Patriots Fall to Broncos 18-12

The depleted Patriots lost to the depleted Broncos, 18-12, in a game that wasn't as close as the final score. The loss drops the Pats to 2-3, in third place in the AFC East behind the 4-1 Bills and 3-3 Dolphins. Next week the 49ers cross the country to play in Foxboro at 4:25.

Once again this team reminded me of the pre-Belichick Pats. Too many mental errors, missed opportunities, chunk plays given up, and turnovers to win much in the NFL.

The offensive line was flat-out horrible. Gave up four sacks, lots more pressures, eight QB hits, didn't block well on screen passes, were bad in the running game, and didn't pick up blitzes particularly well.

Continuity and time spent practicing together are keys to offensive line play. Well, the Patriots lost longtime O-line coach Dante Scarnecchia in the off-season, have started three different centers, and due to injuries/COVID not one single player has started every game at the same position this season. (And a reminder; the season is only FIVE games old!)

With a makeshift offensive line, QB Cam Newton cannot wait 4+ seconds to get rid of the ball. The four sacks weren't all on the O-line. And he tossed two INTs, had a fumble, and had at least two passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage.

Newton's running plays are excellent, and he led the team with 76 yards. But they won't get far if all they can do is run -- they need explosive plays down the field, at least some of the time.

The running backs couldn't run, totaling 41 yards on 16 carries (2.6 ypc). James White had eight catches for 65 yards, but he was poor in blitz pickup. Damien Harris showed good burst early, but for some reason the Pats appeared to want to give touches to all the backs -- which backfired when Rex Burkhead and James White got stuffed more than once.

The receivers continually fail tooooo -- stop me if you've heard this -- to get separation against man-coverage. I know, sounds like last year, right? Only Damiere Byrd is quick enough to get free, but it's his first year here and he doesn't know the offense all that well.

The tight ends? Ryan Izzo had three catches for minimal yards and an absolute killer lost fumble.

The defense was just really weird. They gave up huge plays at really inopportune times. Allowing a 35-yard completion on third-and-21 was disheartening and ridiculous. Especially for a team with this much talent in the secondary.

However, the defense also stiffened near their own goal line, allowing six field goals and no touchdowns. (And that includes a questionable penalty that gave the Broncos a first-and-goal at the four yard line. Denver lost one yard on the next three plays and then kicked a short field goal.)

Linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley had his best game this year (12 tackles, 2 QB hits, and got in on a sack). But he is still inconsistent -- missing some assignments and getting knocked off his feet too often. In fact, their best linebacker might be Adrian Phillips... except he plays safety (he plays near the line like a LB most of the time).

Corners Jonathan Jones (3) and J.C. Jackson (2) knocked away five passes total and each had an interception -- on back-to-back Denver plays. But somehow they just couldn't make a key play early in the game that could turn the tide of a Broncos' offense that gained yards and ate the clock all game long.

The coaching needs to be more cognizant of their players limitations.

On defense, they continue to have Bentley in pass coverage when he can't do it. On pass plays he should rush the quarterback and they backfill the coverage with a safety.

And on offense, they can't call for deep passes when their O-line has that many replacements. Not that a few good targets wouldn't help more -- but the coaches have to put them in position to succeed, not to fail.

The one coaching decision that did work out was odd -- they called two gadget plays and both worked really well. They might note that, because all the gadget plays are ones the team practiced multiple times a week for years. So if they don't have as much practice time during the week, maybe those should use more of those plays.

Where does that leave us? The team is struggling. Lots of positive COVID tests, multiple players in or out on a daily or weekly basis, the facilities closing for days at a time to clean things up. It's a tough thing to get through, but somehow they have to get wins in games like this where the changes were all there for them.

Biggest on-going issue: COVID. Is the game on or off, which players are in or out on a weekly basis, and why are they having continual outbreaks when other teams are not. The uncertainty erodes their effectiveness.

Non-QB MVP: Punter Jake Bailey, who had three kicks for a 48.3 average, no returns, and two downed inside the 20 yard line. He also kicked off, as usual.

Statistical oddity: This is the first time the Patriots had a losing record in October since 2001. Once every 19 years pretty much makes this an oddity.

Water-cooler wisdom: "If you wanted the NFL to play, this is a good reminder to be careful what you wish for."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-3!

Pats Rams SB Preview

As you've no doubt noticed, there was a disturbing lack of emails and updates during the playoffs. Sorry folks, but life intruded and I just didn't have the time.

However, I did have a few thoughts on the big game, now that they've gotten there. Mostly, it's the keys to the game when the Pats are on offense and defense. Here we go...

When the Patriots have the ball

When the Pats are on offense, it'll come down to how LA defensive coordinator Wade Phillips does. He struggled to stop Brady for years (his defenses literally went almost 10 years without intercepting a single Brady pass), but he's beaten the GOAT the last two times. And he won those games by bringing pressure instead of sitting back in a zone. (Also, it didn't hurt that Peyton Manning helmed the offense for those Broncos teams.)

You can bank on Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will have a great plan entering the game. Because in the first two playoff games, his plans have been nearly flawless. Here are the numbers for the first two drives of the games against the Chargers and Chiefs:

• 25:00 of possession time
• 286 yards
• 9 of 10 on third down conversions
• 21 points

And if not for a foolish interception by Brady, it would have been 10 of 10 on third down and 28 points in four possessions. Impressive beginnings to both games, to say the least.

McDaniels is dialed in this year. The previous seven playoff games, New England failed to score a first-drive touchdown. This year, they were unstoppable early in their first two games.

This is where Phillips comes in. In the two games he beat Brady, his defense totaled 7 sacks and an amazing 26 QB hits! He brought pressure and it paid off.

For the record, both games were in Denver, where the crowd noise made it harder for the Patriots O-line to communicate. And that won't be the case in the Super Bowl; that corporate crowd will only be slightly louder than a theater playing "A Quiet Place."

But Phillips should have learned his lesson by now. He took one thrashing after another playing his usual "four man rush, seven man zone." If he tries it again this Sunday, the Patriots will already be over halfway to a victory.

When the Rams have the ball

On Los Angeles possessions, it'll all come down to whether Jared Goff turns the ball over in the first half. The LA quarterback gave up 18 turnovers (5 fumbles lost, 13 interceptions) this past season, which is slightly more than 1 per game. And Belichick defenses usually confused young quarterbacks, especially the first time they face a Belichick defense.

Add to that this year's D-coordinator (and soon-to-be Miami head coach) Brian Flores, who employs multiple exotic defenses and schemes all over the field. The Patriots ran more stunts and games up front, and deployed more of the Amoeba, Bullseye, and "one down lineman" fronts than in past years. It's paid off by masking a general talent drain, but that aside, it's been extremely effective.

But it works best in the first half. Best evidence of that is the two Chiefs games. KC scored a total of 9 first half points in the two games, but they scored 62 total in the combined second halves. This shows the Patriots defense is hard to decipher at first, but once good offensive teams figure it out, watch out!

Goff doesn't need to get off to an amazing start. His young counterpart, Patrick Mahomes, didn't for the Chiefs, but they still came back to tie the game in the second half.

However, if Goff commits the cardinal sin, if he turns over the ball (especially in the first half), it'll spell real trouble for the Rams.

The rest of it

As for the rest of it, it's mostly a wash. The Patriots have much more experience, but the Rams have more talent. The Pats have a perceived coaching advantage, but no one has seen LA wunderkind Sean McVay in the big game, so no telling how he will do.

Each team's special teams have advantages and weaknesses, but those should mostly cancel each other out. And both offensive and defensive lines are playing their best football of the season right now.

Aside from the experience advantage, the Patriots do have one other thing in their favor: the two-week break. Think back to how dominant they were from the get-go against the LA Chargers. That was after a Bye week.

Rest can't be overrated for a team with this many veteran players. And the first two playoff games showed how much it helps.

That's about it; hope you enjoy the game and that you enjoyed my thoughts on the season. I'm sure I'll write up something post-game -- here's hoping it's a celebration, not a lamentation :D

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 13-5 & 2-0!

Pats Coast To 41-16 Win Over Denver

In case you went to bed at the half, the Patriots finished off the Broncos last night, 41-16. The win ran their record to 7-2, tied atop the AFC with the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are two games clear in the AFC East now, with the division crown looking more inevitable all the time. Next week the Pats take on the reeling Raiders in Mexico City.

The story line today will be how the Patriots special teams totally outplayed Denver's, which led to an easy victory. But that misses the point; special teams was a mismatch to be sure, but the Patriots improving defense and diverse offense outplayed Denver's units as well. All that said, here are some of the special teams highlights...

The Pats kickoff team executed its usual strategy of kicking high/short and covering well. This forced returns (because the ball wasn't in the end zone) and allowed the coverage team to keep the opponent inside the 25 yard line. But when the Broncos tried it, they gave up a 103-yard touchdown to Dion Lewis. And frankly, there's no way they should try that -- it isn't their game, and Lewis had a huge return in the Patriots previous game, too.

Denver also fumbled the Patriots first punt of the night, turning the ball back to the Pats who promptly scored a touchdown. And Pats running back Rex Burkhead blocked another punt. But the last special teams disaster was probably the sweetest of all: a five-yard penalty for too many men on the field, which negated a Pats punt and gave them a first down instead. Naturally the Patriots scored a touchdown on that drive.

On offense the Pats started out by exploiting their running backs in mismatches with Denver linebackers. But by the end of the game, the leading receivers were wideouts and tight end Rob Gronkowski.

The final stats were very impressive; quarterback Tom Brady completed passes to nine different receivers, with eight of them catching multiple passes. No team can stop that kind of diversified attack, because no team has enough talent across the board to do it. Denver needed heavy pressure on Brady but had only one sack and four QB hits.

Brady finished 25 of 34 (74%), 266 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 125.4 QB rating. He is currently the highest rated quarterback by Pro Football Focus, a site that breaks down the All-22 video of every play in every game. Brady's longest pass was 27 yards, but the short- to medium-passes over the middle were open early and often. The team never bothered to attack the outside corners, the strength of the Broncos defense.

The running game was effective in spurts, with Lewis (14 carries for 55 yards, and 1 TD) and Burkhead (10 of 36) carrying the bulk of the load. Most impressive was the blocking of the offensive line and especially fullback James Develin. He blasted linebackers multiple times, and never once in the game whiffed entirely on a block. A stellar game for an under-appreciated player.

The O-line deserves a lot of credit for keeping Brady clean and blocking well on running plays. But you should temper your enthusiasm a bit; the lack of pressure on Brady was largely due to quick-release passes. He did stand in the pocket a few times, but he mostly avoided pressure by hitting receivers on-time and in rhythm to keep the Denver rush at bay.

The Pats secondary didn't always look great. Corner Malcolm Butler gave up a few big plays to Denver's Emmanuel Sanders, with whom he was matched up one-on-one all night. It was a tough draw for him, but he battled all game long and made more plays later in the game to stop third-down conversions and force Broncos kicks.

Fellow corner Stephon Gilmore returned from a concussion and played much better. Of course, the defensive scheme was mostly man-coverage, which is his preferred way to play. So it won't be clear how much progress he's made in learning the defense until they play more zone. One other note on the defense: they had six passes defended by six different players. So they are playing very good team defense, at just the right time of year.

At linebacker, David Harris is actually playing better, which is astounding. He was invisible early in the year, but he made plays against both the run and the pass last night. Kyle Van Noy led the team with five tackles, and Elandon Roberts even played well in the absence of Cassius Marsh. I also noticed lineman Trey Flowers dropping into coverage again on a few plays; makes me wonder if they are moving him into Rob Ninkovich's former role as lineman/linebacker.

Speaking of the defensive line, the Pats don't have any supremely talented players there, but they have depth, depth, and more depth. Malcom Brown was out with an injury, but Alan Branch improved his play to make up for it. And they have semi-interchangeable parts all across the line: Lawrence Guy, Branch, Adam Butler, Deatrich Wise, Jr., Flowers, and newly added Ricky Jean Francois. They just keep coming in waves, mostly the same type of player, but fresh every new set of downs.

The coaching was solid if no spectacular. The Patriots obviously used the bye week to put in a few wrinkles with running backs in the passing game, which worked perfectly. But mostly it was a game of making Denver settle for field goals (four of them) while the Pats scored touchdowns.

Not to make light of the defensive coaching -- the Pats have given up 17 or fewer points in each of their last five games. But most any defense would look good against Denver's current offense. It's time for the Broncos to remake their offense, starting with getting a real QB under center.

So where does that leave us? 7-2 isn't bad at all, even better is the two-game cushion in the AFC East. The Patriots play the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a few weeks; that game could determine home field throughout the AFC playoffs. (That's right, I said "Playoffs!")

Non-Brady MVP: Running back Rex Burkhead had some nifty runs, caught a few passes (including a touchdown), and blocked a punt. A pretty good day.

Statistical Oddity: The AFC South is the only NFL division with a first-place tie. The oddity is that the 6-3 Jaguars have a +92 point differential for the season, while the 6-3 Titans are -8 on the year. That's an impressive 100-point difference between two teams with identical records.

And the -8 Titans are technically in first place because they beat the Jags earlier in the year. Tell me *that* isn't an oddity!

Weekly Water-Cooler Wisdom: "With Bennett in the fold, and Burkhead growing into his role, the offense looks unstoppable."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 7-2!

Patriots Get Rare Win In Denver, 16-3

The Patriots beat the hated Broncos 16-3 yesterday, in a game that was closer than the final score indicated. The win runs their record to 12-2, and it gives the Patriots the AFC East title and a first-round by in the playoffs! Next up are the woeful Jets on Saturday, with a chance to cement the overall #1 AFC seed.

All credit to the defense for this win. Four sacks of Denver QB Trevor Siemian, 58 yards rushing allowed, held the Broncos to 2-of-12 (17%) on third-down conversions, and got two turnovers. They hit hard, controlled the line of scrimmage, and shut down dangerous receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Note: the Patriots have given up the fewest points in the NFL this season.

The secondary had the best day of any unit. Corner Logan Ryan led the team with seven tackles, and added a pass defended, another QB pressure, and a huge interception (returned 46 yards). Malcolm Butler shut down Sanders, and safety Devin McCourty had five tackles, a massive hit that forced an important incompletion, and he recovered a fumble. Even Eric Rowe had a decent game, as did Patrick Chung. Overall, the secondary's best game since the Houston rout in week 2.

The defensive line was next on the hit parade. Malcom Brown and Alan Branch controlled the middle of the line, forcing Denver to run outside exclusively, which they don't like to do. The Broncos love cut-back runs, but there weren't any lanes available with those two monsters inside.

Trey Flowers extended his team lead in sacks with two more. He has seven for the year, and has only started six games! His speed is rare for a Patriots inside-lineman, and compares favorably with Chris Long on the outside. Speaking of Long, he disrupted multiple timing throws by forcing the QB to move in the pocket. And Jabaal Sheard looked like his old self, powering through blockers to get a sack and two QB hits.

On the stat line, Kyle Van Noy won the day among linebackers. He had six tackles, including one for a loss, and he forced a fumble. Dont'a Hightower didn't make many plays, but that might have indicated the Broncos running and passing away from him. He didn't appear gimpy or out of position, but his teammates just made more plays than he did.

On offense, the running backs did most of the damage. For the first time this season, LeGarrette Blount wasn't the Patriots leading rusher. That honor went to Dion Lewis, who juked his way to 95 yards on 18 carries (5.3 ypc). He showed the same burst and shiftiness from last season, and his style was the change-up needed to beat the Broncos defensive speed. Fullback James Develin deserves special mention, as he was the lead blocker most of the game for a running attack that kept the Broncos off-balance.

And the Patriots needed the running game, because quarterback Tom Brady started the game 0-6 and had trouble finding open receivers all day. Brady ended up with his lamest stat line of the season, completing only 50% of his passes for 188 yards, zero touchdowns, and a QB rating of just 68.2. But perhaps most important was that he threw no interceptions, protecting the ball to help win the turnover battle. He also used play-action fakes to excellent effect, though offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels should have used that even more.

The receivers had trouble getting open, and the team became much too dependent on wideout Julian Edelman. He was targeted 12 times, catching six passes for 75 yards. Brady and James White failed to connect on the first three passes thrown his way, twice it was Brady's fault, and once it was White's. But all of this probably owes to the Broncos insisting the Patriots beat them on the ground, which they were all too happy to do.

The offensive line blocked well on both run and pass plays. In this game, the Broncos had two sacks and five QB hits; in the AFC Championship Game in January, they had four and 20, respectively. Yesterday, tackles Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon contained the outside rush, with chipping help from the tight ends and running backs.

Marcus Cannon did a great job slowing down Super Bowl MVP Von Miller, who registered no sacks or QB hits in the game. The commentators pointed out that Cannon played with his hands down until Miller engaged him, then he'd use his superior strength to push him back or angle him away from Brady. This runs counter to most games, where O-linemen try to hit the defenders first. But it took away Miller's hand-fighting advantage, so it was a great plan and execution by the coaching staff and Cannon.

Special teams earned their name this week. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski continued his improved run with three field goals and angled kickoffs. The coverage unit downed three punts inside the Broncos 20 yard-line, and even came up with a turnover on a muffed fair catch.

So where does that leave us? 12-2 and in the driver's seat for the #1 overall seed in the AFC. Not bad for a team whose starting quarterback was suspended four games to start the season. The Jets game should be another win, but even if the Patriots do win that game, they need a loss or tie by the Raiders to secure the #1 seed.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Logan Ryan turned the tide with his interception and led the team in tackles.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Brady is 5-3 in games when he posts a sub-70 QB rating without throwing an interception, and all three losses have come against the Miami Dolphins.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: Broncos fans should not despair; the last three years in which the Patriots won in Denver, the Broncos made the playoffs. (Trivia question: can you name all three years? Answer below...)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It's the defense that's stepping up now. Giving up just three points on the road against any NFL team is an accomplishment."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-2!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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The Broncos made the playoffs in the 2000, 2003, and 2011 seasons, after losing to the Patriots at home each of those years.

Patriots Outlasted By Broncos, 20-18

Sigh. The Patriots came up just short yesterday, losing 20-18 to the Broncos. That means no trip to the Super Bowl, no chance that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has to swallow his tongue handing the Lombardi Trophy to Robert Kraft, and no chance that Brady gets that fifth ring this year.

Despite the close final score, the Broncos defense dominated play. They sacked Tom Brady 4 times and hit him 20 times in the game (according to some reports, 20 is the highest total for any NFL game this season). And even that might have been survivable, if the Pats receivers could get quick enough separation. But that's where Denver's D did the job; they jammed receivers at the line and dropped in to short zones that didn't allow for the quick releases necessary to keep Brady upright.

The Patriots offensive line was just dreadful. It's clear now that their performance against the Chiefs was fool's gold -- with numbers helped by quick release throws and two missing KC pass rushers. Outside pressure regularly beat Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon, and when they added a sixth linemen, Cameron Fleming got whipped outside, too. Add to that the facts that Brady was their leading rusher with 13 yards and they committed 4 penalties for 30 yards, and it's obvious they sucked.

How was the quarterback? Hard to tell. Every wide-view replay verified what I feared; that the receivers simply weren't winning any one-on-one battles. Even Brady's completions were usually in tight windows and some looked like they would be knocked away before reaching the receivers. And oh, those missed throws to running back James White. He had him breaking open for touchdowns twice on one drive, and overthrew both times.

Brady made some amazing plays, two fourth-down conversions on the final drive, for example. But his two interceptions were just plain bad throws. One interception led to a touchdown drive, and the other killed great field position before the half.

With the exception of Gronkowski, the receivers join the O-line in getting an F for the day. No separation, no blocking on running plays, important drops (I'm looking at you, Danny Amendola), and an overall lack of focus. Gronkowski battled injuries, cramps, and double/triple-teams to grab 8 catches for 144 yards and an almost-tying touchdown. Julian Edelman was invisible in the first half, and I'll never understand how Brandon LaFell went from 74 catches and 7 touchdowns in 2014 to 37 and 0 in 2015. SMH.

The running backs suffered from bad O-line play, too. 14 carries for 31 yards, and Brady had more yards than any running back. They did have 7 catches for 74 yards, and if Brady had hit White on either of the touchdown throws, the entire game might have come out differently.

Linebacker Jamie Collins was emblematic of how the defense played all day. He got beaten on both of the Broncos touchdown passes in the first half. And in the second half, he had two sacks (for 25 lost yards), five tackles, and two QB hits, as the team held the Broncos to just three second-half points. The Patriots offensive problems allowed Denver to get a lead and play small-ball/clock-management and hold on for the win.

The other linebackers, mostly Dont'a Hightower and Jonathan Freeny helped slow the Broncos running game some (3.3 yards per carry, as opposed to 5.6ypc in their November meeting). And Freeny made a heads-up play, covering a lateral that was eventually ruled a turnover for the Patriots. (It also led to their only touchdown in the first half). But it was surprisingly easy for the Broncos receivers to get open in the short-middle zones. Those throws are the easiest for Peyton Manning at this point, so I expected the Patriots linebackers to cut them off and force outside throws instead.

The defensive line did a great job all day long. Not only did they shut down the run, but they pushed the inside pocket effectively enough to force about 8-10 bad plays by Manning. Alan Branch had a sack and a tackle for a loss, Chandler Jones did a nice job dropping into coverage to force a sack of Manning, and Rob Ninkovich was instrumental in stopping the run.

The only really bad play by the D-line was losing contain on a Manning scramble. He gained a first down, and that changed field position significantly. The next four Patriots drives started at their own 8, 4, 20, and 29 yards lines. That made it pretty tough to come back.

The only real complaint about the secondary is that twice cornerback Malcolm Butler was in position for an interception and he missed both times. Once the pass was completed, the other time it was incomplete. But in a game when the team needed a big play, he had two in his hands and didn't come up with either. He ended up with two knockdowns and seven tackles, but had a chance to be a hero in the game.

Logan Ryan did great work on Demaryius Thomas, holding him to two catches for twelve yards. (Side note: the Broncos should cut Thomas; he never shows up in big games.) And both safety Devin McCourty and third-corner Justin Coleman had key knockdowns early in the game. Safety Patrick Chung did a decent job in run support, although I suspect he was responsible for deep coverage on the Broncos first touchdown.

Special teams did not hold up their end of the bargain. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed his first extra point in a decade, and it forced the team to try for two at the end of the game (and of course, the try failed). He took the blame for the loss, and though it's not all on him, he has to figure out why big-game kicks are more difficult for him. The team also had an "illegal downfield" penalty on one punt and "illegal motion" on another. These are pre-season types of penalties, and there's no reason they should happen in a playoff game.

The punt game itself was very good. Ryan Allen's net average was 43.3, gunner Brandon King made a nice tackle, and they forced Denver into a 15-yard penalty on another punt. Also, Danny Amendola and Edelman combined for a 12-yard average on four punt returns; not bad.

Several coaching decisions left me puzzled. First, the decision to receive the opening kickoff instead of deferring was a head-scratcher. Bill Belichick defers so he can get the ball first in the second half, when the crowd is usually quieter than they are to start the game. In a situation like this, where crowd noise would disrupt his undermanned offensive line, it's strange that they'd decide to take the ball for the first time in recent memory.

Also, they went for it on fourth-down late in the game instead of kicking field goals. The first time would have been a 43-yarder to make it 20-15 with 6:00 to play. The second time would have made it 20-15 (or 20-18) with 2:25 to play, and the Patriots holding all their timeouts. In a game where they ended up 2-15 on third-down conversions (13%), it might have been wiser to kick one of those field goals to set up a touchdown to win it (or kick both to set up a field goal for the win).

So where does that leave us? I'll be getting back to my normal sleep patterns, I guess. The loss sends the team back to the drawing board. It appears both their offensive and defensive coordinators will be back next season, so they'll have to start with player evaluations and decide whether or not to keep their special teams and offensive line coaches.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: In the last five possessions of the game, the Broncos had 3 yards of total offense, the Patriots had 3 red zone possessions.

Non-Brady MVP of the Game: Alan Branch, who disrupted the Denver running attack and notched a sack.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Wait 'til next year won't stop hurting until the Monday after the Super Bowl."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 13-5 & 1-1 :(

Playoff Preview: Patriots at Broncos

So the annual Brady/Manning game got pushed back a few months, and it’s this Sunday. Blame it on Brock Osweiler; the faux heir apparent who was good enough to beat the Pats in November, setting up Denver to host this game.

The Broncos won that game 30-24 in overtime. So the question is: has enough changed between then and now to expect a different outcome?

**Spoiler Alert**, plenty has changed, believe me. Read on to see if the Patriots can reverse the deficit on Sunday and go to their seventh Super Bowl under Bill Belichick.

1. Meet The New QB, Same As The Old QB

Peyton Manning isn’t quite the same old QB, but he is an upgrade over Brock Osweiler at this juncture. Manning has 25 playoff starts, Osweiler none. And for those who think Manning doesn’t have the arm strength to be effective, remember: both he and Brady are the best ever pre-snap.

Even if Peyton can’t throw it more than 20 yards, he can audible to the proper play to give his team a chance to win that play. And he can do that with great effectiveness for 65-80 plays a game. He might not win it with 40-yard bombs, but he’ll be better putting his team in the right position more often than Osweiler would have been.

If Osweiler had been good enough to keep his job, this game would be a Patriots blowout. Belichick is just too good at attacking the weaknesses of young quarterbacks. (Note: the one blip in that pattern is that QBs are 5-4 when their making his second, third, or fourth start -- that is how Osweiler won in November; it was his second start.)

Also consider that Manning overthrew long passes by 2-3 yards in week 17 of the regular season. But he only overthrew long passes by a yard or less in last week's playoff victory. If he gets his accuracy back for this game, it'll make things that much tougher.

2. Patriots Defensive Reinforcement

The one defensive player who couldn’t go for the Patriots in November was linebacker Jamie Collins. Regular readers of this blog know how much he means to the team. He will make it more difficult for the Broncos to complete short passes over the middle, which would force Manning to throw deeper or to the sideline, both of which are a problem for him at this point.

One additional reinforcement, hopefully, is a healthier Dont’a Hightower. He played a little over one-quarter of the November tilt. The Broncos rushed for an average of 2.9 yards per carry with Hightower on the field, and 8.0 ypc without him, so his importance can’t be overstated.

The team did lose Jerod Mayo this week. But he didn’t play very much (or very well) in the first Broncos game. In fact, his replacement that night, Jonathan Freeney, led the team with 12 tackles and had a sack of Osweiler.

3. Patriots Offensive Changes

Missing from the November game: receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. Patriots went 2-13 (15%) on third-down conversions in that game; but in games with Edelman, they were 52% on the season (including 50% last weekend). Also, Amendola wasn’t there to return punts, and rookie Chris Harper fumbled a punt to led to a Denver touchdown.

On the downside, the team lost running back LeGarrette Blount since the November tilt. And they have no running game to speak of at the moment; so it’ll all come down to Brady and the receivers. Which isn’t a bad place to be, especially when Edelman and Rob Gronkowski are on the field.

4. Denver Defensive Line Help

One important Denver player who missed the November game was defensive end/linebacker DeMarcus Ware. He brings his 7.5 sacks to the party, playing opposite Von Miller, who led the team with 11 on the year. In fact, the Broncos led the NFL with 52 sacks. And they’ll have their raucous crowd to disrupt the Patriots still-struggling offensive line.

This might be where the game is won or lost. If the crowd noise disrupts the Pats offensive line enough for the Broncos ends to get pressure on Brady, it could be a long day. It only takes pressure on a few plays to hurry the quarterback and have him risk a turnover or take an inopportune sack.

Denver is a tough place to play, not just because of the altitude, but because their team is designed to take advantage of the crowd noise. It’s similar to when Indianapolis had two defensive ends who could speed-rush with the best of them. Add the noise in the dome and it's nearly impossible for offensive linemen to get a good jump on the play.

5. Blunders/Officiating

In the first game, the Patriots muffed a punt, they missed several tackles behind the line of scrimmage that would have stopped big gains, and they botched clock management at the end of the half and the end of the game.

They were also on the wrong end of several questionable officials calls. Not that I’m blaming the referees for the loss; but it didn’t help.

It’s unlikely all that will go against the Patriots again. But on the road you never know for sure.

6. Quick Hits

A) Denver defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is 1-4 in his last five games against Bill Belichick.

B) Denver is the only playoff team that had a negative turnover ratio in 2015 (-4 on the season).

C) The Patriots finished with a +7 turnover ratio, and they turned the ball over the least in the entire NFL (14 total for the year).

D) Brady and Manning have met in four previous AFC Championship Games. The home team won all four times.

E) Brady is 2-6 career in Denver.

Summary

The Patriots are too thin to sustain any injuries among these players: Tom Brady (obviously), Gronkowski, Edelman, Sebastian Vollmer, Collins, Hightower, Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty, Malcolm Butler, and Logan Ryan.

They have enough depth elsewhere to survive injuries. But if any of those listed players miss significant time on Sunday, the chances of a Patriots win drop significantly.

It’ll all come down to the Patriots stopping the Denver running game and the Broncos getting pressure on Brady. With Collins and Hightower playing, they can accomplish the former. And if Edelman and Gronkowski stay healthy, Brady can deliver the ball quickly enough to neutralize the latter. I think they will be healthy enough, so my guess is...

Patriots 31, Broncos 23.

Enjoy the game!

- Scott

PS. 1-0!

&

13-4!

Dolphins Top Somnolent Patriots, 20-10

The Patriots sleepwalked through a 20-10 loss to the Dolphins. The loss allowed Denver, who won this afternoon, to take the AFC #1 playoff seed. It also built more frustration for Tom Brady, who is now 6-8 in Miami in his career, including three straight losses. Next week is a playoff bye, and we won't know who they play the following week until the games next Sunday.

It appeared the Patriots simply didn't try to win this game. They ran the ball a lot in the first half, looking like they hoped to dominate up-front and protect Brady. The plan looked decent until kicker Stephen Gostkowski pushed a field goal attempt wide-right, keeping the game tied and giving the Dolphins great field position. Miami drove from there to score a touchdown and take a 10-3 halftime lead.

In the second half, the Pats drove right down the field and tied things at 10-all. But after that, they went: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, turned over on downs.

The strange thing is that if they didn't care about winning, why play Brady or the injured players at all? Brady got beaten up pretty good, as usual against Miami. So why take the chance if you really didn't care whether you won?

As for players who did well/poorly, here are five of each.

Good Games:

• Linebacker Jamie Collins had five tackles and two passes defended
• Defensive end Jabaal Sheared got semi-consistent pressure on the QB
• Running back Stephen Jackson made good yards when he could, and had two blitz pickups
• Safety Patrick Chung had some nice run-support plays and totaled 6 tackles 
• Running back James White was the top receiver, 2 catches for 63 yards
• (Note: doesn't that tell you all you need to know about the game?)

Bad Games:

• Running back Brandon Bolden's penalty on a punt return cost the team 32 yards of field position
• The entire offensive line multiple missed assignments and had many sloppy blocks
• Receiver Brandon LaFell couldn't get separation against one-on-one coverage all day
• Cornerback Logan Ryan got burned more than once
• Coaching staff, unless they really were playing to lose

So where does that leave us? Trying to get healthy, I guess. The offensive line is what it is, there are no real reinforcements coming there. So they need Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman back from injury, because with those two and Rob Gronkowski, they can get the quick throws to offset defensive pressure on Brady.

They also need Chung and safety Devin McCourty fully healthy (I don't think McCourty is quite there yet), and they need linebacker Dont'a Hightower back at full speed, too.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Gostkowski led the NFL is scoring for the fourth consecutive year. The last player to do so, Patriots legend Gino Cappelletti from 1963 to 1966.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: No one

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It looked like the entire team missed the flight to Miami."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-4!

PPS. Note: the exact record I predicted at the beginning of the season :D

Patriots Handle Titans, 33-16

The Patriots took care of business yesterday at Gillette Stadium, posting a 33-16 victory over Tennessee. The win set them up for a first-round bye, which they clinched later in the day when Denver lost to Pittsburgh. Their second trip to New York is next week, this time to play the Jets, and with an outside chance to knock them out of the playoffs.

This game wasn't really as close as the final score indicated. The first half score was 24-3, and the Pats coasted from there. The Titans turned it over, they failed on third downs (1 of 8 in the first half), and their only scoring drive before intermission was 4 plays, -5 yards, and a field goal.

The one concern was the offense stagnated without receiver Danny Amendola in the second half. Both Amendola and tight end Rob Gronkowski played, Amendola missed the second half with a knee injury. And the comparison looks pretty ugly.

First half:
4-7 (57%) on third-down conversions
10 carries for 54 yards (5.4 ypc)
14 of 19 (73.6%) passing for 139 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 130.6 rating

Second half:
3-9 (33%) on third down-conversions
16 carries for 39 yards (2.4 ypc)
9 of 16 (56.3%) passing for 126 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 81.7 rating

The drop-off indicates that the Patriots cannot go far in the playoffs if they have only one of their receiving stars. That means they need to have receiver Julian Edelman, Gronkowski, and Amendola healthy for a deep playoff run. They can't depend on just two of them; if one gets injured, the offense grinds to a halt.

The Titans have fallen behind by a total of 51-3 in the first halves of their last two games. And the Patriots defense had plenty to do with it yesterday. The defense scored a touchdown on a Chandler Jones strip-sack and Akiem Hicks pounced on it for a touchdown. Hicks also stuffed a running play and had a sack of his own -- all in the first quarter! And Jones had another sack, his two totaling 28 yards lost.

The rest of the defensive line did a great job stopping the run, especially outside runs. The Titans averaged 94 yards a game before yesterday, but they had just 59 against the Patriots. Jabaal Sheard had a sack and continued to disrupt the offense with quick moves inside and out to break down running plays.

Linebacker Jamie Collins led the team with eight tackles, had a sack, a tackle for a loss, a QB hit, a pass defended, and an interception. And even with all that, he is a step slow on some outside runs and blitzes, so when he returns to full-speed, it'll be a sight to see. Jerod Mayo improved again this week, making six tackles in all. But unfortunately, Dont'a Hightower left the game with a knee injury.

Linebacker is about the same as receiver for the Pats. If they go into the playoffs with just two of those three healthy, they could be in trouble if one gets injured during the playoffs. They really need all of them healthy, because they can't afford to have just one on the field.

The secondary played passably well. Interestingly teams now seem to shy away from throwing at Malcolm Butler, and with good reason. He had an INT, a pass defended, and five tackles yesterday. He also had another interception called back on a penalty on the other side of the field. Logan Ryan struggled in the game, as did newcomer Leonard Johnson.

Safety Patrick Chung had a great game, doing a fine job in run support and mostly shutting down the Titans' best tight end, Delanie Walker. Walker had just two catches, although both went for touchdowns, so it wasn't a total shut down. However, Chung was injured late in the game, and his usual running mate, Devin McCourty missed the game with injury, too. Tavon Wilson did a good job in place of McCourty, but the injuries are starting to pile up at this position.

The offense was very disjointed in the first half, not having much possession time, and benefitting from short fields on all three second-quarter drives. Quarterback Tom Brady was in total control, and didn't face much pressure compared to recent weeks. After three consecutive weeks with double-digit QB hits, the Titans hit Brady just four times, and sacked him twice.

The numbers were ho-hum by Brady's standards, but he made excellent decisions and never put the ball in danger of being picked off. Brady went 23 of 35, 267 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a QB rating got 107.7. Like I said, ho-hum -- just another 105+ QB rating game. Next!

The receivers caught just about everything thrown their way. Brandon LaFell caught four passes for 88 yards, including a ton of yard after the catch. He and Amendola also had excellent blocks on James White's 30-yard touchdown catch-and-run. Excepting Gronkowski, the receivers caught 18 of 23 passes thrown their way.

Gronkowski did his usual damage: five catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. But he was targeted 11 times, so the completion percentage on throws to him wasn't great. This owes mostly to double-coverage he faces a lot, although in those circumstances, Brady should look elsewhere unless Gronkowski is actually open.

Running back Brandon Bolden started out as the workhorse. But halfway through the game, the Pats switched it up by putting in rookie Joseph Iosefa (#47 on your scoresheet). Between them, they had 24 carries for 87 yards; a very respectable total. The team had trouble running in the second half, but it was good to see someone come in for the injured LeGarrette Blount and play well enough to get more starting time.

The offensive line is still a bit messy. Shaq Mason had a great block on the first Patriots offensive play of the game and then a holding penalty on the second play. The Titans didn't blitz much, and they didn't play many up-front games, so it wasn't much of a test from that perspective. We will have a much better idea of where the O-line is after next week. The Jets blitz a ton, and if the Pats line can handle it, they'll be in good shape entering the playoffs.

Special teams continues to have trouble, and that is the second biggest worry heading into the post-season (aside from health). Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a 48-yard field goal, and Danny Amendola fumbled a punt. The new special teams coach needs to get these guys to focus on their job, or he might be looking for another job himself next season.

So where does that leave us? 12-2 and with a guaranteed first-round bye -- that sounds pretty nice for now. The Pats finish with two on the road, and if they can win next week, they'll probably sit a bunch of players for the finale against the Bills (to avoid injury against old friend Rex Ryan).

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Tom Brady has a career passer rating of over 100 against all four AFC South teams:

• 101.0 against Houston
• 108.5 against Jacksonville
• 102.3 against Indianapolis
• 109.4 against Tennessee

(Trivia question: Brady's highest career QB rating against one opponent is 115.7; name the team. Answer below.)

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: James White's seven catches were outlets that helped keep Brady clean, and he turned one of those dump-offs into a scintillating 30-yard touchdown.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The only AFC team that scares me is the Jets, so the Pats should eliminate them from the playoffs next week."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-2

PPS. Trivia Answer: 
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Brady's 115.7 rating is against the Atlanta Falcons. Next highest: 113.4 against Pittsburgh.

Patriots Fall to Broncos 30-24

The Patriots lost in overtime last night to the Denver Broncos, 30-24. The loss leaves them at 10-1, with a measly four-game lead in the division. Unfortunately, it also puts them at risk of losing a first-round bye in the playoffs -- they have just a one-game lead on Denver at this point (since Denver has the tie-breaker).

I should correct my first sentence. The Patriots did not lose in overtime; they lost in regulation -- twice. Two times they had the Broncos beaten and both times they uncharacteristically botched the situation and let Denver back into the game.

The first time was at 21-7 Patriots early in the fourth quarter. The Pats had just held Denver to a three-and-out, but on the punt, the gunner cleanly beat Nate Ebner and rookie receiver Chris Harper did not call for a fair catch. The semi-predictable result, Harper tried to move before the ball got there, fumbled, and 2.5 minutes later is was 21-14.

Before that fumbled punt, the Broncos offense and crowd were completely listless. It looked like the Patriots had them right where they wanted them. But with injuries to the two main punt returners, and an inexperienced wideout filling in, they lost control of the game.

The second time they lost it was on their second-to-last possession of regulation, leading 21-17. With 2:53 left in the game, Tom Brady had just completed a first-down pass to Rob Gronkowski at the Patriots 40 yard line, and Denver had just one timeout.

However, rather than run the clock down to 1:10 and punt it back (if they didn't get the first down), the Patriots threw it three times. Two of those passes fell incomplete, and Gronkowski also fell on one of those plays, adding injury to insult. Well, the two incompletions and lack of a first down set up Denver with 2:31 left, which was plenty of time to score a touchdown to take the lead.

It is rare to see the Patriots self-destruct in this manner. Harper's mistake was more understandable; he's a rookie. But how Bill Belichick and his staff failed to run the ball to wind down the clock -- that is inexcusable. They didn't need to gain a single yard; just run down the clock and see if the newbie at QB could drive 80 yards with no timeouts to win.

No in-depth breakdown this week, folks. The loss obscured the following:

• Great games from cornerback Logan Ryan, running back Brandon Bolden, defensive tackle Alan Branch, defensive lineman Jabaal Sheard.
• Improvement from linebacker Jerod Mayo, tight end Scott Chandler, left tackle Sebastian Vollmer, and linebacker Jonathan Freeny (12 tackles and a sack).
• A few nice plays from defensive end Chandler Jones (including a jump-ball interception), cornerback Malcolm Butler, defensive end Rob Ninkovich, and quarterback Tom Brady.
• And finally, terrible performance containing the Denver running game (32 carries for 179 yards), lousy third-down conversion rate (2 of 13, 15%), and ten Ryan Allen punts, the most by the Patriots in some time (trivia question: when was the last time the Patriots punted 10 or more times in a single game; answer below.)

So where does that leave us? At 10-1, the Pats still have their playoff seeding in their own hands. Win out and they will have the #1 seed in the AFC, and winning out isn't out of the question. Next week Philadelphia comes to town, and they are a real mess right now. The only danger; Chip Kelley has 10 days to prepare; his team played on Thanksgiving day.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Bill Belichick is now 4-5 when facing a quarterback in his second, third, or fourth start in the NFL. It's hard to find situations where he is under .500, but this is surprisingly one of them.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Logan Ryan, even though he got the ticky-tack holding call that allowed the Broncos to take a late lead. Ryan knocked down four passes and made four tackles in the game, and virtually shut out the Broncos' Damarious Thomas, holding him to 1 catch on 13 targets.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The loss isn't fun, but the loss of Gronkowski could seal the deal. The Pats can make the Super Bowl with Amendola, Edelman, and LaFell. But they probably can't win it without Gronk."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-1!

PPS. Trivia Answer: Ryan Allen booted 11 punts in his second game with the Patriots, a 13-10 victory over the Jets on September 12, 2013.

Patriots Outlast Bills for 20-13 Win

The Patriots outlasted the Bills in a 20-13 slugfest in Foxboro. The win earned New England a five-game lead in the division with just six games to go. They also have a two-game lead for the #1 playoff seed. This Sunday it's the Broncos in Denver for a 8:30pm tilt. A victory there could win the division before November comes to a close, but only if the Jets lose, too.

When you're filling out your holiday cards this year, make sure to thank the Pats defense for this win. While the offensive line sleepwalked through the game, the defense put the clamps on in the second half to secure the victory. With the game in the balance, they forced three 3-and-outs, one 4-and-out, and only gave up 32 yards on 9 plays to end the game.

This was significant because in the first half, the Patriots best plays were Bills penalties and dropped passes. They could easily have trailed at the half, but Buffalo mistakes open the door to a 10-3 halftime lead. And when kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a 54-yarder to open the third quarter, the Bills marched right down the field to tie the game.

That is when defensive coordinator Matt Patricia's adjustments took hold, clamping down on the running game and closing the pocket, while pressing the receivers and contesting every ball thrown.

The defensive line did a great job against inside runs. Unfortunately, it took them a half to figure out that the Bills could run to the outside, after they'd been beaten repeatedly, especially to the defensive right. Rob Ninkovich couldn't hold the edge, and without linebacker Jamie Collins to fly to the ball, the Bills got 36 of their 50 rushing yards to Ninkovich's side -- and not a single run that direction went for a loss. (Note: Ninkovich did have 1.5 sacks and a QB hit, so it wasn't all bad.)

In the second half it was a different story. The Pats reemphasized holding the edge, forcing runs to their huge interior linemen and linebackers. Jabaal Sheard had an excellent game, with 5 tackles, a forced fumble, and a QB hit. And the two young guys inside, rookie Malcom Brown (3 tackles) and second-year player Dominique Easley (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks, and 2 QB hits) cleaned up runs and managed a controlled push of the pocket that pressured the quarterback without letting him escape. And Chandler Jones made a huge tackle for a six-yard loss that forced a Bills punt when the game was still tied.

Linebacker Dont'a Hightower recovered nicely from a first half where he was a tick late to most plays. And Jerod Mayo played by far his most snaps this season, ending the game with five tackles (one for a loss). He made some nice plays early on, even knocking down a pass in coverage. And Jonathan Freeney is actually rounding into form well. He's making more plays, and actually had the most tackles of any linebacker (6).

The secondary had two leaders this week: Malcolm Butler against the pass and Logan Ryan was a tackling matching. Butler shut down the Bills best receiver, holding Sammy Watkins to 3 catches for 39 yards and zero touchdowns. Ryan topped the entire defense with nine tackles, and even threw in a pass knockdown. Also, safety Patrick Chung filled in as a third cornerback, which tells you the secondary is much shakier than we thought.

The offensive line had a horrific game. Buffalo used the "amoeba defense," where the front line players don't indicate whether they'll rush the passer or drop into coverage. And it was one free rusher after another that knocked quarterback Tom Brady to the ground play after play. Marcus Cannon not only missed blocks but was responsible for three penalties. Center David Andrews was benched in favor of last year's center, Bryan Stork. And even the return of Sebastian Vollmer couldn't help the Patriots running game, which had just 55 yards through three quarters.

Two of the running backs had a big play or two in the game. James White ran for a touchdown and caught another just before the half. And LeGarrette Blount got enough tough yards in the fourth quarter to help seal the game. But mostly, it was like watching guys in pads run into brick walls -- there just wasn't anywhere to go.

The receivers performed a lot worse with Julian Edelman out, although each contributed at least one big play (sort of like the running backs). Danny Amendola had clutch catches on both touchdown drives, and he caught 9 passes for 117 yards. Rob Gronkowski had a 27-yarder, as did Brandon LaFell. It's going to be tough without Edelman, but time for the newbies to step up.

Finally, quarterback Tom Brady had a rough go of it -- literally. He was clearly confused by some of the defenses, and it didn't help that the O-line let so many free rushers through. I've never seen Brady throw so many balls into the turf because they just weren't in the right play to attack the defense that showed up after the snap.

However, in the end the Patriots won this game with second-half defense and the guts of their quarterback. Brady was hit 10 times and sacked once, but he hung in there for important passes to Amendola, Gronkowski, and White. Brady's pedestrian numbers don't tell the whole story. 20 of 39 for 277 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 INT sounds pretty bad for him. But those numbers look decent when you consider the patchwork O-line and constant pressure.

On special teams, Amendola had two big punt returns, and oddly punter Ryan Allen kicked the ball further into the wind than with it. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a 54-yard field goal, but that's hardly a gimme. Sorry his perfect season is over, but kicking with the wind he probably should have hit even that one.

So where does that leave us? 10-for-10 sounds about as good as it could be. The Pats had more injuries yesterday, but they should get Collins back soon, and the O-line is at least getting healthy. A win this Sunday would give the Pats a four-game lead with five weeks to go in the chase for a playoff bye. So this game is huge. (Note: I'll have more on this later this week at FootballNation, so watch out for that.)

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Bill Belichick's dominance over the Bills seems to be independent of venue. The average score in Foxboro: Patriots 25.7, Bills 15.2. Average score in Orchard Park: Patriots 28.8, Bills 15.4.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who's in-game adjustments put the clamps on the Bills more and more as the game progressed.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Look, division games are tough, but they are close to winning the AFC East again; that's all that matters."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-0!