Patriots Outlast Eagles 17-10

New England gave up two first-quarter scores, then scored 17 unanswered points to take a road win in Philly, 17-10. The win put them at 9-1, still a game up on Baltimore and two games up on the Bills for the division lead. Next week the Cowboys ride into town for a tussle at Gillette Stadium.

For the second straight game, the opponent came out of their Bye week with a good initial plan. The Ravens started out 17-0 and won by 17 points. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they started out 10-0 but couldn't sustain it. The Pats made adjustments and shut down Philly the rest of the game.

It seems that good teams can attack the Patriots defense early, especially if they have two weeks to prepare. That might not seem like much of a problem. But remember; the Patriots are in position to have a playoff Bye, which is a two-week break. And the Super Bowl (if they get that far) is played after two weeks off.

IMO, the team has to do a better job of defensive preparation to begin games. In the games against Baltimore and Philadelphia, they allowed 27 points in the first quarters and 20 total points in the other quarters combined. That might not cost them in the regular season, but it will against good teams in the playoffs.

As for this game, the defense adjusted and played very well after the first quarter. The offense did decent in the mid-game, scoring on four straight drives. But even though they made that stand up, they were much too inconsistent on offense.

The offensive line played poorly most of the game. And the pressure caused missed throws by QB Tom Brady and first-half running problems. There were also wrong routes by several receivers (Jacobi Meyers and Sony Michel specifically), and blown up screen passes, any of which could have led to interceptions.

The good news on offense is that both Rex Burkhead and Ben Watson get more involved with each passing week. Also, rookies Meyers and N'Keal Harry are at least trusted enough to contribute occasional receptions for first downs. And the protection and run-blocking should look better when tackle Isaiah Wynn returns from injured reserve next week. Should; but no guarantees.

A sign that the team is spreading the ball around is that only Julian Edelman had double-digit targets (10 exactly). That also bodes well heading into the stretch run. Oh, and Edelman also had the only touchdown pass of the game, to Phillip Dorsett on a double-pass.

The defensive adjustments were excellent. After the first three drives, the team double-teamed on tight end Zach Ertz and that at least limited the damage he did. And the tight man-coverage forced quarterback Carson Wentz to hold the ball an extra second and read deep into his progressions.

The result was five sacks for 40 yards and just 50% completions. After their initial scoring surge, the Eagles punted seven times, lost a fumble, turned it over on downs, and the game ended.

Secondary play was very good against everyone except Ertz. New(ish)comer Terrence Brooks tied for the team lead with seven tackles and he knocked down two passes and had two QB pressures to boot. The team benefited from some missed throws by Wentz and dropped passes. But overall they did a great job adjusting in-game.

Along the line, defensive tackle Danny Shelton merits special mention. He also had seven tackles, a rarity for a Patriots interior lineman. He also had a sack, a QB pressure, and forced the game's only fumble -- which the Pats recovered and turned into a field goal.

Special teams played a big role in the win. New kicker Nick Folk hit three of three field goals. And punter Jake Bailey had six kicks downed inside the 20. That field position forced the Eagles to go a long field too many times -- and they could only convert one of those long-fields into points.

As for the coaching, the defensive adjustments were excellent, and the offensive play-calling was very good. The offensive execution wasn't great, but some of that was probably rust from the week off, and some of it was also working in new players. Josh McDaniels has some work left to do with this group.

Where does this leave us? 9-1 and atop the AFC isn't half-bad for a team with so much local media gnashing of teeth. The kicking game and defense are in fine shape. It remains to be seen if the offense can score enough once the January games begin. Next up are the Cowboys. And I still think their QB, Dak Prescott, is about to learn how tough it is to play a Belichick defense for the first time.

Biggest on-going concern: It has to be the offensive line. The team is involving more and more receivers every week. But they can't run and the backside pressure is getting to Brady far too often.

Non-Brady MVP: A three-way tie between Bailey, Brooks, and Edelman. One from each phase of the game... wouldn't BB be proud :D

Statistical oddity: For all the consternation about the Miami Dolphins "tanking" this season, head coach Brian Flores has the same record in his first 10 games as Bill Belichick did in his first 10 games with the Patriots: 2-8.

Bonus oddity: Julian Edelman has a career QB rating of 158.3 -- which is the highest you can record, a "perfect" QB rating.

Water-cooler wisdom: "The Pats have to lose two more games to get knocked out of a playoff Bye. And I don't see two more losses on the schedule."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-1!

Pats Top Washington Easily, 33-7

The Patriots pulled away in the second half for an easy victory in Washington, 33-7. Their 5-0 record keeps them atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the 4-1 Bills. Next up are the New York Giants, on a short week, this Thursday night in Foxboro.

Often there isn't much to learn from blowout wins. But there was today.

After the game, Tom Brady was understandably unhappy with the offensive performance in the first half. They came out throwing, and throwing, and throwing. Brady threw a personal high 31 passes in the first half, and the offensive imbalance led to neither a high completion percentage nor a great QB rating. He had one TD but also one INT in the first half.

And suddenly in the second half, it was all run all the time. They fed the ball to Sony Michel, James White, and even special teamer Brandin Bolden. After 7 rushing attempts in the first half, the Pats rushed 20 times after halftime.

What all this tells me is that they themselves don't know their offensive identity yet. They hoped to have Antonio Brown to stretch and challenge defenses, but that didn't work out. Then they wanted to be a run-first team, but their starting center, left guard, and blocking back all got injured.

They lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement, and they've gotten very little production out of the tight end position. And I think they used this game as a test run; to see what they have in the different phases. (Or maybe they tried testing the passing game first, but when the game was only 12-7 at they half they decided to win it.)

Additionally, the offensive line is having trouble protecting Brady. But that doesn't excuse his two horrendous red-zone interceptions the past two weeks. Take the sack or throw it away, TB12, but don't give the ball away when points are on the line.

At the moment they'd be lost without Julian Edelman. He wasn't perfect on Sunday, but his 8 catches (110 yards and 1 TD) five first downs (one by penalty -- a big 40-yarder) were crucial. It's no surprise they won recent Super Bowls without Gronkowski but not without Edelman; he is the indispensable cog in the machine.

Over the next few weeks it'll be interesting to see who steps up at receiver. Everyone knows Edelman, White, and Gordon are there; but who will make the big catches when those guys are covered? If I had to guess, it would be Ryan Izzo or Jacobi Meyers. But at this point, it's still a guess.

On defense, they caused two more turnovers; an interception by Jason McCourty and a fumble recovery by Jamie Collins. But there wasn't much to learn on defense yesterday; we already knew they were great. However, it's starting to look like they could be historically great.

The 2000 Baltimore Ravens hold the record for fewest points allowed in a 16-game season, and the Patriots are ahead of their pace. The Ravens gave up 10.3 points per game; the Patriots so far have given up 6.8 points per game. And after five games, the Ravens had given up 55 points, while the Pats have given up just 34.

Now the Patriots still have to face the Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, and those same Ravens. Those are some potent offenses. However, they also face the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills again, who mustered 10 total points against the defense (the Jets got 14 on defense and special teams). But it's interesting to note where this defense stands historically at the moment.

The kicking game is shaky though. Stephen Gostkowki's replacement, Mike Nugent, pushed an extra point wide, and then hit the upright on another one that ended up going through. The Patriots also eschewed the field goal after the first PAT miss, opting to go for it instead on fourth-and-one. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the kicker. If they haven't sorted this out in a few weeks, expect them to bring in another kicker for competition.

On the other hand, the punting has been excellent, and the team has been validated for letting go of longtime punter Ryan Allen. Jake Bailey is tied for the second-most punts downed inside the 20 yard-line (12 of them). And he hits them out of bounds often, neutralizing the other teams return game.

No commentary on the coaching except this little tidbit: apparently Bill Belichick himself is calling the defensive signals. Apparently he wasn't happy with how that went in the preseason, with Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick sharing that duty. So he took it over.

Where does that leave us? 5-0 is good for now, and the schedule doesn't really start to get tough for another few weeks. Hopefully the hamstring injury to Phillip Dorsett doesn't keep him out for long.

Biggest on-going concern: Lack of targets in the red zone. The Pats really struggled when they got deep in the red zone. They used to have Gronkowski and Edelman, both of whom demanded double-coverage. But without Gronk, the rest of the field isn't quite as open as it used to be.

Non-Brady MVP: Dont'a Hightower. Led the team in tackles (8), sacks (1.5 for 10.5 yards), tackles for a loss (4), QB pressures (2), and even threw in a pass defended. That would probably make him the non-QB MVP in almost any game this year!

Statistical Oddity: The Patriots lead the league in sacks with 24, putting them on a pace for 77 on the season, which would break the NFL record. (Trivia: which team set that record? Answer below.)

The reason it's an oddity -- the Patriots have never led the league in sacks since the stat became official in 1982. Not. One. Damned. Year!

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Nice to get a win, but it'll be weeks before we learn much about the team."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-0!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The 1984 Chicago Bears set the record with 72 sacks in 1984. The next year, they won the Super Bowl, over the upstarts from Foxboro :(

Eagles Top Patriots 41-33 for Super Bowl LII Victory

The Patriots defense chose a bad time to revert to opening-day form (remember the KC game?). They allowed Philadelphia to score on eight of ten possessions en route to a 41-33 score that gave the Eagles their first Super Bowl championship. The loss puts the Patriots at 5-5 in Super Bowls, with Brady/Belichick sitting at 5-3 since the beginning of this century.

The Pats actually lost this game four times, and only three of them happened yesterday.

The first time they lost it was when they failed to replace two linebackers who left the team in the previous year. Jamie Collins was traded to Cleveland in 2016 and Rob Ninkovich retired during the 2017 training camp. And the Patriots did nothing to shore up their linebackers, who got torched repeatedly yesterday, giving up big plays in the passing and running games.

They had ample opportunities to add a linebacker or two. The team could have added depth during training camp or any time up to the trading deadline (October 31). In fact, when they traded QB Jimmy Garoppolo for a 49ers second-round pick, I wrote that I'd be happy if they turned around the pick to improve at linebacker. By then already knew that their only decent starter, Dont'a Hightower, was done for the year. IMO, it was malpractice not to improve at linebacker, because it was their biggest weakness.

The second time they lost was at 6:30pm EST last night, when they decided to play Eric Rowe at corner instead of Malcolm Butler. Butler had been ill during the week, but reportedly he didn't play defense last night because they coaches thought Rowe was a better choice.

That was okay, until they saw Rowe get beaten repeatedly. Once that happened, they needed to forget whatever message they were sending to Butler and put him in. But he remained on the sideline (except for special teams), despite playing over 97% of the defensive snaps this season.

The third time they lost was the trade of passes to the teams' quarterbacks. Tom Brady failed to catch a pass thrown to him, one that was an easy grab. That drop led to a failed fourth-down conversion, giving the Eagles a short field which they converted to a touchdown. If Brady caught the throw, they would have been at least in field goal range, but could easily have converted it to a touchdown (would have been first-down at the Eagles' 20-25 yard line).

A score there would have made it either 9-6 Eagles or 10-9 Patriots. Instead, Philly went down the field and made it 15-3, a much worse deficit.

Later that quarter the Eagles went for it on fourth-and-goal at the two-yard line, and ran a trick play where they threw to their QB, Nick Foles. Of course the pass was complete, and the halftime score was 22-12 instead of being much, much closer. (The missed field goal and extra point didn't help, but that drop by Brady was huge.)

The fourth time they lost it was the strip-sack of Brady at 2:10 left in the game. The Pats had just let up a touchdown, but it was only a five-point deficit. The Patriots had the ball at the 33-yard line with 2:16 left and a timeout in their pocket, 67 yards from a win.

And on that play, immediately at the snap, James White was wide, wide open in the flat for an easy 10+ yard pickup by the sideline. If Brady throws it to White, it's first down at the 40-45 yard line with over 2:00 left in the game.

But he held the ball, trying to go deep, and was sacked and lost the ball. When Philly recovered, I texted several friends that was the ballgame. Best realistic possibility at that point was an eight-point deficit with 60 seconds left and the ball at the 25-yard line and no timeouts. A much worse situation than the one they had before the fumble by Brady.

In the past, TB12 would always take the short throw and live to play another down. Only he knows why he decided to hold it there. But a completion to White would have ramped up the pressure on the Eagles and that is exactly the situation where the other teams usually collapse. Not this time; instead the Pats lost the ball and the game.

The offense played plenty well enough to win overall. Brady was mostly excellent (with a few unexplainable clunker throws in there), the receivers were very good, especially after losing Bradin Cooks, and Brady wasn't under much pressure in the game.

It was curious how often they split out the running backs as receivers, as I thought all week the best way to attack with the RBs was to throw to them out of the backfield. And three receivers had over 100 yards, Rob Gronkowski (116), Danny Amendola (152), and Chris Hogan (128). But all the problems notwithstanding, they did their job for the most part -- 33 points should be enough to win in the playoffs.

The Patriots defense was the biggest disappointment of the game, specifically the inability to make adjustments to slow down the Eagles. The Pats were one of the best clubs this year in second-half points given up. But last night they gave up 19 points in the second half, after giving up 22 in the first half.

This probably owes to a lack of talent, especially the long-term talent drain at LB and the fact they didn't play Butler when Rowe wasn't working. But if I'm the Detroit Lions, I'm a little worried about hiring Matt Patricia as my head coach, because this performance was really, really bad.

Strangely the special teams was a huge weakness for the Pats. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski blew multiple kickoffs, not high enough for the coverage to get there and not deep enough to force a kneel down. He also missed an extra point. And long-snapper Joe Cardona screwed up one snap, costing them another three points.

In the end the Patriots lost because the Eagles outplayed them. But they handicapped themselves by not adding enough talent at linebacker and then compounded that by not playing their second-best corner on defense. Was it hubris by Belichick? A power-play to show Kraft that he is still in charge? If it was either, it's silly -- because the opportunities to win championships don't come around very often.

In their recent Super Bowl losses, I blamed the offense for not putting up enough points early, whereas most of the press blamed the defense for not holding a lead. But this loss is squarely on the defense. They couldn't stop the Eagles and for the umpteenth time this year, they made a bad QB look great.

So where does that leave us? Rebuilding. Both coordinators (Patricia and Josh McDaniels) are off to other jobs, offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia is likely retiring (again), and they need a serious rebuild at linebacker and more talent in the secondary.

Last time they had to replace both coordinators, it was two years before they returned to the Super Bowl and ten years before they won another championship. So be prepared, could be a bumpy ride.

Non-Brady MVP: Chris Hogan, who kept the chains moving when the Eagles blanketed Gronkowski for most of the game.

Statistical Oddity: The 1,156 combined yards on offense are an NFL record for the most in any game, regular- or post-season.

Bonus Oddity: In the fourth quarter this season, the Patriots gave up an average of 16.5 points in the season opener and season closer (KC and Philly games). They gave up an average of 4.6 points in the fourth quarters of all other games combined.

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Holding players accountable is great, but benching Butler was just plain stupid."

Keep the faith, or not... sigh :(

- Scott

PS. 15-4 & 2-1 :( :(

Patriots Super Bowl 52 Preview

One week to go until the big game, and I have a confession to make: I haven't seen the Eagles play this year. Life circumstances and time constraints make this the first time I'll publish a preview of the Super Bowl without at least seeing the opponent in the NFC Championship Game. So please take what you are about to read with a grain -- make that two grains -- of salt.

The Bison In The Room

Philadelphia's starting quarterback in the Super Bowl won't be the guy who started the season, former North Dakota State University star Carson Wentz ("Go Bisons!"). Wentz was on his way to a possible MVP when he was injured against the LA Rams and placed on season-ending injured reserve. So it'll be Nick Foles at the helm on Sunday.

It's been four seasons since Foles' breakout campaign in 2013 (27 touchdowns, 2 interceptions). And the results haven't been great since then: 58.8% completions, 6.43 yards per attempt, 28 TDs, 22 INTs, a 78.1 QB rating, and a 13-10 record (including 2-1 this year). He is a streaky player, who thrives when things are going well and tightens up when they go poorly.

He can throw short but loves to throw long. Against the Patriots, he would be well-advised to keep the ball in the short zones, attacking the Patriots linebackers in pass coverage. The Eagles have two excellent tight ends and at least one receiver who are very good in the short zones. They don't throw much to their running backs; but they have the players to exploit the Pats weakness at linebacker.

The Pats secondary is much more talented and their safeties could feast on the long ball if Foles can't stick with short routes. So he must remain disciplined to give the Eagles a shot.

Can The Eagles Stop The G.O.A.T.?

Philadelphia had the ninth-best passing defense in the league, as measured by giving up just a 79.5 QB rating to all quarterbacks they faced this year. But they didn't face anyone having a year close to what Tom Brady had in 2017.

To answer the question of whether Philly can slow down Brady, consider the AFC Championship Game. Jacksonville led the league by allowing just a 68.5 QB rating by their combined opponents this year. And Brady torched them for a 108.4 rating, a higher rating than Jacksonville had given up in any regular-season game this year.

So it's nice that the Eagles have a good pass defense. But if Rob Gronkowski returns from concussion protocol, the Patriots have plenty of weapons to put the hurt on the Philly defense. Just ask Jacksonville.

Offensive Efficiency Dead Heat

If you think the Patriots are vastly superior to the Eagles on the offensive side, you might want to think again. Here are the two teams game statistics compared from the regular season.

• Points Scored: Patriots 458, Eagles 457
• Plays From Scrimmage: Eagles 1,073, Patriots 1,070
• Third-down Conversions: Eagles 42%, Patriots 41%
• Fourth-down Conversions: Eagles 65%, Patriots 62%

It is true that many of these stats were put up by Wentz, not Foles. But still pretty amazing to see such a close race between the two teams.

Coaching Mismatch A Lot More Than Experience

It's pretty easy to look at the head coaches and see a huge disparity. Philadelphia's Doug Pederson has coached two playoff games, and in fairness, he won them both (the last two weeks). Bill Belichick has coached 38 playoff games and won 28 of them.

Everyone knows Belichick will leave no stone unturned in his preparation and that he will not panic under any circumstances in the game. No one really knows what Pederson will do before or during the game on Sunday.

But the additional mismatch is the coordinators. Pats DC Matt Patricia and OC Josh McDaniels are reportedly gone after the season, taking head coaching jobs with the Lions and Colts, respectively. So neither of them has any reason to leave any bullets unfired in this game. If they have an exotic blitz or a special offensive play, they might as well use it in this game -- because next year they will be gone.

Interestingly, this is the exact situation as the last time the Pats and Eagles played in the Super Bowl. Back then it was Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis leaving after the big game. And both came up with masterful gameplans and stellar adjustments to changing game situations. (Trivia question: name the coaches who replaced Weis and Crennel at their respective positions for the 2005 season. Answer below.)

Quick Hits:

A) Gronkowski participated in practice today and appears on schedule to return for the Super Bowl.

B) The Patriots will likely test the Philly kickoff return game. The Pats kicked it inside the five yard-line against most teams, whereas the Eagles had the fewest kickoff returns in the league this year (18).

C) The thinking seems to be that Philly needs to get pressure with their front four; but that won't be easy. The Eagles had a middling pass rush this year, getting 38 sacks on the season, tied for 15th in the NFL.

D) The Eagles did have a stout run defense though, giving up an average of 3.8 yards per carry (tied for 6th in the league). Meanwhile the Pats gave up 4.7ypc, second-worst in the league.

Statistical Oddity: Under Belichick, the Patriots have played 15 teams in the playoffs that they had not faced in that regular season. They are 15-0 in those games. 15-0! (Credit to fivethirtyeight.com, sorry for the repeat for those on Twitter and Facebook.)

Water-cooler Wisdom: "The team might think of this as a business trip, but I'm nervous as hell!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 15-3 & 2-0!

PPS. Trivia answer:

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In 2005, Eric Mangini replaced Crennel as defensive coordinator. But no offensive coordinator was named -- I know, trick question :P

Patriots Advance To Super Bowl With 24-20 Win Over Jaguars

The Pats capped their fourth-quarter comeback with a 24-20 win over Jacksonville Sunday. The victory put them in the Super Bowl for an NFL record tenth time, and another NFL record eighth time for head coach Bill Belichick and quaterback Tom Brady. More on the Eagles soon, but first, Sunday's win...

You've no doubt heard a lot of analysis already (sorry this is late), but there are a few tidbits that haven't been mentioned much. (1) For every Danny Amendola great catch, there were equally great throws. (2) The Patriots made outstanding halftime adjustments. (3) How/Why Jacksonville went conservative and then blew it under pressure at the end.

Without Amendola the Patriots do not win this game. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was ruled out of the game with a concussion in the first half, and usually dependable James White had two drops, one of which he allowed to be knocked away with poor technique. Chris Hogan didn't appear to be himself, and Brandin Cooks was fine on deep routes but sub-average on short ones. Add to all that the lack of a running game, and it was mostly Amendola keeping the chains moving in the second half.

The Pats receiver had just two catches (for 28 yards) in the three quarters, including one on the critically important touchdown before the half. But in the last 15 minutes, he had the 21-yard grab on third-and-18 grab for a first down. A diving grab for another first down inches from the ground. And then the ridiculous back of the endzone Spiderman catch where his barely got the second foot down as he floated out of bounds.

Two drives later, Amendola returned a punt 20 yards to the Jacksonville 30, and it appeared all but preordained that the Patriots were going to score and win. Two more completions to Amendola, and it was Patriots 24-20, and the ballgame. Without his contribution, the Pats would not be in the Super Bowl.

And none of this is meant to minimize how well Tom Brady played, especially with his 12 stitches in his right hand. A few of his early throws weren't up to his usual standards, particularly the touch throws to the flat. But once he got rolling in the second half, he was as accurate as he's been all year.

Four of the throws on their first fourth-quarter touchdown were outstanding. His dart to Amendola on third-and-18, down low where only his receiver could get it, but high enough to get over the defensive line. He followed that up with a quick-snap flea flicker (hand off to James White, who pitched it back to Brady). And he put that pass right on the money where Phillip Dorsett could leap up to make the play over the defender.

After that, his pass over the middle near the end zone, where he waited an extra half-beat and then threw about one inch past the defender where Amendola could only get it -- an absolutely unfair throw! And even the touchdown to Amendola, where he waited for the short routes to clear, stepped up to avoid pressure, and put it where there was no risk of a turnover but his receiver could make a play; what a brilliant throw.

Then there were the halftime adjustments. Reportedly the Patriots had to throw out 80% of their offensive game plan when Gronkowski was injured. So they mostly scrapped the running game and worked enough of the sideline to open up some throws over the middle later in the second half. It helped that Jacksonville played more zone, but that doesn't explain the increased production on its own.

The first half defense was just plain bad. They lost outside contain on multiple running plays, allowed the quarterback to complete 87% of his passes and convert 67% of the third downs, and barely grazed him beyond the one sack they had.

In the second half, it was different. They brought pressure, and pressure from odd places and strange angles. They got burned early on a delayed blitz up the middle, so they came with outside corner- and safety-blitzes that flustered the young QB. These also came in handy when the Jags tried to run outside, bring an extra defender to hold the edge or blow up the play.

In the last 30 minutes, Jacksonville averaged only 2.7 yards per carry and went 10 of 21 passing. The Patriots had figured them out, and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia once again shut down a team in the second half. He has a habit of doing that -- the Pats gave up an average of 8.3 points in the second half of games this year. And that tendency will be missed when he's gone (reportedly the new head coach in Detroit after the Super Bowl).

Which leads us directly to how Jacksonville lost the game. First, after a dominant first half, they only led by four points. They had a delay of game coming out of a Patriots timeout (what?!), which negated a first-down gain and forced them to punt with about 2:00 left. And of course, the Patriots scored a touchdown easily against the Jags prevent defense.

Then, to compound the mistake, they knelt on the ball with 0:55 left and two timeouts! The Patriots would never have done that, and I'm sure Belichick was grateful that Jacksonville didn't go for the knockout touchdown or at least a field goal.

In the second half, the Jaguars were way too conservative on offense, with too many first-down runs. They ran on first down five times on seven second-half possessions, for a grand total of four yards. They needed to stick with short throws over the middle to attack the vulnerable Patriots linebackers. But they apparently thought the game was in hand, especially given that their defense was one of the league's best this year.

In retrospect, that was an obvious mistake.

Other stand-out performances:

• Kyle Van Noy, who had 9 tackles, 1 sack (for 9 yards), a pass defended, and a forced fumble. Their only good linebacker had a good game.
• Dion Lewis: 32 yards receiving and 34 yards rushing, including 18 big yards to ice the game.
• Brandin Cooks had 100 yards receiving and 68 yards on two penalties against the Jaguars defense.
• Phillip Dorsett, who not only had a 31-yard reception but did a great job chipping the Jacksonville ends to slow their pass rush.
• Stephon Gilmore, with five tackles and two huge passes defended (including a late one to give the ball back to the Patriots).
• Trey Flowers, except for the time he lost outside contain on a 10+ yard Jacksonville run.
• James Harrison, but only when they had him rushing the passer and not against the run.

So where does that leave us? In the Super Bowl, baby! Gronkowski is in the concussion protocol and Brady's hand is still healing. Those are the only real unknowns; so enjoy the two weeks!

Biggest on-going concern: Back to the linebackers in pass coverage.

The Eagles won't attack them with running backs, but they have two good tight ends and at least one wideout (Alshon Jeffery) who can exploit the Pats linebacking deficiencies with short crossing routes.

Non-Brady MVP: Amendola, a monster game.

Statistical Oddity: The difference between Jacksonville's first and second halves, courtesy Matt Patricia's defensive adjustments. (Note: numbers projected from each half to a full game, for easy comparison.)

First half projections

• Rushing: 34 for 120 yards (3.5 yards per carry)
• Passing: 26 of 30 (87%) for 310 yards, 2 touchdowns, 2 sacks (12 yards), 131.9 rating
• Game Stats: 28 first downs, 8 of 12 on third down (67%), 4-4 in the red zone, 418 net yards

Second half projections

• Rushing: 30 for 82 yards (2.7ypc)
• Passing: 20 of 42 (47.6%) for 276 yards, 0 touchdowns, 6 sacks (40 yards), 69.1 rating
• Game Stats: 16 first downs, 4 of 18 on third down (22%), 0-0 in the red zone, 330 net yards
• 330 net yards

Bonus Statistical Oddity (courtesy of ESPN): Teams trailing by 10+ points in the 4th quarter of a playoff game in the last 10 seasons:

• Patriots: 3-4
• Rest of NFL: 3-70

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Gilmore signing was worth it just for that last play!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 15-3 & 2-0!

Patriots Lose Composure and Game, 35-28

The Patriots bumbled their way to a 35-28 loss to the Eagles yesterday, despite a furious comeback that came up just short. The loss puts them into a tie with the Broncos and Bengals for a first-round playoff bye, and shortens their lead in the AFC East to three games over the victorious Jets. Next week is a trip to Houston to take on J.J. Watt and the improving Texans.

Those who watched the Eagles game saw something from the Patriots they haven't seen in a long, long time: panic. After taking a 14-0 lead, the team tried a bizarre onside/drop-kickoff, which gave the Eagles good field position from which they scored. It felt like a panic move; strange for a team that had allowed an average of just 21 yards on the four drives the Eagles had before that play.

The Patriots also gave up on the running game far too quickly. They averaged 5.3 yards per carry in the first quarter and ran for 80 yards in the first half. In the second half they had just 8 carries for 23 yards, including 14 yards on Tom Brady QB sneaks and scrambles. Why panic and give up on something that's working?

And speaking of Brady, the number of hits he's taken are having an effect on his game play. The one trick play the Patriots succeeded with was a throw-back to a wide open Brady, who ran for 36 yards on the play. (Trivia Question: who was the opponent when Brady caught his only other NFL pass in 2001? answer below.) And the next snap, he threw a bomb to the end zone, and missed communication with receiver Brandon LaFell led to an interception.

This is exactly the kind of throw a quarterback makes when he is sick of being hit all the time. QBs tend to try chunk plays so they don't have to take as many hits in order to score. The team had the momentum finally going their way, but Brady had been hit 23 times the previous two weeks and ended up with another 13 hits and 4 sacks yesterday.

Panic makes you make mistakes, and the Patriots made enough of them yesterday to fill two scrapbooks. Panic has been a rare occurrence for Belichick's Patriots. But panic caught them yesterday, in a game they could have managed 100-times better and likely have gotten out with a win.

Special teams was the biggest problem for the Pats. The Eagles tied the game just before the half with a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. The breakdown came with two Patriots blocked one Eagles rusher and Nate Ebner (the personal protector) blocked to the right. That left a free rusher who came in clean and it was a footrace to the end zone.

Additionally, they continued to kick to Eagles returner Darren Sproles even though he was dangerously close to breaking a return. And eventually he did, jetting up the left sideline for an 83-yard touchdown. There was the blown onside kick, which Ebner kicked too shallow and not high enough. And for the Patriots, there was precious little in the kick return games.

All in all the kind of game that gets people fired. Not sure it'll happen in this case, special teams have been excellent most of the year. But not a good day to have their worst performance in about five years. Oh, and that's on a day when they did recover one onside kick, which would usually earn special teams a gold star for the day.

Quarterback play was the second biggest problem, at least for most of the game. Brady threw into traffic at the Eagles one yard-line and it was picked off and run back for a touchdown. So instead of a 17-14 lead, the team was down 21-14. And there was the aforementioned second interception, which you just can't have when you're trying to climb out of a 14-point hole.

It wasn't all on Brady. His offensive line isn't giving him time (what else is new), even against a simple three- or four-man rush. For weeks Brady has been counteracting that with quick throws, but the receivers playing in place of his injured starters just don't get quick separation to allow for those throws.

Danny Amendola faces double-teams every play and there isn't enough talent to win against man-coverage across the field. He ended up with 7 catches (on 13 targets) for 62 yards, and was actually the best of the receivers even facing double-teams. And even when tight end Scott Chandler gets open, it's less than 50-50 that he'll catch the ball.

In fact, running back James White was the receiving star of the game: 10 receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown. And without him, the Pats would never have gotten the game close late, as he made clutch catches in their final two touchdown drives. LeGarrette Blount did most of the heavy lifting in the running game (13 carries for 54 yards), but as mentioned earlier, not much running in the second half.

The defense actually played a decent game. They allowed just one long drive for a touchdown and a TD on a short field. And that was about it. The Eagles scored their other 21 points on special teams and defense. The only real complaint about the Patriots defense is their lone turnover was at the end of the game when it was a nearly impossible situation to win. But at least the got the turnover.

Linebacker Jamie Collins returned and led the team with 8 tackles, adding a defended pass and that forced fumble late. He was late on a few plays, but once he gets his legs back he should return to form. The only other linebacker notes are negative: Jonathan Freeney still gets beaten far too often, especially by back in the flat. And Jerod Mayo still isn't quite healthy; made a few plays and missed more.

The defensive line was hot-and-cold, sometimes stuffing a run for a loss, and then giving up a nine-yard gain to offset that. Rookie Malcom Brown had some nice plays, but Rob Ninkovich's one good play didn't make up for several problems on edge runs. Jamaal Sheard continues to make plays, and even dropped into pass coverage on a few zone-blitzes.

Once linebacker Dont'a Hightower returns, the defense should be in much better shape. Especially if Mayo improves with more play.

As for the secondary, they fight on every single throw. The problem yesterday was they weren't as good as usual situationally. 43% third down conversions and not really a sniff of an interception doesn't add up to a great day. Safeties Devin McCourty (7 tackles) and Patrick Chung (6) are indispensable cogs in this machine.

The coaching staff seemed to want to run the ball early. They lined up with an extra offensive lineman on the first play, and they were doing damage on the ground. That's why it's so curious that they gave up on it. And there was the onside kick call, just not a great day for the coaches.

So where does that leave us? Next week is a tough spot for the Patriots, especially against old friend Romeo Crennel, now the defensive coordinator of the Texans. A lot of this will fall on the shoulders of the Patriots defense, but the Pats can't really afford another loss. Not unless they like playing the first weekend of the playoffs.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Only three times in NFL history has a team scored touchdowns on a blocked punt, a punt return, and an interception in the same game. All three times it was the Philadelphia Eagles. (Credit to Fox Sports for that stat.)

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Stephen Gostkowski not only had a perfect onside kick, but his kickoffs were high and deep, leaving the Eagles with poor field position when the team actually allowed him to kick it long.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "They need Gronk and Hightower back, in the worst way."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-2!

PPS. The Miami Dolphins were the only other team to give up a pass completion to Tom Brady.

Patriots Roar Back To Beat Eagles 38-20

The Patriots scored on multiple long drives to overcome an early deficit and emerge with a 38-20 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The win gives them effectively a three-game lead over their nearest division rivals (three games over Buffalo, two games and a tie-breaker over New York). And they enjoy a psuedo-bye with a "contest" against the absolutely pathetic, 0-11, Manning-less Colts. At home, at 1:00 for a change.

This one didn't look good at first, with a quick 10-0 lead for Philly on two quick-strike scoring drives. The defense was reeling, couldn't make a play, and on the second drive they were lucky to stop Philly for the field goal. But just when the game could have gotten out of hand and the defense needed some rest and time to regroup, the offense stepped up with a 12-play, 70-yard, 6:52 touchdown drive.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Patriots used that time to rest and make adjustments, and Philly scored on only two of their last nine possessions (including a garbage-time touchdown to make the score more respectable). The linebackers and secondary stopped going for play-action fakes, and combined with a Eagles' miscues (ill-timed penalties and dropped passes), the Pats rode a machine-like offense to an easy win.

The defensive line did a credible job up front all day; moving Eagles quarterback Vince Young around in the pocket without giving him too many big running plays. Inside linemen Vince Wilfork and Kyle Love applied pressure up the middle, while Andre Carter and Mark Anderson (and occasionally linebacker Rob Ninkovich) looped around the outside to keep Young in the pocket. Young made them pay with big plays early; but after making the necessary adjustments, the pressure harassed Young enough to knock him off his game.

The linebackers were confused and out of position early on -- biting on play-action fakes and leaving huge gaps in the defense. But once things settled down, they let the Eagles run; and of course, once the Patriots got a big lead, running the ball wasn't going to do it any more. Still without Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton (2 tackles) and special-teamer Tracy White (4) were pressed into service, and it showed. Both let backs and tight ends run away from them, but in their defense (no pun intended), they did battle to stop receivers short of first downs and competed on pass plays when they were close enough.

Ninkovich is blossoming, now that the defensive ends are getting pressure on the quarterbacks. He obviously does well on his first read, so when the opposing QB doesn't have time for a second- or third-read, Ninkovich looks a lot better. Jerod Mayo was uncharacteristically quiet (3 tackles), obviously affected by the active Eagles offensive line and plays that seriously took him into account. Pass coverage is not Mayo's strong suit; and it showed with a couple of coverage problems.

Julian Edelman helped the secondary immeasurably. That's right, the wide receiver -- he had a pressure that caused an incompletion late in the game, made a first-down-saving tackle with the game still in doubt, made a perfect tackle on Vince Young's attempted touchdown scramble, and shut down -- that's right -- shut down Eagles wideout DeSean Jackson. He covered Jackson three times that I saw, and each time Jackson couldn't shake free.

The other defensive backs were pretty good... after the first ten minutes or so. Kyle Arrington got beaten a few times, but had two passes defended and ten tackles. His compete-level is off the charts; I'd hate to play "chicken" with him, because he'd never give in. Antwaun Molden has played 43 NFL games, and he had his second pass defended and his first interception in this one. And the interception came in the second quarter, with the game still very much in doubt.

Bill Belichick said recently that even though the secondary players weren't drafted high and they didn't come from renowned schools, he'd go to battle with them. He stated that they take coaching, do what they are supposed to do, and compete hard on every play, and that is true of the whole crew. They might even help him to a 12-4 record. But even Belichick will feel a lot better if Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty return to the lineup.

On offense, it was another slow start for quarterback Tom Brady. He took some serious hits on the first drive, and the Patriots mixed in an effective running attack after that to slow down the Philadelphia pass rush. The stat sheet lists only one sack and two quarterback hits of Brady, but he got hit at least ten times in this game. However, you have to give the Patriots credit for using the run and the no-huddle to slow down the pass rush.

Brady had three spectacular plays that deserve special mention. On the first one, he made a free blitzer whiff and stepped up, directing Deion Branch down the sideline, and he completed the pass for 63 yards. On the second, he threw a perfect hardball pass to Wes Welker in the flat, and Welker turned quickly to reach out for the touchdown. The third was a perfect pass over the middle to tight end Rob Gronkowski, just after he broke free and just before the safety got in to break up the pass. On the day Brady completed 24 of 34 for 361 yards, 3 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 134.6 passer rating. He also had two scrambles (and two divots).

Welker (8 catches for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Branch (6 for 125) led the receivers, with tight ends Gronkowski (4 for 59 and 1) and Aaron Hernandez (6 for 62) doing their usual "matchup nightmare" thing. Philly is the third team to cover Gronkowski with their best corner (Nnamdi Asomugha in this case), but to no avail. And it looked like Brady could complete a pass to Hernandez whenever he wanted.

Branch and Welker were in total sync with the quarterback, a good thing as the team heads into December. However, a word of caution from someone who's seen this before. Completing passes to only four receivers is not a recipe for playoff success. The running backs and other receivers need to be more involved; because in the post-season, defenses are usually good enough to stop the #1 and sometimes #2 receivers.

Brady was also the second leading rusher, complementing BenJarvus Green-Ellis (14 carries for 44 yards). Danny Woodhead was more involved, and Shane Vereen got into the act late (7 for 18). Overall not a lot of production; but every running play was crucial, because they got enough yardage to keep the Eagles defense honest, and that slowed down the pass rush (which was killing  Brady early on).

The offensive line didn't do very well. Only 2.9 yards a rush, the aforementioned hits on Brady, and Brian Waters had his worst game since joining the team. Waters committed two consecutive holding penalties, he completely missed his man on a sweep, and at least two QB hits that were his fault. He has been rock-solid, so no doubt he'll improve again. One other O-line note: Ryan Wendell is the third player to start at center, and at least his snaps were perfect. 

Special teams didn't break one like last week. But most important of all, they neutralized the Philadelphia punt return game. DeSean Jackson can break one for a touchdown every return, but punter Zoltan Mesko kicked 'em high enough to get two fair catches. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski did miss another field goal -- this time from 39 yards. Something tells me he might be affected by the relative revolving-door at long snapper. The team has had three long snappers in the last three years -- two of them rookies.

The coaching during the week is a bit suspect, because of the slow starts. The Patriots hadn't scored a first-quarter touchdown in five games; and almost didn't score one yesterday. However, the offensive and defensive adjustments were outstanding during the game. Any time you are down 10-0 and then go on a 38-3 run, your coaches did a fine job of fixing what was wrong. 

So where does that leave us? An 8-3 record is good enough for a share of the lead for #1 seed in the AFC. As stated above, the Patriots have what amounts to a three-game lead in the division with five games to play. It isn't really a Bye week against the Colts; but the Patriots should handle them at home next Sunday. 

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Wide receiver Matthew Slater has one career reception and one career rush... and two fumbles lost. (Trivia question: name the only other non-quarterback on the Patriots 2011 roster with more than with more than one lost fumble... answer below.) 

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Everyone said this game wouldn't show us much about the Patriots, but it did show the Pats coaches can out-adjust the best of 'em -- even Andy Reid.  Though it helps to be facing Vince Young."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  8-3!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Longtime Patriots running back Kevin Faulk has lost 16 fumbles in his career, although he does have 1,567 touches.

PPPS.  Note on fumbles: current non-QBs on the Patriots have lost fumbles only 0.65% of the time they ran or received the ball. In 3,683 touches (in a Patriots uniform), they have just 24 fumbles -- here is a list of how it breaks down:
 

Kevin Faulk: 1567 touches, 16 fumbles lost (1%)

Wes Welker: 628, 1 (0.16%) 

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 503, 0 (0.0%) 

Deion Branch: 352, 1 (0.28%) 

Danny Woodhead : 210, 1 (0.48%)

Rob Gronkowski: 103, 1 (0.97%)

Julian Edelman: 121, 1 (0.83%)

Aaron Hernandez: 96, 1 (1.04%) 

Stevan Ridley: 50, 0  (0.0%) 

Matthew Slater: 27, 2 (7.41%) 

Shane Vereen: 15, 0 (0.0%)

Chad Ochocinco: 11, 0 (0.0%)

Sort of puts into perspective how disappointing Matthew Slater is.

Patriots Dispatch Chiefs With Ease, 34-3

Most everything looked easy for the Patriots in last night's 34-3 drubbing of the Kansas City Chiefs. The win gave the Pats a two-game cushion in the division over the reeling Buffalo Bills and slipping New York Jets. Next up is the Eagles in Philadelphia, on a short week that includes extra time off for Thanksgiving. No easy task; but of course, the Eagles have to deal with some of the same distractions, so it should all come out in the wash.

Not a whole lot to report; just about everything that could go right for the Pats did, and just about everything that could go wrong for the Chiefs did. The Chiefs won the first quarter 3-0, and the Patriots won the next three quarters 10-0, 17-0, and 7-0. Sometimes that's the way it goes, especially when your quarterback is starting his first NFL game at age 28.

Quarterback Tom Brady was held in check for most of the first half; getting sacked three times and harassed on many other plays will do that to you. Obviously old friend Romeo Crennel had some surprises for Brady, but once the Patriots figured out the defense, it was game over. The offensive line kept him clean the second half, and he finished with a 109.2 rating and 2 touchdowns to zero interceptions.

The running game was a bit of a mixed bag. There were lots of plays that got stuffed; but in the end, it totaled 157 yards on 35 carries (4.5 yards per rush). BenJarvus Green-Ellis (20 carries for 81 yards) led the way, while Danny Woodhead (5 for 27) got important yards on inside handoffs, and rookie Shane Vereen (8 for 39 and 1 touchdown) showed some nifty moves and moved the pile on a fourth-down run for a score.

The tight ends starred again among receivers. Aaron Hernandez (4 catches for 44 yards) caught two important passes on the first touchdown drive, and Rob Gronkowski (4 for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns) showed speed and moves on two touchdowns where he tiptoed along the sideline. The rest of the passing game was mostly an afterthought, though it was spread around evenly, which is usually a good sign.

Offensive line play was down in the first 20 minutes and then picked up to give Brady time at the end of the half and for the entire second half. That owed partially to more consistent running plays in the second half; although those also reflect well on the offensive line. Additionally, they did a nice job blocking on screen passes, which haven't gone very well in recent weeks; so that's an area of improvement.

Defensively the plan appeared to be stopping the run and forcing quarterback Tyler Palko, to beat them through the air. He did so on the Chiefs only scoring drive; but after that it was "Bad Palko." Secondary play confused him into holding the ball, which allowed the pressure to get to him, which forced bad throws, which gave the Patriots three interceptions. In other words, Palko couldn't handle the Patriots team defense.

Andre Carter and Mark Anderson brought the heat from the outside line positions, getting 0.5 and 1.5 sacks, respectively. Carter also blew up several running plays and a screen pass before they could get started. And Rob Ninkovich got the third sack of Palko, and also pressured him into his first interception. Note also that the sacks came at critical times, with the Chiefs trying to claw their way back into the game and the defense needing to come up big.

NFL interception leader Kyle Arrington got two of the easiest picks of his career, and unknown corner Phillip Adams got a total gift when Palko thew into quadruple coverage in the end zone.

The kick-return team should have been more ready for the onside kick; though the Chiefs blew it (as they did so much yesterday), so it didn't cost them. The Pats did give up a long punt return, though they got an even longer one back when Julian Edelman zigged and zagged his way through Kansas City for a 72-yard return touchdown.

The coaches made nice adjustments after the first quarter. And they did not get surprised/beaten by a young quarterback, which has often been the case the first time they see one (see Matt Shaub with Atlanta, Chad Henne with Miami, or Ben Roethlisberger with Pittsburgh).

So where does that leave us? A 7-3 record puts them currently atop the AFC, two full games ahead of Buffalo (with one remaining game with them) and essentially three ahead of New york (with tie breakers). The Eagles game will be no picnic; they have an explosive offense (for once you can believe Belichick when he says this), an opportunistic defense, and are desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Colts won ten games last year and have zero wins so far this year.  If they go winless, they will tie the record for the biggest single-season decline in wins in NFL history.  (Trivia question: name the team that currently holds that record.  Answer below.)

Bonus Statistical Oddity: The Patriots have outscored their opponents by an aggregate score of 93-3 in the two games my friend April has attended (last night, and the 59-0 destruction of Tennessee two years ago).  With that track record in mind, please let me know if you want to set up a fund to make sure she attends all future games (or at least playoff games).

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I guess there's a reason Palko was starting his first NFL game at age 29."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-3!

PPS.  Trivia Answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
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The Houston Oilers won 12 games in 1993 and just 2 games in 1994, which is the current "gold standard" for declining wins from one year to the next.  Maybe that's why the team doesn't even exist any more.

Patriots 31, Eagles 28 (11/25/2007)

In the "Any Given Sunday" world of the NFL, the Eagles served the Patriots some "humble pie" last night, reminding them that they are human. But Philly failed to close the deal as the Patriots squeaked out a 31-28 win. The Buffalo Bills lost earlier in the day, and that gave the Patriots the AFC East Championship (tied for the earliest clinching of a division title since the 16-game schedule was adopted in 1978), and kept them three games ahead of Pittsburgh (who plays tonight) and Indianapolis (won last Thursday) in the race for playoff positioning.

The O-line didn't have their best game; but there was a lot of pressure on them. The Pats went with an empty backfield a lot of the time, and the Eagles love to blitz guys from everywhere. The result was 2.9 yards per rush, 3 sacks, and a lot more pressure than Tom Brady usually faces. The Patriots barely ran the ball at all, but when they did, it was effective. Their 16 attempts netted them 5 first downs and 2 touchdowns. Heath Evans got one TD, and Laurence Maroney got the other. There isn't much else to say about the running game, except that Tom Brady had two nice scrambles for first downs.

As for Brady's passing, it wasn't quite his best, but he ended up completing 63% of his passes for 380 yards and a touchdown (and most important, no interceptions). He was sometimes not pressured at all and sometimes under a lot of pressure -- nothing in-between. When he had time, he made some throws that could have been game-changers, but his hand was hit on the release on one (and Donte Stallworth knocked it away from a defender), and Randy Moss dropped another. In fact, the receivers had more drops in this game than they've had all season (maybe a slight exaggeration, but it felt that way). Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth (twice), Laurence Maroney, and Kevin Faulk all had drops that I remember. The one name you don't see on that list is Wes Welker, who had a terrific game. Career highs with 13 receptions and 149 yards, and a 42-yard catch-and-run -- on a drive where the Pats (unfortunately) failed to score with a first-and-goal at the five-yard line. And Jabar Gaffney made another Plasticman reception for a touchdown to end the second quarter -- a huge play in a three-point win.

The defensive stars of the game were Asante Samuel and James Sanders. Between them, they had five passes defensed (out a team total of six) and three interceptions -- with Samuel taking one back for a touchdown and Sanders icing the game with his. The rest of the secondary is due some serious reprimands this week. The Eagles had four touchdown drives that looked much too easy, with wide open receivers on the sideline and guys open for medium gains in the middle. The team didn't get much pressure on the QB, so I expected them to stop blitzing and dropping more guys into the passing zones. But that rarely happened, and with a lack of pressure, Ellis Hobbs, Randall Gay, and Eddie Jackson were either out of position or late on too many throws.

For a while, it looked like the Mike Vrabel show early on. In the first 16 minutes he'd stopped Eagles running back Brian Westbrook for short- or negative-yardage plays four times, made two tackles on passing plays, and pressured the QB on two others. But he tailed off after that, getting called for an encroachment penalty and being beaten for several runs around end. Tedy Bruschi and Adalius Thomas had good games, but this wasn't the linebackers shining moment for this season. There wasn't enough pressure on the QB, and there were too many tackles *after* the catch.

The D-line didn't do anything extra special, nor did they screw up a lot. The controlled the line of scrimmage on running plays (19 rushes for 53 yards), but could not get consistent pressure on the pocket. I heard some commentators talk about how the Eagles "exposed" the line and the secondary, but I disagree. Philly's O-line has to get a lot of credit, and the Patriots coaches should have switched to more soft-zone and fewer blitzes when it became clear they couldn't get any pressure on the QB. The Pats D-line played the Eagles O-line to a standstill, which is better than most lines do. The secondary was always the weakest link in this defense -- but few teams have had time to exploit them. BTW, I've seen enough of the 2-5-4 with Jarvis Green and Mike Wright on the line... the team got smoked on that defense way too often.

Special teams didn't do much that was great, and had some real gaffes. Kelley Washington had an unnecessary hold that brought a kickoff return back from the 46 to the 21, and Stephen Gostkowski missed a simple 32-yard field goal, and they let the Eagles recover an onside kick, which should have their coach (Brad Seeley) force-feeding them humble pie all week. However, they kept all of the kickoff and punt returns short, and Gostkowski converted on a 23-yard field goal -- so it wasn't *all* bad.

As for the coaches, on offense it was pretty good, just too many dropped passes. But special teams didn't play that well, and on defense, they should have mixed in more eight-man drops with their five- and six-man blitzes, just to keep the Eagles off-balance. Once the Eagles QB knew that four, five, or six men would rush every play, he just hit quick passes and kept the chains moving. Not that it was all bad -- the Eagles scored on four drives, but they had two three-and-outs, a four-and-out, and three interceptions on their other six. But I think the coaches should have adjusted quicker to the game situation.

So where does that leave us? 11-0 sounds pretty good, and division champs sounds even better. That guarantees a home playoff game, although the team would obviously like to secure a first-round bye and/or the #1 AFC playoff seed. By my calculations, if they win the next two games, a first-round bye would be assured. The reason is because it would put Pittsburgh too far behind the Patriots (since one of those two wins would be over Pittsburgh), and the only other contenders would be Jacksonville and Indianapolis -- and they play each other next week, so the loser of that game would not be able to catch the Patriots, either. But of course, given the one-game-at-a-time mantra, it's the Baltimore Ravens next Monday night. The Pats should be able to win if they don't turn the ball over; because the Ravens have no offense at all. But note: it isn't easy to keep from turning the ball over against the Ravens.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The halftime score of this game was the same as the score at the end of the Patriots Super Bowl win over the Eagles (24-21). Also, the teams both scored seven points each in the first half of the Super Bowl and did the exact same thing in the second half of Sunday's game. Lastly, in both those games, the Eagles QB threw three interceptions and a safety picked the third one to seal the game for the Patriots.

One Possible Serving of Humble Pie (please read in a deadpan monotone): "Well, we gave up too many easy passes, not enough pressure on the quarterback, we had some drops and stuff, and we gave up some sacks. We kinda missed the boat on that onside kick, and you'd think we could hit a 32-yard field goal... we gotta do a better job coaching that stuff. Other than that, I think the fans need to work a little harder -- don't sell you tickets to fans of the opponent and cheer louder when we come out of the tunnel. And the wind needs to be stronger when they have the ball, and maybe it could rain on their sideline. Just some stuff to get fixed before the next game."

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Look, we all love blowout wins, but you don't want to go into the playoffs without struggling in any games. You gotta be battle-tested, otherwise you might fold the first time things get tough. Just ask Randy Moss -- his Vikings team blew through the league at 15-1 -- then lost in the NFC Championship game."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 11-0!

Patriots 24, Eagles 21 (2/6/2005)

Wow. Going to your first Super Bowl blows you away. It's a once-in-a-lifetime never-to-be-duplicated experience that you strive for with hope and reach with a bit of disbelief. At least it was for me. When they finally scanned my ticket and said, "Enjoy the game," I wasn't sure I should walk toward the stadium. I sort of wanted to go out again and make my way through the line a second time, just so I could remember *exactly* what it felt like to cross that threshold. The only thing better was having the Patriots put down the Eagles to secure their third Lombardi Trophy in four years and to walk out serenaded by chants of "Dy-Nas-Ty!" "Three-Of-Four!" and the obligatory "Yankees Suck!"

It's over for another year, folks, and your New England Patriots are Champions of football, with a 24-21 win over the best the NFC had to offer, the Philadelphia Eagles. With the win, they are 34-4 over the last two years (the 34 wins are a new NFL record), 9-0 in the playoffs over the last four years (tying the NFL record for most consecutive post-season wins), Bill Belichick is 10-1 in the post-season (best record in NFL history), and Tom Brady is 9-0 in the post-season (tying the NFL record for most consecutive wins and breaking the record for most consecutive playoff wins to start a career). Perhaps most amazing is this: in 39 Super Bowls, there have been only five decided by three points or fewer; the Patriots have won three of those five in the last four years. Clutch, just clutch.

So how'd they do it, you may ask. Well, I didn't see the game in the usual way, so I don't know how valuable my information might be. I watched from an odd angle (all the way at the end of the sideline seats at the very tip-top of the stadium), and I don't have a videotape of the game to watch -- at least not yet. I was surrounded by Eagles fans, and I do mean surrounded -- about 50 Eagles fans for every Patriots fan in my section -- so I spent more time defending myself and my team than usual. I'd had about 6 hours sleep in the previous two days, and I was badly sunburned because in Florida they "don't sell sun block in the wintertime." But I guess I'll give it my best shot.

On defense, the Patriots played the odd 2-5-4 alignment almost exclusively: two defensive linemen, five linebackers, and four defensive backs. And they lined them up in a 4-3, with two different linebackers on the line each time. They must have known going in that the Eagles wouldn't or couldn't run the ball, so this defense gave them maximum flexibility to blitz (which they did a lot) or drop a boat-load of guys into coverage. Turned out the Eagles couldn't run the ball at all. In fact, when you take out the meaningless 22-yard jaunt at the end of the half, they had only 23 yards on 16 carries. Pretty bad.

So with no running game, it came down to Eagles QB Donovan McNabb. And he was never the factor the Eagles needed him to be. He threw some of the most pathetic interceptions I'd seen since Scott Secules left the Patriots in 1993. He was obviously confused and he never beat the Patriots by scrambling and/or buying time. In the first quarter, he led the team to the Patriots 8 yard line before being sacked for a 16 yard loss, throwing an interception that was called back on a Patriots penalty, and following that up with a hideous interception by Rodney Harrison. Pretty much tells you how his day went. He was under constant pressure from different players every time; he was sacked four times on the day and threw three interceptions and almost lost a fumble.

The Eagles did get some decent performances by Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens. But with McNabb stinking up the joint, the Eagles had no realistic chance to win. Too much Bruschi, Seymour, Harrison, Vrabel, and Colvin.

As I predicted, the Patriots sputtered on offense early, getting one first down in their first four drives and fumbling deep in Philly territory on their fifth. Their last drive of the first half got them back to a 7-7 game, and I was extremely confident at that point. If you remember, I said the Eagles had to have a 10- or 14-point lead at the half to win the game, so a tie was in the Patriots favor. In fact, that last drive of the first half and first four of the second half are where the Pats won the game: touchdown, touchdown, punt, touchdown, field goal -- all 24 points they scored on the day. Brady was perfect (2 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a bunch of good decisions), Super Bowl MVP Branch was unbelievable (11 catches for 133 yards), the screen pass wore out the Eagle defense, and while the Patriots were lighting up the scoreboard, their defense held Philly to 7 points.

The ball game was basically over by then. McNabb threw two more interceptions and was physically unable to run a hurry-up offense, so their last touchdown was meaningless because they'd used too much time. Only an onside kick recovery would help them, and they didn't even come close. We might never know if it was McNabb who couldn't run the offense because he was exhausted (my personal theory) or if the Eagles coaches just froze under pressure. Either way, it's another championship for our boys in red white, and blue, and I'm sure they'll take it with no regrets.

So where does that leave us? Well, the Patriots have lost their two coordinators: Charlie Weis is the new head coach at Notre Dame, and Romeo Crennel will take the same job with the Cleveland Browns. This will certainly be the toughest challenge since the Patriots began this championship run. Historically, defenses often play better with a new coordinator because it takes the opposition a while to figure out what they're doing. Additionally, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick cut his teeth on the defensive side so he can help out with that side of the ball. On the other hand, offenses often struggle for a year under a new coordinator, even if the same basic system is kept intact. Offense requires more timing and chemistry than defense, and it's difficult to maintain that with a new guy.

I disagree with some who say the entire offense and defense should stay the same. I think you if you hire a new coordinator you should trust that he will make the right decisions for the team. So if Romeo's replacement thinks a particular defense is too risky in the secondary, it should be adjusted. And if Charlie's replacement thinks Corey Dillon is underutilized, then that should be adjusted. After the Super Bowl, I told some Eagles fans (the few who were nice to me during the game) that next year is their best opportunity to win it all because the Patriots are unlikely to make it back with all the coaching changes. Given what I know about the history of new coordinators, I still believe that. But I leave open the possibility that the Patriots could overcome it and even thrive. They've been too good at adjusting for me to doubt them very much.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "In Conference Championship and Super Bowl games, Donovan McNabb's quarterback rating is 62.2. Tom Brady's is 98.9 in similar games. Maybe the Philly fans were right to boo McNabb when he was drafted."

Hope you enjoyed the season as much as I did. Thanks for tuning in.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

3-0!
&
17-2!