 12 on third down (67%), 4-4 in the red zone, 418 net yards

Second half projections

• Rushing: 30 for 82 yards (2.7ypc)
• Passing: 20 of 42 (47.6%) for 276 yards, 0 touchdowns, 6 sacks (40 yards), 69.1 rating
• Game Stats: 16 first downs, 4 of 18 on third down (22%), 0-0 in the red zone, 330 net yards
• 330 net yards

Bonus Statistical Oddity (courtesy of ESPN): Teams trailing by 10+ points in the 4th quarter of a playoff game in the last 10 seasons:

• Patriots: 3-4
• Rest of NFL: 3-70

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Gilmore signing was worth it just for that last play!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 15-3 & 2-0!

Pats Ice The Titans, 35-14

The Patriots did what they were supposed to do, crushing the Tennessee Titans 35-14 to advance to the AFC Championship Game next Sunday (3:05pm EST). This is more than we can say for the "Second Round Steelers," who failed to hold up their end of the bargain. So it'll be the Jacksonville Jaguars at Gillette with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

As for Saturday night's game, the Titans were completely overmatched. And it started with the opening coin-flip. The Patriots won the toss, but instead doing the usual thing and deferring to the second half, they took the ball. That meant the Titans chose the goal to defend, and they put the Patriots into the wind in the first quarter.

What this did was allow the Patriots to control the game by matching their style to the wind direction. In the first quarter, they only took about 6:00 off the clock, but they pinned the Titans back inside their own ten yard line for both of their "with the wind" possessions. So even though Tennessee scored first, they used the entire quarter to get one touchdown.

When the Pats got the wind in the second quarter, they went touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, while Tenn. went punt, punt, failed fourth-down conversion. This basically ended the game. However, even if it hadn't, the Titans got the ball first in the second half, but the Pats forced them to go into the wind, throwing the ball to catch up.

This was a master-course in how to manage game situations by Belichick. When the team had the wind, they went up-tempo and threw a lot. Against the wind, they kept the ball on the ground or threw short passes, and they used the entire play clock. Amazing strategy against a weak-armed quarterback. By the time the Titans got the wind in the fourth quarter, they were down 35-7. Game. Set. Match.

Speaking of quarterbacks, the Patriots guy played pretty well. Tom Brady completed 66% of his passes, including some pinpoint strikes in the red zone and a ridiculous cross-body, cross-field throw to Danny Amendola that fell right into his breadbasket. Brady controlled the line of scrimmage, audibiling to the perfect play time and again, and never once putting the ball in harm's way.

Amendola led the receivers in catches (11) and yards (112). He also did a fantastic job receiving punts on a very windy night, never bobbling a single one. The passing attack also featured running backs Dion Lewis and James White, with 9 catches for 79 yards, and 4 for 29 yards respectively. You had to know that was coming, as Tennessee was the worst team in the league versus pass-catching running backs.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski had 6 grabs for 81 yards, with a couple where he got position and Brady through it where the DB couldn't get to it. Gronk also did a nice job blocking for running plays, and helped protect the passer with some well-timed chips of outside rushers.

The biggest surprise of the game was the lack of pressure on Brady. The offensive line was outstanding, although aided and abetted by a defensive scheme that mostly sent three rushers. Brady was hit four times and sacked not once. And he had upwards of six or seven seconds on a few plays. Pair that with 4.3ypc by the running backs, and it was one of the best games this year for the O-line.

The running backs did well in the passing game, and showed explosion when needed in the running game. White scored two touchdowns (one running, one receiving), and Brandon Bolden had what must have been the easiest touchdown of his career to ice the game. (He ran untouched into the end zone, right up the middle of the defense.)

The second-biggest surprise of the game was the pressure applied by the Patriots defensive line. Here are the sack totals from that group:
Trey Flowers: 1 for 7 yards
Deatrich Wise: 2 for 12 yards
Geneo Grissom: 2 for 12 yards
Adam Butler: 1 for 5 yards
Ricky Jean Francois: 1 for 8 yards

Grissom was the emotional spark, firing up the team after some near-miss sacks (before he got two). And Butler should get credit for two of the other sacks, as he flushed Marcus Mariotta out of the pocket so others could get the on the stat sheet. It was a shockingly dominant performance; the unit even added 9 of the 10 QB hits!

It was nice to get linebacker Kyle Van Noy back. They didn't need him much to cover the running backs (they aren't much of a pass receiving threat), but it will help for him to have reps before facing a tougher Jacksonville squad this Sunday.

In the defensive backfield, the safeties worked to keep things in front of them, but there were some communication breakdowns. Corner Stephon Gilmore had the only two passes defended in the game, and it was unsettling to see some of the Titans wideouts running free. Fortunately they had enough drops to make up for it.

Punter Ryan Allen led the special teams units. Not only did he pin back the Titans early, but he handled at least one bad snap on a field goal/extra point attempt. Stephen Gostkowski continued his stellar use of the short-but-high kickoff to keep teams inside their own 20 yard line.

However, there were at least three bad long-snaps from Joe Cardona. Allen handled all three, two of which were on punts, and it might have owed to the frigid conditions. It was not a problem Saturday, but something to keep an eye on moving forward.

The coaching was a complete mismatch. The Patriots were cool and calm and stayed within their game plan. The Titans looked lost, called timeouts when they should have held onto them, and had 10 penalties for 62 yards.

A sequence at the end of the first half was particularly telling. They gained 9 yards to give themselves a fourth-and-1 (really a half-yard) near midfield. Coach (now former coach) Mike Mularkey decided, correctly, to go for it. But he burned his last timeout before the play... however, if the Titans ran for the first down, he would have needed that timeout to stop the clock again or lose any realistic chance to score.

And then after the timeout, they promptly ran a wide toss to the left... which of course lost five yards and gave the ball back to the Pats. He was clearly overmatched, and Tennessee fired him today as a result. (And they have their eye on Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, by the way.)

So where does that leave us? Another AFC Championship Game sounds just about right. It's their seventh in a row and twelfth of the Brady/Belichick era. Unfortunately for us, it'll be warm -- Florida teams don't do well in January when the thermometer dips into the teens.

Biggest on-going issue It is no longer the linebackers, simply because the teams that could have exploited their weakness in pass coverage all lost this weekend (Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Atlanta).

It is actually team focus at this point. The Patriots are excellent at ignoring the noise. But with both coordinators likely gone, maybe the heir apparent DC gone (linebackers coach Brian Flores), and with all the crap about Brady, Belichick, Kraft, and the TB12 stuff, I'm actually worried about focus.

I do think the release of a Patriots hit-piece the morning of the Super Bowl in 2008 affected their focus. And they lost that game by three points, so it could have cost them another title and a perfect season.

We all expect them to keep their focus, and they probably will. But on the field, there just isn't much to worry about at this point. All the high-flying offenses are gone, and the Patriots are clearly the best team remaining in the field.

Non-Brady MVP: Amendola, a great game!

Statistical Oddity: The Patriots are going to their seventh straight AFC Championship Game. No other team in the NFL has a current streak of at least seven straight winning seasons. Think about that for a second...

Water-cooler Wisdom: "At least the Titans fired their coach for malpractice... what's the Steelers' excuse?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 14-3 & 1-0!

Patriots 2017 Regular Season Awards

Yep; it's that time of year, folks. Time to reflect on the best the Patriots had to offer in the 2017 season... before we move forward to the up-coming playoff run!

Here are my regular-season awards for the 2017 season. (Note: lighter on the text and research this year; just don't have the time I used to have.)

Most Valuable Offensive Player: Rob Gronkowski
Honorable Mention: Tom Brady and Dion Lewis

Brady has won this award 10 times in 12 years, but this season, Gronkowski was even more valuable than Brady. Sure, you can make the argument that the QB is always the most valuable player. For the counter to that argument, go back and watch the second Miami game, when Gronk sat. The offense completely stagnated.

Gronkowski was also the third-best run blocker on the entire team (after an offensive lineman and a blocking back who does nothing else). And when he's blocking well, it opens gaping holes for the backs. Haven't seen Brady do that in a while ;)

With Julian Edelman out for the year and Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, and Danny Amendola missing significant time, the team simply wouldn't be anywhere near a playoff bye without Gronkowski.

Gronk barely edged out Brady, who had a down year and will only win the MVP this season :D

Lewis gets honorable mention for much the same reason as Gronk; the other injuries made it essential that he step up -- and he did, big time!

Most Improved Offensive Player: Dion Lewis
Honorable Mention: Shaq Mason and James Develin

Lewis tripled his carries and running yards, double his catches and receiving yards, and score six touchdowns versus zero last year. Without Edelman the team depended more on running backs in the passing game. And Lewis not only came through in that area, but his ability to make the first tackler miss kept the chains moving and drives alive all year.

Mason was a beast in run blocking and was the most dependable O-lineman this year. This award could have gone to center David Andrews, but he missed a few games, thus limiting the most important ability of all: dependability.

Develin was one of the best blockers on the team this year, and even caught a few passes to boot!

Offensive Newcomer of the Year: Rex Burkhead and Brandin Cooks
Honorable Mention: None

This is a tough choice. Cooks was more consistently productive (65 catches, 1082 yards, and 7 touchdowns), while Burkhead had a big impact in the few games he played (8 touchdowns in 10 games).

Cooks would have this award to himself if he would fight more for the ball, not quit on routes, and been willing to sacrifice comfort for some important catches. He wasn't a bad player, but his impact was felt in about as many games as Burkhead's was. So it's a tie.

Most Valuable Defensive Player: Trey Flowers
Honorable Mention: Kyle Van Noy

Flowers led the defensive linemen in tackles, led the team with 6.5 sacks, and added 2 forced fumbles. He also played some linebacker when the team was thin there, and was easily the Pats most consistent defender this season.

To understand Van Noy's value, just watch the linebacker play in games he missed. And also consider that he was third on the team in tackles, even though he essentially missed four entire games.

Most Improved Defensive Player: Van Noy
Honorable Mention: None

Van Noy started twice as many games and had over twice as many tackles, and added in 5.5 sacks (after notching just 1.0 last year).

Defensive Newcomer of the Year: Deatrich Wise, Jr.
Honorable Mention: Stephon Gilmore

Wise, Jr. gets the nod almost by default. Five sacks in your rookie year isn't half bad; and he will make an able replacement for Alan Branch when they cut his ass in February.

Gilmore came in with high hopes, but had just two interceptions and took over half the season to learn the defense. But he was okay enough to get an honorable mention.

Most Valuable Special Teams Player: Stephen Gostkowski
Honorable Mention: Ryan Allen

Gostkowski had by far the most kickoffs returned (58 versus 46 for the second-most), and that was by design. He kicked high and short so other teams would have to return the kick instead of taking the ball at the 25 yard line on a touchback. And it worked like a charm. The Pats were third in the league, with opponents starting at the 18.6 yards line on average.

Note #1 for the playoffs: all of Gostkowski's missed field goals were between 40-49 yards this year. So maybe go for it on fourth down if that's the situation... just sayin'. Note #2: please have him practice onside kicks; it's the one real flaw in his game.

I have no stats to back up my choice of Allen. But stats don't tell the whole story when the offense always has you punting from near midfield. I just remember the game where three punts in a row were inside the other team's five yard-line, and I think he deserves honorable mention just for that game.

Most Improved Special Teams Player: None
Honorable Mention: Gostkowski and Allen

If there was a seriously improved player, I must have missed it. Gostkowski and Allen get the honorable mention because both slightly improved over last year.

Special Teams Newcomer of the Year: Johnson Bademosi
Honorable Mention: None

Bademosi had 24 tackles on the year, and it felt like half of them were on special teams. (Wait, not sure that's a good thing.)

That is all for now. Enjoy the prep time for the Titans game, and keep an eye out for my pre-game breakdown!

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 13-3 & 0-0!

Patriots Cruise to 26-6 Win Over Jets

The Patriots made it look easy, waltzing to a 26-6 win and clinching home-field throughout the AFC playoffs. The game gives them not only a week off before their playoff run begins, but means that if they win one more game, the AFC Championship Game will be in Foxboro on January 21! Next week... there will be lots of football watching as the Pats next opponent will be revealed.

So not a ton to learn from this game. The Jets dropped enough passes for an entire month of games, committed a series of stupid defensive penalties, and toward the end just plain gave up on tackling anyone. Looks like they had early tee-times scheduled for tomorrow and wanted to get out of frigid Foxboro.

The running game took center stage, which is odd because they had more backs inactive (3) than active (2). Dion Lewis led the attack with 26 carries for 93 yards, while special teams stalwart Brandon Bolden had 9 carries for 46 yards. Bolden's carries mostly came late, and he plowed and barreled through the whipped Jets defense.

It was Lewis who wore them down, making the first tackler miss multiple times, delaying his runs while blockers got in position, and bursting through seemingly non-existent holes. He had an outstanding year, leading the team in rushing yards and averaging 5.0 ypc. He also had 32 catches for another 200+ yards. Not bad for the smallest guy on the team.

The receivers didn't impress much. Brandin Cooks led the team with 79 yards (5 catches), but he cost the team at least two long completions (one when he didn't fight for the ball and one where he slowed the route prematurely). He also obviously didn't want to hit the ground on a sideline pass, and that cost him the chance to get two feet in bounds for another catch. Aside from that; Phillip Dorsett made a nice grab and the rest of the receivers were invisible.

TB12 only got sacked twice, and both times were coverage sacks. He did a decent job, with a lower-than-average completion percentage. But he had two touchdowns and no INTs on a cold and windy day, which is probably all you can ask.

The O-line obviously did a decent job, keeping Brady mostly clean and doing a nice job of run blocking. Shaq Mason continued his great year, and tight end Rob Gronkowski contributed more blocking than in the pass game (0 catches on 0 targets).

The defense really just waited for the Jets to implode. There were so many dropped passes and seven three-and-outs. The Pats only made 47 tackles for the game, to the Jets 69, which tells you about the offensive efficiency of each team.

The defensive line looked dominant against the pathetic Jets O-line. Lawrence Guy and Trey Flowers were solid all game, and newcomer James Harrison notched five total tackles and two sacks (on consecutive plays).

Linebacker? Don't ask. Kyle Van Noy returned for a few plays, but he barely saw the field, made no notable plays, and ended up a stat-sheet no-show (zero tackles or other defensive plays). If Van Noy can't play in the post-season, this is clearly their weakest position on the field. A time-bomb waiting to explode on them if the Steelers or an NFC foe can figure out to attack their short coverage zones.

No report on the secondary; the Jets dropped so many passes that it's impossible to give them a grade.

Special teams had two standouts; punter Ryan Allen and gunner Matthew Slater. In the fourth quarter, Ryan had three punts. Two were downed at the four yard-line by Slater, one of which was converted into a safety a few plays later. And one skipped out of bounds at the three yard-line. That's a good season for some punters, so having it all in one quarter is very impressive.

So where does that leave us? A week off isn't a bad thing at this point in the season. If you're religious, pray for Van Noy's health; he'd be the biggest returning player we could get (with Edelman out of the picture). Enjoy watching the Patriots next foe get the snot kick out of it this weekend and try to stay warm.

Biggest On-going Issue: It is, and will likely always remain the linebackers. Still not enough pass coverage ability in that group; expect to see safety Patrick Chung in the hybrid role the entire playoffs.

Non-Brady MVP: (tie) Lewis and Allen. Not every day you can include a punter. Although I did consider giving it to the Jets receivers.

Statistical Oddity: Tom Brady now has more career touchdowns (488) than the top four Jets quarterbacks combined. (Stole this one from the television broadcast.)

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Remember when the Pats were 2-2 and the sky was falling?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 13-3!

Patriots Top Steelers 27-24 In Wildest Finish This Season

Games like this are why we keep coming back to the NFL. The Patriots barely eked out a 27-24 win in Pittsburgh yesterday, sealing the win with an interception in the end zone! The victory won them the division, and most importantly, gave them the inside track on the overall #1 playoff seed in the AFC. Next week the Buffalo Bills visit Foxboro, with the Pats needing a win to keep their playoff status in their own hands.

Pittsburgh changed up their defensive scheme this week, playing more man coverage and rushing just four players at Tom Brady. It's notable because they haven't done much different over the years, but it appears they finally figured out that a soft zone isn't the way to slow down the Patriots offense. The plan worked pretty well for most of the game, but in the second half the Pats beat that coverage by going to all-universe tight end Rob Gronkowski for big chunk plays.

But in the end, it was the Steelers incompetence that cost them the win. The Patriots scored 11 straight points to take a three-point lead. But Pittsburgh roared back, riding a long reception to a first-down at the Pats ten-yard line, with a chance to tie with a field goal or win with a touchdown. Then the wheels fell off:

• An apparent touchdown was apparently bobbled as tight end Jesse James went to the ground, so it was ruled incomplete upon review.
• A pass to receiver Darius Heyward-Bey was short of the end zone, but Heyward-Bey didn't get out of bounds, so the clock continued to run.
• QB Ben Roethlisberger rushed his team to the line for one last shot at a touchdown before a field goal attempt for the tie.
• Instead of throwing a fade (as suggested by commentator Tony Romo at the time), Roethlisberger tried to hit a man over the middle. The pass was broken up by Pats corner Eric Rowe, and intercepted by safety Duron Harmon.

It's not the worst loss in the annals of the league; but it shows once again that unprepared teams have trouble closing out games against prepared ones. The Steelers have more talent on the field, but they didn't close out a home game because they got too conservative with a chance to run clock and they melted down when a busted play gave them a chance to end it in regulation.

It certainly wasn't all sunshine and rainbows for the Patriots. They should always have been ready for the change in defensive scheme, but it took about 35 minutes of game time to figure out how to attack it. They went 3-of-9 on third-down conversions, which makes them 3-of-20 in their last two games (looks like a 15% success rate). That has to change if they expect to succeed in the playoffs. And of course, they missed another extra point, although this one was more on the long-snapper than kicker Stephen Gostkowski.

However, it's always hard to argue with the results. Even head coach Bill Belichick seemed to bend to the gravity of the situation, going for a fourth-down conversion on the first drive of the second half because he knew field goals probably wouldn't do it on a day like this. So without delving in too deep, here are some ups and downs from the game.

Brady didn't play his best game, but he bounced back in style. His long throws were mostly money yesterday; he completed them to receiver Brandin Cooks and Gronkowski. Gronk had two catches for 33 yards in the first half but caught fire (and everything thrown his way) in the second half: 7 grabs for 155 yards. And he made an amazing catch leaning down to snag the ball just inches from the ground.

Defensive lineman Trey Flowers was obviously what they were missing on defense. Five tackles, 0.5 sacks, and three QB hits tell you he was disruptive. And he barely missed several other sacks, including a strip-sack that Roethlisberger barely worked out of.

On the other hand, linebacker Elandon Roberts was obviously not what they were missing on defense. He read run correctly on multiple plays where he either rushed the wrong lane or whiffed on the tackle. He did make a play or two, but his inconsistency really hurts with the team down so much talent at LB. Probably no one ever thought "If we could just get Kyle Van Noy back" would be a rallying cry, but... well, here we are.

In the secondary, corner Stephon Gilmore did pretty well in coverage, but his run force leaves a lot to be desired. And safety Devin McCourty had probably his worst game of the year; taking bad angles on a few long running plays and providing just about nothing in the way of help for his corners. Not a good day for the secondary, especially when you consider the up-and-down performances of corners Malcolm Butler and Eric Rowe. (Although I did like the performance of safety Patrick Chung.)

The coaches simply took too long to get untracked. Once they started exploiting Gronkowski in man coverage the offense started humming. But it took until the half, when it should have been implemented in the second quarter.

So where does that leave us? 11-3 and atop the AFC, sorta rhymes, doesn't it? If the Pats win out, then the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC runs through Foxboro. And it would probably help if you gave your 40 year-old quarterback an extra week of rest toward the end of the season.

Biggest On-going Issue: It could always be the linebackers, but the lack of receiving threats is starting to concern me. Yesterday Gronkowski (9) and Cooks (4) were the only Pats players with more than two receptions. The team needs more production out of Amendola and the running backs, just to make other teams defend more players.

It was good to see newcomer Kenny Britt make a contribution. And it was also nice to see he was upset with himself for not getting the first down on his one reception. But his limited time with the playbook and the team makes him an unlikely candidate to step up in any meaningful way.

Non-Brady MVP: Gronkowski. Without his ability to get separation and make circus catches, the Pats wouldn't have been close enough to win at the end.

Statistical Oddity: Rob Gronkowski continued his success against Pittsburgh yesterday. His average in six games against them is: 6.5 catches, 111 yards, 22.8 yards per catch, 1.3 touchdowns. Might want to double-team him someday -- maybe the next time you play. (Trivia question: name the only team against which Gronkowski has higher averages in three of those four categories; answer below.) 

Water-cooler Wisdom: "If you don't like the catch rule, talk to the NFL; but that was not a catch."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 11-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:

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In his one game against the Rams, Gronkowski had 8 catches for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Patriots Dominate 2nd Half, Win Going Away, 23-3

The Patriots annual pseudo-bye in Buffalo ended as it always does, with a Patriots win, this time 23-3 over the .500 Bills. The win opens up a four-game lead in the division with four games to go, though they haven't quite clinched the AFC East yet, due to tiebreakers. And pending the Pittsburgh Monday Night game, it will at least keep them tied with the Steelers for the AFC #1 playoff seed.

If there are horses for courses, the Patriots under Bill Belichick were built to dominate the Bills. Since the head coach arrived, the Pats are 35-5 against Buffalo, including 16-2 in Orchard Park! In fact, Tom Brady 14 wins in Buffalo ties him for the most by any QB in that stadium since 2001. And yes, that includes Bills QBs, even though they play there eight times a year and Brady only gets one shot at it a season. (Trivia question: Can you name the only Bills quarterback with 14 home wins since 2001? Answer below.)

As for yesterday's game, the Bills played tough for a half, limiting the number of possessions and holding the Patriots to nine points. But they had a very badly thrown (and badly timed) red zone interception on their opening drive, and their QB also overthrew a bunch of open receivers, while some receivers dropped passes right in their hands.

Then came the second half; which the Patriots won 14-0. In fact, for how close the game was early on, Belichick's charges scored on five of their first six possessions in the game. And even though the passing game was stalled, they ran for 130 yards in the first 30 minutes, not half bad.

The star of the game was tight end Rob Gronkowski. He had a couple of monster blocks in the running game, and also had nine catches for 147 yards. His performance proved once and for all what I've said for years: the Pats should run with Gronk blocking because it makes him soooo much more effective in the passing game. When defenders don't know if he fires off the line to block or to run a route, that moment of hesitation is all he and Brady need to gash them with either the run or pass. It's more unstoppable than flanking him out wide on a corner, and they should use it, frankly until he retires.

The other receivers were nondescript, with running backs totaling seven receptions and the rest of the team notching just five. Speaking of backs, Dion Lewis is just electric with the ball, forcing misses on first contact about 75% of the time. He had 92 yards on 15 carries, while fellow back Rex Burkhead got 78 yards on 12 carries. (Before you do the math, that is a very, very healthy 6.1 and 6.5 yards per carry, respectively.)

And the 191 yards on the ground illustrated the great performance of the offensive line. When they weren't committing penalties (three on the O-line, four total false-start penalties -- unacceptable!), Shaq Mason and David Andrews made great pull blocks and created gaps right up the middle or inside the tackles. Mason played his best game of the year, and even struggling Nate Solder did some nice work (though not consistent enough).

Brady was saved his usual pummeling because the run game was so effective. Buffalo had three sacks and five QB hits, and that total of eight hits is much lower than any of the last few games. His pedestrian 82.4 QB rating owes mostly to his one interception (which should have been nullified by three penalties on the Bills). But to complete 70% of his passes for the game after only 57% in the first half is testament to his improvement after the break.

The defense played very well, led by former Bills corner Stephon Gilmore and former Bills practice squad linebacker Eric Lee. Gilmore knocked down two passes and provided tight coverage. Lee dominate his former team: 4 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 QB hits, 2 passes defended, and 1 huge interception.

He might be what the linebacking corps needed, as they continue to be short on talent and energy. David Harris just can't make enough plays in the running game (and can't cover running backs), and Elandon Roberts seems to be repeating the same pattern from last year: start strong and fade later in the year. 

On the line, the return of Malcom Brown made a big difference in the run; he is a lineman who regularly totals 3+ tackles a game, which really is a lot for a Belichick defense. If only the front seven contained Tyrod Taylor in the pocket, this would have been a truly dominant performance. He scrambled three times, and each time he converted a third-down to extend the drive.

But overall it's tough to find fault when you only give up three points.

So where does that leave us? 10-2 and waiting to see if we open up a lead over Pittsburgh tomorrow night. The rest of the AFC seems to have ceded the #1 and #2 seeds to the two teams, so it's a matter of jockeying for the poll position. On the injury front, the Patriots really need to get linebacker Kyle Van Noy and offensive lineman Marcus Cannon back at full strength. The linebackers struggle without Van Noy, and you could see the difference in O-line play with the return of David Andrews at center.

Biggest On-Going Issue (a new weekly item): Earlier in the year the offensive pass distribution was great, with multiple receivers/backs getting three or more receptions in many of the games. However, injuries have, of late, set the team back there. The Pats had just three such receivers yesterday and two the week before against Miami.

Maybe it's just that the division rivals who know the Pats tendencies well enough to combat the diverse passing attack. But they've had this pattern before, and it can come back to haunt them in the playoffs, when teams are more adept at shutting down your favorite targets.

Non-Brady MVP: Rob Gronkowski, a monster game.

Statistical Oddity: In honor of Gronkowski, note that he has only fumbled three times in his career, and the last time he lost a fumble was five years (and 69 games) ago in 2012. He might not be durable, but when he plays, he is amazingly dependable.

Water-Cooler Wisdom: "Same old story in Buffalo, just a few new faces to pound into the dirt."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-2!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
Believe it or not, the only Bills QB with as many wins as Brady in Buffalo since 2001 is Drew Bledsoe, who won 14 homes games in three seasons after being traded there in 2002.