Patriots Dropped By Ravens, 28-13

The Patriots playoff run ended abruptly (don't they all) with a 28-13 loss at Gillette Stadium last night.  The loss sent the Baltimore Ravens to the Super Bowl, the Patriots to do some soul-searching and preparation for the off-season, and their fans to wonder how it went so wrong when it looked all set up for them.  There was a lot of what Terrell Suggs called "arrogance" among fans -- many predictions of double-digit victory and rematches with the 49ers.  But all the talk was for naught.

Last November, the Patriots traded for corner Aqib Talib, and much of the local media wondered: "Can one player make that much difference for this awful secondary?"  If the last three quarters of the AFC Championship Game are any indication. the answer is an obvious, "Yes!"  Talib was on the field for the first two drives on Sunday, and the Ravens were scoreless before he left with an injury.  After that, Baltimore spent the entire second half exploiting matchups with nickel back Marquice Cole, and they outscored the Patriots 28-10 the rest of the way.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco took a few series to figure it out, and he spent one series targeting Kyle Arrington.  But after Arrington almost intercepted two passes, you could literally see Flacco come up under center and look for Cole, and then throw to the receiver he was covering.  And just like that, the Patriots defense that was so well-suited to stopping long pass plays, was suddenly very vulnerable to them.  The last three-quarters of the game looked a lot like the Patriots early season losses, unable to stop the long pass, and when they went with more DBs, unable to stop the run.  A lose-lose.

However, on this count, the biggest fault of all rests with the New England coaching staff.  Once the situation was obvious to everyone watching at home and in the stands, it was incumbent upon the coaches to do something to rectify it.  My advice would have been to move Devin McCourty to cornerback and take your chances with Tavon Wilson at safety.  Not a great option, but once Cole was beaten for the fifth time in a row, it was time to try something new.  But no such adjustment was made, and the Ravens looked unstoppable for most of the second half.

And to those defensive problems, add in a ton of missed offensive opportunities in the 30 minutes.  Here is how their first half drives went:

1. Welker dropped a perfect pass on third-and-two, and they punted
2. Brady called a no-huddle run that was stuffed on third-and-two, and they kicked a field goal
3. Dropped pass by Lloyd on third-and-nine, and they punted from the Baltimore 35
4. Third-and-two (again!) missed pass to Lloyd, and they punted from the Baltimore 45
5. Touchdown drive
6. Blown clock management and a field goal instead of a TD from the Baltimore 10

Six drives got 13 points, but it should have been at minimum 19, and could have been 27.  No team scores every time, but bad plays on third down and lack of guts to go for it on fourth down kept the game too close at 13-7.  They went for most every fourth down inside the opponent 40 all year, so why the passivity in Ravens territory this time?  And maybe Gisele was right -- her husband can't throw *and* catch the ball.  Not that Brady was great in this game, but in the first half he made enough plays to hold more than a six-point lead, if his receivers could hold onto the ball.

Even with all that, with the problems on defense and the issues on offense, the Patriots still could have won the game, obviously, leading at the half.  But while Baltimore was exploiting the Patriots defense, the Patriots offense sputtered, and finally they began to turn the ball over.  They punted from the Baltimore 34 yard line on their first drive, and then went 3-and-out on their second one -- shades of the first half.

And then, on a promising drive to start the fourth quarter, down by only eight points, Stevan Ridley took a vicious hit and fumbled.  The Ravens promptly abused the Patriots defense again, to post a 28-13 lead.  However, those were the last points they would score, and with 11:13 left in the game, a two-score lead wasn't insurmountable.  But the last three drives went: turned over on downs, tipped-ball interception, and interception.  Ball game.

That, my friends is how you lose a playoff game.  Didn't go for it on offense when they'd done it all year.  No pressure on QB Joe Flacco, and when your secondary sustained injuries, he toasted them for multiple touchdowns.  Meanwhile, your offense didn't make hay in the first half and turned the ball over in the second half.

Here is a quick list of who did well in the game:

1.  Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez were rock solid, with only 1 or 2 drops and lots of important catches.  Combined, they notched 16 receptions for 153 yards.

2.  Punter Zoltan Mesko did a great job pinning the Ravens back, even if the team should have called on him two or three fewer times and gone for it on fourth down instead.

3.  Rookie Alfonzo Dennard and oft-criticized Kyle Arrington were the best secondary players on the day, but that mostly casts an unflattering light on the rest of the secondary.

4.  Linebacker Brandon Spikes did a great job against the run, especially given that the defensive line didn't do its usual stellar job (mostly just held serve).

5.  Rob Ninkovich had another "johnny on the spot" game, finishing with 8 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 QB hits, and doing a nice job holding the edge against the run.

As for who didn't do well:

1.  Tom Brady didn't control the game with audibles as he had all year.  The first interception wasn't on him, and the second one was in desperation time, so his QB rating was worse than his performance.  But too many bad plays called in third-and-short situations, and not decisive enough when he ran out of the pocket.

2.  The coaches weren't aggressive enough, didn't make good adjustments (shown by a scoreless second half), blew the end-of-half situation, and didn't do enough to help their defensive backfield when Talib went out of the game.  The one good thing -- they obviously found something with the inside run in the second half.  But even including that, a poor performance.

3.  The linebackers in pass coverage, just didn't get the job done.

4.  The offensive line was mostly just okay.  Some decent holes but not consistent enough in the running or passing games.

5.  Wes Welker led the team in pass receptions and yards, made some catches after bone-crushing hits, and did good work on punt returns.  But his two drops -- both on third down in Ravens territory -- they were killers.

6.  Not that it was his fault, but corner Marquice Cole had an awful game.

So where does that leave us?  There literally is no tomorrow this season, so for a change, the Patriots Pro Bowl players will participate n the game next week.  The team has to figure out whether or not to bring back Talib (likely they will), and they should do their best to bring in another veteran to solidify that part of their defense.  And as always, they should consider all possible candidates for defensive coordinator, because that situation has not worked out very well lately.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  In the first 17 games this year, Mesko punted from inside the opponent 40 yard-line only 9% of the time (6 of 65).  On Sunday, it was 40% (2 of 5).  (Trivia question: in which game did he punt three times from inside the opponent's 40 yard-line -- answer below.)

Bonus Statistical Oddity:  Tom Brady won his first 67 home games when he held the lead at the half.  Yesterday was the first loss of his career in that situation.  (I read this one on several sites.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Missed opportunities always come back to haunt you; the Pats lost this game in the first half."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  13-5 & 1-1!
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PPS.  Mesko punted from inside the Miami 40 yard-line in the season finale -- a 28-0 blowout win.

Patriots vs. Ravens Preview

For the fourth time in three years, it's Patriots vs. Ravens, and it's sure to be a classic as they fight for a spot in Super Bowl XLVII.  In the last three meetings, the Patriots won twice, 23-20 each time (including an overtime game), and the Ravens scored a thrilling 31-30 comeback victory earlier this season.  Given how close this rivalry is, you might think there's no reason to ask if enough has changed to alter the outcome from last time.  But you'd be wrong :)

Several things changed since the last game, which was only last September.  And those changes will affect how things go, even if the game ends up as close as the other recent games.  Here are the key factors in this weekend's contest, how they will likely impact the game, and what the result is likely to be.

Factor #1: Improved Ravens Offense

Just two weeks ago in my playoff preview, I cited the Ravens desperation on offense.  The team was so frustrated with that side of the ball, they fired their offensive coordinator, replacing him with a man who'd never called a game at the NFL level.  And the results... well, I'll say that a heaping helping of crow goes down nicely with a good root beer!  (Is it strange that it tastes like Raven?)  New OC Jim "the statue" Caldwell has come to life, and reanimated the Baltimore offense.

In the last three "real" games they played, the Ravens averaged 31 points and over 10 yards per pass attempt (excepting week #17, when they rested their starters).  They throw the ball down the field now, attacking vertically rather than their old habit of ball-control running and safe passes.  "Win with defense" is now passe in Baltimore, and quarterback Joe Flacco is playing at a higher level.  Still not elite status, but he is continuing to improve.

The receivers are very complimentary; with Torrey Smith the deep burner, Anquan Boldin the physical outside threat, and tight end Dennis Pitta working the middle of the field.  And though Flacco too often eschews safer short passes for long bombs, he is making better decisions the last few weeks than he has in past playoff runs.

The Ravens offense is now more dangerous than their defense, and the defense is still formidable.

Factor #2: Improved Patriots defense

After an early-season loss to Seattle, I implored the team to put Devin McCourty at safety and keep him there.  Rookie safeties Tavon Wilson and Nate Ebner got beaten on the winning touchdown for Seattle, and it was clear that Steve Gregory and Patrick Chung weren't coming back from injuries any time soon.  They needed McCourty's skils and veteran presence to solidify the back end of the defense.

Two weeks later, the Patriots traded for corner Aqib Talib (from Tampa Bay).  What a difference one player can make. Talib allowed the McCourty move to safety, put rookie Alfonzo Dennard to cover the second-best outside receiver, and lastly left Kyle Arrington on slot receivers, which is a better match-up for him.

The turn-around was immediate.  The Patriots gave up nine explosive pass plays (20+ yards) against the Ravens, and after the Seattle game, they ranked dead last in the NFL in that category.  But since Talib came in, they have given up the fewest such plays.  Quite the reversal.

The bad news for the Ravens is that the Patriots defensive improvement works directly against their offensive improvement.  This matchup of newfound-strength-on-newfound-strength will be fascinating to watch on Sunday.

Factor #3:  Trading Speed for Gronk

With tight end Rob Gronkowski out, the Patriots will depend on speedier players than they would have with Gronk in there.  Wide receiver Brandon Lloyd, tight end Aaron Hernandez, slot receiver Wes Welker, and running backs Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen -- every one of them uses speed or quickness, whereas Gronkowski's game is mostly size and strength.

Not that the team is better off without Gronkowski.  They will especially miss his blocking in the run game, and the double-coverage he drew opened up room for the other receivers.  Also, his chemistry with quarterback Tom Brady is superb, and there is no replacing that, especially in the red zone.  However, they have no choice to play on, and being able to utilize speed against stout Ravens linebackers simply gives them different matchup advantages.

The crucial question is whether or not the receivers can get off the line of scrimmage quickly enough.  Ravens defenders will no doubt try to disrupt the timing of the passing game by hitting receivers within the allowed five-yard zone.  Look for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to find creative ways to get his receivers off the line: bunch groups, men in motion, and even receivers lined up in the backfield.

If the receivers get into their patterns quickly, their speed will win the day.  If not, the advantage goes to the Ravens.

Factor #4:  Ray Rice Versus Brandon Spikes

On January 10, 2010, Ray Rice took a hand-off on the opening play of the game, and carried it 83 yards for a touchdown.  It was the first strike in an eventual 33-14 playoff rout over the Patriots.  But including the rest of that game, in 3.99 games since then, he's averaged only 3.7 yards a rush, only topped 100 yards once, and has just 2 touchdowns.  The defense hasn't shut down Rice, but they have limited his impact -- even holding him to an average of 3.5 receptions for just 24.5 yards a game, and 0 receiving touchdowns in those games.

The key to slowing down Rice on Sunday will be linebacker Brandon Spikes.  He made huge strides this year in correctly diagnosing plays as either run or pass, and also in breaking up running plays with well-timed blitzes.  He will have to do that exceptionally well on Sunday.  Because if Spikes guesses wrong or blitzes into the wrong hole, or if Rice slides away from him in the backfield, the Patriots will pay dearly for those mistakes.

Vince Wilfork, Brandon Deaderick, Kyle Love, Jerod Mayo, and Dont'a Hightower -- along with the outside containment -- will have to hold up well to give the Patriots any chance to slow down the Baltimore running attack.  But to stop Rice, Spikes has to have a big game.

Quick Hits:

A)  Home field simply doesn't hold much advantage in this rivalry.  The games have been so close, it seems almost irrelevant where they are played.  And don't worry about the Ravens, they will not be intimidated by the crowd or the enormity of the situation.

B)  Both teams gave up big kickoff returns last week, but you should expect they will shore things up and do a lot better this Sunday.  The Ravens and the Patriots had terrific kick-coverage teams all season, so last week's performances should be considered aberrations.

C)  In the running game, the Patriots will likely try more outside runs -- pitches, reverses, and screen passes -- because they haven't been successful running inside on Ravens recently.

D)   The start of the game will be big, because the Ravens bring tons of emotion early in games, so the Patriots will have to survive the onslaught.  And the end of the game will be big, because the Patriots offense got much better at closing out games as the season progressed, so the Ravens will have to make a big stop late to get the ball back or preserve a lead.

E)  The current weather forecast calls for mild temperatures and no precipitation.  But it is expected to be windy.  That could cause problems for the Ravens deep strike offense, and also for the Patriots field goal game, given the erratic season by kicker Stephen Gostkowski.

Summary

Both teams will run the ball some, whether or not they gain lots of yards.  They have to; the defenses are too good to attack one-dimensionally.  However, the biggest factor in the game is that the Patriots defense has evolved into the kind that will give the Ravens trouble throwing down the field.  And the Ravens are not the type of team that changes things up for one game.  They usually go with what they do well and try to execute better than their opponent.

If the Ravens do alter their game plan and go with the medium-range passing game, the advantage will be theirs.  Attacking the Patriots linebackers through the air is a lot safer and more effective than attacking the revamped secondary.  However, there is little reason to expect the Ravens to make that change.  And at this particular moment, the Patriots secondary should hold an advantage over the Ravens deep passing game (especially if the wind is a factor).  And that makes the Patriots the favorite.

I foresee a game where a team gets one last, critical stop to hold onto a lead, and the outcome of that drive will be the ball game.  And if forced to predict, I'd say the Patriots are the ones who will make the crucial play, and come away with the victory -- let's say 24-20.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  13-4 & 1-0!

Patriots Advance With 41-28 Victory Over Texans

At 41-28, the score was closer this time around, but the game was almost as securely in hand most of the second half as the first one.  (Trivia question: prior to yesterday, when was the last time the Patriots scored 40+ points in two consecutive games against the same team... answer below.)  The Texans made most of the right moves, almost all the questionable calls went their way, and they even converted 3-of-4 fourth downs.  But with all that, they could not keep up with the Patriots.  The win means a repeat of last year's AFC Championship Game, with the Patriots hosting the Baltimore Ravens next Sunday at 6:30.  Should be a great game, but more on that later in the week.

As for the game yesterday, the Patriots were obviously superior to the Texans.  It wasn't about specific player matchups, because the Patriots suffered two significant injuries on offense but still scored 41 points.  It wasn't about patience with the running game this time, because it wasn't a blowout until the fourth quarter, so Houston had plenty of time to establish the run.  And it wasn't about bad in-game coaching, because there was very little to quibble with.

This game was about the play of superior players, having positional flexibility and skilled backup players, designing a thorough pre-game scheme, and making superb in-game adjustments, especially in the first half.  The Texans don't have good enough players to win many games against the Patriots.  But more importantly, they lack imagination in game-planning so they suffer early in the game, and they also lack the ability to make necessary in-game adjustments.  So as the game goes on, the Patriots present more and more problems for the Texans and the Texans present fewer and fewer problems for the Patriots.

Perhaps the only game the Texans could have won yesterday was one where they got early turnovers and converted them into touchdowns.  As it was, they started the game with a 94-yard kickoff return  -- and the "drive" stalled after 3 yards, and they settled for a field goal.  In fact, their scoring drives in the first half averaged just 25 yards.  If they didn't get great field position from special teams, they were simply unable to  drive 60+ yards and score.  So there was no way they could not keep up with the Patriots offense; after all, the Pats had five scoring drives of 60+ yards in the game.

Special teams might have played a big role in Houston's initial score, but they were crucial in keeping the Texans out of the end zone the rest of the quarter.  How?  These two plays: 12:48 left, Zoltan Mesko punts 61 yards to Houston 12 (tackled at the 17), and 6:00 left, Mesko punts 57 yards to the Houston 8 (tackled at the 20).  Big, booming punts (with the wind, but so what...), and great coverage pinned the Texans back all day, especially early on, while the Patriots offense was still working to get untracked.  Mesko was the unsung hero of the game -- with 5 punts for a 52.8 yard average.

Not that special teams was all smiles and wonderment, the kickoff team gave up 230 yards on 5 returns, three of them absolutely huge plays that led directly to Texans points.  Kicker Stephen Gostkowski seemed to get plenty of distance and hang time, but the coverage gave up the edge too easily and lacked central lane discipline on two of them.  Perhaps this was owing to the two-week layoff, but rest assured Baltimore's kickoff returners are salivating, so the Patriots have to get that straightened out.

Fortunately, the defense was outstanding, especially in the first half.  It was not always pretty, with a lot of second-and-short and third-and-short, but the defense played very stout when necessary to end drives and get the offense back on the field.  The Texans were a paltry 4-of-15 (27%) on third-down conversions, and even with star running back Arian Foster, they averaged fewer yards than the Patriots in the running game (4.0 versus 5.1 for the Pats).  And they kept Houston QB Matt Schaub under just enough pressure to make him uncomfortable.

The linebackers totaled 3 tackles for a loss, and Jerod Mayo and Dont'a Hightower both made good plays in pass coverage -- a rarity this season.  Brandon Spikes continues to do a great job in run blitz, and as a unit, they did well passing off crossing receivers and making tackles after the catch.  It wasn't always pretty; some drives appeared heading for a score, but timely big plays were the key.  The linebackers need to continue this level of play next week, because the Ravens come to town with good tight ends and running backs who can attack the short-middle in the passing game.

The defensive line was led on the stat sheet by Rob Ninkovich, who had a monster game: 4 tackles, 1 for a loss, 1 QB hit, 2 passes knocked down, and 1 huge interception.  He also recovered an onside kick in a nasty looking scrum, and that pretty much sealed the game.  Interestingly, his interception came on a zone-blitz where he dropped into coverage and linebacker Jerod Mayo took his place rushing the QB.  This defensive wrinkle confused Schaub, and he threw it right to Ninkovich.

He wasn't the only lineman who shone brightly.  Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love continually pushed the center of the line back into the quarterback's face, and that pressure forced early passes and some throws on the run (something Schaub is really bad at).  They finished with 5 and 1 tackles, respectively, but the rest of the line only notched 5 tackles among four players.  But they all worked in concert to force the Texans to throw before they wanted to, and it paid off when the incompletions piled up.

The secondary did a nice job tackling, but only an okay job in coverage.  Aqib Talib had 10 tackles, mostly because he covered Andre Johnson all day and Johnson had 8 catches.  Talib did a nice job making the tackle after the catch, but ended the day without a single knocked-down pass.  Safeties Steve Gregory (10) and Devin McCourty (7) kept everything in front of them, forcing Houston to drive the ball a few yards at a time.  Alfonzo Dennard and Tavon Wilson didn't do much to distinguish themselves, and the overall impression is that they'll have to be better at knocking away passes next week.

On offense, running back Shane Vereen had an outstanding day.  He had 7 carries for 41 yards, and also caught 5 passes for 83 yards, and he had 1 rushing TD and 2 receiving TDs.  When Danny Woodhead went out with an injury, Vereen filled in more than capably -- didn't even notice any problems with pass protection in the spread formation.  Stevan Ridley got 82 yards on 15 carries, giving the Patriots their stellar 5.1 YPC average, and Ridley pitched in with a touchdown, too.

In the passing game, quarterback Tom Brady handled the pressure very well.  Texans were blitzing from everywhere, and Brady did a great job searching for receivers down the field while players were flying all around him.  He ended up going 25 for 40 (62.5%), 344 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions (and nothing even close to being picked off), and a 115.0 QB rating.  He did a nice job of mixing in the no huddle with the fast break offense, and made a few absolutely gorgeous passes (most notably the 33-yard touchdown to Vereen).

Wes Welker led all Patriots receivers with 8 catches for 131 yards, and Aaron Hernandez proved again that his is the uncoverable man, getting 6 catches of his own for 85 yards, despite facing lots of scrutiny at the line of scrimmage.  The loss of Gronkowski (reportedly for the rest of the playoffs) will hurt, but it will be up to Brandon Lloyd, one of the other tight ends (Daniel Fells or Michael Hoomanawanui) to step up, because the team won't go much of anywhere with only Hernandez and Welker involved in the passing game.

And all of that is not to slight the offensive line, especially given how well the Pats ran the ball and how clean Brady's uniform was  Logan Mankins and Nate Solder were solid all day, and the interior of the line did a great job on the Ridley runs up the middle.  Sebastian Vollmer had trouble at times, although they were facing one of the best defensive lines in the league, so it was understandable.  But overall a very good performance by the O-line.

Coaching gets a very mixed grade.  They did a nice job with both the offensive and defensive game plans, and were outstanding at in-game adjustments.  But the kick coverage teams literally played poorly enough that they could have cost the Patriots the game, if not for stellar defensive play that bailed them out.  And the team committed five penalties, two of which were 15-yarders that really hurt (Lloyd's killed a Patriots drive, Gostkowski's gave the Texans an even shorter field late in the game).

Penalties and poor special teams play went hand-in-hand, and both are often attributed to rust and/or bad coaching.  The penalties were probably rust, but still more of a coaching responsibility.  But the special teams gaffes were coaching through and through, and need to be fixed by next Sunday -- or you might be in for two weeks of Ray Lewis hype at the Super Bowl.

So where does that leave us?  As stated, the Patriots host the Ravens next Sunday at 6:30, right here in Foxboro.  And this time, the Ravens are healthy and it's the Patriots with some significant injuries.  Should be a barn-burner -- two teams that know each other well, and that respect each other but hate each others guts.  I'll be there with my hate-hat on, so tune in and see if the Pats can make it six Super Bowls in the Belichick/Brady era.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: From 2006 - 2011, Rob Ninkovich had a combined 6 interceptions/forced-fumbles.  With his INT yesterday, he has 6 this season alone.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Nice job by the Texans -- in two games they scored as many points as the Patriots scored in the first game."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  13-4 & 1-0!

PPS.  Trivia answer: just last year, the Patriots put up 41 and 45 against the Denver Broncos -- once in the regular season and once in the playoffs, just as with the Texans.

Patriots vs. Texans Preview

Patriots/Texans -- it doesn't have the ring of Patriots/Steelers or Patriots/Broncos... at least not yet.  But they are developing a history, right before our eyes.  One month ago, they were the 11-1 and 9-3 AFC big boys, when they met in Foxboro.  Unfortunately for Houston, they became the latest contenders to be exposed as pretenders to the throne.

However, that was then, this is now.  Given that the teams played to recently, it should be easy to figure out if enough has changed for each team to expect a different outcome.  On December 10, the Patriots whupped the Texans, 42-14, in a game where the blowout score very accurately indicated the differences between the teams on that day.  So Houston has a lot of ground to make up; question is, can they possibly turn-around a 28-point deficit?  The answer might surprise you.

1. The Game Is Currently Tied

Even though the Patriots won the first game by 28 points, and controlled it from very early on, they don't get to carry those points over.  It is an oft-repeated point, but in this case, it applies more than most weeks.  This is a brand new game, and though some themes carry forward, many breaks went the Patriots way last time, and they could just as easily go the Texans way this weekend.

Last time, the Texans were completely unprepared for the intensity of what was the franchise's first big game.  And when the Patriots leaped out to a big lead, Houston had no idea how to come back and had no confidence they could.  But that game is now behind them, and the coaches and players in Houston understand what big games are like.  And they showed they know how to win a big game, by winning their first playoff game last week, even when they did not play their best.

But at this exact moment, the teams are even; the game is tied, 0-0, with 15:00 left in the first quarter.  And don't expect it to be 21-0 in less than 19-minutes in like last time.

2.  Patriots Improvements

Tight end Rob Gronkowski did not play in the first game, and yet the Texans had few answers for the Patriots fast-break offense.  With Gronkowski back, Houston will have to pick their poison among three receivers -- they'll have to single-cover Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, or Wes Welker.  Oh, and they will need to figure out better coverage for Brandon Lloyd, too, since he finished with 7 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown.

Additionally, a vastly improved Jermaine Cunningham returns, which further solidifies the rotation on both sides of the outside defensive line.  Rob Ninkovich is limping with a hip injury, but both Cunningham and Trevor Scott will keep Ninkovich fresh and provide outside pressure (though neither does as well against the run).  On the other side, Chandler Jones has made big plays the last few weeks, and fellow rookie Justin Francis came out of nowhere to notch three sacks in the last game.

Suffice it to say the Patriots will be improved.  They also got rest for many of the players dinged up during the season, so expect them to be at the top of their game health-wise.

3. Texans Improvements

The Texans did not return any significant players, but they can expect two improvements over the December game.

First, experience is key, and they know better how to prepare and play a game of this magnitude.  None of the players had participated in anything close to the December game, and one should reasonably expect them to be much better prepared this time.

Second, most of the breaks went against the Texans last time.  The Patriots recovered their own fumbles on two of their touchdown drives, they got an interception when Matt Schaub could have tied the game at 7-7, and they had a questionable pass interference penalty extend another drive that ended with a touchdown.  Not saying the Patriots didn't earn the win, but preparation, breaks, and momentum mostly explain the lop-sided final score.

4.  Likely Changes in Strategy

Given the 42-14 final score, the Patriots won't likely change a lot for this game.  On defense, expect them to bottle up the run with their stout defensive line, and double-cover receiver Andre Johnson, thus daring Matt Schaub to beat them with other players.  On offense, Gronkowski will get a lot of attention, especially early on, before anyone knows how effective he will be after the lay-off.  That should be when they target Aaron Hernandez and Brandon Lloyd to try for another early lead.

For the Texans, expect them to mix in more blitz packages to disrupt the timing of the Patriots offense.  Wade Phillips isn't really comfortable with this, but head coach Gary Kubiak will insist on going all-out.  And on offense, the Texans will likely use mid-range passes to exploit the pass-coverage deficiencies of the Patriots linebackers.  Watch for tight ends Owen Daniels and also for running back Arian Foster out of the backfield.

5.  Quick Hits:

A)  Kicker Stephen Gostkowski didn't attempt a field goal in the first game, but he was mired in his worst streak of the season, having made only 67% of his attempts in the previous three games.  However, Gostkowski is 5 for 5 since then, so it appears he shook off his case of the "yips."

B)  Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips needs to mix up his defense to slow down Tom Brady.  The Patriots haven't lost to a Wade Phillips defense in over 7 years, and Brady's average game is impressive: 26 of 44 for 321 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, a 102.6 QB rating, and 2 sacks for 9 yards.  Oh, and Phillips' teams haven't intercepted a Brady pass since January 14, 2007.

C)  For the second straight time, weather will not be a factor.  It was 59-degrees at kickoff on December 10 (with some light rain), and it's supposed to be 45-degrees with no precipitation and very little wind this Sunday.

D)  The Texans have a diverse enough offense to keep up with the Patriots, but they have to stay patient.  The Patriots will stack up the run, but that should open up the short- and intermediate-passing game, which is where Houston has to attack.  But they can't start chucking it down the field, their quarterback isn't accurate enough and they don't have enough deep threats to make that work consistently.

E)  The Patriots rushing attack was an underplayed factor in the first game.  They went for 130 yards and averaged 3.9 yards a carry.  And that was without Gronkowski, one of the best blocking tight ends in the league.  When he's on the field, the Patriots can switch from pass to run and vice versa at will -- and that should get them even more yards per carry on Sunday.

6.  How Will It Play Out?

Given all those factors, it's unlikely that enough has changed in the last 31 days to indicate a Houston win.  They could win, but no matter the outcome, it should be a lot closer.  The Texans should not be overwhelmed this time, the breaks will probably be more even, and if the game stays competitive, Houston will focus on their running game to keep the number of possessions lower and more manageable.

So Houston can win the game.  But in the end, the Patriots should win it.  Houston couldn't slow down the Pats offense without Gronkowski, and everyone in the NFL knows that he is a match-up nightmare and one of the great difference-makers in the league.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  12-4 & 0-0!

Patriots 2012 Regular Season Awards

The 2012 season ended in dramatic fashion, with a win on the final Sunday that ensured a first-round playoff bye and an extra week to get healthy.  But before the Patriots start what we hope will be a long playoff run, here is a look back at the best performers, newcomers, and most improved players of the 2012 season.

The Offense 

Most Valuable Offensive Player: Tom Brady
Honorable Mention: Wes Welker, Nate Solder

The rest of the team might have to wait until Brady retires to get a shot at this award.  It was another stellar year; he threw for 4,827 yards, completed 63% of his passes, and tossed 34 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions.  Brady again was in complete control of the offense, and three of the four losses on the year were by 1, 1, and 2 points -- so the team could easily have been 13-3 or 14-2 (or even 15-1).

Wes Welker started the season under a cloud of rumors he was being phased out.  He ended up with 118 catches (second in the NFL), 1,354 yards, and 6 touchdowns.  Reminds me of the twilight of Roger Clemens' career -- we can all only hope to be phased out like that someday.

More on Solder's value in the next section.

Most Improved Offensive Player: Nate Solder
Honorable Mention: Stevan Ridley

In one year, Solder went from a "now reporting as eligible" third tight end to a 16-game starter who replaced the underrated (and under-appreciated) Matt Light a left tackle.  He was better protecting Brady's bilnd side than Light was last year, and in a position group with so much change and uncertainty, Solder was the only dependable starter all year long.

For sheer numbers, Stevan Ridley increased his rushing yards by 180% (441 to 1,263 -- the highest total since Corey Dillon left the team) and touchdowns 11-fold (1 to 12).  He did unfortunately increase his fumbles to 4, but he lost only 1 fumble in the last 11 games of the year.

Offensive Newcomer of the Year: Brandon Lloyd
Honorable Mention: none

Lloyd didn't work out as well as people dreamed he might, but he was more than a solid addition, grabbing 74 passes for 911 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Some catches were spectacular and his game against San Francisco helped the team climb back from a 28-point deficit and almost win.  Not Randy Moss (circa 2007), but a very good addition who could play dividends when both tight ends play in the playoffs.  He will also likely improve next year.

The Defense 

Most Valuable Defensive Player: Vince Wilfork
Honorable Mention: Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty

Patriots interior defensive linemen never get big numbers, but Wilfork still got 48 tackles, 3 sacks, and knocked down 6 passes.  More importantly, ever since the AFC Championship Game last year, Wilfork has been playing at a new level, even for him.  He breaks through double-teams and still makes tackles, and he almost always pushes the pocket back, which helped outside rushers Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones total 8 and 6 sacks respectively.

Wilfork is almost as important to the defense as Brady is to the offense, and he is playing at a level equal to Richard Seymour in his prime.

Jerod Mayo moved to outside linebacker this year, and he got more pressure on the quarterback and helped shore up the the edge run defense.  He also stepped inside when needed, showing the kind of versatility the Patriots like.

McCourty also changed positions, from cornerback to safety, and he also switched back when needed.  The change led to 5 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and he was second on the team with 82 tackles (albeit a distant second, to Mayo's 147).

Most Improved Defensive Player: Rob Ninkovich
Honorable Mention: Devin McCourty, Jermaine Cunningham

Ninkovich also changed positions, moving from linebacker in the 3-4 to D-lineman in the 4-3.  And the improvement was remarkable -- increase his sacks from 6.5 to 8.0 and his forced fumbles from 1 to 5.  He also helped (along with Jerod Mayo) to shore up the outside run defense, doing a much better job holding the edge than he did the previous year.

McCourty for reasons already mentioned; he played some safety last year, but his move to safety in 2012 helped solidify the position group.

Cunningham had 1 tackle in 9 games last year, and improved to 24 tackles in 12 games this year.  Of course, he got busted for performance-enhancing drugs, so make you own judgment as to how he improved.

Defensive Newcomer of the Year: Chandler Jones, Steve Gregory
Honorable Mention: Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard

Jones and Gregory brought new energy and solid play to the front and back of the defense.  Jones was second on the team with 6.0 sacks.  His mediocre middle of the season was bookended by a sensational start and a solid finish.  The Patriots defense is not easy to learn, and Jones did a great job holding up for 14 games.

Gregory came to a secondary that couldn't get any worse (remember Matthew Slater at safety and Julian Edelman at corner?).  An injury slowed him in the middle of the year, but Gregory did a nice job playing centerfield for the team -- helping to keep plays shorter when he played.

Aqib Talib played in only six games and had only one interception, and Dennard played in ten games and grabbed three interceptions.  But their impact was to allow McCourty to return to safety and for Kyle Arrington to cover slot receivers, and that is the best secondary lineup they have.

The Special Teams 

Most Valuable Special Teams Player: Matthew Slater
Honorable Mention: Zoltan Mesko

Slater was named the AFC Pro Bowl special teams player, so there's no question he deserves the award for his team.  He did a great job flying down on coverage teams, and that helped Mesko put 28 punts inside the 20 yard line and also helped keep all but 6 punts from being touchbacks.

Mesko was key to keeping some of the Patriots lesser opponents backed up, which helped the defense.  And when the defense stepped up, it gave the offense short fields.

Most Improved Special Teams Player: Matthew Slater
Honorable Mention: none

Slater had almost as many tackles this year (19) as in 2011 (24) -- the difference is that he did not play on defense this year, so all 19 tackles were on special teams.

Special Teams Newcomer of the Year: none
Honorable Mention: none

Sorry -- but no one new really distinguished themselves this season.

So there you have it; the coveted regular-season awards.  Now we're ready for the playoffs -- look for a preview of the Patriots/Texans tilt some time this week.  Until then...

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-4 & 0-0!

Patriots Down Dolphins, 28-0

Yesterday afternoon, with a chance at a first-round playoff bye, the Houston Texans laid an egg and lost 28-16.  Last night, with that same chance, the Patriots and Broncos won by a combined 66-3.  That's called finishing, folks, and the Patriots did just that, earning the #2 seed and a week off before hosting a playoff game.  The Patriots play on January 13 at 4:30, and potential playoff opponents are the Ravens, Texans, or Colts -- but all won't be revealed until after next weekend's games.

In Sunday's tilt, the Patriots offensive game plan stood out.  Coordinator Josh McDaniels called for short passes on a windy day, and the Patriots receivers were outstanding in yards-after-catch.  In the first quarter alone, they had "short passes" that went for 23, 24, and 25 yards; with most of those yards gained after the catch.  In contrast, the Dolphins tried deep throws, and some passes were badly off the mark, some were knocked away, and one was intercepted.

The defensive game plan repeated their earlier performance against rookie QB Ryan Tannehill.  They blitzed from every angle, knowing from the previous game that he'd make critical mistakes under pressure.  Tannehill might be fine in the long run, but his rookie numbers in two games against the Patriots will never impress anyone: 33 of 64 (51.5%), 421 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, 10 sacks for 36 yards, and a 66.0 QB rating.

The Patriots defense dominated, holding Reggie Bush to 3.25 yards a carry, sacking the quarterback 7 times, getting the early interception, forcing a fumble, and knocking down 6 passes.  Chandler Jones had his best game in months, with 7 tackles and 2 passes defended, and he held the edge well on running plays.  His fellow linemen did a great job against the inside run, and the other outside rusher, Justin Francis got 3 sacks of his own.  Unfortunately, starter Rob Ninkovich left the game with an injury; here's hoping it doesn't keep him out of the playoffs.

Linebacker Jerod Mayo applied good pressure on blitzes and was stout against the run.  Additionally, he made a nice play to knock down a pass, a rare pass-coverage success.  Dont'a Hightower is very up-and-down, but when the playoffs come, if Brandon Spikes returns, Hightower can return to his more natural right OLB position.  Spikes did play some yesterday, and they need him back for the playoffs, especially if Ninkovich can't go.

In the secondary, Aqib Talib missed the entire game (after missing most of Jacksonville game last week), and Alfonzo Dennard was out, too, both of which are worrisome.  The team's best secondary lineup is Talib and Dennard at corner along with Devin McCourty and Steve Gregory (or Patrick Chung) at safety.  With Talib and Dennard out, McCourty shifts to corner and Kyle Arrington joins him there.  McCourty is better than people give him credit, but Arrington plays much better against slot receivers.

The Patriots need either Talib or Dennard back for the playoffs.  They can survive with McCourty at corner and Gregory/Chung at safety, but Arrington at the second corner spot is a time bomb against teams with two good outside receivers.  And in the playoffs, there are plenty of those teams.

On offense, Rob Gronkowski returned and was effective, even if he played with only one arm.  He grabbed 2 catches for 42 yards, and had a nice seam route for a touchdown.  And even with the injured wing, he blocked better than Michael Hoomanawanui -- who was blown off the ball twice, blocked no one while a corner ran past him for a sack, and whiffed on two other blocks.  Not sure why he's in the game, but if Gronkowski isn't fully healthy for the playoffs, the Patriots offense will be... how shall we say, limited.

As for the other receivers, Wes Welker had his routine great game: 8 catches, 94 yards, 1 touchdown, and several great blocks.  Aaron Hernandez made nice yards after the catch, and the only other receiver who had a big day was running back Danny Woodhead.  As my wife pointed out, Woodhead seems to be useful situationally.  He can't pass block consistently, so he has to be used sparingly in that role.  And against some teams, he tears it up running (San Francisco and Miami), while against others, he can't seem to get started at all (New York Jets and Houston Texans).

Woodhead had a very good game this week, but the rushing star was Stevan Ridley: 20 carries for 74 yards, and 2 touchdowns.  Ridley ran hard, making multiple tacklers miss and gaining yards where none appeared to be there.  Woodhead (3-18), Brandon Bolden (6-26), and Shane Vereen (8-38) contributed to a team total of 167 yards and 4.4 yards a carry.

You don't get numbers like that without good play from the offensive line, and the Patriots line did a great job against Miami.  They gave up only one sack (and as mentioned, that was the tight end's fault), and Tom Brady was hit only twice all game.  Dan Connolly and Sebastian Vollmer were especially active on sweeps and downfield on screen passes.  And there was almost no inside pressure, so the very good Miami outside pass rush was simply pushed past the pocket to little effect.

Brady's best qualities came out in this game.  His decision-making was nearly flawless, with audibles to a run when the Dolphins flooded the passing zones, and hot reads that beat the blitz.  How well he controlled the game is belied by his ho-hum stat-line: 22 of 36, 284 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a 104.4 QB rating.  But his focus was keen and he got the Patriots into the right look about 95% of the time, which is outstanding against a defense that knows him as well as the Dolphins.

Special teams did pretty well, although the windy day limited their opportunities.  Punter Zoltan Mesko placed put 4 of his 5 punts inside the Miami 20 yard-line.  Wes Welker had some nice punt returns, but the only Miami kickoff was downed in the end zone.  Kicker Stephen Gostkowski didn't attempt a field goal, and with good reason, if you saw how badly the Miami attempt went wide-left in a gusting wind.

As mentioned before, the coaching on both sides of the ball was very good.  The Patriots had a solid plan, and the players executed it flawlessly.  You can't ask for much better than that.

So where does that leave us?  Patriots are officially scheduled for the 4:30 game on Sunday, 1/13/13.  (As tweeted earlier, I hope those twin "13s" aren't bad luck, @yourpatriots.)  That gives the team two weeks to prepare, which is great, because Brandon Spikes, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and Aqib Talib (among others) could use the time to heal.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:   Patriots top three tacklers were a lineman (Chandler Jones, 7), a cornerback (Kyle Arrington, 6), and a safety (Patrick Chung, 6).  Care to guess the last time no linebacker was among the top three tacklers for the Patriots (answer below)?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:  "It's possible both lower seeded teams could win in the AFC next week.  Houston and Baltimore are playing so poorly, they could easily get knocked off."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  12-4 & 0-0!

PPS.  Trivia answer:
V
V
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V
V
V
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V
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V
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On September 24, 2011, the Patriots visited Buffalo, and their top three tacklers were all cornerbacks: Devin McCourty (11), Leigh Bodden (7), and Kyle Arrington (6).

Patrots Take Care of Jaguars, 23-16

I didn't watch the game yet, so no detailed report at this point.  However, the Patriots did indeed hang on for a 23-16 win over Jacksonville, keeping pace with the victorious Broncos and Ravens, and picking up a game on the losing Houston Texans.  Next week, the Pats host Miami in the final game of the regular season, and depending on the results, they could finish with any of the top four playoff positions.

Playoff scenarios for this Sunday

1.  Patriots finish fourth only if they lose and the Ravens win.

2.  Patriots finish third if they win and the Broncos and Texans win or tie their games this weekend.  They also finish third if they tie on Sunday, or if they lose and the Ravens lose or tie.

3.  Patriots finish second if they win and the Broncos or Texans lose.

4.  Patriots finish first if they win and the Broncos and Texans both lose.

Got all that?  There will not be a quiz later :)

So where does that leave us?  The Dolphins are riding a two-game winning streak, and in the last three games, quarterback Ryan Tannehill completed 60% of his passes, threw 5 touchdowns, has no interceptions, and posted a 96.1 QB rating.  Doesn't necessarily mean he will win on Sunday, but he's playing better than he was four weeks ago, when the Patriots beat them in Miami.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  The Patriots won their only two Florida games this year by the exact same score, 23-16.

Bonus Statistical Oddity:  Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions in the first 13 games of the season.  Then he threw 4 in the last 2 games.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:  "They can't rest the starters on Sunday; there's too much at stake.  Besides, they have to get some reps for Gronk."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  11-4!

49ers Outlast Patriots, 41-34

San Francisco came to town and played the part of inhospitable guests, building a 28-point lead and hanging on for a 41-34 victory over the Patriots.  The loss dropped the Pats a game behind the Broncos for the second seed in the AFC, and all but puts the #1 seed out of reach.  Next week it's a tilt against the Jaguars in Jacksonville (site of the Patriots' most recent Super Bowl victory), and they need a win to stay ahead of the Baltimore Ravens and avoid slipping to the #4 seed.

The game was ugly early, great for about 18 minutes, and then depressing late.  Speaking of late, it's after 3:00, so I'll keep this update brief.  Not much to say beyond "Patriots stunk up the joint" anyway.

First, credit where it is due -- San Fran head coach Jim Harbaugh put together a great game plan.  He attacked the Patriots defense with ingenious schemes, attacked their offense with brute force and turnovers, and used special teams to extend drives and (more importantly) to keep the Pats backed up all game long.

The first 49ers score came when two receivers lined up next to each other and ran fly patterns into the end zone.  Both got behind the defensive backs, and the safety was late getting over, so it was an easy touchdown to Randy Moss -- though it could have gone to the tight end just as easily.  On another touchdown, they ran two tight ends to the same half of the end zone, but their scheme left the Patriots' Alfonzo Dennard alone to defend both players -- another easy touchdown.

They also ran a fake punt, which is something they probably saw in film study.  And with the combination of turnovers and great punting, the average 49ers drive started on their 46 yard line, whereas the average Patriots drive started on their own 20 yard line.  Patriots special teams penalties contributed to that disparity, too, but it was mostly great punting and kickoff coverage by San Francisco.

The Niners defense was good enough to hold the Pats for a half.  But giving more credit where it is due, the Patriots made outstanding halftime adjustments, and scored four touchdowns in less than 20:00 of game time.  Unfortunately, they'd dug themselves too deep a hole.  Down by 28 points, they had to be perfect just to catch up, which they did -- but then, they slipped up a few times down the stretch and San Francisco took advantage and put the game away.

In the Patriots first 9 possessions, they had: 3 three-and-outs, 1 four-and-out, 2 lost fumbles, 2 interceptions, and 1 field goal.  Their second fumble and second interception came on their first two possessions of the third quarter, and those turnovers left them down 31-3, and all looked hopeless.  But once the Pats stopped stopping themselves, they roared back to tie the game.

Not often you lose the turnover battle 4-2 and even have a chance to win.  But the Pats defense stopped the 49ers on five second-half possessions, while the offense racked up four straight touchdowns.  But alas, the Niners used a great kickoff return to set up a one-play touchdown and vault back into the lead.  And the Patriots offense looked like it would score to tie it again, but two sacks on consecutive plays ended that drive, and effectively any chance to win the game.

It wasn't all bad, so here are some of the good things that happened:

1.  Great halftime adjustments by the offensive line coach and the offensive coordinator.  If not for turnovers, they could well have pulled out the game, the turnaround was that stunning.

2.  Tom Brady's touchdown-saving tackle after an interception -- and the defense turning the ball back over to the offense two plays later.

3.  Brandon Lloyd ended up with 10 catches for 190 yards, by far his best game with the Patriots.  This is a very encouraging sign, as the team chugs toward the playoffs.  Oh, and San Francisco had no answer for Aaron Hernandez (10 for 92), and they couldn't cover Wes Welker in the second half (5 for 56).

4.  Danny Woodhead's shifty running style worked better against the large 49ers defense; he had 61 yards on the ground, 5 catches for 23 yards, and 2 rushing TDs.  Once a millstone on the first- and second-down offense, he's a nice change of pace, especially against lumbering defensive linemen. 
 And to be balanced, here are some of the lowlights for the Patriots:

1.  Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen -- tsk tsk tsk, take better care of the ball.  If not, Brandon Bolden will get your carries in the postseason.

2.  The interior of the Patriots defense was repeatedly gashed for big yards right up the middle.  And when they had shots at SF quarterback Colin Kaepernick, they didn't take them, letting up or letting him get away instead.

3.  Secondary miscommunications and/or poor design -- too many 49ers receivers running wide open, especially in the end zone.

4.  8 penalties for 73 yards, the worst of which was an illegal shift that negated a touchdown.  There were also several penalties that canceled out good punt returns and gave the offense a long field to drive.

5.  The referees -- made the game too long, blew several pass interference calls on both sides, somehow missed a muffed punt, and spent too much time talking with coaches.

So where does this leave us?  10-4 and needing help to secure a playoff bye.  But don't count on it.  The Patriots could run the table, but Denver has to lose to Cleveland or Kansas City, neither of which seems likely to give the Broncos much of a game.  Next week it's Jacksonville, who will pay the price for the Patriots missteps this week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  Brandon Lloyd had almost as many yards yesterday (190) as he had in the previous five games combined (214).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:  "Can't win 'em all -- especially when they fumble six times and you only get one of them."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-4!

Patriots School the Texans, 42-14

The Patriots continued their December dominance with a thrashing of the upstart Houston Texans, a 42-14 beat down at Foxboro that pitted a prepared team against an ill-prepared one.  The win put the Patriots firmly in the lead for a playoff bye, and only one game behind Houston for the #1 playoff seed in the AFC.  Next week they take on the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, on a short week, but at least it's at home.

This game reminded me of a game the Patriots lost a few years ago; a 38-17 loss to the Saints in New Orleans.  In that game, the Pats had more mental breakdowns on defense than they've had this entire season, and Saints QB Drew Brees made them pay for every mistake.  Brees averaged an astonishing 16.1 yards per attempt, and the Cold, Hard Football Facts web site declared it the greatest passing performance in NFL history (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/brees-the-best-day-ever/7187/).  I remember it as the most embarrassing game since Rod Rust and his 1-15 record left town.  (Trivia question: can you name the team Rust's 1990 Patriots beat... answer below.)

Last night, the Texans had a linebacker cover Aaron Hernandez and the Pats tight end scored a touchdown.  They lost track of Hernandez near the goal-line, and it was an easy throw for his second score.  The Texans bit on play-action fakes, even when the Patriots hadn't run the ball effectively yet, and gave up long pass to Wes Welker and a Brandon Lloyd touchdown.  They also committed two pass interference penalties.  And that was just the first half.

On offense, quarterback Matt Schaub threw a red zone interception when he could have tied the game.  Wideout Kevin Walter dropped a fourth-and-five pass to turn the ball back to the Patriots.  And when they went back to him on the next drive, he failed to catch another pass on fourth-and-five (at least he was consistent).  There were multiple dropped passes, and free Patriots blitzers smacking Schaub around just as he released the ball.

Nothing went right for Houston, and everything went right for New England.  Even when the Texans caused their two fumbles: they could have fallen on the first one and missed it (Pats TD two plays later); and the second one bounced into the end zone and Lloyd fell on it for another touchdown.  They gave up field position with penalties on special teams.  They ran into the teeth of nine-man fronts, and waited until they were down 28-0 to try play-action throws to all-world receiver Andre Johnson.

Sometimes Bill Belichick will call a victory a "team win."  This was a Houston "team loss" -- with contributions from offense, defense, special teams, and the coaching staff.

As for the Patriots, the good news on offense:

1.  Tom Brady was surgical in the first 20 minutes, but his accuracy and effectiveness diminished when the Texans started knocking him around in the second quarter.  The offensive line did a pretty good job getting to the QB (only one sack, but six other QB hits -- and some serious hits at that).  And once the Patriots made their halftime adjustments, Brady was surgical again in the second half.

2.  Looks like Brandon Lloyd will pick up the slack for the missing Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman.  The Pats went 1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 receivers most of the game, and while that personnel gives it away that they are passing the ball, Lloyd gives them an outside threat to compliment the inside receivers.

3.  Donte Stallworth can still go deep, as he did on his 63-yard touchdown, featuring a nice catch, two broken tackles, and a stretch for the end zone.

4.  Once the game was in hand, the coaches did a great job using the up-tempo offense to tire out the Texans defense.  And when they were tired, the Patriots ran out of the no huddle, keeping them from substituting and gashing them with clock-killing runs.  In the fourth quarter alone, the Pats had 10 rushes for 65 yards -- that's exactly half their rushing yards.

5.  The return of guard Logan Mankins was a boon inside, bringing not only great blocking, but also an attitude.  He got a huge push on several running plays, and kept at it with the active and talented Houston front seven.

6.  The foursome at running back all had their time to shine: Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen carried the load, Danny Woodhead had some nice catches and a great catch-and-run, and rookie Brandon Bolden averaged 5.5 yards in his return from a drug suspension.

The good news on defense:

1.  Vince Wilfork might be playing the best football of his career.  He was always an immovable object, but now he's getting to the passer and busting through double-teams to make tackles in the backfield.  Reminiscent of Richard Seymour at his prime, which as you know is some of the best you will ever see.

2.  Corners Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, and Kyle Arrington held Johnson in check in the first half and everybody else in check the entire game.  They battled and scrapped, and took full advantage of the rushed throws by Schaub.



3.  Devin McCourty is now the Patriots best safety, and he even moved back to corner to replace the injured Talib in the second half.  McCourty's first quarter interception changed the direction of the game, and he also had a pass defended, a tackle for a loss, and five tackles on the day.

4.  Jerod Mayo, but only when he's blitzing.  When he attacks the passer, he hurries the throw at least 75% of the time, and when he run blitzes, he either gets to the running back or redirects him and/or disrupts the timing enough to blow up the play.  In pass coverage, not so good... not good at all.

5.  Trevor Scott; 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble in two games.  A better-than-adequate replacement while Jermaine Cunningham serves his suspension.

And finally, the bit of bad news:

1.  Two fumbles; just unacceptable.  They recovered both of them, but in the playoffs, putting the ball on the ground is the surest way to lose.  They have to straighten this out fast, San Francisco hits hard and is always trying to jar the ball loose.

2.  Offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer just isn't very effective with his back problems.  He was dominated several times by Houston's J.J. Watt, and the Patriots had to slide tight ends to his side when they ran.  The worse news: the team doesn't really have a good alternative to Vollmer.

3.  Wes Welker's three dropped passes.  With Gronkowski out, every offensive mistake is magnified, and of the six targets that were not completed, at least three of them were flat-out drops by Welker.

4.  Commentator Jon Gruden, who apparently can't tell the difference between Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes in pass coverage.  Or is it that he doesn't want to admit Mayo's problems covering tight ends... not sure.

So where does this leave us?  As stated earlier, the Patriots will get a first-round playoff bye if they win the rest of their games.  However, that won't be easy, with the tough and battle-tested 49ers coming to town in six days.  A win there, and they can likely beat Jacksonville and Miami to close it out, but this Sunday is a daunting task, especially on a short week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  Entering this season, Zoltan Mesko was the NFL's all-time leader in career net punting average.  This year ranks 30th in the NFL in that category.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:  "That game was the football equivalent of 'Godzilla Versus Bambi.'"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-3!

PPS.  Trivia answer: on September 16, 1990, Rod Rust notched his only victory as an NFL head coach -- but just barely.  The Patriots beat the Colts in Indianapolis, 16-14, which means the Rust Era ended with zero home victories.

Patriots Win 23-16, Clinch Division Crown

The Patriots stayed pretty conservative and outlasted the desperate Dolphins for a 23-16 victory.  The win clinched their ninth division title in ten years and guaranteed their 12th consecutive winning season.  The win also tied them with the Baltimore Ravens, who lost to Pittsburgh and are now tied with the Patriots and Broncos at 9-3.  When considering a playoff bye, the Patriots hold the tiebreaker over Denver, but the Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Patriots, and the Broncos and Ravens play in a few weeks.  So rather than write 2,000 words about the possibilities, better to wait until after that game to figure it out.

This win didn't come as easily as might have been expected, but a road division win is always tough.  And the Pats have traditionally had more trouble winning in Miami than in New York against Buffalo or the Jets.  The Patriots have a lot more firepower than Miami, but they mostly held it in reserve, choosing to go with safe passes and throw-aways rather than risk big plays down the field.  Given the lack of Dolphins deep-threats, the strategy seemed sound, and it worked pretty well.

Miami played tight to the line to stop the run and disrupt the timing of the passing game, and it had the desired effect.  Tom Brady was sacked 4 times, posted his lowest passer rating of the year (74.8) and his lowest yards per attempt this season (5.95), and threw his first interception in six games.  In his defense, it seemed the game plan was to stay conservative.  All eight pass plays of 11-yards or more were short passes that went for more yard after the catch.  And in fact, Brady's INT came on one of his few long pass attempts, up the sideline to a blanketed Aaron Hernandez.

Among receivers, Hernandez came up big in this game, 8 catches for 97 yards and some key yards-after-catch.  He and Wes Welker (12 for 103 and 1 touchdown) were the receiving stars, targeted 31 times between them and accounting for 10 of 14 passing first downs.  Welker tied the NFL record with his 17th game with 10 catches or more (trivia question: who shares that record with Welker; answer below).  The rest of the receivers were nondescript, with Julian Edelman leaving with a foot injury and Brandon Lloyd completely silent until the very end of the game.  And you know the receiving corps is getting thin when Matthew Slater comes off the bench to fill in.

The running game didn't help much, at least early in the game.  The Pats couldn't run outside and the O-line really misses the blocking ability of Rob Gronkowski (out with a broken arm).  The Patriots netted just 10 yards rushing at the half.  They did get it together for a game-sealing 16-play drive that consumed 7:18 of clock time and all three Dolphins timeouts.  They succeeded by abandoning the idea of running wide and simply pounding it straight ahead with a combination of Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, and Danny Woodhead.  After just 46 yards through three quarters, they came up with 62 in the final stanza and were blowing the Dolphins off the line.

The offensive line misses Logan Mankins' toughness and ability and (as mentioned) Gronkowski's blocking.  Donald Thomas receives a lot of praise, but frankly I don't see why.  He gives up too much pressure in the passing game, and the team has a lot more success running to the other side.  Not to denigrate Thomas; he's a fill-in for a reason.  But the offensive line had an up-and-down game, giving up too much pressure and providing no running game until the end.  Oh, and some of that was on the offensive play-calling -- more on that later.

On the defensive line, Trevor Scott improved on suspended Jermaine Cunningham's improvement from last year.  Scott got two sacks, one QB pressure, and forced a fumble.  Rob Ninkovich is coming back to reality from his stellar first half, and Vince Wilfork continues to drive hard to the end of the season, making plays that don't always show up on the stat sheet but that are very effective at stopping drives.  The rest of the line played only okay, losing outside contain several times and giving up some big runs -- but overall, they mostly contained the quarterback, which was probably their job for the day.

The linebackers played very well, with Brandon Spikes starring against both the run and pass.  And Jerod Mayo got six tackles and a huge sack that forced the Dolphins to take a field goal.  It wasn't perfect, with a few long runs squeezing through, but the team held Miami to 3.7 yards a carry and receivers made big plays mostly on long passes that were the secondary's responsibility.  Miami might have lacked the underneath play-makers to attack the linebackers vulnerability against the pass, but even so, the middle-zones were controlled much better this week.

The secondary was trick-or-treat.  Aqib Talib was close on several plays but not quite close enough.  And the safeties took a step back in covering the deep ball, arriving late on several outside passes and getting beaten on two plays where the Dolphins QB simply missed the receivers.  If those plays had been completed, the game could have gone against the Patriots.  Kyle Arrington and Alfonzo Dennard compete like demons out there, but there's no hiding the reasons they were an undrafted free agent and a seventh-round pick, respectively.  The team needs Patrick Chung back and more playing time for Steven Gregory to get back into the swing of things.  That would allow them to move Devin McCourty back to corner, and he'd be an improvement over anyone not named Talib.

Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed yet another make-able field goal, and no blaming the snap or hold this time (which were both perfect).  He clearly has some confidence problems, and he needs to straighten that out before the playoffs.  Post-season games are usually close, and missed field goals can cost you a game.  So you can survive them now, but in the playoffs, it can cost you your season..  On the plus side, Edelman had two nifty punt returns before leaving with his injury.

The offensive play-calling was suspect in the first half.  Too many outside running plays and not enough no-huddle.  Although the fake end-around/screen pass to Vereen was such a beautifully designed play that you could give coordinator Josh McDaniels a pass on the bad running calls.  And one strange thing was that most everything worked better out of the spread offense, including inside handoffs.  Lined up in the I-formation or in the standard pro set, the Pats had a lot more trouble moving the ball.

On defense, the most curious coaching decision of the day was to run stunts against a mobile quarterback.  On multiple occasions, this left 350+ pound Kyle Love chasing the nimble Ryan Tannehill, a race that Love had no chance to win.  The better plan against mobile quarterbacks is probably to keep the fastest guys (Rob Ninkovich and Justin Francis/Chandler Jones) outside and let the big guys push up the middle.  Or at least put Scott and Ninkovich on one side and let them stunt -- neither of them is the behemoth that Love (or Wilfork or Brandon Deaderick) is.

So where does this leave us?  Seven weeks ago, the entire AFC East was tied at 3-3.  Since then, the Patriots are 6-0 and every other team is 2-4.  The Pats have an extra day to prepare for their next game, and they'll need it for the Monday night tilt with the AFC-leading 11-1 Houston Texans.  The division championship is to be savored, but the Patriots have to refocus on Houston quickly if they entertain any ideas about a first-round playoff bye.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  The Patriots have a chance to sweep the division this season, having gone 5-0 so far with one game remaining against the Dolphins.  The only other time Tom Brady achieved this was 2007, the year the Pats went 16-0 in the regular season.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: Yesterday marked Brady's first December victory in Miami.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "With a solid defense, imagine how much better the Dolphins could have been if they chose Matt Ryan instead of an offensive lineman with the first pick way back when.  Parcells picking the groceries..."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  9-3!

PPS.  Welker tied none other than Jerry Rice with 17 games of 10+ catches.