Patriots Dominated By 49ers, Fall 33-6

The Patriots fell flat on their face for the second time in two weeks, dropping a stinkbomb to the 49ers 33-6. The loss dropped the Pats to 2-4, a full 2.5 games behind the 5-2 Bills in the AFC East. Next up is a trip to Buffalo on Sunday at 1:00 to try to stay in the race for the division.

There isn't much to say at this point. It feels more and more like the pre-Belichick days around here. In fact, it's starting to seem like the pre-Parcells days -- and that ain't good.

Biggest problems in Sunday's game:

1. Cam Newton is too loose with the ball. Three INTs, all three of them on him, IMO.
2. Terrible situational football; giving up big plays on 3rd-and-1 over and over; unacceptable.
3. They have insufficient talent at linebacker. Losing their top four LBs in the off-season might well have destroyed their 2020 season. Ja'Whaun Bentley was awful unless he rushed the passer -- couldn't cover the pass and struggled against the run.
4. Their secondary isn't playing up to its potential, not even close. I have more faith that they'd stuff a run on 3rd-and-3 than stop a pass on 3rd-and-10.
5. The offensive game planning was poor to start the game and didn't adjust quickly enough (waiting until the half to come up with something that worked).
6. For some reason they continue to return kickoffs when they should just kneel and take the ball at the 25 yard line. Gunner Olszewski fumbled one that could have ended the game before the second half even got started.

The few bright spots:

1. Nick Folk went 2-for-2 on field goals.
2. Damien Harris ran 10 times for 58 yards and was good on blitz pickup.

The Pats are in big trouble here. Newton has made it clear this is a one-year deal, and he'll be looking to cash in with a big free agent deal. If the Patriots keep losing, it's pretty certain that deal will be elsewhere.

They should do two things: start Jarrett Stidham at quarterback and consider trading valuable players before the November 3 trading deadline.

Belichick and company need to find out if Stidham is a potential answer for 2021 and beyond. Newton won't be back either way, so if it isn't Stidham, they have to start planning for the future.

As for trading players, it's fine if they want to wait until after Sunday's game to know for sure if this is a lost season. If they beat Buffalo, they will be just 1.5 games back, with a game against the same Bills at home late in the year.

However, if the Patriots lose to the Bills, the Pats need to be sellers at the trade deadline. Ship out anyone who can't help you next year -- unless they think the rebuild will take longer, in which case they could trade players who won't be helpful in 2022. Depends on where the braintrust thinks the team will be by then.

Where does this leave us? For this season, Sunday's game at Buffalo is make or break. Win and maybe the season will turn around. Lose and it's over. So if you want to watch meaningful local football, Sunday might be your last chance.

Biggest ongoing issue: Puh-lease, it's so many things.

Non-QB MVP: Nope, same answer as below.

Statistical oddity: The last two seasons in which the Patriots played only three games in October, they went winless each time - that includes 2020. (Trivia question: can you name the previous season? Answer below.)

Bonus oddity: The 27-point loss is the Patriots worst home loss in Gillette Stadium history.

Water-cooler wisdom: "Uggggh..."

Keep the faith, if you have any faith left,

- Scott

PS. 2-4!

PPS. Trivia Answer:

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The Patriots went o-fer October in 2002.

Patriots Fall to Broncos 18-12

The depleted Patriots lost to the depleted Broncos, 18-12, in a game that wasn't as close as the final score. The loss drops the Pats to 2-3, in third place in the AFC East behind the 4-1 Bills and 3-3 Dolphins. Next week the 49ers cross the country to play in Foxboro at 4:25.

Once again this team reminded me of the pre-Belichick Pats. Too many mental errors, missed opportunities, chunk plays given up, and turnovers to win much in the NFL.

The offensive line was flat-out horrible. Gave up four sacks, lots more pressures, eight QB hits, didn't block well on screen passes, were bad in the running game, and didn't pick up blitzes particularly well.

Continuity and time spent practicing together are keys to offensive line play. Well, the Patriots lost longtime O-line coach Dante Scarnecchia in the off-season, have started three different centers, and due to injuries/COVID not one single player has started every game at the same position this season. (And a reminder; the season is only FIVE games old!)

With a makeshift offensive line, QB Cam Newton cannot wait 4+ seconds to get rid of the ball. The four sacks weren't all on the O-line. And he tossed two INTs, had a fumble, and had at least two passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage.

Newton's running plays are excellent, and he led the team with 76 yards. But they won't get far if all they can do is run -- they need explosive plays down the field, at least some of the time.

The running backs couldn't run, totaling 41 yards on 16 carries (2.6 ypc). James White had eight catches for 65 yards, but he was poor in blitz pickup. Damien Harris showed good burst early, but for some reason the Pats appeared to want to give touches to all the backs -- which backfired when Rex Burkhead and James White got stuffed more than once.

The receivers continually fail tooooo -- stop me if you've heard this -- to get separation against man-coverage. I know, sounds like last year, right? Only Damiere Byrd is quick enough to get free, but it's his first year here and he doesn't know the offense all that well.

The tight ends? Ryan Izzo had three catches for minimal yards and an absolute killer lost fumble.

The defense was just really weird. They gave up huge plays at really inopportune times. Allowing a 35-yard completion on third-and-21 was disheartening and ridiculous. Especially for a team with this much talent in the secondary.

However, the defense also stiffened near their own goal line, allowing six field goals and no touchdowns. (And that includes a questionable penalty that gave the Broncos a first-and-goal at the four yard line. Denver lost one yard on the next three plays and then kicked a short field goal.)

Linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley had his best game this year (12 tackles, 2 QB hits, and got in on a sack). But he is still inconsistent -- missing some assignments and getting knocked off his feet too often. In fact, their best linebacker might be Adrian Phillips... except he plays safety (he plays near the line like a LB most of the time).

Corners Jonathan Jones (3) and J.C. Jackson (2) knocked away five passes total and each had an interception -- on back-to-back Denver plays. But somehow they just couldn't make a key play early in the game that could turn the tide of a Broncos' offense that gained yards and ate the clock all game long.

The coaching needs to be more cognizant of their players limitations.

On defense, they continue to have Bentley in pass coverage when he can't do it. On pass plays he should rush the quarterback and they backfill the coverage with a safety.

And on offense, they can't call for deep passes when their O-line has that many replacements. Not that a few good targets wouldn't help more -- but the coaches have to put them in position to succeed, not to fail.

The one coaching decision that did work out was odd -- they called two gadget plays and both worked really well. They might note that, because all the gadget plays are ones the team practiced multiple times a week for years. So if they don't have as much practice time during the week, maybe those should use more of those plays.

Where does that leave us? The team is struggling. Lots of positive COVID tests, multiple players in or out on a daily or weekly basis, the facilities closing for days at a time to clean things up. It's a tough thing to get through, but somehow they have to get wins in games like this where the changes were all there for them.

Biggest on-going issue: COVID. Is the game on or off, which players are in or out on a weekly basis, and why are they having continual outbreaks when other teams are not. The uncertainty erodes their effectiveness.

Non-QB MVP: Punter Jake Bailey, who had three kicks for a 48.3 average, no returns, and two downed inside the 20 yard line. He also kicked off, as usual.

Statistical oddity: This is the first time the Patriots had a losing record in October since 2001. Once every 19 years pretty much makes this an oddity.

Water-cooler wisdom: "If you wanted the NFL to play, this is a good reminder to be careful what you wish for."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-3!

Patriots Meltdown in KC, Lose 26-10

This is what "Patriots Football" meant before Bill Belichick arrived. The Patriots missed multiple opportunities against the Chiefs and came away 26-10 losers in a game that should have been much closer and probably could have been a win. The loss put them two full games back in the AFC East, the first time that's happened since week 7 of 2002. (Trivia question: name the team that led the division that week; answer below.) Next week the hapless Broncos come to town to face the suddenly hapless Patriots.

This has to be the most frustrating Patriots game since the loss to Philly in the Super Bowl. You remember, when Malcolm Butler stood on the sideline, only occasionally grabbing a fire extinguisher to put out yet another burned Patriots defensive back.

New England had multiple golden opportunities to stop KC, score more points, or turn momentum in their favor. They missed at least six such opportunities -- here they are.

Three missed opportunities on defense:

1. Devin McCourty dropped an easy INT on the first drive of the game. That would have likely disheartened the Chiefs a bit, but at the very least would have taken three KC points off the board.

2. Late in the game, J.C. Jackson missed an equally easy INT, a play that would have given the Patriots the ball, trailing by three points with plenty of time to score. After the mistake, the Chiefs scored a TD and made the game much tougher to win.

3. Earlier in the game, Chase Winovich strip-sacked Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, and the ball popped right into LB Shilique Calhoun's hands. But the referee's incorrectly ruled Mahomes down because he was "in the grasp" -- a ruling that was seen as incorrect by the CBS broadcast refereeing expert.

(Note: the play was not reviewable because "in the grasp" is a judgment call by the official and thus not subject to review.)

Three missed opportunities on offense:

1. As the first half drew to a close, the Patriots had the ball in easy field goal position, with the clock running and no timeouts. QB Brian Hoyer dropped back for one last pass attempt, but instead of throwing the ball away (to stop the clock), he took a sack -- apparently thinking he had one more timeout. This boneheaded play cost the Patriots three easy points.

2. Early in the second half, the Patriots again in easy field goal position, Hoyer stepped up in the pocket to avoid a sack and then somehow forgot about the guy who just rushed past him -- as he let the guy get back into the play for a strip-sack. KC recovered the fumble and the Patriots missed out on three more points.

3. Jarrett Stidham replaced Hoyer, and his quick-out went right through Julian Edelman's hands and was picked by KC and returned for a touchdown.

By my count, without those mistakes, the Patriots could have outscored the Chiefs 22-19. No way to know how the game would have turned had the Patriots made a few of those plays. But without them, it was only going to end badly.

Just for fun, here are three pieces of good news from the game:

1. We are probably done with the Brian Hoyer "era" for now. He overthrew almost every pass in the first half, had the two big situational gaffes, and can't do jack with his legs to help the team. For now it'll be Stidham, who threw a crisper ball and is at least a threat to run.

2. The running game is still very good: 185 yards and 5.3 ypc.

3. The defense continues to play excellent situational football. They are taking the ball away like they did last year. And their third-down play has been outstanding.

Note: the defense might be the most interesting part of the team, even with the improved rushing attack and Cam Newton at the helm. They seem to be calling the game differently; playing zone between the 20s and man-to-man closer to either goal line.

It's almost as if Belichick concedes teams will get yards between the 20s but that he will either turn them over or make them kick field goals when they get close to the end zone. It worked to perfection for almost three quarters last night. And without all the mistakes, the Pats could have had a large lead by that point.

Where does that leave us? In unfamiliar territory: 2-2 and looking up a the Bills. With Denver in town next week, a bye after that, and the injury-plagued 49ers after that, they have time to right the ship. Then it's off to Buffalo for a showdown with the Bills.

Biggest concern: The health and recovery of Cam Newton. With him the Pats are a threat to go deep into the playoffs. Without him, 10-6 is the ceiling, and that might not even get them to the post-season.

Non-QB MVP: Damien Harris led the team with 100 yards and ripped off a 41-yarder in a drive that led to their only touchdown.

Statistical oddity: In four games against the Patriots, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes averaged just 8.75 points in the first halves but 21.25 points in the second halves.

Water-cooler wisdom: "Steve Belichick is the outside linebackers coach? But the Patriots don't *use* any outside linebackers!'

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-2!

PS. Trivia answer: the Miami Dolphins led the AFC East with a 7-3 record in week 7 of the 2002 season. The Patriots were two games behind at 5-5 -- and they ended up missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker to the Jets.

Patriots Cruise to 30-17 Win Over 49ers

As they often do, the Patriots played down to their competition for a half and then turned up the intensity to pull away for a 30-17 victory in Santa Clara over the 49ers.  The win temporarily gives the 8-2 Patriots the best record in the AFC, as Kansas City lost and the Raiders play tomorrow night. Next week it's off to New York to play the hapless Jets, although it's dangerous to overlook division games.

Don't let the final score or the stats fool you; this game was much closer than it should have been for the first three quarters. In slick conditions, the Pats defense allowed 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick to complete 8 of 9 passes and notch a 155.8 QB rating for the first half. They simply couldn't cover the short zones, and even though they had five sacks at the half, they were lucky the 49ers shot themselves in the foot to stall several drives.

Meanwhile, the offense was a strange tale of two halves, but not in the usual way. In the first and fourth quarters (including the first play of the second quarter), the Pats ran 45 plays for 336 yards, one punt, and all 30 points. In between, they ran 27 plays for 108 yards, four punts, and zero points. That was one vast canyon of lousy offense in the middle of the game.

The Pats best linebacker, Dont'a Hightower spent most to the game rushing the passer, and he got a sack and forced a fumble. However, this left the short zones undermanned, and Kaepernick freely attacked them with crossing and out patterns that kept the chains moving.

Elandon Roberts was out of position too often and had just one assisted tackle yesterday, and Rob Ninkovich just isn't working that well at linebacker -- he should be moved back to defensive end ASAP. Shea McClellin got four tackles and newcomer Kyle Van Noy made his debut, and actually looked okay in limited action. However, as the defensive lapses pile up, the Jamie Collins trade looks worse by the week. 

Safeties were the top three tacklers for the Patriots: Patrick Chung had eight (plus a sack), Duron Harmon and Devin McCourty had six apiece. You know the linebackers stunk up the joint when three safeties lead the team in tackles, because they were stuck cleaning up the mess the LBs left.

And even with the 49ers gaudy passing stats, I thought the cornerbacks played pretty well. Logan Ryan got beaten at least twice when he had tight coverage, and he still knocked away two passes. And Malcolm Butler wasn't targeted much, and the one pass he gave up was a bad decision by Kaepernick that somehow inched over Butler's hand to the receiver. All in all, I even thought Eric Rowe looked decent.

Jabaal Sheard was a healthy scratch from the defensive line, a unit that was inconsistent against San Francisco. Trey Flowers got four tackles, which is impressive from a Pats D-lineman. But interior linemen Alan Branch Malcom Brown didn't do enough to slow down the run, although they did a decent job pushing the pocket back. Just not one of their best games, overall. Oh, and Chris Long just can't seem to figure out how to set the edge against the run; just isn't in his game.

On offense, the final stat sheet looks amazing. Quarterback Tom Brady grew up 25 miles from SanFran, and he enjoyed his return: 24 of 40 (60%) for 280 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 114.6 QB rating. He wasn't as consistent as usual, but twice he scrambled around in the pocket to buy time and then made amazing throws for touchdowns.

His TD pass to receiver Malcolm Mitchell was incredible, just high enough to get over the defender's outstretched hands, and in stride so Mitchell could run for a 56-yard touchdown. A thing of beauty.

With tight end Rob Gronkowski out, the bulk of the receiving chores went to Julian Edelman, who was targeted 17 times, but hauled in just 8 for 77 yards (1 TD). Mitchell ended up with 4 catches for 98 yards and the aforementioned touchdown. But aside from that, the best receivers seemed to be...

The running backs.  James White caught all six passes thrown his way (63 yards and a TD), and the returning Dion Lewis caught three of five targets (26 yards). So the completion percentage to running backs was 82%, to everyone else it was 52%. Note to Josh McDaniels, put in more swing passes and wheel routes to your running backs.

As for the running game itself, the Patriots dominated when they did run: 171 yards and an average of 5.7 yards per carry. LeGarrette Blount did the heavy lifting, as usual: 19 carries for 124 yards (no touchdowns this week). Lewis was his usual shifty self, gaining 4.6 yards a carry in limited action.

The offensive line opened gaping holes in the running game. I only wish the team stuck with it more; they could have physically dominated and worn down the 49ers defense. There were a few penalties on the O-line (I'm looking at you, Nate Solder), but for the most part, the pass protection was good enough, giving Brady time to work through all his reads. Although sometimes no receiver was open, but that's not on the O-line.

On special teams, rookie Cyrus Jones had some nice kickoff returns, and Danny Amendola returned the first punt of the game 30 yards to set up great field position. However, kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed another extra point, pushing his first attempt wide-right. After that miss, they moved to the left hashmark for subsequent attempts, and he was perfect. Maybe the field was bad on that spot, but something has to be done before Gostkowski costs the team a game.

The coaches didn't make adjustments as quickly as usual. Perhaps in trying to replace Collins they have to run more experimentation and/or give players more latitude than usual. But in the past, they would usually have done a better job shoring up the short defensive zones and would have stayed committed to the run longer.

So where does that leave us? 8-2 isn't a bad place to be, but letting a bad 49ers team hang around for three quarters wasn't great. The Jets are always dangerous in NY, so the Patriots will have to play better for 60 minutes, not just for 30, if they expect to get to 9-2.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: A close call, but James White gets the nod; for his production in the passing game and nice job picking up the blitz. Could have gone to Blount, but the long runs didn't make up for his 11 plays of two yards or less.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: For the second time in three games, there were no turnovers by either team. (Trivia question: name the last year the Patriots had two such games in one season... Answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It was good enough to beat San Fran, but they gotta figure out the linebackers or that defense will get 'em killed in the playoffs."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-2!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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This will make you happy, the last time was the 2014, season, when the won the Super Bowl!

Super Bowl Preview: Patriots vs. Seahawks

Well folks, it’s finally here. After two weeks of more PSI than YAC, the Super Bowl is this Sunday, kicking off around 6:35 pm. Not as much hype this year, with discussions side-tracked by deflated footballs and a non-talking running back.

It is tough to predict how this game will go, because the teams haven’t met in over two years. That game ended with a rookie Wilson (Seahawks quarterback Russell) beating another rookie Wilson (Patriots safety Tavon) on a last-minute touchdown to win the game 24-23. Both players are improved since then, the QB becoming a star and the safety becoming a part-time player who doesn't get beaten deep any more.

Given that I haven’t watched a lot of Seahawks games, I’ll concentrate more on how I see the Patriots attacking them, on both offense and defense. And without further adieu, here are five questions that make up my Super Duper Super Special Super Bowl Preview.

Is the Seahawks defense as good as advertised?

The Seattle defense gets a lot of pub, and most of it is earned. They are the first team since the 1985-86 Bears to allow the fewest points and the fewest yards two seasons in a row. In 2014 they ranked #5 in opponent QB rating, #2 in yards-per-completion against, allowed the fifth-fewest plays of 40+ yards, and gave up the third-fewest first downs.

They did have surprisingly few interceptions (17, ranking them #18) and sacks (37, ranking them #20). And to be fair they faced some real dreck at the quarterback position this year. Arizona and St. Louis put up backup QBs in both division games with Seattle, and they played Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco) twice, and he had his worst year as a pro. They also got to rout old friend Marc Sanchez with Philadelphia.

But you can only play who is on your schedule, and the Seattle D earned respect no matter who they faced. They even do well against the run. They ranked #2 in yards per carry against (3.4 ypc), and they only gave up a rushing touchdown every other game (eight on the year).

So even if you think the Patriots diversified offense will find a way to attack this defense, don’t for a second think Seattle’s D is overrated.

Is the Patriots defensive plan as simple as 5-2-4?

In week 16, the Patriots employed an unusual defensive alignment to stop the Jets: five defensive linemen, two linebackers, and four defensive backs. This 5-2-4 defense gave them more players at the line to stop the Jets running attack and more pass rushers to collapse the pocket without allowing the quarterback to escape.

It worked very well. From the first game to the second one, the Jets rushing production dropped from 218 yards to 116. And QB Geno Smith, who ran for four first downs in the earlier game, ran for none in the second one.

Seattle plays a similar style of offense, albeit with much better execution and quarterback play than the Jets.

The Seahawks boast an excellent running attack and a quarterback who is better when improvising outside the pocket. Running back Marshawn Lynch averaged 81.7 yards a game (4.7 ypc), and their second leading rusher was Wilson with 53.1/game (7.1 ypc). And Wilson is okay in the pocket but much more dangerous on the run, especially when his receivers break patterns down the field.

I think it’s likely the Patriots will use the 5-2-4 to combat Seattle’s offense. They can always switch out of it, but it seems perfectly suited to slowing down the Seahawks running attack and containing Wilson in the pocket.

If the Pats decide to use a more conventional defense, look for more zone than man-to-man to start the game, as that helps them against the run. Either that or you’ll see more single-high safety with Patrick Chung near the line to help in run support and Devin McCourty playing centerfield.

Also, if they go with a more standard defensive set, discipline is the key. Lynch thrives on contact, so the Patriots have to tackle well. Wilson excels outside the pocket (running or throwing), so maintaining rushing lanes and collapsing the pocket is more important than knifing in for a big play.

If I had to guess, I’d say the Patriots go more conventional at first. But if Lynch or Wilson start to crank it up, look for the Patriots to beef up on the line to slow them down.

Will Blount force soften Seattle’s defense?

Four times this year the Patriots played teams with quick-but-small defensive fronts. And all four times they loaded up with extra offensive linemen and a second and/or third tight end, and they ran the ball at will. And it just so happens Seattle's defense is quick-but-small, especially up front.

The first such game was in Minnesota, where they ran for 150 yards on 37 carries (4.1 ypc).  Three weeks later the Patriots racked up 220 yards on 46 carries (4.8 ypc) in a pasting of the Bengals. And in two games versus the Colts, the Pats gained 423 yards on 84 carries (5.0 ypc).

The Patriots didn’t just run the ball when they had a big lead; in all those games they used the rushing attack to bludgeon the opponent into submission. And 42 carries per game might be the most important stat of all. It shows how the Patriots tailored their game plan to defeat a specific weaknesses: a size mismatch.

In those four games, they averaged 42 carries for 198 yards (4.7 ypc). In their other twelve games they averaged just 22.6 carries for 78 yards (3.5 ypc). So they saw a weakness on the other team and switched to a power running game for just that week.

How long they stay with it mostly depends on how effective it is. And even if it is successful, eventually they’ll use play-action passes to attack deep. But if the New England running game gets going, it’ll be tough for Seattle to stop it -- they just don’t have the muscle up front.

And no doubt the Patriots will give this a try. After all, the aggregate score of the Patriots four run-heavy games was 160-51!

How will they stop Gronkowski? And Edelman? And LaFell? And Amendola?

The Patriots offense is an absolute nightmare for most teams. Too many formations, too many players shifting pre-snap, too many options out of every set, different pace, changing up without substituting, and a quarterback as good as anyone who’s ever played the game.

Seattle for their part likes to line up in Cover-3 or Cover-1 and beat you with superior talent, speed, and technique. They won’t shift much with pre-snap motion or formation changes, they’ll adjust who is covering whom but they won’t move people around a lot. And once the ball is snapped, they’ll be ready for whatever comes.

The problem for Seattle is that the Patriots are far more diversified on offense this season, especially in the passing game. In past years I bemoaned how they’d become too dependent on Gronkowski and Edelman (or Welker), and how that made them to easy to defend in the post-season. Most playoff teams have enough secondary talent to take two receivers out of the game, and the Patriots lacked a third or fourth threat in the passing game.

Not this year. In the last four games in which all of their top receivers played (excepting the Jets and Bills games in December), here are the number of receptions for each of those players:




	Chargers	Dolphins	Ravens	Colts	Total
Gronkowski	8	3	7	3	21
Edelman	8	7	8	9	32
LaFell	4	6	5	4	19
Amendola	3	1	5	1	10

So even if Seattle concentrates on Gronkowski and Edelman, that will leave LaFell and/or Amendola one-on-one or even open in zones. Last year it would have been enough to stop the Patriots top two receivers, but not this year. The Seahawks don’t like to mix it up on defense, but they’d better consider it on Sunday. Otherwise, once the Patriots figure out what they are doing, they’ll find the open man and slice down the field one 5- to 8-yard pass at a time.

Quick Hits:

A) For all their physical play, the Seahawks committed the fewest defensive penalties (70) in the league this year. Ironically, their offense committed the most penalties, 130.

B) Seahawks ranked a surprising twentieth in Red Zone defense, giving up touchdowns on 56.8% of opponent trips inside the 20 yard line. Patriots ranked sixth in Red Zone offense, scoring touchdowns 62.3% of the time.

C) Seattle outscored opponents 255-123 in the second half of their games (including playoffs). New England outscored opponents 265-157 in the second half of their games (including playoffs). Sounds like those two might offset each other.

D) Seahawks defenders will push the limits of what’s legal. In the NFC Championship Game, corner Byron Maxwell committed at least five penalties but was flagged just once. And defensive end Cliff Avril was cited for illegal hands to the face twice in the first half.

BTW, even though every call was obvious, both players complained to high heaven after the flags were thrown.

Summary

I’m predicting a Patriots win, by 10+ points. Not because the Patriots offense will dominate, but because the Seattle offense will struggle against the Patriots defense. For all the pre-game questions about how the Patriots will score, I don’t see how the Seahawks score more than 20 points without getting turnovers. And they are much more likely to score 13-16 points, IMO.

Note #1: for the record that every time I think a playoff game should be a “comfortable win” for the Patriots, it turns out to be a nail-biter where the Pats are as likely to lose as win.

Note #2: I am 15-3 predicting the victor in Patriots games this year, and 16 of those predictions were made before the season even started :D

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Both teams have played 18 games this year, but the Patriots have given up fewer fourth-quarter points (65) than the Seahawks (80).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Too bad the NFL botched their investigation. It would have been fun to talk about the actual matchup for two weeks."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 14-4 & 2-0!

49ers Outlast Patriots, 41-34

San Francisco came to town and played the part of inhospitable guests, building a 28-point lead and hanging on for a 41-34 victory over the Patriots.  The loss dropped the Pats a game behind the Broncos for the second seed in the AFC, and all but puts the #1 seed out of reach.  Next week it's a tilt against the Jaguars in Jacksonville (site of the Patriots' most recent Super Bowl victory), and they need a win to stay ahead of the Baltimore Ravens and avoid slipping to the #4 seed.

The game was ugly early, great for about 18 minutes, and then depressing late.  Speaking of late, it's after 3:00, so I'll keep this update brief.  Not much to say beyond "Patriots stunk up the joint" anyway.

First, credit where it is due -- San Fran head coach Jim Harbaugh put together a great game plan.  He attacked the Patriots defense with ingenious schemes, attacked their offense with brute force and turnovers, and used special teams to extend drives and (more importantly) to keep the Pats backed up all game long.

The first 49ers score came when two receivers lined up next to each other and ran fly patterns into the end zone.  Both got behind the defensive backs, and the safety was late getting over, so it was an easy touchdown to Randy Moss -- though it could have gone to the tight end just as easily.  On another touchdown, they ran two tight ends to the same half of the end zone, but their scheme left the Patriots' Alfonzo Dennard alone to defend both players -- another easy touchdown.

They also ran a fake punt, which is something they probably saw in film study.  And with the combination of turnovers and great punting, the average 49ers drive started on their 46 yard line, whereas the average Patriots drive started on their own 20 yard line.  Patriots special teams penalties contributed to that disparity, too, but it was mostly great punting and kickoff coverage by San Francisco.

The Niners defense was good enough to hold the Pats for a half.  But giving more credit where it is due, the Patriots made outstanding halftime adjustments, and scored four touchdowns in less than 20:00 of game time.  Unfortunately, they'd dug themselves too deep a hole.  Down by 28 points, they had to be perfect just to catch up, which they did -- but then, they slipped up a few times down the stretch and San Francisco took advantage and put the game away.

In the Patriots first 9 possessions, they had: 3 three-and-outs, 1 four-and-out, 2 lost fumbles, 2 interceptions, and 1 field goal.  Their second fumble and second interception came on their first two possessions of the third quarter, and those turnovers left them down 31-3, and all looked hopeless.  But once the Pats stopped stopping themselves, they roared back to tie the game.

Not often you lose the turnover battle 4-2 and even have a chance to win.  But the Pats defense stopped the 49ers on five second-half possessions, while the offense racked up four straight touchdowns.  But alas, the Niners used a great kickoff return to set up a one-play touchdown and vault back into the lead.  And the Patriots offense looked like it would score to tie it again, but two sacks on consecutive plays ended that drive, and effectively any chance to win the game.

It wasn't all bad, so here are some of the good things that happened:

1.  Great halftime adjustments by the offensive line coach and the offensive coordinator.  If not for turnovers, they could well have pulled out the game, the turnaround was that stunning.

2.  Tom Brady's touchdown-saving tackle after an interception -- and the defense turning the ball back over to the offense two plays later.

3.  Brandon Lloyd ended up with 10 catches for 190 yards, by far his best game with the Patriots.  This is a very encouraging sign, as the team chugs toward the playoffs.  Oh, and San Francisco had no answer for Aaron Hernandez (10 for 92), and they couldn't cover Wes Welker in the second half (5 for 56).

4.  Danny Woodhead's shifty running style worked better against the large 49ers defense; he had 61 yards on the ground, 5 catches for 23 yards, and 2 rushing TDs.  Once a millstone on the first- and second-down offense, he's a nice change of pace, especially against lumbering defensive linemen. 
 And to be balanced, here are some of the lowlights for the Patriots:

1.  Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen -- tsk tsk tsk, take better care of the ball.  If not, Brandon Bolden will get your carries in the postseason.

2.  The interior of the Patriots defense was repeatedly gashed for big yards right up the middle.  And when they had shots at SF quarterback Colin Kaepernick, they didn't take them, letting up or letting him get away instead.

3.  Secondary miscommunications and/or poor design -- too many 49ers receivers running wide open, especially in the end zone.

4.  8 penalties for 73 yards, the worst of which was an illegal shift that negated a touchdown.  There were also several penalties that canceled out good punt returns and gave the offense a long field to drive.

5.  The referees -- made the game too long, blew several pass interference calls on both sides, somehow missed a muffed punt, and spent too much time talking with coaches.

So where does this leave us?  10-4 and needing help to secure a playoff bye.  But don't count on it.  The Patriots could run the table, but Denver has to lose to Cleveland or Kansas City, neither of which seems likely to give the Broncos much of a game.  Next week it's Jacksonville, who will pay the price for the Patriots missteps this week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  Brandon Lloyd had almost as many yards yesterday (190) as he had in the previous five games combined (214).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:  "Can't win 'em all -- especially when they fumble six times and you only get one of them."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-4!

Patriots School the Texans, 42-14

The Patriots continued their December dominance with a thrashing of the upstart Houston Texans, a 42-14 beat down at Foxboro that pitted a prepared team against an ill-prepared one.  The win put the Patriots firmly in the lead for a playoff bye, and only one game behind Houston for the #1 playoff seed in the AFC.  Next week they take on the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, on a short week, but at least it's at home.

This game reminded me of a game the Patriots lost a few years ago; a 38-17 loss to the Saints in New Orleans.  In that game, the Pats had more mental breakdowns on defense than they've had this entire season, and Saints QB Drew Brees made them pay for every mistake.  Brees averaged an astonishing 16.1 yards per attempt, and the Cold, Hard Football Facts web site declared it the greatest passing performance in NFL history (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/brees-the-best-day-ever/7187/).  I remember it as the most embarrassing game since Rod Rust and his 1-15 record left town.  (Trivia question: can you name the team Rust's 1990 Patriots beat... answer below.)

Last night, the Texans had a linebacker cover Aaron Hernandez and the Pats tight end scored a touchdown.  They lost track of Hernandez near the goal-line, and it was an easy throw for his second score.  The Texans bit on play-action fakes, even when the Patriots hadn't run the ball effectively yet, and gave up long pass to Wes Welker and a Brandon Lloyd touchdown.  They also committed two pass interference penalties.  And that was just the first half.

On offense, quarterback Matt Schaub threw a red zone interception when he could have tied the game.  Wideout Kevin Walter dropped a fourth-and-five pass to turn the ball back to the Patriots.  And when they went back to him on the next drive, he failed to catch another pass on fourth-and-five (at least he was consistent).  There were multiple dropped passes, and free Patriots blitzers smacking Schaub around just as he released the ball.

Nothing went right for Houston, and everything went right for New England.  Even when the Texans caused their two fumbles: they could have fallen on the first one and missed it (Pats TD two plays later); and the second one bounced into the end zone and Lloyd fell on it for another touchdown.  They gave up field position with penalties on special teams.  They ran into the teeth of nine-man fronts, and waited until they were down 28-0 to try play-action throws to all-world receiver Andre Johnson.

Sometimes Bill Belichick will call a victory a "team win."  This was a Houston "team loss" -- with contributions from offense, defense, special teams, and the coaching staff.

As for the Patriots, the good news on offense:

1.  Tom Brady was surgical in the first 20 minutes, but his accuracy and effectiveness diminished when the Texans started knocking him around in the second quarter.  The offensive line did a pretty good job getting to the QB (only one sack, but six other QB hits -- and some serious hits at that).  And once the Patriots made their halftime adjustments, Brady was surgical again in the second half.

2.  Looks like Brandon Lloyd will pick up the slack for the missing Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman.  The Pats went 1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 receivers most of the game, and while that personnel gives it away that they are passing the ball, Lloyd gives them an outside threat to compliment the inside receivers.

3.  Donte Stallworth can still go deep, as he did on his 63-yard touchdown, featuring a nice catch, two broken tackles, and a stretch for the end zone.

4.  Once the game was in hand, the coaches did a great job using the up-tempo offense to tire out the Texans defense.  And when they were tired, the Patriots ran out of the no huddle, keeping them from substituting and gashing them with clock-killing runs.  In the fourth quarter alone, the Pats had 10 rushes for 65 yards -- that's exactly half their rushing yards.

5.  The return of guard Logan Mankins was a boon inside, bringing not only great blocking, but also an attitude.  He got a huge push on several running plays, and kept at it with the active and talented Houston front seven.

6.  The foursome at running back all had their time to shine: Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen carried the load, Danny Woodhead had some nice catches and a great catch-and-run, and rookie Brandon Bolden averaged 5.5 yards in his return from a drug suspension.

The good news on defense:

1.  Vince Wilfork might be playing the best football of his career.  He was always an immovable object, but now he's getting to the passer and busting through double-teams to make tackles in the backfield.  Reminiscent of Richard Seymour at his prime, which as you know is some of the best you will ever see.

2.  Corners Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, and Kyle Arrington held Johnson in check in the first half and everybody else in check the entire game.  They battled and scrapped, and took full advantage of the rushed throws by Schaub.



3.  Devin McCourty is now the Patriots best safety, and he even moved back to corner to replace the injured Talib in the second half.  McCourty's first quarter interception changed the direction of the game, and he also had a pass defended, a tackle for a loss, and five tackles on the day.

4.  Jerod Mayo, but only when he's blitzing.  When he attacks the passer, he hurries the throw at least 75% of the time, and when he run blitzes, he either gets to the running back or redirects him and/or disrupts the timing enough to blow up the play.  In pass coverage, not so good... not good at all.

5.  Trevor Scott; 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble in two games.  A better-than-adequate replacement while Jermaine Cunningham serves his suspension.

And finally, the bit of bad news:

1.  Two fumbles; just unacceptable.  They recovered both of them, but in the playoffs, putting the ball on the ground is the surest way to lose.  They have to straighten this out fast, San Francisco hits hard and is always trying to jar the ball loose.

2.  Offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer just isn't very effective with his back problems.  He was dominated several times by Houston's J.J. Watt, and the Patriots had to slide tight ends to his side when they ran.  The worse news: the team doesn't really have a good alternative to Vollmer.

3.  Wes Welker's three dropped passes.  With Gronkowski out, every offensive mistake is magnified, and of the six targets that were not completed, at least three of them were flat-out drops by Welker.

4.  Commentator Jon Gruden, who apparently can't tell the difference between Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes in pass coverage.  Or is it that he doesn't want to admit Mayo's problems covering tight ends... not sure.

So where does this leave us?  As stated earlier, the Patriots will get a first-round playoff bye if they win the rest of their games.  However, that won't be easy, with the tough and battle-tested 49ers coming to town in six days.  A win there, and they can likely beat Jacksonville and Miami to close it out, but this Sunday is a daunting task, especially on a short week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week:  Entering this season, Zoltan Mesko was the NFL's all-time leader in career net punting average.  This year ranks 30th in the NFL in that category.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom:  "That game was the football equivalent of 'Godzilla Versus Bambi.'"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-3!

PPS.  Trivia answer: on September 16, 1990, Rod Rust notched his only victory as an NFL head coach -- but just barely.  The Patriots beat the Colts in Indianapolis, 16-14, which means the Rust Era ended with zero home victories.

Patriots Blow Out Bills, 52-28

After sleepwalking through the first half, the Patriots roared back with a record 45 second-half points and drubbed their favorite whipping boys, the Buffalo Bills, 52-28.  The win, coupled with a Jets loss to San Francisco puts the Patriots in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East.  Only the losing Dolphins trail at 1-3.  Next week the Manning-led Broncos come to town for what will be an important game for both teams.

Neither team seemed interesting in winning in the first half.  The Patriots got zero points on three Buffalo turnovers, and the Bills could have put the Pats two scores behind but fumbled inside the 1 yard-line.  The Patriots had their first two fumbles of the entire season in the second quarter, but the Bills countered with two terrible interceptions and that fumble in the red zone.

But in the second half, there was no question who wanted to win.  The Bills scored on their first possession to take a 21-7 lead.  The next time they scored, it was already 42-28 Patriots and the game was effectively over.  The Patriots scored touchdowns on six consecutive possessions, and unlike the first half, they converted three Buffalo turnovers into 17 points.

Though he was masterful in the second half, Tom Brady needs to stop forcing the ball to newcomer Brandon Lloyd.  He targeted him as many times as Wes Welker in the first half, but had almost nothing to show for it.  Lloyd seems to understand the offense, but Brady has to trust that the chemistry with Lloyd will develop, and that the second half touchdown they combined on will be the norm in the future.  He can't continue to force the ball to Lloyd without risking interceptions (though thankfully there were none yesterday).

Brady's stats on the day: 22 of 36, 340 yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, 0 interceptions, 120.1 QB rating, 1 sack for 7 yards, and aside from forcing the ball to Lloyd a perfect day.  He threw it away when necessary and changed to running plays when necessary to exploit defensive alignments.  In fact, he was almost as instrumental in a dominating running game as any of the blockers.

Speaking of the running game, this was the first game in almost 30 years in which the Patriots had two 100 yard rushers.  Stevan Ridley continues his solid and sometimes spectacular running style with a 22 carry, 106 yard, 2 touchdown day.  And he picks up blitzers! Add to that rookie free agent Brandon Bolden's 16 carries, 137 yards, and 1 touchdown, and the team took 40 carries 247 yards (6.2 ypc) and got 4 touchdowns, including Brady's scramble being the fourth.  (Trivia question: name the last undrafted rookie to run for 100+ yards for the Patriots?  Extra credit if you can name the year and opponent.  Answer below.)

Bolden and Ridley ran through holes opened up by multiple players and factors.  The Bills played a soft zone so they wouldn't get beaten by the passing game, which made running easier.  But the offensive line did an outstanding job clearing out a stout Bills D-line.  And that was without star guard Logan Mankins (on the shelf for this game).  But the unexpected factor was the blocking by the tight ends.  Rob Gronkowski was the lead blocker up the middle for the lion's share of those yards.  And surprising newcomer Daniel Fells did a great job sealing the edge or kicking out on two of the touchdowns.

Not to be outdone, the receivers had two 100+ yard performances of their own.  Wes Welker made himself Mister Indispensable in the second half, with 6 catches for almost 100 yards after halftime.  He finished with 9-129, and converted first downs on 5 of 6 grabs in the second half.  Gronkowski started out shaky, with a few drops and a fumble in the first half.  But when the game was over, he had 5 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown.  And as noted, about 10 devastating blocks in the running game.  Danny Woodhead got the Patriots back in the game with a nice adjustment and run-after-catch for a 17-yard touchdown that started the six-touchdown train a-rollin'.

The defense had a bunch of stars on the day.  But none shone brighter than Rob Ninkovich or Vince Wilfork.  On a day when the Bills (who led the NFL in rushing before yesterday) could have gashed the Patriots with cut-backs and power rushes, Ninkovich and Wilfork sealed the outside and the inside respectively.  Ninkovich had 7 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble.  Wilfork had 3 tackles, 2 passes knocked down, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.  These to set the tone on the defensive line, and Chandler Jones and Jermaine Cunningham pitched in with timely plays.

The linebackers had a down day until the Bills fell way behind.  Once Dont'a Hightower went out, Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick exploited bad linebacker coverage for big gains in the passing game.  Pass coverage is not the strong suit of either Brandon Spikes or Jerod Mayo.  And even though Spikes did make one nice play in pass coverage and Mayo got a tipped-ball interception, the mid-level passing game is what kept the Bills alive.  Both players are more run-stoppers, and Spikes had a huge game in that area, forcing the first-half fumble that kept the score close.  But the fact remains; if Buffalo hadn't insisted on giving the game away, we might be talking about the team's weakness and lack of depth at linebacker (Tracy White, really?).  But of course, a win cures all ills...

The secondary was also up-and-down on the day.  Devin McCourty nabbed two interceptions and knocked away two passes.  He also did a great job in run support (and always does).  However, he also let up at least two long passes, and just about everyone in the secondary missed Donald Jones on his 68-yard jaunt.  Sterling Moore and Kyle Arrington continued to battle every down.  It isn't perfect with either of them, but mostly teams seem to pick on McCourty, so neither gave up a ton.

Rookie Tayvon Wilson looks like the real deal.  He got his second interception yesterday, and recovered a fumble, too.  He and safety Patrick Chung give the secondary some attitude and swagger, and they are sorely in need of that as teams continue to attack them as the weakest part of the defense.  Safety Steve Gregory impresses every game, although in the interest of full disclosure, both he and Chung missed the boat on Buffalo's second touchdown, letting them split the middle for an easy pitch-and-catch.

On special teams, Stephen Gostkowski's case of the "yips" showed up in the first half.  He missed two field goals, one wide right and one wide left.  He needs to get himself together before those misses cost the Patriots another game (as they did against the Ravens last week and the Cardinals the week before).  Punter Zoltan Mesko did a nice job, both punting and holding.  Though it's unclear if long-snapper Danny Aiken is putting it where it should be on field goals.  It looks like those snaps are a little close to the body of the holder; but that might be what they want, since it's what they get week after week.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels made great halftime adjustments.  It probably shouldn't have taken until the half, but getting back to Wes Welker and pounding the running game against five- and six-defensive back sets was the way to go.  And new tight ends coach George Godsey appears to be doing quite well, my preseason concerns notwithstanding.  Each new tight end seems to work into the offense well -- if not catching passes, at least doing a good job blocking.

So where does that leave us?  The Bills had a chance to go up 2.5 games over the Patriots (including the tie-breaker), but the comeback win basically gives the Patriots a 0.5 game lead over the Bills in the division.  The Broncos come to town next, and they have traditionally given the Patriots fits when they have good quarterbacking.  Well, it doesn't get much better than Peyton Manning, so things will not be easy this week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Oh, what to choose... the 45 points in the second half (NFL record), the two 100-yard rushers *and* two 100-yard receivers (only the second time in NFL history), or the 580 total yards (4th most in Patriots history).  I will go with Brady's astounding 19-2 record against the Bills.  I doubt there are any quarterbacks with that kind of record against a divisional opponent in league history.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If Gostkowski hits his field goals, the Patriots are 4-0 this morning."

Bonus Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Remember the Raven's debacle?  24 total penalties for 218 yards.  Against the Bills it was 4 penalties for 27 yards.  Welcome back, real refs!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  2-2!

PPS.  Trivia Answer

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None other than BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 105 yards on 26 carries against these same Buffalo Bills on November 9, 2008.