Patriots Lose Heart-breaker to Panthers, 24-20

The Patriots hung tough, but it wasn't enough, as the Panthers came out on top 24-20.  The loss puts the Patriots at 7-3, but with the Jets loss yesterday, they are still two games up in the division. Up next are the offensive juggnernaut Broncos, coming to Foxboro for yet another showdown between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

Let's start at the end, with the controversial final play of the game. Patriots at the Carolina 18 yard-line, needing a touchdown to win, and Brady threw into the end zone toward Rob Gronkowski, who was clearly interfered with. The flag came flying, and it looked like the Patriots will get another shot from the 1 yard-line. But wait; the referees conferred and decided to pick up the flag, essentially ending the game with a Carolina win.

Then a disembodied voice came on the television, it was former official Gerry Austin saying that the contact was in the back of the end zone and the pass was intercepted near the front, so it wasn't interference. However, the replays clearly showed that Gronkowski was illegally contacted five-yards into the end zone, and the interception happened -- you guessed it -- five yards into the end zone. The referees should have stuck with their original call and given the Patriots one more play for the win.

But that isn't why they lost.

On the previous drive, the Patriots led 20-17, but they were down to backup-backup-backup cornerbacks. Kyle Arrington was covering the fastest receiver on the field, Ted Ginn, Jr. on the outside. This was a mismatch given that Arrington is better against smaller, inside receivers, but Ginn had mostly been shut out and it appeared that rookie safety Duron Harmon was shading some help to Arrington's side.

However, at the snap, Harmon (along with a linebacker) covered the tight end over the middle, which left Arrington all alone. If you watched, you know that Ginn took a quick hitch, juked past Arrington, and scored a touchdown for the lead, instead of the Panthers having to kick a game-tying field goal. It was his only catch of the day.

But that isn't why they lost, either.

On the drive prior to that, the Pats had a third-and-one at the Carolina eight yard-line. The Patriots had averaged 4.3 yards a rush, but they went play-action to fool the Panthers. Unfortunately they were ready for it, and they covered the short-left route, leaving Brady to throw it out of the end zone. The Patriots kicked a field goal, and left 6:36 on the clock, leading to the Panthers winning drive.

If the Patriots picked up that first down, they would run another two minutes off the clock, and maybe get a seven-point lead instead of a three-point lead. They would also put pressure on Carolina to score a touchdown to tie (or win with a two-point conversion), and with two fewer minutes on the clock. But the play-call was wrong for the defense in place; and they should have called a time out or audibled into a more favorable play.

But even that isn't why the lost. Here is why they lost:

1. Two stupid personal-foul penalties (Aqib Talib and Logan Mankins)
2. A Stevan Ridley fumble in the red zone (where have I read that before?)
3. No containment on the Panthers QB (who torched them for important first downs)
4. Yet another lack-luster first half after a bye week (averaging 4.6 points per first quarter after a bye under Bill Belichick*)
5. No forced turnovers

That is why they lost the game.

(Note: even with yesterday's minus-2 turnover ratio, the Patriots are second in the AFC with +7 on the year. Can you name the #1 team in the AFC in this category? Answer below.)

As for the ups and downs of the game, there are plenty. The Patriots ran the ball well, but running back LeGarrette Blount proved more productive (10 carries for 49 yards) and trustworthy (0 fumbles) than starter Ridley (10 carries for 48 yards, and 1 critical fumble). Ridley ran hard, especially after he got back into the game; but if he doesn't learn to protect the ball he'll be on a train out of town before he realizes it.

Quarterback Brady was sharper than sharp: 29 of 40 (73%), 296 yards, 2 sacks for 13 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 desperation interception, and a 91.2 QB rating. He was also well in command; changing plays to take advantage of defensive alignments, and shredding the defense on two consecutive drives to start the second half (9 for 9, 105 yards, 1 touchdown).

You'd think with decent running stats and a great performance by the quarterback, the offensive line would get some praise. Well, they'll get some, but they have to play smarter. Mankins' penalty was idiotic and cost the Patriots a chance at points. Marcus Cannon tripped a guy after he got beaten, Ryan Wendell missed assignments that allowed direct pressure on Brady, and Nate Solder gave an outside rusher a free shot at Brady because he was trying to block an inside blitz that never materialized. So a decent day, but still too many mental mistakes for this group.

As for the receivers, they mostly did a very good job. Even though he's a running back, Shane Vereen did a lot more damage in the passing game (8 catches for 65 yards) than the running game (1 rush for 7 yards). And in fact, he, Danny Amendola (6 for 75), and Gronkowski (5 for 59, 1 touchdown) had some crucial third-down conversions to keep the chains moving. The Pats converted 50% of their third-downs, which is good at home against a Panthers defense only giving up 35%. Also, it was nice to see Kenbrell Thompkins back on the field -- just 2 catches, but for 60 big yards.

The defensive line was the trick-or-treat unit of the day. They came up with 3 sacks, but also let Newton loose for 62 yards and three absolute *killer* first down conversions. Rob Ninkovich led the team with 9 tackles, and had 2 of those sacks, too (he also did a great job holding the edge and pushing the pocket).

The team moved Chandler Jones all over the field, some on the left, some on the right, and some plays at linebacker in pass coverage. He ended up with 5 tackles, 1 sack, and a QB hit. However, tight end Richie Brockel ate Jones' *lunch* on the pass rush, and Jones let Newton get outside of containment on his biggest third-down conversion of the day. It is interesting to watch how the team uses Jones; he's the first player since Tedy Bruschi or Willie McGinest to rush the passer, play inside against the run, blitz from the second level, and drop into pass coverage as a linebacker.

And speaking of linebackers, the loss of Jerod Mayo is really starting to show. Brandon Spikes (7 tackles) still guesses correctly often enough, but he came up short on a few plays that allowed the Panthers to keep the ball. And Dont'a Hightower (4 tackles) was too tentative or a step slow with Newton and the backs. All you need to know about the teams' linebackers is that not one other made the defensive stat sheet (Ninkovich plays defensive end mostly) -- it was all Spikes and Hightower -- and that isn't good enough.

The secondary fought valiantly, but in the end, the injuries were too much to overcome. Aqib Talib, for all his swagger, should have intercepted a first-quarter pass, though he had tight coverage most of the time (and 5 tackles and 2 passes defended). Unfortunately, he went down in the second half, so it was Kyle Arrington -- although he did a nice job in run support and was decent aside from the blown play on Ginn (he had 2 tackles, 1 for a loss, and 1 pass defended). The safeties played well, until they had to make up for having subpar corners, and that is when all hell broke loose.

On special teams, Tavon Wilson had a great day, with two big tackles on return-man Ginn. He and Nate Ebner are competing to dethrone Matthew Slater as best coverage man this year. Also, punter Ryan Allen did a nice job on one bad snap, and regrouped quickly on his own miscue to get it down for Stephen Gostkowski's last field goal (to take the lead). There wasn't much punting, so not much else to judge him on. And Gostkowski's kickoffs had great hang time, which helped keep Ginn's return ability in check.

The coaching staff needs to figure out why their offense stinks in the first quarter after every bye week. Their self-scouting has failed them here. And I wrote it last entry; Josh McDaniels needs to be better aware of game-situations -- they went for a pass on third-and-one, but he needed to have a decent run to audible to at that point in the game. Also, the defensive coaches probably stressed all week to keep Newton in the pocket, but the guys on the field did not execute that at all.

One last note, about the injuries. I wrote it to start the season and again in my last update: there is no depth on the defensive line or secondary. If Talib and Dennard stay on the shelf, the Patriots will be fortunate to win the division, but any first-round bye will be out of the question. And on the D-line, maybe they'll figure out how to integrate Andre Carter, but for the time being, it's two rookies and a lot of finger-crossing.

So where does that leave us? 7-3 dropped the Patriots into a three-way battle for the second playoff bye, with Cincinnati and Indianapolis. Both of those teams hold tie-breakers over the Patriots; so unless they stumble, the Pats are probably looking at a division crown and a first-round playoff game. But before that, they have a date with Peyton Manning again, next Sunday -- and if the Pats secondary isn't healthy, it could be a loooong night.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots failed to record a turnover for the first time in 36 games, which ended the longest current streak in the NFL.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It would be nice to have a defensive line that can rush the passer without turning him into Barry Sanders when he takes off?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-3!

PPS. Trivia answer: The Kansas City Chiefs have a +15 turnover ratio this season.

*Pats first-quarter scoring after a bye: 0, 10, 0, 0, 3, 7, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 14, 7, 0, 7, 7, 7, 3, 0, 14, 0, 14, 7, 0 (that is a lot of zeros, folks)

Patriots Mid-Season Report 2013

A very interesting first half put the Patriots exactly where I thought they’d be: 7-2 and in control of the division.  They won some they shouldn’t have won, lost one they shouldn’t have lost, and overall have a two-game lead with seven games to go.  Just about where they are every year at this time.

It’s a little past halfway, but here is the state of the Patriots after their ninth game.

Offense

If quarterback Tom Brady continues at this pace, he’ll end the season with career worsts in completion percentage (currently at 57.1%, career low 60.2%), touchdown percentage (3.8% vs. 4.4%), QB Rating (82.7 vs. 85.7), and sacks (46 vs. 41). It’s partially due to the lack of weapons, but his throws haven’t been as accurate as in recent years.

To be fair, a lot of the early incompletions were missed routes or dropped passes by new receivers. And his connection with the receivers is better, especially now that tight end Rob Gronkowski is rounding into form and Danny Amendola is healthy again.

Additionally, the high number of sacks is more on the offensive line than on Brady. Left guard Logan Mankins and left tackle Nate Solder have been confused on protection far too often this year. And physical defensive lines on Cincinnati, New Orleans, and the New York Jets accounted for over half the year’s sacks in three consecutive games.

The running game hasn’t been a problem, with an improvement from 4.2 yards per carry last year to 4.4 this year, and more explosive plays. So the O-line hasn’t been all bad, and it should improve further given that Gronkowski is one of the best blocking tight ends in football. But even with help from the tight ends, it will be on the starting five to step up their play, especially against larger, more physical defensive lines.

As for the receivers, two games ago rookie receiver Aaron Dobson and Brady finally connected on a back-shoulder pass -- the toughest pass to defend. And they followed that up with a back-shoulder TD last week. Dobson has all the physical skills, and with he and Brady getting into greater sync, he should be dangerous in the second half.

And if last week is any indication, Gronkowski, Dobson, and Danny Amendola will flood or split the field, spreading out defenses. It worked against Pittsburgh when the defense lost track of Amendola several times, for the easiest pass receptions, and one of the easiest touchdowns, of his career. And Gronkowski notched his first touchdown of 2013, and caught several easy pitch-and-catches down the seam.

Defense

The defensive line lost both of its interior players for the year, defensive captain Vince Wilfork and newcomer Tommy Kelly. They’ve been replaced by rookies, Joe Vellano (who is better against the run) and Chris Jones (who is second on the team with five sacks). But the team is getting beaten with inside runs, and when they overcommit to those, they’ve been beaten to the outside.

Chandler Jones does a nice job rushing the passer (8.5 sacks), but he’s no Rob Ninkovich when it comes to holding the edge against the run. And interestingly, the Patriots brought back one-time D-lineman Andre Carter -- and moved Jones to linebacker to help with pass coverage.  And that was necessary because…

Linebacker Jerod Mayo is also out of for the year, on injured reserve with a torn pectoral. Mayo’s taken his lumps from me over the years, mostly for his poor pass coverage. But he was much improved in that area, until the injury. So they need more speed and length in the linebacking corps, because Dont’a Hightower is almost D-lineman size and Brandon Spikes is vastly better against the run.

In the secondary, Aqib Talib is still the key. He’s been injured and missed a few games; and when he is out, the Patriots tend to move slot corner Kyle Arrington outside and backups Marquice Cole or Logan Ryan to the slot. They’d be better off keeping Arrington on the slot receivers and giving help to the side with Cole or Ryan. Arrington was repeatedly beaten in the second Jets game, and they eventually had to move him back inside -- and the Jets receivers aren’t even that good.

Safety Devin McCourty is having a spectacular season, and his counterpart, Steve Gregory is much better than last year. However, this is yet another area where the drop-off from starter to backup is significant, so the team has to hope both players can stay healthy.

Special Teams/Coaching

Stephen Gostkowski was already the most accurate kicker in Patriots history, and that was before he went 22 of 23 this year. His kickoffs have also been very good -- with plenty of touchbacks and hang time -- except for the Pittsburgh game, when they were a bit shorter than usual. Perhaps he was nursing an injury in that game, but if so, he’s had two weeks to rest and should be back to his normal, brilliant self.

Rookie punter Ryan Allen had a few early “yips” punts, but overall has done a very good job. He also does well holding on field goals (as evidenced by Gostkowski’s amazing percentage). And his coverage teams are very good; Nate Ebner is threatening to take away Matthew Slater’s title as all-around special teams ball hawk.

On kickoff returns, LeGarrette Blount shows surprisingly quick feet for such a big man. Not exactly a barn-burner, but better than Devin McCourty was last year. And Julian Edelman continues to take chances and make them payoff on punt returns; almost never fair-catching, and sometimes slipping through cracks so small you’d think a pee wee footballer wouldn’t fit through.

The defensive coaching has been mostly excellent. The only questionable decision was the aforementioned move of Arrington to the outside against the Jets. Aside from that, coordinator Matt Patricia has pulled the right strings all year.

On offense, Josh McDaniels needs to calm himself down sometimes. There is no need to go for a 40-yard bomb on third-and-two -- but somehow McDaniels still hasn’t learned that lesson. Oh, and Scott O’Brien continues to excel, year after year, coaching special teams.

Summary

With another division title in their sights, don’t expect the Patriots to lose focus. The Panthers are a sterner test than I gave them credit for in my Season Preview, but given Belichick’s record against young quarterbacks, and his dominance against the NFC, tomorrow’s tilt in Carolina should be a Patriots win.

The Patriots have suffered many injuries in past years, but never this many to key players. If they don’t stay healthy, they won’t pull out an undermanned Super Bowl victory, as they did in 2003. But they can compete for a championship with the injuries they’ve suffered so far; they just can’t afford any more.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: You should not concern yourself with Brady’s low completion percentage.  The lowest two seasons of his career are 2003 and 2004 (60.1% and 60.8%, respectively) -- and the Patriots won the Super Bowl both of those years.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Since 2001 Belichick is 16-5 after the bye, 15-5 on Monday night, and 42-9 against the NFC… so things could go well against the Panthers.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-2!

Answer to trivia question

For those who are curious about this week's trivia question, the Patriots also scored touchdowns on offense, defense, and special teams in just one other game since Bill Belichick arrived on the scene (for a total of three times):

On January 6, 2002, Antowain Smith and Jermaine Wiggins scored offensive touchdowns, Troy Brown returned a punt for a touchdown, and both Ty Law and Otis Smith returned interceptions for touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers.

It is potentially noteworthy that the two previous years in which Belichick's Patriots pulled off this feat they won the Super Bowl (2001 and 2004).  I supposed that at the very least it's a good omen that they did it in 2010 already.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  1-0!

Patriots 20, Panthers 10 (12/13/2009)

Yooooour New England Patriots took care of business, with a typical bad weather December score of 20-10 over the visiting Carolina Panthers. The game was tight in the first half and a lot more comfortable in the fourth quarter. And the win moved their record to 8-5, a game ahead of the Jets and Dolphins, both of whom won their contests. However, the Chargers victory effectively knocked the Patriots out of the running for a first-round playoff bye. San Diego leads the Pats by two games with three to play, and the Chargers hold the conference record tie-breaker.

Even though a convincing win might have felt better... you know, before the Patriots lost two consecutive games (a sin for which the local press made Bill Belichick its personal pinata), this was probably the kind of win BB wanted. Hard fought, close game where his team had to show some heart to come from behind and batten down the hatches to secure the win. But the reason he liked these games the most was the heaping helpings of humble pie he could dish out the following week. He's at his best when he has something to keep the team focused on improving, and there was plenty to complain about yesterday.

Thing #1: reduce their turnovers. They moved the ball at will on Sunday, but came away with only 20 points. At one point this season, the Patriots were second in the league in turnover ratio, but they are now seventh (+6). They've lost 12 turnovers in the last six games, and only gotten 9 back, including 5 in a meltdown by Jets QB Mark Sanchez. Take out that Jets game, and it's an aggregate -7 for the other five games since the bye week.

Yesterday it was more of the same. A Tom Brady interception led to the only Carolina touchdown. Randy Moss fumbled his only reception of the game, turning a first down at the 50 into a Carolina first down going the other way. And Sammy Morris lost the ball at the Panthers 25 on the Patriots first drive of the second half. Without those turnovers, the Patriots win this one in a walk. But giving the ball away is the easiest way to let an overmatched team hang around. Fortunately the Patriots were able to close out this game, but they won't always be so lucky.

Thing#2: create more turnovers on defense. It isn't just that the offense is giving the ball away; it's that the defense isn't forcing nearly as many as they did early in the year. They dropped two easy interceptions (James Sanders and Brandon Meriweather), and twice linebackers could have had INTs and twice they whiffed (though both would have been great plays).

Protecting the football and creating turnovers will be crucial if the Patriots plan to make some noise in the playoffs. If they continue playing like they did yesterday, it will be a one or two game playoff run, and no chance at another Super Bowl.

Thing #3: get healthy. Brady is banged up, with shoulder, finger, and rib injuries, and it showed with some inconsistent play early on. Vince Wilfork went out with an injury yesterday, and with neither Myron Pryor or Ron Brace available to clog up the middle, the Panthers ran right down their throat. And it's obvious they have six good offensive linemen but things fall apart when two of them are out. On Sunday, they got Sebastian Vollmer back, and they ran the ball effectively and protected Brady pretty well (though it wasn't perfect). Stephen Neal remains on the roster for a possible return this year. But when both of Vollmer and Neal are out, Dan Connolly is terrible at pass blocking and only marginal at run blocking.

One other note on getting healthy. They also need to *stay* healthy. Laurence Maroney hasn't proven very durable throughout his career, and he's had to shoulder the load with both Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris missing significant time. With Adalius Thomas apparently in the dog house, they were thin at linebacker yesterday, and they are very thin (especially in talent) at wide receiver, so the number of hits Wes Welker takes is a concern. Maybe rediscovering the tight end will help with that.

Thing #4: offensive creativity. Have you heard the one about (offensive coordinator) Bill O'Brien's t-shirt? Just like every Pats coach, it has his initials on it -- "B-O" in this case. Which is appropriate, given that his play-calling stinks (cue rim shot, please!). Okay, it isn't quite that bad. Without red zone turnovers, they are probably 10-3... blah blah blah.

But please shelve that fullback dive on fourth-and-short. It worked once against New Orleans, but has failed the last three times. And try mixing in more first-down running. Yesterday you rushed for 114 yards and 5.4 per carry on first down, and only 61 yards and 3.2 yards per carry on all other downs. And instead of lobs to a covered Randy Moss, try more traditional screen passes, throw in a flea-flicker or end-around twice a game (since teams over-pursue your running plays). And get Chris Baker on the field in the red zone -- he showed the ability to create separation for touchdowns, now *use* it!

Oh... but I guess you are wondering what I thought of yesterday's game. Sorry for the long rant; here's an abbreviated version of a regular update.

Brady wasn't sharp, and I think it was the injuries. Several throws came out with no spiral (which he *never* does), but he was great at getting rid of the ball before a sack. The O-line was much better, with Sebastian Vollmer and Matt Light in the lineup, and Sir Laurence Maroney was strutting his stuff, getting 94 yards on 22 tough runs. Sammy Morris continues to work his way back, and Kevin Faulk came back from a bad game against Miami to rush for 58 (including some big first downs), and do a nice job on blitz pickup. And special props to tight end Chris Baker, who blocked extremely well at the point of attack.

But on offense it was all Wes Welker. When they traded for him, The Weather God (my friend Al) called him "Troy Brown II," and he couldn't have been more right. He extended his NFL lead in total receptions on the year (now at 105), though Andre Johnson (from Houston) leap-frogged him to take the lead in yards. Yesterday Welker had 10 catches, 7 more than any other Patriots player, 105 yards, and 5 first downs. Most important were his 5 catches for 64 yards on the Pats 96-yard touchdown drive. That score came the drive after Sammy Morris' fumble, so to score when you took over at your own 4 yard-line was impressive, and it wouldn't have happened without Welker.

The defense actually looked good. They got beaten for a long touchdown, but aside from that held the Panthers to 3 points even though they didn't force a single turnover. That's a pretty good game, folks. They unleashed some of the front seven and got pressure on the QB, and aside from a few long runs after Wilfork went out, they contained the celebrated Carolina running game. Jerod Mayo looked better, but doesn't appear to be fully recovered from the knee injury. Derrick Burgess got good pressure on the QB (1 sack, 2 QB hits), and Tully Banta-Cain did a nice job holding the point against the run and getting decent pressure (though the stats don't bear it out).

The secondary was in disarray early, and they were lucky the Panthers were missing their starting QB. Brandon Meriweather missed the aforementioned INT, but he did a good job roaming the deep middle, knocking away a potential touchdown pass in the third quarter. And rookie Darius Butler played pretty well, though not perfect. But given their secondary situation, this is good experience for him and the other younger players to get.

The kicking game was fine, not much to report either way. No special teams fumbles, no big returns either way.

And one quick note on the coaching; Belichick should stop challenging plays with his heart instead of his head. He missed on a questionable call in the third quarter, and he needs to keep in mind that the standard for overturning a call is "indisputable visual evidence" not "it sort of looks like we could overturn it." Aside from that, a nice job getting his team to close out a game they might have lost three weeks ago.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: The Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, and Jets all won yesterday, so the AFC East had a perfect weekend (4-0). That is only the second time this year a division has won four games in one weekend. Trivia question: Can you name the other division to pull off that trick (answer below)? Note: extra credit if you can name the week that other division did it, and super-extra credit if you can do all of that without using the Internet. Good luck!

Where does that leave us? As mentioned, the Pats are 8-5 with a one game lead in the AFC East. They play their last division game of the year in Buffalo next Sunday, a place where Tom Brady has traditionally feasted on the opposition. Both the Jets (@Indy, vs. Cincy) and Dolphins (@Tenn, vs. Pitts) have tougher schedules down the stretch, so if the Patriots take care of business this week the other two should start to fall by the wayside.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Look, the Pats don't look like world beaters, but in the playoffs it'll all come down to matchups. Just hope we don't have to play Denver in the first round; we *never* beat them!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-5!

PPS. Trivia answer below:

V
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The NFC North teams (Bears, Packers, Vikings, and Lions) won all their games in Week 3 of this year (9/27/2009). Kudos to anyone who even guessed that division; since the Lions have only 2 wins for the entire *season*.

Patriots 17, Panthers 27 (9/18/2005)

Did yesterday’s 27-17 loss give you déjà vu, too? Seemed like the Raiders traveled to Carolina in Patriots uniforms. The team committed way too many penalties, got a long pass that led to a touchdown, had a bunch of dropped passes, committed a late turnover that led to an opponent’s touchdown, couldn’t do anything offensively for most of the game, and lost by 10 points. If that sounds familiar, it’s because I wrote something similar to that about the Raiders after the Pats beat them in the season opener.

The Patriots offense… tsk, tsk, tsk… where to start. Penalties put them in too many first-and-long situations, which in turn forced them to abandon the run and pass the ball 75% of the time (46 passing plays, 16 running plays). Seemed like every offensive lineman had a false start, and Dan Klecko’s holding penalty on 2nd-and-inches at the Carolina 23 was a killer. It led directly to Tom Brady’s only interception on a drive that could have given the Patriots the lead and momentum.

Brady was off most of the day, missing at least five open receivers, and the receivers dropped at least five catchable passes (two by Deion Branch) to go with Ben Watson’s late fumble. But it all started on the offensive line, and after some stellar pass protection early, they didn’t pass protect or run block very well at all (39 rushing yards for the game). The Pats converted only 4 of 14 third downs, which is just bad, bad, bad. They’ve got to get their discipline back to keep themselves out of long yardage, and they must do it quickly because the schedule is not getting easier. I guess we’ll know soon whether the superb play of the last few years was more Dante Scarneccia (offensive line coach) or more Joe Andruzzi and Damien Woody (offensive linemen who signed with Cleveland and Detroit, respectively).

The defense played pretty well, but was not the dominating group we’ve come to know and trust. They had one bad drive early (too much blitzing got them burned), and gave up touchdowns on “drives” of 13 and 12 yards (after a long punt return and a fumble recovery). But they added some inopportune penalties (Rosevelt Colvin negated a Patriots interception) and gave up some big passing plays. And no one had scored three rushing touchdowns on them in years. Also, with Tyrone Poole out of the game, the injury to Randall Gay forced rookie Ellis Hobbs into the fray. It didn’t cost the team dearly, but the pattern of defensive back injuries is now three years and running.

On the defensive line, Richard Seymour continues his dominant play, and Vince Wilfork is getting better. Linebackers Mike Vrabel and Willie McGinest made some big plays, and Monty Beisel is playing better in the 3-4. But Chad Brown still looked lost, new safety Gus Scott got burned at least twice, and the Patriots used the blitzed too often, becoming predictable and allowing Carolina to make big plays. You gotta take the good with the bad, but the Patriots usually don’t make those crucial mistakes.

Special teams continues to be an area of great concern. They gave up a huge punt return that led directly to a Carolina touchdown, and they were consistently bested by the Panthers on both punt and kickoff returns. Josh Miller outkicked his coverage three times, and Tim Dwight had a meandering punt return for zero yards. In fact, Carolina won the battle for punt return yardage 128 to 0. On the plus side, Adam Vinatieri’s kickoffs were consistently to the goal line, but the Carolina return teams still provided great field position for their offense.

And the coaching staff deserves their share of the blame for this one. They abandoned the running game too quickly, blitzed too often, and didn’t prepare the team adequately for the hostile environment they would face. The players made the mistakes on the field, but the special teams and offensive line coaches need to get back to the fundamentals of blocking and tackling.

So where does that leave us. Well, how about tied for first place in the mediocre AFC East. Every team in the division has one win and one loss. They’ve got a tough game in Pittsburgh, at team that seems to have righted their ship after a very bad pre-season. Their running game is back and Ben Roethlisberger has excelled, although the competition hasn’t been great.

But this type of game is just the kind where Bill Belichick has pulled out an unexpected win. Just when people were ready to write off a game (Tennessee in 2003, St. Louis in 2004), the Pats came through. Roethlisberger might wilt a bit going against a better defense, and the Patriots might switch to the 4-3 defense to slow down the running game. Of course, only time will tell. But the team is still tied for first place in the division. That’s something, isn’t it?

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “The AFC East is the definition of parity. Not only are all four teams 1-1, but as a division they’ve scored 137 points and given up 134.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-1!

Patriots 32, Panthers 29 (2/1/2004)

Well, hi there. Hope you got to watch the game and enjoyed it as much as I did. As you no-doubt know, YOOOOOUUUUUURRRRR New England Patriots won 32-29 on a last-second field goal by Adam Vinatieri, claiming their second Super Bowl Championship in three years - by a total of six points. Each half was a defensive struggle followed by an offensive explosion, with all the points being scored in the second and fourth quarters. Each team acquitted itself nicely, and I give the Panthers a lot of credit for hanging in and coming back. But in the end, experience won the day, and the Pats are world champions again.

I haven't seen the entire game (I was scrounging for tickets until mid-way through the first quarter), and I didn't get to watch the rest of the game the way I really like to, but I wanted to send my impressions. If my opinions change once I see the game this weekend (I have it on tape), I'll send a follow-up email.

Offense

First off, kudos to the Patriots offensive line and their coach Dante Scarnecchia. Three playoff games, zero sacks, and an average of 112 yards rushing a game (a 10% improvement over the regular season). The Pats controlled the clock for 38 of the 60 minutes in the Super Bowl, and a lot of the credit goes to the O-line's domination of the acknowledged best defensive line in the NFL. They used run-blocking schemes to get the Panthers defense off-balance and on their heels, and it worked to perfection. Antowain Smith hit holes big enough to fit two Ted Washington's through, and Kevin Faulk's speed and shiftiness was a great counterpoint and clearly caught the Panthers off-guard. After the game, several Panther defenders said the Pats ran the ball every time they thought they would pass and passed it whenever the Panthers thought it would be a run - a credit to Charlie Weis and the offensive play-calling.

All that said, this day really belonged to Tom Brady and the Patriot receivers. Brady had 32 completions (a Super Bowl record) for 348 yards, three touchdowns and only one interception. Deion Branch had a huge day, torching the Panthers for 143 yard on 10 catches and he appeared to be running alone most of the day. David Givens and Daniel Graham made good contributions to the attack, while the Carolina cornerbacks were exposed by Branch and Troy Brown (8 catches for 76 yards and one broken nose). They were caught out of position on run-fakes on all three touchdown passes. They just weren't good enough to jam the receivers at the line and then cover them down the field, and when they committed extra DBs in to help in coverage, it left fewer guys to rush the passer and stop the run.

And getting back to Brady, he's obviously matured as a quarterback since their last Super Bowl. He had more attempts, completions, passing yards, and touchdowns. The "just don't lose the game" mantra from Super Bowl 36 was replaced by the "go out there and win it" attitude in this game and he delivered big play after big play. League-wide, 75% of the audibles that quarterbacks call are passing plays; Brady audibled into a running play at least four times that I recall, and that keeps a defense off-balance because they're just not expecting it. And as impressive as the last drive was in both Super Bowls, each of them came with the game tied and where failure simply meant overtime. I was more impressed with the second-to-last drive because the Patriots were behind and failure to score could have meant losing the game. He really is cool under pressure, and here's hoping he stays healthy for a long time.


Defense

Ted Washington was a real key to the Patriots defense. With him clogging the middle, the Panthers rushed for an anemic 92 yards (a 30% drop from their regular season numbers), with half those yards coming on two runs (Stephen Davis's 21 yarder before the half and DeShaun Foster's 33 yard touchdown). The Panthers averaged close to 6 yards a carry, but like the Rams before them, they insisted on throwing into a defense that was more vulnerable against the run because of its deployment. That brings me to another defensive key to the game: the ability of the defensive line to get pressure without blitzing. The Pats blitzed either four or eight times in the game (depending on your source), which isn't much for them - although at least two of those resulted in sacks by Mike Vrabel. Vrabel had a career game (two sacks, a forced fumble, and a touchdown reception), and the defensive line got steady pressure and played pretty well against the run with little or no help from blitzers.

Tyrone Poole's performance was a bit sub-standard for him, and the Panthers wisely stayed away from Ty Law. In fact, Carolina had only two long scoring drives on the day, one came after Rodney Harrison was injured, and the other came after Eugene Wilson was injured, leaving the Patriots with no starting safeties in the game. After the second injury, Panther quarterback Jake Delhomme simply dropped back and threw to the deep middle for one completion after another, working his way down for his last touchdown of the game. I was impressed with the toughness and resiliency of the receivers, and Delhomme played inspired football. But in the end, their early first-half failures left them with no margin for error in the second half, and they couldn't take enough advantage against the Pats defense when it had worn down.


Special Teams

Adam missed two kicks (one wide-right, one blocked) and botched a "squib" at the end of the first half, Ken Walter had a low kicking average, and the return teams didn't do much to help the Patriots with field position. All that said, however, the Patriots special teams significantly outplayed their Carolina counterparts. Carolina has zero big returns, their punter put two through the end zone, and when the pressure was on, John Kasay put a kickoff out of bounds to give the Patriots the ball at their own 40 yard line with over a minute left in the game. At the very least, you have to kick that ball in-bounds, because even if Bethel Johnson returns it to the 40 yard line, it takes 10 or 15 seconds off the clock. The Carolina fans sitting near us said they would take Kasay in any pressure situation, but as I said in last week's email, he is not a good clutch kicker (missed three in a loss to Philly this year, missed a potential overtime game winner in the playoffs this year, and now booted one out of bounds at the worst possible time). And when the money was on the line, Adam V. came through again - right down the middle with only four seconds left. In fact, Vinatieri's kickoffs were longer than usual (must have been the extra week of rest), and the kick coverage was great. It seemed Carolina always had the long field to go. Even Ken Walter pitched in with a 51 yarder to shift field position at a critical time in the third quarter.


Coaching

This was absolutely a mismatch. The Panthers out-thought themselves in the two week run-up to the game. They didn't run often enough and couldn't pass for most of the first half. If the Pats hadn't gotten some injuries (and scored so quickly that their defense started getting tired), this could easily have been a 17- or 21-point blowout because Carolina gave up on what got them to the game. They went for two points much too early in the fourth quarter, and had to follow that up with another failed two-point attempt, never made the adjustments necessary to make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket, and never adjusted to the play-action pass near the goal line (I mean, three play-action pass touchdowns is unheard of). Meanwhile, the Patriots used run-blocking to slow the Panther defensive line, they played a soft zone instead of blitzing and that seemed to confuse Carolina, and their pressure confused the offense to the tune of four sacks and a fumble. The only mistake the Patriot coaches made was the ill-advised and poorly executed squib at the end of the half.


Conclusion

Heck of a game and a heck of a run. 15 consecutive wins speaks volumes about the resolve and resourcefulness of this team. I said weeks ago that this is one of the five or six best defenses I've ever seen, and the intervening time hasn't changed my mind at all. Tom Brady wants to get ring
#3 and I give him a great shot to get it before his career is over. But if they can hold the coaching staff together for next year, I'd give him a good chance of doing it next year. I can almost hear Belichick saying to the team: "You want to be recognized as one of the great teams of all time?
Then win it all next year and you'll have three Super Bowl wins in four years - only one other team has ever done that (Dallas Cowboys)." They've got some issues to handle in the off-season, but every team does; however, keeping the coaches together is the key to making another run in 2004. In my preseason preview, I said the following: "This may be the last year the Patriots have Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel as offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively. If the Pats have a good year, look for at least one of them to get a head coaching job." Well, if the rest of the league lacks the patience to wait for Weis or Crennel, their loss is our gain - and our gain will be the league's loss next year!

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Just like with the Rams in 2001, look for teams to attack the Panthers defensive line the same way the Patriots did in the Super Bowl. They just couldn't get a decent push against the run-blocking schemes on pass plays - it totally took them out of their game."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 3-0!

Patriots vs. Panthers Super Bowl Preview (1/28/2004)

Hey there,

So everyone keeps asking me how I think the Super Bowl will go. Well, you're about to be among the first to know.

When the Panthers have the ball.

Look for Carolina to run it as much as they can. They'll probably go deep with a couple of early pass attempts, just to keep the Pats defense honest. But for the most part, they will run with Stephen Davis and throw some short passes and try not to turn the ball over. As with many NFL games, it wouldn't surprise me if the Panthers scored on their first or second drive. Teams often have good plans for that opening salvo, but the Patriot defense will make the proper adjustments and stop the Panthers running game for most of the rest of the first half, as they have done to most every running back this season.

Unlike the last two games, I expect the Patriots will blitz a lot more against Delhomme. And early in the game, most of those will be contained blitzes on obvious passing downs, because committing a lot of blitzers against a running team can lead to big plays - draws or outside pitches for 30+ yards. The Pats have enough defensive speed to close down the 30+ inside run if the back breaks through the blitzers, but giving Davis the outside would be a major mistake. The Pats will jam the Panther receivers at the line of scrimmage, and the coverages will be complex enough to confuse both the receivers and the quarterback. And that confusion should lead to either failed drives or turnovers. The Panthers sometimes send only two or three receivers into the pattern, not enough to test the Pats defensive backfield the way the Colts and Titans did.

This is a mismatch in the Patriots favor. Carolina runs the ball well, the Patriots stop the run better than anyone. Carolina has a limited passing attack and an inexperienced quarterback, the Patriots have a fast and experienced defense that confuses even the best veteran QBs. Heck, the Titans and Colts have much more offensive talent, especially at quarterback, and each scored only 14 points against the Pats in the playoffs - so I don't expect the Panthers to score very easily. If the Patriots convert an early Carolina turnover into a touchdown, the game could be over quickly.

When the Patriots have the ball

I expect the Patriots to go deep at least twice in the first two drives. Carolina probably anticipates the Pats will use the short pass and the run to move the ball down the field. But I expect them to throw deep against coverages designed to take away the short game, and Tom Brady has hit on more big passing plays this year than the previous two combined. The Panther run defense is solid, so don't hold out much hope that the Patriots will control the ball with the run. But they will run and will have a decent average per run - they just won't run enough to control the game that way. It will fall to Brady and the receivers, and that's just fine with me. He's performed well all year, minimizing those crucial mistakes while maximizing his opportunities. The Patriots have scored an opening-drive touchdown in five straight games, and if they do so in Super Bowl XXXVIII, it will put a lot of pressure on that young Panther offense.

The Panthers are big and physical on defense, much like the Titans. They get pressure with their front four, giving them seven players to drop into coverage on pass plays. And on running plays, their front four usually occupies the entire offensive line, leaving the linebackers and defensive backs to clean up. Their linebackers and DBs are physical and will challenge the Patriot receivers at the line and over the middle - no different that most of the year, which is why the Pats had so many injuries at WR. Carolina will force the Patriots to grind out yards for most of the game, but if the Patriots get time, the Carolina secondary is vulnerable to the big play. As in the Titans game, look for Bethel Johnson early.

This is a slight advantage to Carolina. Their defense is playing well at just the right time and they are big and physical. If the Pats hadn't faced the Titans and Dolphins twice this year, I'd say they weren't ready for a physical defense, but they are. However, without a bruising running game to wear down the Carolina defense, it will be a chore to score a lot of points against them. The most important thing for the Patriots is to protect the ball - because the Panthers live for the turnover.

Special Teams

Adam Vinatieri is a better field goal kicker than John Kasay. Kasay missed three field goals in a big loss to Philadelphia, and missed a short kick in the St. Louis playoff game, whereas Vinatieri is money in the bank - no kicker you'd rather have in a big game. The kick coverage for both teams is very good, and I don't expect a lot of big plays on kickoffs. On the other hand, Todd Sauerbrun is a better punter than Ken Walter. Sauerbrun's yardage and net yardage averages were 7 and 5 yards better (respectively) than Walter's. But Ken easily beat Todd in touchback percentage (4% for Walter, 12% for Sauerbrun), kicks downed inside the 20 yard line (33% to 29%), and average kick return yards against (7 to 12). Still, all in all, I'd take Sauerbrun over Walter - although Ken has kicked better since returning against Jacksonville. I don't anticipate a lot of big returns against the Patriots, their coverage is very good, but you might see Troy Brown pop a few 20+ yarders against the Panthers.

I'd call this an ever-so-slight edge to the Patriots. The kick coverage teams are disciplined and well coached, and the kicking distance game goes slightly in favor of Carolina. But the difference in the big game is Adam Vinatieri and his golden toe. Nothing beats the knowledge of how to get it done with everything on the line, and his performances against Oakland and St. Louis two years ago say it all.

Other Factors

Both teams will benefit from the two week break. Defenses are always the major winners under such scenarios, so the Panthers will likely make it tougher on our offense because they had two weeks to prepare, just as we will do to their offense. The coaching match up is in the Patriots favor, but the "underdog" factor goes the Panthers way. So what decides it is that the Patriots have a better defense, a much better offense, and a slightly better kicking game. It won't be a blowout unless the Panthers panic and turn the ball over, which could happen but I don't expect it.

Injuries shouldn't matter much. Russ Hochstein played very well as a replacement for Damien Woody, and Ted Johnson will step in if Tedy Bruschi is injured - and that won't be as much of a factor as usual, because the Panthers don't have the passing attack to take advantage of Johnson's limitations in pass coverage. Carolina running back Stephen Davis has practiced all week and will likely be almost full speed for the game. Besides, a good running game almost always depends more on the offensive line than the actual running back, and the Panthers don't have any injuries there.

The Prediction

Since I'm going to the game, I am incapable of predicting a Patriots loss. I'd say a late turnover will turn the game from a 10-point game to a 14- or 17-point game. Let's go with 27-13.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Forget about the 14-game winning streak, did you know the Patriots haven't trailed in a game since before Thanksgiving?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-0!