Patriots Preview 2021: Special Teams & Coaching

And we are on to the special teams and coaching. Here are my thoughts on those areas.

1. Kicking Themselves?

Will the Patriots regret going with rookie Quinn Nordin as their placekicker? He was inconsistent in the preseason, hitting some long field goals and missing some short ones.

I think the team sees a pretty easy schedule early on and they are using the first three games as an audition for Nordin. They have Nick Folk on the practice squad in case Nordin can't handle the pressure. But if he can, he'd be a big improvement over Folk, who lacks the leg to hit anything very long at all.

Additionally, it could take the pressure off punter Jake Bailey, who has to kickoff because of Folk's age and lack of depth on his kicks.

2. Returners

Gunner Olszewski was the Pro Bowl kick returner last year, and it was well deserved. He improved a lot during the year, and could be better this year with more experience and knowledge of his teammates.

Matthew Slater and Justin Bethel are back, both playing key roles in kick coverage. Bethel has been better than Slater the last few seasons, which is impressive because Slater has made the Pro Bowl himself about 3,000 times.

Bailey is invaluable, both punting (a Pro Bowler, too) and with his directional kickoffs.

3. Coaching 'Em Up

My blogging was truncated last year, so I didn't get to mention one of the bigger stories of 2020: the replacement of long-time offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia. In fact, the Patriots offensive line played very well. But apparently it took two men to replace Scar: Col Popovich and Carmen Bricillo were here last year. And Billy Yates was added this year as an Assistant O-line coach, I guess Scar had extremely big shoes to fill.

I wish the team would decide on a defensive play-caller. In the preseason it still appeared that Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo were splitting time at it. By now I'd expect they would know who did a better job.

And I will say that the tight ends didn't show much of anything under Nick Caley last year. I hope he does better with better players. Because if this talented group doesn't do well, it'll be a mark against his coaching acumen. 

4. Back To Basics

I think Bill Belichick relishes the chance to take his team back to basics. Ball security, controlled passing game, stop the run, good situationally (third downs, 2:00 drills, etc.), defensive flexibility, solid kicking game, and players who will run the scheme as he envisions it.

That is how the Patriots won their first three Super Bowls. But since 2007 it had become high-flying offense with defense that tried to hold on and special teams that tried not to make mistakes. They won three Lombardi trophies during that time, but there is no way he liked the game against Seattle (really bad in the last 2:00 of each half) or the Falcons (turnovers).

The last Super Bowl over the Rams was more to his taste. Stifling defense and an offense that made no mistakes and took advantage of the one real opportunity it had.

I suspect BB will like getting back to BB-football. Year 1 of that starts on Sunday

Next up: The Schedule!

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS 0-0!

Pats Preview 2021: The Defense

The Patriots didn't just improve on offense. The defense looks a lot better overall, though the absence of corner Stephon Gilmore is a glaring problem.

Here is how the D got better and how they'll look different than last season.

1. Improvement At (Nearly) Every Position

The front seven is much improved across the board. Free agent lineman Davon Godchaux and rookie lineman Christian Barmore both look like perfect fits for a 4-3 Belichick defense. Tough, big, run stuffers who can one- or two-gap and allow the team to let the linebackers and safeties run free to the ball.

The linebackers went from non-existent (they actually started 1 linebacker twice last season!) to a huge strength. Dont'a Hightower returned from a COVID-year opt-out, Kyle Van Noy came back after a year in Miami, second-year 'backer Josh Uche looks like a play-destroyer, and free agent Matthew Judon (from Baltimore) made play after play in the preseason.

This group is so good that Harvey Langi flashed in the preseason and Ja'Whaun Bentley looked great -- and neither cracked the starting lineup!

More later on the secondary, the one place where the team took a step back

2. MJ9

The two MJ's, Mac Jones and Matthew Judon, will be the most significant off-season acquisitions. Judon was a play destroyer in the preseason, showed a great understanding of the defensive concepts, and even though he's undersized, he did a good job holding the edge against the run.

For the old-timers here, Judon looks like Adalius Thomas with a coaching staff more willing to use his versatility and to blitz on more plays. In other words, Judon looks like the real deal; so watch out for #9 on your scorecard.

3. 'Backers Are Back

Last year's linebackers were an embarrassment. When Bentley is your best and you have to play a rookie safety (Kyle Duggar) at LB for multiple games, you know you've shorted yourself at the position.

Bring back Hightower and Van Noy, add Judon, and get another year of improvement from Bentley and especially Uche, and suddenly it looks like a real strength.

And it's important, because Belichick has traditionally based his defense a line that occupies space and players and linebackers who rush the passer, hold the edge against the run, and fly to the football. It was tough to watch last year. This year it'll look a lot more like a normal BB defense.

4. Safety Switch

Patrick Chung retired after quite the career and three Super Bowl championships. But the Patriots are about as ready as they can be for the transition.

Adrian Phillips and Kyle Duggar are both in their second years with the team, and both picked up the defense quickly and were tough on receivers over the middle. Duggar did play some linebacker last year, which makes me respect him even more, because he isn't really built to take on tight ends or O-linemen.

5. The Elephant In The Room: Cornerback

With Gilmore sidelined to start the year (out until at least week 6), JC Jackson is your new #1 corner, with a bunch of JAGs ("just another guy") behind him. Many in the media speculate that Gilmore is sorta-holding-out, claiming an injury so he only has to play half a year to earn his dough.

I'm not convinced; he'd make a lot more next season if he played the entire year. But if it's true, then the Patriots get him back for the tougher part of their schedule and any potential playoff games. Not all bad.

If Jackson is the best corner, expect him to take their opponent's #2 receiver and the team to double-up on the #1. They've done that with players as great at Darrelle Revis, when it made sense, and it isn't a bad way to go. It mostly means the other team has to beat you with their #3 wideout, and not many teams have enough talent to make that work.

6. Putting It Together

The new big guys on the D-line should shore up the running defense, which was suspect last year. Though IMO it was mostly suspect because they didn't have any decent linebackers. So pairing the new linemen with LBs could make the front seven something special.

The vastly improved linebacking corps, along with the hitters at safety, should be able to help cover up the issues at corner. 

New England might have the most talented front seven in the league. And given that, I don't expect as much blitzing as last year. The 2020 team had to take chances that the 2021 team shouldn't need to take to slow down teams.

Next post: Special Teams, Coaching, and The Schedule!

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Pats Preview 2021: The Offense

Hello all, how have you been of late? Quite the off-season, wasn't it?

The Patriots didn't take their 2020 sub-.500 season lying down. They spent a record amount on free agents, welcomed back several COVID-year opt-outs, and drafted their QB of the future... or is that the present?

Here are the the key points on offense as we head into a season with lots of new faces, what they mean to the team, and how they are likely to integrate the new folks and scheme things up for the rookie QB.

1. Improvement At Every Position

It's basically inarguable that the Patriots improved every position group on offense. In 2020 they had among the worst quarterback play, the least talented wideouts (especially after Julian Edelman got injured), and had the least productive tight ends by a country mile.

Even the running backs and offensive line are better this season, even though they were both very good last year.

2. MJ10

Rookie quarterback Mac Jones beat out Cam Newton for the starting gig. He seemed to grasp the offense quickly, including blitz adjustments and ball security -- both very important to the Patriots throughout Bill Belichick's time here.

Jones' skillset is more in line with how the Patriots liked to run their offense with the old man who used to play here. Quick reads and passes, largely short throws to the middle of the field and screen passes to avoid the rush.

He won't burn many teams with his feet, but his pocket awareness was good in the preseason and should improve with experience.

3. On The Run

Third-year back Damien Harris looks completely ready to take over the starting role, replacing traded back Sony Michel. J.J. Taylor is the change-of-pace back who might have his eye on James White's third-down role -- though White is back for another season.

Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson looked amazing, though most of his yards came against the second- and third-teamers in the preseason. And note: rookie backs rarely get much playing time here because they have to understand the blitz pickup to get on the field. 

Also, not to be overlooked, blocking back Jakob Johnson is back from injury and was a beast in the preseason. It looked like he missed hitting people and wanted to make up for lost time.

The Pats should lean heavily on the running game early in the year, both to control the clock and protect the young QB. Harris can do it all but they will rotate backs to keep them fresh

4. Better To Receive

Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry were the two biggest tight end prizes in free agency, and the Patriots got them both. Henry was injured in the preseason but expects to start the season playing. He and Smith move the Patriots tight ends group from dead last in the league to at least upper-third.

Given how much the Pats offense traditionally flourished with good tight end play, the addition of these two will help immensely.

At receiver, the majority of 2020 had Damiere Byrd and N'Keal Harry as the starters, so just about anything would have been an improvement. So again, they signed two big-ish names in free agency: Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne.

Bourne has been hurt this preseason, but Agholor looked good and returning receiver Jacobi Meyers looked excellent during the fake games. The receivers would have looked better with either Newton or Jones starting, but with Jones pulling the defense in with the tight ends, Agholor specifically should have lots of chances for big plays.

5. Oh! Line

The offensive line looks deep, physical, and well-coordinated. And you can't ask for much more than from that group.

They pushed other teams around in the preseason, running for 170 yards a game, 5.7ypc average, and 7 touchdowns. They were physical, did a great job in pass protection, and the choreography on screen passes as mostly impeccable.

6. Putting It Together

The team should protect Jones by leaning on the running game and the defense (more on that in my next post). In fact, this season might look a lot like 2001; lots of free agents, young QB, solid running game, and a fierce defense. Not that I expect the same result as 2001, but the season could look a lot like that year.

The coaches haven't had this much talent at tight end since Aaron Hernandez got arrested, so it'll be interesting to see how OC Josh McDaniels uses the two TEs. The running game has both power (Harris) and speed (Taylor), and James White will help Jones a lot with his third-down acumen and reliability.

I'm not convinced the wide receivers are going to be amazing. But they will make teams pay attention because they can hurt you if you go one-on-one all day long.

Next post: the Defense!

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Patriots Demolish Chargers 45-0

The Patriots destroyed the LA Chargers yesterday 45-0, their biggest road win since 2007. (Trivia question: Can you name the team they beat and/or the score of the game? Answer below.) The win brings them to 6-6, still 2.5 games back of the division leading Bills (who play tomorrow night) and 2 games out of the playoffs. Next up is the other Los Angeles team, the Rams, on a short week this Thursday.

This game was a clinic of complimentary football. Special teams made four huge plays, scoring twice, the offense used an innovative running game to keep the ball in their hands, and the defense smothered rookie Justin Herbert, intercepting him twice -- his first NFL two-INT game. And all along the coaching was ahead of the Chargers' staff, pouncing on mistakes and letting LA shoot itself in the foot time after time after time.

There isn't as much to pore over in a win this lopsided. But here are five quick observations:

1. Redemption For McDaniels

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has taken some heat this year, and rightfully so. But his game plan was outstanding on Sunday. He used a mix of slant-runs, quick-hit runs, QB option plays, and even some Wildcat (with quarterback Cam Newton in motion) to confuse and wear out the Chargers defense. However, most important was that those plays were productive.

The first drive was over 7:00 long and ended with points. And no matter how many players LA committed to stop the run, they couldn't do it effectively enough to force the Pats to abandon their game plan. 43 carries for 165 yards and 2 TDs on the ground speaks for itself.

Nicely done, Josh.

2. Spectacular Special Teams

Gunner Olszewski returned a punt 70 yards for a touchdown and another one 61 yards (which led to a field goal). Cody Davis blocked a field goal and Devin McCourty returned it 44 yards for a touchdown. Punter Jake Bailey kicked four times, three of which were downed inside the 20 yard-line. Justin Bethel had three tackles on special teams and saved a punt from the end zone (which was downed at the 5 yard-line by Davis).

Additionally, the kicking units drew penalties against the Chargers, including a 12-man penalty on a quick-snap that got the Pats a first down. This wasn't by accident; LA is known to have bad special teams. No doubt the Patriots spent extra time on them this week, knowing they could spell the difference in the game.

They did.

3. Bill Belichick Versus Young QBs

Most young quarterbacks are confused the first time they play a Belichick-led defense. I haven't updated this stat in a while, but he has something like 90% wins against quarterbacks in their 8th - 15th starts in the NFL, which is right where the Chargers' Justin Herbert was. It also explains how the Patriots held back Kyler Murray and Arizona last week -- he was making his 27th NFL start and facing a BB defense for the first time.

This won't help much this Thursday; Jared Goff is in his fifth season and has played the Patriots before.

All of which is to say please don't overreact to the last two weeks. Those wins were predictable; the real season begins now!

4. Youth Being Served

Rookies making an impact:

• Linebacker Josh Uche has a motor that won't stop and hits hard
• Safety Kyle Dugger has 29 tackles on the year and is seeing increased playing time
• Tackle Mike Onwenu is solidly a starter and well-rated by Pro Football Focus

Second-year players making an impact:

• Running back Damien Harris is the team's leading rusher with 641 yards on 126 carries (5.1ypc) and 2 touchdowns
• Receiver Jakobi Meyers leads the team with 38 catches and is a solid route-runner and blocker downfield
• Defensive End Chase Winovich gets better every week and made two impact plays yesterday
• Receiver/returner Olszewski not only had three great returns in the last two games, he had a long touchdown catch-and-run
• Fullback Jakob Johnson's blocking is excellent and he is now working into the occasional short-passing game
• Linebacker Terez Hall is helping shore up the thin linebacking corps

For a team with so many holes, they are filling many of them with younger players this year. If 2020 is a bridge year, then the future across that bridge looks bright -- if they can get the QB situation settled.

5. Blueprint For The Playoffs?!?!

I know, Jim Mora would have torn my head off for saying the P-word. But if the Pats do somehow make the playoffs, they will likely face a gauntlet of road games against teams like Kansas City and/or Pittsburgh.

The advantage they have is that crowd noise won't be as big a factor with smaller crowds (or no crowds) at stadiums because of COVID-19. Also, teams that play sound fundamentals, are good on defense, and can get a few plays on special teams -- those teams often do well on the road, even in the playoffs.

Earlier this year the Patriots likely would have beaten Kansas City in KC if their quarterback hadn't contracted the coronavirus. And the Steelers in Pittsburgh has never scared the Patriots; they've won two Super Bowls after beating the Steelers on the road in the playoffs.

They'll likely need more from the passing game if they expect to even make the playoffs. And they have the next six games to figure that out. One note of optimism; supposedly Julian Edelman could be back in a week or two, which could only help the offense.

Where does that leave us? The needle is pointing up at the right time. Newton has shown a good rapport with both Damiere Byrd and Meyers, as well as James White out of the backfield. McDaniels' challenge now is figuring out how to incorporate more passing without risking the run game or a loss (the Patriots can't afford one).

Biggest on-going concern: Lack of explosive plays on offense. The creative game plan from Sunday shows they can win without chunk plays in the passing game. But as they head down the stretch their margin for error is as small as their biggest plays.

It's great to get huge returns or blocked kicks for touchdowns. That doesn't mean the Patriots want to count on that every week.

Non-QB MVP: the toughest call of the year, but the award goes to special teams ace Justin Bethel, who was integral to the blocked field goal, had big blocks on both of Olszewski's long returns, had three special teams tackles, and made a play to down a punt inside the five yard-line.

Could have been a lot of people (Olszewski himself, for example), but Bethel gets the nod.

Statistical oddity: I've never seen a team be so horrific on fourth down in my life. Here is the astonishing futility of LA on fourth downs:

• Missed field goal
• Punt returned for touchdown
• False start penalty from punt formation
• Blocked field goal returned for touchdown
• Interception
• 61-yard punt return
• Sacked for 9 yards
• Incomplete pass
• Incomplete pass

Add in that they had 12 men on the field on a Patriots fourth-down punt, which gave the Pats a first down, and their failures on fourth down become legendary. Just awful!

Water-cooler wisdom: "Belichick is so awful at talent evaluation that he has nine major contributors from the last two drafts."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-6!

PPS. Trivia Answer: the Patriots beat the Bills 56-10 in November of 2007, a 46-point win that eclipses the 45-pointer from yesterday.

Patriots Squeeze Past Cardinals 20-17

The Patriots held on for a 20-17 victory over the Arizona Cardinals at Gillette Stadium. The win put them at 5-6, still a full three-games behind the victorious Bills. Next up is a multi-day trip to Los Angeles, to take on the Chargers this weekend and the Rams the following Thursday night.

New England dominated special teams and played excellent situational defense. Most years that would have been enough for a blowout win. But with the sputtering offense, the Pats had to hold on in a game they normally would have dominated. It was a good win, but doesn't really give one a lot of hope for the season.

Special teams had four important plays:

1. Punter Jake Bailey booted a perfect punt that landed at the one yard-line and was downed at the three.
2. Donte Moncrief returned a kickoff 53 yards to setup a short field on the Patriots first touchdown.
3. Gunner Olszewski returned a punt 58 yards to setup the Patriots game-tying field goal in the third quarter. (Note: it should have been a touchdown return, but for a bogus penalty call.)
4. Nick Folk kicked a 50-yard field goal to win the game as time expired.

In addition, gunner Justin Bethel stopped a guy cold on a punt that outkicked its coverage, and Bailey's kickoffs consistently came down at the one-yard line, forcing AZ to return the ball. (Not that I love that strategy, but apparently the Patriots coaches do -- so, well-executed, young man!)

Conversely, Arizona didn't get much out of their special teams. In fact, their kicker missed a potential game-winning field goal with 1:47 left in the game. This phase of the game was a complete mismatch from start to finish.

On defense, the Patriots played mostly five-man fronts to keep AZ quarterback Kyler Murray in the pocket. The plan wasn't without its bad moments, but they bottled up Murray for most of the game, hitting him four times, sacking him twice, and allowing him just 31 yards on the ground.

The team gave up yards, especially on intermediate passes against the linebackers. But as has been the case most of the year, they played their best when their opponents moved inside the 20 yard line. Their goal-line stand to end the half was one of the most impressive defensive sequences I've seen all year.

Lineman Adam Butler had a great game: 5 tackles, 1 sack (9 yards), 3 QB hits, and a pass deflected at the line. And the linebackers actually did their job, at least against the run. Ja'Whaun Bentley led the team with 13 tackles, and his running make Terez Hall had seven of his own.

The problem in this game, and for most of the year, is that the Patriots offense simply can't put together sustained drives. On Sunday, their scoring drives covered 41, 35, 31, and 18 total yards. Without a short field, they couldn't string first downs together to maintain possession and make progress down the field.  They had two eight-play drives against Arizona: one for 20 yards and one for 35 yards. That doesn't cut it in the NFL.

Quarterback Cam Newton completed just nine passes, was sacked three times, and threw two interceptions. His QB rating of 23.3 would usually earn one a trip to the bench. But apparently the Patriots believe even less in Jarrett Stidham and/or Brian Hoyer, otherwise Cam would be riding the pine already.

Newton did run the ball more effectively: 9 rushes for 46 yards (5.1 ypc). But overall the running game was mostly contained, notching just 110 total yards, including Newton's total. They benched their left tackle in favor of a guy off the scrap heap, and Newton wasn't exactly protected like the Crown Jewels either.

The receivers? Gimme a break! The only two receivers who caught anything were Jakobi Meyers (5 catches for 52 yards) and Damiere Byrd (3 for 33). N'Keal Harry looks like as big a bust as any first-round pick Belichick has made. And maybe it's time to play the young tight ends; Ryan Izzo certainly isn't giving you anything.

The only big coaching whiff is offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' inability to design an offense that works. IMO he has to commit to the run and stick with it. Once teams cheat up to stop the run, call play-action passes and hit Meyers or Byrd on mid-level outs or crosses.

TB12 isn't walking through that door, and neither is Gronk or Randy Moss. McDaniels has to find a way to put together sustained drives or the team is going absolutely nowhere.

One other coaching quibble; can we please clean up the pre-snap and mental-error penalties. They had a false-start in quiet stadium conditions, too many men on the field on defense, and defensive penalties gave the Cardinals first-downs on two third-downs and a fourth-down.

Where does that leave us? 5-6 and headed in the right direction, at least for this week. The twin-LA games could go either way, but if the Pats expect to make the post-season, they better shoot for 2-0 on the west coast.

Biggest on-going issue: Lack of consistency on offense. You don't have to look that far back to see how it's done; they had touchdown drives of 82- and 85-yards against Houston last week and three touchdown drives of 75-yards against Baltimore the week before.

Non-QB MVP: Adam Butler, with the aforementioned stat line.

Statistical oddity: Matt Cassel is the last New England quarterback to play a full game and win with fewer yards than Newton's 84 yards against the Cardinals. Naturally Cassel beat the Buffalo Bills (final score was 13-0).

BTW, Brady did it once in his career; against the Dolphins in 2004.

Water-cooler wisdom: "I guess this is why other fans hated the Brady-led Patriots so much, their offenses probably looked like ours does now."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS: 5-6!

Patriots Outlast Ravens 23-17

For the second straight week the Patriots came from behind to post a close win, topping the Jets (30-27) last week and the Ravens last night (23-17). The win "catapults" New England to a 4-5 record, 2.5 games behind the Bills (who lost) and 2 games behind the Dolphins (who won) in the AFC East. Next up is a trip to Houston to take on the 2-7 Texans -- a team they rarely lose to.

A few weeks back I compared this year's Pats to those of the early 1990s. And that wasn't a compliment. They were playing poor situational offense and defense, committing way too may turnovers, costing themselves with untimely penalties, and didn't seem to be improving as the year went on.

Well, the last two weeks they remind me more of the 2001 Patriots. (No, I'm not saying what you think I'm saying -- please slow your roll!) They were down 27-17 late in the Jets game but scored 13 unanswered points in the last 6:04 to eke out the win. And last night they ran the ball, minimized mistakes (second straight game with no turnovers), and waited for the other team to wilt under the pressure.

And that's exactly what the Ravens did. They had three 15-yard penalties, two bad snaps that cost them scoring chances, a number of dropped passes, and they took way too long to adjust to the Pats offensive game plan -- which is a coaching choke, IMO.

The other coaching choke on the Ravens' sideline was calling so many pass plays in such bad conditions. The Ravens threw the ball 34 times, while the Patriots threw just 18 passes. Hell, the Ravens completed more passes (24) than the Pats attempted -- but in the sloppy conditions it made more sense to attack with their running game and keep possession of the ball.

In fact, the Patriots running attack was their most potent weapon. Damien Harris ran 22 times for a career-high 121 yards, and he ran under control and repeatedly finishsed by delivering punishment to defenders. Rex Burkhead had some key carries, and the team ended up with 39 carries for 173 yards (4.4 ypc).

QB Cam Newton was kept mostly clean (1 sack, 3 QB hits), he got two critical first downs on QB sneaks, and was effective in the passing game, completing 76% of his passes (13 of 17), with 1 touchdown, importantly no interceptions, and a 114.3 QB rating. He seems to grasp the offense better each week and he'll need to continue to minimize turnovers because this team doesn't have the margin for error they had in the past.

Newton was not the highest rated passer, however. That honor goes to receiver Jakobi Meyers, who completed his one pass for a 24-yard touchdown for a 158.3 QB rating. Meyers is also the only Pats WR who caught a pass or was even targeted in the game. The rest of the completions were to running backs and one for tight end Ryan Izzo.

The offensive line deserves a shout-out, not just for this game but for being the team's most consistent unit to this point in the season. They showed power in the running attack, pushed linemen to the second level on multiple plays, and did a good job in pass protection when needed. Rookie Michael Onwenu has trouble with outside pass rushers. But other than that, he and everyone else on the line has been great so far this year.

And special shout-out to David Andrews, who handled his center duties much better than his opposite number on the Ravens. Not one bad snap all night, as opposed to multiple bad snaps by the Baltimore center.

The defense fluctuates between shutdown and barely hanging on. I guess that makes it exciting, but I'm not sure I want that much excitement. Something clicked in the fourth quarter of the Jets game. They have given up just 16 points in their last five quarters, their best such stretch since the opening five quarters of the year.

Last week corner J.C. Jackson looked awful against the Jets, though he came up with a timely interception during the fourth-quarter rally. But yesterday he looked great, with coverage tight enough that he was rarely thrown at -- and when he was, he had one pass defended and another INT. Devin McCourty bounced back from a poor showing at NY to post one of his better games of the year.

The secondary has held it together without star corner Stephon Gilmore, going 2-1 in his absence. But I'm sure everyone on D would like to have him back. One note on rookie safety Kyle Dugger: he led the team in tackles with 12, two ahead of another rookie, Terez Hall.

Linebacker Chase Winovich looks like a new man after returning from a semi-benching. He's attacking the quarterback on passing plays and holding up pretty well against the outside run. I like what I see from rookie Josh Uche, and second-year man Hall improved his play from last week. It's important to have more talent at linebacker. The team started the season in a 5-1-5 because the only linebacker they trusted was Ja'Whaun Bentley (and frankly he hasn't played well this year).

The D-line and linebackers (and whatever secondary players were up near the line) did a great job with spacing and making sure tackles last night. It was imperative to minimize big plays, which are what feed the Ravens offense. Making them take 10+ plays in a drive gives them that many more chances to make mistakes, which they did last night (see above).

Forcing Baltimore to work down the field slowly meant they only had three scoring drives in the game. Commentators will often say it's important to keep star QBs on the sideline. But Belichick knows eventually they get their turn -- his job is to make their life as hard as possible.

Both teams have very good special teams; the only big difference in the game was the missed extra point by the Pats kicker, Nick Folk. He's lucky it didn't come back to bite him. And even though the conditions were difficult, he has to be able to convert extra points.

The coaching staff came in with a great game plan. Neutralize the Ravens' blitz packages and secondary play by running and staying out of second- and third-and-long downs. It took Baltimore three quarters before they started to run-blitz, and by then the home team had a 10-point lead.

Where does that leave us? If the Patriots take care of business in Houston, they will be no worse than two games out of the division lead (Buffalo has a bye week, Miami could tie Buffalo with a win). Buffalo is likely to revert to form down the stretch, I'm more worried about the Dolphins because head man Brian Flores is a great coach!

Biggest on-going issue: It has to be the lack of explosiveness at wide receiver. Although that is unlikely to be fixed this year; not many great receivers out there to be signed. The lack of explosion and weapons showed last night; only Meyers was even targeted out of the wide receiver group.

Non-QB MVP: It's Harris just barely over Dugger. Good to be getting contributions from young players!

Statistical oddity: Despite having won two fewer games, the Patriots are actually closer to the division lead (2.5 games back of the Bills) than the Ravens (3 games back of the Steelers). Tough playing in a division with an undefeated team.

Water-cooler wisdom: "Didn't the Pats win a Super Bowl two years ago with ground-and-pound?" #JustSayin

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-5!

Patriots Lose To Bills, 24-21

The Patriots lost their fourth straight game, falling to the Bills in Buffalo for the first time in a while, 24-21. The loss dropped the team to 2-5, more than the official 3.5 games behind Buffalo in the AFC East (because now are behind in tiebreakers, too). Up next is a horrible Monday Night matchup: Patriots (2-5) versus Jets (0-8).

(No doubt ESPN is searching their broadcast contract for a way out of that dog!)

As the game ended, Cam Newton fumbled with the Patriots in range for a tying field goal. It was heartbreaking after the team came back twice. But even though that was unforgivably bad ball security with a chance to tie the game, it was far from the only mistake.

The team committed multiple pre-snap penalties in the first half (false start, illegal shift, and delay of game), skipped one chance to get a TD before the half and settled for a field goal on third-down, and failed to recover an onside kick (good execution, better play by the Bills).

The Patriots just don't have enough talent or continuity to make those kinds of mistakes. As you can see from the stat line, there wasn't much to separate the two teams, but the Patriots just didn't make specific plays when they needed to or shot themselves in the foot with untimely penalties.

There were bright spots. Running back Damien Harris ran for 6.4 ypc and 102 yards overall. And Rex Burkhead had two absolutely huge runs on third-downs, when it looked like he'd be stopped short of the mark but Rex worked hard to make the extra yards and move the chains.

The offensive line largely played well, the two glaring problems being penalties that wiped out big plays. 

Newton found some receiving rhythm with Jakobi Meyers (6 catches for 58 yards) and Damiere Byrd (3 for 39). Maybe it's a good thing that Julian Edelman is on the shelf; it might open up opportunities for younger players.

The team continues to get run over on defense (over 200 yards yesterday). That's how it is when you have zero linebackers you trust and play six- and seven-defensive backs. It makes it easier for teams to run the ball. But I suspect that is their plan; let teams run the ball but stop them for field goals and then score touchdowns.

That's the plan. But yesterday the Bills scored 3 TDs and just 1 FG, and the Patriots didn't score their first touchdown until the third quarter. Honestly, the last time that plan worked was in the Kansas City game, and the Patriots lost that one anyway.

The Pats only linebacker, Ja'Whaun Bentley, looked awful on Sunday; out of position, arm tackles that backs easily shed, blitzing to the wrong hole -- he was a mess. He was easily outpaced by rookie Josh Uche, who could blossom into something; though it'll probably too late to do much this season.

The secondary actually held up well. But they were undermined by the offensive ineptitude -- and one really bad penalty of their own (a Devin McCourty neutral zone infraction that gave the Bills a free first down). They also ended up making a ton of tackles because the Bills RBs kept getting to the second level.

Overall the coaching should be beating itself up for their off-season failures. Knowing that Tom Brady was leaving, they should have simplified the offense so the receivers would at least have a clue where to go. Offense isn't always about complexity and confusing your opponent. Teams like Pittsburgh ran the same simple offense for years and just out-executed the other team. The Patriots would be better than 2-5 if they'd gone simple and built from there.

Where does that leave us? Not a lot of options except to sell off some valuable pieces at the trading deadline. The team mostly needs to decide if the rebuild is for 2021 or 2022, trading players and getting draft picks to go with the plan they envision.

Biggest on-going issue: No offensive consistency. The defense held its own yesterday, but the offense couldn't string together drives the entire first half.

Non-QB MVP: Harris, with a nod to the O-line and to Burkhead for keeping two drives alive.

Statistical oddity: Next Monday the Patriots and Jets will enter the game a combined 2-13, a 13.3% winning percentage. The last time the Pats played a game with such a low combined winning percentage this late in the year was December 12, 1993, when the 1-11 Patriots played the 1-11 Bengals, for a combined winning percentage of 8.3%.

(Trivia Question: Who was the Patriots head coach in that game? Harder Trivia Question: Who was the Bengals head coach in that game? [Hint: his dad was also an NFL head coach.] Answers below.)

Water-cooler wisdom: "We're on to 2021."

Keep the faith?

- Scott

PS. 2-5!

PPS. Trivia Answers:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The Patriots head coach that day was Bill Parcells. The Bengals were helmed by David Shula, son of Don Shula.