Patriots Survive and Advance, 23-20

In one of the best football games you'll ever see, the Patriots held on for a 23-20 win over the Ravens. The victory propelled them to Super Bowl XLVI against the New York Giants, who won their way into the big game with a 20-17 overtime thriller. More on that game later in the week; but first, let Nostrodamus (i.e. your humble blogger) walk you through yesterday's Patriots win.

First the self-congratulatory section of the email, a list of "as predicted here last week" moments from yesterday's game (if you don't want to read this, skip down 9 paragraphs):

The three dead-on predictions:

A. Baltimore running back Ray Rice was not effective in the ground game; the Patriots held him to 67 yards on 21 carries (3.2 YPC) and no touchdowns.

B. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was much more dangerous thanthan people thought. In fact, he was the best QB in the game. He went 22 for 36, 306 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 95.4 rating. He also ran for 27 yards on 4 carries, although he did miss some long bombs, mostly courtesy of the Patriots pass rush.

C. Baltimore receiver Lee Evans struggled against the Patriots, again. He had the winning touchdown in his hands and Patriots corner Sterling Moore knocked it away. For the record, here are Evans' numbers in 14 career games against the Pats:

Totals: 36 catches, 436 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 fumble lost

Averages: 2.6 catches, 31.1 yards, 0.07 touchdowns

And the two imperfect-but-close predictions:

D. I projected Patriots receivers Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez would have 18 catches, 238 yards, and 2 touchdowns. They had 18 catches, 206 yards, and no touchdowns. Not perfect, but pretty close.

E. I thought the game would be a 4- to 6-point Patriots win -- it turned out to be a 3-point win.

Thank you for indulging me. Now on to our regularly scheduled update.

The game was a contest of which team would screw up the fewest opportunities. Brady missed a wide open Gronkowski touchdown pass, and Gronkowski failed to get his second foot down (or so it was called on the field) on a first-down catch. The Patriots had to settle for field goals both times. And Brandon Spikes' interception went to waste when Brady threw his second interception on an ill-advised 50 yard bomb.

On the other side, Joe Flacco missed two wide open receivers on long passes, and the Ravens took a field goal on fourth-and-inches (whereas the Patriots went for it on fourth-and-inches and got a touchdown). The Ravens scored just six points off three New England turnovers, and lost despite clear advantages in time of possession, total yards, third-down conversions, and the turnover battle.

However, the biggest Ravens blunder was not calling a timeout before the game-tying field goal attempt. Being at the game, I saw kicker Billy Cundiff running to the kicking spot from 75 yards away. He was practicing kicks at the 20 yard-line on the opposite end of the field. And after all that running, the Ravens had only 10 seconds to measure the kick, get in position, and snap the ball. And the Ravens finished the season with a timeout they could have used -- I don't think they let you carry that over to next season.

The star of the day was probably the Patriots defensive front. They got a great push upfield for 3.5 quarters, forced three three-and-outs (for a total of minus-6 yards) to start the game, and had Flacco on the run all day long. Unfortunately, they let him break containment and run for chunks of yards, but overall it was a great day for them.

Vince Wilfork came up huge in the biggest game of the year. He had six tackles, including three for a loss, one sack, and helped clog up the middle so Rice couldn't get going. In fact, the entire defensive interior was great; Brandon Deaderick, Kyle Love (who you *still* can't pick out of a police lineup), and subs Gerard Warren, and Shaun Ellis.  (Note: Didn't see much out of Ron Brace, but it was good to see him out there finally).

The linebackers cut off outside runs and the short passing game. Brandon Spikes lived up to his billing, nine tackles, one pass defended, and a crucial interception with the Ravens driving for tying or go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. Mark Anderson got key pressures on the quarterback, with two QB hits, a sack for 7 yards, and other hurries that kept Baltimore off-balance. Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo combined for 15 tackles, and even though neither seemed huge in the game, both played their responsibilities well and made the Ravens earn every yard.

Only cornerback Sterling Moore distinguished himself among the secondary players. He saved the game with his strip of Evans, and knocked away another pass and had good coverage that led to at least two other incompletions. Safety play continued to be poor, even when Devin McCourty rotated in. James Ihedigbo got beaten for a long pass on the Ravens first scoring drive, and though he got 8 tackles and a sack, he was nowhere in the passing game. Patrick Chung was got beaten on two long pass attempts, but luckily for him they fell incomplete.

Overall, a strong front-seven made up for weakness in the back four. They won't try to play the Giants the same way; they'd get killed by Eli Manning. But that's a post for another day.

On offense, quarterback Tom Brady was lucky the defense played so well. Please hold your nose when you read this: 22 of 36, 239 yards, no touchdowns, 2 interceptions (one a terrible decision and throw), and a QB rating of 57.5. He missed Gronkowski on the possible touchdown, and was lucky to get back another interception on a penalty. The completion percentage and yards could be forgiven; but that second interception was bad for five reasons.

First, with 7:22 left and a 3-point lead, it was imperative to run some clock before scoring, but he went for a 50-yard bomb instead. Second, there were two receivers open for an easy 5- to 10-yard gain. Third, his intended receiver was Matthew Slater -- he of the one career reception. Fourth, Brady and Slater weren't on the same page, so the throw went right when Slater broke left. And fifth, it was a jump-ball situation at best, and Slater is not the player to trust in that scenario.

However, it was not all bad on offense. Despite Brady's struggles, and a miscue by Slater and Gronkowski, the receivers did a great job getting open against the aggressive Raven's defense. It was tight coverage all over the field, and the windows for completions were small. But Welker and Hernandez got the short throws, and Gronkowski was good for 17.4 yards a catch.

The running game was effective between the tackles, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis gaining 68 yards on 15 carries (4.5 YPC), with 1 touchdown. In fact, Brady might have been better running than passing -- 3 rushes, 1 touchdown. Danny Woodhead did okay on inside hand-offs, but was not as effective as Green-Ellis. However, tight end Aaron Hernandez looks more like a novelty out of the backfield (1 rush for 9 yards, 2 rushes for 0 yards).

And the offensive line did mostly a credible job. Logan Mankins and Brian Waters killed it again, and center Dan Connolly continued his underrated season replacing the injured Dan Koppen (remember him). However, the outside linemen -- Matt Light and Nate Solder -- were beaten for pressures in the game and only did okay. The center of that line is its strength; and they need to make sure they chip outside rushers in the Super Bowl.

Special teams were a mixed bag. Only one of Stephen Gostkowski's kickoffs was returned, and it went for 20 yards (the other five kicks were touchbacks). And he went 3-3 on field goals -- which as the Ravens will tell you is important. But Woodhead had a fumble on one kickoff return, and that could have been devastating as it came just as momentum seemed headed toward Baltimore.

Coaching was very good for the most part. The only play-call I disagreed with was the long pass to Slater that was intercepted. But overall, the plan of using short passes and inside runs was very good. And they have definitely come up with a blueprint to stop Rice -- and they even adjusted well when the Ravens went away from tendencies in the running game.

So where does that leave us? Can't ask for much more than a trip to the Super Bowl. Gronkowski came up injured late in the game, so that will be important to watch. And Brady's shoulder appeared to affect his accuracy, so he'll need the next two weeks to get that healthy. But for the next week, it's all enjoyment and talk -- the serious stuff won't start until next Monday.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In 22 post-season games, Tom Brady has 3 games with a QB rating under 60.0. Yet somehow, he is still 2-1 in those games. (Trivia question: two of those games were against the Ravens, can you name the other team and year? Answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "That wasn't luck, it was two great teams fighting to the finish. Glad we came out on top; but it could have gone either way."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

15-3!

&

2-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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Trivia Answer: Brady had a QB rating of 57.6 in the Divisional Round against the San Diego Chargers on January 14, 2007, and won the game 24-21 (thank you Troy Brown!).