Monday, September 18, 2017

Patriots Defense Restores Order In 36-20 Rout Of Saints

The Patriots righted the ship with a 36-20 victory over the Saints yesterday in New Orleans. The win put them in a tie with Buffalo for second place in the AFC East, trailing the 1-0 Dolphins by a half-game. Next week the Houston Texans come to town, to face the depleted Pats.

The defense improved as the game wore on, giving up just seven points and only one big play after the break. This is more characteristic of the defense under coordinator Matt Patricia, so it appears the missed assignments and big plays of the Kansas City loss might have been an aberration.

It also came with their best linebacker (Dont'a Hightower) out with an injury and their best defensive lineman from last year (Alan Branch) not starting due to a poor performance against KC. The ultimate "next man up" team got its biggest defensive line contribution from a rookie, Deatrich Wise (2 tackles, 1 sack, and 5 quarterback hits).

In the secondary it wasn't big-money Stephon Gilmore or touted vet Malcolm Butler who impressed, but second-year Jonathan Jones, who made two tackles and knocked away two passes, both along the sideline. Safety Patrick Chung played very well, making eight tackles, knocking down one pass, and providing excellent coverage on the Saints' tight ends and running backs in the short zones.

The offense just nailed it in the first quarter: three touchdowns on three drives, with a good mix of running and passing plays, and nice tempo-changing plays thrown in for good measure. Tom Brady still wasn't great, despite having very good numbers. For the second straight game, he laid out too many potential interceptions, including one actual INT where he got bailed out on a penalty call. (The defensive holding call, not the 12-men call.)

The receivers they had looked great. Chris Hogan (5 catches, 78 yards, 1 touchdown) ran both deep and underneath passes, taking on part of the Julian Edelman traditional role. Brandon Cooks looked good in his New Orleans return, and tight end Rob Gronkowski was otherworldly for three quarters (6 for 116 yards, and a 53-yard touchdown catch-and-run). Unfortunately he got injured late in the game; although it's a groin injury, not his back or a broken bone. Might have dodged a bullet on that one.

The downside is the sheer lack of receivers. Both Hogan and Gronkowski were gimpy by game's end, so without Edelman and with Amendola in the concussion protocol, they are left with just Cooks and newcomer Phillip Dorsett (late of the Colts). It'll be tough to patch the offense together this week if Amendola doesn't return.

If the receiving corps is short-handed next week, expect some running backs to take a few snaps each to cover for the missing receivers. After all, they did it this week. James White led the team with eight receptions (85 yards), and Rex Burkhead (3 for 41), Dion Lewis (1 for 11), and James Develin (1 for 16) all lined up at receiver for a few plays.

The backs also did a nice job running the ball. Led by Mike Gillislee (18 carries for 69 yards), they ran for 119 yards and a 3.8 yards per carry average. The O-line also impressed in pass protection, giving up just five QB hits and two sacks. Brady made some of the biggest plays when he had lots of time in the pocket, which happened frequently.

The kicking game is still a work-in-progress. Against KC, they had two penalties for running into the punter, in a row -- first time I've ever witnessed that. Yesterday Stephen Gostkowski missed another extra point, and they had him place his kickoffs short to force a return -- but the Saints broke one anyway and the Pats committed a 15-yard penalty on another one.

The punting is impeccable as always. But somehow they have to solidify both the extra points and the kick coverage teams. Mistakes like that have to be corrected by late in the year if the team expects to make the playoffs, or make any noise in the playoffs.

So where does that leave us? Head coach Bill Belichick has said in the past the second game of the year is the most important regular season game. Because if you win the first game, you want to continue the momentum. But if you lose the first one, you need to turn it around fast!

The Pats did that emphatically against the Saints. Next up is Houston, which will be a much tougher test if Amendola and/or Gronkowski can't go.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: I'm going with Chung, who was instrumental in sealing the short zones on defense. New Orleans was 4 of 12 (33%) on third-down conversions; first time in a while they've been that poor.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: This is the fourth season in a row the Saints started the season 0-2. (Trivia question: One other NFL team has also started the last four seasons 0-2, name it... Answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It was only the Saints."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-1!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The Indianapolis Colts have also started each of the last four seasons 0-2. I guess "Suck For Luck" has lingered longer than they thought it would.

Monday, February 6, 2017

Patriots Complete Astonishing Comeback To Win Super Bowl 51

The Patriots actually shocked the world last night, stunning everyone with a 25-point comeback to force overtime, where they won Super Bowl LI 34-28. It was the greatest comeback in NFL playoff history; no team had ever overcome a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit in the postseason. The victory gives the Patriots five world championships under the leadership of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady -- now the undisputed greatest of all time in their respective fields.

(Trivia question: the 25-point deficit was the largest comeback win of Brady's career. Can you name the team, quarterback, and number of points that was his largest comeback before yesterday? Answer below.)

The first three quarters were forgettable for Pats fans. Atlanta led 28-3 with 18 minutes left, in the game and a lot of that was aided-and-abetted by bad Patriots plays. In the first half, it was LeGarrette Blount's first fumble in 16 games, Tom Brady's first playoff pick-six, piss-poor run defense, and bad play-calling in the red zone. In the third quarter, it was dropped passes, blown coverages, and two special teams mistakes by Stephen Gostkowski (more on those later).

Not to take anything away from Atlanta. Their offensive execution was masterful, as coordinator Kyle Shannahan's plan slowly picked apart the Pats D. They got chunk plays running and passing, and some absolutely sick catches by Julio Jones. They executed well and showed great poise for the first three quarters.

But everything changed in the fourth quarter. After a third-quarter touchdown, the Pats entered the final 15 minutes down by 19. And all they did was score on every drive, blank the Falcons, convert two two-point tries, and double-up time of possession as they methodically worked closer and closer until they tied the game. And in overtime, they won the coin toss and scored yet another touchdown to claim the win

In that fourth quarter, Brady cemented his status as the greatest quarterback to play the game. In the final 19 minutes (including overtime), he went 22 of 29 (77.2%) for 248 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, a QB rating of 112.4, and four straight scoring drives.

Running back James White was the man in the second half, after both Blount and Dion Lewis struggled to contribute. White caught a Super Bowl record 14 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown, and he scored the team's last two touchdowns and added a two-point conversion. He was everything Blount and Lewis weren't: poised, effective, gutty, and clutch.

Among receivers, rookie Malcolm Mitchell proved the indispensable man. He caught five passes in the second half, four of them for important first downs. He and White became Brady's go-to guys as the Falcons doubled Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett. Bennett and Danny Amendola had a few big catches, especially Amendola's important fourth-down conversion on the Pats first touchdown drive, and his quick-out for another TD.

But the catch of the game was a tipped-ball-dive-forward-as-defenders-fall-all-around-you-and-grab-it-just-before-it-touches-the-field-and-control-it-among-defender's-feet-over-the-middle 23-yard catch by Edelman. This was the Pats version of the David Tyree and/or Jermaine Kerse catches of the past.

The offensive line picked a really bad time to have their worst game of the year. Atlanta had five sacks (24 yards), and officially eight QB hits (though they listed it at 15 during the broadcast). The Falcons didn't do any special blitzes, they just overpowered the Pats line, pushing them around in both the pass and run game.

Brady ended up with a SB record for yards and completions, but that was despite the line, not because of them. The best protection Brady had all day was throwing the ball quickly or tiring out the D-line with long drives. Oh, and the running game was mediocre, again testament to how poorly the O-line played.

The real defensive star of this game was coach Matt Patricia (more on him later). But among players, it had to be defensive lineman Trey Flowers, who tied for the team lead with six tackles and had 2.5 sacks (for 26.5 yards in losses), two tackles for loss, and five QB hits all on his own. The rest of the line was invisible on the stat sheet, but Alan Branch played well stuffing the inside runs.

Linebacker Dont'a Hightower turned in the defensive play of the game, a strip-sack that gave the Patriots the ball and life in the game. The Patriots scored a touchdown on that possession, making it a one-score game. Other than that, it was a very weak game for the LBs. Elandon Roberts was out of position or overmatched much of the game and Rob Ninkovich couldn't cover the backs out of the backfield. The entire linebacking corps totaled seven tackles; a paltry number for a Patriots defense.

The defensive backs were a real mess for much of the game. But you can't disrespect them too much; they had 25 of the team's 44 tackles. Logan Ryan mostly covered Julio Jones and by game's end, Malcolm Butler had Taylor Gabriel. But the Pats changed coverage multiple times throughout the game, looking for something that worked. They never really shut down Atlanta. Every DB got beaten at some point; though each of them made important plays, too. And with the changes in coverage it's just too difficult to judge who played well without additional film study.

Special teams saw its share of ups and downs. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed an extra point and then screwed up a perfectly good onside kick. But he also booted two perfect kickoffs late in the game to pin the Falcons deep and give the Patriots a chance to comeback. In all, he forced five returns and the Falcons averaged just 8.4 yards per return. Oh, and that also speaks very well of the coverage teams.

The coaches had two stars and one underwhelming performance. First, head coach Bill Belichick deserves a lot of credit for not panicking down by 25 points. He just kept his players focused on the task ahead and put his team in position to make progress toward a win.

On defense, Patricia's charges kickstarted the comeback with the strip-sack, and they held the Falcons scoreless for the final 23+ minutes. His defenses always get stingier as the game goes on, and it's a puzzlement why he doesn't get more head-coaching buzz than offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

Speaking of McDaniels, he had a poor game for three quarters. His last play-call of the first half was just plain strange (screen pass to Bennett with 11-seconds on the clock). And once again, he got schooled for most of the game by a seasoned NFL defensive coordinator. McDaniels is good at putting together a game plan, but if his first plan doesn't work, it takes him too long to adjust to Plan B.

One last note on the coaching, the Patriots are not Super Bowl champs today without a big mistake by the Falcons coaches. Atlanta had the ball on the Pats 22 yard-line with a first down and 4:40 left in the game. If they take a knee three times, it either runs the clock or takes all of the Pats timeouts. And then they can kick a field goal for a two-score lead.

It's head coaching malpractice to pass the ball there. But that's what they did; leading to a 12-yard sack, a holding call, and eventually, a punt back to the Pats with a one-score lead.

So where does that leave us? Super Bowl Champs, natch! The off-season will start soon enough, but for now, this was a great game that will merit much discussion. And the other discussions will be about where Brady, Belichick, and the Patriots dynasty rank among the all-time greats. In other words, it'll be your favorite week ever!

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: James White, who merited serious MVP consideration.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots are the Super Bowl team to run more than twice as many plays as their opponent. Their 93-46 ratio is the most lopsided in Super Bowl history.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The NFL should stop hating on the Pats and put them in the Super Bowl every year. Every game they play there is great!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 17-2 & 3-0!

PPS. Trivia answer: Three years ago, I was at Gillette Stadium when the Patriots trailed the Peyton Manning-led Broncos 24-0 at halftime. A Denver fan said at the time: "No lead is safe; you guys have God playing quarterback." His hyperbole was not out of line -- the Patriots mounted a furious comeback to force overtime where they won the game. Until last night, that was the biggest comeback of Brady's career.

Friday, February 3, 2017

Patriots Super Bowl Preview

So it's finally here, Super Bowl LI, the game to end all games... until next year. Your Patriots take on the Atlanta Falcons in what promises to be a high-scoring affair.

Usually in this space you'd see an analysis of the last game the two teams played, with the most important question being if enough had changed to change the outcome. However, the Pats and Falcons last met on the field in September of 2013 -- 28 months ago. And that game will have little bearing on this one; most of the starters are gone on both teams, and the Falcons have an entirely new coaching staff.

So here is a breakdown of what to expect when each team has the ball, key players in each phase of the game, some additional factors, and a completely useless prediction.

When the Patriots have the ball

The Patriots offense can do whatever it wants. Atlanta ranked 11th in yards allowed per pass, 22nd in defensive passer rating, 25th in yards allowed per rush, and were a surprising 27th in points allowed. It doesn't look like they'll be stopping the Patriots third-ranked scoring offense very often.

More interesting is how the Patriots will likely attack on offense. Some expect a heavy dose of heavy formations, with extra offensive linemen and tight ends and running back LeGarrette Blount. Others predict a balance of run-pass, with James White and Dion Lewis running from the spread formation while Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett work the short passing zones.

Atlanta's speed in the secondary makes long passes dangerous, unless they can draw up the safeties in run support. So expect Patriots to play it safe in the first quarter to avoid an early turnover. They will switch between the two ball-control strategies until they see what Falcons head coach Dan Quinn does on defense.

Once they see how Atlanta plays it, the Pats will go to whatever gives them the best match-ups against that defense. That is when the game really begins.

Key Patriots Player: running back Dion Lewis or running back LeGarrette Blount
Key Falcons Player: linebacker Vic Beasley

When the Falcons have the ball

Atlanta's offense is exactly the kind has historically given Patriots fits: a balanced attack with multiple weapons. The Falcons run the ball effectively, quarterback Matt Ryan can use short or long passes to three or four talented receivers who can turn a short pass into a long touchdown in the blink of an eye.

Atlanta led the league in points per game, average yards per pass, QB rating, and passes of 40+ yards. They have three gifted receivers who are hard to cover, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Taylor Gabriel. Their two-back-attack keeps their running backs fresh, and Ryan is the presumptive 2016 MVP.

Despite the two-man running attack, Atlanta won't likely run much on the Patriots. New England ranked eighth in yards allowed per rush, and their disciplined defense will force the cutback runners to hesitate so the rest of the defense can rally to the ball.

Atlanta will make hay with throws over the middle to their second- and third-best receivers. The Patriots usually neutralize the other team's best weapon (in this case, Jones), so Sanu and Gabriel will have to beat man-coverage or find holes in the zone quickly.

The Patriots will likely play safety Patrick Chung close to the line to help with the run and cover the tight end and/or running backs. His ability to diagnose run/pass quickly will be put to the test, as the defense could be undermanned against either tactic if he is out of position.

Key Falcons Player: receiver Mohamed Sanu
Key Patriots Player: safety Patrick Chung


Quick Hits

A) The Patriots own a marked advantage kick coverage. The Falcons allowed almost twice as many yards per punt return (9.6 to 5.0) on the season. And they gave up over three yards of field position to the Pats on kickoffs (average opponent starting yard-line: 22.6 vs.19.3).

B) Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski did have an off year, so Atlanta's Matt Bryant outperformed him in field goals and extra points.

C) In the NFC Championship Game, the Falcons had two false start penalties, a defensive offsides, and a botched snap. Those are all signs the moment was a bit to big for them; and the spotlight will be even brighter this Sunday.

D) In 2016, the Patriots gave up the fewest first-quarter points in the NFL (1.9 average), whereas the Falcons scored the second-most first-quarter points (8.6). It'll be strength vs. strength for the first 15 minutes.

E) A close game late favors the Patriots: they gave up an average of 5.1 points per fourth quarter (5th) and Atlanta gave up an average of 9.4 points per fourth quarter (31st).

Prediction

Neither team will stop the other cold, but the Patriots defense is better-suited to stop Atlanta at least some of the time. And if the Pats score on 75% of their possessions and the Falcons score on only 60%, that's a win for the Patriots.

Additionally, turnovers are key in the postseason, and Atlanta's younger, less experienced players are more likely to give the ball away.

Patriots win: 34-23.

Enjoy the game!

- Scott

PS. 16-2 & 2-0!

Monday, January 23, 2017

Patriots Crush Steelers To Advance To Super Bowl

The Patriots ran the Steelers defense out of the building last night, beating them 36-17 to advance to face the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI(ar). The game wasn't even as close as the score would indicate, as the Patriots scored more points on Sunday than the Steelers scored in two games against New England this season.

It's tough to choose whether the offense or defense had a better game. The Pats scored on 7 of 9 "real" possessions, and put up the most points allowed by Pittsburgh this season. And the defense held the Steelers to 9 points through 57 minutes of playing time, and their 17 total points were their lowest total since November 6.

As is sometimes the case, there are too many superlatives to go over every position group. So here are five things to know in five categories.

Offense

Quarterback Tom Brady destroyed Pittsburgh once again. In addition to his great stats yesterday (32 of 42, 384 yards [Patriots playoff record], 3 touchdowns, 0 INTs, and a 127.5 QB rating), he moved well in the pocket to buy time and nailed every open receiver right between the numbers. He is 8-2 lifetime against the Steelers with 27 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

Running back LeGarrette Blount didn't do as much damage in this game as he did the last time they played Pittsburgh, but his 47 yards rushing included one where he carried the entire Steelers defense five yards and almost scored a touchdown. (Note: he scored on the next play, so it was all good.)

James Devlin caught one pass for 13 yards but most importantly he converted an important third-down on the drive that eventually led to a touchdown that salted away the game at 27-9.

The entire offensive line improved markedly over the last game. They gave up just one bad sack and three QB hits in the game. And at least three times Brady held the ball for five-plus seconds without the Pittsburgh defense laying a glove on him.

Notable was the Patriots offense committed just one penalty in the game. This against a very active front-seven that usually draws a few holds or "hands to the face" penalties every game. Nice discipline by everyone on offense.

Receivers

Chris Hogan set a Pats playoff record with 180 yards, and he did it on just nine catches, for a 20-yard per-catch average. He also hauled in two touchdowns, including one on a beautiful flea-flicker.

Julian Edelman's eight catches for 118 yards and a touchdown were nothing to sneeze at, either. As he usually does, he also converted a high percentage of those catches into first downs, five of them this week. He's also seventh in NFL history with 84 postseason receptions.

Tight end Martellus Bennett had a quiet game statistically, but he is really gutting it out on what is reportedly a broken bone in his ankle. The team has very few tight end options behind Bennett, and he still managed to block well downfield and make five catches on five targets for 32 yards.

Brady completed 78% of his throws, due mostly to receivers finding holes in the defense but also because they caught everything thrown their way.

A quick thank you to the Steelers receivers, who dropped two touchdown passes and had just one touchdown reception on the day.

Defense

Defensive ends Malcom Brown, Alan Branch, Vincent Valentine, and linebacker Dont'a Hightower stopped the Steelers running game cold. And the key to beating Pittsburgh is always to make them one-dimensional.

Safety Patrick Chung stuffed several running plays at the line of scrimmage, stopped a receiver at the half-yard line (saving the Patriots four points), and broke up a pass that forced a Steelers punt -- and the Pats scored a touchdown to make it 27-9 on the ensuing drive.

Corner Malcolm Butler virtually shut down Pittsburgh's star receiver, Antonio Brown. Brown had over half his seven catches against zones, and Butler battled him every play for every yard all night long.

Fellow corner Eric Rowe had a surprising bounce-back game, making four tackles, breaking up two passes, and nabbing his third NFL interception, first in the playoffs.

Linebacker Kyle Van Noy spelled Hightower to keep him fresh and forced a fumble that Rob Ninkovich recovered.

Special Teams/Coaching

Jonathan Jones had two spectacular special teams tackles. The first was a big hit on a kickoff return, and the second was a diving tackle of Antonio Brown on a play where he would have gained another 20 yards if not for Jones.

Punter Ryan Allen averaged ten more yards per punt than his counterpart on the Steelers (48.5 to 38.5).

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels gets kudos for the plan to abandon the run and just pass, pass, pass all game long. He also called for the up-tempo attack that wore out Pittsburgh's defense and allowed the Patriots to run them out of the building. And of course, he called the flea-flicker at the perfect time.

In their last seven games, the Patriots have given up an average of just 5.8 points in the second half. Credit defensive coordinator Matt Patricia for that, and wonder aloud why he gets less interest as a head coach than McDaniels.

Often overlooked, long snapper Joe Cardona finished of a great campaign with another flawless performance.

Negatives

Corner Logan Ryan was as bad in this game as he was great against Houston. He led the team with nine tackles, but mostly because his man caught the ball over and over again.

Stephen Gostkowski missed yet another extra point. Maybe he will fare better in the dome during the Super Bowl.

Malcolm Mitchell's first playoff game was forgettable. He caught one pass and allowed another one to slip through is fingers on third-down, forcing the Patriots to settle for a field goal.

Elandon Roberts was mostly a non-factor against the run, even though he run-blitzed a fair amount in the game.

The Patriots defense had no sacks and just one QB hit in the game. They did force one or two throws to come out early, but they just didn't generate enough pressure on the quarterback.

When you bring a Weather God to the game, you expect better than 40s and rain... just sayin'



(Just kidding, Al!)

So where does that leave us? The Patriots need two things to compete effectively in Super Bowl LI(ar): a healthier Martellus Bennett, and a faster offensive start after the bye week than they had against Houston.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Hogan's stellar day made him the man of the hour.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: It has to be that the Patriots now hold the record for most Super Bowl appearances (9) in the history of any franchise. Who would have predicted that when they went 1-15 in 1990?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Can we play Pittsburgh in the playoffs every year?"

Keep the faith!

- Scott

PS. 16-2 & 2-0!

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Patriots vs. Steelers Playoff Preview

The Patriots play in their sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game this Sunday, taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers with a Super Bowl bid on the line. Usually in this case I'd blog about the most recent game between the teams and whether enough had changed to produce a different outcome. But not this time.

Plenty has changed, that's for sure. Their most recent game was last October, and it was played in Pittsburgh (instead of Foxboro), contested without Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (who is back for this game), featured a standout performance by tight end Rob Gronkowski (out for Sunday's game), and linebacker Jamie Collins led the team with eight tackles (he plays for Cleveland now).


But I won't be delving into all that because after considering all aspects of the game, I believe there is one factor that will decide which team goes on to Houston and which one goes home.

The Patriots Front-Seven Versus Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell

To turn a phrase, Bell is on fire of late. He broke the Steelers' playoff record for rushing yards the last two games in a row, and he hasn't averaged less than 4 yards a carry in any game since mid-November. Much has been made of his stop-and-go running style, and he uses it to set up blockers. But his ability in the passing game might be even more dangerous this Sunday.

Bell The Runner

The Patriots maintain excellent discipline along the line of scrimmage, and they are very big defensively inside with linemen Malcom Brown and Alan Branch, along with linebacker Dont'a Hightower. And if those players control their gaps, Bell won't do much damage up the middle.

However, he could gain yards down the sidelines if the Pats lose outside containment. That is where Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard come in. Both of them have to play with outside leverage, funneling Bell back inside where the rest of the defense can rally to make the tackle.

Long did this pretty well against Houston last week. But Sheard was flat out awful in that game, allowing multiple runs to get outside him for chunk yardage plays. He can't let that to happen again this week, even if it means he never gets any pressure on the QB.

If Bell gets outside, he has the speed and elusiveness to turn a four-yard gain into a 40-yard gain in the blink of an eye. And I'm sure the Patriots coaches have been hammering that into Shear's head all week long.

Bell The Receiver

Even if the Patriots stop Bell from running wild, he could really hurt them as a receiver. He caught 10 passes on 13 targets in last October's game, gaining 68 yards and converting a first down on 40% of those plays. In fact, he generated as many first downs receiving as he did rushing, even though he ran the ball more than twice as often as he caught it (21 to 10).

The Patriots simply had no answers for Bell when he came out of the backfield as a receiver. Their linebackers could not keep up, and that was with Collins in the fold. It could be even worse without him -- they simply do not have a linebacker with the speed to keep up with Bell play-after-play.

And that will likely be the crux of the game. The Patriots have a few options to consider. By now the gameplan is in place, but here is what you might see on Sunday.

They could employ their now-famous "Bullseye Defense," and hit Bell on every play, even when he doesn't have the ball, sacrificing QB pressure in the process. They used this to win their first Super Bowl, with Marshall Faulk being the target that day.

The coaches might call more blitzes, forcing Bell to stay in and block. But this only works if they correctly anticipate whether the play will be run or pass. If they blitz into a running play, one missed tackle can lead to a 25-yard run.

I think they are most likely to play a three-safety scheme. This would allow them to have Patrick Chung spy Bell and cover him if he comes out of the backfield. The downside is that either Duron Harmon or Devin McCourty would be responsible for the tight end, which is either a bad tight-end matchup (if it's Harmon) or would weaken their ability to stop the deep pass (if McCourty covers tight ends).

Referendum Game

No matter what scheme the Patriots use, this game will likely be a referendum on the Jamie Collins trade. Collins wasn't great in pass coverage, but his replacements are particularly poor at it. That hasn't hurt them to this point. But if Bell dominates in the passing game and the Patriots lose, many will question whether the Collins trade cost them a Super Bowl berth.

The NFL is a results business. If a decision works, it was the right one. If it doesn't, the decision-maker is judged incompetent.

So head coach Bill Belichick needs to pull out all the stops to win this one. Because if he doesn't, it will crack the facade of "In Bill We Trust" for many fans.

Enjoy the game and keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 15-2 & 1-0!

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Patriots Pull Away Late for 34-16 Win Over Texans

In a game that more closely resembled the preseason than the playoffs, the Patriots rode a dominant second half to a 34-16 win over the Houston Texans yesterday. The victory was fueled by the defense, big plays on offense, and an historic first for Pats running back Dion Lewis. Next Sunday the Patriots host the AFC Championship Game for the seventh time since Robert Kraft bought the team in 1993.

Houston employed a unique defensive approach, flooding the middle of the field to stop the run and most short passes. This forced the Pats to throw deeper than usual and outside the numbers, which is not their normal offense, and their frustration showed. However, once they figured things out, they used big plays to turn field position and score.

Quarterback Tom Brady was under pressure all day long, as the Texans used multiple blitz looks to get free rushers. When they rushed just three, Brady had all day, but that was rare in the game; he ended up being sacked twice and hit eight other times. His stat line was poor: 18 of 38 (47%) for 287 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions (as many interceptions as he threw all regular season), and a 68.6 QB rating. And he could easily have been picked a third time.

His receivers did a great job adjusting to long passes that were either jump balls or thrown short to keep the ball away from defenders. Julian Edelman (8 catches for 137 yards) and Chris Hogan (4 for 95) caught long passes that flipped field position, mostly down the sidelines, and mostly on throws that required excellent adjustments on their part. Newcomer Michael Floyd just wasn't in sync with Brady; their missed timing on slants cost one interception and nearly a second. More work to do before he's a big part of the offense.

The Patriots running game was non-existent until the fourth quarter. 70 of their 98 yards came in the final 15 minutes, including a few wide-receiver runs and two reverses. Other than that, they were stoned time and again. And given the amount of pressure on Brady, the backs deserve a bad grade for picking up blitzers, too.

The best things the running backs did all day were the two touchdown catches. Dion Lewis took a short throw and ran around end for a 13-yarder. And James White outran a linebacker to get open down the right side where Brady hit him with a perfect rainbow pass. The worst thing the RBs did was the two fumbles by Lewis; one as a back and one as a kickoff returner.

The offensive line was alternatively really bad and really solid. They looked confused by blitz schemes and stunts, allowing untouched rushers to crush Brady repeatedly. But when they faced three or four rushers, they held stronger than that amazing wall they are planning on the Mexican border. Still, with the poor rushing attack and too much pressure on the QB, they get a bad grade. Nate Solder and center David Andrews looked particularly overmatched most of the game.

The defensive star of the game was cornerback Logan Ryan. He had a sack, a tackle for a loss, a QB hit, an interception, knocked away three passes, and made eight total tackles. Safety Patrick Chung was solid in coverage, and Devin McCourty had an interception and broke up the pass that turned into Ryan's interception. However, Eric Rowe gets the booby prize for the day, giving up at least four receptions and committing a boneheaded personal foul penalty that extended a Texans drive on which they scored.

Dont'a Hightower led the linebackers with eight tackles, though Rob Ninkovich had a better rounded game with two tackles, a sack, a tackle for a loss, a QB hit, and even an pass defended. Kyle Van Noy was more up-and-down; made some nice plays down the field but almost no impact near the line of scrimmage. And Shea McClellin and Elandon Roberts showed their inexperience in this one, neither making the plays that were there to make and both busily taking on blockers when they should have been making tackles.

Three of the defensive linemen played pretty well. Alan Branch had seven tackles, Trey Flowers had seven, and Malcom Brown had six tackles and a sack. But they only get okay reviews because they gave up long running plays and didn't generate enough pressure in the first half. Once the team made adjustments for the second half things went better, but that doesn't wipe out a mediocre first half. Noteworthy is that Jabaal Sheard reverted to form, pushing his rush lane too far inside and giving up running plays and one huge QB scramble to his side.

Special teams kicking was great; Stephen Gostkowski was perfect on the day and punter Ryan Allen had two more kicks downed inside the Houston five yard-line. But Lewis offset his 98-yard kickoff return touchdown with a fumble later in the half that helped get Houston back in the game.

So where does that leave us? Hosting the AFC Championship Game is about as good as you could hope for at this point in the season. The winner of the Kansas City/Pittsburgh game tonight will travel to Foxboro to play for a Super Bowl berth.

The Patriots have one health concern; tight end Martellus Bennett left the game limping, and he's their only decent tight end. So here's hoping he is a fast healer.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Logan Ryan takes it this time; his play was crucial to stopping the Texans on at least three drives.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Lewis' is the first player in NFL history to record a running TD, passing TD, and return TD in the same playoff game.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: Allen's second stellar performance. How often does a punter have two punts downed inside the five yard-line in two games against the same team in one season?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Warm ups are over, next week it'll be a real team and the Pats will need to play better for sure."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 15-2 & 1-0!

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Patriots/Texans Playoff Preview

With the Pats/Texans game coming up in two days, here is my review of how things might have changed since their last meeting.

The Patriots dominated that previous meeting, a 27-0 beatdown in Foxboro last September. A lot has changed for the Patriots and the Texans since then; here is a quick list of what will look different this Saturday in Foxboro.

Patriots Offense

Rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett made his first NFL start in the regular-season game. Tom Brady will be making start number 267 this weekend. The Texans weren't sure what to expect from Brissett, but they know full well what Brady brings to the table. He has a 6-1 lifetime record against Houston, his last win a 27-6 shellacking in the Lone Star state.

Brady will throw to two receivers that the Texans didn't see much from last time: rookie Malcolm Mitchell and free agent signee Malcolm Floyd. Mitchell had just one catch in the earlier contest, but he's come into his own late in the season, averaging four catches and almost 58 yards over the last six games. And Floyd went beast mode in the season finale, carrying six Dolphins into the end zone on one play and blasting a would-be tackler on a 77-yard touchdown run by Julian Edelman.

Finally, running back LeGarrette Blount punished the Texans on the ground (105 yards and two touchdowns), but he will have much more help in the rematch. Shifty back Dion Lewis returned to his pre-injury form and provides the perfect complement to Blount's bruising style. And James White had his least productive game against Houston, improving as the year went on, much like Mitchell.

Patriots Defense

In personnel terms, the main difference this time will come at linebacker. Jamie Collins dominated the first game, but ended up traded to Cleveland, and long-time starter Jonathan Freeney played in September but is on IR for this game. Defensive captain Dont'a Hightower missed the first game, Shea McClellin barely got on the field (28% of the defensive snaps), rookie Elandon Roberts didn't play at all, current starter Kyle Van Noy wore a Lions uniform, and defensive end Rob Ninkovich missed the first game and moved to linebacker to provide experience and depth. I know, that's a lot of changes (and a really long sentence... sorry).

The talent probably took a hit overall. But schematically the coaches settled on a regular LB rotation, and that allowed them to experiment with more looks and schemes in the secondary and on the line of scrimmage. The Patriots employ more corner and safety blitzes now, and they also work more stunts and twists up front on the defensive line. They shut out the Texans in September, and the defense has more tricks up its sleeve for the rematch.

The other big change is the play of Trey Flowers. He started the season slowly and played just 61% of the defensive snaps against Houston. However, around mid-season he took off in this defense. All seven of his sacks have come in the last nine games, and every one of them came in big games: Buffalo, Seattle, Baltimore, and Denver.

(BTW, strange to think that the second Buffalo game was a big one -- but at the time, a loss would have put the Bills one game behind the Pats *with* the head-to-head tie-breaker.)

Texans changes

Some people think the loss of J.J. Watt presents the biggest problem for Houston. But his back injury obviously slowed him in the first game, and he wasn't much of a factor. Losing Watt isn't a good thing, but honestly his absence doesn't change things much from the September game.

One thing that did change was the Houston quarterback situation. In fact, it changed multiple times; starter Brock Osweiler was benched for poor play, and his replacement, Tom Savage lasted three starts until a concussion knocked him out. Savage has cleared the concussion protocol, but Osweiler will reportedly start on Saturday, after getting his first playoff win last weekend. All in all that's probably okay with the Patriots -- Osweiler's record and his TD-to-INT ratio against the Pats are identical: 1-2.

Texans defensive end Whitney Mercilus finished the season playing better than he was in September. He had 10 tackles and four sacks in his last two meaningful games, and he's the play-wrecker the Patriots have to worry about on the defensive line. Playing opposite Mercilus is budding star Jadeveon Clowney, who is coming into his own at just the right time for the Texans. He got his first NFL interception last week, and has a sack in three of his last four games.

Special Teams

The first game was probably the biggest special teams blowout the Patriots had since the 2002 AFC Championship Game. They forced two fumbles on kickoff returns, recovering both and scoring touchdowns on each of those drives. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski not only placed his kickoffs perfectly, but he was 2-2 on field goals and 3-3 on extra points. And all seven of Ryan Allen's punts were downed at or inside the Houston 20 yard-line, four of them at or inside the 10.

It's unlikely Saturday's game will feature such a lopsided special teams performance.

Other Factors

The weather will be quite a bit different this time. It was 68 degrees at kickoff in September; current predictions call for 25-ish temps on Saturday. To underline how much that could mean, consider this statistic: warm-weather and dome teams are 0-11 in Foxboro playoff games since 1979. Ironically the last Pats loss in that situation was to Houston -- the 1978 Oilers of Bum Phillips, QB Dan Pastorini, and some running back named Earl Campbell.

(Factoid: the highest-rated Patriots passer in that game was running back Andy Johnson, who completed one touchdown pass for 24 yards, earning him a perfect 158.3 QB rating.)


One last thing to keep in mind is that the previous game was a Thursday night contest. The Texans had to go on the road on a short week, and anyone who follows the NFL knows road teams fare poorly in those situations. The Patriots offense will be better on Saturday, but the Texans will no doubt show up better rested and prepared.

Summary

Probably not enough has changed in the Texans favor to indicate they can turn-around a 27-point loss. However, if they just don't turn the ball over they can stay with the Pats. The Patriots offense traditionally starts slowly after a bye week, so Houston has to capitalize and get a lead early.

Failing that it the Patriots should be able to handle them. But I'd guess tighter than people think: 31-20.

Enjoy the game, and keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 14-2 & 0-0!