It might be time to face a sad fact about the Pats -- they might be one of the many 50-50 teams in the NFL. Those are teams that beat up on bad teams, but when they get in close contests with good teams, they are no better than a 50-50 shot to win. They used to close out games like that with regularity; but their last four games that fit the bill and they are 2-2. The 2003 and 2004 seasons seem like a long time ago.
Even though the first half featured exactly zero points by both teams combined, it was really where the Patriots lost the game. The offense had no flow or tempo, and their best chances to take a lead were a 54-yard drive that ended in a Tom Brady interception and an 83-yard drive that ended with a missed 27-yard field goal. In a game where points were at such a premium, six or ten points would have made a huge difference.
Brady didn't help matters much when the Patriots got the ball to start the second half, throwing an interception on the first drive. He fumbled on the next possession, but the fault there lies with the offensive line. On the day, Brady was a very pedestrian 28 of 49 for 342 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He was harassed by the Giants pass rush much of the day, and looked confused and frustrated as New York alternated blitzes with eight-man drops and tight man-to-man with zone and zone-blitz.
The offensive line was just as confused, and probably just as often beaten physically. The official statistics only list three quarterback hits, but it seemed like Brady was throwing just before a big hit about one-third of the dropbacks. They also let up two sacks and the pressure led to both interceptions (and of course to the fumble). They did block for a running game that got 4.4 yards a carry, and they get credit for that, so it wasn't all bad.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis led the running backs with 12 carries for 52 yards. It wasn't all pretty; but he made some nice moves, especially hopping over defenders twice to get first downs on third-and-short. Both Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead looked pretty effective in the passing game, too, and it's a mystery why they weren't featured more, especially given the Giants success at shutting down the main pass receivers.
And speaking of receivers, it is really the Wes Welker (9 catches for 136 yards) and Rob Gronkowski (8 for 101 and 1 touchdown) show at this point. Deion Branch (2 for 21) can't seem to beat single coverage, and Aaron Hernandez (4 for 35) appears to be struggling to get back to full speed after his knee injury. And don't get me started on Chad OchoNoShow (credit for the nickname to Allan "The Foxboro Weather God") -- why they bothered targeting him five times is beyond me. Taylor Price was out with an injury; maybe they thought Ocho would provide something of a deep threat. As usual this season, they were disappointed.
The defense played well enough to expect a win. People will probably focus on the last two drives (that both ended in touchdowns) because... well, because they can't bring themselves to blame Brady and the offense. But the defense pitched a first half shutout without benefit of a turnover, held the Giants scoreless on 9 of 13 possessions, got a key interception when New York was about to take a two-score lead, and held the Giants to 29% on third down conversions. A wasted effort; but even with the 24 points given up, this loss is not on the defense.
The defensive line received an unexpected boost from the return of Brandon Deaderick (#71 on your scorecard). He played at least half the time and did a very good job collapsing the pocket on Giants QB Eli Manning. In fact, he, Andre Carter, and Vince Wilfork did a decent job moving Manning off the spot, and they hit him a lot after the pass. Carter gets more and more double-teams, and even Rob Ninkovich got in the act with some QB pressure. Unfortunately no sacks on the day; but they had him on the run like they should have. And they were also instrumental in holding the vaunted Giants running game to 3.8 yards a carry.
Even with Ninkovich's improved play, the linebackers are a real problem. The issue of depth was never addressed in the off-season, and it's coming home to roost now. Jerod Mayo is back and he played okay yesterday, though he's obviously not 100%. Brandon Spikes actually lived up to his billing, making tackles and forcing action with well-timed blitzes. But after that, there's no one to take up the slack. Spikes was injured in the second half, and the Giants feasted on Gary Guyton in coverage. And when Guyton went down too, special teamer Tracy White gave up the final touchdown.
This area of the defense was thin to start with, and injuries have made it a real problem. It's probably not premature to call Mayo injury-prone (though he is a fast healer). Spikes is a legitimate starter but Guyton and Ninkovich are limited in pass coverage. Meanwhile, OLBs Jermaine Cunningham and Mark Anderson are mostly pass-rush specialists, and Cunningham hasn't been seen much this year. It is very difficult to put together a good defense with one unit this undermanned.
And speaking of undermanned, how about that secondary. Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington are actually holding their own these days, both improving from earlier in the year (not that there was anywhere to go but up). But Arrington is feast or famine, getting a key interception to keep the game within reach and then giving up a 35-yard penalty and a touchdown two drives later. And it is not helping that journeymen Phillip Adams and Sergio Brown are out there -- both gave up plays in the Giants furious fourth quarter.
The safety position would look a lot better with James Sanders next to Patrick Chung. But the team cut Sanders just before they cut another 2010 starter, Brandon Meriweather. If their backup plan was Sergio Brown, James Ihedigbo, and Josh Barrett, then the braintrust over there needs to have its collective head examined. The team could get away with one bad unit, but both the linebackers and secondary need serious help. And it doesn't appear that help is on the way.
Special teams could have played better, and pretty easily. If Gostkowski hit his 27-yard field goal or if Julian Edelman didn't fumble on a punt return, the Pats might have snuck out of town with a win. But in a game this close, you can't have simple, correctable mistakes like that. The Patriots did, and it cost them.
As for the coaching, where were the screen passes or draw plays to slow down the pass rush? Why not throw to running backs over the middle, at least until the Giants stopped it? After the first hideous pass route by OchoNoShow, why throw his way four more times? In the first half, you had a fourth-and-one and a fourth-and-two -- why not just admit that you don't have a fake punt in the playbook?
So where does that leave us? 5-3 is on pace for 10-6 -- which was the Giants regular-season record the year they beat us in the Super Bowl. So that's cause for hope, right? Well, maybe not. In any event, the suddenly formidable Jets are up next, as the Patriots try to avoid their first three-game losing streak since... can you name the year, and perhaps even the teams? (Answer below.)
Statistical Oddity of the Week: The last three games, Tom Brady led the team to 20 points or fewer. The last time that happened was weeks 6 - 8 of the 2003 season. Note: the Patriots won all three games in 2003.
Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe the blueprint is closer than ever; play tight man-coverage and redirect receivers at the line. Time for the geniuses at Patriots Place to make some adjustments."
Keep the faith,
- Scott
PS. 5-3!
PPS. Trivia Answer:
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The Patriots lost four straight games in 2002: 21-14 to San Diego, 26-13 to Miami, 28-10 to Green Bay, and 24-16 to Denver.
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