Patriots Smoke Colts 59-24

If Crash Davis played football, he might have said to Andrew Luck, "Welcome to the NFL... meat."  The Patriots treated Luck like piece of meat -- pressure-cooking him into rookie mistakes and sandwiching him on several hits, in a 59-24 win over the Colts.  The victory kept the Patriots on top in the AFC East, and allows New Englanders to dream of a playoff bye.  The Pats still trail both Houston and Baltimore by two games (given that Baltimore holds the tie-breaker).  Next up is the New York Jets in three days, Thanksgiving night.

The game started out looking like a shootout.  The teams traded early touchdowns, and the Colts took at 14-7 lead into the second quarter.  Then the wheels fell off -- the Patriots scored two touchdowns without a single offensive play (on a punt return and an interception return), and the second half was a 35-7 rout that would have been called if it were a prize fight or a little league game.

Even with two backups at guard, the Patriots offensive line gave Tom Brady plenty of time to carve up the Colts defensive backfield.  (And no wonder; they had two Patriots secondary castoffs on the roster... trivia question: name them.)  The offensive line gave up zero sacks and only two QB hits, and tackles Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder held pass-rushing stars Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis in check.  The guards didn't do as well in the running game, but the Patriots make their mark passing the ball, so in this game, that was okay.

Brady's stat line is impressive: 24 of 35 (68.6%), 331 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 127.2 QB rating.  His timing and connections with both Brandon Lloyd and Julian Edelman were the best they've been all season.   The only worry is that Brady completed passes to only five receivers, and with Rob Gronkowski out for a few weeks, it could become more difficult with reduced options at receiver.

Speaking of Gronkowski, he was the receiving star of the game.  He was targeted 7 times and caught all 7 for 137 yards, and 2 touchdowns.  He really is a beast, and the next few opponents will be glad they don't have to deal with Gronk; he is a matchup nightmare.

Edelman had his best overall day as a pro: 5 catches for 58 yards and 1 touchdown, an end-around for 47 yards, and two punt returns for 116 yards and 1 touchdown.  He broke Indy's heart with the punt-return TD early, and showed the quickness of Wes Welker and better moves after the catch.  Welker, by the way, was his usual hum-drum self: 7 catches, 80 yards, and 5 first down conversions.

The running backs were nondescript; Shane Vereen getting more playing time than Stephan Ridley.  Each got one touchdown, but together only had 68 yards on 24 carries.  The team had trouble running up the middle, too many plays were stopped in the backfield.  And on outside runs, the Colts speed tracked down most runs before they got to the line of scrimmage.  This was not a failure of the backs; it was slashing and guessing plays by the Indy defense, and overmatched guards in the running game.

Defensively, the Pats blitzed more in this game than the first nine games combined.  They brought continual pressure, throwing linebackers and even safeties or corners at the young quarterback.  They started out in a soft shell zone, but Luck tic-tac-toed down the field for two touchdowns.  At that point, it seemed the Patriots decided to go with pressure and see how Luck would respond.  He didn't do very well.

They did give up significant running plays to the Colts: two 20-yard runs, and a solid five-yard average per rush.  This owed mostly to the ailments from last week, namely blown assignments and bad tackling.  On the first two drives, they lost outside contain three times and got linebackers in the wrong spots at least four others.  It looked like Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones were going to post terrible games at that point, but they turned it around and the Colts offensive success came to a screeching halt.

Vince Wilfork was their most consistent lineman, though even he missed a relatively easy tackle in the first half.  Wilfork got three tackles and knocked down two passes.  Jones got shut out on the stat line, but he played pretty well.  He and Ninkovich kept constant pressure from the outside, forcing Luck to step up in the pocket, where he made several mistakes.  And Ninkovich might have been the defensive star of the game, with 8 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.

The linebacker tandem of Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes accounted for 19 tackles and 1 QB hit.  But Mayo was late on too many plays to call it a good game.  Spikes was good overall, but even he looked lost in pass coverage on a few plays.  All in all, rookie Dont'a Hightower might have been their most consistent linebacker.

The secondary benefited mightily from the blitz-crazy game plan.  Newcomer Aqib Talib got an interception and returned it 59-yards for a touchdown.  Not to be outdone, rookie Alfonzo Dennard took a pick 87-yards for a TD late in the game.  And another rookie, much maligned Tavon Wilson, got an INT, too.  Mind you, all three gave up plays, too, and these interceptions were mostly gift picks caused by pressure up front.  But beggars can't be choosers, and good play by the secondary should not go unnoticed.

The safety combo of Steve Gregory and Devin McCourty mostly kept plays in front of them.  The one long touchdown came when Gregory bit on a run fake and McCourty had responsibility in the medium-middle, which left T.Y. Hilton single-covered for a 43-yarder.  But aside from that, while they weren't perfect, Gregory and McCourty were light-years better than last week, taking the pass-off effectively from corners, breaking up passes or making sure tackles right away, or hitting receivers at just the right moment to cause incompletions.

Talib did get beaten on a few plays, but mostly his coverage was good -- sometimes the passes were just better.  And the team would still be better with Patrick Chung and Gregory at safety, so McCourty can take the corner opposite Talib.  But with rookies Dennard and Wilson improving, the secondary is rounding into shape at this point.  Don't know if they'll be ready to stop strong passing games in the playoffs, but it looks more promising now than it did a week ago.

On special teams, there were the two great punt returns to crow about.  And the Pats had very good kickoff and punt coverage in the game.  Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a field goal and almost missed an extra point.  But it appeared that the snaps on both those kicks were too much into the body of the holder -- and they got that straightened out for the many second-half extra points they kicked.

The special-teams coaching deserves special mention; with great return and coverage games, along with getting the long-snaps straightened out during the game.  The defensive coaching looked shaky early on, but they made great adjustments and brought the Colts offense to a complete standstill.  On offense, they should have abandoned the outside runs and/or used the misdirection play with Edelman earlier to slow down the Colts pursuit.  But it's tough to complain about a game with 59 points on the board.

So where does that leave us?  7-3 and third in the AFC.  Given the trouble the Steelers are having, the Ravens are likely to finish in front of the Patriots.  Which means their best chance at a playoff bye might be beating the Texans in December and hoping they end up tied or in front of them.  Otherwise, it appears that the AFC East title is a virtual lock; with a three-game lead over the rest of the pack, and tie-breakers over two of the three teams.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Even though Tom Brady had an outstanding game, the Patriots got more return yards (377) than passing yards (331).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the Colts didn't have bad Luck, they wouldn't have had any at all."
:)

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-3!

PPS.  Trivia answer: corner Darius Butler and safety Sergio Brown now play for the Colts.

Patriots Hold On for 37-31 Win

In a game that wasn't expected to be this close, the Patriots built up a 14-point lead and then held on for a 37-31 win over the Bills.  With losses by all the other AFC East teams, the Patriots hold a two-game lead over their nearest divisional competitor (the Dolphins are 4-5).  The 6-3 Colts come to Foxboro next week, in a game the Pats need if they hold out any hope of getting a first-round playoff bye (more on that later).

Yesterday laid it all out nice and clear about the Patriots defense.  They don't get enough pressure on the quarterback, blitz or no blitz.  They have trouble stopping deep passes if they are without veterans at safety, and their linebackers are poor in pass coverage in the short- and intermediate-zones.  Aside from that, their pass defense is one of the top units in the league.

The good news on defense was the return of safety Steve Gregory from injury.  However, he played limited snaps and showed a lot of rust (missed tackles, specifically).  Fortunately, he has time to work himself back into shape and into the flow of the defense.  But he better hurry.  The corner position is a mess with Devin McCourty shoring up safety, and rookie Alfonzo Dennard gave up multiple long gains in place of McCourty.

Frankly it looked like a fire drill in the secondary, with Bills receivers running free and Patriots defenders running into each other or taking bad angles and giving up big chunks of yards.  If new acquisition Aqib Talib can't help, the Pats better get Patrick Chung back soon, so McCourty can move back to corner. McCourty did make the INT that sealed the game, but the team needs him in two positions right now, and that means they need to get someone healthy so he can play one or the other.

The linebackers weren't all horrible, but they did give up too many crossing patterns in the 10-yard range, and also they did not hold up well against the run often enough.  In fact, for the first time in quite a while, I'm going to re-watch part of the game, because watching it live I couldn't figure out how the Bills opened up those gaping holes in the running game.

Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, Ninkovich -- they all missed seemingly easy tackles, and all got out of position and gave up big running plays.  Oh, and Spikes had roughing-the-passer and encroachment penalties -- all in all not his best game.  Mayo and Spikes led the team with 12 and 11 tackles, respectively; and Ninkovich had a sack and two QB hits.  So they made some plays; just gave up too many.

The defensive line alternated between stuffing the run for no gain and letting it through like a sieve for big yards.  Vince Wilfork had a good game (4 tackles, 1 sack for 10 yards, and a forced fumble).  The Pats moved him up and down the line, which gave the Bills some of their openings; but it allowed Wilfork to get better pressure on the QB.

For all the hype about Chandler Jones, he lost outside contain on some of those runs, too, and he didn't do much else, either (just one assisted tackle on the day).  He might be hitting the rookie wall.  It was an undistinguished performance by the rest of the line; although rookie Justin Francis showed a good burst to the QB and did a decent job in limited duty.

With a defense this problematic, it's clear the offense has to carry the day to win games.  Fortunately, it is supremely talented, well run, and by and large well coached.  You never know which player will get the mismatch; but you always know quarterback Tom Brady will find it and exploit it.  He did yesterday, for a ho-hum line: 23 of 38, 237 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 96.1 QB rating.  Good decisions in the face of decent pressure, and a few lucky breaks, and he kept his interception total at 3 for the entire season.

Running back Danny Woodhead had a great day: 4 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown, and a 15-yard run for another touchdown.  Stevan Ridley was the workhorse; 22 carries for 98 yards, and very good in pass protection.  As pointed out by my friend Dave, he lacks breakaway speed, but has everything else you could ask of a running back.  He easily leads the team with 814 yards, and hasn't fumbled in over a month, so maybe those problems are behind him.

Old reliable Wes Welker led the team in targets (11), catches (6), yards (74), and yards per catch (12.3).  Despite what you hear in the press, it's tough to imagine the Patriots not working out a long-term deal with Welker, he's just too effective in this offense.  He opens things up for Brandon Lloyd (5 catches for 45 yards), Gronkowski (3 for 31 and 1TD), and even Deion Branch (4 for 30).

As for the offensive line, it was not always perfect, but going against the strength of the Bills defense (their line), they gave up just 1 sack, 4 QB hits (probably too many), and not much else.  Brady had plenty of time most plays, and the running game went for 4.0 yards a carry and 2 touchdowns.  No spectacular plays, but given their responsibilities, quite nice to know they are protecting the team's #1 asset well.

Special teams mention of the week; Stephen Gostkowski gave up nothing on kick returns, and he hasn't missed a field goal since the last Buffalo game in September.  Looks like he has those early-season jitters worked out of his system.

The biggest coaching questions were around the Patriots last drives of the game.  On one possession, they got the ball with 9:35 to go and a 10-point lead, and proceeded to go three-and-out and take only 19-seconds off the clock.  In the shadow of their own goalposts, it probably made more sense to run the ball three times and kick it to the Bills, at least you'd remove 2:00 off the clock.

And after the Bills pulled to within 3 points, the Patriots got good field position and had 7:40 on the clock.  On paper, what followed looked like a good drive: 14 plays, 5:41 elapsed time, and a field goal.  But they were snapping the ball with 15+ seconds left on the play clock, and when they got near the goal line, they ran for a loss, got a penalty, and then threw twice (incomplete) before taking the three points.

If they run it into the line three times, the Bills would have had no timeouts left, and less than 1:30 on the clock.  And if the Pats used more of the play clock earlier in the drive, they would have ended the game with possession of the ball.  Not terrible coaching, just odd.  And bad situationally; which is where they usually excel.

So where does that leave us?  6-3 and a division crown coming into focus on the horizon.  Only the Dolphins are within striking distance, but if the Patriots simply split with Miami, the Pats will be division champs again.  As for the rest of it, the possibility of a playoff by starts this week.  They have to beat Indy, otherwise they will be looking up at at least three teams, two of which would have the head-to-head tie-breaker.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The longest play of the game for each team involved penalties.  The Bills got a 14-yard run and picked up 15 more on a Jerod Mayo unnecessary roughness penalty.  And the Patriots got 11 on a Shane Vereen catch-and-run and added 15 more on a facemask by Bills corner Stephon Gilmore.  (Trivia question: the Pats gained more yards one other time in this game -- do you remember the situation?)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Thank goodness the Bills haven't outgrown their habits of dropping passes, making bad plays, and committing bad penalties.  Otherwise, things might have ended differently."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-3!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The Bills pass-interference call in the end zone went for 37 yards, but it is not an official play, so it doesn't count in the "longest plays of the game" scenario :)

Patriots 2012 Mid-season Report

Due to Hurricane Sandy and about 15 other factors, I took my bye a week early this year.  Sorry there was no report last week, but in case you missed it, the Patriots throttled the Rams 45-7.  An overwhelming performance like that would have been fun to break down, but suffice it to say almost every Patriots player did well and almost all the Rams played poorly.  How's that for a breakdown you can take the bank :)

The Patriots themselves were on a bye last week, with no game over the weekend.  And with the losses by both Miami and Buffalo, the Patriots stand alone atop the AFC East at 5-3.  This is one game worse than I thought they'd be at this point, but still well in control of things in their division.  However, with both Houston and Baltimore two games ahead of them (Baltimore has the head-to-head tie-breaker), a playoff bye appears doubtful.

As for the season so far, here are a few areas from the first half that will be interesting to watch as the second half commences.

1.  Down on the Corner

Despite what you read in the popular press, the Patriots safety play is much worse than their cornerback play.  They tried shoring up safety in the off-season by adding Steve Gregory and pursuing LaRon Landry (who chose the Jets instead).  But injuries to Gregory and Patrick Chung forced rookies Tavon Wilson and Nate Ebner into the starting lineup, with predictable results: big plays for easy touchdowns and at least one loss (against Seattle).

Unable to secure another safety, the Patriots did the next best thing.  They traded for a cornerback -- in fact, one of the few shutdown corners in the NFL, Aqib Talib (formerly of the Tampa Bay Bucs).  The acquisition allows them to move corner Devin McCourty to safety without taking a hit at corner.  McCourty's two games starting at safety showed the improvement he brings: in the Seattle game (with Wilson and Ebner at safety), the Patriots gave up four plays of 29 yards or more; but in the next *two* games with McCourty at safety, they gave up only two total plays of 29 yards or more.

Talib has a history of on-field and off-field problems, so the team has to hope he will straighten up in a more structured environment.  If not, they can cut him at any point and owe him next to nothing, so the only real risk is the fourth-round pick they traded to get him.  It's a gamble, but completely worth rolling the dice.  The Pats have spent multiple high-round draft picks on corners, and without much luck, so if they can get a shutdown corner for a fourth-rounder, that's a win.

2.  The Magnificent Seven

The interior of the Patriots defensive front seven was solid the past few years; it was the outside that gave them trouble.  Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Jerod Mayo, and Brandon Spikes held fast inside, and last year they added Mark Anderson and Andre Carter for speed-rushing from the outside.  Unfortunately both Anderson and Carter left in free agency, and big questions were left in their wake.

Enter draft picks Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, an improved Spikes and Rob Ninkovich, and a magically reborn Jermaine Cunningham -- and suddenly the front seven is tearing it up.  Jones has more sacks at the halfway point (6.0) than Carter or Anderson did in 2011, and he holds the edge against the run better than Anderson.  And Cunningham excels in a part-time role, after two years of pre-season promises that wilted in the regular season.

Spikes and Hightower are solid in pass coverage, a rarity for Patriots linebackers the past few years.  Ninkovich's jack-of-all-trades act works perfectly, sometimes rushing the passer, sometimes dropping into coverage, and moving between linebacker and lineman seamlessly.  Mayo inside has his attitude back, free to seek and destroy ball-carriers.  He'll never be great in pass coverage, but with Hightower and Spikes back there, the front seven is as solid as any team this side of the Bears or 49ers.

3. Back to Backs

A lot has been made of the Patriots reinvigorated rushing attack, but believe it or not, they ran for more yards per carry in the first eight games of 2011 than they have so far in 2012 (4.4 ypc versus 4.3).  They did have a lot fewer yards last year (893 versus 1,197 this season), so their commitment to running the ball is clear this year.  But the biggest difference is in the backs they have on the roster and what they bring to the table.

Stevan Ridley runs more under control than any Patriots back since Curtis Martin, which makes him a threat to break a run on any play.  To contrast him with last year, Ridley has 5 runs of over 20 yards, while last year's starter, BenJarvus Green-Ellis has only 1 such play for the Bengals this year.  And to compliment Ridley, both second-year rusher Shane Vereen and rookie Brandon Boldin can bull their way into the end zone but have the speed to get outside if the play opens up that direction.

Third-down back Danny Woodhead is just that -- a third-down back -- and the Patriots should rememer that when they try running him on first- and second-downs.  So while they haven't run for more yards per carry, the Patriots running game has new threats and is far more diverse than last year.  No more straight-ahead running with these guys, they bring dynamic skills and all four are a threat to take any play the distance.  Not a bad way to compliment to one of the best passing games in the NFL.

4.  The Replacements

Along the offensive line, incumbent starters Matt Light, Dan Koppen, and Brian Waters were replaced by Nate Solder, Ryan Wendell, and Dan Connolly, respectively.   It wasn't pretty at first, 12 sacks the first 5 games; but got much better as the season progressed, 2 sacks in the last 3 games.  Solder played about equal to the underrated Light, and Wendell and Connolly have filled in admirably for players who made the Pro Bowl in the past.

At safety, James Ihedgibo and Sergio Brown were awful last year, just awful.  But replacements Steve Gregory and rookie-combo Wilson/Ebner have been a wash at best.  Gregory played the "don't get beaten deep" method well, but he's injured and only played four games.   And the struggles of Wilson/Ebner cost the Patriots the Seattle game and were apparent in almost every big passing play given up.

On the coaching front, Josh McDaniels takes the usual beating from fans who think the Pats should score touchdowns on every possession.  But he's diversified the running game, brought imagination to the passing game, and is better at play-calling than departed coordinator Scott O'Brien.  Not perfect, but the team has scored 32.8 points per game so far, an improvement over the 27.6 ppg in the first eight games of last year.

5.  Quick Hits

A.  My prediction that the tight ends would see a drop in production looks about right at this point.  Aaron Hernandez missed four games with injuries and his numbers are down significantly.  Rob Gronkowski faced much tighter coverage, and he's on pace for 86 catches, 1,160 yards, and 14 touchdowns.  Great numbers for a tight end, but all lower than last year's 90, 1,327, and 17.

B.  Backup tight ends Daniel Fells and Michael Hoomanawanui are doing well in bit roles.  Both are very good blocking (Fells especially), which works well with the Patriots talent at running back.

C.  Speaking of running backs, the Patriots are extremely young at that position.  Woodhead is the elder statesman of the group at age 27.

D.  Brandon Lloyd hasn't worked out as well as expected, and his numbers are dropping.  In the first 3 games, he had 22 catches for 237 yards, but in the 5 games since, those totals fell to 15 and 198.  He does appear to have a bit more chemistry with Tom Brady the last two games, and he'll never be as bad as Joey Galloway or Chad Ochocinco -- but it's mid-season, time to step it up.

E.  The most important games to retain control of the division are the two against Miami.  They are only a game back, and the Pats play them twice in the last six games of the year, so no overlooking them.

6.  Summary

5-3 isn't what most people expected, but the O-line is gelling nicely and the running game is a pleasant surprise.  Brady is outstanding so far, and when the offensive weapons are all healthy the team should put up 35+ most every game.  The defensive secondary needs solid contributions from Talib or the return of Chung and/or Gregory.  The front seven is blitzing more, which tells you Bill Belichick is more confident that the secondary will hold up in coverage.

It's good to see the Patriots get back to having a team that improves as the season goes on, instead of the "win at all costs right now" attitude that's prevailed since 2007.  With all the rookies on defense, there should be continued improvement there (except maybe Jones, who plays so much he might hit the rookie wall soon).  And there is still hope that Brandon Lloyd will improve if/when Aaron Hernandez is full strength again.

Enjoy the second half of the year!

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  5-3!

Patriots Hang On to Beat Jets, 29-26 in OT

In a game of give-aways and take-aways, the Patriots got the one that mattered most and pulled out a 29-26 victory over the division-rival Jets.  The win gives the Patriots the division lead over idle Miami and the losing Jets and Bills.  Next week it's across the pond to play the London Rams -- er, make that the St. Louis Rams -- at Wembley stadium.

After a week of people questioning if Tom Brady is finally on the downside of his career, he made very few mistakes and was a couple dropped passes away from controlling the game comfortably.  And in the end, he led a final drives to tie the game in regulation and win it in overtime.  Add to that Stephen Gostkowski's field goals to end each of those drives and the closeout by the defense in overtime, and it was a total team win.

Brady's numbers don't look great: 26 of 42 (62%), 259 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions.  But there were several passes right on the money that were dropped, and though the Jets didn't pressure him consistently, they did a great job of coverage in the short zones favored by the Pats offense.  Some of his off throws were on purpose, because the Jets coverage was just that good.

Receiver Brandon Lloyd was targeted 8 times -- and he had 1 catch and 1 offensive pass-interference penalty.  He also dropped an early bomb that would likely have led to points on the first drive, and he dropped a potential touchdown late that would have won the game in regulation.  This off-season acquisition still isn't working out as well as the Patriots expected, and it should be improving more than it has so far.

The other receivers were mostly very good, when they got open.  Difficult to complain about Rob Gronkowski's production (6 catches, 78 yards, 2 touchdowns), or Wes Welker's (6 for 66 yards, 4 first downs).  Julian Edelman and Aaron Hernandez are still working their way back in after injuries, but both looked pretty good overall.

The surprise at running back was that Shane Vereen started instead of Stevan Ridley.  The two were chosen in back-to-back rounds in the 2010 draft, but last year Vereen was injured almost the entire season and Ridley grasped the offense and blocking schemes quickly and has gotten much more playing time  But Vereen looked comfortable in blitz pick up, had a nice burst, and ended up with 6.1 yards per carry (to Ridley's 3.8)  (Trivia question: Has Vereen out-gained Ridlley on the ground in any NFL games to this point?  Answer below.)

The offensive line really suffered from the absence of Logan Mankins.  On the first drive, replacement starter Donald Thomas windmilled two linemen -- one of which was picked up by Vereen.  If Thomas got *either* man, the play might have worked, but Brady had to throw it away and the drive stalled.  Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer are both playing very well, and overall it is a credit to this unit that the team averaged 4.2 yards per rush and let up only 1 sack in 43 pass plays.

The defense was a real mixed bag.  They shut down the Jets on 4 of 6 first half drives, but then let them score on 4 of 5 second half drives.  But they did force the Jets to take a field goal after a late fumble by Devin McCourty (on a kickoff) and they turned the ball over in overtime to end the game.  Some bad, some good, some very bad, some very good.

The Patriots took my suggestion and played Devin McCourty at safety most of the game, with both Chung and Gregory out.  It only semi-worked; he got worked over a few times, but never let receivers get behind him and so the passes were shorter gains than the ones against Seattle.  Despite what you'll read elsewhere, a week after giving up multiple plays over 40 yards, they gave up plays of 20-26 yards instead.  Still not great, but better.

Rookie Alfonzo Dennard did a decent job starting in McCourty's spot.  He had an interception, knocked away one pass, and would have knocked away another except the ball he tipped was caught by a Jets receiver.  Kyle Arrington had more difficulty, but Ras-I Dowling struggled the most.  He has obvious physical advantages (long arms and quickness), but somehow it isn't working out for Dowling.  He got beaten regularly on short routes and once on a long ball.

The defensive star of the game was linebacker Rob Ninkovich, who moved back to LB from the defensive line a few weeks back (for the injured Dont'a Hightower).  He is showing great versatility, notching 1.5 sacks yesterday, 2 tackles for a loss, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 important forced fumble/recovery in overtime to end the game.  Hightower had a sack, too, and he had added 7 tackles, which is impressive given that he wasn't out there too long.  He also does well in pass coverage, and might be their best pass-coverage linebacker -- a mere seven games into his NFL career.

Jerod Mayo continues to get beaten in pass coverage, though it's not always his fault.  He should take the blame when it's a 5- to 10-yard completion; but anything beyond that is either a blown coverage, bad scheme, or the safeties responsibility.  Mayo did lead the team in tackles (11), and Brandon Spikes had 10 bone-jarring tackles.  Spikes only guessed wrong once, and as he's limited his misreads, he has become an excellent run stopping backer.  Just ask Shonn Greene.

The Jets rand the ball well, which might indicate subpar play on the line.  It might have been true of Kyle Love and Chandler Jones, but Vince Wilfork and Jermaine Cunningham performed very well.  Wilfork made 7 tackles (a big number for a lineman in this defense), and he blew up a running play that led to a fumble and a safety... and all points are huge when you need overtime to win.  Cunningham had just 2 tackles on the stat sheet, but he forced runs back inside and forced the Jets QB up in the pocket several times.  He also got credit for half a sack.  Jones isn't playing badly, but he isn't quite the phenomenon he was projected to be.  He also loses outside contain on inside spin moves too often.

Special teams gaveth, tooketh away, and then gaveth again.  Devin McCourty started the Patriots scoring with a 104-yard kickoff return for touchdown.  But late in the game he fumbled a kickoff, which could have lost the game.  And the team gave up two long kickoff returns (one of which was called back on a penalty).  Also, there was the timeout call just before the team's first punt -- apparently because they didn't have the right personnel on the field.  Unacceptable.

On the plus side, Stephen Gostkowski hit two critical field goals, Zoltan Mesko repeatedly pinned the Jets inside their 20 yard-line, and Wes Welker had some decent punt returns.

The only continuing quibble about coaching is their insistence on throwing to Brandon Lloyd when he is not open.  If he's not open, don't force it -- take what the defense gives you and move on.  There are always complaints about the play calling, but in this game it was better.  They started out passing a lot, but this time they got back to the running game and it was effective in helping control the ball.

So where does that leave us?  In first place, where we belong, of course!  4-3 will have to do for the moment, but don't mark down 5-3 just yet.  The Rams aren't great, but they do get pressure on the passer, which plays against one of the Patriots weaknesses -- the offensive line.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Jets QB Mark Sanchez' career record against the Patriots is 3-5.  In all 3 wins he threw zero interceptions.  And in all 5 losses he threw at least 1 interception.  Consistency; that's what it's all about.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "This was the best Pats/Jets game since the first Tuna Bowl.  I remember the Pats blocked a field goal at the end to preserve the win."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  4-3!

PPS.  Trivia answer: Vereen actually outgained Ridley in two consecutive games in 2011: 39-0 against Kansas City and 18-4 at Philadelphia.

Patriots Botch Another, Seahawks Win 24-23

Seattle used an opportunistic defense and big plays on offense to down the Patriots 24-23 yesterday.  The loss drops the Patriots into a four-way tie for the lead/basement in the AFC East -- all teams at 3-3.  Next week they face the New York Jets in a game where the winner will have at least a share of the division lead... and the loser will have at least a share of last place.

There are many life lessons to be learned from football -- but the most important is that you need to take full advantage of your opportunities.  In life, you only get so many chances to buy Apple stock at $5/share; miss them and you will regret it.  In football, you only get so many possessions; mess them up and you will regret it.

Last week against Denver, the Patriots messed up two or three times and the Broncos messed up five or six times, so the Patriots won.  This week, the Pats messed up five or six times, and Seattle only messed up two or three times, so the Seahawks won.  The maddening thing is that with all their defensive problems and missed opportunities, the Patriots are just three plays away from being 6-0 instead of 3-3.

The Patriots screw-ups from yesterday are an impressive list:

1. On Seattle's second possession, Jerod Mayo whiffed on third-down tackle of QB Russell Wilson, and Wilson converted the first down.  The next play was a touchdown pass instead of a field goal attempt.
2. The Patriots got a gift on a blown punt, taking over at the Seattle 24 with the clock running down in the second quarter  But they screwed up time management for the second week in a row, and when Tom Brady was called for intentional grounding, the half ran out without even a field goal attempt.
3. As the third quarter headed into the fourth, the Pats drove 60 yards to the Seattle 6 yard-line.  But Brady threw an interception in the end zone, depriving the team of an easy field goal try.
4. Then the Patriots defense got their second fumble recovery of the game, but after passing for 45 yards on two plays, they went conservative (three Stevan Ridley runs) and settled for a field goal.
5. And after two more lackluster "drives," Sterling Moore blew his outside containment on the last Patriots punt of the day, giving the Seahawks a short field to get the winning touchdown.

Take away one of those screw-ups, and the Patriots come out on top.  After all, they only lost by one point against the top-rated defense in the NFL, in one of the most hostile environments in all of sports.  But instead, add up all those missed opportunities, and the Patriots weren't good enough to overcome them.

Brady had by far his worst game of the year.  Many of his throws were short (though some of that was caused by Seattle pressure).  And both of his interceptions were bad -- the first one was to a blanketed Deion Branch and the second one was in the red zone, where he needed to protect the ball for a field goal at the very least.  He ended up 36 of 58, 395 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 INTs.  But he seemed out of sorts overall; not audibling as much, throwing to covered receivers too often, and committing two intentional grounding penalties.

His receivers mostly did their job; though there were several balls that went through receivers hands (it was raining, after all).  Wes Welker continues to prove that reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated -- notching 10 receptions for 138 yards and a stretch-to-the-pylon touchdown.  Aaron Hernandez returned to get 6 catches (30 yards and a touchdown), and Brandon Lloyd and Rob Gronkowski also got 6 catches each (for 80 and 61 yards respectively).  But none of it could make up for the two interceptions; those were killers.

On the offensive line, the most intriguing matchup was left tackle Nate Solder versus sack machine Chris Clemons of Seattle.  Solder did an adequate job in that one-on-one battle, winning most of the time.  However, he let Clemons get pressure twice on the Patriots last-gasp possession, which sort of negated good work most of the day.  In fact, Brady was kept pretty clean on the day (5 QB hits, 1 sack for 7 yards); though the pressure kept him from stepping into his throws.

The Patriots tamed their own running game, rushing just 26 times for 87 yards (3.3 ypc).  A far cry from the last two weeks of 250+ yards a game, but probably necessitated by the defense being played.  The prior games made the Pats running attack look better because those teams played soft zones to make sure they didn't get beaten by the passing game.  Not this week -- Seattle played mostly their base defense, and they held up well enough to keep the Patriots 10 points below their 33-point season average.

The defense pitched in with two fumble recoveries and some timely plays to end drives.  But in the end, they gave up way too many big plays.  Wilson had 6 plays that covered over 20 yards: 22, 24, 29, 46, 50, and 66 (the 46 and 66 yarders coming in the fourth quarter).  And those big plays all came on scoring drives.  And it was the entire defense: sometimes the DBs let up big pass plays; sometimes the linebackers let them up; and sometimes the defensive line let the QB out of the pocket so he could make them.

Rookie Chandler Jones impresses in pass-rushing (2 sacks for 10 yards, 3 QB hits, and 1 forced fumble), but he still doesn't hold the edge against the run.  He's a work-in-progress, but he's great at part of his job and improving at the other part.  Pressed into full-time duty, lineman Jermaine Cunningham looked more like the guy from the last two years -- that is he disappeared.  Rob Ninkovich excelled at linebacker, and if Cunningham could hold up, perhaps the overall defense would benefit from moving Ninkovich back to LB permanently.  But the team can't do that until someone steps up to take the left end position.

Brandon Spikes did some guessing and mostly got it right -- two tackles for a loss and a QB hit.  And Mayo ended up with eight tackles, but it's the one he missed against the Seattle QB that stands out the most.  All he had to do was hold up Wilson until the rest of the team arrived, but he completely whiffed and that changed a field goal attempt into a touchdown on the next play.  It is not the kind of tackle a player like Mayo can miss in that situation.

The secondary... whew, what stinker.  Time after time, play after play, long passes sailed toward Seahawks receivers who were well covered, and the Patriots defenders never turned around to knock the ball down, never cut in front for an interception, and too often got called for interference.  This week's torched DB was Kyle Arrington, who was targeted more than anyone else, and who allowed play after play without slowing things down at all.

And on the last Seattle drive, with the game on the line, both starting safeties were out with injuries.  But rather than take my advice and put Devin McCourty at safety, the team went with rookies Tayvon Wilson and Nate Ebner.  With predictable results.  Wilson got turned around, Ebner reacted too late, and it was a 46-yard touchdown over both their heads.  Ballgame.

Special teams didn't distinguish themselves, either.  The long punt return came at exactly the time it could not come.  And the Seattle punter's net average (43.0) was almost as high as Mesko's gross average (44.3).  Although Stephen Gostkowski redeemed himself from his recent struggles, hitting 3 of 3 field goals and getting 4 touchbacks on 6 kickoffs.

As for the coaching, it was remarkable to see the creativity on offense evaporate in the fourth quarter.  Seattle used run-blitzes to stop the Patriots cold on those last two possessions; but the Pats never audibled to a screen pass or a short slant to combat it.  And they have to rethink how they handle timeouts at the end of the half.  For the second straight week they botched things just before the half, but they didn't learn their lesson from the Denver game and paid the price against the Seahawks.

So where does that leave us?  3-3 isn't great, but overall the team isn't playing terribly.  A play here or there and they could easily be 5-1 or 6-0.  But they have to be more consistent against the Jets this weekend.  The only reason the rest of the AFC East is tied with them is that they haven't played games against all the teams yet.  They have the Jets followed by the Dolphins -- wins those two weeks puts them atop the division, with only Buffalo possibly tied with them (and the Patriots holding the tie-breaker by virtue of their head-to-head victory over the Bills).

(Very Telling) Statistical Oddity of the Week: On their scoring drives, the Seahawks averaged 10.92 yards per play; on their non-scoring drives, they averaged 2.52 yards per play.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Screw up the end of the half, okay.  Botch the punt coverage, it happens.  But you can't have red zone turnovers."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  3-3!

Patriots Handle Manning, Broncos 31-21

(Sorry for the delay; I was out of town and offline for the entire day after the game, so no way to get the update in.  This update will be brief; though I hope informative.)

The Patriots rode three Denver turnovers and several other miscues to a 31-21 victory.  The win puts them at 3-2, once again placing them atop the AFC East all by themselves, a game ahead of all the other teams (who are bunched at 2-3).  The schedule has them flying west to play in Seattle, a difficult venue and a better team than most predicted.

Quick Points: Offense

1.  Enough already about Wes Welker being on the outs with the Patriots.  He made more catches every week so far this season: 3, 5, 8, 9, and 13 (and note, he's already second in the NFL in receptions.)

2.  The running game is for real -- 247 yards last week, 251 this week.  The last time the Patriots ran for 200+ years two weeks in a row was a long time ago (trivia question: name the year -- answer below).

3.  But Stevan Ridley needs to get serious about not fumbling.  In his last 6 games, he has 3 fumbles and he lost 2 of them (and he was centimeters away from another fumble at the goal line against Denver).  If he keeps it up, Brandon Boldin will take his job.

4.  The Patriots lead the NFL in scoring, and the offensive line is a work-in-progress (at best), they have been missing two of the key receivers (Aaron Hernandez and Julian Edelman), and the play-calling has been experimental at times as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels finds the plays that work best.

5.  Even with a 3-2 team, Tom Brady is probably in the running for league MVP again.  His numbers so far: 124 of 185 (67%), 1,450 yards, 8 TDs, 1 INT, and 102.8 QB rating.  And the offense should get better as the O-line gels and players return from injury.

6.  Danny Woodhead should never run the ball on first or second down.  He is much more effective when he runs against pass defenses on third-and-long.  And even though he's a liability in pass protection, he's good enough to make defenses pay if they don't know he's going to run.  (Note: point made by my friend Allan before the game.)

Quick Points: Defense

1.  The Patriots linebackers are subpar in pass coverage.  And it really shows with Dont'a Hightower out and safety Steve Gregory (out with injury) unable to help in short coverage.  This might be their achilles heel, but of course they have 11 more games to get it straightened out.

2.  As mentioned in previous updates, teams simply can't run consistently against the Patriots.  The team ranks 5th in yards-per-carry allowed (3.4) and haven't given up a single run of over 20 yards all season.

3.  The new safety rotation should be Patrick Chung, Gregory, and Devin McCourty.  Not that I'm down on McCourty, who is better than most people think.  But with rookie Tayvon Wilson in for the injured Gregory, the play-action fakes opened up too many intermediate passing plays.  And the Broncos hit several long pass plays (and just missed several other open receivers deep).

When McCourty played safety last year, at least he didn't get beaten deep.  The Patriots have more options at corner: Ras-I Dowling, Sterling Moore, Wilson, Alfonzo Dennard (who made some nice plays on Sunday), and even Nate Ebner.  But once you get past Chung and Gregory, their best option at safety is McCourty.

4.  Linebackers Rob Ninkovich and Jermaine Cunningham have improved immensely this year.  The 4-3 seems to suit Cunningham, who came off the milk carton to make several key plays already this year.  And Ninkovich was mostly just decent last year, but he's had two excellent games in a row and three overall this year.

5.  The Patriots lead the AFC in turnover ratio at +17 for the season -- an average of +3.4 per game.  The second-place team is only +8 (trivia question #2: name that team, answer below).

Quick Points: General

1.  The game was closer than you think -- without Broncos drops, it could have been a one-possession game.

2.  Patriots crowd did their best, but the stadium simply can't get that loud.  And before you blame the fans, remember that 99.5% of season tickets were renewed when they moved from Foxboro Stadium to Gillette -- and the lack of crowd noise was noted immediately at the new venue.  Same people, different stadium... you do the math.

3.  Al the Foxboro Weather God struck again.  The forecast called for rain all game long, but it only sprinkled in the first five minutes and was dry the rest of the day.  He's attended about 15 games, only one with bad weather.  For a price, he is available for weddings and bar mitzvahs -- if weather is important on your special day.  Please email for further details :)

So where does that leave us?  3-2 and leading the AFC East... has a familiar ring, doesn't it.  No chance the Patriots take the Seahawks lightly next week.  The last time they did that, the Arizona Cardinals surprised them and set them up to fall below .500 for the first time in almost a decade.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Shane Vereen's line in the game: 1 carry, 1 yard, 1 yard-per-carry, 1 touchdown, longest run 1.0 yards. Other than that run, you'd never know he even dressed for the game (no tackles, no pass receptions, and no targets in the passing game).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Cardinals held the Pats to 18 points, but they still lead the league in scoring."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  3-2!

PPS.  Trivia answer #1:

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The Patriots ran for 200+ yards 10 times in 1978, and that was the last time they ran for over 200 yards two weeks in a row.  Interestingly, the yards were spread out -- they did not have a 1,000-yard rusher that season.

PPPS.  Trivia answer #2: The Houston Texans are at +8 turnover ratio for the year, including the Monday night win over the Jets.

Patriots Blow Out Bills, 52-28

After sleepwalking through the first half, the Patriots roared back with a record 45 second-half points and drubbed their favorite whipping boys, the Buffalo Bills, 52-28.  The win, coupled with a Jets loss to San Francisco puts the Patriots in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East.  Only the losing Dolphins trail at 1-3.  Next week the Manning-led Broncos come to town for what will be an important game for both teams.

Neither team seemed interesting in winning in the first half.  The Patriots got zero points on three Buffalo turnovers, and the Bills could have put the Pats two scores behind but fumbled inside the 1 yard-line.  The Patriots had their first two fumbles of the entire season in the second quarter, but the Bills countered with two terrible interceptions and that fumble in the red zone.

But in the second half, there was no question who wanted to win.  The Bills scored on their first possession to take a 21-7 lead.  The next time they scored, it was already 42-28 Patriots and the game was effectively over.  The Patriots scored touchdowns on six consecutive possessions, and unlike the first half, they converted three Buffalo turnovers into 17 points.

Though he was masterful in the second half, Tom Brady needs to stop forcing the ball to newcomer Brandon Lloyd.  He targeted him as many times as Wes Welker in the first half, but had almost nothing to show for it.  Lloyd seems to understand the offense, but Brady has to trust that the chemistry with Lloyd will develop, and that the second half touchdown they combined on will be the norm in the future.  He can't continue to force the ball to Lloyd without risking interceptions (though thankfully there were none yesterday).

Brady's stats on the day: 22 of 36, 340 yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, 0 interceptions, 120.1 QB rating, 1 sack for 7 yards, and aside from forcing the ball to Lloyd a perfect day.  He threw it away when necessary and changed to running plays when necessary to exploit defensive alignments.  In fact, he was almost as instrumental in a dominating running game as any of the blockers.

Speaking of the running game, this was the first game in almost 30 years in which the Patriots had two 100 yard rushers.  Stevan Ridley continues his solid and sometimes spectacular running style with a 22 carry, 106 yard, 2 touchdown day.  And he picks up blitzers! Add to that rookie free agent Brandon Bolden's 16 carries, 137 yards, and 1 touchdown, and the team took 40 carries 247 yards (6.2 ypc) and got 4 touchdowns, including Brady's scramble being the fourth.  (Trivia question: name the last undrafted rookie to run for 100+ yards for the Patriots?  Extra credit if you can name the year and opponent.  Answer below.)

Bolden and Ridley ran through holes opened up by multiple players and factors.  The Bills played a soft zone so they wouldn't get beaten by the passing game, which made running easier.  But the offensive line did an outstanding job clearing out a stout Bills D-line.  And that was without star guard Logan Mankins (on the shelf for this game).  But the unexpected factor was the blocking by the tight ends.  Rob Gronkowski was the lead blocker up the middle for the lion's share of those yards.  And surprising newcomer Daniel Fells did a great job sealing the edge or kicking out on two of the touchdowns.

Not to be outdone, the receivers had two 100+ yard performances of their own.  Wes Welker made himself Mister Indispensable in the second half, with 6 catches for almost 100 yards after halftime.  He finished with 9-129, and converted first downs on 5 of 6 grabs in the second half.  Gronkowski started out shaky, with a few drops and a fumble in the first half.  But when the game was over, he had 5 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown.  And as noted, about 10 devastating blocks in the running game.  Danny Woodhead got the Patriots back in the game with a nice adjustment and run-after-catch for a 17-yard touchdown that started the six-touchdown train a-rollin'.

The defense had a bunch of stars on the day.  But none shone brighter than Rob Ninkovich or Vince Wilfork.  On a day when the Bills (who led the NFL in rushing before yesterday) could have gashed the Patriots with cut-backs and power rushes, Ninkovich and Wilfork sealed the outside and the inside respectively.  Ninkovich had 7 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble.  Wilfork had 3 tackles, 2 passes knocked down, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.  These to set the tone on the defensive line, and Chandler Jones and Jermaine Cunningham pitched in with timely plays.

The linebackers had a down day until the Bills fell way behind.  Once Dont'a Hightower went out, Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick exploited bad linebacker coverage for big gains in the passing game.  Pass coverage is not the strong suit of either Brandon Spikes or Jerod Mayo.  And even though Spikes did make one nice play in pass coverage and Mayo got a tipped-ball interception, the mid-level passing game is what kept the Bills alive.  Both players are more run-stoppers, and Spikes had a huge game in that area, forcing the first-half fumble that kept the score close.  But the fact remains; if Buffalo hadn't insisted on giving the game away, we might be talking about the team's weakness and lack of depth at linebacker (Tracy White, really?).  But of course, a win cures all ills...

The secondary was also up-and-down on the day.  Devin McCourty nabbed two interceptions and knocked away two passes.  He also did a great job in run support (and always does).  However, he also let up at least two long passes, and just about everyone in the secondary missed Donald Jones on his 68-yard jaunt.  Sterling Moore and Kyle Arrington continued to battle every down.  It isn't perfect with either of them, but mostly teams seem to pick on McCourty, so neither gave up a ton.

Rookie Tayvon Wilson looks like the real deal.  He got his second interception yesterday, and recovered a fumble, too.  He and safety Patrick Chung give the secondary some attitude and swagger, and they are sorely in need of that as teams continue to attack them as the weakest part of the defense.  Safety Steve Gregory impresses every game, although in the interest of full disclosure, both he and Chung missed the boat on Buffalo's second touchdown, letting them split the middle for an easy pitch-and-catch.

On special teams, Stephen Gostkowski's case of the "yips" showed up in the first half.  He missed two field goals, one wide right and one wide left.  He needs to get himself together before those misses cost the Patriots another game (as they did against the Ravens last week and the Cardinals the week before).  Punter Zoltan Mesko did a nice job, both punting and holding.  Though it's unclear if long-snapper Danny Aiken is putting it where it should be on field goals.  It looks like those snaps are a little close to the body of the holder; but that might be what they want, since it's what they get week after week.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels made great halftime adjustments.  It probably shouldn't have taken until the half, but getting back to Wes Welker and pounding the running game against five- and six-defensive back sets was the way to go.  And new tight ends coach George Godsey appears to be doing quite well, my preseason concerns notwithstanding.  Each new tight end seems to work into the offense well -- if not catching passes, at least doing a good job blocking.

So where does that leave us?  The Bills had a chance to go up 2.5 games over the Patriots (including the tie-breaker), but the comeback win basically gives the Patriots a 0.5 game lead over the Bills in the division.  The Broncos come to town next, and they have traditionally given the Patriots fits when they have good quarterbacking.  Well, it doesn't get much better than Peyton Manning, so things will not be easy this week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Oh, what to choose... the 45 points in the second half (NFL record), the two 100-yard rushers *and* two 100-yard receivers (only the second time in NFL history), or the 580 total yards (4th most in Patriots history).  I will go with Brady's astounding 19-2 record against the Bills.  I doubt there are any quarterbacks with that kind of record against a divisional opponent in league history.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If Gostkowski hits his field goals, the Patriots are 4-0 this morning."

Bonus Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Remember the Raven's debacle?  24 total penalties for 218 yards.  Against the Bills it was 4 penalties for 27 yards.  Welcome back, real refs!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  2-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer

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None other than BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 105 yards on 26 carries against these same Buffalo Bills on November 9, 2008.