Patriots 2019 Preseason Preview

Well, hi there, how have you been lately?!

The Patriots finish a semi-eventful off-season tomorrow night, when they take on the Detroit Lions in the preseason. There's been a lot of angst about next year and the year after. But take my advice -- enjoy this year, it could be a special one!

As for the preseason, here are four things I'll be watching for when the real players and scrubs take the field the next four weeks.

1. N'Keal Harry

Harry was the Patriots first pick in the draft, a 6' 4" 225-pound receiver out of Arizona State. By all accounts he's had a great camp, making spectacular catches in most practices and building trust with QB Tom Brady.

Harry will be important in the passing game, with Rob Gronkowski "retired" and wideout Josh Gordon not reinstated yet. So I'll be watching for him to do those little things, block downfield and in the running game, fight for jump balls, and be in the right place at the right time for Brady to hit him in stride.

2. Left Tackle

Long-gone Trent Brown had a very good year here last season. But the Pats coaches trusted the position to redshirt freshman Isaiah Wynn and coach Dante Scarnecchia. Wynn was drafted in the first round last year but never saw the field in the regular season. And Scarnecchia is an offensive-line magician, who will either mold Wynn into a good LT or plug in someone else.

I'll be looking for how many snaps Wynn plays, whether QB pressure comes from his side of the formation, and how he handles stunts and games up front. It'll also be interesting to see how he run blocks, given the Pats recent emphasis on running the ball.

3. Two Linebackers

Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jamie Collins are listed as backups on the depth chart. But if I had to guess, one or both will start by mid-season at the latest.

During last year's preseason, Bentley was really the only defensive player who stood out. He was all over the field and seemed to grasp the defense much quicker than most veterans can. Alas he was injured early and didn't get much playing time in the 2018 regular season.

Collins was traded to NFL Hell in Cleveland for two years. He got paid there, and now that he's willing to take less to win, he's back in the fold. He wasn't great toward the end, but he knows the defense and when he is on-point, he was great when paired with starter Dont'a Hightower.

I'll be looking for continued playmaking by Bentley and a return to form for Collins. And I will keep an eye on their playing time, especially with the starters.

4. Defensive End

Trey Flowers took his considerable talents to the aforementioned Lions this off-season. Who can blame him -- every player deserves a shot at one big payday. And that was his chance.

The Pats brought in Michael Bennett to help replace him. But Bennett is more of a stout player than a long-and-lean freak of nature like Flowers.

So I'll be watching how Bennett does holding the edge against the run, whether they have either DE drop into coverage at all, and whether anyone botches their assignments (which is easy in this defense).

Summary

There you are; four things to watch in four preseason games. Hope you enjoy the games and that the Patriots stay healthy.

Enjoy the summery weather and I'll check back with a season preview sooner than you think!

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Fish Squished, Patriots Rout Miami 38-7

If you took the Dolphins getting 30 points; you and they still lost yesterday :P

The Patriots outclassed the current AFC East leaders, throttling them 38-7 in a game not even that close. The victory helped the Pats pick up a game on Miami in the division (still one game back), and also on the Bills and Jets, both of which lost.

This game was the polar opposite of last week. Everyone appeared to play or coach much better, and it'll be hard to pick out many negatives (though that usually doesn't stop me). But the offensive turnaround in this game was helped greatly by three players who weren't with the team last year.

Rookie running back Sony Michel was consistently good from beginning to end. He ran with power and elusiveness, toting the rock 25 times for 112 yards and his first NFL touchdown. He was not involved in the passing game, as he has had trouble picking up the routes. But improvement there should come with time. Meanwhile, it's nice to have a semi-replacement for Dion Lewis.

Oft-troubled receiver Josh Gordon was key to keeping three drives alive, and all three ended in scores (17 total points). His first reception with the Patriots was a first-down grab on third-and-six. Early in the second quarter, an incompletion thrown his way drew a flag for another third-down conversion. And in the second half, his second reception converted yet another third down. Nothing earth-shaking, but a good start to his New England career.

And even oft-maligned receiver/kick returner Cordarrelle Patterson got into the act, with an electrifying 55 yards touchdown bomb. He also had a nice run on an end-around, and should have drawn an interference call on a quick throw in the end zone on the first drive. Regrettably, he fell down yet again after catching a swing pass... sigh. But overall, serious improvement in his pass receiving.

As for the regulars on offense, QB Tom Brady played a decent game: 23 of 35 (65.7%), for 274 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 94.2 QB rating. That rating would be higher is he'd stop throwing long passes to Phillip Dorsett, two of which were picked off in this game. But he also had a ridiculously great throw on James White's touchdown, lofting it high before White even broke to the corner of the end zone.

Dorsett had an outstanding touchdown catch of his own, summersaulting through the air to get the ball just before it hit the ground. White also was his usual dependable self: 8 catches for 68 yards, and a great TD run. And tight end Rob Gronkowski was okay, but had to leave with an ankle injury.

The O-line did a great job blocking for the run, and an okay job pass protecting. Brady wasn't sacked, but he did get hit seven times and was hurried a fair amount.

The defense was nearly unrecognizable from the week before in Detroit. They played with energy and speed, blew up plays before they got started, and used new rush techniques that I'll get to in a moment.

The names on the defensive chart are almost unknown. Jonathan Jones is a DB who led the team in tackles with eight and knocked away a pass. John Simon joined the team about 10 minutes ago and had five tackles, including a sack for ten yards! And the teams only INT came from J.C. Jackson, who had played 12 defensive snaps all year before yesterday.

The secondary did a great job of taking away the opposition's first read, forcing the QB to wait in the pocket for an extra beat. And that is when the Patriots secret weapon came into use: they actually rushed the quarterback for a change!

I know that seems radical, but multiple times in this game, they threw off their "rush under control" agenda. They had the interior linemen simply bull-rush toward the QB, pushing the pocket back. At the same time, outside rushers were closing in from the edges, and several plays featured delayed blitzes to further confuse the Dolphins. And that rattled the Miami QB into a bunch of bad throws.

It could be this was only used because the game was in hand and the Patriots didn't fear Miami's running game. But a little birdie told me these strategies will be refined during the season, to be put to the test if/when the Patriots make the playoffs. (And yes, by "little birdie" I mean that voice inside my head that channels Bill Belichick.)

It wasn't perfect on defense, but it was much better than the last two games. Most impressive of all was pitching a shutout until garbage time, despite Miami starting four drives on their own 36, 36, 38, and 40 yard lines (none of which resulted in a score).

Which brings us to special teams, the one weak spot in the game. ST Coach Joe Judge, please have kicker Stephen Gostkowski boot his kickoffs through the end zone whenever possible. He kicked off seven times yesterday, and only once did Miami start inside its own 25 yard line. Stop with the misdirection, trickery, and "cunning plans" -- they aren't working. Gostkowski has one of the strongest legs in the NFL, use it!

So where does that leave us? 2-2 is right where your humble blogger predicted they'd be at this point in the season. With a winnable game against the Colts this Thursday (at Gillette), and with Miami traveling to Cincy, the Pats could be tied for first place by next Sunday.

Biggest on-going issue: Inconsistency. There will be no AFC East crown or playoff run if the Patriots don't play more consistently going forward. The return of Julian Edelman should help, as will continued improvement from Michel. But until they put together three good games, it'll be hard to trust them come December/January.

Non-Brady MVP: After some internal squabbling, it's James White. 8 carries for 44 yards, and 8 catches for 68 yards, and two touchdowns speak for themselves. (Note: it was almost Phillip Dorsett, but his drop of a long pass in the second half cost him the award this week.)

Statistical oddity: Brady tied Vinny Testaverde for most different players one QB has thrown a touchdown to (both have 70). The difference is, Testaverde played for seven teams, Brady just one. (And watch for another entry on this later this year; Brady hasn't thrown one to Michel or Gordon yet!)

Weekly water-cooler wisdom: "Is it time warm up 'Meet the new boss, same as the old boss' yet?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-2!

Patriots Flattened by Lions, 26-10

The Patriots played pretty much like this blog entry -- a day late and a dollar short -- and came up lame in a 26-10 loss. The game leaves them at 1-2, two full games behind 3-0 Miami in the division. Up next, those same Dolphins come to town for what is a sneaky important game this early in the year.

The Pats actually scored to end the first half and again the first time they got the ball in the second half. Unfortunately, that was all the scoring they did. Aside from those two drives (the TD was on a short field after an INT), they averaged 3.75 plays per drive, including three consecutive three-and-outs to start the game -- the first time that has happened to the Pats game since Belichick became head coach.

So when you hear people blame the defense, take it with two grains of salt. The offense bears its share of the blame, first for not scoring enough, and second for never giving the defense a chance to catch its breath. After all, the Lions D only made 39 combined tackles, the Patriots had to make 71 of them. And if you need more proof, time-of-possession was: Detroit 39:15, New England 20:45. Blech!

Pretty much everyone on the Patriots had a bad game. And it didn't help that they were missing three key pieces on defense: Trey Flowers, Patrick Chung, and Eric Rowe. Oh, and before you scream that Rowe isn't any good, his replacements were significantly worse, hard as that might be to believe.

Duron Harmon was not good in place of Chung. And the rotation of corners were worse that Rowe, who at least competes and does his best. As for Flowers, the Pats have absolutely no one on the roster to replace him, so when he is out, it just hurts.

On defense, the "bad pie" falls mostly to linebackers who can't cover in the passing game (or don't know their assignments yet), a defensive line that got pushed around all night in the running game and got no pressure on the QB, and confusion that culminated in a "12 men on the field" play that we usually see from other teams.

Dont'a Hightower looks limited by injury. Elandon Roberts hasn't progressed. And for the time being, Ja'Whaun Bentley (who got his first INT) is good but still misses assignments due to inexperience. Without a trade, there are no reinforcements coming. So better hope that Hightower gets healthy and Bentley continues to improve.

On the D-line, at least Deatrich Wise Jr. showed some spirit. He sacked the QB once and also got another QB hit, and he tried to get his teammates to up their emotional intensity. But it was for naught; because former D-coordinator Matt Patricia knew exactly how to slice up the Pats defense.

Offensively, it really does come down to execution. On the first possession of the night, Tom Brady threw a deep pass to Chris Hogan on third-and-four, when he had a running back open over the middle for an easy first down. Result: punt. Same thing on the second drive, except it was to Phillip Dorsett this time. Result: punt. And on the next drive, they tried a run up the middle on third-and-one and got stuffed. Result: punt.

Each of those times, a better play call or better execution would likely have gotten the first down. But they are taking too many deep shots on third downs, and it has been years and years since they could line up in a running formation and overpower the defense to get a first down.

Offenses hate to be called "finesse," so I'll just say the Pats offense depends on deception and trickery more than most. That is its strength, and they need to play to it more often.

Sure there are a lack of talented receivers, and the offensive line has only been okay this year. But it's execution under pressure that is killing them. When Julian Edelman returns, things will look better. However, the team won't be doing much this year if they can't get Chris Hogan or Sony Michel integrated into the offense.

The special teams standout was returner Cordarrelle Patterson. He averaged 28.3 yards per kickoff return, with a long of 45 yards. And even though it looked like the Lions kickoffs were low and short, I'll take the one positive from it that I can.

Where they go from here is up to them. They have the talent to rip off three straight wins and bring the universe back into alignment. But if they somehow lose Sunday, they'd already be looking at a three-game divisional deficit four weeks into the season. A steep mountain to climb, especially if you lose your home game to Miami, and that's who you trail.

So where does that leave us? Time to get back to basics. Stop with the long throws on third-down and take the easy firsts that are available. Stop trying to integrate Patterson in the offense and let him just return kicks and run "go" routes to gas opposing defenses. And stop thinking your talent will win out - this is the NFL, you take the game or it gets taken from you.

Biggest on-going issue: I'm sick of hearing it's the defense -- it's the offensive execution and some of Brady's decision-making. The defense has problems, but it is exposed the more the offense bungles things up.

Non-Brady MVP: Deatrich Wise, Jr., who at least tried to fire up his teammates.

Statistical Oddity: This is the first year since the introduction of overtime that four teams are 1-1-1 after three weeks. (Trivia question: can you name the four teams? Answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler wisdom: "Remember: the sky was falling after the KC game in 2014. And that ended with a fifth Lombardi trophy."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-2!

PPS. Trivia Answer
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The Packers, Vikings, Steelers, and Browns are all 1-1-1 this season.

Pats Fall To Jags, 31-20

In a game that was pretty much just awful, the Patriots dropped their first contest to the Jaguars, 31-20. The loss puts them at 1-1, tied for second place in the AFC East, behind the Dolphins. Next up is a Sunday night tilt in Detroit next week, facing old friend Matt Patricia's pathetic Lions team.

Going off last week's "September is the preseason" theme, if it was, the Patriots would cut about half the team based on yesterday. 33% third-down conversions (4-of-12) doesn't even tell the story; they had play after play there to be made on third-down and failed time and again. The pass rush fell asleep after Trey Flowers went out with a concussion. And two special teams gaffes literally cost them a chance to get back into the game late.

Offense

Pleasant Surprise: It was probably second tight end Jacob Hollister, who caught 3 passes for 35 yards, nearly matching his 4 catches for 42 yards from all of 2017. He also had some decent blocks, but honestly, if I'm scraping this far into the barrel, it obviously wasn't a great offensive day for the Pats.

Steady Eddie: James White, who caught 7 passes for 73 yards. He had one really nice run after catch, but unfortunately came up short on a third-and-five near the end of the game, forcing a Patriots punt.

Disappointment: QB Tom Brady was off-target on several throws, overthrew a 40-yard bomb on a third-and-five when the game was still winnable, and chose to throw to White on that fateful third down when wideout Phillip Dorsett was wide open for the first down. Just a really bad day for Brady.

Overall: They averaged 3.4 yards a rush, and 6.3 yards per pass attempt, both really mediocre numbers. They undertargeted Rob Gronkowski, overtargeted Coradarrelle Patterson, and just blew it time after time on third downs. A very poor performance indeed.

Defense

Pleasant Surprise: Could it be that Kyle Van Noy is rounding into shape after all this time? It wasn't just that he led the team with six tackles or that he got his first INT since 2016. He also had a pass defended, and made some decent plays against the run. (Probably a one-game thing, but we can always hope...)

Steady Eddie: Sure Stephon Gilmore gave up a touchdown, but he also made five solo tackles, forced a fumble, and knocked away two other passes. In year two, he is what wanted him to be in year one - an excellent corner who covers one-on-one without help.

Disappointment: So many to choose from, but defensive end Adrian Clayborn gets the nod from me. He continually overshot the QB pocket, at least twice letting Blake Bortles run for easy first downs through a spot Clayborn vacated. Sure he got two hits on Bortles, but what good did that do when he gave up first downs instead of getting the team off the field.

Overall: Also bad yesterday were Eric Rowe, Devin McCourty, Jason McCourty, and new linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley. Bentley's performance can be explained as growing pains; what excuse do the rest of these guys have?

Special Teams

Pleasant Surprise: None.

Steady Eddie: Punter Ryan Allen averaged 45.3 net yards per kick, had one downed inside the 20, and only had one returned (once the team was gassed late in the game).

Disappointment: Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a field goal early and then blew it with a kickoff that landed one yard inside the end zone when he was told to have it land just short of the end zone.

Overall: The Pats also messed up when Jacksonville jumped offside on a fourth-and-inches late, and the entire punt team forgot to move to draw the penalty. Coach Belichick was livid on the sidelines after, and rightfully so.

So where does this leave us? 1-1 is right where I thought they'd be at this point. Didn't expect this bad of a beating, but the opening schedule was probably the toughest part of their 2018 slate. If Flowers doesn't come back next week... hell, it won't make a difference against the Lions. Will it?

Biggest on-going issue: This week it was the complete lack of pressure once Flowers went down. The reason Bortles looked great is he was under no pressure. And the Patriots don't have the defensive backfield to hold up without a pass rush. Is Chandler Jones available in a trade?

Non-Brady MVP: The clock operator in Jacksonville, who kept things moving so the game would end quickly

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In just two weeks, receiver Phillip Dorsett has as many receptions (12) in 2018 as he had all of 2017, despite playing in almost every game last year. He also has more touchdowns (1) in 2018 than he had in 2017 (0).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Pats win in January in Foxboro, Jags win in September in Florida. What does that say about how a playoff rematch would go?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-1!

Patriots Down Detroit With Dominant Defense, 34-9

Tom Brady's first NFL game was mop-up duty in a 34-9 drubbing by the Detroit Lions in 2000. Yesterday he returned the favor, dominating the first half and watching his defense shut down Detroit, in a 34-9 win for his Patriots. The victory put the team three full games ahead of Miami in the AFC East and two full games (with tie-breakers) ahead of every other team in the AFC. Next week is their toughest remaining game; in Green Bay to take on the Packers.

Even though the Patriots offense doubled-up what Detroit usually allows per game (15.6 ppg before yesterday), it was the defense that led the day. Against a team with plenty of weapons, the Pats allowed their receivers one 42-yard catch and nothing else of consequence. All-world receiver Calvin Johnson was shut out in the first half and even when the Lions got into scoring range, the Patriots defense held them to field goal attempts (and they  missed one of those, in the first half). And allowing just nine points to any NFL team is a successful outing.

(Note: with both the offense and defense in high-gear, the Patriots lead the league in point-differential. Trivia question: how many seasons has Tom Brady led the Patriots to the best point-differential in the NFL? And if you dare, how many of those years can you name? Answers below...)

Cornerback Darrelle Revis was the defensive star of the game. He had four passes defended, including a mano-y-mano knockdown of what should have been a Johnson touchdown. Additionally, his tight coverage forced the Lions to use the running game and third- and fourth-receivers. Fellow corner Brandon Browner had two passes defended, and Logan Ryan had a typical up-and-down day, with one pass defended and at least one important pass given up -- to go with an interception.

Safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung were among the team leaders in tackles (seven and six, respectively), and Chung added a pass defended. Additionally, Chung showed great instincts in helping stop the run. And McCourty played the deep safety to Johnson's side, making sure he did little, if any, damage in the game.

The linebackers do not seem to have been affected by the loss of Jerod Mayo. Dont'a Hightower led the team with eight tackles, and he has done a great job getting after the ball, be it hitting the QB, in pass coverage, or stuffing the run. Hightower struggled last year when Mayo went down, but he's adapted admirably this year.

It helps that Jamie Collins continues his excellent play. He was exceptionally good in Indianapolis last week, and against Detroit he showed a ton of versatility, in all phases of the defense. It also helps that Akeem Ayers tossed in a QB hit, a sack, and three tackles of his own. No one could be sure how Ayers would play when he arrived in New England, but he's helped replace the QB pressure Chandler Jones applied before his injury.

And speaking of the defensive line, it's difficult to see how they are doing what they are doing. Vince Wilfork and Rob Ninkovich are still there, and both doing their usual great job on the inside and outside, respectively. But around them, it's Zack Moore, rookie Dominique Easley, Chris Jones, and recently acquired Alan Branch. Jones hasn't done much of note, but Easley and Branch are doing a decent job filling in.

The D-line clearly does more stunting, zone-blitz schemes, and also fake blitzes than they ever have. (Note: this probably tells you the coaches trust their safeties and linebackers to cover up against the run when teams trap-block against those schemes.) And given how vanilla the Patriots defense usually is, this seems to confuse team after team. And maybe, just maybe, it shows you what the Patriots *should* have been doing all these years, rather than their "stay disciplined and do your job" approach, which didn't exactly tear it up in 2009 or 2010.

On offense, last week it was the running game, this week it was the quarterback. Given how stout the Lions run defense is, the Pats threw the ball 53 times and ran just 20. Tom Brady wasn't sacked once on those 53 drop-backs, though that was owing to his quick release. He did get hit four times, and a few of those were very quick penetrations, but Brady got rid of the ball in a flash all game long. He ended up 38 of 53 (72%) for 349 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 94.0 QB rating.

With all the completed passes, there should have been more players with catches. But it was still an okay job of spreading the ball around. The Lions tried to take away tight end Rob Gronkowski, so ended up with only 5 catches for 78 yards. But "the other tight end," Tim Wright, had 5 catches of his own, for just 36 yards, but 2 big touchdowns. Wright's production has been inconsistent. He has four games with zero catches, but has notched six touchdowns on the season. Not bad for a guy who arrived just before opening day.

Receiver Julian Edelman took some hard hits while catching 11 for 89 yards. And Brandon LaFell had some big first downs among his 9 grabs and 98 yards. Edelman needs the other receivers to step up, because he takes a real beating out there. But props to LaFell, who I dubbed "LaFail" earlier in the year. He's worked his way into that third-receiver role, and the team will need him and Wright to be productive when teams try to shut down Edelman and Gronkowski.

The running backs were more of an afterthought in this one. Last week's hero, Jonas Gray, was late for Friday practice, so he sat for the game, replaced by newly re-signed LeGarrette Blount. Blount had 78 yards on 12 carries, but that was mostly in garbage time. In the first half, the Pats ran the ball just six times, controlling the ball with the pass. And Shane Vereen was more of a receiver threat (8 catches, 48 yards) than a run threat (8 rushes, 12 yards).

The offensive line did a pretty good job. Brady was pressured some, but the Lions front-seven is very good, so that is to be expected. Both of the tackles (Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder) had penalties on the day. But the only big whiff of the day was another interior rusher who came 100% free despite being double-teamed. The coaches need to work on controlling the right-side A-gap on quick screens, because that can lead to very, very bad plays. Also, no one expected the Pats to run very well, so ending up with 90 yards on 20 carries is a decent day.

Special teams was a blowout in favor of the Patriots. Punter Ryan Allen made the play of the day; scooping up a bad snap and booting a 66-yard punt that was returned just one-yard. Danny Amendola had an 81-yard kickoff return that led to the Patriots second touchdown. And on a day when Detroit's kicker missed a field goal with the game still in doubt, kicker Stephen Gostkowski nailed his two and gave up just 27 return yards on six kickoffs.

Last, but certainly not least, the coaches should take a bow for their excellent game plans. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia's decision to bracket Johnson and single-cover Golden Tate with his best defender couldn't have worked out much better. Tate's only long reception came against zone, and Johnson was shut down until the game was out of reach. And on offense, wearing down the Detroit defense with up-tempo passing was a much better choice than trying to run into front-seven.

So where does that leave us? 9-2 and with that two-game lead over the field. Not a bad place to be with five weeks to go. Green Bay will be the team's toughest test remaining on the schedule. Some are calling it a Super Bowl Preview. I could live with that if it comes true!

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In the second quarter, linebacker Jamie Collins was called for penalties twice in three plays. But he wasn't the guilty party in either case -- the referee called the wrong number both times. I've seen that happen from time to time, but never twice in three plays to the same player.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If LaFell and Wright continue to be productive, the Pats won't have to fear anyone in the playoffs. That's right, I said playoffs!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-2!

PPS. Trivia answer: Under Tom Brady, the Patriots have led the NFL in point-differential four times: 2004, 2007, 2010, and 2012.

Patriots Dominate Broncos, 43-21

Your New England Patriots dominated the previously dominant Broncos, hitting them hard and fast in a 43-21 drubbing at chilly/windy Gillette Stadium. The win puts the Pats in familiar territory, first place in the entire AFC, and with wins in hand over two of the other division leaders (Broncos and Bengals). The team has their bye this week, and then they play the other division leader, the Colts, in Indianapolis the week after.

This game was too close early, with the Patriots leaving points on the board in the first quarter, and ending that quarter behind 7-3. Then they scored on six of their next eight possessions, while the Broncos scored on only two of their next eight, and the rout was on. And with 94 points in the last two games, the offense is obviously rounding into form.

Quarterback Tom Brady threw his first interception in since week four, on a tipped ball, no less. He was mostly magnificent, finishing 33 of 53, 333 yards, 4 touchdowns, that 1 INT, and a 97.4 passer rating. And even though he was sacked just once, he used movement in the pocket and quick releases to avoid sometimes very quick pressure (Denver hit him eight times in the game).

The only problem with Brady's game was his misfiring on several "wheel" routes to running back Shane Vereen, and several off-target passes that were slightly behind receivers (including on his interception). But given that the Broncos defense is one of the best in the league, not a bad day chucking the ball.

The receivers were all terrific. Tight end Rob Gronkowski and receiver Julian Edelman pulled in 9 catches and 1 touchdown each, with 105 and 89 receiving yards, respectively. Gronkowski is a beast these days, plowing through defenders after the reception, and making one of the catches of the season, a one-handed grab at the goal line. And Edelman was unstoppable in the slot, coming up with five big first downs.

Danny Amendola also had two big catches for first downs, indicating the Broncos don't have great slot-receiver coverage. And Brandon LaFell had 6 grabs for 43 yards and a touchdown.  In fact, maybe the most important numbers are 9, 9, 6, 5 -- the number of receptions of the top-four Patriots receivers. They are extremely difficult to defend when they spread the ball around like that.

The running game left a lot to be desired. The Patriots squeezed out 66 yards on 25 carries, for a paltry 2.6ypc. They were also tackled for a loss four times, and got just 3 rushing first downs on the day (even Brady failed on his patented QB sneak). Jonas Gray and Vereen had nowhere to go, several times beating their linemen to the hole, which usually meant there was no hole there.

Which brings us to the continuing saga of the offensive line. Still too much inside push, although that is getting better. Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, and Bryan Stork were all beaten at specific points in the game, and the inability to complete "wheel" routes indicates that the O-line didn't do it's job on the outside. Overall they are improving, and given the level of competition, this was a decent game. But it isn't perfect, and those flaws will look a lot worse against the Colts in their version of the TunderDome in two weeks.

It was a different story on defense, where the Patriots coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for how they mixed things up. They started in a 3-3-5 defense and kept the five DBs on the field most of the game. It was a great plan of complimentary defense, with just enough pressure on the quarterback to force quick throws, enough pass coverage to ensure those throws had to be pinpoint, and enough discipline to limit the running attack to 43 yards and 2.5ypc.

I've never seen lineman Rob Ninkovich drop into coverage so much, nor have I seen the team throw so many last-second blitzes up the middle. And they rarely employ the zone-blitz, but used it to great effect on the first interception.

Ninkovich and Vince Wilfork starred on the defensive line. Ninkovich ended up with the INT, a pass defended, and 3 tackles. And Wilfork's 2 tackles don't tell the entire story -- he clogged the middle and pushed the pile toward Manning all night long. The Broncos offensive line is very good, so just battling them to a stalemate in the running game and getting some pressure out of the front three is a big deal. It allowed the Patriots to do so much with the defense.

Linebacker Jamie Collins played the Swiss-Army Knife on Sunday. He dropped into coverage, had a tackle for a loss, got a huge stop on a third-down that forced a punt, and he sliced through the center of the Broncos O-line multiple times, putting quick pressure on Peyton Manning to throw the ball before he was ready. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower did the same, but to a lesser degree of effectiveness than Collins. And newcomer Akeem Ayers got the Patriots only sack, along with a QB hit.

The secondary play was difficult to decipher. Corner Darrelle Revis got five tackles and defended a pass, but he was in the area for multiple long pass completions. Corner Malcolm Butler was repeatedly burned, but came up big with a pass defended late when the Broncos were trying to claw back into the game. Safety Patrick Chung had three passes defended and eight tackles, but he and safety Devin McCourty both choked on a touchdown to Denver tight end Julius Thomas. And corner Brandon Browner had an INT and a pass defended, but he continues to pile up the penalty yards.

Maybe the lesson here is that it was never going to be perfect against Peyton Manning. But the corners and safeties did their best when they had chances, and held the Broncos to 23 points, despite the dizzying numbers put up by the Broncos. Maybe no team will shut down all those receivers; the best they can do is survive them.

On special teams, Julian Edelman set a new Patriots record with his fourth punt-return touchdown, a long and winding run that put the Pats up 20-7 in the second quarter. And on this very windy day, kicker Stephen Gostkowski was a perfect 3-3 on field goals, and did a decent job kicking off, even into the stiff breeze. This is quite the contrast to the Broncos special teams, which had a difficult day handling the elements, yet again (remember last year's muffed punt to lose the game in OT?).

The coaching staff put together a great game plan. They mixed in 7-man fronts with 3-man pass rushes, delayed blitzes, stunts and games up front, zone blitzes, man-to-man press coverage, short cover-two, deep cover-three, and even the old "meandering" defense, where players wander around near the line and then attack at the snap. And on offense, they exploited mismatches at slot receiver and tight end, and when the Broncos adjusted, they threw to a single-covered LaFell outside the numbers.

So where does this leave us? Right where you'd expect by week nine -- leading the AFC East and the AFC. The Pats have a brutal schedule coming up, with tilts against division leaders Indy and Detroit, and road games against 5-4 San Diego and 5-3 Green Bay. If they survive the next month, they have three AFC East games to end the season, two of them at home, so that should be fine.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The last time the Patriots scored 94 points in consecutive home games, the Denver Broncos were the second team they beat. (Trivia question: name the year, and if you can, the other team involved... answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Broncos really had eight turnovers: two interceptions, a punt-return touchdown, a missed field goal, and 0-4 on fourth downs. Not going to win very often like that."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 7-2!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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In 2011, the Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 49-21 to close out the regular season. They then drubbed the Tim Tebow Broncos, 45-10 in the divisional round of the playoffs, scoring exactly 94 points in two consecutive home games.

2011 Lions Thrash 2010 Patriots, 34-10

What would happen if the 2011 Detroit Lions played the 2010 Patriots? Well, that scenario took place in Saturday’s preseason game, and the match up quickly turned into a mismatch.  The Patriots appeared very mortal in a 34-10 loss to a thoroughly dominant and motivated Detroit Lions team. The Patriots left most of their significant 2011 additions at home for the game, and the advantage clearly went to this year’s Lions squad.

On Saturday, the Patriots started exactly two players who were not on the roster last year: work-in-progress receiver Chad Ochocinco and part-time defensive end Mark Anderson. They did get some playing time for rookie offensive tackle Nate Solder and free agent defensive end Andre Carter. But no Albert Haynesworth or Shaun Ellis on the defensive line, no Leigh Bodden or Ras-I Dowling in the secondary, and no Stevan Ridley or Shane Vareen in the running back rotation.

And so it went that 2011 Detroit’s starters posted a decisive 27-10 beat down of the 2010 Patriots starters. Which makes it pretty clear that if Matthew Stafford had played last Thanksgiving the Lions would likely have walked off the field with a victory.

The more important question is what this game tells us about both teams. In a nutshell, here is what I learned:

The Lions aren’t a 16-0 squad (sorry Ndamukong Suh), but if Stafford stays healthy, they are a legitimate playoff contender. The Lions quarterback makes great decisions and has excellent pocket presence, and with a lot of talent at wide receiver, the lack of a go-to running back should not matter in the pass happy NFL.

They are also fast and big on defense, with a head coach who oversaw the best Tennessee Titans’ defenses (Jim Schwartz) and a very talented defensive coordinator (Gunther Cunningham). Their front four, lead by Suh, created havoc on most every Patriots passing play, and most of the time Detroit’s defensive line will make up for what they lack behind them.

The Lions did not excel running the ball or stopping the run last year, and appear headed for the same short-comings in 2011. But the NFL is a quarterback’s league, so if Stafford stays upright for 16 games the Lions they should contend for a playoff berth. Their biggest problem is their division, which has both participants from the 2010 NFC Championship Game: the Bears and Packers. But the rest of the NFC divisions appear weak enough to allow one (or even two) NFC North teams in as wild card entrants.

As for the Patriots, their talent grab on the defensive line won’t amount to much if they can’t get the secondary healthy and playing together. The Lions offense did not slow down when edge rusher Carter entered the game or when the Patriots blitzed cornerbacks to get pressure. Stafford and backup quarterback Shaun Hill simply went with short routes and quick releases to defeat the blitz.

Last Saturday’s secondary looked a lot like last year’s, with Devin McCourty holding his own against one receiver and Kyle Arrington, Darius Butler, and Jonathan Wilhite giving up play after play. On Saturday, Stafford went 12 for 14, 200 yards, 2 touchdowns, and completed passes to 8 different receivers -- in the first half. That “bend and then break” defense probably looked too familiar (and a little frightening) to Patriots fans.

New England will likely get their pass protection schemes straightened out, and there is no indication that Bodden and McCourty won’t start the season together. Add in either Ellis or Haynesworth to an already improved defensive line, and the 2011 Patriots would have given the 2011 Lions a much tougher time.

This game wasn’t exactly a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. But it showed that Schwartz has remade the Lions to compete with one of the league’s best teams. Pretty good progress for a team that too often used to compete for the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft.

- Scott

Patriots vs. Lions -- what to watch for

If you live in Patriots country, Hurricane Irene will probably force you inside for the evening, so here are four things to watch in tonight’s preseason game against the Lions.

1.  Injuries at running back make it difficult to predict who might play, but no matter who is on the field, there will be something to watch for. Impressive rookie Stevan Ridley makes quick cuts and has excellent burst and down field moves. But if he plays, watch how he does in pass protection. If he learns his role in protecting Tom Brady well, he could be your opening day starter.

Fellow rookie Shane Vereen appears nearly recovered enough from a hamstring injury and he could play against Detroit. If he gets on the field, watch how quickly he cuts and reaches full speed, both would be problems if the hamstring isn’t ready. Also, if he plays with the starting unit, he should average over five yards a carry, because the Patriots offensive line has been tearing it up this preseason.

If Danny Woodhead gets to play, keep an eye on him in pass protection or blocking down field. After his concussion last week, he might shy away from contact instinctively, though one would not expect that, given his well-known toughness. Also, he has averaged eight yards per carry this preseason, so track that closely and you’ll know whether or not he’s a step slow.

2.  The defensive secondary has to perform well, and the Lions should be a good test. Backup quarterback Shaun Hill torched the Patriots in the first half of last year’s Thanksgiving game: 15 for 22, 126 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions. And this time, it will be starter Matthew Stafford under center, and both teams should play starters for most of the first half.

The main question is whether or not cornerbacks Devin McCourty and Leigh Bodden can recapture the skills of their best years with the Patriots (2010 and 2009, respectively). Both saw their first preseason action last week against the Buccaneers, and neither got beaten for anything big. However, the Patriots defensive line dominated that game, so the corners didn’t have to extend themselves much at all.

One other question in the secondary is the status of the safety position.. Beyond Patrick Chung, the competition for the second spot is wide open, with sometime starter James Sanders nursing a hamstring injury and annual disappointment Brandon Meriweather living up (or down) to his reputation. Undrafted free agent Sergio Brown got more reps a practice this week, and it might be telling who gets more time with the first team against the Lions -- since the third preseason game is often considered a warm-up for the regular season.

3. At receiver, Chad Ochocino looked lost on the field last week, and he needs to show progress, if not play perfectly. He is not as central to the Patriots success as some have said, but he has to prove he’s getting the hang of the Patriots complex passing game, or the team might not keep him around. And missing routes and then looking dumbfounded on the sideline again won’t help his cause.

Taylor Price is reportedly healthy again, and if he can duplicate his game against Jacksonville, he might get himself a roster spot in a very competitive receiver race. And that would give him the chance to show his speed and become the deep threat the Patriots really need. (Just don’t expect much of that tonight -- the Lions pass rush will probably dictate a short passing game.)

4. On the defensive line, slight injuries and typical Patriots sleight of hand make it very tough to know who will play from week to week. Expect either Albert Haynesworth and/or Shaun Ellis to make an appearance tonight, and watch specifically if they can move the line back toward the quarterback (assuming they get in the game). Also monitor the progress of Andre Carter -- do the Lions game plan specifically to contain him, or will he get single coverage again.

Perhaps the biggest problem on defensive line is the numbers game, especially for veteran Mike Wright and recent signee Ellis. Expect Albert Haynesworth to make the team, based solely on potential even if he skips the entire preseason. But if Ellis or Wright can’t get on the field, it will be tough to keep them and let Carter or Eric Moore go based on performance so far. And also expect the team to keep improving Myron Pryor and second-year pro Jermaine Cunningham.

Beyond any injuries, those are a few things I’ll be watching tonight. Enjoy the game.


Keep the faith,


- Scott


PS.  0-0!

Patriots 45, Lions 24

Looks like those second half adjustments are much improved.  The Patriots thrashed the Lions 45-24 yesterday, bludgeoning them 35-7 in the final 30 minutes and improving to 9-2 on the season, still tied with the Jets for first in the AFC East.  (Trivia question #1: name the other game this year when the Patriots outscored their opponent 35-7 in the second half... answer below.)  And that sets up the latest "NFL game of the year" on December 6, when the Jets come to town to play the Pats for conference and division supremacy.

The Patriots came out flat in the first half.  Dropped passes, too much pressure by the Lions D-line, poor kickoff coverage, and too many yards and points given up to a team that shouldn't have been on the field with them.  The Pats whimpered into the half down 17-10, and given the Lions domination of the line of scrimmage it could have been a lot worse.

When they went four-and-out on the first series of the second half, it looked like a dangerous opponent might just sneak out a win.  But they were saved by Devin McCourty's fourth interception of the year; he cut in front of all-world receiver Calvin Johnson and saved the game for the Patriots.  They took full advantage of the short field, this time going four-and-touchdown instead (short throw to Wes Welker) to tie the game.  After the teams traded touchdowns, the Lions reverted to form: they missed a field goal, committed stupid penalties to stop their own drives and extend Patriots drives, and turned the ball over again, specifically another McCourty INT.

McCourty impresses every week, and might be making a legitimate push for NFL defensive rookie of the year.  He returned the two INTs yesterday for 73 yards, and he might well have played every defensive snap this season for the Patriots.  He doesn't get beaten deep, makes sure tackles in the pass and run games, and he plays a lot bigger than his size (5' 10", 193).  His long reach and willingness to battle from the island position week after week make him a force to be considered by the other team.  Not Pro-Bowl level by any stretch of the imagination, but it makes one wonder what might have been if Leigh Bodden (last year's best corner) didn't get injured in the pre-season.

Lions QB Shaun Hill finished with 285 yards, but he averaged a paltry 5.8 yards per attempt (versus 12.1 for the Patriots), and that was largely a function of the Patriots trying not to get beaten deep.  The safety combo of James Sanders and Pat Chung is clearly their best, both players possessing great instincts and showing a keen understanding of the defense.  And even with Brandon Meriweather being more of a trick-or-treat player, the secondary finished yesterday's game with 24 tackles, 6 passes knocked down, and of course the 2 INTs.  They also had a few hard hits, to separate receivers from the ball, especially late in the game; though Chung needs to know he can't lower his head to hit the QB -- that was an easy penalty call.

You know your D-line is banged up when Kyle Love gets significant playing time, which he did.  The rushing yards against them looked worse than they really were (127 yards and 4.8 yards per carry) -- there were several long runs that skewed the stats.  Overall the D-line and linebackers did a decent job stopping the run, especially when you consider they spent most of the game in nickel to stop the pass.  Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo stuffed most of the inside runs, and Brandon Spikes and the secondary got some plays that went outside.  But they still need better containment on wide runs; Jermaine Cunningham is better than Tully Banta-Cain at this, but there isn't anyone who does it nearly as well as Mike Vrabel did for years.

And even though the Patriots D-line provided very little quarterback pressure, the biggest defensive problem continues to be the medium-middle passing zones.  Mayo can't cover any decent back or tight end one-one-one, and Brandon Spikes is more of a run stopper.  Gary Guyton can cover receivers, but he guesses wrong too often and those plays extend drives.  And Rob Ninkovich and Pierre Woods won't be the answer.  That might mean cheating up a safety to cover the middle-medium passes, but that would open them up to longer passes against teams with enough receiver talent -- which would be the bulk of their remaining schedule and just about any team they'd face if they get into the playoffs.

There isn't an easy answer to this puzzle; they will have to go with the players they have and hope they can out-scheme or out-guess their opponents.  Thankfully, their offense can score with the best of them, so they can lean on that sometimes.

And speaking of offense, two men on the Patriots had absolutely stellar days yesterday: quarterback Tom Brady and offensive coordinator (in all but title) Bill O'Brien.  Brady finished with a "perfect" quarterback rating of 158.3, and led the team on five consecutive touchdown drives to salt the game away.  And for those worried about the lack of quick-strike offense without Randy Moss, the three long drives in that list were: 3 plays for 87 yards in 1:38; 5 plays for 64 yards in 2:15; and 7 plays for 84 yards in 4:25.  Brady missed a few passes in the first half; but his pinpoint accuracy and spread-the-field mentality paid huge dividends after the break.  He completed passes to seven different receivers, and it would have been eight if Brandon Tate could hold onto the ball.

And Bill O'Brien (or whomever is calling the plays these days) called a superb game.  A great mix of run-pass, great plays called to overcome long yardage situations, and once the Lions were on the ropes he diced them up with mis-directions, power runs, and play-action calls for big chunks of yardage.  His maturation as an offensive coordinator is evident in how they handled the transitions when Kevin Faulk was injured, when Randy Moss was traded, and when Logan Mankins returned to a then-cohesive O-line.  And of course, an OC makes his name in how he calls a game, and yesterday was Bill O'Brien's best since the 2009 Tennessee blowout (Pats won 59-0).

Deion Branch (3 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns), Wes Welker (8-90, 2 touchdowns), and Rob Gronkowski (5-65) beguiled the Lions with speed, quickness, and power.  Branch didn't catch a ball until the second half, but he twisted and turned defenders on consecutive catches for 79- and 22-yard scores.  Welker out-quicked the defense for drive-sustaining grabs all game long, and showed determination in muscling his way into the end zone on both touchdowns.  Gronkowski beat the Lions run-blocking, in the short passing game, and up the seam for long gains.  He has the power blow over defenders and the height and wingspan to outjump them.

The running attack was not dominant, except when it needed to be.  The strength of the Lions defense is along the line, so the Pats didn't waste much time trying to run it down their throats.  But the run-pass mix created enough of a threat to hold the linebackers and open up pass routes, and when the Lions dropped back to pass, BenJarvus Green-Ellis hammered them for important yards and scores.  He ended up with 12 carries for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns, and both scores were hard inside runs where he battered defenders and drove them into the end zone.  Danny Woodhead didn't have as good a running day as he did the past few weeks, but this was a day to pass anyway, so don't read too much into it.

And along the O-line it was a mixed bag.  The outside rush got to Brady too often in the first half, and the inside did the same until they started double-teaming the tackles.  The Pats couldn't handle the Lions inside size or outside quickness, and blitzes confused them more than they should at this point in the season.  But give them credit for adjusting to shorter passes and play-action to slow down the rush; it worked to perfection in the second half.

On special teams, they gave up way too many good kickoff returns and didn't get any of their own.  Brandon Tate needs to realize that when they kick him into a corner he should take it straight ahead and get what he can.  He tried to cross the field too often, wanting to make a big play, and was regularly tackled short of the 20 yard line.  And with Gostkowski gone, they are giving up longer returns -- might be time to do shorter kickoffs so the coverage can get to the ball carrier quicker.

So where does that leave us?  9-2 and tied with the Jets atop the AFC... seems like a good place to be.  And the Gillette Showdown is 10 days away, should be a real barn-burner.  Also, the extra days off couldn't have come at a better time, with Brady missing practice this week, he can use the additional time to rest his injured ankle.  He'll need maximum mobility against the blitz-happy Jets, that's for sure.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: A 9-2 record guarantees that the Patriots will go yet another season without ever dipping below .500.  The last time they were under .500 was when they lost the opener in 2003 (which put them at 0-1).  So by the end of this year, it'll be 127 straight games without a losing record, obliterating the old record of 96 (trivia question #2: name the team that held that record).  Enjoy the run while it lasts, folks... excellence like this does not come along more than once in a lifetime.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sure Brady was amazing and all, but why do I think McCourty saved their bacon with his pick early in the second half?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  9-2!

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#1: The Patriots outscored the Dolphins 35-7 in the second half of their game in Miami.

#2: The Buffalo Bills were never below .500 from 1988 - 1994.