What the NFL Should Do About COVID-19

You've undoubtedly read about the on-going COVID-19 outbreak it the Tennessee Titans' organization. And of course, you know about the isolated positive tests around the league.

There are a lot of ideas about how to handle this situation. Here is my take on the steps needed to contain and get past the current outbreak and any future ones.

Step 1: Close down for two weeks, starting right now

If the NFL doesn't close things down, they risk even more players and coaches being exposed to the coronavirus. And health concerns aside, if the Titans' outbreak becomes a league-wide outbreak, they risk losing a month or more.

Shutting down and quarantining for two weeks means that teams will simply miss their weeks 5 and 6 schedules. And those game can be made up by postponing the playoffs and playing the games in early January.

No one will give the league any crap if they play the Super Bowl in mid-February or even early March. Everyone involved -- players, coaches, fans, television networks, fantasy football sites, Vegas -- they all want football. And shutting down for two weeks now makes it more likely they will get football. 

Step 2: Give players, coaches, officials, and fans another chance to opt-out

Given the known climate and current conditions, people should be given another opportunity to protect their own health and the health of their families and communities. People's own health situations might have changed, or they might have more misgivings about playing under current conditions.

The COVID-19 status in some states has gotten better and in some states it's gotten worse. Giving everyone involved another chance to skip the rest of the season is fair and would show the NFL really does care about player health and safety.

Step 3: Implement new health and safety protocols

The NFL now knows how and why the Titans outbreak got worse. Titans' players engaged in extra-team practices and events, which worsened the outbreak for them (they continue to have new positive tests). So make new rules that can avoid those risks.

Given the incubation period, any positive test should result in immediate lockdown/quarantine of the entire team. Contact tracing should mean that anyone who spent more than a minute within six feet the infected player or coach should not play in any games until after the maximum incubation period and continuous negative test results.

Even in the modern game, rosters have sometimes been limited to as few as 33 active players per team per game. So if a team has 10 players sidelined for a week, so be it. Every team is under the same rules, so live with the results and move on.

Step 4: Increase penalties for those who violate protocols in step 3

Football players and coaches are always trying to get an edge. And the NFL can't allow those risk-takers to put the entire sport in jeopardy. The franchises and the sport are always worth more than any single game or even a single season. The NFL needs to make coaches and players understand that.

Everyone involved needs to know that violations of the rules will be punished through fines, suspensions, loss of future draft picks, and even forfeited games. No exceptions.

Coaches and players are short-term thinkers by nature. They know that preparation and winning the next game is crucial to their futures. So they need to be reminded that they will have no future if they put the sport at risk.

Step 5: Repeat steps 1-4 if another team has an outbreak similar to Tennessee's

Again, no one will care if the league has to push back the playoffs to make up regular-season games in January/February. Just move the playoffs to February/March and play the Super Bowl in March/April.

Every positive COVID-19 test is a risk. Any outbreaks that cross team lines should result in closing down for two weeks to figure out how best to keep things safe.

Summary

Just my two-cents worth. But I will say that the NFL ignores the widening outbreak at their own peril. No sport is immune. Hell, the U.S. Government can't even guarantee there won't be an outbreak in the White House!

Do the right thing, Roger Goodell. For once, finally do the right thing.

- Scott

Wild Card Weekend Wild Stat

I know Belichick preaches that his defense stay back and make sure they don't get beaten on big passing plays. But when he coaches Wild Card weekend, he might want to change his tune.

Here are the total stats for the last two games he coached the first weekend of the playoffs:

Starting Quarterbacks (Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill):
12 of 25 for 106 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and a 39.75 QB rating

Starting Running Backs:
56 rushes for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns

I think the running backs did more damage than the quarterbacks on both occasions.

- Scott

Patriots Fall To Titans 20-13, Exit Playoffs

The Patriots lost for the second straight week at home with playoff implications on the line. The last time that happened under Bill Belichick was never. Last night the Tennessee Titans handed them a 20-13 loss, and it will be the Titans advancing to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The loss knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs and leaves them with a lot of soul-searching this off-season.

The maddening thing about Pats playoff losses is that they are always close. When you get blown out, you can just write it off as "not your day." But when you lose by one score or less, every mistake, every unlucky bounce, every single play can be micro-analyzed for its impact on the point differential.

So of course, that's what I'm going to do. The Pats gave up a ton of rushing yards, the punting game was unimpressive, and the offense sputtered. But the loss came down to killer mistakes on a few plays, and I'll list the ones I thought were the most impactful here.

Killer Mistake #1: Josh McDaniels play-calling on short yardage

On first-and-goal from the Titans 1-yard-line, McDaniels called for a heavy formation with everyone in tight and called three straight runs without any misdirection. It's football 101 that you can't do that unless you have a dominant offensive line or the other team is weak on the D-line. A touchdown there would have put the Pats up by 10, and maybe Tennessee would have leaned more heavily on QB Ryan Tannehill -- which would have played right into the Pats hands. The field goal they got didn't do enough to change the Titans game plan.

This wasn't McDaniels' only bad call though. Nearly every time they brought in Elandon Roberts to block, it was a run that followed Roberts. By the third quarter, the Titans were flooding those gaps with safeties, which left them singled-up on receivers all over the field. Where was the play-action on those plays? How about sending Roberts left and running right?

McDaniels wasn't bad all day long. His screen-pass calls were well-timed and mostly successful. But on short yardage, here is how it went:

• Runs from running formation: 7 plays for minus-1 yards (0 first downs)
• Run from pass formation: 1 play for 14 yards (1 first down)
• Passes: 3-of-5 for 32 yards (3 first downs)

That "minus-1 yards" is not a misprint. Maybe McDaniels would like to have this game back.

Killer Mistake #2: Shaq Mason illegally downfield

Patriots first possession of the second half, they drove from their own 13 to the 37 yard-line. On third-and-10, Brady bought time in the pocket and found an uncovered Ben Watson for a 38-yard gain to the Titans 25. The Pats were moving the ball and in business, ready to score and take the lead.

Wait... flag on the play. Inexplicably, Shaq Mason wandered downfield instead of staying back to protect Brady. That five-yard penalty that cost the Patriots 43 yards and a first down. Next play was a screen that lost 4 yards and the Patriots punted.

I heard some analysis saying that Mason might have thought Brady was running or that he was trying to block his guy too aggressively. Bullshit. He had absolutely no business going downfield on a pass play unless he knew the quarterback was running. It's the second thing they teach you as an offensive lineman -- right after they show you how to get away with holding :D

This was a huge brain-cramp by Mason. By and large he had an excellent year. But in this critical moment, he cost the team points in a game they eventually were going to lose by a single point (the garbage-time pick-six notwithstanding).

Killer Mistake #3: Not scoring after the INT

On the first play of the fourth quarter, Tannehill was pressured and threw the most Ryan Tannehill of interceptions -- a big lob ball that was easily picked by safety Duron Harmon at the Patriots 41 yard-line. Still in a one-point game, all the Pats needed was about 30 yards to attempt a field goal for the lead.

Two plays later, the Patriots even got bailed out with a defensive holding, giving them a free five yards and a first down instead leaving them with third-and-10. And things looked promising when they gained four and then three yards on the next two plays.

But a short pass to Dorsett fell incomplete, leaving them to contemplate whether to punt on fourth down. Ultimately they tried the punt to pin the Titans deep, but Jake Bailey's kick sailed directly into the end zone for a touchback (net of 26 yards).

Not sure if I disagree with the punt. But I think the better scenario was to spread the field and run the ball on third down and gain a few yards, to give yourself either a first down or a chance on fourth down.

And not to pile on McDaniels, but that situation called for emptying the playbook. Whatever play you had in your back pocket, it was time to call it. The misdirection screen, a Jet Sweep, play-action QB draw, Statue of Liberty -- any play that gets you 10 more yards and a shot at a field goal. I know they have a section on the playsheet with high-confidence calls. All three of these downs should have come from that section. Period.

Killer Mistake #4: Julian Edelman's dropped pass

With 3:26 left in the game and the Patriots at their own 37 yard-line (why was it always the 37?), they faced a second-and-four. Brady took the snap and threw a perfect pass to Julian Edelman for an easy first down. But Edelman looked to run before he secure the ball and he dropped the pass.

Edelman has had more drops this year than in past years, and that is likely a result of all the wear and tear on his body through the years. But they really needed him to catch that one. A first down there and the Titans would have started to tighten up and the game would be moving in the Patriots favor.

But after Edelman's drop, a pass to Phillip Dorsett fell incomplete and the Patriots punted. It would be their last meaningful possession of the game, because of the next Killer Mistake...

Killer Mistake #5: Allowing Derrick Henry to run late

Henry ran wild all day, ending the game with 34 carries for 182 yards (5.4 average) and a touchdown. By and large, the Patriots seemed okay with that. And it worked for most of the game; the Patriots only gave up 14 points and were in position where a single score would win them the game.

But after their final punt was downed at the Tennessee 13, it was time to bring up a safety and/or corner to make sure Henry didn't get a first down. With 3:10 on the clock and the Pats holding 3 timeouts, if they stoned the Titans on three straight downs, they would have gotten the ball back with 2:30 or so, plenty of time to drive for a winning field goal.

But Henry gained 2 yards, 5 yards, 11 yards and a first down, and then the Patriots loaded up the box to stop him. That came too late, as stopping them at that point only left the Pats with 15 seconds on the clock.

The smarter move would be to run-blitz the entire possession and if it was a pass have those players get to the QB. Their talented secondary should have been able to hold up for 1.5 seconds a play, and it also would have increased the chances of another Tannehill pick. Sitting back just allowed another 2:00 to vaporize.

One additional but not quite "Killer" mistake: the decision not to field the final punt

Please tell me that Belichick didn't sign-off to have no returner on the last punt of the game. Sure the game was pretty much over, but they tried this earlier in the season and the same thing happened. The ball bounced short and rolled deep into the Patriots end, and it took precious seconds off the clock.

Last night, the ball landed at the 25 yard-line with about 20 seconds left. By the time it was downed, it was at the 1 yard-line with 15 seconds left. Gaining 45 yards in 20 seconds is a lot more likely than gaining 69 yards in 15 seconds.

I'd like to think special teams coach Joe Judge made that decision. But I fear it's another mistake by Belichick in the "game operations" realm -- and he's had way too many of those this year compared to previous years.

Other General Problems:

1. Jake Bailey chose a bad day to have his worst performance of the year. He shanked one kick. But on four others he had two downed inside the 20 and two go into the end zone. His counterpart on the Titans, Brett Kern, had four downed inside the 20 and zero go into the end zone.

2. James White ran once for 14 yards and never again in the game. This despite the Patriots known pattern of running when Sony Michel was in the game and passing when White was in the game. Going against this tendency had worked recently, and it worked last night. It should have been used more.

3. Giving up 182 yards to Henry was unacceptable. He had 75 yards on six carries on one of the Titans' touchdown drives, for crying out loud! Make some adjustments, beat your blockers, and get this guy on the ground!

4. After Patrick Chung went out with an injury, backup safety Terrence Brooks was involved two significant plays. He gave up a touchdown and allowed a first-down on Tennessee's final possession. Blech :(

One Last Point

I've heard some in the media blame the defense for the loss. They claim that their inability to stop Henry was more problematic than the offensive futility.

Puh-lease with that crap. If your defense gives up 14 points in a home playoff game, you should win. Hell, the Buffalo Bills with their extremely limited quarterback, even they scored 19 on the road yesterday.

The loss is squarely on the offense. If BB, TB12, and JE11 come back next year, they'll have to fix that side of the ball.

Where does that leave us? Pondering a longer off-season, perhaps enjoying some playoff football where we don't have a dog in the race, and wondering when we'll find out if TB12 is about to bolt -- maybe even to the Bolts. Enjoy the time off, it's not often you get to relax in January :D

Statistical Oddity: The last two times New England played on Wild Card weekend, Ray Rice ran for 159 yards and Derrick Henry ran for 182 yards. In between those contests, the Patriots played 22 playoff games and allowed just two other 100-yard rushers (Trivia question: can you name either, or both, of the other 100-yard rushers in those games? Hint: the Patriots won both games. Answer below.)

Water-cooler wisdom: "Playoff losses are always so abrupt, but Tennessee was the better team on Saturday."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-5 & 0-1... :(

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The Ravens' Justin Forsett ran for 129 yards in the AFC Championship Game in January of 2015, and the Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch ran for 102 in the next game, Super Bowl XLIX. Interestingly, both games ended with late interceptions to seal the victories.

Patriots vs. Titans Playoff Preview

So it's just a few days until the Patriots take on the Tennessee Titans at Gillette Stadium. The game feels like a bit of a tossup, with the Pats favored by just 4.5 points at home (which makes them a 1.5-point fave on a neutral field). However, fivethirtyeight.com gives the Patriots a 69% chance of coming out with a win.

I'd usually look at the last game the teams played and try to determine if enough had changed to alter the outcome. But even though they last suited up against each other just 14 months ago, so much has changed that that tilt (November 11, 2018) will have little bearing on how this game goes.

So here is my best attempt to put together how the teams will attack each other and which team has specific advantages in particular areas of play.

When The Titans Have The Ball

The Titans are pretty well-suited to attack the Patriots defense. Most teams that had success against the Pats either ran the ball well or threw shorter passes to tight ends and running backs. Teams with lots of deep-receiving talent have largely been shut down.

Tennessee's running game is stout, led by RB Derrick Henry's 1,540 yards on 303 carries (5.1 yards per carry), and his very impressive 16 rushing TDs. The next most productive back was old friend Dion Lewis, but his stats (54 for 209 yards and 0 TDs) pale in comparison to Henry.

The Titans are clearly a one-back team. The problem is that Henry doesn't often make people miss, he is more of a downhill/yards-after-contact type of runner. And the Patriots usually clog the middle and are very sure tacklers this year. If the game stays close and the Titans stay committed to the run, Henry versus the run defense could become an epic battle of wills.

In the passing game, the Titans have the speed burner, A.J. Brown, but he will likely be neutralized by the Pats talented secondary and/or scheming. The danger for the local-11 is when they throw to Lewis (25 catches for 164 yards) or tight ends Jonnu Smith (35 for 439) and Anthony Firkser (14 for 205).

(Note: injured tight end Delanie Walker is a big loss for Tennessee. But unknown tight ends have had career days going against Kyle Van Noy and Dont'a Hightower. So don't assume Walker's absence will make the tight ends ineffective.)

Despite improvements in the secondary and disciplined play along the line, the Patriots linebackers are still vulnerable when attacked through the air. Brown might be the show-stopper, but the tight ends and backs will have to keep the chains moving if the Titans expect to win.

When The Patriots Have The Ball

This matchup isn't half-bad for the Patriots. Tennessee plays nickel as their base defense and usually brings one linebacker to rush four at the passer. Behind the line, they play a vanilla zone, which is a defense that Pats QB Tom Brady has traditionally destroyed.

The Titans are near the bottom of the league when it comes to pressuring the passer. They blitz just 24.8% of the time (21st in the league) and get pressure just 21.2% of the time (25th). The odd thing is that in 2018, they blitzed the 9th-most, which seems to indicate they've become more conservative on defense. They will occasionally throw in a corner blitz; old friend cornerback Logan Ryan is fourth on the team with 4.5 sacks this season.

This style of play has not helped the secondary. Ryan allowed 66% completions on the passes thrown his way and gave up 5 touchdowns. And star Safety Kevin Byard dropped off from last year, too, allowing 57% completions and 3 touchdowns (versus 50% and 1 TD last year). Additionally, both have been targeted more, with Ryan's targets increasing an astonishing 61% (from 64 last year to 103 this year!).

Brady should have plenty of time to read the defense and choose the right receiver. In fact, with Tennessee's lack of pressure, he could have enough time to let receivers get open before throwing it -- something he hasn't always had in the past when he would throw to a spot and trust the receiver to be there.

The New England receiving corps isn't as great this year as it has been in the past. But this opponent seems tailor-made for Julian Edelman and James White to attack short and Phillip Dorsett and N'Keal Harry to attack deep.

Tennessee should be stouter against the run. They gave up just 4.0 yards per carry this year (ranking them 7th), and the Patriots gained just 3.8 yards per carry (ranking them 25th).

Expect the Patriots to soften up the defense with short throws, and then use the running game effectively. Don't expect them to lineup and run it down the Titans throats, it won't be happening.

Special Teams

As great as Patriots rookie Jake Bailey has kicked, Titans punter Brett Kern was even better this year. So no great advantage there.

And believe it or not, as we enter the playoffs the Patriots field goal game is in much steadier hands! Nick Folk successfully made 14 of 17 field goals (84%) and 12 of 12 extra points (I'll let you do the math on that). The Titans current kicker, Greg Joseph, hasn't attempted a field goal this season. He's been with Tennessee two games and has only tried extra points (of which he has made them all).

Neither team has particularly dynamic returners in the punt or kickoff game. Though the Patriots kick coverage teams are annually among the best in the NFL.

One place where the 2019 Patriots have excelled is in finding ways to block kicks. Special teams coach Joe Judge has done an amazing job identifying weak spots in opposing blocking schemes. And the Patriots have blocked four punts this year, returning two of them for touchdowns.

Coaching

The 2018 game was former player Mike Vrabel's chance to show his stuff to his former head coach, Bill Belichick. And that has happened quite a bit, where a new head coach that was formerly associated with Belichick will clip him the first time.

But now that Vrabel's team has played two full seasons in his system, no doubt Belichick knows how to attack it, both offensively and defensively. The question is whether he has the horses on either side of the ball.

Quick Hits

1. Though Lewis might seem like a threat in the passing game, he has averaged exactly one reception per game in the last seven contests in which he played. He has 25 grabs on the year, but most of them came early on.

2. For some reason the Titans kickoff short and force teams to return the ball. That's probably a smart strategy against the Patriots, because running back Brandon Bolden isn't exactly Cordarrelle Patterson back there.

3. Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has thrown 11 interceptions in 11 games against the Patriots. And some of those Pats teams fielded awful secondaries. He will need to be careful with the ball against this Pats team -- they have three players near the top of the NFL in interceptions.

Note: for all the consternation about the man Tannehill replaced, Marcus Mariota, Mariota has a lower interception rate (1.3%) than Tannehill (2.1%) this year.

4. No one would mistake Tannehill for Lamar Jackson, but the Patriots need to keep the Titans QB in the pocket. He's rushed 43 times for 185 yards (4.3ypc) and 4 touchdowns this year. And in a one-game elimination, all he'd need to do is make two or three plays with his feet to keep drives going.

Summary

If the Titans play their standard defense, the Pats should put up points. So the game will come down to how well the Patriots defense plays. Tannehill does better against zone-coverage, and the Patriots don't play much of that. So it would seem to lean in their favor.

However, Derrick Henry is the X-factor. If the Pats can't contain him with their front-seven, bringing extra players to stop him will make them vulnerable to the pass -- especially play-action passes. They'll need to read their keys and rally to the ball when it's a run. When it's a pass, they should be good enough to make Ryan Tannehill look like the player we all knew and loved-to-play when he was in Miami.

Statistical oddity that will likely never be repeated: The only two teams to use four field goal kickers this year meet in the playoffs -- that's right, your New England Patriots and the Tennessee Titans.

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-4 & 0-0!

Patriots Earn A Playoff Bye, Crushing Jets 38-3

The Patriots took care of business, beating the listless Jets 38-3 to secure the #2 playoff seed and a week off before their next game. The win was predictable; Tom Brady is now 14-2 against the Jets in regular-season home games. In two weeks, the Patriots will host the Texans, Ravens, or Chargers at Gillette Stadium.

There was very little to learn from the Jets game. Reports were that some New York players skipped meetings this week because they were sure the coach was going to be fired. They had checked out, and it showed in the game.

However, three trends about this Patriots team have emerged since mid-season.

1. Defensive improvement

Starting in week eight, the Pats gave up 68 points in two games to Tennessee and Miami (34ppg), and 78 points in the other seven games total (11ppg). And those seven games included tilts with the potent Packers and Steelers offensive teams, the Steelers game in Pittsburgh.

The secondary is playing much better, with rookie JC Jackson taking over the second corner position and linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts improving more than you could possible expect. Also, discipline within the scheme along the front four/five is much better than earlier in the year.

They still give up lots of yards, but are making teams settle for field goals and turning the ball over much more often. There won't be any bad offenses in the playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see if the Steelers game was poor play by Pittsburgh or better play by the Patriots defense.

2. Running the football

Excepting the losses to Tennessee and Miami, the Patriots averaged 153 rushing yards a game in the last nine contests. The offensive line has been dominant of late. And fullback James Develin has been a devastating blocker in multiple games.

It's true that this is partly out of necessity, because the passing attack has been mediocre. But it's also true that other teams knew the Patriots were going to run, and they still couldn't slow them down.

3. Diverse offensive attack

Over the years, the Patriots have succeed in the playoffs more often when they used a lot of receivers and runners on offense. That kind of diverse attack always served the well, because teams usually key on your best performers in the playoffs.

To that point, in four of their last five games, three or more rushers had double-digit yards on the ground. And in two of those games, they had five such rushers. It makes it tough to key on one player, and also means the Patriots can bring in fresh legs over an over to attack defenders who have been on the field all game long.

And in the last six games, the Pats had at least five players with multiple receptions in five of them. Again, this just makes it tough to key on one guy, giving opposing defenses fits and lots of players to cover.

In the past, teams would often double-team Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. And despite Gronk's lesser production this year, teams leave him singled-up at their own peril. But even if they only double Edelman, that leaves Gronk, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett (who has been coming on), James White, Rex Burkhead, and Cordarrelle Patterson in one-on-one coverage.

4. Quick hits

A. The Patriots have four non-offensive touchdowns this year, two on special teams and two on defense.

B. Despite a lot of consternation about the number of Patriots penalties, they are third-best in the league, committing less than 50 yards worth of penalties per game.

C. The kickoff returns are a real concern. The Jets average start after a kickoff was the 32 yard-line; not good.

D. The last time the Patriots clinched a playoff bye the last weekend of the season with an 11-5 record was the 2001 season. IIRC, they won the Super Bowl that year :D

Where does that leave us. We can all relax next weekend, as the next Patriots opponent takes a beating Wild Card Weekend. If you want to root for something, hope the Chargers win and the #6 seed loses (the Colts, Titans, and Steelers, depending on tonight's game). That would put division rival LA in Kansas City, which is always a tough draw in the playoffs.

Biggest ongoing concern: It's inconsistency. In 2019, penalties, poor kick coverage, missed field goals, bad defensive calls, and poor tackling have all cost the team games. It's amazing they have a playoff bye at all. But now that they do, they need to shore up those issues, because they aren't more talented than the other teams in the post-season.

Statistical oddity: The Pats gave up 34 points in one game against Miami, and 41 total points in their other five AFC East tilts.

Water-cooler wisdom: "After all the hand-wringing, the Pats are two wins away from the Super Bowl yet again."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  11-5 & 0-0!

Titans Blow Out Patriots, 34-10

The Tennessee Titans were most inhospitable hosts yesterday, dominating from the opening kickoff and cruising to a 34-10 win over the Patriots. Happily the Dolphins lost, too, so New England remains up by two games in the AFC East. Unhappily, Kansas City won, giving them a two-game cushion in the race for playoff byes (and the LA Chargers currently have a half-game lead in that race).

This game was ugly from the beginning. The Titans returned the opening kickoff 58 yards to start in New England territory, one of three drives that started on the Patriots side of the field -- all in the first half. Tennessee scored 24 points in the first half, while the Pats scored on two of their first three drives and then went bagel over their last nine possessions.

It's pretty apparent that Mike Vrabel was the real architect of the Houston Texans defense that gave the Patriots fits in last year's playoffs. Because Vrabel left Houston for Tennessee, and the Patriots easily beat the Texans but struggled mightily against the Titans.

The three best Patriots on the field were not on the team anymore: Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler from last year, and Logan Ryan who signed with the Titans in 2017. The current Patriots couldn't do much right except for punting the ball, where Ryan Allen got more practice this week (6 kicks) than in any game since opening day.

The team just stunk up the joint. Lots of bad performances on both sides of the ball, poor coverage on defense, poor execution on offense, reverting to early-season form by going 3-of-15 on third-down conversions, and coaching that seemed ill-prepared to adjust. Even reliable corner Stephon Gilmore notched his worst game of 2018.

Tom Brady was under constant pressure, and it didn't help that he missed wide open receivers to keep feeding the ball to Josh Gordon. Injuries along the O-line led to very few rushing yards, botched screen passes, and 3 sacks & 6 QB hits of Brady. Only Julian Edelman played well, and he took a pounding after each of his nine receptions.

I can't go into the gory details because there were just too many screw-ups. Can we just chalk this up to the team letting down after a big win over Green Bay and thinking about their upcoming Bye week?

So where does that leave us? Mostly hoping that when Gronkowski returns from injury the offense will be better. (It should be.) There was nothing to hang their hats on yesterday; Tennessee outschemed them, outsmarted them, and outplayed them. The Bye week couldn't be coming at a more important point.

Biggest ongoing concern: The offensive play on the road has been poor. The offense scored only 10 points in Detroit, 24 in Chicago, 18 in Buffalo, and just 10 yesterday. And if not for two special teams TDs in Chicago, they'd be 1-4 on the road and fighting to stay atop their division.

Non-Brady MVP: Edelman was really the only standout, 9 receptions for 104 yards and a completed pass for the second straight week.

Statistical Oddity: James Develin ran the ball for the first time since October 12, 2014. And he made the most of it, scoring the team's only touchdown.

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Bye week seemed to start a day early for the Pats."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 7-3!

Patriots Top Texans, 27-20

It wasn't always pretty, but in the end, the Patriots prevailed Sunday, beating their long-time whipping boys, the Houston Texans, 27-20 in Foxboro. The win put them at the top of the AFC East, tied with the Dolphins (also 27-20 winners), with the Jets game still be to be played Monday night. Next up is a trip to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars on Sunday.

This game reminded me of why some commentators say the first month of the season is similar to what the preseason used to be. Five turnovers, sloppy tackling, poor clock management (by the Texans), and a few whiffs by the Patriots offensive line. The lack of playing time in the preseason was obvious to anyone who watched even a quarter of the game. With luck, things will look better as the season progresses.

Offense

Pleasant Surprise: The biggest surprise on the Patriots offense was receiver Phillip Dorsett. He tied for the team lead with seven receptions, gaining 66 yards, and scoring his first touchdown with the Patriots. His routes were crisp and he caught every ball thrown his way.

Steady Eddie: Quarterback Tom Brady went a ho-hum 26 of 39 (67%), for 277 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 (tipped-ball) interception. His QB rating of 102.2 would have been exactly in the middle of last year's regular-season games (8 better, 8 worse), and he was solid if not spectacular.

Disappointment: I'll probably be the only one who says it, but it's tight end Rob Gronkowski. His numbers were great (7 catches, 123 yards, 1 touchdown). But his ball security on the Pats first drive of the second half was terrible, leading to an easy punch-out and fumble recovery by the Texans.

And to add injury to insult, running back Jeremy Hill was hurt (it looked bad) while trying to make the tackle after the fumble. The Patriots could have essentially ended the game if they scored on that drive. Instead, it was nip and tuck until the end; thanks in no small part to Gronk's mistake. Like I said earlier, looked a bit like the preseason out there.

Overall: The running game gained a decent 3.9 yards per carry, and ironically, most of the pressure on Brady came late in the second half when you'd think New England would run the ball to keep the clock moving. Those two things tell me the Pats offensive line is still a work-in-progress. Decent for the moment, but not great yet.

The running backs played well, led by Rex Burkhead (18 carries for 64 yards). And the coaches tried to take advantage of Cordarrelle Patterson's speed by running him on end-arounds and jet-sweeps. It worked pretty well; but it'll be more impressive when he catches a back-shoulder throw from Brady.

Defense

Pleasant Surprise: Cornerback Stephon Gilmore didn't disappoint, knocking down two passes and snagging an interception. But the surprising thing was he lead the team with eight tackles. He only made that many tackles in one game last year (Pittsburgh), and he averaged less than half that many per game (3.8) for the 2017 season. Nice to see him comfortable enough with the defense to help make tackles on outside runs.

Steady Eddie: Trey Flowers had another workpail day on the defensive line, 1.5 sacks (for 10.5 yards), 1 tackle for a loss, and three QB hits. Flowers isn't totally alone on the D-line, like he was last year, but he's still the only obvious difference-maker in that group. It appears Deatrich Wise might become a nice compliment to Flowers; but for now, Flowers is their most consistent performer along the front four.

Disappointment: Sharing this "honor" are linebacker Elandon Roberts and corner Eric Rowe. Roberts for not stepping up his game to match rookie Ja'Whaun Bentley. And Rowe for missing multiple assignments and not working hard enough to get through blocks and keep backs from running down the sideline.

Overall: The defense played well, forcing two turnovers from Texans QB Deshaun Watson. They were more aggressive, and the front seven appears to be the strength of the team (along with Gilmore at corner). They probably depended on too many dropped passes, but as the season goes along, they should become better.

Special Teams

Pleasant Surprise: Punter Ryan Allen's gorgeous punt in the fourth quarter pinned the Texans back at their one yard-line. He hasn't had many of those over the years, mostly aiming for inside the 10 yard line. Downing it was helpful, but the kudos go to Allen because gunner Jonathan Jones was uncovered by Houston so it was an easy jaunt down the sideline to grab the ball.

Steady Eddie: Special teams captain Matthew Slater was first to the returner at least twice and redirected two other return plays to other Patriots who made tackles. There's a reason he has made the Pro Bowl for special teams play a record seven times.

Disappointment: Return specialist Riley McCarron has to know that his only job with a fourth-quarter lead is to field the punt cleanly. He blew it, fumbling to give Houston a short field and an easy touchdown. That made the game much closer than it should have been.

Situationally, that play is even worse than Gronkowski's fumble. As Pete Carroll used to say: "Gotta clean it up!" Now take a lap, son...

Overall: Special teams were oddly ineffective in this game. The Patriots were really affected by the new kickoff rule, which states players other than the kicker can't line up more than one-yard off the line of scrimmage. This gives them less of a running start on those plays, and it showed. Houston's average starting position after receiving kickoffs was the 31 yard-line. Last season, Patriots opponents' average start was their own 19.

Might be time to put speedier players on the kickoff coverage squad. Or here's a thought; have Stephen Gostkowski boot it through the end zone, like the Texans did the entire game. That gives your opponent the ball at the 25 yard-line, instead of the 31. Just a suggestion.

So where does this leave us? Still learning on the job, I suspect. The offense looked good given that Julian Edelman won't play until week 4. The defense appears to be unmolded clay at this point, working to learn and communicate better and improve under new coordinator Brian Flores. Still, 1-0 is better than 0-1, so it's fine for now.

Biggest on-going issue: The second cornerback. I still don't see Eric Rowe improving enough to solidify that position, and unless there is a trade in the offing, reinforcements are not on the way.

Non-Brady MVP: Gilmore, locking down one side against the passing attack while the other side works to round into shape.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: At 7 hours 10 minutes, the Dolphins/Titans game was the longest in the NFL since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. (Note: the weather delays helped with that.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "A nice win to start the season, especially when your main AFC rivals, the Steelers, couldn't even beat the Browns. 2018 is off to a great start!"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-0!

Pats Ice The Titans, 35-14

The Patriots did what they were supposed to do, crushing the Tennessee Titans 35-14 to advance to the AFC Championship Game next Sunday (3:05pm EST). This is more than we can say for the "Second Round Steelers," who failed to hold up their end of the bargain. So it'll be the Jacksonville Jaguars at Gillette with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

As for Saturday night's game, the Titans were completely overmatched. And it started with the opening coin-flip. The Patriots won the toss, but instead doing the usual thing and deferring to the second half, they took the ball. That meant the Titans chose the goal to defend, and they put the Patriots into the wind in the first quarter.

What this did was allow the Patriots to control the game by matching their style to the wind direction. In the first quarter, they only took about 6:00 off the clock, but they pinned the Titans back inside their own ten yard line for both of their "with the wind" possessions. So even though Tennessee scored first, they used the entire quarter to get one touchdown.

When the Pats got the wind in the second quarter, they went touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, while Tenn. went punt, punt, failed fourth-down conversion. This basically ended the game. However, even if it hadn't, the Titans got the ball first in the second half, but the Pats forced them to go into the wind, throwing the ball to catch up.

This was a master-course in how to manage game situations by Belichick. When the team had the wind, they went up-tempo and threw a lot. Against the wind, they kept the ball on the ground or threw short passes, and they used the entire play clock. Amazing strategy against a weak-armed quarterback. By the time the Titans got the wind in the fourth quarter, they were down 35-7. Game. Set. Match.

Speaking of quarterbacks, the Patriots guy played pretty well. Tom Brady completed 66% of his passes, including some pinpoint strikes in the red zone and a ridiculous cross-body, cross-field throw to Danny Amendola that fell right into his breadbasket. Brady controlled the line of scrimmage, audibiling to the perfect play time and again, and never once putting the ball in harm's way.

Amendola led the receivers in catches (11) and yards (112). He also did a fantastic job receiving punts on a very windy night, never bobbling a single one. The passing attack also featured running backs Dion Lewis and James White, with 9 catches for 79 yards, and 4 for 29 yards respectively. You had to know that was coming, as Tennessee was the worst team in the league versus pass-catching running backs.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski had 6 grabs for 81 yards, with a couple where he got position and Brady through it where the DB couldn't get to it. Gronk also did a nice job blocking for running plays, and helped protect the passer with some well-timed chips of outside rushers.

The biggest surprise of the game was the lack of pressure on Brady. The offensive line was outstanding, although aided and abetted by a defensive scheme that mostly sent three rushers. Brady was hit four times and sacked not once. And he had upwards of six or seven seconds on a few plays. Pair that with 4.3ypc by the running backs, and it was one of the best games this year for the O-line.

The running backs did well in the passing game, and showed explosion when needed in the running game. White scored two touchdowns (one running, one receiving), and Brandon Bolden had what must have been the easiest touchdown of his career to ice the game. (He ran untouched into the end zone, right up the middle of the defense.)

The second-biggest surprise of the game was the pressure applied by the Patriots defensive line. Here are the sack totals from that group:
Trey Flowers: 1 for 7 yards
Deatrich Wise: 2 for 12 yards
Geneo Grissom: 2 for 12 yards
Adam Butler: 1 for 5 yards
Ricky Jean Francois: 1 for 8 yards

Grissom was the emotional spark, firing up the team after some near-miss sacks (before he got two). And Butler should get credit for two of the other sacks, as he flushed Marcus Mariotta out of the pocket so others could get the on the stat sheet. It was a shockingly dominant performance; the unit even added 9 of the 10 QB hits!

It was nice to get linebacker Kyle Van Noy back. They didn't need him much to cover the running backs (they aren't much of a pass receiving threat), but it will help for him to have reps before facing a tougher Jacksonville squad this Sunday.

In the defensive backfield, the safeties worked to keep things in front of them, but there were some communication breakdowns. Corner Stephon Gilmore had the only two passes defended in the game, and it was unsettling to see some of the Titans wideouts running free. Fortunately they had enough drops to make up for it.

Punter Ryan Allen led the special teams units. Not only did he pin back the Titans early, but he handled at least one bad snap on a field goal/extra point attempt. Stephen Gostkowski continued his stellar use of the short-but-high kickoff to keep teams inside their own 20 yard line.

However, there were at least three bad long-snaps from Joe Cardona. Allen handled all three, two of which were on punts, and it might have owed to the frigid conditions. It was not a problem Saturday, but something to keep an eye on moving forward.

The coaching was a complete mismatch. The Patriots were cool and calm and stayed within their game plan. The Titans looked lost, called timeouts when they should have held onto them, and had 10 penalties for 62 yards.

A sequence at the end of the first half was particularly telling. They gained 9 yards to give themselves a fourth-and-1 (really a half-yard) near midfield. Coach (now former coach) Mike Mularkey decided, correctly, to go for it. But he burned his last timeout before the play... however, if the Titans ran for the first down, he would have needed that timeout to stop the clock again or lose any realistic chance to score.

And then after the timeout, they promptly ran a wide toss to the left... which of course lost five yards and gave the ball back to the Pats. He was clearly overmatched, and Tennessee fired him today as a result. (And they have their eye on Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, by the way.)

So where does that leave us? Another AFC Championship Game sounds just about right. It's their seventh in a row and twelfth of the Brady/Belichick era. Unfortunately for us, it'll be warm -- Florida teams don't do well in January when the thermometer dips into the teens.

Biggest on-going issue It is no longer the linebackers, simply because the teams that could have exploited their weakness in pass coverage all lost this weekend (Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Atlanta).

It is actually team focus at this point. The Patriots are excellent at ignoring the noise. But with both coordinators likely gone, maybe the heir apparent DC gone (linebackers coach Brian Flores), and with all the crap about Brady, Belichick, Kraft, and the TB12 stuff, I'm actually worried about focus.

I do think the release of a Patriots hit-piece the morning of the Super Bowl in 2008 affected their focus. And they lost that game by three points, so it could have cost them another title and a perfect season.

We all expect them to keep their focus, and they probably will. But on the field, there just isn't much to worry about at this point. All the high-flying offenses are gone, and the Patriots are clearly the best team remaining in the field.

Non-Brady MVP: Amendola, a great game!

Statistical Oddity: The Patriots are going to their seventh straight AFC Championship Game. No other team in the NFL has a current streak of at least seven straight winning seasons. Think about that for a second...

Water-cooler Wisdom: "At least the Titans fired their coach for malpractice... what's the Steelers' excuse?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 14-3 & 1-0!

Patriots Handle Titans, 33-16

The Patriots took care of business yesterday at Gillette Stadium, posting a 33-16 victory over Tennessee. The win set them up for a first-round bye, which they clinched later in the day when Denver lost to Pittsburgh. Their second trip to New York is next week, this time to play the Jets, and with an outside chance to knock them out of the playoffs.

This game wasn't really as close as the final score indicated. The first half score was 24-3, and the Pats coasted from there. The Titans turned it over, they failed on third downs (1 of 8 in the first half), and their only scoring drive before intermission was 4 plays, -5 yards, and a field goal.

The one concern was the offense stagnated without receiver Danny Amendola in the second half. Both Amendola and tight end Rob Gronkowski played, Amendola missed the second half with a knee injury. And the comparison looks pretty ugly.

First half:
4-7 (57%) on third-down conversions
10 carries for 54 yards (5.4 ypc)
14 of 19 (73.6%) passing for 139 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 130.6 rating

Second half:
3-9 (33%) on third down-conversions
16 carries for 39 yards (2.4 ypc)
9 of 16 (56.3%) passing for 126 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 81.7 rating

The drop-off indicates that the Patriots cannot go far in the playoffs if they have only one of their receiving stars. That means they need to have receiver Julian Edelman, Gronkowski, and Amendola healthy for a deep playoff run. They can't depend on just two of them; if one gets injured, the offense grinds to a halt.

The Titans have fallen behind by a total of 51-3 in the first halves of their last two games. And the Patriots defense had plenty to do with it yesterday. The defense scored a touchdown on a Chandler Jones strip-sack and Akiem Hicks pounced on it for a touchdown. Hicks also stuffed a running play and had a sack of his own -- all in the first quarter! And Jones had another sack, his two totaling 28 yards lost.

The rest of the defensive line did a great job stopping the run, especially outside runs. The Titans averaged 94 yards a game before yesterday, but they had just 59 against the Patriots. Jabaal Sheard had a sack and continued to disrupt the offense with quick moves inside and out to break down running plays.

Linebacker Jamie Collins led the team with eight tackles, had a sack, a tackle for a loss, a QB hit, a pass defended, and an interception. And even with all that, he is a step slow on some outside runs and blitzes, so when he returns to full-speed, it'll be a sight to see. Jerod Mayo improved again this week, making six tackles in all. But unfortunately, Dont'a Hightower left the game with a knee injury.

Linebacker is about the same as receiver for the Pats. If they go into the playoffs with just two of those three healthy, they could be in trouble if one gets injured during the playoffs. They really need all of them healthy, because they can't afford to have just one on the field.

The secondary played passably well. Interestingly teams now seem to shy away from throwing at Malcolm Butler, and with good reason. He had an INT, a pass defended, and five tackles yesterday. He also had another interception called back on a penalty on the other side of the field. Logan Ryan struggled in the game, as did newcomer Leonard Johnson.

Safety Patrick Chung had a great game, doing a fine job in run support and mostly shutting down the Titans' best tight end, Delanie Walker. Walker had just two catches, although both went for touchdowns, so it wasn't a total shut down. However, Chung was injured late in the game, and his usual running mate, Devin McCourty missed the game with injury, too. Tavon Wilson did a good job in place of McCourty, but the injuries are starting to pile up at this position.

The offense was very disjointed in the first half, not having much possession time, and benefitting from short fields on all three second-quarter drives. Quarterback Tom Brady was in total control, and didn't face much pressure compared to recent weeks. After three consecutive weeks with double-digit QB hits, the Titans hit Brady just four times, and sacked him twice.

The numbers were ho-hum by Brady's standards, but he made excellent decisions and never put the ball in danger of being picked off. Brady went 23 of 35, 267 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a QB rating got 107.7. Like I said, ho-hum -- just another 105+ QB rating game. Next!

The receivers caught just about everything thrown their way. Brandon LaFell caught four passes for 88 yards, including a ton of yard after the catch. He and Amendola also had excellent blocks on James White's 30-yard touchdown catch-and-run. Excepting Gronkowski, the receivers caught 18 of 23 passes thrown their way.

Gronkowski did his usual damage: five catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. But he was targeted 11 times, so the completion percentage on throws to him wasn't great. This owes mostly to double-coverage he faces a lot, although in those circumstances, Brady should look elsewhere unless Gronkowski is actually open.

Running back Brandon Bolden started out as the workhorse. But halfway through the game, the Pats switched it up by putting in rookie Joseph Iosefa (#47 on your scoresheet). Between them, they had 24 carries for 87 yards; a very respectable total. The team had trouble running in the second half, but it was good to see someone come in for the injured LeGarrette Blount and play well enough to get more starting time.

The offensive line is still a bit messy. Shaq Mason had a great block on the first Patriots offensive play of the game and then a holding penalty on the second play. The Titans didn't blitz much, and they didn't play many up-front games, so it wasn't much of a test from that perspective. We will have a much better idea of where the O-line is after next week. The Jets blitz a ton, and if the Pats line can handle it, they'll be in good shape entering the playoffs.

Special teams continues to have trouble, and that is the second biggest worry heading into the post-season (aside from health). Kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a 48-yard field goal, and Danny Amendola fumbled a punt. The new special teams coach needs to get these guys to focus on their job, or he might be looking for another job himself next season.

So where does that leave us? 12-2 and with a guaranteed first-round bye -- that sounds pretty nice for now. The Pats finish with two on the road, and if they can win next week, they'll probably sit a bunch of players for the finale against the Bills (to avoid injury against old friend Rex Ryan).

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Tom Brady has a career passer rating of over 100 against all four AFC South teams:

• 101.0 against Houston
• 108.5 against Jacksonville
• 102.3 against Indianapolis
• 109.4 against Tennessee

(Trivia question: Brady's highest career QB rating against one opponent is 115.7; name the team. Answer below.)

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: James White's seven catches were outlets that helped keep Brady clean, and he turned one of those dump-offs into a scintillating 30-yard touchdown.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The only AFC team that scares me is the Jets, so the Pats should eliminate them from the playoffs next week."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-2

PPS. Trivia Answer: 
V
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Brady's 115.7 rating is against the Atlanta Falcons. Next highest: 113.4 against Pittsburgh.

Patriots Smother Texans, 27-6

The Patriots defense pitched a second-half shutout, and the team won convincingly, 27-6 at Houston. The victory puts them in the playoffs for the seventh year in a row, and they are also atop the AFC alone, as the Broncos and Bengals both lost. The Tennessee Titans come to Foxboro next week, and if history is any basis, Marcus Mariotta's first game against the Patriots won't go his way.

(Note: this loss puts the Texans at 6-7, but somehow they are still tied for the division lead. Trivia Question: name the NFL team with the worst record that is still mathematically alive for the playoffs. Answer below.)

As for the game, the New England defense was suffocating all game long. The Texans' tenth-longest play of the entire game went for just six yards. And in fact, they had only five plays that went for 10+ yards. They ended up with only 189 yards of total offense, and almost half of it (89 yards) came on two pass plays. And they went just 3-16 (18.75%) on third- and fourth-down attempts.

The defensive line did a great job with gap responsibilities and setting the edge to stop the run. Houston had a 37-yard run, and 50 yards on 21 other carries, thanks to the likes of Malcom Brown and Aikeem Nicks inside, and Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard outside. Sheard's stat line is impressive: five tackles, two sacks (for 34 yards in losses), three QB hits, and forced fumbles on both sacks! And Nicks had two sacks of his own, to go along with six tackles. Ninkovich had one sack and some big plays against the run, although he did lose contain on at least one big run.

Two linebackers led the team in tackles: Jamie Collins (9), and Jerod Mayo (8). Both players are rounding into form nicely after injuries, Collins' earlier this year and Mayo's from last year. Mayo showed great burst at the line and his instincts on play-reads are as honed as ever. He was a step slow in the Denver game, but not last night. And Collins does so many things so well he can make opponents change offensive schemes.

If Collins' can return to dominance, he's as big an X-factor on defense as Rob Gronkowski is on offense. He can rush the passer, stuff the run, knife in to make tackles in the backfield, cover backs or tight ends, reads screen passes with the best of them, and can line up anywhere on the field. Put him next to Jerod Mayo and Dont'a Hightower (still out with a knee injury), and the linebacking corps is as potent as any in the league.

None of the front-seven would have done as well without great play from the secondary.  Corner Malcolm Butler neutralized Houston's second-best receiver, and Logan Ryan played an excellent game against their #1 guy, albiet with help of the top. But the surprise of the week was newcomer Leonard Johnson, who knocked away two passes on critical plays. He's already a big upgrade from other third corners the Pats have played, so here's hoping it isn't just a one-game thing with him.

The safeties let up two long passes, and unfortunately, Devin McCourty left the game late with an injury. But Patrick Chung held up his end of the bargain, as always. Eight tackles (including one for a loss), and he knocked away a long pass up the seam that could have gotten the Texans close in the third quarter.

Quarterback Tom Brady was only hit three times and sacked three others, a stark contrast to the 36 QB hits and eight sacks the previous three games. And his numbers reflected it: 22 of 30 (73%), 226 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 INTs, and a 116.8 QB rating. He had good pocket presence, never panicked in the face of "phantom pressure," and never once putting the ball anywhere near an interception.

Brady was obviously helped by his offensive line, at least some. Each player took his turn having at least one bad play, but the big worry was center Bryan Stork, who was either injured or benched late in the game. It wouldn't surprise me if he was benched, he'd played the worst of any of the linemen to that point. But in either case, switching centers and shuffling the offensive line yet again is bad at this point in the season. After all, his replacement, David Andrews, was benched against Denver for poor play.

The number of receivers who catch passes is dropping game by game. Only five players caught Brady passes this week, led by Danny Amendola's six catches for 46 yards. However, Gronkowski did more damage: four catches for 87 yards and a touchdown. And sneaking into the conversation for third receiver is Keshawn Martin, with three grabs for 23 yards. Not that he'll be returning punts any time soon (more on that in a bit).

The running backs helped control the game, totaling 116 yards on 31 attempts.  LeGarrette Blount (10 carries for 53 yards) did most of the damage early, but when he went down with an injury, Brandon Bolden stepped in with 16 carries and 51 yards of his own. James White didn't run much, but his only carry was the touchdown that sealed the game.

One other note on the offense. The balance in this game (31 rushes, 33 pass plays [including sacks]) is what I believe they were striving for in the Eagles game. Unfortunately they got away from it too early in the second half of that game, but expect a more balanced offense until they get receiver Julian Edelman back. 

Which brings us to special teams, where they had a blunder for the third straight week.  This time is was Martin, who fumbled a punt in the third quarter, giving Houston excellent field position. Fortunately the dominant defense bailed him out without giving up a point. But his improved play on offense was overshadowed by this mistake. Also, before that fumble, he'd averaged 11.5 yards on four returns. (BTW, does anyone else miss special teams coach Scott O'Brien like I do?)

Kicker Stephen Gostkowski was money on two kicks again this week (ho hum), and punter Ryan Allen did a great job pinning the Texans back drive after drive. So it wasn't all bad.

A special shoutout to the coaching staff. They came up with a great plan to neutralize Houston defensive end J. J. Watt, and did an exceptional job in planning how to stop the Texans' offense.

So where does that leave us? 11-2 ain't half bad, especially when it's good enough for the #1 seed in your conference. A win over the Titans this Sunday would nearly guarantee a first-round bye (given that Cincinnati and Denver play each other). Also of note: if the Giants beat the Dolphins on Monday night, the Patriots are division champs again.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Including last night's game, McCourty has more one-tackle games this year (3) than he had in his entire career prior to this season (2). (Note: he has never had a zero-tackle game in his NFL career.)

Non-Brady MVP of the Game: Jabaal Sheard took advantage of some poor blocking schemes and dominated a 15-minute stretch of the game that put it out of reach.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "If the Pats get Hightower and Edelman back for the playoffs, they should be favored to win it all again."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 11-2!

PPS. Trivia Answer:  The 4-9 Dallas Cowboys are still alive for a possible playoff berth.

Patriots Improved at Tight End

According to ESPN.com (link), the Patriots signed former Atlanta and Tennessee tight end, Alge Crumpler.  And while the ESPN story makes it sound like a lateral move from last year (he had similar stats to Benjamin Watson), there are three reasons to think that Crumpler is a significant improvement for 2010.

First off, Crumpler has much better skills than Watson ever will.  There's no comparison between their ball skills; Crumpler always make the catch, Watson is a crap-shoot on every throw.  And you can tell just by watching him that Alge knows how to get open in the middle of the field and, more importantly, in the end zone.  The last Patriots tight end to use his size effectively to create separation in the passing game was Ben Coates, and that was 10 years ago.  Crumpler's no Coates, but Alge plays off defensive contact and leverages his size to make space in tight quarters between linebackers and in the end zone.

Secondly, it's important to consider that Crumpler had similar numbers to Watson the last few years, but with the likes of Vince Young, Michael Vick, and Joey Harrington (blech!) throwing to him.  Think what he might do if he gets in sync with Hall of Famer to be Tom Brady, and with Randy Moss to stretch the field, too.  If you recall, there was a guy named Wes Welker who practically doubled his production just by coming to the Patriots.  Not saying that Crumpler is about to lead the NFL in receiving like Welker.  But if he connects well with Brady, his talent could make him vastly more productive than any Patriots tight end since the aforementioned Ben Coates.

And finally, Crumpler stays on the field; Watson unfortunately did not.  Watson made it through only one full season in his career, and he started a mere 24 games the last three years.  Crumpler has six 16-game slates on his resume, and the number of starts by season over his career is vastly better than Watson.  To make the point directly, here is a comparison of Crumpler and Watson in percentage of career games played and started:

Games played:

Crumpler 97% (139 of 144)

Watson 73% (71 of 96)

Games started:

Crumpler 87% (122 of 144)

Watson 49% (47 of 96)

So Crumpler has better ball skills and get-open-ability, will probably increase his production with Tom Brady throwing to him, and can be counted on to play most every game every season.  And when you consider that the loss of Wes Welker puts more pressure on Patriots tight ends for production, the signing of Alge Crumpler is seems like a win-win-win.

All in all, a great move by the Patriots.  Here's hoping Crumpler works well without a position coach :)

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  0-0!