As for Sunday's game, the biggest story was the likely season-ending injury to Wes Welker. His knee buckled without being hit when he tried to cut to the right, and it was obvious by his very emotional reaction afterward that it is not going to be good news. He will clearly be sidelined for this Sunday's game. And according to early reports he might have the same injury Brady had last year, which would keep him out of the playoffs and most of the 2010 season.
Difficult as it is to see this happen, the criticism directed at Bill Belichick is simply unreasonable. Even when teams rest players in advance of the playoffs, the starters always play at least the first quarter, just to keep them sharp. Welker's injury occurred five minutes into the game in a non-contact situation, something that could have happened to any NFL superstar last weekend, because they all played on their team's first series. The Welker injury is a case of disastrous timing and circumstances; nothing more.
However, Belichick should be taken to task for playing Tom Brady in the second half. Brady is nursing multiple injures (reported to be broken ribs and a broken finger on his throwing hand). And BB kept at least three starters (Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, and Kevin Faulk) inactive because they were already injured. So playing Brady was inconsistent with how he treated other players. And there was clearly no call to play him beyond the first quarter. He should have been given no more than a quarter's worth of work on Sunday -- the risk of further injuring his ribs or hand was just too great. And playing him was not logically consistent with how Belichick treated other injured star players.
Julian Edelman will play the part of Welker in the playoffs. He is no Wes, who was the maestro of YAC (yards after the catch), made up for the subpar tight ends and running game, and was terrific at punt returns. But Edelman does have many of the skills necessary to play the slot receiver in the Patriots offense: quickness off the line, sharp moves, ability to weave through traffic, and decent YAC. He doesn't have the rapport with Brady, so there might be a missed communication or two each game. But earlier in the year Edelman was developing into the third best receiver on the roster. So the only positive spin you can put on this is that at least the Patriots have a serviceable receiver to take over for Welker in the playoffs.
As for the game, it was a mishmash. Starters played the first quarter, and then ducked out for the second, only to return in the third and then some of them bowed out for the fourth. All that shifting around made it difficult to see who was playing well.
Brady was only mediocre; mostly due to inconsistent protection. He didn't throw a touchdown, and his lone INT came when he was getting hammered by Mario Williams, and some miscommunications with Edelman caused a few incomplete passes. The team started their best five offensive linemen, but swapped in backups during the game. Starter Stephen Neal got beaten on a few plays, and did not have his best day. However, when they ran the ball, Neal, Logan Mankins, and astounding rookie Sebastian Vollmer were just beasts, and that might be their best strategy in the playoffs.
Among receivers, Randy Moss did a nice job getting some first downs, and Edelman led the team with career highs in receptions and yards (10 for 103) and some nifty moves on a 25 yard scamper. The rest of the receivers were nondescript -- sort of like the rest of the season. It was always Moss and Welker and then some other guys; yesterday is was Moss and Edelman and some other guys.
On defense, the Pats would not have been in the game without Darius Butler's 91-yard interception return for a touchdown. Butler had interceptions in back-to-back blowout wins earlier this year, but this was a nice catch and he jetted up the field untouched for the TD. It was the only score in the third quarter, putting the Patriots up 20-13 even though Houston dominated the quarter. Shawn Springs defended a few passes early (though they didn't show up on the stat sheet), and the safety trio of James Sanders, Brandon McGowan, and Brandon Meriweather made a potent last line of defense.
Unfortunately, those safeties made way too many tackles, as the front seven alternated between acceptable and terrible. The good was Mike Wright and Tully Banta-Cain, who continue to improve their play. If Warren and Wilfork return for the playoffs, Wright might challenge Jarvis Green for the starting spot in the playoffs, making it an all "W" defensive line. And Jerod Mayo and Derrick Burgess are both peaking at the right time -- with Mayo closer and closer to last year's form and Burgess consistently pressuring the QB, which is what he was brought here to do.
The bad was... well just about everyone else. Gary Guyton made some tackles but got pushed around all game long. Ron Brace started for Wilfork again, and he didn't make a single play that showed up in the stat sheet -- not even an assist on a tackle. Junior Seau blitzed himself out of two running plays and whiffed on a tackle in the backfield. Jarvis Green played beyond invisible, and Myron Pryor looks like a rookie; though not as bad as Brace.
In other words, better hope for Warren and Wilfork to return. The Patriots linebackers can't get off a block and make a tackle consistently, so they need Warren and Wilfork to occupy blockers and allow the 'backers to run untouched to the ball. If only Wilfork returns, they could still be okay. If Vince is out on Sunday, it could be a long day against the Ravens, who had the fourth-best rushing attack in the league (4.7 yards a carry).
Stephen Gostkowski had a very good day kicking, knocking two field goals right down the middle (43 and 51 yards), while his counterpart missed an extra point and two field goals. Gostkowski even made a tackle on a kick return. The punt game was nothing special, for about the 15th week in a row. It would be safe to assume the Patriots will upgrade that position in the off-season.
Belichick's only questionable decision was putting Tom Brady back on the field, especially when the game was a lost cause in the fourth quarter. It made no sense to have your most important player drop back and sling it when the Texans were ignoring the run and just crashing the pocket.
So where does that leave us? Hosting a playoff game is better than traveling for one, and all signs point to the return of Ty Warren and Wilfork. But without Welker the Pats will have to morph some into a run-oriented team. Perhaps it would be best if it was windy on Sunday, to neutralize both passing games and make it a contest of wills with the run. In that circumstance, the crowd could make it tough on the Ravens, who are prone to penalties already. Just an early though -- more to come later in the week.
Statistical Oddity of the Week: Think Edelman can't replace Welker? Welker's average stat line for the season (minus the partial Texans game) was 9.5 catches for 103 yards. Edelman's stat line on Sunday was 10 catches for 103 yards.
Statistical trivia question (answer below): Last week I suggested the Patriots could capture the lead league in three areas: time of possession, total plays from scrimmage, and fewest points given up. Did they end up leading the NFL in any of those categories? and if so, which one(s)?
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "With Welker, the Pats were the team no one wanted to face. Probably *everyone* wants to face them now."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 10-6!
PPS. Trivia answer
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The Patriots led the NFL in time of possession this year, averaging 33:05 per game.
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