Patriots Outlast Cardinals, 23-21

The Patriots used excellent game-planning and some luck to beat back the Cardinals in Arizona, 23-21, on Sunday night. Combined with losses by all other AFC East teams (shocker!), the win puts them in first place in the AFC East all alone after one week. Next up is a divisional home tilt with the Dolphins, where they should hope to have more of their starters back.

Not to denigrate the players, but the hero of this game was defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. His game plan took away the deep pass and made Arizona beat them with running plays and short passes. Not only did he force the Cardinals away from their preferred method of attack, but it took Arizona for-EVER to adjust.

Of their first eight possessions, Arizona punted five times and the first half ended, and their only two scores came on short fields after turnovers. They finally changed strategies with about 12 minutes to go, but it was desperation time by then.

Patricia's plan worked nearly flawlessly, and Arizona's bumbling incompetence on their last drive sealed the deal for the Patriots. They were in field goal range but had a holding call and then a short pass for a loss. They finally got close enough to try a field goal on fourth down, but the long snapper botched the snap and the holder placed the ball in the wrong spot -- field goal attempt wide-left.

The result, a close game that went the Patriots way when the other team failed to adjust and then made the critical errors at the end. If that sounds like a familiar refrain, it's been repeated over and over for the last 16 years.

The biggest stars on defense were one guy you saw and someone you probably didn't notice. You wouldn't think a 6' 6" 350-pound guy could be missed, but because Alan Branch plays inside with lots of other big players, it can happen.

Branch was crucial to stuffing the Arizona running game and pushing the pocket back into the quarterback. He had the most consistently good game of any defender. And even though he only totaled 2 tackles and no QB hits, he was my defensive star of the week, mostly because everyone else was more up-and-down.

Chris Long also stood out on the defensive line. He ended up with 3 tackles and a sack, and also hit the quarterback once. Long mostly replaced Rob Ninkovich (serving a four-game suspension), and if Sunday night's game is any indication, the defensive line is going to be a real strength with Long complimenting Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard on the outside.

The secondary was the next best defensive unit, though it wasn't always pretty. Three corners, starters Malcom Butler and Logan Ryan, and nickel back Justin Coleman, made big knock-downs but also gave up plays. Though the team mostly played zone, so sometimes it's tough to tell who was responsible in that situation.

Safety Devin McCourty had nine tackles, and the secondary overall accounted for over half the total tackles (25 of 47). Usually that's a bad sign, but the defensive game plan allowed for short pass completions and the secondary made sure tackles to keep those gains short.

At linebacker, Jamie Collins had one of those impressive stat lines: 4 tackles, 1 sack (8 yards lost), 1 tackle for a loss, 1 QB hit, and 1 pass defended. Although he mis-timed his attempt to block an extra point and ended up with a 15-yard penalty on the ensuing kickoff. So we might not be seeing that play again. 

On a side note, LB Jonathan Freeny is in danger of losing his starting job. He played just 10% of the snaps, while newcomer Shea McClellin grabbed 39%. And with Barkevious Mingo waiting in the wings, it looks like Freeny will be a special-teamer only soon.

It's only one game, so not time to gush about quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo just yet, but he did a nice job in this one. He was mostly poised, only threw the ball into harm's way once, and stayed with the game plan of making positive plays each time, even if it was a short gain. He ended the day 24 of 33 (73%) for 264 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, and 1 lost fumble.

His average of 7.3 yards per attempt was fairly good, too, and he used his legs to buy time on a few plays (and to run for an important first down). However, he has to learn not to run backwards 10+ yards trying to get free. Defenders will hunt him down and the loss of yardage isn't worth the risk. But overall, an impressive debut.

The receivers made Garoppolo's job a lot easier, starting with Julian Edelman. He had 7 catches on 7 targets for 66 yards and 3 first downs (he also ran for a first down). If Wes Welker was the original "slot machine," Edelman is the 2.0 version, and is vastly improved model. He can't be single-covered, and even when bracketed, he can shake free with unmatched quickness, which was on full display Sunday night.

Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell showed nice timing with Garoppolo, too, with Hogan getting the first touchdown of the game (and 2 other catches, for a total of 60 yards), and Mitchell making 2 catches and almost getting to a back-shoulder (or back-thigh) throw from Garoppolo.

The running game was another key to the win, and blocking by tight end Martellus Bennett, guard Ted Karras, and tackle Marcus Cannon were key to its success. Bennett sealed the edge very well, and there were multiple plays where Karras got two blocks inside.

The average wasn't great, 3.4 yards per carry, but it helped the Patriots maintain control of the ball for almost 34 minutes of game time. LeGarrette Blount was the only running back who had many yards (70, on 22 carries), but back James White had a terrific night catching passes out of the backfield. He had 5 catches for 40 yards, including a great reach-back grab at the shoe tops.

In last year's AFC Championship game, White and Tom Brady missed their timing in several potential game-breaking passes. So it's nice to see the hard-working White improve his speed and get more in sync with the QB in the passing attack. The Pats have missed Shane Vereen in that role, and would benefit from White stepping into it.

The offensive line was a mixed bag. Center David Andrews got pushed around and had a tripping penalty. And although Karras and Cannon were decent in the running game, the pass blocking overall was only good enough for quick-hit passes.

Emergency tackle Cameron Fleming had some nice cut blocks on outside passes, but he got man-handled by outside pass pressure all night. A work in progress, as they say. But of course, they have the man to do it in new/old offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia. (Trivia question: Scarnecchia has worked for the Patriots under six head coaches, how many can you name? Answer below.)

Special teams were interesting, especially the kickoffs. Most times, kicker Stephen Gostkowski booted it high and just to the goal line. This forced the Cardinals to return the kicks, and with the high trajectory, the Patriots coverage team was there to stop the return cold.

On non-touchback kickoffs, Arizona's average starting field position was the 15 yard line, so it worked out well. Also of note; rookie Cyrus Jones was great in kick coverage, getting to the returner before Matthew Slater did on every kick I recall. And of course, the Patriots didn't miss any field goals, and AZ did, so that is a victory.

The Pats coaching staff was vastly better than Arizona's on Sunday. They formulated a great plan entering the game, and it took far too long for the Cardinals coaches to adjust. This was one of those surprise victories, when everything looked to be going against the Patriots, yet Belichick and his staff pulled one out with guile and guts.

So where does that leave us? The Patriots are the only 1-0 team in the AFC East, so they are in first place by a game already. The Dolphins are traditionally much tougher to play in Miami, so the Pats should be able to handle them this week in Foxboro.

Non-Garoppolo MVP of the Week: Martellus Bennett, who was instrumental in the running attack that kept the Cardinals offense on the sideline.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In one start, Jimmy Garoppolo's one reception is already half as many receptions as Tom Brady has in 225 regular-season starts (2).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Add Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, and Brady to this offense and it looks scary."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-0!

PPS. Trivia answer
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Scarnecchia worked under these Patriots head coaches:
Ron Meyer
Raymond Berry
Dick MacPherson
Bill Parcells
Pete Carroll
Bill Belichick
(Luckily he missed the dreaded 1-15 season with Rod Rust at the helm.)

Patriots 2016 Primer!

Tough to believe it's go time, but the Patriots are in Phoenix already, starting the season sans Brady for the first time this millennium.

Lots of changes this off-season, with some exciting new players coming in and a few good vets gone. Here’s a breakdown of what those changes portend and how the team will bounce back from the loss in the AFC Championship game.

Offense

1. Brady takes a powder

No one expects Jimmy Garoppolo to supplant Tom Brady while the incumbent serves his four-game suspension for being on the Commissioner’s bad side. And this is less a test of Garoppolo than of the coaching staff, specifically head coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

The last time they were without Brady, they turned Matt Cassel into an 11-game winner. But bear in mind, the prior year the Pats won 16 games, so it dropped five games in the standings when Brady went down with a knee injury. Putting in plays that work to Jimmy G’s strengths will be the key, along with leaning on a rising defense.

Garoppolo’s job is to hold things steady until Brady returns. He will likely lose the first game of his career -- Arizona is a very good team, and road games haven’t gone well with the Patriots offensive line woes. If he goes 2-2 he will have done his job (to coin a phrase). Anything less and it’ll be an uphill battle for the division.

2. Two Tight End Offense, Round FOUR!

2016 is literally the fourth time the Patriots have tried to replace Aaron Hernandez in the two tight end offense. Michael Hoomanawanui, the Tim Wright Trade, and last year, Scott Chandler from Buffalo. All hoped to be the answer, none turned out to be.

But this year it appears the Patriots got it right. Two seasons ago, Martellus Bennett caught 90 passes for the usually run-heavy Chicago Bears, and he made the Pro Bowl that year. In limited preseason action, he had seven catches and showed good timing with both Brady and Garoppolo.

The team kept four tight ends and a fullback, indicating they plan to run the ball more. And with Bennett to compliment G.O.A.T. Rob Gronkowski, the two tight end offense could hum like it did when Hernandez wasn’t in the clink.

3. Running Back and Wide Receivers In Flux

Electrifying back Dion Lewis is out for at least the first six weeks after undergoing a second procedure on his injured knee. In the preseason, rookie D.J. Foster made the strongest case to replace Lewis, but rookie running backs rarely get significant playing time under Belichick.

The smart money would be on James White, who looked better this preseason than he did last year, and Brandon Bolden. It looks like LeGarrette Blount will be the first- and second-down back. And that will be especially true if the team protects Garoppolo with more running plays early in the year.

At wide receiver, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola are working back from injuries, free agent signee Chris Hogan and rookie Malcolm Mitchell looked good, and they really only carried four wideouts (Matthew Slater is more of a special teamer). All of this probably means a re-emphasis on the running attack.

Even so, questions surround whether Amendola can hold off Hogan, and how Mitchell will look when he returns from his elbow injury. Decent play in the preseason doesn’t always translate to regular-season success. And if I had to guess, I’d say Hogan might take snaps from Amendola, and the tight ends take some of Edelman’s catches this year -- just so he doesn't risk re-injuring himself.

4. Offensive Line Transition

How much uncertainty is there on the offensive line? Two of last year’s starters were cut, both starting tackles from last year are injured, they have rookies backing up center, right guard, and left guard, and Marcus Cannon is your starting right tackle. They also traded Chandler Jones for former #7 draft pick Jonathan Cooper, but of course, Cooper was injured most of the preseason.

Long-time O-line coach Dante Scarnecchia returned, and he has his work cut out for him. The line looked mediocre in the preseason, but the hallmark of a “Scar” line is that it improves as the season goes on, even in the face of injuries. It’ll be a work in progress the first month, but if you see improvement in October, chalk it up to Scarnecchia.

Defense

1. Three-Headed Linebackers

With tight end Bennett in the fold, the biggest talent drop-off on the team was from starting linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower to journeyman Jonathan Freeny. Enter Barkevious Mingo, former #6 draft pick acquired from the Browns. He has the athleticism to make it tougher to pick on him as the weak link in the linebacking corps.

His only preseason action was impressive, as he was a one-man wrecking crew against the Giants. He did miss some assignments, but seemed to understand the basic defensive calls pretty quickly, which is important. Being an athlete is only half the equation; you can’t stay on the field in New England if you don't know where to be on the field.

Mingo might not start week one, but he’ll be an able fill-in, and he should be starting by week three or four. When that happens, teams won’t be able to attack any weak link at linebacker, because the starting three will all be studs. Expect Hightower to move back inside, so Mingo and Collins can roam free outside.

2. Defensive Line Transformation

Two years ago the Pats had bruising plodders along most of their defensive line, anchored by longtime nose tackle Vince Wilfork. They still have two large bodies in the middle, in Alan Branch and Malcom Brown. But outside, they are all speed and athleticism.

Chris Long was brought in from St. Louis, and Jabaal Sheard starts his second season with the team after an impressive 2015. Trey Flowers and Anthony Johnson both impressed in the preseason, with strong bursts and penetration that broke up plays before they started. And when Rob Ninkovich returns from an PED suspension, that will up the speed ante even more.

Brown looks ready to break out this year, and if he can push the pocket back, the outside defensive linemen could have a field day against indecisive quarterbacks.

3. Third Corner a Question

Cornerback Malcom Bulter continues to impress, making the absolute most out of his opportunities in the NFL, and Logan Ryan was decent in the preseason. The third corner position is the one up for grabs, and it’ll be nail-biting time when Cyrus Jones or Justin Coleman covers the third best receiver on the other side.

The team traded for Eric Rowe, but don’t expect anything great from him. The team might have to count on getting to the quarterback, especially when their opponent has more than two dependable receivers.

Special Teams/Coaching

1. Three-Man Operation

The kicking unit had a rough preseason, with two missed field goals, at least one on a bad snap. It appears long snapper Joe Cardona has regressed a bit, and it’ll be up to special teams coach Joe Judge to get him back in sync for the regular season.

2. Jones To The Rescue?

Cyrus Jones was drafted at cornerback, but his most exciting plays in the preseason were punt returns. He had two exceptional punt returns, showed great instincts, and perhaps most important, is patient with the blocking (not easy to do when people are running toward you at 25 miles per hour).

Just having Jones return punts relieves some pressure and danger from Amendola and Edelman. If he does it well, all the better!

3. The More Belichick The Better

Bill Belichick’s son, Steve, took over as safeties coach this season. The unit was decent last year, but did fall back some from the 2014 campaign. If the younger Belichick can help return Devin McCourty to his Pro Bowl form and get a better year out of Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon, he will have proven this wasn’t just a family hire.

The Schedule

And here is my annual attempt to predict the results of each game before the team takes its first snap, as always, with the season broken down into quarters.

BTW, not that I’m bragging, but I’m 27-for-32 predicting the last two seasons :)

First Quarter

• Expect the Patriots to lose their first game of the year in Arizona. This would have been a tough spot with Brady at QB, never mind with Garoppolo, problems on offensive line, and no Gronkowski.
• Game two is the home opener against Miami, and I don’t see any way they lose the first two games of the year. Season splits between these two are common, but usually the home team comes away with the victories.
• Next up is the Houston Texans, who fly in for a Thursday night game in Foxboro. Thursday night road teams have a terrible record, as do the Texans against the Patriots. Mark down win #2.
• The following game is at home against Buffalo. As with last year, the Patriots have 10 days to prepare for this one, so I won’t make the same mistake I did in 2015 -- Pats win this one.

Second Quarter

• The return of Tom Brady presents a tougher challenge than many people foresee at Cleveland against the Browns. The Browns have four road games bracketing this home tilt, so you know they’ll want to win one in from of the home crowd. But I don’t see any way Brady doesn’t come away with a win in his first real game action of the season, so put this down as win #4.
• Cincinnati comes to Foxboro the following Sunday, and until they prove otherwise, the Bengals can’t beat the Patriots unless they are in Cincy. 5-1 after this game.
• Next up is a trip to Pittsburgh, and I smell a loss here. Tom Brady has basically owned the Steelers for 10+ years, but Pittsburgh morphed from a run-first, defensive team, to a throw-first passing attack team. And they have the weapons to win that kind of game, especially when the Pats offense has to put up with crowd noise and tough pass rushers.
• The Pats then travel to Buffalo, and frankly, Brady owns the Bills in Buffalo. 6-2 at the halfway mark of the season.

Third Quarter

• After a bye week, the second half of the season starts with a barn-burner, the Seattle Seahawks! The biggest danger here is that the Pats offense often starts slow after a bye week, so it could look bad early on. But i don’t think Seattle is who they were a few seasons ago, and the Patriots defense showed they can shut them down in the Super Bowl. Patriots win.
• If Seattle doesn’t worry me, you know going to San Francisco to play the 49ers doesn’t. Make that 8-2.
• The next game is dangerous, in New York to play the improving Jets. New York has a bye the week before, so they’ll have two weeks to plan for the Pats. And Jets head coach Todd Bowles has them heading in the right direction. Even if the Patriots are fully healthy, these division games are brutal, so I’ll give them their third loss.
• The Rams are finally back home in Los Angeles, but the Patriots are unlikely to show them any hospitality when they come to Foxboro. Jeff Fischer likes to win with defense and running; but that never worked for the Steelers, and it won't work here. Sounds like 9-3 to me.

Fourth Quarter

• The Baltimore game is up next, and that’s a tricky one. The Ravens have been down for two years, but they always get up for the Pats. Also, the Patriots have to travel to Denver the following week, so they could overlook Baltimore. But it appears the Ravens just aren’t as good as they used to be, and the Pats defense should be able to give them fits, so put down a win and keep your fingers crossed.
• In Denver on a short week, crowd noise and pass rush versus the Patriots offensive line --  sounds like a disaster. But the Pats have something to prove after last year, and if form holds, QB Trevor Siemian will be making his 14th start in this game. And the last time a young QB beat Belichick in his 14th start was Chad Pennington, 14 years ago. That sliver of hope has me predicting a Patriots win.
• J-E-T-S on the road just aren’t that good. Put the Patriots down for a win over New York the following Saturday.
• Patriots play in Miami to finish the season. And while that is often a recipe for disaster, I suspect this game will mean something. Patriots win comfortably in south Florida, for one of the few times in Brady’s career.

That puts the Patriots at 13-3, a game better than last season. That would put them in the running for a playoff bye and perhaps the #1 seed in the AFC.

Enjoy the season!

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Super Bowl Preview: Patriots vs. Seahawks

Well folks, it’s finally here. After two weeks of more PSI than YAC, the Super Bowl is this Sunday, kicking off around 6:35 pm. Not as much hype this year, with discussions side-tracked by deflated footballs and a non-talking running back.

It is tough to predict how this game will go, because the teams haven’t met in over two years. That game ended with a rookie Wilson (Seahawks quarterback Russell) beating another rookie Wilson (Patriots safety Tavon) on a last-minute touchdown to win the game 24-23. Both players are improved since then, the QB becoming a star and the safety becoming a part-time player who doesn't get beaten deep any more.

Given that I haven’t watched a lot of Seahawks games, I’ll concentrate more on how I see the Patriots attacking them, on both offense and defense. And without further adieu, here are five questions that make up my Super Duper Super Special Super Bowl Preview.

Is the Seahawks defense as good as advertised?

The Seattle defense gets a lot of pub, and most of it is earned. They are the first team since the 1985-86 Bears to allow the fewest points and the fewest yards two seasons in a row. In 2014 they ranked #5 in opponent QB rating, #2 in yards-per-completion against, allowed the fifth-fewest plays of 40+ yards, and gave up the third-fewest first downs.

They did have surprisingly few interceptions (17, ranking them #18) and sacks (37, ranking them #20). And to be fair they faced some real dreck at the quarterback position this year. Arizona and St. Louis put up backup QBs in both division games with Seattle, and they played Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco) twice, and he had his worst year as a pro. They also got to rout old friend Marc Sanchez with Philadelphia.

But you can only play who is on your schedule, and the Seattle D earned respect no matter who they faced. They even do well against the run. They ranked #2 in yards per carry against (3.4 ypc), and they only gave up a rushing touchdown every other game (eight on the year).

So even if you think the Patriots diversified offense will find a way to attack this defense, don’t for a second think Seattle’s D is overrated.

Is the Patriots defensive plan as simple as 5-2-4?

In week 16, the Patriots employed an unusual defensive alignment to stop the Jets: five defensive linemen, two linebackers, and four defensive backs. This 5-2-4 defense gave them more players at the line to stop the Jets running attack and more pass rushers to collapse the pocket without allowing the quarterback to escape.

It worked very well. From the first game to the second one, the Jets rushing production dropped from 218 yards to 116. And QB Geno Smith, who ran for four first downs in the earlier game, ran for none in the second one.

Seattle plays a similar style of offense, albeit with much better execution and quarterback play than the Jets.

The Seahawks boast an excellent running attack and a quarterback who is better when improvising outside the pocket. Running back Marshawn Lynch averaged 81.7 yards a game (4.7 ypc), and their second leading rusher was Wilson with 53.1/game (7.1 ypc). And Wilson is okay in the pocket but much more dangerous on the run, especially when his receivers break patterns down the field.

I think it’s likely the Patriots will use the 5-2-4 to combat Seattle’s offense. They can always switch out of it, but it seems perfectly suited to slowing down the Seahawks running attack and containing Wilson in the pocket.

If the Pats decide to use a more conventional defense, look for more zone than man-to-man to start the game, as that helps them against the run. Either that or you’ll see more single-high safety with Patrick Chung near the line to help in run support and Devin McCourty playing centerfield.

Also, if they go with a more standard defensive set, discipline is the key. Lynch thrives on contact, so the Patriots have to tackle well. Wilson excels outside the pocket (running or throwing), so maintaining rushing lanes and collapsing the pocket is more important than knifing in for a big play.

If I had to guess, I’d say the Patriots go more conventional at first. But if Lynch or Wilson start to crank it up, look for the Patriots to beef up on the line to slow them down.

Will Blount force soften Seattle’s defense?

Four times this year the Patriots played teams with quick-but-small defensive fronts. And all four times they loaded up with extra offensive linemen and a second and/or third tight end, and they ran the ball at will. And it just so happens Seattle's defense is quick-but-small, especially up front.

The first such game was in Minnesota, where they ran for 150 yards on 37 carries (4.1 ypc).  Three weeks later the Patriots racked up 220 yards on 46 carries (4.8 ypc) in a pasting of the Bengals. And in two games versus the Colts, the Pats gained 423 yards on 84 carries (5.0 ypc).

The Patriots didn’t just run the ball when they had a big lead; in all those games they used the rushing attack to bludgeon the opponent into submission. And 42 carries per game might be the most important stat of all. It shows how the Patriots tailored their game plan to defeat a specific weaknesses: a size mismatch.

In those four games, they averaged 42 carries for 198 yards (4.7 ypc). In their other twelve games they averaged just 22.6 carries for 78 yards (3.5 ypc). So they saw a weakness on the other team and switched to a power running game for just that week.

How long they stay with it mostly depends on how effective it is. And even if it is successful, eventually they’ll use play-action passes to attack deep. But if the New England running game gets going, it’ll be tough for Seattle to stop it -- they just don’t have the muscle up front.

And no doubt the Patriots will give this a try. After all, the aggregate score of the Patriots four run-heavy games was 160-51!

How will they stop Gronkowski? And Edelman? And LaFell? And Amendola?

The Patriots offense is an absolute nightmare for most teams. Too many formations, too many players shifting pre-snap, too many options out of every set, different pace, changing up without substituting, and a quarterback as good as anyone who’s ever played the game.

Seattle for their part likes to line up in Cover-3 or Cover-1 and beat you with superior talent, speed, and technique. They won’t shift much with pre-snap motion or formation changes, they’ll adjust who is covering whom but they won’t move people around a lot. And once the ball is snapped, they’ll be ready for whatever comes.

The problem for Seattle is that the Patriots are far more diversified on offense this season, especially in the passing game. In past years I bemoaned how they’d become too dependent on Gronkowski and Edelman (or Welker), and how that made them to easy to defend in the post-season. Most playoff teams have enough secondary talent to take two receivers out of the game, and the Patriots lacked a third or fourth threat in the passing game.

Not this year. In the last four games in which all of their top receivers played (excepting the Jets and Bills games in December), here are the number of receptions for each of those players:




	Chargers	Dolphins	Ravens	Colts	Total
Gronkowski	8	3	7	3	21
Edelman	8	7	8	9	32
LaFell	4	6	5	4	19
Amendola	3	1	5	1	10

So even if Seattle concentrates on Gronkowski and Edelman, that will leave LaFell and/or Amendola one-on-one or even open in zones. Last year it would have been enough to stop the Patriots top two receivers, but not this year. The Seahawks don’t like to mix it up on defense, but they’d better consider it on Sunday. Otherwise, once the Patriots figure out what they are doing, they’ll find the open man and slice down the field one 5- to 8-yard pass at a time.

Quick Hits:

A) For all their physical play, the Seahawks committed the fewest defensive penalties (70) in the league this year. Ironically, their offense committed the most penalties, 130.

B) Seahawks ranked a surprising twentieth in Red Zone defense, giving up touchdowns on 56.8% of opponent trips inside the 20 yard line. Patriots ranked sixth in Red Zone offense, scoring touchdowns 62.3% of the time.

C) Seattle outscored opponents 255-123 in the second half of their games (including playoffs). New England outscored opponents 265-157 in the second half of their games (including playoffs). Sounds like those two might offset each other.

D) Seahawks defenders will push the limits of what’s legal. In the NFC Championship Game, corner Byron Maxwell committed at least five penalties but was flagged just once. And defensive end Cliff Avril was cited for illegal hands to the face twice in the first half.

BTW, even though every call was obvious, both players complained to high heaven after the flags were thrown.

Summary

I’m predicting a Patriots win, by 10+ points. Not because the Patriots offense will dominate, but because the Seattle offense will struggle against the Patriots defense. For all the pre-game questions about how the Patriots will score, I don’t see how the Seahawks score more than 20 points without getting turnovers. And they are much more likely to score 13-16 points, IMO.

Note #1: for the record that every time I think a playoff game should be a “comfortable win” for the Patriots, it turns out to be a nail-biter where the Pats are as likely to lose as win.

Note #2: I am 15-3 predicting the victor in Patriots games this year, and 16 of those predictions were made before the season even started :D

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Both teams have played 18 games this year, but the Patriots have given up fewer fourth-quarter points (65) than the Seahawks (80).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Too bad the NFL botched their investigation. It would have been fun to talk about the actual matchup for two weeks."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 14-4 & 2-0!

Patriots Handle Manning, Broncos 31-21

(Sorry for the delay; I was out of town and offline for the entire day after the game, so no way to get the update in.  This update will be brief; though I hope informative.)

The Patriots rode three Denver turnovers and several other miscues to a 31-21 victory.  The win puts them at 3-2, once again placing them atop the AFC East all by themselves, a game ahead of all the other teams (who are bunched at 2-3).  The schedule has them flying west to play in Seattle, a difficult venue and a better team than most predicted.

Quick Points: Offense

1.  Enough already about Wes Welker being on the outs with the Patriots.  He made more catches every week so far this season: 3, 5, 8, 9, and 13 (and note, he's already second in the NFL in receptions.)

2.  The running game is for real -- 247 yards last week, 251 this week.  The last time the Patriots ran for 200+ years two weeks in a row was a long time ago (trivia question: name the year -- answer below).

3.  But Stevan Ridley needs to get serious about not fumbling.  In his last 6 games, he has 3 fumbles and he lost 2 of them (and he was centimeters away from another fumble at the goal line against Denver).  If he keeps it up, Brandon Boldin will take his job.

4.  The Patriots lead the NFL in scoring, and the offensive line is a work-in-progress (at best), they have been missing two of the key receivers (Aaron Hernandez and Julian Edelman), and the play-calling has been experimental at times as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels finds the plays that work best.

5.  Even with a 3-2 team, Tom Brady is probably in the running for league MVP again.  His numbers so far: 124 of 185 (67%), 1,450 yards, 8 TDs, 1 INT, and 102.8 QB rating.  And the offense should get better as the O-line gels and players return from injury.

6.  Danny Woodhead should never run the ball on first or second down.  He is much more effective when he runs against pass defenses on third-and-long.  And even though he's a liability in pass protection, he's good enough to make defenses pay if they don't know he's going to run.  (Note: point made by my friend Allan before the game.)

Quick Points: Defense

1.  The Patriots linebackers are subpar in pass coverage.  And it really shows with Dont'a Hightower out and safety Steve Gregory (out with injury) unable to help in short coverage.  This might be their achilles heel, but of course they have 11 more games to get it straightened out.

2.  As mentioned in previous updates, teams simply can't run consistently against the Patriots.  The team ranks 5th in yards-per-carry allowed (3.4) and haven't given up a single run of over 20 yards all season.

3.  The new safety rotation should be Patrick Chung, Gregory, and Devin McCourty.  Not that I'm down on McCourty, who is better than most people think.  But with rookie Tayvon Wilson in for the injured Gregory, the play-action fakes opened up too many intermediate passing plays.  And the Broncos hit several long pass plays (and just missed several other open receivers deep).

When McCourty played safety last year, at least he didn't get beaten deep.  The Patriots have more options at corner: Ras-I Dowling, Sterling Moore, Wilson, Alfonzo Dennard (who made some nice plays on Sunday), and even Nate Ebner.  But once you get past Chung and Gregory, their best option at safety is McCourty.

4.  Linebackers Rob Ninkovich and Jermaine Cunningham have improved immensely this year.  The 4-3 seems to suit Cunningham, who came off the milk carton to make several key plays already this year.  And Ninkovich was mostly just decent last year, but he's had two excellent games in a row and three overall this year.

5.  The Patriots lead the AFC in turnover ratio at +17 for the season -- an average of +3.4 per game.  The second-place team is only +8 (trivia question #2: name that team, answer below).

Quick Points: General

1.  The game was closer than you think -- without Broncos drops, it could have been a one-possession game.

2.  Patriots crowd did their best, but the stadium simply can't get that loud.  And before you blame the fans, remember that 99.5% of season tickets were renewed when they moved from Foxboro Stadium to Gillette -- and the lack of crowd noise was noted immediately at the new venue.  Same people, different stadium... you do the math.

3.  Al the Foxboro Weather God struck again.  The forecast called for rain all game long, but it only sprinkled in the first five minutes and was dry the rest of the day.  He's attended about 15 games, only one with bad weather.  For a price, he is available for weddings and bar mitzvahs -- if weather is important on your special day.  Please email for further details :)

So where does that leave us?  3-2 and leading the AFC East... has a familiar ring, doesn't it.  No chance the Patriots take the Seahawks lightly next week.  The last time they did that, the Arizona Cardinals surprised them and set them up to fall below .500 for the first time in almost a decade.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Shane Vereen's line in the game: 1 carry, 1 yard, 1 yard-per-carry, 1 touchdown, longest run 1.0 yards. Other than that run, you'd never know he even dressed for the game (no tackles, no pass receptions, and no targets in the passing game).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Cardinals held the Pats to 18 points, but they still lead the league in scoring."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  3-2!

PPS.  Trivia answer #1:

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The Patriots ran for 200+ yards 10 times in 1978, and that was the last time they ran for over 200 yards two weeks in a row.  Interestingly, the yards were spread out -- they did not have a 1,000-yard rusher that season.

PPPS.  Trivia answer #2: The Houston Texans are at +8 turnover ratio for the year, including the Monday night win over the Jets.