Patriots 23, Ravens 20 (10/17/2010)

A great game yesterday between two of the top franchises of the past decade, with the Patriots coming out on top of a 23-20 overtime thriller.  The win puts the Pats at 4-1, tied for the second best record in the entire NFL and a half-game behind the Jets for the AFC East lead.  And on deck is a trip to the west coast to take on a reeling San Diego team.

There is a theory among some that you do whatever you can to avoid playing your way out of the playoffs in the first half of the season.  Dig an 0-6 hole, the theory goes, and you'll never climb out, but go 2-4 and you can still make a playoff run.  Well, the Patriots applied that thinking to the game yesterday, surviving first half domination to trail only 10-7, giving themselves a chance to make a run in the last 30 minutes.  Or make that 43 minutes, including a wee bit of overtime to decide the issue.

I don't have time for an in-depth breakdown of the game; so here are a half-dozen observations.

1.  The Patriots showed a more diverse offense with Randy Moss out of the picture.  Deion Branch caught 9 for 98 yards, including a crucial touchdown and two important grabs in overtime.  When the inside running of BenJarvus Green-Ellis stalled, they ran Danny Woodhead to the outside with success, and they called several misdirection plays, always good against an aggressive defense.  They went no-huddle for a while and got good blocking from the tight ends.

Bill O'Brien's play-calling displayed real imagination.  A particular favorite was the fake screen and pass up the seam to tight end Aaron Hernandez out of the bunch formation.  Not only did it gain good yardage, but it gives upcoming opponents something to think about before they jump the screen from that formation -- and it's *always* good when a defense thinks instead of reacts.

2.  They miss Kevin Faulk; but Woodhead and Hernandez pick up enough slack to make the loss tolerable.  Woodhead is small and plays with his pads low, making him very difficult to stop on initial contact.  He's quick around end and his improvement in the passing game was obvious yesterday (5 catches for 52 yards).

Hernandez has played four positions: wide receiver, slot receiver, tight end, and sometimes halfback, and they got him the ball from each of those spots.  The opposition doesn't seem to know quite how to handle Hernandez; he beats linebackers and slowish safeties, but teams don't want to commit a corner or even a nickelback to the tight end.  Quite the conundrum; should be fun to watch Hernandez punish teams for the rest of the season.

3.  The O-line deserves praise for giving Brady all day on some plays (including the touchdown to Branch) and for excellent scheme and execution in the outside running game.  But a closer look reveals three sacks and several free blitzers that busted up plays and led to Brady's only "real" interception.  The inside run was non-existent, too.

Overall a below-average performance.  Communication problems that lead to free blitzers are to be expected in road games when you can't hear... they should not happen at home.

4.  The Patriots defense can't stop both the run and pass out of their base set, but the substitute packages are doing better.  Replace Mike Wright with Ron Brace to beef up the line and it's tough to run against the Pats.  Replace Wilfork with a linebacker and Brandon Spikes with Gary Guyton and it's tough to pass.

The problems come when they don't guess right.  They can still stop the run okay with the pass-stopping package, but when their run stoppers are in the game they can't stop the pass at all.  Brandon Spikes is getting better and better at anticipating run or pass, and Jermaine Cunningham disrupts more plays each week.  But their base defense just can't defend both aspects of the game.

Baltimore doesn't have a balanced enough attack to really attack this defensive weakness, but several of their up-coming opponents do.  Pittsburgh, Indy, the Jets, and Green Bay all have the firepower to make the Pats pay when they are in the wrong substitution package.  Heck, San Diego might.


5.  Can we finally put to rest the idiocy of "the Ravens and Ray Rice ran all over the Patriots" in the playoffs last year?  Rice started that game with an 83-yard touchdown.  Since then, here are his numbers over two games:

49 carries for 164 (3.3 average, long run of 16 yards)

So please spare me how the Ravens out-toughed the Patriots and imposed their will on them last January.  It was more a poor performance by Tom Brady that cost the Patriots so dearly in that game.  The fact is the Ravens have been ineffective running the ball against the Patriots for over two full games now (including overtime yesterday) -- so the media can stop harping on the Pats for something that just isn't true.

6.  Stephen Gostkowski channeled Adam Vinatieri yesterday.  On a windy day he went 3-3 on field goals, dead-eying one to tie the game late and one to win it in overtime.  He also stuck 5 of 6 kickoffs into the end zone.  If you think that's no biggie, remember that his opposite number booted one out of bounds and the Patriots cashed in the advantageous field position for their only second-half touchdown.

Note: punter Zoltan Mesko changed field position three times in the game, with a 54-yard boot and a pooch punt when the Patriots were holding on by a thread in the first half.  And his most important punt this year was the 65-yard bomb in the fourth quarter, just when it appeared the Ravens were going to get good field position.

So where does that leave us?  There are only 3 teams in the NFL with just a single loss, so 4-1 is pretty good.  San Diego might be desperate for a win next Sunday, and they have often beaten the Patriots in the regular season.  But without some of their weapons from yesteryear, the Chargers might have more trouble this time than in the past.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Seattle Seahawks are the only team in the NFC West that has scored more points than they have allowed this season.  And they are only +1 on the year.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Expect the Ravens to see a steady dose of outside runs and misdirection plays.  The Pats killed them with that stuff."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  4-1!

Patriots Get Even Thinner with Moss Departure

You have no doubt read or heard that the Patriots traded Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings, a home-coming for Moss, who started his NFL career there.  The Pats reportedly received the Vikings 2011 third-round pick, and the Vikings received a deep-ball threat they desperately need before their 2010 season crashes and burns.

Moss' departure is a double-edged sword for the Patriots.  The pessimists say they lost their only deep threat, a receiver with 50+ touchdowns in three years and who commanded double coverage by all but the most talented defenses.  The optimists say that Brady threw to Moss much too often and will point to his pouting on the sidelines and post-game rant after the opening day win as distractions the team can live without.

As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  I have criticized Brady for chucking passes to Moss even when he was covered, hoping Randy could come down with the ball or at least knock it down.  That worked in 2007; but in 2009 it twice led to bad interceptions in games the Patriots lost (Indy and Miami).  But I have also praised Moss for playing hurt and accepting the decoy role as other Patriots receivers benefited from his presence.  No chance the Patriots go 11-5 with QB Matt Cassel in 2008.

But when I read the news, I thought the new Patriots were aptly described in the title of a Stephen King novel.  "Thinner" was published by King under a pseudonym in 1984, and in it, the main character is cursed with becoming continually thinner.  It continues until he is barely able to walk and awaits his fate of inevitable heart failure while a close friend frantically tries to find a way to save him.

And that describes perfectly this Patriots team.  They once sported depth at most positions that was the envy of the league.  Richard Seymour goes down, plug in Jarvis Green and keep going.  Ty Law gets injured, put in rookie Randall Gayand the victories continue to pile up.  Lawyer Milloy leaves for more money and Eugene Wilson steps in and they win the Super Bowl.

But the 2010 version is dangerously thin at several key positions.  With the departure of Moss, they are one injury away from double coverage on both Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez. One linebacker injury, and Gary Guyton starts the next game... and the opposing team salivates.  A suspension in the defensive backfield and Ty Law *might* be walking through that door; and he *will* be old and gray.  Another of their thirtysomething running backs goes down and I expect a call from Belichick, asking if I can learn the playbook by next week.

They is also a huge gulf between the starting and backup quarterback, and the defensive line is already "by committee" -- so an injury there would put Ron Brace into that rotation... not good, people.

From a top-to-bottom talent level, the Patriots were stout and hearty in 2004.  But since then, they looked a little lanky in 2005, and pale and peaked in 2006.  They got a top-line talent infusion in 2007, but the aging defense got rickety in 2008, and the gulf between starters and backups was positively cavernous in 2009.

It might not come back to bite them, but trading Randy Moss left them shakily thin at yet another position.  My most recent "Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom" was "Brandon Tate... worth the wait."  That better be true; because if he and Hernandez can't stretch the field, it'll be a lot tougher for Wes Welker to get eight catches a game, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to average 4.6 yards a carry.

Here's hoping the Patriots can avoid key injuries or suspensions.  Otherwise, the season might end as horribly as "Thinner" did -- and trust me folks, it was not a pretty ending to that story.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

Patriots 41, Dolphins 14 (10/4/2010)

Belichick calls it "the kicking game," but on Monday night they were truly "special teams."  The Pats survived a tough first half and blew the doors off the joint after the break, putting up a 41-14 victory in Miami.  The win ties the Patriots with the Jets for first place in the AFC East (both teams at 3-1), and the bye week gives them some extra time to bask in the glow of a well-deserved victory.

It was the kind of special teams destruction usually reserved for college and high school games, and frankly something akin to what we saw around these parts in the Patriots 2001 Super Bowl run.  The Dolphins have had their special teams problems this year -- getting a punt blocked against the Jets, and apparently twice in the pre-season.  But they completely melted down against the Pats, and Miami already fired the special teams coach as a result.

The special teams dominance actually started with some less remarkable and often unnoticed plays in the first half.  Zoltan Mesko booted a 60-yard punt to change field position in the first quarter, and he pulled down two errant snaps on Stephen Gostkowski's field goals.  And not only did Gostkowski put those two through the uprights, he nailed his kickoffs, sending five of the seven into (or through) the end zone for touchbacks.  And Miami is not built to drive a long field, so winning the field position battle was important to staying in the game in the first half.

The Patriots started the second half with a big special teams play that was a harbinger of things to come.  Brandon Tate looped around a perfect block by Sammy Morris and outran an out-of-position Bobby Carpenter around the edge before scooting up the sideline for a touchdown --  his second touchdown on a kickoff return this year.  Interestingly, both have come on the opening kickoff of the second half.

Patrick Chung kept the special teams train rolling, with a blocked punt to end the next Dolphins drive.  Two Miami blockers (one of which was Bobby Carpenter again) whiffed on the play, allowing Chung an inside lane, which is a big no-no on special teams.  An inside move is the quickest way to the kicker, so special teamers are taught never to let anyone them to the inside.  Two plays later, BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran the ball in for a touchdown on a great draw-play call.

After the teams traded touchdowns, Chung struck again, blocking a field goal attempt.  This time special teams scored it by themselves; backup defensive back Jarrad Page knocked the bouncing ball forward and Kyle Arrington scored his first NFL touchdown on a 35-yard return.  And that effectively put the game out of reach.

Chung wasn't done either.  On the defensive side, he picked off a Chad Henne pass and returned it for a touchdown in the fourth quarter.  And that put him in good company, the Patriots picked off four passes on the night.  Rob Ninkovich snagged the first two INTs of his career, both times reading the play perfectly and undercutting the route for the pick.  Good thing he did, too -- those plays were both in the first half, when the outcome was still in doubt.

The Pats defense tried some unconventional fronts, putting Mike Wright and Myron Pryor on the nose and shifting Vince Wilfork to the left, only to watch the Dolphins run the other way.  The plan produced uneven pressure at best, a few sacks and some hurries.  But most of Henne's bad performance should be chalked up to poor reads and bad choices.  He had a lot of time, but for this week at least, the Patriots bend-but-don't-break defense proved the perfect choice to defeat an overmatched quarterback. 

On offense, the Pats tried passing from an empty backfield, and the plan seemed sure to get Brady injured.  So they ran the ball more, using up clock and getting some rest for their defense.  Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead combined for 112 yards on 24 carries, and a touchdown each.  Pretty respectable for two undrafted free agents.  (Trivia question: name another undrafted free agent who led the Patriots in a significant category in this game.  Answer below.)  Green-Ellis runs with power and gets every yard the play can get, and Woodhead is a smallish guy who is tough to find when he runs inside, and he's been very exciting (and excitable) since coming to the team two weeks ago.

With the running game in gear, and facing multiple short fields after turnovers, Tom Brady finished with pedestrian numbers: 19 of 24 for 153 yards and a touchdown.  Not going to light the world on fire with those numbers, but frankly he didn't have many yards to gain for most of the game.  The O-line did a good job protecting him once they returned to a staple of their offense: short, ball-control passing.  Wes Welker got involved, and ended up with 8 grabs for 70 yards.  And tight end Aaron Hernandez continues to be a focal point, catching 5 passes before Miami adjusted their scheme to the rookie.

The coaching staff deserves special mention.  Special teams coach Scott O'Brien exploited the Dolphins scheme brilliantly.  It was the Patriots best special teams performance since the playoff win over Pittsburgh in 2002 (two touchdowns, one on a punt return and one on a blocked field goal return).

And the defensive staff did their homework, putting players in position for three INTs and stopping Miami short on a late fourth down.  Belichick took three defensive timeouts in the second half, twice stopping the drive cold within two plays.  A masterful job on special teams, and for a change, much improved halftime adjustments.

And on offense, they changed their plans when Miami made it clear they would not be beaten on long passes by Brady.  The Patriots ran more and used short passes to keep the chains and the clock moving.  All around, a great job by the coaching staff, against a team that came pretty close to sweeping them in 2009.

So where does that leave us?  3-1 is a lot better than 2-2, especially going into a bye week with a difficult schedule to follow.  The win puts them in a first place tie in the AFC East, and gives them a 2-1 division record so far.  Here's hoping Fred Taylor can get healthy over the bye week, because they will need more than three healthy running backs for the balance of the season.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: By now you've probably heard that the Patriots are the first team to score touchdowns passing, rushing, on an interception return, a kickoff return, and a return of a blocked field goal in the same game.  Interestingly, what no team had ever done in NFL history, the Patriots did in one half of football -- scoring all those touchdowns after halftime on Monday.  Hope you didn't fall asleep :)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Brandon Tate... worth the wait."

Keep the faith (and enjoy the week off),

- Scott

PS.  3-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:

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Undrafted Wes Welker led the team in receptions (8) and yards (70).  Give yourself a half-point if you guessed Rob Ninkovich (who led with 2 interceptions) -- but he was drafted by New Orleans in 2006 (fifth round).

When will the Patriots cook up some defense?

On the lighter side of things, Tavolino Restaurant at Patriots Place is in a Bon Appetite list of the best chocolate chip cookies in the America.  And given that there were only 7 spots on the list, it wasn't exactly an easy thing to do.

For what it's worth, I got tickets to the Club Seats at Gillette Stadium a few years back and had one of the best pieces of chocolate cake I'd ever tasted.  So there might actually be something to the foodie-ness over there in Foxboro.

My question is, when will the Patriots use their fine culinary skills to cook up some defense?  They currently rank 28th in the NFL in scoring defense, 27th in yards given up, and 28th in opponent passer rating.  And last week made a pathetic Buffalo Bills offense look absolutely stellar -- allowing 23 points to a team that had 17 total in their previous two games.

Maybe they should talk to the chef at Tavolino, or the cake vendor in the Club Seats.  They might get some decent tips on how to whip up a good defense for next Monday in Miami.  But if they don't do something soon, their goose may be cooked (sorry, I couldn't help myself).

Enjoy!

- Scott

Patriots 38, Bills 30 (9/26/2010)

The Patriots held on for a 38-30 win over their long-time whipping boy, the Buffalo Bills.  The game looked a lot more like people thought their games would this year -- the Pats offense put up a big number and the defense struggled but was good enough to hold on for the victory.  The win puts the Patriots at 2-1, in a three-way tie for first place in the division.


The offensive line was the biggest star of the day, dominating the line of scrimmage to the tune of a 142.6 QB rating and 200 rushing yards.  Rarely will you see a Patriots game with such offensive balance.  Matt Light, Dan Connolly, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, and Sebastian Vollmer won just about every battle, did a great job in pass protection, and combined with tight ends Alge Crumpler and Rob Gronkowski to open big holes and get down field to attack the second level of the defense in the running game.  There were a lot of great offensive performances, but it all started up front.


Tom Brady played much better this week.  He had the luxury of fantastic protection and a good running attack, and he literally made only one bad decision -- the long incompletion in the direction of Matthew Slater on second-and-9.  Other than that he sparkled, 21 of 25 for 252 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, and the aforementioned 142.6 QB rating.  He even ran for a first down, and he spread the ball around to seven receivers.


Speaking of receivers, short passes to rising star Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, and Rob Gronkowski, kept the chains moving, and two deep bombs to Randy Moss went for touchdowns.  Gronkowski added a TD of his own, on a perfect quick-out, and his role near the goal line is likely to grow in the coming weeks.  And even though he didn't catch any passes, Alge Crumpler should get special mention for his blocking in the running game and in pass protection.  Brandon Tate fumbled for the Patriots only turnover of the day, and frankly his 29-yard grab before the half didn't really make up for it, since the Bills converted the fumble into a touchdown.


The running game did not suffer with the loss of Kevin Faulk, at least for a week.  With Fred Taylor nursing a toe injury, the Pats featured BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and he acquitted himself nicely -- 98 yards, a 6.1 per carry average, and a weaving 22-yard touchdown.  Faulk's replacement on the roster, Danny Woodhead threw in his own 22-yard TD, and averaged an impressive 14 yards on 3 carries.


Overall, the defense did not perform very well.  Not a lot of pressure on the quarterback, the Bills gashed them for 134 yards on the ground, and they were a poor pass away from giving up the lead.  It wasn't all their fault; the Bills scored on several short drives and got a touchdown on special teams.  But the defense obviously has a long way to go when the worst offense in the NFL put up 23 points.


It can be difficult to quantify defensive line play in this system, but when it moves backwards on running plays, you know it's getting beaten.  Couple that with just one sack (and the fact that most of their pressure came when the Bills O-line blew an assignment) and not a lot of stops up front, and the D-line didn't really do the job.  Ron Brace was the one bright spot; not that he had a great game, but that he was "okay" instead of his usual "really bad."  But he is improving, so that's something.


Among the linebackers, Jerod Mayo and Tully Banta-Cain were their usual solid selves.  Jermaine Cunningham continues to improve, so there is potential there, too.  But Brandon Spikes is still about a step behind most plays, and Rob Ninkovich and Gary Guyton give up a big play for every play they make -- generally not a good trade.  This group needs to make plays against either the run or the pass, otherwise teams can choose how to move the ball and the rest of the defense isn't good enough to stop balanced attacks.


The secondary did have two interceptions, Patrick Chung and Brandon Meriweather.  But Chung's came on an overthrow Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick -- and on that play, the receiver was open at the 2 yardline for either a first-and-goal or a touchdown.  So in reality, the defense was a few feet away from letting the Bills tie the game, and if not for a missed throw, the outcome could have been a lot different.  On the bright side, Devin McCourty plays solid corner, Chung lead the team in individual tackles, and Meriweather and Kyle Arrington laid the lumber on a few guys.  But one last bad thing; James Sanders is playing worse now than at any point in his career -- making just about zero positive impact on the defense, and sometimes looking like a lost rookie rather than the six-year veteran he is.  Maybe he was only good when Rodney Harrison played next to him.


Special teams are just weird.  Stephen Gostkowski nailed a 43-yard field goal, but he got in the way on a 95-yard Bills kickoff return touchdown, shielding his own player away from the tackle.  And punter Zoltan Mesko's inconsistency is troubling.  Early in the 2nd quarter, the Patriots needed a good kick to get out of their own end, and he shanked a 33-yarder.  And with three minutes left in the game, they needed a good punt to pin the Bills back, and his kick went just 36 yards and was returned for 6.  Neither kick lost the game... but like I said, troubling.


The biggest coaching improvement was the offensive play-calling from Bill O'Brien.  He mixed the run and pass very well, got the ball to Aaron Hernandez on an end-around, and did a good job integrating Woodhead quickly.


So where does that leave us?  The win bring the Patriots into a first-place tie with the Dolphins and Jets, putting even more importance on next week's showdown with Miami.  That game will be interesting, since the heat won't be as big a factor as usual (because it's a night game), and longtime Tom Brady nemesis Jason Taylor isn't on Miami any more.  Enjoy the game, though -- the next week is the Patriots bye :(


Statistical Oddity of the Week: With the victory, the Patriots have sole possession of the longest winning streak over another team, having won 14 in a row since Lawyer Milloy declared: "I got some numbers *now* -- don't I, Mr. Kraft?!"  (Trivia question: how many playoff games has Milloy won since leaving the Patriots -- answer below).


Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Eking out a win against Buffalo isn't exactly a stepping stone on the way to a division championship.  But I guess we'll take it."


Keep the faith,


- Scott


PS.  2-1!


PPS.  Trivia answer:
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Semi-trick question -- Milloy has not won a playoff game since leaving New England.  His only playoff appearance since 2003 came with Atlanta in 2008, and the Falcons lost 30-24 to Arizona.

Short-sighted Patriots have no viable replacement for Faulk

It is official: Kevin Faulk is out for the season with an ACL injury (story).  Faulk was underappreciated by most; he knew pass protection as well as the offensive line and rarely screwed up a blocking assignment, missed only three games in the last four years, and was underrated as a running threat out of the spread formation.

Anyone who doubts Faulk's value should remember that his absence led to Tom Brady missing almost an entire season.  Faulk was suspended for the first game of the 2008 season, and Sammy Morris got only a partial block on blitzing safety Bernard Pollard.  When Pollard dove for the QB, he collapsed his knee, ending Brady's 2008 before it really began.

For the last ten years, the team counted on Faulk to squeeze out the extra yard for a first down, pick up a blind-side blitzer, and even return punts -- not something a lot of veterans do.  He will be missed on a team struggling on offense.

That the team has no realistic replacement for Faulk is a problem -- and a self-inflicted one.  Longtime Patriots back Laurence Maroney would have been a good choice to replace Faulk.  In fact, just two weeks ago I wrote this about Maroney's future with the team:

Laurence Maroney will have a job here for years to come. Maroney is very good in blitz pickup, has good hands, and can gain decent yardage on outlet passes because he's better in space than between the tackles. He will replace Kevin Faulk when Faulk retires because they are both ideal third-down backs -- but in the meantime, he'll have a job here as long as he's healthy enough.

I had no idea the Patriots would trade Maroney (story), and given the age of their running backs they should have considered this more carefully before pulling the trigger.  Moving up two rounds in the 2011 draft might have seemed like a big deal at the time, but with three 30+ running backs (two of whom are injury prone) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis left on the roster, Maroney would have been a nice insurance policy against injury.

As it is, Fred Taylor (who missed almost all of last season) starts, Sammy Morris (who missed 17 games in his 3 years here) is the likely successor to Faulk on third downs, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the closest they have to a short-yardage back -- but frankly not much more.  Some have suggested that Julian Edelman might play more running back, but he's too small to take on blitzing linebackers on third downs, though he could probably handle safeties and cornerbacks.

Let's just say I'm glad I don't have to fix this problem.  Although if I'd been in charge, I would not have traded Maroney, so my solution would be waiting on the bench.  Most Patriots fans would disagree, but it is time to consider trading with Denver to bring Maroney back.  If pride does indeed goeth before a fall, the Pats should admit the mistake and bring Maroney back before something disasterous happens.

- Scott

Patriots 14, Jets 28 (9/19/2010)

The key word in yesterday's loss was "unanswered."  The Jets scored 21 unanswered points to notch a convincing 28-14 win because their offensive and defensive adjustments went unanswered by the Patriots coaching staff and because the physical play and improved execution of the Jets players went unanswered by the Patriots players.

The loss left the Pats with a lot of unanswered questions.  Will Tom Brady stop risking interceptions by throwing to a well-covered Randy Moss?  Will the Patriots older running backs survive the season?  Will the young defense mature in time to get the team to the playoffs?  Will the coaches ever figure out how to make in-game adjustments as well as their opponents?  Will they every stop using the spread formation as their base offense?  Will the Patriots spend the rest of Tom Brady's career with coordinators-in-training instead of qualified coaches?

The only numbers that mattered yesterday were 0 and 3, the number of turnovers committed by the Jets and Patriots, respectively.  Twice the Jets intercepted Brady when he threw jump balls to a blanketed Randy Moss, and once Moss batted a ball down that could have been INT #3.  Last December I wrote: "Brady to Moss is the most dangerous combination in the NFL -- dangerous to the Patriots chances of winning, that is. It has become Brady's lazy play." 

Unfortunately, Brady hasn't re-learned the lesson of his early career -- that he should throw the ball away and move on to the next play instead of flirting with disaster.  And as long as he tempts fate, the Patriots will be a winning team with no real chance to make noise in the playoffs.  It's as simple as that; here are the numbers from yesterday; and you can see the turnovers were just about the entire story.

First downs: Jets 23, Pats 20
Third-down conversions: Jets 46%, Pats 45%
Total yards: Jets 336, Pats 291
Average yards per play: Jets 5.2, Pats 5.1
Penalty yards against: Jets 58, Pats 79
Time of possession: Jets 32:32, Pats 27:28

The only other statistical discrepancy that contributed to the loss was red zone percentage (Jets 75%, Pats 33%), where Stephen Gostkowski missed yet another makable field goal (might be time to try Brian Hoyer at holder), and Brady was strip-sacked as the Pats tried a late comeback.

Lets do a quick list of people who got better or worse and then do the usual stuff and we'll call it an update.

The only offensive player who got better this week was Aaron Hernandez who caught 6 passes for 101 yards, unless you include "getting on the field" as improvement, in which case Julian Edelman played this week after missing the first game.  On defense, rookie Jermaine Cunningham played okay and Gerard Warren continued his improvement, Bradon Spikes actually played better, and when Tully Banta-Cain wasn't taking stupid penalties he was okay.

As for who was worse, I'll limit it to who was much worse.  Tom Brady can't lose his concentration like he did this week.  His second INT was terrible, especially since it came on 2nd down from their own 38 and the game still in the balance (it was 21-14 at the time).  Brandon Tate committed a rookie penalty that called back a 38-yard run in the first quarter, and that really hurt given that they had just 52 yards rushing on the day.  The lack of a Patriots running attack was probably more due to a better Jets defense than O-line or running back problems, so they get a pass this week, although Sebastian Vollmer and Matt Light both blew several blocks during the game.

Worse on defense: Rob Ninkovich (whiffed on LaDainian Tomlinson's only long run), Jerod Mayo (much less impact than week 1), Kyle Arrington (if you can't play, at least don't commit penalties), Darius Butler (two pass interference calls and gave up two of the Jets longest plays of the day).  The defense actually got decent pressure in some situations, but lost their discipline when facing certain formations, and at least twice did not wrap up ball-carriers when they should have stopped them short of first downs.

Also much worse were the offensive and defensive coaches.  Why do other teams continually play better than the Patriots in the second half?  Rhetorical question, actually -- it's the offensive and defensive adjustments, or more to the point, the poor job making those adjustments by the Patriots coaching staff.  Think it isn't that bad; read the following statistic:

The Patriots have outscored their opponents in the second half of just 6 of their last 18 games (since the start of the 2009 season) -- 6 of 19 if you include the playoff loss.  That is just a 33% success rate, for those counting at home -- one-third!!.  (Trivia question: Of the six teams the Patriots managed to outscore, only one finished 2009 with a winning record -- name the team [answer below].)

That is not an aberration, that is most definitely a pattern.  And a destructive pattern at that.  It is born from years of refusing to hire the most qualified coaches instead of promoting ill-prepared men from within the organization.  It comes from Bill Belichick taking on too much responsibility in the face of mounting evidence that he needs to delegate and manage his staff better.  And frankly it comes after the league has had over a decade to decipher and game-plan against the offensive and defensive schemes that were innovative in 2001 but at this point might be stale.

So where does that leave us?  Scrambling for answers after a 1-1 start ties the Jets for second in the division behind 2-0 Miami.  Fortunately, the poor relation of the division is coming to town next Sunday; the Patriots favorite opponent, the Buffalo Bills. The Pats have beaten the Bills 13 consecutive times, and there is little evidence that they won't make it 14.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Aaron Hernandez' 101 yards receiving is the first time a Patriots rookie tight end has broken the century mark since... wait for it... Russ Francis in 1975.  That is a loooooong dry spell.  (Note: I would have made that the trivia question, but who would have guess that far back?)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I think Brady played pretty well... for someone sleep-walking" (insert wry smile here). 

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  1-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
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Atlanta Falcons (9-7).