For a while it has appeared that 2019 will be Tom Brady's last season in New England. Mostly I thought retirement was the most likely outcome. But now I'm thinking the odds have shifted on his future.
I have come to believe that the most likely scenario is Brady leaving to play somewhere else in 2020. There is a lot of evidence already in place, which I'll list here but not rehash. (A) His contract was re-done so it expires after this year. (B) He and his trainer (Alex Guerrero) put their houses up for sale. (C) He resigned from the local chapter of Best Buddies charity.
In the past few weeks, two new things popped up that helped sway me to believe that TB12 might leave for another team.
The first is that he started making noise about playing until he was 47. My thinking had been that if he was only going to play until 45 (as he asserted previously), it didn't make sense to leave the Pats for a rebuild project somewhere else. If he did that, it would take a year or two to rebuild the new team. And that would give him just one or two shots at another Super Bowl win.
However, if he is planning to play until 47, a one/two-year rebuild gives him three or four shots at another Super Bowl in the new location. IMO, that is a much more attractive option for Brady.
The second thing is that Tom Brady, Sr. said publicly that his son wants to continue playing after this year. He could be wrong, but something tells me he has more information than most when it comes to Tom Jr.'s decision.
Putting these two new facts into the mix changes the picture significantly. I previously thought there was a 50% chance he'd retire, a 40% chance he come back to New England, and a 10% chance he'd play somewhere else.
Now I think it's more like a 60% chance he'll play somewhere else, a 30% chance he'll be back with the Pats, and a 10% chance he'll retire. IMO he is now twice as likely to leave than to stay.
(Note: I have no inside information about this. Zero, zilch, nada, bagel! This is just me putting together information that is known to the public.)
If Brady leaves, the question then becomes which team he would play for in 2020. Here are the three strongest contenders, in my opinion:
1. Miami Dolphins. He knows a lot of the coaching staff there, the weather is much nicer, and they have plenty of salary cap space to pay him absolute top dollar. This would also give him two games a year against the Jets and Bills, teams he has absolutely owned over the years.
A bonus for him might be the chance to stick it to the Patriots twice a year. But that is a double-edged sword -- as he'd have to face Belichick, the greatest coach of all time. No easy task.
2. Tennessee Titans. They have a defense that's ready for prime time, and are a QB away from being a legitimate contender. And as well as Ryan Tannehill has played for them, the organization should be honest with itself about his ceiling. This year is more likely fool's gold than actual treasure.
A huge bonus would be that this division is always (and I mean *always*) mediocre. Since 2013, no team has won 12 games in a season. And multiple division champs were 9-7 during that time. In other words, Brady would *own* this division for the foreseeable future.
3. Los Angeles Chargers. The team moves into a new stadium next year, but they are an afterthought to the LA Rams. Signing Brady would get fans into the stands. And he'd be able to expand his TB12 health centers to the west coast.
The downside is that he'd always be on the "afterthought" team in LA -- because the owner of the stadium owns the Rams. And he'd have to face stronger competition in the AFC West than the AFC South.
Lastly, don't think I'm bummed about this. The media plays it up like it would be a disaster to lose Brady. But that attitude does two things that I don't like.
First, it takes away from watching him and the team now. If fans started worrying about the future when Brady first started to decline, they wouldn't have enjoyed the last three Super Bowls as much as they could.
Second, it assumes that the Patriots will be lost without Brady. I don't think that will ever be true as long as Belichick is in New England.
I've said for years that Belichick gets you to the playoffs almost every year. But it's Belichick/Brady that got the team to nine Super Bowls and won six Championships.
Without Brady, Belichick probably would have won one or two Super Bowls. So without Brady going forward, don't expect the Pats to fall off a cliff.
I still hope Brady doesn't leave. But if it does, get ready for: "We're on to Stidham."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 10-3!
As you've no doubt noticed, there was a disturbing lack of emails and updates during the playoffs. Sorry folks, but life intruded and I just didn't have the time.
However, I did have a few thoughts on the big game, now that they've gotten there. Mostly, it's the keys to the game when the Pats are on offense and defense. Here we go...
When the Patriots have the ball
When the Pats are on offense, it'll come down to how LA defensive coordinator Wade Phillips does. He struggled to stop Brady for years (his defenses literally went almost 10 years without intercepting a single Brady pass), but he's beaten the GOAT the last two times. And he won those games by bringing pressure instead of sitting back in a zone. (Also, it didn't hurt that Peyton Manning helmed the offense for those Broncos teams.)
You can bank on Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will have a great plan entering the game. Because in the first two playoff games, his plans have been nearly flawless. Here are the numbers for the first two drives of the games against the Chargers and Chiefs:
- 25:00 of possession time
- 286 yards
- 9 of 10 on third down conversions
- 21 points
And if not for a foolish interception by Brady, it would have been 10 of 10 on third down and 28 points in four possessions. Impressive beginnings to both games, to say the least.
McDaniels is dialed in this year. The previous seven playoff games, New England failed to score a first-drive touchdown. This year, they were unstoppable early in their first two games.
This is where Phillips comes in. In the two games he beat Brady, his defense totaled 7 sacks and an amazing 26 QB hits! He brought pressure and it paid off.
For the record, both games were in Denver, where the crowd noise made it harder for the Patriots O-line to communicate. And that won't be the case in the Super Bowl; that corporate crowd will only be slightly louder than a theater playing "A Quiet Place."
But Phillips should have learned his lesson by now. He took one thrashing after another playing his usual "four man rush, seven man zone." If he tries it again this Sunday, the Patriots will already be over halfway to a victory.
When the Rams have the ball
On Los Angeles possessions, it'll all come down to whether Jared Goff turns the ball over in the first half. The LA quarterback gave up 18 turnovers (5 fumbles lost, 13 interceptions) this past season, which is slightly more than 1 per game. And Belichick defenses usually confused young quarterbacks, especially the first time they face a Belichick defense.
Add to that this year's D-coordinator (and soon-to-be Miami head coach) Brian Flores, who employs multiple exotic defenses and schemes all over the field. The Patriots ran more stunts and games up front, and deployed more of the Amoeba, Bullseye, and "one down lineman" fronts than in past years. It's paid off by masking a general talent drain, but that aside, it's been extremely effective.
But it works best in the first half. Best evidence of that is the two Chiefs games. KC scored a total of 9 first half points in the two games, but they scored 62 total in the combined second halves. This shows the Patriots defense is hard to decipher at first, but once good offensive teams figure it out, watch out!
Goff doesn't need to get off to an amazing start. His young counterpart, Patrick Mahomes, didn't for the Chiefs, but they still came back to tie the game in the second half.
However, if Goff commits the cardinal sin, if he turns over the ball (especially in the first half), it'll spell real trouble for the Rams.
The rest of it
As for the rest of it, it's mostly a wash. The Patriots have much more experience, but the Rams have more talent. The Pats have a perceived coaching advantage, but no one has seen LA wunderkind Sean McVay in the big game, so no telling how he will do.
Each team's special teams have advantages and weaknesses, but those should mostly cancel each other out. And both offensive and defensive lines are playing their best football of the season right now.
Aside from the experience advantage, the Patriots do have one other thing in their favor: the two-week break. Think back to how dominant they were from the get-go against the LA Chargers. That was after a Bye week.
Rest can't be overrated for a team with this many veteran players. And the first two playoff games showed how much it helps.
That's about it; hope you enjoy the game and that you enjoyed my thoughts on the season. I'm sure I'll write up something post-game -- here's hoping it's a celebration, not a lamentation :D
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 13-5 & 2-0!
