Pats Top Washington Easily, 33-7

The Patriots pulled away in the second half for an easy victory in Washington, 33-7. Their 5-0 record keeps them atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the 4-1 Bills. Next up are the New York Giants, on a short week, this Thursday night in Foxboro.

Often there isn't much to learn from blowout wins. But there was today.

After the game, Tom Brady was understandably unhappy with the offensive performance in the first half. They came out throwing, and throwing, and throwing. Brady threw a personal high 31 passes in the first half, and the offensive imbalance led to neither a high completion percentage nor a great QB rating. He had one TD but also one INT in the first half.

And suddenly in the second half, it was all run all the time. They fed the ball to Sony Michel, James White, and even special teamer Brandin Bolden. After 7 rushing attempts in the first half, the Pats rushed 20 times after halftime.

What all this tells me is that they themselves don't know their offensive identity yet. They hoped to have Antonio Brown to stretch and challenge defenses, but that didn't work out. Then they wanted to be a run-first team, but their starting center, left guard, and blocking back all got injured.

They lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement, and they've gotten very little production out of the tight end position. And I think they used this game as a test run; to see what they have in the different phases. (Or maybe they tried testing the passing game first, but when the game was only 12-7 at they half they decided to win it.)

Additionally, the offensive line is having trouble protecting Brady. But that doesn't excuse his two horrendous red-zone interceptions the past two weeks. Take the sack or throw it away, TB12, but don't give the ball away when points are on the line.

At the moment they'd be lost without Julian Edelman. He wasn't perfect on Sunday, but his 8 catches (110 yards and 1 TD) five first downs (one by penalty -- a big 40-yarder) were crucial. It's no surprise they won recent Super Bowls without Gronkowski but not without Edelman; he is the indispensable cog in the machine.

Over the next few weeks it'll be interesting to see who steps up at receiver. Everyone knows Edelman, White, and Gordon are there; but who will make the big catches when those guys are covered? If I had to guess, it would be Ryan Izzo or Jacobi Meyers. But at this point, it's still a guess.

On defense, they caused two more turnovers; an interception by Jason McCourty and a fumble recovery by Jamie Collins. But there wasn't much to learn on defense yesterday; we already knew they were great. However, it's starting to look like they could be historically great.

The 2000 Baltimore Ravens hold the record for fewest points allowed in a 16-game season, and the Patriots are ahead of their pace. The Ravens gave up 10.3 points per game; the Patriots so far have given up 6.8 points per game. And after five games, the Ravens had given up 55 points, while the Pats have given up just 34.

Now the Patriots still have to face the Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, and those same Ravens. Those are some potent offenses. However, they also face the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills again, who mustered 10 total points against the defense (the Jets got 14 on defense and special teams). But it's interesting to note where this defense stands historically at the moment.

The kicking game is shaky though. Stephen Gostkowki's replacement, Mike Nugent, pushed an extra point wide, and then hit the upright on another one that ended up going through. The Patriots also eschewed the field goal after the first PAT miss, opting to go for it instead on fourth-and-one. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the kicker. If they haven't sorted this out in a few weeks, expect them to bring in another kicker for competition.

On the other hand, the punting has been excellent, and the team has been validated for letting go of longtime punter Ryan Allen. Jake Bailey is tied for the second-most punts downed inside the 20 yard-line (12 of them). And he hits them out of bounds often, neutralizing the other teams return game.

No commentary on the coaching except this little tidbit: apparently Bill Belichick himself is calling the defensive signals. Apparently he wasn't happy with how that went in the preseason, with Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick sharing that duty. So he took it over.

Where does that leave us? 5-0 is good for now, and the schedule doesn't really start to get tough for another few weeks. Hopefully the hamstring injury to Phillip Dorsett doesn't keep him out for long.

Biggest on-going concern: Lack of targets in the red zone. The Pats really struggled when they got deep in the red zone. They used to have Gronkowski and Edelman, both of whom demanded double-coverage. But without Gronk, the rest of the field isn't quite as open as it used to be.

Non-Brady MVP: Dont'a Hightower. Led the team in tackles (8), sacks (1.5 for 10.5 yards), tackles for a loss (4), QB pressures (2), and even threw in a pass defended. That would probably make him the non-QB MVP in almost any game this year!

Statistical Oddity: The Patriots lead the league in sacks with 24, putting them on a pace for 77 on the season, which would break the NFL record. (Trivia: which team set that record? Answer below.)

The reason it's an oddity -- the Patriots have never led the league in sacks since the stat became official in 1982. Not. One. Damned. Year!

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Nice to get a win, but it'll be weeks before we learn much about the team."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-0!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The 1984 Chicago Bears set the record with 72 sacks in 1984. The next year, they won the Super Bowl, over the upstarts from Foxboro :(

Patriots Corral Cowboys, 30-6

Al (the weather God as Scott refers to me) here filling in for Scott while he's out of town and unable to watch the game until later in the week. Please forgive me if my prose is not as insightful or elegant, my statistics are not as odd or my trivia is not as difficult as you are used to. We will return to our regularly scheduled writer next week, same bat time, same bat channel.

When I was getting ready to watch this game I couldn't envision a way that a Romo-less Dallas team could give New England any sort of trouble. Halfway through the first quarter with the game tied 3-3 a plausible plan was shown to me. Unfortunately for the Dallas Cowboys, they also had to reveal it to Tom Brady and the New England coaching staff who were able to make the necessary adjustments and defuse the situation. Dallas' hard pressure worked early, but it required an unsustainable effort and by half time the Patriots had the game in hand. 

 

It was a rough day physically for quarterback Tom Brady early as he was sacked five times in the first half, and knocked down or hurried many more. (Trivia question: can you name the last time Tom Brady was sacked five or more times in a game? Answer below.) After the fifth sack New England mixed in a heavy dose of running to relieve some of the pressure, which worked somewhat well, but the Dallas pressure off the ends still caused several hurries, knock downs and an additional fumble. The fumble probably should have been called an incomplete pass, but caused no harm as Julian Edleman was able to cover it up for a small gain. Tom's numbers ended 20/27 with two touchdowns and zero picks mostly thanks to quick releases on short passes, some of which came with excellent yards after the catch. If you only looked at Tom's stat line you wouldn't even know how much pressure he was facing. Tom also rushed for a touchdown on a one yard quarterback sneak, much to the joy of fantasy football fans everywhere I'm sure.

On the offensive line, Dallas caused the front five fits all day off the ends and up the middle. Tom was under nearly instant pressure on most passing plays even after the Patriots mixed in a heavier dose of runs. On run blocking the O-line did slightly better but still got beat on a couple run blitzes. All in all I'm sure there will be plenty of adjustments coming next week in practice.

 

On the rushing plays, running back LeGarrette Blount did the majority of the heavy lifting, rushing 13 times for a modest 74 yards. Blount got stopped for minor gains a lot but also ripped off an impressive 34-yard rumble. Dion Lewis tossed in an additional 34 yards on six attempts. A majority of the running plays came late in the second quarter and after with New England all but ignoring the run on their first two possessions. Dion Lewis had a couple of good runs after first contact, but the most spectacular play of the game was his 10-yard catch and touchdown run to finish off the Patriots first drive of the second half. Dion caught a Brady pass in the flat and juked, spun and dove past four separate Dallas defenders to secure the score that pretty much put the game away.

Among the other receivers, your usual suspects shined through again today, but in a less-than-characteristic low volume, high yards manner thanks to some great YAC. Julian Edelman grabbed four passes for 120 yards and a TD. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, was quiet early, but ended the game with four grabs for 66 yards, 33 of which came in a single play where he had some good freight train yards after the catch carrying several Dallas secondary players with him. Dion Lewis had 8 catches for 59 yards and Keshawn Martin and Danny Amendola had a pair of catches each. The Patriots receivers got caught on two offensive pass interference pick plays, a trend that seems to be on the rise and worth keeping an eye on.
 

On defense, New England loaded the box against the run on first and second down playing man coverage on the receivers. This effectively shut down the Dallas running game and put them in to many third and medium to long situations. In those the secondary played a heavy dose of man coverage with safeties over the top. Devin McCourty was seemingly everywhere logging seven tackles. Dont'a Hightower notched four tackles and a sack, but was knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a rib injury and didn't return to play the rest of the game. The defensive eye-opener for me was Jabaal Sheard who only had two tackles, but also added in two sacks in the first half. 

 

The defensive line played well backed up by the line backers clogging up the middle and holding Dallas' run-heavy offense to minimal yards. The one unfortunate notable event was left tackle Nate Soldier left the game with an undisclosed injury and did not return to play. Rob Nikovich didn't show up big on the stats sheet, but was his usual QB-tracking, end-sealing self and was responsible for at least two blown Dallas plays that won't show up on the stats sheet.

The secondary played well in man-to-man coverage as well as holding four downs in a row in goal-to-go at the end of the game. Logan Ryan was the stand out today with two tackles and a pick. Malcolm Butler continues to impress as the Patriots 'feature' corner.

Special teams played very well. Punter Ryan Allen actually had to work for his paycheck this week and consistently kept Dallas in very poor field position. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski was 3 for 3 on field goals including a new personal best 57-yarder to end the half and his only kickoff that wasn't a touchback was downed at the 10-yard line. Danny Amendola had a very respectable 13-yard average on his four punt returns. 
 

So where does that leave us? 4-0 and coming off the bye a game ahead of both the Jets and the Bills and light years ahead of the slumping Dolphins. Next week the Patriots play in the 'Revenge Bowl' in the Sunday Night game against the fading Indianapolis Colts. If you're a betting person, take the over on that one!

Statistical Oddity of the Week (Credit to Scott for providing this): The Patriots franchise lost its first seven games to the Cowboys, and won their next five games against them (including Sunday).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:"Dispatching the Romo-less Cowboys was just an appetizer for the Colts revenge game!"

Keep the faith,

- Al, sitting in for Scott

PS. 4-0!

PPS. Trivia answer: The last time Tom Brady was sacked five times in a game was Week 6 in 2013 against the New Orleans Saints.

Patriots Come Back, Then Survive, Winning 34-31 Again

For the second straight week, the Patriots spotted their opponent a double-digit lead and came back strong to win a 34-31 decision. Today it was the downtrodden Texans, and the win puts the Patriots at 9-3, three full games ahead of 6-6 Miami for the division lead with just four games to play. There are too many variables to clinch a division crown next week against the Cleveland Browns (in Foxboro), so their first chance will be the following game against the Dolphins.

After two prime-time games against the iron of their schedule, it was inevitable that the Patriots would have a letdown against the 2-9 Texans. That's one of the reasons I predicted before the season that the Pats would drop this game; and against a full-power Texans team they most certainly would have. But they hung in against these shell-of-their-former-selves Texans and once again their halftime adjustments were just about perfect -- leading to five consecutive scoring drives and a clock-killing possession.

The offensive line was under fire, with the Texans defense mixing in a nice array of blitzes and decent pressure with just their front four. But even in the face of that, the O-line gave up just one sack (six yards), and five QB hits. They also did a great job blocking on screen passes and on the two rushing touchdowns. Nate Solder gave up the one sack, but he was left alone to block two defenders, so it was probably running back Shane Vereen's fault for not picking up the extra man.

As for the running backs, here was the most important statistic: 0 fumbles. Stevan Ridley was a healthy scratch, replaced by LeGarrette Blount (12 carries, 44 yards, 1 touchdown), who looked like a college back with both hands on the ball at all times. Even blocking back James Develin kept both arms on it while taking four punishing hits at the goal line and eventually scoring. Vereen didn't carry the ball quite so carefully, but he ran well (10 for 38), and was instrumental in the passing game (5 catches, 37 yards, 1 touchdown). The team only averaged 3.3 yards a carry, but the lack of fumbles was more important than anything.

Quarterback Tom Brady had a mediocre first half: an interception, two poorly thrown short passes, and one miss on a long one that would have made it a 3-point game at the half. But after halftime he was terrific  -- 18 of 23 (78%), 263 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions, and a 128.8 QB rating. His touch passes and his long passes were much more accurate. And the windows into which he was throwing were tiny all game and got smaller as the game went on, making his second-half performance all the more impressive.

And the receivers were excellent, rounding into form now that they have an almost fully healthy crew. Julian Edelman (9 catches for 101 yards) continues to be the best former college QB playing receiver in recent memory. Seven of those nine catches went for first downs, and the combination of him and Danny Amendola (5 for 54) are a close approximation of Wes Welker. As mentioned, Vereen is vital to the passing game these days.

Two other factors of importance with the receivers:

First, the unstoppable force that is Rob Gronkowski is back. He had 6 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown, and that was against constant double- (and sometimes triple-) teaming. He also throws off blockers like they are annoying gnats, and if he stays healthy, he will be a nightmare matchup for every team in the playoffs.

Secondly, the Patriots now have two straight weeks with at least four receivers heavily involved in the offense (last week it was five, with Kenbrell Thompkins in the mix, too). This is much more diversity than the had the last few years as they worked toward the playoffs, and makes them vastly more difficult to defend. So keep an eye on how many receivers they have over 3 catches each week; that will tell you if Brady is able to spread the ball around, which will make them much more dangerous on offense.

The front seven on defense had a very bad game. On the defensive line, Chandler Jones (4 tackles) and Rob Ninkovich (4 tackles, 2 QB hits) had good days. They didn't have the stats, but held up well against outside runs and got decent push. In fact, they played so well that they moved inside a few times to replace Joe Vellano and Chris Jones, who both appear to be hitting the "rookie wall" at the same time. It's not all their fault, as the team didn't keep enough D-line depth to replace injured starters Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelley.

The linebackers were also complicit in the number of gashing inside runs. Brandon Spikes blitzed inside when the runs went outside, and chose the wrong gap on far too many plays. He ended up with five tackles, but when plays went away from him he looked disinterested, something I never thought I'd see from such an intense player. Perhaps he is injured. And Dont'a Hightower and Spikes ran into the same hole on plays, leaving the running backs to run free, and both of them are liabilities in pass coverage.

Rookie Jamie Collins has seen more playing time recently; he even started this week. And he is already their best pass-coverage linebacker. And Dane Fletcher has gone from special-teams contributor to a one of the better linebackers against pass and run, which is saying a lot given the draft position and talent level of his linebacking mates. It also says a lot about the state of the linebackers; depth and pass-coverage are big problems.

The secondary did a very good job, especially given that #1 corner Aqib Talib is playing injured and #2 corner Alfonzo Dennard was out with his injury. I haven't given rookie Logan Ryan enough praise -- he had another interception today (3rd of the season), 2 passes defended, and 3 tackles. He hasn't been beaten deep that I can remember, and without his play, the injuries would have cost the Patriots the last two games. But instead of the Patriots fighting for a playoff berth at 7-5, they are cruising toward a division crown at 9-3.

Additionally, safety play has been very good of late. Both Steve Gregory and Devin McCourty played deep against Peyton Manning and the Broncos, holding them to 4.1 yards per attempt. This week, Gregory moved up on running plays, and helped stuff them at important junctures of the second half. And McCourty conversely played deep, helping keep things in front of him so the Patriots couldn't lose the game on big plays. Complimentary play, with them doing what they need to do to win each week, and it worked perfectly the last two games.

As for special teams, they had another excellent week. Stephen Gostkowski hit two field goals of 50+ yards in the second half, including the game winner at the end. He missed a 55-yarder into a light wind in the first half, but when the money was on the line he hit the important kicks and booted kickoffs too long to be returned (which was big after the team gave up a 50-yard return in the first half). Punter Ryan Allen had a good average, and allowed only one return for six yards.

The coaching staff once again was outdone in the first half, but made the necessary adjustments to win in the second half. Among those adjustments, more quick passes, some screen passes, and more blitzes on defense. Although Josh McDaniels had his weekly "long pass on a third-and-short" -- but it didn't end up costing the team.

So where does that leave us? 9-3 and sitting in the second playoff spot in the AFC, at the moment. The Patriots incredible run continues, with them now guaranteed a winning record for the 13th straight season. (Trivia question #1: name the team that holds the record of 20 straight winning seasons... answer below.) Time to put this letdown game behind them and focus on the last four games. Another playoff bye is at hand, if they take care of business.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots won the last two games 34-31, the third time under Bill Belichick they won two consecutive games by the exact same score.  (Trivia Question #2, name either of the other times they did so... answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Thank goodness they've got four games to figure out how not to fall behind early."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  9-3!

PPS. Trivia answer #1:
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The Dallas Cowboys had winning seasons every year from 1966 - 1985.

PPPS. Trivia answer #2: In 2007, the Patriots beat the New York Jets and San Diego Chargers 38-14 in weeks 1 & 2, and in 2010, the Patriots beat the Baltimore Ravens and San Diego Chargers 23-20 in weeks 6 & 7.

Patriots Edge Cowboys 20-16 On Late Brady TD

The Dallas Cowboys seem determined not to be a factor in the AFC East race. They blew late leads to both the Patriots and Jets, as if they didn't want anyone mad at them for picking favorites. Perhaps they'll complete the superfecta and throw away games to the Bills and Dolphins in November... after all, it would only be fair at this point.

The Patriots proved they are four points less sucky than the Cowboys, hanging on for a 20-16 victory. The win catapulted 5-1 New England into first place in the AFC East all by their lonesome, as the Buffalo Bills felll to 4-2. The Jets and Dolphins play on Monday Night, with a loss by the Jets being most desirable, since it would put them three full games behind the Patriots in the division. Also, the Patriots lead the entire AFC in winning percentage, and trail only undefeated Green Bay in the NFL.

Yesterday's contest was sloppy, sloppy, sloppy, and that dulled the excitement you'd usually have in a game this close. The Cowboys came out of their bye week with an interception and a fumble in the first quarter. Not to be outdone, the Patriots went into their bye week the same way, with another tipped-ball INT by Tom Brady and a Matthew Slater fumble on a kickoff return (both in the first quarter). All told there were 6 turnovers, 5 sacks, 15 accepted penalties and 5 declined ones, maybe 12-15 dropped passes, and about 100 missed tackles. Looks like both coaches have a lot to work on this week.

The defense remains a puzzle for at least one more week. It is difficult to tell if they are doing better or if the one-dimensional Jets and self-inflicted-wound Cowboys made them look better. Dallas only got 3.2 yards a rush for the game, an excellent number for the defense. But the quick-misdirection runs gave them fits in the second half. The Patriots also held the Cowboys to 33% on third down and in the red zone, and those numbers are encouraging. However, there are still gaping holes in their zone coverage, as evidenced by the 7 passes of 15-yards or more. And when the Patriots blitzed to get more pressure, it had very bad results. But on the other hand, they got another goal-line defensive stop to hold the Cowboys to a field goal in the fourth quarter, and then got a three-and-out when they had to get the ball back for the offense to win the game.

The defensive line provided a bit more pass rush on its own yesterday, led by Andre Carter (2 sacks, 2 QB hits, 5 tackles). 2011 Stalwarts Vince Wilfork (2 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass defended) and Kyle Love continue to do the heavy lifting inside, although Albert Haynesworth played more and better, with a hit on Romo that caused an important incompletion late in the game. And Gerard Warren came off the street to recover a fumble and get a few tackles. With Mike Wright out for the season, they need contributions from both Haynesworth and Warren, as well as Shaun Ellis, who has been hot-and-cold so far.

At linebacker, Gary Guyton starred on the stat sheet, with ten total tackles. However, my eyes tell me that recent whipping boy Brandon Spikes stepped it up, blowing up plays in the backfield and notching eight tackles of his own. Granted, they joined the team in missing their share of tackles. But between the two of them, they held down the medium zones in pass coverage so at least not much got behind them. However, they were also the pair most victimized by the mis-direction runs. No question the team misses Jerod Mayo, who is a tackling machine and brought both smarts and attitude to the field. No timetable yet on his return; but he will almost certainly be back this year.

The secondary looked awful in the medium-to-deep zone, doing the classic tackle-after-the-catch thing. Devin McCourty and Leigh Bodden do not excel in zone coverage, and the team should play more press/man to take advantage of their skills. Patrick Chung was all over the field, making ten tackles in run and pass support, and Kyle Arrington wasn't far behind (nine tackles, and an interception). James Ihedigbo is making a case as the second greatest safety to play for the UMass Minutemen (check's in the mail, right JD?) -- though more seriously he seems to understand the defense pretty well and has improved each game.

Dallas' defensive game plan clearly centered on stopping receivers Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski, and it only sort of worked. Welker had 6 catches for 45 yards and 1 touchdown, Gronkowski caught everything thrown his way -- 7 catches on 7 attempts, for 74 yards. But that left Aaron Hernandez open for 14 targets, of which he caught 8 passes for 68 yards and the game-winning touchdown. However, Hernandez also had a crucial fumble, and should have caught at least two more of those passes. He's still coming back from surgery, and he will improve in the coming weeks.

Quarterback Tom Brady didn't exactly light the world on fire with his 27 of 41 passing for 289 yards, 2 touchdowns and (most telling on the day) two interceptions, the second of which was just a terrible decision on his part. Not great numbers, and there are some disturbing signs around the quarterback: his second interception should have been thrown away instead, he has too many tipped-ball interceptions this season, and he completed passes to only six different receivers on Sunday. He once prided himself on throwing the ball away instead of risking turnovers, and he regularly completed passes to ten (or more) different receivers a week. Brady has the bye week to correct these bad habits, and he needs to do so if the Patriots expect to make the playoffs and make any noise once they are there.

One factor in Brady's mediocre play was the same level of play from the offensive line. They are getting better at run blocking, but they should remember that protecting the quarterback is more important to their long-term prospects than getting four yards a carry on the ground. They seemed confused by some of Dallas' stunts and games up front. And even though Dallas has some excellent defensive linemen, Brady was hit eight times and sacked thrice -- probably too much for his long-term health.

The running game was productive if not as dominating as it was the last two weeks. BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to shoulder the load... shouldering it right into defenders and driving them backwards most of the time, to the tune of 58 yards and a 4.1 yard average. Oh, and if you think Danny Woodhead hasn't been doing much in the running game, you are right. Four weeks ago, he carried 6 times for 21 yards; since then he has just 6 rushes for 21 yards in three games. Although he did have a nice catch-and-run in the passing game this week.

Part of the unevenness of the run could be attributed to excellent play-calling by Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. But part of it was also bad play-calling by Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien (or perhaps Brady in the two-minute offense). Too often the Patriots followed decent gains with losses that turned second-and-short into third-and-long.

Once it was third-and-long, the drive was often over, as Ryan would dial up an effective blitz and end the play early. O'Brien needs to keep an eye on when to call run, pass, or screen pass -- he has done well against most teams, but in the playoffs the defensive play-calling will put him to the test, just as it has the past two years (tests he has failed both times).

The least special special teams play was Matt Slater's fumble in the first quarter. It didn't cost them any points, as the Cowboys kindly fumbled it back five plays later. But Slater, a beast in kickoff coverage, should know that special teams fumbles are especially devastating, as they often come after the other team scores. It was no surprise that Stevan Ridley replaced Slater in kick returns for the rest of the game.

So where does that leave us? At 5-1 and with a bye week, the Patriots have plenty of work to do. They need to distribute the ball more in the passing game, integrate Stevan Ridley in the running game, cure Tom Brady of his interception bug, get the pass rush on track, get Jerod Mayo healthy, and convert secondary to play press coverage instead of zone. Sounds like a busy week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Nine words I never thought I would write -- Kyle Arrington leads the entire league with four interceptions.

Trivia Question: Only one NFL team has scored more points than they've allowed this season and still sports a losing record -- name the team (answer below).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I'll start worrying about winning ugly when the NFL starts giving extra victories for pretty ones."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-1!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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Believe it or not, the 1-4 Minnesota Vikings have scored 5 more points than they've allowed.

Patriots Overwhelm Jets 30-21

In a game dubbed "a battle between hall of fame coaches," the one going the Pro Football Hall of Fame (Bill Belichick) beat the one going to the Blowhard Hall of Fame (Rex Ryan). The Patriots 30-21 win keeps pace with the surprising Buffalo Bills and opens a two-game lead over the Jets in the division. The Cowboys are in town next week, and I hope to be well enough to attend that tilt.

(Note: I was scheduled to be at the game yesterday, but I was a late scratch with a long-lasting flu that left me too weak to properly intimidate the visitors from NY. Fortunately, Al the Foxboro Weather God found a last-minute replacement, who filled in admirably according to all reports, and had a great time to boot! In the Patriots tradition of "Next man up!" -- thank you Steve, for pitching in for the team.)

As for the game, the Drive Chart tells you all you really need to know.  The Jets scored on 3 of 11 possessions, while the Patriots scored on 6 of 11. And the Jets had seven 3-and-out possessions, while the Patriots had just one. Aside from that, there weren't a lot of game-changers: both teams had one big play (73-yard pass by the Pats, 88-yard kick return by the Jets), they combined to lose zero fumbles, and the lone interception (by the Jets) simply kept the score close.

So without the usual game-changers, there wasn't really domination, just a long, slow grind-down of the Jets defense by the Patriots offense.  New England outperformed New York in first downs (26 to 14), third-down efficiency (50% to 27%), yards per pass attempt (7.9 to 5.6), total yards (446 to 255), surprisingly rushing yards (152 to 97), and time of possession (33:55 to 26:05).

The Patriots defense slowed the running game long enough to get the lead, and when the Jets had to make key third-down conversions through the air, one of two things usually happened: either the Jets dropped the ball or the Patriots secondary jumped the short route and forced quarterback Mark Sanchez to throw it away. That is how you get off the field on third-down; though the Patriots can't take all the credit, Jets receivers should take a bow for dropping easy passes that might have extended drives.

The Jets running attack was up-and-down, which is what caused most of their three-and-outs. The largest portion of blame for the big gains lies at the feet of the Patriots linebackers, who were short their best run-stopper (Jerod Mayo) and had multiple breakdowns and missed gaps. The press keeps touting Brandon Spikes for his recent play, but it just doesn't show up on the field. He and Gary Guyton made about 10 of their 15 tackles 7 - 10 yards downfield, and both blitzed into bad spots and missed tackles near the line that could have helped. Oh, and please call the local authorities if you see Jermaine Cunningham, because he is Mr. Invisible out there.

The defensive line did what it could; but mostly they were double-teamed or run away from, so it was the linebackers' responsibility to make tackles. Kyle Love and Vince Wilfork continue to be their most consistent linemen, and they were helped by the return of Albert Haynesworth, who didn't play a lot but was effective when he did. The quarterback pressure still comes from the outside; Mark Anderson got to Sanchez twice, sharing one sack with Rob Ninkovich. Andre Carter hasn't found his pre-season form, but he's better against the run that he showed in the pre-season, which helped against a run-first team like the Jets.

If you listen to the press, you will hear them howl about the secondary again this week. But the fact is the cornerbacks played better in this game. Leigh Bodden actually got in front of a pass and knocked it away, and for the most part they did a great job cutting off routes on third down. Kyle Arrington is still scary in one-on-one coverage, and the safeties have to improve if the Pats expect to beat teams with better quarterbacks. But they are improving; it's just be a matter of how quickly they progress.

For one week, the offense wasn't all about the quarterback -- finally a running back can take a bow: step up to the podium, BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The veteran running back ran left, right, up the middle, out of the shotgun formation, got his longest run on a direct-snap, and totaled 136 yards on 27 carries with 2 touchdowns. The week after I said Stevan Ridley should be starting, BJGE showed some burst, great balance after the initial hit, and lots of power. He and the offensive line wore down the Jets defense, to the point where they couldn't stop the run even when they knew it was coming.

On the Patriots offensive line, Matt Light, Logan Mankins, and tight end Rob Gronkowski got huge push off the line, putting the Jets defense on their heels and forcing more run-blitzes to counter the effective running game. Light and Gronkowski pancaked at least four or five defenders each, and Brian Waters pulled around from right guard to wham-block in the middle.

The pass protection was another matter. Tom Brady was sacked four times and hit five others, with pressure mostly coming from edge blitzes. Several mis-communications let Jets bltizters run free to the quarterback, and that has to be addressed before the rematch in New York. Tom Brady handled it well; his 24 of 33, 321 yards and 1 touchdown seem pedestrian these days, but with the pressure he was under he did well not to have more than the 1 interception (an INT that was completely Aaron Hernandez' fault).

The receiving corps got a boost from the return of Hernandez, who had 5 catches for 56 yards and helped stretch the Jets defense. One other thing that stretched the defense was Wes Welker's 73-yard catch and run past a cheating safety -- Welker ended the day with 5 catches for 124 yards. Deion Branch was the main target on the day, notching 7 grabs for 74 yards and a touchdown. And both Chad Ochocinco and Gronkowski added important third-down catches on drives at the end of the half and the game, respectively.

Special teams were okay but not great. Stephen Gostkowski went 3-3 on field goals, and he and punter Zoltan Mesko mostly kept the Jets pinned back in their own territory. And Tracy White and Matthew Slater seem deadlocked in a fight to be the best special teams tackler. However, the 88-yard kickoff return led directly to a touchdown, and that could have made it a game if they weren't careful. And without regular kick returner Julian Edelman, substitute Ridley needs to down the ball when it's 8 yards in the end zone.

(Note to the NFL, the Jets appear to be running an illegal wedge on their kickoff returns, with three or four players side-by-side.  Might want to check into that.)

The coaches continue to show flexibility and a desire to protect Tom Brady from continuous blitzing. The defensive scheme was great -- slow down the run and then jam short routes on third-down. And the players worked it to near perfection, giving up just two long drives and a bunch of three-and-outs.

So where does that leave us? 4-1 and looking at a game against Rex Ryan's brother, Rob (defensive coordinator of the Cowboys), with the Cowboys coming off a bye week. In fact, as I wrote in the Season Preview, the last time Rob Ryan had an extra week to plan for the Patriots, the result was a stunning loss in Cleveland last year. So don't think this is a gimme. Best hope that Tony Romo is his usual careless self, and that he turns the ball over a few times. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: BenJarvus Green-Ellis now has 427 career touches and zero fumbles.

Bonus Statistical Oddity (courtesy of CBS): Brady's interception was the first home-game red zone interception of his NFL career.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "BenJarvus looked like Corey Dillon out there; all he needs is a better stiff-arm and shorter hair."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  4-1!

Patriots 38, Cowboys 27 (10/14/2007)

Maybe "Big D" stands for "Dominated." The Patriots rolled to a 48-27 win over the best the NFC has to offer, the (formerly undefeated) Cowboys in Dallas. It was New England's first victory in Dallas, and the win vaulted the Pats to an obscene 4.5 game lead in the AFC East (after only 6 games). It also kept them at the front of the group seeking a first-round playoff bye, though that is a long way away.

The way they won was a simple as tic-tac-toe:
(tic) Patriots offense converted 68% on third- and fourth-down, while the Patriots defense held the Cowboys to 36%.
(tac) With the ability to hold the ball, the Pats ran 75 plays to the 'Boys 44 (and held the time-of-possession advantage 38:15 to 21:45).
(toe) With all that in place, the Pats only needed to take care of the ball and play smart, and they did (1 turnover and only 5 penalties to the Cowboys 12).

For the second straight week, Tom Brady wasn't at the top of his game early, missing several long throws to open receivers. But as the game wore on, he used short passes and great play-action fakes to sustain drives. The offense had 49 pass plays and 29 running plays, and it worked just like the imbalance in last year's 31-7 rout of Minnesota (46 passes to 14 rushes). Brady torched the Cowboys with a career-high 5 touchdowns and no interceptions (for a total of 21 TDs and 2 INTs on the year). With Randy Moss double-covered most of the day, the receiving stars were Wes Welker (11 catches for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns, and about 1,000 other great plays) and Donte Stallworth (7 for 136 and 1 spectacular 69-yard touchdown catch-and-run). And Kevin Faulk pitched in with a critical 18-yard catch to convert a 3rd-and-10.

The Pats didn't have much of a running game on Sunday, settling for "just enough to keep the Cowboys defense honest" -- i.e. 2.6 yards a carry. That was largely due to injuries, with Laurence Maroney out for the third week in a row and Sammy Morris missing almost the entire second half with a chest injury. But the running backs did what they had to do; converting several third-downs, and helping in pass protection for a team built to attack through the air. The O-line did an admirable job, with a few mistakes early (and, as always, good adjustments) but good enough protection for most of the game. The Dallas defensive front is much better than most of what they've faced so far this season, and Brady was sacked as many times in the game as he'd been sacked all year (three). And there have been several injuries along the front line, which showed up as some confusion and penalties (2 for 15 yards).

The defense played really well at the beginning and end of the game, but gave up three long scoring drives to end the second quarter and begin the third. Without those drives, the Cowboys offense looked like this for the day: 6 drives, 18 plays, 24 yards, and 3 points. (BTW, that won't get it done when your opponent closes with 5 drives, 37 plays, 254 yards, and 27 points.)

The stars of the day were Ty Warren, Tedy Bruschi, and the combination of Adalius Thomas, Rodney Harrison, and James Sanders. Warren continues to draw double-teams and still make plays, and most teams run away from him. Tedy Bruschi did an effective job clogging the middle, and on a critical Dallas 4th-and-1 attempt, he beat his man at the snap, forcing him to commit a hold that pushed Dallas back to 4th-and-11. Dallas punted, and it was pretty much "game over" for them. And Thomas/Harrison/Sanders pushed tight end Jason Witten around all day, holding (Cowboys QB) Tony Romo's favorite target to three catches. Overall, a good defensive plan to have two strong safeties in the game, and these guys played it to perfection.

On the bad side, both Rosevelt Colvin and Mike Vrabel had a tough time setting the edge against the run, though Colvin did get some pressure on the quarterback. Also, Vrabel blew it on Terrell Owens's touchdown; he looked like he wasn't sure if he should blitz or drop into coverage, and Owens ran right past him. Between them, the duo ended the day with 1 tackle between them, and that tackle was Vrabel's. Additionally, there were a lot of missed tackles. On one Marion Barber run, the Pats defense had five or six chances to tackle him (including three clean shots -- two of which were in his own end zone) and they missed every one of them. There were also a few too many yards after catch, so I'd call the tackling mediocre.

The kick return game worked well, with solid contributions from Welker on punt (and one kickoff) returns and some nifty runs by Ellis Hobbs on kickoff returns. Chris Hanson had only 2 punts, and his 41.5 yard net average was a vast improvement over his 30.7 last week. The kickoff coverage team did give up one 72-yard return; but it was late in the game and resulted in only a field goal. But for the most part, Stephen Gostkowski's kicks were high and deep, and he did make his longest field goal of the year (45 yards). So some things to work on for next week, but overall, a good performance.

Coaching, you ask? Well, I thought the defensive game plan worked well, and with some surer tackling, they would have held the Cowboys below 20 points (even with the fumble return for a touchdown). Also, the offensive line was rattled early on, but they made great in-game adjustments and gave Brady the time to just kill the Cowboys all day long. I'd say it was solid A- work, especially on the road against a very talented Dallas team.

So where does that leave us. How about 6-0 with a 4.5 game lead in the AFC East. Sounds so good, I'll say it again. How about 6-0 with a 4.5 game lead in the AFC East. They will not overlook this Sunday's game in Miami, because the Dolphins might be 0-6, but they always, always give the Patriots trouble. Need proof? Okay, how about the 2004 Patriots (who finished the year 14-2 and won the Super Bowl) losing to the Dolphins (who finished the year at 4-12). That proof enough for you? The Dolphins are a desperate team, but if the Patriots prepare well, they should win this one going away.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: For the first time in recent memory, a Patriots defensive starter did not show up in the official game statistics. Rosevelt Colvin had no tackles, sacks, QB hits, INTs, passes defensed, forced fumbles, or fumble recoveries -- on defense or special teams. Congratulations Rosie!

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I wouldn't get too cocky about going undefeated until the Indy game. Belichick is only 2-5 in Miami since he got here, and one of those wins was in overtime."

- Scott

PS. For those who have been wondering, I did the math and the Patriots can't possibly clinch the division until their tenth game of the season (11/18). Not that I expect it to happen; just that some of you have been asking.

PPS. 6-0!

Patriots 12, Cowboys 0 (11/16/2003)

8-2 with room for improvement... what could be better?

As you no doubt know, the Patriots won 12-0 last night, maintaining their lead in the AFC East and giving the Tuna a well-deserved smack. To paraphrase Bill Belichick (after the Cleveland game), any time you shut out an NFL team, you've really done something. The defense played very well, keeping Dallas off-balance and making them use long drives of short plays and getting the big turnover at crucial times. All of which meant a big goose-egg for the 'Boys and a hard-fought win for the Pats.

The Pats didn't turn the ball over, and despite playing without their two best receivers (Troy Brown and David Patten) they got enough big plays and overcame a rash of penalties and several dropped passes (Daniel Graham had two, Deion Branch had at least one) to score what they needed to win. Tom Brady was efficient, and the Pats did well to score 12 points against the league's #1 defense. Especially with those drive-killer penalties, some of which were questionable calls.

So now that they did what they needed to do to win, where do we go from here? Well, there are three areas where they need to improve if the Pats want to make a serious playoff run... I call them the "Three P's."

1. Penalties. I know some of Sunday's calls were questionable, but this has been brewing for a while. Some of it is rookies not getting respect or commiting penalties when they're beaten (the rookie center, Dan Koppen, is the perfect example). But they simply can't continue to give up 100 yards a week to the yellow-hanky and expect to win. And even though I'm sure Belichick has stressed this with his players, sometimes it takes a loss for a team to get that message. Here's hoping that loss isn't in an important game. Oh wait, they're all important, aren't they.

2. Punting. Ken Walter is indeed a great holder, but his main focus should be punting and he's been up-and-down since the Titans game (10/5). It's frustrating to watch, because you know he can do better -- he got a game ball for his punting in the Cleveland game. But he almost cost us the Denver game, and he's been terrible for two weeks now. I guarantee you Belichick won't put up with this beyond the Houston game, because he can't afford to give up field position against the Colts. So unless Ken is injured and will be better soon, look for a punter in camp to provide a little competition.

3. Play-action passes and fakes. The Pats need to work on this because it looks like Tom Brady is bored with it and isn't selling the play-action fakes anymore. It's a basic tenet of football that you have to run to make a play-action fake work, and the Pats didn't run enough to make Dallas honor the fake. And the more they faked the run, the less interested Brady seemed in actually carrying through the fake -- and the defense didn't react much at all, thus negating the effect of the fake entirely. The interesting thing is that once the Pats did run (pretty well, in fact), Brady did try to sell the fake and they got the defense out of position. But in any event, they've got to run the ball a bit more and Brady needs to get back to his old self and really try to sell the play-action fakes. Once upon a time, Drew Bledsoe was known for his ball-handling skills but now he seems disinterested -- I'd hate to see Brady fall into that same pattern.

All in all, it's not possible to be an unhappy Patriots fan this morning.
At 8-2, two more wins and they're in the playoffs, and they've got a legitimate shot at the first or second seed in the post-season. Ted Washington made an impact in his return, and if they can just get some off their receivers healthy it would go a long way toward possible wins against Indy and their divisional games down the stretch. But for now, it's time to prepare for Houston. Let Indy fall for the "trap" game the next week, when they play us buy have Tennessee the following week.

Your Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I'm glad the Pats won, but if they want to make a serious playoff run, they've got to get better on special teams and cut down on their penalties. Ken Walter looks like crap and their punt return team hasn't done much without Troy Brown. Hey, you know you're in trouble when you get an extra point blocked."

Keep the faith,

- Scott