Patriots Demolish Chargers 45-0

The Patriots destroyed the LA Chargers yesterday 45-0, their biggest road win since 2007. (Trivia question: Can you name the team they beat and/or the score of the game? Answer below.) The win brings them to 6-6, still 2.5 games back of the division leading Bills (who play tomorrow night) and 2 games out of the playoffs. Next up is the other Los Angeles team, the Rams, on a short week this Thursday.

This game was a clinic of complimentary football. Special teams made four huge plays, scoring twice, the offense used an innovative running game to keep the ball in their hands, and the defense smothered rookie Justin Herbert, intercepting him twice -- his first NFL two-INT game. And all along the coaching was ahead of the Chargers' staff, pouncing on mistakes and letting LA shoot itself in the foot time after time after time.

There isn't as much to pore over in a win this lopsided. But here are five quick observations:

1. Redemption For McDaniels

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has taken some heat this year, and rightfully so. But his game plan was outstanding on Sunday. He used a mix of slant-runs, quick-hit runs, QB option plays, and even some Wildcat (with quarterback Cam Newton in motion) to confuse and wear out the Chargers defense. However, most important was that those plays were productive.

The first drive was over 7:00 long and ended with points. And no matter how many players LA committed to stop the run, they couldn't do it effectively enough to force the Pats to abandon their game plan. 43 carries for 165 yards and 2 TDs on the ground speaks for itself.

Nicely done, Josh.

2. Spectacular Special Teams

Gunner Olszewski returned a punt 70 yards for a touchdown and another one 61 yards (which led to a field goal). Cody Davis blocked a field goal and Devin McCourty returned it 44 yards for a touchdown. Punter Jake Bailey kicked four times, three of which were downed inside the 20 yard-line. Justin Bethel had three tackles on special teams and saved a punt from the end zone (which was downed at the 5 yard-line by Davis).

Additionally, the kicking units drew penalties against the Chargers, including a 12-man penalty on a quick-snap that got the Pats a first down. This wasn't by accident; LA is known to have bad special teams. No doubt the Patriots spent extra time on them this week, knowing they could spell the difference in the game.

They did.

3. Bill Belichick Versus Young QBs

Most young quarterbacks are confused the first time they play a Belichick-led defense. I haven't updated this stat in a while, but he has something like 90% wins against quarterbacks in their 8th - 15th starts in the NFL, which is right where the Chargers' Justin Herbert was. It also explains how the Patriots held back Kyler Murray and Arizona last week -- he was making his 27th NFL start and facing a BB defense for the first time.

This won't help much this Thursday; Jared Goff is in his fifth season and has played the Patriots before.

All of which is to say please don't overreact to the last two weeks. Those wins were predictable; the real season begins now!

4. Youth Being Served

Rookies making an impact:

• Linebacker Josh Uche has a motor that won't stop and hits hard
• Safety Kyle Dugger has 29 tackles on the year and is seeing increased playing time
• Tackle Mike Onwenu is solidly a starter and well-rated by Pro Football Focus

Second-year players making an impact:

• Running back Damien Harris is the team's leading rusher with 641 yards on 126 carries (5.1ypc) and 2 touchdowns
• Receiver Jakobi Meyers leads the team with 38 catches and is a solid route-runner and blocker downfield
• Defensive End Chase Winovich gets better every week and made two impact plays yesterday
• Receiver/returner Olszewski not only had three great returns in the last two games, he had a long touchdown catch-and-run
• Fullback Jakob Johnson's blocking is excellent and he is now working into the occasional short-passing game
• Linebacker Terez Hall is helping shore up the thin linebacking corps

For a team with so many holes, they are filling many of them with younger players this year. If 2020 is a bridge year, then the future across that bridge looks bright -- if they can get the QB situation settled.

5. Blueprint For The Playoffs?!?!

I know, Jim Mora would have torn my head off for saying the P-word. But if the Pats do somehow make the playoffs, they will likely face a gauntlet of road games against teams like Kansas City and/or Pittsburgh.

The advantage they have is that crowd noise won't be as big a factor with smaller crowds (or no crowds) at stadiums because of COVID-19. Also, teams that play sound fundamentals, are good on defense, and can get a few plays on special teams -- those teams often do well on the road, even in the playoffs.

Earlier this year the Patriots likely would have beaten Kansas City in KC if their quarterback hadn't contracted the coronavirus. And the Steelers in Pittsburgh has never scared the Patriots; they've won two Super Bowls after beating the Steelers on the road in the playoffs.

They'll likely need more from the passing game if they expect to even make the playoffs. And they have the next six games to figure that out. One note of optimism; supposedly Julian Edelman could be back in a week or two, which could only help the offense.

Where does that leave us? The needle is pointing up at the right time. Newton has shown a good rapport with both Damiere Byrd and Meyers, as well as James White out of the backfield. McDaniels' challenge now is figuring out how to incorporate more passing without risking the run game or a loss (the Patriots can't afford one).

Biggest on-going concern: Lack of explosive plays on offense. The creative game plan from Sunday shows they can win without chunk plays in the passing game. But as they head down the stretch their margin for error is as small as their biggest plays.

It's great to get huge returns or blocked kicks for touchdowns. That doesn't mean the Patriots want to count on that every week.

Non-QB MVP: the toughest call of the year, but the award goes to special teams ace Justin Bethel, who was integral to the blocked field goal, had big blocks on both of Olszewski's long returns, had three special teams tackles, and made a play to down a punt inside the five yard-line.

Could have been a lot of people (Olszewski himself, for example), but Bethel gets the nod.

Statistical oddity: I've never seen a team be so horrific on fourth down in my life. Here is the astonishing futility of LA on fourth downs:

• Missed field goal
• Punt returned for touchdown
• False start penalty from punt formation
• Blocked field goal returned for touchdown
• Interception
• 61-yard punt return
• Sacked for 9 yards
• Incomplete pass
• Incomplete pass

Add in that they had 12 men on the field on a Patriots fourth-down punt, which gave the Pats a first down, and their failures on fourth down become legendary. Just awful!

Water-cooler wisdom: "Belichick is so awful at talent evaluation that he has nine major contributors from the last two drafts."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-6!

PPS. Trivia Answer: the Patriots beat the Bills 56-10 in November of 2007, a 46-point win that eclipses the 45-pointer from yesterday.

Patriots Squeeze Past Cardinals 20-17

The Patriots held on for a 20-17 victory over the Arizona Cardinals at Gillette Stadium. The win put them at 5-6, still a full three-games behind the victorious Bills. Next up is a multi-day trip to Los Angeles, to take on the Chargers this weekend and the Rams the following Thursday night.

New England dominated special teams and played excellent situational defense. Most years that would have been enough for a blowout win. But with the sputtering offense, the Pats had to hold on in a game they normally would have dominated. It was a good win, but doesn't really give one a lot of hope for the season.

Special teams had four important plays:

1. Punter Jake Bailey booted a perfect punt that landed at the one yard-line and was downed at the three.
2. Donte Moncrief returned a kickoff 53 yards to setup a short field on the Patriots first touchdown.
3. Gunner Olszewski returned a punt 58 yards to setup the Patriots game-tying field goal in the third quarter. (Note: it should have been a touchdown return, but for a bogus penalty call.)
4. Nick Folk kicked a 50-yard field goal to win the game as time expired.

In addition, gunner Justin Bethel stopped a guy cold on a punt that outkicked its coverage, and Bailey's kickoffs consistently came down at the one-yard line, forcing AZ to return the ball. (Not that I love that strategy, but apparently the Patriots coaches do -- so, well-executed, young man!)

Conversely, Arizona didn't get much out of their special teams. In fact, their kicker missed a potential game-winning field goal with 1:47 left in the game. This phase of the game was a complete mismatch from start to finish.

On defense, the Patriots played mostly five-man fronts to keep AZ quarterback Kyler Murray in the pocket. The plan wasn't without its bad moments, but they bottled up Murray for most of the game, hitting him four times, sacking him twice, and allowing him just 31 yards on the ground.

The team gave up yards, especially on intermediate passes against the linebackers. But as has been the case most of the year, they played their best when their opponents moved inside the 20 yard line. Their goal-line stand to end the half was one of the most impressive defensive sequences I've seen all year.

Lineman Adam Butler had a great game: 5 tackles, 1 sack (9 yards), 3 QB hits, and a pass deflected at the line. And the linebackers actually did their job, at least against the run. Ja'Whaun Bentley led the team with 13 tackles, and his running make Terez Hall had seven of his own.

The problem in this game, and for most of the year, is that the Patriots offense simply can't put together sustained drives. On Sunday, their scoring drives covered 41, 35, 31, and 18 total yards. Without a short field, they couldn't string first downs together to maintain possession and make progress down the field.  They had two eight-play drives against Arizona: one for 20 yards and one for 35 yards. That doesn't cut it in the NFL.

Quarterback Cam Newton completed just nine passes, was sacked three times, and threw two interceptions. His QB rating of 23.3 would usually earn one a trip to the bench. But apparently the Patriots believe even less in Jarrett Stidham and/or Brian Hoyer, otherwise Cam would be riding the pine already.

Newton did run the ball more effectively: 9 rushes for 46 yards (5.1 ypc). But overall the running game was mostly contained, notching just 110 total yards, including Newton's total. They benched their left tackle in favor of a guy off the scrap heap, and Newton wasn't exactly protected like the Crown Jewels either.

The receivers? Gimme a break! The only two receivers who caught anything were Jakobi Meyers (5 catches for 52 yards) and Damiere Byrd (3 for 33). N'Keal Harry looks like as big a bust as any first-round pick Belichick has made. And maybe it's time to play the young tight ends; Ryan Izzo certainly isn't giving you anything.

The only big coaching whiff is offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' inability to design an offense that works. IMO he has to commit to the run and stick with it. Once teams cheat up to stop the run, call play-action passes and hit Meyers or Byrd on mid-level outs or crosses.

TB12 isn't walking through that door, and neither is Gronk or Randy Moss. McDaniels has to find a way to put together sustained drives or the team is going absolutely nowhere.

One other coaching quibble; can we please clean up the pre-snap and mental-error penalties. They had a false-start in quiet stadium conditions, too many men on the field on defense, and defensive penalties gave the Cardinals first-downs on two third-downs and a fourth-down.

Where does that leave us? 5-6 and headed in the right direction, at least for this week. The twin-LA games could go either way, but if the Pats expect to make the post-season, they better shoot for 2-0 on the west coast.

Biggest on-going issue: Lack of consistency on offense. You don't have to look that far back to see how it's done; they had touchdown drives of 82- and 85-yards against Houston last week and three touchdown drives of 75-yards against Baltimore the week before.

Non-QB MVP: Adam Butler, with the aforementioned stat line.

Statistical oddity: Matt Cassel is the last New England quarterback to play a full game and win with fewer yards than Newton's 84 yards against the Cardinals. Naturally Cassel beat the Buffalo Bills (final score was 13-0).

BTW, Brady did it once in his career; against the Dolphins in 2004.

Water-cooler wisdom: "I guess this is why other fans hated the Brady-led Patriots so much, their offenses probably looked like ours does now."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS: 5-6!

Titans Blow Out Patriots, 34-10

The Tennessee Titans were most inhospitable hosts yesterday, dominating from the opening kickoff and cruising to a 34-10 win over the Patriots. Happily the Dolphins lost, too, so New England remains up by two games in the AFC East. Unhappily, Kansas City won, giving them a two-game cushion in the race for playoff byes (and the LA Chargers currently have a half-game lead in that race).

This game was ugly from the beginning. The Titans returned the opening kickoff 58 yards to start in New England territory, one of three drives that started on the Patriots side of the field -- all in the first half. Tennessee scored 24 points in the first half, while the Pats scored on two of their first three drives and then went bagel over their last nine possessions.

It's pretty apparent that Mike Vrabel was the real architect of the Houston Texans defense that gave the Patriots fits in last year's playoffs. Because Vrabel left Houston for Tennessee, and the Patriots easily beat the Texans but struggled mightily against the Titans.

The three best Patriots on the field were not on the team anymore: Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler from last year, and Logan Ryan who signed with the Titans in 2017. The current Patriots couldn't do much right except for punting the ball, where Ryan Allen got more practice this week (6 kicks) than in any game since opening day.

The team just stunk up the joint. Lots of bad performances on both sides of the ball, poor coverage on defense, poor execution on offense, reverting to early-season form by going 3-of-15 on third-down conversions, and coaching that seemed ill-prepared to adjust. Even reliable corner Stephon Gilmore notched his worst game of 2018.

Tom Brady was under constant pressure, and it didn't help that he missed wide open receivers to keep feeding the ball to Josh Gordon. Injuries along the O-line led to very few rushing yards, botched screen passes, and 3 sacks & 6 QB hits of Brady. Only Julian Edelman played well, and he took a pounding after each of his nine receptions.

I can't go into the gory details because there were just too many screw-ups. Can we just chalk this up to the team letting down after a big win over Green Bay and thinking about their upcoming Bye week?

So where does that leave us? Mostly hoping that when Gronkowski returns from injury the offense will be better. (It should be.) There was nothing to hang their hats on yesterday; Tennessee outschemed them, outsmarted them, and outplayed them. The Bye week couldn't be coming at a more important point.

Biggest ongoing concern: The offensive play on the road has been poor. The offense scored only 10 points in Detroit, 24 in Chicago, 18 in Buffalo, and just 10 yesterday. And if not for two special teams TDs in Chicago, they'd be 1-4 on the road and fighting to stay atop their division.

Non-Brady MVP: Edelman was really the only standout, 9 receptions for 104 yards and a completed pass for the second straight week.

Statistical Oddity: James Develin ran the ball for the first time since October 12, 2014. And he made the most of it, scoring the team's only touchdown.

Water-cooler Wisdom: "Bye week seemed to start a day early for the Pats."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 7-3!

Patriots Keep Rolling With 21-13 Win Over Chargers

Three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Brady beats Rivers. The Pats topped the Chargers 21-13 yesterday, winning their fourth straight game to land atop the AFC East at the halfway mark yet again. And in this game, Tom Brady moved to 7-0 all-time against Philip Rivers, whose only win over the Pats is against Matt Cassel. Next up is the bye week, so smoke 'em if you got 'em.

This game looked worrisome at times, but in the end, the Chargers shot themselves in the foot more often than the Patriots did. Los Angeles missed a field goal, gave up a horrible safety on a botched punt return, wiped out their own touchdown on a penalty, didn't drive inside the Patriots 20 yard line the entire game, and mishandled the clock on their final drive with a chance to tie the game.

All the Patriots did was drop some passes and miss two field goals. So on balance, the less self-destructive team won. It looked a lot like a pre-bye week game for the Pats.

The good news on offense is that the Patriots attack is always better when they force defenders to protect against multiple receivers and types of runners. Here are the numbers for their top five receivers and top two runners yesterday.

Receivers:
Rex Burkhead = 7 catches for 68 yards
James White = 5 for 85
Chris Hogan = 5 for 60
Rob Gronkowski = 5 for 57
Brandin Cooks = 5 for 26
Runners:
Dion Lewis = 15 carries for 44 yards
Mike Gillislee = 11 carries for 34 yards

It wasn't perfect yesterday; there were multiple drops and QB Tom Brady was under far too much pressure for much of the game (three sacks and seven QB hits). But other teams will have a very tough time defending the Patriots if they continue to feature that kind of diversified attack. There's a reason the Pats held the ball almost 37 minutes -- the Chargers couldn't figure out how to get off the field.

On defense, the news was mixed but leaning toward the positive. They blew one play and it went for an 87-yard touchdown run. Aside from that, they got off the field on third downs (30% conversions by L.A.), and they held the Chargers to 57% completions on just 30 attempts. Outside contain is still a problem against the run, as is the inside defense when Malcom Brown isn't in there (he missed yesterday's game ).

But linebackers Elandon Roberts, Kyle Van Noy, and David Harris all played their best games of the year. And Johnson Bademosi is rounding into a good corner, which will help with depth once starters Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore return from injuries. Not saying the defense is about to become a juggernaut; but they held their last four opponents to 14, 17, 7, and 13 points.

There was a miscommunication between corner Malcolm Butler and safety Devin McCourty on a touchdown pass, so there is obviously there is work to do. And I still think the lack of talent at linebacker will come back to haunt them if they make the playoffs. But there are encouraging signs.

And then there is special teams. First the good news; Brandon King and Jonathan Jones combined on a tackle in the end zone that scored a safety. And Jones almost stole another punt when he pushed a Chargers blocker into his own man trying for a fair catch.

However, kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed two field goals, although they were well-rounded failures: each from 43 yards, each from a different hashmark, and each from a different end of the field. He visited the locker room in the middle of the first half, but there was no follow-up on that from the broadcast crew -- so we don't know if his problems were injury-related.

But I'll suggest for the umpteenth time that they replace the special teams coach with a real special teams coach. The current guy (Joe Judge) was promoted from within and he appears to be out of his depth in trying to get Gostkowski right again. None of his misses have cost the team this year. But things are magnified in the playoffs; lest we forget they lost an AFC Championship Game four seasons ago partially because Gostkowski missed an extra point.

The coaching was decent in this game. Josh McDaniels abandoned the run too quickly a few times in the game, but fortunately the Pats defense held the Chargers down and the Patriots got back to it. The runs went mostly up the middle, excellent game-planning to take away the outside rush. Just wish they'd stuck with it more consistently.

And linebackers coach Brian Flores (last year's Coach Of The Year, at least in this space) is doing a good job making a more cohesive unit out of new and returning players. It isn't perfect yet -- Cassius Marsh still needs help, he gave up the fourth-down scramble last week and this week the 87-yard touchdown was run outside to his contain this week. But if last year is any indication, the linebackers will be solid by year's end.

Also, take a bow whomever is coaching Bademosi; quite the out-of-nowhere story this season.

So where does that leave us? 6-2 and ahead in the entire AFC is a good place to be. Oh sure, the Chiefs are 6-2 and hold the tiebreaker, but stay calm -- Andy Reid is the coach in KC; he'll be at least a game behind the Patriots by the end of the season.

Non-Brady MVP: Running back Rex Burkhead gets it this week, for his complimentary game of running and catching the ball well.

Statistical Oddity: To start the season, the Patriots gave up 300+ yards passing to the first six passers they faced. Since then, they gave up less than 300 yards to Matt Ryan, last year's MVP, and Philip Rivers, currently 10th in all-time passing yardage in NFL history.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: The Patriots held L.A. to just 52 offensive plays, their lowest total of the season. That is becoming quite a habit with the Pats (hello Atlanta Falcons!). (Trivia question: Against one team this calendar year, the Patriots failed to run more offensive plays in two separate games, can you name the team?)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe the Pats will make a trade by Tuesday so we'll have something to talk about during the bye week."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-2!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The Houston Texans tied for number of offensive plays in last year's playoffs (69-69) and ran more than the Patriots in their game earlier this season (71-64).

Patriots Outclass Falcons, 23-7

A funny thing happened on the way to 4-3, the Patriots detoured to 5-2 instead on the strength of a 23-7 beatdown of the Falcons at Gillette Stadium. The win put them atop the AFC East, a half-game ahead of the surprising Buffalo Bills (4-2). Next up is another surprise team, the 3-4 L.A. Chargers, who just shutout the Broncos 21-0.

Sunday night's game was easily the Patriots' best overall performance of the season. Their defense shut down the Atlanta offense for almost 56 minutes. The offense was diverse and efficient. And special teams was great in punt and kickoff coverage and even threw in a blocked field goal!

All three units were true team efforts, no single player really stood out over the unit play. Quarterback Tom Brady had a 121.2 rating, but only dropped back to pass 30 time. He ended up 21 of 29 for an efficient 249 yards and two touchdowns. The only throw that really stood out was his back-shoulder toss to Brandin Cooks; otherwise he simply carved up the Atlanta zone and waited out their man coverages.

The running backs split carries, with Deon Lewis carrying most of the load (13 rushes for 76 yards) and Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead dividing most of the other reps. Lewis and Burkhead impressed the most, the former with quick-hits and a great burst at the second level, and the latter for his speed to the hole and decent running for his first real plays of the season.

The receivers shared the load pretty evenly, as you can see from the receiving numbers: James White (5 catches), Chris Hogan (4), Cooks (4), Danny Amendola (3), and Rob Gronkowski (3) all contributed while none dominated. Although Gronkowski and Hogan get special mention for their blocking in the running attack.

And finally the offensive line started messy in pass protection but shored things up as the game wore on. They were very good run blocking, carving out enough room for 162 yards and a 4.5 average yards per carry. Nate Solder is still struggling, but the rest of the line looked very good, especially the interior.

All three levels of the defense were interesting to watch. The defensive line stuffed what is a good Falcons running attack, limiting them to 30 yards in the first half. Emerging star Trey Flowers continues to make impact plays (6 tackles and a huge penetration on the Falcons fourth-down at the goal line). And rookies Adam Butler and Deatrich Wise Jr. made good plays and held up well, while veteran Lawrence Guy gets better every week.

At linebacker, Cassius Marsh played better in pass coverage and Kyle Van Noy led the team in tackles (7); in fact, he made the tackle on the aforementioned fourth-down stuff at the goal line. If Dont'a Hightower can stay healthy, and Van Noy and Marsh continue to up their game every week, it's more and more likely the Patriots can do something in the playoffs without adding a linebacker via trade.

(Remember that last year I named linebackers coach Brian Flores the Coach of the Year. He molded his 2016 unit with mediocre talent and into a strength by year's end. If he can do that again, he should get serious consideration around the league for a defensive coordinator position this off-season.)

But the secondary might be most interesting of all. Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore were out with injuries, so Malcolm Butler and Johnson Bademosi had to step up against much bigger receivers. And they did! With an assist from safety Patrick Chung, they slowed down the Falcons and made big plays on third- and fourth-downs to stop drives before they got started. Bademosi and Butler were also among the team leaders in tackles, with seven and six, respectively.

When you consider that Jonathan Jones was their second-best corner to start the season, this unit could be a real strength when Rowe and Gilmore return. In fact, Gilmore could find himself riding the pine if he isn't careful, even though he is the highest-paid player on the team.

On special teams, Marsh blocked a field goal, making up for his lost outside contain on fourth-and-eight a few plays earlier. Jones had a great rush another field goal attempt, which might have influenced the kicker to hurry... and the kick doinked off the upright and was no-good. Stephen Gostkowski's kickoffs were great, as was the coverage.

The only downer was a Ryan Allen long punt that bounced into the end zone instead of checking up inside the ten yard line. But his other kicks were high enough to force fair catches by Atlanta.

The game was a coaching mismatch, but mostly because Atlanta stunk up the joint. Going for a fourth-down late in the first half was foolish, as was the slow-developing "jet sweep" called near the goal line (it was stuffed for a five-yard loss). But it wasn't just bad coaching by the Falcons; the Patriots had a great plan to stuff the run game and on offense they mixed pass and very effectively.

So where does that leave us? 5-2 is not a bad place to be, especially when you have only two convincing wins (New Orleans and Atlanta) and could easily be 2-5 or 3-4. This week will be an interesting match up, as the Chargers have the talent and some new life of late to give the Pats trouble.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: Trey Flowers, for anchoring the defensive line and making plays that didn't show up on the stat sheet but were crucial to shutting out the Falcons for almost the entire game.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Both of the winless teams this season have winning records against the Patriots all-time. San Francisco and Cleveland are both 0-7 this year, but the 49ers are 8-5 all time against the Patriots and the Browns are 12-11. (Trivia question: Can you name the only NFL team that has never beaten the Patriots? Answer below.)

Bonus Statistical Oddity: In Super Bowl LI, the Falcons last scored at about 8:30pm Eastern Standard Time. Last night they first scored at 11:15pm EST. So after they took a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, they went 80:20 of game time -- or 261+ days, or 6,266.75 hours -- before scoring again.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Pats played a great game; they would have beaten just about anyone last night."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 5-2!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-7 all-time against the Patriots.