Patriots Earn A Playoff Bye, Crushing Jets 38-3

The Patriots took care of business, beating the listless Jets 38-3 to secure the #2 playoff seed and a week off before their next game. The win was predictable; Tom Brady is now 14-2 against the Jets in regular-season home games. In two weeks, the Patriots will host the Texans, Ravens, or Chargers at Gillette Stadium.

There was very little to learn from the Jets game. Reports were that some New York players skipped meetings this week because they were sure the coach was going to be fired. They had checked out, and it showed in the game.

However, three trends about this Patriots team have emerged since mid-season.

1. Defensive improvement

Starting in week eight, the Pats gave up 68 points in two games to Tennessee and Miami (34ppg), and 78 points in the other seven games total (11ppg). And those seven games included tilts with the potent Packers and Steelers offensive teams, the Steelers game in Pittsburgh.

The secondary is playing much better, with rookie JC Jackson taking over the second corner position and linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts improving more than you could possible expect. Also, discipline within the scheme along the front four/five is much better than earlier in the year.

They still give up lots of yards, but are making teams settle for field goals and turning the ball over much more often. There won't be any bad offenses in the playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see if the Steelers game was poor play by Pittsburgh or better play by the Patriots defense.

2. Running the football

Excepting the losses to Tennessee and Miami, the Patriots averaged 153 rushing yards a game in the last nine contests. The offensive line has been dominant of late. And fullback James Develin has been a devastating blocker in multiple games.

It's true that this is partly out of necessity, because the passing attack has been mediocre. But it's also true that other teams knew the Patriots were going to run, and they still couldn't slow them down.

3. Diverse offensive attack

Over the years, the Patriots have succeed in the playoffs more often when they used a lot of receivers and runners on offense. That kind of diverse attack always served the well, because teams usually key on your best performers in the playoffs.

To that point, in four of their last five games, three or more rushers had double-digit yards on the ground. And in two of those games, they had five such rushers. It makes it tough to key on one player, and also means the Patriots can bring in fresh legs over an over to attack defenders who have been on the field all game long.

And in the last six games, the Pats had at least five players with multiple receptions in five of them. Again, this just makes it tough to key on one guy, giving opposing defenses fits and lots of players to cover.

In the past, teams would often double-team Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. And despite Gronk's lesser production this year, teams leave him singled-up at their own peril. But even if they only double Edelman, that leaves Gronk, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett (who has been coming on), James White, Rex Burkhead, and Cordarrelle Patterson in one-on-one coverage.

4. Quick hits

A. The Patriots have four non-offensive touchdowns this year, two on special teams and two on defense.

B. Despite a lot of consternation about the number of Patriots penalties, they are third-best in the league, committing less than 50 yards worth of penalties per game.

C. The kickoff returns are a real concern. The Jets average start after a kickoff was the 32 yard-line; not good.

D. The last time the Patriots clinched a playoff bye the last weekend of the season with an 11-5 record was the 2001 season. IIRC, they won the Super Bowl that year :D

Where does that leave us. We can all relax next weekend, as the next Patriots opponent takes a beating Wild Card Weekend. If you want to root for something, hope the Chargers win and the #6 seed loses (the Colts, Titans, and Steelers, depending on tonight's game). That would put division rival LA in Kansas City, which is always a tough draw in the playoffs.

Biggest ongoing concern: It's inconsistency. In 2019, penalties, poor kick coverage, missed field goals, bad defensive calls, and poor tackling have all cost the team games. It's amazing they have a playoff bye at all. But now that they do, they need to shore up those issues, because they aren't more talented than the other teams in the post-season.

Statistical oddity: The Pats gave up 34 points in one game against Miami, and 41 total points in their other five AFC East tilts.

Water-cooler wisdom: "After all the hand-wringing, the Pats are two wins away from the Super Bowl yet again."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  11-5 & 0-0!

Patriots Top Packers 31-17

The Patriots scored two late TDs to take a 31-17 decision over the Packers at Gillette last night. The win helped them keep pace with the Chiefs, still one-game behind them for the #1 playoff seed in the AFC. Next week is a trip to Tennessee to visit with old friend Mike Vrabel (the head coach there).

I'd like to do something different this week. A quick breakdown of the offense, and some in-depth stuff on the defense, which has been fascinating to watch this season.

The Patriots pulled out all the stops on offense. They used two flea-flickers, played receiver Cordarrelle Patterson at running back (btw, he led the team with 61 yards and averaged 5.5 yards per run), and targeted fullback James Develin more times (2) than receiver Chris Hogan (1).

Tom Brady mastered things pre-snap, but he was off on several throws again, just like last week. The absence of Sony Michel and Gronkowski hurts them a lot. Without those two, there is more pressure on James White, and at the moment, the receivers can't get separation without Gronk to take defenders off of them.

As for the defense, the team has put in some really interesting wrinkles. In the past, they've changed defensive schemes midway through games, sometimes having a different plan for each quarter. But for the most part, those were changes from 1-gap to 2-gap on the D-line, from man to zone, or from pressure to dropping eight into coverage.

However, in this game the changes were much more dramatic. They started mixing in what I'd call their "novel defenses." These are the non-standard defenses that Belichick and his staff mostly put in for single games, where they needed to confuse the opposing QBs or receivers.

Here are three examples they used last night. The Amoeba, where multiple defenders mill around pre-snap so the offense doesn't know what they are going to do. The Bullseye, where a specific player is targeted to get hit every play (famously used against Marshall Faulk in Super Bowl 36). And an unnamed one where nine or ten players are at the line of scrimmage, but instead of man-coverage, they drop into a zone.

I saw the Pats use the Amoeba a few times, the Bullseye at least five times, and the unnamed defense 5-8 times. (And that's just my count watching live, the actual numbers were likely higher.) And they switched from one to another within the same drive, giving Aaron Rodgers and his receivers a lot to think about every single drive.

Additionally, new D-coordinator Brian Flores has the front four doing more stunts and games, sometimes allowing them to ignore running backs to get after the QB. He also called the soft-release-undercut highlighted in the Bills game by Chris Collinsworth during the broadcast. Collinsworth said specifically that every QB in the league reads the soft-release to mean it's a deep safety, so having Devin McCourty undercut it would get an INT off of any quarterback in the league.

It's that kind of game-within-the-game, anticipating how your opponent will respond to you, that keeps the Patriots a step ahead of the rest of the league. They even had a play last night, where O-coordinator Josh McDaniels called a double-pass that was a designed *screen* pass instead of a home run ball. It was so unexpected (and so well executed) that it nearly went for a touchdown anyway!

The Patriots talent isn't what it has been in past years. But the innovations from their coaches, along with players who can execute those plays (and change modes so quickly) makes them ever dangerous. It's another example of the Patriots playing chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers.

In my opinion, if they could couple that with the talent of the Rams (for example), they'd threaten for a perfect season every year.

So where does that leave us? 7-2 and still breathing down the necks of the Chiefs. The division isn't quit a foregone conclusion yet; the 5-4 Dolphins are only two games back, and the teams play in Miami later this year.

Biggest on-going concern: The health of Gronkowski and Michel. Edelman doesn't have the same burst out of his breaks, so they need Gronk to draw coverage. And without Michel, the workload on James While will be too much by season's end.

Non-Brady MVP: Trey Flowers, a one-man wrecking crew on defense.

Statistical Oddity: One week after being criticised in this space, Ryan Allen posted the best regular season net average of his career: 49.7 yards per boot, no returns. Not bad... maybe I should criticise one of the cornerbacks next week :D

(Trivia question: Allen did have a playoff game with a higher average, can you guess the year or the opponent? Answer below.)

Weekly water-cooler wisdom: "Gadget plays might not win it all for you, but wins now can get you home field, which could win it all for you."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 7-2!

PPS. My "perfect season" of predictions just went by the wayside. I predicted before the season that the Packers would win this game. But I'm always happy to be wrong about a loss :D

PPPS. Trivia Answer:
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In Allen's rookie year of 2013, he had one punt for a 55 yards, and minus-1-yard return, for a net average of 56 yards. The opponent? The hapless Colts, of course!

Patriots Handle Colts, 38-24

By now you almost certainly know the Patriots beat the Colts, 38-24, last Thursday night. The victory puts them at 3-2, and with the Dolphins loss today, they are now tied for the AFC East lead. Seems like a long time ago the Pats were in a "must win" situation against Miami.

I just got around to watching the full game and had a few thoughts to share.

The Pats weren't as impressive as the score indicated. Even though the offense is starting to find its groove, the two tipped-ball interceptions kept the Colts in the game. And without a fluky INT by the Pats' Jonathan Jones, the outcome could well have been in doubt. New England will have to play better against teams that aren't as undermanned as Indy was.

Julian Edelman looked very good in his return, notwithstanding the one pass he dropped. His routes were crisp, and he showed his same old moves once he had the ball in space. That includes his two punt returns. (Note: looks like he'll be doing that for the rest of the season - the Pats cut Cyrus Jones, who was signed two weeks ago to return punts.)

Tom Brady was outstanding. Neither INT was his fault, and in fact, both should have been completed passes. He stood strong in the pocket, absorbing hits to complete passes, some of them ridiculous (one to Gronkowski was particularly amazing). And in general, his command of the field has been great the last two weeks.

The running back tandem of Sony Michel and James White are playing great. White had 10 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. While Michel had 18 carries for 98 yards and a touchdown. As the season progresses, expect them to improve their balance of running plays and pass receptions. And once they do, the offense will be even more dangerous. (Note: both have been decent in pass protection, too.)

I wasn't as impressed with Josh Gordon as some. His TD catch wasn't so much a great play as a blown coverage by the Indy defense. #41 of the Colts took a terrible angle with the ball in the air, allowing Gordon to slip between him and the corner. Also, Gordon missed the read on a comeback route, leading to a Pats punt when it should have been an easy first down.

Still, Gordon is learning the offense (caught a tough one over the middle), and as he gets the route-trees down, he should be more and more effective.

On defense they did what they needed to do, no more no less. The secondary is playing much better, though they were helped by several Indy drops. The linebackers are okay, though their supposed star, Dont'a Hightower, isn't recovering from his injury very quickly. And the defensive line is playing with energy and mucking things up for the other offenses, which helps the back seven immensely.

Devin McCourty's 14 tackles led the team, but he got beaten in coverage a few times. However, he probably made up for it with a Bruschi-esque strip of the ball for a turnover. The secondary did knock away 10 total passes; some games they have only one or two. Devin's twin brother Jason had two of those, Jones two more, and Stephon Gilmore had three.

The D-line looks like a bunch of interchangeable nobodies. But they are playing well together, doing more stunts and games up front while keeping the last two QBs in the pocket. Trey Flowers is the only star in that group, and his return has paid dividends. And I'm still seeing some special blitz packages from D-coordinator Brian Flores, which I expect will help them as they move through the season.

Special teams continues to be a sore spot. This week, they had a chance to pin Indy back at their 20 after the Colts had a penalty on a kickoff. Instead, the Pats took the five-yard penalty, kicked it through the end zone, and had a penalty of their own! So they lost 10 yards on that trade, with a decision that actually made no strategic sense at all.

And punter Ryan Allen boomed a 59-yard punt, only to have it returned 33 yards because he outkicked his coverage. Those little mistakes haven't cost them any games to this point. But they need to clean up their special teams strategy and execution if they expect to make a run toward the playoffs.

So where does that leave us? 3-2 and atop the AFC East sounds about right. The next game is against KC on Sunday. Should be a barn-burner, as the Chiefs are 5-0 and their QB is on fire of late.

Biggest on-going issue: Special teams play takes the top spot for a week. ST coach Joe Judge needs to clean up the mistakes and stop with the strange kickoff strategies.

Non-Brady MVP: For the second straight week, James White edges out a win. Almost gave it to Patrick Chung, but White was more important.

Statistical oddity: On two consecutive offensive plays, the Patriots scored 34-yard touchdowns (one a Michel run, the other a Gordon reception.)

Weekly water-cooler wisdom: "Why is the KC game always the pivotal one?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 3-2!

Fish Squished, Patriots Rout Miami 38-7

If you took the Dolphins getting 30 points; you and they still lost yesterday :P

The Patriots outclassed the current AFC East leaders, throttling them 38-7 in a game not even that close. The victory helped the Pats pick up a game on Miami in the division (still one game back), and also on the Bills and Jets, both of which lost.

This game was the polar opposite of last week. Everyone appeared to play or coach much better, and it'll be hard to pick out many negatives (though that usually doesn't stop me). But the offensive turnaround in this game was helped greatly by three players who weren't with the team last year.

Rookie running back Sony Michel was consistently good from beginning to end. He ran with power and elusiveness, toting the rock 25 times for 112 yards and his first NFL touchdown. He was not involved in the passing game, as he has had trouble picking up the routes. But improvement there should come with time. Meanwhile, it's nice to have a semi-replacement for Dion Lewis.

Oft-troubled receiver Josh Gordon was key to keeping three drives alive, and all three ended in scores (17 total points). His first reception with the Patriots was a first-down grab on third-and-six. Early in the second quarter, an incompletion thrown his way drew a flag for another third-down conversion. And in the second half, his second reception converted yet another third down. Nothing earth-shaking, but a good start to his New England career.

And even oft-maligned receiver/kick returner Cordarrelle Patterson got into the act, with an electrifying 55 yards touchdown bomb. He also had a nice run on an end-around, and should have drawn an interference call on a quick throw in the end zone on the first drive. Regrettably, he fell down yet again after catching a swing pass... sigh. But overall, serious improvement in his pass receiving.

As for the regulars on offense, QB Tom Brady played a decent game: 23 of 35 (65.7%), for 274 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 94.2 QB rating. That rating would be higher is he'd stop throwing long passes to Phillip Dorsett, two of which were picked off in this game. But he also had a ridiculously great throw on James White's touchdown, lofting it high before White even broke to the corner of the end zone.

Dorsett had an outstanding touchdown catch of his own, summersaulting through the air to get the ball just before it hit the ground. White also was his usual dependable self: 8 catches for 68 yards, and a great TD run. And tight end Rob Gronkowski was okay, but had to leave with an ankle injury.

The O-line did a great job blocking for the run, and an okay job pass protecting. Brady wasn't sacked, but he did get hit seven times and was hurried a fair amount.

The defense was nearly unrecognizable from the week before in Detroit. They played with energy and speed, blew up plays before they got started, and used new rush techniques that I'll get to in a moment.

The names on the defensive chart are almost unknown. Jonathan Jones is a DB who led the team in tackles with eight and knocked away a pass. John Simon joined the team about 10 minutes ago and had five tackles, including a sack for ten yards! And the teams only INT came from J.C. Jackson, who had played 12 defensive snaps all year before yesterday.

The secondary did a great job of taking away the opposition's first read, forcing the QB to wait in the pocket for an extra beat. And that is when the Patriots secret weapon came into use: they actually rushed the quarterback for a change!

I know that seems radical, but multiple times in this game, they threw off their "rush under control" agenda. They had the interior linemen simply bull-rush toward the QB, pushing the pocket back. At the same time, outside rushers were closing in from the edges, and several plays featured delayed blitzes to further confuse the Dolphins. And that rattled the Miami QB into a bunch of bad throws.

It could be this was only used because the game was in hand and the Patriots didn't fear Miami's running game. But a little birdie told me these strategies will be refined during the season, to be put to the test if/when the Patriots make the playoffs. (And yes, by "little birdie" I mean that voice inside my head that channels Bill Belichick.)

It wasn't perfect on defense, but it was much better than the last two games. Most impressive of all was pitching a shutout until garbage time, despite Miami starting four drives on their own 36, 36, 38, and 40 yard lines (none of which resulted in a score).

Which brings us to special teams, the one weak spot in the game. ST Coach Joe Judge, please have kicker Stephen Gostkowski boot his kickoffs through the end zone whenever possible. He kicked off seven times yesterday, and only once did Miami start inside its own 25 yard line. Stop with the misdirection, trickery, and "cunning plans" -- they aren't working. Gostkowski has one of the strongest legs in the NFL, use it!

So where does that leave us? 2-2 is right where your humble blogger predicted they'd be at this point in the season. With a winnable game against the Colts this Thursday (at Gillette), and with Miami traveling to Cincy, the Pats could be tied for first place by next Sunday.

Biggest on-going issue: Inconsistency. There will be no AFC East crown or playoff run if the Patriots don't play more consistently going forward. The return of Julian Edelman should help, as will continued improvement from Michel. But until they put together three good games, it'll be hard to trust them come December/January.

Non-Brady MVP: After some internal squabbling, it's James White. 8 carries for 44 yards, and 8 catches for 68 yards, and two touchdowns speak for themselves. (Note: it was almost Phillip Dorsett, but his drop of a long pass in the second half cost him the award this week.)

Statistical oddity: Brady tied Vinny Testaverde for most different players one QB has thrown a touchdown to (both have 70). The difference is, Testaverde played for seven teams, Brady just one. (And watch for another entry on this later this year; Brady hasn't thrown one to Michel or Gordon yet!)

Weekly water-cooler wisdom: "Is it time warm up 'Meet the new boss, same as the old boss' yet?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-2!

Patriots Need To Beat Jets This Weekend

Once again the Patriots are in prime position to secure a #1 overall playoff seed. One more win and the road to the Super Bowl runs through Foxboro in the AFC. But if New England plans to make it to Levi Stadium in February, they need to a win in New York this weekend. They should not wait for the last game of the year to sew up that seeding.

The reason the Patriots need a victory on Sunday is it would knock out their toughest potential playoff foe: the New York Jets. A Pats win on Sunday virtually eliminates the Jets from the post-season. And while the rest of the AFC field poses some challenges, the Jets would be the toughest out for the Patriots in the Tournament.

Here is a breakdown of the AFC field, in descending order of much the Patriots should want to face them.

7. New York Jets

First off, the Jets have some history to lean on; the 11-5 Jets beat the 14-2 Patriots in Foxboro in 2011. And that was only a few weeks after the Pats laid a 45-3 beatdown on the Jets in New York.

Also, the 2015 Jets also blitz more than any team in the NFL, which sets them up to exploit the one New England vulnerability that won’t be getting any healthier: the offensive line.

Nate Solder isn’t walking through that door, and neither is Matt Light. The Patriots offensive line problems won’t be improved much between now and the playoffs. And the creative blitz schemes of Jets’ head coach Todd Bowles seem tailor-made to attack the one area the Patriots can’t shore up at this point.

Additionally, no team wants to face a divisional opponent in the playoffs. Historically division games are close, and those close games can be decided by random bounces or a single turnover. Not the kind of risk the Patriots want to take in January.

Pats’ ace in the hole: In his career, Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 1-7 record and a 79.7 QB rating against New England.

6. Kansas City Chiefs

Combine eight straight wins with a 41-14 beatdown in their last game versus the Patriots, and Kansas City is the next toughest foe. Chiefs QB Alex Smith has thrown just 4 interceptions in 424 attempts, for a lower interception ratio than even Tom Brady. And the Patriots who thrive on turnovers, would have a tough time doing so against a Kansas City team with just 12 the entire season (second-lowest in the NFL).

Pats’ ace in the hole: Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 4-1 career against Chiefs head honcho Andy Reid.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are riding high, practically scoring 30 points before warmups are over. The Pats did beat Pittsburgh 28-21 on opening night, but that was without Martavis Bryant and before Ben Roethlisberger got rolling. And even though DeAngelo Williams rushed for 127 yards in that game, a three-headed receiving monster is much more dangerous against the Patriots than two receivers and a running back.

Pats’ ace in the hole: Tom Brady’s career QB rating versus the Steelers is 113.4.

4. Denver Broncos

In Brock Osweiler’s start, the Patriots were missing linebacker Jamie Collins, linebacker Dont’a Hightower most of the game, receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, and even tight end Rob Gronkowski at the end. And Denver still needed overtime to pull out the victory, even at home. So Patriots fans shouldn’t fear Osweiler in Foxboro in the playoffs.

Peyton Manning gives the Broncos a better chance to win in the post-season. But even if he returns, the Denver defense is ill-suited to stop Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman.

Pats’ ace in the hole: New England is undefeated in home playoff games against the Broncos (1-0) and undefeated in home playoff games against Peyton Manning (2-0).

3. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals playoff failures and prime-time game futility are well-documented. Head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in the post-season and quarterback Andy Dalton is 0-4.

And if Dalton can’t go, AJ McCarron isn’t much of an option. He’d be making his fifth or sixth NFL start in a potential game against the Patriots; and quarterbacks are 1-6 in that scenario since Belichick arrived in Foxboro.

Pats’ ace in the hole: Cincinnati has never won a road playoff game in franchise history (0-7).

2. Indianapolis Colts

Even if Indy wins out and makes the playoffs, they wouldn’t likely give the Patriots much trouble. Quarterback Andrew Luck is 0-5 versus New England, and the Indy offense appears to be in shambles, scoring just 36 total points in their last three games.

Patriots fans should salivate at the prospect of a Colts playoff game in the frosty northeast. Add in a chance to stick it to the franchise that leaked info to the press about DeflateGate, and it would be a perfect storm.

Pats’ ace in the hole: Dome teams are 1-5 all time in playoff games in Foxboro, and the last win was 38 years ago.

1. Houston Texans

The Patriots easily dispatched the Texans in Houston two weeks ago, 27-6. And that was without Hightower or Edelman.

True, JJ Watt had just been injured, and he played better last week. But with Houston down to their fourth starting quarterback, and coming north to play outdoors, there’s little reason to think the Texans can take out the Patriots.

Pats’ ace in the hole: Don’t really need one.

Summary

Health will be the biggest determining factor in how deep a playoff run the Patriots can make. But second to health is whom they play. And the Jets are one of the tougher potential outs for New England. All the more reason to pull out all the gadget plays and go for the victory this weekend.

If the Pats fall on Sunday, and they have to face the Jets in the playoffs, Patriots fans should be worried. Very, very worried.

Enjoy the game!

- Scott

PS. 12-2!

Patriots Top Colts, 34-27

The Patriots destroyed decimated pounded slaughtered man-handled pummeled beat the Colts 34-27 last night, running their record to 5-0. The win kept the team in first place in the AFC East, and also helped them keep pace with the other AFC undefeateds (6-0 Broncos and Bengals). Next Sunday it's a showdown with the 4-1 New York Jets in Foxboro.

This game was closer than most though it would be, owing to better offensive play by the Colts. Well, at least for the first half. Indianapolis actually led at the half: 21-20, on the strength of a pick-six (trivia question: what year did the Colts last lead the Patriots at the half? Answer below). But in the second half, it was 14-0 when it counted, with the Colts tacking on a meaningless touchdown late to make the final look respectable.

The Patriots defense shined brightly in this game, nearly pitching a second-half shutout. Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia and his staff made great adjustments, sending mostly a three-man rush and flooding zones with defenders to confuse and frustrate the Colts. They must have figured that running back Frank Gore couldn't beat them on the ground, so why not just load up to stop the pass. (Note: it couldn't have worked better -- Gore was out-rushed by his own quarterback in the second half, 28 yards to 25 yards.)

Defensive lineman Chandler Jones was close to the Colts QB most of the first half, but his 2.5 sacks (for 17.5 yards) came in the second half, along with most of his 4 QB hits and 4 tackles (2 for a loss). Not bad for a guy the announcers said was being neutralized. The rest of the defensive line was nondescript, but each man made a play or two to contribute to the overall performance.

Linebacker Jamie Collins starred again, not only with five tackles, but by "spying" quarterback Andrew Luck all game, mostly shutting down his running and escaping the pocket. Collins also did a nice job in pass coverage and, when called upon, in getting after the QB. Jonathan Freeney also did a nice job, finishing with seven tackles.

However, middle linebacker Jerod Mayo continues to struggle in his return from injury. He couldn't get off blocks to make tackles, was nowhere to be found in pass coverage, and for perhaps the first time in his career, he was shut out of the stat sheet. If Dont'a Hightower's injury keeps him out for a while (he missed yesterday's game), the Patriots better hope newly acquired Jon Bostic can contribute soon.

Before you kill the secondary for giving up too many yards, consider that the coverage was just a tick late on many throws. Malcolm Butler is no Revis, but his coverage was pretty good most of the game, and he battles on every play like the long, lost Kyle Arrington. He also ended up with 8 tackles and 2 passes defended. For all the slurping Logan Ryan got, he was beaten early and often, forcing the Pats to switch from man-coverage to zone, just to protect him. They also had to drop more people into coverage -- which worked against the Colts but probably won't be good enough against better teams.

The Patriots used three safeties a lot, with Duron Harmon at free safety, Patrick Chung at strong safety, and Devin McCourty in a pseudo-safety/corner combo. Harmon did a decent job making sure nothing got behind him, Chung was quite good in coverage, not so great against the run, and even though McCourty was exposed once or twice, he was good for a guy moving back and forth between positions.

On offense, quarterback Tom Brady was sharp as usual. Indy got decent pressure on him about 1/3 of the plays, which is more than usual. Some of that pressure was immediate; yet Brady went 23-37, 312 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception -- good for a 104.8 rating. Although he did fail on a third-and-one QB sneak; first time in a long time that happened.

His rating would have been even better if receiver Julian Edelman had hung onto the ball with his usual skill. Edelman took a big hit on a touchdown reception, and it apparently affected him, as he dropped at least three passes, knocking one of them up where it was intercepted and returned for a touchdown.

Danny Amendola was the receiving star of the game, making 7 tough catches for 105 yards and 4 first downs. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was absent the first half, but nabbed 3 passes for 50 yards (and a touchdown) in the second half. Indy was beating up Gronk off the line, and I'd like to see the Patriots go to the running game in situations like that. Defenders trying to jam Gronk are distracted defenders, and having the tight end block them is nearly a guaranteed win on every down.

It was also nice to see tight end Scott Chandler contribute (2 catches for 39 yards, and a called-back touchdown), and Keshawn Martin (1-39) could be the deep threat they need until Brandon LaFell returns. Also, running backs Dion Lewis (3-18) and LeGarrette Blount (1-11, for a touchdown) had key moments in the passing game.

Speaking of running backs, this wasn't nearly the run-run-runfest that the previous meetings were. Blount did most of the damage, 15 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown. And Lewis spelled Blount when necessary (4-21). But a pedestrian total of 116 yards and 1 touchdown owed mostly to improved interior defensive play by Indy.

Problems along the offensive line were the rest of the story in the Patriots running difficulties. They started out short-handed, moving long-time whipping boy Marcus Cannon to left tackle to replace IR-bound Nate Solder. But when Cannon went down, right tackle Sebastian Vollmer moved to left tackle, and signed-two-minutes-ago Cameron Fleming went in at right tackle.

All that shifting around, along with the commensurate drop in talent, meant a tougher time running the bal. If the Patriots get to the playoffs and end up playing Indy again, they might go right back to running it down their throat. But their current O-line just doesn't have the talent or time together to do that. Not in October.

The Patriots made three key special teams plays. First, they recovered a semi-surprise onside kick (reviewed by officials, and upheld). Second, they had the right call for an attempted Colts fake-punt (one that blew up in Indy's faces). And third, Collins leaped over the snapper and blocked the Colts last extra-point attempt (which made it a seven-point game instead of a six-pointer).

Kicker Stephen Gostkowski also hit six of seven kickoffs so deep they weren't returned. And punter Ryan Allen had a 44.8 net average and two kicks ended up inside the 20 yard line. One concern is a potential injury to special teams captain Matthew Slater. He was hurt on an illegal block in the first half, and had to be helped off with a leg injury late in the second half. This bears watching.

The coaching was a complete mismatch. The "surprise" onside kick was telegraphed and showed desperation on the part of the Colts. The "fake punt" was actually a shift into an illegal formation and then a snap into a defense ready to stop it. (Even Colts head coach Chuck Pagano couldn't understand why they snapped it.) Also, the undisciplined Colts had over 100 yards in penalties, and their coaches never properly adjusted to the Patriots second-half defensive changes.

So where does that leave us? 5-0 sounds pretty good. The next game will be difficult; the Jets always play the Patriots tough and they are doing very well under new coach Todd Bowles. The Jets lead the league in takeaways, so protecting the ball will be key.

Non-Brady MVP of the Game: I'm going with Amendola, who starred at receiver and also returned some punts to give Edelman a break after his injury.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Tom Brady broke Bruce Armstrong's record for most games started for the Patriots: 212 and counting. Since both players were on the team in 2000, that means the last time the Patriots had neither Brady no Armstrong on their roster was 1986!

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Closer than we wanted but a win is a win."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer: the Colts last lead the Patriots at the half on November 2, 2008, when they led 7-6 (and won the game 18-15).

Patriots Corral Cowboys, 30-6

Al (the weather God as Scott refers to me) here filling in for Scott while he's out of town and unable to watch the game until later in the week. Please forgive me if my prose is not as insightful or elegant, my statistics are not as odd or my trivia is not as difficult as you are used to. We will return to our regularly scheduled writer next week, same bat time, same bat channel.

When I was getting ready to watch this game I couldn't envision a way that a Romo-less Dallas team could give New England any sort of trouble. Halfway through the first quarter with the game tied 3-3 a plausible plan was shown to me. Unfortunately for the Dallas Cowboys, they also had to reveal it to Tom Brady and the New England coaching staff who were able to make the necessary adjustments and defuse the situation. Dallas' hard pressure worked early, but it required an unsustainable effort and by half time the Patriots had the game in hand. 

 

It was a rough day physically for quarterback Tom Brady early as he was sacked five times in the first half, and knocked down or hurried many more. (Trivia question: can you name the last time Tom Brady was sacked five or more times in a game? Answer below.) After the fifth sack New England mixed in a heavy dose of running to relieve some of the pressure, which worked somewhat well, but the Dallas pressure off the ends still caused several hurries, knock downs and an additional fumble. The fumble probably should have been called an incomplete pass, but caused no harm as Julian Edleman was able to cover it up for a small gain. Tom's numbers ended 20/27 with two touchdowns and zero picks mostly thanks to quick releases on short passes, some of which came with excellent yards after the catch. If you only looked at Tom's stat line you wouldn't even know how much pressure he was facing. Tom also rushed for a touchdown on a one yard quarterback sneak, much to the joy of fantasy football fans everywhere I'm sure.

On the offensive line, Dallas caused the front five fits all day off the ends and up the middle. Tom was under nearly instant pressure on most passing plays even after the Patriots mixed in a heavier dose of runs. On run blocking the O-line did slightly better but still got beat on a couple run blitzes. All in all I'm sure there will be plenty of adjustments coming next week in practice.

 

On the rushing plays, running back LeGarrette Blount did the majority of the heavy lifting, rushing 13 times for a modest 74 yards. Blount got stopped for minor gains a lot but also ripped off an impressive 34-yard rumble. Dion Lewis tossed in an additional 34 yards on six attempts. A majority of the running plays came late in the second quarter and after with New England all but ignoring the run on their first two possessions. Dion Lewis had a couple of good runs after first contact, but the most spectacular play of the game was his 10-yard catch and touchdown run to finish off the Patriots first drive of the second half. Dion caught a Brady pass in the flat and juked, spun and dove past four separate Dallas defenders to secure the score that pretty much put the game away.

Among the other receivers, your usual suspects shined through again today, but in a less-than-characteristic low volume, high yards manner thanks to some great YAC. Julian Edelman grabbed four passes for 120 yards and a TD. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, was quiet early, but ended the game with four grabs for 66 yards, 33 of which came in a single play where he had some good freight train yards after the catch carrying several Dallas secondary players with him. Dion Lewis had 8 catches for 59 yards and Keshawn Martin and Danny Amendola had a pair of catches each. The Patriots receivers got caught on two offensive pass interference pick plays, a trend that seems to be on the rise and worth keeping an eye on.
 

On defense, New England loaded the box against the run on first and second down playing man coverage on the receivers. This effectively shut down the Dallas running game and put them in to many third and medium to long situations. In those the secondary played a heavy dose of man coverage with safeties over the top. Devin McCourty was seemingly everywhere logging seven tackles. Dont'a Hightower notched four tackles and a sack, but was knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a rib injury and didn't return to play the rest of the game. The defensive eye-opener for me was Jabaal Sheard who only had two tackles, but also added in two sacks in the first half. 

 

The defensive line played well backed up by the line backers clogging up the middle and holding Dallas' run-heavy offense to minimal yards. The one unfortunate notable event was left tackle Nate Soldier left the game with an undisclosed injury and did not return to play. Rob Nikovich didn't show up big on the stats sheet, but was his usual QB-tracking, end-sealing self and was responsible for at least two blown Dallas plays that won't show up on the stats sheet.

The secondary played well in man-to-man coverage as well as holding four downs in a row in goal-to-go at the end of the game. Logan Ryan was the stand out today with two tackles and a pick. Malcolm Butler continues to impress as the Patriots 'feature' corner.

Special teams played very well. Punter Ryan Allen actually had to work for his paycheck this week and consistently kept Dallas in very poor field position. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski was 3 for 3 on field goals including a new personal best 57-yarder to end the half and his only kickoff that wasn't a touchback was downed at the 10-yard line. Danny Amendola had a very respectable 13-yard average on his four punt returns. 
 

So where does that leave us? 4-0 and coming off the bye a game ahead of both the Jets and the Bills and light years ahead of the slumping Dolphins. Next week the Patriots play in the 'Revenge Bowl' in the Sunday Night game against the fading Indianapolis Colts. If you're a betting person, take the over on that one!

Statistical Oddity of the Week (Credit to Scott for providing this): The Patriots franchise lost its first seven games to the Cowboys, and won their next five games against them (including Sunday).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:"Dispatching the Romo-less Cowboys was just an appetizer for the Colts revenge game!"

Keep the faith,

- Al, sitting in for Scott

PS. 4-0!

PPS. Trivia answer: The last time Tom Brady was sacked five times in a game was Week 6 in 2013 against the New Orleans Saints.

Patriots Dismantle Colts, 45-7

The Patriots blew the doors off the Colts last night, smashing them 45-7 and earning a trip to the Super Bowl. It's the eighth trip to the big game for the franchise, and the sixth trip for Tom Brady, an NFL record for a quarterback. The opponent will be the #1 seed in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks, who rode a furious comeback (and several Green Bay miscues) to punch their ticket to Arizona.

More on the Super Bowl later in the week. But for tonight, what a performance by the Patriots. This might be one of the shorter updates ever, since the Pats did exactly what we all thought they would -- they dominated on the ground and handled the weather better than their dome-team opponent.

Two side notes on Andrew Luck's struggles against the Patriots. First, he has played them much more competitively in the first half of games, with an average deficit of just 19-11.5. But in the second half of games, he's gotten steamrolled: the average second-half score is 28-7 Patriots. Second, the average rushing-yardage disparity in his four games against the Patriots: 193 to 72.5. Neither of those seem to be on Luck specifically: one is on poor in-game adjustments, and the other is on the GM and coach for not narrowing the rushing-yard gap.

(Trivia question: when was the last time Andrew Luck led a game against the Patriots? Answer below.)

The game plan was solid, the execution was nearly flawless, and both the offense and defense got better as the game progressed. The decision to put corner Kyle Arrington on the smaller Colts receiver, T.Y. Hilton was brilliant; much better than the previous week when Darrelle Revis covered the smaller receiver against Baltimore, Steve Smith Sr. The coaches even threw in another trick-play wrinkle; with tackle Nate Solder catching a touchdown pass late in the game.

Offensively this game resembled every game since Colts quarterback Andrew Luck entered the league. The Patriots ran it down their throats again, with running back LeGarrette Blount leading the way (30 carries for 148 yards, and 3 touchdowns). In two playoff games against Indy, Blount has 54 carries for 314 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 7 touchdowns. It was all on Blount, too; Tom Brady was the second leading rusher on the night (3 carries, 13 yards).

The offensive line did a great job in pass protection and a decent one in the running game. There were good running holes about half the time, and the other half, Blount ran guys over to get extra yards. The Patriots mostly ran to the right, to avoid Colts defensive lineman Arthur Jones. But they also employed the six- and seven-linemen formations that proved dominant over Indy in the past. The smallish Colts line and linebackers simply can't hold up under that kind of size deficit.

Brady was kept mostly clean, sacked just once and hit only two other times (though one was a high-low shot after he should have been on the sideline, more on that in a bit). He was off early in the game, but he got himself on-track faster this week than last. The final numbers look pedestrian, but bear in mind that the rain and wind made things difficult and there were several dropped passes. Brady went 23 of 35 (65.7%), 226 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 100.4 QB rating.

The dropsies were mostly shared between receivers Brandon LaFell (4 catches for 28 yards) and Julian Edelman (9 for 98). LaFell had one and was out of the offense for a while after that. Edelman had one and they went right back to him; which shows you where those guys are on the pecking order. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was targeted 8 times, but had only 3 receptions (for 28 yards and a touchdown). Brady has a habit of trying to feed Gronkowski, throwing his only interception on double-coverage on the tight end.

The reception-distribution was good again this week. Against Baltimore the Patriots threw the ball more, so the numbers won't equal what they did in that game. But they had four receivers with at least 3 catches, and they targeted Danny Amendola three times, though only one of them was complete. They have to keep this up against Seattle in the Super Bowl, the Seahawks' secondary is too good to get beaten by one or two receivers on a regular basis.

The biggest stat of the game was this: the Patriots only had to make 27 tackles all game long. In 11 years of blogging, this is the lowest number I remember seeing. They were superb on third-down (allowed just 3 of 11 conversions), they had two takeaways, and of the 27 tackles, only 2 were assisted -- which means the first hit was usually the only one needed to bring down the ball-carrier.

The defensive line did a great job holding the edge and collapsing the pocket on Luck. They wanted to make him beat them from the pocket, and by the third quarter it was obvious he couldn't. Outside rushers Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich didn't have stand-out stats. But their upfield rushes pressured Luck into quicker throws or throw aways. Ninkovich ended up with 3 tackles, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 passes defended; not bad.

Jamie Collins paced the linebackers again this week. He led the team with 4 tackles, had a QB hit, an interception, and a pass defended. A well-rounded day. Dont'a Hightower had 3 tackles and -- wait a second... sorry, I got distracted, the Colts just dropped another pass! Where was I, oh, right -- Hightower also did a nice job stuffing the run and getting into the drop zones once the game was all-pass-all-the-time for the Colts.

In the secondary, Darrelle Revis had an interception and two passes defended. And the aforementioned Arrington was great jamming Hilton at the line. He was the Colts best receiver this year, but he caught just one pass on six targets last night. That was largely due to Arrington pushing him around at the line and safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung helping bracket Hilton. Revis missed one series with an injury, but even when he went out, Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler didn't get beaten deep once.

Special teams didn't do anything stupid, and they got a terrific return by Julian Edelman that set up a fourth-quarter touchdown. Contrast that with the Colts: they muffed a punt and the Patriots recovered it, and the Colts missed a field goal in the first half.

The coaching was excellent in this game. The plan to start the game was great; they kept the Colts offense completely under wraps until Brady's interception. And the offense started out much quicker this game than last one. They also won the adjustment battle; as the Patriots outscored Indy 28-0 in the second half.

The only coaching quibble was not getting the starters out of the game earlier. It's okay to leave in Brady if all he's going to do is hand off the ball. But he got crushed with about 6:00 left in the game, even though the result was no longer in doubt. Brady shouldn't have been on the field, let alone taken a shot like that.

So where does that leave us? With a very enjoyable two weeks to look forward to. Lots of Patriots talk, discussions about legacies and dynasties, and debates on which team should be favored and/or will win. Enjoy it while you can; the two week run-up to the Super Bowl is booooring when your team isn't in it!

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Both the AFC and NFC Championship Games features touchdown catches by offensive tackles. Gary Gilliam of the Seahawks got his on a fake field goal. And Nate Solder of the Patriots got his on a tackle-eligible play.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe Boomer Esiason is right; maybe this is the most complete Patriots team since 2004!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 14-4 & 2-0!

PPS. Trivia Answer: In Luck's first start against the Patriots, he held the lead with 12:13 left in the second quarter. That is 222 minutes and 13 seconds of game time ago.

Playoff Preview: Colts at Patriots

It’s Patriots/Colts for all the AFC marbles this Sunday, third time they’ve played for a Super Bowl berth, and fifth time they’ve met in the playoffs. In fact, it was exactly 11 years ago this Sunday that they played in the postseason for the first time, the first playoff matchup of two guys named Brady and Manning. Brady versus Luck doesn’t have the same ring to it, but give it a few years and it might.

The best place to start analyzing this game is their most recent regular-season contest. They played on November 16, 2014, and the Patriots ground the Colts to dust with a 201-yard, 4 touchdown performance by Jonas Gray. The game was close at the half, but the Pats steamrolled them 28-10 in the second stanza.

With that recent game in mind, the question is whether enough has changed from that first game to change the outcome of the AFC Championship Game. Here are some answers.

1. No Luck Against the Patriots

In a lot of ways, the November game was typical for Andrew Luck, because he got waxed all three times against the Patriots. The aggregate score is 144-66, and Luck’s numbers are downright bad: 70 of 130 (58.3%), 6 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and a 67.6 QB rating. And even though he’s known as a quarterback who can run, Luck was sacked as many times as he ran the ball: five.

As for the post-season, his numbers and performance are better this year than in the past. In two playoff games this year, Luck completed 67% of his passes and sports a 90.3 QB rating. Those numbers should be encouraging to Colts fans hoping this will be the week Luck puts it together against New England.

On the other hand, the first two games have been in the friendly confines of his home dome and in 40-degree weather, with no precip and very little wind in Denver. Now we come to Foxboro: 33-degrees and freezing rain or snow during the game. No doubt that weather will slow down the Indy passing game; and they don’t have much of a rushing attack to fall back on.

2. Can Pagano Stop the Patriots Offense?

Colts head coach Chuck Pagano was on staff in Baltimore from 2008-2011, when the Ravens first tasted success against the Patriots. The teams played four times during that span, all in Foxboro. And even though Pagano’s team went 1-3, they outscored the Patriots 94-87, held New England 25% below their season scoring average, and in 2010 they handed the Pats their first home playoff loss since 1978.

Baltimore had always been capable of stopping the run. But Pagano dramatically improved their secondary play and pass defense immediately upon arrival. In his first year, the Ravens went from 29th in the league to 2nd in yards allowed per pass, and from 24th to 1st in opponent QB rating. In other words, Pagano knows his stuff.

That’s why it’s so odd the Patriots continually thrash his Colts. The Pats have averaged 48 points a game against Pagano, post Baltimore. And last weekend the Patriots more than doubled the average points allowed by the Ravens this season -- against a Ravens defense that is miles better than the Colts defense.

If Pagano channels his inner secondary coach and slows down the Patriots short passing game, his team has a chance to win. It might seem weird to target the passing game, given the Patriots recent success running on the Colts (480 yards and 8 touchdowns in their last two meetings). But they have to start somewhere.

Maybe returning safety LaRon Landry will help enough in the secondary. And maybe returning defensive run-stuffer Arthur Jones will slow down the Pats running game. But the betting here is that they won’t stop either.

The Patriots offense is just a bad matchup for the Colts, as currently constituted. If Pagano gets better players, he’s shown he can coach them well. But this game is Sunday, not next year, so he’ll have to go to battle with what he has. And that is unlikely to be good enough.

3. Rushing-Attempt Limbo: How Low Can You Go?

If you think the Patriots 13 rushes for 14 yards were low last week, don’t be surprised if Indianapolis goes even lower on Sunday. The Patriots gave up on the run because they couldn’t gain any yards against the Ravens. The Colts might give up because they had no success in the November tilt with the Patriots, and because they are running out of healthy backs.

The Colts gained just 19 yards on 15 carries in 42-20 loss to New England, with 15 of those yards coming on Luck scrambles. And 13 of the 19 carries were by Ahmad Bradshaw (now on injured reserve) and Trent Richardson (a healthy scratch last Sunday). The team might have to activate Richardson, just to give back Dan Herron an occasional breather.

The problem with the Colts' lackluster rushing attack is it bodes ill in a game that will feature rain, sleet, and snow. The Patriots have shown they can grind out yards on the ground against Indy. The Colts have nothing to show on the ground; and that might cost them in this game.

4. Vinatieri Or Gostkowski?

Adam Vinatieri is a legend in New England. He played an integral part in all three Super Bowl wins, including getting them to the first one with two clutch kicks in the snow. He lifted weights with the linebackers, and he once chased down running back Herschel Walker from behind on a kickoff return. Vinatieri left the Patriots as the most accurate kicker in team history (81.9%) and with the undying admiration of a generation of fans.

Stephen Gostkowski came along to replace Vinatieri nine years ago. And now he is the most accurate kicker the Patriots have ever had, and third-best in NFL history (86.8%). His kickoffs go further than those in Vinatieri’s dreams, and he’s led the league in scoring four times, including the last three consecutive years.

So why do I think that if it comes down to one kick, a money kick for a trip to the Super Bowl, in sloppy conditions in Foxboro -- why does that sound like a tailor-made scenario for Vinatieri? Maybe because he is the all-time leader with 30 postseason games, the all-time playoff scoring leader with 233 points (lapping the field with 33% more than second-place), and the kicker with the most Super Bowl rings in history with four.

Gostkowski has been great, nearly everything you could ask in replacing a legend. But for all he’s accomplished, Gostkowski has a tendency to whiff at big moments. Just this past season, against Green Bay he had a 47-yarder to make it a 2-point game late in the fourth quarter. He missed it wide right.

With the game on the line, who would you rather have? The younger guy with the big leg and more impressive stats? Or the older guy with so many clutch kicks you can’t even remember them all?

5. Dome-field Disadvantage

Face it folks, the elephant in the room is the change of venue. The last time a warm-weather or dome team came to Foxboro and won a playoff game was the aforementioned loss in 1978 (trivia question: name the team, answer below.)

Since 1978, eleven such teams have flown to New England for the playoffs. All eleven came in blustering about how the weather wouldn’t affect them, pointing out that both teams had to play in the same elements, and assuring their fans that they were built for that kind of weather. And all eleven flew home to dust off their golf clubs.

The latest Foxboro forecast is 35-degrees and a 90% chance of pouring rain at kickoff. No doubt it will affect both teams. But if history is any guide, playing outdoors in freezing rain favors the home team. Numbers don’t lie, and an 11-0 Patriots record makes a pretty compelling case.

6. Quick Hits

A) Patriots are 7-3 in AFC Championship Games, average win is 27-16 and average loss is 31-21. The Colts are 4-3 in AFCC Games, average win is 32-17 and average loss is 22-10.

B) Of the teams left in the playoffs, only Indianapolis has a negative turnover-differential. They finished at -5, whereas the Packers were +14, the Patriots were +12, and the Seahawks were +9.

C) Also, the Colts tied for an NFL-worst 15 fumbles lost on the season, not a good sign when there’s rain and snow in the forecast.

D) Two teams meeting three times for the AFC Championship in 11 years might sound impressive. But two other pairs of teams met three times in even closer proximity: the Broncos and Browns played in the AFCC Game thrice in four years (1986, 87, & 89), and the Steelers and Raiders played in three consecutive AFCC Games (1974-76)!

7. Prediction

The Patriots running game won’t dominate like it did the last two games. With Arthur Jones back for this game, there’s pretty much no chance for another 200+ yard rushing performance. Though the Patriots will run more than last week, without a doubt -- if only because 14 yards is pathetic.

And weather notwithstanding, those eleven warm-weather/dome teams lost by an aggregate score of 278-138, an average of 25-12.5 per game. And the Colts themselves have lost three playoff games in Foxboro, by an average of 29-13.

History like that doesn’t foretell the future, but it should not be ignored. The Patriots won’t roll like they did in November. But they should get the W.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 13-4! & 1-0!

PPS. Trivia answer: the Houston Oilers beat the Patriots 31-14 in Foxboro on December 31, 1978.