3 Factors that Spell a Patriots Win

As game time approaches, I'm more and more confident that the Patriots will win. It goes without saying that in the NFL there are no guarantees, that any strange thing could happen to upset the predicted path. But even though this is a close match up, three things stand out that make me think the game will go New England's way:

Factor #1.  The Giants are a one-dimensional offensive team, and over the years the Patriots have proven very adept at stopping one-dimensional offenses.

Despite what I heard most of the week about New York's bruising running game, they were 32nd (i.e. dead fucking last) in the NFL with just 89.2 yards-per-game and only 3.5 yards-per-carry on the season. (Quite the turn-around from four years ago, when they ranked fourth with 134.2 YPG and third with 4.6 YPC.) They ran for 3.8 yards a rush in the November game against the Patriots, and there's no reason to think they'll do better with a healthy Brandon Spikes for (what we hope will be) the entire game.

The Giants' passing game is excellent; but the Patriots showed the ability to shut it down until the end of the fourth quarter. Prior to their two touchdown drives to end the game (which, by the way, totaled only 110 yards), New York had just one decent drive all day -- their first possession of the second half.

Not sure what Bill Belichick will have up his sleeve for the Super Bowl. But he won't have to worry about the Giants running attack, so it'll be a lot easier to focus on shutting down the pass.

Factor #2.  The Giants need to win the turnover battle, but Tom Brady is stingy in that department the game after a poor performance.

An underplayed fact about the first Pats/Giants game was that New York won the turnover battle 4-2, yet barely squeaked out a win with two touchdown drives at the end. The turnovers were legit, they forced them and could well have had at least one more interception. But if the teams are evenly matched, a 4-2 advantage would usually lead to an easier win, which it did not, indicating that the Giants aren't quite as good as the Patriots when all other things are equal.

But the bigger point is that New York is unlikely to win the turnover battle in the Super Bowl. Against the Ravens, Brady had his 15th career game with a QB rating under 60.0 (excluding the playoff loss to Baltimore in 2009, when they didn't play another game that season).

Here is Brady's average stat line the game after a sub-60.0 performance:

29 of 35, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0.5 INTs, 95.3 rating.

Note that he tosses one interception about every two games. So the Giants might expect to get one pick, but probably shouldn't count on any more largess from TB12.

Given that the Patriots are not a fumbling team, that makes it difficult for the Giants to win the turnover battle unless they are extremely careful with the ball. And without a positive turnover ratio, they are in trouble. They built a +5 turnover margin in three playoff wins. And that includes +2 in the NFC Championship Game, where they needed overtime despite getting two gifts from Kyle Williams.

In contrast, the Patriots have two playoff wins despite a negative turnover margin in both games. So while the turnover margin is important to both teams, the Giants are the ones more dependent on posting a positive number in that column by 10:30 tonight.

Factor #3.  Defensive experimentation during the regular season should pay dividends today.

From a defensive standpoint, the Patriots tried more different things this year than any year since 2004 or 2005. Three-man fronts with single-gap responsibilities, four-man fronts with defensive ends dropping into coverage, the obvious two-way player moves (Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater), inside blitzes by James Ihedigbo and Jerod Mayo, secondary schemes that looked like zone but were really man, Devin McCourty's move to safety, Ihedigbo's move to linebacker, and most shocking of all, many more stunts and games up front than in past years.

After 16 games of experimentation, the Patriots coaching staff knows what works best against pass-first teams, so they should have a good idea of how to slow down the Giants. And if the first thing doesn't work, they have multiple different packages in their defensive arsenal. Manning is certainly playing well, but if he can't recognize the defense pre-snap, then it's advantage Patriots. And it's likely they'll confuse him at least 25% of the time.

One sub-point to this factor. In 2010, the Patriots beat the Colts 31-28. After the game, Patriots defenders said they faked zone coverage pre-snap and played man post-snap about 70% of the time.

However, the plan wasn't to confuse Peyton Manning, which they conceded was almost impossible. The plan was to confuse the wide receivers, and it worked like a charm. The Patriots picked off three Manning throws, the most against him since the 2003 playoffs (a span of nine games).

Given their success with that scheme, and Eli Manning's excellent play of late, it probably makes more sense to try to confuse Jake Ballard (2nd year), Victor Cruz (2nd year), and Hakeem Nicks (3rd year) rather than trying to confuse Manning.

That sub-point notwithstanding, the overall Patriots multiple defensive looks and schemes are an asset they did not possess in Super Bowl XLII, and one they hadn't fully developed in time for the November game.

Summary

So there you have it; the three factors that play to the Patriots favor in what looks like a relatively even matchup. If two of those three come to fruition this evening, then the Patriots should be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy once again. If not... well, the post-game bashing of Belichick should at least be entertaining :)

I hope you enjoyed your week everybody, and if it isn't a Patriots blowout, let's at least hope for a good game.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

15-3!

&

2-0!

Patriots-Giants Super Bowl XLVI Preview

It's finally here!! No, not the Super Bowl -- my pre-game breakdown of the Super Bowl! The game itself is a few days away, but I thought you'd like a little reading material to kill time between now and then. If you've seen enough articles with catchphrases like "revenge game," "can't spell 'elite' without 'Eli'," and "why are the Patriots favored," here is something to break up the monotony.

As is my standard practice in such situations, I will look back at the last games these teams played -- a 24-20 New York Giants victory on November 6, 2011 and a 17-14 Giants win in Super Bowl XLII four years ago. Then I'll consider what has changed and whether or not the Patriots can alter the outcome and get a win against these guys. Checking in on those games gives us a decent chance to determine how the Super Bowl will unfold, and I am including each team's best game plan to win it all.

1. A Giant Reversal

In 2007, the Giants entered Super Bowl XLII with a punishing ground game and basic-but-clutch quarterback play. In the four years since, they abandoned those principles entirely, entering this year's Super Bowl with an excellent passing attack and a terrible running game. Note the monumental change in these stats (with NFL rankings in parenthesis):

2007 Giants rushing:
4.6 yards-per-carry (3rd) and 134.2 yards-per-game (4th)

2011 Giants rushing:
3.5 yards-per-carry (32nd) and 89.2 yards-per-game (32nd)

2007 Giants passing:
6.2 yards-per-pass (27th), 197 yards-per-game (21st), 73.0 rating (24th)

2011 Giants passing:
8.4 yards-per-pass (3rd),  295.5 yards-per-game (5th), 92.9 rating (6th)

Note that their 2011 running game ranked dead last in the entire NFL, a stunning turn-around since 2007. Bruiser back Brandon Jacobs had his worst year as a starter in 2011, averaging just 3.7 yards a carry and only 40.8 yards a game. Speed back Ahmad Bradshaw didn't do much better, 3.9 yard a carry and 51.9 a game.

Not exactly what the Patriots faced four years ago. To borrow a phrase: "Rematch?! Don't talk about rematch! RE-match?!"

2. Patriots Additions and Subtractions

As always, there are injuries and roster changes, with new players preparing, some just hoping to play, and some who know they won't play.

Last November, linebacker Brandon Spikes had five tackles in the first 15:08, but then he got hurt and was done for the next six weeks. With him back in the lineup the past two games, the Patriots shut down two of the strongest running teams in the NFL (Ravens and Broncos). Not that they have to worry about the Giants' 32nd-ranked running game, but Spikes is also better against the pass than the backup linebackers.

Another addition is running back Kevin Faulk, a playoff-tested veteran -- reliable as a pass receiver and pass blocker. Rookie Stevan Ridley fumbled in the Broncos playoff game, and the Patriots left him off the game-day roster against the Ravens. With ball-security vital in the post-season, Ridley might find himself out in the cold again with Faulk taking his place in the Super Bowl.

And even though it might sound like a reach, corner Sterling Moore didn't play in the first game, and he showed himself to be a big-play guy against the Ravens in the AFC title game. Not that he shuts down receivers, but he plays better at corner than Devin McCourty, and Moore's skill allows the Patriots to move McCourty to safety, where he is much better.

On the downside, tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a high-ankle sprain in the last playoff game, and will be limited, although he will most certainly play. He doesn't make a living with lateral movement, but he will be affected, which means the Patriots should have a game plan ready in case he isn't effective. They probably won't risk him as much on running plays either, so look for pass plays early in the game when Gronkowski is on the field.

And the one key player certain not to play is defensive lineman Andre Carter, who is out for the playoffs. He had three QB hits in the first game against New York, but he is on injured reserve and will not play on Sunday.

3. Giants Getting Healthy

The most obvious addition for the Giants is wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, who missed just one game this year -- his team's victory over the Patriots. He is an important part of their offense, averaging 5.7 catches and 93.5 yards per game since returning to the lineup. Their biggest deep threat, Nicks will be a dangerous match up for a Patriots secondary that struggled this year.

The Giants do not have any significant injuries. Bradshaw has been hobbled with a foot fracture, though he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday. And several of their vaunted defensive linemen are nursing small injuries; but you should expect them to play for sure and probably to be pretty effective.

The injury factor clearly goes to the Giants, who are nearly at full strength at just the right time.

4. Giants Game Plan For Victory

The Giants can't run the ball against the Patriots, so they should only do enough to keep the defense honest. But quarterback Eli Manning is playing at an extremely high level, so they should be able to pass. And with a full complement of receivers, he will attack the New England back-seven, a weak secondary and a linebacking corps that struggles against the pass.

On defense, everyone expects New York to get pressure with just the front four. But almost as many people expect the Patriots to use tight ends and running backs to keep Tom Brady upright. So the Giants will have to blitz some of the time -- if only to hurry up Brady's decision-making and keep the blockers guessing.

They have the linebackers to blitz. However, those 'backers are weak in pass coverage, so any blitzes will expose their secondary either short or deep. But it's a risk they have to take if they can't get pressure with the front four.

Most important is that the Giants have to win the turnover battle. They claimed a +2 turnover ratio in the regular season victory, but they only won the game by 4 points (and that on a very late touchdown drive). Every team wants to get more takeaways than their opponent, but that is essentially a requirement for the Giants to claim victory this Sunday.

(Note: game-film analyst Ron Jaworski counted four Manning passes that should have been intercepted in the NFC title game. Manning will have to protect the ball better in this game; if he tosses up that many potential picks, the Patriots have the secondary players to cash in those turnovers.

5. Patriots Game Plan For Victory

They lost in their last Super Bowl appearance because of bad offensive adjustments and coaching (it says so here, so it must be true). Therefore, in this game it is extremely important to take what the defense gives them. Even without Gronkowski, the Patriots have enough offensive weapons that the Giants can't take away everything.

So if New York jams receivers at the line and bull rushes Brady, he has to dump it off or call screens/draws to combat it. If they come out with six defensive backs in a deep cover-2, then audible to running plays. The short- and intermediate-routes in the middle of the field should be available to the Patriots and their multitude of slot/possession receivers, but if the Giants overload that area, Brady has to hit Deion Branch or Aaron Hernandez deep to make the defense back off.

This would be a much more favorable match-up with Gronkowski at full strength. But even if he doesn't play, that still leaves Branch, Hernandez, Wes Welker, and Danny Woodhead to attack the weakest part of the Giants defense -- their linebackers and half of their secondary.

On defense, the Patriots spent the year mixing together all kinds of different alignments, gap responsibilities, secondary groupings, and linebacker blitz schemes. And they probably spent the last month deciding which ones work best against deep-threat receivers, and given that they have the film, they most certainly know better than I do.

But if forced to guess which one they'd go with, I'd say a combination of McCourty and Chung at safety in a two-deep shell, hitting receivers at the line of scrimmage, and controlled bull-rushes up front to push the Giants line back into Manning. If they can't get pressure that way, look for them to use games and tricks up front to confuse New York's offensive line and get free pass rushers.

Manning is bad at escaping free blitzers (as most QBs are) and is very bad throwing off his back foot. And with a two-deep concept, the Giants will have to work their way down the field for points, something they didn't do very well for three-quarters of the game last November.

Quick Hits:

A. In 16 regular season games, the Giants were +7 in turnover margin, and they are +5 in just 3 post-season games.

B. In 16 regular season games, the Patriots were +17 in turnover margin, but they are minus-3 in 2 post-season games.

C. The Giants are 3-1 in the last four games against the Patriots, despite being outscored 82-89 (sort of the opposite of the Patriots-Ravens recent games).

D. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 34-15 the second (or third) time they play a team in the same season. (Trivia question: name the last year they were under .500 under those circumstances, answer below.)

E. Tom Brady had a 57.5 QB rating in the AFC Championship Game. Here are his average stats the week after he has a QB rating under 60.0 (excluding playoff loss to Ravens in January 2009):

29 of 35, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0.5 INTs, 95.3 rating.

Summary

This is the hardest game to pick in quite some time. The Giants changes on offense make them better suited to exploit the Patriots defense. But the Patriots offense is well-designed to attack the weakest parts of the Giants defense, too. If Gronkowski was 100%, it would be easy to pick the Patriots because that would give them three match-up nightmares on the field at the same time (with Welker and Hernandez).

But without Gronkowski, this is a much closer game. It probably comes down to the turnover battle. And as stated before, Brady averages about 0.5 picks the week after he has a down game. So I'm going with the Patriots in a 2- or 4-point victory; but if you're planning to bet on the game, I recommend lottery tickets instead. This one is just too close to call.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.
15-3!
&
2-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
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V
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V
V
In 2006, the Patriots were 2-3 the second/third times they played teams.

Pats/Giants Super Bowl Breakdown Links

Hey guys,

I haven't finished my pre-Super Bowl update, but here are some links with interesting information and breakdowns of what to expect on Sunday:

SI.com breakdown of specific matchups and schemes (five days worth, you'll have to click back to see Monday-Thursday, but well worth it):
http://nfl.si.com/2012/01/27/break-it-down-super-bowl-matchups-bill-obrien-vs-perry-fewell/?sct=hp_t11_a3&eref=sihp

Cold, Hard Football Facts on Passer Rating Differential:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5271_Kerry%27s_Super_Bowl_Tour_de_Statistical_Force.html
and more on "peaking" and Passer Rating Differential:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5279_Patriots-Giants_Tour_de_Statistical_Force%3A_who%27s_peaking%3F.html

Cold, Hard Football Facts post on the Patriots defense (just about melted my brain, so tread carefully):
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5281_The_Curious_Case_of_the_New_England_defense.html

That should keep you busy until I finish up my analysis.

Enjoy!

- Scott

Patriots Survive and Advance, 23-20

In one of the best football games you'll ever see, the Patriots held on for a 23-20 win over the Ravens. The victory propelled them to Super Bowl XLVI against the New York Giants, who won their way into the big game with a 20-17 overtime thriller. More on that game later in the week; but first, let Nostrodamus (i.e. your humble blogger) walk you through yesterday's Patriots win.

First the self-congratulatory section of the email, a list of "as predicted here last week" moments from yesterday's game (if you don't want to read this, skip down 9 paragraphs):

The three dead-on predictions:

A. Baltimore running back Ray Rice was not effective in the ground game; the Patriots held him to 67 yards on 21 carries (3.2 YPC) and no touchdowns.

B. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was much more dangerous thanthan people thought. In fact, he was the best QB in the game. He went 22 for 36, 306 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 95.4 rating. He also ran for 27 yards on 4 carries, although he did miss some long bombs, mostly courtesy of the Patriots pass rush.

C. Baltimore receiver Lee Evans struggled against the Patriots, again. He had the winning touchdown in his hands and Patriots corner Sterling Moore knocked it away. For the record, here are Evans' numbers in 14 career games against the Pats:

Totals: 36 catches, 436 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 fumble lost

Averages: 2.6 catches, 31.1 yards, 0.07 touchdowns

And the two imperfect-but-close predictions:

D. I projected Patriots receivers Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez would have 18 catches, 238 yards, and 2 touchdowns. They had 18 catches, 206 yards, and no touchdowns. Not perfect, but pretty close.

E. I thought the game would be a 4- to 6-point Patriots win -- it turned out to be a 3-point win.

Thank you for indulging me. Now on to our regularly scheduled update.

The game was a contest of which team would screw up the fewest opportunities. Brady missed a wide open Gronkowski touchdown pass, and Gronkowski failed to get his second foot down (or so it was called on the field) on a first-down catch. The Patriots had to settle for field goals both times. And Brandon Spikes' interception went to waste when Brady threw his second interception on an ill-advised 50 yard bomb.

On the other side, Joe Flacco missed two wide open receivers on long passes, and the Ravens took a field goal on fourth-and-inches (whereas the Patriots went for it on fourth-and-inches and got a touchdown). The Ravens scored just six points off three New England turnovers, and lost despite clear advantages in time of possession, total yards, third-down conversions, and the turnover battle.

However, the biggest Ravens blunder was not calling a timeout before the game-tying field goal attempt. Being at the game, I saw kicker Billy Cundiff running to the kicking spot from 75 yards away. He was practicing kicks at the 20 yard-line on the opposite end of the field. And after all that running, the Ravens had only 10 seconds to measure the kick, get in position, and snap the ball. And the Ravens finished the season with a timeout they could have used -- I don't think they let you carry that over to next season.

The star of the day was probably the Patriots defensive front. They got a great push upfield for 3.5 quarters, forced three three-and-outs (for a total of minus-6 yards) to start the game, and had Flacco on the run all day long. Unfortunately, they let him break containment and run for chunks of yards, but overall it was a great day for them.

Vince Wilfork came up huge in the biggest game of the year. He had six tackles, including three for a loss, one sack, and helped clog up the middle so Rice couldn't get going. In fact, the entire defensive interior was great; Brandon Deaderick, Kyle Love (who you *still* can't pick out of a police lineup), and subs Gerard Warren, and Shaun Ellis.  (Note: Didn't see much out of Ron Brace, but it was good to see him out there finally).

The linebackers cut off outside runs and the short passing game. Brandon Spikes lived up to his billing, nine tackles, one pass defended, and a crucial interception with the Ravens driving for tying or go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. Mark Anderson got key pressures on the quarterback, with two QB hits, a sack for 7 yards, and other hurries that kept Baltimore off-balance. Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo combined for 15 tackles, and even though neither seemed huge in the game, both played their responsibilities well and made the Ravens earn every yard.

Only cornerback Sterling Moore distinguished himself among the secondary players. He saved the game with his strip of Evans, and knocked away another pass and had good coverage that led to at least two other incompletions. Safety play continued to be poor, even when Devin McCourty rotated in. James Ihedigbo got beaten for a long pass on the Ravens first scoring drive, and though he got 8 tackles and a sack, he was nowhere in the passing game. Patrick Chung was got beaten on two long pass attempts, but luckily for him they fell incomplete.

Overall, a strong front-seven made up for weakness in the back four. They won't try to play the Giants the same way; they'd get killed by Eli Manning. But that's a post for another day.

On offense, quarterback Tom Brady was lucky the defense played so well. Please hold your nose when you read this: 22 of 36, 239 yards, no touchdowns, 2 interceptions (one a terrible decision and throw), and a QB rating of 57.5. He missed Gronkowski on the possible touchdown, and was lucky to get back another interception on a penalty. The completion percentage and yards could be forgiven; but that second interception was bad for five reasons.

First, with 7:22 left and a 3-point lead, it was imperative to run some clock before scoring, but he went for a 50-yard bomb instead. Second, there were two receivers open for an easy 5- to 10-yard gain. Third, his intended receiver was Matthew Slater -- he of the one career reception. Fourth, Brady and Slater weren't on the same page, so the throw went right when Slater broke left. And fifth, it was a jump-ball situation at best, and Slater is not the player to trust in that scenario.

However, it was not all bad on offense. Despite Brady's struggles, and a miscue by Slater and Gronkowski, the receivers did a great job getting open against the aggressive Raven's defense. It was tight coverage all over the field, and the windows for completions were small. But Welker and Hernandez got the short throws, and Gronkowski was good for 17.4 yards a catch.

The running game was effective between the tackles, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis gaining 68 yards on 15 carries (4.5 YPC), with 1 touchdown. In fact, Brady might have been better running than passing -- 3 rushes, 1 touchdown. Danny Woodhead did okay on inside hand-offs, but was not as effective as Green-Ellis. However, tight end Aaron Hernandez looks more like a novelty out of the backfield (1 rush for 9 yards, 2 rushes for 0 yards).

And the offensive line did mostly a credible job. Logan Mankins and Brian Waters killed it again, and center Dan Connolly continued his underrated season replacing the injured Dan Koppen (remember him). However, the outside linemen -- Matt Light and Nate Solder -- were beaten for pressures in the game and only did okay. The center of that line is its strength; and they need to make sure they chip outside rushers in the Super Bowl.

Special teams were a mixed bag. Only one of Stephen Gostkowski's kickoffs was returned, and it went for 20 yards (the other five kicks were touchbacks). And he went 3-3 on field goals -- which as the Ravens will tell you is important. But Woodhead had a fumble on one kickoff return, and that could have been devastating as it came just as momentum seemed headed toward Baltimore.

Coaching was very good for the most part. The only play-call I disagreed with was the long pass to Slater that was intercepted. But overall, the plan of using short passes and inside runs was very good. And they have definitely come up with a blueprint to stop Rice -- and they even adjusted well when the Ravens went away from tendencies in the running game.

So where does that leave us? Can't ask for much more than a trip to the Super Bowl. Gronkowski came up injured late in the game, so that will be important to watch. And Brady's shoulder appeared to affect his accuracy, so he'll need the next two weeks to get that healthy. But for the next week, it's all enjoyment and talk -- the serious stuff won't start until next Monday.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In 22 post-season games, Tom Brady has 3 games with a QB rating under 60.0. Yet somehow, he is still 2-1 in those games. (Trivia question: two of those games were against the Ravens, can you name the other team and year? Answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "That wasn't luck, it was two great teams fighting to the finish. Glad we came out on top; but it could have gone either way."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

15-3!

&

2-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
V
V
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V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
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Trivia Answer: Brady had a QB rating of 57.6 in the Divisional Round against the San Diego Chargers on January 14, 2007, and won the game 24-21 (thank you Troy Brown!).

Patriots vs. Ravens Preview

It's finally here, the AFC Championship Game. And for once it's a contest between the two teams that were clearly the best in the conference this season. This one appears to be a battle of the Patriots #3 scoring offense versus the Ravens #3 scoring defense. No doubt that subplot plays big; but to know how this one will go, it's important to understand where the rivalry has been and what's changed over the years.

They met once in the playoffs, but that was two full years ago (and I still think Ravens QB Joe Flacco played hurt in that game). The last time they played each other was October 17, 2010, and the Patriots eked out a 23-20 overtime win. A lot has changed in the 15 months since then; but there are patterns of play and habits of coaching that will surely come into play on Sunday. So here goes...

1. Forget Last Weekend

First of all, use caution in reading too much into the playoff games from last weekend. The Patriots defense looked like world-beaters, but they were up against a bad Broncos offense. Tim Tebow went 1-4 his last five games, and only scored 12.5 points per loss. Remember: the Patriots finished 15th in points allowed for a reason -- they are an average defense.

It's also popular to say the Ravens offense stinks; after all, they scored only 3 points in the last 46-minutes on Sunday, and their average scoring drive for the game covered just 28 yards. But that underestimates the Houston Texans defense, which ranked fourth in the NFL in points allowed (17.4 points per game).

So forget last weekend's games. The Ravens offense scored a little more than the average given up by Houston. And the Patriots defense gave up a little less than what the Broncos had been scoring in losses. In the end, they'll probably be about what you expect -- average.

2. Gronkowski and Hernandez Have Arrived, and Welker is Back

In the October 17 contest, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez were playing in just their sixth NFL games, and receiver Wes Welker was recovering from a terrible knee injury. Gronkowski and Hernandez were still learning the offense and trying to gain the trust of quarterback Tom Brady. And between them, they caught just 5 passes for 85 yards and no touchdowns.

Fast-forward to now, and both tight ends are considered in the top 10 (or even top 5) in the league, with Gronkowski universally praised as the best or second-best tight end in pro football. If both players contribute just an average game this Sunday, they would almost double their production of 15 months ago: 10.5 catches 140 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns.

As for Welker, limited by the effects of his knee injury, he caught 7 passes for 53 yards and no touchdowns in the October 2010 game. However, on Sunday if he turns in just an average game, it would look more like this: 7.6 catches, 98 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns.

So between these three receivers, the stat-lines could look like this:
10/17/2010 (actual): 12 catches, 133 yards, 0 touchdowns

01/22/2012 (proj.): 18 catches, 238 yards, 2 touchdowns.

That would be quite a difference. 

3. Ray Rice's Declining Numbers

The Ravens live by the mantra the Jets tried to co-opt: ground and pound. They control the ball with a punishing ground game, and they have Ray Rice, one of the NFL's best running backs. Those who follow the Patriots remember Rice's 83-yard touchdown run on the first play of the Ravens 33-14 playoff win in Foxboro two years ago.

What doesn't get much attention, however, is that after that run, Rice hasn't done much against the Patriots. In fact, since that carry he has been mediocre at best. Here are his numbers:

Ray Rice versus the Patriots:
- first 12 carries: 186 yards (15.5 yards per carry), 1 touchdown

- last 49 carries: 164 yards (3.4 yards per carry), 1 touchdown

Clearly the Patriots found a way to slow down Rice. He is a cut-back runner with a so-so offensive line; which plays into the Patriots disciplined defensive approach. And overall, the Ravens averaged 2.9 yards a carry (85 carries for 250 yards) since that 83-yard run by Rice.

The Patriots coaches have slowed down Rice, and that should put the game in the quarterback's hands. Unfortunately...

4. Joe Flacco's Improvement

Joe Flacco's has his critics. But he took lessons from his early games against the Patriots and dramatically improved in the game of October 2010. Here are his numbers in three individual games against the Pats: 

Game 1: 27 of 47, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 78.7 QB rating

Game 2: 4 of 10, 34 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 10.0 QB rating

Game 3: 27 of 35, 285 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 119.3 QB rating

Personally, I think Flacco was injured in the second game (the playoff contest in January 2010), so I give him a bit of a pass on that one. And the 119.3 rating in the last game was no fluke -- Flacco was poised and played very well.

The bad news for Flacco is that Derrick Mason, his leading receiver that day, no longer plays for the team. Also, the top three receivers he has aren't really the type that can hurt the Patriots (note: this doesn't include running back Rice -- only wide receivers).

Torrey Smith is a speed receiver, but he's a rookie who had just one catch for nine yards last week. Lee Evans played many years for the Buffalo Bills, and thus has played 13 games against the Patriots; but he has just 1 touchdown in all those games combined. And Anquan Boldin has 4 career catches for 63 yards against New England.

But even though Flacco doesn't have the best weapons in the league, don't expect him to wilt under the pressure this Sunday. The more he's seen of the Patriots defense, the better he's played -- which is not good news for New England fans.

5. Quick Hits

A) In the last four games against the Ravens, the Patriots are 3-1, but were outscored 98-91.

B) The Ravens last four playoff losses all came to the eventual conference champions (trivia question: can you name those teams... answer below).

C) In 16 years of existence, the Ravens franchise has as many losses in the AFC Championship Game as the Patriots franchise has in 52 years -- one loss each.

D) Bill Belichick was fired by the Cleveland Browns in 1996, and the franchise was moved to Baltimore and renamed the Ravens. Since then, Belichick and the Ravens have combined for 19 playoff appearances and 4 Super Bowl Championships. In that same time frame, the Browns made the playoffs once, and lost their only game.

 

Summary

You've probably heard people talking about how the Patriots defense finally came together and played well against Denver. And those same people probably said the Ravens offense looked horrible last weekend -- so they predict a 10- to 14-point blowout victory. I disagree.

If the game is a blowout, it will likely be in the Patriots favor. But the Ravens are very good defensively and usually don't beat themselves offensively. Having three receivers at full strength certainly tilts things toward New England. However, this feels like a 4- or 6-point victory, and it would not shock me if the Ravens pulled the upset.

There are only very good teams left in the playoffs; so every team is vulnerable to a bad day. The Patriots shouldn't lay an egg on Sunday -- the 2009 playoff loss is too fresh in their memories. They should control the ball with the tight ends, and if the Ravens add defensive backs, the Patriots shouldn't be shy about running against a pass-heavy defense.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.
14-3!
&
1-0!

PPS.
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Trivia Answer: The Ravens lost to the 2006 Colts, 2008 Steelers, 2009 Colts, and 2010 Steelers.

Patriots Dispatch Broncos 45-10

"Orange Crush" had a different meaning Saturday night; it's what happened to the Denver Broncos, not what they did to their opponent. The Patriots drubbed them, 45-10, and in winning earned a home game next week for the AFC Championship. They will play the Baltimore Ravens, a team that beat them in the playoffs two years ago, so they'll have their work cut out for them. Baltimore brings a great defense and a very good running game, running game to the contest, so next week won't be as easy as it was against the Broncos.

The Patriots put on a first-half offensive clinic. They scored 14 points in 5:15 on two drives to start the game and 14 more points in 1:34 to end the half. They added another touchdown in-between; and meanwhile, Denver's only scoring "drive" of the half was 25 yards after Brady's only interception. 35-7 at the half and that was your ballgame. The second half was just running out time and trying to stay healthy.

There are so many hosannas you can sing about the Patriots in a game that lopsided; but here are a few of the standouts:

The Offense

1. Tom Brady threw five touchdowns in the first half (and NFL playoff record) and six overall. His stats for the game: 26 of 34, 363 yards, 6 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 137.6 QB rating (no easy trick to get a rating that high when you have an interception in the game). He was in complete control from start to finish, and a big reason why the Patriots got a fast start -- unlike the past 14 weeks, when they started slowly.

2. Aaron Hernandez had 9 touches (5 rushes, 4 receptions) for 126 yards and a touchdown; quite the Swiss army knife performance, and vital in the running game that opened up long passes.

3. Rob Gronkowski still poses problems that no one seems to be able to solve. Everyone knows he's a main target near the end zone; but he somehow he got 3 touchdowns, including an otherworldly grab in the corner of the end zone. Oh... and he caught 10 passes for 145 yards -- another day at the office ::yawn!::

The Ravens will have to do a better job against Gronkowski. He now has 21 touchdowns this season, despite extra defenders and game plans designed to shut him down.

4. Deion Branch caught a 61-yard touchdown down the sideline and averaged 28.3 yards per reception. With defenses concentrating on the short game with Wes Welker (6 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown), Gronkowski, and Hernandez, the Patriots have to complete long passes to keep them honest.

5. Offensive linemen Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly, Brian Waters, and Nate Solder. Brady dropped back to pass 35 times, and he was hit only twice, sacked zero times, only had to scramble out of the pocket twice all night, and the Broncos produced just one tackle for a loss. That is amazing.

The Defense

1. Vince Wilfork (3 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits) and Kyle Love (3 tackles) clogged up the middle and forced Denver to bounce runs outside all day. Those plays didn't always go in the Patriots favor, but it was clear early on that there would be no running up the middle on Saturday.

2. Rob Ninkovich made up for a terrible first game against Denver; he shut down the edge this time and got 1.5 sacks and 2 QB hits of his own. He also forced a fumble; not a bad day at the office.

3. Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes were all over the field and did a fantastic job shutting down the Denver option-run. Multiple times, these guys threatened to tackle quarterback Tim Tebow, forcing him to pitch the ball, and then they got in position to stop the man he pitched it to. It was textbook, and is exactly what Denver will face if they don't diversify the offense for next year.

BTW, Spikes' stat line is impressive: 6 tackles, 1 sack (4 yards), 2 tackles for loss, 2 quarterback hits, 1 pass defended, and 1 fumble recovery.

4. Kyle Arrington was their best defensive back on the day; played most of the snaps and had 10 tackles on defense, 1 on special teams, and a forced fumble.

Special Teams

1. Zotlan Mesko booted the ball twice and both ended up inside the 20 yard line with no return yards. Punters aren't usually football heroes, but when the Patriots need a big punt in a big spot, they have the man for the job.

The Coaching

1. Offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia killed it again. He's been with the Patriots for over 25 years, and with four of five starters back, he put together a great plan to keep the speed rushers away from Brady.

2. Defensive coordinator-in-waiting Matt Patricia executed a great game plan, making Tebow beat them with short passes and sustained drives -- two things he can't do yet.

The Bad

The running backs did not measure up to the success of the overall team. They ran the ball poorly (22 rushes for 77 yards, 3.5 yards per carry), and rookie back Stevan Ridley fumbled for the second straight game.

So where does that leave us? Patriots versus Ravens should be quite a game. No doubt the Pats will have revenge on their minds; Baltimore knocked them out of the playoffs two years ago, handing Belichick and Brady their first home playoff loss at Gillette Stadium. Watch for my update later in the week for a breakdown of factors going into the game.

Statistical Oddities of the Week: How strange was this game? Aaron Hernandez led the Patriots in rushing yards (61).  Denver lost 45-10 but led in time of possession (33:23 to 26:37).  And Tom Brady led all players in punting average (48.0).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe Tebow should be a two-way player -- they could have used him at defensive back."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

14-3!

&

1-0!

Patriots vs. Broncos Preview

Last year I wrote that two weeks between games felt like too long.  Not this year; I'm barely getting this preview out before the game.  Another day and I'd have to pre-date the post to make it a preview at all.

So it's Patriots vs. Broncos for the right to go to the AFC Championship game.  As is my practice, I'll look back at the most recent game between the two teams and determine if enough changed in the interim to alter the outcome.  Shouldn't be too hard this time; the Patriots won 41-23 in a game played less than a month ago.

That game went Denver's way early and the Patriots way after that.  The Broncos led 16-7 after 17 minutes, but the Patriots roared back, turning turnovers and defensive adjustments into a 34-7 rout the rest of the way.

The Broncos ran for 167 yards in the first quarter.  But after the Patriots adjusted, they had only 85 in the rest of the game.  The Pats also forced two turnovers (and got one gift on a muffed punt), and the defense gave quarterback Tim Tebow only short passes.  Tebow had had just two completions that traveled over 20 yards in the air, as compared to at least five in last week's playoff win.

Meanwhile, the Patriots offense started very slowly in December, but they cashed in all three turnovers.  They they went no-huddle and used some nice play design (and some blown coverages) to sustain long drives and score touchdowns.  The Broncos slowed down Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski; but that left Aaron Hernandez to gash them for 129 yards (and 1 touchdown) on 9 receptions.

The Patriots clearly weren't ready to stop all the dimensions that Tebow brings to the game, and it took them a quarter to figure out how.  And the Broncos clearly were ready to stop the Patriots main two receivers, but they couldn't stop the third (Hernandez).

So what has changed between 12/18/2011 and 1/14/2012?  Has enough changed to give Denver a chance of turning around the final score?  Here goes:

1.  The Venue

The last game took place in Denver, a notoriously loud stadium that sits one mile above sea level. Many teams have trouble winning there, including the Patriots, who have a terrible record against the Broncos, especially in Mile High.

The teams will contest this game in Foxboro, a notoriously quiet stadium with artificial turf (as opposed to grass at Mile High). The faster track and surer footing will give the Patriots passing game an advantage. But Broncos runners will have surer footing, too, and that could be to their advantage.

There is also a perceived advantage to athletes who train at altitude. However, that will likely be offset by the short week for Denver (they played on Sunday and play again on Saturday) and the long rest the Patriots had during the bye week.

Not much there either way to turn things around; in fact, with the difficulty running offense on the road, it's probably an advantage for the Patriots.

2.  Health

Patriots who will play Saturday who did not play in the first game: Patrick Chung, Brandon Spikes, Sebastian Vollmer, and Deion Branch. You can't overstate Chung's importance to the secondary; they are so thin at safety. Spikes is overrated (IMO), but the team plays better against the run with him in there, so his return will help.

Branch probably won't make much difference unless the Broncos somehow shut down all three main receivers. But Vollmer's return allows them to use tackle Nate Solder as an extra lineman/tight end, and that should slow down the Denver outside pass rush.

On the other side, Broncos safety Brian Dawkins missed the first game, and he looks questionable for Saturday. But if he can play, he could help neutralize the Patriots tight ends -- he's a veteran with great toughness and coverage skills. Unfortunately, they might have lost Eric Decker, their leading receiver this year. Decker suffered a knee injury early in the second quarter last week, and is reportedly out of the game this Saturday.

Most of this is advantage New England, although a Dawkins return is a wild card. He helped stop them years ago in the Super Bowl against the Eagles, and if he can cause problems, the Denver secondary is good enough to convert that into turnovers.

3. Adjustments

This plays to New England's favor for sure. Once they made their adjustments in the prior game, the Broncos had no answers on offense or defense. So even if the Denver braintrust comes up with a good game plan, the Patriots adjust as well as any team in the NFL, and they should be able to make the in-game changes this week, too.

The Broncos don't have as much to adjust with. Their running game is good, but it probably won't win the game without great play from the quarterback. And the quarterback is limited, which gives the Patriots less to adjust to.

 

The Pats might face an initial onslaught, but if they survive the emotional Broncos, they will adjust better and turn the game in their favor.

4. Confidence

After the win last week, Denver has to be brimming with confidence. Unfortunately, they can't play the Steelers at home again, otherwise they'd probably win again. Pittsburgh is poor at adjustments, they were beaten up so they couldn't substitute to keep players fresh in the altitude, and their quarterback was injured so he couldn't extend plays or throw on the run.

Confidence is great, and Denver certainly shouldn't feel *bad* about themselves after last week. But the last game was a perfect storm for the Broncos and they still needed overtime to win.

5. Quick Hits:

A) Patriots are now 16-4 after a bye week under Bill Belichick, but 0-1 this year (trivia question: can you name the team they lost to... answer below).

B) The Patriots had four players this year with more catches and more yards than Denver's top receiver. Wes Welker (122 for 1,569), Rob Gronkowski (90 for 1,327), Aaron Hernandez (79 for 910), and Deion Branch (51 for 910) all out-performed Denver's Eric Decker (44 for 612).

C) The Patriots have never beaten the Broncos in the playoffs (0-2).

D) Tim Tebow really is making everyone forget Kyle Orton. Even the NFL's official web site omits Orton from Denver's passing stats. Don't believe me, here's proof (or you can check yourself at http://tinyurl.com/7u34xrt):

Summary

It shouldn't be close. The Patriots won't let Tebow beat them deep, and he hasn't shown the ability to sustain drives with short passes and score points. The Broncos defense is beaten up some -- in addition to the Dawkins injury, pass rushers Von Miller (thumb) and Elvis Dumervil (ankle) are limited. Add to that the fact that Vollmer absolutely *schooled* Dumervil in their only regular season meeting, and it could be a tough day for the Denver defense.

Additionally, the Patriots defense is healthy again, and moving Devin McCourty to safety solidified play against the deep pass. It won't help Denver that Decker is likely to be out. And the 34-7 score over the last three quarters looks more like preview than past.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

13-3!

&

0-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer: The Patriots lost 25-17 to the Steelers after their regular season bye in 2011.