You've probably read elsewhere that it was a game of two halves: 17-0 Miami to start, and 27-7 Patriots to finish. True enough, but it was more about effective Patriots adjustments than bad play by the Dolphins. Running back Reggie Bush ran 16 times for 81 yards in the first half; but the Patriots formation changes limited him to 6 carries and 32 yards in the last second. Quarterback Matt Moore looked like a world-beater after 30 minutes but was just beaten down in the last 30:00:
Moore's first half: 10 for 19, 179 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 sacks (7 yards)
Moore's second half: 6 for 13, 102 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks (21 yards)
The Patriots biggest defensive adjustments were to funnel the running game toward the middle, and to run-blitz and go to the quarterback if it turned out to be a pass play. This was the third week in a row where they had to stop overreacting to run-action fakes, and they have to get that worked out earlier in playoff games.
Pats QB Tom Brady got pretty beaten up in the first half, owing to a make-shift offensive line. Matt Light was a late scratch, and the shifting up front gave the Pats some problems in the first half. But they made enough adjustments to get it going in the second half, aided by the quick-strike no-huddle.
No time for a detailed breakdown of the game, but here are the trends as we head into the last game of the regular season.
1. Devin McCourty is coming on strong. In the first 10.5 games, he had 2 passes defended and no interceptions. In the last 2.5 games, he had 9 passes defended, 1 interception, and 1 interception called back on a penalty. He stunk up the joint for most of the season, but if he comes through in the playoffs, all will be forgiven.
2. They need Patrick Chung for the playoffs. Safety play is their biggest problem now, and the current mish-mash of players are great against the run and do their best with limited talent. But in the passing game, they commit too early, giving the quarterback easy decisions down the field. And their bad angles make for lots of tackles after the catch but not many broken up passes.
Chung is their only solution here; they cut James Sanders before the season, and they have so little talent at safety that receiver Matthew Slater fills in.
3. They might have to adjust formations for Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Teams seem determined to take them both away, and that is much more difficult when they line up on opposite sides of the formation. On the same side of the field, you can cover them both effectively with three defenders. But on opposite sides, you have to commit four (two on each player), which opens things up for Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch, and the running backs.
4. Brady injured his shoulder, but if he can go in the playoffs, he has to be sharper early in the game. The Patriots averaged just 4.0 points in the first quarters of their last 10 games, down from 8.4 points per game prior to that. To help the offense and give Brady more time to work into the flow of the game, offensive coordinator should work in some more running plays and perhaps go up-tempo earlier.
5. Julian Edelman will be more valuable on defense than offense once the post-season starts. His size and quickness make him better-suited to cover slot receivers than the current Patriots linebackers. And Edelman has been an afterthought on offense; so maybe he should spend all of his practice time working with the defense instead.
6. Offensive line health is key. The O-line had trouble against Miami early on, but they made the proper adjustments and got things straightened out. But the situation is dire -- they are down to their third and fourth centers of the season, and with Matt Light out last game, had to shift a guard to tackle and that made them weaker all along the line.
One more injury could prove fatal to their playoff chances.
7. Stevan Ridley has young, fresh legs -- use them. Ridley shows great burst, and still hasn't missed more than a few blocking assignments all year. The Patriots should use him in the hurry-up offense. Given more space to work with, Ridley could gash defenses and make them play the run, even in the shotgun/spread formation.
8. Unsung hero of the year so far: Zoltan Mesko. Because the Patriots score so much, Mesko doesn't have as many punts as the league average. But his numbers are eye-popping on only 55 kicks: 42% of his punts end up inside the 20 yard line; 31% result in a fair catch; and his 41.4 yard average is fourth in the NFL. Also, it was noted on a recent broadcast that the longest punt return against him is 26 yards.
Additionally, Mesko handles his field-goal holder duties flawlessly, despite working with four different long snappers in two years. In crucial situations this year, Mesko booted long punts to turn around field position. All in all, not bad work for a guy who hardly gets on the field.
So where does that leave us? The victory guarantees the Patriots a first-round bye in the playoffs and a home playoff game. A win over Buffalo next week gives them home-field throughout the AFC playoffs. The game won't be easy; Buffalo has little left to lose, and would like nothing better than to sweep the team that beat them 15 straight times before this season.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: By the end of the weekend, it will be 143 regular-season games since the Patriots sported a losing record. They lost to Buffalo on opening day in 2003, to fall to 0-1. Since that time, they have never had a record below .500 at any time during any season.
Note: if you don't think that's impressive, the second longest such streak in NFL history was 96 games, which means the Patriots streak is 49% longer than the second best streak ever ( (trivia question: can you name the team?).
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sorry, I don't have anything to add this week -- my blogger friend slacked off instead of sending me an update."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 12-3!
PPS. Trivia Answer:
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This week's opponent, the Buffalo Bills, were never below .500 between 1988 and 1993.
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