Monday, December 21, 2009

Patriots 17, Bills 10 (12/20/2009)

What a difference 8 days make. Before the Carolina game, the local media (and many front-running fans) insisted the Patriots were in free fall, sure to lose the division race and miss the playoffs despite getting Tom Brady back for the season. Even after they eked out a win last week, the naysayers persisted, claiming that the charging Dolphins and Jets were in danger of overtaking the Pats and a season without the playoffs was a waste.

Well, yesterday the AFC East went 1-3 as a division, with the Patriots the only victors, courtesy of a 17-10 decision over Buffalo. And their 9-5 mark is two games ahead of the "charging" Dolphins and Jets, both of whom had late miscues to lose. So with just two games left folks, for all intents and purposes the Patriots are the AFC East champs, and will host a playoff game, likely the weekend of January 8-9. Meet the new boss... same as the old boss! Maybe tomorrow the sports radio crowd will tell you the Pats are a shoe-in for the Super Bowl ;)

The Patriots defense entered the game undermanned, with Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork missing from the D-line. And early on it showed, with the Bills running right down their throats for 56 yards on the opening drive. But as it would all day, the Buffalo offense hurt itself with penalties, an ill-timed false start forcing them to settle for a field goal.

How did the Patriots adjust, you ask. Well, the Bills didn't score for the next 48:34, a span of over three quarters, 44 plays, and 8 scoreless possessions, including four 3-and-outs and a 4-play drive of -20 yards (and a punt). The Pats started using the "wandering defense," where they had either one or zero down linemen and five or seven defenders standing near the line of scrimmage. It caused a lot of confusion for a young Bills quarterback and an offensive line in transition.

Tully Banta-Cain notched 6 tackles, 3 sacks for 22 yards, and created QB pressure that blew the timing of numerous other plays. By far his best game on the Patriots, it was the kind of big-time performance the team used to get from Willie McGinest when things were going sour. His linebacking mate, Derrick Burgess added a sack and actually made a few plays against the run, by far *his* best game with the team. Believe it or not, the next best linebacker was much maligned Adalius Thomas. Unfortunately, Jerod Mayo and Gary Guyton appear to be wearing down or injured (note that Mayo injured his knee this year and is still wearing a brace on that leg).

The D-line got smoked on the first drive, but once they started confusing the Bills, Mike Wright played much better, stuffing inside runs and working sideline to sideline to cover wide runs and screens. Ron Brace and Jarvis Green got decent pressure and did okay against the run, too -- though neither was as effective as Wright. But as well as they did, bear in mind that the Bills O-line is bad and QB is inexperienced. If they expect to do any damage in the playoffs, they absolutely need Wilfork back and probably Warren, too. And it is time for the Patriots to re-evaluate what life without Vince might look like. Didn't look too pretty yesterday.

In the secondary, Leigh Bodden kept mostly tight coverage and knocked away two passes, including what would have been an easy touchdown. Jonathan Wilhite picked a sideline pass that the QB threw under pressure, and Brandon Meriweather (6) and James Sanders (5) led the secondary in tackles. But perhaps the most important thing they did was limit the Bills to very few yards after the catch. At one point in the fourth quarter, the telecast noted that the Bills had only 9 yards after the catch for the entire game, which is stellar. (Note: the NFL doesn't publish official stats on that, but 9 is less than the YAC some Patriots receivers had after a single catch.)

But overall, the defense benefited from dropped passes and penalties from Buffalo. It was enough to get a win, which was much needed. But they will need to perform better if they expect to win against the stiffer competition in the playoffs. Yes, I said "playoffs!" -- no apologies to Jim Mora.

The Patriots were also undermanned on the offensive line. Stephen Neal and Nick Kazcur were out of the game; however, this time they used Mark LeVoir more than Dan Connolly, and it worked out better. The rushing yardage numbers don't look that great (109 yards on 34 carries), but in the first half, when the game was competitive, they went for 62 yards on 15 carries (4.1 yards per rush). That isn't exactly stellar, but Laurence Maroney was sharp and the blocking was solid. And the reason the final numbers look bad is they ran the clock in the second half. BTW, one play I would get rid of is the one where Matthew Slater goes in motion -- they ran behind him three times and got stuffed every time. Nice try at a new wrinkle, but Slater's a wide receiver -- he doesn't have the size to block like a tight end.

The O-line also did a decent job protecting Tom Brady. Zero sacks, and at least two of the five quarterback hits came when Brady held the ball too long. Brady's throws still aren't up to his usual standards, including an early interception that he threw just as he was hit. But even his worst statistical day of the year (11 of 23, 115 yards, 1 td, 1 int, 59.1 rating) was enough to win comfortably. Best to hope for a quick healing rib and finger on the throwing hand.

You might think with only 11 completions the receivers were non-factors. But Brady threw long to Moss three times, in fact, Randy Moss came back to life, with 5 grabs for 70 yards and a touchdown, and also forced Buffalo into a 43-yard pass interference call. Wes Welker had just 4 for 40 yards, but three of the receptions went for first downs and he got two more first downs on penalties. The tight ends were very absent from the passing game, and Sam Aiken disappeared against his old teammates.

Overall, not a lot of big plays on offense, but it was good enough to hold a two-score lead for almost half of game. Still, it is troubling that they struggle so much in the second half of games. Yesterday they had three 3-and-outs and a 4-and-out after halftime, and had only one decent drive the second half (and got only 3 points out of it). Some of it was conservative play-calling to keep the clock moving and not take chances on a turnover. But whatever the problem is, they are running out of games to solve it. Just two more chances to get it right.

Special teams were not good. They gave up a big kickoff return just before the half that Buffalo almost turned into points (field goal went wide left). Punter Chris Hanson was about as bad as he's been in any game this year, and even with the shortish kicks they gave up a 20-yard return (that the Bills cashed in for their only touchdown drive). And the Patriots did not have any significant returns of their own. The Bills traditionally have great special teams, but the Pats at least have to try to stay even with them. In a game this low scoring, a single special teams mistake could cost you the game.

So where does that leave us? 9-5 does not guarantee a playoff berth, but 10-5 (or even 9-5-1) does. So if the Patriots can win at home against a Florida team with very slim playoff hopes (i.e. the 7-7 Jacksonville Jaguars), then they will be in. The Pats have no chance at a first-round bye, but they are tied with the Bengals for the #3 seed right now. And even though it is way down the line, the #3 seed means a potential date in San Diego the second week of the playoffs. Whereas the #4 seed means a potential date in Indy instead. Pick your poison -- I'll keep you updated on how it develops.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The five best scoring defenses are all in the AFC (Jets 221, Ravens 225, Patriots 244, Bengals 244, Colts 248). The last time the top five scoring defenses were from the same conference was 1986 -- trivia question, how many of them can you name (hint: they were NFC teams)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I'll take an ugly win over a 'moral victory' any time. BTW, think there's any chance Fred Taylor comes back to play against his old team this week?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-5!

PPS. Trivia Answer:

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

Bears (187), Giants (236), 49ers (247), L.A. Rams (267), Vikings (273).

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