Patriots Defense Restores Order In 36-20 Rout Of Saints

The Patriots righted the ship with a 36-20 victory over the Saints yesterday in New Orleans. The win put them in a tie with Buffalo for second place in the AFC East, trailing the 1-0 Dolphins by a half-game. Next week the Houston Texans come to town, to face the depleted Pats.

The defense improved as the game wore on, giving up just seven points and only one big play after the break. This is more characteristic of the defense under coordinator Matt Patricia, so it appears the missed assignments and big plays of the Kansas City loss might have been an aberration.

It also came with their best linebacker (Dont'a Hightower) out with an injury and their best defensive lineman from last year (Alan Branch) not starting due to a poor performance against KC. The ultimate "next man up" team got its biggest defensive line contribution from a rookie, Deatrich Wise (2 tackles, 1 sack, and 5 quarterback hits).

In the secondary it wasn't big-money Stephon Gilmore or touted vet Malcolm Butler who impressed, but second-year Jonathan Jones, who made two tackles and knocked away two passes, both along the sideline. Safety Patrick Chung played very well, making eight tackles, knocking down one pass, and providing excellent coverage on the Saints' tight ends and running backs in the short zones.

The offense just nailed it in the first quarter: three touchdowns on three drives, with a good mix of running and passing plays, and nice tempo-changing plays thrown in for good measure. Tom Brady still wasn't great, despite having very good numbers. For the second straight game, he laid out too many potential interceptions, including one actual INT where he got bailed out on a penalty call. (The defensive holding call, not the 12-men call.)

The receivers they had looked great. Chris Hogan (5 catches, 78 yards, 1 touchdown) ran both deep and underneath passes, taking on part of the Julian Edelman traditional role. Brandon Cooks looked good in his New Orleans return, and tight end Rob Gronkowski was otherworldly for three quarters (6 for 116 yards, and a 53-yard touchdown catch-and-run). Unfortunately he got injured late in the game; although it's a groin injury, not his back or a broken bone. Might have dodged a bullet on that one.

The downside is the sheer lack of receivers. Both Hogan and Gronkowski were gimpy by game's end, so without Edelman and with Amendola in the concussion protocol, they are left with just Cooks and newcomer Phillip Dorsett (late of the Colts). It'll be tough to patch the offense together this week if Amendola doesn't return.

If the receiving corps is short-handed next week, expect some running backs to take a few snaps each to cover for the missing receivers. After all, they did it this week. James White led the team with eight receptions (85 yards), and Rex Burkhead (3 for 41), Dion Lewis (1 for 11), and James Develin (1 for 16) all lined up at receiver for a few plays.

The backs also did a nice job running the ball. Led by Mike Gillislee (18 carries for 69 yards), they ran for 119 yards and a 3.8 yards per carry average. The O-line also impressed in pass protection, giving up just five QB hits and two sacks. Brady made some of the biggest plays when he had lots of time in the pocket, which happened frequently.

The kicking game is still a work-in-progress. Against KC, they had two penalties for running into the punter, in a row -- first time I've ever witnessed that. Yesterday Stephen Gostkowski missed another extra point, and they had him place his kickoffs short to force a return -- but the Saints broke one anyway and the Pats committed a 15-yard penalty on another one.

The punting is impeccable as always. But somehow they have to solidify both the extra points and the kick coverage teams. Mistakes like that have to be corrected by late in the year if the team expects to make the playoffs, or make any noise in the playoffs.

So where does that leave us? Head coach Bill Belichick has said in the past the second game of the year is the most important regular season game. Because if you win the first game, you want to continue the momentum. But if you lose the first one, you need to turn it around fast!

The Pats did that emphatically against the Saints. Next up is Houston, which will be a much tougher test if Amendola and/or Gronkowski can't go.

Non-Brady MVP of the Week: I'm going with Chung, who was instrumental in sealing the short zones on defense. New Orleans was 4 of 12 (33%) on third-down conversions; first time in a while they've been that poor.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: This is the fourth season in a row the Saints started the season 0-2. (Trivia question: One other NFL team has also started the last four seasons 0-2, name it... Answer below.)

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "It was only the Saints."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-1!

PPS. Trivia Answer:
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
The Indianapolis Colts have also started each of the last four seasons 0-2. I guess "Suck For Luck" has lingered longer than they thought it would.

Patriots Mid-Season Report 2013

A very interesting first half put the Patriots exactly where I thought they’d be: 7-2 and in control of the division.  They won some they shouldn’t have won, lost one they shouldn’t have lost, and overall have a two-game lead with seven games to go.  Just about where they are every year at this time.

It’s a little past halfway, but here is the state of the Patriots after their ninth game.

Offense

If quarterback Tom Brady continues at this pace, he’ll end the season with career worsts in completion percentage (currently at 57.1%, career low 60.2%), touchdown percentage (3.8% vs. 4.4%), QB Rating (82.7 vs. 85.7), and sacks (46 vs. 41). It’s partially due to the lack of weapons, but his throws haven’t been as accurate as in recent years.

To be fair, a lot of the early incompletions were missed routes or dropped passes by new receivers. And his connection with the receivers is better, especially now that tight end Rob Gronkowski is rounding into form and Danny Amendola is healthy again.

Additionally, the high number of sacks is more on the offensive line than on Brady. Left guard Logan Mankins and left tackle Nate Solder have been confused on protection far too often this year. And physical defensive lines on Cincinnati, New Orleans, and the New York Jets accounted for over half the year’s sacks in three consecutive games.

The running game hasn’t been a problem, with an improvement from 4.2 yards per carry last year to 4.4 this year, and more explosive plays. So the O-line hasn’t been all bad, and it should improve further given that Gronkowski is one of the best blocking tight ends in football. But even with help from the tight ends, it will be on the starting five to step up their play, especially against larger, more physical defensive lines.

As for the receivers, two games ago rookie receiver Aaron Dobson and Brady finally connected on a back-shoulder pass -- the toughest pass to defend. And they followed that up with a back-shoulder TD last week. Dobson has all the physical skills, and with he and Brady getting into greater sync, he should be dangerous in the second half.

And if last week is any indication, Gronkowski, Dobson, and Danny Amendola will flood or split the field, spreading out defenses. It worked against Pittsburgh when the defense lost track of Amendola several times, for the easiest pass receptions, and one of the easiest touchdowns, of his career. And Gronkowski notched his first touchdown of 2013, and caught several easy pitch-and-catches down the seam.

Defense

The defensive line lost both of its interior players for the year, defensive captain Vince Wilfork and newcomer Tommy Kelly. They’ve been replaced by rookies, Joe Vellano (who is better against the run) and Chris Jones (who is second on the team with five sacks). But the team is getting beaten with inside runs, and when they overcommit to those, they’ve been beaten to the outside.

Chandler Jones does a nice job rushing the passer (8.5 sacks), but he’s no Rob Ninkovich when it comes to holding the edge against the run. And interestingly, the Patriots brought back one-time D-lineman Andre Carter -- and moved Jones to linebacker to help with pass coverage.  And that was necessary because…

Linebacker Jerod Mayo is also out of for the year, on injured reserve with a torn pectoral. Mayo’s taken his lumps from me over the years, mostly for his poor pass coverage. But he was much improved in that area, until the injury. So they need more speed and length in the linebacking corps, because Dont’a Hightower is almost D-lineman size and Brandon Spikes is vastly better against the run.

In the secondary, Aqib Talib is still the key. He’s been injured and missed a few games; and when he is out, the Patriots tend to move slot corner Kyle Arrington outside and backups Marquice Cole or Logan Ryan to the slot. They’d be better off keeping Arrington on the slot receivers and giving help to the side with Cole or Ryan. Arrington was repeatedly beaten in the second Jets game, and they eventually had to move him back inside -- and the Jets receivers aren’t even that good.

Safety Devin McCourty is having a spectacular season, and his counterpart, Steve Gregory is much better than last year. However, this is yet another area where the drop-off from starter to backup is significant, so the team has to hope both players can stay healthy.

Special Teams/Coaching

Stephen Gostkowski was already the most accurate kicker in Patriots history, and that was before he went 22 of 23 this year. His kickoffs have also been very good -- with plenty of touchbacks and hang time -- except for the Pittsburgh game, when they were a bit shorter than usual. Perhaps he was nursing an injury in that game, but if so, he’s had two weeks to rest and should be back to his normal, brilliant self.

Rookie punter Ryan Allen had a few early “yips” punts, but overall has done a very good job. He also does well holding on field goals (as evidenced by Gostkowski’s amazing percentage). And his coverage teams are very good; Nate Ebner is threatening to take away Matthew Slater’s title as all-around special teams ball hawk.

On kickoff returns, LeGarrette Blount shows surprisingly quick feet for such a big man. Not exactly a barn-burner, but better than Devin McCourty was last year. And Julian Edelman continues to take chances and make them payoff on punt returns; almost never fair-catching, and sometimes slipping through cracks so small you’d think a pee wee footballer wouldn’t fit through.

The defensive coaching has been mostly excellent. The only questionable decision was the aforementioned move of Arrington to the outside against the Jets. Aside from that, coordinator Matt Patricia has pulled the right strings all year.

On offense, Josh McDaniels needs to calm himself down sometimes. There is no need to go for a 40-yard bomb on third-and-two -- but somehow McDaniels still hasn’t learned that lesson. Oh, and Scott O’Brien continues to excel, year after year, coaching special teams.

Summary

With another division title in their sights, don’t expect the Patriots to lose focus. The Panthers are a sterner test than I gave them credit for in my Season Preview, but given Belichick’s record against young quarterbacks, and his dominance against the NFC, tomorrow’s tilt in Carolina should be a Patriots win.

The Patriots have suffered many injuries in past years, but never this many to key players. If they don’t stay healthy, they won’t pull out an undermanned Super Bowl victory, as they did in 2003. But they can compete for a championship with the injuries they’ve suffered so far; they just can’t afford any more.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: You should not concern yourself with Brady’s low completion percentage.  The lowest two seasons of his career are 2003 and 2004 (60.1% and 60.8%, respectively) -- and the Patriots won the Super Bowl both of those years.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Since 2001 Belichick is 16-5 after the bye, 15-5 on Monday night, and 42-9 against the NFC… so things could go well against the Panthers.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS.  7-2!

Patriots 17, Saints 38 (11/30/2009)

They don't get the crap kicked out of 'em often, but it happened last night. The Saints shellacked the Patriots 38-17, dropping their record to 7-4, though that is still good enough for a two-game lead in the division. Pats played them pretty tough for about 20 minutes, and then the wheels fell off, with multiple defensive lapses and not enough offensive firepower to keep up.

I considered taking the week off, just like the Patriots secondary. After all, what is there to say about a 21-point loss to an obviously superior team. But rather than do that, I'll veer from my normal update and go over what went wrong when the Patriots were still in the game and how they can improve their second-half offense, which has been poor against good teams on the road.

(BTW, if you're looking for my normal type of update, here it is: Defense was awful except Tully Banta-Cain and Jerod Mayo -- some of the time. Offensively, the O-line did a decent job run blocking but not pass blocking, Brady was rattled and inconsistent, Kevin Faulk was good, and there was a surprise in the receiving corps -- guess who led the team in receptions and yards for the first time ever [answer below]. On special teams, Gostkowski was outkicked by the opposition for the first time this year. As for coaching... well, it isn't Charlie Weis they need back, it's Romeo Crennel. Now back to the actual update.)

They started the game strong, holding the Saints to a field goal and then driving down for a touchdown and a 7–3 lead. After stopping New Orleans on the next drive, Wes Welker returned a punt 41 yards to give the Pats great field position. But on the first play, Randy Moss turned his crossing pattern up the field and Brady threw where he should have been and the ball was intercepted. This mistake wasn't all on Moss. The O-line gave up quick pressure and Moss would have been covered if he continued the cross. But if he'd run the pattern the pass would probably have been incomplete instead of intercepted, and the Patriots could have continued the drive. Saints drove the ball down for a TD and it was 10-7.

With the game still close, on the next drive, Laurence Maroney went for 5 yards on first down. Then Sammy Morris dropped an easy three-yard pass, which put the Patriots in third-and-5 instead of third-and-2. And the next play was a 3-yard completion to Sam Aiken. So without Morris' drop (and in fairness, it was his first game action in a while), the Patriots keep the ball and are at midfield. But in reality, they punted it away and that lead to this...

On first down, the Patriots ran a corner blitz with Jonathan Wilhite. Saints QB Drew Brees faked an inside run and that brought up the linebacker on that side (Jerod Mayo) and the safety to that side (Brandon McGowan) covered a 15-yard pattern over the middle. That left Saints receiver Devery Henderson wide open -- and I mean *wide* open, more open than any NFL receiver I've seen in 15 years -- for a 75-yard quick strike touchdown.

So now a game that would likely have been tied (with decent play by the offense on the previous two possessions) is a 10-point Saints lead.

Fast-forward two drives and the Pats trailing 24-10 with 1:50 left in the half. The Patriots put together a nice drive, moving 48 yards in 48 seconds, setting up first-and-10 at the Saints 32. If they score a touchdown here, they get the ball first in the second half, at which point another touchdown ties the game. But the backjudge (the referee in the deep center of the defense) misses an obvious pass interference call when Saints defensive back Pierson Prioleau throws a hand into Benjamin Watson's face and pulls down his left arm. A penalty call would have been good for a first down at the Saints 3 yard line. But the bad non-call meant the Patriots settled for a 53-yard field goal attempt that went wide left.

And in the second half, they were extremely fortunate to recover the ball when Maroney fumbled and then forced the defender to fumble again. And they cashed that in, driving 81 yards on 8 plays. But the Saints' first play of the second half was a 68-yard catch and run that led to another New Orleans touchdown and another 2-touchdown lead. On the next Patriots possession, the last chance to stay in the game fell by the wayside when a fourth-down pass to Randy Moss was knocked away at the Saints 5 yard line.

After that it was a lot of running plays, one more New Orleans touchdown, one more Brady interception, and some playing time for Patriots rookie backup QB Brian Hoyer. Not much else to say. Saints were the hungrier, faster, and better prepared team on this day. Looks like the Patriots have some work to do.

As for what work they need, even though the defensive communication problems gave the Saints quick scores, the biggest problems in their four losses are on the offensive side of the ball. They aren't making good enough adjustments, and on the big stage they appear overwhelmed by the moment. So here are a few unsolicited suggestions to help in their remaining road games (they have three, unless they make the playoffs).

1. The offense has looked a lot better in the first half, so save maybe a quarter of your best plays for the beginning of the second half instead of the beginning of the game. If you score one touchdown fewer in the first half but two touchdowns more in the second, it will be worth it. And that would help your team build some confidence about playing in the second half.

2. Try more misdirection plays early in the second half. Home teams in big games come out of the locker room rested, refreshed, and flying all over the place, and are thus more prone to overpursue plays early in the third quarter. So give 'em a flea-flicker or a reverse in the first series, and when they overreact to the initial action you should get a decent play out of it. This will also keep the other team's defense off balance, which can't hurt.

3. Rotate in a new running back to start the second half. Fresh legs can be effective against a defense that has played a half already. And it will help keep your starting running back fresher, too.

4. Be patient. It wouldn't have helped last night, but in most cases it is better and safer to run the ball and throw it short early in the second half. Long pass plays take more time to develop and are more difficult to execute, so the chances of a sack or interception should be weighed carefully.

So where does that leave us? 7-4 and two games up in the AFC East is not a bad place to be. So far I was dead wrong about the Colts and Saints games -- here's hoping that continues next week, since I predicted a loss in Miami. I don't know what is going to happen (obviously), but take note that in the past six seasons, the Patriots have lost two games in a row only once.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Drew Brees has had some great games, but yesterday's 158.3 QB rating (the highest you can get) and absolutely *sick* 16.1 yards per attempt were both career highs. For the sake of the rest of the league, here's hoping this oddity *stays* an oddity!

Statistical Oddity of the Week, Part II: Laurence Maroney, who had 1 fumble in his first 38 career games, had 1 fumble in each of the last 3 games.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Hey, even Bill Belichick is allowed a stinker once in a while."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 7-4!

PPS. Trivia answer: Sam Aiken had 7 catches for 90 yards.

Patriots 24, Saints 27 (11/20/2005)

You may have heard the rumors, and of course, they turned out to be partially true. I was indeed a late addition to the Patriots injury list last Friday, having suffered a throat injury in the Colts game when I yelled myself silly for all 36:41 of Indianapolis possession time. I was hopeful that the doctors were wrong and I'd be in peak form by game time this past Sunday, but alas, I was in the same boat as Troy Brown -- made the trip to the stadium, suited up, but was never a factor in the game. Fortunately, I brought along a friend loud enough to bellow for two, and he did an admirable job making up for my absence. My medical staff has assured me that I'll be ready to go by the December 4 game against the Jets. Thank you to everyone who sent along their cards and well-wishes. With your support I'll be healthy in no time.

Now, on the the game. The only thing pretty about Sunday was the weather. But the Patriots thrashed the Saints early and held on for a nail-biting 24-17 victory. They are now in the midst of their first winning streak of the season, and coupled with losses by all other AFC East teams, the Pats are two games ahead of their nearest competitors for the division title. That home playoff game feels closer and closer every day (and so does the playoff ticket invoice -- yikes!).

The offense started well, with a 16-play, 98-yard drive for a touchdown and a drive about half the size (5 plays, 48 yards) for another touchdown -- the first time they've gone touchdown-touchdown to start the game since the last regular season game of 2003 (31-0 win over Buffalo). The running back tandem of Heath Evans and Patrick Pass went for 127 yards on 29 carries (a healthy 4.4 yards a rush), and the O-line provided some gaping holes, which were combined with timely play-calling that gave them 4 carries of over 10 yards. Ben Watson had one of his best games, leading the team with 66 receiving yards and making his second outstanding catch in two weeks (a back-twisting stab in the first quarter). No TDs for Ben, but he's taking up Daniel Graham's slack nicely.

Tom Brady was Mr. Mediocre, with okay stats and no interceptions. He had a fumble that was mostly not his fault, and his play-action fakes are improved. But he over- or under-threw about six long passes, and if he connected on just half of them the game would have been a laugher. It was windy out, but that doesn't explain the passes coming up short and long going in both directions. He was just off, and the fact that those long strikes were simple incompletions meant the Saints didn't have to adjust their defense. And while the long ball was obviously part of the Pats game plan, someone needs to tell them that a 50-yard bomb isn't called for on third-and-four. Get the first down and take your shot on the next play; but above all GET THE FIRST DOWN. In that situation, something short and certain beats a 50-yard incompletion, so some of those stalled drives were the coaches' fault.

The defense helped Aaron Brooks look better than he really is, just like they helped Gus Ferotte last week. But in both games, the Pats worked hard to stop the run and they let up more passing as a result. Sure, the secondary is injured and in disarray, but for two weeks they've bent but not broken -- which is how the Patriots won all those games the past four years. I'm starting to like the improvement I see from new safety Michael Stone (seven tackles) and cornerback Ellis Hobbs (not afraid to hit); and as they improve, it seems like Eugene Wilson is playing a little better. Not Harrison/Wilson/Poole/Law yet, but better than previous weeks (although I admit it's easier to do this against the Saints than the Colts). Hobbs and his partner in crime Asante Samuel played okay but not great games. No picks, and some missed coverage, but overall they made the Saints work the ball down the field slowly. And often enough the Saints self-destructed; just like the Dolphins did last week.

Willie McGinest had a nice game (a sack, five tackles and two passes defensed), and Mike Vrabel, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, and Tedy Bruschi clogged up the Saints favorite running lanes. The Saints had been averaging 122 yards rushing a game, and the Pats held them to only 87. The front three/four needs to get more pressure on the quarterback, but I don't think that was a big part of the plan for the Saints game. And if you'll indulge me for a moment, Tedy Bruschi is a football genius. I watched him on one play, and he faked the blitz and then dropped back two yards and cut off a slant route at the *exact spot* where Aaron Brooks almost tried to deliver the ball (Brooks pulled it back at the last second and then threw it away). Bruschi's instincts are outstanding, and he's getting to his spots quicker every week.

The special teams were quite something in that wind. Adam Vinatieri kicked well into and against the wind, they had *zero* penalties on special teams, Josh Miller continued his Pro Bowl-caliber season with five boots for 47.5 yards a kick (while New Orleans averaged only 32.2). Their only blemish was a 46-yard kickoff return in the fourth quarter; a play that helped the Saints get back into the game but did not prove fatal. But overall, with the wind swirling around, a very good day.

One coaching note: in case you hadn't heard, Steve Belichick (Bill's father) died of heart failure this past Saturday night. I hope you'll join me in sending my sincere condolences to Bill and his entire family.

So where does that leave us. Well, at 6-4, the Patriots are clearly the class of the AFC East. Leading the division by two games and having a 2-0 record within the division is about as much as you could hope for in a season like this. Next week's contest against the Chiefs in Kansas City is their toughest game left this year. KC has a balanced offense (which has given the Pats fits), so they can't load up to stop the run or the pass. Getting more pressure without committing more blitzers will be critical, so Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Rosevelt Colvin, and Willie McGinest will be on the hot seat. So enjoy the streak while it lasts; it could easily be over by next Sunday.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "In the first 8 games, the Patriots averaged 78 yards rushing a game. The last two? 112 yards. Thank you Miami Dolphins for Heath Evans. Now if they could just release a few defensive backs, we'd be in business."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 6-4!