Pats Fall To Jags, 31-20

In a game that was pretty much just awful, the Patriots dropped their first contest to the Jaguars, 31-20. The loss puts them at 1-1, tied for second place in the AFC East, behind the Dolphins. Next up is a Sunday night tilt in Detroit next week, facing old friend Matt Patricia's pathetic Lions team.

Going off last week's "September is the preseason" theme, if it was, the Patriots would cut about half the team based on yesterday. 33% third-down conversions (4-of-12) doesn't even tell the story; they had play after play there to be made on third-down and failed time and again. The pass rush fell asleep after Trey Flowers went out with a concussion. And two special teams gaffes literally cost them a chance to get back into the game late.

Offense

Pleasant Surprise: It was probably second tight end Jacob Hollister, who caught 3 passes for 35 yards, nearly matching his 4 catches for 42 yards from all of 2017. He also had some decent blocks, but honestly, if I'm scraping this far into the barrel, it obviously wasn't a great offensive day for the Pats.

Steady Eddie: James White, who caught 7 passes for 73 yards. He had one really nice run after catch, but unfortunately came up short on a third-and-five near the end of the game, forcing a Patriots punt.

Disappointment: QB Tom Brady was off-target on several throws, overthrew a 40-yard bomb on a third-and-five when the game was still winnable, and chose to throw to White on that fateful third down when wideout Phillip Dorsett was wide open for the first down. Just a really bad day for Brady.

Overall: They averaged 3.4 yards a rush, and 6.3 yards per pass attempt, both really mediocre numbers. They undertargeted Rob Gronkowski, overtargeted Coradarrelle Patterson, and just blew it time after time on third downs. A very poor performance indeed.

Defense

Pleasant Surprise: Could it be that Kyle Van Noy is rounding into shape after all this time? It wasn't just that he led the team with six tackles or that he got his first INT since 2016. He also had a pass defended, and made some decent plays against the run. (Probably a one-game thing, but we can always hope...)

Steady Eddie: Sure Stephon Gilmore gave up a touchdown, but he also made five solo tackles, forced a fumble, and knocked away two other passes. In year two, he is what wanted him to be in year one - an excellent corner who covers one-on-one without help.

Disappointment: So many to choose from, but defensive end Adrian Clayborn gets the nod from me. He continually overshot the QB pocket, at least twice letting Blake Bortles run for easy first downs through a spot Clayborn vacated. Sure he got two hits on Bortles, but what good did that do when he gave up first downs instead of getting the team off the field.

Overall: Also bad yesterday were Eric Rowe, Devin McCourty, Jason McCourty, and new linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley. Bentley's performance can be explained as growing pains; what excuse do the rest of these guys have?

Special Teams

Pleasant Surprise: None.

Steady Eddie: Punter Ryan Allen averaged 45.3 net yards per kick, had one downed inside the 20, and only had one returned (once the team was gassed late in the game).

Disappointment: Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a field goal early and then blew it with a kickoff that landed one yard inside the end zone when he was told to have it land just short of the end zone.

Overall: The Pats also messed up when Jacksonville jumped offside on a fourth-and-inches late, and the entire punt team forgot to move to draw the penalty. Coach Belichick was livid on the sidelines after, and rightfully so.

So where does this leave us? 1-1 is right where I thought they'd be at this point. Didn't expect this bad of a beating, but the opening schedule was probably the toughest part of their 2018 slate. If Flowers doesn't come back next week... hell, it won't make a difference against the Lions. Will it?

Biggest on-going issue: This week it was the complete lack of pressure once Flowers went down. The reason Bortles looked great is he was under no pressure. And the Patriots don't have the defensive backfield to hold up without a pass rush. Is Chandler Jones available in a trade?

Non-Brady MVP: The clock operator in Jacksonville, who kept things moving so the game would end quickly

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In just two weeks, receiver Phillip Dorsett has as many receptions (12) in 2018 as he had all of 2017, despite playing in almost every game last year. He also has more touchdowns (1) in 2018 than he had in 2017 (0).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Pats win in January in Foxboro, Jags win in September in Florida. What does that say about how a playoff rematch would go?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-1!

Patriots Super Bowl 52 Preview

One week to go until the big game, and I have a confession to make: I haven't seen the Eagles play this year. Life circumstances and time constraints make this the first time I'll publish a preview of the Super Bowl without at least seeing the opponent in the NFC Championship Game. So please take what you are about to read with a grain -- make that two grains -- of salt.

The Bison In The Room

Philadelphia's starting quarterback in the Super Bowl won't be the guy who started the season, former North Dakota State University star Carson Wentz ("Go Bisons!"). Wentz was on his way to a possible MVP when he was injured against the LA Rams and placed on season-ending injured reserve. So it'll be Nick Foles at the helm on Sunday.

It's been four seasons since Foles' breakout campaign in 2013 (27 touchdowns, 2 interceptions). And the results haven't been great since then: 58.8% completions, 6.43 yards per attempt, 28 TDs, 22 INTs, a 78.1 QB rating, and a 13-10 record (including 2-1 this year). He is a streaky player, who thrives when things are going well and tightens up when they go poorly.

He can throw short but loves to throw long. Against the Patriots, he would be well-advised to keep the ball in the short zones, attacking the Patriots linebackers in pass coverage. The Eagles have two excellent tight ends and at least one receiver who are very good in the short zones. They don't throw much to their running backs; but they have the players to exploit the Pats weakness at linebacker.

The Pats secondary is much more talented and their safeties could feast on the long ball if Foles can't stick with short routes. So he must remain disciplined to give the Eagles a shot.

Can The Eagles Stop The G.O.A.T.?

Philadelphia had the ninth-best passing defense in the league, as measured by giving up just a 79.5 QB rating to all quarterbacks they faced this year. But they didn't face anyone having a year close to what Tom Brady had in 2017.

To answer the question of whether Philly can slow down Brady, consider the AFC Championship Game. Jacksonville led the league by allowing just a 68.5 QB rating by their combined opponents this year. And Brady torched them for a 108.4 rating, a higher rating than Jacksonville had given up in any regular-season game this year.

So it's nice that the Eagles have a good pass defense. But if Rob Gronkowski returns from concussion protocol, the Patriots have plenty of weapons to put the hurt on the Philly defense. Just ask Jacksonville.

Offensive Efficiency Dead Heat

If you think the Patriots are vastly superior to the Eagles on the offensive side, you might want to think again. Here are the two teams game statistics compared from the regular season.

• Points Scored: Patriots 458, Eagles 457
• Plays From Scrimmage: Eagles 1,073, Patriots 1,070
• Third-down Conversions: Eagles 42%, Patriots 41%
• Fourth-down Conversions: Eagles 65%, Patriots 62%

It is true that many of these stats were put up by Wentz, not Foles. But still pretty amazing to see such a close race between the two teams.

Coaching Mismatch A Lot More Than Experience

It's pretty easy to look at the head coaches and see a huge disparity. Philadelphia's Doug Pederson has coached two playoff games, and in fairness, he won them both (the last two weeks). Bill Belichick has coached 38 playoff games and won 28 of them.

Everyone knows Belichick will leave no stone unturned in his preparation and that he will not panic under any circumstances in the game. No one really knows what Pederson will do before or during the game on Sunday.

But the additional mismatch is the coordinators. Pats DC Matt Patricia and OC Josh McDaniels are reportedly gone after the season, taking head coaching jobs with the Lions and Colts, respectively. So neither of them has any reason to leave any bullets unfired in this game. If they have an exotic blitz or a special offensive play, they might as well use it in this game -- because next year they will be gone.

Interestingly, this is the exact situation as the last time the Pats and Eagles played in the Super Bowl. Back then it was Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis leaving after the big game. And both came up with masterful gameplans and stellar adjustments to changing game situations. (Trivia question: name the coaches who replaced Weis and Crennel at their respective positions for the 2005 season. Answer below.)

Quick Hits:

A) Gronkowski participated in practice today and appears on schedule to return for the Super Bowl.

B) The Patriots will likely test the Philly kickoff return game. The Pats kicked it inside the five yard-line against most teams, whereas the Eagles had the fewest kickoff returns in the league this year (18).

C) The thinking seems to be that Philly needs to get pressure with their front four; but that won't be easy. The Eagles had a middling pass rush this year, getting 38 sacks on the season, tied for 15th in the NFL.

D) The Eagles did have a stout run defense though, giving up an average of 3.8 yards per carry (tied for 6th in the league). Meanwhile the Pats gave up 4.7ypc, second-worst in the league.

Statistical Oddity: Under Belichick, the Patriots have played 15 teams in the playoffs that they had not faced in that regular season. They are 15-0 in those games. 15-0! (Credit to fivethirtyeight.com, sorry for the repeat for those on Twitter and Facebook.)

Water-cooler Wisdom: "The team might think of this as a business trip, but I'm nervous as hell!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 15-3 & 2-0!

PPS. Trivia answer:

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
In 2005, Eric Mangini replaced Crennel as defensive coordinator. But no offensive coordinator was named -- I know, trick question :P

Patriots Advance To Super Bowl With 24-20 Win Over Jaguars

The Pats capped their fourth-quarter comeback with a 24-20 win over Jacksonville Sunday. The victory put them in the Super Bowl for an NFL record tenth time, and another NFL record eighth time for head coach Bill Belichick and quaterback Tom Brady. More on the Eagles soon, but first, Sunday's win...

You've no doubt heard a lot of analysis already (sorry this is late), but there are a few tidbits that haven't been mentioned much. (1) For every Danny Amendola great catch, there were equally great throws. (2) The Patriots made outstanding halftime adjustments. (3) How/Why Jacksonville went conservative and then blew it under pressure at the end.

Without Amendola the Patriots do not win this game. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was ruled out of the game with a concussion in the first half, and usually dependable James White had two drops, one of which he allowed to be knocked away with poor technique. Chris Hogan didn't appear to be himself, and Brandin Cooks was fine on deep routes but sub-average on short ones. Add to all that the lack of a running game, and it was mostly Amendola keeping the chains moving in the second half.

The Pats receiver had just two catches (for 28 yards) in the three quarters, including one on the critically important touchdown before the half. But in the last 15 minutes, he had the 21-yard grab on third-and-18 grab for a first down. A diving grab for another first down inches from the ground. And then the ridiculous back of the endzone Spiderman catch where his barely got the second foot down as he floated out of bounds.

Two drives later, Amendola returned a punt 20 yards to the Jacksonville 30, and it appeared all but preordained that the Patriots were going to score and win. Two more completions to Amendola, and it was Patriots 24-20, and the ballgame. Without his contribution, the Pats would not be in the Super Bowl.

And none of this is meant to minimize how well Tom Brady played, especially with his 12 stitches in his right hand. A few of his early throws weren't up to his usual standards, particularly the touch throws to the flat. But once he got rolling in the second half, he was as accurate as he's been all year.

Four of the throws on their first fourth-quarter touchdown were outstanding. His dart to Amendola on third-and-18, down low where only his receiver could get it, but high enough to get over the defensive line. He followed that up with a quick-snap flea flicker (hand off to James White, who pitched it back to Brady). And he put that pass right on the money where Phillip Dorsett could leap up to make the play over the defender.

After that, his pass over the middle near the end zone, where he waited an extra half-beat and then threw about one inch past the defender where Amendola could only get it -- an absolutely unfair throw! And even the touchdown to Amendola, where he waited for the short routes to clear, stepped up to avoid pressure, and put it where there was no risk of a turnover but his receiver could make a play; what a brilliant throw.

Then there were the halftime adjustments. Reportedly the Patriots had to throw out 80% of their offensive game plan when Gronkowski was injured. So they mostly scrapped the running game and worked enough of the sideline to open up some throws over the middle later in the second half. It helped that Jacksonville played more zone, but that doesn't explain the increased production on its own.

The first half defense was just plain bad. They lost outside contain on multiple running plays, allowed the quarterback to complete 87% of his passes and convert 67% of the third downs, and barely grazed him beyond the one sack they had.

In the second half, it was different. They brought pressure, and pressure from odd places and strange angles. They got burned early on a delayed blitz up the middle, so they came with outside corner- and safety-blitzes that flustered the young QB. These also came in handy when the Jags tried to run outside, bring an extra defender to hold the edge or blow up the play.

In the last 30 minutes, Jacksonville averaged only 2.7 yards per carry and went 10 of 21 passing. The Patriots had figured them out, and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia once again shut down a team in the second half. He has a habit of doing that -- the Pats gave up an average of 8.3 points in the second half of games this year. And that tendency will be missed when he's gone (reportedly the new head coach in Detroit after the Super Bowl).

Which leads us directly to how Jacksonville lost the game. First, after a dominant first half, they only led by four points. They had a delay of game coming out of a Patriots timeout (what?!), which negated a first-down gain and forced them to punt with about 2:00 left. And of course, the Patriots scored a touchdown easily against the Jags prevent defense.

Then, to compound the mistake, they knelt on the ball with 0:55 left and two timeouts! The Patriots would never have done that, and I'm sure Belichick was grateful that Jacksonville didn't go for the knockout touchdown or at least a field goal.

In the second half, the Jaguars were way too conservative on offense, with too many first-down runs. They ran on first down five times on seven second-half possessions, for a grand total of four yards. They needed to stick with short throws over the middle to attack the vulnerable Patriots linebackers. But they apparently thought the game was in hand, especially given that their defense was one of the league's best this year.

In retrospect, that was an obvious mistake.

Other stand-out performances:

• Kyle Van Noy, who had 9 tackles, 1 sack (for 9 yards), a pass defended, and a forced fumble. Their only good linebacker had a good game.
• Dion Lewis: 32 yards receiving and 34 yards rushing, including 18 big yards to ice the game.
• Brandin Cooks had 100 yards receiving and 68 yards on two penalties against the Jaguars defense.
• Phillip Dorsett, who not only had a 31-yard reception but did a great job chipping the Jacksonville ends to slow their pass rush.
• Stephon Gilmore, with five tackles and two huge passes defended (including a late one to give the ball back to the Patriots).
• Trey Flowers, except for the time he lost outside contain on a 10+ yard Jacksonville run.
• James Harrison, but only when they had him rushing the passer and not against the run.

So where does that leave us? In the Super Bowl, baby! Gronkowski is in the concussion protocol and Brady's hand is still healing. Those are the only real unknowns; so enjoy the two weeks!

Biggest on-going concern: Back to the linebackers in pass coverage.

The Eagles won't attack them with running backs, but they have two good tight ends and at least one wideout (Alshon Jeffery) who can exploit the Pats linebacking deficiencies with short crossing routes.

Non-Brady MVP: Amendola, a monster game.

Statistical Oddity: The difference between Jacksonville's first and second halves, courtesy Matt Patricia's defensive adjustments. (Note: numbers projected from each half to a full game, for easy comparison.)

First half projections

• Rushing: 34 for 120 yards (3.5 yards per carry)
• Passing: 26 of 30 (87%) for 310 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 sacks (12 yards), 131.9 rating
• Game Stats: 28 first downs, 8 of 12 on third down (67%), 4-4 in the red zone, 418 net yards

Second half projections

• Rushing: 30 for 82 yards (2.7ypc)
• Passing: 20 of 42 (47.6%) for 276 yards, 0 touchdowns, 6 sacks (40 yards), 69.1 rating
• Game Stats: 16 first downs, 4 of 18 on third down (22%), 0-0 in the red zone, 330 net yards
• 330 net yards

Bonus Statistical Oddity (courtesy of ESPN): Teams trailing by 10+ points in the 4th quarter of a playoff game in the last 10 seasons:

• Patriots: 3-4
• Rest of NFL: 3-70

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Gilmore signing was worth it just for that last play!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 15-3 & 2-0!

Pats Ice The Titans, 35-14

The Patriots did what they were supposed to do, crushing the Tennessee Titans 35-14 to advance to the AFC Championship Game next Sunday (3:05pm EST). This is more than we can say for the "Second Round Steelers," who failed to hold up their end of the bargain. So it'll be the Jacksonville Jaguars at Gillette with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

As for Saturday night's game, the Titans were completely overmatched. And it started with the opening coin-flip. The Patriots won the toss, but instead doing the usual thing and deferring to the second half, they took the ball. That meant the Titans chose the goal to defend, and they put the Patriots into the wind in the first quarter.

What this did was allow the Patriots to control the game by matching their style to the wind direction. In the first quarter, they only took about 6:00 off the clock, but they pinned the Titans back inside their own ten yard line for both of their "with the wind" possessions. So even though Tennessee scored first, they used the entire quarter to get one touchdown.

When the Pats got the wind in the second quarter, they went touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, while Tenn. went punt, punt, failed fourth-down conversion. This basically ended the game. However, even if it hadn't, the Titans got the ball first in the second half, but the Pats forced them to go into the wind, throwing the ball to catch up.

This was a master-course in how to manage game situations by Belichick. When the team had the wind, they went up-tempo and threw a lot. Against the wind, they kept the ball on the ground or threw short passes, and they used the entire play clock. Amazing strategy against a weak-armed quarterback. By the time the Titans got the wind in the fourth quarter, they were down 35-7. Game. Set. Match.

Speaking of quarterbacks, the Patriots guy played pretty well. Tom Brady completed 66% of his passes, including some pinpoint strikes in the red zone and a ridiculous cross-body, cross-field throw to Danny Amendola that fell right into his breadbasket. Brady controlled the line of scrimmage, audibiling to the perfect play time and again, and never once putting the ball in harm's way.

Amendola led the receivers in catches (11) and yards (112). He also did a fantastic job receiving punts on a very windy night, never bobbling a single one. The passing attack also featured running backs Dion Lewis and James White, with 9 catches for 79 yards, and 4 for 29 yards respectively. You had to know that was coming, as Tennessee was the worst team in the league versus pass-catching running backs.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski had 6 grabs for 81 yards, with a couple where he got position and Brady through it where the DB couldn't get to it. Gronk also did a nice job blocking for running plays, and helped protect the passer with some well-timed chips of outside rushers.

The biggest surprise of the game was the lack of pressure on Brady. The offensive line was outstanding, although aided and abetted by a defensive scheme that mostly sent three rushers. Brady was hit four times and sacked not once. And he had upwards of six or seven seconds on a few plays. Pair that with 4.3ypc by the running backs, and it was one of the best games this year for the O-line.

The running backs did well in the passing game, and showed explosion when needed in the running game. White scored two touchdowns (one running, one receiving), and Brandon Bolden had what must have been the easiest touchdown of his career to ice the game. (He ran untouched into the end zone, right up the middle of the defense.)

The second-biggest surprise of the game was the pressure applied by the Patriots defensive line. Here are the sack totals from that group:
Trey Flowers: 1 for 7 yards
Deatrich Wise: 2 for 12 yards
Geneo Grissom: 2 for 12 yards
Adam Butler: 1 for 5 yards
Ricky Jean Francois: 1 for 8 yards

Grissom was the emotional spark, firing up the team after some near-miss sacks (before he got two). And Butler should get credit for two of the other sacks, as he flushed Marcus Mariotta out of the pocket so others could get the on the stat sheet. It was a shockingly dominant performance; the unit even added 9 of the 10 QB hits!

It was nice to get linebacker Kyle Van Noy back. They didn't need him much to cover the running backs (they aren't much of a pass receiving threat), but it will help for him to have reps before facing a tougher Jacksonville squad this Sunday.

In the defensive backfield, the safeties worked to keep things in front of them, but there were some communication breakdowns. Corner Stephon Gilmore had the only two passes defended in the game, and it was unsettling to see some of the Titans wideouts running free. Fortunately they had enough drops to make up for it.

Punter Ryan Allen led the special teams units. Not only did he pin back the Titans early, but he handled at least one bad snap on a field goal/extra point attempt. Stephen Gostkowski continued his stellar use of the short-but-high kickoff to keep teams inside their own 20 yard line.

However, there were at least three bad long-snaps from Joe Cardona. Allen handled all three, two of which were on punts, and it might have owed to the frigid conditions. It was not a problem Saturday, but something to keep an eye on moving forward.

The coaching was a complete mismatch. The Patriots were cool and calm and stayed within their game plan. The Titans looked lost, called timeouts when they should have held onto them, and had 10 penalties for 62 yards.

A sequence at the end of the first half was particularly telling. They gained 9 yards to give themselves a fourth-and-1 (really a half-yard) near midfield. Coach (now former coach) Mike Mularkey decided, correctly, to go for it. But he burned his last timeout before the play... however, if the Titans ran for the first down, he would have needed that timeout to stop the clock again or lose any realistic chance to score.

And then after the timeout, they promptly ran a wide toss to the left... which of course lost five yards and gave the ball back to the Pats. He was clearly overmatched, and Tennessee fired him today as a result. (And they have their eye on Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, by the way.)

So where does that leave us? Another AFC Championship Game sounds just about right. It's their seventh in a row and twelfth of the Brady/Belichick era. Unfortunately for us, it'll be warm -- Florida teams don't do well in January when the thermometer dips into the teens.

Biggest on-going issue It is no longer the linebackers, simply because the teams that could have exploited their weakness in pass coverage all lost this weekend (Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Atlanta).

It is actually team focus at this point. The Patriots are excellent at ignoring the noise. But with both coordinators likely gone, maybe the heir apparent DC gone (linebackers coach Brian Flores), and with all the crap about Brady, Belichick, Kraft, and the TB12 stuff, I'm actually worried about focus.

I do think the release of a Patriots hit-piece the morning of the Super Bowl in 2008 affected their focus. And they lost that game by three points, so it could have cost them another title and a perfect season.

We all expect them to keep their focus, and they probably will. But on the field, there just isn't much to worry about at this point. All the high-flying offenses are gone, and the Patriots are clearly the best team remaining in the field.

Non-Brady MVP: Amendola, a great game!

Statistical Oddity: The Patriots are going to their seventh straight AFC Championship Game. No other team in the NFL has a current streak of at least seven straight winning seasons. Think about that for a second...

Water-cooler Wisdom: "At least the Titans fired their coach for malpractice... what's the Steelers' excuse?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 14-3 & 1-0!

Patriots Trounce Jaguars, 51-17

Some things are as predictable as a harvest-moon lunar eclipse; like the Patriots dominating the Jacksonville Jaguars. After yesterday's 51-17 drubbing the Patriots have won seven in a row against the Jags and haven't lost a game to them this century. The victory puts the 3-0 Patriots atop the AFC East all alone. Next week is a bye, so smoke 'em if you got 'em!

I won't go into much detail about this game. It was a laugher from before the half, and the easy answer to why the Pats won is they scored on every single drive they had (save for the kneel downs to end the game). Their nine other possessions ended with six touchdowns and three field goals. Tough to win when you can't stop the other team.

Quarterback Tom Brady was incredible again yesterday, continuing a career streak against Jax where he has 17 touchdowns and 2 interceptions -- oh, and he got to 400 TDs on his career! He was barely touched (two sacks, four QB hits), and ended up with 33 for 42 (78.5%), 358 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 118.1 QB rating. His 2015 rating of 119.6 is third among QBs with enough attempts to qualify (Trivia question: name the other two... Answer below.)

On the offensive line, rookies David Andrews and Shaq Mason are getting multiple blocks on running plays, both at the line and down field. Nate Solder had one bad play yesterday and crushed it on about ten others. The unit is coming together much more quickly than last year's group, and when injured center Bryan Stork returns, it could be dominant.

Among the receivers, Gronkowski and Edelman were their usual impressive selves. But two unexpected contributors were Danny Amendola (5 catches, 39 yards, and 1 touchdown), and Keshawn Martin (3 catches, 33 yards, 1 touchdown). Until Brandon LaFell returns, the team needs contributions from receivers other than Gronk and JE11, and for the time being it appears they have found some players to do that.

Running backs LeGarrette Blount (18 rushes, 78 yards, 3 touchdowns) and Dion Lewis (8-37, 1 TD) carried the load. But the interesting development was the number of snaps James White got. He ended up with 2 carries for 8 yards, but also caught 4 passes for 26 yards. It appears they are grooming him to share third-down responsibilities with Lewis.

This plan makes sense. There are some teams where Blount just isn't the right back to attack that specific defense, where they need more of a scatback. And in those games, being able to split time between Lewis and White is better than overworking Lewis.

On defense, there should be a petition for linebacker Jamie Collins as defensive player of the year. It wasn't the numbers this week; just 5 tackles, 1 sack, and a forced fumble ::yawn::. It was that Collins helped stifle the Jags offense, with good coverage on tight ends and forcing runs where they weren't designed to go. He's having a great year, and I hope he is recognized.

The defensive line was instrumental in stuffing the supposedly stout Jags running game, holding them to just 57 yards on 20 carries (2.9 ypc). Alan Branch played an excellent game, and the outside rushers did a great job forcing runners to make cuts before they wanted to.

Don't get too excited about the secondary; Jaguar receivers dropped at least five catchable passes. Corner Malcolm Butler broke up three passes but gave up the completion that became a 59-yard touchdown when safety Duron Harmon whiffed on the tackle. And corner Logan Ryan was so bad he got picked on in both man- and zone-coverage. No easy trick, and he continues to struggle out there.

On special teams, punter Ryan Allen had the easiest job of the day: not punting. He didn't punt once, the first time in his career that happened. And kicker Stephen Gostkowski remained perfect on the year. He also successfully booted his 425th consecutive extra point, an NFL record that might never be broken now that the PAT is a 33-yarder.

So where does that leave us? 3-0 and in first place is a good start to the season. The bye is this week, and I'll have an update with details on how things look so far.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: It isn't often a team has 20 more first downs than their opponent, but the Patriots had 35 yesterday to Jacksonville's 15.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Too bad Jacksonville won't make the playoffs. They'd make an easy first-round patsy."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 3-0!

PPS. Trivia answer: Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (128.4) and Cincinnati's Andy Dalton (121.0) lead Tom  Brady in QB rating.

49ers Outlast Patriots, 41-34

San Francisco came to town and played the part of inhospitable guests, building a 28-point lead and hanging on for a 41-34 victory over the Patriots.  The loss dropped the Pats a game behind the Broncos for the second seed in the AFC, and all but puts the #1 seed out of reach.  Next week it's a tilt against the Jaguars in Jacksonville (site of the Patriots' most recent Super Bowl victory), and they need a win to stay ahead of the Baltimore Ravens and avoid slipping to the #4 seed.

The game was ugly early, great for about 18 minutes, and then depressing late.  Speaking of late, it's after 3:00, so I'll keep this update brief.  Not much to say beyond "Patriots stunk up the joint" anyway.

First, credit where it is due -- San Fran head coach Jim Harbaugh put together a great game plan.  He attacked the Patriots defense with ingenious schemes, attacked their offense with brute force and turnovers, and used special teams to extend drives and (more importantly) to keep the Pats backed up all game long.

The first 49ers score came when two receivers lined up next to each other and ran fly patterns into the end zone.  Both got behind the defensive backs, and the safety was late getting over, so it was an easy touchdown to Randy Moss -- though it could have gone to the tight end just as easily.  On another touchdown, they ran two tight ends to the same half of the end zone, but their scheme left the Patriots' Alfonzo Dennard alone to defend both players -- another easy touchdown.

They also ran a fake punt, which is something they probably saw in film study.  And with the combination of turnovers and great punting, the average 49ers drive started on their 46 yard line, whereas the average Patriots drive started on their own 20 yard line.  Patriots special teams penalties contributed to that disparity, too, but it was mostly great punting and kickoff coverage by San Francisco.

The Niners defense was good enough to hold the Pats for a half.  But giving more credit where it is due, the Patriots made outstanding halftime adjustments, and scored four touchdowns in less than 20:00 of game time.  Unfortunately, they'd dug themselves too deep a hole.  Down by 28 points, they had to be perfect just to catch up, which they did -- but then, they slipped up a few times down the stretch and San Francisco took advantage and put the game away.

In the Patriots first 9 possessions, they had: 3 three-and-outs, 1 four-and-out, 2 lost fumbles, 2 interceptions, and 1 field goal.  Their second fumble and second interception came on their first two possessions of the third quarter, and those turnovers left them down 31-3, and all looked hopeless.  But once the Pats stopped stopping themselves, they roared back to tie the game.

Not often you lose the turnover battle 4-2 and even have a chance to win.  But the Pats defense stopped the 49ers on five second-half possessions, while the offense racked up four straight touchdowns.  But alas, the Niners used a great kickoff return to set up a one-play touchdown and vault back into the lead.  And the Patriots offense looked like it would score to tie it again, but two sacks on consecutive plays ended that drive, and effectively any chance to win the game.

It wasn't all bad, so here are some of the good things that happened:

1.  Great halftime adjustments by the offensive line coach and the offensive coordinator.  If not for turnovers, they could well have pulled out the game, the turnaround was that stunning.

2.  Tom Brady's touchdown-saving tackle after an interception -- and the defense turning the ball back over to the offense two plays later.

3.  Brandon Lloyd ended up with 10 catches for 190 yards, by far his best game with the Patriots.  This is a very encouraging sign, as the team chugs toward the playoffs.  Oh, and San Francisco had no answer for Aaron Hernandez (10 for 92), and they couldn't cover Wes Welker in the second half (5 for 56).

4.  Danny Woodhead's shifty running style worked better against the large 49ers defense; he had 61 yards on the ground, 5 catches for 23 yards, and 2 rushing TDs.  Once a millstone on the first- and second-down offense, he's a nice change of pace, especially against lumbering defensive linemen. 
 And to be balanced, here are some of the lowlights for the Patriots:

1.  Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen -- tsk tsk tsk, take better care of the ball.  If not, Brandon Bolden will get your carries in the postseason.

2.  The interior of the Patriots defense was repeatedly gashed for big yards right up the middle.  And when they had shots at SF quarterback Colin Kaepernick, they didn't take them, letting up or letting him get away instead.

3.  Secondary miscommunications and/or poor design -- too many 49ers receivers running wide open, especially in the end zone.

4.  8 penalties for 73 yards, the worst of which was an illegal shift that negated a touchdown.  There were also several penalties that canceled out good punt returns and gave the offense a long field to drive.

5.  The referees -- made the game too long, blew several pass interference calls on both sides, somehow missed a muffed punt, and spent too much time talking with coaches.

So where does this leave us?  10-4 and needing help to secure a playoff bye.  But don't count on it.  The Patriots could run the table, but Denver has to lose to Cleveland or Kansas City, neither of which seems likely to give the Broncos much of a game.  Next week it's Jacksonville, who will pay the price for the Patriots missteps this week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  Brandon Lloyd had almost as many yards yesterday (190) as he had in the previous five games combined (214).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:  "Can't win 'em all -- especially when they fumble six times and you only get one of them."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-4!

Mismatch: Patriots QBs vs. Jaguars Defense

Memo to fans of the New England Patriots: please take a deep breath, a step back, and two chill pills about Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet. Last Thursday, the young Patriots players didn't do anything special against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They simply did what Patriots quarterbacks always do to Jack Del Rio's defense -- they destroyed it.


True, Tom Brady is the only other Patriots quarterback to face Jacksonville during Del Rio's tenure, and Brady is acknowledged as a pretty good signal-caller. But no matter what other personnel are on the field -- for either team -- the Patriots passing game is a puzzle the Jaguars head coach can't solve.

Even when you consider that these stats were put up by a future Hall of Fame quarterback, the numbers since Del Rio arrived are discouraging to say the least.

To put a two finer points on those numbers, Brady has never been below his career passer rating (95.2) against Jacksonville, and the Jaguars literally haven't intercepted a single Patriots pass this century. They have also allowed two of Brady's greatest statistical games ever -- back-to-back games with a combined 91% completions, 529 yards through the air, and 7 touchdowns with zero INTs.

Note that given the numbers Brady achieves against Jacksonville, the 68% completions and 109.9 passer rating of Hoyer/Mallet last Thursday seem pedestrian. Which is why Patriots fans should hold off those hotel reservations for Canton in 2031.

For all the success the Patriots had against the Jaguars, the real question is: Why? What is it about Jacksonville's defense that makes backups and rookies look like Pro Bowl quarterbacks? The answer might be simpler than you think: a complete lack of pressure.

In the games listed here, the Jaguars averaged 1 sack for 6 yards and 1 QB hit per game. And those sack numbers are trending down over time -- they had 6 sacks for 28 yards in the first two games, but just 2 sacks for 10 yards in the last three.


In every game Brady had ample time to survey the field and shred Jacksonville's soft zone -- same as Hoyer and Mallet last Thursday. And none of this would be a problem if it happened once and the Jaguars made some adjustments. But they keep trying the same thing, only to fail the same way game after game.


Of course, Jacksonville fans could just chalk it all up to Tom Brady being who he is -- at least they could until that a backup and a rookie thrashed that same defense in the preseason. Hoyer and Mallet might indeed be good NFL quarterbacks someday. One of them might even end up succeeding Brady when he retires. But their performance against Jacksonville last Thursday told you one thing and one thing only: that some things never change, regular season, post-season, and now pre-season.


Keep the faith,


- Scott


PS.  0-0!

Ridley, Young QBs Shine In Patriots Win

Just some quick analysis of the best and worst Patriots players in the team's 47-12 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night. As you might expect, there was a lot more good than bad in the blowout win.



The Good


Running back Stevan Ridley impressed with 111 total yards (64 rushing, 47 receiving) and 3 touchdowns. He showed good balance and determination on two touchdown runs, and speed and good hands on his touchdown reception. However, the most important thing he did was blitz pickup. New running backs on pass-first teams often can't get playing time because they can't read the blitz. But Ridley picked up blitzers flawlessly twice in the game, which shows an aptitude beyond his two+ weeks with the team.


Quarterback Brian Hoyer started and played against the Jaguars first string defense. And even though the Patriots sat most of their offensive starters, Hoyer completed 15 of 21 passes for 171 yards and a 111.4 QB rating. He showed poise and a good pocket presence (zero sacks), and after the first two drives stalled, he led the Patriots on four consecutive scoring drives to finish the half.


Rookie quarterback Ryan Mallett might have been even more impressive than Hoyer. Mallett showcased a rocket arm and though some of his throws were high, he made good reads and hit several receivers in stride for long gains. His QB rating wasn't quite was Hoyer's was, but Mallet led the Patriots to four straight touchdown drives, before the kneel down to end the game.

 Wide receiver Taylor Price was the surprise of the game, with 8 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown. He has the speed to beat teams deep, but did most of his damage on quick slants and outs, one of which he turned up field for a 50 yard gain. He made tough catches over the middle and returned two punts. Price's 2010 rookie year didn't give much hint that he'd be the deep threat the Patriots needed; but this game made him the immediate front-runner for that role.


Offensive lineman Landon Cohen did a great job pulling around end on running plays. He got multiple blocks on three different plays. He did a credible job in pass protection, picking up stunts and clogging the middle when needed.

Linebacker Dane Fletcher was all over the place in the first half. He notched two tackles for a loss, one when he shot a gap, ran over a blocking back, and took down the runner before he got started. If he continues that level of play, he could work into the starting lineup next to Jerod Mayo.


Kicker Stephen Gostkowski only did field goals and extra points. Surprisingly, he was even more accurate than he'd been in the past, grooving 46- and 43-yard field goals right down the middle, with plenty of distance to spare. His leg strength will continue to be an unkkonwn until the Patriots have him kickoff again, but this was a very encouraging start to his comeback from injury.



The Bad


Tight end Aaron Hernandez fumbled twice (one lost) in six catches. To put that in perspective, the 2010 Patriots had 9 turnovers all season long. Suffice it to say it was not the best game of his career, and he got the death-stare from head coach Bill Belichick.


Linebacker Jermaine Cunningham didn't make the kind of progress many fans hoped he would during the off-season. He ran himself out of several running plays, got pushed around by tight ends, and looked semi-lost out there. The Patriots will play more 4-3 this year, which could relieve Cunningham of pass-rushing responsibility. That might be a good thing, because it's clear he is guessing run or pass, and when he guesses wrong the play can go for a long gain.


Cornerback Darius Butler was even more disappointing, because he let up catches to third- and fourth-string players and got pushed out of several plays by guys who won't even make the Jaguars this season. It's been sad to watch his play deteriorate through the years, from part-time starter to a guy apparently fighting to stay on the team. Butler simply never got better at the position, and it appears he will never be the starter the Patriots hoped he might become.

 Summary


This was only the first pre-season game, so final judgments would be premature. But it appears the Patriots hit on a few offensive weapons in the 2011 draft, and that they might have their desperately needed home run threat in Price.
 
With just three more games to make an impression, expect Price, Ridley, and Fletcher to see more playing time. And it wouldn't surprise me to see Butler get cut (or traded or put on the DL) before the season started.
 
Keep the faith,
 
- Scott

PS.  0-0!

Patriots 35, Jaguars 7 (12/27/2009)

Sorry this is late; holiday stuff and all. The Patriots did their usual thing with the Jaguars -- played with them like a cat with a straw, whipping them 35-7 in a game that wasn't even *that* close. The victory made them AFC East champs, guaranteeing a home playoff game, and giving them a decent chance at the #3 seed in the AFC.

The O-line had its best day of the season, no surprise since they finally had their five best linemen together for the game. If you want a barometer of the Patriots chances in the post-season, when the telecast shows the starting lineup for their playoff game (or games), the Patriots will do well if it reads: Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal, and Sebastian Vollmer. They probably won't do quite as well if Dan Connolly or Nick Kazcur are on that list. With Neal and Vollmer back, the Patriots gave up no sacks and no quarterback hits, ran for 197 yards and 5.5 yards per carry, and Tom Brady completed 88.5% of his passes.

In fact, Brady would love to play Jacksonville every week, because he just shreds their defense. Consider this trivia question: True or false, Tom Brady has more touchdowns than incomplete passes in the last two games versus the Jaguars (answer below)? Just the fact that you have to *think* about that should make it clear that Brady owns the Jags defense. Maybe they need to try something new next time, because the "rush three and play a tight zone" just isn't working out for them.

The receiving corps did quite well, with Wes Welker providing the grind-it-out yards (13 catches for 138 yards), and Randy Moss providing the scoring (4 catches, 3 touchdowns). Chris Baker added a TD on a nice back-shoulder grab. Extra note #1: Randy Moss did a very good job blocking down field on running plays and some passing plays -- no question about his effort on Sunday. Extra note #2: Wes Welker is going to lead the league in receptions again this season and might set a new record for receptions per game (he is currently at 9.38 catches per game, the old record is under 9.00 catches per game). Make sure you don't take him for granted; you probably won't see a more productive tandem than Brady-Welker in your lifetime, and Welker is the likely team MVP.

Oh yeah, and that running game. Laurence Maroney fumbled at the one yardline and was done for the day, so Sammy Morris came in to fill the void with 12 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown. And Fred Taylor did indeed return to run against his old mates -- 11 carries for 35 yards, mostly in garbage time. As for Maroney, he is running better these days but needs to get his head into the game; that was his third fumble inside the opponent 5 yardline this season, and a failure like that in the playoffs would be disasterous.

The defense was playing against an undermanned offensive line, so their stats probably look inflated. However, even with that the linebackers played exceptionally well. Jerod Mayo looked like the Mayo of last year, running sideline to sideline, tracking down plays from behind, and holding up in the middle against offensive linemen. The Jags tried to block Tully Banta-Cain with a tight end, and that was a mismatch in the Patriots favor, as Banta-Cain got another sack, two quarterback hits, and forced a fumble. He also caused general mayhem on inside runs, though he got beaten to the outside a few times.

The most surprising was the play of two of the "go home" linebackers, Adalius Thomas and Derrick Burgess. Thomas was everywhere, doing a nice job in coverage and making sure tackles. And Burgess didn't show up much on the stat sheet, but did a good job forcing the pocket to move and, in a surprise upset, forcing the run inside. It's possible neither of them will be back next year, and maybe they think they'll get more money in free agency if they play better now. But whatever the reason, they are coming on at just the right time.

On the D-line, the only standout was Myron Pryor. He is no Vince Wilfork, but at least he stood his ground against double-teams, unlike the completely overmatched Ron Brace last week. It showed in the running game, where the Pats held Jacksonville to 98 yards on the ground, well below their 128.5 average coming in. After a great game in Buffalo, Mike Wright was down a bit, missing several tackles that would have gone for losses. But even so, the front seven pestered Jacksonville QB David Garrard all day -- 2 sacks and 7 QB hits. And even with Wright and Pryor stepping up, the Patriots need Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren (who returned in limited action yesterday) for the playoffs.

Big hits and sure tackles were the order of the day in the secondary. Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders stopped the Jags short on consecutive third- and fourth-down plays early, giving the Patriots great field position for their first score. And Sanders followed that up with several bone-crushing hits and third-down stops. Meriweather added his fifth INT of the season, and Shawn Springs got his first pick of the year. Springs had been out for a while, but his return helped solidify things in the defensive backfield.

There was one things special about the Patriots special teams: rookie Kyle Arrington. He had five special teams tackles yesterday (2 solo, 3 assisted), and is quite the revelation for a rookie who was cut by a team the Patriots whacked earlier this season (trivia question #2: can you name that team? -- answer below).

As for the coaching, Belichick looks like a semi-genius for sending Moss, Guyton, Burgess, and Thomas home for being late a few weeks back. Only Guyton has not picked up his play since then, and despite columnists who said BB was losing the team, the Patriots rallied together since that incident. True, they are playing inferior competition, but there are fewer mistakes and easier victories since that controversy.

So where does that leave us? With a home playoff game assured, they might rest some starters against the Texans next Sunday. The only team that scares me that first playoff weekend is the Broncos, who *always* beat the Patriots. The Ravens could give them trouble; they nearly beat the Patriots in Foxboro this year. The other wild card contenders shouldn't scare anyone on the team. As for setting up that second game (should they win the first one), I think they are better off playing the Colts. They almost beat them in Indy this year, and would probably fare better against them than the more physical and balanced Chargers.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: At the half, the Patriots had more rushing yards (141) and more passing yards (150) than the Jaguars had total yards (133).

Bonus oddities; the Patriots have a chance to lead the NFL in time of possession (currently tied for first with 33:24 per game), total plays from scrimmage (currently 13 behind the Dolphins), and fewest points given up (currently 15 behind the Jets, who play a prolific Cincinnati Bengals team this week).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the Pats start that offensive line and get Vince Wilfork back for the playoffs, they could make some noise. Stephen Neal makes that much of a difference."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-5!

PPS. Trivia answer #1: True. Brady has 7 touchdowns and only 5 incompletions in his last two games against Jacksonville.

PPPS. Trivia answer #2: Kyle Arrington was cut by Tampa Bay, whom the Patriots beat 35-7 in London.

Patriots 31, Jaguars 20 (1/12/2008)

A phenomenal offensive game + a stingy second half defense = another victory for your New England Patriots. This time, Jacksonville limped home with a well-earned 31-20 loss that put the Patriots in the AFC Championship game for the second consecutive year. Also, the Colts lost to San Diego, so that means the Pats will play the Chargers on Sunday -- a team they beat in the post-season last year and in the regular season this year.

The Jacksonville defense tried to stop the Pats by doing what they do best, rushing four and dropping seven into coverage. Admirable to try what got you to the playoffs, but foolhardy against a Patriots team that waxed every single team that did that in the regular season. For weeks, it’s been obvious that you can’t stay close to the Patriots without blitz pressure and tight coverage on the receivers.

So how did that plan work? With barely a whiff of pressure, Tom Brady went 26 of 28 (an NFL record 92.9 completion percentage) for 262 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. He controlled the game with pinpoint throws to Wes Welker (9 catches for 54 yards and 1 touchdown), and running backs Kevin Faulk and Laurence Maroney (a combined for 7 catches and 76 yards). And he threw two short touchdowns to long-forgotten Ben Watson (his first touchdown grabs since November 18).

Overall, the receiving corps had one of the best games I’ve ever seen a group of receivers have. They helped control the game with short receptions, dropped only two passes, didn’t fumble once, and blocked extremely well in the running game and the short passing game. Donte Stallworth had two huge catches late in the game (a third-down conversion and a 53-yarder on the Patriots last scoring drive). But his blocking on Wes Welker’s quick-hitch and screen passes was the best I’ve seen him all year, and often turned losses into gains. Randy Moss had only one catch, an important fourth-down conversion on the team’s first drive, but his blocking helped spring Laurence Maroney in the running game.

And with the great passing to loosen up the defense and great blocking (by both the receivers and offensive line), the running game had its best performance in any close game this year. Maroney was a beast out there, notching 122 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. He ran with an attitude, pushing the pile for extra yards more than once. And overall, the Patriots out-gained the vaunted Jacksonville running attack, 145 to 80. And with just one sack and two quarterback hits allowed and 145 yards on the ground, the O-line should get some credit. So here I am, giving them some. Good job, guys.

It was a dominating performance by the offense. They had scoring chances on six of seven important drives (one missed field goal), converted 60% on third down, averaged almost nine yards per pass attempt, had just one penalty, and held a five-minute advantage in time of possession. Want more proof, take a gander at the Jags defensive line: 1 sack (4 yards), 2 quarterback hits, zero interceptions, zero passes knocked down, and zero forced fumbles. That’s a lot of zeros for a playoff team.

To stop the Jaguars running game, the Patriots started James Sanders and Randall Gay, both of whom are better in run support than the usual starters (Eugene Wilson and Ellis Hobbs, respectively). Sanders responded with eight tackles and Gay had seven. Rodney Harrison dropped one sure interception and got the game-sealing pick later. But he has to stop the foolish personal foul penalties – three of them in the last two games.

There has already been some sports-talk buzz about poor play by the secondary, as Jacksonville threw the ball at will. But in this game, the idea was to stop the run first, and then make sure the Jaguar receivers didn’t get behind the defense or make yards after the catch. And you can’t argue with the results -- Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 19 carries and 66 yards, 65% below their average output and numbers they topped *individually* 13 times this season.

Of course, the front seven “pitched in” to stop the run, too. Junior Seau (10) and Tedy Bruschi (7) led the linebackers in tackles, and Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas did a great job setting the edge and forcing the run back inside. Vince Wilfork and Richard Seymour (who is indeed starting to play better) had 5 and 4 tackles, respectively, and Ty Warren added a sack, a forced fumble, and 2 quarterback hits to his 5 tackles. So very solid play by the line, nothing flashy and no big plays allowed.

Special teams gave their usual up-and-down performance. They covered well, especially on a reverse on a kickoff return (nice job by Heath Evans and Kelley Washington). And given the explosive nature of the Jacksonville special teams, we should probably be happy there were no big returns against the Patriots, but here are two nitpicks. Chad Jackson averaged six-yards less per kickoff return than usual return man (Ellis Hobbs), though thankfully, he didn’t fumble after being on the bench most of the year. And Stephen Gostkowski just has to be able to make a 35-yard field goal. It was his first playoff miss, and here’s hoping it’s his last.

The coaches put together a great game plan, and stuck to it when others might have panicked. It was the reverse plan from the 1990 Super Bowl, when the Giants defensive coordinator (some guy named Belichick) told his team that to beat the Buffalo Bills, they would need to allow the Bills to run the ball all they wanted, but stop the pass. This time, it was the run that was the threat, and the Patriots took that away instead. Also, some special praise for defensive coordinator Dean Pees. His halftime adjustments have been crucial to the Patriots success. In the 11 close games this year, the defense has allowed only 6.7 points per second half (including 6 in Saturday's playoff game).

So where does that leave us? 1-0 in the playoffs must mean we’re on the field again next week – woo-hoo! It’ll be the Patriots vs. Chargers in the AFC Championship game this Sunday at Foxboro (3:00). To be honest, I was hoping to play the Colts, because they play a similar defense to Jacksonville’s. But it’s probably just as well we don’t have to worry about a last-minute comeback by Peyton Manning.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: David Garrard threw three interceptions in the regular season and three in the playoffs. Not quite as magical as Tom Brady, after all.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Maybe Jack Del Rio [Jacksonville head coach] doesn’t know how to blitz. I mean, you’d think he would make some changes after Brady started out 14 for 14.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

1-0!
&
17-0!

Preview of Patriots vs. Jaguars (1/8/2007)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming to town, and they are not your father's Florida team. The aren't affected by weather (they beat the Steelers in the snow a few weeks back), they dominate with the run, have huge receivers, and a very physical defense. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are play-makers at running back, and their defensive line is massive and can stop the run and get pressure on the quarterback without blitzes. Jacksonville finished the season 11-5, and led the league in scoring the second half of the season (32 points per game). They recorded road wins against three playoff teams (Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh) and they won't be intimidated by what mother nature has in store this Saturday.

So I guess the Patriots shouldn't show up, eh? No chance of that -- after all they're the #1 seed for a reason. With last week off, they should be healthy for the first time in a few weeks (all reports are that Ben Watson, Kyle Brady, Stephen Neal, and Nick Kazcur will be ready). In the regular season, the Pats had highest scoring offense and gave up the fourth-fewest points. They are solid in the kicking game and are undefeated in home playoff games under Bill Belichick (6-0). Confidence should be at an all time high, and weapons like like Brady, Moss, and Welker should help put a decent number of points on the board (which could bode well, as it might make the Jags abandon the run for the pass).

HOW JACKSONVILLE CAN WIN

Point #1. One if by land.

At times this season, the Patriots struggled to stop the run, though it was mostly against teams with balanced offenses. If the Jags run the ball well, they can force the Patriots to adjust their defense, thus leaving single coverage on some of the Jacksonville receivers. That would be a mismatch they can use to their advantage as the game goes on, but it is all predicated on running the ball. Jacksonville can (and probably will) pound the ball -- it's the strength of their game. They averaged 149.4 yards a game and 4.6 yards a carry, notched 22 rushes of over 20 yards, and even though they ran the ball 522 times (second-most in the league), they had just 4 fumbles all season.

The problem with continually running the ball is New England's offense. If the Patriots come out of the chute quickly, the Jags could fall behind, and it is imperative that they don't panic if that happens. It would help if their defense could stop the Patriots early, to give their offense a chance to get a rhythm going. But hey don't have the quarterback or receivers to get into a high-scoring game with the Patriots, so patience with the run is paramount.

Point #2. Don't depend on the kindness of strangers.

Jacksonville should keep in mind that, unlike Pittsburgh, the Patriots probably won't turn the ball over four times, won't have as much trouble moving the ball as the Steelers did, and won't make mistakes on two-point conversions and play-calling late in the game. So if the Jags have the lead in the second half, they have to stay aggressive and keep trying to score, because the Patriots offense will get plenty of points. And if the Jags get behind -- as they did late in the game last week -- they can't wait around for the Patriots to self-destruct. The Patriots are far less likely to make crucial mistakes to help the Jaguars get back in the game. For example, if the Patriots are leading by one point and can kill the clock with another first down, they probably won't call three running plays in a row (the third being a QB draw on third-and-six), and then punt the ball back to the Jags. Just saying, I don't see that happening.

Point #3. Let David try to slay Goliath.

Five weeks ago, the Steelers came to Foxboro to with a stellar running game and thought they'd beat the Pats by ramming it down their throat and playing solid defense. They did run the ball well -- 32 carries, 181 yards, 5.7 yards a carry. But their quarterback could muster only 187 yards through the air and had only one big play, and the Patriots coasted to a 21-point win. The lesson of that game is that no team has stayed close to the Patriots by just running, and even with their vaunted ground game, the Jaguars will be no different.

Eventually the Jaguars will have to get good plays in the passing game from quarterback David Garrard to win. When they almost beat the Patriots in 2006 (they lost, 24-21), they had big plays on all three scoring drives, and two of the three came through the air. This season, Garrard posted the second-best quarterback rating (102.2), the fewest interceptions (3), and was just .1-yards from being tied for third most yards per attempt (7.7). He's not playoff tested but he has started 31 games (including last week) and should be ready to lead the team.

So take the training wheels off of David Garrard, if you hold out any hope of winning on Saturday.

HOW NEW ENGLAND CAN WIN

Point #1. The Jaguars are already out of their comfort zone -- keep them there.

Jacksonville likes to play their base defense and pressure the quarterback by rushing four down linemen and no blitzers. They also prefer to play their corners off and keep passes in front of them, although they have shown of a willingness to bring them up in tight coverage. The problem is that not blitzing and playing off the receivers has been completely ineffective against the 2007 Patriots. The teams that stayed close to the Pats blitzed from all angles and played press coverage on the receivers. And Jacksonville is a team that (a) doesn't do that very much and (b) doesn't have the personnel to pull it off when they try it.

If they bring their corners up to press the receivers, they are vulnerable to the deep threat, because their corners aren't good enough to hold that coverage down the field. And if they play off, the Patriots offense will nickel-and-dime them down the field. And if they can't get pressure and then have to start blitzing, it opens them up to all kinds of havoc, with players either out of position or holes in the defense for Tom Brady to exploit.

Jacksonville might well try to blitz and/or play tight on the receivers, but it isn't what they do best. So before the Patriots even take the field, the Jags will almost certainly try some things they aren't used to doing. Belichick likes to take teams out of their comfort zones, but in this game, Jacksonville should start the game that way -- it will be the Patriots job to keep them there.

Point #2. Score early, score often.

It isn't critical to get an early lead, but if the Patriots do, they will be more than half way to winning. This year, the Patriots have allowed only 2 of 16 opponents to score on the opening drive. Conversely, the Patriots have scored on their own opening drive 13 of 16 games this year. That means the Patriots had early leads in 13 of 16 games this year, and nothing about Jacksonville would make you think it will be any different in this game. In fact, Jacksonville scored on only 6 of 16 first drives this year, one of the slowest starting teams in the NFL.

Falling behind might not be that bad... when you're playing, say, the Kansas City Chiefs. But if the Patriots get out in front, they won't be shy about keeping the pressure on by scoring more and more (just ask Joe Gibbs). And a large deficit would make the Jaguars more likely to pass, which they aren't accustomed to doing. So scoring early and often would put the Jaguars in the position the Patriots would love the most -- trying to win with their second- or third-best options.

Point #3. The regular season is over, but 16-0 still means something.

The Patriots rank first or second in most offensive categories, Jacksonville ranks sixth or seventh. The Patriots have eight Pro Bowl players, the Jaguars none. The Pats beat the Colts and Steelers (easily), while Jacksonville lost twice to the Colts and needed late comebacks to beat Steelers. The Patriots finished five games ahead of Jax, are playing at home, and should be well rested. And perhaps most important of all, the Patriots are 14-3 in the playoffs under Belichick (6-0 at home), and the Jaguars are only 1-1 under Jack Del Rio.

The Patriots won't win this game if they don't play well, but they don't have to play a perfect game to win. On the other hand, the Jaguars do have to play a perfect game to win. The talent disparity is that substantial.

QUICK POINTS

A) Against the Steelers last week, the Jaguars had 19 guys playing in their first playoff game. On Saturday, the Patriots will likely have 3 -- Kyle Eckel, Brandon Meriweather, and Mel Mitchell (all part-timers and special teams guys).

B) Don't be too concerned about the way Jacksonville handled the Steelers. Pittsburgh was only 3-2 versus teams with a winning record, and lost to the Cardinals (8-8), Broncos (7-9), Jets (4-12), and Ravens (5-11). Blech!

C) The Patriots and Jaguars have met twice in the playoffs, with the home team taking each game. The Jags beat the Pete Carroll-coached 1998 team, 25-10; the Pats beat the Jaguars 28-3 after the 2005 season.

THE BOTTOM LINE

That Patriots will have to play well to win on Saturday, but all signs point to a victory. They were better in the regular season, have an absolute boatload of playoff experience, scored more points and gave up fewer than Jacksonville. The Jags will present some problems with their running game, and it will be imperative to maintain discipline in plugging holes and not overrun the play. But no team is better at making the adjustments needed to stop what their opponent does best. Jax could also spring some surprise blitzes to confuse the Patriots. For that, the Patriots need to be ready to call timeouts and/or make adjustments quickly to handle that pressure. Fortunately, they are the best in the NFL at changing their plans on the fly -- however, they'll need to be careful not to turn the ball over while they are figuring things out.

If the Jaguars stick with their normal pressure package, the game could be easier than most people think. The Pats shredded teams that tried the bend-but-don't-break defense, and there won't be any noise to distract the Patriots offense (what with the home crowd and all). So if you see four-or-fewer Jacksonville pass rushers, prepare for a good offensive day. The Patriots will use the running game sparingly (as usual), and eventually, the Jaguar pass rushers will start to tire of chasing Brady, which could make it even easier for the NFL MVP.

I don't envision a blowout, given Jacksonville's tendency to slow the game down with the running attack and their hesitance to veer from their game plan. The only blowout scenario I can envision is if one team gets behind and tries to pass to get back into the game and that leads to turnovers. It could happen, but I wouldn't predict it. More likely is a tough, hard-fought game with a final score like Patriots 31, Jaguars 20. But win-by-1 or win-by-21, I just hope I'll have to use my tickets for the AFC Championship Game the next week :)

The Most Ridiculous, Astounding, Stupendous, Jaw-dropping, Insane, You-Just-Can't-Believe-It, You-Gotta-Be-Frickin'-Kidding-Me Statistical Oddity of All Time: The Jacksonville Jaguars have more losses on artificial turf this year (3) than Tom Brady has in his career (2). Brady is an abacus-melting 35-2 on the fake stuff in his career. (And take note, Saturday's game is on artificial turf.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "There is something magical about the season David Garrard had. I just hope it isn't the same kind of magic Tom Brady had in 2001."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

0-0!
&
16-0!