Monday, October 30, 2017

Patriots Keep Rolling With 21-13 Win Over Chargers

Three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Brady beats Rivers. The Pats topped the Chargers 21-13 yesterday, winning their fourth straight game to land atop the AFC East at the halfway mark yet again. And in this game, Tom Brady moved to 7-0 all-time against Philip Rivers, whose only win over the Pats is against Matt Cassel. Next up is the bye week, so smoke 'em if you got 'em.

This game looked worrisome at times, but in the end, the Chargers shot themselves in the foot more often than the Patriots did. Los Angeles missed a field goal, gave up a horrible safety on a botched punt return, wiped out their own touchdown on a penalty, didn't drive inside the Patriots 20 yard line the entire game, and mishandled the clock on their final drive with a chance to tie the game.

All the Patriots did was drop some passes and miss two field goals. So on balance, the less self-destructive team won. It looked a lot like a pre-bye week game for the Pats.

The good news on offense is that the Patriots attack is always better when they force defenders to protect against multiple receivers and types of runners. Here are the numbers for their top five receivers and top two runners yesterday.

Receivers:
Rex Burkhead = 7 catches for 68 yards
James White = 5 for 85
Chris Hogan = 5 for 60
Rob Gronkowski = 5 for 57
Brandin Cooks = 5 for 26
Runners:
Dion Lewis = 15 carries for 44 yards
Mike Gillislee = 11 carries for 34 yards

It wasn't perfect yesterday; there were multiple drops and QB Tom Brady was under far too much pressure for much of the game (three sacks and seven QB hits). But other teams will have a very tough time defending the Patriots if they continue to feature that kind of diversified attack. There's a reason the Pats held the ball almost 37 minutes -- the Chargers couldn't figure out how to get off the field.

On defense, the news was mixed but leaning toward the positive. They blew one play and it went for an 87-yard touchdown run. Aside from that, they got off the field on third downs (30% conversions by L.A.), and they held the Chargers to 57% completions on just 30 attempts. Outside contain is still a problem against the run, as is the inside defense when Malcom Brown isn't in there (he missed yesterday's game ).

But linebackers Elandon Roberts, Kyle Van Noy, and David Harris all played their best games of the year. And Johnson Bademosi is rounding into a good corner, which will help with depth once starters Eric Rowe and Stephon Gilmore return from injuries. Not saying the defense is about to become a juggernaut; but they held their last four opponents to 14, 17, 7, and 13 points.

There was a miscommunication between corner Malcolm Butler and safety Devin McCourty on a touchdown pass, so there is obviously there is work to do. And I still think the lack of talent at linebacker will come back to haunt them if they make the playoffs. But there are encouraging signs.

And then there is special teams. First the good news; Brandon King and Jonathan Jones combined on a tackle in the end zone that scored a safety. And Jones almost stole another punt when he pushed a Chargers blocker into his own man trying for a fair catch.

However, kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed two field goals, although they were well-rounded failures: each from 43 yards, each from a different hashmark, and each from a different end of the field. He visited the locker room in the middle of the first half, but there was no follow-up on that from the broadcast crew -- so we don't know if his problems were injury-related.

But I'll suggest for the umpteenth time that they replace the special teams coach with a real special teams coach. The current guy (Joe Judge) was promoted from within and he appears to be out of his depth in trying to get Gostkowski right again. None of his misses have cost the team this year. But things are magnified in the playoffs; lest we forget they lost an AFC Championship Game four seasons ago partially because Gostkowski missed an extra point.

The coaching was decent in this game. Josh McDaniels abandoned the run too quickly a few times in the game, but fortunately the Pats defense held the Chargers down and the Patriots got back to it. The runs went mostly up the middle, excellent game-planning to take away the outside rush. Just wish they'd stuck with it more consistently.

And linebackers coach Brian Flores (last year's Coach Of The Year, at least in this space) is doing a good job making a more cohesive unit out of new and returning players. It isn't perfect yet -- Cassius Marsh still needs help, he gave up the fourth-down scramble last week and this week the 87-yard touchdown was run outside to his contain this week. But if last year is any indication, the linebackers will be solid by year's end.

Also, take a bow whomever is coaching Bademosi; quite the out-of-nowhere story this season.

So where does that leave us? 6-2 and ahead in the entire AFC is a good place to be. Oh sure, the Chiefs are 6-2 and hold the tiebreaker, but stay calm -- Andy Reid is the coach in KC; he'll be at least a game behind the Patriots by the end of the season.

Non-Brady MVP: Running back Rex Burkhead gets it this week, for his complimentary game of running and catching the ball well.

Statistical Oddity: To start the season, the Patriots gave up 300+ yards passing to the first six passers they faced. Since then, they gave up less than 300 yards to Matt Ryan, last year's MVP, and Philip Rivers, currently 10th in all-time passing yardage in NFL history.

Bonus Statistical Oddity: The Patriots held L.A. to just 52 offensive plays, their lowest total of the season. That is becoming quite a habit with the Pats (hello Atlanta Falcons!). (Trivia question: Against one team this calendar year, the Patriots failed to run more offensive plays in two separate games, can you name the team?)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Maybe the Pats will make a trade by Tuesday so we'll have something to talk about during the bye week."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-2!

PPS. Trivia answer:
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The Houston Texans tied for number of offensive plays in last year's playoffs (69-69) and ran more than the Patriots in their game earlier this season (71-64).

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