Patriots Dominate Dolphins, 41-13

The Patriots barely held serve in the first half and then ran away with the game in the last 30 minutes, topping the Dolphins easily, 41-13. The win gives the Patriots their sixth consecutive AFC East title, guaranteeing them a home playoff game (yay!), and kept them ahead of the pack for the #1 playoff seed in the AFC. Next up is the team's last regular season road game, in New York to take on the Jets -- which won't be as easy a game as people probably think.

Bill Belichick's crew got off to a very shaky start this week. Miami's first play from scrimmage was a 50-yard bomb to Mike Wallace. And the halftime stats would lead you to believe it was a Dolphins blowout from the start. They ran 40 plays to the Patriots 28, got over twice as many first downs (16 to 7), had twice the time of possession (20:00 to 10:00), nearly three-times the total yards (271 to 102), and were averaging 14.1 yards a completion.

However, the Patriots got big plays in each of the first three quarters to keep themselves in the driver's seat. And it just so happened that those big plays came from each unit, and they held the game in the balance until the Patriots took over in the last 25:00.

In the first quarter, special teams came to the rescue. Linebacker Jamie Collins hopped over a lineman and blocked a field goal, which was returned for a touchdown by cornerback Kyle Arrington. It was huge, because the Dolphins had driven right down the field, and to hold them to the FG attempt and then do the 10-point turnaround instead was a key early play.

In the second quarter, the Dolphins were on the move again, when the defense was heard from. Safety Duron Harmon intercepted a pass and returned it to the Miami eight yard-line. Three plays later, running back Shane Vereen sliced in for a touchdown, making it a 14-3 Patriots lead in a game the Dolphins had dominated statistically.

As the third quarter began, it was 14-13 Patriots, and it was the offense's turn to put their stamp on the game -- not with one play, but with three big ones. The first play of the second half: quarterback Tom Brady looked off the safety and threw a 34-yard dart to tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brady was almost sacked on the next play, but as he was being dragged down, he threw a short pass to running back Jonas Gray -- turning a potential second-and-14 into second-and-3. Five plays later it was third-and-eleven, and Brady scrambled for 17 yards, his longest run of the season. Next play, touchdown, a 21-13 lead, and the Patriots never looked back.

In the first half, the defense barely held it together, playing the bend-but-don't-break style that drives so many fans crazy. But it did keep them in the game by giving Miami fits once they reached the Patriots side of the field. Three field goal attempts and just one late touchdown (which was really more on the coaches, but more on that later), had to have been frustrating for the Dolphins.

Linebacker Dont'a Hightower was back after missing the Chargers game with a shoulder injury, and he was up to his old tricks, tearing up offenses from every angle. He had 8 tackles (1 for a loss), 1/2-sack (for 5.5 yards), two QB hits, and a forced fumble. He also made sure tackles to end drives and was only beaten once in pass coverage that I saw. Collins was all over the field, and it appears teams are starting to look for him and run plays the other direction. That's how much of a mismatch he has become.

Another injury returnee was lineman Chandler Jones, and he had a major impact right away. They deployed him inside instead of on the edge, and he responded with 1.5 sacks (for 21.5 yards), 7 tackles, 2 QB hits, a forced fumble, and he disrupted multiple plays in the backfield. Given the recent return of Sealver Siliga, who had a sack of his own yesterday, he and Jones provide a big boost, with fresh legs and attitude.

Oh... and stalwart Vince Wilfork has fully recovered from last year's achilles tendon injury, as evidenced by his busting through double-teams to make tackles yesterday. Rob Ninkovich still gets exploited in the passing game some, ever since Green Bay exposed the Pats scheme with running backs and the wheel routes. But he held up okay yesterday, and contributed a sack and three QB hits of his own. This will be a formidable group as the Patriots move into the playoffs.

The secondary was hot and cold. Two interceptions, six passes defended, and multiple safety tackles short of first downs was hot. Cold was five plays of 20+ yards, including the 50-yarder to start the game and a 32-yard touchdown with 11 seconds to play in the first half. There's no excuse for either, though the second is even less forgivable than the first. Malcolm Butler was victimized on the 50-yarder, and looks somewhat lost down-to-down. It's tough to call it a good day when Ninkovich and Wilfork have more passes defended that you.

Cornerback Darrelle Revis did is usual excellent job, shutting down the main Miami receiver to whom he was assigned. Brandon Browner had five tackles and some big hits, but almost gave Miami a free first down in the fourth quarter with a silly unnecessary roughness penalty (it was nullified when a Miami player taunted Browner). He had two other penalties, and it's unclear whether the attitude he brings offsets the 15-50 yards a game he gives up on penalties.

On offense, it was also a tale of two halves. The Pats first drive ended on an interception, and their only scoring drive of the first half was an eight-yarder after the Harmon interception. But in the second half, they went touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, end of game. I've often scolded offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels for poor halftime adjustments, but he did a great job yesterday, especially given how good the Miami defense is.

Brady went 21 of 35 (60%), 287 yards, 2 touchdowns, that one interception, zero sacks, and a 93.4 QB rating. But the zero sacks mask the problems in pass protection. Officially he was hit five times, though it seemed like he was under pressure a lot more than that. And his first half was nothing to write home about, three tipped balls and at least two others under thrown. He also overthrew receiver Brian Tyms on what could have been a long touchdown in the third quarter.

Once Brady turned it around, the offense got humming again, especially Gronkowski and receiver Julian Edelman. After a few weeks in a downward trend, Edelman has been on fire the last two weeks, following up his big game against the Chargers with 7 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown on Sunday. Among those catches were five first downs and two that left the team with third-and-one. And Gronk didn't have to bowl anyone over yesterday, instead he split the defense up the seam in the second half for all three of his catches (for 96 yards, a 32-yard average!).

The only concern with the passing game is it's becoming very Edelman/Gronkowski/LaFell-centric. That's what has hurt them the last few years in the playoffs; not having enough established weapons for the other team to worry about. Running back Shane Vereen is a threat of the backfield, but they team could really use more consistent help from Danny Amendola or Brian Tyms.

Speaking of the running backs, it didn't take LaGarrette Blount very long to develop some bad habits. In the first half he danced in the backfield too often, not running the play as designed. So he sat to start the second half, and old friend Jonas Gray got the call. He responded with 11 carries for 62 yards, and was effective running into the spot the play was designed for. One negative on the backs, there was a lot of pressure on Brady, and some of that was missed assignments or poor blocks by the backs.

The offensive line did not look great. Even when the offense turned things around after the half, there was still too much pressure on Brady, and the running plays looked good more because they added a sixth lineman and/or had Gronkowski blocking. It's bad news when your best blocking lineman is actually your tight end... food for thought, Josh McDaniels.

Special teams turned in yet another special play, with the Collins block and Arrington return for TD. It was the Patriots' second of the year, and came (appropriately enough) the week Chandler Jones was back on the field (he had the other blocked-FG return against the Vikings in week 2). Punter Ryan Allen also had a great game, with a 60-yard bomb and two punts that were downed inside the 20. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski wasn't up to his usual standard, though both his bad kickoffs were into the wind, so it's possible it was stronger than was reported.

The coaching wasn't great to start the game, and gangbusters after the break. The curious run-run-run play-calling to end the half allowed the Dolphins to get a last-second touchdown. And the team should have been better prepared for the blitz/man-press scheme Miami used -- they *always* use that to great effect, so the Patriots should have been ready for it.

But whatever they did to make halftime adjustments, they need to do more of that. After the game it was obvious that Belichick was unhappy with his team's performance. This game tape should give him plenty of humble pie to serve in the film room later today.

So where does that leave us? 11-3 has them running away with the division and tied for the best record in the NFL. But don't count your chickens yet. Their margin in the AFC is razor-thin, and the Jets could give the Patriots trouble this weekend. Remember: they almost beat the Pats in week 7 in Foxboro, and this game is in New York. And their head coach, Rex Ryan, absolutely hates the Patriots and would like nothing more than to beat them before he gets fired at season's end.

A defensive guru with an axe to grind and nothing to lose is a dangerous opponent. In fact, the Patriots should emphasize that Gronk and Edelman get down after catches, because it wouldn't surprise anyone to see the Jets going after players. That's how much bad blood there is in this rivalry. Also, after the seven-game gauntlet the Pats just worked through, it shouldn't surprise anyone to see a letdown against the lowly Jets. Here's hoping Belichick has enough ammo to keep his team on their toes for two more Sundays.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Dolphins shutout the Patriots in the second half of their week 1 encounter, and the Patriots returned the favor, pitching a shutout against Miami in the second half yesterday. (Trivia question: since Belichick became head coach, name the only division team that has *not* traded second-half shutouts with the Patriots in the same season.. answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Hats and t-shirts are nice, but a faster offensive start would go a lot further in the playoffs."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 11-3!

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Since 2000, the only AFC East team that has not traded second-half shutouts with the Patriots is the Indianapolis Colts. Oh... did you forget again about the Colts being in the Patriots division in the 2000 season? For shame, I reminded everyone earlier this season :P

(For the record, the Bills and Pats traded second-half shutouts in 2003, the Dolphins this year and in 2006, and the Jets in 2010.)

Patriots Defense Dominates in 30-7 Drubbing of Vikings

The Patriots defense gave up seven points to start the game and then pitched a shutout the rest of the way, leading the team to a 30-7 victory in Minnesota. The win puts them at 1-1, one game behind the division leading Bills. Up next week is their home opener, with the reeling Raiders in town, fresh off a 16-point beatdown by the Houston Texans.

The defense led the way in this one, starting on the defensive line with Chandler Jones. He was an absolute beast, tying for the team lead with 8 tackles, he had 2 sacks, 3 tackles for a loss, 3 QB hits, and a blocked field goal that he recovered and ran back for a touchdown. Never before has a coach's switch from the 3-4 to the 4-3 paid dividends so quickly. Jones was overmatched against interior offensive linemen last week, but destructive to the Vikings off the edge this week.

The rest of the defensive line was mostly nondescript for the first two drives. But once they got their bearings, Sealver Siliga and Vince Wilfork did a nice job clogging up the middle. On the outside, Rob Ninkovick was particularly effective, totaling 3 tackles (with 1 for a loss), and getting two QB hits and a sack. Also of note: first-round pick Dominique Easley got his first NFL interception with a nice grab on a tipped ball.

As with much of the defense, the linebackers got whipped badly for the first two drives. Rookie Deontae Skinner was brought in for the injured Jamie Collins, and Skinner was repeatedly out of position and got torched across the middle multiple times. And veterans Jerod Mayo and Dont'a Hightower didn't look much better at first. But after that, look out! Hightower made plays all over the field in the last 52 minutes, hits in the backfield, tackles for a loss, two sacks (for 22 yards), and a hard hit on the quarterback that caused an incompletion. And Mayo looked very good shutting down the run, knifing in to stop plays before they could get started.

Not much bad to say about a secondary where three of four starters had interceptions, and the nickelback forced a fumble. Safety Devin McCourty and corner Darrelle Revis each had a pass defended and an interception. Not to be outdone, corner Logan Ryan had two passes defended and an interception. McCourty uncharacteristically had no tackles, but that was mostly because the linebackers took down everything that came their way. And safety Patrick Chung played well in run support, while corner Kyle Arrington kept pounding people until someone gave up the ball.

The offense is still a work in progress, 30 points notwithstanding. Their scoring drives averaged 33 yards, they went 5-14 (36%) on third-down conversions, and had three three-and-outs (including one to start the game). The offensive line still has some issues, though they were better on Sunday. And Tom Brady's numbers look decent, but too many of those completions required perfect passes to well-covered receivers.

The quarterback's numbers look either pedestrian or efficient, depending on your viewpoint. Brady went 15 of 22, for 149 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions, and a QB rating of 102.3. Most impressive was how pinpoint his short passes were, sometimes going to completely covered receivers in the one spot where they could make a catch. He wasn't perfect: he missed a few long passes, and went for a 30-yard bomb from midfield on a third-and-two play -- once again leading to a Patriots punt. Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have to stop doing that.

The offensive line was much better this week, although still far from perfect. Brady's pockets were mostly clean, and he was sacked only once on the day (though he did take a few other shots). The announcers made mention that the Patriots went with six offensive linemen on many plays; however, they didn't always run from those formations, sending out fewer receivers and keeping the extra linemen in to protect the quarterback.

The O-line wasn't pushed back nearly as much by Minnesota as they were by Miami. Although the only lineman worthy of mention is Nate Solder, who pulled off the rare trifecta of having three penalties on two plays. Nicely done, Nate -- just know that we'll all be expecting much better things from you in the coming weeks.

The oft-mentioned "running back by committee" predictably turned into the Stevan Ridley show. Ridley is the Patriots most complete back, and he showed it against the Vikings with 25 tough rushes for 101 yards and a touchdown. He also blocked well in blitz pickup. Shane Vereen might be more explosive (6 carries for 40 yards), but Ridley gets all the yards you could expect on every play, and sometimes breaks through to get more.

The receivers shared the wealth; six players had catches on just 15 total receptions. As usual, mister reliable Julian Edleman led the way, with 6 grabs for 81 yards and a touchdown. Rob Gronkowski is clearly still working his way back, unable to get the same separation down the seam -- but he still had 4 catches for 32 yards and his run-blocking is almost back to form. Tim Wright was a disappointment; after a decent first game at Miami, he had no catches and was targeted only once. And poor Danny Amendola -- his only catch was wiped out on a penalty.

Special teams had two great moments and a bunch of solid ones. The Jones blocked field goal was a great play by him, and that touchdown almost put the game out of reach before the half. The other great play was by special teams captain Matthew Slater, who literally bent over backwards to knock a punt away from the end zone so it could be downed at the 4 yard-line. Additionally, Stephen Gostkowski's "through the end zone" kickoffs not only neutralized the excellent Vikings' return game, but he hit all three field goals, including 47- and 48-yarders.

The coaches mostly did a 180 this week. Both the offense and defense started slowly, but both coordinators made very good adjustments and the Patriots were dominant in both phases for most of the middle of the game. But the maddening lack of offense in the second half can't become a habit if the Patriots hope to do well this season. Two field goals in the last 30 minutes won't win most weeks, so they have to improve their offensive adjustments at halftime.

So where does that leave us? 1-1 and tied for second (or tied for last) in the AFC East. And playing Oakland next week is the closest the NFL has to a bye week without actually having a bye week. So by the time you get next week's update, the Patriots should be 2-1 and on their way.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots won Sunday 30-7, and they won their previous meeting in Minnesota 31-7 in 2006. At that rate, the Vikings will notch their next home win over the Patriots by a score of 7-6 -- 192 years from now, the 2206 season. Here's hoping I'm around to blog about it :)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I'm just glad the coaches realized what everyone else knew already: that Chandler Jones is Cameron Wake, if they'll just use him the same way."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-1!

Big Miami Second Half Steamrolls Patriots, 33-20

After a decent first half, the Patriots collapsed in the last 30 minutes and dropped their opener to Miami, 33-20. The loss puts them in last place in the division, all alone in the basement for the first time since 2000, when some guy named Bledsoe was the quarterback. (Trivia Question: name the order of finish in the AFC East that season... answer below.) Next up is a trip to Minnesota to play the Vikings, who scored an impressive 34-6 decision, albiet over the quarterbackless Rams.

This was the perfect example of a team loss. The first punt of the game was blocked by Miami, setting up a short field and a touchdown. The offense didn't do enough with three first half turnovers and got shutout in the second half. And the defense couldn't stop inside or outside runs, and looked two steps slow all day in the wilting heat. As for the coaching, where was the up-tempo offense when things bogged down in the second half?

You win as a team, you lose as a team. And sometimes you stink up the joint as a team.

Quarterback Tom Brady had a decent first half: 19 of 29, 187 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions, and a 95.0 QB rating. He only forced two passes that half, and even with his offensive line giving too much ground to make a decent pocket, Brady was calm and mostly hit the open receivers.

Unfortunately, the pressure reached Brady too often in the second half. He was sacked four times (two of which resulted in fumbles) and went a pathetic 10 for 27, 62 yards, and a QB rating of 45.4. It didn't help that his receivers weren't getting open, but the pressure was the real problem.

Based on the offensive line play, it was a mistake to say good-bye to both Dante Scarnecchia and Logan Mankins the same season. As stated above, Brady didn't have much of a clean pocket in the first half. But the second half was a complete trainwreck -- whiffed assignments, miscommunications, not blocking Miami's best pass rusher. The blocking was so bad on one play, it looked like they were setting up for a screen pass; but Brady took hits from three Dolphins' linemen when the jailbreak ran him over.

When the backs and tight ends tried to help; well, suffice it to say the Patriots first turnover came when Miami end Cameron Wake flew past tight end Michael Hoomanauanui *and* running back Stevan Ridley on the same play. Nate Solder looked okay, but Dan Connolly and especially Sebastian Vollmer were overmatched the entire game -- it just looked a lot worse in the second half.

Shane Vereen stood tall among the running backs, leading the team with 36 rushing yards, catching 5 passes for another 35 yards, and doing a great job picking up blitzers on pass plays. Ridley averaged only 2.6 yards a rush, but that was mostly on the O-line. Although with Vereen being more effective in pass protection, maybe they should have rotated him in more often.

As for the receivers, it was the Julian Edelman show with some bit players thrown in. Which isn't a bad thing, actually. Edelman led the team in receptions (6) and yards (95), and he tossed in 2 rushes for 21 yards. But Brady completed passes to seven other receivers, which is the kind of diversity you want to keep the opposition honest.

Kenbrell Tompkins is becoming a good possession receiver (5 catches for 37 yards), and Rob Gronkowski had 4 catches of his own (though with 11 targets, Brady fixated on him too much). However, Danny Amendola continues to frustrate with his ability to seem absolutely invisble (3 catches, 16 yards). If the Patriots wanted to clear room under the salary cap, they should have kept Mankins and cut Amendola instead.

As for the two receiver debuts, first up was tight end Tim Wright, who didn't seem bothered by the heat after training camp with Tampa Bay, and who caught three passes and didn't seem to make any route-running errors. But that leaves us with the bum of the game, the off-season's big free-agent receiver signing. After yesterday, they should nickname him Brandon LaFell Flat On His Face -- because here was his stat line: two penalties (including offside on a kickoff), two long passes where he couldn't get separation, six passes thrown his way, 0 catches. And to complete his cipherdom on the day, 0 tackles on special teams. Other than that he was terrific!

The lack of depth on the defensive line was exacerbated because Chris Jones and Michael Buchanan were out with injuries. This left them with just seven defensive lineman, and given the poor second-half performance, the heat clearly got to them. The Pats gave up just 65 rushing yards in the first half, but 126 in the second half. And it was a strange sight to see the Dolphins manhandle Vince Wilfork and Rob Ninkovich, who are usually so stout against the run.

Wilfork's play wasn't all bad, but his poor plays were magnified because the rest of the defense usually depends on him to be solid. Ninkovich seemed a step slow, being outrun by quick passes to his side, but he generally held the edge well against the run. Chandler Jones was Mister Hot-and-cold, notching four tackles and two roughing-the-passer penalties, while giving up the edge on runs to his side.

The rest of the line got pushed around most of the day, including rookie first-rounder Dominique Easley, who looked like a guy with zero snaps in the preseason -- out of position and trailing plays instead of making them. He might round into form, but he wasn't there yesterday.

Two of the linebackers had their moments, and one is looking more and more like a washout. Jerod Mayo led the team with 12 tackles, and he added a sack, a QB hit, and a fumble recovery. He did give up a few receptions, but even on those he was right there, just a step behind, so he continues to do pretty well there. And Jamie Collins had some nice pass coverage and got 8 tackles of his own.

But Dont'a Hightower seems too big to do anything in pass coverage, but not big enough to shed blockers and make tackles. He had 1 tackling assist yesterday, and the one time he could have made a big play, he got called for roughing the passer. Not the performance you want from a high draft pick in his third season. A change of position might help Hightower, perhaps with his size he could rotate with Ninkovich on the line -- it might suit his skills better.

I won't hammer the secondary; they played pretty well. Safety Devin McCourty was the star of that unit, making tackles near the line in run support while making sure no long passes got behind him. Duron Harmon started opposite McCourty, but he was a non-entity, and I'd prefer to see Patrick Chung back there instead. He at least makes plays and can mostly be counted on not to get beaten deep.

Cornerback Darrelle Revis got beaten on one crossing route, but other than that he was very solid. On the one touchdown he allowed, he hit the ball but it bounced directly into the receiver's gut -- so you can't even fault him much on that one. The rest of the corners rotated in and out so much it was tough to keep track. But overall, the longest passes of the day were in the 20-25 yard range, which is a pretty good day for a secondary.

Special teams had the flub of the day, when punter Ryan Allen had a punt blocked for the first time in his NFL career. Miami converted the short field to a touchdown, and that could have been a lot worse, except the Patriots scored the next 17 points to make that an afterthought. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski was his usual solid self; two field goals (45 and 47 yards) and the only kickoffs returns were when he was kicking into the wind.

The coaching was less than stellar. Not sure how you have the other team's best pass rusher coming free at the quarterback. And I wonder why the offensive plan wasn't adjusted when play after play everyone seemed to be covered. The misdirection runs worked well in the first half, maybe that would have helped get Miami guessing if you ran them again in the second half.

So where does that leave us? 0-1 and looking up at the division is a strange sensation. Old friend Matt Cassel is the quarterback there, and the Vikings were very impressive in trouncing a bad St. Louis team yesterday. The Patriots have to get their O-line issues worked out, but I think the rest of the team will be better in the more hospitable climate of the University of Minnesota's stadium (the Vikings' temporary home until the new stadium is up in 2016).

Bill Belichick once said that the most important game of the season is the second game. If you win the opener, you want to keep that going, but if you lose, you have to find a way to win that second game. Statistically your chances of making the playoffs go way down if you lose the first two. Let's see what he comes up with for this game, his first after a season-opening loss in some time.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Tom Brady had never lost two fumbles in an NFL game, until his 218th game yesterday.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Well, last time they lost the season opener, didn't they win the Super Bowl?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-1!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
Miami Dolphins 11-5
Indianapolis Colts 10-6
New York Jets 9-7
Buffalo Bills  8-8
New England Patriots 5-11

Oh... did you forget that the Colts used to be in this division? Tsk tsk tsk #MutomboFingerWag

Broncos Take Out Patriots, 26-16

The Broncos whupped up on the Patriots yesterday, dominating the lines of scrimmage en route to a 26-16 win that put Denver in the Super Bowl and sent the New England back to the drawing board. The game wasn't as close as the final score indicated, even though a missed two-point conversion could have made it a one-score game. The loss ended the Patriots season, and there will be much soul-searching after another poor offensive performance in the playoffs.

Denver got out to a 13-3 halftime lead, and the Patriots fought them to a draw in the second half (13-13). And they did a decent job making the Broncos settle for field goals (4) instead of touchdowns (2). So the defense did what it could; but by the second half it was too late to play catch-up.

I've heard people say the Patriots didn't commit enough to the run. And I completely disagree with that assessment -- in fact, they should have run the ball less! They ran only 33% of their first half snaps, but that number should have been even lower. In 2006 they played a Vikings team that was stout against the run, and they ran only 15% of their first half plays. That is the kind of run/pass ratio they should have had in the game yesterday.

Their first half runs went for 0, 1, 5, 0, 3, 2, 0, and 5 yards (last play of the half against a prevent defense). In the second half, they threw 75% of the time, which is closer to where they should have been all game long. But even me, a lowly blogger, even I knew they'd never run effectively against Denver, at least not out of standard running formations. And it was frustrating to see them bang their heads against that wall over and over.

The other problem was, when they threw, quarterback Tom Brady was not sharp. In the first half alone he missed two long throws to wide open receivers (Edelman and Collie). And at least two other times he went with long passes instead of taking sure first downs to keep the drive alive. His worst choice was a long pass to Matthew Slater, who has one catch in his NFL career, instead of taking the first down with a check-down over the middle.

Brady ended the day 24 of 38 (63%), 277 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, and a 93.9 QB rating -- numbers that look decent. But it mattered not, because he left points on the field with those miscues in the first half. And after Denver scored a touchdown to start the second half, it was all over but the shouting at 20-3 -- when it should have been 20-9, 20-13, or even 20-17.

The receivers were okay, Slater aside. Julian Edelman ended up with 10 catches for 89 yards and the lone touchdown. Austin Collie had only 4 catches (57 yards), but he converted several important first downs late, and was open down the sideline near the end of the first half, but Brady missed him. And tight end Michael Hoomanawanui had a very nice case for a first down, though he ended up with just 2 catches for 33 yards.

The running backs are probably best not spoken of. Shane Vereen had more catches (5) than rushing attempts (4), though he averaged 8.5 yards a carry. Not to beat a dead horse, but his average was so high because he ran out of spread formations, which is the only formation they should have run from. Oh... and Vereen and Stevan Ridley did a nice job in pass protection.

The offensive line was too inconsistent. Nothing in the running game, and they gave up two sacks for 21 yards, 3 QB hits, and 3 tackles for a loss. Also, the second sack was a blown play by Logan Mankins on fourth down, and there was too much pressure coming up the middle all game long.

On the other side of the ball, the secondary apparently can't sustain an injury to Aqib Talib without melting down. For the second straight year, he got injured in the first half of the AFC Championship Game, and the other team picked the secondary apart in his absence.

Dennard switched to Talib's "cover Damarius Thomas" role, and he got beaten and beaten and beaten. Kyle Arrington missed an easy interception, and rookie Logan Ryan looked a bit lost in the big moment. And even though safety Devin McCourty led the team in tackles (9), he was late in coverage too often.

The linebackers actually played a decent game. Jamie Collins (7 tackles, 1 pass defended) and Dont'a Hightower (8 tackles) were both hot-and-cold, but each had short bursts where they dominated play. It showed that the team has a lot to build on there, especially if Jerod Mayo comes back strong from his injury. Not that any of that helped yesterday.

The defensive line just stunk the joint out. Zero sacks, zero QB hits, and Manning scanning the field all day, just slicing and dicing with pinpoint passes. Chandler Jones no where to be found, Rob Ninkovich was double-teamed and ineffective, and the inside men unable to get any pressure up the middle. A really, really bad game by all involved (except maybe for Sealver Siliga -- 5 tackles, one for a loss).

Special teams were unremakable. Aside from a Patriots pooch-kickoff, there were no kickoff returns in the game, with kickers putting the ball through the end zone every time in the thin air. Also, no punt returns. And the field goal units were perfect on both sides. So that was a wash.

The Patriots coaching staff did a decent job with the defensive plan, but a very bad job with the offense. On defense, the plan with Manning has to be to stop him when you can and make him take field goals as often as he gets touchdowns. Yesterday they made him take twice as many field goals (4 field goals to 2 touchdowns). So even with the injury problems, the defense did well enough to keep the game winnable.

However, on offense their plan coming into the game was flawed. No one has run on Denver lately, and the Patriots recent running success came in bad weather against teams not that great at stopping the run. And once the game started, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels took much too long to adjust and start throwing.

So where does that leave us? Rooting for the hated Peyton Manning or the oft-derided Pete Carroll in the Super Bowl. I won't be rooting for anyone in specific; just for a good game so the entire day isn't wasted. Whatever you decide to do, hope your SB Sunday is enjoyable... after all, you've got two weeks to recover from this game before then.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Brady's numbers were decent, but Denver defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio got his first victory over a Brady-led team.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The offense depends completely on Gronkowski, and the defense depends completely on Talib. That has to change next season."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  13-5 & 1-1!

Patriots 28, Vikings 18

It's weeks like this when you should cherish being a Patriots fan.  In most NFL cities, you get one good year out of three, owing to the unbalanced schedule and the fact that most teams don't draft well beyond the first 20 picks.  That's how it is in Minnesota -- and as if to prove it, the Vikings (who were in the NFC Championship Game last year) brought their can't-do attitude to Foxboro on Sunday and left with a 28-18 loss amid a lot of head scratching.  Meanwhile the Patriots continued their winning ways, sporting a 6-1 record that tops the entire NFL and puts them a game ahead in the division race.

At first, it looked like all-world running back Adrian Peterson would shred the Pats on the ground all day long, ripping off runs of 8, 7, 8, 9, 7, and 8 yards in the first half.  But it wasn't all bad; he was also stopped for no gain or a loss four times, including on a third-and-one to stop a drive and fourth-and-goal at the 1 yard line.  That last stop kept the game tied 7-7 at the half, and the tackle was made by rookies Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes.

The Patriots defense continues on the road to improvement.  After being completely unable to stop anyone on third down, they held the Vikings to 36% in that key stat (after holding the Ravens to 31% two weeks ago).  Moving Vince Wilfork to an outside line position seems to confound opposing offenses, creating mismatches for Wilfork and allowing Mike Wright to attack with speed against schemes designed to stop beef.  The young linemen also improve every week; with Brandon Deaderick earning another start and Myron Pryor and Ron Brace looking a *lot* better than they did last year.

And all that up-front scheming leaves the linebackers to run to the ball, and Jerod Mayo is close to returning to his 2008 form (you remember; when he won Defensive Rookie of the Year).  Mayo's inside running mate Brandon Spikes shows good instincts and now rarely runs himself out of a play.  And for regular readers of this blog, you know that is progress -- since he did that a *lot* at the beginning of the year.  Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich still aren't where the defense needs them to be in holding up against the run and pressuring the quarterback.  And there were holes yesterday in the intermediate passing game over the middle.  But at this point, much improved from the start of the season.

The secondary did a terrific job yesterday in man-coverage.  Not so much in the soft zone; but when corners Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty jam receivers at the line they can run with just about anyone and showed good tackling ability (save for one catch-and-run by Percy Harvin against Arrington).  And McCourty plays the ball a lot better now, getting turned to the ball to knock it down and avoid penalties.  He cut inside a route by Harvin to break up a long pass, and ripped the ball away from Harvin later in the quarter for the only INT of the game.  The safeties played very deep against Minnesota, taking them out of the intermediate passing zones, but they never got beaten deep... until Brandon Merriweather found himself singled up on Randy Moss and had to commit a penalty to save a touchdown.

The Patriots running game was the opposite of the Vikings'.  The Pats totaled only 9 yards in the first half, but changed the blocking schemes to break out with 113 yards in the last 30 minutes.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis broke 100 yards for the first time in his career (17 carries for 112 yards), and scored two touchdowns for the first time, too.  He showed good quickness, hitting the hole and then making decisive cuts to get enough extra real estate against the secondary, and he averaged an impressive 6.6 yards a carry.  And you can't say enough about Danny Woodhead, who has now fully stepped into the role Kevin Faulk occupied for so long.  Now that they do direct-snaps to Woodhead (probably the closest you'll ever get to the Wildcat from the Patriots), he's doing everything Faulk did -- including breaking tackles to get important first downs late in the game.

Tom Brady's day seemed pretty pedestrian; but he had a 65-yard touchdown that was one of his best plays with the Patriots -- period.  He slid away from the pass rush, broke contain and spun away from more pressure before finding Brandon Tate breaking free down the sideline.  Oh, and Brady stood his ground to make that throw in the face of a big hit coming his way.  Just a great overall play.  Other than that, hewas cool and efficient, a few throw-aways to avoid sacks or INTs, and very good on third down.

The O-line was like the running game; not much in the first half but more push and better protection in the second.  Given how they man-handled a very good Vikings defensive line in the second half, it makes me wonder how good they will be if Logan Mankins, one of the best guards in the league, returns to play the last six games of the season, as he will reportedly do today.

On special teams, there were zero mistakes on long snaps; so it appears that Jake Ingram got all those problems out of the way against the Chargers.  It was another good day for both Zoltan Mesko and Stephen Gostkowski; with Mesko getting the Patriots out of a hole with a 55-yard punt.

And it bears special mention that the Patriots coaches have out-adjusted their last four opponents at the half.  The reason it bears mentioning is that it hasn't been consistently true for 2+ years.  But the Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers, and now Vikings were outscored in the second half, and the Patriots offense in particular has performed a lot better after the break.

So where does that leave us?  Well, 6-1 isn't bad at all, putting the Patriots on pace for 13 or 14 wins for the year.  As mentioned, they lead the NFL at the moment, and they have a game against the 2-5 Browns next week.  But don't take that game too lightly -- the Browns beat the Saints the last time they played, and the last time Mangini had a bye week to prepare for the Patriots he unexpectedly beat them.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Patriots inside linebacker Jerod Mayo leads the entire NFL in tackles with 86, even though he has played fewer games than the second and third place players.  Trivia question: when was the last time the league leader in tackles was from the Patriots (answer below)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe Logan Mankins should talk to Randy Moss before he fully commits to leaving the Patriots.  The grass ain't always greener."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Okay... trick question -- the NFL has only kept official tackling stats for a few years, and the Patriots never had anyone lead the league.

Patriots Get Even Thinner with Moss Departure

You have no doubt read or heard that the Patriots traded Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings, a home-coming for Moss, who started his NFL career there.  The Pats reportedly received the Vikings 2011 third-round pick, and the Vikings received a deep-ball threat they desperately need before their 2010 season crashes and burns.

Moss' departure is a double-edged sword for the Patriots.  The pessimists say they lost their only deep threat, a receiver with 50+ touchdowns in three years and who commanded double coverage by all but the most talented defenses.  The optimists say that Brady threw to Moss much too often and will point to his pouting on the sidelines and post-game rant after the opening day win as distractions the team can live without.

As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  I have criticized Brady for chucking passes to Moss even when he was covered, hoping Randy could come down with the ball or at least knock it down.  That worked in 2007; but in 2009 it twice led to bad interceptions in games the Patriots lost (Indy and Miami).  But I have also praised Moss for playing hurt and accepting the decoy role as other Patriots receivers benefited from his presence.  No chance the Patriots go 11-5 with QB Matt Cassel in 2008.

But when I read the news, I thought the new Patriots were aptly described in the title of a Stephen King novel.  "Thinner" was published by King under a pseudonym in 1984, and in it, the main character is cursed with becoming continually thinner.  It continues until he is barely able to walk and awaits his fate of inevitable heart failure while a close friend frantically tries to find a way to save him.

And that describes perfectly this Patriots team.  They once sported depth at most positions that was the envy of the league.  Richard Seymour goes down, plug in Jarvis Green and keep going.  Ty Law gets injured, put in rookie Randall Gayand the victories continue to pile up.  Lawyer Milloy leaves for more money and Eugene Wilson steps in and they win the Super Bowl.

But the 2010 version is dangerously thin at several key positions.  With the departure of Moss, they are one injury away from double coverage on both Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez. One linebacker injury, and Gary Guyton starts the next game... and the opposing team salivates.  A suspension in the defensive backfield and Ty Law *might* be walking through that door; and he *will* be old and gray.  Another of their thirtysomething running backs goes down and I expect a call from Belichick, asking if I can learn the playbook by next week.

They is also a huge gulf between the starting and backup quarterback, and the defensive line is already "by committee" -- so an injury there would put Ron Brace into that rotation... not good, people.

From a top-to-bottom talent level, the Patriots were stout and hearty in 2004.  But since then, they looked a little lanky in 2005, and pale and peaked in 2006.  They got a top-line talent infusion in 2007, but the aging defense got rickety in 2008, and the gulf between starters and backups was positively cavernous in 2009.

It might not come back to bite them, but trading Randy Moss left them shakily thin at yet another position.  My most recent "Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom" was "Brandon Tate... worth the wait."  That better be true; because if he and Hernandez can't stretch the field, it'll be a lot tougher for Wes Welker to get eight catches a game, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to average 4.6 yards a carry.

Here's hoping the Patriots can avoid key injuries or suspensions.  Otherwise, the season might end as horribly as "Thinner" did -- and trust me folks, it was not a pretty ending to that story.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

Patriots 31, Vikings 7 (10/30/2006)

So much for pretender-to-the-thrown #2. The Patriots ground the Minnesota Vikings into a fine purple powder, whipping the latest young guns 31-7 and cementing their place among the 2006 NFL elite. The Vikes followed the Bengals as supposed contenders who were exposed by a superior team, with the Patriots destroying the two of them by a combined 69-20 in bookend wins to begin and end October. The win gives the Pats a 6-1 record, second best in the conference to... the Indianapolis Colts (7-0), who travel to Foxboro for a game this Sunday night.

Little did anyone know, but the Pats had the Vikings game won last Wednesday, when the coaching staff showed their brilliant game plan to the players. The plan surgically removed the two Viking strengths; by passing instead of going against a strong run defense, and then by scoring enough to force the Vikings to abandon their running game and play catch-up with a 37-year-old QB. Bill Parcells might think it’s a dumb-ass thing to say, but the Patriots out-coached the Vikings by a wide, wide margin.

Of course, all of that scheming can’t work without great execution by the players, and at the top of the list last night was Tom Brady. I know QBs get too much credit when the team wins, but the entire plan depended on his ability to read defenses quickly and find the right receiver each time. Well, he completed 67% of his passes for 372 yards and 4 touchdowns to just 1 interception (his only bad throw of the night). Considering that the game was played the Thunder-dome in Minnesota, with fans making verbal communication all but impossible, this might have been Brady’s best performance as a pro.

And I think he and his receivers have officially developed plenty of chemistry. Ben Watson had 7 catches for 95 hard-nosed yards (man, he just plows through guys) and 1 touchdown. Reche Caldwell went 7-84-1, with two important third-down catches that kept a scoring drive going late in the first half – a drive that made it 17-0. And Doug Gabriel had 5 catches for 83 yards, and perhaps the most important catch-and-run of the game when he turned a third-and-10 at the Patriots 14 into a first-and-10 at the Vikings 41.

The running game was an afterthought (even though the Pats ended up with 85 yards on only 15 carries). But props go out to the running backs and offensive linemen, who combined to give Brady time and keep him upright for most of the game. Brady was sacked three times, but two of them were obvious coverage-sacks.

And naturally, the team couldn’t have won without another outstanding game from their defense. The Vikings prided themselves on their running game, but they didn’t stick with it too long. The big early deficit forced Brad Johnson out of his comfort zone (does *that* sound familiar?) and he cracked under the pressure, throwing three terrible interceptions and admitting after the game he was confused by the defensive scheme (even though he’s a 14-year veteran).

On the line, Richard Seymour played hurt (and acquitted himself well), but still took up his usual two players so his teammates could get the glory. Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren collapsed the pocket play after play, keeping the Viking QB on the run all night. Tully Banta-Cain and Rosevelt Colvin held a clinic on how to beat a big offensive line with outside speed, alternating their pass rush between outside speed and fakes/spins back to the inside. Banta-Cain had his best day as a Patriot, notching two sacks and numerous other pressures, and while Colvin missed his one chance at a sack, he helped disrupt the timing in the passing game.

In the secondary, Rodney Harrison, Chad Scott, and Ellis Hobbs must have been jealous of Asante Samuel’s penchant for interceptions, because they all got one last night. Along with Mike Vrabel’s INT, they helped stop the Vikings from scoring a single point on offense. They forced long drives by keeping receivers in front of them and making sure tackles. Johnson has a weak arm, so the Patriots made him throw long passes by forcing his receivers toward the sidelines. (Note: a 25-yard pass down the middle travels only 30 yards, accounting for the drop-back. A 25-yard pass to the sideline travels over 40 yards, and that’s beyond Brad Johnson’s throwing range.) Again, a QB out of his comfort zone places the Patriots defense squarely into their own comfort zone.

Make no mistake about it, this is a championship level defense. They are now ranked third in the NFL in points allowed (87) and point differential (scored 80 more points than they’ve given up).

Penalties were a problem for the Pats, with 9 infractions for 85 yards, and some stupid ones, too boot (Vince Wilfork roughed the passer and Logan Mankins had a taunting penalty). And special teams had its share of problems with penalties, but atoned for the mistakes with some big plays. The Pats started their first two drives deep in their own territory because of penalties. And they gave up a punt return for a touchdown to account for Minnesota’s only points. But Laurence Maroney answered that punt return with a 77 kick-off return – the second week in a row that he gave the Patriots a short field just in time to kill the other team’s momentum. And the kick-off coverage team used shorter-but-higher kicks by Stephen Gostkowski to bottle up Bethel Johnson for a 20-yard average.

As for the coaching, refer to the top two paragraphs. Suffice it to say, they only care about winning the game in front of them, and they have some of the most creative solutions to what the problems other teams present. The Patriots obviously want a team with maximum flexibility, so they can beat a range of opponents from week to week. And as of now, they have a team that can stop the run and/or the pass, and that can control the ball and score with the run, the pass, or both. If they can shore up the kick-return game, they could be in for another deep playoff run.

So where does that leave us. Well, Denver lost, which leaves the Pats alone in second place in the AFC. Only the Colts (at 7-0) have a better record, and they have a game in Foxboro this Sunday that could even the teams at 7-1, if the Patriots can win. Indy’s run defense is suspect, so you might see the exact opposite of the Vikings game, with the Pats running 75% of the time. Who knows. But where it really leaves us is where we wanted to be. If the playoffs started today, the Pats would have a first-round bye – which is what you play for the entire year.

Statistical oddity of the week: Seattle and St. Louis are tied for the NFC West lead with identical 4-3 records. But both teams have scored fewer points than they’ve given up. Go figure.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Brad Johnson just can’t throw the long ball. Both teams ran 61 plays on Monday, but the Pats had almost 150 more yards.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-1!