Patriots Squeeze Past Cardinals 20-17

The Patriots held on for a 20-17 victory over the Arizona Cardinals at Gillette Stadium. The win put them at 5-6, still a full three-games behind the victorious Bills. Next up is a multi-day trip to Los Angeles, to take on the Chargers this weekend and the Rams the following Thursday night.

New England dominated special teams and played excellent situational defense. Most years that would have been enough for a blowout win. But with the sputtering offense, the Pats had to hold on in a game they normally would have dominated. It was a good win, but doesn't really give one a lot of hope for the season.

Special teams had four important plays:

1. Punter Jake Bailey booted a perfect punt that landed at the one yard-line and was downed at the three.
2. Donte Moncrief returned a kickoff 53 yards to setup a short field on the Patriots first touchdown.
3. Gunner Olszewski returned a punt 58 yards to setup the Patriots game-tying field goal in the third quarter. (Note: it should have been a touchdown return, but for a bogus penalty call.)
4. Nick Folk kicked a 50-yard field goal to win the game as time expired.

In addition, gunner Justin Bethel stopped a guy cold on a punt that outkicked its coverage, and Bailey's kickoffs consistently came down at the one-yard line, forcing AZ to return the ball. (Not that I love that strategy, but apparently the Patriots coaches do -- so, well-executed, young man!)

Conversely, Arizona didn't get much out of their special teams. In fact, their kicker missed a potential game-winning field goal with 1:47 left in the game. This phase of the game was a complete mismatch from start to finish.

On defense, the Patriots played mostly five-man fronts to keep AZ quarterback Kyler Murray in the pocket. The plan wasn't without its bad moments, but they bottled up Murray for most of the game, hitting him four times, sacking him twice, and allowing him just 31 yards on the ground.

The team gave up yards, especially on intermediate passes against the linebackers. But as has been the case most of the year, they played their best when their opponents moved inside the 20 yard line. Their goal-line stand to end the half was one of the most impressive defensive sequences I've seen all year.

Lineman Adam Butler had a great game: 5 tackles, 1 sack (9 yards), 3 QB hits, and a pass deflected at the line. And the linebackers actually did their job, at least against the run. Ja'Whaun Bentley led the team with 13 tackles, and his running make Terez Hall had seven of his own.

The problem in this game, and for most of the year, is that the Patriots offense simply can't put together sustained drives. On Sunday, their scoring drives covered 41, 35, 31, and 18 total yards. Without a short field, they couldn't string first downs together to maintain possession and make progress down the field.  They had two eight-play drives against Arizona: one for 20 yards and one for 35 yards. That doesn't cut it in the NFL.

Quarterback Cam Newton completed just nine passes, was sacked three times, and threw two interceptions. His QB rating of 23.3 would usually earn one a trip to the bench. But apparently the Patriots believe even less in Jarrett Stidham and/or Brian Hoyer, otherwise Cam would be riding the pine already.

Newton did run the ball more effectively: 9 rushes for 46 yards (5.1 ypc). But overall the running game was mostly contained, notching just 110 total yards, including Newton's total. They benched their left tackle in favor of a guy off the scrap heap, and Newton wasn't exactly protected like the Crown Jewels either.

The receivers? Gimme a break! The only two receivers who caught anything were Jakobi Meyers (5 catches for 52 yards) and Damiere Byrd (3 for 33). N'Keal Harry looks like as big a bust as any first-round pick Belichick has made. And maybe it's time to play the young tight ends; Ryan Izzo certainly isn't giving you anything.

The only big coaching whiff is offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' inability to design an offense that works. IMO he has to commit to the run and stick with it. Once teams cheat up to stop the run, call play-action passes and hit Meyers or Byrd on mid-level outs or crosses.

TB12 isn't walking through that door, and neither is Gronk or Randy Moss. McDaniels has to find a way to put together sustained drives or the team is going absolutely nowhere.

One other coaching quibble; can we please clean up the pre-snap and mental-error penalties. They had a false-start in quiet stadium conditions, too many men on the field on defense, and defensive penalties gave the Cardinals first-downs on two third-downs and a fourth-down.

Where does that leave us? 5-6 and headed in the right direction, at least for this week. The twin-LA games could go either way, but if the Pats expect to make the post-season, they better shoot for 2-0 on the west coast.

Biggest on-going issue: Lack of consistency on offense. You don't have to look that far back to see how it's done; they had touchdown drives of 82- and 85-yards against Houston last week and three touchdown drives of 75-yards against Baltimore the week before.

Non-QB MVP: Adam Butler, with the aforementioned stat line.

Statistical oddity: Matt Cassel is the last New England quarterback to play a full game and win with fewer yards than Newton's 84 yards against the Cardinals. Naturally Cassel beat the Buffalo Bills (final score was 13-0).

BTW, Brady did it once in his career; against the Dolphins in 2004.

Water-cooler wisdom: "I guess this is why other fans hated the Brady-led Patriots so much, their offenses probably looked like ours does now."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS: 5-6!

Pats Win SB LIII, 13-3!

"Well, well, well... what abouuuut dat?" (My friend, Leo Pasetti, 1982.)

So the team that didn't train enough in the off-season, that went a "pathetic" 3-5 on the road, that "wasted" a first-round pick on a running back, that didn't get enough in the Garoppollo trade, that "blew their chance" at a playoff Bye with a loss in Miami, and that couldn't possibly beat the Chiefs in Kansas City -- THAT team just won the Super Bowl!

The Patriots capped an improbable playoff run with a 13-3 win that was actually a lot closer than the score indicated. They did it with a great defensive game plan, outstanding special teams play, and a grinding, time-of-possession offense that did just enough to outscore the high-flying Rams.

In a game that paired the #2 and #4 scoring offenses, the biggest stars were the defensive coordinators.

Rams' DC Wade Phillips devised great disguise schemes that confused Patriots QB Tom Brady. They got an interception when Brady mistakenly thought it was man coverage. And time after time the Patriots drove into Rams territory, only to be thwarted before getting into scoring position.

And in his Patriots' swan song, DC Brian Flores crafted a plan to attack the Rams offense up the field, cutting off the misdirection lanes. He added timely blitzes and games that kept Rams QB Jared Goff off balance and out of sorts. And all season he employed far more stunts, games, and exotic defenses, sometimes switching between them five or six times within the same drive.

Flores is headed to Miami tomorrow, to be introduced as the head coach of the Dolphins. And I'll predict right here that he will be the next head coach to win the AFC East. Might not be for a few years, with Belichick around. But he is that good, and he will be sorely missed, no matter whom they bring in to coach the defense next year.

The offensive star was Julian Edelman, the Super Bowl LIII MVP, who kept the chains moving over and over with 10 catches for 141 yards. Rob Gronkowski had a few clutch catches on the lone touchdown drive of the game, but aside from that, the receivers were mostly effective blocking for the run game.

Two running backs were key, led by Sony Michel's 94 yards on 18 carries (5.2 ypc) and that one touchdown. And surprisingly, Rex Burkhead added 43 yards, averaging 6.1 ypc himself. And it wouldn't be right not to mention one back with zero carries -- James Develin didn't touch the ball but his blocking was key in this entire playoff run.

Brady was spot on when he deciphered the defense properly, but it was strange to see all the misfires when he didn't read things properly. He wasn't pressured as much as expected by the Rams D-line, but he did take more hits and was sacked more than in the prior two playoff games combined.

On defense, the line and linebackers simply ran up the field to get to the QB or the RB, whomever had the ball. There weren't any standouts, but the scheme put the front seven near Goff time after time, and it bottled up the running game, too.

But the star was the secondary, which blanketed the receivers on 95% of the plays. Stephon Gilmore earned his rep as the highest rated corner in the NFL. He shut down wideout Brandin Cooks, knocking away three passes, had a forced fumble and an interception.

Additionally, oft-maligned Jason McCourty ran from the other side of the field to knock away a sure touchdown when Cooks got free in the end zone. And when safety Patrick Chung went down with a broken arm, Duron Harmon stepped in, knocking down another potential touchdown and blitzing to force a bad throw on the Gilmore INT.

As for special teams, they played great despite the missed field goal by Gostkowski. Punter Ryan Allen was a legit candidate for MVP, as was gunner Matthew Slater. Allen booted three punts that were downed inside the 10 yard-line, all three by Slater. Giving the Rams the long field went a long way to keeping them off the scoreboard.

I already went over the coaching job on defense. And honestly, the offensive plan wasn't great, entering the game or adjustment-wise. Good enough in the end, but without that defensive game plan, the Pats wouldn't even have been in the game.

Where does that leave us? SUPER BOWL CHAMPS of course! Leave the off-season questions for another day, just enjoy this for the next week, and don't sweat the small stuff :D

Non-Brady MVP: Allen. I know Julian got the MVP award, but if Allen doesn't have one of his best games of the year, it's likely a loss.

Statistical Oddity: The Patriots have faced the Rams in two Super Bowls, and in those games, the Pats allowed 69% fewer points than the Rams averaged during the regular year:

• 2001: 31.4ppg in the regular season, 17 points in the Super Bowl
• 2018: 32.9ppg in the regular season, 3 points in the Super Bowl

Water-cooler Wisdom: "We're Still Here!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 14-5 & 3-0!

Patriots Cruise to 26-10 Win Over Rams

The Patriots took apart the Rams yesterday, beating them 26-10, though it wasn't really that close. The Pats 10-2 record is good enough to lead the AFC and gives them a three-game lead in the division over the 7-5 Dolphins. The Ravens come to town next Monday for a battle of division leaders in Foxaboro.

The Rams offense is pretty bad, and they compounded their problems with key dropped passes and a ton of penalties. And that also meant giving the ball back to the Patriots offense, which was efficient and deadly, even without tight end Rob Gronkowski (out for the year).

Honestly the Rams put up so little fight, there wasn't as much to analyze or learn from this game. But here are a few things to know.

The Patriots ground game remains solid, even without #87 blocking on the line. Running backs LeGarrette Blount (18 carries for 88 yards), Dion Lewis (5 for 27), and James White (3 for 17) got extra yards by using outside seal blocks by tight ends and receivers. Their 133 yards dwarfed the Rams' 36, and they seemed to be able to run at will.

The offensive line obviously had a great game, blocking for the run and keeping the quarterback pretty clean. Brady was hit four times but never sacked. One concerning statistic is Brady's 5.8 yards per attempt, which is the second-worst of the season, after last week versus the Jets. Obviously it hurts to lose the Gronkowski deep threat.

However, Tom was plenty good enough to earn the 201st victory of his stellar career.  It's quite an achievement; one that would have been unimaginable 20 years ago. In fact, Belichick and Brady have been so good, the Patriots have more wins than any other original AFC franchise. Let *that* sink in for a moment!

As for yesterday, the receivers were outstanding. Julian Edelman always came through on third-down (8 catches for 101 yards), and Malcolm Mitchell was a revelation: 8 catches for 82 yards, including outs, slants, and back-shoulder catches. The Pats replaced Gronk by having seven receivers make at least four catches -- and they are always more dangerous when they spread the ball around.

The defensive coordinator finally called some exotic blitzes, sending linebackers, safeties, and cornerbacks at rookie QB Jared Goff And the Patriots players showed they could make that work. The results were impressive: 1 of 12 on third-down conversions, 162 total yards, 3.5 yards per pass attempt, 4 sacks (35 yards), and two interceptions.

There is some interesting stuff going on at linebacker. The Patriots appeared to play DE Jabaal Sheard at 'backer a few times, to great effect. He knocked away three passes and somehow was more effective when he rushed the passer. This also allowed Rob Ninkovich to play more at DE, and he delivered, with a sack, a tackle for a loss, two QB hits, and multiple QB pressures.

The team still hasn't settled on a rotation at linebacker, but it appears Shea McClellin (six tackles and a sack) and Kyle Van Noy (interception) will work with Dont'a Hightower for the time being. Early fave Elandon Roberts seems to have fallen out of favor.

The secondary had a great game. Logan Ryan blitzed twice, getting a sack and a QB hit. Malcolm Butler knocked down three passes and had an athletic interception. And safety Devin McCourty knocked down two passes.

Even kicker Stephen Gostkowski shook off his recent woes and put four field goals right down the middle, along with two extra points.

Quick Hits:

• Martellus Bennett limped around most of the day. Given that the game was in hand by the half, and he's their last tight end, he probably should have sat after intermission.
• Great overall play led to the Patriots dominating time of possession: 37:57 to 22:03.
• Cyrus Jones had another fumble on special teams; you might have seen the last of him in the kicking game for a while.
• The Patriots more than doubled-up the Rams in first downs (4 to 1), total yards (402 to 162), and sacks (4 to 0). But in fairness, the Rams doubled-up the Patriots in one area -- penalties committed (8 to 4).

So where does that leave us? The Pats cruised in this one; next Monday against the Ravens will be a better test. Their 10-2 record gives them a three-game lead in the division with four games to play, so it appears they'll be at least one playoff game in Foxboro this year.

Non-Brady MVP of the game: Malcolm Mitchell snags this award for the first time in his young career. Very impressed with his grasp of the offense and his precise route-running.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: To underscore how dominant the Patriots were, their defense had to make just 40 tackles. The Rams made 72.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: Aggregate score of last three times these two head coaches faced each other: Belichick 130, Fisher 17.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Now that the warmup is over, it's on the the real thing next Monday!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-2!

Patriots Defense Steps Up In 22-17 Win Over Jets

The Patriots defense stepped up several times in a tense 22-17 win over the Jets in New Jersey yesterday. The victory kept the 9-2 Patriots two games ahead of Miami in the AFC East and helped them stay with the 9-2 Raiders for playoff positioning. Next week the LA Rams come to Foxboro.

The defense should take a bow for this win. They caused two turnovers, made the Jets attempt a long field goal (which was blocked), and forced punts on four other possessions. They opened the game in a 3-3-5 alignment and mixed coverages while holding the Jets to 2.8 yards per rush (they average 4.3ypc), even with extra DBs on the field.

Cornerback Malcolm Butler knocked down two passes and had the aforementioned forced fumble (which he recovered). The fumble killed the Jets momentum and the Pats scored their first touchdown on that drive. Logan Ryan tied for the team lead with 7 tackles and he played decent coverage when matched up with the Jets Brandon Marshall. Eric Rowe made five tackles and even had a pass defensed.

The linebackers looked better with Dont'a Hightower not rushing the passer every down and Kyle Van Noy promoted to starter. There were still some holes in the short zones, but receivers were tackled faster this week. Elandon Roberts even made a tackle for a loss this week. And although all the linebackers combined had just ten tackles, that was mostly testament of the excellent play of the...

The defensive line didn't get great pressure on the QB, but they did everything else well. Malcolm Brown had 7 tackles, Alan Branch had 6, Trey Flowers had 4, Jabaal Sheard had 3, Vincent Valentine had 1, and Chris Long has 1 (a big one). Trust me, 22 tackles is a huge number from the defensive line in a Bill Belichick defense.

Long's lone tackle was a strip-sack that effectively ended the game when Flowers recovered. And Branch and Brown plugged gaps in the middle that gave the Jets running backs little room. Sheard looked good in his return, although no one on that line seems to understand how to hold the edge against the run.

The offense went as quarterback Tom Brady went, and it wasn't always perfect. Brady's right knee injury appeared to cause some accuracy issues, which is to be expected when the QB can't push off the normal way. He still completed 60% of his passes but his 89.2 QB rating was his lowest this season. Still, he threw two touchdowns to Malcolm Mitchell, so it wasn't all bad.

Speaking of Mitchell, his two TDs were both excellent catches, and he nearly had a third (just off his fingertips in the end zone). He has Brady's trust, and the coaching staff loves his blocking and route-running, so he could be in for a long ride with the team. As for the rest of the receivers, Chris Hogan was the long man (17.5 yards per catch), and Julian Edelman was back to being Mr. Reliable (8 catches for 83 yards).

Tight end Rob Gronkowski had no catches and left the game early with a back injury. Then Martellus Bennet injured his ankle, so the team had to use tackle Cameron Fleming at tight end for a while. The health of Gronk and Bennett is becoming a real concern as the team heads toward what will hopefully be a playoff run.

The other receivers were the running backs: James White caught four passes for 22 yards, while Dion Lewis had four of his own for 34 yards. White became much more reliable in Lewis' absence, so having both at the same time is quite the 1-2 pass-catching punch from the RB position.

Lewis also ran for 24 yards, but as usual the bulk of the running was done by LeGarrette Blount (67 yards). The Pats didn't stick with the run as long as they did against San Francisco, but it was effective when they ran (4.3 ypc in the game).

The offensive line allowed too many big hits on Brady, even though he wasn't sacked in the game. They were decent in run-blocking, and the pass pressure subsided when the offensive rhythm allowed quick enough passes. But they still have a lot of room for improvement, and it's up to coach Dante Scarnecchia to get that done.

As for special teams, I'll start with the good and go to the bad. Punter Ryan Allen did a great job pinning the Jets back multiple times. And Alan Branch powered through the center to block a field goal attempt late in the second quarter. However, kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed another makable field goals (39 yards), and it appeared the coaches went for it on fourth-down at least once because they were afraid Gostkowski might miss another.

He officially has the yips, and it's probably time to bring in another kicker, just for a tryout to see if you can light a fire under Gostkowski's ass. If the Pats make the playoffs, they can't be guessing whether their kicker will shank a 39-yarder. They just can't.

So where does that leave us? 9-2 and still sixth in points allowed on the season; not half bad. They have to get the kicking game shored up, and the O-line is a time bomb waiting to happen if they can't improve pass protection. Next week it's the Rams, and rookie Jared Goff could fare better than you think, if history is any indication.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: has to be Mitchell.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots have only four total possessions in the third quarters of the last three games combined.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Division games can be tough, but this one shouldn't have been *that* tough."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-2!