Patriots 32, Panthers 29 (2/1/2004)

Well, hi there. Hope you got to watch the game and enjoyed it as much as I did. As you no-doubt know, YOOOOOUUUUUURRRRR New England Patriots won 32-29 on a last-second field goal by Adam Vinatieri, claiming their second Super Bowl Championship in three years - by a total of six points. Each half was a defensive struggle followed by an offensive explosion, with all the points being scored in the second and fourth quarters. Each team acquitted itself nicely, and I give the Panthers a lot of credit for hanging in and coming back. But in the end, experience won the day, and the Pats are world champions again.

I haven't seen the entire game (I was scrounging for tickets until mid-way through the first quarter), and I didn't get to watch the rest of the game the way I really like to, but I wanted to send my impressions. If my opinions change once I see the game this weekend (I have it on tape), I'll send a follow-up email.

Offense

First off, kudos to the Patriots offensive line and their coach Dante Scarnecchia. Three playoff games, zero sacks, and an average of 112 yards rushing a game (a 10% improvement over the regular season). The Pats controlled the clock for 38 of the 60 minutes in the Super Bowl, and a lot of the credit goes to the O-line's domination of the acknowledged best defensive line in the NFL. They used run-blocking schemes to get the Panthers defense off-balance and on their heels, and it worked to perfection. Antowain Smith hit holes big enough to fit two Ted Washington's through, and Kevin Faulk's speed and shiftiness was a great counterpoint and clearly caught the Panthers off-guard. After the game, several Panther defenders said the Pats ran the ball every time they thought they would pass and passed it whenever the Panthers thought it would be a run - a credit to Charlie Weis and the offensive play-calling.

All that said, this day really belonged to Tom Brady and the Patriot receivers. Brady had 32 completions (a Super Bowl record) for 348 yards, three touchdowns and only one interception. Deion Branch had a huge day, torching the Panthers for 143 yard on 10 catches and he appeared to be running alone most of the day. David Givens and Daniel Graham made good contributions to the attack, while the Carolina cornerbacks were exposed by Branch and Troy Brown (8 catches for 76 yards and one broken nose). They were caught out of position on run-fakes on all three touchdown passes. They just weren't good enough to jam the receivers at the line and then cover them down the field, and when they committed extra DBs in to help in coverage, it left fewer guys to rush the passer and stop the run.

And getting back to Brady, he's obviously matured as a quarterback since their last Super Bowl. He had more attempts, completions, passing yards, and touchdowns. The "just don't lose the game" mantra from Super Bowl 36 was replaced by the "go out there and win it" attitude in this game and he delivered big play after big play. League-wide, 75% of the audibles that quarterbacks call are passing plays; Brady audibled into a running play at least four times that I recall, and that keeps a defense off-balance because they're just not expecting it. And as impressive as the last drive was in both Super Bowls, each of them came with the game tied and where failure simply meant overtime. I was more impressed with the second-to-last drive because the Patriots were behind and failure to score could have meant losing the game. He really is cool under pressure, and here's hoping he stays healthy for a long time.


Defense

Ted Washington was a real key to the Patriots defense. With him clogging the middle, the Panthers rushed for an anemic 92 yards (a 30% drop from their regular season numbers), with half those yards coming on two runs (Stephen Davis's 21 yarder before the half and DeShaun Foster's 33 yard touchdown). The Panthers averaged close to 6 yards a carry, but like the Rams before them, they insisted on throwing into a defense that was more vulnerable against the run because of its deployment. That brings me to another defensive key to the game: the ability of the defensive line to get pressure without blitzing. The Pats blitzed either four or eight times in the game (depending on your source), which isn't much for them - although at least two of those resulted in sacks by Mike Vrabel. Vrabel had a career game (two sacks, a forced fumble, and a touchdown reception), and the defensive line got steady pressure and played pretty well against the run with little or no help from blitzers.

Tyrone Poole's performance was a bit sub-standard for him, and the Panthers wisely stayed away from Ty Law. In fact, Carolina had only two long scoring drives on the day, one came after Rodney Harrison was injured, and the other came after Eugene Wilson was injured, leaving the Patriots with no starting safeties in the game. After the second injury, Panther quarterback Jake Delhomme simply dropped back and threw to the deep middle for one completion after another, working his way down for his last touchdown of the game. I was impressed with the toughness and resiliency of the receivers, and Delhomme played inspired football. But in the end, their early first-half failures left them with no margin for error in the second half, and they couldn't take enough advantage against the Pats defense when it had worn down.


Special Teams

Adam missed two kicks (one wide-right, one blocked) and botched a "squib" at the end of the first half, Ken Walter had a low kicking average, and the return teams didn't do much to help the Patriots with field position. All that said, however, the Patriots special teams significantly outplayed their Carolina counterparts. Carolina has zero big returns, their punter put two through the end zone, and when the pressure was on, John Kasay put a kickoff out of bounds to give the Patriots the ball at their own 40 yard line with over a minute left in the game. At the very least, you have to kick that ball in-bounds, because even if Bethel Johnson returns it to the 40 yard line, it takes 10 or 15 seconds off the clock. The Carolina fans sitting near us said they would take Kasay in any pressure situation, but as I said in last week's email, he is not a good clutch kicker (missed three in a loss to Philly this year, missed a potential overtime game winner in the playoffs this year, and now booted one out of bounds at the worst possible time). And when the money was on the line, Adam V. came through again - right down the middle with only four seconds left. In fact, Vinatieri's kickoffs were longer than usual (must have been the extra week of rest), and the kick coverage was great. It seemed Carolina always had the long field to go. Even Ken Walter pitched in with a 51 yarder to shift field position at a critical time in the third quarter.


Coaching

This was absolutely a mismatch. The Panthers out-thought themselves in the two week run-up to the game. They didn't run often enough and couldn't pass for most of the first half. If the Pats hadn't gotten some injuries (and scored so quickly that their defense started getting tired), this could easily have been a 17- or 21-point blowout because Carolina gave up on what got them to the game. They went for two points much too early in the fourth quarter, and had to follow that up with another failed two-point attempt, never made the adjustments necessary to make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket, and never adjusted to the play-action pass near the goal line (I mean, three play-action pass touchdowns is unheard of). Meanwhile, the Patriots used run-blocking to slow the Panther defensive line, they played a soft zone instead of blitzing and that seemed to confuse Carolina, and their pressure confused the offense to the tune of four sacks and a fumble. The only mistake the Patriot coaches made was the ill-advised and poorly executed squib at the end of the half.


Conclusion

Heck of a game and a heck of a run. 15 consecutive wins speaks volumes about the resolve and resourcefulness of this team. I said weeks ago that this is one of the five or six best defenses I've ever seen, and the intervening time hasn't changed my mind at all. Tom Brady wants to get ring
#3 and I give him a great shot to get it before his career is over. But if they can hold the coaching staff together for next year, I'd give him a good chance of doing it next year. I can almost hear Belichick saying to the team: "You want to be recognized as one of the great teams of all time?
Then win it all next year and you'll have three Super Bowl wins in four years - only one other team has ever done that (Dallas Cowboys)." They've got some issues to handle in the off-season, but every team does; however, keeping the coaches together is the key to making another run in 2004. In my preseason preview, I said the following: "This may be the last year the Patriots have Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel as offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively. If the Pats have a good year, look for at least one of them to get a head coaching job." Well, if the rest of the league lacks the patience to wait for Weis or Crennel, their loss is our gain - and our gain will be the league's loss next year!

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Just like with the Rams in 2001, look for teams to attack the Panthers defensive line the same way the Patriots did in the Super Bowl. They just couldn't get a decent push against the run-blocking schemes on pass plays - it totally took them out of their game."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 3-0!

Patriots vs. Panthers Super Bowl Preview (1/28/2004)

Hey there,

So everyone keeps asking me how I think the Super Bowl will go. Well, you're about to be among the first to know.

When the Panthers have the ball.

Look for Carolina to run it as much as they can. They'll probably go deep with a couple of early pass attempts, just to keep the Pats defense honest. But for the most part, they will run with Stephen Davis and throw some short passes and try not to turn the ball over. As with many NFL games, it wouldn't surprise me if the Panthers scored on their first or second drive. Teams often have good plans for that opening salvo, but the Patriot defense will make the proper adjustments and stop the Panthers running game for most of the rest of the first half, as they have done to most every running back this season.

Unlike the last two games, I expect the Patriots will blitz a lot more against Delhomme. And early in the game, most of those will be contained blitzes on obvious passing downs, because committing a lot of blitzers against a running team can lead to big plays - draws or outside pitches for 30+ yards. The Pats have enough defensive speed to close down the 30+ inside run if the back breaks through the blitzers, but giving Davis the outside would be a major mistake. The Pats will jam the Panther receivers at the line of scrimmage, and the coverages will be complex enough to confuse both the receivers and the quarterback. And that confusion should lead to either failed drives or turnovers. The Panthers sometimes send only two or three receivers into the pattern, not enough to test the Pats defensive backfield the way the Colts and Titans did.

This is a mismatch in the Patriots favor. Carolina runs the ball well, the Patriots stop the run better than anyone. Carolina has a limited passing attack and an inexperienced quarterback, the Patriots have a fast and experienced defense that confuses even the best veteran QBs. Heck, the Titans and Colts have much more offensive talent, especially at quarterback, and each scored only 14 points against the Pats in the playoffs - so I don't expect the Panthers to score very easily. If the Patriots convert an early Carolina turnover into a touchdown, the game could be over quickly.

When the Patriots have the ball

I expect the Patriots to go deep at least twice in the first two drives. Carolina probably anticipates the Pats will use the short pass and the run to move the ball down the field. But I expect them to throw deep against coverages designed to take away the short game, and Tom Brady has hit on more big passing plays this year than the previous two combined. The Panther run defense is solid, so don't hold out much hope that the Patriots will control the ball with the run. But they will run and will have a decent average per run - they just won't run enough to control the game that way. It will fall to Brady and the receivers, and that's just fine with me. He's performed well all year, minimizing those crucial mistakes while maximizing his opportunities. The Patriots have scored an opening-drive touchdown in five straight games, and if they do so in Super Bowl XXXVIII, it will put a lot of pressure on that young Panther offense.

The Panthers are big and physical on defense, much like the Titans. They get pressure with their front four, giving them seven players to drop into coverage on pass plays. And on running plays, their front four usually occupies the entire offensive line, leaving the linebackers and defensive backs to clean up. Their linebackers and DBs are physical and will challenge the Patriot receivers at the line and over the middle - no different that most of the year, which is why the Pats had so many injuries at WR. Carolina will force the Patriots to grind out yards for most of the game, but if the Patriots get time, the Carolina secondary is vulnerable to the big play. As in the Titans game, look for Bethel Johnson early.

This is a slight advantage to Carolina. Their defense is playing well at just the right time and they are big and physical. If the Pats hadn't faced the Titans and Dolphins twice this year, I'd say they weren't ready for a physical defense, but they are. However, without a bruising running game to wear down the Carolina defense, it will be a chore to score a lot of points against them. The most important thing for the Patriots is to protect the ball - because the Panthers live for the turnover.

Special Teams

Adam Vinatieri is a better field goal kicker than John Kasay. Kasay missed three field goals in a big loss to Philadelphia, and missed a short kick in the St. Louis playoff game, whereas Vinatieri is money in the bank - no kicker you'd rather have in a big game. The kick coverage for both teams is very good, and I don't expect a lot of big plays on kickoffs. On the other hand, Todd Sauerbrun is a better punter than Ken Walter. Sauerbrun's yardage and net yardage averages were 7 and 5 yards better (respectively) than Walter's. But Ken easily beat Todd in touchback percentage (4% for Walter, 12% for Sauerbrun), kicks downed inside the 20 yard line (33% to 29%), and average kick return yards against (7 to 12). Still, all in all, I'd take Sauerbrun over Walter - although Ken has kicked better since returning against Jacksonville. I don't anticipate a lot of big returns against the Patriots, their coverage is very good, but you might see Troy Brown pop a few 20+ yarders against the Panthers.

I'd call this an ever-so-slight edge to the Patriots. The kick coverage teams are disciplined and well coached, and the kicking distance game goes slightly in favor of Carolina. But the difference in the big game is Adam Vinatieri and his golden toe. Nothing beats the knowledge of how to get it done with everything on the line, and his performances against Oakland and St. Louis two years ago say it all.

Other Factors

Both teams will benefit from the two week break. Defenses are always the major winners under such scenarios, so the Panthers will likely make it tougher on our offense because they had two weeks to prepare, just as we will do to their offense. The coaching match up is in the Patriots favor, but the "underdog" factor goes the Panthers way. So what decides it is that the Patriots have a better defense, a much better offense, and a slightly better kicking game. It won't be a blowout unless the Panthers panic and turn the ball over, which could happen but I don't expect it.

Injuries shouldn't matter much. Russ Hochstein played very well as a replacement for Damien Woody, and Ted Johnson will step in if Tedy Bruschi is injured - and that won't be as much of a factor as usual, because the Panthers don't have the passing attack to take advantage of Johnson's limitations in pass coverage. Carolina running back Stephen Davis has practiced all week and will likely be almost full speed for the game. Besides, a good running game almost always depends more on the offensive line than the actual running back, and the Panthers don't have any injuries there.

The Prediction

Since I'm going to the game, I am incapable of predicting a Patriots loss. I'd say a late turnover will turn the game from a 10-point game to a 14- or 17-point game. Let's go with 27-13.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Forget about the 14-game winning streak, did you know the Patriots haven't trailed in a game since before Thanksgiving?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-0!

Patriots 24, Colts 14 (1/18/2004)

So the Patriots are going to the Bowl again -- sweet! Sunday's AFC Championship game was another classic, with the Pats pressuring Peyton Manning and daring the Colts to run. The Pats scored on 6 of their 10 possessions (excluding the end of half and end of game) whereas the Colts only scored on 2 of their 11 possessions (unless you include the Safety they scored for the Pats... heh heh). And once again, the Patriots improved their performance against a team the second time they played. So now it's on to Houston to tame the Panthers and bring home a second Lombardi Trophy -- at least that's they way *I* want it to go. It's a more interesting match up than if Philly had won, because the Pats stomped them 31-10 earlier this year and the Eagles have injuries and no offense left.

It's the same old song for this defense, although they added a verse or two. Ty Law was the man on Sunday -- with as many catches (3) as Colts receiver Marvin Harrison. Two of his interceptions were just great catches, and when you add Rodney Harrison's INT and forced fumble, the Pats got 5 turnovers (compared to 2 in the first game). Harrison (Rodney, not Marvin) and Eugene Wilson had some monster hits, and the Colt receivers obviously were short-arming passes by the second quarter. In fact, the Pats played the same defense Sunday that they played in Super Bowl XXXVI against the Rams -- five defensive backs, two linebackers, and four down lineman, not much blitzing, and daring the Colts to run the ball. And the Colts played just like the Rams, throwing into a defense that's more vulnerable to the run.

In fact, some of their best success came early in the third quarter when they scored their first touchdown on a drive that was mostly running. But for some reason, they didn't stick with it, and Manning paid the price. The Pats pressured him up the middle and from the back side, making him move before passing. And he threw at least three of his interceptions while on the move to the right. Jarvis Green arose from the bench to notch three sacks, and the D-line got pressure without much blitzing at all, leaving the back seven to handle three or four receivers -- a mismatch in the Patriots favor. The only bad news for the Pats defense was Tedy Bruschi limping off the field late in the game. His status for the Super Bowl is uncertain.

What is certain is that the Panthers will have their hands full with the Patriots offense. Antowain Smith is running like he did two years ago (22 carries for 100 yards), David Givens makes big-time plays (8 catches and a touchdown), Troy Brown is back to his old self (7 catches for 88 yards and a punt return for 16 yards), Adam Vinatieri went 5-5 on field goals, and Tom Brady continues to build his reputation as one of the best clutch quarterbacks in the game (5-0 in the playoffs; 9-0 against teams with a winning record this year). Brady did throw his first interception at home this year, but it was inconsequential to the outcome. In fact, if they'd converted two of those field goals into touchdowns, this would have been a blowout. (Personally, I think they threw too much when they got close to the end zone, and should have used Kevin Faulk more near the goal line.) The Pats first drive was textbook, short passes mixed with runs, and the touchdown to Givens was a beautifully designed play that beat an over-aggressive Colt defender trying to anticipate Brady's throw. The Patriots offense beat the Colts offense in time of possession, third down conversion rate, yards rushing, yards passing, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt (which correlates very closely with winning games). They also allowed no sacks, and had only two penalties and have the look of the 2001 team with a bit more talent.

Adam kicked ass (as well as the ball) on Sunday. Doesn't get much better than 5-5 on field goals. And the rest of the special teams played well, except for the kickoff to open the second half. Ken Walter didn't mess up any punts (ask the Colts what that feels like), and he saved at least two bad snaps on field goal attempts. The Colts were obviously still afraid of Bethel Johnson, kicking it short so he couldn't return it. And that worked well for us because we started just about every drive at the 35 yard line or better. Troy Brown turned in a 16-yard return on their only punt, and the Pats basically won the field position game all day.

Overall, the Patriots did what they've done all year when facing a team for the second time, especially in points allowed (a twenty point drop from first game to second). They had more sacks (from 2 to 4) and more turnovers (2 to 5) and totally rattled co-MVP Peyton Manning. And I expect they will do much of the same to the Panthers in Houston. Even though it's the first time they will play this year, the Patriots defense against an inexperience quarterback is a mismatch. The Panthers can run the ball but they haven't faced a run defense as ferocious as the Patriots is, and they don't have enough of a passing threat to force the Patriots out of their run defense.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Patriots can't win for very long if Tedy Bruschi is out. He got injured last year and they lost their next four games. But they have shored up their run defense and have enough speed to win the Super Bowl even if Bruschi is out. But I hope he's back in time for the Bowl anyway."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 2-0!

Patriots vs. Colts Preview (1/14/2004)

Alright then, almost time to get it on in Foxboro. Colts/Pats II should be a great match up. The first one was a classic and both teams are playing better now. It's January, it's cold, it's windy, it's the playoffs -- let's get ready to rumble!

Some thoughts on Sunday's game. I did a little research and came up with some interesting numbers. This will be the Pats second game against the Colts this season, and they've played four other teams twice this year: Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and Titans. The Patriots were 7-1 in those games (5-0 at home), with their only loss being the opener against Buffalo. The most telling stats from those games is how much better the Patriots did against those teams the second time the played them. On a per game basis, the Patriots defense improved by 38% in passing yards allowed (from 262 to 163), 86% in forced turnovers (1.75 to 3.25), 220% in sacks (1.25 to 4), and most importantly, 67% in points allowed (22.5 to 7.5). The Patriot offense improved in sacks allowed by 55% (2.75 down to 1.25) and in turnovers by 43% (1.75 to 1). Those numbers should give the Colts some pause. None of their opponents got more sacks or turnovers the second time around, none got more passing yards, and none scored more points. And here come the Colts with their high-powered passing game -- into windy Gillette Stadium with a hostile crowd and conditions that will get worse as the game goes on (possibility of snow and a dropping temperature).

The good news for the Colts is that their offense is on fire. Peyton Manning has played exceptionally well, and was already playing well toward the end of the season, so it isn't just a playoff phenomenon. He's making good decisions both before and after the snap, his receivers are making big plays, and they score touchdowns most every trip inside the opponent's 20 yard line. And Edgerrin James is a great running back and is complimented by Marcus Pollard at tight end. However, it's been a while since the Colts faced a defense as good as the Patriots. It was probably their last game against the Patriots, where they lost 38-34 in the RCA dome. Look for the Patriots to call some last-second blitzes to counteract Manning's penchant for faking the snap to get the defense to give away their coverage. Also, look for the Pats to be extra physical with the receivers and to make the Colts earn every yard by tackling a lot better than either KC or Denver the last two weeks. And don't expect James or the short passing game to control the Patriot defense -- they have too much size up front and too much speed at linebacker.

The bad news for the Colts is that their defense is also on fire. In fact, it got third-degree burns against Kansas City. KC's offense is better than ours, but we did score 38 points against the Colts earlier in the year, and their defense has gotten worse since then. In fact, their secondary is banged up, with two starters listed as questionable (50% chance of playing) for Sunday's game. Indy reminds me of the 15-1 Minnesota Vikings of 1998, with a defense built to thrive on being ahead. Those Vikings would score 21 points in the first quarter, forcing the other team pass a lot to get back in the game. And it's a lot easier to play defense when you know the other team has to pass. Indy's defense isn't built to shut the other team down because they score so often they almost never have to. (Note: Colts head coach Tony Dungy has admitted that his defense is three years away from being as good as he wants them to be -- a scary omen for the future, but not very scary right now.)

The Patriots have the perfect offense to beat such a defense. Denver ran for 227 yards against the Colts four weeks ago, and a lot of people think the Pats should do the same. Control the clock and keep Peyton Manning on the sideline, win the time of possession battle and the game will be yours. I don't think the Pats will do that early on. They will run it some (as they always do), and they could pick up some decent yardage that way. But they will go deep against the Colts early in the game, just as they did against Tennessee. You have to get the other team's cornerbacks to drop back if you want to succeed in the short passing game, and the Pats will hit them with one or two haymakers in the first quarter. If the Pats get another first-drive touchdown and can hold the Colts on their first possession, it could be a long day for Peyton. In the last game, the Colts were down by 21 points, and they came back quickly because Tom Brady threw some terrible interceptions that gave Indy a short field. Well, Mr. Brady hasn't thrown an interception at home all year, so the Colts shouldn't count on such hospitality this time around. If the Pats establish a lead, look for heavy dose of Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk to keep Manning and the offense on the sideline.

As for kicking and other topics. Adam V. proved again that he is a money kicker, especially in the cold and wind. Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt hasn't missed a field goal or extra point all year, so I'm not counting on many screw-ups from him. However, it will be interesting to see him kick a frozen ball in the wind. That streak might just come to an end this Sunday. Ken Walter helped the Colt comeback in the earlier game with some bad kicks. But he's kicked better since he came back, and he covered-up for three long-snapping mistakes last Saturday, so I guess we'll go with him until next season and hope for the best. The weather will certainly favor the Patriots, as will the home crowd. And even though I don't usually put much stock in those "Belichick has gotten inside Manning's head" things, Peyton is 0-4 in Foxboro and Belichick comes up with great plans to beat immobile quarterbacks.

This is a classic match up of great offense and great defense. Over the years, teams with sub-par defenses and great offenses have made the Super Bowl. But they usually won their playoff games at home (e.g. last year's Oakland Raiders or the 1990-93 Bills). This being the NFL, there are no sure things. But I expect the Patriots can stop the Colts defense at least half the time. That means they should win if they can score on half their possessions -- which I believe they can do against a porous Colt defense. This is another chance to answer the "irresistible force versus immovable
object" question once again. And as has been the case over the years, I expect the immovable Patriots defense to win.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Great defense beats great offense. Just ask the 2002 Raiders, the 2001 Rams, the 2000 Giants, the 1990-93 Bills, the 1987-88 Broncos, the... well, you get the picture."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-0!

How to Stay Warm (1/12/2004)

Oh, and for those of you curious as to how I stayed warm, here's a photo of what I wore to the game.

- Scott

PS. 1-0!

Patriots 17, Titans 14 (1/10/2004)

Now that, boys and girls, was a great football game. The best I've seen all year, though if you like offense, you probably liked the 38-34 win over the Colts in November. Personally, I like a little more defense, so I prefer the 17-14 win over the Titans on Saturday. (This was, in fact, a great weekend on the gridiron - with four games decided by an average of five points.) The winning streak stands at 13 games, and one more win over the Colts to reach the Super Bowl for the second time in three years.

The defense remains largely responsible for the entire streak, and they did most of the heavy lifting this week, too. The defensive line did a nice job holding Eddie George to 48 yards and they pestered Steve McNair enough to keep him at 200 yards passing while sacking him three times. Willie McGinest was the defensive star, with eight tackles and two sacks, and he and Rodney Harrison were around McNair all day. Derek Mason (their best receiver) accounted for 90 of those passing yards, mostly when he found himself covered by safety Eugene Wilson - a mismatch the Patriots took too long to correct. The Tennessee receivers are big and they thrived on the physical play of the Patriot corners, and they made some fantastic catches along the sideline on their last drive. Neither Ty Law nor Tyrone Poole distinguished themselves with great plays, though not many passes were completed against Law. Aside from the damage Mason inflicted, most of the passing yards came on excellent catches through tight coverage. Harrison had the game's lone interception, which led to the team's second touchdown, and he and Tedy Bruschi forced the Titans into crucial penalties on their last drive. Tedy Bruschi had an interception called back because of an offensive penalty -- and he would have returned it for a touchdown and a 21-7 lead, and a totally different game. In fact, the Titans twice committed penalties that helped them, but overall they had far too many for a playoff game. The ended the day with nine penalties and at least three others that the Patriots declined.

The Pats offense didn't perform as well as I expected, and I give the Titans some of the credit for that. The Patriots scored an opening-drive touchdown for the fourth game in a row, a 41-yard pass to Bethel Johnson, and followed that up with an opportunistic TD in the second quarter. Antowain Smith ran very well (16 carries, 69 yards and a touchdown), and the Pats surprisingly out gained the Titans 96 yards to 84 on the ground. The offensive line deserves a lot of praise, not only for their run blocking but for their stellar pass protection - can't do much better than zero sacks. Tom Brady completed passes to 10 different receivers, and even though his completion percentage was barely above 50%, he never turned the ball over. That was left to Daniel Graham, who had a horrible day. He dropped a crucial third down pass, lost a fumble, then dropped back-to-back passes on second and third down as the clock was winding down toward four minutes to play. Had he caught either of them, the Pats could have run more time off the clock and gone for a touchdown rather than a field goal. To compensate for Graham's bad day, the team got important contributions to the passing game from David Givens, Christian Fauria, Bethel Johnson, Troy Brown (a clutch fourth-down reception), and Kevin Faulk. But Graham better get his head on straight for the next game. The Patriots can't afford to miss scoring opportunities against the Colts.

Special teams were very inconsistent. Some have come to expect the worst of Ken Walter, and his 27-yard average leaves a lot to be desired. But Craig Hentrich (the Titans's punter) was even worse, with one kick of 14 yards and a poor kick that gave the Pats a short field on their game-winning drive. Given that Hentrich led the league in punting but still had trouble in the poor conditions, I can cut Ken Walter a little slack. What cannot be excused was the poor kickoff coverage. The Patriots kicked off four times, and twice they lost outside containment - both times leading to great field position for the Titans. Bethel Johnson and Patrick Pass were the guilty parties, and they'll need to stay disciplined in the next game or it could be trouble. (Note: in both cases, the special teams coach, Brad Seely, took the player aside for a little chat, so I think the message got through.) In addition, Adam Vinatieri missed a 44-yarder, and the Patriots got nothing from their punt- and kickoff-return teams - including a punt Troy Brown should have caught that ended up being downed at the Patriots 5 yard line. On the positive side, Richard Seymour blocked the Titans's only field goal attempt, and Adam did hit the 46-yard game winner. And they should fare better against the Colts because their special teams aren't as good as Tennessee's. But I still had higher expectations for this game.

So it was a lot of fun if you like defense and close games. If you like scoring, the Kansas City/Indianapolis game was right up your alley. The Pats didn't perform as well as I thought they would coming out of the bye, but as is the case every game (for the last 13), they minimized mistakes and did enough to win. They ran for 3.6 yards a carry, had only one turnover, no interceptions, committed only 3 penalties (14 yards), and Tom Brady wasn't sacked all night. To win against Indy, they will have to capitalize on every offensive opportunity that presents itself. The Colts can probably score at least half the time they get the ball against the Patriot defense, which means the Pats will have to score more than half the time they get the ball. But Indy's defense is easily the worst one still in the playoffs, and good defense usually beats good offense in the playoffs; so it should be interesting.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "The Colts look great, but remember the conditions for their games. One game in their dome and the other in 50-degree weather against a really, really bad defense. Their punter should get some work this Sunday in frosty Foxboro, and those small receivers probably won't hold up as well as the Tennessee receivers did in the sub-zero wind-chill. Besides, they're 1-3 in AFC Championship games, and the Pats are 3-0."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 1-0!

Patriots vs. Titans Preview (1/7/2004)

In the national media build-up to Saturday's Patriots game, it seems like the Titans somehow became the #1 seed with the best record in the NFL this year. Now it's the "massive Tennessee defensive line" that will man-handle the Patriots offense; it's Tennessee's "wounded warriors" Steve McNair and Eddie George who will control the clock and the game; it's Tennessee's "dominating" special teams and great kickers who will mean the difference if the game is close. Don't believe it for a minute.

This is a very common phenomenon. In fact, it's repeated every year. The "experts" always pump-up teams that win their first-round playoff games. Somehow, they forget that the first and second seeds got bye weeks because they were the better teams, and they predict upsets or very close games. There are two main reasons for this. First, the higher seeds did not play last weekend, but the other teams did; and a win is always more impressive than no game at all. In the "what have you done for me lately" world of sports, the team that won is the "hot" team, and the team that rested for a week somehow doesn't look as impressive. Second, most of the experts have a vested interest in getting you to watch the games. I wouldn't expect the ESPN, Fox or CBS experts to predict blowout wins because people might not watch; and that's bad for business.

The Titans benefit from this phenomenon. But the really over-hyped team is the new media darlings, the Indianapolis Colts. Every year, one team is a blowout winner the first weekend of the playoffs, and the media make them the trendy pick to go to the Super Bowl. Trouble is, it almost never happens. The next week, the media darling has to go on the road and play a team that had a week off and a better record, and the media darling almost never prevails. New York Jets of 2002, who beat the Colts 41-0 then lost to Oakland 30-10. The year before, Baltimore beat Miami 20-3 then lost to 27-10 to Pittsburgh. The year before that, Philly beat Tampa Bay 21-3 then lost to the New York Giants 20-10. Each of those teams became the media favorite when they beat up on teams they were supposed to beat up on; but things changed when they went up against superior teams in the next round. Kansas City hasn't played well lately, so this year's game could be close, but I fully expect the Colts to lose this weekend.

With all that said, here are some thoughts on Saturday night's Patriots game.

The fact that Tennessee was #1 versus the run is irrelevant to this game.

The Patriots were near the bottom of the league in rushing yards and make no bones about it. (Don't be fooled by how the Pats ran the ball in their last two games. The Jets are awful against the run, and the Bills quit playing after the first series.) Even though they ran well against the Titans earlier this year, the Pats will use short passes to compensate for the lack of running. Tennessee has undoubtedly practiced against the quick passes, but so has every other team the Pats played and they still finished 14-2.

The Patriots will have to be aware of Titans defensive lineman Jevon Kerse. He is a speed rusher with a long arms and great leaping ability and could cause problems with the short passing game -- so the Pats would be well advised not to throw too many quick-hit passes to his side of the field. I expect the Pats to go deep a few times to loosen the Titan defense so they can run the ball a little bit. If it isn't too windy, look for Bethel Johnson or David Givens early. And given the extra week of practice they had, look for improved timing in the short-passing game and a few trick plays they haven't shown all year.

The Patriots defense against the Titans offense is a significant advantage for the Patriots. To refer back to what I said a few paragraphs ago, the press has somehow forgotten that the Patriots led the lead in fewest points allowed, defensive touchdowns, and shutouts. This isn't a really good defense, it's a great defense -- especially at home. They were missing five or six starters in the first Titans game. But since that time, they've played six home games and given up the following point totals: 6, 3, 0, 0, 13, 0. That's about 4 points a game. Now, those teams weren't as good offensively as the Titans are, but even if you assume they can score equal to the most they Pats gave up in those games (13), that means the Patriots only have to score 14 points to win. I just can't see Tenesssee loading up on points against a Patriots defense that is one of the five best NFL defenses I've ever seen. Eddie George didn't even run for his season average in the first game, and we were missing half our defensive line and half our starting linebackers. Ted Washington and Richard Seymour give the Pats great run-stopping and a solid pass rush without the blitz. They've got two shut-down corners and a ton of speed in their punishing secondary. And their linebackers are among the most flexible in the league -- they can cover the middle on pass plays, hit hard to stuff the run, or rush the passer.

As for special teams, with Troy Brown and Bethel Johnson, the Patriots have the most dangerous kick return tandem in the league. The Tennessee punt return team did pretty well this year, but their kickoff returns are nothing special. The Patriot kick coverage teams are vastly improved over last year, and even with their punting woes, they're near the top of the league in kicks downed inside the 20. And in the placekicking world, Gary Anderson is fine, but I doubt he could kick a 45-yarder in the absolute freezing cold he'll face Saturday. Adam Vinatieri had a bit of a subpar season, and one would hope he worked all bye week to get his timing and rhythm back. But no one in NFL history made more clutch playoff kicks than he did in 2001 -- when the going get tough and you need those points, there's no one else you'd rather have.

As for coaching and intangibles, I see them mostly favoring the Patriots.

Tennessee went on the road last week for a big emotional win in Baltimore.
They're on the road again this week, in an even colder environment, against a much better team that had a week to heal, with a more raucus crowd, and they are banged up. Add to all that the Patriots coaching staff and the confusion they cause in their opponents with only a week to prepare; now imagine what they'll do with two weeks (in fact, they've won 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week) -- and you've got to feel pretty good about their chances. The coaches always keep the team focussed on the game at hand, and with two weeks between games, they will come out fired up and ready to go.

Because of all that, I just can't picture a way the Titans can win this one.
I don't usually go for the overwhelming "can't lose" stuff, but this seems like a double-digit win for the Patriots. I won't predict the score, but I think late turnovers could make this a 14- or 17-point victory for the Pats. Of course, all the usual caveats apply: "any given Sunday," "whichever team plays better," "gotta win the turnover battle," and all that -- but this game just doesn't seem as close as the media might want it to be. But all in all, it should be a good game and I'm looking forward to it.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "I've heard all the blathering about how great the Titans played last week. But the Patriots earned their bye week because they are a better team than the Titans. Heck, the Titans only beat one playoff team all year -- the Panthers -- and they went 1-3 against playoff teams during the regular season. The Patriots went 5-0."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

2003 Regular Season Awards (1/5/2004)

Before we look ahead to the playoff game this Saturday, I'd like to take a little time to look back and recognize some of the integral parts that made up 2003's best team - your New England Patriots. The team seems to care less about individual honors than the feelings of their vanquished opponents, but that shouldn't stop us from praising those who contributed most to the team's dominating 14-2 record. As the Patriots reminded us all year, this is a team game, so all three phases of the game will be recognized.

The Offense

Most Valuable Offensive Player: Tom Brady Honorable Mention: Damien Woody

The Patriots won without Damien Woody, Antowain Smith, Deion Branch, Daniel Graham, and even Troy Brown, all of which leaves little doubt as to who makes this offense go. Tom Brady worked all off-season to improve his long passing, durability, and pocket presence, and it shows. He had more 50+ yard passes this year than the previous two combined. In 2002, there were lingering doubts about his health toward the end of the season, but not even a knee-shot from Lawyer Milloy could knock him out this year. And he's been more mobile in the pocket this year - just enough to buy that extra half-second to kill the opposition. No wonder he came in third in the NFL MVP voting.

Damien Woody was an All-Pro center who improved his game by moving to guard.
He was a standout blocker all year and helped hold together a line that had several injuries and position changes.

Most Improved Offensive Player: David Givens Honorable Mention: Damien Woody, Tom Brady, Daniel Graham

His statistics alone make this an obvious choice. He bettered his 2002 numbers in every important category: receptions from 9 to 34; total yards from 92 to 510; yards per catch from 10 to 15; and touchdowns from 1 to 6. But the numbers really don't do him justice. He made the tough catches over the middle, a last-second touchdown to win the Denver game, important catches to convert first downs, and in Troy Brown's absence, he became Brady's most dependable go-to guy. He's even a good downfield blocker. Toward the end of the year he'd landed the starting job alongside Brown - not bad for a seventh round pick.

Daniel Graham is still too inconsistent, but his run and pass blocking have been great and like Givens, he's improved in every offensive category from 2002. For details on the improvements made by Woody and Brady, see the offensive MVP section above.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Dan Koppen Honorable Mention: Bethel Johnson

Koppen is one of the dozen or so rookies who stepped in due to injury this season. When Damien Woody was out for the second game of the year, Koppen became the starting center and never gave the job back (Woody was moved to guard). And the Patriots started rolling, losing only once more after trouncing the Eagles in Koppen's debut. His poise and ability belied the fact that he was a rookie and a late fifth-round pick to boot, and he became an anchor on an offensive line that kept Tom Brady healthy all year. Without his stabilizing presence along the offensive line, the Patriots would never have reeled off twelve consecutive wins and we might never have known how much better Woody was at guard.

Bethel Johnson had some standout games (the Broncos and Colts games spring to mind), and his speed helped transform the Patriots offense from a "dink-and-dunk" short game to one that could score from anywhere on the field.

The Defense

Most Valuable Player Defensive Player: Richard Seymour Honorable Mention: Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Ty Law, Tyrone Poole

This is the closest contest of them all, with Seymour edging Harrison by the tip of his huge wingspan. What can I say about Richard that hasn't already been said? How about this. It's amazing that a defensive lineman had more passes defensed than the starting safety - but Seymour had ten to Eugene Wilson's nine. He also had eight sacks, a forced fumble, and a key blocked field goal to force overtime in Miami. All this while facing constant double-teaming and game plans designed to neutralize him. A monster year.

Harrison showed he had plenty left in the tank, despite the whispers from his former team, the Chargers. He collected three interceptions and made a ton of big hits among his 125 tackles, including 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Looks like he might have the same kind of "twilight of his career" that Roger Clemens did. Bruschi continues to be the heart of the defense (no slight to Lawyer Milloy, but he always was), notching 128 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 3 interceptions himself. And the two corners kept opposing wide receivers Ty-ed down all year - the only legit set of shut-down corners I saw all year.

Most Improved Defensive Player: Willie McGinest Honorable Mention: Mike Vrabel, Ty Law

Willie played like Willie again this year. The addition of Ted Washington and the switch to the 3-4 re-energize McGinest. His numbers are comparable to last year. But often being blocked by running backs or tight ends allowed him to be a much more disruptive force and to make impact plays at crucial times. In two important games toward the end of the year, he kept Miami quarterback Jay Fiedler on the run all day, and he made key stops against the Colts. At age 32, he can't be "The Man" on defense anymore, but he complimented the players around him so much better this season, he looks like he could go another five years.

Mike Vrabel made substantial improvement this year, and might have won the award if he didn't miss twice as many games as McGinest did. And Ty Law's numbers are better than last year (2 more INTs, 13 more passes defensed, and great run support) and the fact that he managed it with several lingering injuries is all the more impressive.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Eugene Wilson Honorable Mention: Asante Samuel

Drafted as a cornerback, Eugene Wilson started at safety in one of the most complex defenses in the NFL and turned in weekly performances that made everyone forget the Patriots Super Bowl-starting safety (Tebucky Jones - traded to New Orleans in the off-season). After a rocky start against the Bills, Wilson acquitted himself well, with the game against the Colts his only backward step. For the year, he snagged four interceptions, had nine passes defensed, and helped Rodney Harrison restore some attitude with punishing hits week after week.

I think Asante Samuel has a chance to be a great player in this league, if he could just get on the field (the two Tys are unlikely to relinquish much playing time). He played exceptionally well in the nickel package and was the NFL's Rookie of the Week in the first Jets game.

The Special Teams

Most Valuable Special Teams Player: Larry Izzo Honorable Mention: Bethel Johnson

It's difficult to assign this award if the team doesn't have a dominant kicker, because special teams often look like semi-organized chaos. But Larry Izzo was the special teams captain for a reason. The Patriots kick coverage and return teams were improved over last year, and the team counted on Izzo's intensity, leadership, and his plain old willingness to sacrifice his body to make the tackle. Every year there is only one special teams player designated for the Pro Bowl, and Larry has made it twice. And he continues to exemplify the "do whatever it takes" attitude needed to make an impact on special teams.

The Patriots needed all of Bethel Johnson's speed and his explosive burst to keep up with the Colts in their November showdown, and his impact was shown every time the opponent squib-kicked to avoid a big return.

Most Improved Special Teams Player: Ken Walter Honorable Mention: Je'Rod Cherry

I know what you're thinking: "Ken Walter almost single-handedly lost the Broncos game." Well, for all his woes this year, Ken kicked very well in all but three games (Denver, Dallas and Indy). He was probably the only NFL punter to get a game ball this year (against Cleveland), and in three games this year, he had at least 75% of his punts downed inside the opponent's 20 yard line (not to mention 9 of 13 punts since returning against Jacksonville). Additionally, he improved over his 2002 performance in several significant areas: percentage of kicks that went for touchbacks (from 13% down to 4%); percentage of kicks downed inside the 20 (from 27% to 33%); and the average punt return against him dropped almost a full yard. Deride if you like, but we probably lose the Cleveland game and the second Jets game if he doesn't perform well.

My choice of Je'Rod Cherry is based on the number of times he made a play to down a ball or keep it out of the end zone on kick coverage. A notable improvement over last season.

Special Teams Rookie of the Year: Bethel Johnson

No Honorable Mention because no one is even close. Bethel might well be the NFL special teams rookie of the year if the league had such an award. He leads the AFC in kickoff return average, and it only took three games before teams started kicking away from him, often giving the Pats a short field to keep the ball away from Bethel. He also had two huge returns in the Colts game (one for a touchdown, one to set up the winning touchdown). With Troy Brown returning punts, the Patriots might have the most dangerous return tandem in the NFL.

Well, that's about it. I'll send something along at mid-week with info on this weekend's game. Hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed watching the team this year.

Happy New Year,

- Scott

PS. 0-0!

Patriots 31, Bills 0 (12/27/2003)

Another week, another weak opponent. That's four games in a row where the other team had no realistic chance to win the game before it even started. In my first email of the year, I said: "The second half of the season? Well, if [the Patriots] can beat the Jets on 12/20, they could run the table." The Jets got injured and their playoff hopes were dashed long before December, and that just made the job easier.

The Pats waxed the Bills 31-0, in their second-best performance of the year (I think their win in Philadelphia was a little bit better). And in doing so, they secured home field throughout the AFC playoffs, so if they keep winning, their next road game will be Super Bowl XXXVIII in Houston. They finished an impressive regular season at 14-2, went 8-0 at home, and became only the fourth team in NFL history to win 12 consecutive regular season games. (Note: the other three won the Super Bowl - info courtesy of the CBS broadcast.)

Like the Bills 31-0 victory over the Patriots in Week 1, this game wasn't as close as the score indicated. The Pats offense came out in the no-huddle-no-running-back offense, and scored a first-drive TD for the third game in a row - then followed it up with touchdowns on two of the next three drives. Tom Brady threw touchdown passes to four different receivers in the first half, Antowain Smith averaged 4.9 yards a carry, and David Givens made enough clutch catches to earn "most improved" status (7 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown).

The only problems on offense were watching Tom Brady and Damien Woody limp off the field. Brady came back later and was reportedly fine after the game. No report on Woody's condition; but the good news is that his replacement, Russ Hochstein, played pretty well, especially in the running game. I hope Woody is okay, but I've got nothing to complain about - entering the playoffs, the Patriots are one of the healthiest teams.

Special teams played a bit up and down. The kick coverage was great, except for Buffalo's return to the Pats 18 yard line. And Adam missed a 24 yard field goal, though he made one later to atone. And Ken Walter continued his post-exile improvement - averaging 43 yard a kick for the game and putting 9 of 13 punts inside the 20 yard line since he returned. I guess all he needed was some time off. And speaking of that, I hope the Pats spend their bye week working on field goals. They need to do something to regain their timing because missed scoring opportunities in the playoffs can be the difference between advancing and going home.

Last and by no means least, the defense simply overwhelmed the Bills. Last year's Bills thrived on long passes. But those days are long gone, as is a lot of their offensive talent. Their longest pass on Saturday was 28 yards and some longer attempts were knocked away or off target. When Buffalo tried short passes, they were tipped at the line, picked off, or the receiver was tackled for a short gain. They ran for 81 yards (versus 131 for the Pats), and simply couldn't get anything going. Their best scoring opportunity came when they returned the second-half kickoff to the Pats 18. A sack, a pass for a loss, and two penalties later, and they'd worked their way out of field goal range. In fact, both times they started with the ball in Patriots territory, they went for it on fourth down and failed.

The defensive stars of the game were some of the usual suspects: Tedy Bruschi, Tyrone Poole, and Rodney Harrison. The one newcomer to the list was Larry Izzo, who entered the game to give Bruschi a "curtain call" and delivered some punishing hits over the middle and made a great play on his interception that sealed the shutout. The defensive line didn't do much that was spectacular, but they slowed the Bills running game as a unit and kept the pressure on Bledsoe without much blitzing. The defense got two fumbles, two interceptions, and four sacks. All in a day's work for the best defense in the NFL, I suppose.

Oh, and that last line is official. Tampa Bay gave up 33 points, and that, coupled with the Patriots shutout, means the Pats gave up the fewest points in the league this year - a franchise first, along with their first season above 11 wins (they got 14), their first 8-0 home record, and their first #1 seeding in the playoffs. They also had three home shutouts, and gave up almost half their home points in one game (30 against the Titans). But perhaps the most impressive defensive stat (in my opinion) is that only twice this year did the Patriots allow their opponents to rush for more yards than their season averages (Washington and their second game against the Jets). On the season, the Patriots opponents gained almost 115 yards per game against other teams, but only 89 against the Pats - that's over 20% less yardage. A very impressive season, indeed.

So, where does that leave us? Well, we've got next week off to rest and prepare, then at least one home game the weekend after that. If they win, they'll be one home win away from the Super Bowl, which is all you can ask for. As Bill Belichick said, "This is the second season now, and everyone's 0-0." I would add that only one team will finish the playoffs undefeated - they call them the World Champions; and with a season like this, I'll be disappointed with anything less. (I guess your expectations rise when the team recently won a Super Bowl and won more games than anyone else in the NFL.) But for now, it's watch and wait and see which team will be headed our way January 10 or 11.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Of the AFC playoff teams, the Pats have already beaten Denver, Indy, and Tennessee. Kansas city is 4-3 in their last seven games, and Baltimore only runs the ball and the Pats always stop the run. There just isn't anyone in the AFC that scares me."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 14-2!

Patriots 21, Jets 16 (12/20/2003)

With his team riding high four weeks ago, Bill Belichick said to his players: “You want to be compared to the 2001 team? Okay. They won nine games after Thanksgiving, you haven’t won any.” In the four games since then, the Patriots have ten interceptions (two returned for TDs); they controlled Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Fred Taylor, and Curtis Martin in succession; they won in a dome, in two snowstorms, and against a divisional opponent on the road; and they stand alone atop the NFL with a 13-2 record. Ask the Colts, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Jets, and they’ll probably tell you the team responded pretty well to that challenge.

The Pats won another hard-fought divisional road game, toppling the Jets 21-16 in New York. Your local NFL entry has won 11 consecutive games (all by less than 14 points – an NFL record), and combined with losses by the Chiefs and Colts, the Patriots need only a tie next week against Buffalo to clinch home field throughout the AFC playoffs. And no team in their right mind wants to travel to Foxboro in January. Heck, I barely want to go there myself.

The offense started quickly again this week, scoring on the opening drive for the second game in a row (this time, on the first play) – after Tedy Bruschi’s INT gave them a short field. Two factors allowed Tom Brady to be cool and efficient on the day (and the wind-chill wasn’t one of them): the offensive line did a brilliant job protecting him (no sacks in 26 pass attempts); and the running game made it’s year-end return (133 yards on 24 carries). Antowain Smith became the first Patriots rusher to crack the 100 yard mark this year, averaging almost 7 yards a carry and prompting some to float “The Mothball Theory” – i.e. that they let Smith rest all year so he’d be rested for the playoffs. Preposterous, but amusing, I suppose.

The offensive line gets special mention for playing a fantastic game: Matt Light, Damien Woody, Dan Koppen, Joe Andruzzi, and Tom Ashbook are the names you never hear. But any time you average 5.5 yards a rush and give up no sacks, you have to give the O-line credit. They even minimized their false-start penalties with the hostile crowd making it tough. The receiving corps did a pretty good job, although almost everyone had at least one dropped pass. Daniel Graham, Deion Branch, and Kevin Faulk had the most critical drops, costing the Pats first downs when they needed them. Combined with some inopportune penalties, the dropped passes were largely responsible for their three-for-eleven third-down conversion rate. Honestly, the Jets defense just didn’t have much to do with it – just poor execution by the offense.

Fortunately for the Patriots, this game was all about defense. And man, is our defense scary. They intercepted Chad Pennington’s first pass, and kept doing it until the end of the game, finishing with five picks (one returned for a touchdown by Willie McGinest) against a quarterback who’d never had more than two in any NFL game. They sacked Pennington four times and harassed him a whole lot more, and if not for a near-INT that fell into the hands of a Jet receiver, the game wouldn’t have been as close as it was. They kept Curtis Martin under control (his longest run was 8 yards), and stopped the short slant patterns the Jets love – once again, taking the opposition out of what they like to do.

Willie McGinest, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, and Ty Law get specific praise from me this week (though I’m sure they don’t really care). Vrabel, Harrison, Bruschi and McGinest played monster games, hitting everything that moved and getting three of the team’s INTs. Perhaps they were inspired by being snubbed in the Pro Bowl balloting, but something got into those guys and they are playing mean. Ty made a key open-field tackle of Curtis Martin, and had excellent coverage on two fade routes into the end zone (one of which, he picked off). Seymour was Seymour. “Third year player going to his second Pro Bowl” says about all you need to know about him. He has gotten better as the year has progressed, and with Ted Washington back to take on extra blockers, Richard will be a big key to the Pats playoff push.

The Patriots kick coverage was very good, allowing only one punt return and not much on the kickoffs – although they had Vinatieri trying some awkward kicks into the wind, which led to decent field position for the Jets. It’s nice to have Troy Brown returning punts, and with Bethel Johnson on kickoff returns, their special teams are almost as dangerous as they were in 2001.

And on that point, I’m starting to feel about this team the same way I felt about the 2001 Patriots. When I think about playing any other team in the NFL, I don’t fear a Patriots loss. In fact, aside from the Rams and Chiefs, the Patriots have beaten every high seed in the playoffs (Titans, Colts, Cowboys, and Eagles). And the Chiefs are 3-3 in their last six games and haven’t stopped the run in two months. Some have called the Patriots lucky because they’ve won so many close games. But the way I read the season is that they just keep making plays until the other team makes a critical mistake – and that the Patriots have capitalized on those mistakes. That’s not luck; that’s good, sound football. The kind that sometimes leads to special seasons.

So where does all that leave us? Well, when we destroy the Bills (and I’ve been telling everyone for 10 weeks that we will), we’ll have a 14-2 record, a first round bye, and home field throughout the AFC playoffs. (Note: this is the NFL, they could always possibly lose. I just don’t see it this week.) And that’s all you can ask for. You play the regular season hoping you can be in that position, and the Patriots can get there with a win or a tie. I don’t expect them to lose focus now, so put it in stone – the Patriots will win on Saturday and you’ll be looking for me in the stands the second weekend of the playoffs.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: “Even though they gave up 31 points on opening day, the Patriots have a chance to give up the fewest points in the league this year. They’re just behind Tampa (238 to 231), and the Bucs have to play a motivated Titans team on the road while we’ve got the Bills at home. Not bad given how they started the year.”

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 13-2!!!!!

Patriots 27, Jaguars 13 (12/14/2003)

Well, the streak is over... Not the winning streak, mind you, but the "consecutive home games without giving up a touchdown" streak. Sigh... I guess we'll all have to move on somehow. As you no doubt heard, the Patriots continued their winning ways yesterday, beating up on the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-13 in the cold and snow in Foxboro. Their 10-game winning streak is the best in franchise history (as is their 12 regular season wins), and one more win will tie them with Kansas City for the longest string of wins in the NFL this year. They maintained their first seed in the AFC and didn't report any major injuries (a big plus given the conditions yesterday).

The Patriots scored a touchdown on their first drive of the game (first time this year), and matched two Jacksonville field goals with two of their own in the first half. It could easily have been 17-6 or 21-6 at the half, if the Pats executed better in the red zone (inside the Jax 20 yard line), but they suffered from some uninspired play-calling one one drive and Larry Centers dropped an easy TD on the other. Daniel Graham continues to play better, with 5 cathes for 69 yards and one TD, David Givens made some tough, clutch catches (ended the day with 5 for 65 yards), and Dedric Ward did to the Jags what he used to do to us -- convert crucial third downs with big-time catches. But the real receiver story of the day was the return of Troy Brown. After four or five weeks off, he came back at full steam, 4 catches for 43 yards and he returned punts (5 returns with a 10-yard average). His TD early in the fourth quarter put the Jags 14 points behind and helped seal the victory. And it was just good to see him back in the game. Now, if we could just get that new guy, Larry Centers to catch the ball, we might really have something. (Just kidding, Larry Centers dropped a few yesterday, but he's got more catches than any running back in NFL history.)

Tom Brady played extremely well, especially given the conditions: 22 for 34, 228 yards and two touchdowns. With the wind, cold and snow, that was a stellar performance, and it was set up by the very good pass protection he had all day and just enough running to keep the defense honest.
Jacksonville has a very physical front seven on defense, and sometimes they man-handled the the Pats offensive line. But for the most part, the O-line held their own and gave Brady enough time to work through his defensive reads and find the open man (Graham was at least the third read on his touchdown play). Antowain Smith's day was very up and down, 14 rushes for 39 yards and a touchdown -- but a critical fourth-quarter fumble when the Patriots were driving to finish off the Jags. Kevin Faulk held onto the ball, but didn't fare much better running. All told, the Pats got less than 80 yards on the ground, which isn't bad considering the Jax defense. But someday, this might come back to haunt them -- let's just hope it isn't this year.

As for the defense, I hate to sound like a broken record, but they played another great game. Richard Seymour was benched for the first quarter and played like an angry man the rest of the game -- much to the detriment of Jacksonville. Now if gets back to being the player who never takes a stupid penalty, we'll be all set. The Jags had three or four big passing plays and not much else, mostly because of the pressure and some nice plays by the defensive backs. Seymour, Mike Vrabel, and Willie McGinest harrassed Byron Leftwich (the Jags QB) all day, and they also stopped enough running plays for short yardage that the Jags couldn't control the game on the ground either. The Pats let Jacksonville hang around in the game, with only a seven-point lead into the fourth quarter. But once Troy Brown put the Pats up by 14, the Jags had to take more risks on offense. The results were predictable -- two Tyrone Poole interceptions and another win for the Patriots.

They really are masters of getting the other team out of their comfort zone and making them take chances they don't really want to take. And young quarterbacks always seem to make the crucial mistakes against this defense, which seems to be more by design than by accident. Quincy Carter of Dallas, Kelly Holcomb of Cleveland, Danny Kannel of Denver, and Leftwich yesterday all make the fatal mistake to lose the game or failed to make the big play to win it when they played the Patriots. It's also been the same with running backs. Denver's Clinton Portis, Miami's Ricky Williams, Indy's Edgerrin James, Dallas's Troy Hambrick, Tennessee's Eddie George, and Jacksonville's Fred Taylor were all riding high before playing New England; but all of them failed to match their season averages against the Patriots and their teams lost. Again, it's no accident, just good team defense, great speed at linebacker and in the secondary, and a fundamental philosophy not to let the other team beat you doing what they like to do.

Just a quick word about the Patriots special teams. Overall, I'm very impressed by their kick coverage teams and by their ability to get it done in the worst conditions. In what turned out to be a field-position type of game, they got solid kicking from prodigal punter, Ken Walter, and Adam Vinatieri outkicked his opposite number, Seth Marler, by a heafty margin. Without Lonnie Paxton, the Patriots plugged in a new long-snapper and the special teams just kept on cranking along -- although, without Lonnie, there were no snow angels yesterday :( And with Troy Brown back returning punts and Bethel Johnson on kickoffs (he was inactive yesterday), the special teams could be poised to be as good as it was during the Super Bowl run two years ago.

So, where does this leave us. Well, if we win the rest of our games, we will have home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. One loss and we'd need KC to lose their last two and I don't think we want to count on that. Indy is also a game behind us, and even though we'd win the head-to-head tiebreaker over them, if we ended up tied with both KC and Indy, we'd lose the three-way tiebreaker to both teams -- meaning no week off before the playoffs and two road games to get to the Super Bowl. This week's contest with the Jets is our biggest challenge left in the regular season. NY has a good team and they always play better at the end of the year. Curtis Martin is running well (although I expect that will stop versus the Pats -- as it has for so many other running backs), and with Chad Pennington back, the Jets are a much more dangerous team than they were when we beat them by only 7 points at home early in the year. Should be interesting.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Since the Patriots use their short passing game to replace their non-existent running attack, they're bound to have more injured receivers. They've done a great job rotating receivers on and off the inactive list, but they really need Daniel Graham to continue to improve and Larry Centers to catch the ball because that will take a lot of pressure of the wideouts running those short patterns."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 12-2!

Patriots 12, Dolphins 0 (12/7/2003)

You know, shutting out the Cowboys was one thing, but keeping the Dolphins and all their offensive talent off the scoreboard is even more impressive. The Patriots defense came up big again this week, and on the strength of that defense, they are 11-2, Eastern Division Champions (guaranteed at least one home playoff game), and the #1 seed in the AFC (with the Kansas City loss to Denver that I know you all hoped and prayed for).

Pardon me while I take two paragraphs to rant about the Dolphins. This is the fourth consecutive year the Dolphins were supposed to prove they could win in cold climate late in the year, and they don't look likely to improve on the past three (they've finished the last three years with two wins and two losses each year). Ricky Williams is always running with confidence until he faces a decent running defense. And with the three Teds (Washington, Johnson, and Bruschi) and Rodney Harrison, the Patriots run defense is a lot better than decent. They are dominant, and showed it again Sunday.

Sure, the weather was frightful but that's supposed to mean more emphasis on running. Well, Ricky finished with 68 yards and a 2.7 yards-per-carry average And with Jay Fiedler's 13-of-31 for 111 yards and two INTs (and a paltry 1.8 yards per pass attempt), it becomes obvious why they bageled the scoreboard. I'm amazed they were 4-18 in third-down conversions, because I can't recally any conversions at all. The Dolphins didn't have a single "goal to go" situation and their only trip inside the Pats 20 ended with a Fiedler fumble. Oh, and special mention goes to the Dolphin receivers, who must have dropped eight or ten catchable passes. Way to shake off those elements, guys.

Now that the ranting is over, on to the good stuff. Rodney Harrison was an absolute monster on Sunday. He led the team with 12 tackles, defensed at least three passes, and had a critical sack that caused the Fiedler fumble and shifted momentum to our favor. The Pats didn't play as much tight coverage as I thought they would, choosing instead to attack the line to stop Miami's running game while playing a zone behind the pass rush. Worked pretty well. And later in the game, the Pats started bringing in the bigger guys on first down to bottle things up even more. And the Dolphins rarely if ever changed to passing plays in the face of a stacked deck against the run. They'd obviously decided Fiedler wasn't going to win it, and thought Ricky was their only hope. In fact, they might have been right. When Fiedler finally tried to win it, he gave the Patriots their only TD when he threw it right to Tedy Bruschi who returned it for six points.

With such a dominant defensive performance, you might expect a bigger margin of victory. But the Dolphin defense did just about the things same to the Patriots. They covered well and stuffed the run most of the day. But the Pats offense avoided what the Dolphins offense couldn't - the big turnover. Tom Brady was once again Mr. Efficient, throwing no interceptions in 31 attempts (and there weren't any really close calls either). He made good decisions and his three sacks went for only 13 yards, very important in a field position type of game (Jay Fiedler was sacked 5 times for 48 yards). There were some dropped passes, and more importantly, there were those crucial, timely throw-aways when nothing was open. The Patriot offense never really got untracked, but they didn't get undone the way the Dolphin offense did, and that was good enough to win.

Richard Seymour played a bit in the offensive backfield, taking the place of the injured Dan Klecko. The results were mixed, with one first down, two runs stuffed, and one illegal motion call. Deion Branch had some critical catches down the stretch to change our field position game, and Antowain Smith made some clutch hard-nosed runs to put the game on ice (so to speak).
Those famous Patriot screen passes and quick outs to the wide receivers were stymied by the team speed and great preparation of the Dolphins defense. I don't recall a single screen gaining positive yardage, and the quick outs were mostly incomplete or short gains. This really hurt the Patriots on third down, where they were only 5-18 for the game. If they play deep into the playoffs without improving their running game, you can look for more games like this because everyone in the playoffs will have good defensive speed. Let's just hope everyone is as offensively inept as the Dolphins - then we'll be fine.

On special teams, Bethel Johnson didn't get to return any kickoffs. Miami only kicked off once, and it went to Kevin Faulk. The new punter did a good job, only one shank job and some nice kicks into the wind. The Pats downed five kicks inside the 20 yard line, and one of those was Brady's punt on a fourth-down fake (perhaps the play of the game - until Bruschi's TD!). Adam got another one in the snow, though he missed one later on, so we can't conclude much about the new holder situation. Nothing spectactular here, just some good solid play by the coverage teams and a decent job by the new punter (Brooks Barnard, #8 on your scorecard).

So, where does this leave us? Well, 11-2 with a guaranteed home playoff game and (at present) the Number One seed in the AFC ain't bad. We play another Florida team next week (a quick "thank you" to the schedule makers). Jacksonville is coming off a big win against a division opponent, 27-0 over Houston. This couldn't be better for the Pats, because Jax has won only four games all year, and will likely have a letdown against a non-divisional team on the road in the cold a week after they had a big divisional win. No guarantees - after all, that's why we watch the games - but it looks good for the Pats.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Man, is Dave Wannstedt in trouble. If he doesn't win a playoff game, he's probably gone, and if the season ended today, the Dolphins wouldn't even be in the playoffs. And he's gotta play a hot Philly team, then go on the road to play Buffalo in the freezing cold, and then they've go the Jets at home, where NY always plays them tough. I mean, they've got a shot to lose all three and finish the year at .500, never mind making the playoffs." (Note: Dave Wannstedt is the Head Coach of the Dolphins.)

Keep the faith,

- Scott

Patriots 38, Colts 34 (11/30/2003)

Now that was a great football game. Great offense, great special teams plays, and enough defense to make it count at the end. At 10-2, the Pats win the division with a win Sunday against the Dolphins, they hold a 2-game lead over Indy and a 1.5-game lead over Tennessee for the second seed in the playoffs, and all (except the punting, the lack of a running game, and Troy Brown's injury status) is well with the team. They've never been 10-2 before, and I just don't know how to act. But I'll tell you that I'll be wearing a smile from 10:00 - 2:00 (a little better than ear-to-ear) all day.

This one had shootout written all over it from the start. 18 minutes into the game, the Pats were sitting on a 17-0 lead, but you knew Manning and company wouldn't stay down for long and they didn't. They made three significant runs at the Patrtios and each time the home town crew made the plays needed to repel the advance. The first one was Bethel Johnson's kickoff return for TD at the end of the half, putting the Pats back up by two scores at 24-10. The second was Johnson's 67-yard kickoff return after the Colts had tied it at 31 points apiece, setting up the winning TD pass to Deion Branch. The third was the four-play goal-line stand to end the game, with Willie McGinest grabbing the headlines by grabbing Edgerrin James on fourth down to seal it. However, that final series was a total team effort, with the interior of the Patriots defense stuffing three runs from inside the 2 yard line.

Tom Brady started out on fire, cooled off, then came back to life when it counted to score the winning TD. The Pats continue to be haunted by their lack of a running game, and that could bite them eventually -- although it hasn't yet. It's unusual to see a team win with defense and a controlled passing attack, but somehow they keep doing it week after week. One can only wonder what the Pats would be doing if they had a great runner in addition to all their passing weapons. (As an aside: when the "experts" talk about the great quarterbacks in the league, it's always Manning, Bledsoe, McNair, McNabb, Favre -- and almost never Brady. However, one thing all those other QBs have in common is an excellent running game to take the pressure off their passing game. Give Brady that and you might hear his name mentioned with the other elites in the league, especially now that he's shown he can throw the deep ball.) But for all the passing the Pats did, the protection was decent (only two sacks) and they had a pretty good third-down conversion rate (54%). Not bad considering they were missing Troy Brown and David Patten -- their starters from the beginning of the season.

Defensively, I think the Pats played very well considering who they were playing. I doubt they would have given up 3 TDs in 6 minutes if the offense hadn't provided the Colts with a short field twice and if the Colts didn't have so many good players. Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, and Marcus Pollard are the real deal, and if you give them a short field, they'll eat you alive. However, the run defense continues to improve with the two Teds (Washington and Johnson) back in the game. And for all his experience and talent, Manning was clearly frustrated and confused at times, and aside from the three quick touchdowns near the end of the 3rd quarter, he wasn't really in sync most of the game. He had one INT, and could easily have had two more. But overall, I think the Colts finally exposed some of the young Patriots defenders, getting Eugene Wilson and Asante Samuel out of position a few times and drawing a couple of offsides penalties against our over-agressive defensive line. The up side of that is that no team on our remaining schedule has the offensive talent to exploit those gaps in our defense the way the Colts did. The down side is that the teams in the playoffs probably will.

But for all that, the Patriots special teams might have won them the game.
Late in the second quarter, the Colts got back to 17-10, and they were due to get the opening kickoff of the second half. But Bethel Johnson's return made it a two-score game again and allowed the Patriots to feel a bit more comfortable going into the locker room. Once the Colts came all the way back to tie it, Johnson came through again -- returning a kick 67 yards to give the Patriots a chance to go up again. Both times, special teams were instrumental in breaking the momentum, and without those plays, the Colts could have come back to rout the Patriots. But as they say, great teams make big plays when they need them, and even though it's a different player each week, the Patriots live that saying every week.

So where do we go from here? Well, the Pats are 10-2, and as I've been saying all season, 10 wins gets you in the playoffs. So congratulations to them on getting in. You now know (based on last week's Water-cooler Wisdom) that if they beat Miami this week, the Patriots are division champs and that guarantees they will host a playoff game. (Note: I'm sending in my playoff ticket invoice this week -- woo-hoo!!) More importantly, they are now in the driver's seat for the second seed in the playoffs, which would mean a week off and a home game the second week of the playoffs. Because they beat the Colts and Titans, for all intents the Patriots hold a 2-game lead over Indy and at 1.5-game lead over Tennessee for that second playoff spot. If you've got your eye on that first spot, then hope Kansas City loses to the Broncos next week. If not, the Patriots will have to finish a game ahead of KC to get that first spot because the Chiefs will have a better conference record. If they lose to the Broncos, then the Pats could potentially tie them in conference record and then it would come down to common opponents (a tie right now), and the Patriots would have to hope to get to the strength of schedule tie-breaker where they have a decided advantage.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Willie McGinest might get all the glory, but Ted Washington was instrumental in three of the four goal-line plays at the end of the game. He blew through his blocker on second down and fourth down, and forced James outside on first down. The Pats run defense improves whenever Ted is in the game."

Keep the faith,

- Scott

Patriots 23, Texans 20 (11/23/2003)

A pretty exciting game -- though not particularly well-played -- and a very exciting outcome. The Patriots squeaked one out in Houston, heading home with a 23-20 overtime victory despite playing their worst game of the year. Inopportune penalties, Adam Vinatieri's first indoor missed field goal, a blocked punt, a blocked field goal, and two interceptions (that could easily have been three) and a fumble by Brady. Yet they won, Brady is 7-0 in overtime, the team is 9-2 -- best start in franchise history -- and if they win the next two games (Indianapolis and Miami), they win the division. Couldn't ask for much more than that.

The defense played very well, with Ted Washington's return paying immediate dividends. It's obvious that with Mount Ted in the game, it frees up Richard Seymour, Willie McGinest, and Tedy Bruschi to make plays, and that's exactly what they did. In the first quarter, Houston had first down and goal at the Patriots 1, and they stuffed them three times and made them take the field goal. In overtime, Houston had first down at the Patriots 40 and then their 35. In each case, one more first down and the Texans could have tried a game-winning field goal. And in each case, the Patriots stopped them (the second time, they even pushed them back) and forced a punt -- the second punt being the last time the Texans had the ball, as the Pats drove down the field for the game winner from Adam. Those names deserve a second mention, so here they are: Ted Washington, Willie McGinest, Richard Seymour, and Tedy Bruschi.

The defensive backs did a great of covering the Texan receivers, knocking down a dozen or more passes with only one pass interference call the entire game. And their coverage often caused QB Tony Banks to throw the ball away or take off running -- both of which played into the Patriots gameplan. Tyrone Poole had an outstanding game, and Ty Law might be the guttiest player I've ever seen. He's got a severe ankle injury and an abdominal strain and no only did he take just about every snap on defense, he was in punt coverage on special teams. It's great to have two "shut down" corners, because it allows Belichick and Romeo Crennel the freedom to scheme to their heart's delight with the other nine guys. Worked out pretty well yesterday. Houston had only 169 yards, and if they hadn't had a short field three times, they probably wouldn't have scored a single TD.

The offense was really up and down, which might sound strange given that they gained 472 yards. But they had three critical turnovers -- well, okay, Tom Brady had three critical turnovers. His first INT and his fumble were inexcusable -- he knows better than to throw over the middle late and should have taken better care of the ball on the fumble. He was hit just as he released the ball on his second INT, so that isn't his fault. As in the Washington game, Brady tried to do too much too often, and it kept blowing up in his face. Fortunately for him, this time they won. There were the usual number of dropped passes (Graham had two, I believe Branch had one), and Bethel Johnson had a very good game, with 5 catches and a forced fumble. But Graham came through with two clutch catches (the TD to send the game to overtime and a 33 yarder during overtime that changed field position in the Patriots favor).

But the offensive star of the game was Kevin Faulk. Not only did he have almost 200 yards in total offense, but how he ran and the way he set up blockers on the screen passes was more effective. He let the play develop and got a ton of extra yards because of it. He just seems more confident overall, and with good reason. He seems to be completely over his wrist injury, and hasn't fumbled in a long time (something that plagued him early in his career), so we can expect him to be the featured back for the forseeable future. The offensive line did a pretty good job of pass protection and run blocking. Houston has a lot of talented defenders, and they run blitzes from just about anywhere -- and for all that, sometimes Brady had 5 - 8 seconds to throw, unusual for an NFL QB. So like I said, a bit of an up and down performance.

My mother always said, "If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all." And there's nothing nice to say about the special teams, so I'm skipping them for this email.

Oh, and if you want to know why Belichick is considered a genius, here's one example. Of the game-tying TD pass to Graham, one reporter asked him if he was surprised at his good fortune on the play and in the game. He responded that he wasn't surprised because not only do they practice that play all the time, but they practice getting the ball to the receiver *when he's covered* as well. He said they found the best way to beat the defender in that case is to throw the ball to the left and up high because that's the most difficult adjustment to make -- and since that's where Brady threw it, he expected the pass to be completed and the game to go into overtime. So he's planning contingencies on top of contingencies -- I doubt a 10 percent of the head coaches insist on practicing the play with an open AND a covered receiver every week. That's why the Pats are 9-2. Not luck, not good fortune, just preparation and more preparation.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "You know, it's strange to say it with five games left, but if the Pats win the next two games, they win the division. Because if they win them both, the best Miami can finish and the worst we can finish is 11-5, but we will have beaten the Dolphins twice so we'd hold the first tie-breaker. I know we should expect more from a 9-2 team, but it's nice to know they're headed for a first-round home game at the very worst."

Keep the faith,

- Scott