Patriots Earn A Playoff Bye, Crushing Jets 38-3

The Patriots took care of business, beating the listless Jets 38-3 to secure the #2 playoff seed and a week off before their next game. The win was predictable; Tom Brady is now 14-2 against the Jets in regular-season home games. In two weeks, the Patriots will host the Texans, Ravens, or Chargers at Gillette Stadium.

There was very little to learn from the Jets game. Reports were that some New York players skipped meetings this week because they were sure the coach was going to be fired. They had checked out, and it showed in the game.

However, three trends about this Patriots team have emerged since mid-season.

1. Defensive improvement

Starting in week eight, the Pats gave up 68 points in two games to Tennessee and Miami (34ppg), and 78 points in the other seven games total (11ppg). And those seven games included tilts with the potent Packers and Steelers offensive teams, the Steelers game in Pittsburgh.

The secondary is playing much better, with rookie JC Jackson taking over the second corner position and linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts improving more than you could possible expect. Also, discipline within the scheme along the front four/five is much better than earlier in the year.

They still give up lots of yards, but are making teams settle for field goals and turning the ball over much more often. There won't be any bad offenses in the playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see if the Steelers game was poor play by Pittsburgh or better play by the Patriots defense.

2. Running the football

Excepting the losses to Tennessee and Miami, the Patriots averaged 153 rushing yards a game in the last nine contests. The offensive line has been dominant of late. And fullback James Develin has been a devastating blocker in multiple games.

It's true that this is partly out of necessity, because the passing attack has been mediocre. But it's also true that other teams knew the Patriots were going to run, and they still couldn't slow them down.

3. Diverse offensive attack

Over the years, the Patriots have succeed in the playoffs more often when they used a lot of receivers and runners on offense. That kind of diverse attack always served the well, because teams usually key on your best performers in the playoffs.

To that point, in four of their last five games, three or more rushers had double-digit yards on the ground. And in two of those games, they had five such rushers. It makes it tough to key on one player, and also means the Patriots can bring in fresh legs over an over to attack defenders who have been on the field all game long.

And in the last six games, the Pats had at least five players with multiple receptions in five of them. Again, this just makes it tough to key on one guy, giving opposing defenses fits and lots of players to cover.

In the past, teams would often double-team Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. And despite Gronk's lesser production this year, teams leave him singled-up at their own peril. But even if they only double Edelman, that leaves Gronk, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett (who has been coming on), James White, Rex Burkhead, and Cordarrelle Patterson in one-on-one coverage.

4. Quick hits

A. The Patriots have four non-offensive touchdowns this year, two on special teams and two on defense.

B. Despite a lot of consternation about the number of Patriots penalties, they are third-best in the league, committing less than 50 yards worth of penalties per game.

C. The kickoff returns are a real concern. The Jets average start after a kickoff was the 32 yard-line; not good.

D. The last time the Patriots clinched a playoff bye the last weekend of the season with an 11-5 record was the 2001 season. IIRC, they won the Super Bowl that year :D

Where does that leave us. We can all relax next weekend, as the next Patriots opponent takes a beating Wild Card Weekend. If you want to root for something, hope the Chargers win and the #6 seed loses (the Colts, Titans, and Steelers, depending on tonight's game). That would put division rival LA in Kansas City, which is always a tough draw in the playoffs.

Biggest ongoing concern: It's inconsistency. In 2019, penalties, poor kick coverage, missed field goals, bad defensive calls, and poor tackling have all cost the team games. It's amazing they have a playoff bye at all. But now that they do, they need to shore up those issues, because they aren't more talented than the other teams in the post-season.

Statistical oddity: The Pats gave up 34 points in one game against Miami, and 41 total points in their other five AFC East tilts.

Water-cooler wisdom: "After all the hand-wringing, the Pats are two wins away from the Super Bowl yet again."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  11-5 & 0-0!

Patriots Defense Dominates San Diego in 23-14 Victory

The Patriots spotted the Chargers a 14-3 lead last night, and then dominated the second half to score 20 straight and take the game 23-14. The win kept them ahead of the AFC pack for a potential first-round playoff bye. And since the Dolphins and Bills both lost, the Patriots need just one more win (or a tie) to claim their sixth straight AFC East title.

The Patriots defense, one big play by the special teams, and one big play by the offense really won this game. The defense stymied San Diego, giving up just 125 yards and four 3-and-outs in their last 9 drives of the game (an average of just 13.8 yards per drive). On special teams, Brandon Bolden sliced from the outside to block a punt, knocking the Chargers' punter out of the game and setting up the Patriots first touchdown. Lastly, Julian Edelman's catch-and-run 69-yard touchdown was a back-breaker for the Chargers, making it a two-score lead in a game where their offense had done nothing for the better part of 32 minutes of game time.

The defensive line did a great job mixing up blitz packages and stuffing the run. Seaver Siliga returned with a vengeance, man-handling blockers and forcing runs away from him, while totaling 3 tackles, half a sack, and a QB hit. And Alan Branch and Vince Wilfork helped form an impenetrable front line that freed up the outside pass rush to get to the San Diego QB.

On the outside, Rob Ninkovich had a terrific game, with 5 tackles (2 for a loss), 1 sack, and a QB hit. And several of his tackles were down the field, stopping the Chargers from converting third downs, and forcing punts. And Akeem Ayers continues to improve and prove his worth; he had 2 tackles, 1 QB hit, one pass defended, and his interception shut down San Diego's only decent penetration of the second half. These two forced Phillip Rivers up in the pocket, where he regularly got punished by the interior linemen and blitzing linebackers.

Speaking of linebackers, Jamie Collins is really coming into his own. Dont'a Hightower missed the game with a shoulder injury, so not only did Collins have to take on more playing responsibilities, he had to call the defenses and make adjustments, too. And he came through with flying colors: 9 tackles to lead the team (3 of those for losses), 2 sacks (for 18 yards), and 2 QB hits. He also helped cover San Diego's most dangerous weapon, tight end Antonio Gates, who had just 5 catches for just 34 yards and 1 first down.

Collins, special teamer Jonathan Casillas, and safety Patrick Chung did a great job faking the blitz and then falling back into coverage -- because they blitzed just enough to keep the Chargers guessing.  And the 'backers did a great job cleaning up any runs that reached them, although frankly that didn't happen all that often. Most of the run stuffing was done by the front four.

In the secondary, Darrelle Revis was Mister Shutdown yet again. He shadowed receiver Keenan Allen, who had just 2 catches for 3 yards, his lowest output of the season. (Between you and me, it's a joy to watch Revis play. He's much better than anyone who's come through here since Asante Samuel left.) At safety, stalwart Devin McCourty proved his worth again, helping hold the Chargers to three plays of 20+ yards -- just a week after giving up seven such plays against the Packers.

Opposite Revis, both Brandon Browner and Kyle Arrington struggled some and made some plays. Browner had a huge hit that caused an interception, but the play was called back, as Browner was called for a bogus penalty on the play. However, bogus or not, Browner gets so many penalties, he will never get the benefit of the doubt in a situation like that. He needs to clean up his play-to-play actions if he wants the officials to respect him.

Arrington had a silly tripping call and got beaten on some of the bigger plays in the game. But he also had an important tackle-for-loss on a running back and did a nice job making tackles after the catch (at least most of the time). He'll never be mistaken for Revis, but he never gets down and always makes receivers earn every yard.

On the opposite side of the ball, it was a struggle all night long. The offensive line gave up way too much pressure: 1 sack (7 yards), 9 tackles for a loss, and 5 QB hits. Nate Solder got schooled on the pass rush in the first half, though he did bounce back in that aspect in the second half. And the interior linemen couldn't give quarterback Tom Brady a clean pocket into which he could step and throw. Brady's lone interception came when San Diego hit him yet again, causing a short throw that was picked near the goal line.

Not to excuse the quarterback. That INT was unacceptable; he would have been better off eating the ball than throwing with so much pressure in his face. It was only second down, and he had a timeout in his pocket. Overall he ended up with decent stats: 28 of 44 (63.6%), 317 yards, 2 touchdowns, one INT, and a 90.8 QB rating. But that interception was a real problem. And not for nothing, but getting mad on the sideline doesn't help as much as not throwing the pick in the first place.

The receiving chores were top-heavy again, with tight end Rob Gronkowski (8 catches, 87 yards, 1 touchdown) and receiver Julian Edelman (8 catches, 171 yards, 1 touchdown) doing the bulk of the work. Between them, they accounted for more than half the teams' catches, and many of those receptions were against double- and triple-teams. San Diego's best strategy to stop Gronkowski was to force him to help in pass protection. And Edelman was honored with the best cornerback on many plays.

No other receivers did much, except for Brandon LaFell's fumble that was returned for a touchdown. I'd give him a semi-pass on that, since it was his first fumble of the year. But as the games get more and more important, ball-security becomes one of the critical stats that lead to victories. So LaFell and Brady have to take care of the ball going forward.

The running game as an afterthought in this one. LeGarrette Blount had 20 carries for 66 yards, but was slammed back most of the game. Shane Vereen didn't do much better, and Jonas Gray got off the bench for a few plays (2 carries, 9 yards). None of them did a particularly great job in pass protection, but the blitzes came from so many areas, the Patriots went with an empty backfield on most of their pass plays anyway.

As for the coaching, the defensive game plan worked extremely well. The Chargers scored 34 points the prior week against the Ravens, including 21 points in the fourth quarter. And the Patriots held the San Diego offense to just 7 points, and shut them out the entire second half. Kudos to defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and his assistants.

The offensive coaching has to get better, in my opinion. In the last two games, the Pats faced excellent defensive coordinators, and they came away with a total of 3 points in the first- and third-quarters of both games combined. In fact, for the season they have just 137 total points in those quarters for the year, versus 263 in the second- and fourth-quarters -- so they've scored just 34% of their points in those two halves of games.

This disparity speaks to not having the right plan entering the game, and getting out-adjusted at the half. Coordinator Josh McDaniels might be on the short list for another head coaching job, but until he leaves, he needs to self-scout better and have a better plan entering each half.

So where does that leave us? 10-3 and in prime position to have a playoff run that goes through Foxboro. The Dolphins come to town next week, and if the Patriots win, they will clinch the division title. They'll probably win the division no matter what; but a loss probably means road games in the playoffs, so that has to be avoided for the balance of the season.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots committed fewer penalties than their opponent in only three games this season -- and all three games were against the AFC West. (Trivia question: can you guess which AFC West opponent did not have more penalties than the Patriots when they played this year? Answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Homing in on another division title, and hoping for a #1 playoff seed. That Kansas City debacle seems like a long time ago."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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It should be no surprise that the Oakland Raiders were able to keep up with the Patriots when it comes to breaking the rules -- as each team notched six penalties in their September game.

Patriots Bow to Packers, 26-21

The Packers beat the Patriots in Green Bay, 26-21, dominating time-of-possession and clamping down on the Pats offense like no one has in weeks. The loss puts the Patriots in a tie with the Broncos, but they hold the tie-breaker, so New England retains first place in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills won, so the Pats' lead in the AFC East is down to two games. Next up is a trip to San Diego for a Sunday Nighter against the Chargers.

If you want to know how the Patriots lost, you could just re-read my analysis of their last playoff defeat, in the AFC Championship Game in January of this year (link). Both games played out the same: (1) defense gave up yards but forced strong offenses to take field goals; (2) Patriots offense played poorly in the first and third quarters; (3) the opponent racked up 35+ minutes of possession time; and (4) even though both games ended with close scores, neither was as competitive as that would indicate.

Given the similarities, and the fact that all the way back in September I predicted the Pats would lose this game, I'm not going to do a full-and-thorough breakdown. Unfortunately, the game went as I expected, so there isn't as much to go over.

But they say that there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. So here are some stats that tell the story of how the game went -- some that tell the truth, and some that lie like dogs.

Truthful statistics:

1. Green Bay possessed the ball for over 36 minutes, and the Patriots less than 24. The Patriots defense simply couldn't get off the field between the 20 yard lines. And when they had the Packers on the ropes, Rodgers usually bailed them out with a scramble for a first down or to extend the play for a big pass completion.

2. The Packers ran 70 plays and averaged 6.8 yards per play; while the Patriots ran just 54 plays and averaged 5.9 yards per play. The Packers had seven plays of 20+ yards, three of them for 30+ yards, and two of them for 40+ yards; whereas the Patriots had three plays of 20+ yards and zero plays longer than 30 yards.

Green Bay didn't attack down the field as much as they hit short routes that turned into longer plays or got big plays when the Patriots pass rush gave the QB too much time.

3. Patriots scored zero points in the first and third quarters. This is illustrative because it speaks to a poor offensive game plan to start, and then poor halftime adjustments. And that falls to the offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels -- he has to improve performance against good game-planning teams or the Patriots defense will have to bail him out.

Lying statistics:

1. The Patriots had three sacks in the game, and the Packers just one. But your eye tells you that Brady was under much more pressure than Rodgers, all day long. In fact, on one pass play Rodgers had 12 seconds to throw. 12 seconds is a lifetime; and I doubt Brady had more than 5 on any play all day long.

2. The Patriots went 3-3 in the Red Zone, scoring touchdowns on all three drives inside the Packers 20 yard line, but the Packers went 0-4 in the reverse situation. While it's nice to make your opponent take field goals, in the end you have to score enough of those TDs make it stand up. So this looks good on the stat sheet, but the offense didn't do enough with its opportunities to make it mean anything.

3. The Patriots didn't turn the ball over. This did them no good because they also got no turnovers from the Packers. A single turnover might have swung the game in their direction, but so long as the defense couldn't produce one, a draw in the turnover battle was meaningless.

4. The Patriots averaged 4.7 yards per rush. Problem was, they ran only 18 times and could not control the game that way. In the second half, the Packers were happy to have the Patriots run; they had the lead, so it helped them burn time off the clock.

Five Up:

1. Receiver Brandon LaFell caught two touchdowns on five receptions (38 yards). With Gronkowski and Edelman getting all the defensive attention, LaFell and tight end Tim Wright will continue to be targeted in the end zone.

2. Quarterback Tom Brady was under duress all day long, with outside rushers coming hard off the edge and free blitzers on far too many plays. But he ended up 22 of 35 (63%) for 245 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 102.7 QB rating. It just wasn't good enough when the opposing quarterback was Aaron Rodgers.

3. Cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner controlled the Packers' #1 and #2 receivers much more than they've been controlled recently. It wasn't perfect; Revis got beaten inside on Jordy Nelson's 45-yard touchdown, and Browner had two penalties that hurt the Pats in the first quarter.

4. Combined, linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower had 23 tackles, 2 sacks (for 15 yards), 3 tackles for a loss, one QB Hit, and a forced fumble. Hightower did get beaten on running plays, so there is still room to improve how he sheds blockers. But these two were a bright spot on a defense that had a lot of trouble getting off the field.

5. Running Back LeGarrette Blount had 10 carries for 58 yards (I'll let you do the math), and had a bunch of yards after first contact. It is fortunate the Blount fell into the Patriots lap at this time; with Bolden on the other list and Vereen a better third-down option, they needed knowledge of the offensive schemes and a veteran presence here. Blount brings both things to the table.

Five Down:

1. Wideout Danny Amendola was supposedly signed to replace Wes Welker. So what happened when Welker's actual replacement, Julian Edelman, left the game with an injury? The Patriots brought in Aaron Dobson instead. Amendola isn't doing much to earn his $5 million a year salary.

2. Corners Logan Ryan, Alfonzo Dennard, and Kyle Arrington were targeted and beaten multiple times. It might be inevitable that they end up on this list, after all, the Packers weren't going to take a chance with Revis or Browner. But still, these three were covering the third-, fourth-, and fifth-best receivers, and should have had better days.

3. The offensive line looked porous, especially when facing speed rushes from the outside. The best counter for outside pressure is running the ball, but they had just 36 yards on the ground in the first half (and couldn't rush in the second half, because they got behind).

Crowd noise still causes issues with their communication. And when they can't hear the snap count, they get beaten again and again on the outside. Probably time to recommit to the running game on the road, if only to protect the tackles. 

4. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski canNOT miss a field goal that would make it a two-point game late in the fourth quarter. Even if the Patriots had gotten the ball back and score a touchdown to win, he would be on this list. He simply can't miss a 47-yarder when the snap and hold were good. Unacceptable.

5. Running back Brandon Bolden had a touchdown, but too often he free-lanced on running plays and took a loss. That's probably why he rushed just once (for -1 yard) in the second half. Wasn't he listening when everyone praised Jonas Gray for running to the hole the play was designed for?

(Note: Rob Ninkovich escapes this list because even though he had a tough time in pass coverage, he filled in admirably as the Pats long-snapper for the week. He had only one bad snap, and that was not on Gostkowski's miss.)

So where does that leave us? 9-3 is still pretty good, and a game better than I had them at this point in the season. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In their three losses this season, the Patriots averaged just 7 points per second half. In their nine wins, they averaged 15.4 points per second half.

Statistical Similarities of the Week: When comparing yesterday's loss with the AFC Championship Game in Denver: the Patriots had exactly the same number of total yards (320), gave up the exact same number of points (26), on the exact same breakdown of scores (2 touchdowns, 4 field goals), were within a minute on time-of-possession (36:35 to 35:44), and scored exactly zero points in the first- and third-quarters of both games.

Please email me if you find a more similar game; to me they felt exactly the same.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "San Diego and KC are the only two teams in the AFC that can control the Pats defense like Green Bay did. We'll see how it goes with the Chargers next weekend; but let's hope they face neither of them in the playoffs."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-3!

Patriots Come Back, Then Survive, Winning 34-31 Again

For the second straight week, the Patriots spotted their opponent a double-digit lead and came back strong to win a 34-31 decision. Today it was the downtrodden Texans, and the win puts the Patriots at 9-3, three full games ahead of 6-6 Miami for the division lead with just four games to play. There are too many variables to clinch a division crown next week against the Cleveland Browns (in Foxboro), so their first chance will be the following game against the Dolphins.

After two prime-time games against the iron of their schedule, it was inevitable that the Patriots would have a letdown against the 2-9 Texans. That's one of the reasons I predicted before the season that the Pats would drop this game; and against a full-power Texans team they most certainly would have. But they hung in against these shell-of-their-former-selves Texans and once again their halftime adjustments were just about perfect -- leading to five consecutive scoring drives and a clock-killing possession.

The offensive line was under fire, with the Texans defense mixing in a nice array of blitzes and decent pressure with just their front four. But even in the face of that, the O-line gave up just one sack (six yards), and five QB hits. They also did a great job blocking on screen passes and on the two rushing touchdowns. Nate Solder gave up the one sack, but he was left alone to block two defenders, so it was probably running back Shane Vereen's fault for not picking up the extra man.

As for the running backs, here was the most important statistic: 0 fumbles. Stevan Ridley was a healthy scratch, replaced by LeGarrette Blount (12 carries, 44 yards, 1 touchdown), who looked like a college back with both hands on the ball at all times. Even blocking back James Develin kept both arms on it while taking four punishing hits at the goal line and eventually scoring. Vereen didn't carry the ball quite so carefully, but he ran well (10 for 38), and was instrumental in the passing game (5 catches, 37 yards, 1 touchdown). The team only averaged 3.3 yards a carry, but the lack of fumbles was more important than anything.

Quarterback Tom Brady had a mediocre first half: an interception, two poorly thrown short passes, and one miss on a long one that would have made it a 3-point game at the half. But after halftime he was terrific  -- 18 of 23 (78%), 263 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions, and a 128.8 QB rating. His touch passes and his long passes were much more accurate. And the windows into which he was throwing were tiny all game and got smaller as the game went on, making his second-half performance all the more impressive.

And the receivers were excellent, rounding into form now that they have an almost fully healthy crew. Julian Edelman (9 catches for 101 yards) continues to be the best former college QB playing receiver in recent memory. Seven of those nine catches went for first downs, and the combination of him and Danny Amendola (5 for 54) are a close approximation of Wes Welker. As mentioned, Vereen is vital to the passing game these days.

Two other factors of importance with the receivers:

First, the unstoppable force that is Rob Gronkowski is back. He had 6 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown, and that was against constant double- (and sometimes triple-) teaming. He also throws off blockers like they are annoying gnats, and if he stays healthy, he will be a nightmare matchup for every team in the playoffs.

Secondly, the Patriots now have two straight weeks with at least four receivers heavily involved in the offense (last week it was five, with Kenbrell Thompkins in the mix, too). This is much more diversity than the had the last few years as they worked toward the playoffs, and makes them vastly more difficult to defend. So keep an eye on how many receivers they have over 3 catches each week; that will tell you if Brady is able to spread the ball around, which will make them much more dangerous on offense.

The front seven on defense had a very bad game. On the defensive line, Chandler Jones (4 tackles) and Rob Ninkovich (4 tackles, 2 QB hits) had good days. They didn't have the stats, but held up well against outside runs and got decent push. In fact, they played so well that they moved inside a few times to replace Joe Vellano and Chris Jones, who both appear to be hitting the "rookie wall" at the same time. It's not all their fault, as the team didn't keep enough D-line depth to replace injured starters Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelley.

The linebackers were also complicit in the number of gashing inside runs. Brandon Spikes blitzed inside when the runs went outside, and chose the wrong gap on far too many plays. He ended up with five tackles, but when plays went away from him he looked disinterested, something I never thought I'd see from such an intense player. Perhaps he is injured. And Dont'a Hightower and Spikes ran into the same hole on plays, leaving the running backs to run free, and both of them are liabilities in pass coverage.

Rookie Jamie Collins has seen more playing time recently; he even started this week. And he is already their best pass-coverage linebacker. And Dane Fletcher has gone from special-teams contributor to a one of the better linebackers against pass and run, which is saying a lot given the draft position and talent level of his linebacking mates. It also says a lot about the state of the linebackers; depth and pass-coverage are big problems.

The secondary did a very good job, especially given that #1 corner Aqib Talib is playing injured and #2 corner Alfonzo Dennard was out with his injury. I haven't given rookie Logan Ryan enough praise -- he had another interception today (3rd of the season), 2 passes defended, and 3 tackles. He hasn't been beaten deep that I can remember, and without his play, the injuries would have cost the Patriots the last two games. But instead of the Patriots fighting for a playoff berth at 7-5, they are cruising toward a division crown at 9-3.

Additionally, safety play has been very good of late. Both Steve Gregory and Devin McCourty played deep against Peyton Manning and the Broncos, holding them to 4.1 yards per attempt. This week, Gregory moved up on running plays, and helped stuff them at important junctures of the second half. And McCourty conversely played deep, helping keep things in front of him so the Patriots couldn't lose the game on big plays. Complimentary play, with them doing what they need to do to win each week, and it worked perfectly the last two games.

As for special teams, they had another excellent week. Stephen Gostkowski hit two field goals of 50+ yards in the second half, including the game winner at the end. He missed a 55-yarder into a light wind in the first half, but when the money was on the line he hit the important kicks and booted kickoffs too long to be returned (which was big after the team gave up a 50-yard return in the first half). Punter Ryan Allen had a good average, and allowed only one return for six yards.

The coaching staff once again was outdone in the first half, but made the necessary adjustments to win in the second half. Among those adjustments, more quick passes, some screen passes, and more blitzes on defense. Although Josh McDaniels had his weekly "long pass on a third-and-short" -- but it didn't end up costing the team.

So where does that leave us? 9-3 and sitting in the second playoff spot in the AFC, at the moment. The Patriots incredible run continues, with them now guaranteed a winning record for the 13th straight season. (Trivia question #1: name the team that holds the record of 20 straight winning seasons... answer below.) Time to put this letdown game behind them and focus on the last four games. Another playoff bye is at hand, if they take care of business.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots won the last two games 34-31, the third time under Bill Belichick they won two consecutive games by the exact same score.  (Trivia Question #2, name either of the other times they did so... answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Thank goodness they've got four games to figure out how not to fall behind early."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  9-3!

PPS. Trivia answer #1:
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The Dallas Cowboys had winning seasons every year from 1966 - 1985.

PPPS. Trivia answer #2: In 2007, the Patriots beat the New York Jets and San Diego Chargers 38-14 in weeks 1 & 2, and in 2010, the Patriots beat the Baltimore Ravens and San Diego Chargers 23-20 in weeks 6 & 7.

Patriots Capitalize on Chargers Miscues, Win 35-21

The Patriots took another game from the fumbling Chargers yesterday, winning 35-21 over Norv Turner's mistake-ridden and unprepared team. They capitalized on four San Diego turnovers to turn a close game into a comfortable win. (Trivia question: when was the last time San Diego had four turnovers against the Patriots? Answer below.) The victory helped the Patriots keep pace with the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, all three tied at 2-0 atop the AFC East. And the division race will start to take shape with a showdown in Buffalo next week.


Tom Brady completed passes to five different receivers on the first drive, and didn't slow down much all afternoon. He ended the day 31 of 40 for 423 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 135.7 rating. He was sacked twice, once on a blown play by Rob Gronkowski and the other was a coverage sack. Other than that, the offensive line did a terrific job keeping him clean.


His favorite receiver was Deion Branch, who had 8 catches for 129 yards. Most importantly, his yards after the catch got first downs three or four times, and his two sideline grabs late in the second quarter allowed the Patriots to tack on three more points before the half. Wes Welker pitched in his usual workmanlike 7 for 81, and the seemingly unstoppable Aaron Hernandez notched 7 for 62, and 1 touchdown. Even Chad Ochocinco caught 2 for 45 yards, one a nice open field grab and the other a critical third-down conversion before the Hernandez touchdown.  The receivers and tight ends also did a great job blocking downfield for each other and in the running game.


(One parenthetical note: the referees don't seem to call pass interference on plays against Patriots receivers as quickly as they call it against the Patriots defense. Rob Gronkowski was clearly interfered with on a crucial third-down early in the second half, but the refs let it go and the Patriots had to punt. But they had no problem throwing a flag when faced with a similar situation involving Antonio Gates. They were both clearly interference; so it would be nice to see equal treatment. End of rant.)


The running game retains its "afterthought" status, but as a unit they averaged 4.0 yards a carry. BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to be the workhorse, with 17 carries, 70 yards, and 1 nice touchdown run. The Patriots lined up rookie tackle Nate Solder as a tight end, and ran around end a lot, with some success. Danny Woodhead was less effective than usual out of the shotgun, and as noted by my friend Al (The Foxboro Weather God), he always uses the cut-block on bigger players, which limits what Brady can do when the other team brings bigger blitzers. Kevin Faulk possesses the size to take on those blitzers, but he is still weeks away from playing.


Overall the offensive line played well, giving Brady time to survey the field and mostly keeping him clean. Gronkowski counts as a linemen in run blocking, and he regularly pancakes guys five yards downfield. Newcomer Brian Waters fit right in from the start, picking up the offense quickly and doing a nice job in pass protection and screen passes. Matt Light had a double-block on Green-Ellis' touchdown, and Dan Connolly hasn't blown a snap since taking over for the injured Dan Koppen at center. So much change and such good results... that earns line coach Dante Scarnecchia his first shout-out of the year.


No shout-out for defensive backs coach Josh Boyer, though. The Patriots secondary gave up too many easy yards, especially after cornerback Ras-I Dowling went to the sideline with an injury. Leigh Bodden looked like he was directing traffic, not playing defense. And Devin McCourty got out-schemed, out-jumped, and out-smarted on too many plays for the second straight week. If not for safety Sergio Brown's first interception and decent tackling by Brown and Patrick Chung, the entire game would have been an unmitigated disaster for the secondary.


The Chargers also exposed a critical lack of depth in the Patriots linebacking corps. Jerod Mayo led the team in tackles, forced a fumble and made an absolutely critical stop on fourth-and-goal at the Patriots 1 yard-line. Rob Ninkovich, a spot starter at OLB, recovered that fumble and got at least some pressure on the quarterback. However, the rest of the group could have taken the day off. Dane Fletcher is making progress but still learning, and Brandon Spikes looked absolutely lost. Coverage in the underneath zones was terrible, the secondary had three of the top four tacklers on the team, and the run defense consisted of tackles at the line or by Mayo -- or long gains stopped by the secondary.


Tough to run a 4-3 defense when you only play 4 or 5 linebackers. So they better call up someone from the practice squad or start getting production out of Spikes or playing time out of Jermaine Cunningham. Otherwise they'll be force to a 5-2 defense before you know it.


The defensive line held up well, though they did not get much pressure. This is to be expected -- until the secondary shows it can handle man-coverage when they blitz, there won't be any extra pass rushers, and so not as much pressure as you might expect with all the talent up front. But for this game, the lack of pressure did not bite them. The rotation of players keeps them fresh, and clogged up the running game, forcing San Diego to pass (not that that bothered the Chargers).


Vince Wilfork had the defensive highlight of the game, intercepting a screen pass and getting enough return yards to allow the Patriots to score a field goal late in the second half. Wilfork made a great read and tipped the ball to himself, and he looked pretty nimble for a lineman. The entire line had only 4 tackles and assisted on 3 others, but they held the line against a very good Chargers offense, and they are working their way into shape so their best players can be on the field together in crucial game situations later in the season.


Special teams specialists Matthew Slater and Tracy White had three big tackles between them. They seem to feed off each other's energy, topping one another whenever possible and celebrating big hits like rookies. And after last week's uncharacteristic missed field goal, Stephen Gostkowski was a perfect 2-2 this week, so if there was a problem with the long snapping it appears to be straightened out.


The biggest worry on special teams is the health of punter Zoltan Mesko. He hurt his left leg when one of his own players was blocked into him after a punt out of the end zone. And reportedly because of the injury, the Patriots eschewed a punt from their own 50 yard line, instead going for it on fourth-and-four -- and failing. Mesko's average is low, but that's mostly because he's been kicking to a short field. The Patriots could survive if he was out for a while, but he's the holder on field goals, so his absence would be doubly felt.


The offensive coaches should take a bow for their well-designed and executed plan. Obviously an offense ranked third in the league is pretty potent, and offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien deserves credit for that. As mentioned, the secondary looks like the least prepared part of the team, though with all the new faces it is a work in progress.


So where does that leave us? 2-0 and tied for the lead in the AFC East is a good place to be. The Patriots head to Buffalo for a divisional showdown with the surprising Bills next Sunday, and if history serves, they should leave with a win. The Bills generally play the Patriots tougher in Foxboro than in Buffalo, but then they usually aren't leading the league in scoring offense, so this game might be a different story.


Play of the Game: With apologies to Wilfork, it was Mayo's stop on fourth-and-goal. A Chargers touchdown there would have put them in the lead, and instead the Patriots drove it 99 yards and built a 10-point advantage that they never relinquished.


Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots scored on 99-yard touchdown drive for the second week in a row. I don't have the resources to find out the last time that happened in consecutive weeks; but I'm sure it's an oddity, because I can't remember even one 99-yard touchdown drive in the last decade.


Bonus Statistical Oddity: The 2011 Patriots are on place for 8 turnovers for the year... that would break the record for fewest turnovers in a 16-game season (10), set by the 2010 Patriots.


Double-bonus Statistical Oddity: There are four undefeated teams in the AFC right now, and three of them are in the AFC East.


Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Miami's offense isn't good and the Chargers always self-destruct early in the season. Let's see how the Patriots handle a real juggernaut... the always tough Buffalo Bills :)"


Keep the faith,


- Scott


PS. 2-0!


PPS. Trivia Answer: of course it was the last time they played -- the Patriots got four turnovers from the Chargers in a 23-20 victory last year.

Patriots 23, Chargers 20 (10/24/2010)

The Patriots and Chargers held a contest yesterday to see who wanted to win the game less -- and the Chargers came out on top at losing -- dropping a 23-20 decision in the comedy of errors that masqueraded as the CBS featured football game of the week.  The victory ties the 5-1 Patriots with the Jets for the AFC East lead (and in fact, for the best record in the NFL, along with Pittsburgh).  The team will undoubtedly crank up the welcome wagon for the return of Randy Moss next Sunday.  Insert Halloween puns here.

The Pats offense produced their lowest halftime yardage in almost seven years, and it was frustrating to watch.  In the first 30 minutes, Tom Brady completed 6 of 16 passes for 35 measly yards and was sacked three times for 24 yards.  The offense went 0 for 6 on third down conversions, was just 33% in the red zone, and ran for only 27 yards.  Overall the team committed six penalties, including on their first two kicks, had two really bad snaps on punts, and allowed the Chargers 146 total yards to their 38.

So how did they lead 13-3 at the half, you ask.  One word: turnovers.  San Diego receivers lost three fumbles, the first on a big hit, but the last two on the worst kind of mistakes you'll ever see at the NFL level.  Wide receiver Rich Goodman left the ball on the ground when he thought he was down by contact, but he'd never been touched, and safety James Sanders pounced on it.  Then running back Jacob Hester *thought* a throw was an incomplete pass, but it was a live ball because it was a lateral, and Rob Ninkovich scooped it up and returned it 63 yards.

The Patriots got 10 points after those two plays, and that was the obvious difference at the half.

The second half started well, with a 17-play, 79 yard drive for a New England touchdown.  When the Chargers could only muster a field goal in response, and the Pats answered with 3 points of their own, it looked like they'd coast to a win.  After all, a 23-6 lead should be safe with 11 minutes left in the game.  But not in this oddball affair.

San Diego marched down the field against a soft zone defense, scoring to make it 23-13 on a Philip Rivers touchdown pass.  Then the Patriots made a basic mistake of their own, letting the Chargers recover an onside kick when they *knew* it was coming.  (Note: they need to coach that better; two Patriots appeared to be waiting for the ball to go 10 yards, even though that requirement only applies to the kicking team.)  And wouldn't you know it, another Chargers touchdown to make it a 3-point game.

After a conventional kickoff, the Patriots went 4-and-out, opting to go for it on fourth-and-one -- and losing yard.  But give the Patriots defense credit, they made the Chargers try a long field goal (50 yards, after yet another stupid penalty), and the kick went off the upright and was no good.

As strange as the game was, it wasn't all bad.  Jerod Mayo is returning to his tackle-machine ways, and he couldn't do it without improved play from the D-line, which is doing a nice job keeping the other team's O-line off the Patriots linebackers.  Devin McCourty is still a bit of trick-or-treat, but he did a nice job on his interception, and had tight coverage about half the time.

Linebacker Jermaine Cunningham gets closer and closer to the QB every game, and did a nice job holding the edge against the run... most of the time.  And the off-set defensive line ploy, where Vince Wilfork plays left or right instead of on the nose, worked out very well most of the last two games.  Teams don't seem to be able to audible into a different play, and they end up running right at Vince more often than not -- and most of the time that's good for the Patriots.

The downside for the defense comes when you see Gary Guyton on the field (the tackle-missing machine), or when Kyle Arrington singles up against anyone.  There probably isn't a receiver in the league that can't beat Arrington one-on-one, so they need to give him safety or linebacker help.  And of course, seeing safety Pat Chung leave the game with an injury was not a good thing.

On offense, the line did not give Brady much time, and they couldn't run the ball.  The best drives they had involved lots of short passes and creative design to get Aaron Hernandez the ball.  But their thinness at running back and smallish offensive line came back to bite them in this game.

Thankfully, what didn't end up biting them were the bad snaps by Jake Ingram.  Ingram had a *great* first season (2009), missing on only one snap all year -- and that was on a field goal that Gostkowski made anyway.  But something was up yesterday.  Ingram had two high snaps on field goals, bounced three snaps to punter Zoltan Mesko, and added a holding call.  Here's hoping he got all of this out of his system in one game; because long snapping can be like putting in golf -- you never know when you might lose your touch, and it's tough to get it back.

The coaching was unremarkable; except for the two failed replay challenges and foolhardy decision to run wide on fourth-and-one.  Misdirection is your friend against a fast, aggressive defense, so a play-action fake or naked bootleg is a better bet in that situation.  Though a punt might have been good, too.

So where does that leave us?  As stated above, there are three teams at 5-1, and your Patriots are one of them.  The Vikings come to town next week, and even though they are 2-4 they are a dangerous team to play right now.  They are desperate for a win to keep up in a weak division, they have a stout defense and a dangerous offense.  Over/under on the number of Randy Moss costumes in the stands: 1,324... place your bets through legal channels only, please.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots won the last two games by the same score: 23-20 over the Ravens and Chargers.  They last pulled off that feat the first two weeks of the 2007 season, when they won 38-14 over the Jets and, believe it or not, the Chargers.

Bonus Oddity: The offensively challenged Titans and Raiders are the only two teams with more points scored than the Patriots.  Trivia question: why then are the Patriots still ranked as the #1 scoring offense in the league (answer below)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Why does Norv Turner still have a job?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  5-1!

PPS.  Trivia answer:

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Both the Titans and Raiders have played one more game than the Patriots; so New England's 29.5 points per game still rank #1.

Countdown to Camp 2010: Free Agents

The Patriots only had a mediocre free agency class.  No block-buster signings, and no creative trades.  And like most teams, they treated this off-season as if it had a salary cap when it did not, so they missed a chance to reload now for the next five years.

However, they kept their eyes on the prize and did the workman-like things that will keep them contenders for the foreseeable future.  Here are the unsexy moves they made to continue building on their success.

1.  They re-signed their important free agents.

This is an underrated and under appreciated part of free agency.  But when you are a very good or great team, it's usually more important to bring back your most important free agents than to make a splash with big name players from other teams.  The Pats signed four of their top five free agents, three on defense and one special teamer.

On defense, they brought back Vince Wilfork, Tully Banta-Cain, and Leigh Bodden.  In order, that was their best defensive lineman, best linebacker, and best defensive back from a year ago.  When free agency started, there was a lot of concern that their defense would be devastated if they lost two of those three players.  Well, they rolled up their sleeves and all three will play for the Patriots this year.

Everyone agrees that Wilfork is the perfect nose tackle to anchor the 3-4.  If he walked, the Pats had no viable replacement, so he was the most important signing of the off-season.  Banta-Cain showcased the ability to run down plays from behind and hold the edge against the run, both crucial skills for an OLB in the 3-4.  And Bodden was a reclamation project from Detroit, having never gotten to the playoffs with the perennially bad Lions.  All he did was tie for the team lead in interceptions and pick up the defense quickly enough to start 14 games.

The special teams free agent was kicker Stephen Gostkowski.  He might never get out of Adam Vinatieri's shadow here, but he is a solid kicker with a better career field goal percentage than Vinatieri and much longer kickoffs than Adam ever had.

The Patriots did lose one significant free agent, Jarvis Green bolted for the Denver Broncos.  And they also brought back other free agents (Stephen Neal and Kevin Faulk, for example).  But none of those player moves carry the significance of Wilfork, Banta-Cain, Bodden, and Gostkowski.

2.  They signed complimentary players to fill in crucial gaps.

Remember how Torry Holt torched the Patriots in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XXXVI, and seemingly every time he played against New England?  Well, now he'll be in the slot to start the season for the Patriots, filling in for Wes Welker as he returns from knee surgery, and perhaps teaching the young Pats receivers a thing or two about route running and getting separation.

As I wrote a few months back, Alge Crumpler will help with both of those things, too (link).  This is especially true with young tight ends in the fold and all of last year's tight ends gone.

And for good measure, they brought back David Patten, who knows the offense and will be a good outlet receiver when he's on the field.

None of these signings were earth-shattering, but all are low risk and Holt and Crumpler have the potential to be big pluses for the team.

3.  They cleared out some dead weight.

Adalius Thomas had worn out his welcome, having delivered 1.5 decent years and a lot of lack-luster performances beyond that.  He is joined by Chris Hanson, who couldn't out-punt *me*,  Chris Baker, who was better in the pre-season than the regular season, and Ben Watson, who never fulfilled the promise of his lofty draft position all those years ago.

I sort of wish they'd let Derrick Burgess go, too, but they must have plans for him since they brought him back for at least another year.  And I kind of wanted them to keep Shawn Springs, but with all the young talent in the secondary he was likely a goner anyway.

4.  They didn't lose ground to their competition.

In the AFC East, the Jets significantly weakened themselves at running back and cut one of their best O-linemen.  Their big improvement on defense is a cornerback with a sketchy reputation, and he replaces one who started on the best defense in the league last year.  The Dolphins lost as much as they gained on defense, and risked pretty much everything on WR Brandon Marshall.  But they gave him a long-term contract, which was a mistake if they want the maximum out of him this year.

As for the perennial AFC powers, the Steelers, Colts, and Chargers were characteristically quiet during free agency, choosing to re-sign their own players first, as the Patriots did.  The only AFC playoff team that improved itself significantly is the Baltimore Ravens, who brought in two good receivers (Donte Stallworth and Anquan Boldin) to go for it all before their aging defense gets too old.

Some might disagree with my assessment of the off-season, but please don't give me the overused line about how the Patriots are far behind these teams and have a lot of ground to make up.  The Pats were two plays away from being 12-4 last year (a Laurence Maroney fumble cost them the Colts game, and a terrible Brady pick cost them the second Miami game).  And if they had anything to play for the last week of the season, they could easily have gone 13-3.

The Jets and Dolphins are not close to the Patriots, and the Steelers, Colts, and Ravens are about on par with them.  So the Pats took action to remain competitive.  I wish they'd taken bold action to get much better than the other teams, but I don't run the team, so no use worrying about it now.  The only uncapped free agency we'll probably ever see is in the books, and the Pats gained some ground and most important of all, didn't lose any.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  0-0!

Patriots 10, Chargers 30 (10/12/2008)

Which term do you guys prefer: Jekyll-and-Hyde team; Elevator team (i.e. up-and-down); Trick-or-treat team (almost Halloween, after all); Windows team (works fine one week, crashes the next); or Heart-attack team? Well, whatever you call them, it's clear that you never know what you're going to get from the 2008 New England Patriots. Last week they won in every phase of the game and beat San Fran 30-21; this week San Diego won in every phase of the game and thrashed the Patriots 30-10. The loss leaves them one game behind the idle Bills and tied for second with the hated Jets. And with nemesis Denver coming to town next week, they might be .500 before they get better.

When you're part of the NFL pack instead of a leading light there isn't much difference between winning and losing. Last night's game was a perfect example. Halfway through the second quarter, the Pats settled for a field goal after a long pass to Randy Moss went incomplete. If the referees had called the obvious holding penalty on that play, they might have scored a touchdown instead and only been down 10-7. And on their first drive of the second half, the Patriots had a first and goal at the Chargers one yard-line, and poor play calling and execution left them with no points at all. Couple a score there with a touchdown instead of a field goal earlier, and it could have been 17-14. But instead the Chargers drove the length of the field and made it a 24-3 rout. Two plays sequences that could have changed the outcome of a game that was a laugher by the end -- both plays the Patriots would have made in the past.

And I don't mean to say the Patriots got robbed by the officials or were a play or two away from actually winning. The Chargers game plan, play calling, and execution of offense, defense, and special teams was far superior to the Patriots. The Patriots defense pretty much stopped the run, only to be beaten repeatedly for long passes. The Patriots offense was always in second- and third-and-long situations, and even their special teams were markedly outplayed by San Diego.

So who played well? Alright, alright... who didn't stink up the joint? Wes Welker, Kevin Faulk, Sammie Morris on offense. Jerod Mayo, Vince Wilfork on defense. Ellis Hobbs on special teams.

Who played just dreadfully? Randy Moss, Nick Kazcur, Dan Koppen on offense. Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison, Ellis Hobbs, James Sanders, Deltha O'Neal, Terrence Wheatley, Adalius Thomas on defense. No one on special teams.

What does that leave? 30 other players who were mediocre or not-truly-awful. And that won't get it done against any decent team in the league. With the talent the Patriots have, they might be able to just show up to get a winagainst the Rams, Seattle, and Oakland. But that leaves eight other games where the outcome will be in serious doubt and you just won't know how the Patriots are likely to do until it all gets started.

I haven't seen that kind of Patriots uncertainty since the fall of 2001, when Brady first started. But if Matt Cassel expects to get close to Brady's performance that year, he needs to do three things:

First, he needs to keep his eyes down the field when he scrambles. He's leaving too many plays on the field (he missed Wes Welker for about 15 yards when he scrambled for 3 yards in the third quarter). Second, he must be more accurate with long throws. Teams will be stacking up against the run and short throws, and with Randy Moss, those long passes will be there, so he has to hit them. And third, he needs to start calling audibles to get the Patriots out of bad plays. Too often I've seen teams put eight or nine men at the line to stop the run and the Patriots run right into it. If the coaches are telling him not to audible, it's time to take off the training wheels and see what he can do. In fact, he seemed to do better in the no-huddle, so it might be time to open the game with that.

As for the rest of the team; they got out-hustled, out-hit, out-coached, out-schemed, and out-played by San Diego. The good news is that it's only one game. The bad news is that the schedule is full of teams that are at least as good as the Chargers (Denver, Indy, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, etc.). So if the Patriots don't get more consistent effort and don't improve their preparation, it will soon be time to start talking about next year's draft.

So where does that leave us? One game behind in the division with historical nemesis Denver a week from tonight. The Patriots are 15-24 all time against the Broncos, so don't expect much help from them. Luckily, I won't be there to witness the likely carnage; but over the past few years, this up-coming tilt with Denver is exactly the kind of game they have won -- the game where no one (even me) gave them much of a chance.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: I don't want to think about the Patriots any more, but here's an odd statistic about the New York Giants. They are leading the league in time of possession (34:15 per game), but they have the second-FEWEST total plays from scrimmage (262). Go ahead, I dare you to explain *that* one.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Man, it sucks to be mediocre again."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 3-2!

Patriots 21, Chargers 12 (1/20/2008)

The San Diego Chargers whimpered into Foxboro yesterday, so scared of the cold that they stayed in the locker room rather than take their pre-game introductions. And they slinked out of Foxboro with a 21-12 loss to the only team in NFL history to go 18-0. The win puts the Patriots where they’ve been pointing to for 365 days: back in the Super Bowl after failing to win last year’s AFC Championship. It also puts them one win from history, as a victory in Super Bowl XXLII will cement their status as one of the greatest teams ever to play football.

The checklist for a San Diego win was simple: windy conditions to slow the passing game (check); pressure Tom Brady (check); win the turnover battle (check); dominate with the running game (no check); don’t get beaten by big plays (check); make big plays on special teams (semi-check); and keep it close in the second half (check). But five-and-a-half checkmarks out of seven wasn’t good enough against a team of gut-check players, and the Patriots ended up with a comfortable win over a depleted Chargers squad.

The Patriots defense was the real star of the game. They limited the Chargers to 25% on third-down conversions, and made them settle for field goals on three trips inside the Patriots ten yard-line. And all three times, it was a different player who stepped up to stop the drive: a broken up pass by Tedy Bruschi, a tackle short of a first down by Ellis Hobbs, and a tackle for a loss by Junior Seau. Big plays by big-time players in critical situations – exactly what the Patriots do, play after play and game after game, while other teams hope they can do it often enough to derail the Pats.

The secondary came up huge in this one, with great play by Ellis Hobbs (8 tackles, 1 pass defended, and an interception), Asante Samuel (3, 2, and 1 beautiful, “I want it more” interception), and Rodney Harrison (7 tackles, and a huge quarterback hit to force fourth-down late in the game). Some will criticize them for allowing a few easy passes, but their job is to stop the opposition from scoring quickly and getting off the field on third-down. And to those ends, they allowed no touchdowns and Chargers QB Philip Rivers was 4-10 for 47 yards and 1 sack on third down, with only 2 conversions all day.

The linebackers played very well, too. Bruschi had eight tackles, and Seau had that aforementioned stop and a sack and two quarterback hits to boot. Mike Vrabel was limited most of the game, but his pressure on Rivers forced an errant throw on Hobbs’ pick. And the team of linebackers did a great job setting the edge to stop outside runs. They stuffed the run when they needed to, and stopped the short passing game that you knew San Diego would use in windy conditions.

On the defensive line, Vince Wilfork proved his Pro Bowl-worthiness in this game. He was up against one of the better centers in the league, and Wilfork consistently got penetration to redirect or tackle runners. Jarvis Green also did a good job in semi-relief on the right side, and Richard Seymour had a good game, also. The pressure on Rivers was no up to par, and none of the linemen got sacks. But they held up against the run while allowing extra defenders to drop into coverage, and it showed with Rivers’ 46.1 quarterback rating.

As for the offense, three cheers for the running backs! Kevin Faulk was the leading receiver, with 8 catches for 82 yards and two big-time, very difficult catches for important third-down conversions on the final, game-icing drive. Laurence Maroney “pitched in” with 122 yards on 25 carries that were a nice mix of juking cutbacks, outside beauties, and bone-crunching plow-straight-aheads. Even oft-forgotten Heath Evans had two first-down conversions on two carries, and all three blocked very well in pass protection

As for the receivers, well, I have a few complaints. Wes Welker had two or three drops, Randy Moss had two drops, and Donte Stallworth didn’t do anything to break up Tom Brady’s first interception. Aside from that, all three did solid blocking duty in the running game, and made catches when they needed to be made. Of course, part of the problem was the pressure on Brady, who had 3 interceptions and his second-lowest quarterback rating of the year (66.4). But with all that, Brady completed 67% of his passes and threw for two touchdowns. But suffice it to say that San Diego treats him as roughly as Miami does every year, and he’s probably glad to have the Chargers game in the rear-view mirror.

There was nothing remarkable to mention about special teams, except that the San Diego kicker appears to have a very weak leg but had four field goals under very difficult conditions. His kickoffs landed at the ten yard-line with the wind, and he had one land at the 30 yard-line into the wind – all of which gave the Patriots a short field too often.

So where does that leave us? Waiting 13 more days for the Super Bowl, I suppose. They appear to be healthy heading into the final “big game” of the season, and they beat the Giants in New York on the last weekend of the year. But that game was close (38-35), so don’t expect a walk-over. I’ll send a preview sometime next week, and might send along a little something prior to that – just to tide you over :)

Statistical Oddity of the Week (in three parts): It’s not often that a quarterback has more interceptions (3) than he had incompletions (2) the previous week. And I’d guess that you will never see a quarterback have 5.5-times as many incomplete passes one week (11) than he had the previous week (2). Bonus Oddity: Laurence Maroney had exactly the same number of yards (122) in each of the Patriots playoff wins this year.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “What was Norv Turner was thinking? Maybe he was saving that special play to go for it on fourth down in the Pro Bowl, I don’t know.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

2-0!
&
18-0!

Preview of Patriots vs. Chargers (1/17/2008)

To be honest, I wanted the Colts. Not because I'm a "you gotta play the best teams" or "it just won't be the same if we don't play the Colts" yahoo. I thought the Patriots would have whipped the Colts good. Indy without Dwight Freeney scares me a lot less than San Diego without Phillip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson. The reason is what I've been saying for weeks now; no team can hang with the Patriots unless they blitz the quarterback and play press-coverage on the receivers. The Eagles, Ravens, and Giants did just that and all of them almost beat the Patriots. And even though Indy is willing to blitz some, they never deviate from their "two-deep shell," and therefore, the Patriots would have scored at will against them.

The Chargers are a different animal. They often blitz and play tight coverage, and they led the NFL with 48 turnovers on the year (an average of 3 per game). Their cornerbacks are young and athletic, which means they are unpredictable -- which could be good or bad for the Patriots. Mind you, I'm not saying the Chargers will win, only that they present more matchup problems and less certainty than the Colts. Perhaps the Patriots defense will have more luck against the Chargers offense than they would have had against the Colts offense, but that is far from assured. And I suppose I should be glad there won't be any last-minute Peyton Manning drives to win the game. But no matter what Manning did, I was certain the Patriots would beat Indy. It's less of a sure thing against the Chargers.

The Patriots won a regular season game against the Chargers, 38-14 on September 16 at Foxboro. And as is my standard practice in such cases, I will try to decide whether or not enough has changed since that game to give the Chargers a chance to make up the 24-point deficit and possibly win the game.

Point #1. Turnover turn-around.

After starting the year causing fewer than 2 turnovers a game, the Chargers had 32 turnovers in their last 10 games (3.2 per game), twice notching 6 turnovers against teams that made the playoffs. All those forced turnovers coincided with their resurgence as a force in the AFC West -- where their 8-2 record in their last 10 contests won them the division by 4 full games.

Part of the improvement in turnovers was the emergence of cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who led the NFL with ten interceptions (and had one last week). His excellent play allowed the team to use longtime starter Drayton Florence to cover the opposition's third-best receiver, and that gave their blitzing linebackers more time to get to the quarterback.

This week more than any other, the Patriots must protect the ball. San Diego is back to their ball-hawking ways, and the Chargers' best chance to win is to force take-aways and turn them into points. They had three of them last week against the Colts; just another day at the office for them.

Point #2. Offensive no more.

The Chargers offense started out slowly, averaging 17 points in the first 4 games. However, since then, they are averaging 29 points a game, and perhaps more importantly, they haven't scored fewer than 17 points in any of their last 12 games. You can make numbers do a lot of things, but a 70% increase in offensive production looks pretty good no matter how you slice it.

Sometimes, the San Diego offense appears to be from another era, one where the running game was king. Their running game is very good (seventh in yards per game and yards per rush, and tied for second in rushing touchdowns), and they have one of the best tight ends in football, All-Pro Antonio Gates. But their wide receivers are sub-par, and their quarterback has been erratic -- all of which creates a lot of pressure to run the ball very well and use the tight end in the passing game.

To have any chance to win, the Chargers will have to run the ball effectively and get Gates involved in the passing game. Because if the Patriots can stuff the run, the Chargers offense could grind to a halt when receivers can't get open or drop passes. But there are problems with the running game and the tight end (read on for details)...

Point #3. Injuries are (a big) part of the game.

The Chargers have a lot of injuries to deal with. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson is nursing a bruised knee that kept him out of the fourth quarter last week. Quarterback Philip Rivers has not one, but two knee strains (and I'm sure he'd have three if he had a third knee). And Gates is nursing a dislocated big toe, which limited him to 2 catches for 28 yards last week.

Rivers was never that mobile to begin with, but it can only help the Patriots that his plant leg is now hurting, which could cause trouble with accuracy and distance on his throws. The Chargers have no one on their roster to replace Gates, so if he can't go, it will be a big blow to their chances at an upset. And in a game where the Chargers must run the ball, they are fortunate to have Michael Turner (4.5 yards a carry in the regular season) to step in. However, the Patriots have more trouble with small, shifty runners like Tomlinson -- so if he can't go, it should be easier for the Patriots to stop Turner, who is more of a north-and-south runner.

Quick Points:

A) The weather on Sunday could actually favor the Chargers. Sure, it will be cold, but if the forecast for wind is correct, it could slow the Patriots passing game and make interceptions more likely.

B) If Billy Volek plays instead of Philip Rivers, don't be celebrating too early. Some of the closest games the 2007 Patriots played were against backup quarterbacks:

- A.J. Feeley (Eagles) pushed them to the limit before losing 31-28.
- Kyle Boller (Ravens) also pushed them to the limit before losing 27-24.
- Backups Chad Pennington (Jets) and Trent Edwards (Bills) performed much better than the starters in games against the Patriots this year.

C) Watch the kickoff return game. San Diego was third in the league with 25.5 yards per return, and they fumbled no kickoffs for the season. If the Patriots are forced to have Chad Jackson return kicks, this could be an area of great advantage for the Chargers.

Conclusion:

All that said, between injuries, playing their third game, the shocking change in weather they face (60-degrees in San Diego, 16-degrees in Foxboro), and the overall health of the Patriots -- I just don't see San Diego winning this game. If it's windy and/or they can get some turnovers, they could pull the upset. But the local 11 are too talented and too focused to let this one get away from them. 361 days ago, they lost to the Colts in the franchise's first failure in the AFC Championship Game. And for every one of those days, they have been working to get back to this game and win it. Their off-season moves were designed to prepare them to beat anyone who opposed them, and so far, it's worked out as planned.

It might be closer than people think, but there's just as much chance that it will be a blowout. I'd say the former; with the final score something like 34-24.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Chargers forced more turnovers in their last 10 games (32) than the Patriots did all year (31).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Repeat after me: 'All I want for Christmas is just two more wins, just two more wins, just two more wins!'"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

1-0!
&
17-0!