Thursday, December 12, 2019

Brady Now More Likely To Leave Than Retire

For a while it has appeared that 2019 will be Tom Brady's last season in New England. Mostly I thought retirement was the most likely outcome. But now I'm thinking the odds have shifted on his future.

I have come to believe that the most likely scenario is Brady leaving to play somewhere else in 2020. There is a lot of evidence already in place, which I'll list here but not rehash. (A) His contract was re-done so it expires after this year. (B) He and his trainer (Alex Guerrero) put their houses up for sale. (C) He resigned from the local chapter of Best Buddies charity.

In the past few weeks, two new things popped up that helped sway me to believe that TB12 might leave for another team.

The first is that he started making noise about playing until he was 47. My thinking had been that if he was only going to play until 45 (as he asserted previously), it didn't make sense to leave the Pats for a rebuild project somewhere else. If he did that, it would take a year or two to rebuild the new team. And that would give him just one or two shots at another Super Bowl win.

However, if he is planning to play until 47, a one/two-year rebuild gives him three or four shots at another Super Bowl in the new location. IMO, that is a much more attractive option for Brady.

The second thing is that Tom Brady, Sr. said publicly that his son wants to continue playing after this year. He could be wrong, but something tells me he has more information than most when it comes to Tom Jr.'s decision.

Putting these two new facts into the mix changes the picture significantly. I previously thought there was a 50% chance he'd retire, a 40% chance he come back to New England, and a 10% chance he'd play somewhere else.

Now I think it's more like a 60% chance he'll play somewhere else, a 30% chance he'll be back with the Pats, and a 10% chance he'll retire. IMO he is now twice as likely to leave than to stay.

(Note: I have no inside information about this. Zero, zilch, nada, bagel! This is just me putting together information that is known to the public.)

If Brady leaves, the question then becomes which team he would play for in 2020. Here are the three strongest contenders, in my opinion:

1. Miami Dolphins. He knows a lot of the coaching staff there, the weather is much nicer, and they have plenty of salary cap space to pay him absolute top dollar. This would also give him two games a year against the Jets and Bills, teams he has absolutely owned over the years.

A bonus for him might be the chance to stick it to the Patriots twice a year. But that is a double-edged sword -- as he'd have to face Belichick, the greatest coach of all time. No easy task.

2. Tennessee Titans. They have a defense that's ready for prime time, and are a QB away from being a legitimate contender. And as well as Ryan Tannehill has played for them, the organization should be honest with itself about his ceiling. This year is more likely fool's gold than actual treasure.

A huge bonus would be that this division is always (and I mean *always*) mediocre. Since 2013, no team has won 12 games in a season. And multiple division champs were 9-7 during that time. In other words, Brady would *own* this division for the foreseeable future.

3. Los Angeles Chargers. The team moves into a new stadium next year, but they are an afterthought to the LA Rams. Signing Brady would get fans into the stands. And he'd be able to expand his TB12 health centers to the west coast.

The downside is that he'd always be on the "afterthought" team in LA -- because the owner of the stadium owns the Rams. And he'd have to face stronger competition in the AFC West than the AFC South.

Lastly, don't think I'm bummed about this. The media plays it up like it would be a disaster to lose Brady. But that attitude does two things that I don't like.

First, it takes away from watching him and the team now. If fans started worrying about the future when Brady first started to decline, they wouldn't have enjoyed the last three Super Bowls as much as they could.

Second, it assumes that the Patriots will be lost without Brady. I don't think that will ever be true as long as Belichick is in New England.

I've said for years that Belichick gets you to the playoffs almost every year. But it's Belichick/Brady that got the team to nine Super Bowls and won six Championships.

Without Brady, Belichick probably would have won one or two Super Bowls. So without Brady going forward, don't expect the Pats to fall off a cliff.

I still hope Brady doesn't leave. But if it does, get ready for: "We're on to Stidham."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-3!

Sunday, December 8, 2019

Patriots Lose Yet Another Big Game, 23-16 to Chiefs

The Patriots went down big and then clawed back, only to lose to the Chiefs on Sunday, 23-16. The loss keeps them a game up in the AFC East; however, it all but concedes the #1 AFC seed to the Baltimore Ravens (essentially two-games up with three games to play). The Pats retain the #2 seed position for now. Next up it's "On To Cincinnati" -- the perfect cure for what ails the Patriots.

The Pats had no business making this game close. KC dominated the first 37 minutes and was leading 23-7 at the time. But the New England defense tightened up, the offense figured out a few things, and they got another big special teams play to make it a game. But it was too little too late, as their 21-game home winning streak came to an end.

There were several blown calls that cost the Patriots points. And either of them could have swung the game in New England's favor. But let's be realistic; going down 23-7 to Kansas City is almost never a formula success. And they exhausted their timeouts and challenges hanging onto hope for dear life. They needed a bit more luck to win, and it never came through.

The defense was okay but not great. They held the Chiefs to 23 points (a touchdown less than their average). But they gave up too many big plays in the passing game, which let KC score easy points. And three of the four longest plays for the Chiefs came on third-downs, each helping keep drives alive when the Pats needed to get off the field.

Particularly galling were the 23-yard pass to Sammy Watkins on a third-and-10, and an outrageous 21-yarder to Tyreek Hill on third-and-19. Third-and-19 and they converted... really?! Doh! On balance the secondary played well, but situationally they need improvement.

The defensive star of the game was probably safety Devin McCourty. Not only did he lead the team with 9 tackles, but he forced a huge fumble on a second-effort play that gave the Pats a chance at the end. Linebacker Jamie Collins (7 tackles, 1 QB hit, 1 pass defended), and interior lineman Adam Butler (4 tackles and good inside run support) also played very well.

On offense it's tough to find many bright spots. That unit was pathetic in the first half, and looked a lot like they did in recent games against the Ravens and Texans. In fact, the game went almost exactly like the Texans tilt -- the Patriots got dominated for three quarters and then came to life at the end of both games, only to fall short each time.

It was good to see the tight end Matt LaCosse get more involved. But the rookies had mixed results: N'Keal Harry's only catch should have been a touchdown but the officials blew the call. And Jacobi Meyers dropped an easy first down toss on third-down -- on a drive where the Pats went for it on fourth-down and missed.

Maybe the only positive offensively was how they put together drives late. But even that comes with a caveat: they should have made their adjustment earlier in the game. Any score earlier would have made it a much closer contest later.

Special teams were very trick-or-treat. They had a field goal blocked when a guy busted right through the middle almost untouched. But then they had the block on a KC punt that got them back in the game. However, on one Chiefs punt they left no returner back, and the ball bounced KC's way for an additional 20 yards of field position.

There were a lot of problems with the coaching in this one. First was the inability to adjust the offense until far too late in the game. Then the first challenge by Bill Belichick was on a pass-interference non-call/first-down mark. He was unlikely to win the first, and upon seeing the replays, had no chance to win the second.

Later on, when N'Keal Harry was called out-of-bounds at the three yard-line, they needed that challenge to get those points. Also, the curious decision not to use a punt returner backfired.

And after the Harry non-TD, the team sorta fell apart. They ran a James White sweep to avoid a five-yard penalty, but instead lost two yards and a down. Then they had an incompletion to Meyers that was signaled TD by one ref -- so the offense started leaving the field. But when it was reversed by another official, the team burned a timeout that they could have used later in the half. A curiously non-Patriots-like sequence of plays.

Where does this leave us? 10-3 still isn't bad, but the team is now in a dogfight for the division title and the #2 seed. Their offense should have been better against KC. So that tells me their offense is what it is: 14-21 points a game and hope the defense can hold the opponent down.

Non-Brady MVP: Probably Julian Edelman again. 8 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown, 1 rush for 8 yards, and drew double-teams all night so other receivers could get open.

Biggest on-going concern: Offensive futility. Although they appeared to have figured out something, that by putting Edelman outside the numbers, they could move one of the safeties out of the middle of the field.

The problems started up front this time, with sometimes porous protection and sometimes the inability to run the ball. But wherever they started, they will likely be the downfall of the team come playoff time.

Statistical oddity: With James White's touchdown pass, the Patriots now have two people on the team with higher QB ratings that Tom Brady. White (118.8) and Edelman (158.3) have higher ratings than Brady (86.5).

(Trivia Question: can you name the last year two Patriots players had higher season-long QB ratings than Brady? Bonus question: can you name either of the two players? Answers below.)

Water-cooler wisdom: "It ain't over 'til it's over, but it sure feels over."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-3!

PPS. Trivia answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
In 2001, Brady's first year as a starter, both receiver David Patten (95.8) and running back Kevin Faulk (118.8) had higher QB ratings than Brady (86.5).

Double-bonus trivia question: In the 2000 season, three players had better QB ratings than Brady... how many of the three can you name? Answer below.
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Double-bonus trivia answer: QB Drew Bledsoe (77.3), QB Michael Bishop (64.4), and punter Lee Johnson (118.8) had better QB ratings than Brady (42.4).

Monday, December 2, 2019

Patriots Drop Big Game to Texans, 28-22

The Patriots lost a big one last night, with the Texans handing them their only important loss to the franchise in its history -- 28-22. The loss drops the Patriots into the #2 playoff seed, and leaving them with a razor-thin one-game lead in the AFC East (over Buffalo). Next week doesn't get any easier, with the Kansas City Chiefs coming to town.

If you watched the game, you probably saw as much as I did. The Pats offense couldn't get out of its own way for most of the game. They scored touchdowns on their last three drives, but it was too little too late. And their defense played mediocre most of the game, giving up four TDs, one after an interception and two after loooong drives.

They can blame the flu (which took out half the team). They can blame Romeo Crennel's great defensive plan. They can blame the play-calling. But the fact is that teams have a simple formula to stop the Patriots passing game. Double Julian Edelman, cover James White with a defensive back, and dare anyone else to beat man-coverage.

I won't really know how the offense is going until the next two games. The Dallas tilt was a quagmire, not much to learn there. And the other two bad offensive performances were all on the road, where crowd noise causes problems. If they hold onto the #2 seed, that means at least one home playoff game. So that means how they perform the next two weeks will tell us a lot about how things will go in the playoffs. Assuming they make it :(

And for crying out loud, can they play with a little better plan to start the games? And a little more urgency on offense? The last four games combined, they have 10 total points in the first quarter. And seven of those came after a blocked punt against Dallas.

Time for Josh McDaniels to earn his keep and come up with a better plan entering the game. Falling behind KC or the Bills (in three weeks) won't do. If you could score three straight TDs late, then figure out how to do it early.

As for this game, the only real stand out was James White. The Pats finally figured out that when he's in the game teams expect passing plays. So they ran him instead -- to the tune of 79 yards on 14 carries (a 5.6ypc average).

The Pats will need to play White more, even if it means risking injury or wearing him out. They just don't have lots of other good options at this point. Sony Michel is useless in the passing game. And Rex Burkhead isn't consistent enough.

Among the receivers, Mohamed Sanu has Brady's trust but he dropped a fourth-down throw that hit him in the hands (and he also fielded a punt inside the 10 yard-line, a no-no on special teams). However, Jacobi Meyers got more targets this week, with some positive results. But then on the downside again, Phillip Dorsett seems to have lost the ability to beat any defenders one-on-one.

The defense is still playing at a historically excellent pace. But it's apparent that if the team doesn't get ahead, they aren't exactly the reincarnation of the 2000 Ravens. They can be had if the other team doesn't have to throw all the time to get back into the game. Balanced offenses give them real trouble, specifically the linebackers, who have trouble covering receivers.

Special teams actually played pretty well. The punting and kickoffs were solid and they got the one field goal they attempted. They even had a real shot at an onside kick that could have given them a chance to pull out the victory. But alas, it bounced off Brandon Bolden's hand and out-of-bounds :(

(Note: I put the missed extra point on the coaching staff. They decided to get cute and look at a two-point conversion. And when they didn't get the defensive look they wanted, they took a five-yard delay of game penalty. Then the kick went slightly wide left. Not on the kicker, IMO, on the coaches.)

Where does that leave us? Not quite the #1 seed anymore, but still in line for a playoff Bye if they hold serve. Recovering from the flu will help. And maybe that KC defense will cure what ails the offense... but I won't hold my breath on that one.

Biggest ongoing concern: It's the offense, specifically the receivers not getting separation. The running game isn't a concern, because they won't be lining up to run on anyone anytime soon. They have to get the receiver thing figured out, or they are going no where in the post-season.

Non Brady MVP: James White, who had the aforementioned running stats and also 8 catches for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns. I sort of think the team rediscovered White this week, and I hope they continue to use him.

Statistical oddity: So far this year, the AFC East is 11-4 against the NFC East (a winning percentage of .733). And the bottom of the AFC East stinks -- which shows you how bad the NFC East is. Washington and the Giants should be relegated.

Water-cooler wisdom: "Four games to figure out the offense, or they are toast in the playoffs."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 10-2!

Monday, November 18, 2019

Patriots Outlast Eagles 17-10

New England gave up two first-quarter scores, then scored 17 unanswered points to take a road win in Philly, 17-10. The win put them at 9-1, still a game up on Baltimore and two games up on the Bills for the division lead. Next week the Cowboys ride into town for a tussle at Gillette Stadium.

For the second straight game, the opponent came out of their Bye week with a good initial plan. The Ravens started out 17-0 and won by 17 points. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they started out 10-0 but couldn't sustain it. The Pats made adjustments and shut down Philly the rest of the game.

It seems that good teams can attack the Patriots defense early, especially if they have two weeks to prepare. That might not seem like much of a problem. But remember; the Patriots are in position to have a playoff Bye, which is a two-week break. And the Super Bowl (if they get that far) is played after two weeks off.

IMO, the team has to do a better job of defensive preparation to begin games. In the games against Baltimore and Philadelphia, they allowed 27 points in the first quarters and 20 total points in the other quarters combined. That might not cost them in the regular season, but it will against good teams in the playoffs.

As for this game, the defense adjusted and played very well after the first quarter. The offense did decent in the mid-game, scoring on four straight drives. But even though they made that stand up, they were much too inconsistent on offense.

The offensive line played poorly most of the game. And the pressure caused missed throws by QB Tom Brady and first-half running problems. There were also wrong routes by several receivers (Jacobi Meyers and Sony Michel specifically), and blown up screen passes, any of which could have led to interceptions.

The good news on offense is that both Rex Burkhead and Ben Watson get more involved with each passing week. Also, rookies Meyers and N'Keal Harry are at least trusted enough to contribute occasional receptions for first downs. And the protection and run-blocking should look better when tackle Isaiah Wynn returns from injured reserve next week. Should; but no guarantees.

A sign that the team is spreading the ball around is that only Julian Edelman had double-digit targets (10 exactly). That also bodes well heading into the stretch run. Oh, and Edelman also had the only touchdown pass of the game, to Phillip Dorsett on a double-pass.

The defensive adjustments were excellent. After the first three drives, the team double-teamed on tight end Zach Ertz and that at least limited the damage he did. And the tight man-coverage forced quarterback Carson Wentz to hold the ball an extra second and read deep into his progressions.

The result was five sacks for 40 yards and just 50% completions. After their initial scoring surge, the Eagles punted seven times, lost a fumble, turned it over on downs, and the game ended.

Secondary play was very good against everyone except Ertz. New(ish)comer Terrence Brooks tied for the team lead with seven tackles and he knocked down two passes and had two QB pressures to boot. The team benefited from some missed throws by Wentz and dropped passes. But overall they did a great job adjusting in-game.

Along the line, defensive tackle Danny Shelton merits special mention. He also had seven tackles, a rarity for a Patriots interior lineman. He also had a sack, a QB pressure, and forced the game's only fumble -- which the Pats recovered and turned into a field goal.

Special teams played a big role in the win. New kicker Nick Folk hit three of three field goals. And punter Jake Bailey had six kicks downed inside the 20. That field position forced the Eagles to go a long field too many times -- and they could only convert one of those long-fields into points.

As for the coaching, the defensive adjustments were excellent, and the offensive play-calling was very good. The offensive execution wasn't great, but some of that was probably rust from the week off, and some of it was also working in new players. Josh McDaniels has some work left to do with this group.

Where does this leave us? 9-1 and atop the AFC isn't half-bad for a team with so much local media gnashing of teeth. The kicking game and defense are in fine shape. It remains to be seen if the offense can score enough once the January games begin. Next up are the Cowboys. And I still think their QB, Dak Prescott, is about to learn how tough it is to play a Belichick defense for the first time.

Biggest on-going concern: It has to be the offensive line. The team is involving more and more receivers every week. But they can't run and the backside pressure is getting to Brady far too often.

Non-Brady MVP: A three-way tie between Bailey, Brooks, and Edelman. One from each phase of the game... wouldn't BB be proud :D

Statistical oddity: For all the consternation about the Miami Dolphins "tanking" this season, head coach Brian Flores has the same record in his first 10 games as Bill Belichick did in his first 10 games with the Patriots: 2-8.

Bonus oddity: Julian Edelman has a career QB rating of 158.3 -- which is the highest you can record, a "perfect" QB rating.

Water-cooler wisdom: "The Pats have to lose two more games to get knocked out of a playoff Bye. And I don't see two more losses on the schedule."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-1!

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Patriots 2019 Mid-Season Review

So we are just a little over halfway through the season, and the Patriots have a well-earned week off. They are 8-1 so far, a game better than I thought they'd be at this point (7-2). And they and the Ravens have separated themselves from the AFC pack. The Pats are two-games clear of every non-Baltimore team in the AFC, and the Ravens are at least one-game clear of everyone else.

Also, somehow the Patriots gained ground in the playoffs last week, despite not playing. KC lost, Buffalo lost, and the Colts lost. So just by not playing, the Patriots improved their potential playoff lot. Thank you to the terrible AFC.


It's been a weird ride so far. The defense looked historically good through eight games, but it appears the schedule was about to get harder. And sure enough, those same Ravens put up 37 on the Patriots (30 on the defense), bringing those expectations down a notch.

But the reality is they could still be historically good. The team that holds the current record for fewest points given up in 16-game season gave up 36 points in a single game once. So if that was an aberration for the Patriots, then they could still stack up favorably.

Where do they stand at this point? Read on to find out:

Offense

1. No Running Game Bailout In 2019

Last year the running game came to the fore as the team moved toward the playoffs. The passing attack was middle-of-the-road most of that year, so they needed to run to stay in games. And they rode that and an attacking, confusing defense to a Super Bowl victory.

But they've suffered too many losses on offense to duplicate that formula this year. Here are the key players who are not available anymore:
  • Tight end Rob Gronkowski (retirement)
  • Tight end Dwayne Allen (cut)
  • Center David Andrews (blood clots)
  • Left tackle Trent Brown (free agent, signed with Oakland)
  • Fullback James Develin (neck injury)
Given how key those players were to the ground game, this season's inconsistency isn't surprising. And it is unlikely the Patriots will be able to duplicate their run-and-defend playoff metamorphosis from last year. They are averaging a full yard less per carry this year than they did last year (3.3ypc vs. 4.3ypc in 2018). So don't bank on the run game for a post-season bailout.

2. Diversifying The Passing Attack

Given the lack of a dominant running game, the Patriots will likely rise or fall based on their air attack. And as is usually the case, it will depend less on who is catching the passes and more on how many different targets are actual threats in the passing game.

When the Pats have a diversified passing attack, it usually bodes well for post-season success. Teams just have trouble when they have to cover 4+ legitimate receivers. It's especially true when New England can keep the same personnel on the field, go no-huddle to limit substitutions, and find the weak spots in the defense.

The past few weeks have shown that that is exactly what they are trying to do. In recent games, nine different receivers have caught at least 2 passes in at least one game. And spreading the ball around is the best way to attack defenses that don't need to worry about the run.

If Ben Watson and Mohamed Sanu continue to work their way into the offense, then the Patriots could make some playoff noise. If not, then it'll be Edelman, White, and patching it together after that -- not a great formula to beat good teams.

3. QB Questions

Tom Brady is on pace for his worst QB Rating since 2013, the year before Jimmy Garoppolo arrived in New England. The more worrying thing is that his 93.7 rating this year has been compiled against some of the worst teams in the NFL: Dolphins, Jets (twice), Giants, Browns, and Washington. Those performances don't predict that he'll light it up against better teams the second half of the year.

He didn't exactly set the league on fire last year. But he had a very good defense and an efficient running game to lean on. This year, the running game is pedestrian. And while the defense has looked very good, it's still tough to win without excellent QB play.

Brady has always shined most brightly when the games get more important down the stretch. However, this year I would not predict any great increase in his stats starting now. The teams they face coming up are better, and he does happen to be 42 years old. The decline might have begun at this point.

Defense

1. Talent All Over The Field

The defense is loaded this year. They started the season on an historic pace, giving up just 6.8 points per game. (And that included several scores given up on special teams or on offensive turnovers.)

The last game always looms large in the NFL. But don't be fooled by the 37 dropped on the Patriots by Baltimore. The defense has very talented players at all three levels, some playing the best of their careers at the same time. That is always a lethal combination.

There is little chance the Patriots D will set any NFL records. But they'll probably be good enough for a 14-2 or 13-3 record.

2. Size Matters

The only concern on defense is how they hold up against good running teams. The Pats like to play with two or three down-linemen and four or five linebackers. That's because they are loaded with LB talent.

The problems come when teams commit to the run. It can be harder for smaller linebackers to hold up against large offensive lines with good blocking tight ends. We saw that on display against Baltimore. Here's hoping we don't see it again this year.

3. Who's The Boss

For those who wondered who would call the defensive plays this year, the answer is in. It's Belichick. Not Bill -- his son Steve is calling the defensive signals. He's done a great job so far; but needed to adjust quicker in the Ravens game. Baltimore had a better plan that day, and they jetted to a 17-0 lead -- and the won by exactly those 17 points (37-20).

The Pats need a better plan coming in and also need to adjust better than they against the Ravens.

Special Teams

1. Added Talent

New punter Jake Bailey has been great kicking, tied for second in the league with 21 punts downed inside the 20 yardline. He also has been kicking off since Stephen Gostkowski got injured (out for the year), and Bailey had only one misstep in that area -- a boot out of bounds.

The Patriots also brought back Brandon Bolden to help on Special Teams. Unfortunately ST stalwart Brandon King went down, but the team brought in Justin Bethel -- one of the best special teamers in the entire league.

Special teams has more big plays this year, and with Bailey punting, they are always a threat to pin teams deep.

2. Kicking Game Ups-And-Downs

One other addition was Mike Nugent, who lasted just four games in relief of Gostkowski before being cut. Nick Folk did fine in relief of Nugent in his first game with the Pats. But that situation bears watching, as he was out of the league since missing three kicks for the Buccaneers against the Patriots.

Also of note: Bailey hasn't been clean on his field goal holds. At least twice he put the laces toward the kicker -- a big no-no. To quote Pete Carroll: "Gotta clean it up."

Quick Hits

1. For all the bluster about the much tougher the up-coming schedule, here are the aggregate records of the Patriots opponents:

First 9 games: 30-52 (36.6%)
Last 7 games: 30-34 (46.9%)

Better for sure, but not exactly a barn-burning sked.

2. The 2019 record of the four QBs drafted by Bill Belichick is 25-6 (Brady, Jacoby Brissett, Brian Hoyer, and Jimmy Garoppolo). I heard somewhere that BB stinks at the draft; guess not :)

3. I don't pay much attention to Fantasy Football, preferring the real thing. But I was made aware that the Patriots defense has outscored all but a few of the top-scoring players in the league. In fact, before the Baltimore game, they had outscored all but two players! (Trivia Question: can you name those two players? Answer below.)

And yes, this is unprecedented. Currently, the Pats D ranks 16th in Fantasy points. Annually, the best defenses usually rank about 50th!

Summary and a Look Ahead

The Patriots are in position for a playoff bye, as usual. The second half schedule is more difficult, but it doesn't look too daunting. I'd predict a 14-2 or 13-3 record to finish the year.

They'll have to keep the passing attack diversified. And everyone in New England will be keeping their fingers and toes crossed that no games come down to Nick Folk's right foot. He looked good in his first week, but better not to tempt fate on that one :D

Next week at Philly, the Eagles are missing two key ingredients of their Super Bowl win over the Pats: QB Nick Foles and offensive coordinator Frank Reich. That makes it a much tougher game, and also Carson Wentz' first action against a BB defense. Could be entertaining to watch!

I hope you enjoyed the first half of the year as much as I did. I like blowout wins over the Dolphins and Jets, and even the Baltimore loss was entertaining.

Enjoy the rest of the year!

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-1!

PPS. Trivia answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The Patriots D trailed only Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson in Fantasy point production prior to the week 9 loss to the Ravens.

Monday, November 4, 2019

Patriots Undressed By Ravens, 37-20

The 2019 Patriots lost for the first time last night, 37-20, to the Baltimore Ravens. The win leaves them 1.5 games up on Buffalo for the division lead, and also 1.5 games up on those same Ravens in the race for AFC playoff seeding. Next week is a Bye, so no game but keep an eye out for a mid-season update/review.

The Ravens won this game because they were better prepared. They jetted out to a 17-0 lead in the first 16 minutes of the game. And after that, the Patriots got two turnovers and scored 20 points, and the Ravens got two turnovers and 20 scored 20 points. So if the Pats were better prepared at the start, they would have been right there.

Baltimore confused the Pats defense with their diverse running attack, using their confusion for the first three scores. But after that the game settled down and the New England offense and defense played markedly better.

It was a great adjustment to go no-huddle to wear down the Ravens D and then run it down their throats later in the game. And it helped that Baltimore fumbled twice (a punt and the running back). But after the blistering Ravens start, it was too-little too-late.

As with all close games, there were maddening moments that could have turned the tide.

The first Ravens TD came after the Patriots were offside on a field goal attempt. The Ravens got unneeded help from the officials on a few other plays (two examples: Hightower's offside should have been a false start on the long-snapper, and a killer non-call on an obvious pick play -- both of which gave the Ravens easy first downs). And James White was inches away from a TD at the end of the first half. 

But most frustrating of all was watching the Pats offense. Multiple times they had easy plays for short gains but went for long passes. With the almost the entire fourth quarter to play, the Pats were down 10 and had a first-down in Baltimore territory. Here is what happened next:

Play #1. Brady did not audible when there was an unusual 10-yard cushion on an outside receiver (I think it was Phillip Dorsett). A change of play, or just a knowing nod to the receiver, and a quick-throw outside picks up at least 5-7 yards easily. But instead, it was a throw to a covered Mohamed Sanu.

Play #2. Instead of taking a short gain over the middle, Brady forced the ball deep to tight end Ben Watson down the seam. It's the kind of pass Rob Gronkowski sometimes made; a low pass where he had to dive, catch, and roll to get it. But Ben Watson isn't Rob Gronkowski, so it fell incomplete.

Play #3. Knowing they were in a four-down situation, the Patriots should have tried to gain some yardage to give themselves a chance on fourth-down. Instead, Brady dropped way back and under pressure threw one up for grabs at the 5 yard line. Interception! It was so badly underthrown that the "intended receiver," (Sanu) couldn't even get to the intercepting player to touch him down at the 5, so he returned it to the 33 yard line.

In summary, the Patriots were unprepared, the defense was confused and overmatched, the offense was inconsistent and turned the ball over, and the referees helped the Ravens. Hence a 17-point loss.

Positives from the game:

1. Sanu had 10 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. With the Pats in desperate need of diversifying their offensive attack, adding Sanu to Edelman, James White, and Ben Watson is what the doctor ordered.

2. The overall plan of going up-tempo to wear the opponent down worked pretty well. Given that they started slow running but ended up averaging 4.4 ypc, it was impressive. And being able to run or throw to White against a tired defense actually helped.

3. The defensive adjustments were good, if not geat. Even though they came too late, the Patriots D settled down and slowed down the Ravens O. In the mid-game the Patriots outscored the Ravens 20-7. Unfortunately it wasn't enough to overcome the two turnovers.

4. Nick Folk > Mike Nugent. Not that he was great, but you have less fear with Folk coming out to kick than you had with Nugent. Most of the kicks were right down the middle; only one real exception moved to the left, but it was still good.

5. A big-picture positive: the Ravens beat both the Chargers and Browns the first time they saw QB Lamar Jackson -- and both trounced the Ravens the second time they played him. It might take that one game to see what you are up against. And the Patriots just got that out of the way.

Where does that leave us? 8-1 still isn't bad, but it does make things tighter in the AFC. I predicted they'd lose this game when I made my Preseason Picks in September, because it was a big spot and the Ravens had a Bye week to work on it. So take it as a given they would lose and move on. The Patriots Bye will give them a chance to regroup and better integrate Sanu.

Biggest on-going issue: If the kicking game holds up, then it's a tie between the O-line and wild INTs from Tom Brady. They need to give help to Marshall Newhouse at left tackle. And even more, they need Isiah Wynn to return to take his place.

As for Brady, I agree with Al the Weather God, who wrote that he'd like TB12 to look less like Brett Favre. Take what the defense gives you and live to play another down. It worked for your first three Super Bowls, it can work again!

Non-Brady MVP: Punter Jake Bailey, who had three of his five punts downed inside the 20, and who gave up an average return of 1.4 yards. He also kicked off and held on all those perfect kicks.

Statistical Oddity: The Patriots defense had given up just 40 points in the first 8 games. And they gave up 30 last night.

Water-cooler wisdom: "That game was bound to be tough; things should get better as they get healthier."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-1!

Monday, October 28, 2019

Patriots Top Latest Pretenders With 27-13 Win Over Browns

The Patriots rode another dominant defensive performance to a 27-13 win over the Browns. When coupled with Buffalo's loss, the win gives them a 2.5 game lead in the AFC East and coincidentally, the same 2.5-game lead over three other AFC contenders for playoff seeding (the Colts, Ravens, and Chiefs). Next up is a road tilt against those Ravens, who will be hungry for a win that could put them back in the hunt for regular-season supremacy in the conference.

The New England defense continued its turnover festival, recovering two Nick Chubb fumbles on consecutive plays -- the second of which was a great strip by Jonathan Jones. And on the *next* Cleveland play, QB Baker Mayfield threw the shovel pass right into the gut of lineman Lawrence Guy.

Mayfield is getting a lot of heat for that play, but it was really a timing throw where Guy blew up the blocking and made a great play. That should not be overlooked. (Trivia question: Two Pats defensive linemen have interceptions this season, when was the last year the Pats pulled that off? Bonus points if you can name either, or both, of the players that year. Answer below.)

The defense didn't have its best game though. It lost outside contain on Chubb a few times, and missed a bunch of tackles when he ran inside. They also showed that any defense can be vulnerable against a team that can run and pass effectively. It's long been the achilles heel of the Bill Belichick defenses, teams with balanced attacks. But it's probably an issue for any defense.

Linebacker Jamie Collins continues to be a monster on the field: 13 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2 QB hits on Sunday. And he was joined in the "plus" group by Adam Butler (4 tackles, 2 sacks, and 3 QB hits), and Jonathan Jones. The rest of the defense looked a bit slow and somewhat poor at tackling.

I'm hoping their performance had to do with the short week, two weeks of prep by the Browns, and them looking ahead to the Ravens game next weekend. But I fear they will look like that when facing better, more balanced offenses.

Offensively there were both hopeful and worrying signs. New receiver Mohamed Sanu made some nice blocks and had a big fourth-down converting catch. Not bad for a guy who arrived late last week. And rookie Jacobi Meyers appears to be in the Brady "circle of trust," as is veteran Ben Watson. These additions to stalwarts Julian Edelman (8 receptions, 78 yards, and 2 touchdowns) and Phillip Dorsett indicate a bright future for the passing game.

On the worrying side were things like their inability to line-up and just run the ball. They ran better out of spread formations, and with blocking back James Develin out for the year, they might be stuck with that. Also, their third-down conversion rate of 31% isn't great. And that's made worse because their kicker is a basketcase and they have to keep going for it on fourth down.

The inability to line up and run, along with a dropping rate of conversion on third- and fourth-downs is something to worry about. Perhaps O-line coach Dante Scarnecchia can't work his magic without more talent. If so, it might be time to trade for reinforcements.

On the plus side is Josh McDaniels' coaching. He called the play of the game in the third quarter. Cleveland had just scored to make it a one-score game, and the Patriots faced a third-and-10 at their own 16 yardline. If they failed to convert, they would have given it back to the Browns with good field position and momentum swinging their way.

But McDaniels' call was outstanding. There were two receivers stacked to the left, and he had Sanu motion in that direction to create a three-bunch. It looked like a typical Patriots wide-receiver screen pass to Sanu, and at the snap, that's exactly what Brady faked. That drew enough of the defense to have James White slip out to the right for a screen pass that went for 59 yards!

Four plays later, Brady threw a touchdown to Edelman and it was pretty much game over. McDaniels is overrated, IMO. But he earned his keep on that play; working against tendencies to switch field position and ultimately take a two-touchdown lead.

And I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the continued struggle in special teams. Punter Jake Bailey booted a kickoff out of bounds, giving the Browns the ball at their 40 yardline. And the Patriots took a delay penalty on another kickoff.

Also, kicker Mike Nugent had a kick blocked and missed a 34-yarder wide left. And his missing ways caused the Patriots to go for a fourth-down conversion instead of taking a 41-yard field goal attempt. This might not hurt against the 2-5 Browns, but eventually, when they face a good team (perhaps in the post season), it will come back to bite them.

For all the complaints I heard over the years about Stephen Gostkowski, I'm guessing most all of us would take him back right now, even if he was just 80% of his normal, reliable self.

Where does this leave us? 8-0 is quite an achievement, so revel in it. But don't overlook those Ravens just because the Bye week is the Sunday after.

Biggest on-going issue: The kicker. The Pats need to bring in some competition to see if they can fix this before the playoffs.

Non-Brady MVP: Jamie Collins, who is having an absolute monster of a season. Welcome back, Boogeyman!

Statistical Oddity: The three starting NFL QBs whom were drafted by Bill Belichick are 20-2 this season. Brady is 8-0, Jimmy Garoppolo is 7-0 (49ers), and Jacoby Brissett is 5-2 (Colts).

Water-cooler wisdom: "Here come the Ravens to finally test how good we are this year."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 8-0!

PPS. Trivia answer: In 2014, nose tackle Vince Wilfork and defensive tackle Dominique Easley each had one interception.

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Patriots Destroy Jets, 33-0

The local NFL entry kicked ass in NYC last night, drubbing the Jets in a 33-0 beatdown. The win keeps the Pats ahead of the surprising 5-1 Buffalo Bills, and puts them a full two-games clear of all other AFC contenders. Next up are the surprisingly bad Cleveland Browns, a 2-4 team that just hasn't lived up to their preseason hype.

This game might well have been over before it started. New England's defense has been so dominant against NY, the last time the Jets scored an offensive touchdown against the Pats was four meetings ago, in November of 2018. (Trivia question: Name the QB who threw that touchdown, or the receiver who caught it... answer below.)

The Patriots defense has morphed twice in the last two seasons, and the results have been spectacular. For about 17 years, Bill Belichick employed a bend-but-don't-break theory most defensive snaps. His belief was that if you made offenses drive for 10+ plays, they would make a mistake along the way. He also was a firm believer in avoiding giving up big plays at all costs.

But in 2018, they changed when Brian Flores took over for Matt Patricia. They covered up for talent deficiencies by playing more exotic defenses: the amoeba, the bullseye, 9-man fronts, 2-man rushes, man/zone concepts, zone/man concepts. They also stunted and blitzed up front more often than any other season, by far. And it paid off: they ended the year seventh in points allowed and rode their confusing defense to a Super Bowl win.

However, this year Belichick has taken over the defense. And they have changed 180-degrees from bend-but-don't-break. They added enough talent in the secondary and linebacking corps to play man-coverage almost exclusively and to blitz like maniacs from the first snap to the last. Last night, they blitzed with no safety help more than they probably did in the first 18 years under BB.

They had just one sack last night but got a fumble recovery on the play. And they added four more interceptions, and held the NY QB to 34% completions, and a QB rating of 3.6 (not a typo, 3.6). As of today, the Patriots are on pace for 59 sacks, an astonishing 48 takeaways, and only 110 points allowed. The first two would be the most under Belichick. The last would be a Super Bowl-era NFL record.

It looks a lot like Belichick is throwing caution to the wind, at least against the scrub teams they've played so far. It'll be interesting to see if he continues to attack against the Ravens, Cowboys, and Chiefs, all of whom can hurt you with long passes against blitzing defenses.

I hate to say it's tough to give individual credit on defense. But it is. They play such a disciplined team concept, it makes Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower, and the entire secondary look great. But without the guys up front and the inside LBs, none of it would be possible.

On offense, the team appears to be developing some help at receiver. Rookie Jacobi Meyers stepped up with five catches, Ben Watson added three more (including a big third-down catch), and even running back Brandon Bolden got into the act with four grabs.

Their running attack needs the return of a real fullback. Last night they used a linebacker, a tight end, and an extra offensive lineman, mostly to no great result. I keep hearing they are looking to sign a receiver. But they should concentrate on getting some offensive line help. And if James Develin won't be back at fullback this season, they need to develop or find someone to replace him.

Special teams was just fine. The only question mark is that they tried to make a fourth-down when they could have tried a 49-yard field goal. So that appears to be the outer range of Mike Nugent, the replacement kicker. Punter Jake Bailey had four kicks downed inside the 20 in last night's contest -- and two of them were placed perfectly, one going out of bounds at the 2 and the other bouncing just before the end zone and kicking back.

The defensive and special teams coaching has been outstanding. But the offensive coaching could use some work. Though it did appear they used the second half to practice a few things, which will come in handy as the season progresses.

Where does that leave us: 7-0 isn't too shabby. Before the season, I predicted the Pats would lose to the Browns... but that doesn't appear likely now. Even though Cleveland had their bye last week and the Patriots have a short week, it's tough to see how the Browns come into Gillette and grab a win.

Biggest on-going concern: It's the offensive line. The Jets couldn't make this a game, but the Pats O-line just isn't as consistent as in past years. Time for Dante Scarnecchia to work his magic.

Non-Brady MVP: Devin McCourty, with an INT and several pass-pressures that led to other INTs.

Statistical oddity: McCourty leads the NFL with five interceptions. Only one other Patriots player ever led the league in that category for a season. (Trivia question: Name the player and the year... answer below.)

Water-cooler wisdom: "8-0 is likely. If they beat the Ravens, 16-0 is possible."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 7-0!

PPS. Trivia answer #1: QB Josh McCown threw the touchdown to wideout Jermaine Kearse.

PPPS. Trivia answer #2:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
Cornerback Kyle Arrington tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions in 2011.

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Pats Top Washington Easily, 33-7

The Patriots pulled away in the second half for an easy victory in Washington, 33-7. Their 5-0 record keeps them atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the 4-1 Bills. Next up are the New York Giants, on a short week, this Thursday night in Foxboro.

Often there isn't much to learn from blowout wins. But there was today.

After the game, Tom Brady was understandably unhappy with the offensive performance in the first half. They came out throwing, and throwing, and throwing. Brady threw a personal high 31 passes in the first half, and the offensive imbalance led to neither a high completion percentage nor a great QB rating. He had one TD but also one INT in the first half.

And suddenly in the second half, it was all run all the time. They fed the ball to Sony Michel, James White, and even special teamer Brandin Bolden. After 7 rushing attempts in the first half, the Pats rushed 20 times after halftime.

What all this tells me is that they themselves don't know their offensive identity yet. They hoped to have Antonio Brown to stretch and challenge defenses, but that didn't work out. Then they wanted to be a run-first team, but their starting center, left guard, and blocking back all got injured.

They lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement, and they've gotten very little production out of the tight end position. And I think they used this game as a test run; to see what they have in the different phases. (Or maybe they tried testing the passing game first, but when the game was only 12-7 at they half they decided to win it.)

Additionally, the offensive line is having trouble protecting Brady. But that doesn't excuse his two horrendous red-zone interceptions the past two weeks. Take the sack or throw it away, TB12, but don't give the ball away when points are on the line.

At the moment they'd be lost without Julian Edelman. He wasn't perfect on Sunday, but his 8 catches (110 yards and 1 TD) five first downs (one by penalty -- a big 40-yarder) were crucial. It's no surprise they won recent Super Bowls without Gronkowski but not without Edelman; he is the indispensable cog in the machine.

Over the next few weeks it'll be interesting to see who steps up at receiver. Everyone knows Edelman, White, and Gordon are there; but who will make the big catches when those guys are covered? If I had to guess, it would be Ryan Izzo or Jacobi Meyers. But at this point, it's still a guess.

On defense, they caused two more turnovers; an interception by Jason McCourty and a fumble recovery by Jamie Collins. But there wasn't much to learn on defense yesterday; we already knew they were great. However, it's starting to look like they could be historically great.

The 2000 Baltimore Ravens hold the record for fewest points allowed in a 16-game season, and the Patriots are ahead of their pace. The Ravens gave up 10.3 points per game; the Patriots so far have given up 6.8 points per game. And after five games, the Ravens had given up 55 points, while the Pats have given up just 34.

Now the Patriots still have to face the Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, and those same Ravens. Those are some potent offenses. However, they also face the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills again, who mustered 10 total points against the defense (the Jets got 14 on defense and special teams). But it's interesting to note where this defense stands historically at the moment.

The kicking game is shaky though. Stephen Gostkowki's replacement, Mike Nugent, pushed an extra point wide, and then hit the upright on another one that ended up going through. The Patriots also eschewed the field goal after the first PAT miss, opting to go for it instead on fourth-and-one. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the kicker. If they haven't sorted this out in a few weeks, expect them to bring in another kicker for competition.

On the other hand, the punting has been excellent, and the team has been validated for letting go of longtime punter Ryan Allen. Jake Bailey is tied for the second-most punts downed inside the 20 yard-line (12 of them). And he hits them out of bounds often, neutralizing the other teams return game.

No commentary on the coaching except this little tidbit: apparently Bill Belichick himself is calling the defensive signals. Apparently he wasn't happy with how that went in the preseason, with Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick sharing that duty. So he took it over.

Where does that leave us? 5-0 is good for now, and the schedule doesn't really start to get tough for another few weeks. Hopefully the hamstring injury to Phillip Dorsett doesn't keep him out for long.

Biggest on-going concern: Lack of targets in the red zone. The Pats really struggled when they got deep in the red zone. They used to have Gronkowski and Edelman, both of whom demanded double-coverage. But without Gronk, the rest of the field isn't quite as open as it used to be.

Non-Brady MVP: Dont'a Hightower. Led the team in tackles (8), sacks (1.5 for 10.5 yards), tackles for a loss (4), QB pressures (2), and even threw in a pass defended. That would probably make him the non-QB MVP in almost any game this year!

Statistical Oddity: The Patriots lead the league in sacks with 24, putting them on a pace for 77 on the season, which would break the NFL record. (Trivia: which team set that record? Answer below.)

The reason it's an oddity -- the Patriots have never led the league in sacks since the stat became official in 1982. Not. One. Damned. Year!

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Nice to get a win, but it'll be weeks before we learn much about the team."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-0!

PPS. Trivia answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

The 1984 Chicago Bears set the record with 72 sacks in 1984. The next year, they won the Super Bowl, over the upstarts from Foxboro :(

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Patriots Hold Off Bills, 16-10

The Pats scurried out of town with a 6-point win Sunday, topping the Bills 16-10 in Buffalo. The win puts them at 4-0, a game up on the now 3-1 Bills. Next up is a date with Washington, who might have a worse quarterback than Buffalo. (I know, hard to believe.)

You've no doubt read all about it, given that the update is late. Here are some quick thoughts, and some overarching themes for the team.

The Offense

The Patriots offense struggled on Sunday, and it was mostly due to Bills head coach Sean McDermott. His defenses have given Tom Brady trouble since he was in Carolina. In two games against the Bills last year, Brady had 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, and two of his worst four QB ratings of the year. But it isn't Brady that worries me; his struggles against that defense are understandable.

It's the running game that is of most concern. It has been inconsistent at best, for three main reasons.

First, fullback James Develin is on IR for at least eight weeks, and maybe more. His blocking can't be replaced easily. And when teams tried to avoid contact with Develin, he was an actual pass-catching threat out of the backfield. No doubt the next man up won't be a dual threat.

Second, the offensive line is in flux. They lost left tackle Isiah Wynn to IR, too. And that change, coupled with the preseason loss of center David Andrews seems to have put the line in a funk. Coach Dante Scarnecchia will likely get this worked out by mid-season. But for now, things aren't clicking like they usually would.

And third, Sony Michel is hampering things because he apparently can't get involved in the passing game. So when he comes in the game, the other team knows he will either run it or stay in to block. He had just seven catches last year, but zero so far in 2019. The opposition simply doesn't worry about him catching a pass.

(Also of note in the running game, the Pats seem to want to keep feeding Michel the ball. Even though both James White and Rex Burkhead can run or catch passes, and give them a lot more flexibility.)


As to the passing game, it was poor versus the Bills for some of the reasons mentioned above. They do need more weapons, and I suspect the return of Ben Watson this week and continued growth for Jacobi Meyers will help there.

The Defense

The Patriots D is scary good this year. They've given up 13 points in four games (14 were scored against the offense and on special teams). Even with the offensive and special teams miscues, they are on pace to give up 108 points -- which would be the lowest total in a 16-game season by a wide margin. The current record is 165 points. (Trivia: name the team and the year that pulled that off. Answer below.)

The media finally caught up to my blog in noting how great the Patriots D was in the first half of games last year. And since they seem confused by how they improved their second-half defense this year, I'll save them the work of looking at film and everything and just give them the answer: it's the players.

Last year, they had okay players but came into games with consistently great gameplans. But once good teams got a look at their plans, they could usually adjust and then score in the second half. (Best example is the Chiefs, who scored 9 total points in two first-halves, and then scored 62 in two combined second-halves.)

The Pats always had the schemes, and last year had a great play-caller in Brian Flores. But this year, they added veterans Michael Bennett and Jamie Collins, got Ja'Whaun Bentley back from injury, and brought in rookie Chase Winovich. They also have Jonathan Jones, top-rated corner in the game, shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore, and JC Jackson and Jason McCourty playing great.

They team has so much depth that linebackers captain Elandon Roberts can't even get on the field. He's been on the field for just 61 of 258 defensive snaps; 23.6%.

In case you can't tell, I have no concerns about the D. Sure they haven't played great teams yet, but holding the Steelers to 3 points with Ben Roethlisberger in the lineup sold me. They have a chance to be historically great.

Special Teams

Remember in the preseason primer, when I noted the Patriots lost their best special-teams coverage guy in Brandon King (link). If so, maybe you recall Matthew Slater taking two dumb "run out of bounds and stay there" penalties trying to make up for King's absence. And if you realized that, then you probably took notice of the re-signing of long-time Patriots special teamer Jordan Richards this week.

The coverage has been okay so far. They clearly miss King, though his trip to IR barely drew any attention. The new punter sometimes outkicks his coverage. That's only a problem if the boot doesn't land out of bounds, but that does happen sometimes. And Slater is working too hard to make up for King -- sometimes to his detriment.

Slater needed help in coverage. Maybe Richards can provide that.

As for the rest of special teams, the big story is the team placing kicker Stephen Gostkowski on injured reserve. He's likely done for the year; reports are he'll get season-ending hip surgery.

His replacement is in already. And he can't do much worst than Gostkowski through the first four games. But he should do better -- after all, Gostkowski was injured!

Coaching

So far, whomever is calling the defensive plays has proven to be an excellent replacement for Flores. Bill Belichick gets a lot of credit for the Pats D (and well he should). But as we saw with the difference between Matt Patricia (gave up 41 points to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII) and Flores (gave up 3 to the Rams in Super Bowl LIII), the defensive coordinator makes a real difference.

My only gripe with the coaching was their clock mismanagement at the end of the Bills game. In a game where they had trouble throwing the ball, it made no sense to attempt passes when Buffalo had no timeouts and their offense had been putrid all day.

The game was a one-score affair. And in fact, if the Bills had somehow scored a TD, they could have won it with an extra point. So rather than "go for the kill" with two passes, the Pats should have run the ball and take the clock to the 2:00 warning. After punting it back to Buffalo, they likely would have had to go 80+ yards with zero timeouts in about 1:50. And their offense was awful (and down to it's second-string QB).

Just a little thing. The game worked out anyway, but for future reference, don't pull an Atlanta and lose a game doing it.

Where does that leave us? 4-0 is pretty good after 4 weeks, so enjoy it. The Pats still rank near the top of all the power rankings around, and the offense should play better as the O-line gels and the younger receivers and Ben Watson work their way in. Washington is the next sacrificial lamb for the Pats; plan to relax for the second half this Sunday :D

Biggest on-going issue: For the moment it's the field goal kicking. It might not risk costing them a game for a while, but eventually they'll be depending on an unproven kicker in a big spot. Keep your fingers crossed.

Non-Brady MVP: Kyle Van Noy, who led the team in tackles (8), had two sacks (for 17 yards lost), three QB hits, and two forced fumbles.

Statistical Oddity: Devin McCourty tied the NFL record with an interception in four straight games. (Trivia: this record was originally set by another Patriots player, can you name him? Answer below.)

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Why not just cancel the rest of the AFC season and redo last year's AFC Championship game with the Chiefs right now?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 4-0!

PPS. Trivia answers:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

#1: the 2000 Baltimore Ravens set the record for fewest points allowed in a 16-game season (165).

#2 McCourty and Mike Haynes are the only two players to intercept at least one pass in four consecutive games. McCourty goes for five on Sunday!