Patriots 2005 Regular Season Awards (1/31/2006)

There was no bye week this year, so this is coming out a lot later than usual. I wanted to take a few minutes to honor the best players on the team for 2005. Certainly a drop from 14-2 to 10-6 means that some of the players had off years, but there were distinct bright spots and I don’t want those performances lost in the post-season disappointment.

The Offense

Most Valuable Offensive Player: Tom Brady

Honorable Mention: None.

No Patriot was in the same class as Tom Brady this year. When faced with a brutal schedule and many key injuries, he engineered late drives against Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Miami to win each of those games. He wasn’t perfect. But by winning those four games, he kept the team near .500 and their late surge (winning 7 of 8 games) gave them the division title. Without those early wins, they would have been 1-8 and would have missed the playoffs. He led the NFL in passing yards for the first time, and 2005 was simply his best regular season. It always amazes me that he gets better; but somehow he does it every season.

Most Improved Offensive Player: Deion Branch

Honorable Mention: Ben Watson, Patrick Pass, Nick Kazcur

Deion became the go-to receiver this season, more than doubling his number of catches (from 35 to 78), yards (454 to 998), and first downs (27 to 51). Granted, he played 16 games, as opposed to only 9 last year, but that durability was crucial this season, as Andre Davis was not an adequate replacement for David Patten and Bethel Johnson spent much of the year either injured or in the dog house. With all that uncertainty at wide out, Branch’s consistent, dependable, and sometimes spectacular performances were sorely needed.

Ben Watson improved by playing in 15 games instead of the 1 he had last year, and his 29 catches (22 for first downs) are better than what the Patriots have averaged from the tight end position the past few years. Patrick Pass ran for more yards, a higher average, and more first downs, and the fans chose him as the Pro Bowl fullback (though the players/coaches voting knocked him off the team). Anyone who saw Nick Kazcur in his first and last games this year (both against Denver) couldn’t help but see the vast improvement this rookie made.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Nick Kazcur and Logan Mankins

Honorable Mention: None

I couldn’t choose between Kazcur and Mankins. Offensive line play is difficult enough to break down, and I can’t grade out individual linemen very well while watching the games. However, with both these rookies playing to Tom Brady’s blind side, the season could have gone down in flames early; but they overcame early difficulties and held it together enough to make a playoff run. Suffice it to say the future looks very bright along the offensive line, with young players at every position and depth galore on next season's roster.

The Defense

Most Valuable Defensive Player: Richard Seymour

Honorable Mention: Mike Vrabel

Seymour’s 46 tackles, 4 sacks, and 4 passes defense don’t sound too impressive. But the guy simply can’t be blocked one-one-one anymore, and that always means either someone else is free to make a play or that Richard is free to make it. He possesses everything you want in a defensive lineman: speed, explosive strength, great instincts, leverage, discipline – did I miss anything? They say the proof is in the pudding, so consider this: from the time Richard was injured against San Diego until he returned, the team was outscored by an average of 31.6 – 21.7 per game, and allowed their two highest scoring totals of the season (41 and 40). After he returned, they outscored their opponents by an average of 24.0 – 14.8, and gave up their four lowest scoring totals of the season (3, 7, 0, and 3). And it wasn't just bad competition; the two excellent teams they played without Seymour averaged 40.5 points playing in Gillette Stadium (San Diego, and Indianapolis), while the only excellent offensive team they played without Seymour scored only 26 points, even though it was a home game for the opponent (in Kansas City).

Mike Vrabel’s versatility and ability were crucial to the Patriots late-season run. With Tedy Bruschi’s stroke, the Pats needed Vrabel to move to inside linebacker and replace Monty Beisel (who was stinking up the joint every week). All Vrabel did was have his best season ever, posting career highs in tackles (108), interceptions (2), and touchdowns (4, including three on offense).

Most Improved Defensive Player: Rosevelt Colvin

Honorable Mention: Mike Vrabel, Ellis Hobbs, Vince Wilfork

The 2005 Rosevelt Colvin was the version we all thought we were getting in 2003, when the Pats signed him away from the Bears for big money. Alas, his 2003 season went up in smoke when he suffered a career-threatening injury in the second game. 2004 was like an extended rehabilitation; but he showed flashes toward the end of the year, notching one sack and two forced fumbles in his last four games. But in 2005, the old fire was back, with Colvin flying off the corner and busting through the middle for 7 sacks and many quarterback “pressures.” He was near his career high in tackles (60), and spent the second half of 2005 disrupting just about everything the opposition did.

For more information on Mike Vrabel, see above. Ellis Hobbs moved from rookie special teamer to starting cornerback, and his ascension to starter provided the stability needed to start dominating again. And Vince Wilfork improved from a non-performer early to a dominant nose guard late. Here’s hoping he comes out of training camp on fire next year.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Ellis Hobbs

Honorable Mention: None

When Tyrone Poole and Randall Gay went down, poor Duane Starks was thrust into the starting lineup, and he was injured and he sucked. So about mid-season, the Patriots were desperate to plug that hole and they threw Ellis into the fray. By the end of the season, teams were purposely throwing and running away from his side of the field (Miami threw one pass his way, he knocked it down). Now that is respect. Need more? Okay, NFL.com analyst Gil Brandt named Hobbs a cornerback on the his All-Rookie Team (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9169011). Still more? How about this: Sports Illustrated football writer, Don Banks, wrote a story about how the first round of last year’s draft would have gone if teams knew then what they know now. In the story (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/don_banks/12/29/draft.redo/index.html), Hobbs jumped from the 84th pick to the 15th pick, and was Banks’s second cornerback taken. Hobbs was one of the best rookies in the entire league; no way he’d lose this award on his own team.

The Special Teams

Most Valuable Special Teams Player: Josh Miller

Honorable Mention: Michael Stone

Miller improved in almost every significant special teams statistic. Better average (from 42.0 to 45.1), more kicks downed inside the 20 (19 to 22), fewer touchbacks (5 to 4), fewer yards per return (11.8 to 9.6), and a better net average (33.7. to 38.3). He was fourth in the NFL in net punt yardage, and had only 4 touchbacks in 16 games – and trust me, he punted a lot in those games (20 more times in 2005 than in 2004). He was also the holder on field goals and I never saw him botch one.

I love seeing Michael Stone fly down the sideline and make a hit. Now if we can just keep him off the field during the regular defensive snaps, we’d be getting somewhere.

Most Improved Special Teams Player: Josh Miller

Honorable Mention: Lonnie Paxton

For information on Miller, see above.

As for Paxton, I can’t remember a single bad snap this entire season. Not one. Add to that the five or six tackles he made and the two times he kept punts from going into the end zone, and he had an out-standing year for a long snapper. His snaps were all good in 2004, too; but he made more plays in 2005.

Special Teams Rookie of the Year: Ellis Hobbs

Honorable Mention: None

Ellis Hobbs should not be remember just for the one fumbled kickoff return in the playoffs. He had a very solid 24-yard return average on 15 returns this season.

And that does it for the 2005 season. Everything from here forward will be looking ahead to 2006 and beyond.

My Super Bowl prediction: Seahawks 27, Steelers 17.

Enjoy the off season,

- Scott

Patriots 13, Broncos 27 (1/14/2006)

The self-inflicted losses are always the toughest. In a surprising role-reversal, your New England Patriots turned the ball over five times (yikes, was it *really* five?) and the Denver Broncos capitalized with a 27-13 win in Denver. Not that it matters now, but if the Pats had protected the ball and won the game, they'd host the Pittsburgh Steelers in next weekend's AFC Championship Game -- and I would have been there, dammit!! As you probably heard already, the loss sends the Pats home for the off-season, and here's hoping they hit a few free agency home runs and make another Super Bowl run next year.

As for this game, a lot of it came out the way I predicted it would (Broncos ran for only 96 yards, Denver held a halftime lead, Patriots came back in the second half), but a lot of it was beyond my powers as an NFL psychic. After six turnovers in their previous 10 playoff games, the Pats committed five in one game, and Denver was the beneficiary of their kindness. And it wasn't bit players; Kevin Faulk started the season of giving with a fumble just before the half; Tom Brady threw two INTs, and Troy Brown's devastating dropped punt was the final nail in the coffin. You know your team had trouble when the opponent scored on drives of 1, 1, 7, and 15 yards.

The offense was the main culprit. The blitz pick up was terrible all night, with Denver defenders flying free at the quarterback on half of the passing plays. Brady wasn't sacked, but he hurried many throws and threw off his back foot far too often. And the predictable results were throws that missed the mark and Brady's lazy interception late in the third quarter. That play changed the entire game. Instead of kicking an easy field goal to cut the deficit to 1 point (would have been 10-9), the INT led to a one-yard Bronco touchdown and a 17-6 Denver lead. The Patriots never recovered.

As for the running offense, it was okay at best. 79 yards and a 3.8 per rush average were good enough to keep the Denver defense honest, and both Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk helped some in the passing game. But Faulk's killer fumble with less than two minutes to play in the first half started a chain reaction that added up to a 10-3 halftime deficit instead of a 3-0, 6-0, or 10-0 halftime lead. The fumble (the only one that Denver really caused) was followed by a brutally bad pass interference call and then a one-yard touchdown plunge. Then, Ellis Hobbs fumbled on the ensuing kickoff and Denver kicked a field goal. 10 points for the half, all on turnovers, and all in the last two minutes. Just awful. The kind of playoff performance you expect from a first time entrant (like Jacksonville), not the defending Super Bowl Champions.

Lost in the defeat was a great performance by Deion Branch (8 catches for 153 yards). But then, most all great performances get lost when you team is done for the year.

The defense did everything they could, except force more turnovers. They held the Broncos vaunted running game to only 96 yard, a significant upgrade from the first game's 178 yards. (Note: Denver out rushed the Patriots 2-to-1 in the first game, but barely out gained them on the ground this time.) Ty Warren, Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Mike Vrabel and the rest of the front seven made sure that Jake Plummer would have to win by passing, not with the steady pounding of the running game. The only way the defense could make up for the short field given up by the offense and special teams would be to get turnovers themselves. And that was not their strength this year; they had only 18 takeaways for the entire season, barely 1 per game. Well, they got their 1 interception this game (a great play by Asante Samuel), but it wasn't enough to make up for 5 giveaways.

The secondary did a decent job; intercepting once and keeping the Bronco receivers in front of them most of the game. This supposed weakness kept the Broncos in check for all but two sustained drives (an early 60-yard drive that ended with the Broncos failing on a fourth-and-one, and a late 61-yard drive that ended with a Bronco field goal). Again, without the short field, the defense played well enough to win, but no NFL team can consistently stop any other NFL team when start so close to their own goal line.

Special teams were especially horrible. Ellis Hobbs fumbled a kickoff when hit by the *kicker*, and Troy Brown muffed a punt that set up Denver's last touchdown and sealed the win for the Broncos. Troy's fumble seemed especially brutal when the Patriots next drive was 2 plays for 77 yards and a quick touchdown. If the same drive happened after a Troy Brown fair catch instead, the score would have read 17-13 Denver with almost 10 minutes to go -- *still* a winnable game, despite all the problems. Add to that Adam Vinatieri's missed 43-yard field goal (which would have made it a one-score game with almost 13 minutes to play), and it was a sorry, sorry exhibition of special teams.

So where does that leave us. Combined with a Pittsburgh win on Sunday, the Patriots would have hosted the AFC Championship game next Sunday. Instead, they will watch Denver host the game. They might be looking to replace defensive coordinator Eric Mangini (reportedly going to the Jets), and will undoubtedly hire a much needed offensive coordinator (they went without one this year). Free agency starts in early-February, and the draft is in April. Usually, we would wait a few more weeks before talk of reloading, but Saturday's loss leaves nothing else to talk about this year.

In the next week, I'll send my regular season awards email. Sorry I didn't send it sooner, but I never got the chance with all the action at the end of the year and no playoff bye week. Even though this loss is disappointing, the season had some bright spots. I'll try to highlight them in that email.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sometimes it isn't so much the turnovers as when they happen. The first four turnovers all cost the Patriots a lead or cost them a chance to make it a one-score game."

Keep the faith (for 2006),

- Scott

PS.

1-1!
&
11-7!

Preview of Patriots vs. Broncos (1/12/2006)

Patriots/Broncos has to be one of the most lopsided rivalries in NFL history. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the Broncos have a 16-5 record against the Pats, have never lost to them in the playoffs (1-0), and regularly beat the snot out of them (average score in their victories is 29-14). And it wasn't just a bunch of home games in the thin air of Denver; they won at home, on the road, early in the year, late in the year, when they went 5-9, when they went 14-2, with Craig Morton or John Elway or Brian Griese at quarterback, in the regular season, and in the playoffs... you name the circumstance and somehow they always seem to beat the Patriots. And that is really what makes this weekend's game in Denver so tough and so intriguing all at the same time.

I will break down this game the same way I did for last year's playoffs-- by using the earlier game between the teams (the Broncos won 28-20 on October 16, 2005) as a springboard to investigate any substantial changes that might play a role in changing the outcome. And note: even though the first game was an eight-point loss, I'm treating it as if it was a 14-point loss -- because the Broncos really did smack the Patriots around. And as usual, if you are short on time, you can skip forward to the Summary section for the main points in bullet-list format.

Point #1: The Broncos won't move the ball as easily or score as often as they did in October.

Here's a short list of the Patriots defenders who didn't play in October but will play on Saturday: Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Ellis Hobbs, and Artrell Hawkins. Additionally, Rosevelt Colvin is playing at least twice as well now, Monty Beisel won't be starting (though he's playing much better in the substitution role), Chad Brown will see spot duty on passing downs, Jarvis Green can go back to being a backup, and Duane "Doh" Starks and James "Where am I" Sanders are out for the year. Also remember that the first Broncos game was Mike Vrabel's initial game at inside linebacker, and he's had 11 games to get better (and has he *ever* gotten better).

So don't expect that the Broncos will rush for 178 yards (the Pats have given up an average of only 42 yards in the last five games -- excluding the "pre-season" game against Miami) or that Tatum Bell will gash them for a 68-yard burst. And don't expect that Denver QB Jake Plummer will post a 134.4 passer rating or that Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie will run free for 50+ yard receptions.

No Monty Beisel or Duane Starks to abuse, vastly improved play in all phases of defense, and better defensive play-calling means less offensive output for the Broncos.

Point #2: The Patriots offense has improved, too.

Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk will play on Saturday (after missing the earlier game), and that means Patrick Pass won't lead the team in rushing and Amos Zereoue won't miss any blitz pickup on third down. And playing Troy Brown instead of Tim Dwight is trading a proven playoff performer for a guy with questionable hands. Logan Mankins, Nick Kazcur, and Russ Hochstein will anchor a much improved offensive line. Hochstein replaced center Dan Koppen because of an injury and the team has rushed the ball better ever since. Kazcur has improved almost every game since getting schooled by the veteran Broncos defensive line, and Mankins is unlikely to be ejected at the half again.

The Broncos defense is a little banged up, but even if it wasn't, I'd predict the Patriots would do better on offense. Getting Dillon and Faulk back is huge, and the O-line will definitely play better than they did in the first game.

Point #3: The Patriots need to keep the game manageable so they have a chance to close the gap in the second half.

Even with improved offense and defense, I still expect the Broncos to get a first half lead. In the five Patriots/Broncos games prior to Bill Belichick's arrival, the Broncos out-scored the Pats 52-13 in the first quarter. In the five games under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have won that battle 34-21. But they seem to have moved the carnage from the first quarter to the second quarter, where Denver only out-scored them 36-27 prior to Belichick but has pasted them 51-27 since. In fact, the Pats scored first in the game this past October, and even held Denver to zero points on three drives in the first quarter. But Denver's 21-0 second quarter put the game on ice before halftime.

The Patriots are a much better second half team this season. In 12 of 17 games, they scored more points in the second half. In 10 of 17 games, they gave up fewer points in the second half or had first half shutouts (three times). All in all, they've played about even in the first half (175-171), but they've dominated the second half (236-166). So if they fall behind early, there's no need to panic.

If the Patriots are within 10 points at the half, they should trust their ability to come back in the third and fourth quarters.

Point #4: Bill Belichick has a stellar record when playing a team for the second time in a year.

Including the playoffs, Bill Belichick's Patriots are 20-4 the second time they play a team in the same season. And two of those losses were meaningless games against Miami. It's obvious that Belichick uses the first game to learn about his opponents and then makes a better plan the second time around. Belichick's D always tightens things up the second time around, humbling everyone from league MVPs (Peyton Manning and Steve McNair) to NFL rushing champions (Curtis Martin).

Now, due to scheduling and injury factors, October's game against the Patriots was the first time Jake Plummer played a Belichick defense, and the defense he faced wasn't at full strength. But with the Patriots returning to their complex blitz packages, press coverage, and greatly improved run-stopping, Jake will have to produce more than he did in the first game. And that might be the crux of the issue; because the Broncos can't just force the run down the Patriost throat and the Pats pass defense will not be as easily beaten as it was in October.

All of which leads to the question of whether or not Jake can make big plays in playoff pressure situations. They didn't ask him to do much during the season; he had only 18 touchdowns for the year. By comparison, consider that Ben "the next big thing" Roethlisberger had only 17 touchdowns last season, and the Patriots toyed with him in a 41-27 blowout win in the playoffs. In fact, the more I think about this Saturday's game, it feels a lot like last year's Pittsburgh game.

Also noteworthy: Belichick's playoff record when playing a team the second time that year: 5-0.

Summary:

1. The Patriots defense is much healthier now than they were for the October game, and they will not allow as many long plays or such an impressive quarterback performance this time.

2. The Patriots offense has also gotten healthy (although not to the same extent), and having Kevin Faulk, Troy Brown, et al on the field will mean more time of possession (the Broncos won that battle 32:17 to 27:43 in the first game). And all of that translates into more points and a well-rested defense.

3. The Patriots need to keep the score reasonably close in the first half, because Denver is a better first half team and New England is a better second half team.

4. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 20-4 when playing a team for the second time in a year. They are 5-0 in the playoffs.

Some other Quick Points:

A. Belichick used the season-ending Miami game and the Jacksonville playoff game as pseudo-bye weeks. He rested almost every starter against Miami and for most of the second half against Jacksonville, so the players should be fresh.

B. Denver's best chance to win is to build at least a 14-point first half lead. If it's closer than 10 points, the Patriots will likely come back to win.

C. For all the Patriots problems in the first game, they held the Broncos to 13 yards on the first two drives combined, but the offense let the team down by scoring only 3 points during that stretch.

The Bottom Line:

So where does that leave us. Well, I think that enough factors have changed since October to even up the blowout loss. Denver will still get out to a lead in the first half (otherwise, they're toast), and the Patriots will definitely mount a comeback, and the score will be close. I just think the Patriots defense is so much better against the run now than it was then, and Jake Plummer will have to beat them through the air. He did it in the first game with no pressure (only 1 sack of Plummer) against a bad secondary; but I doubt he can do it against a lot of pressure (Pats have 24 sacks in their last 6 games) and a vastly improved secondary.

The Pats can't stop the Denver running game, but Belichick will make it a priority to slow it down. And the Pats offense can score enough to make the Broncos take some chances in the passing game. Once that happens, it comes down to whether Jake Plummer reverts to form (150 touchdowns and 148 interceptions in his career) or continues to be the efficient/steady/mistake-free quarterback of the 2005 regular season. (BTW, he had similar stats two years ago and still lost big in the playoffs.) My bet is he'll revert to old habits when under pressure, and if the Patriots can keep him in the pocket, he won't beat them often enough to win the game. Call me crazy, but I'll take Tom Brady over Jake Plummer any day. Patriots win a close one, 27-21.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Since Belichick got here, the Patriots are 20-4 when they play a team for the second time in a season. That includes 5-0 in the playoffs."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

1-0!
&
11-6!

Patriots 28, Jaguars 3 (1/7/2006)

Now don't get me wrong; I don't want to go through the Wild-card round every year, but Saturday night was one last chance for the Patriots to exhibit total dominance over a lesser NFL team. As you probably know by now, the Patriots whacked the Jacksonville Jaguars and their feeble Super Bowl hopes 28-3. It was the exact same score as the first playoff game I ever attended (a 1996 rout of Pittsburgh in Foxboro Stadium), and was such a blowout that the stadium was half-empty when the fourth quarter began. The win combined with a Steeler win on Sunday sends the Patriots to Denver next Saturday for another prime time winner-advances-loser-goes-home game. That game won't be as easy as the Jags game, but more on that in my next email.

In Saturday's tilt, the offense had a mediocre first half (don’t they always?) and a stellar third quarter, with two touchdowns and a 2:1 time of possession ratio. For the game, the offensive line did a great job, opening holes for a 6-yard rushing average and often giving Brady time to look through all his options twice before throwing. Brady was sacked four times, but at least a dozen other times he stood back there longer than any quarterback should be allowed to. Statistically, Brady had an outstanding game (15 for 27 for 201 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs). But to be frank, he missed enough throws that I’m starting to wonder if his right shoulder really is bothering him. I mean, he is on the injury list... every freakin' week.

The running game didn’t exactly control the clock (118 yards on the night), but it was effective enough to slow the pass rush and keep the defense honest. Kevin Faulk played a great game, gashing Jacksonville for 8.5 yards a carry and making some crucial third-down receptions. The Jaguars often committed no more than five players to the run, obviously determined to stop the Patriots passing attack by blanketing receivers. But eventually the receivers got open enough and Brady hit them most of the time. Ben Watson had a terrific catch-and-run, breaking three tackles on the 63-yard touchdown.

However, the offense made enough errors that a repeat performance will undoubtedly cost them the game next week. Besides the aforementioned four sacks, they fumbled four times (fortunately recovering them all), the offensive line committed three holding penalties and a false start, and both Ben Watson and Deion Branch dropped passes they should have caught. And Branch’s was a killer because it was a certain touchdown at the end of the first half, which would have made it 14-3. No complaints about the outcome this week, but they need to shore up some things if they expect to beat Denver and continue in the playoffs.

The defense wasn’t perfect either, but it was a wonder to behold. They held the Jaguars to one third-down conversions (to go along with only one fourth down conversion) for the entire game, slowed the running game (only 87 yards), and allowed the Jags starting QB a paltry 61.1 quarterback rating (lower than his very bad 63.3 when he last played in Foxboro – as a rookie). There were a few too many receivers running free, and a half-dozen dropped passes by the Jags helped out. But the D was obviously stoked to stop the run and make Leftwich beat them, and when they made the Jags on-dimensional, it was all over.

Willie McGinest and Mike Vrabel were a two-man wrecking crew on Saturday. Willie notched an NFL playoff record 4.5 sacks in the game (making him the all-time playoff sack leader with 16) and 8 total tackles. Vrabel led a linebacking corps that was missing Tedy Bruschi (did not play because of a calf injury), and he cleaned up in the running game (making four tackles on a single drive in the third quarter). The team notched six sacks, with the linebackers getting credit for 5.5 of them, so you know what a game they had. Even Monty Beisel and a rotation of Chad Brown, Matt Chatham, and Tully Banta-Cain filled in well for Bruschi; though I’d rather see Tedy back in there next week.

The defensive line and secondary worked in perfect sync to slow down the passing game. Time after time, Leftwich would drop back to pass and just as he wanted to throw, he’d stop and pull the ball down because the receiver was covered. And the extra second he needed to chose another target gave the line just enough time to get a sack, a hit, or to move him out of the pocket (where he was not effective throwing the ball). On the line, Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork played well, with Wilfork coming out in the second half when it was obvious the Jaguars were no longer going to run (40 of their 87 yards rushing came on quarterback scrambles). Oh, and Eugene Wilson had one of those vintage Patriots secondary hits that forced a Jacksonville fumble and stopped another drive. Just a great overall defensive effort; one of the things that makes football such an enjoyable game.

The special teams were pretty special, too. Long-snapper Lonnie Paxton made a great tackle on the team's first punt, and on a punt by Adam Vinatieri punted (on a fake field goal), he barreled down field to keep the ball out of the end zone and helped down it at the 4. Michael Stone and Andre Davis had a couple of nice special teams tackles each (and Davis had a crucial fumble recovery on offense), and the team enjoyed field position almost 10 yards better than Jacksonville's.

As for the coaching staff, they put Asante Samuel in the perfect position to intercept Leftwich and run it back 73 yards for a touchdown, and their plan to rest during the Miami game so that they could play Jacksonville looks pretty smart. And of course, they took away what Jacksonville does well (run the ball and physically dominate) and made them try to win with passing and finesse. And as usual, no dice.

So where does that leave us. Well, the win puts them at 1-0 in the playoffs (11-6 for the year) and gives them a date with Mike Shanahan and his running brigade in Denver next Saturday. That game won't be easy, but as I said before, I'll look at their game from earlier this season and see if enough has changed to change the outcome (Denver won, 28-20). The Pats 10 consecutive playoff wins is a new NFL record, and Bill Belichick continued to build his best-ever .909 winning percentage in the post-season. And this weekend, the Patriots have a chance to make a little more history by winning two playoff games the year after winning a second consecutive Super Bowl. Not only has no team ever won three straight Super Bowls, no one has ever even come close to getting back to a Super Bowl. And the Patriots have a chance to get closer this weekend. Should be fun.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Patriots tight ends have two of the best catch-and-run plays of this entire season. Daniel Graham's 'hurdle an offensive lineman and blast through two defensive backs' effort against Atlanta and Ben Watson's 'break three tackles and outrun the secondary' special this past weekend were amazing efforts."

(Note: not that I want to toot my own horn; but all four playoff losers from last weekend were listed in the "Lovely Parting Gifts" section of last week's playoff preview, even though three of them were playing at home. Woo-hoo!)

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

1-0!
&
11-6!

2005 Playoff Preview

Here we are; finally at the real season, the NFL playoffs. 12 teams vying to win enough games to play in the last game of the year in Detroit, Super Bowl XL, and of course, all hoping they can win that game, too. But as we know, not all playoff teams are created equal. Some are just about a lock to go to Detroit, others have no prayer, and still others could go either way. And I'm here to help you separate the wheat from the chaff. And so, here are my rankings of each team and why I think they can or cannot get to the big game in February. (Note: if you're only interested in the Patriots game, skip forward to the "Patriots vs. Jaguars" section.)

Cream of the Crop:

1. The Indianapolis Colts have the best chance to win Super Bowl XL. They have home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, a great passing game, a very good running game, and a defense that is good enough to complement their amazing offense. Clearly the team to beat.

2. The Denver Broncos are slightly behind the Colts because Jake Plummer is still unproven. Plummer has been near-perfect for a lot of the season (18 touchdowns, 7 INTs), and the brilliant running game has allowed him to thrive. If Plummer can handle the increased stress of the post-season, the Broncos have a great chance to get to Detroit. But there's still an "if" at the front of that sentence.

Other Contenders:

3. Your New England Patriots got healthy and ended the season on a roll. The starting Patriots defense held their last four "real" opponents to an average of 31.25 rushing yards per game (excluding the Miami playoff tune-up), and the key to their post-season dreams is whether they can continue to stop the run with their front-seven. If they have to commit defensive backs to the run, they are finished; so the D-line and linebackers must play well.

4. The Chicago Bears have a bye week, home field for their first game, a savage and opportunistic defense, and they play in the NFC. The offense is the worst among the playoff teams, but never, never, never forget that defense wins championships (especially a defense that forces turnovers; the Bears had 32 this year). And also remember that a great defense can overcome uncertainty at QB.

5. The Seattle Seahawks have the game's best running back, a QB who completes 65% of his passes (and had only 9 INTs all year), and the seventh best defense in the NFL. So why are they at the bottom of the list of contenders? Because they played easiest schedule among the playoff teams (opponents winning percentage was .430), so they are not battle-tested, and their QB has proven nothing. In fact, if they didn't have a first-round bye, they'd be in the next category down.

Not Quite There:

6. The Pittsburgh Steelers have the running game to plough their way to the Super Bowl, but I don't think they can win it. You simply can't ride a running game to a championship; you need either a very good passing game or an historic defense (see the Chicago Bears, above). The Steeler defense simply isn't good enough to carry the offense, and the offense isn't diverse enough to carry the team.

7. Washington is the only other sleeper with a chance. Joe Gibbs has won three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks, and he's getting enough out of QB Marc Brunnel, receiver Santana Moss, and running back Clinton Portis to make some noise in the playoffs. The defense is a little suspect, but I'd give them a better shot than the five teams listed below.

Lovely Parting Gifts:

8. The Carolina Panthers are the only team out there that I don't think has gotten the proper respect. QB Jake Delhomme proved he could play with the big boys when he nearly pulled off a Super Bowl upset against the Patriots; I always thought DeShaun Foster was a better running back than Steven Davis, and WR Steve Smith is a monster to try to control. Their problem is their defense is banged up and they haven't beaten much of anyone this year. They've got a puncher's chance to make the NFC Championship game, but their road woes against good teams makes even that unlikely.

9. Cincinnati has a fantastic offense but can't stop anyone.

10. The New York Giants have Tiki Barber, but he's offset by Eli Manning. Manning might turn out to be great, but the Giants lack two things you need in the playoffs: a pressure-proven kicker, and the ability to stop the run. The Giants kicker is terrible under pressure and the defense recently gave up 156 rushing yards to Washington, 174 to Kansas City, and 175 to a bad Eagles team.

11. The Jacksonville Jaguars are like the Pittsburgh Steelers Light. They do everything not-quite-as-well as the Steelers, and their problems at QB will likely doom them in the playoffs. Besides, they have to travel north and win in the freezing cold this Saturday just to stay alive; and you know I would *never* predict they could do that.

12. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can't win this year. QB is too inexperienced, their running game is too easy to shut down, and their defense isn't good enough to counter those two problems.

Patriots vs. Jaguars

So now that that's out of the way, how will the game go this Saturday, you ask? Well, here are some points of interest.

Point #1: It's easy to claim the weather means nothing... until your January trip to Foxboro.

The Jaguars have a pretty good record in December/January games up north. They are 7-8 under such conditions, including wins in the playoffs. But they are 1-4 all time against the Patriots (their only win coming at home in the playoffs), and in his only game against the Pats, Byron Leftwich (Saturday's starting QB) salvaged his otherwise awful day by tossing a very late touchdown pass to lift his QB rating from a terrible 51.3 to a very bad 63.3.

Just for the record, the high temperature in Jacksonville today is 71; the high temperature during the game Saturday will be 26.

Point #2: The Patriots offense can't help but start the game faster without a bye week. Can they?

Since Bill Belichick took over as head coach, the Patriots have played eleven games after bye weeks. They have scored zero points in the first quarter in seven of them. They average less than 3 points per first quarter and less than 8 points per first half in games after a bye. Maybe it's the offensive timing, or the rhythm of playing every week, or maybe it's their bye week routine; but something slows them down when they wait an extra week. Now is the time to prove they can start fast and stay ahead; 'cause if they fall behind, it could be a very tough game.

Point #3: Quarterback uncertainty could unravel the Jaguars.

If there's one lesson from seasons past, it is this: don't change your quarterback late in the season if you expect to go far in the playoffs. Byron Leftwich got injured earlier this year, and David Gerrard is 5-1 since replacing him. But the Jaguars decided to put Leftwich back in for their first playoff game, which is insane. If this was November, you could still make the change and the new/old QB would have a month to get back in sync with the rest of the offense. But as a friend of mine pointed out, this would be like starting the 2002 "Snow Bowl" (vs. Oakland) with Drew Bledsoe under center for the first time in two months.

It might work this weekend; Leftwich could lead them to victory as they rally around him. But you basically give up any chance to win the Super Bowl, and that's what it's supposed to be about.

Point #4: The Jaguars are big and strong and will try to impose their will on the Patriots. But if that doesn't work, they have no backup plan.

One thing you need in the playoffs is the flexibility to change things if your initial plan fails. But the Jaguars simply don't have the speed or complexity on offense to change a failing game plan. Nor do they have enough flex on defense to change much if that fails. Granted, their defense is very good and their offense is pretty good. But if they can't run the ball up the middle or over-power the secondary with their big receivers, what will they try next? Screen passes? three-step drops? end-arounds? fumble-rooskie?

Summary

So here's how I see the game. The Patriots haven't played the iron of the league recently, but they did play teams with very good defenses (Miami, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, and New York [Jets]). However, Jacksonville played some of the worst defenses in the NFL (Tennessee, Houston, San Francisco), so it's interesting to me that the Patriots offense still has a slight edge in almost every offensive category over the last five games:

Points: 136 to 126
First downs: 120 to 111
3rd-down conversions: 50% to 40%
Average total yards: 361 to 336
Average time of possession: 35:46 to 31:35 Fumbles lost: 0 to 4

I think that means the Patriot offense is playing significantly better than the Jaguar offense at this point in the season. The two defenses are probably about equal, but I think the Patriots will be able to score more easily and regularly, which will put the Jaguars into the precarious position of trying to come back on the road in the playoffs. And folks, that just doesn't happen very often.

The Jaguars are good at coming back; but their four losses this year were all to quality teams that they fell behind. Anyone can come back to beat the Browns or 49ers, but when the Jags started losing to the Colts and Broncos, they had no real answers. Their only comeback victory over a 2005 playoff team was a 23-17 win over Pittsburgh -- and they needed overtime to pull that one out.

No comebacks this week, no overtime, no miracles for the warm-weather Jaguars. Patriots 27, Jaguars 16.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Expect Indy, Denver, Seattle and/or Chicago in the big game this year. Since the NFL went to their current playoff format, 25 of the 30 Super Bowl teams have had a first-round playoff bye."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.

0-0!
&
10-6!

Patriots 28, Dolphins 29 (1/1/2006)

This is just a place-holder email, because there is so little to write about the game. Your New England Patriots lost 28-26, but it didn't mean anything in the standings or as we go forward into the playoffs. The starters played the first three drives, and yet Miami (playing their starters the entire game) barely hung on for the win. Here's the quick-hit email, which will be followed on Thursday with a much more informative one in the lead-up to the Jacksonville playoff game (Saturday night, 8:00 -- make your plans early).

1. Matt Cassel acquitted himself nicely. 11 of 20 for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no INTs. Much better than his disastrous performance against San Diego earlier in the year. (Note: New England's "other" quarterback finished with a league-leading 4,110 yards.)

2. Linebacker Matt Chatham might be a starter soon. He's usually on special teams, but had a great game once he was elevated to the starting role, leading the team with 8 tackles and even throwing in a sack for good measure.

3. I really like this guy, Michael Stone -- as long as he only plays on special teams. If he gets significant time at safety in the playoffs, the Patriots will not go far. Too many blown assignments, too easy to fake out, just not there yet.

4. It is somehow beyond me how Eugene Wilson could play the entire game and get only two tackles. Usually, that would be a good sign (fewer tackles by the safeties often means good play by the front seven), but it didn't look or feel like that to me.

5. I've seen too much of Tim Dwight at receiver. Bring back Troy Brown, and do it now!

6. Doug Flutie, what a kicker!

That really is about it. Not much to say after the fifth "pre-season" game this year. They are in the playoffs, will battle Jacksonville Saturday (I'll be there, screaming myself silly), and 10-6 was good enough to win the division so I guess they treated this week as their "bye."

Enjoy the next few days, and I'll fill you head with information this Thursday so you'll be ready to go on Saturday.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sure, the Dolphins won their last six games, but four of the six teams were terrible and the Patriots almost beat them with their second and third string. And next year's schedule won't be as kind to them, with games against Jacksonville, Indy, Pittsburgh, and Chicago,"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-6!

Patriots 31, Jets 21 (12/26/2005)

There might not be enough synonyms for “domination” to write my usual update. You just don’t usually see ass-whoppins like that in the NFL, but the Patriots completely "own3d" the Jets, dealing them a 31 to 21 loss that felt more like 31 to 2.1. The win moved them to 10-5 on the year and kept alive their chances for the third playoff seed and a first-round game against Pittsburgh instead of Jacksonville. Not that that’s a good thing (for reasons I’ll delve into later), but the higher your seeding, the better your chances of hosting more playoff games. And of course, you never want to head into the playoffs on a losing streak.

The offense seemed bored at times, as if they were more interested in wearing down the Jet defense than scoring. They had 50 rushing attempts (versus 33 pass plays), and even when facing 8- and 9-man fronts they ran effectively enough to keep the ball for 43:21 (72% of the 60 minutes in the game). Corey Dillon ploughed for 77 tough yards, and Kevin Faulk and Patrick Pass were effective as change-of-pace backs (13 rushes for 52 yards). The O-line didn’t get a huge push, but they did move the Jet defenders backwards. Special mention goes to offensive lineman Tom Ashworth, who played a lot of fullback and has made his transition to that role seamlessly. Tom Brady was sacked three times but faced only nominal pressure the rest of the game. He was very efficient (18 of 29 for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns); his only braincramp led to a Ty Law interception return for the Jets only score of the first three quarters.

The receiving corps was mostly unremarkable, which is expected with only 18 complete passes for the game. But two things stood out for me. First, Mike Vrabel will soon be drawing double-coverage. He’s got eight NFL receptions – all for touchdowns, and is now tied for second on the team with four touchdowns for the year. And second, Ben Watson may be learning how to get open. One of Monday night’s replays revealed that he let the defender hit him downfield and then Watson used his strength to push the DB away *just* before the ball arrived for a 23-yard reception. Plays like that can be penalties either way, but they are rarely called and are exactly the technique used by the best tight ends in the league.

As for the defense… well, I don’t want to praise them too much for stopping a very bad Jets offense – one of the worst I remember seeing in the last 10 years. A one-dimensional offense has no hope against the Patriots; but a no-dimensional offense is a chance for Patriot defenders to pad their stats. Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, and Hank Poteat added a sack each, Ellis Hobbs added 4 tackles and a couple of passes defensed, and Monty Beisel and Chad Brown even saw significant action (5 and 2 tackles, respectively). The only real defense concern is the health of Asante Samuel and Tedy Bruschi. Samuel took a knee to the head and Bruschi left with a leg injury. Neither player returned to the game. By all accounts, Bruschi is fine, but if Samuel is out for the playoffs, that might be the defensive injury that breaks the camel's back.

But mostly, it was a great team performance. In the first half, the Jets offense tallied four three-and-outs and threw an interception, had a QB rating of 10.71, got zero first downs, netted 18 yards, and held onto the ball for only 6:26 out of 30:00. It looked like they were playing seven-against-eleven, and the Jets got their first first-down with only 20 minutes left in regulation. For the game, the Pats held the Jets to 171 total yards, the fourth consecutive game of less than 200 yards allowed -- and the cumulative QB rating against them for the past four weeks is 51.51. The defense is razor sharp, stopping the run cold (an average of 31 yards against over the last four games), and creating heavy pressure with only limited blitzes. The Jets ran only 40 offensive plays, and if you take away the two garbage-time touchdown drives, the Jets had only 38 yards on 19 plays. All of that is a tribute to the Patriots rushing offense and smothering defense.

Special teams were okay but not great. When going with the wind, Adam V. put his kickoffs into the end zone, but the other direction was another matter. His first kickoff into the wind was returned past the Jets 40, and after that he kicked high and short to avoid long returns. The Patriots return game was very good (average starting position was their own 44), and Adam tried only one field goal (good from 26 yards, into the wind).

And I think the coaching staff deserves kudos. They recognized the Jets wouldn't be a threat as long as they protected the ball. So they ran and ran and ran, substituting in fresh running backs and sprinkling in enough passing to keep drives going. They rested some starters and protected their QB as they head into the playoffs, which is the right call at this time of year.

So where does that leave us. Well, the Pats can still get the third playoff seed with a win over Miami this Sunday (very likely) and a Cincinnati loss in Kansas City (also likely, given that the Chiefs have won 18 consecutive December home games). Should that happen, they'd draw either the Steelers (whom they beat this year) or Chiefs (to whom they lost this year) instead of the Jacksonville Jaguars (who are struggling with an unproven QB). Now, I'd rather face the Jags in the first round, but facing the Steelers or Chiefs means avoiding Indy the next week. However, avoiding Indy means playing the Denver Broncos (who beat the Patriots this year). No great options, but if forced to choose, I'd take the Jaguars and Indy over the Steelers/Chiefs and Broncos. I just think the Patriots stand a better chance of beating Indy in a dome than Denver at their place because since 2001 Tom Brady (9-0 record) and Adam Vinatieri (perfect in non-Houston domes) play other-worldly football inside.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Going for it on fourth down four times shows how much faith Belichick has in his defense. And if he believes in them, who would disagree?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-5!

Patriots 28, Buccaneers 0 (12/17/2005)

When the Patriots clinch an AFC East title at home, they play The Who’s famous line “Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss” over the PA. Seemed appropriate to hear it Saturday, when your hometown Patriots dismantled the Tampa Bay 28-0 and won their sixth division crown in Bob Kraft’s twelve years of ownership. The win gives them a home playoff game the weekend of January 7-8, and it looks like the Jacksonville Jaguars will be visiting that day. (BTW, didn’t the Patriots just win a Super Bowl in Jacksonville’s home stadium?)

On Saturday, the Tampa defense was loaded up to stop the run and get after the QB, but fortunately the Patriots drafted some guy named Tom Brady late in the 2000 draft and he just carved the Bucs to pieces. 20 for 31, 238 yards and 3 touchdowns reads like a line from last December’s stat-sheet, and performances like that coupled with the Colts loss yesterday might give him a leg up in the NFL MVP voting. David Givens was the Pats best receiver, accounting for 137 of those yards (and 19 yards on two end-around runs), and making two crucial catches -- one to keep their opening drive alive and the other a 31-yarder to change field position late in the first quarter. The tight ends are banged up, and so Christian Fauria had the only two catches from that position. The team will need more production from there if they expect to do anything in the playoffs.

The running backs contributed seven important catches, and 83 hard-nosed yards with zero fumbles (in fact, no turnovers on the day). The offensive line did give up a sack and Tampa got some hits on Brady, but overall their pass protection was good and the run blocking decent. Not stellar, but they are on their third left tackle, second center, second right tackle, and they've got a rookie at left guard. And of course, the shining star on the line was Tom Ashworth (no. 68 in your program), who snagged his first NFL touchdown – he lined up at fullback and caught a one-yard pass in the end zone.

But the Patriots defense was the unquestioned story of the day. All four starting linebackers had at least one sack (Bruschi and McGinest had two each and Colvin and Vrabel had one each), and two of them teamed up for a sack that forced a fumble (Vrabel) and recovery (McGinest) late in the first half. Bruschi looks like he’s all the way back, and Colvin and Vrabel continue to play out of their minds. Vrabel tackled everyone in his path and that freed Colvin to roam – and he seems to be everywhere all the time. Bruschi's stroke recovery aside, this has been the healthiest unit on the team all year, and they are rounding into playoff form nicely.

However, the linebacker play wouldn’t have meant much without stellar defensive line play. Richard Seymour is back to his All-Pro form, throwing aside linemen to make tackles in the running game and collapsing the pocket with brute force on passing plays. And Vince Wilfork (of all people) is finally holding his own in the middle. The team has been rotating Jarvis Green for Vince on obvious passing downs, and it has worked to perfection. Tampa couldn’t move Wilfork at all, and that meant no running room inside the tackles, which is where Tampa makes most of their yards. The Bucs gained only 30 yards on the ground, their lowest total of the season.

And finally, kudos to rookie cornerback Ellis Hobbs. The Buccaneers were running and passing away from his side of the field, which means they thought they had a better chance attacking veterans Asante Samuel and Eugene Wilson. That’s when you know you’ve arrived in the NFL, when the opposition designs their game plan to avoid you. And Hobbs backed it up, with three passes defensed in four attempts to his receiver.

The special teams numbers were a mixed bag. For the third week in a row, they gave up a big play (luckily, the 81-yard punt return was called back on a penalty); however, the kick-off coverage was very good (Tampa’s average starting position after kick-offs was their own 28). But some of the kicking game problems come with the territory when you play outdoors in cold, snowy, windy weather, and a lower punting average can sometimes be more circumstantial than you think. Adam Vinatieri hasn’t done anything but kick-off and "add the extra point" in two weeks; so I suppose he’ll be well rested for the playoffs.

As for the coaching, defensive coordinator Eric Mangini has pushed all the right buttons for three straight weeks. But the offensive play-calling gives me a bit of worry. The Pats had 11 possessions, and six of them were three- or four-plays and a punt. With drives like that, they can still prevail against lesser teams and against better teams in Gillette. But to get to the Super Bowl, they will have to win either one or (more likely) two games on the road against the best in the NFL. And I just think they need to be more productive than that against the iron of the league.

So where does that leave us. Well, the Patriots have a 5-1 record in their last 6 games, and seem destined for a date with the Jaguars in three weeks. They should have a decent chance to rest Brady (or anyone else who’s injured) because there are no realistic possibilities to move up in the playoff seedings. The Jets are next on the schedule (Monday at New York), and they have played better the past two weeks and could give the Pats a run for their money. Well… maybe not. So just enjoy the ride until the end of the year. Playoffs, here we come!

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “The Pats defense has dominated lately. They gave up 485 yards in the last three games combined. That’s less than their own offense had in the snow at Buffalo (494 yards).”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-5!

Patriots 35, Bills 7 (12/11/2005)

Yikes, did the Jets switch uniforms and play the Patriots again this week? The 35-7 final doesn’t even come close to describing how soundly your New England Patriots thrashed the Buffalo Bills yesterday. The win maintained the Pats two-game lead over Miami in the division, and set them up for a clash with the 9-4, division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Saturday in Foxboro. And any win by the Patriots or loss by Miami gives the Pats their third consecutive AFC East title (and fourth in the last five years).

As for yesterday's game, the offense was simply brilliant. The semi-patchwork O-line (Nick Kazcur was out) consistently won the battle at the line of scrimmage, kept Tom Brady upright, and pushed Bills all over the joint the entire game. 69% on third-down conversions, 75% pass completion rate, 80% red zone efficiency, 41:59 of possession time, 494 total yards (159 of them rushing), and only one sack (for one yard), and a franchise record 32 first downs -- all a credit to the run and pass blocking of the offensive line. Their dominance was so complete the game wasn’t in question the entire second half, and it speaks volumes that they scored 28 points against a Bills defense that stymied them for three-and-a-half quarters only six weeks ago.

Corey Dillon ran for 102 yards, only the second 100 yard rushing performance for this year's team (Dillon had 106 at Atlanta). He ran with more authority, as the line blew big holes and sealed the corner for several outside runs. Every week he looks more like the Dillon of last year. And Kevin Faulk did well as a change-of-pace back, the two of them combining for 10 catches for 100 yards. The running game was a vital component to the win because it was snowing and windy in Buffalo. And despite the bad conditions, Tom Brady killed the Bills with tough passes into tight spaces, and the receivers didn’t drop anything remotely close to catch-able… well, except for Michael Cloud’s tipped ball that was intercepted. Brady’s other interception was a miscommunication in the Buffalo end zone, but for the most part, he and his receivers were in perfect sync. David Givens looked like his old self, making the tough catches in traffic, and that opened up things for Deion Branch (5 catches for 83 yards) and Troy Brown (6 for 45 yards and a touchdown).

Add to all that a Patriots defense as ferocious as the weather, and the game wasn't even close. The defense mercilessly attacked the line of scrimmage, holding a decent Buffalo running game to only 14 yards on 12 carries and hitting QB J.P. Losman just about every time he dropped back to pass. All told, they forced seven drives of three or fewer plays, got three interceptions (including one returned for a touchdown), and held the Bills to 183 total yards (109 of them coming on two pass plays).

Richard Seymour has been on fire lately, disrupting plays before they even get started, and with Vince Wilfork now holding his own on the nose, the line stopped the run cold. And of course, that freed things up for the linebackers, which benefited Rosevelt Colvin tremendously. Colvin is finally playing up to his contract (after a season-ending hip injury in early 2003), pressuring the QB off the edge and sniffing out the run like a bloodhound. And when Willie McGinest comes from the other side, it just gives the other team's offense fits. With Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi prowling the middle, there isn't much the front seven can't handle.

However, the real improvement has been in the secondary. Rookie Ellis Hobbs is now the team's best cornerback (another INT yesterday), and with him and Asante Samuel outside, and Eugene Wilson and Michael Stone or Artrell Hawkins at safety, the Pats have some stability in the defensive backfield. With Hawkins out, Stone gave up his customary two big plays -- he missed the coverage on Lee Evans's long catch and missed the tackle on Josh Reed's short catch and long run. But the rest of the secondary obviously did a great job, because the Pats were running all kinds of blitzes and gave up only those two long passes. The blitz packages are starting to get to the opposing QB, and just in the nick of time. Without consistent pressure on the quarterback, the Patriots were going absolutely nowhere in the playoffs.

Not much to report on special teams. The Bills one great kickoff return was called back on a penalty, and there one great punt return put them in position to score. But alas, the Patriots' James Sanders returned an interception for a touchdown on the next play, so no harm, no foul.

The offensive and defensive coaches did a great job yesterday. The offense was imaginative, and the play-calling was dead on. Only a few plays looked doomed from the start, and any time you go 69% on third-down conversions, you are doing a lot of things right. And with the improvements on the defensive line and in the secondary, defensive coordinator Eric Mangini is starting to call some interesting blitzes. The healthier they get, the more interesting their post-season possibilities.

So where does that leave us. Eight wins in the AFC East just about seals the deal. With three games to go, the Dolphins are two games back, so any win by the Patriots or loss by Miami gives the Pats the division. And the Pats are too far behind the other division leaders to believe they'd end up with anything better than the fourth seed in the playoffs. The Patriots have now won four out of their last five games (including three division wins), but their four wins were over teams with a won-lost record of 16-35 (31.4%). This Saturday's contest with Tampa Bay (9-4) will be the kind of test they need before the post-season starts, and it will tell you a lot about how far they've come recently. I think they can win that one because the Buccaneers have been so awful in the cold, but even if they lose, they will finish with two wins and be 10-6.

Just as a side note, many people were rooting for a Miami loss yesterday, so the Patriots could clinch their division and rest their starters. But I'd rather see both San Diego (lost to Miami) and Kansas City (lost to Dallas) out of the playoffs. My dream scenario is where Pittsburgh and Jacksonville are the wild cards, with the Patriots hosting the Steelers in the first round and Jacksonville going to Indianapolis to play the Colts in the second round. That would give the Patriots their best chance to go far in the playoffs because Jacksonville plays the Indy tough, and the Patriots already beat Pittsburgh this year.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I'm rooting for Pittsburgh. The Pats lost to both San Diego and Kansas City, so I'd rather face the Steelers in the playoffs."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-5!

Patriots 16, Jets 3 (12/4/2005)

Not a whole lot to say about the game. When you play a terrible offensive team, you usually win if you avoid turnovers and big returns in the kicking game. The Patriots did give up a few big returns (one called back), but they coasted to an easy 16-3 win over the offensively challenged New York Jets. Their 7-5 record looks a lot better when you consider they've won three of their last four games, two within the division. They've got a chance to make it four out of five with a 4-0 division record when they travel to Buffalo next Sunday to battle the Bills.

Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk returned just in time to give Patrick Pass and Heath Evans a break (Pass and Evans were injured and inactive). They combined for 100 yards, and the running game provided 8 of the Patriots 24 first downs and helped the Pats control the clock for 38:10. They tried something new on offense, using a sixth lineman as a blocking halfback on certain plays (instead of a defensive lineman or tight end). Dillon ran well, hitting holes quickly and getting outside several times, and even though the line gave up two sacks, they kept Tom Brady clean for most of the game. A pretty good performance given that the Jets defensive front seven is considered their greatest strength.

Tom Brady fared better this week than last (he is now 4-0 the week after a four-interception game). he was sharp early, and would have had even better statistics without several dropped passes, and I'm still trying to figure out how he got one pass to Kevin Faulk through double-coverage for an important first down early on. The return of David Givens and the running backs were crucial to the team's improvement. No receiver had breakout numbers, but in an homage to their "everything is team" attitude, Givens, Deion Branch, and Troy Brown combined for 15 catches for 135 yards and the generic "running backs" contributed 8 catches for 65 yards. The passing game was smooth and efficient, and with the Jets obviously taking away the deep bomb, the Patriots still average twice as many yards per pass as the Jets did (6.4 vs. 3.2). And even though the Jets boast the sixth-best pass defense in the league, Tom Brady and company hit them for 100 yards more than they usually give up passing (271 total), and they never got a turnover even though they average 1.5 a game.

How thoroughly did the Patriots defense dominate? The Jets averaged only 18.2 yards per *drive*. Against many other teams, I would call the Patriots defensive performance dominant -- giving up three points in an entire game is nothing to scoff at. But the entire AFC East is quarterback-poor, and the Jets O-line is beat up and their receivers are sub-par; so I'd be worried if the Patriots gave up much more than they did. The middle of the D-line played better, with Vince Wilfork and Jarvis Green rotating at nose tackle. They really clogged things up and the linebackers stopped the running game cold (41 yards). Rosevelt Colvin and Tedy Bruschi continued their disruptive play, busting into the backfield to slow the run before it started or pressure the QB into a quick throw. Both Colvin and Mike Vrabel were unblocked on blitzes right up the middle, and they both blasted Brooks Bollinger. Add Jarvis Green's sack, and the Pats got Bollinger twice and knocked him to the turf at least a dozen other times.

And the secondary played much better. They are starting to gel a bit, with Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, and Eugene Wilson starting three straight games and James Sanders and Hank Poteat mercifully returned to their roles as fifth and sixth defensive backs. Hobbs, a rookie, is tied for the team lead with two interceptions, and even though he's still learning, he might be playing better than two-year starter Samuel, who appears to be nursing a leg injury. Eugene Wilson was back to his old self, prowling the deep middle and letting the D-line and linebackers handle the run. Even though the Jets offense is bad, I was watching the Patriots secondary and they weren't letting guys run free in this game -- pretty tight coverage overall. So I guess I'll take the improvement and see how it works going forward against the Bills.

The special teams were great on field goal attempts, but not so great in kick coverage. Adam V. nailed three-out-of-four field goals (and in the process, became the Patriots all-time scoring leader), and the kick off and punt averages were good. But they gave up a 49-yard punt return, another long return was called back, and one of Josh Miller's 45-yard punts was a 20-yard shank that bounced 25 more. It's always difficult to kick in the wind, but it won't get easier; so the special teams still need some work.

I thought the coaching staff did a good job of preparing some special defensive packages, at least three times they had blitzers unblocked (Colvin, Vrabel, and McGinest), and the mixed maximum pressure with maximum coverage nicely. And they also called a good offensive game, not trying to win with one play but staying with the short gains that made up long drives. I will say I prefer to judge them when preparing for a real NFL team, so maybe more next week...

So where does that leave us. The win, coupled with Buffalo's loss, just about locks up the AFC East and the fourth seed in the AFC (just too many teams in front of them to get the third seed). To lose the division, the Pats would have to go 1-3 while Miami went 4-0 (including a victory in Foxboro on 1/1/06). So with their playoff future set, the Pats should get as healthy as they can for the post-season and perhaps experiment with some new offensive looks and defensive blitz packages. I'm personally hoping the Steelers rebound so we can host them in the first round. But failing that, let's hope for Jacksonville -- because Kansas City, Denver, and San Diego already beat us this year, and Cincinnati would do the same.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "You gotta give the Jets credit; they gave the fans what they wanted. The fans blamed the kicker and the offensive coordinator for last year's playoff problems and so the team fired them both. Now they're playing for the first pick in next year's college draft. Hope the fans are happy."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 7-5!

Patriots 16, Chiefs 26 (11/27/2005)

For those of you with little time, let me summarize Sunday's 26-16 loss to the Chiefs. Re-read my Patriots/Broncos recap from earlier this year (10/16) and substitute the starters from both teams. In both games, the Patriots: (a) gave up tons of first-half points to fall into a huge hole; (b) turned the ball over early; (c) could stop neither the pass nor the run; (d) gave up a lot of QB pressure and created none of their own; and (e) lost by a score that was not indicative of how thoroughly they were dominated. Welcome to the land of 6-5... a mysterious place where the Patriots are a model of mediocrity and are almost certainly destined for an early playoff exit.

It was a team loss, and as such, here are suggestions for just about everyone on the team:

Tom Brady, too many high passes that landed in KC's hands (three on deflected balls); try stepping into the throw. O-Line, not enough pass protection or run blocking (three sacks and a lot more hits, and too many one- or two-yard gains); you should learn how to do at least one of them well. Ben Watson and Daniel Graham, learn how to get open in traffic -- otherwise the team will draft yet another tight end next year. Patrick Pass, after six years in this offense, you should know where to go on a screen pass. Heath Evans, blitz pick up is "Job #1" and don't ever forget it. Bethel Johnson, you're not at talented as Terry Glenn, so you can't get away with the same crap -- get off the bench and out of the dog house and contribute. And to David Givens, Kevin Faulk, Matt Light, and Corey Dillon, get well soon.

Michael Stone, if you are supposed to stay deep, then stay deep; the team is better off giving up a 10-yard run than a 52-yard touchdown. Same to you, Ellis Hobbs. Eugene Wilson, you were a cornerback in college, so covering a tight end should be right up your alley. Tedy Bruschi, a quarter-step slow is too slow against good teams; but keep trying, you're almost there. Rosevelt Colvin and Willie McGinest, no matter what you do, you guys aren't getting pressure on the QB, so stop blitzing yourself out of running plays. Vince Wilfork, work harder next off-season or you'll be on the street in two years. Ty Warren, Richard Seymour, and Mike Vrabel, nice game.

To the kickoff coverage team, you can't give up big returns in critical situations. After the team's last touchdown on Sunday, you promptly gave KC the ball near midfield, thus making any comeback next to impossible. Same thing happened against New Orleans last week, and it almost cost you the game. Wake up out there!

To the coaches, Bill Belichick is right, you have to coach better. This season, the Patriots have been out-scored 149 - 92 in the first half, but they've out-scored their opponents 151 - 130 in the second half. So clearly, the in-game adjustments are pretty good; it's the preparation during the week that's falling short. The game plan is something the coaches can impact every single week, and they have to do a better job if the Pats have any chance to make noise in the playoffs.

So where does that leave us? Well, the team is riding high in the QB-starved AFC East. 6-5 is two games better than the next best record in the division -- Miami and Buffalo are tied at 4-7, and the Patriots have already beaten each of them. They go for the trifecta this weekend with a winnable game against their other division foe, the New York Jets. The Jets have no offense at all, so the Patriots should be in good shape at home. Protect the ball and don't do anything stupid, and they should walk away with a win.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The AFC East had two playoff teams and one that just missed the post-season last year; this year three teams are just about guaranteed non-winning seasons. Miami and Buffalo won't run the table, so the Pats can win the division with only three more wins and a 9-7 record."

Keep whatever faith you can,

- Scott

PS. 6-5!

Patriots 24, Saints 27 (11/20/2005)

You may have heard the rumors, and of course, they turned out to be partially true. I was indeed a late addition to the Patriots injury list last Friday, having suffered a throat injury in the Colts game when I yelled myself silly for all 36:41 of Indianapolis possession time. I was hopeful that the doctors were wrong and I'd be in peak form by game time this past Sunday, but alas, I was in the same boat as Troy Brown -- made the trip to the stadium, suited up, but was never a factor in the game. Fortunately, I brought along a friend loud enough to bellow for two, and he did an admirable job making up for my absence. My medical staff has assured me that I'll be ready to go by the December 4 game against the Jets. Thank you to everyone who sent along their cards and well-wishes. With your support I'll be healthy in no time.

Now, on the the game. The only thing pretty about Sunday was the weather. But the Patriots thrashed the Saints early and held on for a nail-biting 24-17 victory. They are now in the midst of their first winning streak of the season, and coupled with losses by all other AFC East teams, the Pats are two games ahead of their nearest competitors for the division title. That home playoff game feels closer and closer every day (and so does the playoff ticket invoice -- yikes!).

The offense started well, with a 16-play, 98-yard drive for a touchdown and a drive about half the size (5 plays, 48 yards) for another touchdown -- the first time they've gone touchdown-touchdown to start the game since the last regular season game of 2003 (31-0 win over Buffalo). The running back tandem of Heath Evans and Patrick Pass went for 127 yards on 29 carries (a healthy 4.4 yards a rush), and the O-line provided some gaping holes, which were combined with timely play-calling that gave them 4 carries of over 10 yards. Ben Watson had one of his best games, leading the team with 66 receiving yards and making his second outstanding catch in two weeks (a back-twisting stab in the first quarter). No TDs for Ben, but he's taking up Daniel Graham's slack nicely.

Tom Brady was Mr. Mediocre, with okay stats and no interceptions. He had a fumble that was mostly not his fault, and his play-action fakes are improved. But he over- or under-threw about six long passes, and if he connected on just half of them the game would have been a laugher. It was windy out, but that doesn't explain the passes coming up short and long going in both directions. He was just off, and the fact that those long strikes were simple incompletions meant the Saints didn't have to adjust their defense. And while the long ball was obviously part of the Pats game plan, someone needs to tell them that a 50-yard bomb isn't called for on third-and-four. Get the first down and take your shot on the next play; but above all GET THE FIRST DOWN. In that situation, something short and certain beats a 50-yard incompletion, so some of those stalled drives were the coaches' fault.

The defense helped Aaron Brooks look better than he really is, just like they helped Gus Ferotte last week. But in both games, the Pats worked hard to stop the run and they let up more passing as a result. Sure, the secondary is injured and in disarray, but for two weeks they've bent but not broken -- which is how the Patriots won all those games the past four years. I'm starting to like the improvement I see from new safety Michael Stone (seven tackles) and cornerback Ellis Hobbs (not afraid to hit); and as they improve, it seems like Eugene Wilson is playing a little better. Not Harrison/Wilson/Poole/Law yet, but better than previous weeks (although I admit it's easier to do this against the Saints than the Colts). Hobbs and his partner in crime Asante Samuel played okay but not great games. No picks, and some missed coverage, but overall they made the Saints work the ball down the field slowly. And often enough the Saints self-destructed; just like the Dolphins did last week.

Willie McGinest had a nice game (a sack, five tackles and two passes defensed), and Mike Vrabel, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, and Tedy Bruschi clogged up the Saints favorite running lanes. The Saints had been averaging 122 yards rushing a game, and the Pats held them to only 87. The front three/four needs to get more pressure on the quarterback, but I don't think that was a big part of the plan for the Saints game. And if you'll indulge me for a moment, Tedy Bruschi is a football genius. I watched him on one play, and he faked the blitz and then dropped back two yards and cut off a slant route at the *exact spot* where Aaron Brooks almost tried to deliver the ball (Brooks pulled it back at the last second and then threw it away). Bruschi's instincts are outstanding, and he's getting to his spots quicker every week.

The special teams were quite something in that wind. Adam Vinatieri kicked well into and against the wind, they had *zero* penalties on special teams, Josh Miller continued his Pro Bowl-caliber season with five boots for 47.5 yards a kick (while New Orleans averaged only 32.2). Their only blemish was a 46-yard kickoff return in the fourth quarter; a play that helped the Saints get back into the game but did not prove fatal. But overall, with the wind swirling around, a very good day.

One coaching note: in case you hadn't heard, Steve Belichick (Bill's father) died of heart failure this past Saturday night. I hope you'll join me in sending my sincere condolences to Bill and his entire family.

So where does that leave us. Well, at 6-4, the Patriots are clearly the class of the AFC East. Leading the division by two games and having a 2-0 record within the division is about as much as you could hope for in a season like this. Next week's contest against the Chiefs in Kansas City is their toughest game left this year. KC has a balanced offense (which has given the Pats fits), so they can't load up to stop the run or the pass. Getting more pressure without committing more blitzers will be critical, so Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Rosevelt Colvin, and Willie McGinest will be on the hot seat. So enjoy the streak while it lasts; it could easily be over by next Sunday.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "In the first 8 games, the Patriots averaged 78 yards rushing a game. The last two? 112 yards. Thank you Miami Dolphins for Heath Evans. Now if they could just release a few defensive backs, we'd be in business."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-4!

Patriots 23, Dolphins 16 (11/13/2005)

What a difference an opponent makes. Last week, the Colts go pass happy, rack up 453 total yards and score on nearly every possession, and they smoke the Pats 40-21. This week, the Dolphins go pass happy, rack up 437 total yards, but score on hardly any of their possessions, and lose to the Pats 23-16. Not exactly a barn-burner for most of the game, but the Pats defense showed signs of life and their offense woke up just in time to claim the lead twice in the fourth quarter and hold on for the win. A win is a win, and 5-4 sounds a lot better than 4-5.

The offense was almost as beat up as the defense for this one. The following players were inactive: running backs Kevin Faulk and Patrick Pass, linemen Tom Ashworth and Matt Light, tight end Daniel Graham, and wide receiver David Givens. Recent addition Heath Evans (cut by Miami in October and signed by the Patriots two weeks ago) was the game's leading rusher, with 84 punishing yards. He also picked up the blitz well and had blocks on two screen passes. The Dolphins double-teamed Deion Branch the entire game, and Tim Dwight and Ben Watson helped pick up the slack. Dwight had his best game as a Patriots, out-muscling a defender for a 59-yard pass on the game-winning drive and making two other tough catches in traffic. Ben Watson had only three catches, but two were for touchdowns, and the second TD was one of the best catches you'll see a tight end make this year.

The O-line appeared to figure out how to run-block, but it was more likely that they had a healthy running back for a change. In fact, there were some gaping holes, with Evans running 10 to 15 yards untouched. And Russ Hochstein filled in well when center Dan Koppen went down with an injury in the third quarter. (Note: with both Koppen and Corey Dillon injured during the game, the Patriots ended the game with only four offensive players from their starting 11 in week one.) Pass blocking was more of an adventure, but considering that they had rookie Nick Kazcur alone against pass-rushing specialist Jason Taylor, I thought the line did a decent job in pass protection. Tom Brady waited until the end to pull his traditional heroics (that's 21 fourth-quarter comeback wins). But he did cut his interceptions in half from the last time they played (from 4 to 2), and he made the gutty throws when he had to. Not his best performance, but enough to win once the defense clamped down.

And speaking of that defense, they improved for sure. It helped to play the Dolphins, with Gus Ferotte and Chris "I can't believe I dropped another one" Chambers in the starting lineup, but you can't dismiss what they did against the run or the red zone. For the first time this year, the Pats stopped an opponent from scoring when they were inside the Patriots 20 yard line. I wish they'd started eight games ago, but with their divisional schedule coming up, I'm glad they started it now. Tedy Bruschi still looks a step slow to me, but he turned back one drive with a touchdown-saving tip near the endzone. And rookie Ellis Hobbs played well in the secondary, with an interception, a fumble recovery, 7 tackles, and some huge passes defensed late in the game. He also brought a lot of attitude and emotion to the game, and it was an even bigger lift because his counterpart, Asante Samuel, played the best game by any Patriots DB this season. Samuel had several nice plays in pass coverage, was important in containing the outside run, and just leveled Ricky Williams on one run. He has three of the best four hits by any Patriot this season.

Richard Seymour returned, and suddenly the Patriots stopped the run with ease. Miami averaged 116 yards rushing prior to yesterday; the Patriots held them to just 77. Vince Wilfork played better, and the linebackers (Rosevelt Colvin and Mike Vrabel especially) did a great job of taking away the cutback lanes. Colvin had a huge game, with an all-important forced fumble (with Miami driving toward a 14-0 halftime lead), some serious pressure on the QB, and some nice coverage and tackles in the passing game. The Patriots never sacked Ferotte, but they were in his face and got him on the run often enough. Willie McGinest knocked down a pass at the line and the Pats had several other tipped balls (one of which was intercepted by Hobbs). And even though it's scary to watch him flying through the air, Tedy Bruschi got Ferotte out of the pocket twice.

As for special teams, it was up and down. All-world punter Josh Miller killed another two kicks inside the 10 yard line, and all-time-great Adam Vinatieri nailed every field goal and consistently put his kickoffs deep. In fact, now that I think about it, special teams weren't up and down, they were an overall strength. I recall a couple of penalties, but on balance, they were a net positive.

My coaching gripes aren't specific to this game but more general. They are not adjusting in-game as well as they have in the past. Too many long spells without decent offensive production, and not enough defensive adjustments during the first half. They usually come out with better plans on both offense and defense after the half; but in the past they made those adjustments *during* the first half. Maybe it's the absence of Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, but somehow they aren't getting the job done until the half. Which doesn't make them bad, it just makes them like the rest of the league.

So where does this leave us? Well, for the fifth time in ten weeks, the Patriots are one game over .500. And for the tenth consecutive week, they are in first place in a very weak AFC East. I was frankly surprised that so many people picked Miami to win because their offense is so bad. I know the Dolphins have had success against us in Miami, but if Tom Brady didn't throw four INTs last year, this would be three straight wins down there. Next week, the Patriots will break their "W-L" pattern with a victory over the Saints at home, and that will give them six victories for the season. Four more and they'll most certainly be in the playoffs; so all is not lost yet.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Of the two new players in the Miami game, (defensive back) Ellis Hobbs is more important to the Pats playoff chances than (running back) Heath Evans. All three of the Patriots injured running backs could return this season. But none of the five DBs on injured reserve will be back this year, so they need help in the secondary more than they need running back help."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-4!

Patriots 21, Colts 40 (11/7/2005)

For those not keeping score at home, it is now WWWWWWWW vs. WLWLWLWL. Look up consistency in the dictionary and you're bound to find reference to the Colts (for consistently great play and eight straight Ws) or the Patriots (for consistently mediocre play and four straight WLs). Either way, the game came out as a 40-21 loss for the hometown team, and the Patriots slipped perilously close to the pack in the AFC East, with a big "showdown" next week against Miami (one game behind).

Over the years, I only remember one other game that was basically decided on single play. On 12/2/1990, the Patriots lined up against a Kanas City Chiefs team with a punishing running game. I thought the Pats only chance was to hold that running game in check, and make the Chiefs pass to win. So on the first play of the game, KC's Steve DeBerg hit Stephone Paige on an 86-yard touchdown bomb, and thus, after only 25 seconds, the game was essentially over (KC prevailed, 37-7). Well, after 15 years, it happened again yesterday. Trailing the Colts 14-7, the Patriots Mike Vrabel intercepted Peyton Manning, and the Pats had great field position. They drove the ball to the Indy 17, and then the Colts recovered a Corey Dillon fumble with 2 minutes to go. Predictably, the Colts drove for a touchdown, 21-7, pretty much the ball game.

Sure, the Patriots lost for a ton of other reasons, but a 14-14 game at the half, with the Patriots getting the ball to start the third quarter, and Peyton Manning perhaps questioning whether it was about to happen to him again -- all of that was the Patriots only realistic chance of winning. They had no pass rush, the secondary was alternately mediocre and terrible, and the linebackers couldn't stop anything for fewer than five yards. So the Patriots had to beat them in a shootout; stop the Colts for a field goal once or twice and make sure their own offense scored nothing but touchdowns. Their last possible plan to win fell from their grasp with that fumble.

On offense, the line pass protected okay but not great and run blocked poorly for the game. Dillon had some 10-yard gashes, but that would be followed by a 3-yard loss when four Colt defenders would come through unblocked. I don't think the Colts run defense is so much better than last year as much as I think the Pats O-line just blew a lot of assignments. Too many bad passes and dropped passes, too many tackes for a loss, just too many problems. I don't even know who to blame for the offensive woes; the whole offense was subpar. Guess I'll just move on.

Oh, that's right... the defense was worse than the offense, so I should probably skip them, too. But I won't. It was nice knowing you, Duane Starks, but it's time for Ellis Hobbs to show what he can do. Randall Gay, Asante Samuel, and Eugene Wilson were all huge contributers in their first years, so let's hope they got it right again with Hobbs. Time to see what he can do, 'cause Duane "The Pain" Starks isn't the answer, long- or short-term. With Randall Gay back, the Pats now have three secondary players who at least know their assignments (Gay, Samuel, and Wilson), so put them out there with Hobbs and see what happens. Can't be any worse than this, can it?

Tedy Bruschi looks a step slow (which is to be expected), and the D-line just can't get enough pressure on their own. The Pats best pass rusher last night was Rosevelt Colvin, but the more I watched him, the more I realized he was guessing run or pass and hoping he was right. He blitzed himself out of running plays as often as he pressured the QB; so even though he looked like the defender of the night, he was like the rest of the team, up-and-down. I give Asante Samuel a lot of credit; he at least kept close coverage -- sometimes the passes were just too good. But the entire secondary (Samuel included) gave way too much pre-snap ground. On third-and-three, you can't give a seven-yard cushion. You just can't.

The one nice part of the evening was watching the special teams in their limited-engagement revival of "The Keystone Cops." When your kickoff returner runs into his own teammate more often than the other team makes the tackle, you've got trouble. I wonder if Larry Izzo got credit for those two tackles on the Patriots kickoff return team. Could put him in line for some kind of bonus... from the Colts, that is.

As for the coaching... nevermind. No wait a minute. I said before the season that Belichick is the only head coach who would change things in mid-season if they weren't working out. Well, guess what, we are now exactly halfway through the Patriots season. Bill, here is your mission, should you choose to accept it: (a) elevate someone to offensive coordinator, (b) ask special teams coach Brad Seeley how he intends to fix things, and if the answer is "I don't know," fire him and take over the job yourself, (c) hire someone to coach Vince Wilfork one-on-one, (d) start scouring the league for a new defensive backs coach, because Eric Mangini's replacement is no Eric Mangini.

I know I usually have more stats, so just to keep you happy, here are a few: first downs 28 to 17 Indy, third-down conversions 71% to 36% Indy, time of possession 36:41 to 23:19 Indy, turnovers 2 to 1 Indy, total yards 453 to 288 Indy, rushing yards 132 to 34 Indy, passing yards 321 to 254 Indy, yards per pass 8.7 to 6.0 Indy, sacks 2 to 0 Indy... hold on, I'm out of breath. Want to know the only significant category where the Patriots outplayed the Colts? Penalties, 4 to 7 Patriots.

So where does that leave the team? Aside from being in first place at 4-4, the Patriots are basically biding their time. They will win the division but it's highly doubtful they'll get a first-round playoff bye, so they'll have to go on the road if they want to repeat as champions. But the question of how they'll do in the playoffs is basically one of health. If January brings back Richard Seymour, Matt Light, Kevin Faulk, Patrick Pass, and the 2004 versions of Corey Dillon and Tedy Bruschi, then they have a chance to make some noise in the playoffs. Otherwise, expect Tom Brady to suffer his first playoff defeat in 2006.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Pats are still going to win the division, bank on it. But if they don't get healthy by the playoffs, it could be one and done."

(Try to) Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-4!