The 41-23 final score does not indicate how nerve-wracking the first half was. The Broncos ran the ball at will early on and scored on three consecutive drives to lead 16-7 after the first 20 minutes. But the battle-tested Patriots rode three turnovers and good second-half adjustments to a 34-7 thrashing the rest of the way. The young Broncos wilted in the spotlight, with fumbles by three players in their second or third years in the league.
When the other team runs for 167 yards in the first quarter there are lots of culprits. But the one who stood out was linebacker Rob Ninkovich. He lost outside contain on at least four long runs and then inexplicably let Denver running backs break *inside* after that. It was ugly watching him play in the first half. He did have a fumble recovery and in the second half got a loooong sack (28 yards); but while blitzing the Denver quarterback he let Tim Tebow outside the pocket for big plays. All around a disappointing day from a usually solid-but-not-spectacular player.
As for the rest of the defense, it was a tale of two halves. The linebackers went for too many play-action fakes in the first half, but played better when they could ignore the run because of the big lead. The defensive line couldn't lay a glove on Denver's running backs early, but run-blitzed to clog things up in the second half. And the defensive backfield was left high-and-dry early on, as the front seven got repeatedly gashed and the safeties and corners broke coverage to make tackles. But in the second half, they mostly held their coverage long enough and were pretty tight on the receivers.
And to put it bluntly about the secondary, they are in big trouble if they don't get Patrick Chung back for the playoffs. The current safety play is the worst since Bob Kraft bought the team; too many bad angles and incorrect guesses (though in fairness the tackling is okay). On third-and-18 late in the game, Sergio Brown covered no one while Denver wideout Demaryius Thomas ran a deep sideline pattern for 39 yards. On the play Devin McCourty expected help, and on the replay it was obvious that help was supposed to be Brown.
Chung has been out for a while, and the Patriots have survived against lesser teams in his absence. But the team won't be going anywhere in the playoffs without improved safety play, and their only chance at that is a return by Chung.
Fortunately for the defense the offense converted three turnovers into points. After a fumble (forced by Ron Brace, recovered by Ninkovich), the Patriots settled for a field goal when a quick-pass to Aaron Hernandez in the end zone was just short. That was emblematic of quarterback Tom Brady's first half, when he had a few off-target passes and a middling 57% completions. But he drove them for a touchdown after a great play by linebacker Mark Anderson (strip-sack of Tebow *and* fumble recovery). And just before the half, a fumble on a late punt gave them a gift three points.
The Patriots started fast, with a 5-play, 80-yard touchdown that ended with a beautifully designed play on Chad Ochocinco's first Patriots score (33 yards along the left sideline). As mentioned, Brady wasn't sharp at first, and the offense stagnated after that initial drive. But the turnovers turned things around, and once they had the lead, Brady sliced the Denver defense the rest of the game. He had nine incompletions in the first half, and just two in the second half, and ended the day 23-34, 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Hernandez was the receiving star of the day -- 9 grabs for 129 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos defense obviously didn't want to get beaten by Wes Welker (4 for 41) or Rob Gronkowski (4 for 53), and that's the beauty of having so many offensive weapons. Neither Hernandez nor Gronkowski can be covered one-on-one by linebackers or safeties, so the opponent has to choose whom to cover with a cornerback and hope the other one doesn't kill them. In this case, Hernandez was more than happy to benefit from double-teams on Welker and Gronkowski.
For the first time in a while, the leading rusher wasn't BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He couldn't get anything going, so the Pats brought in rookie Stevan Ridley and his patient style exposed gaps in the Denver D. He ran 11 times for 65 yards, and gave just the right change of pace to keep the Broncos honest and slow down the pass rush just enough. Danny Woodhead (7 for 40) had some nifty moves in traffic, and Brady had a few QB sneaks (one for a touchdown).
The coaching staff did a great job of adjusting this week. The first few series saw a lot of Denver pressure on Brady. So they used running backs and tight ends to chip the Denver pass rushers, and that calmed things down up front. And in the second half, they run-blitzed most of the time, and with a few very notable exceptions contained Tebow in the pocket. It was clear Tebow wasn't going to take chances with the ball, so with the pressure and his inexperience, he had a very bad second half.
So where does that leave us? 11-3 and winners of the AFC East, the Patriots now control whether or not they have a first-round playoff bye. If they win their last two games, they will rest the first week of the playoffs. And if they do that, and Pittsburgh loses one of their last three games, the Patriots will be the #1 seed in the AFC.
This week against Buffalo is less risky than the last game against Miami; but Buffalo already beat the Patriots once this year and they play better against the Pats in Foxboro. Hopefully the team won't overlook the Bills, and to that end, Bill Belichick has almost certainly reminded them about the 34-31 shootout they lost.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have given up over 250 rushing twice -- and won both games. They gave up 252 yesterday, and the other game was in 2002, can you name the opponent that day (answer below)?
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It looked to me like the Broncos were overwhelmed by the moment. Three fumbles by three young players; I think that tells you they were nervous."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 11-3!
PPS. Trivia answer:
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Despite giving up 256 yards on the ground, the Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins on the last day of the season in 2002, 27-24.
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