Patriots 2012 Off-Season: Defense

Unlike on offense, the Patriots off-season moves definitely improved their defense. Their precipitous fall in 2011 forced them to reconsider how they acquire players and prepared them for a change of scheme sure to be made in 2012. But lingering questions must be answered before passing full judgment.

Here is part two of my off-season overview -- this time the focus is on the defense.

Free-Agent Departures

Much like on offense, the Patriots lost only one significant player and one semi-significant player. However, that might not have been enough losses for a defense that ranked 20th in defensive passer rating, 28th in defensive yards per pass, and a middling 15th in points allowed.

Defensive end Mark Anderson left in free agency, compounding the hit by signing with the  division rival Buffalo Bills. Anderson was not a perfect fit in New England, but he was better than many recent free-agent signings. He started only one game in 2011, but his numbers (10 sacks, and 29 tackles from the defensive end position) are all the more impressive for a part-time player.

The only other loss of any significance is linebacker Gary Guyton, who went to another division rival, the Miami Dolphins. Guyton lacked the speed to cover tightly enough in the passing game and the size to hold up against the run long-term. He was valuable as a part-time fill-in, but when he replaced Jerod Mayo or Brandon Spikes, the drop-off was noticeable.

Free-Agent Arrivals

In free agency, Patriots made no big splashes on the defensive side of the ball. They filled in some depth and brought in players who can thrive in what should be a switch back to the 3-4 defense.

Defensive ends Jonathan Farene (6-4, 292 pounds) and Scott Trevor (6-5, 255) have the size to play outside linebacker/end in the 3-4. And defensive tackle Marcus Harrison (6-3, 316) is another space-occupying linemen to add to the Patriots stable of such players. And those moves, along with the draft (more on that later) indicate that the 2011 change to a 4-3 will be a one-year experiment and the team will switch back to the 3-4 this year.

The team also added veteran defensive backs Will Allen from Miami and Steve Gregory from San Diego. On most teams you'd say neither has a chance to start, but the Patriots defensive backfield was a shambles last year. So even a 33-year old soon-to-be-safety like Allen can earn a starting spot if Devin McCourty can't return to his 2010 Pro Bowl form.

Players Drafted

The Patriots switched up their usual "trade down" philosophy, instead trading up twice in the first round to get players they coveted. It was a stunning turn of events, catching most of the media and fans off-guard. But they had to get better players to reverse the disastrous move to a 4-3 and get back to head coach Bill Belichick's familiar 3-4.

Either of the first two picks could fill a void left six years ago when Willie McGinest went to Cleveland. Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones (6-5 , 260) and Alabama linebacker Dont'a Hightower (6-3, 270) both have the size and speed to bring outside pressure and hold up against the run in the "elephant" position made famous by McGinest.  (Hightower can also play inside linebacker -- important versatility with oft-injured Brandon Spikes slotted next to Jerod Mayo.) And the Patriots did not trade up to watch them sit, so expect one or both to crack the starting lineup.

The Patriots also grabbed highly touted Arkansas defensive end Jake Bequette, who at 6-4, 265 is in the same mold as the first-rounders. Most observers expected Bequette to go a lot earlier in the draft. He provides even more competition for those valuable starting spots, something Belichick likes to have at all positions (except for the starting quarterback).

The rest of the draft showed the weakness of the Patriots secondary. They took Illinois free safety Tavon Wilson, Ohio State defensive back Nate Ebner, and Nebraska corner back Alfonzo Dennard. 2011 featured by far the worst Patriots defensive backfield since owner Robert Kraft bought the team -- a span of 18 years. This draft simply confirmed it; they must get better players (and coaching) in the secondary.

X-Factor Players

Three big question marks hang over the Patriots defense as the team nears training camp. If these X-factors go in their favor, the defense will be much improved. But if they go the other way, the defense will struggle again, especially late in games when teams have figured out their schemes for the week.

First and foremost, the Patriots must re-sign defensive end Andre Carter. An injury cost Carter a chance to play in the post-season last year, but his dynamic skills and non-stop motor earned him whatever the Patriots have to pay to retain his services. He played the "elephant" position better than any of the pretenders to McGinest's throne, and after five years of looking, the Patriots can't let him slip through their fingers.

Safety Patrick Chung and his injury-prone body are next on the list. Chung is similar to Bob Sanders (during his Colts seasons), an impact player who was invaluable as long as he stayed on the field. Chung doesn't have quite the impact Sanders did, but he steadies the secondary and brings a physical attitude. If he stays healthy, his presence is as important as anyone this side of Carter.

And lastly, Devin McCourty needs to return to form at corner. The team shifted him to safety at the end of 2011.  But it would be a waste of talent to have McCourty (who was a legitimate Pro-Bowl corner as a rookie in 2010) play safety instead of corner. There were indications that his problems last year stemmed from the different techniques associated with the 4-3.  If that's true, he should round back into peak form with the move to the 3-4 this year.

Summary

The defense played better as 2011 went along, but they were never anywhere near a top-ten unit. The signing of Albert Haynesworth and associated move to a 4-3 couldn't have gone worse. Haynesworth was cut before mid-season, a promising rookie corner regressed, the team gave up big plays week after week, and the ended the season with a safety tandem of McCourty and wide receiver Matthew Slater.

The switch back to the 3-4 should be a foregone conclusion. They found 3-4 personnel last year (Carter and the 2012 free agent signees), they drafted 3-4 personnel this year (just the right size to play outside, with the versatility to move inside if necessary), and their veterans played better in the 3-4 in previous years (Mayo, McCourty, and Vince Wilfork).

Grade: B+ (upgrade to A+ if they sign Carter).

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  0-0!

Patriots 2012 Off-Season: Offense

The 2012 Patriots off-season featured a lot of depth-building and some key additions that could bring new dimensions to an already excellent offense. There were also changes on defense that underlined a different philosophy of player acquisition, and the team made some underplayed changes to the coaching staff.

After five months of work to improve the team, here is the first of two parts of my off-season overview -- focusing today on the offense.

Free-Agent Departures

The Patriots only lost one key piece and one complimentary player on offense -- so far.  Training camp is likely to bring more changes. But for now, here are the players who left the team since last year.

By far the biggest loss of the off-season is left tackle Matt Light, who retired after 11 years, 3 Pro Bowls, and an All-Pro 2007 season. Light received mixed reviews from fans, but he started 87% of the games since entering the league, including 90 of 96 possible starts in the last 6 years. And despite fan ambivalence, left tackle play dropped of significantly when Light was sidelined.

Steady running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis got his free agent payday with Cincinnati. Green-Ellis will never be mistaken for a Pro-Bowler, but he rushed for 24 touchdowns the last 2 seasons (third in the NFL), averaged 4.0 yards a carry for his career, and still has never fumbled in the NFL. His steady play will be missed, but the Patriots passing game carries the team, so there was no way they would pay him as much as Cincinnati.

The Patriots cut media Chad Ochocino, but in the end it makes no difference. Ochocinco never learned the offense and was either a non-factor a net-negative for the team last season.

Free-Agent Arrivals

For a team that finished 2011 second in the NFL in yards-per-pass and third in quarterback rating, the Patriots free-agent signings belied some insecurity about their passing game. They signed three receivers to diversify the passing attack, and also added a running back and a guard to provide depth and flexibility.

They brought in receiver Brandon Lloyd (late of St. Louis) who flourished under Josh McDaniels system, with a stat line that impresses even now: 77 catches for 1,448 yards (18.8 ypc), 32 plays of 20+ yards, and an amazing 72 first downs (93.5%). Lloyd might not break as many big ones this year, but if he can help keep the chains moving and provide a secondary target in the red zone, the signing will pay off in spades.

Receiver Jabar Gaffney returns to the Patriots after a standout season in Washington. He notched 68 catches for 947 yards and 50 first downs -- and that was with Rex Grossman and John Beck slinging the ball. His rapport with Patriots quarterback Tom Brady gives him a chance to unseat Deion Branch and provide a more effective outlet receiver.

Donte Stallworth also came over from Washington, but no guarantee he will even make the team. He was a complimentary player for the Patriots in 2007; however, that was a long time ago, and he hasn't impressed lately.

Longtime Colts running back Joseph Addai was added for depth and experience, along with the possibility of replacing Kevin Faulk as the third-down back. Addai's performance was down in 2011, suffering along with the entire Colts offense. He is one of the Patriots "value" signings with big upside and very little risk; however, they need a more productive and better blocking back on third down than incumbent Danny Woodhead.

Seattle guard Robert Gallery was brought in to shore up an offensive line that suffered too many injuries last year. Only guard Brian Waters started all 16 games on the offensive line in 2011, and the mixing and matching caused real problems with quarterback protection. Head coach Bill Belichick has always been impressed with Gallery, and the hope is that he will help stabilize the line.

X-Factor Players

Even with the added talent, two of last year's best players need to continue their excellent performances, and two positions are in need of players to step up their games.

Receiver Wes Welker alternatively complained and then accepted and then complained and then accepted being franchised. Oh the flip side, tight end Rob Gronkowski received the richest contract ever for a tight end, even though he had a few years left on his rookie deal. However, both players need to put the contracts behind them and concentrate on continuing their incredible production.

Welker still makes the offense go, averaging 7.6 catches, 98 yards, and almost 5 first downs a game. No one this side of Tom Brady is as important to the offense. And after an otherworldly 2011, Gronkowski can't get comfortable with his new riches. Opponents will target him from the opening snap of the season, and no one knows how well he will recover from the high ankle sprain that limited him in the Super Bowl.

Second-year running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen must avoid the sophomore slump and step in for Green-Ellis. Ridley learned the offense and blocking schemes well enough to earn playing time last year, but he'll have to correct his late-season fumblitis to stay on the field in 2012. Vereen's injury-plagued 2011 cost him important development time; however, if he stays healthy the Patriots are very high on his skills.

The last X-factor is a two-man race to replace left tackle Matt Light. Two years ago, Sebastian Vollmer looked like the heir apparent, but his play has slipped since then and he was relegated to part-time in 2011. And as a rookie, last year's first-round draft pick Nate Solder saw more playing time at tight end than tackle. One of these two has to step in and protect Brady's blind side, or the offense will be down at least a notch or two.

Coaching Changes

Last but certainly not least are two key changes on the offensive coaching staff.

Offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien left for Penn State, and former Patriots coach Josh McDaniels returned from a three-year hiatus to replace O'Brien. Expect this change to work out well. O'Brien was good but not as creative as McDaniels. And McDaniels worked three years outside the organization, and his fresh perspectives are desperately needed on a New England staff that remains far too insular.

The second coaching change will likely result in a downgrade. Tight ends coach Brian Ferentz arrived with Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and the three of them made mincemeat of NFL defenses for two seasons. The two young tight ends might be talented enough that coaching doesn't matter. But it's more likely that new tight ends coach George Godsey (second year in the NFL) won't get the same production out of the pair. Godsey's best hope is that McDaniels comes up with novel new ways to get Gronkowski and Hernandez room to work with.

Summary

Uncertainty at left tackle and running back, along with less production from the tight ends, outweighs the improved receiving corps and the return of McDaniels. Center Dan Koppen will also be back from injury to solidify the offensive line. But without a doubt Ridley and Vereen will have rough patches, and it is difficult to imagine Gronkowski catching lightning in a bottle for a second straight year.

Some up, some down, but overall a neutral off-season for the offense. Not bad given their 2011 stats. But they should have worked just a bit harder to improve.

Grade: B

Giants Spoil Super Bowl Again, 21-17

The good news is that if the Patriots play the Giants next year, it means they made the Super Bowl again. The bad news... if the trend continues, they'll lose by five points next time. The Giants literally made a few more plays than the Patriots and notched a 21-17 win in Super Bowl XLII... I mean XLVI. The loss makes the Patriots 3-4 in the Super Bowl, and sends them back to the drawing board to prepare for season 13 of Tom Brady's career.

The Patriots offense missed opportunities in the first half -- a foolish safety taken by Tom Brady, and a blocked pass on third down that forced a field goal instead of a touchdown. And then they couldn't do enough in the second half -- scoring just seven points on the first drive, having a bad pass get intercepted, and losing a golden opportunity on Wes Welker's key drop. And in the end, those mistakes and missed opportunities, coupled with the inability to take advantage of bad penalties and fumbles by New York, led to the loss.

Aside from cornerback Antwaun Moulden, safety James Ihedigbo, and most of the defensive line, it's tough to pick out Patriots who had bad games. Moulden got beat early and often as the Giants sprinted out to a 9-0 lead. Ihedigbo just isn't the answer at safety; maybe he can bulk up and move to linebacker full-time next year. And defensive linemen Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick couldn't handle one-man blocks and got pushed off the ball all game long. Vince Wilfork followed up his best game as a pro with a mediocre effort where he got no pressure and didn't impact the Giants running game at all.

The Giants were able to run the ball better than anticipated, totaling 114 yards and 4.1 yards a carry. But they won the game through the air, with quarterback Eli Manning 30 of 40 for 296 yards 1 touchdown, no interceptions, and a 103.8 rating.  The Patriots running game was, as usual, best out of the shotgun/spread formation, and they got 4.4 yards a carry but just 83 yards overall. Brady had an average game, 27 of 41 for 276 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 killer interception, and a 91.1 rating.

In many ways, Brady's interception was like the late INT in the Ravens game two weeks earlier. The Patriots were near midfield, late in the game, and all they needed to do was run some time off the clock and score a touchdown or field goal to make the game almost impossible to lose. But again, Brady heaved it toward the end zone, and the pass was picked off on a good defensive play.

This time the play wasn't called in the huddle, it was a broken play. But with all that was on the line, Brady needed to be smarter and either take a short gain or throw the ball away. The Giants didn't score on the ensuing drive; but if the Patriots had run the clock and scored, they are likely world champions this morning.

The next drive was almost as maddening, with two consecutive just-miss passes to Wes Welker and Deion Branch, either of which would have put the Patriots in field goal range with a chance to run the clock down to less than 2:00. The first pass was thrown slightly behind Welker, though he still got two hands on it and should have caught it. And the second one was barely tipped by a Giants defender, which was just a good play by him.

Once the Giants got the ball back, it felt inevitable that the defense couldn't stop them again. New York had drives of 10, 9, 8, 7, 10, 9, and 10 plays to that point -- yet the defense had mostly kept them out of the end zone. However, a 9-play touchdown drive, with one excellent catch and a bunch of easy pitch-and-catch plays sealed the deal.

Again, it was the little things. As Belichick says all the time, the difference between teams at this level is razor thin, so any mistakes are magnified. If the Patriots had won, people would have looked at a potential pass-interference call that wasn't made against Sterling Moore, a holding call that cost the Giants a drive with 4:18 left, or the inability to hold the Patriot at their own 2 yard-line before the half.

But they won, so people will look at Brady's safety or INT, the Welker drop, and the fumbles that were recovered by New York. It's just the price of being in the big games; win and you're a hero, lose and you're a bum. Note: some would also cite the Giants fumble that was called back on a penalty, but given that the infraction was 12-men on the field, there's no way to know the fumble would have occurred without the 12th man or that the Pats wouldn't have recovered it without the extra defender.

As for who starred and sucked in the game, here's a short list. 

Starred 

1. Tight end Aaron Hernandez: 8 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown (and 1 important drop).

2. Receiver Wes Welker: 7 catches for 60 yards and 1 bad drop.

3. Receiver Deion Branch: 3 catches, 3 first downs (converted a third- and a fourth-down).

4. Running back Danny Woodhead: 4 catches and a touchdown, and 2 carries for 21 yards.

5. Linebackers Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo who combined for 22 tackles and 2 forced fumbles (and only blew 3 or 4 plays between them).

6. Safety Patrick Chung: 6 tackles, 1 pass defended, and several hard hits that knocked Giants players out of the game (some temporarily, some permanently).

7. Linebacker Mark Anderson: 5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2 QB hits, and very good pressure inside and out.

8. Punter Zoltan Mesko: pinned the Giants at their 12 on his last punt, and turned around field position with a 48-yarder in the second quarter.
 
9. Linebacker  Rob Ninkovich: not always pretty, but he got good pressure off the edge (0.5 sacks and 2 QB hits).

10. Gerard Warren and Shaun Ellis: stepped in for overmatched young players and were stout against the Giants running attack. 

Sucked 

1. Offensive guard Logan Mankins: missed too many assignments and didn't get much push on running plays.

2. Moulden, Ihedigbo, Deaderick, and Love: for reasons already covered.

3. Whomever the 12th man was on the aforementioned penalty.

The rest of the team was somewhere in between, as was the coaching. Once again, the Patriots came out with a bad offensive game plan and got shut out in the first quarter of the Super Bowl. (Trivia question: name the last Patriots player to score for the team in the first quarter of a Super Bowl; answer below.)

Offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is off to Penn State next year, and we'll be back to Josh McDaniels -- the man who got overmatched in the last Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Only time will tell if McDaniels learned enough in his travels away from the Patriots; but the team still needs to consider hiring the best available coaches, not just the ones Bill Belichick trusts. 

So where does that leave us? Well, the weather looks nice in Boston this week, so there's always that to fall back on:

Or you could follow the Celtics, Stanley Cup champion Bruins, or wait for pitchers and catchers to report (and order some Popeye's fried chicken). I'll be looking at the Patriots biggest areas of need and which players they might target in free agency, trades, and even the draft. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: It might be hard to swallow, but the Patriots are now tied for the most Super Bowl losses by a franchise with four. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Welker should have caught that one."

Keep the faith (if you have any left),

- Scott

PS.
15-4 :(
&
2-1 :(

PPS. Trivia answer:
V
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V
V
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Tight end Ben Coates caught a four-yard touchdown pass from Drew Bledsoe in Super Bowl XXXI (1/26/1997).

3 Factors that Spell a Patriots Win

As game time approaches, I'm more and more confident that the Patriots will win. It goes without saying that in the NFL there are no guarantees, that any strange thing could happen to upset the predicted path. But even though this is a close match up, three things stand out that make me think the game will go New England's way:

Factor #1.  The Giants are a one-dimensional offensive team, and over the years the Patriots have proven very adept at stopping one-dimensional offenses.

Despite what I heard most of the week about New York's bruising running game, they were 32nd (i.e. dead fucking last) in the NFL with just 89.2 yards-per-game and only 3.5 yards-per-carry on the season. (Quite the turn-around from four years ago, when they ranked fourth with 134.2 YPG and third with 4.6 YPC.) They ran for 3.8 yards a rush in the November game against the Patriots, and there's no reason to think they'll do better with a healthy Brandon Spikes for (what we hope will be) the entire game.

The Giants' passing game is excellent; but the Patriots showed the ability to shut it down until the end of the fourth quarter. Prior to their two touchdown drives to end the game (which, by the way, totaled only 110 yards), New York had just one decent drive all day -- their first possession of the second half.

Not sure what Bill Belichick will have up his sleeve for the Super Bowl. But he won't have to worry about the Giants running attack, so it'll be a lot easier to focus on shutting down the pass.

Factor #2.  The Giants need to win the turnover battle, but Tom Brady is stingy in that department the game after a poor performance.

An underplayed fact about the first Pats/Giants game was that New York won the turnover battle 4-2, yet barely squeaked out a win with two touchdown drives at the end. The turnovers were legit, they forced them and could well have had at least one more interception. But if the teams are evenly matched, a 4-2 advantage would usually lead to an easier win, which it did not, indicating that the Giants aren't quite as good as the Patriots when all other things are equal.

But the bigger point is that New York is unlikely to win the turnover battle in the Super Bowl. Against the Ravens, Brady had his 15th career game with a QB rating under 60.0 (excluding the playoff loss to Baltimore in 2009, when they didn't play another game that season).

Here is Brady's average stat line the game after a sub-60.0 performance:

29 of 35, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0.5 INTs, 95.3 rating.

Note that he tosses one interception about every two games. So the Giants might expect to get one pick, but probably shouldn't count on any more largess from TB12.

Given that the Patriots are not a fumbling team, that makes it difficult for the Giants to win the turnover battle unless they are extremely careful with the ball. And without a positive turnover ratio, they are in trouble. They built a +5 turnover margin in three playoff wins. And that includes +2 in the NFC Championship Game, where they needed overtime despite getting two gifts from Kyle Williams.

In contrast, the Patriots have two playoff wins despite a negative turnover margin in both games. So while the turnover margin is important to both teams, the Giants are the ones more dependent on posting a positive number in that column by 10:30 tonight.

Factor #3.  Defensive experimentation during the regular season should pay dividends today.

From a defensive standpoint, the Patriots tried more different things this year than any year since 2004 or 2005. Three-man fronts with single-gap responsibilities, four-man fronts with defensive ends dropping into coverage, the obvious two-way player moves (Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater), inside blitzes by James Ihedigbo and Jerod Mayo, secondary schemes that looked like zone but were really man, Devin McCourty's move to safety, Ihedigbo's move to linebacker, and most shocking of all, many more stunts and games up front than in past years.

After 16 games of experimentation, the Patriots coaching staff knows what works best against pass-first teams, so they should have a good idea of how to slow down the Giants. And if the first thing doesn't work, they have multiple different packages in their defensive arsenal. Manning is certainly playing well, but if he can't recognize the defense pre-snap, then it's advantage Patriots. And it's likely they'll confuse him at least 25% of the time.

One sub-point to this factor. In 2010, the Patriots beat the Colts 31-28. After the game, Patriots defenders said they faked zone coverage pre-snap and played man post-snap about 70% of the time.

However, the plan wasn't to confuse Peyton Manning, which they conceded was almost impossible. The plan was to confuse the wide receivers, and it worked like a charm. The Patriots picked off three Manning throws, the most against him since the 2003 playoffs (a span of nine games).

Given their success with that scheme, and Eli Manning's excellent play of late, it probably makes more sense to try to confuse Jake Ballard (2nd year), Victor Cruz (2nd year), and Hakeem Nicks (3rd year) rather than trying to confuse Manning.

That sub-point notwithstanding, the overall Patriots multiple defensive looks and schemes are an asset they did not possess in Super Bowl XLII, and one they hadn't fully developed in time for the November game.

Summary

So there you have it; the three factors that play to the Patriots favor in what looks like a relatively even matchup. If two of those three come to fruition this evening, then the Patriots should be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy once again. If not... well, the post-game bashing of Belichick should at least be entertaining :)

I hope you enjoyed your week everybody, and if it isn't a Patriots blowout, let's at least hope for a good game.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

15-3!

&

2-0!

Patriots-Giants Super Bowl XLVI Preview

It's finally here!! No, not the Super Bowl -- my pre-game breakdown of the Super Bowl! The game itself is a few days away, but I thought you'd like a little reading material to kill time between now and then. If you've seen enough articles with catchphrases like "revenge game," "can't spell 'elite' without 'Eli'," and "why are the Patriots favored," here is something to break up the monotony.

As is my standard practice in such situations, I will look back at the last games these teams played -- a 24-20 New York Giants victory on November 6, 2011 and a 17-14 Giants win in Super Bowl XLII four years ago. Then I'll consider what has changed and whether or not the Patriots can alter the outcome and get a win against these guys. Checking in on those games gives us a decent chance to determine how the Super Bowl will unfold, and I am including each team's best game plan to win it all.

1. A Giant Reversal

In 2007, the Giants entered Super Bowl XLII with a punishing ground game and basic-but-clutch quarterback play. In the four years since, they abandoned those principles entirely, entering this year's Super Bowl with an excellent passing attack and a terrible running game. Note the monumental change in these stats (with NFL rankings in parenthesis):

2007 Giants rushing:
4.6 yards-per-carry (3rd) and 134.2 yards-per-game (4th)

2011 Giants rushing:
3.5 yards-per-carry (32nd) and 89.2 yards-per-game (32nd)

2007 Giants passing:
6.2 yards-per-pass (27th), 197 yards-per-game (21st), 73.0 rating (24th)

2011 Giants passing:
8.4 yards-per-pass (3rd),  295.5 yards-per-game (5th), 92.9 rating (6th)

Note that their 2011 running game ranked dead last in the entire NFL, a stunning turn-around since 2007. Bruiser back Brandon Jacobs had his worst year as a starter in 2011, averaging just 3.7 yards a carry and only 40.8 yards a game. Speed back Ahmad Bradshaw didn't do much better, 3.9 yard a carry and 51.9 a game.

Not exactly what the Patriots faced four years ago. To borrow a phrase: "Rematch?! Don't talk about rematch! RE-match?!"

2. Patriots Additions and Subtractions

As always, there are injuries and roster changes, with new players preparing, some just hoping to play, and some who know they won't play.

Last November, linebacker Brandon Spikes had five tackles in the first 15:08, but then he got hurt and was done for the next six weeks. With him back in the lineup the past two games, the Patriots shut down two of the strongest running teams in the NFL (Ravens and Broncos). Not that they have to worry about the Giants' 32nd-ranked running game, but Spikes is also better against the pass than the backup linebackers.

Another addition is running back Kevin Faulk, a playoff-tested veteran -- reliable as a pass receiver and pass blocker. Rookie Stevan Ridley fumbled in the Broncos playoff game, and the Patriots left him off the game-day roster against the Ravens. With ball-security vital in the post-season, Ridley might find himself out in the cold again with Faulk taking his place in the Super Bowl.

And even though it might sound like a reach, corner Sterling Moore didn't play in the first game, and he showed himself to be a big-play guy against the Ravens in the AFC title game. Not that he shuts down receivers, but he plays better at corner than Devin McCourty, and Moore's skill allows the Patriots to move McCourty to safety, where he is much better.

On the downside, tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a high-ankle sprain in the last playoff game, and will be limited, although he will most certainly play. He doesn't make a living with lateral movement, but he will be affected, which means the Patriots should have a game plan ready in case he isn't effective. They probably won't risk him as much on running plays either, so look for pass plays early in the game when Gronkowski is on the field.

And the one key player certain not to play is defensive lineman Andre Carter, who is out for the playoffs. He had three QB hits in the first game against New York, but he is on injured reserve and will not play on Sunday.

3. Giants Getting Healthy

The most obvious addition for the Giants is wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, who missed just one game this year -- his team's victory over the Patriots. He is an important part of their offense, averaging 5.7 catches and 93.5 yards per game since returning to the lineup. Their biggest deep threat, Nicks will be a dangerous match up for a Patriots secondary that struggled this year.

The Giants do not have any significant injuries. Bradshaw has been hobbled with a foot fracture, though he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday. And several of their vaunted defensive linemen are nursing small injuries; but you should expect them to play for sure and probably to be pretty effective.

The injury factor clearly goes to the Giants, who are nearly at full strength at just the right time.

4. Giants Game Plan For Victory

The Giants can't run the ball against the Patriots, so they should only do enough to keep the defense honest. But quarterback Eli Manning is playing at an extremely high level, so they should be able to pass. And with a full complement of receivers, he will attack the New England back-seven, a weak secondary and a linebacking corps that struggles against the pass.

On defense, everyone expects New York to get pressure with just the front four. But almost as many people expect the Patriots to use tight ends and running backs to keep Tom Brady upright. So the Giants will have to blitz some of the time -- if only to hurry up Brady's decision-making and keep the blockers guessing.

They have the linebackers to blitz. However, those 'backers are weak in pass coverage, so any blitzes will expose their secondary either short or deep. But it's a risk they have to take if they can't get pressure with the front four.

Most important is that the Giants have to win the turnover battle. They claimed a +2 turnover ratio in the regular season victory, but they only won the game by 4 points (and that on a very late touchdown drive). Every team wants to get more takeaways than their opponent, but that is essentially a requirement for the Giants to claim victory this Sunday.

(Note: game-film analyst Ron Jaworski counted four Manning passes that should have been intercepted in the NFC title game. Manning will have to protect the ball better in this game; if he tosses up that many potential picks, the Patriots have the secondary players to cash in those turnovers.

5. Patriots Game Plan For Victory

They lost in their last Super Bowl appearance because of bad offensive adjustments and coaching (it says so here, so it must be true). Therefore, in this game it is extremely important to take what the defense gives them. Even without Gronkowski, the Patriots have enough offensive weapons that the Giants can't take away everything.

So if New York jams receivers at the line and bull rushes Brady, he has to dump it off or call screens/draws to combat it. If they come out with six defensive backs in a deep cover-2, then audible to running plays. The short- and intermediate-routes in the middle of the field should be available to the Patriots and their multitude of slot/possession receivers, but if the Giants overload that area, Brady has to hit Deion Branch or Aaron Hernandez deep to make the defense back off.

This would be a much more favorable match-up with Gronkowski at full strength. But even if he doesn't play, that still leaves Branch, Hernandez, Wes Welker, and Danny Woodhead to attack the weakest part of the Giants defense -- their linebackers and half of their secondary.

On defense, the Patriots spent the year mixing together all kinds of different alignments, gap responsibilities, secondary groupings, and linebacker blitz schemes. And they probably spent the last month deciding which ones work best against deep-threat receivers, and given that they have the film, they most certainly know better than I do.

But if forced to guess which one they'd go with, I'd say a combination of McCourty and Chung at safety in a two-deep shell, hitting receivers at the line of scrimmage, and controlled bull-rushes up front to push the Giants line back into Manning. If they can't get pressure that way, look for them to use games and tricks up front to confuse New York's offensive line and get free pass rushers.

Manning is bad at escaping free blitzers (as most QBs are) and is very bad throwing off his back foot. And with a two-deep concept, the Giants will have to work their way down the field for points, something they didn't do very well for three-quarters of the game last November.

Quick Hits:

A. In 16 regular season games, the Giants were +7 in turnover margin, and they are +5 in just 3 post-season games.

B. In 16 regular season games, the Patriots were +17 in turnover margin, but they are minus-3 in 2 post-season games.

C. The Giants are 3-1 in the last four games against the Patriots, despite being outscored 82-89 (sort of the opposite of the Patriots-Ravens recent games).

D. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 34-15 the second (or third) time they play a team in the same season. (Trivia question: name the last year they were under .500 under those circumstances, answer below.)

E. Tom Brady had a 57.5 QB rating in the AFC Championship Game. Here are his average stats the week after he has a QB rating under 60.0 (excluding playoff loss to Ravens in January 2009):

29 of 35, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0.5 INTs, 95.3 rating.

Summary

This is the hardest game to pick in quite some time. The Giants changes on offense make them better suited to exploit the Patriots defense. But the Patriots offense is well-designed to attack the weakest parts of the Giants defense, too. If Gronkowski was 100%, it would be easy to pick the Patriots because that would give them three match-up nightmares on the field at the same time (with Welker and Hernandez).

But without Gronkowski, this is a much closer game. It probably comes down to the turnover battle. And as stated before, Brady averages about 0.5 picks the week after he has a down game. So I'm going with the Patriots in a 2- or 4-point victory; but if you're planning to bet on the game, I recommend lottery tickets instead. This one is just too close to call.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.
15-3!
&
2-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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In 2006, the Patriots were 2-3 the second/third times they played teams.

Pats/Giants Super Bowl Breakdown Links

Hey guys,

I haven't finished my pre-Super Bowl update, but here are some links with interesting information and breakdowns of what to expect on Sunday:

SI.com breakdown of specific matchups and schemes (five days worth, you'll have to click back to see Monday-Thursday, but well worth it):
http://nfl.si.com/2012/01/27/break-it-down-super-bowl-matchups-bill-obrien-vs-perry-fewell/?sct=hp_t11_a3&eref=sihp

Cold, Hard Football Facts on Passer Rating Differential:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5271_Kerry%27s_Super_Bowl_Tour_de_Statistical_Force.html
and more on "peaking" and Passer Rating Differential:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5279_Patriots-Giants_Tour_de_Statistical_Force%3A_who%27s_peaking%3F.html

Cold, Hard Football Facts post on the Patriots defense (just about melted my brain, so tread carefully):
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5281_The_Curious_Case_of_the_New_England_defense.html

That should keep you busy until I finish up my analysis.

Enjoy!

- Scott

Patriots Survive and Advance, 23-20

In one of the best football games you'll ever see, the Patriots held on for a 23-20 win over the Ravens. The victory propelled them to Super Bowl XLVI against the New York Giants, who won their way into the big game with a 20-17 overtime thriller. More on that game later in the week; but first, let Nostrodamus (i.e. your humble blogger) walk you through yesterday's Patriots win.

First the self-congratulatory section of the email, a list of "as predicted here last week" moments from yesterday's game (if you don't want to read this, skip down 9 paragraphs):

The three dead-on predictions:

A. Baltimore running back Ray Rice was not effective in the ground game; the Patriots held him to 67 yards on 21 carries (3.2 YPC) and no touchdowns.

B. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was much more dangerous thanthan people thought. In fact, he was the best QB in the game. He went 22 for 36, 306 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 95.4 rating. He also ran for 27 yards on 4 carries, although he did miss some long bombs, mostly courtesy of the Patriots pass rush.

C. Baltimore receiver Lee Evans struggled against the Patriots, again. He had the winning touchdown in his hands and Patriots corner Sterling Moore knocked it away. For the record, here are Evans' numbers in 14 career games against the Pats:

Totals: 36 catches, 436 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 fumble lost

Averages: 2.6 catches, 31.1 yards, 0.07 touchdowns

And the two imperfect-but-close predictions:

D. I projected Patriots receivers Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez would have 18 catches, 238 yards, and 2 touchdowns. They had 18 catches, 206 yards, and no touchdowns. Not perfect, but pretty close.

E. I thought the game would be a 4- to 6-point Patriots win -- it turned out to be a 3-point win.

Thank you for indulging me. Now on to our regularly scheduled update.

The game was a contest of which team would screw up the fewest opportunities. Brady missed a wide open Gronkowski touchdown pass, and Gronkowski failed to get his second foot down (or so it was called on the field) on a first-down catch. The Patriots had to settle for field goals both times. And Brandon Spikes' interception went to waste when Brady threw his second interception on an ill-advised 50 yard bomb.

On the other side, Joe Flacco missed two wide open receivers on long passes, and the Ravens took a field goal on fourth-and-inches (whereas the Patriots went for it on fourth-and-inches and got a touchdown). The Ravens scored just six points off three New England turnovers, and lost despite clear advantages in time of possession, total yards, third-down conversions, and the turnover battle.

However, the biggest Ravens blunder was not calling a timeout before the game-tying field goal attempt. Being at the game, I saw kicker Billy Cundiff running to the kicking spot from 75 yards away. He was practicing kicks at the 20 yard-line on the opposite end of the field. And after all that running, the Ravens had only 10 seconds to measure the kick, get in position, and snap the ball. And the Ravens finished the season with a timeout they could have used -- I don't think they let you carry that over to next season.

The star of the day was probably the Patriots defensive front. They got a great push upfield for 3.5 quarters, forced three three-and-outs (for a total of minus-6 yards) to start the game, and had Flacco on the run all day long. Unfortunately, they let him break containment and run for chunks of yards, but overall it was a great day for them.

Vince Wilfork came up huge in the biggest game of the year. He had six tackles, including three for a loss, one sack, and helped clog up the middle so Rice couldn't get going. In fact, the entire defensive interior was great; Brandon Deaderick, Kyle Love (who you *still* can't pick out of a police lineup), and subs Gerard Warren, and Shaun Ellis.  (Note: Didn't see much out of Ron Brace, but it was good to see him out there finally).

The linebackers cut off outside runs and the short passing game. Brandon Spikes lived up to his billing, nine tackles, one pass defended, and a crucial interception with the Ravens driving for tying or go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. Mark Anderson got key pressures on the quarterback, with two QB hits, a sack for 7 yards, and other hurries that kept Baltimore off-balance. Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo combined for 15 tackles, and even though neither seemed huge in the game, both played their responsibilities well and made the Ravens earn every yard.

Only cornerback Sterling Moore distinguished himself among the secondary players. He saved the game with his strip of Evans, and knocked away another pass and had good coverage that led to at least two other incompletions. Safety play continued to be poor, even when Devin McCourty rotated in. James Ihedigbo got beaten for a long pass on the Ravens first scoring drive, and though he got 8 tackles and a sack, he was nowhere in the passing game. Patrick Chung was got beaten on two long pass attempts, but luckily for him they fell incomplete.

Overall, a strong front-seven made up for weakness in the back four. They won't try to play the Giants the same way; they'd get killed by Eli Manning. But that's a post for another day.

On offense, quarterback Tom Brady was lucky the defense played so well. Please hold your nose when you read this: 22 of 36, 239 yards, no touchdowns, 2 interceptions (one a terrible decision and throw), and a QB rating of 57.5. He missed Gronkowski on the possible touchdown, and was lucky to get back another interception on a penalty. The completion percentage and yards could be forgiven; but that second interception was bad for five reasons.

First, with 7:22 left and a 3-point lead, it was imperative to run some clock before scoring, but he went for a 50-yard bomb instead. Second, there were two receivers open for an easy 5- to 10-yard gain. Third, his intended receiver was Matthew Slater -- he of the one career reception. Fourth, Brady and Slater weren't on the same page, so the throw went right when Slater broke left. And fifth, it was a jump-ball situation at best, and Slater is not the player to trust in that scenario.

However, it was not all bad on offense. Despite Brady's struggles, and a miscue by Slater and Gronkowski, the receivers did a great job getting open against the aggressive Raven's defense. It was tight coverage all over the field, and the windows for completions were small. But Welker and Hernandez got the short throws, and Gronkowski was good for 17.4 yards a catch.

The running game was effective between the tackles, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis gaining 68 yards on 15 carries (4.5 YPC), with 1 touchdown. In fact, Brady might have been better running than passing -- 3 rushes, 1 touchdown. Danny Woodhead did okay on inside hand-offs, but was not as effective as Green-Ellis. However, tight end Aaron Hernandez looks more like a novelty out of the backfield (1 rush for 9 yards, 2 rushes for 0 yards).

And the offensive line did mostly a credible job. Logan Mankins and Brian Waters killed it again, and center Dan Connolly continued his underrated season replacing the injured Dan Koppen (remember him). However, the outside linemen -- Matt Light and Nate Solder -- were beaten for pressures in the game and only did okay. The center of that line is its strength; and they need to make sure they chip outside rushers in the Super Bowl.

Special teams were a mixed bag. Only one of Stephen Gostkowski's kickoffs was returned, and it went for 20 yards (the other five kicks were touchbacks). And he went 3-3 on field goals -- which as the Ravens will tell you is important. But Woodhead had a fumble on one kickoff return, and that could have been devastating as it came just as momentum seemed headed toward Baltimore.

Coaching was very good for the most part. The only play-call I disagreed with was the long pass to Slater that was intercepted. But overall, the plan of using short passes and inside runs was very good. And they have definitely come up with a blueprint to stop Rice -- and they even adjusted well when the Ravens went away from tendencies in the running game.

So where does that leave us? Can't ask for much more than a trip to the Super Bowl. Gronkowski came up injured late in the game, so that will be important to watch. And Brady's shoulder appeared to affect his accuracy, so he'll need the next two weeks to get that healthy. But for the next week, it's all enjoyment and talk -- the serious stuff won't start until next Monday.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In 22 post-season games, Tom Brady has 3 games with a QB rating under 60.0. Yet somehow, he is still 2-1 in those games. (Trivia question: two of those games were against the Ravens, can you name the other team and year? Answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "That wasn't luck, it was two great teams fighting to the finish. Glad we came out on top; but it could have gone either way."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

15-3!

&

2-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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Trivia Answer: Brady had a QB rating of 57.6 in the Divisional Round against the San Diego Chargers on January 14, 2007, and won the game 24-21 (thank you Troy Brown!).