For the second consecutive time, the visitor in a Pats-Bills game jetted out to a three-touchdown advantage, only to ride poor play and turnovers to an eventual loss. The Patriots defense looked horrible in the first quarter. They put no pressure on the quarterback, weren't close to any receivers, and gave up big yards on the ground. But the game came down to adjustments -- the Patriots made 'em and the Bills didn't.
The Bills benching of wideout Stevie Johnson for a foolish "excessive celebration" penalty was a big game-changer. He left after two straight scoring drives, and the Bills were outscored 49-7 the rest of the way. The Patriots biggest defensive adjustment was letting the Bills run more and going into four- and five-deep shells to keep plays in front of them. The strange alignment sometimes left them with no one in the linebacker position; but it worked.
As with all recent games, it started ugly. The Bills led 21-0 after 15:00, which means the Patriots have been outscored 51-7 in the first quarters of their last three games. But as usual, they settled down, made adjustments, and Tom Brady cleaned up his miscues in a comeback win. But it's probably not a good idea to try this in the playoffs -- those teams might not turn the ball over and go into offensive shells so the Patriots can come back and win. Just saying.
Brady sported a 94.1 QB rating at the half, but it ballooned to 113.8 by game's end. He's been off early in recent games of late, and unfortunately his errors lingered into the third quarter this week. He finished with three touchdowns and an interception, giving him 39 on the year (against only 12 INTs). But the first two drives of the second half had passes that were off-target and some mis-communication and/or bad footing by his receivers.
Perhaps Brady's shoulder bothered him. But if that wasn't better by the third quarter it probably wouldn't have allowed him to finish the game with three touchdown drives. It's a puzzle -- one that the Patriots have two weeks to figure out before it can come back to bite them.
The season-long search for a third receiver to compliment Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski is officially over. Tight end Aaron Hernandez had 7 catches for 138 yards and 1 touchdown, and combined with Gronkowski (8 for 108, 2 TDs), and Welker (6 for 51), they accounted for 87.5% of the catches. The trio was also targeted on 88.9% of the Patriots pass attempts. Hernandez broke open the offense, and once the Bills started worrying about him, it opened things up for Welker and Gronkowski. Two receivers can be defended; three makes the Patriots much more dangerous in the post-season.
And speaking of receivers, how about running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis topping Welker in the yardage category. Green-Ellis had 1 catch, a screen pass that he ran for 53 yards. He didn't do as much in the running game (7 carries for 22 yards), but he got two touchdowns and was old reliable again. The new guy, Stevan Ridley (15 for 81 yards) was more trick-or-treat this week, getting stopped for no gain a few times, but showing great burst others. Oh, and he had his first NFL fumble -- welcome to the big leagues, rookie -- no do another lap!
The offensive line struggled again; obviously injuries are taking their toll. Buffalo isn't known for a great pass rush, but they sacked Brady four times and hit him three others. And without Logan Makins they've lost the ability to line up in a running formation and gain even a yard. The Pats will have to count on deception until they get Mankins back; although now that they have Matt Light back, at least they have players at their natural positions.
The linebackers sucked out loud in this game. Jerod Mayo got beaten repeatedly one-on-one by the running back, and the one time he knocked a pass away it was mostly blind luck. Rob Ninkovich reportedly played, but not a single play stands out enough to remember it. And we all know Dane Fletcher is limited physically, but this week he got beaten by scheme and being out of position. A week to forget for this group.
The defensive line got pushed around a lot and got little pressure early in the game. Of course it got a lot easier when the Bills had to pass the ball every down, and they ended the day with 2 sacks (by Mark Anderson and Brandon Deaderick) and 3 QB hits. However, they allowed Bills quarterback Ryan FitzPatrick to break the pocket and extend plays. It didn't hurt them today, but the playoffs will have lots of passers who can end your season on plays like that.
And in the secondary... well, it'll take some explaining.
First off, Patrick Chung returned to safety, and he was joined by James Ihedgibo and (cornerback) Devin McCourty. So starting cornerback Kyle Arrington worked with Antwaun Moulden, Sterling Moore, and (wide receiver) Julian Edelman.
Why all the shifting around, you ask? Here is my best guess.
The coaches know their corners are bad no matter what they do. But they realized they were getting killed by bad safety play -- too many big plays up the sidelines. So they put a healed Chung at safety with their best athlete, McCourty. McCourty's looked better in recent weeks, but he's been very bad at corner, so he's probably better suited to safety at the moment. And Edelman played the slot receiver because he has the quickness and toughness to cover those guys.
The strange thing is, it worked pretty well. The Pats gave up a long pass interference penalty, and there was a 29-yard sideline route in the second quarter. But other than that, there were a lot fewer long passes and hardly any Bills receivers being chased by both a short-coverage corner and an out-of-position safety.
No one knows for sure if the Patriots will continue this in the playoffs, but it's an option. For weeks opponents have gashed them with big plays, and the safeties got beaten over and over. So maybe they found a better solution, one that at least makes other teams work for their yards and points. Or maybe it's something they can try if things don't go well to start a game in the playoffs.
You're probably wondering how well the shifting around worked. Well, Moore had two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), Moulden had one, McCourty had one, and Kyle Arrington had one that was called back on a penalty. As a group, they had four passes defended, too. They gave up the pass interference call and a few illegal contact penalties, but nothing egregious. So overall, it worked pretty well; once they got the kinks worked out in the second quarter.
The coaches get props for the new defensive scheme and for recognizing and using Stevan Ridley more in this game. But they get points off for another poor offensive game plan to start the game. They've been shut out in the first quarter two weeks in a row, and five times this year. (Trivia question: can you name all five opponents... answer below.)
So where does that leave us? Resting for a week and nervously waiting for January 14 to get here. Brady might need some rest, and reports are that Mankins might need time to heal, too. It also gives them two weeks to change what they do to start the game, and with luck, to score more points early in the playoff game.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: Kyle Arrington hasn't intercepted a pass since November 21, and yet he tied for the NFL lead in that category with seven on the season.
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The only scary team in the AFC is Baltimore, and if we're playing them it's in the AFC Championship Game. I'm alright with that."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 13-3!
(Just like I told you way back in September:
http://tinyurl.com/8886pwy)
PPS. Trivia Answer:
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These Steelers, Giants, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bills shut out the Patriots in the first quarter of games this season.
Anyone else feel like this is the WORST 14-2 team in NFL history?
ReplyDeleteLOL... Combine their record from last year, and this might be the worst 27-5 team in history :)
ReplyDeleteBut they got worse in points allowed this year, which just can't bode well for the playoffs.