Patriots Keep Rolling With 21-13 Win Over Chargers

Three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Brady beats Rivers. The Pats topped the Chargers 21-13 yesterday, winning their fourth straight game to land atop the AFC East at the halfway mark yet again. And in this game, Tom Brady moved to 7-0 all-time against Philip Rivers, whose only win over the Pats is against Matt Cassel. Next up is the bye week, so smoke 'em if you got 'em.

This game looked worrisome at times, but in the end, the Chargers shot themselves in the foot more often than the Patriots did. Los Angeles missed a field goal, gave up a horrible safety on a botched punt return, wiped out their own touchdown on a penalty, didn't drive inside the Patriots 20 yard line the entire game, and mishandled the clock on their final drive with a chance to tie the game.

All the Patriots did was drop some passes and miss two field goals. So on balance, the less self-destructive team won. It looked a lot like a pre-bye week game for the Pats.

The good news on offense is that the Patriots attack is always better when they force defenders to protect against multiple receivers and types of runners. Here are the numbers for their top five receivers and top two runners yesterday.

Receivers:
Rex Burkhead = 7 catches for 68 yards
James White = 5 for 85
Chris Hogan = 5 for 60
Rob Gronkowski = 5 for 57
Brandin Cooks = 5 for 26
Runners:
Dion Lewis = 15 carries for 44 yards
Mike Gillislee = 11 carries for 34 yards

It wasn't perfect yesterday; there were multiple drops and QB Tom Brady was under far too much pressure for much of the game (three sacks and seven QB hits). But other teams will have a very tough time defending the Patriots if they continue to feature that kind of diversified attack. There's a reason the Pats held the ball almost 37 minutes -- the Chargers couldn't figure out how to get off the field.

On defense, the news was mixed but leaning toward the positive. They blew one play and it went for an 87-yard touchdown run. Aside from that, they got off the field on third downs (30% conversions by L.A.), and they held the Chargers to 57% completions on just 30 attempts. Outside contain is still a problem against the run, as is the inside defense when Malcom Brown isn't in there (he missed yesterday's game ).

But linebackers Elandon Roberts, Kyle Van Noy, and David Harris all played their best games of the year. And Johnson Bademosi is rounding into a good corner, which will help with depth once starters Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore return from injuries. Not saying the defense is about to become a juggernaut; but they held their last four opponents to 14, 17, 7, and 13 points.

There was a miscommunication between corner Malcolm Butler and safety Devin McCourty on a touchdown pass, so there is obviously there is work to do. And I still think the lack of talent at linebacker will come back to haunt them if they make the playoffs. But there are encouraging signs.

And then there is special teams. First the good news; Brandon King and Jonathan Jones combined on a tackle in the end zone that scored a safety. And Jones almost stole another punt when he pushed a Chargers blocker into his own man trying for a fair catch.

However, kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed two field goals, although they were well-rounded failures: each from 43 yards, each from a different hashmark, and each from a different end of the field. He visited the locker room in the middle of the first half, but there was no follow-up on that from the broadcast crew -- so we don't know if his problems were injury-related.

But I'll suggest for the umpteenth time that they replace the special teams coach with a real special teams coach. The current guy (Joe Judge) was promoted from within and he appears to be out of his depth in trying to get Gostkowski right again. None of his misses have cost the team this year. But things are magnified in the playoffs; lest we forget they lost an AFC Championship Game four seasons ago partially because Gostkowski missed an extra point.

The coaching was decent in this game. Josh McDaniels abandoned the run too quickly a few times in the game, but fortunately the Pats defense held the Chargers down and the Patriots got back to it. The runs went mostly up the middle, excellent game-planning to take away the outside rush. Just wish they'd stuck with it more consistently.

And linebackers coach Brian Flores (last year's Coach Of The Year, at least in this space) is doing a good job making a more cohesive unit out of new and returning players. It isn't perfect yet -- Cassius Marsh still needs help, he gave up the fourth-down scramble last week and this week the 87-yard touchdown was run outside to his contain this week. But if last year is any indication, the linebackers will be solid by year's end.

Also, take a bow whomever is coaching Bademosi; quite the out-of-nowhere story this season.

So where does that leave us? 6-2 and ahead in the entire AFC is a good place to be. Oh sure, the Chiefs are 6-2 and hold the tiebreaker, but stay calm -- Andy Reid is the coach in KC; he'll be at least a game behind the Patriots by the end of the season.

Non-Brady MVP: Running back Rex Burkhead gets it this week, for his complimentary game of running and catching the ball well.

Statistical Oddity: To start the season, the Patriots gave up 300+ yards passing to the first six passers they faced. Since then, they gave up less than 300 yards to Matt Ryan, last year's MVP, and Philip Rivers, currently 10th in all-time passing yardage in NFL history.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: The Patriots held L.A. to just 52 offensive plays, their lowest total of the season. That is becoming quite a habit with the Pats (hello Atlanta Falcons!). (Trivia question: Against one team this calendar year, the Patriots failed to run more offensive plays in two separate games, can you name the team?)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe the Pats will make a trade by Tuesday so we'll have something to talk about during the bye week."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-2!

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The Houston Texans tied for number of offensive plays in last year's playoffs (69-69) and ran more than the Patriots in their game earlier this season (71-64).

Patriots Outclass Falcons, 23-7

A funny thing happened on the way to 4-3, the Patriots detoured to 5-2 instead on the strength of a 23-7 beatdown of the Falcons at Gillette Stadium. The win put them atop the AFC East, a half-game ahead of the surprising Buffalo Bills (4-2). Next up is another surprise team, the 3-4 L.A. Chargers, who just shutout the Broncos 21-0.

Sunday night's game was easily the Patriots' best overall performance of the season. Their defense shut down the Atlanta offense for almost 56 minutes. The offense was diverse and efficient. And special teams was great in punt and kickoff coverage and even threw in a blocked field goal!

All three units were true team efforts, no single player really stood out over the unit play. Quarterback Tom Brady had a 121.2 rating, but only dropped back to pass 30 time. He ended up 21 of 29 for an efficient 249 yards and two touchdowns. The only throw that really stood out was his back-shoulder toss to Brandin Cooks; otherwise he simply carved up the Atlanta zone and waited out their man coverages.

The running backs split carries, with Deon Lewis carrying most of the load (13 rushes for 76 yards) and Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead dividing most of the other reps. Lewis and Burkhead impressed the most, the former with quick-hits and a great burst at the second level, and the latter for his speed to the hole and decent running for his first real plays of the season.

The receivers shared the load pretty evenly, as you can see from the receiving numbers: James White (5 catches), Chris Hogan (4), Cooks (4), Danny Amendola (3), and Rob Gronkowski (3) all contributed while none dominated. Although Gronkowski and Hogan get special mention for their blocking in the running attack.

And finally the offensive line started messy in pass protection but shored things up as the game wore on. They were very good run blocking, carving out enough room for 162 yards and a 4.5 average yards per carry. Nate Solder is still struggling, but the rest of the line looked very good, especially the interior.

All three levels of the defense were interesting to watch. The defensive line stuffed what is a good Falcons running attack, limiting them to 30 yards in the first half. Emerging star Trey Flowers continues to make impact plays (6 tackles and a huge penetration on the Falcons fourth-down at the goal line). And rookies Adam Butler and Deatrich Wise Jr. made good plays and held up well, while veteran Lawrence Guy gets better every week.

At linebacker, Cassius Marsh played better in pass coverage and Kyle Van Noy led the team in tackles (7); in fact, he made the tackle on the aforementioned fourth-down stuff at the goal line. If Dont'a Hightower can stay healthy, and Van Noy and Marsh continue to up their game every week, it's more and more likely the Patriots can do something in the playoffs without adding a linebacker via trade.

(Remember that last year I named linebackers coach Brian Flores the Coach of the Year. He molded his 2016 unit with mediocre talent and into a strength by year's end. If he can do that again, he should get serious consideration around the league for a defensive coordinator position this off-season.)

But the secondary might be most interesting of all. Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore were out with injuries, so Malcolm Butler and Johnson Bademosi had to step up against much bigger receivers. And they did! With an assist from safety Patrick Chung, they slowed down the Falcons and made big plays on third- and fourth-downs to stop drives before they got started. Bademosi and Butler were also among the team leaders in tackles, with seven and six, respectively.

When you consider that Jonathan Jones was their second-best corner to start the season, this unit could be a real strength when Rowe and Gilmore return. In fact, Gilmore could find himself riding the pine if he isn't careful, even though he is the highest-paid player on the team.

On special teams, Marsh blocked a field goal, making up for his lost outside contain on fourth-and-eight a few plays earlier. Jones had a great rush another field goal attempt, which might have influenced the kicker to hurry... and the kick doinked off the upright and was no-good. Stephen Gostkowski's kickoffs were great, as was the coverage.

The only downer was a Ryan Allen long punt that bounced into the end zone instead of checking up inside the ten yard line. But his other kicks were high enough to force fair catches by Atlanta.

The game was a coaching mismatch, but mostly because Atlanta stunk up the joint. Going for a fourth-down late in the first half was foolish, as was the slow-developing "jet sweep" called near the goal line (it was stuffed for a five-yard loss). But it wasn't just bad coaching by the Falcons; the Patriots had a great plan to stuff the run game and on offense they mixed pass and very effectively.

So where does that leave us? 5-2 is not a bad place to be, especially when you have only two convincing wins (New Orleans and Atlanta) and could easily be 2-5 or 3-4. This week will be an interesting match up, as the Chargers have the talent and some new life of late to give the Pats trouble.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Trey Flowers, for anchoring the defensive line and making plays that didn't show up on the stat sheet but were crucial to shutting out the Falcons for almost the entire game.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Both of the winless teams this season have winning records against the Patriots all-time. San Francisco and Cleveland are both 0-7 this year, but the 49ers are 8-5 all time against the Patriots and the Browns are 12-11. (Trivia question: Can you name the only NFL team that has never beaten the Patriots? Answer below.)

Bonus Statistical Oddity: In Super Bowl LI, the Falcons last scored at about 8:30pm Eastern Standard Time. Last night they first scored at 11:15pm EST. So after they took a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, they went 80:20 of game time -- or 261+ days, or 6,266.75 hours -- before scoring again.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Pats played a great game; they would have beaten just about anyone last night."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-2!

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The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-7 all-time against the Patriots.

Patriots Outlast Jets 24-17

The Patriots used the mid-game to build a two score lead and held on for a 24-17 win over the Jets in New Jersey. The win put the Pats in first place, a half-game ahead of the 3-2 Bills (who are on a bye). Next up is a Super Bowl rematch against the Falcons at Gillette stadium next Sunday night.

Given my recent absence, I'll try to cover as much as I can from the past few weeks and this game. But suffice it to say there were some signs of progress this week.

For the first time in a while the Patriots defense made good adjustments during the game to shut down an offense that was gashing them. They did the same against Houston, then almost gave the game away late. Yesterday they adjusted and held the Jets to three points on their last eight drives.

The secondary got burned early but came back to clamp down on receivers in the second and third quarters. And this was without big-money free agent Stephon Gilmore or Eric Rowe (insert Nickelback joke here), both out with injuries. Malcolm Butler and Johnson Bademosi weren't perfect, but they mostly improved as the game progressed.

(Although they were helped by New York's curious decision to attack Butler instead of journeyman Bademosi, whom they left alone for most of the day. Perhaps the Patriots kept safety help to Bademosi's side. Not that you'd know it from the broadcast, they didn't have a single illuminating replay the entire game.)

In the first five weeks of the season, New York averaged 111.5 yards per game rushing and 4.5 yards per carry. But Matt Patricia's defense held them to 74 and 3.1 respectively. Good tackling technique and gap control led to five short-yardage stuffs in the last 45 minutes of the game, three of them giving the ball back to the Patriots.

Penalties were down for a change. The Patriots had 12 accepted penalties against Tampa Bay, and they are among the league leaders in most penalties. However, they had just six accepted flags against the Jets. And they didn't have those stupid penalties we'd seen the first quarter of the season: back-to-back roughing the passer calls, back-to-back running into the kicker calls, and calls for too many men on the field or lining up incorrectly. I'm hopeful this is the start of a trend where they get back to disciplined football and don't beat themselves.

The offensive rhythm looked a lot better, with Brady throwing "on time" more often and hitting receivers in stride so they could do damage after the catch. He wasn't perfect, perhaps owing to his left shoulder injury. But he made the plays necessary to keep the team moving and score points. (And between us, a few of his under thrown passes were due to being hit, but don't tell anyone else.)

Brady was protected better in this game. But I can't chalk that up to the O-line; it looked like they were chipping the outside rush with backs and tight ends. That's the wise thing to do, but it doesn't speak to much progress of the O-line, though they were a bit better this week, especially in the running game.

Rob Gronkowski is still a difference-maker, and as I've noted before, he is vastly more effective when the team runs the ball well. The team wouldn't have won without his two touchdowns. And Brandon Cooks looks to be completely in-sync with Brady, as is Chris Hogan. But Phillip Dorsett looks totally useless; he doesn't even fight for the ball when it's about to be intercepted.

One downside from the game was another field goal missed by Stephen Gostkowski (47 yards). His defenders say he is one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history. But he is not clutch, and he can't be counted on in a big spot. And I reiterate my suggestion from last year: bring in a real special teams coach. Gostkowski thrived under Scott O'Brien, who was a long-time ST coach. Current coach Joe Judge might be in over his head trying to figure out what ails Gostkowski.

So where does that leave us? All in all a good win, but still plenty of room for improvement. 4-2 is not a bad spot to be, especially when you could easily be 2-4. Next week against Atlanta could be a big problem if Gilmore isn't healthy.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: The running game was key this week, so it goes to Deon Lewis, who played a lot more because Mike Gillislee fumbled and was benched for a while.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots offensive has notched an impressive 106.9 passer rating. But their defense has allowed a dreadful 104.4 passer rating. (Trivia question: name the year and the team that gave up the highest defensive passer rating in an NFL season... answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The games against Atlanta, Denver, and Oakland will tell the us a lot more than the Jets game."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-2!

PPS. Trivia answer:

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The 2014 New Orleans Saints allowed a defensive passer rating of 116.2. That's even worse than the 2008 Lions, who went 0-16... blech!

Patriots Complete Astonishing Comeback To Win Super Bowl 51

The Patriots actually shocked the world last night, stunning everyone with a 25-point comeback to force overtime, where they won Super Bowl LI 34-28. It was the greatest comeback in NFL playoff history; no team had ever overcome a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit in the postseason. The victory gives the Patriots five world championships under the leadership of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady -- now the undisputed greatest of all time in their respective fields.

(Trivia question: the 25-point deficit was the largest comeback win of Brady's career. Can you name the team, quarterback, and number of points that was his largest comeback before yesterday? Answer below.)

The first three quarters were forgettable for Pats fans. Atlanta led 28-3 with 18 minutes left, in the game and a lot of that was aided-and-abetted by bad Patriots plays. In the first half, it was LeGarrette Blount's first fumble in 16 games, Tom Brady's first playoff pick-six, piss-poor run defense, and bad play-calling in the red zone. In the third quarter, it was dropped passes, blown coverages, and two special teams mistakes by Stephen Gostkowski (more on those later).

Not to take anything away from Atlanta. Their offensive execution was masterful, as coordinator Kyle Shannahan's plan slowly picked apart the Pats D. They got chunk plays running and passing, and some absolutely sick catches by Julio Jones. They executed well and showed great poise for the first three quarters.

But everything changed in the fourth quarter. After a third-quarter touchdown, the Pats entered the final 15 minutes down by 19. And all they did was score on every drive, blank the Falcons, convert two two-point tries, and double-up time of possession as they methodically worked closer and closer until they tied the game. And in overtime, they won the coin toss and scored yet another touchdown to claim the win

In that fourth quarter, Brady cemented his status as the greatest quarterback to play the game. In the final 19 minutes (including overtime), he went 22 of 29 (77.2%) for 248 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, a QB rating of 112.4, and four straight scoring drives.

Running back James White was the man in the second half, after both Blount and Dion Lewis struggled to contribute. White caught a Super Bowl record 14 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown, and he scored the team's last two touchdowns and added a two-point conversion. He was everything Blount and Lewis weren't: poised, effective, gutty, and clutch.

Among receivers, rookie Malcolm Mitchell proved the indispensable man. He caught five passes in the second half, four of them for important first downs. He and White became Brady's go-to guys as the Falcons doubled Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett. Bennett and Danny Amendola had a few big catches, especially Amendola's important fourth-down conversion on the Pats first touchdown drive, and his quick-out for another TD.

But the catch of the game was a tipped-ball-dive-forward-as-defenders-fall-all-around-you-and-grab-it-just-before-it-touches-the-field-and-control-it-among-defender's-feet-over-the-middle 23-yard catch by Edelman. This was the Pats version of the David Tyree and/or Jermaine Kerse catches of the past.

The offensive line picked a really bad time to have their worst game of the year. Atlanta had five sacks (24 yards), and officially eight QB hits (though they listed it at 15 during the broadcast). The Falcons didn't do any special blitzes, they just overpowered the Pats line, pushing them around in both the pass and run game.

Brady ended up with a SB record for yards and completions, but that was despite the line, not because of them. The best protection Brady had all day was throwing the ball quickly or tiring out the D-line with long drives. Oh, and the running game was mediocre, again testament to how poorly the O-line played.

The real defensive star of this game was coach Matt Patricia (more on him later). But among players, it had to be defensive lineman Trey Flowers, who tied for the team lead with six tackles and had 2.5 sacks (for 26.5 yards in losses), two tackles for loss, and five QB hits all on his own. The rest of the line was invisible on the stat sheet, but Alan Branch played well stuffing the inside runs.

Linebacker Dont'a Hightower turned in the defensive play of the game, a strip-sack that gave the Patriots the ball and life in the game. The Patriots scored a touchdown on that possession, making it a one-score game. Other than that, it was a very weak game for the LBs. Elandon Roberts was out of position or overmatched much of the game and Rob Ninkovich couldn't cover the backs out of the backfield. The entire linebacking corps totaled seven tackles; a paltry number for a Patriots defense.

The defensive backs were a real mess for much of the game. But you can't disrespect them too much; they had 25 of the team's 44 tackles. Logan Ryan mostly covered Julio Jones and by game's end, Malcolm Butler had Taylor Gabriel. But the Pats changed coverage multiple times throughout the game, looking for something that worked. They never really shut down Atlanta. Every DB got beaten at some point; though each of them made important plays, too. And with the changes in coverage it's just too difficult to judge who played well without additional film study.

Special teams saw its share of ups and downs. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed an extra point and then screwed up a perfectly good onside kick. But he also booted two perfect kickoffs late in the game to pin the Falcons deep and give the Patriots a chance to comeback. In all, he forced five returns and the Falcons averaged just 8.4 yards per return. Oh, and that also speaks very well of the coverage teams.

The coaches had two stars and one underwhelming performance. First, head coach Bill Belichick deserves a lot of credit for not panicking down by 25 points. He just kept his players focused on the task ahead and put his team in position to make progress toward a win.

On defense, Patricia's charges kickstarted the comeback with the strip-sack, and they held the Falcons scoreless for the final 23+ minutes. His defenses always get stingier as the game goes on, and it's a puzzlement why he doesn't get more head-coaching buzz than offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

Speaking of McDaniels, he had a poor game for three quarters. His last play-call of the first half was just plain strange (screen pass to Bennett with 11-seconds on the clock). And once again, he got schooled for most of the game by a seasoned NFL defensive coordinator. McDaniels is good at putting together a game plan, but if his first plan doesn't work, it takes him too long to adjust to Plan B.

One last note on the coaching, the Patriots are not Super Bowl champs today without a big mistake by the Falcons coaches. Atlanta had the ball on the Pats 22 yard-line with a first down and 4:40 left in the game. If they take a knee three times, it either runs the clock or takes all of the Pats timeouts. And then they can kick a field goal for a two-score lead.

It's head coaching malpractice to pass the ball there. But that's what they did; leading to a 12-yard sack, a holding call, and eventually, a punt back to the Pats with a one-score lead.

So where does that leave us? Super Bowl Champs, natch! The off-season will start soon enough, but for now, this was a great game that will merit much discussion. And the other discussions will be about where Brady, Belichick, and the Patriots dynasty rank among the all-time greats. In other words, it'll be your favorite week ever!

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: James White, who merited serious MVP consideration.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots are the Super Bowl team to run more than twice as many plays as their opponent. Their 93-46 ratio is the most lopsided in Super Bowl history.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The NFL should stop hating on the Pats and put them in the Super Bowl every year. Every game they play there is great!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 17-2 & 3-0!

PPS. Trivia answer: Three years ago, I was at Gillette Stadium when the Patriots trailed the Peyton Manning-led Broncos 24-0 at halftime. A Denver fan said at the time: "No lead is safe; you guys have God playing quarterback." His hyperbole was not out of line -- the Patriots mounted a furious comeback to force overtime where they won the game. Until last night, that was the biggest comeback of Brady's career.

Patriots Super Bowl Preview

So it's finally here, Super Bowl LI, the game to end all games... until next year. Your Patriots take on the Atlanta Falcons in what promises to be a high-scoring affair.

Usually in this space you'd see an analysis of the last game the two teams played, with the most important question being if enough had changed to change the outcome. However, the Pats and Falcons last met on the field in September of 2013 -- 28 months ago. And that game will have little bearing on this one; most of the starters are gone on both teams, and the Falcons have an entirely new coaching staff.

So here is a breakdown of what to expect when each team has the ball, key players in each phase of the game, some additional factors, and a completely useless prediction.

When the Patriots have the ball

The Patriots offense can do whatever it wants. Atlanta ranked 11th in yards allowed per pass, 22nd in defensive passer rating, 25th in yards allowed per rush, and were a surprising 27th in points allowed. It doesn't look like they'll be stopping the Patriots third-ranked scoring offense very often.

More interesting is how the Patriots will likely attack on offense. Some expect a heavy dose of heavy formations, with extra offensive linemen and tight ends and running back LeGarrette Blount. Others predict a balance of run-pass, with James White and Dion Lewis running from the spread formation while Julian Edelman and Martellus Bennett work the short passing zones.

Atlanta's speed in the secondary makes long passes dangerous, unless they can draw up the safeties in run support. So expect Patriots to play it safe in the first quarter to avoid an early turnover. They will switch between the two ball-control strategies until they see what Falcons head coach Dan Quinn does on defense.

Once they see how Atlanta plays it, the Pats will go to whatever gives them the best match-ups against that defense. That is when the game really begins.

Key Patriots Player: running back Dion Lewis or running back LeGarrette Blount
Key Falcons Player: linebacker Vic Beasley

When the Falcons have the ball

Atlanta's offense is exactly the kind has historically given Patriots fits: a balanced attack with multiple weapons. The Falcons run the ball effectively, quarterback Matt Ryan can use short or long passes to three or four talented receivers who can turn a short pass into a long touchdown in the blink of an eye.

Atlanta led the league in points per game, average yards per pass, QB rating, and passes of 40+ yards. They have three gifted receivers who are hard to cover, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Taylor Gabriel. Their two-back-attack keeps their running backs fresh, and Ryan is the presumptive 2016 MVP.

Despite the two-man running attack, Atlanta won't likely run much on the Patriots. New England ranked eighth in yards allowed per rush, and their disciplined defense will force the cutback runners to hesitate so the rest of the defense can rally to the ball.

Atlanta will make hay with throws over the middle to their second- and third-best receivers. The Patriots usually neutralize the other team's best weapon (in this case, Jones), so Sanu and Gabriel will have to beat man-coverage or find holes in the zone quickly.

The Patriots will likely play safety Patrick Chung close to the line to help with the run and cover the tight end and/or running backs. His ability to diagnose run/pass quickly will be put to the test, as the defense could be undermanned against either tactic if he is out of position.

Key Falcons Player: receiver Mohamed Sanu
Key Patriots Player: safety Patrick Chung

Quick Hits

A) The Patriots own a marked advantage kick coverage. The Falcons allowed almost twice as many yards per punt return (9.6 to 5.0) on the season. And they gave up over three yards of field position to the Pats on kickoffs (average opponent starting yard-line: 22.6 vs.19.3).

B) Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski did have an off year, so Atlanta's Matt Bryant outperformed him in field goals and extra points.

C) In the NFC Championship Game, the Falcons had two false start penalties, a defensive offsides, and a botched snap. Those are all signs the moment was a bit to big for them; and the spotlight will be even brighter this Sunday.

D) In 2016, the Patriots gave up the fewest first-quarter points in the NFL (1.9 average), whereas the Falcons scored the second-most first-quarter points (8.6). It'll be strength vs. strength for the first 15 minutes.

E) A close game late favors the Patriots: they gave up an average of 5.1 points per fourth quarter (5th) and Atlanta gave up an average of 9.4 points per fourth quarter (31st).

Prediction

Neither team will stop the other cold, but the Patriots defense is better-suited to stop Atlanta at least some of the time. And if the Pats score on 75% of their possessions and the Falcons score on only 60%, that's a win for the Patriots.

Additionally, turnovers are key in the postseason, and Atlanta's younger, less experienced players are more likely to give the ball away.

Patriots win: 34-23.

Enjoy the game!

- Scott

PS. 16-2 & 2-0!

Patriots Out-class Buccaneers, 23-3

The Patriots simply out-classed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, spotting them an early 3 points and then scoring the last 23 for a 20-point win.  The victory helped the Patriots keep pace with the 3-0 Dolphins, who beat the Falcons today.  And speaking of the Falcons, the Patriots travel to Atlanta next week to take them on; their first difficult opponent of the season.

This game looked to be in doubt for the first 15 minutes.  The Bucs put together drives of 55 and 51 yards, but missed one field goal so they held only a 3-0 lead.  Meanwhile the Patriots punted after "drives" of 4, 5, and 3 plays each, and their offense looked completely out of sync.  Fortunately Tampa Bay didn't cash in enough of those early opportunities, and when the Pats stopped them on fourth down, Brady drove the team 66 yards for their first touchdown, and then followed it with 62-yard drive for another 7.

At that point, it was game over.  The Bucs had decent plans on offense and defense to start the game.  But once the Patriots made their adjustments, the Buccaneers had nothing to fall back on, and their offensive ineptitude led to more short drives for points by the Patriots.

A great example was the Patriots interception.  Tampa needed to get to the locker room and regroup (they were getting the ball to start the second half).  But QB Josh Freeman made a bad decision and threw the ball right to Aqib Talib with 11 seconds to go int he first half, and the Patriots used two plays to get into field goal range and make it a two-touchdown lead at the half.

The Patriots defense played very well, especially after the first quarter.  Solid pressure by Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones (1 sack, 2 QB hits), with occasional help from Tommy Kelly (0.5 sacks, 2 QB hits).   Vince Wilfork sees almost constant double-teaming, which should free Kelly and the rest to make plays -- and they are making them for sure.

Linebacker Jerod Mayo had a sack and led the team with nine tackles.  And running mate Brandon Spikes continues his excellent run from last year, guessing run/pass correctly about 80% of the time.  He doesn't always make the tackle (though he had seven yesterday), but his instincts (and obvious film study) help him blow up plays before they even get started.  Dont'a Hightower didn't have huge stats, but he holds the edge well against the run, and his pass coverage is probably the best of any Patriots linebacker.

In the secondary, Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington, and Aqib Talib never let up the pressure on opposing receivers.  They were beaten regularly early in the game, with Arrington actually moving outside for a few series (not sure if Dennard was injured).  But they just kept hitting, pushing, rerouting, and all-around annoying the receivers, until some of them left the game with injuries and others dropped passes because they heard footsteps.  Oh, and all three made nice defensive plays with the ball in the air (again, excepting the first quarter).

And please consider it a compliment to the safeties that there isn't much to say about them.  The Patriots are not giving up long passes, the safeties have only been beaten deep twice all season (both times in the Bills game).  And the run support has been good enough, although that leads to this point...

The run defense remains suspect, giving up at least 4 yards a carry for the third consecutive game, 4.4 this time.  (Trivia question: Who was the Patriots head coach the last time the Pats gave up at least 4 YPC in each of their first three games in a season -- answer below.)  Yesterday it was more yards between the tackles, something that's plagued them to this point.  And frankly, these performances came against teams with subpar quarterbacks, so the Patriots knew all three teams would run the ball a lot.  Yet the run defense got repeatedly gashed on quick traps and inside runs in all three contests.  Not a problem so far, but something to watch as the year goes on.

On offense, the young receivers who took so much heat the last few games got their acts together in this one.  Aaron Dobson: 10 targets, 7 catches, 52 yards, and 5 first downs (including a penalty he drew and a fourth-down conversion).  Kenbrell Thompkins: 7 targets, 3 catches, 41 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a late-game first-down (he also had two drops).  But most important of all, they ran the correct routes and were on the same page as Tom Brady, which is critical to the success of this offense.

Julian Edelman contributed his usual 7 catches for 44 yards, and even Michael Hoomanawaui had 2 for 31 yards.  And after a first quarter where Brady held the ball longer than usual, the offense got in sync and it was the quick-pass attack recognizable to anyone who watches the team on a regular basis.  Brady ended up 25-of-36, 225 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 92.9 QB rating.  Not stellar, but the offense is still a work in progress.

The running game was actually quite good, making use of all three running backs and their diverse skill sets.  Stevan Ridley (11 rushes for 35 yards) ran most often early in the game, spelled from time to time by the faster Brandon Bolden (3 for 51).  Later in the game, LeGarrette  Blount came in for what looked like mop-up duty, but he got 14 carries for 65 yards (and a long of 23).  A nicely balanced attack, with large holes on some plays and very few runs for a loss.

The offensive line did a passable job.  The early pressure really was more on Brady for holding the ball.  But there were a few miscues up front, with Dan Connolly blowing it one play (and giving up a sack), and some apparent mis-communication on the right side between Connolly and Marcus Cannon (in for Sebastian Vollmer for a few series).  Overall very nice work, but the Bucs proved once again that the Patriots O-line is vulnerable to physical, attacking defensive lines.

Kicker Stephen Gostkowski had a great game.  His kickoffs were never returned (and all but one went through the end zone), and he was a perfect 3-3 on field goals, including a career-long-tying 53-yarder to end the first half.  And though punter Ryan Allen's first punt was a shank job, he recovered nicely to have one downed inside the 20 and a 42.7 yard average.

The coaches showed their skills with adjustments in the first half.  The score was only 3-0, but Tampa Bay was dominating play and time of possession.  However, when the Patriots made their adjustments, they scored on five of the next six possessions, and that was ball game.  With Rob Gronkowski likely back next week, it will take some of the pressure off the young receivers (and Edelman).  No telling what they'll do next with the offense.

So where does that leave us?  3-0 and tied for first place in the division, that's where.  The Pats head to Atlanta for a big game next Sunday night.  This will be a much better indicator of where they are at this point.  If Gronkowski returns, look for him and Brady to play very well -- they both do so when the bright lights are on them.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  In the last 12 months, Tampa Bay traded Aqib Talib and LeGarrette Blount to the Patriots.  Yesterday Talib got the Patriots lone turnover, and Blount was the Patriots leading rusher.  That has to be an oddity -- when has that ever happened in the NFL?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:  "Gronk's return couldn't come at a better time.  Now that the warm-up acts are done, let's bring on the real season."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  3-0!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
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20 years ago, in Bill Parcells' first year with the Patriots, the Pats gave up the following numbers in their first three games of the 1993 season:
Buffalo = 42 rushes for 177 yards (4.2)
Detroit = 44 for 186 (4.2)
Seattle = 43 for 209 (4.9)

Patriots Improved at Tight End

According to ESPN.com (link), the Patriots signed former Atlanta and Tennessee tight end, Alge Crumpler.  And while the ESPN story makes it sound like a lateral move from last year (he had similar stats to Benjamin Watson), there are three reasons to think that Crumpler is a significant improvement for 2010.

First off, Crumpler has much better skills than Watson ever will.  There's no comparison between their ball skills; Crumpler always make the catch, Watson is a crap-shoot on every throw.  And you can tell just by watching him that Alge knows how to get open in the middle of the field and, more importantly, in the end zone.  The last Patriots tight end to use his size effectively to create separation in the passing game was Ben Coates, and that was 10 years ago.  Crumpler's no Coates, but Alge plays off defensive contact and leverages his size to make space in tight quarters between linebackers and in the end zone.

Secondly, it's important to consider that Crumpler had similar numbers to Watson the last few years, but with the likes of Vince Young, Michael Vick, and Joey Harrington (blech!) throwing to him.  Think what he might do if he gets in sync with Hall of Famer to be Tom Brady, and with Randy Moss to stretch the field, too.  If you recall, there was a guy named Wes Welker who practically doubled his production just by coming to the Patriots.  Not saying that Crumpler is about to lead the NFL in receiving like Welker.  But if he connects well with Brady, his talent could make him vastly more productive than any Patriots tight end since the aforementioned Ben Coates.

And finally, Crumpler stays on the field; Watson unfortunately did not.  Watson made it through only one full season in his career, and he started a mere 24 games the last three years.  Crumpler has six 16-game slates on his resume, and the number of starts by season over his career is vastly better than Watson.  To make the point directly, here is a comparison of Crumpler and Watson in percentage of career games played and started:

Games played:

Crumpler 97% (139 of 144)

Watson 73% (71 of 96)

Games started:

Crumpler 87% (122 of 144)

Watson 49% (47 of 96)

So Crumpler has better ball skills and get-open-ability, will probably increase his production with Tom Brady throwing to him, and can be counted on to play most every game every season.  And when you consider that the loss of Wes Welker puts more pressure on Patriots tight ends for production, the signing of Alge Crumpler is seems like a win-win-win.

All in all, a great move by the Patriots.  Here's hoping Crumpler works well without a position coach :)

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  0-0!

Patriots 26, Falcons 10 (9/27/2009)

I'm going to make this short and sweet, because I predicted pretty much what happened in my 2009 Season Preview. And the only thing more boring than writing it again is you having to *read* it again.

The Patriots beat the Falcons 26-10 yesterday, with an offense that ran the ball well and started finding its bearings in the second half, coupled with a defense that slowed the Falcons running game and confused their second-year QB. At 2-1, the Pats are a game out of first place in the AFC East.

The Falcons scored on two of their first three drives and then the Patriots adjusted and it was lights out for the game. Mostly it was the Patriots defense doing what it needed to do, two examples being the Brandon McGowan's forced fumble and Adalius Thomas' tackle for a loss -- both of which killed drives.

Overall the defense played very well, shutting down an excellent running attack even after Vince Wilfork went out, which when combined with Jerod Mayo's absence could have been devastating. But Mike Wright and a combination of the two rookies (Myron Pryor and Ron Brace) and some linebacker patching held the Falcons to 58 yards, about *half* their average yards.

The most encouraging defensive news of the day was how the secondary played, because Atlanta can be very dangerous through the air. They gave up some of those third-and-seven plays early, but they are consistently breaking up about 30 - 35% of the passes, showing very good closing speed and some nice combination coverages that probably confuse both the QB and receiver. I like the way Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden are picking things up, and even though Jonathan Wilhite didn't play yesterday, I think he will continue his progress toward becoming Asante Samuel II. And the surprise of the year might be Brandon McGowan, who bring a lot to this defense, including the huge forced fumble on Sunday.

The Falcons don't blitz much, so they were the perfect cure for what ailed the offense, giving Tom Brady time to rebuild coordination with the receivers. Wes Welker was out again, so it fell to Randy Moss and... well a bunch of other guys. Moss had ten catches, and the other seven receivers each had three catches or fewer. Brady did overthrow Moss and Ben Watson, so he wasn't perfect. But it's nice to see him get back to spreading the ball around. BTW, even Joey Galloway seems to be running the correct routes now, though he had at least two big drops on Sunday. Maybe he'll round into form; but I'm not holding my breath.

The Falcons are also undersized on defense, so I don't read a lot into the 104 yard day for Fred Taylor. One thing you can read into it is that Laurence Maroney might be edging closer to the bench, due to injury and ineffectiveness. Taylor is the perfect fit, giving them the option to go five-wide with their base offense, keep him in the backfield in the shotgun, power run, or stretch a run to the outside where he can use his elusiveness. It's sort of like having Kevin Faulk on the field all game without having to wear Faulk out. So don't be surprised if you see #39 on the bench more and more this year.

And of course, there is no running or passing game without the offensive line. They did a much better job this week, plowing ahead on running plays and keeping Brady upright almost the entire game. The official stats have Brady being hit twice and not sacked at all. Tackles Matt Light and Nick Kazcur were outstanding in pushing the speed rushers past Brady, and with 4.3 yards per rush it's clear the O-line had a great day. One last note: the offensive line did not commit a single penalty on the day -- a big change from the previous week in New York.

The biggest concern on offense is that the Patriots continue to struggle in the red zone -- going 1-for-5 yesterday, and now 4-for-13 on the year. The hope is that as Brady and the receivers develop better timing and coordination they will get touchdowns rather than incompletions and field goals. But they were 3-for-5 the first week, which makes them 1-for-8 the last two games, so they might be headed in the wrong direction on that. Perhaps better play-calling might help. No offense to a team with no offensive coordinator -- just saying :)

Special teams are a growing concern. They helped win the first game with a timely fumble recovery, and Gostkowski is his usual self in field goals and kickoffs. But the punting has only been okay, and the coverage teams are playing poorly. The first returns of the second half this week and last week featured porous coverage and the kicker making the tackle. And in the Jets game the return led to the only touchdown; this week the defense bailed them out with a stop.

With a new special teams coach and lots of new personnel, it can take time to gel. But if they can't cover kickoffs consistently, they should have Gostkowski kick higher/shorter so the players can get down to cover it. Giving the opposition the ball at the 30 every time is preferable to making them start at the 20 half the time and the 40-or-beyond the other half.

And as for the coaching, it was another nice job of confusing a young quarterback. The offensive play-calling was a bit better and they were flagged only twice on the day (for ten yards). So just about everything that went wrong against the Jets was fixed this week. Hope that translates into having things go well again next week.

So where does that leave us? At 2-1, the Patriots are a game behind the New York Jets in the AFC East. And they face another blitz-crazy team this week, when the Baltimore Ravens come to Foxboro. However, young quarterbacks who have played more than eight or nine games usually struggle against the Patriots, because Belichick has plenty of film to study to break them down. Also, the Ravens had a division game last week and have another one after the Patriots, so this would be a classic "trap" game for them. Only time will tell, but it should be interesting.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Two guys with bad backs had great days. The first guy, Randy Moss, nabbed 10 catches for 116 yards. The second guy, my friend Al, attended the game with a bad back, but was still able to be the Weather God -- commanding that there be only slight rain for very little of the game, which is exactly what happened, despite forecasts of up to two inches of rain. (Note: If you have an outdoor celebration and need to bright sunshine, let me know and I'll pass along your request to the Weather God himself.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Did you see Fred Taylor on Sunday? Yep... might be time to sell that #39 jersey." (Note: say it with a wry smile.)

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-1!

Patriots 31, Falcons 28 (10/9/2005)

A few more games like that and I’ll be checking into a Meditation clinic or a hash bar. I mean, will these guys win an easy game this season? It’s another week of heart-stopping action for your New England Patriots: up by 14, then up by 1, then up by 15, then tied, then a last second field goal to beat Atlanta 31-28. The injured players didn’t return (for either team), and the win didn’t come easy, but it does put them into first place in their division. That’s something, right?

The Patriots offense was a big-play machine. Brady threw long passes to Deion Branch (51 yards), Daniel Graham (45 twice), Ben Watson (33), and Bethel Johnson (55), and he threw in a few 15 – 30 yarders for good measure. The Pats QB averaged a whopping 12.2 yards a pass, his best performance since… anyone want to guess… his best performance since… since… the fourth start of his career against the Colts, early in 2001 (12.5 yards a pass). And he did it yesterday under constant pressure and while taking solid shots half the time he dropped back.

The O-line did a fair job in pass protection, but earned their keep run blocking, with special assists from the Daniel Graham, David Givens, and Deion Branch, all of whom helped seal the corner for Corey Dillon to break outside. The Pats running game sprang to life, ripping some big gains and ending the day with 141 yards, all the while setting up the play-action fakes that allowed that 12.2 yards a pass. With both the running and passing games in sync, the Patriots could have blown the Falcons out if not for a tipped-ball INT and some poor officiating (I’ll get to that later).

The Patriots defense was obviously thrown by the absence of Michael Vick. He was injured last week, but was expected to play; right up until the night before. As often happens, his replacement benefited from having very little playing time, thus the Patriots could not study film and game plan for him. In a similar situation last year, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers hammered the Pats in the regular season. The replacement QB (Matt Schaub) played well, hitting some deep seam patterns and making the Patriots pay for loading up against the run. In fact, I daresay the Patriots would have had an easier time with Vick, because at least they knew what he’d bring to the game and they had planned for it all week. And Vick is not a strong pocket passer.

Given all the uncertainty, and the continued injury status of the Patriots secondary (three of four Game 1 starters were out) and the fact that Richard Seymour didn’t play either – I think all in all the defense held up as well as could be expected. They played 4-3 most of the game, and held the league’s #1 rushing team to 116 yards (85 less than their season average coming in). Jarvis Green was serviceable in relief of Seymour, Willie McGinest was okay, and oft-beaten Duane Starks even made some nice plays. Hey, someone out there in Patriots uniforms held Atlanta to 5 of 13 third down conversions and less than 28 minutes of possession time.

But let’s face facts; if the Atlanta receivers didn’t drop 5 easy passes, we might have seen a different outcome. The secondary needs to get healthy and do it fast. Tyrone Poole and Randall Gay returned to practice last week, and they need at least one of them back on the field so they can move Duane Starks or Asante Samuel (who seems to have lost his way) to nickel back. And Monty Beisel and Chad Brown need to start earning their keep – no more excuses, guys, just make the plays in front of you. Next week in Denver, the Pats will face a balanced offense, which is what gave them fits against the Chargers, and if the Pats secondary is still hurtin’ and their linebackers don’t improve, it could be a long day.

As for the officials (I promised I’d get back to them), this was probably the worst officiated game I’ve seen in a few years. They blew at least two calls in Atlanta’s favor: on Atlanta’s first scoring drive, a bogus holding call changed an third and goal from the 8 yard line to a first and goal at the 2; and on their second one, they neglected to call an intentional grounding penalty just before Atlanta attempted their first field goal (a 33-yarder that would have been at least 40 yards with the penalty). They also messed up a simple out-of-bounds call that would have given Atlanta a chance to score with about 7:30 left in the game; and then had the audacity to claim it could not be reviewed because of a seemingly instantaneous whistle. Inadvertent whistle I’ve heard of, but I can’t see how an official can see a foot out of bounds and blow the whistle in the third-of-a-second the player needed to fall forward for the first down. Oh, and that’s not to mention the multiple holding calls they let Atlanta get away with on offense or the ticky-tack interference calls against the Pats. Just a bad day, I guess. Maybe they’ve got some injuries that we don’t know about – I just hope they get things straightened out before the Pats see this crew again.

The Pats actually had a great day on special teams. They hit so hard the Atlanta punt returner decided to fair catch twice when he didn’t have to and committed a personal foul on a third punt. The Falcons have very good return teams, but the Pats coverage was very good almost all the time. And then there was Adam Vinatieri, who came through in the clutch again. 19 game winners in his career – he has to be a hall of famer at this point, just has to be.

So where does that leave us? Well, Miami lost to Buffalo, which puts the Patriots alone atop the division at 3-2. They’ve got a tough game in Denver next week, and then their bye week. Again, I have an office mate who’s a Bronco fan, so I will not predict a Patriots loss next week. Just don’t be the mortgage on the Pats this week. Oh, and hope for Tyrone Poole, Randall Gay, and most of all, Richard Seymour to return for the game. But until then, enjoy the view from the top. The Patriots cannot enter their bye week at anything worse than 3-3, and the schedule is much, much easier after that.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Still too many penalties, still too many big rushing plays, still too many injuries, still not creating enough turnovers. Still got Brady, Belichick, and Vinatieri. I guess that’s enough.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 3-2!