Patriots Demolish Chargers 45-0

The Patriots destroyed the LA Chargers yesterday 45-0, their biggest road win since 2007. (Trivia question: Can you name the team they beat and/or the score of the game? Answer below.) The win brings them to 6-6, still 2.5 games back of the division leading Bills (who play tomorrow night) and 2 games out of the playoffs. Next up is the other Los Angeles team, the Rams, on a short week this Thursday.

This game was a clinic of complimentary football. Special teams made four huge plays, scoring twice, the offense used an innovative running game to keep the ball in their hands, and the defense smothered rookie Justin Herbert, intercepting him twice -- his first NFL two-INT game. And all along the coaching was ahead of the Chargers' staff, pouncing on mistakes and letting LA shoot itself in the foot time after time after time.

There isn't as much to pore over in a win this lopsided. But here are five quick observations:

1. Redemption For McDaniels

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has taken some heat this year, and rightfully so. But his game plan was outstanding on Sunday. He used a mix of slant-runs, quick-hit runs, QB option plays, and even some Wildcat (with quarterback Cam Newton in motion) to confuse and wear out the Chargers defense. However, most important was that those plays were productive.

The first drive was over 7:00 long and ended with points. And no matter how many players LA committed to stop the run, they couldn't do it effectively enough to force the Pats to abandon their game plan. 43 carries for 165 yards and 2 TDs on the ground speaks for itself.

Nicely done, Josh.

2. Spectacular Special Teams

Gunner Olszewski returned a punt 70 yards for a touchdown and another one 61 yards (which led to a field goal). Cody Davis blocked a field goal and Devin McCourty returned it 44 yards for a touchdown. Punter Jake Bailey kicked four times, three of which were downed inside the 20 yard-line. Justin Bethel had three tackles on special teams and saved a punt from the end zone (which was downed at the 5 yard-line by Davis).

Additionally, the kicking units drew penalties against the Chargers, including a 12-man penalty on a quick-snap that got the Pats a first down. This wasn't by accident; LA is known to have bad special teams. No doubt the Patriots spent extra time on them this week, knowing they could spell the difference in the game.

They did.

3. Bill Belichick Versus Young QBs

Most young quarterbacks are confused the first time they play a Belichick-led defense. I haven't updated this stat in a while, but he has something like 90% wins against quarterbacks in their 8th - 15th starts in the NFL, which is right where the Chargers' Justin Herbert was. It also explains how the Patriots held back Kyler Murray and Arizona last week -- he was making his 27th NFL start and facing a BB defense for the first time.

This won't help much this Thursday; Jared Goff is in his fifth season and has played the Patriots before.

All of which is to say please don't overreact to the last two weeks. Those wins were predictable; the real season begins now!

4. Youth Being Served

Rookies making an impact:

• Linebacker Josh Uche has a motor that won't stop and hits hard
• Safety Kyle Dugger has 29 tackles on the year and is seeing increased playing time
• Tackle Mike Onwenu is solidly a starter and well-rated by Pro Football Focus

Second-year players making an impact:

• Running back Damien Harris is the team's leading rusher with 641 yards on 126 carries (5.1ypc) and 2 touchdowns
• Receiver Jakobi Meyers leads the team with 38 catches and is a solid route-runner and blocker downfield
• Defensive End Chase Winovich gets better every week and made two impact plays yesterday
• Receiver/returner Olszewski not only had three great returns in the last two games, he had a long touchdown catch-and-run
• Fullback Jakob Johnson's blocking is excellent and he is now working into the occasional short-passing game
• Linebacker Terez Hall is helping shore up the thin linebacking corps

For a team with so many holes, they are filling many of them with younger players this year. If 2020 is a bridge year, then the future across that bridge looks bright -- if they can get the QB situation settled.

5. Blueprint For The Playoffs?!?!

I know, Jim Mora would have torn my head off for saying the P-word. But if the Pats do somehow make the playoffs, they will likely face a gauntlet of road games against teams like Kansas City and/or Pittsburgh.

The advantage they have is that crowd noise won't be as big a factor with smaller crowds (or no crowds) at stadiums because of COVID-19. Also, teams that play sound fundamentals, are good on defense, and can get a few plays on special teams -- those teams often do well on the road, even in the playoffs.

Earlier this year the Patriots likely would have beaten Kansas City in KC if their quarterback hadn't contracted the coronavirus. And the Steelers in Pittsburgh has never scared the Patriots; they've won two Super Bowls after beating the Steelers on the road in the playoffs.

They'll likely need more from the passing game if they expect to even make the playoffs. And they have the next six games to figure that out. One note of optimism; supposedly Julian Edelman could be back in a week or two, which could only help the offense.

Where does that leave us? The needle is pointing up at the right time. Newton has shown a good rapport with both Damiere Byrd and Meyers, as well as James White out of the backfield. McDaniels' challenge now is figuring out how to incorporate more passing without risking the run game or a loss (the Patriots can't afford one).

Biggest on-going concern: Lack of explosive plays on offense. The creative game plan from Sunday shows they can win without chunk plays in the passing game. But as they head down the stretch their margin for error is as small as their biggest plays.

It's great to get huge returns or blocked kicks for touchdowns. That doesn't mean the Patriots want to count on that every week.

Non-QB MVP: the toughest call of the year, but the award goes to special teams ace Justin Bethel, who was integral to the blocked field goal, had big blocks on both of Olszewski's long returns, had three special teams tackles, and made a play to down a punt inside the five yard-line.

Could have been a lot of people (Olszewski himself, for example), but Bethel gets the nod.

Statistical oddity: I've never seen a team be so horrific on fourth down in my life. Here is the astonishing futility of LA on fourth downs:

• Missed field goal
• Punt returned for touchdown
• False start penalty from punt formation
• Blocked field goal returned for touchdown
• Interception
• 61-yard punt return
• Sacked for 9 yards
• Incomplete pass
• Incomplete pass

Add in that they had 12 men on the field on a Patriots fourth-down punt, which gave the Pats a first down, and their failures on fourth down become legendary. Just awful!

Water-cooler wisdom: "Belichick is so awful at talent evaluation that he has nine major contributors from the last two drafts."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-6!

PPS. Trivia Answer: the Patriots beat the Bills 56-10 in November of 2007, a 46-point win that eclipses the 45-pointer from yesterday.

Patriots Outlast Ravens 23-17

For the second straight week the Patriots came from behind to post a close win, topping the Jets (30-27) last week and the Ravens last night (23-17). The win "catapults" New England to a 4-5 record, 2.5 games behind the Bills (who lost) and 2 games behind the Dolphins (who won) in the AFC East. Next up is a trip to Houston to take on the 2-7 Texans -- a team they rarely lose to.

A few weeks back I compared this year's Pats to those of the early 1990s. And that wasn't a compliment. They were playing poor situational offense and defense, committing way too may turnovers, costing themselves with untimely penalties, and didn't seem to be improving as the year went on.

Well, the last two weeks they remind me more of the 2001 Patriots. (No, I'm not saying what you think I'm saying -- please slow your roll!) They were down 27-17 late in the Jets game but scored 13 unanswered points in the last 6:04 to eke out the win. And last night they ran the ball, minimized mistakes (second straight game with no turnovers), and waited for the other team to wilt under the pressure.

And that's exactly what the Ravens did. They had three 15-yard penalties, two bad snaps that cost them scoring chances, a number of dropped passes, and they took way too long to adjust to the Pats offensive game plan -- which is a coaching choke, IMO.

The other coaching choke on the Ravens' sideline was calling so many pass plays in such bad conditions. The Ravens threw the ball 34 times, while the Patriots threw just 18 passes. Hell, the Ravens completed more passes (24) than the Pats attempted -- but in the sloppy conditions it made more sense to attack with their running game and keep possession of the ball.

In fact, the Patriots running attack was their most potent weapon. Damien Harris ran 22 times for a career-high 121 yards, and he ran under control and repeatedly finishsed by delivering punishment to defenders. Rex Burkhead had some key carries, and the team ended up with 39 carries for 173 yards (4.4 ypc).

QB Cam Newton was kept mostly clean (1 sack, 3 QB hits), he got two critical first downs on QB sneaks, and was effective in the passing game, completing 76% of his passes (13 of 17), with 1 touchdown, importantly no interceptions, and a 114.3 QB rating. He seems to grasp the offense better each week and he'll need to continue to minimize turnovers because this team doesn't have the margin for error they had in the past.

Newton was not the highest rated passer, however. That honor goes to receiver Jakobi Meyers, who completed his one pass for a 24-yard touchdown for a 158.3 QB rating. Meyers is also the only Pats WR who caught a pass or was even targeted in the game. The rest of the completions were to running backs and one for tight end Ryan Izzo.

The offensive line deserves a shout-out, not just for this game but for being the team's most consistent unit to this point in the season. They showed power in the running attack, pushed linemen to the second level on multiple plays, and did a good job in pass protection when needed. Rookie Michael Onwenu has trouble with outside pass rushers. But other than that, he and everyone else on the line has been great so far this year.

And special shout-out to David Andrews, who handled his center duties much better than his opposite number on the Ravens. Not one bad snap all night, as opposed to multiple bad snaps by the Baltimore center.

The defense fluctuates between shutdown and barely hanging on. I guess that makes it exciting, but I'm not sure I want that much excitement. Something clicked in the fourth quarter of the Jets game. They have given up just 16 points in their last five quarters, their best such stretch since the opening five quarters of the year.

Last week corner J.C. Jackson looked awful against the Jets, though he came up with a timely interception during the fourth-quarter rally. But yesterday he looked great, with coverage tight enough that he was rarely thrown at -- and when he was, he had one pass defended and another INT. Devin McCourty bounced back from a poor showing at NY to post one of his better games of the year.

The secondary has held it together without star corner Stephon Gilmore, going 2-1 in his absence. But I'm sure everyone on D would like to have him back. One note on rookie safety Kyle Dugger: he led the team in tackles with 12, two ahead of another rookie, Terez Hall.

Linebacker Chase Winovich looks like a new man after returning from a semi-benching. He's attacking the quarterback on passing plays and holding up pretty well against the outside run. I like what I see from rookie Josh Uche, and second-year man Hall improved his play from last week. It's important to have more talent at linebacker. The team started the season in a 5-1-5 because the only linebacker they trusted was Ja'Whaun Bentley (and frankly he hasn't played well this year).

The D-line and linebackers (and whatever secondary players were up near the line) did a great job with spacing and making sure tackles last night. It was imperative to minimize big plays, which are what feed the Ravens offense. Making them take 10+ plays in a drive gives them that many more chances to make mistakes, which they did last night (see above).

Forcing Baltimore to work down the field slowly meant they only had three scoring drives in the game. Commentators will often say it's important to keep star QBs on the sideline. But Belichick knows eventually they get their turn -- his job is to make their life as hard as possible.

Both teams have very good special teams; the only big difference in the game was the missed extra point by the Pats kicker, Nick Folk. He's lucky it didn't come back to bite him. And even though the conditions were difficult, he has to be able to convert extra points.

The coaching staff came in with a great game plan. Neutralize the Ravens' blitz packages and secondary play by running and staying out of second- and third-and-long downs. It took Baltimore three quarters before they started to run-blitz, and by then the home team had a 10-point lead.

Where does that leave us? If the Patriots take care of business in Houston, they will be no worse than two games out of the division lead (Buffalo has a bye week, Miami could tie Buffalo with a win). Buffalo is likely to revert to form down the stretch, I'm more worried about the Dolphins because head man Brian Flores is a great coach!

Biggest on-going issue: It has to be the lack of explosiveness at wide receiver. Although that is unlikely to be fixed this year; not many great receivers out there to be signed. The lack of explosion and weapons showed last night; only Meyers was even targeted out of the wide receiver group.

Non-QB MVP: It's Harris just barely over Dugger. Good to be getting contributions from young players!

Statistical oddity: Despite having won two fewer games, the Patriots are actually closer to the division lead (2.5 games back of the Bills) than the Ravens (3 games back of the Steelers). Tough playing in a division with an undefeated team.

Water-cooler wisdom: "Didn't the Pats win a Super Bowl two years ago with ground-and-pound?" #JustSayin

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-5!

What the NFL Should Do About COVID-19

You've undoubtedly read about the on-going COVID-19 outbreak it the Tennessee Titans' organization. And of course, you know about the isolated positive tests around the league.

There are a lot of ideas about how to handle this situation. Here is my take on the steps needed to contain and get past the current outbreak and any future ones.

Step 1: Close down for two weeks, starting right now

If the NFL doesn't close things down, they risk even more players and coaches being exposed to the coronavirus. And health concerns aside, if the Titans' outbreak becomes a league-wide outbreak, they risk losing a month or more.

Shutting down and quarantining for two weeks means that teams will simply miss their weeks 5 and 6 schedules. And those game can be made up by postponing the playoffs and playing the games in early January.

No one will give the league any crap if they play the Super Bowl in mid-February or even early March. Everyone involved -- players, coaches, fans, television networks, fantasy football sites, Vegas -- they all want football. And shutting down for two weeks now makes it more likely they will get football. 

Step 2: Give players, coaches, officials, and fans another chance to opt-out

Given the known climate and current conditions, people should be given another opportunity to protect their own health and the health of their families and communities. People's own health situations might have changed, or they might have more misgivings about playing under current conditions.

The COVID-19 status in some states has gotten better and in some states it's gotten worse. Giving everyone involved another chance to skip the rest of the season is fair and would show the NFL really does care about player health and safety.

Step 3: Implement new health and safety protocols

The NFL now knows how and why the Titans outbreak got worse. Titans' players engaged in extra-team practices and events, which worsened the outbreak for them (they continue to have new positive tests). So make new rules that can avoid those risks.

Given the incubation period, any positive test should result in immediate lockdown/quarantine of the entire team. Contact tracing should mean that anyone who spent more than a minute within six feet the infected player or coach should not play in any games until after the maximum incubation period and continuous negative test results.

Even in the modern game, rosters have sometimes been limited to as few as 33 active players per team per game. So if a team has 10 players sidelined for a week, so be it. Every team is under the same rules, so live with the results and move on.

Step 4: Increase penalties for those who violate protocols in step 3

Football players and coaches are always trying to get an edge. And the NFL can't allow those risk-takers to put the entire sport in jeopardy. The franchises and the sport are always worth more than any single game or even a single season. The NFL needs to make coaches and players understand that.

Everyone involved needs to know that violations of the rules will be punished through fines, suspensions, loss of future draft picks, and even forfeited games. No exceptions.

Coaches and players are short-term thinkers by nature. They know that preparation and winning the next game is crucial to their futures. So they need to be reminded that they will have no future if they put the sport at risk.

Step 5: Repeat steps 1-4 if another team has an outbreak similar to Tennessee's

Again, no one will care if the league has to push back the playoffs to make up regular-season games in January/February. Just move the playoffs to February/March and play the Super Bowl in March/April.

Every positive COVID-19 test is a risk. Any outbreaks that cross team lines should result in closing down for two weeks to figure out how best to keep things safe.

Summary

Just my two-cents worth. But I will say that the NFL ignores the widening outbreak at their own peril. No sport is immune. Hell, the U.S. Government can't even guarantee there won't be an outbreak in the White House!

Do the right thing, Roger Goodell. For once, finally do the right thing.

- Scott

Patriots Meltdown in KC, Lose 26-10

This is what "Patriots Football" meant before Bill Belichick arrived. The Patriots missed multiple opportunities against the Chiefs and came away 26-10 losers in a game that should have been much closer and probably could have been a win. The loss put them two full games back in the AFC East, the first time that's happened since week 7 of 2002. (Trivia question: name the team that led the division that week; answer below.) Next week the hapless Broncos come to town to face the suddenly hapless Patriots.

This has to be the most frustrating Patriots game since the loss to Philly in the Super Bowl. You remember, when Malcolm Butler stood on the sideline, only occasionally grabbing a fire extinguisher to put out yet another burned Patriots defensive back.

New England had multiple golden opportunities to stop KC, score more points, or turn momentum in their favor. They missed at least six such opportunities -- here they are.

Three missed opportunities on defense:

1. Devin McCourty dropped an easy INT on the first drive of the game. That would have likely disheartened the Chiefs a bit, but at the very least would have taken three KC points off the board.

2. Late in the game, J.C. Jackson missed an equally easy INT, a play that would have given the Patriots the ball, trailing by three points with plenty of time to score. After the mistake, the Chiefs scored a TD and made the game much tougher to win.

3. Earlier in the game, Chase Winovich strip-sacked Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, and the ball popped right into LB Shilique Calhoun's hands. But the referee's incorrectly ruled Mahomes down because he was "in the grasp" -- a ruling that was seen as incorrect by the CBS broadcast refereeing expert.

(Note: the play was not reviewable because "in the grasp" is a judgment call by the official and thus not subject to review.)

Three missed opportunities on offense:

1. As the first half drew to a close, the Patriots had the ball in easy field goal position, with the clock running and no timeouts. QB Brian Hoyer dropped back for one last pass attempt, but instead of throwing the ball away (to stop the clock), he took a sack -- apparently thinking he had one more timeout. This boneheaded play cost the Patriots three easy points.

2. Early in the second half, the Patriots again in easy field goal position, Hoyer stepped up in the pocket to avoid a sack and then somehow forgot about the guy who just rushed past him -- as he let the guy get back into the play for a strip-sack. KC recovered the fumble and the Patriots missed out on three more points.

3. Jarrett Stidham replaced Hoyer, and his quick-out went right through Julian Edelman's hands and was picked by KC and returned for a touchdown.

By my count, without those mistakes, the Patriots could have outscored the Chiefs 22-19. No way to know how the game would have turned had the Patriots made a few of those plays. But without them, it was only going to end badly.

Just for fun, here are three pieces of good news from the game:

1. We are probably done with the Brian Hoyer "era" for now. He overthrew almost every pass in the first half, had the two big situational gaffes, and can't do jack with his legs to help the team. For now it'll be Stidham, who threw a crisper ball and is at least a threat to run.

2. The running game is still very good: 185 yards and 5.3 ypc.

3. The defense continues to play excellent situational football. They are taking the ball away like they did last year. And their third-down play has been outstanding.

Note: the defense might be the most interesting part of the team, even with the improved rushing attack and Cam Newton at the helm. They seem to be calling the game differently; playing zone between the 20s and man-to-man closer to either goal line.

It's almost as if Belichick concedes teams will get yards between the 20s but that he will either turn them over or make them kick field goals when they get close to the end zone. It worked to perfection for almost three quarters last night. And without all the mistakes, the Pats could have had a large lead by that point.

Where does that leave us? In unfamiliar territory: 2-2 and looking up a the Bills. With Denver in town next week, a bye after that, and the injury-plagued 49ers after that, they have time to right the ship. Then it's off to Buffalo for a showdown with the Bills.

Biggest concern: The health and recovery of Cam Newton. With him the Pats are a threat to go deep into the playoffs. Without him, 10-6 is the ceiling, and that might not even get them to the post-season.

Non-QB MVP: Damien Harris led the team with 100 yards and ripped off a 41-yarder in a drive that led to their only touchdown.

Statistical oddity: In four games against the Patriots, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes averaged just 8.75 points in the first halves but 21.25 points in the second halves.

Water-cooler wisdom: "Steve Belichick is the outside linebackers coach? But the Patriots don't *use* any outside linebackers!'

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-2!

PS. Trivia answer: the Miami Dolphins led the AFC East with a 7-3 record in week 7 of the 2002 season. The Patriots were two games behind at 5-5 -- and they ended up missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker to the Jets.

Patriots Dispatch Raiders 36-20

The Pats took care of business, beating the visiting Raiders 36-10 at Gillette Stadium. The win kept them one game behind the 3-0 Bills in the division. Next up is a trip to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

If you'd never seen the Patriots under Bill Belichick, this was a clinic in how they won so much through the years. They didn't make critical mistakes, always took advantages of their opportunities, and waited for the other team to crumble under the pressure.

Las Vegas ran for 126 yards (5.7/carry) and their QB threw 2 TDs and 0 INTs for a rating of 119.4. Those stats might make you think they had a big day and won the game. But they lost three fumbles (including two by the QB), had too many penalties (6 total for 44 yards), and had three big special teams mistakes, including a killer missed field goal that would have tied the game in the second half.

On offense, it took a while for the Patriots to dump the run-pass-option plays, which were mostly stuffed early on. Once they started pitching to the outside and then doing quick-hitting inside runs, they took control of the clock and the game.

Rex Burkhead was the star of the game, running for 49 yards and 2 touchdowns and led the team with 7 catches for another 49 yards and 1 TD. Last week he was mediocre in the "James White" role, but with a week to prepare, he handled it a lot better.

The other running backs were no slouches, either. Sony Michel got 117 yards on just 9 carries (13 yards/carry) -- and he was very good on blitz-pickup. And rookie J.J. Taylor had 43 of his own on 11 carries. New England ran for 250 yards total, their second 200+ yard performance in three games.

Cam Newton was good, getting the Patriots into the right play repeatedly, although he did have a terrible interception. He was 17 of 28 for 162 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT (rating 73.8). Those are Tom Brady numbers... circa 2001, his first year as a Patriots starter.

Newton is developing nice chemistry with receivers N'Keal Harry and Damiere Byrd. But he does throw it downfield to covered receivers when there are receivers open for shorter gains. He threw into traffic twice and had that one really bad throw that was easily picked off.

The offensive line played great. The left tackle Isiah Wynn and fill-in left guard Mike Onwenu opened huge holes for the backs and most of the screen passes went that direction, too. The commentators pointed out that most of the snaps were under center (not shotgun), which probably owes Joe Thuney replacing the injured David Andrews at center.

The defense played well situationally, holding the Raiders to 3-of-9 conversions on third-down and forcing Las Vegas to settle for field goals early to keep the game close. The best example of that was after Newton's interception, when the Raiders got the ball at the Pats 14 yard line but had to settle for a field goal.

The secondary was up-and-down; sometimes with blanket coverage but giving up four passes of 20+ yards. The top three tacklers on the day were also from the secondary: Jonathan Jones (7), Adrian Phillips (7), and J.C. Jackson (6). And as a secondary, they knocked away 7 total passes and controlled one of the best receiving threats on the Raiders, Darren Waller

But Stephon Gilmore continues to struggle. It might be time to go back to last year's plan; man-up Gilmore on the opponents second best receiver and double-team their best receiver. Gilmore won the 2019 defensive player of the year, but he didn't take on the top receiver every week. The rules just don't allow a corner to shut down great receivers anymore; so it might be time to go back to the future in the secondary.

The defensive line held up well, especially doing a good job running sideline-to-sideline to cut off off-tackle runs. They sacked Derek Carr twice and recovered two fumbles -- one "returned" for a touchdown. Chase Winovich is playing great on the edge and Adam Butler is doing well stuffing the run inside.

The linebackers continue to be mostly invisible. Head coach Bill Belichick might have thought he could coach-up the young linebacking corps. But it's clear they simply lack the talent needed to cover the pass and are only serviceable against the run. Expect the Patriots to trade for at least one LB before the deadline.

Special teams were mostly very good. They kept the Raiders pinned back, only returned one kickoff they should have knelt on, and did a great job pushing Las Vegas on their last real possession -- when the defense sacked Carr in the end zone and recovered his fumble for a touchdown.

They did miss an extra point; but luckily it didn't come back to haunt them.

On the coaching front, offense coordinator Josh McDaniels excelled in his adjustments, coming up with a new plan when the initial one wasn't working. He called screen passes and outside runs to attack the Raiders both vertically and horizontally, and kept them off-balance the last three quarters of the game.

The only coaching hiccup was having to call three timeouts on defense in the second half. One was on the first play after they kicked off, and the last one was with 12:30 left in the game -- which meant they would not be able to challenge any really bad call on the field. No excuses; they need to do better and make sure the players know the personnel groupings so they don't make those mistakes.

Where does that leave us? 2-1 is good enough for now, and the game next week has they facing a Chiefs team that will be on a short week (just as the Raiders were this week). And after the next game, the "preseason" will be over and I'll write up my season preview :D

Biggest on-going problem: Line. Backer. See last week for details.

Non-QB MVP: Rex Burkhead went flying through the air and burrowing through small creases in the defense to be honored this week.

Statistical Oddity: As head coaches, Bill Belichick and Jon Gruden have only faced each other three times, and in those three games, Gruden's teams have scored fewer total points (33) than the Patriots scored yesterday (36). Probably goes without saying, Belichick is 3-0.

Water-cooler wisdom: "The Pats are building a strong team for the playoffs; tough defense and good running game."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-1!

Patriots 2019 Regular Season Awards

Sorry this is late, but the season ended abruptly, they missed the playoff Bye, and I had a vacation and the flu to slow me down the last week+.

But in any event, it's time to look back on the 2019 season and honor the most valuable, most improved, and best newcomers in each of the three phases of the game.

Here goes...

Offense

Most Valuable Offensive Player: Tom Brady
Honorable Mention: Julian Edelman

Brady wins this honor by default because no one else played very well this year. And despite all the media consternation about Brady's attitude and lack of off-season team-related prep, the simple fact is that without TB12, the Patriots would have probably gone 8-8 and missed the playoffs.

If you think of those close games they won: one-score victories over Buffalo (twice), the Eagles, and the Cowboys, it's pretty easy to see them dropping from 12-4 to 8-8 without Brady's over-60% completions and 3-to-1 TD-to-Interception ratio. I for one never take this for granted. For context, check with the folks in Tampa Bay or Cleveland.

Even in a down year, Edelman was the cog that made the Patriots offense run, when it ran, that is. He only started 13 games, but even not playing as much he totaled 100 catches for 1117 yards and 6 touchdowns. But perhaps most important were his 54 first downs -- keeping the chains moving and the team on the field.

Most Improved Offensive Player: Joe Thuney
Honorable Mention: Rex Burkhead

I'm going mostly on reputation and film nerds here. Thuney has started every game for the Patriots for four years: 64 out of 64, plus the playoffs. And Pro Football Focus had him rated the third-best guard in the entire NFL. He'll likely be gone in free agency, but this was a chance to honor him before he left.

Burkhead played in more games this year (13, versus 8 last year), improved his yards-per-carry (from 3.3 to 4.6), and had almost twice as many catches (27 versus 14). His durability was up, and so were his numbers. And I'd add that he was much more integral to the offense at points this year; whereas he was always an afterthought in the past.

Offensive Newcomer of the Year: Elandon Roberts
Honorable Mention: none

When blocking back James Develin went down for the year, it took a few weeks but the Patriots eventually replaced him with linebacker Elandon Roberts. Roberts mostly did a very good job blocking, and even had a touchdown reception (and a nice catch at that).

Defense

Most Valuable Defensive Player: Stephon Gilmore
Honorable Mention: Kyle Van Noy and Lawrence Guy

Gilmore is a defensive player of the year candidate for the entire NFL, so it stands to reason he'd win this for the team. His 20 passes defended and 6 interceptions led the team, he had two returns for touchdown, and his 44 tackles ranked fourth on the team.

Van Noy and Jamie Collins transformed the linebacking core into a real strength this year, but Collins couldn't sustain it for the entire year. Van Noy finished with 41 tackles, 6.5 sacks, and 3 fumble recoveries.

Of the defensive linemen, Guy was the most consistently impactful on the game. Sometimes it's hard to tease out which lineman played the best. But Guy's 35 tackles and 3 sacks are actually very good for a defensive lineman in the Patriots scheme.

Most Improved Defensive Player: Van Noy
Honorable Mention: Jason McCourty

Van Noy for all the reasons listed above.

McCourty because you saw what happened to the defense when he got injured late in the year. He was their second-best corner most of the season, and when he went down, the D started to give up more big plays and points. In the games he played over 10% of the snaps, the team gave up 10.8ppg. In the other six games, they gave up 19.5ppg.

Defensive Newcomer of the Year: Jamie Collins
Honorable Mention: Chase Winovich

Collins shot out of the gate like a rocket, dominating enough that *he* was the one in the conversation for defensive player of the year early on. In the first eight games, he had 6 sacks, 4 passes defended, 3 interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), and 2 forced fumbles. I wish he would consider coming back, but reports are he'll be one-and-done, taking the biggest free agent deal he gets on the open market this Spring.

Winovich's 17 tackles and 5.5 sacks, along with his never-quit motor, earned him a lot of respect on the team and around the league. By season's end, he was occasionally being double-teamed -- a sign that respect for him was growing around the league.

Special Teams

Most Valuable Special Teams Player: Jake Bailey
Honorable Mention: Matthew Slater 

The Patriots made a tough call when they cut long-time punter Ryan Allen, who was my MVP of Super Bowl LIII just a few months before being let go. It paid off handsomely. Rookie Jake Bailey placed second in the NFL in punts downed inside the 20 yard-line, and he was an actual weapon in the field-position game.

He also took over kickoff duties when Stephen Gostkowski went down with injury. And aside from three kick out of bounds, he was mostly flawless there. In a year when a touchback gave teams the ball at the 25 yard-line, Bailey gave up an average starting position of the 19.5 yard-line. He even booted a perfect onside kick in the KC game that could have given the Pats a shot at a win. (Unfortunately, it bounced off Brandon Bolden's hands and out of bounds.)

Slater's running mate Brandon King missed the entire season with a quad injury. And early in the year, Slater looked like he was trying too hard, and he made several mistakes because of it. But he got his bearings back and was just as dominant the second half of the season as he'd ever been.

Most Improved Special Teams Player: Joe Cardona
Honorable Mention: Coach Joe Judge

Long-snapper Cardona was picture-perfect this season. I don't remember a single bad snap, though I do recall several bad holds by Bailey. This was after Cardona was a liability during the Patriots 2017/18 playoff run. He had three bad snaps against Tennessee and messed one up in the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles.

I don't have notes on 2018 year, but my recollection is that he wasn't quite right in that season, either. However, nary a bad snap was seen this year, even though he had to work with a new punter and four different field goal kickers.

Usually this space is reserved for players. But Joe Judge was something very special this year, so I thought he merited inclusion. The Patriots blocked a franchise-record 4 punts, the most by any NFL team since 2014. He also had to integrate a new punter, teach that punter to kickoff, and go through four different field goal kickers.

His performance got him the gig as head coach of the Giants. Not a bad promotion from a guy I've called "overmatched" in previous years.

Special Teams Newcomer of the Year: Jake Bailey
Honorable Mention: Justin Bethel

Bailey for all the reason mentioned earlier.

Bethel was cut by the Ravens mid-season. The Patriots scooped him up off waivers and he was as good as Slater the rest of the year. The two were quite the dynamic duo, bringing back memories of how Slater and King would go back-and-forth for the team lead in special teams tackles.

Summary

That is about it. Next year's entry should be a dandy -- looks like an absolute ton of turnover this off-season. And maybe we'll have to retire the "Non-Brady MVP" award, depending on what TB12 decides to do.

Statistical Oddity: One week after he was cut by Baltimore, Bethel recovered a punt that was fumbled by those same Ravens in the Patriots loss to that team. The fumbling player... Cyrus Jones, who was drafted by the Patriots. It really is a small NFL world.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Wild Card Weekend Wild Stat

I know Belichick preaches that his defense stay back and make sure they don't get beaten on big passing plays. But when he coaches Wild Card weekend, he might want to change his tune.

Here are the total stats for the last two games he coached the first weekend of the playoffs:

Starting Quarterbacks (Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill):
12 of 25 for 106 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and a 39.75 QB rating

Starting Running Backs:
56 rushes for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns

I think the running backs did more damage than the quarterbacks on both occasions.

- Scott

Patriots Fall To Titans 20-13, Exit Playoffs

The Patriots lost for the second straight week at home with playoff implications on the line. The last time that happened under Bill Belichick was never. Last night the Tennessee Titans handed them a 20-13 loss, and it will be the Titans advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The loss knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs and leaves them with a lot of soul-searching this off-season.

The maddening thing about Pats playoff losses is that they are always close. When you get blown out, you can just write it off as "not your day." But when you lose by one score or less, every mistake, every unlucky bounce, every single play can be micro-analyzed for its impact on the point differential.

So of course, that's what I'm going to do. The Pats gave up a ton of rushing yards, the punting game was unimpressive, and the offense sputtered. But the loss came down to killer mistakes on a few plays, and I'll list the ones I thought were the most impactful here.

Killer Mistake #1: Josh McDaniels play-calling on short yardage

On first-and-goal from the Titans 1-yard-line, McDaniels called for a heavy formation with everyone in tight and called three straight runs without any misdirection. It's football 101 that you can't do that unless you have a dominant offensive line or the other team is weak on the D-line. A touchdown there would have put the Pats up by 10, and maybe Tennessee would have leaned more heavily on QB Ryan Tannehill -- which would have played right into the Pats hands. The field goal they got didn't do enough to change the Titans game plan.

This wasn't McDaniels' only bad call though. Nearly every time they brought in Elandon Roberts to block, it was a run that followed Roberts. By the third quarter, the Titans were flooding those gaps with safeties, which left them singled-up on receivers all over the field. Where was the play-action on those plays? How about sending Roberts left and running right?

McDaniels wasn't bad all day long. His screen-pass calls were well-timed and mostly successful. But on short yardage, here is how it went:

• Runs from running formation: 7 plays for minus-1 yards (0 first downs)
• Run from pass formation: 1 play for 14 yards (1 first down)
• Passes: 3-of-5 for 32 yards (3 first downs)

That "minus-1 yards" is not a misprint. Maybe McDaniels would like to have this game back.

Killer Mistake #2: Shaq Mason illegally downfield

Patriots first possession of the second half, they drove from their own 13 to the 37 yard-line. On third-and-10, Brady bought time in the pocket and found an uncovered Ben Watson for a 38-yard gain to the Titans 25. The Pats were moving the ball and in business, ready to score and take the lead.

Wait... flag on the play. Inexplicably, Shaq Mason wandered downfield instead of staying back to protect Brady. That five-yard penalty that cost the Patriots 43 yards and a first down. Next play was a screen that lost 4 yards and the Patriots punted.

I heard some analysis saying that Mason might have thought Brady was running or that he was trying to block his guy too aggressively. Bullshit. He had absolutely no business going downfield on a pass play unless he knew the quarterback was running. It's the second thing they teach you as an offensive lineman -- right after they show you how to get away with holding :D

This was a huge brain-cramp by Mason. By and large he had an excellent year. But in this critical moment, he cost the team points in a game they eventually were going to lose by a single point (the garbage-time pick-six notwithstanding).

Killer Mistake #3: Not scoring after the INT

On the first play of the fourth quarter, Tannehill was pressured and threw the most Ryan Tannehill of interceptions -- a big lob ball that was easily picked by safety Duron Harmon at the Patriots 41 yard-line. Still in a one-point game, all the Pats needed was about 30 yards to attempt a field goal for the lead.

Two plays later, the Patriots even got bailed out with a defensive holding, giving them a free five yards and a first down instead leaving them with third-and-10. And things looked promising when they gained four and then three yards on the next two plays.

But a short pass to Dorsett fell incomplete, leaving them to contemplate whether to punt on fourth down. Ultimately they tried the punt to pin the Titans deep, but Jake Bailey's kick sailed directly into the end zone for a touchback (net of 26 yards).

Not sure if I disagree with the punt. But I think the better scenario was to spread the field and run the ball on third down and gain a few yards, to give yourself either a first down or a chance on fourth down.

And not to pile on McDaniels, but that situation called for emptying the playbook. Whatever play you had in your back pocket, it was time to call it. The misdirection screen, a Jet Sweep, play-action QB draw, Statue of Liberty -- any play that gets you 10 more yards and a shot at a field goal. I know they have a section on the playsheet with high-confidence calls. All three of these downs should have come from that section. Period.

Killer Mistake #4: Julian Edelman's dropped pass

With 3:26 left in the game and the Patriots at their own 37 yard-line (why was it always the 37?), they faced a second-and-four. Brady took the snap and threw a perfect pass to Julian Edelman for an easy first down. But Edelman looked to run before he secure the ball and he dropped the pass.

Edelman has had more drops this year than in past years, and that is likely a result of all the wear and tear on his body through the years. But they really needed him to catch that one. A first down there and the Titans would have started to tighten up and the game would be moving in the Patriots favor.

But after Edelman's drop, a pass to Phillip Dorsett fell incomplete and the Patriots punted. It would be their last meaningful possession of the game, because of the next Killer Mistake...

Killer Mistake #5: Allowing Derrick Henry to run late

Henry ran wild all day, ending the game with 34 carries for 182 yards (5.4 average) and a touchdown. By and large, the Patriots seemed okay with that. And it worked for most of the game; the Patriots only gave up 14 points and were in position where a single score would win them the game.

But after their final punt was downed at the Tennessee 13, it was time to bring up a safety and/or corner to make sure Henry didn't get a first down. With 3:10 on the clock and the Pats holding 3 timeouts, if they stoned the Titans on three straight downs, they would have gotten the ball back with 2:30 or so, plenty of time to drive for a winning field goal.

But Henry gained 2 yards, 5 yards, 11 yards and a first down, and then the Patriots loaded up the box to stop him. That came too late, as stopping them at that point only left the Pats with 15 seconds on the clock.

The smarter move would be to run-blitz the entire possession and if it was a pass have those players get to the QB. Their talented secondary should have been able to hold up for 1.5 seconds a play, and it also would have increased the chances of another Tannehill pick. Sitting back just allowed another 2:00 to vaporize.

One additional but not quite "Killer" mistake: the decision not to field the final punt

Please tell me that Belichick didn't sign-off to have no returner on the last punt of the game. Sure the game was pretty much over, but they tried this earlier in the season and the same thing happened. The ball bounced short and rolled deep into the Patriots end, and it took precious seconds off the clock.

Last night, the ball landed at the 25 yard-line with about 20 seconds left. By the time it was downed, it was at the 1 yard-line with 15 seconds left. Gaining 45 yards in 20 seconds is a lot more likely than gaining 69 yards in 15 seconds.

I'd like to think special teams coach Joe Judge made that decision. But I fear it's another mistake by Belichick in the "game operations" realm -- and he's had way too many of those this year compared to previous years.

Other General Problems:

1. Jake Bailey chose a bad day to have his worst performance of the year. He shanked one kick. But on four others he had two downed inside the 20 and two go into the end zone. His counterpart on the Titans, Brett Kern, had four downed inside the 20 and zero go into the end zone.

2. James White ran once for 14 yards and never again in the game. This despite the Patriots known pattern of running when Sony Michel was in the game and passing when White was in the game. Going against this tendency had worked recently, and it worked last night. It should have been used more.

3. Giving up 182 yards to Henry was unacceptable. He had 75 yards on six carries on one of the Titans' touchdown drives, for crying out loud! Make some adjustments, beat your blockers, and get this guy on the ground!

4. After Patrick Chung went out with an injury, backup safety Terrence Brooks was involved two significant plays. He gave up a touchdown and allowed a first-down on Tennessee's final possession. Blech :(

One Last Point

I've heard some in the media blame the defense for the loss. They claim that their inability to stop Henry was more problematic than the offensive futility.

Puh-lease with that crap. If your defense gives up 14 points in a home playoff game, you should win. Hell, the Buffalo Bills with their extremely limited quarterback, even they scored 19 on the road yesterday.

The loss is squarely on the offense. If BB, TB12, and JE11 come back next year, they'll have to fix that side of the ball.

Where does that leave us? Pondering a longer off-season, perhaps enjoying some playoff football where we don't have a dog in the race, and wondering when we'll find out if TB12 is about to bolt -- maybe even to the Bolts. Enjoy the time off, it's not often you get to relax in January :D

Statistical Oddity: The last two times New England played on Wild Card weekend, Ray Rice ran for 159 yards and Derrick Henry ran for 182 yards. In between those contests, the Patriots played 22 playoff games and allowed just two other 100-yard rushers (Trivia question: can you name either, or both, of the other 100-yard rushers in those games? Hint: the Patriots won both games. Answer below.)

Water-cooler wisdom: "Playoff losses are always so abrupt, but Tennessee was the better team on Saturday."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-5 & 0-1... :(

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The Ravens' Justin Forsett ran for 129 yards in the AFC Championship Game in January of 2015, and the Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch ran for 102 in the next game, Super Bowl XLIX. Interestingly, both games ended with late interceptions to seal the victories.

Patriots vs. Titans Playoff Preview

So it's just a few days until the Patriots take on the Tennessee Titans at Gillette Stadium. The game feels like a bit of a tossup, with the Pats favored by just 4.5 points at home (which makes them a 1.5-point fave on a neutral field). However, fivethirtyeight.com gives the Patriots a 69% chance of coming out with a win.

I'd usually look at the last game the teams played and try to determine if enough had changed to alter the outcome. But even though they last suited up against each other just 14 months ago, so much has changed that that tilt (November 11, 2018) will have little bearing on how this game goes.

So here is my best attempt to put together how the teams will attack each other and which team has specific advantages in particular areas of play.

When The Titans Have The Ball

The Titans are pretty well-suited to attack the Patriots defense. Most teams that had success against the Pats either ran the ball well or threw shorter passes to tight ends and running backs. Teams with lots of deep-receiving talent have largely been shut down.

Tennessee's running game is stout, led by RB Derrick Henry's 1,540 yards on 303 carries (5.1 yards per carry), and his very impressive 16 rushing TDs. The next most productive back was old friend Dion Lewis, but his stats (54 for 209 yards and 0 TDs) pale in comparison to Henry.

The Titans are clearly a one-back team. The problem is that Henry doesn't often make people miss, he is more of a downhill/yards-after-contact type of runner. And the Patriots usually clog the middle and are very sure tacklers this year. If the game stays close and the Titans stay committed to the run, Henry versus the run defense could become an epic battle of wills.

In the passing game, the Titans have the speed burner, A.J. Brown, but he will likely be neutralized by the Pats talented secondary and/or scheming. The danger for the local-11 is when they throw to Lewis (25 catches for 164 yards) or tight ends Jonnu Smith (35 for 439) and Anthony Firkser (14 for 205).

(Note: injured tight end Delanie Walker is a big loss for Tennessee. But unknown tight ends have had career days going against Kyle Van Noy and Dont'a Hightower. So don't assume Walker's absence will make the tight ends ineffective.)

Despite improvements in the secondary and disciplined play along the line, the Patriots linebackers are still vulnerable when attacked through the air. Brown might be the show-stopper, but the tight ends and backs will have to keep the chains moving if the Titans expect to win.

When The Patriots Have The Ball

This matchup isn't half-bad for the Patriots. Tennessee plays nickel as their base defense and usually brings one linebacker to rush four at the passer. Behind the line, they play a vanilla zone, which is a defense that Pats QB Tom Brady has traditionally destroyed.

The Titans are near the bottom of the league when it comes to pressuring the passer. They blitz just 24.8% of the time (21st in the league) and get pressure just 21.2% of the time (25th). The odd thing is that in 2018, they blitzed the 9th-most, which seems to indicate they've become more conservative on defense. They will occasionally throw in a corner blitz; old friend cornerback Logan Ryan is fourth on the team with 4.5 sacks this season.

This style of play has not helped the secondary. Ryan allowed 66% completions on the passes thrown his way and gave up 5 touchdowns. And star Safety Kevin Byard dropped off from last year, too, allowing 57% completions and 3 touchdowns (versus 50% and 1 TD last year). Additionally, both have been targeted more, with Ryan's targets increasing an astonishing 61% (from 64 last year to 103 this year!).

Brady should have plenty of time to read the defense and choose the right receiver. In fact, with Tennessee's lack of pressure, he could have enough time to let receivers get open before throwing it -- something he hasn't always had in the past when he would throw to a spot and trust the receiver to be there.

The New England receiving corps isn't as great this year as it has been in the past. But this opponent seems tailor-made for Julian Edelman and James White to attack short and Phillip Dorsett and N'Keal Harry to attack deep.

Tennessee should be stouter against the run. They gave up just 4.0 yards per carry this year (ranking them 7th), and the Patriots gained just 3.8 yards per carry (ranking them 25th).

Expect the Patriots to soften up the defense with short throws, and then use the running game effectively. Don't expect them to lineup and run it down the Titans throats, it won't be happening.

Special Teams

As great as Patriots rookie Jake Bailey has kicked, Titans punter Brett Kern was even better this year. So no great advantage there.

And believe it or not, as we enter the playoffs the Patriots field goal game is in much steadier hands! Nick Folk successfully made 14 of 17 field goals (84%) and 12 of 12 extra points (I'll let you do the math on that). The Titans current kicker, Greg Joseph, hasn't attempted a field goal this season. He's been with Tennessee two games and has only tried extra points (of which he has made them all).

Neither team has particularly dynamic returners in the punt or kickoff game. Though the Patriots kick coverage teams are annually among the best in the NFL.

One place where the 2019 Patriots have excelled is in finding ways to block kicks. Special teams coach Joe Judge has done an amazing job identifying weak spots in opposing blocking schemes. And the Patriots have blocked four punts this year, returning two of them for touchdowns.

Coaching

The 2018 game was former player Mike Vrabel's chance to show his stuff to his former head coach, Bill Belichick. And that has happened quite a bit, where a new head coach that was formerly associated with Belichick will clip him the first time.

But now that Vrabel's team has played two full seasons in his system, no doubt Belichick knows how to attack it, both offensively and defensively. The question is whether he has the horses on either side of the ball.

Quick Hits

1. Though Lewis might seem like a threat in the passing game, he has averaged exactly one reception per game in the last seven contests in which he played. He has 25 grabs on the year, but most of them came early on.

2. For some reason the Titans kickoff short and force teams to return the ball. That's probably a smart strategy against the Patriots, because running back Brandon Bolden isn't exactly Cordarrelle Patterson back there.

3. Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has thrown 11 interceptions in 11 games against the Patriots. And some of those Pats teams fielded awful secondaries. He will need to be careful with the ball against this Pats team -- they have three players near the top of the NFL in interceptions.

Note: for all the consternation about the man Tannehill replaced, Marcus Mariota, Mariota has a lower interception rate (1.3%) than Tannehill (2.1%) this year.

4. No one would mistake Tannehill for Lamar Jackson, but the Patriots need to keep the Titans QB in the pocket. He's rushed 43 times for 185 yards (4.3ypc) and 4 touchdowns this year. And in a one-game elimination, all he'd need to do is make two or three plays with his feet to keep drives going.

Summary

If the Titans play their standard defense, the Pats should put up points. So the game will come down to how well the Patriots defense plays. Tannehill does better against zone-coverage, and the Patriots don't play much of that. So it would seem to lean in their favor.

However, Derrick Henry is the X-factor. If the Pats can't contain him with their front-seven, bringing extra players to stop him will make them vulnerable to the pass -- especially play-action passes. They'll need to read their keys and rally to the ball when it's a run. When it's a pass, they should be good enough to make Ryan Tannehill look like the player we all knew and loved-to-play when he was in Miami.

Statistical oddity that will likely never be repeated: The only two teams to use four field goal kickers this year meet in the playoffs -- that's right, your New England Patriots and the Tennessee Titans.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-4 & 0-0!

Dolphins Stun Patriots 27-24, No Playoff Bye

The Patriots got outfoxed by the Dolphins, losing the division home game 27-24. Meanwhile the Kansas City Chiefs won, dropping the Patriots to the #3 playoff seed. The loss was huge, meaning no playoff Bye week, no two-game road to the Super Bowl, likely two road wins to get to the big game at all, and just about no margin for error. Next week the Tennessee Titans come to town for a win-or-go-home tilt in Gillette Stadium.

There was plenty of good and bad from the Dolphins game. But the main questions are: how did this happen? and who is to blame for the loss? The unsatisfying answers are probably that it was the entire team. However, that won't stop me from delving deeper into exactly what went wrong and what it means going forward.

Non-Players

1. Brian Flores and Chad O'Shea

Credit where it is due. Miami head coach Brian Flores had his team ready to go, kept them in the game despite their season being long over, and never assumed he was overmatched against a team with 8 more wins than him. There was talk of tanking in South Florida this season. But I knew in my bones that Flores would never sign-on for that -- this game proved it.

When he left New England for Miami, I predicted that the next time Bill Belichick didn't win the AFC East, it would be Brian Flores atop the division. This game only validates my instinct that Flores is the real deal. And he will have a team that threatens the Patriots dominance within two years.

Also credit to Miami offensive coordinator Chad O'Shea. He emptied the playbook to make every possession count. He never panicked and didn't put his QB in a position to make the big mistakes he has historically made against the Patriots.

2. Bill Belichick

Unlike O'Shea, Belichick did not do everything to maximize his possessions. As the first half drew to a close, he could have used a timeout to give his team the ball with about 1:35 on the clock. Instead he kept the timeout and allowed the Dolphins to run down the clock. The result was the Patriots got the ball with less than a minute to go.

And even with that, Belichick seemed content to run out the clock. Granted this season the team does not have a quick-strike offense. But IMO he should have at least tried to get in position for a field goal. Those potential three points would have come in handy in a game they lost by exactly that many.

Additionally, the gadget plays seemed to catch the Patriots completely off-guard. But O'Shea coached for the Patriots for years, so they should have known something was coming. (Note: one one flea-flicker, they played it perfectly, and the receiver ran the ball instead of throwing it -- and of course he got 11 yards and a first down.)

BB gets adulation when he wins; today he gets blame for the loss.

3. Defensive play-calling

I don't study the "all-22" film, but I don't remember a game this season where the Patriots played as much zone as they against Miami. A very strange choice, given their dominant season playing largely man-coverage.

Maybe it was due to injuries in the secondary. Maybe the coaches expected Ryan Fitzpatrick to toss up a few jump-balls for interceptions. Maybe they just expected the Dolphins to pack it in.

Whatever the reason, the defensive play-calling was far too passive going against a team as offensively limited as Miami.

4. Offensive play-calling and execution

The Patriots ran fo 5.0 yards per carry and 135 yards. But unlike their previous two games, they did not stick with the run to wear down the other team and control the ball. It was especially problematic in the sequence leading to the Patriots lone turnover. They started the game with three runs and eight passes, the eight being intercepted and returned for a touchdown.

Later in the game they found some balance and scored on four of seven drives. But by then, the damage had been done and the Dolphins were convinced they could win.

5. Complacency

Years ago Bill Parcells warned of "trap games," where players had already begun thinking about their next opponent and overlooked the one right in front of them. If ever a game fit that description, it was this one.

Players

1. Tom Brady

His pick-six was a killer, and he just floated the ball out there on that play. He also over-threw Mohamed Sanu on a third-down play and missed several other open receivers.

2. Stephon Gilmore

A supposed candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, Gilmore got lit up by the Dolphins best receiver, DeVante Parker. Granted, some of it was because they were in zone- instead of man-coverage. But Gilmore got caught looking into the backfield on a long gainer up the sideline and lost his man over the middle another time.

You know a corner is having a bad day when he leads the team in tackles, especially when a bunch of them were his guy in coverage.

3. Mohamed Sanu

A play before Brady's interception, Sanu was wide open over the middle and Brady hit him right in the hands in-stride. If Sanu caught it, he would have gained 7+ yards on first down, and maybe the Patriots run the ball for the first down. But instead, it clanged off his hands and fell to the ground incomplete.

Without that drop, maybe Brady never throws the killer pick. Maybe...

4. Marcus Cannon

He chose a bad time to revert to three-years-ago form, but Cannon had his worst or second-worst game of the season, giving up pressure around the corner on too many plays. As a right tackle he doesn't face the best pass rusher, but on Sunday it looked like he was.

5. The rest of the secondary

Fitzpatrick's statlines from the first and second Pats games this year:

• 11 of 21 (52.4%) for 89 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, and a 23.8 QB rating
• 28 of 41 (68.3%) for 320 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, and a 99.6 QB rating

The entire secondary should be embarrassed about this.

Other thoughts

1. Why don't the Patriots use James White more? Two carries for four yards and just three passing targets in the game; all in the second half. If they are saving him for the playoffs, they blew it -- because no amount of rest makes up for missing out on the playoff Bye.

2. Usually former assistants of Belichick's clip him in their first game as head coaches against the Hoodie. This was Flores' second game, but either way, BB is just .500 (12-12) against head coaches who coached under him at some point.

3. Head man Bill Belichick might be spending too much time with the defense. Because his in-game mastery is showing some cracks this year.

He wasn't aggressive at the end of the first half of games against Dallas and Miami, screwed up his challenges against the Chiefs, and the team has had some uncharacteristic brain-cramps (multiple penalties on kickoffs, too many men on the field penalties, etc.).

4. On the plus side of things, the running game was effective again, N'Keal Harry continued to grow into the receiver role, and kicker Nick Folk was perfect yet again. I guess there is always a silver lining...

Where does that leave us? Having to play next weekend instead of getting a week off. Those injuries to Julian Edelman, Brady, Sanu, Jonthan Jones, and Jason McCourty will have to heal in the off-season. Because the playoffs are upon us, and it's all hands on deck.

Biggest on-going issue: Health in the secondary. If the secondary isn't great, the pass rush doesn't look as formidable, and the medium-zone throws against linebackers get a lot easier.

Please have the entire secondary in a huge ice-bath every day after practice. Pretty please... with sugar on top :D

Non-Brady MVP: Danny Shelton was a beast against the run (and the Pats allowed just 2.9 yards per carry) and had six tackles on the day.

Statistical Oddity: Miami head coach Brian Flores went 5-11 in his first year at the helm there. Note that Bill Belichick had the exact same record in his first season with the Patriots (the 2000 season). (Trivia question: Which team handed Belichick his last loss that season, and what was the final score of that game? Answer below.)

Water-cooler wisdom: "Keep telling the Patriots they've never gotten to the Super Bowl without a Bye -- it'll be on their bulletin board all week."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-4 & 0-0!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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Belichick lost the last game of the 2000 season to the Miami Dolphins. The score was identical to yesterday's loss: 27-24. I know, it's a little bit creepy, isn't it?