Patriots Escape With 27-24 Win

The Patriots spotted Miami a 17-point lead, then roared back with five straight scoring drives to eke out a 27-24 victory. The win gives them a first-round bye in the playoffs, and if they beat Buffalo on New Year's Day, they will own the #1 seed in the AFC. They will also avenge an early-season loss to the Bills, and perhaps start another win-streak against them.

You've probably read elsewhere that it was a game of two halves: 17-0 Miami to start, and 27-7 Patriots to finish. True enough, but it was more about effective Patriots adjustments than bad play by the Dolphins. Running back Reggie Bush ran 16 times for 81 yards in the first half; but the Patriots formation changes limited him to 6 carries and 32 yards in the last second. Quarterback Matt Moore looked like a world-beater after 30 minutes but was just beaten down in the last 30:00:

Moore's first half: 10 for 19, 179 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 sacks (7 yards)
Moore's second half: 6 for 13, 102 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks (21 yards)

The Patriots biggest defensive adjustments were to funnel the running game toward the middle, and to run-blitz and go to the quarterback if it turned out to be a pass play. This was the third week in a row where they had to stop overreacting to run-action fakes, and they have to get that worked out earlier in playoff games.

Pats QB Tom Brady got pretty beaten up in the first half, owing to a make-shift offensive line. Matt Light was a late scratch, and the shifting up front gave the Pats some problems in the first half. But they made enough adjustments to get it going in the second half, aided by the quick-strike no-huddle.

No time for a detailed breakdown of the game, but here are the trends as we head into the last game of the regular season.

1.  Devin McCourty is coming on strong. In the first 10.5 games, he had 2 passes defended and no interceptions. In the last 2.5 games, he had 9 passes defended, 1 interception, and 1 interception called back on a penalty. He stunk up the joint for most of the season, but if he comes through in the playoffs, all will be forgiven.

2.  They need Patrick Chung for the playoffs. Safety play is their biggest problem now, and the current mish-mash of players are great against the run and do their best with limited talent. But in the passing game, they commit too early, giving the quarterback easy decisions down the field. And their bad angles make for lots of tackles after the catch but not many broken up passes.

Chung is their only solution here; they cut James Sanders before the season, and they have so little talent at safety that receiver Matthew Slater fills in.

3.  They might have to adjust formations for Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Teams seem determined to take them both away, and that is much more difficult when they line up on opposite sides of the formation. On the same side of the field, you can cover them both effectively with three defenders. But on opposite sides, you have to commit four (two on each player), which opens things up for Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch, and the running backs.

4.  Brady injured his shoulder, but if he can go in the playoffs, he has to be sharper early in the game. The Patriots averaged just 4.0 points in the first quarters of their last 10 games, down from 8.4 points per game prior to that. To help the offense and give Brady more time to work into the flow of the game, offensive coordinator should work in some more running plays and perhaps go up-tempo earlier.

5.  Julian Edelman will be more valuable on defense than offense once the post-season starts. His size and quickness make him better-suited to cover slot receivers than the current Patriots linebackers. And Edelman has been an afterthought on offense; so maybe he should spend all of his practice time working with the defense instead.

6.  Offensive line health is key. The O-line had trouble against Miami early on, but they made the proper adjustments and got things straightened out. But the situation is dire -- they are down to their third and fourth centers of the season, and with Matt Light out last game, had to shift a guard to tackle and that made them weaker all along the line.

One more injury could prove fatal to their playoff chances.

7.  Stevan Ridley has young, fresh legs -- use them. Ridley shows great burst, and still hasn't missed more than a few blocking assignments all year. The Patriots should use him in the hurry-up offense. Given more space to work with, Ridley could gash defenses and make them play the run, even in the shotgun/spread formation.

8.  Unsung hero of the year so far: Zoltan Mesko. Because the Patriots score so much, Mesko doesn't have as many punts as the league average. But his numbers are eye-popping on only 55 kicks: 42% of his punts end up inside the 20 yard line; 31% result in a fair catch; and his 41.4 yard average is fourth in the NFL. Also, it was noted on a recent broadcast that the longest punt return against him is 26 yards.

Additionally, Mesko handles his field-goal holder duties flawlessly, despite working with four different long snappers in two years. In crucial situations this year, Mesko booted long punts to turn around field position. All in all, not bad work for a guy who hardly gets on the field. 

So where does that leave us? The victory guarantees the Patriots a first-round bye in the playoffs and a home playoff game. A win over Buffalo next week gives them home-field throughout the AFC playoffs. The game won't be easy; Buffalo has little left to lose, and would like nothing better than to sweep the team that beat them 15 straight times before this season. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: By the end of the weekend, it will be 143 regular-season games since the Patriots sported a losing record. They lost to Buffalo on opening day in 2003, to fall to 0-1. Since that time, they have never had a record below .500 at any time during any season.

Note: if you don't think that's impressive, the second longest such streak in NFL history was 96 games, which means the Patriots streak is 49% longer than the second best streak ever ( (trivia question: can you name the team?). 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sorry, I don't have anything to add this week -- my blogger friend slacked off instead of sending me an update."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  12-3!

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This week's opponent, the Buffalo Bills, were never below .500 between 1988 and 1993.

Patriots Best Broncos, 41-23

The Patriots proved their mettle yesterday and came away with a 41-23 victory in Denver. They improved to 11-3 and clinched another AFC East title, and they currently hold the #1 seed in the AFC (pending the Pittsburgh game tonight). Up next the Buffalo Bills come to Foxboro for a rematch on Christmas Eve day, and the Bills are reeling, losers of seven straight after a fast start to the season.

The 41-23 final score does not indicate how nerve-wracking the first half was. The Broncos ran the ball at will early on and scored on three consecutive drives to lead 16-7 after the first 20 minutes. But the battle-tested Patriots rode three turnovers and good second-half adjustments to a 34-7 thrashing the rest of the way. The young Broncos wilted in the spotlight, with fumbles by three players in their second or third years in the league.

When the other team runs for 167 yards in the first quarter there are lots of culprits. But the one who stood out was linebacker Rob Ninkovich. He lost outside contain on at least four long runs and then inexplicably let Denver running backs break *inside* after that. It was ugly watching him play in the first half. He did have a fumble recovery and in the second half got a loooong sack (28 yards); but while blitzing the Denver quarterback he let Tim Tebow outside the pocket for big plays. All around a disappointing day from a usually solid-but-not-spectacular player.

As for the rest of the defense, it was a tale of two halves. The linebackers went for too many play-action fakes in the first half, but played better when they could ignore the run because of the big lead. The defensive line couldn't lay a glove on Denver's running backs early, but run-blitzed to clog things up in the second half. And the defensive backfield was left high-and-dry early on, as the front seven got repeatedly gashed and the safeties and corners broke coverage to make tackles. But in the second half, they mostly held their coverage long enough and were pretty tight on the receivers.

And to put it bluntly about the secondary, they are in big trouble if they don't get Patrick Chung back for the playoffs. The current safety play is the worst since Bob Kraft bought the team; too many bad angles and incorrect guesses (though in fairness the tackling is okay). On third-and-18 late in the game, Sergio Brown covered no one while Denver wideout Demaryius Thomas ran a deep sideline pattern for 39 yards. On the play Devin McCourty expected help, and on the replay it was obvious that help was supposed to be Brown. 

Chung has been out for a while, and the Patriots have survived against lesser teams in his absence. But the team won't be going anywhere in the playoffs without improved safety play, and their only chance at that is a return by Chung.

Fortunately for the defense the offense converted three turnovers into points. After a fumble (forced by Ron Brace, recovered by Ninkovich), the Patriots settled for a field goal when a quick-pass to Aaron Hernandez in the end zone was just short. That was emblematic of quarterback Tom Brady's first half, when he had a few off-target passes and a middling 57% completions. But he drove them for a touchdown after a great play by linebacker Mark Anderson (strip-sack of Tebow *and* fumble recovery). And just before the half, a fumble on a late punt gave them a gift three points.

The Patriots started fast, with a 5-play, 80-yard touchdown that ended with a beautifully designed play on Chad Ochocinco's first Patriots score (33 yards along the left sideline). As mentioned, Brady wasn't sharp at first, and the offense stagnated after that initial drive. But the turnovers turned things around, and once they had the lead, Brady sliced the Denver defense the rest of the game. He had nine incompletions in the first half, and just two in the second half, and ended the day 23-34, 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Hernandez was the receiving star of the day -- 9 grabs for 129 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos defense obviously didn't want to get beaten by Wes Welker (4 for 41) or Rob Gronkowski (4 for 53), and that's the beauty of having so many offensive weapons. Neither Hernandez nor Gronkowski can be covered one-on-one by linebackers or safeties, so the opponent has to choose whom to cover with a cornerback and hope the other one doesn't kill them. In this case, Hernandez was more than happy to benefit from double-teams on Welker and Gronkowski.

For the first time in a while, the leading rusher wasn't BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He couldn't get anything going, so the Pats brought in rookie Stevan Ridley and his patient style exposed gaps in the Denver D. He ran 11 times for 65 yards, and gave just the right change of pace to keep the Broncos honest and slow down the pass rush just enough. Danny Woodhead (7 for 40) had some nifty moves in traffic, and Brady had a few QB sneaks (one for a touchdown).

The coaching staff did a great job of adjusting this week. The first few series saw a lot of Denver pressure on Brady. So they used running backs and tight ends to chip the Denver pass rushers, and that calmed things down up front. And in the second half, they run-blitzed most of the time, and with a few very notable exceptions contained Tebow in the pocket. It was clear Tebow wasn't going to take chances with the ball, so with the pressure and his inexperience, he had a very bad second half. 

So where does that leave us? 11-3 and winners of the AFC East, the Patriots now control whether or not they have a first-round playoff bye. If they win their last two games, they will rest the first week of the playoffs. And if they do that, and Pittsburgh loses one of their last three games, the Patriots will be the #1 seed in the AFC.

This week against Buffalo is less risky than the last game against Miami; but Buffalo already beat the Patriots once this year and they play better against the Pats in Foxboro. Hopefully the team won't overlook the Bills, and to that end, Bill Belichick has almost certainly reminded them about the 34-31 shootout they lost. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have given up over 250 rushing twice -- and won both games. They gave up 252 yesterday, and the other game was in 2002, can you name the opponent that day (answer below)? 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It looked to me like the Broncos were overwhelmed by the moment. Three fumbles by three young players; I think that tells you they were nervous."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 11-3!

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Despite giving up 256 yards on the ground, the Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins on the last day of the season in 2002, 27-24.

Patriots Skin Washington, 34-27

The Patriots survived another close one but came out on top of Washington, 34-27. The win kept them two games ahead of the Jets in the AFC East and one win (or a Jets loss) from claiming another division crown. (Note: I misinformed you last week -- the Patriots did not clinch the AFC East title with their win. My apologies.) Up next is a match with Tim Tebow and the Broncos in Denver, which if you ask the six teams he's beaten will be no easy task.

Yesterday's game in Washington was back and forth, and featured more scoring by Mike Shanahan's charges than many expected. But after three quarters of high-powered offense, the teams went 0-for the fourth quarter and traded red zone interceptions to effectively end the game. Tom Brady giveth, and Jerod Mayo taketh away, and the Patriots escaped with their fifth consecutive win.

One Patriots player was a microcosm of the entire Patriots defense, as that unit played almost exactly the way corner Devin McCourty did as an individual. Both gave up too many big gains in the passing game. Both stuffed the inside run but lost contain and missed assignments on outside rushes and misdirection/trick plays. And both took bad drops and angles that gave Washington too much room in zone coverage. But in the end both McCourty and the defense made big plays at critical times to stop drives and force turnovers or punts.

McCourty allowed three big plays to former Patriots receivers Donte Stallworth (51 and 23 yards) and Jabar Gaffney (23 yards). But he also notched three passes defended and eight tackles on the day, including plays that forced punts on two of the last three Washington drives. The Patriots need to see more of the latter from McCourty as they drive toward the playoffs.

His secondary mates didn't fare very well at all. Safety James Ihedigbo blew coverage on two touchdowns (one trick play, one "pick" play), and Kyle Arrington had six tackles but did little to stop passes from being completed. As a unit, they gave up 15.1 yards a catch, a number that usually loses you the game. It is probably enough to say that wide receiver Julian Edelman had the second best coverage on the day, and that the only non-McCourty pass knock-downs were by linebackers (Jerod Mayo and Tracy White).

Speaking of linebackers, they are just barely holding that unit together. Mayo is fine now, looking fully recovered from his injury. He followed-up his first career interception last week with his second yesterday -- a game-saving INT as Washington was driving for a tying score. He topped the team with eight tackles and even got some pressure on the quarterback.

Rob Ninkovich is okay, but seems overmatched in pass coverage and trying to hold the edge against the run. It was nice to see Dane Fletcher back, but they really need Brandon Spikes to return. He isn't great, but he gives the unit an intangible stability and attitude. The press overblows how well Spikes plays, but whenever he's out there, Mayo plays better and they seem to cover the mid-level passing game a lot more effectively.

Along the defensive line, Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love (in concert with Mayo, McCourty, and Fletcher) did a really nice job clogging up runs through the middle. The problems came with the classic Shanahan "stretch play" around end. Andre Carter and Mark Anderson were forced past the quarterback and neutralized by the stretch play too often.

Carter did come up with an important forced fumble (recovered by Wilfork for his first career touchdown). But if the Patriots don't want to get run over next week, they will have to do better forcing the run back inside. Note: both Brandon Deaderick and Shawn Ellis did fine in spot duty; though the team probably expected more from Ellis this season.

The offense called 40 pass plays and just 18 rushes. In one way it made sense; they averaged 16.2 yards a catch for the game. But in another way it made no sense at all. Tom Brady and his receivers (Deion Branch and Wes Welker specifically) had communication problems early in the game. And Brady missed a wide open Danny Woodhead on an easy check-down -- all of which left him under 50% completions at the half.

The passing attack eventually got in sync, and combined with the no-huddle, the pace was lightning fast (average scoring drive was just 2:53). Tom Brady's stats were wonderful as usual (22 of 37 for 357 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception). But the one interception was crucial, as the Patriots could have iced the game with a field goal and only needed to avoid that turnover. I heard he had words with the offensive coordinator after that; maybe there's a news story posted somewhere about that.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski continues to be the Chuck Norris of Patriots receivers, an unstoppable force that appears to dominate effortlessly. He had 6 catches for 160 yards and grabbed 2 touchdown passes for the sixth time this year, which leads the entire NFL (trivia question: name the player in second place with four such games this season, answer below). Welker was his usual indispensable self (7-86, 1 touchdown).

The other tight end, Aaron Hernandez, diversified the passing game with 5 for 84. And Chad Ochocinco got his requisite one catch (for an important first down), and that was about it for the passing game. Still a little too dependent on a few receivers, but very effective yesterday.

And you can't have an effective passing game without at least good offensive line play. Which is what the Patriots got, good O-line play, not great, not bad, just good. The O-line allowed a little too much pressure (1 sack, 6 quarterback hits) and didn't open up many rushing lanes (except for Woodhead's shotgun runs). They do have the injury excuse; they had only seven offensive linemen active for the game, including rookies Marcus Cannon and Nate Solder (who started).

The running game isn't really worth mentioning; so I'll be brief. Danny Woodhead worked well out of the shotgun (8 rushes for 41 yards), but you know you can't run when you bring in 35 year-old Kevin Faulk to give the running attack a shot in the arm. And no matter what they think, the Patriots can't line up in a power formation and run the ball against any decent defense. So they should probably stop trying -- deception works much better for them. 

Special teams contributed a huge play early when Zoltan Mesko booted a punt that was downed inside the five yard-line by Matthew Slater. That turned into a fumble in the end zone and a New England touchdown; which is big in a game you win by seven points. Other than that, Julian Edelman had a nice punt return, and the kickoffs were plenty deep enough. But most of the field goals were easily make-able, so nothing special there.

In the battle of coaching wits, it appeared that Mike Shanahan won this round. He always gives Belichick a tough game, and if he had better talent (you know, better than a 4-9 record would indicate), he might have pulled this one out. And there was the argument on the sideline, something between a well-known quarterback and an unknown offensive coordinator. Not sure the details, but I'll have to check into it. 

So where does that leave us? 10-3 and one game from an AFC East crown, that's where! The game next week is interesting, because the Patriots excel at beating teams with one-dimensional offenses, which is mostly what the Denver Broncos have. However, the game against Washington showed the Pats defense is vulnerable to outside runs, which his where the Broncos excel. An intriguing one for sure -- especially when you consider how badly the Patriots have played in Denver over the years.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Kansas City Chiefs versus the AFC East this year: 0-4 and outscored 141-23. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "How bad is the Pats secondary? Two linebackers and a defensive lineman are tied for second on the team with 2 interceptions each. That's pretty bad." (Trivia question #2: name those players, answer below.)

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  10-3!

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Answer #1: Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions started the season with four consecutive games with two touchdown catches (and he has no such games since then).

Answer #2: Defensive lineman Vince Wilfork and linebackers Rob Ninkovich and Jerod Mayo are tied for the second-most interceptions on the Patriots.

Patriots Hold Off Late Rally For 31-24 Victory

Don't let the final score fool you; the Patriots dominated most of the day and sent the Colts back to Indianapolis with a 31-24 loss and an embarrassing 0-12 record. The win puts the Patriots one win (or one loss by the New York Jets) away from their fourteenth division title, and keeps them in the race for the #1 or #2 seed in the AFC. Next up is a road trip to the nation's capital for a date with the boys from Washington.

Indy is so bad this season, they've only held the lead against one team that currently sports a winning record, and that lead lasted only 4:05 of game time. (Trivia question: name the team -- answer below.) And the Patriots did what good teams do when they play bad ones; they dominated and built up a four-touchdown lead. Unfortunately, they let off the offensive accelerator and allowed the Colts to rally back to a one-score loss.

Ill-timed penalties and costly turnovers didn't help the Colts' cause; but it didn't help to be playing one of the top teams in the AFC. Tom Brady was his usual magnificent self (29 of 38, 293 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 115.4 rating), Wes Welker caught all 11 passes thrown his way (for 114 yards), and budding superstar Dan Gronkowski caught 5 passes for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns -- and he ran for a third.

Brady spread the ball around to seven receivers, completing important throws to Deion Branch and even getting one to Chad Ochocinco and another to newcomer Tiquan Underwood. The running backs gained just 73 yards total (3.0 yards per carry), and the load was also spread around pretty evenly among Stevan Ridley (8 carries for 33 yards), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (6 for 14), and Danny Woodhead (4 for 12).

The offensive line did a good job in pass protection, in concert with short passing routes and quick releases. Not much of a running game to speak of; but they did keep Brady mostly clean on the day. And their third center of the year, Nick MacDonald... well, he didn't screw up any of the snaps, so that's good.

On defense, Vince Wilfork dominated inside, with 10 tackles and a sack. Newly signed defensive back Nate Jones had 9 tackles, and wide receiver Matthew Slater tied tackling machine Jerod Mayo for third on the team with 7 (note: Mayo added a spectacular interception). Slater played safety for much of the game, and did a poor job in coverage but apparently a good job tackling.

Corner Devin McCourty returned from injury, but to mixed reviews. He gave up completions on plays where he was in position to knock the ball away, but it is his first game back, so he deserves some slack. At least he isn't coming back closer to the playoffs; which would magnify every mistake -- the timing of his return gives him a few weeks to round into shape.

Not much pass rush this week. Outside rushers Andre Carter and Mark Anderson totaled 3 tackles, 0 sacks, and 0 QB pressures between them. Oft-rushing linebacker Rob Ninkovich did better all by himself -- adding a sack and a QB pressure to his own 3 tackles. Overall, still no sign the Pats will have much of a pass rush in the post-season; unless they get better play in the secondary, and that depends on improvement by McCourty and the healthy return of safety Patrick Chung. 

Special teams have now recovered four consecutive onside kicks (including one called back for a penalty yesterday). Other than that, kicker Stephen Gostkowski had plenty of distance kicking with the wind and not enough against it. Punter Zoltan Mesko had an impressive 46.8 average; though he booted only one of them into the wind. And wide receiver (and defensive back) Julian Edelman makes very nifty moves on both punt and kickoff returns.

Nothing inspired about the coaching, except perhaps the experiment with Slater at safety. One hopes that doesn't mean Chung is out for the playoffs. 

So where does that leave us? As stated above, 9-3 and one win from a division title sounds like the right place to be in early-December. The game in Washington is unlikely to tell us much about the Patriots defense; but Mike Shanahan's crew has a good defense, so it's a chance for the Pats offense to test themselves again. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Colts QB Dan Orlovsky posted the best quarterback rating of his career (113.2). He'd never topped 100 before Sunday. 

Bonus Statistical Oddity: Can't verify this easily, but I believe Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne had a career high in tackles yesterday. He made two tackles, one on the Colts fumble, and the other on the Colts interception. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Packers and Niners get all the headlines, but the Pats clinch the AFC East with their next win."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  9-3!

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The Colts led the 9-3 Pittsburgh Steelers for just over four minutes.

Patriots Roar Back To Beat Eagles 38-20

The Patriots scored on multiple long drives to overcome an early deficit and emerge with a 38-20 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The win gives them effectively a three-game lead over their nearest division rivals (three games over Buffalo, two games and a tie-breaker over New York). And they enjoy a psuedo-bye with a "contest" against the absolutely pathetic, 0-11, Manning-less Colts. At home, at 1:00 for a change.

This one didn't look good at first, with a quick 10-0 lead for Philly on two quick-strike scoring drives. The defense was reeling, couldn't make a play, and on the second drive they were lucky to stop Philly for the field goal. But just when the game could have gotten out of hand and the defense needed some rest and time to regroup, the offense stepped up with a 12-play, 70-yard, 6:52 touchdown drive.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Patriots used that time to rest and make adjustments, and Philly scored on only two of their last nine possessions (including a garbage-time touchdown to make the score more respectable). The linebackers and secondary stopped going for play-action fakes, and combined with a Eagles' miscues (ill-timed penalties and dropped passes), the Pats rode a machine-like offense to an easy win.

The defensive line did a credible job up front all day; moving Eagles quarterback Vince Young around in the pocket without giving him too many big running plays. Inside linemen Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love applied pressure up the middle, while Andre Carter and Mark Anderson (and occasionally linebacker Rob Ninkovich) looped around the outside to keep Young in the pocket. Young made them pay with big plays early; but after making the necessary adjustments, the pressure harassed Young enough to knock him off his game.

The linebackers were confused and out of position early on -- biting on play-action fakes and leaving huge gaps in the defense. But once things settled down, they let the Eagles run; and of course, once the Patriots got a big lead, running the ball wasn't going to do it any more. Still without Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton (2 tackles) and special-teamer Tracy White (4) were pressed into service, and it showed. Both let backs and tight ends run away from them, but in their defense (no pun intended), they did battle to stop receivers short of first downs and competed on pass plays when they were close enough.

Ninkovich is blossoming, now that the defensive ends are getting pressure on the quarterbacks. He obviously does well on his first read, so when the opposing QB doesn't have time for a second- or third-read, Ninkovich looks a lot better. Jerod Mayo was uncharacteristically quiet (3 tackles), obviously affected by the active Eagles offensive line and plays that seriously took him into account. Pass coverage is not Mayo's strong suit; and it showed with a couple of coverage problems.

Julian Edelman helped the secondary immeasurably. That's right, the wide receiver -- he had a pressure that caused an incompletion late in the game, made a first-down-saving tackle with the game still in doubt, made a perfect tackle on Vince Young's attempted touchdown scramble, and shut down -- that's right -- shut down Eagles wideout DeSean Jackson. He covered Jackson three times that I saw, and each time Jackson couldn't shake free.

The other defensive backs were pretty good... after the first ten minutes or so. Kyle Arrington got beaten a few times, but had two passes defended and ten tackles. His compete-level is off the charts; I'd hate to play "chicken" with him, because he'd never give in. Antwaun Molden has played 43 NFL games, and he had his second pass defended and his first interception in this one. And the interception came in the second quarter, with the game still very much in doubt.

Bill Belichick said recently that even though the secondary players weren't drafted high and they didn't come from renowned schools, he'd go to battle with them. He stated that they take coaching, do what they are supposed to do, and compete hard on every play, and that is true of the whole crew. They might even help him to a 12-4 record. But even Belichick will feel a lot better if Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty return to the lineup.

On offense, it was another slow start for quarterback Tom Brady. He took some serious hits on the first drive, and the Patriots mixed in an effective running attack after that to slow down the Philadelphia pass rush. The stat sheet lists only one sack and two quarterback hits of Brady, but he got hit at least ten times in this game. However, you have to give the Patriots credit for using the run and the no-huddle to slow down the pass rush.

Brady had three spectacular plays that deserve special mention. On the first one, he made a free blitzer whiff and stepped up, directing Deion Branch down the sideline, and he completed the pass for 63 yards. On the second, he threw a perfect hardball pass to Wes Welker in the flat, and Welker turned quickly to reach out for the touchdown. The third was a perfect pass over the middle to tight end Rob Gronkowski, just after he broke free and just before the safety got in to break up the pass. On the day Brady completed 24 of 34 for 361 yards, 3 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 134.6 passer rating. He also had two scrambles (and two divots).

Welker (8 catches for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Branch (6 for 125) led the receivers, with tight ends Gronkowski (4 for 59 and 1) and Aaron Hernandez (6 for 62) doing their usual "matchup nightmare" thing. Philly is the third team to cover Gronkowski with their best corner (Nnamdi Asomugha in this case), but to no avail. And it looked like Brady could complete a pass to Hernandez whenever he wanted.

Branch and Welker were in total sync with the quarterback, a good thing as the team heads into December. However, a word of caution from someone who's seen this before. Completing passes to only four receivers is not a recipe for playoff success. The running backs and other receivers need to be more involved; because in the post-season, defenses are usually good enough to stop the #1 and sometimes #2 receivers.

Brady was also the second leading rusher, complementing BenJarvus Green-Ellis (14 carries for 44 yards). Danny Woodhead was more involved, and Shane Vereen got into the act late (7 for 18). Overall not a lot of production; but every running play was crucial, because they got enough yardage to keep the Eagles defense honest, and that slowed down the pass rush (which was killing  Brady early on).

The offensive line didn't do very well. Only 2.9 yards a rush, the aforementioned hits on Brady, and Brian Waters had his worst game since joining the team. Waters committed two consecutive holding penalties, he completely missed his man on a sweep, and at least two QB hits that were his fault. He has been rock-solid, so no doubt he'll improve again. One other O-line note: Ryan Wendell is the third player to start at center, and at least his snaps were perfect. 

Special teams didn't break one like last week. But most important of all, they neutralized the Philadelphia punt return game. DeSean Jackson can break one for a touchdown every return, but punter Zoltan Mesko kicked 'em high enough to get two fair catches. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski did miss another field goal -- this time from 39 yards. Something tells me he might be affected by the relative revolving-door at long snapper. The team has had three long snappers in the last three years -- two of them rookies.

The coaching during the week is a bit suspect, because of the slow starts. The Patriots hadn't scored a first-quarter touchdown in five games; and almost didn't score one yesterday. However, the offensive and defensive adjustments were outstanding during the game. Any time you are down 10-0 and then go on a 38-3 run, your coaches did a fine job of fixing what was wrong. 

So where does that leave us? An 8-3 record is good enough for a share of the lead for #1 seed in the AFC. As stated above, the Patriots have what amounts to a three-game lead in the division with five games to play. It isn't really a Bye week against the Colts; but the Patriots should handle them at home next Sunday. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Wide receiver Matthew Slater has one career reception and one career rush... and two fumbles lost. (Trivia question: name the only other non-quarterback on the Patriots 2011 roster with more than with more than one lost fumble... answer below.) 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Everyone said this game wouldn't show us much about the Patriots, but it did show the Pats coaches can out-adjust the best of 'em -- even Andy Reid.  Though it helps to be facing Vince Young."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  8-3!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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Longtime Patriots running back Kevin Faulk has lost 16 fumbles in his career, although he does have 1,567 touches.

PPPS.  Note on fumbles: current non-QBs on the Patriots have lost fumbles only 0.65% of the time they ran or received the ball. In 3,683 touches (in a Patriots uniform), they have just 24 fumbles -- here is a list of how it breaks down:
 

Kevin Faulk: 1567 touches, 16 fumbles lost (1%)

Wes Welker: 628, 1 (0.16%) 

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 503, 0 (0.0%) 

Deion Branch: 352, 1 (0.28%) 

Danny Woodhead : 210, 1 (0.48%)

Rob Gronkowski: 103, 1 (0.97%)

Julian Edelman: 121, 1 (0.83%)

Aaron Hernandez: 96, 1 (1.04%) 

Stevan Ridley: 50, 0  (0.0%) 

Matthew Slater: 27, 2 (7.41%) 

Shane Vereen: 15, 0 (0.0%)

Chad Ochocinco: 11, 0 (0.0%)

Sort of puts into perspective how disappointing Matthew Slater is.

Patriots Dispatch Chiefs With Ease, 34-3

Most everything looked easy for the Patriots in last night's 34-3 drubbing of the Kansas City Chiefs. The win gave the Pats a two-game cushion in the division over the reeling Buffalo Bills and slipping New York Jets. Next up is the Eagles in Philadelphia, on a short week that includes extra time off for Thanksgiving. No easy task; but of course, the Eagles have to deal with some of the same distractions, so it should all come out in the wash.

Not a whole lot to report; just about everything that could go right for the Pats did, and just about everything that could go wrong for the Chiefs did. The Chiefs won the first quarter 3-0, and the Patriots won the next three quarters 10-0, 17-0, and 7-0. Sometimes that's the way it goes, especially when your quarterback is starting his first NFL game at age 28.

Quarterback Tom Brady was held in check for most of the first half; getting sacked three times and harassed on many other plays will do that to you. Obviously old friend Romeo Crennel had some surprises for Brady, but once the Patriots figured out the defense, it was game over. The offensive line kept him clean the second half, and he finished with a 109.2 rating and 2 touchdowns to zero interceptions.

The running game was a bit of a mixed bag. There were lots of plays that got stuffed; but in the end, it totaled 157 yards on 35 carries (4.5 yards per rush). BenJarvus Green-Ellis (20 carries for 81 yards) led the way, while Danny Woodhead (5 for 27) got important yards on inside handoffs, and rookie Shane Vereen (8 for 39 and 1 touchdown) showed some nifty moves and moved the pile on a fourth-down run for a score.

The tight ends starred again among receivers. Aaron Hernandez (4 catches for 44 yards) caught two important passes on the first touchdown drive, and Rob Gronkowski (4 for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns) showed speed and moves on two touchdowns where he tiptoed along the sideline. The rest of the passing game was mostly an afterthought, though it was spread around evenly, which is usually a good sign.

Offensive line play was down in the first 20 minutes and then picked up to give Brady time at the end of the half and for the entire second half. That owed partially to more consistent running plays in the second half; although those also reflect well on the offensive line. Additionally, they did a nice job blocking on screen passes, which haven't gone very well in recent weeks; so that's an area of improvement.

Defensively the plan appeared to be stopping the run and forcing quarterback Tyler Palko, to beat them through the air. He did so on the Chiefs only scoring drive; but after that it was "Bad Palko." Secondary play confused him into holding the ball, which allowed the pressure to get to him, which forced bad throws, which gave the Patriots three interceptions. In other words, Palko couldn't handle the Patriots team defense.

Andre Carter and Mark Anderson brought the heat from the outside line positions, getting 0.5 and 1.5 sacks, respectively. Carter also blew up several running plays and a screen pass before they could get started. And Rob Ninkovich got the third sack of Palko, and also pressured him into his first interception. Note also that the sacks came at critical times, with the Chiefs trying to claw their way back into the game and the defense needing to come up big.

NFL interception leader Kyle Arrington got two of the easiest picks of his career, and unknown corner Phillip Adams got a total gift when Palko thew into quadruple coverage in the end zone.

The kick-return team should have been more ready for the onside kick; though the Chiefs blew it (as they did so much yesterday), so it didn't cost them. The Pats did give up a long punt return, though they got an even longer one back when Julian Edelman zigged and zagged his way through Kansas City for a 72-yard return touchdown.

The coaches made nice adjustments after the first quarter. And they did not get surprised/beaten by a young quarterback, which has often been the case the first time they see one (see Matt Shaub with Atlanta, Chad Henne with Miami, or Ben Roethlisberger with Pittsburgh).

So where does that leave us? A 7-3 record puts them currently atop the AFC, two full games ahead of Buffalo (with one remaining game with them) and essentially three ahead of New york (with tie breakers). The Eagles game will be no picnic; they have an explosive offense (for once you can believe Belichick when he says this), an opportunistic defense, and are desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Colts won ten games last year and have zero wins so far this year.  If they go winless, they will tie the record for the biggest single-season decline in wins in NFL history.  (Trivia question: name the team that currently holds that record.  Answer below.)

Bonus Statistical Oddity: The Patriots have outscored their opponents by an aggregate score of 93-3 in the two games my friend April has attended (last night, and the 59-0 destruction of Tennessee two years ago).  With that track record in mind, please let me know if you want to set up a fund to make sure she attends all future games (or at least playoff games).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I guess there's a reason Palko was starting his first NFL game at age 29."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-3!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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The Houston Oilers won 12 games in 1993 and just 2 games in 1994, which is the current "gold standard" for declining wins from one year to the next.  Maybe that's why the team doesn't even exist any more.

Patriots Outclass Jets in 37-16 Win

The Patriots defense (that's right the Patriots defense) dominated and the offense cashed in every opportunity, and the Patriots 37-16 road win re-proved they are the class of the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills lost along with the Jets, and that puts New England a full game up on the Bills and with essentially a two-game lead (with tie-breakers) over the Jets. Next week it's a Monday night tilt with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are fighting for their playoff life in the suddenly competitive AFC West.

The first half of this one was ugly until the last 4:44, when each team "exploded" for long touchdown drives to move the score from 6-2 to 13-9 at the half. But the Pats took over in the second half. They converted three turnovers into 17 points, held the Jets to a mere 7 in the entire half, and rode their impressive defense to a convincing win.

The defensive effort was even more unexpected given who missed the game and who left with injuries. Two rookie free agents started -- Sterling Moore at safety and Jeff Tarpinian at linebacker -- guys so unknown they hadn't even recorded an introduction for the Sunday Night crew. Pat Chung missed the game, which gave them almost no depth at safety, and the Pats had so few linebackers they were forced to go with a 4-3, even with injuries on the defensive line.

However, the defense responded, especially the much maligned pass rush. The defensive line got in the grill of Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez all day long; and no surprise Andre Carter led the way -- with 4.5 sacks (matching his total for the season) and 8 quarterback hits. He was joined at the quarterback by Mark Anderson, and blitzing linebackers and safeties forced Sanchez to throw quicker than he wanted (he completed just 51.2% of his passes)

Carter and Mark Anderson employed things often forbidden by Patriots coaches -- spin moves, twists, and stunts -- to get to the QB.For years the Pats insisted on a controlled pass rush, fearing that surprise running plays would gash them. But it seems to have sunk in that "gap control" just isn't working, and a nod of acknowledgment to the coaching staff for realizing it.  With Carter leading the way, the defensive line was around Sanchez all day long, moving him off his spot and forcing early throws for most of the game. Amazing how much better they played without Albert Haynesworth, who was cut this week.

Another oft-maligned group -- the linebackers -- had a pretty stellar performance, too, especially since only five of them dressed for the game. Rob Ninkovich notched the second two-interception game of his career, returning one for a game-icing touchdown. (Trivia question: name the year and opponent of his first two-INT game; answer below.) The rest of the linebackers didn't have the spectacular game Ninkovich did; but they had the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth most tackles on the night, and held up well enough against the run. They even helped pressure the quarterback, as noted above.

And the secondary... how to describe the desperation in the secondary? How about street free agent James Ihedigbo being the "seasoned veteran" at safety; or maybe Sterling Moore and Ross Ventron moving from the practice squad last Wednesday and Saturday (respectively) and playing significant time; or injuries forcing wide receiver Julian Edelman to play cornerback at the end of the game.

Under the circumstances, they held up pretty well. The Jets got just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, and at least two of the sacks and a few Sanchez scrambles were caused by good downfield coverage. Part of the credit goes to the coaches, who did a great job mixing blitzes and eight-man drops, confusing the Jets for just that extra moment the defense needed. 

The offense started slowly in the first half. Quarterback Tom Brady led them on two 50+ yard drives, hitting Chad OchoFinallyShowed on each one -- but both drives stalled and the Pats got just two field goals. But after the Jets scored to take a 9-6 lead, Brady drove right down the field for an answering touchdown. The Jets field the best pass defense by far (giving up an aggregate QB rating of 59.4), but Brady torched them in the second half, and ended the game 26 of 39 for 329 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 sacks, 0 interceptions, and a 118.4 rating.

Brady's favorite receiver was tight end Rob Gronkowski... and frankly, he'd be mine, too. His 6' 7" frame, great hands, and great routes make him a devastating matchup problem. He caught 8 passes for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns -- even all-world corner Darrelle Revis couldn't stop him. Wes Welker hae the quietest 6 catches (for 46 yards) of the year, and Chad Ochocinco finally contributed with two long receptions (for 65 yards).

The passes were distributed a lot more evenly this game, which is important going forward. With no legitimate deep threat, the Patriots can't let other teams key on one or two receivers -- i.e. Welker and Gronkowski. So it's encouraging to see Deion Branch grab 5 catches for 58 yards and an important touchdown, and Aaron Hernandez get 4 for 41 yards. 

Running back Danny Woodhead led the running game with 38 yards on 7 rushes. Other than that, not much to speak of, except for a clean Tom Brady; a credit to blocking backs, tight ends, and of course, the offensive line. It wasn't pretty -- there were injuries there, too -- but the line kept the quarterback upright, no sacks given up and no passes batted at the line of scrimmage. Center Dan Connolly blew a shotgun snap (tossing the ball to a very surprised Brady); but all-in-all not bad for a game with as much crowd noise complex blitzing as this one. 

Special teams had an up-and-down day; pouncing on a fumbled punt ("up") and giving up a few too many yards on kickoff returns ("down"). However, Stephen Gostkowski went 3-3 on field goals, while his counterpart missed a 24 yard attempt on the Jets first drive. Gostkowski probably empathized with Nick Folk on that play -- he missed a 27 yard kick last week.

And big ups to the Patriots coaching staff this week. They cut malcontent Haynesworth, trucked in secondary guys from nowhere and made it work, diversified the passing offense enough to put up 37 against one of the better defenses in the league, and even got Ochochino involved in the offense. 

So where does that leave us? 6-3 and on top of the division -- it has a familiar ring but it is a good ring. Buffalo appears to be fading, the Jets are now two-games behind the Pats (including tie-breakers), and the Patriots have the easiest remaining schedule in the entire league. Their run for the playoffs begins next week, against a Chiefs team that might be missing its quarterback (Matt Cassel apparently had a cast on his throwing hand as he left the stadium today). In other words... for the moment, life is good. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Believe it or not, the Jets and Patriots are giving up the exact same number of points per game this season (22.2). 

Bonus Statistical Oddity: In four games against the Patriots this year, teams from New York (Jets twice, Giants, and Bills) scored an average of 6.5 points in the first half. But the Patriots are only 2-2 in those games. 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I think Bart Scott's the one with the nosebleed now!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  6-3!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
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Rob Ninkovich had two interceptions in the Patriots 41-14 victory at Miami last year (October 4, 2010).

Giants Get Last Laugh in 24-20 Win

The Patriots couldn't cash in first half opportunities, and let a late lead slip through their fingers, ultimately losing to 24-20 on a very late Giants touchdown. Their 5-3 record puts them in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East, and they are on a two-game losing streak for the first time in two years. Next up is the other entry from NYC, the 5-3 Jets in New York. Should be a barn-burner.


It might be time to face a sad fact about the Pats -- they might be one of the many 50-50 teams in the NFL. Those are teams that beat up on bad teams, but when they get in close contests with good teams, they are no better than a 50-50 shot to win. They used to close out games like that with regularity; but their last four games that fit the bill and they are 2-2. The 2003 and 2004 seasons seem like a long time ago.


Even though the first half featured exactly zero points by both teams combined, it was really where the Patriots lost the game. The offense had no flow or tempo, and their best chances to take a lead were a 54-yard drive that ended in a Tom Brady interception and an 83-yard drive that ended with a missed 27-yard field goal. In a game where points were at such a premium, six or ten points would have made a huge difference.


Brady didn't help matters much when the Patriots got the ball to start the second half, throwing an interception on the first drive. He fumbled on the next possession, but the fault there lies with the offensive line. On the day, Brady was a very pedestrian 28 of 49 for 342 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He was harassed by the Giants pass rush much of the day, and looked confused and frustrated as New York alternated blitzes with eight-man drops and tight man-to-man with zone and zone-blitz.


The offensive line was just as confused, and probably just as often beaten physically. The official statistics only list three quarterback hits, but it seemed like Brady was throwing just before a big hit about one-third of the dropbacks. They also let up two sacks and the pressure led to both interceptions (and of course to the fumble). They did block for a running game that got 4.4 yards a carry, and they get credit for that, so it wasn't all bad.


BenJarvus Green-Ellis led the running backs with 12 carries for 52 yards. It wasn't all pretty; but he made some nice moves, especially hopping over defenders twice to get first downs on third-and-short. Both Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead looked pretty effective in the passing game, too, and it's a mystery why they weren't featured more, especially given the Giants success at shutting down the main pass receivers.


And speaking of receivers, it is really the Wes Welker (9 catches for 136 yards) and Rob Gronkowski (8 for 101 and 1 touchdown) show at this point. Deion Branch (2 for 21) can't seem to beat single coverage, and Aaron Hernandez (4 for 35) appears to be struggling to get back to full speed after his knee injury. And don't get me started on Chad OchoNoShow (credit for the nickname to Allan "The Foxboro Weather God") -- why they bothered targeting him five times is beyond me. Taylor Price was out with an injury; maybe they thought Ocho would provide something of a deep threat. As usual this season, they were disappointed.


The defense played well enough to expect a win. People will probably focus on the last two drives (that both ended in touchdowns) because... well, because they can't bring themselves to blame Brady and the offense. But the defense pitched a first half shutout without benefit of a turnover, held the Giants scoreless on 9 of 13 possessions, got a key interception when New York was about to take a two-score lead, and held the Giants to 29% on third down conversions. A wasted effort; but even with the 24 points given up, this loss is not on the defense.


The defensive line received an unexpected boost from the return of Brandon Deaderick (#71 on your scorecard). He played at least half the time and did a very good job collapsing the pocket on Giants QB Eli Manning. In fact, he, Andre Carter, and Vince Wilfork did a decent job moving Manning off the spot, and they hit him a lot after the pass. Carter gets more and more double-teams, and even Rob Ninkovich got in the act with some QB pressure. Unfortunately no sacks on the day; but they had him on the run like they should have. And they were also instrumental in holding the vaunted Giants running game to 3.8 yards a carry.


Even with Ninkovich's improved play, the linebackers are a real problem. The issue of depth was never addressed in the off-season, and it's coming home to roost now. Jerod Mayo is back and he played okay yesterday, though he's obviously not 100%. Brandon Spikes actually lived up to his billing, making tackles and forcing action with well-timed blitzes. But after that, there's no one to take up the slack.  Spikes was injured in the second half, and the Giants feasted on Gary Guyton in coverage. And when Guyton went down too, special teamer Tracy White gave up the final touchdown.


This area of the defense was thin to start with, and injuries have made it a real problem. It's probably not premature to call Mayo injury-prone (though he is a fast healer). Spikes is a legitimate starter but Guyton and Ninkovich are limited in pass coverage. Meanwhile, OLBs Jermaine Cunningham and Mark Anderson are mostly pass-rush specialists, and Cunningham hasn't been seen much this year. It is very difficult to put together a good defense with one unit this undermanned.


And speaking of undermanned, how about that secondary. Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington are actually holding their own these days, both improving from earlier in the year (not that there was anywhere to go but up). But Arrington is feast or famine, getting a key interception to keep the game within reach and then giving up a 35-yard penalty and a touchdown two drives later. And it is not helping that journeymen Phillip Adams and Sergio Brown are out there -- both gave up plays in the Giants furious fourth quarter.


The safety position would look a lot better with James Sanders next to Patrick Chung. But the team cut Sanders just before they cut another 2010 starter, Brandon Meriweather. If their backup plan was Sergio Brown, James Ihedigbo, and Josh Barrett, then the braintrust over there needs to have its collective head examined. The team could get away with one bad unit, but both the linebackers and secondary need serious help. And it doesn't appear that help is on the way.


Special teams could have played better, and pretty easily. If Gostkowski hit his 27-yard field goal or if Julian Edelman didn't fumble on a punt return, the Pats might have snuck out of town with a win. But in a game this close, you can't have simple, correctable mistakes like that. The Patriots did, and it cost them.


As for the coaching, where were the screen passes or draw plays to slow down the pass rush? Why not throw to running backs over the middle, at least until the Giants stopped it? After the first hideous pass route by OchoNoShow, why throw his way four more times? In the first half, you had a fourth-and-one and a fourth-and-two -- why not just admit that you don't have a fake punt in the playbook?


So where does that leave us? 5-3 is on pace for 10-6 -- which was the Giants regular-season record the year they beat us in the Super Bowl. So that's cause for hope, right? Well, maybe not. In any event, the suddenly formidable Jets are up next, as the Patriots try to avoid their first three-game losing streak since... can you name the year, and perhaps even the teams? (Answer below.)


Statistical Oddity of the Week: The last three games, Tom Brady led the team to 20 points or fewer. The last time that happened was weeks 6 - 8 of the 2003 season.  Note: the Patriots won all three games in 2003.


Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe the blueprint is closer than ever; play tight man-coverage and redirect receivers at the line. Time for the geniuses at Patriots Place to make some adjustments."


Keep the faith,


- Scott


PS.  5-3!


PPS.  Trivia Answer:
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The Patriots lost four straight games in 2002: 21-14 to San Diego, 26-13 to Miami, 28-10 to Green Bay, and 24-16 to Denver.

Steelers Decipher (and Defeat) Patriots, 25-17

It was bound to happen eventually, and yesterday it did -- he Pittsburgh Steelers found a way to beat Tom Brady.  The Steelers notched a convincing 25-17 win and in the process vaulted to the head of the AFC pack with six wins.  The loss set the Patriots back to 5-2 and into a tie with the victorious Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East.  The 5-2 New York Giants come to town next week, so things don't look like they are getting much easier.

There is a lot to tell about this game; but frankly not much about the Patriots, who had too many defensive breakdowns to mention and did virtually nothing on offense except for one long drive.  So not as much detail on specific players this week, but more about how the Steelers changed their stripes to deliver a decisive win.

The Pittsburgh Offense had been inflexible over the years.  They would often try to establish physical dominance rather than adjust schemes that weren't working.  But not yesterday.  With improved deep threats at wide receiver, they spread out the Patriots defense to force match- ups and they took what the defense gave them.

Ask tight end Heath Miller about the results, if he ever comes back down from cloud nine.  Miller caught 7 passes for 85 yards, both career highs against the Patriots.  He repeatedly gashed them right down the middle, and he totaled five first downs (four on the first drive) and forced defensive adjustments that allowed his team to complete long throws to wide open receivers.

Give the Steelers offensive coaching staff credit for changing an old system that did not work.  They had five drives of 10+ plays each and held the ball for 39:22 (almost two-thirds of the game).  And they caused almost as much confusion and as many mental mistakes as the Saints did in their 2009 embarrassment of the Patriots, and that game had an epic series of breakdowns.

The Steelers defense used to play almost exclusively zone against the Patriots, and they would hold off blitzing until they had the Pats in stressful down-and-distance situations.  And predictably, Tom Brady would shred them with short gains that kept the chains moving and sustained drives.

But in yesterday's game, the Steelers unveiled something that appeared to take a page from Buddy Ryan's old "46" defense.  It's been years since I saw 10 men across the line of scrimmage that often; and though the Steelers didn't blitz as much as Ryan did from the formation, they slowed down and redirected receivers at the line to disrupt pass patterns.

The plan worked beautifully.  Even though Brady completed 68.5% of his passes, he was sacked three times and threw for just 198 yards.  And perhaps most important, the Patriots couldn't sustain drives.  Their only first-half touchdown was 2 play, 8 yard "drive."  They somehow had a drive with 9 plays and only 11 yards gained.  And their only sustained drive in the first half ended with a field goal.  And when they came out in the second half, with a chance to tie the game, they went three-and-out.

And in a stunning development, the Steelers special teams actually outplayed the Patriots.  They had better kickoff returns (averaging 27 yards to 18.5) and hit 75% of their field goals to the Patriots 50%.

As for the Patriots, there is mostly blame everywhere, but there were a few bright spots.  Kevin Faulk returned from a devastating 2010 knee injury, and he started and played well (though I suspect he missed a blitzer late in the game -- Brady stopped over for a chat with Faulk after the play).  Rob Gronkowski continues to impress, and safety Sergio Brown made one or two nice plays.

Jerod Mayo got back on the field, and looked a little rusty, even though he's a marked improvement over Gary Guyton (interception notwithstanding).  Andre Carter is becoming their one pass rushing threat -- he had two sacks and a QB hit on Sunday.  And even though their names are rarely on people's lips, both Kyle Love and Vince Wilfork do great work inside.  Still little pressure on the QB (though each got a sack yesterday), but it is tough to run through that middle.

One other encouraging note is how many times Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had to hold the ball beyond his initial reads.  Three of the sacks were caused by great coverage, and Roethlisberger often had to pull the ball back down and look for a different receiver.  So maybe the secondary can make a play or two -- though this in no way absolves them from their  multiple breakdowns.  But if there's hope for the season, it lies in the current players improving.  And some of them are showing that improvement -- now they need consistency.

Also note that with all that went wrong, this was still a winnable game.  Pittsburgh got a late first down by half-a-football, and the Patriots could have saved another minute on the clock if they'd challenged an incorrect call on a Rob Gronkowski touchdown.  So all is not lost; at least not yet.  But the NFL is a copy-cat league, and the Giants are sure to try the same plan when they come to town next week.  Time to start working on some answers.

So where does that leave us?  5-2 isn't bad, but with the Jets and Bills playing well, it is getting crowded in the AFC East.  The Giants have the defensive front to give the Patriots trouble; but bear in mind that New York barely (and I mean barely) beat the awful Miami Dolphins yesterday.  So even at 5-2, the Giants might not pose the threat one would expect.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Buffalo Bills have only four shutouts against NFC opponents in franchise history.  The "oddity" part is that all the shutouts have come when the date has doubles at the end of the year.  They shut out an NFC team in 1977, 1988, 1999, and 2011.  (Big... BIG props to anyone who can name the teams without looking -- answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Looks like the Steelers are finally sick of Tom Brady kicking sand in their face."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  5-2!

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Atlanta Falcons in 1977 (3-0), Green Bay Packers in 1988 (28-0), Philadelphia Eagles in 1999 (26-0), and Washington in 2011 (23-0).

New Look Steelers Could Finally Give Patriots Trouble

At first glance, Patriots versus Steelers looks like an exercise in frustration for Pittsburgh.  The games are often close, but since Pittsburgh beat the Patriots on Halloween 2004, they are 1-4 versus New England, the only win coming over the Matt Cassel-led team in 2008.

However, the Steelers are writing a new script this year, and the Patriots defense is in transition at just the wrong time.  So past patterns might not have as much play this Sunday.  Here are three reasons the match-up is intriguing.

1.  Mismatch for Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Wallace versus the Patriots secondary.

The Steelers haven’t really been a run-first team since 2005, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s second season.  But their passing game has mostly been short to mid-range throws, with occassional long bombs on plays extended by Roethlisberger.  Without a significant deep threat, the Patriots regularly put extra men near the line of scrimmage, making it tougher for the Steelers to run or pass.

However, this year Pittsburgh sports a real deep threat in wide receiver Mike Wallace.  His yards per game are up about 33%, from 78.6 last year to 104.3 this season, and he scored the two longest touchdowns of his career (81 and 95 yards) in the first seven games.  Wallace always averaged about 20 yards a catch, but his increased yardage and quick-strike touchdowns -- coupled with Roethlisberger’s ability to extend plays -- have opposing teams defending the entire field for a change.

Additionally, the Patriots secondary remains a real problem.  Inexperience at safety has caused communication breakdowns and easy completions and touchdowns.  The team waived cornerback Leigh Bodden during the bye week, leaving scrappy Kyle Arrington and slumping Devin McCourty to cover against outside receivers.  All of which means the Patriots will either double-team Wallace (and leave other receivers open) or take their chances with single coverage (and risk big plays).

2.  Mismatch for New England: Tom Brady versus the Steelers defense.

This mismatch isn’t theoretical (like the first one); Patriots quarterback Tom Brady feasts on the Steelers defense.  For years Pittsburgh has played sound fundamentals and didn’t change the defense much from week to week.  They just played their system extremely well, and the results have been excellent.

Unfortunately for them, Brady exploits holes in their zone coverage, and he is outstanding at reading the blitz and completing passes before it gets to him.  So playing the same defense against Brady doesn’t work.  Need statistical proof... Brady’s QB rating the last four games against the Steelers are as follows: 130.5, 92.7, 125.2, and 117.4 -- gaudy numbers against a one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

The other trend working against Pittsburgh is that Brady threw three interceptions in one of those games, and zero in the other three games combined.  The Steelers will need to win the turnover battle on Sunday, and that means confusing and hitting Tom Brady -- which they haven’t done lately.

3.  Something has to give: Patriots post-bye offense versus Pittsburgh’s first quarter defense.

After a bye week, the Patriots offense used to be awful to begin the next game.  In the first six years under Bill Belichick, they averaged less than a field goal (2.72 points) in the first quarter of games after a bye.  Something needed to change, and it did; in the last five years they are much improved, averaging 9.13 points in the first quarter of post-bye games.

Then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who give up an average of just 3.42 points in the first quarter this year -- and a microscopic average of 1.67 points in the first quarter over the last six weeks.  Clearly one of these trends has to give, and the team that continues its trend will have a leg up in going for the win.

Also note that the Patriots are very likely to be kicking off to start the game.  They always defer if they win the toss, and if Pittsburgh wins, they are likely to want the ball first to keep the Patriots offense off the field.  This factor plays in the Steelers’ favor as far as the first-quarter scoring trend goes.